CRS, DrPH wrote:
WHO H7N9 Situation updates
Printed From: Avian Flu Talk
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Forum Description: (Latest Breaking News)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=30625
Printed Date: May 01 2024 at 9:08am
Topic: WHO H7N9 Situation updates
Posted By: Suzi
Subject: WHO H7N9 Situation updates
Date Posted: January 11 2014 at 1:01pm
| http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/avian_influenza/archive/en/index.html - http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/avian_influenza/archive/en/index.html |
Replies:
Posted By: nc_girl
Date Posted: January 11 2014 at 5:34pm
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this link is now talking about h5n1. |
Posted By: Mahshadin
Date Posted: January 12 2014 at 8:07am
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Global Alert and Response (GAR) Alert & Response Operations Diseases Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network Biorisk Reduction Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update Disease outbreak news 10 January 2014 - The Centre for Health Protection, China, Hong Kong SAR, notified WHO on 8 January 2014 of an additional laboratory-confirmed case of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. The patient is a 65-year-old man with underlying illness. He became ill on 3 January and was admitted to hospital on 7 January with a chest infection and transferred to the intensive care unit later that day. He tested positive for avian influenza A(H7N9) virus on 8 January. The patient is currently under isolation and in a critical condition. The patient had travelled to Shenzhen, Guangdong province, with a family member from 1 to 2 January. They passed by a wet market in Shenzhen on 1 January. In Hong Kong, the patient did not enter a wet market, but may have passed a market entrance in the mornings. The patient’s close contact has remained asymptomatic and is under quarantine for 10 days since the last contact with the patient. Contact tracing for other contacts, including hospital patients as well as healthcare workers and relevant hospital visitors, are under way. The infection is considered to have occurred outside Hong Kong. The investigation is ongoing. On 9 January 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China notified WHO of an additional laboratory-confirmed case of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. The patient is a 51 year old woman from Jiaxing City in Zhejiang Province. She became ill on 28 December and was admitted to the hospital on 6 January. She is currently in critical condition. The source of infection is still under investigation. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_01_10_h7n9/en/index.html - Here Is Latest WHO Latest Update Link ------------- "In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." G Orwell |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 12 2014 at 8:44am
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Two more cases reported on Saturday http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/world/2014/01/12/china-reports-one-more-h7n9-bird-flu-death/ |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 12 2014 at 8:51am
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http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140112000071&cid=1103 Sorry... Correct limk above |
Posted By: coyote
Date Posted: January 13 2014 at 4:31am
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World Health Organization Global Alert and Response (GAR) Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update 13 JANUARY 2014 - On 10 January 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China notified WHO of 6 additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, including 1 death. Details are as follows: [link to www.who.int] ------------- Long time lurker since day one to Member. |
Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: January 15 2014 at 6:43pm
| Does anyone know the total and CFR? |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: January 17 2014 at 8:47am
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Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update Disease outbreak news 17 JANUARY 2014 - On 15 January 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China notified WHO of four additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Details of the cases are as follows: A 35 year old man from Shanghai who became ill on 1 January and was admitted to hospital on 12 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 41 year old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 5 January and was admitted to hospital on 9 January and then transferred to another hospital on 12 January. He is currently in a critical condition. A 48 year old man from Foshan City, Guandong Province, who became ill on 2 January and was admitted to hospital on 12 January. He is currently in a critical condition. A 55 year old man from Dongguan City, Guandong Province, who became ill on 1 January and wrestrictions to hospital on 9 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. The source of infection is still under investigation. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese government continues to take the following measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_01_17/en/index.html |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: January 20 2014 at 10:46am
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20 JANUARY 2014 - The National Health and Family Planning Commission of China notified WHO of 16 additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Details of the cases notified on 17 January 2014 are as follows: A 54 years old man from Shanghai City who became ill on 3 January. He visited a hospital and was admitted to another hospital on 13 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 66 year old man from Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province who became ill on 7 January. He was admitted to hospital on 11 January and was transferred to another hospital on 15 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 54 year old man from Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province who became ill on 6 January. He was admitted to hospital on 9 January. He is currently in a critical condition. A 62 year old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province who became ill on 4 January. He was admitted to hospital on 11 January and was transferred to another hospital on 15 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. Details of the cases notified on 18 January 2014 are as follows: A 35 year old man from Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province who became ill on 7 January. He was admitted to hospital on 11 January and was transferred to another hospital on 14 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 72 year old woman from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province who became ill on 9 January. She was admitted to hospital on 15 January and was transferred to another hospital 16 January. She is currently in critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 69 year old man from Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province who became ill on 13 January. He was admitted to hospital and was then transferred to another hospital on 17 January. He is currently in a critical condition. A 38 year old woman from Jinjiang City, Fujian Province who became ill on 9 January. She was admitted to hospital on 15 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 54 year old man from Ningde City, Fujian Province, who became ill on 8 January. He was admitted the hospital on 12 January and was transferred to another hospital on 16 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. Details of the cases notified on 20 January 2014 as follows: A 5 year old girl from Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province who became ill on 14 January. She was admitted to hospital on 15 January. She is currently in a stable condition. An 83 year old woman from Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province who became ill on 2 January. She was admitted to hospital on 10 January and was transferred to another hospital on 16 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 62 year old man from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 6 January. He visited a hospital on 7 January and was admitted to another hospital on 17 January. He is currently in a stable condition. A 55 year old man from Shishi City, Fujian Province who became ill on 11 January. He was admitted to hospital on 16 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 53 year old man from Zhuji City, Zhejiang Province who became ill on 10 January. He was admitted to hospital and was transferred to another hospital on 17 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 54 year old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 5 January. He was admitted to hospital and was transferred to another hospital on 16 January. He is currently in critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 61 year old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province who became ill on 10 January. He was admitted to a hospital on 10 January and was transferred to another hospital on 12 January. He is currently in critical condition. The source of infection is still under investigation. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese government continues to take the following measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_01_20bis/en/index.html - Link |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: January 20 2014 at 3:26pm
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Reuters January 20, 2014, 4: 06 PM WHO confirms 23 more cases of H7N9 bird flu in China LONDON Another 23 people in China have been infected with the H7N9 strain of bird flu in recent days, the World Health Organisation (WHO) said on Monday, adding to at least 24 new cases last week and confirming a fresh surge in the virus. Among the new cases, reported from several different provinces of China, was a 38-year-old man who died on Jan. 9 and a five-year-old girl from Guangdong province who became ill on Jan. 14 and is now stable in the hospital. Many of the other new patients were either in a serious or critical condition in hospitals, the WHO said. Several had reported recent exposure to poultry or poultry markets, but the WHO said the source of infections was still under investigation. The H7N9 bird flu virus emerged in March last year and has so far infected at least 199 people in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, killing 52 of them, according to an update from the WHO's spokesman Gregory Hartl. Several clusters of cases in people who had close contact with an infected person have been reported in China, but WHO reiterated on Monday that “so far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission". Hartl told Reuters last week that the United Nations health agency had noted the recent rapid increase in human H7N9 infections and was keeping a watchful eye. “So far we haven't seen anything that causes us to change our risk assessment,” he said. The WHO's assessment is that “the current likelihood of community-level spread ... is considered to be low.” Experts say the Northern Hemisphere's winter flu season is probably largely to blame for a significant increase in the number of cases of human H7N9 infection in recent weeks after they dwindled to almost nothing in July and August of 2013. But they have cautioned that public health authorities and doctors must be on alert for any signals that the more widely circulating virus might be adapting or mutating to become easily transmissible between people. ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: January 20 2014 at 3:49pm
| I'd like to see some graphs on the data. Wasn't there an Australian site that used a boatload of graphs? |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: January 20 2014 at 4:04pm
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Virology Down Under ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: January 22 2014 at 9:11am
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22 JANUARY 2014 - On 20 January 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China notified WHO of five additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, including two deaths. Details of the cases are as follows: A 31 year old man from Shanghai City who became ill on 11 January. He visited a hospital on 15 January and was admitted to hospital on 17 January and died on 18 January. A 77 year old man from Shanghai City who became ill on 10 January. He visited hospital on 14 January and was transferred to another hospital on 17 January and died on 18 January. The patient had a history of exposure to poultry. A 71 year old woman from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 12 January. She visited hospital on 15 January and transferred to another hospital on 18 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 63 year old man from Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 12 January. He visited hospital on 17 January and transferred to another hospital on 18 January. He is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 55 year old man from Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 11 January. He visited hospital on 17 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. The source of infection is still under investigation. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese government continues to take the following measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_01_22/en/index.html |
Posted By: Elver
Date Posted: January 22 2014 at 9:08pm
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There have been 5 small family clusters, but no sustained H2H. One or more of these clusters had the potential for H2H. In August a woman carried her sick father to the hospital and contracted it herself. There is no sign of sustained H2H as of yet although the WHO is reporting "sporadic H2H". China had 134 cases last year with 44 deaths or 33.5%. So far this year the number is already up to 40. We've been down this path already with H5N1 and that isn't easily transmissible H2H yet. H7N9 is resistant to Tamiflu or Relenza. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: January 23 2014 at 4:47am
http://www.wpro.who.int/entity/china/topics/h7n9_influenza/faq_20140117/en/index.html - Avian influenza A (H7N9) in China
http://www.wpro.who.int/entity/china/topics/h7n9_influenza/faq_20140117/en/index.html">
