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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Population Reduction?

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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    Posted: August 08 2021 at 3:59am

Will Covid-19 lead to a world-wide population reduction?

This pandemic is not a slate-wiper, but I am wondering if we will see a global population reduction, or will it just make a dent in the increase in population?


If one follows the official figures then the answer is NO.

According to Worldometers the world population in 2020 grew by 1.05% or by over 81,300,000 souls. The current official death rate is just over 4,300,000 dead or 0,055%, and the highest country rate (Peru) is under 0.6%.  

From other estimates it seems that the real figures in many places could be up to 10 times the official ones.  Halving that estimate (to be on the safe side) would give about 20,000,000 deaths. This is still only a quarter of what the annual growth rate is.  So it is looking as if at this time the answer is again NO.


I suppose what I am left wondering is if in a few years the indirect deaths from the damage caused by Long-Covid will tip the world population into decline.  I think this might be possible (but am not sure).  What are your thoughts?


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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2021 at 6:23am

On the short term if there is global population-pandemic related-reduction it may be due to people not starting a family. So more indirect...

With Delta, other new variants-and consequences of a more serious pandemic-global social unrest-I would not rule out global population reduction...Also-we do not have good statistics for most countries on pandemic related deaths. NL put its numbers at over 30,000-old people dying from Covid are NOT in the under 18,000 official NL Covid statistics...Belgium has over 25,000 Covid deaths...that number may be more realistic...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2021 at 2:07pm

Any population reduction is more likely to come from the long term effects of the covid vaccines on the reproductive health of young people. There is an excellent TED talk out there about home population reduction is only possible if first the number of babies being born is massively reduced. This is one way to achieve that.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2021 at 3:01pm

[QUOTE=KiwiMum]

Any population reduction is more likely to come from the long term effects of the covid vaccines on the reproductive health of young people. There is an excellent TED talk out there about home population reduction is only possible if first the number of babies being born is massively reduced. This is one way to achieve that.

[/QUOTE

sorry I think I have to disagree most strongly......

Take care all 😷😉


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2021 at 4:13pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

[QUOTE=KiwiMum]

Any population reduction is more likely to come from the long term effects of the covid vaccines on the reproductive health of young people. There is an excellent TED talk out there about home population reduction is only possible if first the number of babies being born is massively reduced. This is one way to achieve that.

[/QUOTE

sorry I think I have to disagree most strongly......

Take care all 😷😉


Well we'll see in about 10 years time....... 

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2021 at 4:16pm

BBC News: Why some people don't want a Covid-19 vaccine.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210720-the-complexities-of-vaccine-hesitancy

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2021 at 4:20pm

So what are the long term effects of getting Covid19......??

In 10 years ??

What does your crystal ball say on that one ....

Lol 😆

Take care all 😷😉💉





Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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ViQueen24 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 08 2021 at 6:08pm

I think we're going to be looking at deaths from the effects of Covid on lungs, heart, and brain, not to mention side effects we have no way of dreaming of currently.  I have no reason to doubt the repeating of history in just that way...

It is not my impression that we have any significant reason to worry about the vaccine.  As a matter of fact, I think medical science will use the knowledge they have gained from the Covid vax and mRNA technology to develop alot of treatments for cancer, dementia, and many other diseases and conditions.

Now if we could only get up off our duffs and figure out a solution to global climate change...

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 09 2021 at 12:59am

Reduction in births might be a significant factor, if it continues.  I suppose having to isolate at home with children might put off more than a few families!     

I read that in a number of places deaths from drugs overdoses and suicides increased during lock-down times, but the numbers are so small they will not make much difference to overall populations.    I suppose there are are so many health factors that experts can be arguing for years over which are contributing factors.   But the lung damage that has been reported via scans (even asymptomatic cases has shown serious damage) could become a major contributor to early deaths.


I fully expect life expectancy to fall in most 'developed' countries, and I think there will be countries where we might see significant population reductions.  Russia is one country where I am expecting to see significant population declines (it's official death rate from Covid-19 is about twice what Worldometers recorded for the population growth in 2020, and most estimates using excess deaths put the real rate many times higher than the official one).  



Ps. In a couple of weeks the Population Reference Bureau https://www.prb.org/ comes out with its Annual Data Sheet for world population at mid-2021, so I will be studing that to see what early clues as to the effect of Corvid will be. I do not expect too much change, as the official death toll for 2021 is set to be over twice that of 2020.


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