Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
Possible H2H? |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Posted: April 04 2013 at 3:44pm |
There Is A Worrying Sign That The New Bird Flu May Spread Between HumansHer mask reads, "Against Noxious," in Chinese. The person had close contact with one of the five patients that have died from this new bird flu. If this person, who lives in Changhai, does have the H7N9 virus, he could be the 15th case in China. He is the first of the 400 close contacts that the WHO is monitoring for show signs of infection. Science writer Ed Yong said on Twitter that this news is a "potential catastrophe." We agree. This
could mean that the virus has the ability to spread between humans
directly, making it much deadlier, especially because humans don't have a
natural immunity to this strain of virus, because it usually can't infect us. |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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jdljr1
Admin Group Joined: June 05 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1621 |
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I recommend against any panicking. remember that even SARS at its peak still burned out after successfully infecting hundreds of people, and the Contagion or Omega Man scenario, never happened. We at the forum specialise most of all in the issue of Being Prepared. So prepare, do not panick. Remember that virus burnout, or as with H1N1, reduction in lethality, has usually been the rule. JUST PREPARE.
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John L
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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You're right John, and good advice. But considering that two of the deceased in Shanghai somehow just now came back to life and started attacking people and eating their flesh, well, this doesn't look good.
Bad joke, lol.
I wouldn't worry too much as well. Even in the worst scenario it will be over in 6 months and we'll be fine.
Let's sit back and see what happens. Could just burnout and not go beyond limited h2h.
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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Also keep in mind, that it's a "suspected" case of H7N9 as the person is showing flu symptoms. No confirmation as of yet.
The next couple of days could get interesting.
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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I agree, Albert. "Flu symptoms" covers a multitude of things, and without a positive diagnosis we should be wary of jumping to conclusions. I added the question mark to the topic title because, as yet, we have no confirmation. And you're right - with the way this is progressing, the next few days should be interesting.
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Tonino
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 03 2013 Location: Vietnam Status: Offline Points: 102 |
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Hi Jack,
For me who is in Vietnam right now, I do not think the right adjective is " interesting". Cheers. |
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Tonino
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 03 2013 Location: Vietnam Status: Offline Points: 102 |
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All Right now. To the hell with conventions!
What do you think guys? Seeing the evolution of the situation what should I do? Staying here in Vietnam keep on working, with the eventuality of great danger because of the proximity of the source of the eventual pandemic? With little, or no way to protect myself and my family, with high density of population here, bad health habits and uncaring people and authorities? Or come back as soon as possible in France, where I have more ways to protect myself, by staying in my cabin in the woods, and starting to stock provisions there. Looking at the situation as of today, what would be the most wise way to act? Please share your views mates. |
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jacksdad
Executive Admin Joined: September 08 2007 Location: San Diego Status: Offline Points: 47251 |
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Hi Tonino - please don't take offense at my use of the word "interesting". If you read my posts you'll see that I don't take the threat of a pandemic - or indeed the loss of life associated with it - lightly.
As to your question about heading back to France - while it seems that you may be better prepared to ride out a pandemic there, wherever you live at the onset you can be sure it will show up in your neighborhood eventually. The global nature of such an event means you can't escape it, and while a minor pandemic is eminently survivable, even a first world healthcare system would be overwhelmed by a major pandemic akin to something like the 1918 outbreak. Without knowing what we're facing (if it turns out to be anything at all) it's impossible to give any kind of responsible advice on that one other than to wait and see how it unfolds. And I'm Jacks dad |
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"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
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Tonino
V.I.P. Member Joined: April 03 2013 Location: Vietnam Status: Offline Points: 102 |
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Good afternoon Jacksdad,
No worries my friend, i fully understood what you meant, and the way you meant it. Its just that i feel very concerned about this subject right now, and so far from my home town, so near from the matter, and knowing how things are conducted in Vietnam and in general Asia countries, I take things very seriously; May be I should just come down.. thing is that I always want to forecast events, and do, not the perfect acting because it is impossible, but at least the most appropriated and smart moves relating to any situation.. Good day bro |
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EdwinSm,
Moderator Joined: April 03 2013 Status: Offline Points: 24065 |
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Regarding Jacksdad's use of the word "interesting", although it does not normally mean it, it can be used to denote something really aweful and horrible. In this use there is the understanding that it refers to:
The Chinese curse which says "May you live in interesting times". Privately I have tracked the Sars out break and the H1N1 outbreak - both of which had potential for wide spread disaster, but instead they burnt out/mutated to milder cases. As has been said there is not enough information available to know what to do. If I was in your case I would probably stay put for now BUT work on plans of how to get back home as quickly as possible, or in case things move too fast (no flights available) making sure I would have reasonable stocks to survive some weeks without needing to go out shopping. But in the end this is YOUR decision. |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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The patient tested negative in the possible h2h case.