BEIJING, 22 January 2014 – As of 20 January, the World Health
Organization (WHO) has been officially notified by the China health
authorities of more than forty additional laboratory-confirmed cases of
human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus, since 1 January
2014. There is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. 
WHO China
Given the population movement prior to Chinese New Year and potentially unpredictable behaviour of influenza viruses, continued vigilance and close monitoring are needed. WHO’s advice to the public is to continue to practice good hygiene and handle food properly. WHO does not recommend any travel or trade restriction. FUNNY WHEN THEY SAY NO EVIDENCE OF H2H SUSTAINED TRANSMISSION, so where all the people getting it from??or is there sporadic H2H and if so what does that mean ?? OR THE ALMIGHTY DOLLAR MIGHT BE TALKING ,they lost 9 billion in a few months ago because of the outbreak then ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: January 23 2014 at 7:52am
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23 JANUARY 2014 - On 22 January 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China notified WHO of 10 additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Details of the cases are as follows: A 71 year old man from Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, who became ill on 10 January. He was admitted to hospital on 16 January and is in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 57 year old man from Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 8 January. He was admitted to hospital on 10 January and is in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 70 year old man from Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 10 January. He was admitted to hospital on 14 January, transferred to another hospital on 17 January, and is in a serious condition. A 49 year old male from Hangzhou City of Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 13 January. He was admitted to hospital on 17 January, transferred to another hospital on 19 January, and is in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 39 year old woman from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 13 January. She was admitted to hospital on 19 January and is in a serious condition. A 59 year old woman from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 13 January. She was admitted to hospital on 19 January and is in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry markets. A 76 year old man from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 9 January. He was admitted to hospital on 20 January and is in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry markets. A 53 year old man from Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 9 January. He was admitted to hospital on 12 January, transferred to another hospital on 16 January, and is in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 71 year old man from Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 31 December 2013. He was admitted to hospital on the same day, transferred to another hospital on 8 January, and is in a critical condition. A 63 year old woman from Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 9 January. He was admitted to hospital on 13 January, transferred to another hospital on 18 January, and is in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. The source of infection is still under investigation. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese government continues to take the following measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_01_23/en/index.html |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: January 23 2014 at 10:09am
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Personally, I don't buy all of these "exposure to poultry" stories. When healthcare workers are coming down with the virus, it is H2H. I doubt if the deceased Shanghai physician spent much time buying live chickens at the wet market! Limited H2H transmission, perhaps, but a serious situation. Just a few mutations, or a ressortment with another circulating flu strain could unleash this one. Forget about H5N1, that bug doesn't seem to want to evolve. In the USA, our healthcare system is trained and ready for any pandemic strain, although the emphasis has always been on H5N1 preparation (misguided in my opinion). However, I don't think that a viable vaccine exists in any useful quantity, so we will have to shelter in place if this jumps the Pacific. Stay tuned, if we are lucky, this will burn itself out in China. I'm not feeling lucky lately.
------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: Medclinician2013
Date Posted: January 23 2014 at 10:29am
The virus h7n9 has mutated. I got this search data but the link is down.https://www.smartbrief.com/12/10/13/h7n9-mutation-confers-antiviral-resistance - H7N9 mutation confers antiviral resistance | SmartBriefA mutation has made the H7N9
avian influenza virus more resistant to antiviral drugs, yet it is no
less transmissible, according to new research. Often, antiviral
resistance is coupled with a loss in the ability to spread. Meanwhile,
the World Health Organization has reported four new ... comment: a monthly report on the situation by WHO is very poor tracking of a potential pandemic. Chinese researchers have discovered mutations in the new strain of avian influenza A, known as H7N9, and have found that the virus has the ability to spread from human to human, the latest issue of China's Southern Metropolis Weekly reported. comment: The few cases being reported do not reflect an accurate count of the infections. I have spoken to people from China who have been through Hong Kong and many people are sick as it spills downward and sets off the detection radar while the Chinese continue to under report the cases. This is not a new issue and WHO at this point will not tell us there is a Pandemic until it is too late to do anything about it. H7N9 is not going to go away. With the poor sanitation, living with birds and pigs, and obvious human to human transmission being covered by a claim it is only from poultry, it is a real threat. Med ------------- Medclinician - not if but when - original |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 23 2014 at 10:35am
That was like reading something I would write about the current situation - absolutely couldn't agree more  ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 23 2014 at 10:37am
|
The same applies to your post, Med. Seems a lot of us are on the same page. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 23 2014 at 9:00pm
| Just wonder when national leadership will wake up and read the "same pages"? |
Posted By: Diligent
Date Posted: January 24 2014 at 2:58pm
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Amid the reported H7N9 resistance or susceptibility issue's regarding the influenza virus inhibitor medicines, Tamiflu and Relenza. The latest report found on the CDC website indicates, that as of September 2013 : H7N9 is ' likely susceptible ' to Tamiflu or Relenza.
I hope the CDC report is correct.
Diligent
|
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: January 25 2014 at 4:55pm
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Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: January 25 2014 at 5:47pm
| I cannot find this. The last report I see is Jan 23 that lists 10 reported on Jan 22. These seem to be a different 10 according to ages, gender etc. |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: January 27 2014 at 7:55am
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Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update 27 JANUARY 2014 - The National Health and Family Planning Commission of China has notified WHO of nine additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Details of the cases notified on 26 January 2014 are as follows: A 49 year old man from Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 16 January. He was admitted to hospital on 20 January and transferred to other hospital on 23 January. He is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 60 year old woman farmer from Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 19 January. She was admitted to hospital on 23 January. She is currently in a serious condition. A 48 year old woman farmer from Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 20 January. She was admitted to hospital on 23 January and is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 57 year old farmer from Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, who became ill on 16 January. He was admitted to hospital on 19 January and transferred to other hospital on 22 January. He is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry market. A 46 year old woman farmer from Quanzhou City, Fujian Province, who became ill on 18 January. She was admitted to hospital on 22 January and is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 82 year old man from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 11 January. He was admitted to hospital on 21 January and is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry market. Details of the cases notified on 27 January 2014 are as follows: A 76 year-old farmer from Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, who became ill on 18 January. He was admitted to hospital on 21 January and is currently in a serious condition. A 40 year-old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 19 January. He was admitted to hospital on 23 January and was transferred to another hospital on 25 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 65 year-old, man from Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 16 January. He was admitted to hospital on 22 January and was transferred to another hospital on 23 January. He is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. The source of infection is still under investigation. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese government continues to take the following measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_01_27/en/index.html - Source |
Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: January 27 2014 at 3:54pm
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Current H7N9 wave rivals last spring's case total Filed Under: Avian Influenza (Bird Flu); H7N9 Avian Influenza Lisa Schnirring | Staff Writer | CIDRAP News | Jan 27, 2014 China's agriculture ministry said tests showed no H7N9 in farm poultry, but Hong Kong reported the virus in chickens imported from a mainland farm. China's steady rise in H7N9 avian flu cases continued over the past 3 days, with 14 new cases from five provinces, as the latest test results in poultry showed a conflicting picture of the virus on farms, including positive samples found today in birds sent to Hong Kong. The fresh round of infections—coming at a pace matching last year's peak—could soon eclipse last spring's outbreak totals and come as poultry trade and consumption are high in the lead-up to Lunar New Year celebrations later this week. So far 116 cases have been reported since October 2013, a number that could soon reach or exceed the 136 H7N9 illnesses reported during the outbreak's first wave last spring, a number that includes 2 July cases. Though the virus doesn't currently appear to spread easily among humans through the airborne route, China's cultural traditions involving live poultry, where the virus spreads silently, put exposed people at risk for zoonotic infections that can quickly progress to severe pneumonia. Hot spots report more cases, WHO provides more details Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP), in two separate statements, announced initial details for eight new H7N9 illnesses: five reported on Jan 25 and three reported on Jan 26. Five of those patients are from Zhejiang province, two from Jiangsu, and one from Guangdong. In addition, four provinces reported six new cases today, two from Fujian province, two from Guangdong, one from Hunan, and one from