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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Pandemic - WAVE TWO

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Albert View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Pandemic - WAVE TWO
    Posted: May 25 2020 at 1:53pm

No prob with the U.S. economy reopening.  It needs to happen, especially now that summer has arrived.  

It is also VERY reckless and foolish not to prepare for WAVE TWO in the fall.   And this is another issue I have with Trump.  What does it hurt to restart economy and to also prepare for wave two at the same time when it is an imminent event?  What is the issue in doing both at once?     Trump is truly an inept leader to disregard wave two that is imminent and not preparing to keep the economy going - at the same time.   

This shouldn't be construed as a Trump-bashing post, but he does run the U.S., so have to call these things as they take place.  


    

    

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Pixie View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 25 2020 at 2:53pm

You haven’t heard these Republican governors gearing up for the onslaught of cases coming their way right now. Montgomery for example,not a bed to be had. Is it blind obedience or do they believe their own rhetoric? Either way it is going to be a disaster of epic proportion.
When all these states blow I fear we are going to see a modern day Grapes of Wrath,a biological exodus of people scattering far and wide.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 25 2020 at 3:02pm

I have a cousin who works as a nurse in the NHS in the UK and she told me a few days ago that the second wave has started there. They were seeing a sudden large increase in the numbers of patients at the hospital she works on. She works in the covid 19 wards.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 25 2020 at 4:57pm

I can't see how it's a 2nd wave,the first wave isn't over yet.....

Its just a continuation of the on going pandemic,

Which by the behaviour of some of the people in the World

Is Just going to go on and on, 

The hopes of a vaccine and herd immunity are far and away....

And many many more sickness  deaths....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 25 2020 at 5:49pm

Originally posted by Pixie Pixie wrote:

You haven’t heard these Republican governors gearing up for the onslaught of cases coming their way right now. Montgomery for example,not a bed to be had. Is it blind obedience or do they believe their own rhetoric? Either way it is going to be a disaster of epic proportion.
When all these states blow I fear we are going to see a modern day Grapes of Wrath,a biological exodus of people scattering far and wide.

The question is, will they migrate to the resources and greater infection, or to nowhereland where infections might be lower?

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Pixie View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 27 2020 at 7:16pm

Last Updated on 


In this article we explore the way the COVID-19 pandemic was born and, hidden, spread globally. Learning from this very early process, we deduce initial key elements and indicators to monitor and control the COVID-19 second wave and recurrent ones.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 28 2020 at 6:39am

Every single day I thank my lucky stars I live in NY.  

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2020 at 2:03am

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/visual-tool-gauge-risk-second-coronavirus-wave[/url] linking reopening with R0 can give some indication of "second wave"-far from perfect-South Korea numbers go up sharply-[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200529002254320?section=science/medicine[/url] ;

SEOUL, May 29 (Yonhap) -- South Korea reported more than 50 new virus cases for the second consecutive day Friday, all in the Seoul metropolitan area due to logistics center-tied cluster infections, putting renewed strain on health authorities to contain further spread in the densely populated region.

South Korea reported 58 more additional COVID-19 cases, raising the total caseload to 11,402, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). Of them, 55 were local infections.

Friday's tally marks a drop from the nearly two-month high of 79 the previous day.

All new infections were reported in Seoul and the surrounding area, home to half of the country's population of more than 50 million, putting health authorities on edge.

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-best-advance-indicator-if-second-wave-coronavirus-coming[/url];

To wit, a team of researchers from Yale University in New Haven, Conn. published a paper earlier this month on their studies of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the sewage in the Greater New Haven area. In the abstract of their report, the team determined that "when adjusted for the time lag, the virus RNA concentrations were highly correlated with the COVID-19 epidemiological curve (R2 =0.99) and local hospital admissions (R2 =0.99). SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were a seven-day leading indicator ahead of compiled COVID-19 testing data and led local hospital admissions data by three days."

The search for a reliable leading indicator is critical for developing an effective policy response, since the most closely watched data (reports on the number of newly diagnosed cases) is a lagging indicator, since tests typically aren't run on an individual until symptoms of the virus have already started to appear.

Scientists have already proven that SARS-CoV-2 RNA is present in the human waste of COVID-19 patients. That then seeps into the wastewater in a given community's collection system. An analysis of RNA concentrations in waste can, according to the researchers, "provide information on the prevalence and dynamics of infection for entire populations."

By analyzing wastewater from a sewage plant that serves a four-municipality area (pop ~200,000 residents), the researchers applied several data processing techniques to smooth the data and allow for fair comparisons between the sewage data and data collected by the local hospital system in New Haven.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2020 at 2:36am

Seriously?  What will they think of next to test?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2020 at 3:37am

There have been several threads already about testing sewage to estimate the levels of the Sars-Cov2 virus.  This seems to be a good move as the fecal - oral route is one way that this spreads.   Police already do similar testing to estimate drug use in an area.  


For a quick response (to give approximate figures) this seems an easy and cheaper way to go than to (re)test everyone in an area.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 29 2020 at 9:08am

I agree with Carbon - I think what we’re seeing is a spike in the first wave as countries reopen, and the public become complacent/resistant to social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing. The second wave will probably come about as a result of a major change in the virus or the conditions it can spread in (the onset of the cold/flu season, or a combination of the two. There is nothing to suggest that there won’t be a second wave - the virus is unlikely to mutate past us like H5N1 seems to have done in the coming months, there are still plenty of susceptible hosts, and no vaccine/treatment exists. With everything in place, why wouldn’t there be a second wave? Given the consequences and the administration’s refusal to acknowledge or prepare for it, it’s clear that it’s now up to individuals to look after their own. The federal government won’t be there for you if this goes south.

Prep on, guys. 


 

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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