"A person in Shanghai who developed flu symptoms after coming into close contact with a patient who died of the virus tested negative for H7N9, city authorities said." |
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carbon20
Moderator Joined: April 08 2006 Location: West Australia Status: Offline Points: 65816 |
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hi all
me been watching and waiting for the "slatewiper" for a long time so i find any new event "interesting"because it may or may not be said "slatewiper"if it is a major pandemic with the right conditions that make it the "slatewiper" which means it will have the potential to kill 97% of the world human population no matter where you are it will be the "luck of the draw "if you survive so until it is proven to be human to human i will find it interesting , as an aside this virus is resistant to Tamiflu and Relenza i find this a bit scary this could be the perfect "storm " i await with "interest" !!!! |
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖
Marcus Aurelius |
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Suzi16
V.I.P. Member Joined: December 01 2012 Status: Offline Points: 55 |
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SARS did not burn out on its own. They fought it like crazy.
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waterboy
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H7N9 watch) WHO says killer virus not spreading between people
(23 mins ago) There is no proof that the killer H7N9 bird flu virus is being transmitted between people in China, the World Health Organization said, despite several members of a family falling ill in Shanghai. China announced just over a week ago that the virus had been found in humans for the first time, and the number of confirmed cases has since risen to 21, with six deaths. “Although we do not know the source of infection, at this time there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission,’’ Michael O'Leary, the WHO's representative in China, told a news conference in Beijing, AFP reports. Concerns over human transmission arose after the two sons of an elderly man in Shanghai, one of the earliest deaths from H7N9, developed respiratory illness, one of them dying, but the virus was later ruled out by Chinese authorities. The WHO confirmed that government finding today. “The family cluster raises the possibility of human-to-human transmission, but two of the cases in that cluster have not been laboratory confirmed,'' O'Leary said. “There is no other evidence pointing toward sustained transmission among people,'' he added. Four of the deaths have been in the commercial hub Shanghai, with the other two in the neighboring province of Zhejiang. O'Leary praised China's transparency on the outbreak, following criticism the announcement of the initial deaths was too slow. “We are very satisfied and pleased with the level of information shared and we believe we have been kept fully updated on the situation,'' he said. The first deaths from the virus were not reported by authorities until three weeks after they occurred. Chinese officials said the delay in announcing the results was because it took time to determine the cause of the illness. China faced condemnation a decade ago on accusations it covered up the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which eventually killed about 800 people globally |
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Albert
Admin Joined: April 24 2006 Status: Offline Points: 47746 |
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It's not yet, but it's set to mutate, and it could evolve very quickly and achieve sustained transmission virtually over night. Hence; how a pandemic begins.
This is why it's different than h5n1 with regard to the mutations they discovered with h7n9. It's close to making the leap to humans, too close. That's my guess as to why they're considering a vaccine right now, within the first week. I don't believe they ever considered a vaccine for h5 as the mutations were so far away and the vaccine would do no good. The h7n9 is very similar to a human flu and a vaccine now could offer "some" protection, and in a terrible situation like that, "any' protection or chance to survive it might be our best play. It's almost a move of desperation by the CDC, and is somewhat telling, but also wise given the circumstances and how high the stakes are right now. |
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