Jiangsu. According to provincial statements in Chinese translated and posted by Avian Flu *****, and infectious disease news blog, the patients include three men ages 68, 69, and 72, and three women ages 58, 74, and 77. The 68-year-old man died from his infection, according to the statement from Guangdong province. The World Health Organization (WHO) fleshed out more details about 19 cases reported over the past 4 days, including the ones reported yesterday, according to separate statements from Jan 25 and today. Patient illness onsets range from Jan 10 through Jan 20. All are adults, ranging in age from 23 to 82. Ten are men and nine are women. Eleven of the patients are in critical condition, and eight in serious condition. Investigations so far have found that 10 patients had been exposed to poultry and four had been exposed to live-poultry markets. Over the past few weeks, China has averaged about five to seven new H7N9 cases each day, and the new cases reported over the past 3 days boosts the outbreak total to 252, according to a case list compiled by the ******* infectious disease message board. Less clear is the number of deaths. Most of the patients reported over the last several weeks were said to be in severe or critical condition and may still be hospitalized. China's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) said today that 19 deaths have been reported so far this year among 96 cases reported so far, Xinhua, China's state news agency reported. The unofficial number of deaths is 57. Shu Yuelong, director of the Chinese National Influenza Center, told Xinhua that the case-fatality rate (CFR) ranges from 20% to 30% and that the risk assessment is unchanged, because so far no H7N9 virus mutations that could affect transmissibility have been found, and so far there is no sign of sustained human-to-human transmission. An updated risk assessment from the WHO last week said so far the CFR is not as high as the first wave of infections last spring, and that virus samples from the second wave are similar to the first wave, as well as to strains recommended for H7N9 vaccine development. Mixed signals from H7N9 tests on farms Meanwhile, China's agriculture ministry said today that tests on farms so far this year have found no H7N9 in poultry, according to a separate report from Xinhua. It said no positives were found among 33,400 samples tested from 2,402 sites. It added, though, that eight positive samples were found among samples from live-poultry markets in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. In a report today to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), China's agriculture ministry described H7N9 findings at agricultural markets in Guangdong and Fujian provinces. Of 185 chicken specimens collected in Guanzhou in Guangdong, two from different markets were positive, and 1,200 birds were culled to curb the spread of the virus. In the Fujian province city of Quanzhou, tests on 220 specimens—from chickens, pigeons, ducks, and environments—found only one H7N9-positive result, in an environmental sample. A similar pattern was seen during agriculture ministry testing after the virus was first detected last spring: no positive samples were found on farms, and only a few were detected in poultry market samples. The results are puzzling, because provincial health ministry reports have said several of the patients infected with the virus were farmers, and official reports say large percentage of H7N9 cases were exposed to poultry or visited live-poultry markets. Fueling more questions about H7N9 circulation on China's poultry farms, Hong Kong's government today said it detected the virus in a number of samples from a shipment of live chickens that were imported from a registered poultry farm near the Guangdong province city of Foshan, according to a statement posted on the government's Web site. Hong Kong said it has been testing live poultry imported from the mainland since April 2013, and the findings are the first for H7. In response, the government is closing the agricultural market that received the birds for 21 days and will cull 20,000 poultry that are at the site. Ko Wing-man, MBBS, secretary for food and health, said in a statement that officers will also inspect Hong Kong poultry to ensure that local birds aren't infected with the virus. CDC updates H7N9, H5N1 testing recommendations In other avian developments, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has updated its testing recommendations in separate documents for H7N9 and H5N1. For each virus, the CDC describes testing recommendations based on clinical illness and exposure criteria. For both viruses, CDC recommends testing of severely ill hospitalized patients for whom no other infectious cause has been identified. The exposure criteria for each virus are customized to reflect the geographic areas where the virus has been found. CDC's guidance updates are part of a larger effort to modify the information, based on the latest data, and to combine guidance for the two viruses, when appropriate. For example, the agency recently revised its interim recommendations that combine healthcare infection control information for both H7N9 and H5N1. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: January 27 2014 at 7:29pm
Suzi, you can edit. Clean up the post. This bucket of bolts is not like ft. 
------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 27 2014 at 8:21pm
| I thought this info was helpful. Haven't been around long enough to know why Suzi's post needed cleaning up. Are there rules about posts over a certain length or something? |
Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: January 27 2014 at 8:54pm
| It had big gaps of empty space. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 27 2014 at 10:24pm
| Good to know. Seems a sober and reasonable policy. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: January 28 2014 at 6:12am
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Good job Suzi, thanks. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 28 2014 at 6:52am
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Saskabush - oftentimes when you paste an article you end up with a bunch of ads, links, unrelated pictures or text, or big gaps as Suzi mentioned. Sometimes it takes a little work to make it easier to read. Where to start with this article? So Hong Kong is detecting infected poultry coming from Guandong, but China can't find any. I think we can all draw our own conclusions on that one... Of the 19 cases mentioned, there are none classed as mild infections - eleven are critical and eight are in serious condition. If trends from last year hold, the Chinese government will keep them alive at all costs - for months if necessary - to keep the CFR low, but many of them will succumb to the virus (or secondary infections) eventually anyway. Once the number of serious/critical patients exceeds the number of ICU beds and respirators available to Chinese doctors, we'll begin to see the mortality rate this virus could have if it progresses to a pandemic strain. And now the CDC is nervous enough about both H7N9 and H5N1 that they're recommending testing of symptomatic patients for whom all other tests have come up negative. They know it's going to explode soon, and they're getting everyone ready for the first cases outside of China. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: EdwinSm,
Date Posted: January 28 2014 at 7:32am
Hong Kong is lying to make the People's Republic look bad --- Is that the right conclusion? |
Posted By: Newbie
Date Posted: January 28 2014 at 11:35am
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QUOETE: Meanwhile, China's agriculture ministry said today that tests on farms so far this year have found no H7N9 in poultry, according to a separate report from Xinhua. It said no positives were found among 33,400 samples tested from 2,402 sites. It added, though, that eight positive samples were found among samples from live-poultry markets in Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region. The chickens only catch it when they know they're gonna be sold and eaten...their way of saying they want to continue to live on a clean, disease free farm!!!  ------------- Hoping to survive what mother nature throws at us (for stomping all over her)! |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 28 2014 at 9:33pm
Exactly right. Because the PRC would never lie ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 28 2014 at 9:42pm
LOL  ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: January 29 2014 at 8:12am
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Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update Disease outbreak news 29 JANUARY 2014 - On 27 January 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China notified WHO of six additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus including one death. Details of six new cases are as follows: A 74-year-old woman farmer from Suzhou City, Jiangsu Province, who became ill on 15 January. She was admitted to hospital on 21 January 2014, and was transferred to another hospital on 24 January. She is currently in critical condition and is being given intensive treatment. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 58-year-old woman farmer from Yueyang City, Hunan Province, who became ill on 20 January. She was admitted to hospital on 25 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 69-year-old man from Xiamen City, Fujian Province, who became ill on 17 January. He was admitted to hospital on 24 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 72-year-old woman farmer from Sanming City, Fujian Province, who became ill on 21 January. She was admitted to hospital on 23 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 77-year-old woman farmer, from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill in 17 January. She was admitted to hospital on 23 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry market. A 68-year-old farmer from Jiangmen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 18 January. He was admitted to hospital on 21 January. He died on 25 January. The patient had a history of exposure to poultry. The source of infection is still under investigation. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese government continues to take the following measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. Sporadic human cases While the report of A/H7N9 virus being detected in live poultry imported from the mainland to Hong Kong SAR, shows the potential for the virus to spread through live poultry, at this time there is no indication that international spread of H7N9 has occurred through humans or animals. Further sporadic human cases of A(H7N9) infection are expected in affected and possibly neighbouring areas, especially given expected increases in the trade and transport of poultry associated with the upcoming Lunar New Year. WHO advice WHO advises that travellers to countries with known outbreaks of avian influenza should avoid poultry farms, or contact with animals in live bird markets, or entering areas where poultry may be slaughtered, or contact with any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with faeces from poultry or other animals. Travellers should also wash their hands often with soap and water. Travellers should follow good food safety and good food hygiene practices. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. As always, a diagnosis of infection with an avian influenza virus should be considered in individuals who develop severe acute respiratory symptoms while travelling or soon after returning from an area where avian influenza is a concern. WHO encourages countries to continue strengthening influenza surveillance, including surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and to carefully review any unusual patterns, in order to ensure reporting of human infections under the IHR (2005), and continue national health preparedness actions. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_01_29/en/index.html - Source |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: January 29 2014 at 8:24am
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"The Chinese government continues to take the following measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies." I don't think these measures are working! ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: January 29 2014 at 9:10am
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http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/RiskAssessment_H7N9_21Jan14.pdf?ua=1 - http://www.who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/RiskAssessment_H7N9_21Jan14.pdf?ua=1 graph here |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 29 2014 at 9:05pm
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New wording has been added to the Disease Outbreak Reports from the WHO. This is quite a significant seeing they haven't changed it for two years. I cut and pasted for your viewing pleasure.. Special notes: 1: Reference made to Chinese new year.. This shows that they are concerned. 2: There is a travel warning but not a full blown one. I feel this is quite telling. Its the kind of thing you say when there is a problem but you don't want to create mass panic. Sporadic human casesWhile the report of A/H7N9 virus being detected in live poultry imported from the mainland to Hong Kong SAR, shows the potential for the virus to spread through live poultry, at this time there is no indication that international spread of H7N9 has occurred through humans or animals. Further sporadic human cases of A(H7N9) infection are expected in affected and possibly neighbouring areas, especially given expected increases in the trade and transport of poultry associated with the upcoming Lunar New Year. WHO adviceWHO advises that travellers to countries with known outbreaks of avian influenza should avoid poultry farms, or contact with animals in live bird markets, or entering areas where poultry may be slaughtered, or contact with any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with faeces from poultry or other animals. Travellers should also wash their hands often with soap and water. Travellers should follow good food safety and good food hygiene practices. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. As always, a diagnosis of infection with an avian influenza virus should be considered in individuals who develop severe acute respiratory symptoms while travelling or soon after returning from an area where avian influenza is a concern. WHO encourages countries to continue strengthening influenza surveillance, including surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and to carefully review any unusual patterns, in order to ensure reporting of human infections under the IHR (2005), and continue national health preparedness actions. Current technical information as well as guidance related to avian influenza A(H7N9) can be found at the WHO web site: |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: January 29 2014 at 9:23pm
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Cobber- I agree completely. WHO now tends to be very cautious and measured in their wording. They learned during the SARS epidemic that what they say can cost economies billions. Plus, as Albert would say, look who's doing the talking! ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: January 30 2014 at 2:07pm
Bird Flu Isn’t Just China’s Problem AnymoreWith the Chinese New Year and the Olympics on the horizon, health officials can only watch and wait for a potential pandemic
By http://healthland.time.com/author/apark7/ - Alice Park http://www.twitter.com/aliceparkny - @aliceparkny Jan. 29, 2014 http://healthland.time.com/2014/01/29/h7n9-bird-flu-china-pandemic-influenza/#comments - - Add a Comment
 A security guard closes the gate of a live poultry market in Cheung Sha Wan before officials proceed to cull chickens in Hong Kong on Jan. 28, 2014. As the first human cases of http://healthland.time.com/2013/04/02/bird-flu-is-back-in-china-but-this-time-its-h7n9/ - H7N9 bird flu infection outside of http://topics.time.com/china/ - China begin to emerge—in http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304591604579292490552409728?cb=logged0.08777837781235576&cb=logged0.07978863851167262 - Taiwan and http://healthland.time.com/2013/12/03/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-bird-flu-case-in-hong-kong/ - Hong Kong —health officials around the world are preparing for a potentially perfect storm for a massive flu outbreak. On Thursday, billions of Chinese will be on the move to celebrate the Lunar New Year, creating ripe conditions for the spread of the influenza virus from those already infected. And many of those celebrations will include chickens, the primary carriers of H7N9. In addition, with the Winter Olympics, one of the world’s largest sporting events, just two weeks away, the virus could find the ideal conditions for breaking out. And that means the next plane could bring a pandemic to the U.S. or anywhere else around the world. “The bottom line is the health security of the U.S. is only as strong as the health security of every country around the world,” says Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. “We are all connected by the food we eat, the water the drink and the air we breathe.” MORE: http://healthland.time.com/2014/01/15/many-americans-are-skipping-the-flu-shot/ - Many Americans Are Skipping the Flu Shot So far, the http://who.int/influenza/human_animal_interface/influenza_h7n9/en/index.html - World Health Organization reports that 246 people, mostly in China, have been infected with H7N9 since the virus was first identified last year, and nearly a quarter of them have died. As the first cases outside of the China emerged, http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/28/health/h7n9-bird-flu-china/ - Hong Kong officials ordered the culling of 20,000 chickens from its primary poultry market after one bird tested positive for H7N9, and banned live poultry imports for three weeks from the mainland. In the meantime the Chinese government is http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/china-halts-poultry-trading-h7n9-cases-22259117 - shutting down live poultry sales in its eastern provinces after a spike in cases in recent weeks. Because H7N9 does not make birds sick, it’s nearly impossible to distinguish infected poultry from healthy http://topics.time.com/animals/ - animals , so officials aren’t taking any chances. Shanghai is closing its live poultry markets for three months beginning in February. What concerns health experts is that H7N9 meets two of the three conditions for becoming a pandemic—it is widespread among birds, and it can pass from birds to people. So far, it does not appear to transmit easily from person to person, but if it did, says Frieden, “that would be a big problem. The likelihood of having a pandemic would be much, much higher.” MORE: http://healthland.time.com/2013/08/23/should-you-be-chicken-about-the-new-chicken-flu/ - Should You Be Chicken About the New Chicken Flu? What could push the virus to move from person to person? One worrying possibility—as H7N9 circulates among birds, it could recombine with other influenza strains and find a way to infect humans more efficiently by jumping from host to host. It’s also possible that the H7N9 infecting people could recombine with other strains currently circulating, such as http://topics.time.com/h1n1/ - H1N1 or even http://healthland.time.com/2013/11/22/fda-approves-the-first-dose-stretching-vaccine-for-h5n1-bird-flu/ - H5N1 , another bird flu, and become more virulent as well. Vietnam confirmed that a 52-year old man died this week of H5N1. If H7N9 were to become a pandemic, there is a vaccine that researchers have developed, but Frieden says it’s not very effective and may require more than one dose, which could complicate distribution if there were an urgent need to immunize the population. But other measures for containing outbreaks that have proven effective in the past, including reducing the contact between people and infected animals, implementing social distancing strategies to prevent rapid spread of the virus, and dispensing medications to treat the severely ill, could help to contain an outbreak. “Flu reminds us that we are all connected by the air we breathe,” says Frieden. “There is no way for us to know if a pandemic will happen tomorrow or 10 years from now or never. But what we can do is be even better prepared than we have in the past if it happens.” ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: January 30 2014 at 4:39pm
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Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update Disease outbreak news 30 January 2014 - On 29 January 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission of China notified WHO of 15 additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. Of these 15 cases, 10 are females. The age range among the cases is 31 to 81 years old. The cases are reported from Guangdong (4), Jiangsu (1), Shanghai (1) and Zhejiang Province (9). Thirteen of the cases are currently in a critical or serious condition. Fourteen of the cases are reported to have had exposure to poultry or a live poultry market/environment. Details of 15 additional cases are as follows: A 61-year-old woman cook from Shanghai City who became ill on 6 January. She was admitted to hospital on 20 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 66-year-old woman from Shaoxing City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 15 January. She was admitted to hospital on 17 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 71-year-old woman from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 12 January. She was admitted to hospital on 18 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 71-year- old farmer from Wenzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 13 January. He was admitted to hospital on 19 January, and was transferred to another hospital on 21 January 2014. He is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 59-year- old man from Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 18 January. He was admitted to hospital on 20 January and was transferred to another hospital on 22 January. He is currently in a serious condition. He has a history of exposure to poultry. A 63-years-old woman farmer from Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 11 January. She was admitted to hospital on 15 January and was transferred to another hospital on 18 January 2014. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 34-year- old woman from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 10 January. She was admitted to hospital on 20 January 2014, and was transferred to another hospital on 21 January 2014. She is currently in a critical condition. A 53-year- old man from Huai'an City, Jiangsu Province, who became ill on 22 January. He was admitted to hospital on 26 January. He is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 43-year-old woman farmer from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 23 January. She was admitted to hospital on the same day. She has a mild illness. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. An 81-year-old farmer from Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 21 January. He was admitted to hospital on 23 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 63-year-old woman farmer from Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 22 January. She was admitted to hospital on 24 January and was transferred to another hospital on 26 January 2014. She is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry environment. A 57-year-old man from Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 15 January. He was admitted to hospital on 23 January. He has a mild illness. The patient has a history of exposure to poultry. A 43-year-old woman from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 17 January. She was admitted to hospital on 26 January. She is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 41-year-old woman from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 20 January. She was admitted to hospital on 26 January. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 31-year-old woman from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 16 January. She was admitted to hospital on 23 January 2014. She is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese government continues to take the following measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. Sporadic human cases While the recent report of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus being detected in live poultry imported from the mainland to Hong Kong SAR, shows the potential for the virus to spread through live poultry, at this time there is no indication that international spread of avian influenza A(H7N9) has occurred through humans or animals. Further sporadic human cases of A(H7N9) infection are expected in affected and possibly neighbouring areas, especially given expected increases in the trade and transport of poultry associated with the upcoming Lunar New Year. WHO advice WHO advises that travellers to countries with known outbreaks of avian influenza should avoid poultry farms, or contact with animals in live bird markets, or entering areas where poultry may be slaughtered, or contact with any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with faeces from poultry or other animals. Travellers should also wash their hands often with soap and water. Travellers should follow good food safety and good food hygiene practices. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. As always, a diagnosis of infection with an avian influenza virus should be considered in individuals who develop severe acute respiratory symptoms while travelling or soon after returning from an area where avian influenza is a concern. WHO encourages countries to continue strengthening influenza surveillance, including surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and to carefully review any unusual patterns, in order to ensure reporting of human infections under the IHR (2005), and continue national health preparedness actions. Current technical information as well as guidance related to avian influenza A(H7N9) can be found at the WHO web site: WHO Avian influenza A(H7N9) virus web site Human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus pdf, 194kb 21 January 2014 World - Avian influenza in humans Reducing the risk of influenza virus transmission from animals |
Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: January 30 2014 at 4:41pm
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Jan 1-15 35 new cases Jan 16-30 85 new cases And they can find it in only a small % of poultry. If that is true then humans get it from poultry easily. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 30 2014 at 5:26pm
| This is looking really bad. I hope SVA'S(Nasdaq pharmaceutical co.) vaccine works, and in a hurry.It's time to prepare now. Get your house in order. Food,preps etc. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: January 30 2014 at 7:07pm
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This could get ugly with the Lunar New Year. The poultry markets will explode with sales and people, not to mention limited h2h. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 30 2014 at 9:23pm
Suzi - Hong Kong found it in poultry from Guangdong, but China says it's not there. Someone's lying  ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: January 30 2014 at 11:46pm
Ummm...China? Just guessing. You've probably seen Osterholm's latest: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/01/china-s-second-h7n9-wave-tops-spring-wave - http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2014/01/china-s-second-h7n9-wave-tops-spring-wave Dave Halvorson, DVM, an avian health expert at the University of Minnesota in St. Paul, told CIDRAP News that media reports describing China’s poultry testing techniques raise questions about their effectiveness. He said a ProMED Mail post on a recent report from China’s agriculture ministry to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) suggests that Chinese scientists are using polymerase chain reaction and viral isolation testing to monitor poultry. ProMED Mail is the Internet reporting service of the International Society for Infectious Diseases. He said the surveillance method they are using has little value, because the low-pathogenic virus causes few if any signs in poultry. "It's akin to looking for human influenza virus by sampling clinically healthy people—you won't find much virus." "I call this type of surveillance '‘looking for negatives,' because the probability of finding virus in healthy birds is so low," Halvorson said. (see no evil, hear no evil I guess.) ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 1:06am
I think that just about sums up the situation. Hoping that nobody is really paying close attention, China is doing a half-assed job of making it look like they're responsible and diligent, while their motives are actually much more self serving. After losing billions in poultry sales last year, they're desperate to put a positive spin on this, as evidenced by these quotes from the same CIDRAP article, "...Meanwhile, China's agriculture ministry said today that tests on farms so far this year have found no H7N9 in poultry, according to a separate report from Xinhua. It said no positives were found among 33,400 samples tested from 2,402 sites...." "...Fueling more questions about H7N9 circulation on China's poultry farms, Hong Kong's government today said it detected the virus in a number of samples from a shipment of live chickens that were imported from a registered poultry farm near the Guangdong province city of Foshan, according to a statement posted on the government's Web site..." So, while mainland China openly admits that the virus is showing up in poultry at live markets and sickening people, they flatly deny that the infected birds are coming from their poultry farms. Can't argue with logic like that...  ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 5:22am
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I've said this before, but it could be worth repeating. SARS spread internationally and left China at around 300 cases. Both h7 and SARS had/have similar limited h2h. Based on history, h7 will probably do the same within about 30 days. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 7:41am
Dr.Tom Frieden agrees with you! "Today marks the Lunar New Year – and the world’s largest annual migration. There will be more than 3.6 billion transit trips within China, in addition to countless international trips. Yet this celebration comes at a time of growing concern about the H7N9 avian influenza virus. And this concern is not unfounded – should this virus change into a form that easily spreads between people, the world’s next pandemic could occur in the next three weeks." Part of an article from CNN http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/01/31/how-to-prevent-the-next-pandemic/?hpt=hp_bn2 ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 8:35am
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think i might have to start Prepin......lol ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 8:40am
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Yes I agree. It may be time... Family is the toughest part here. They don't believe a pandemic could happen to them. Atleast my family.Any ideas on how I can educate them on this potential problem? |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 9:29am
Absolutely! When the major public health agencies in the USA start to gear up for pandemic training, you know that the brains in the field are gettin' worried. http://www.jems.com/article/news/minnesota-plans-emergency-prepares-pande - http://www.jems.com/article/news/minnesota-plans-emergency-prepares-pande ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 12:02pm
I'm willing to bet that most of us are in the same position - my wife tolerates my prepping (not sure she would if she knew the extent though) but she's openly skeptical about there being any real need for it. I prep for the time when it's too late to head to the store because panic buying has stripped the shelves, and I can do that myself without help. When the time comes, they'll see the wisdom in what we do ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 2:51pm
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i dont prep as such ,my belief is that if the "slate wiper " hit and with luck me and mine survive, after 3/4 weeks there wont be many people left....... i have a 'BUG OUT' plan/place to go away from the populated areas i do worry what to do about the animals in the Zoo? prob. have to leave them to die........... there would be some hard times ,doubt if most peoples head's would cope with the reality Vermin would take over ,there would be rats by the millions and Roaches, wild cats and dogs ,scavaging on the dead, i think alot of survivor's would go mad so glad i live here in the most isolated city on the planet one road in and 4,000 kms to the next nearest city across a desert only 2million people live in the whole of Western Australia ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 4:20pm
| Lucky you, I live in urban Denver. Can't even imagine the chaos that would ensue in a city. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 7:56pm
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Kyle, Denver will get bad I live in the outer burbs and I am armed to the teeth but...I think about just laying low making my house look like it was burned out and boarded up. NO one is in good shape. When I read that book about the Argentina guy he talks about people in their "bug out houses" and how people like that were tortured, raped, and killed. It will be the luck of the draw for all of us no matter where we are! |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 8:54pm
Really so you feel population density and proximity to that population density won't play a major survival factor in the event of social breakdown due to a virus, ect huh. How interesting. I think its dangerous to rely on luck, since you never get to choose when or if it applies to you. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: January 31 2014 at 9:46pm
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i think its a few things that will play a role , depends on the severity of the pandemic.. worst case the 'slate wiper' 97% of the population die add to that death from other causes, you might have all the preps you can ,and die in the first week, depends on the incubation period of virus and if you were watching events through a site like this for warned is forarmed BE AWARE !!!!!! MIGHT SAVE YOU AND YOURS ...... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 9:52am
Carbon - sorry, but I couldn't disagree more. You have to prep, buddy. There is no flu outbreak that could possibly result in most of the population dying. We're all unique, and our genetic diversity means that at most, only about 50% of us are susceptible to any given influenza virus. 30% is likely the highest infection rate possible for a pandemic influenza strain - still devastating if a virus has a high CFR, but certainly not capable of killing most of our species. Viruses typically trade off lethality for human transmission, so H7N9's current 20% CFR would drop even more in a pandemic. A 30% infection rate, with less than 20% of those dying is still a huge number, but not a slate wiper on it's own. No virus - not even something as infectious as influenza - could take the world by surprise and sicken and kill that many people in so short a time. If things got really bad and panic set in (think bodies in the streets bad) voluntary social distancing would slow down transmission of the virus. People would avoid contact, stay home from work and SIP if they could. It wouldn't necessarily guarantee staying disease free because the majority would be non-preppers who would still have to go looking for supplies, but it would slow it's spread making a 3 to 4 week time frame all but impossible. When I first started prepping, I read a couple of good articles that scared the bejeezus out of me. Actually, they were probably the reasons I started down this road because of the concise way they laid out the consequences to society of a major pandemic, particularly the timeline of an outbreak, the effect that absenteeism and fatalities would have on supply lines and infrastructures, and the very real need for self sufficiency. Both were written a few years ago (back when H5N1 was the only one that had us worried) and should be viewed in that context, but the societal effects they discuss are relevant to any strain that might go H2H in a big way. I'll include a link here for Grattan Woodson's article. The other is hard to find on a site that's not blocked, but it's available as a pdf file called "Becoming self sufficient for six months" by a guy that goes by the title Dr. Dave. Google it and you should find it. Carbon - you're a valued member here. Please rethink your strategy and stay safe. http://www.fluwiki.info/uploads/Consequences/NewGuideOct7b.pdf - http://www.fluwiki.info/uploads/Consequences/NewGuideOct7b.pdf ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Satori
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 10:25am
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EXcellent post Jacksdad "prepping" is insurance that's how I think of it I don't ever want to have to use it but IF I need it it is there I've posted this before but it bears repeating If 3 Inches Of Snow Can Cause This Much Chaos In Atlanta, What Will Economic Collapse Look Like? http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/if-3-inches-of-snow-can-cause-this-much-chaos-in-atlanta-what-will-economic-collapse-look-like excerpt
and unfortunately most Americans aren't prepared for much of anything Not Prepared: 17 Signs That Most Americans Will Be Wiped Out By The Coming Economic Collapse http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/not-prepared-17-signs-that-most-americans-will-be-wiped-out-by-the-coming-economic-collapse |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 11:14am
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jacksdad- I agree with you if it's a natural virus, man made is another story! Satori- Great post! During our last ice storm trucks were at a stand still and the stores were bare in two days. ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 11:43am
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The driving force for our family is the overdue huge earthquake from the Alpine Fault. When that happens, the whole of the South Island of New Zealand will cease to function. When we had a local 7.1 earthquake in Sept 2010 at 4.35am, I drove down to town at about 9am out of curiosity. I wanted to see what was happening at the supermarkets. Both were shut, due to smashed produce all over the floors but the manager of one told me she would open at 10am, so I waited. I parked near the entrance of the carpark and went and sat by the door and watched. Within a few minutes it was madness. People from Christchurch (our local city where the epicentre was) started arriving in cars and cruising around the carpark and then driving off looking for somewhere open, then they came back and a queue started. People were frightened. I was at the front of the queue. The doors opened at 10 am and since I was first in I thought I'd stock up on wine and maybe a bit more pasta, but mainly wine. it was mayhem. I didn't linger, I just took my cart to the checkout. Already there were people shouting at the staff. The manager had imposed a limit on bread and water per person but within half an hour, there was none left. It was 2 bottles per person. I bought 2 and gave them to someone else in the carpark (since we have huge water reserves). People were shoving each other, the atmostphere was incredible. The staff were very stresses and I saw one checkout lady in tears. They could only take cash or cheques. The man in front of me bought 1 packet of nappies (diapers) and cigarettes because that's all the money he had. After I left I heard that the supermarket shut late morning because of the people. Now that is just what happened in our small town after one earthquake that didn't even kill anyone. It was a knee jerk panicked reaction. In Feb 2011 we had a 6.3 that killed 181 people (it was very shallow and ground acceleration bought down hundreds of buildings). After that quake the whole of the CBD in Christchurch was cordoned off and remained so for about 2 years. Food sat on the tables in restaurants, rotting in fridges, kitchens etc. With the absence of normal life, rats flourished. In fact the rat population exploded and the rats grew to enormous size feasting on rotting remains. Even now, 3 years later only 50% of the underground pipes have been repaired. People living in Chch had no water, sewerage or power. Now this all happened locally and help arrived from all over the globe and from all over NZ. Our community shipped in water to houses in town. We all washed out bottles and milk cartons and filled them from our clean supplies, we donated blankets and spare food. Imagine if a disaster happens that's national, where will the help come from? A pandemic that leaves people too scared to go to work will paralyse society. No water, no sewerage, no power, no transport, no food. Everyone has something that they can prepare for. You need cash on hand, water, food, lighting, fuel plus a hundred other things. One thing's for sure, after the big 8.2 that's predicted, I won't venture out. We'll stay put. When the big one comes there will be real hardship here. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 12:05pm
| Back in 2005 we had a massive snowstorm that left over 2 feet of snow here and in the city. Snow plows couldn't keep up and it got to a point where it was impossible to leave our home. Luckily my parents had a lot of extra food, water, etc but if it were to last a few more days we would have been forced without food. |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 1:33pm
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I've mentioned this before, but I was in the SoCal blackout and even though it only lasted about 12 hours in the worst affected areas, what I saw still managed to shake my faith in people's priorities. It happened late in the afternoon, and the timing made all the difference. I learned a valuable lesson myself that day because both of our vehicles were low on gas and I had nothing stored in cans. I picked up my wife (45 minutes in traffic on a route that normally takes five), but we had to pull over on the way back and wait for the congestion to clear or risking running out of fuel. The gas stations we passed were bumper to bumper with cars, drivers standing dejectedly next to their vehicles, probably unable to get home. We parked in the shade outside a liquor store, and for an hour we watched a constant stream of people pull up, look through the darkened windows, bargain unsuccessfully with the staff seated outside in chairs and leave. KiwiMum - you have plenty of everything, but I guarantee that most of these people had no food, water or batteries stockpiled. Booze was the last thing they should have been hunting down in the hours before it got dark. And it got dark. It was like being out in the mountains or desert on a moonless night. We had area lamps and flashlights in abundance, and an emergency radio for updates on the few stations we could find still able to broadcast. The streets and houses were pitch black though, with the exception of maybe one house per block with a single candle lighting up a room. People were bending down and using cellphones to light their way as they walked home. It was sad, and very disturbing to contemplate what the second night would have been like if the power hadn't come back on. And the chaos that would have ensued by the end of the first week doesn't bear thinking about. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 1:39pm
Captain Trips? ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 2:16pm
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i live 5 mins from the ocean, rabbits and kangaroos ,sheep and cattle all nearbye for fresh food ,i am an experienced out doors person ,believe me when i say, i know my capablities to think on my feet,i can make drinking water out of the lakes around where i live ,i have tins of fish ,potatoes ,veggies i have dried milk powder(full fat) ,rice and flour and pasta, i dont store shelves of toilet paper, as i have seen other prepers do on the TV, i dont need a weapon!!!!! Perth is a very special place to live , the Austalian people will all pull together in a crisis, i am a member of the local State Emergency Service, i know how to make it through if the going gets tough, might boost up the supplies the moment i hear H2H confirmed !!!!!! 5 P's ........prior preperation prevents poor perfomance think this site is great ,and you all good people on here glad to be with you ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 2:21pm
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funny Niman not on this at all he more interested in h1n1 and h5n1 ???????? ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 2:28pm
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jacksdad- I had to Goggle it, I've never read Stephen King! I don't know about 90% but I believe sooner or later there will be a GoF lab accident or some terrorist will let something loose that we've never seen before! ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 2:49pm
Human Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes Directed to Seasonal Influenza A Viruses Cross-React with the Newly Emerging H7N9 Virus
http://jvi.asm.org/content/88/3/1684.short# - + Author Affiliations ABSTRACTIn February 2013, zoonotic transmission of a novel influenza A virus of the H7N9 subtype was reported in China. Although at present no sustained human-to-human transmission has been reported, a pandemic outbreak of this H7N9 virus is feared. Since neutralizing antibodies to the hemagglutinin (HA) globular head domain of the virus are virtually absent in the human population, there is interest in identifying other correlates of protection, such as cross-reactive CD8+ T cells (cytotoxic T lymphocytes [CTLs]) elicited during seasonal influenza A virus infections. These virus-specific CD8+ T cells are known to recognize conserved internal proteins of influenza A viruses predominantly, but it is unknown to what extent they cross-react with the newly emerging H7N9 virus. Here, we assessed the cross-reactivity of seasonal H3N2 and H1N1 and pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus-specific polyclonal CD8+ T cells, obtained from HLA-typed study subjects, with the novel H7N9 virus. The cross-reactivity of CD8+ T cells to H7N9 variants of known influenza A virus epitopes and H7N9 virus-infected cells was determined by their gamma interferon (IFN-γ) response and lytic activity. It was concluded that, apart from recognition of individual H7N9 variant epitopes, CD8+ T cells to seasonal influenza viruses display considerable cross-reactivity with the novel H7N9 virus. The presence of these cross-reactive CD8+ T cells may afford some protection against infection with the new virus. ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 3:10pm
|
the best read ,i read this about 20 years ago ,this is where i first heard about the 'slate wiper'97%
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 3:17pm
| Is this recent? |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 3:20pm
| I mean the abstract previously posted. Is it recent? |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 3:40pm
yes november 2013 Google scholar,scary
Human Cytotoxic T Lymphocytes Directed to Seasonal Influenza A Viruses Cross-React with the Newly Emerging H7N9 Virus
http://jvi.asm.org/content/88/3/1684.short# - + Author Affiliations ABSTRACTIn February 2013, zoonotic transmission of a novel influenza A virus of the H7N9 subtype was reported in China. Although at present no sustained human-to-human transmission has been reported, a pandemic outbreak of this H7N9 virus is feared. Since neutralizing antibodies to the hemagglutinin (HA) globular head domain of the virus are virtually absent in the human population, there is interest in identifying other correlates of protection, such as cross-reactive CD8+ T cells (cytotoxic T lymphocytes [CTLs]) elicited during seasonal influenza A virus infections. These virus-specific CD8+ T cells are known to recognize conserved internal proteins of influenza A viruses predominantly, but it is unknown to what extent they cross-react with the newly emerging H7N9 virus. Here, we assessed the cross-reactivity of seasonal H3N2 and H1N1 and pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus-specific polyclonal CD8+ T cells, obtained from HLA-typed study subjects, with the novel H7N9 virus. The cross-reactivity of CD8+ T cells to H7N9 variants of known influenza A virus epitopes and H7N9 virus-infected cells was determined by their gamma interferon (IFN-γ) response and lytic activity. It was concluded that, apart from recognition of individual H7N9 variant epitopes, CD8+ T cells to seasonal influenza viruses display considerable cross-reactivity with the novel H7N9 virus. The presence of these cross-reactive CD8+ T cells may afford some protection against infection with the new virus. FOOTNOTES
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 4:13pm
Arirish - do yourself a favor and get a copy of "The Stand", and definitely take the time to find the much longer unabridged version. When he first wrote it, Stephen King didn't have as much clout with his publishers as he does now, and they cut almost half of it (something like 500 pages). Thankfully the original is now in print again. It's a long read, but you'll still wish it was longer. Absolutely awesome novel  ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Suzi
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 4:43pm
| Demon in the Freezer is good also. About small pox. |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 4:51pm
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Is The Stand a horror story? I read some Stephen King when I was at college and it was really frightening. I'm not sure I could read another horror story. I love thrillers, just not horror. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 4:59pm
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The Stand is a Story " Hot Zone" is real life ,another good story is "the earth abides"
http://www.goodreads.com/book/photo/93269.Earth_Abides"> great read 
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 5:36pm
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I read all the time, mostly history and mysterys but I love all books so I'll give all of the above a try! Thanks for the recommendations! ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: hachiban08
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 5:55pm
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I still really like One Second After (it's about an EMP attack and the aftermath of it). Has a slight dystopian feel to me, and that's the genre I read the most/working on a novel about. ------------- Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 6:25pm
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Yes Looper luck will be a big part of survival. I don't know about you but I am not wealthy enough to have a second retreat. Many of us do not have that kind of money. And what? You take off from your home during a pandemic or some other event with thousands and try and take over some other persons retreat out of the city? No matter where you SIP there will be someone who will try and take what you have. Now if you have a fully functioning underground retreat that does not need for you to ever come out of the hole then you are both very lucky and very wealthy. Then you have to look at how old you are and your physical condition. I am in my mid 60's with a kid in college. I have a "bad" ankle that I hurt in my 30's and I do therapy for it but it is a big weakness. So a very long walk especially on uneven ground is not a good thing. My husband died in 5 years ago so no man to help... makes a huge difference. Men have skills and strengths that most women do not have. And my 20 year old son does not make a man...yet! I will be lucky depending on the disaster on getting my kid home from college and hunker down at home. So yes, luck will play a big part on survival for many of us. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 7:35pm
| I don't want to ruffle any feathers (excuse the pun) and I apologize if I do but thought this thread was WHO H7N9 Situation Updates. I kinda of expect the info here to br relevant to this topic as well as being current to our situation today. Logging on and finding info that is very dated, while interesting and valuable, as well as book reviews and opinions on prepping aren't what I think most would be looking for in this post. Of course I defer to those who have been here a long time and built this helpful site |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 7:54pm
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we do get side tracked dont we LOL, anyway h7n9 is very scary ,noting that we humans have no resistance to it........aka a few posts ago ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 9:14pm
We did go a bit OT there, didn't we? Don't worry - we'll probably get someone to start a new WHO update thread and this one will sink into obscurity. Unlike some forums, AFT has never been particularly rules orientated in that respect and some of us have a habit of losing track and getting easily sidetracked...  ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Elver
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 9:22pm
| 6 new cases in China, 1 dead. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: February 01 2014 at 11:06pm
I hear you Flumom no doubt everyone will do the best they can in the event of a major situation and never was it said that good luck was not a good thing. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: February 02 2014 at 5:59am
Wow, can I relate! Younger (45) and healthy but also no man & keeping farm going with 'power on' and everything being so called normal is hard enough!! You are so right in that men have different skills - I can do some wood work, but am absolutely useless when it comes to anything mechanical!!! I do have family close by - one thinks he's ready, but also thinks what coming 'isn't a big deal...'! No concept of how ugly this can/will get - and by this I mean grid down as it seems like all worst case scenarios - terrorist attack, EMP, plague, massive natural disaster etc all eventually hit society break down & power outage... One thing that never seems to get touched on is the fact that if grid down occurs for any real duration of time - the us has 100+ nuclear power plants that all have the potential to turn into Fukushima!!!! To try to survive that WILL need an under ground bunker & in that regard I'm also the same as you (& most ppl) ...who has $!!'s for that?!?!? |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 02 2014 at 6:08am
|
A seasonal spike in bird flu cases in China has left 18 people dead, after at least 95 confirmed cases.
Source
AAP
Twelve people have been killed by H7N9 bird flu in a single Chinese province this month, according to state media. The deaths occurred in the eastern province of Zhejiang, the state-run Xinhua news agency said, citing local health authorities. The report came as China was said to have dropped its previous description of H7N9 bird flu as "infectious" in new guidelines on how to deal with the disease. The National Health and Family Planning Commission described it as a "communicable acute respiratory disease" in its 2014 diagnosis and treatment protocols. In the 2013 version it was considered an "infectious disease". The Beijing Times on Monday quoted an unnamed Beijing disease control centre official saying that health authorities decided to "downgrade" the virus on the basis that nearly a year of analysis had shown H7N9 was "not strongly infectious". The H7N9 human outbreak began in China in February 2013 and reignited fears that a bird flu virus could mutate to become easily transmissible between people, potentially triggering a pandemic. The guidelines come as human cases undergo a seasonal spike, with at least 95 cases confirmed in mainland China so far this month, leading to 18 deaths, according to an AFP tally of reports. More than half have been in Zhejiang, with 24 in Guangdong in the south. That compares with 144 confirmed cases, including 46 deaths, in the whole of 2013 according to official statistics. It was not clear whether the rise in reported cases is due to the virus becoming more widespread and possibly less severe, or detection and treatment improving. Cases and deaths dropped significantly after the end of June, but have begun to pick up with the onset of winter. "So far, most cases have been sporadic and there were some cluster outbreaks among family members," the commission said in the guidelines. "But there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission yet," it said, although it added that "limited" and "unsustained" infections could not be ruled out. ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: February 03 2014 at 5:24pm
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Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update Disease outbreak news 3 FEBRUARY 2014 - The National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) of China has notified WHO of nine additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, including one death. Details of four cases notified on 1 February 2014 are as follows: All four cases are male. The age range is 5 to 80 years old. Cases have been reported from Guangdong (2), and Zhejiang (2). Two cases are currently in critical condition and the other two cases are in stable condition. Three of the cases are reported to have had exposure to poultry or a live poultry market. A 80-year-old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 19 January and was admitted to hospital on 30 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry. A 54-year-old man from Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 23 January and was admitted to hospital on 26 January. He is currently in a critical condition. A 6-year-old boy who is living in Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, and became ill on 27 January. He was detected on 28 January by Shenzhen Entry-Exit Quarantine Bureau when travelling through Huanggang Port. He has mild symptoms and is in a stable condition. He is currently in isolated treatment at home. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry. A 5-year old boy from Zhaoqing City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 29 January and admitted to hospital on the same day. He is in a stable condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. Details of five cases notified on 31 January 2014 are as follows: Of these, four cases are male. The age range is 28 to 82 years old. Cases have been reported from Guangdong (4), and Hunan (1). One case is fatal and the rest are currently in critical or serious condition. Four of the cases are reported to have had exposure to poultry or a live poultry market. A 28-year-old man from Zhaoqing City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 24 January 2014 and admitted to hospital on 26 January. He is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 82-year-old man from Foshan City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 22 January and admitted to hospital on 26 January. He is currently in a critical condition. A 59-year-old man from Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 22 January and admitted to hospital on 26 January. He died on 30 January. The patient had a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 81-year-old woman from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 25 January and admitted to hospital on 29 January. She is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 38-year-old male from Yongzhou City, Hunan Province with onset of symptoms on 24 January 2014. He was admitted to hospital on 30 January and is currently in a critical condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese Government continues to take the following surveillance and control measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. Sporadic human cases While the recent report of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus being detected in live poultry imported from the mainland to Hong Kong SAR, shows the potential for the virus to spread through live poultry, at this time there is no indication that international spread of avian influenza A(H7N9) has occurred through humans or animals. Further sporadic human cases of A(H7N9) infection are expected in affected and possibly neighbouring areas, especially given expected increases in the trade and transport of poultry associated with the Lunar New Year. WHO advice WHO advises that travellers to countries with known outbreaks of avian influenza should avoid poultry farms, or contact with animals in live bird markets, or entering areas where poultry may be slaughtered, or contact with any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with faeces from poultry or other animals. Travellers should also wash their hands often with soap and water. Travellers should follow good food safety and good food hygiene practices. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. As always, a diagnosis of infection with an avian influenza virus should be considered in individuals who develop severe acute respiratory symptoms while travelling or soon after returning from an area where avian influenza is a concern. WHO encourages countries to continue strengthening influenza surveillance, including surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and to carefully review any unusual patterns, in order to ensure reporting of human infections under the IHR (2005), and continue national health preparedness actions. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_02_03/en/index.html - WHO |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 03 2014 at 5:45pm
|
Greetings Guest my friend, you will probably have to sift through off topic discussions through this thread along with many other threads around here. This venue, being a forum, allows and encourages personal opinion and interjection from anyone at anytime, as well as yours by virtue of you pointing out the OT discussion. Bear with us and we'll try to keep it on track. Glad to have you here and have noticed your posts, and appreciate the input. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: Kyle
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 7:53am
|
Human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus – update Disease outbreak news 4 FEBRUARY 2014 - On 2 February 2014, the National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) of China notified WHO of five additional laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus including one death. Details of the cases are as follows: Four cases are male. The age range is 8 to 63 years old. Cases have been reported from Guangdong (2), Hunan (1), Fujian (1) and Zhejiang (1). Three cases are currently in serious condition, one in critical condition. All cases are reported to have had exposure to poultry or a live poultry market. A 44 year-old man from Taizhou City, Zhejiang Province, who became ill on 28 January and was admitted to hospital on 31 January. He is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry. A 8 year-old girl from Yongzhou City, Hunan Province, who became ill on 30 January and was admitted to hospital on 31 January. She is currently in a serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 35 year-old man from Xiamen City, Fujian Province, who became ill on 27 January and was admitted to hospital on 1 February. He is currently in serious condition. The patient has a history of exposure to live poultry. A 37 year-old man from Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 26 January and was admitted to hospital on 29 January and then transferred to the another hospital on 30 January. He is in a critical condition. He has a history of exposure to a live poultry market. A 63 year-old man from Shenzhen City, Guangdong Province, who became ill on 27 January and was admitted to hospital on 1 February and died on the same day. The patient had a history of exposure to a live poultry market. So far, there is no evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission. The Chinese Government continues to take the following surveillance and control measures: strengthen surveillance and situation analysis; reinforce case management and treatment; conduct risk communication with the public and release information; strengthen international collaboration and communication; and conduct scientific studies. Sporadic human cases While the recent report of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus being detected in live poultry imported from the mainland to Hong Kong SAR, shows the potential for the virus to spread through live poultry, at this time there is no indication that international spread of avian influenza A(H7N9) has occurred through humans or animals. Further sporadic human cases of A(H7N9) infection are expected in affected and possibly neighbouring areas, especially given expected increases in the trade and transport of poultry associated with the Lunar New Year. WHO advice WHO advises that travellers to countries with known outbreaks of avian influenza should avoid poultry farms, or contact with animals in live bird markets, or entering areas where poultry may be slaughtered, or contact with any surfaces that appear to be contaminated with faeces from poultry or other animals. Travellers should also wash their hands often with soap and water. Travellers should follow good food safety and good food hygiene practices. WHO does not advise special screening at points of entry with regard to this event, nor does it currently recommend any travel or trade restrictions. As always, a diagnosis of infection with an avian influenza virus should be considered in individuals who develop severe acute respiratory symptoms while travelling or soon after returning from an area where avian influenza is a concern. WHO encourages countries to continue strengthening influenza surveillance, including surveillance for severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and to carefully review any unusual patterns, in order to ensure reporting of human infections under the IHR (2005), and continue national health preparedness actions. http://www.who.int/csr/don/2014_02_04/en/index.html - WHO |
Posted By: arirish
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 11:52am
|
1. Is time between onset and severe symtoms short? or 2. Are people waiting untill it's to late to go to the doctor? or 3. Is the Chinese gov only reporting severe cases? Probably some of all the above? Five New Cases Bird Flu Reported In China 2/4/2014 12:51 PM ET The United Nations World Health Organization (WHO) said Tuesday that China's National Health and Family Planning Commission has notified it of five new laboratory-confirmed cases of human infection with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, including one death. The fatality was a 63 year-old man from Shenzhen City in Guangdong Province, who became ill on January 27. He was admitted to hospital on February 1 and died on the same day. The patient had a history of exposure to a live poultry market. Three of the remaining cases are men, while the fifth is an 8 year-old girl from Yongzhou City in Hunan Province. Three patients are currently in serious condition, while the girl is in a critical condition. All cases are reported to have had exposure to poultry or a live poultry market. The UN agency said the Chinese government is continuing to take strict monitoring, prevention and control measures, including strengthening epidemic surveillance and analysis; deployment of medical treatment; conducting public risk communication and information dissemination; strengthening international collaboration and communication; and continuing to carry out scientific research. WHO noted reports of A/H7N9 virus being detected in live poultry imported from the mainland China into Hong Kong. But the agency stressed that there is currently no indication that international spread of H7N9 has occurred through humans or animals. http://www.rttnews.com/2263171/five-new-cases-bird-flu-reported-in-china.aspx?type=gn&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=sitemap ------------- Buy more ammo! |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 3:38pm
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Hi Irish I think the shortening of the virus from onset to severe is an indicator that the virus is becoming more efficient. or It could be a reporting issue too.
|
Posted By: Sara Piddick
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 3:45pm
| Like clockwork, 5-8 new cases per day. I wonder what the true number is? |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 4:18pm
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Hey Irish i forgot to mention. Nanoviricides NNVC signed a deal with a lab called Viroclinics. This is hugely significant because they have their own BioSaftey 3 Lab. These labs are the only ones allowed to handle viruses like H7N9 and MERS. Reading between the lines a little. It seems that Nanoviricides has been asked to supply their fluicide drug to see if it works on H7N9. The reason for me thinking this is; The CEO emailed someone on a blog site and mentioned that something special was happening, he also mentioned H7N9 later in the discussion. I thought was interesting, but other blogger didn't give it a second look. It all makes sense now. Something big is happening with this company. If it works on H7N9. The drug will be given the red carpet treatment and race through FDA approvals. The FDA approvals are the biggest battle for drug companies. It will seriously give a big boost to the share price.. Awesome news!!!! Also!! The stock market doesn't know how bad H7N9 is becoming. |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 4:50pm
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I think I read somewhere that during the Spanish Flu in 1918, some patients were fine in the morning and then dying or dead by the evening, the onset of severe symptoms was so fast. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 5:12pm
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cobber, do you think shares in NNVC are worth a bet on? Are you going to buy some? ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: hachiban08
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 6:02pm
Randomly enough, that reminds me of Season Two of Downton Abbey when they did a bit of a Spanish Flu segment in the middle of the series. One character had it really bad the whole time, and then ended up perfectly fine by the end of the day. Another character was fine the whole time, and then randomly died within a few minutes. ------------- Be prepared! It may be time....^_^v |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: February 04 2014 at 10:06pm
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KiwiMum - I can't find the reference now, but I remember reading an account of someone getting on a trolley car during the 1918 outbreak and watching as several people died before they reached their destination only blocks away. I'll try to hunt it down for you. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |