Coronavirus: RoM
Printed From: Avian Flu Talk
Category: Main Forums
Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=40499
Printed Date: April 17 2024 at 9:06pm
Topic: Coronavirus: RoM
Posted By: Kilt5
Subject: Coronavirus: RoM
Date Posted: January 28 2020 at 1:41am
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Rate of Mortality https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/" rel="nofollow - https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ China only Cases 4,527 Deaths 106 RoM 2.341% These number will change over time |
Replies:
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: January 28 2020 at 11:34pm
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cases 6,016 deaths 132 RoM 2.1 |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 2:39am
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There are currently 6,147 confirmed cases worldwide, including 132 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 11:46pm
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There are currently 7,847 confirmed cases worldwide, including 170 fatalities. RoM 2.1% That RoM is holding true |
Posted By: AlexSun
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 12:19am
| 8:08 first case in India! |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:02pm
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There are currently 7,935 confirmed cases worldwide, including 170 fatalities. still 2.1% |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:17pm
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Thanks, Kilt! The correct term to use is CFR = "Case Fatality Ratio." We also say "Case Fatality Rate." For comparison: The CFR for rabies is essentially 100%; for smallpox, about 50%; for Ebola in the ongoing epidemic in West Africa, about 50%. Influenza CFR during a typical outbreak is only 1% or less. Coronas are not very efficient killers. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: AlexSun
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:26pm
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Actually 8262 cases and 171 death right now https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/" rel="nofollow - https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 2:07pm
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I still maintain my earlier point. The CFR figures are distorted by the huge length of time between infection and death. I don't know what they will be. Let me stress that again. I DONT KNOW WHAT THEY WILL BE. I do know they are distorted by the length of time spent dying. There are other hidden factors too. There may still be huge numbers undiagnosed which will substantially lower the figure, but there may also be deaths unlinked in the statistics, or as yet unndiscovered, which will raise the figure. The current distortedCFR is however convenient for avoiding panic, so no one will argue with that publically yet - not untill the outbreak is over. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: AlexSun
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 2:51pm
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9171/213 right now https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/" rel="nofollow - https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:27pm
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Wow! So many cases, such a huge spread! I wonder how soon we will lose track of it. Thanks Alex! ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:03am
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There are currently 9,927 confirmed cases worldwide, including 213 fatalities. still 2.1% |
Posted By: AlexSun
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:16am
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According to bnonews.com we have around 1527 serious and 348 critical cases. Do we have a number guy who can make some predictions about them? My thoughts are that those are the real percentage we looking for! https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/" rel="nofollow - https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:29am
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Sorry, Alex. It's a great question and I would love to calculate that. But my numbers are inaccurate at best, my higher maths AWOL (I can't remember how to do calculus - it's been 45 years since I needed it!) and the information I used to calculate the length of time an average person took to die (which included times and dates of ICU admissions) has changed, the relevant stuff has dissappeard from the site. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jS24DjSPVWa4iuxuD4OAXrE3QeI8c9BC1hSlqr-NMiU/edit#gid=1187587451" rel="nofollow - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jS24DjSPVWa4iuxuD4OAXrE3QeI8c9BC1hSlqr-NMiU/edit#gid=1187587451 It was published from China, so what did I expect! I am pretty sure of my CFR range, although many would disagree with me, but I can't even hazzard an educated guess at that one. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: AlexSun
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:39am
| Thanks for reply Technophobe, great chart as well! Maybe someone else it'll see this and we'll have an answer! |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:56am
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Well thank you for the vote of confidence. Sadly, some of the information I used has now DISSAPPEARED from that site. It did have 2 highlighted sections listing the dates of diagnosis, symptom onset, admission to ICU and death for groups of about a dozen people each. Those sections are the bits that have gone. No, I'm wrong. I just double checked and the figures are still there, it is only the highlighting which has gone. That is pretty good for China, I maligned them unfairly. I notice the cumulative figures have gone but they can be recovered with a bit of work. NO PROMISES, but if I get a minute I will try over a small section of the figures. I am utterly computer illiterate*, so working out a figure over a large test-pool is beyond me. But I will have a go over a few figures at both the front and current sections of information for comparison and draw a freehand graph (no calculus!) to project. If you can talk anyone else into this you might get more accurate results! *The choice of Technophobe as a title is not ironic. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 6:12am
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Kilts the CFR is not based only on recorded numbers alone as it paints a dire picture and scares the $hit out of people. CFR is made up of fatalities, recorded cases, and an estimate on unrecorded cases. I'm hearing there are lot of unrecorded cases. |
Posted By: KiminNM
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:08am
| Technophobe: I thought the data was gone yesterday also. But click on the line list tab, looks like it's all still there, just moved/hidden a bit. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:11pm
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There are currently 11,948 confirmed cases worldwide, including 259 fatalities. CFR 2.1% |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:15pm
I look at fatalities divided by 1% of known cases - and as the sample is 11,000 or more the statistics means the numbers are close to reality. We have no clue about unknown cases - so I work with what we know and the mortality rate is 2.1% by my calculations |
cobber wrote:Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 2:58pm
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There are currently 13,950 confirmed cases worldwide, including 304 fatalities. still a mortality rate of 2.17% |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 9:30pm
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There are currently 14,556 confirmed cases worldwide, including 305 fatalities. 2% exactly |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 5:02pm
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There are currently 17,388 confirmed cases worldwide, including 362 fatalities. still 2% |
Posted By: quietprepr
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 5:07pm
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About a 300% (math isn't my strong suit!)increase from your first post in this thread on the 28th. I wonder what the real numbers are... QP ------------- "Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival." - W. Edwards Deming |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 11:25pm
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There are currently 17,393 confirmed cases worldwide, including 362 fatalities. 2,296 serious 475 recovered 21,558 suspected |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 12:02am
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(Kilt, check this out! Be glad we are not living in the Chinese Death Star right now!) A Chinese media outlet covering the deadly coronavirus in the country has raised suspicion about the actual death toll of the illness after local doctors said they have been cremating victims of the disease in secret. "Also, one thing that #China is hiding is the number of death caused by the virus," tweeted Deutsche Welle reporter William Yang. "Credible Chinese media outlet @initiumnews interviewed people working at local cremation centers, confirming that many dead bodies were sent directly from the hospitals to the cremation centers." As the official death toll in China eclipsed 170 on Thursday, Hong Kong–based digital outlet Initium Media published an article interviewing doctors who said they were sending dead victims of the virus to be cremated.  ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 12:24am
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its not happening outside of china - if it was that bad there would be lots of deaths outside of china as well and there is only 1 in the Philippines and he was Chinese from Wuhan There are currently 17,406 confirmed cases worldwide, including 362 fatalities. |
Posted By: Pandemic
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 2:00am
| Interesting, only 1 death outside of China...why ? |
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 2:25am
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Lag, It's lag in the spread. 13 days ago this took off( official reporting?) and the incubation is 4-14 days? Or if you go back to 12/31 .....it's just 33 days, that's seriously a short time for such a long incubation period to gather all the results needed to properly figure this out. ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:25am
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Incubation 7 - 14 days, time spent slowly dying up to a month (average 13 days after sympton onset). That is a time lag of 7 - 42 days! The mean and average work out roughly the same: 23 days. For a person in the West to die now, we would expect them to have been infected around 12th January. Not so many Western sufferers then. Having said that, I now expect the CFR to drop. There does seem to be an effective treatment out there. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:38am
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we will see how many die outside of China - if few then the situation is manageable There are currently 17,486 confirmed cases worldwide, including 362 fatalities. |
Posted By: Pandemic
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 5:27am
| Interesting, thanks.i was reading that major clusters are expected to form outside of China. Not that I want to be doom like. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 7:40am
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The John Hopkins site only records cases outside China back to the 20th - when there were only 4. I can't remember how many cases were outside China back on the 12th. Even only comparing the figures back to the 20th, the CFR outside China would be huge. But a test subject cohort of only 4 people is just not large enough to extrapolate from. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Lonewolf
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 9:11am
| Cant remember where so i camt substantiate it but i read that asian lungs are genetically different than caucasion so a virus with pneumonia might affect each differently |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 9:27am
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Here are some statistics from the American Lung Association. Deaths From Pneumonia 8 percent higher among blacks 21 percent higher among American Indians or Alaska Natives 6 percent lower among Asians or Pacific Islanders 18 percent lower among Hispanics My knowledge of genetics is insufficient to approach that question from the DNA side. But an approach should be possible to some. https://www.lung.org/assets/documents/research/pi-trend-report.pdf" rel="nofollow - https://www.lung.org/assets/documents/research/pi-trend-report.pdf ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 9:07pm
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There are currently 20,629 confirmed cases worldwide, including 427 fatalities. The mortality is still 2% But the question now is the r0 - how many people does each infected person infect |
Posted By: EdwinSm,
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 11:22pm
BUT if you use for calculation only those case the have been resolved [deaths 426, recovered 576] you get a mortality rate of 42.6% ! The trouble is about 95% of the reported cases are still classed as having the virus, and it is not sure how many of these will recover or not. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 11:26pm
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Personally I wouldnt believe any numbers coming out of China.... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 11:28pm
I agree. They seem to be rushing mortalities to cremation without reporting. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 04 2020 at 5:10am
| its not spreading like wildfire in other countries |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 04 2020 at 5:17am
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You seem to be right there Kilt, but remember the latency period. That affects the numbers showing up as infected, as does the asympyomatic, paucisymptomatic and undiscovered. I hope you stay right. You could - easily. But it is not guaranteed. It is a race, and we do not know which side us-v-virus will win yet. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 04 2020 at 5:21am
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I feel the need to clarify that: The virus does not 'want' to wipe us out. It 'wants' to breed, thrive and spread. It 'wants' to become endemic. We want to stop it completely. We want to make it extinct! That is the race. I believe China has lost it already, India is about to lose it and the rest of us, who knows? ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 04 2020 at 3:21pm
| There are currently 23,867 confirmed cases worldwide, including 492 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 4:37am
| There are currently 24,584 confirmed cases worldwide, including 493 fatalities. |
Posted By: Pandemic
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 5:15am
| 5 day doubling time is indicated. If the trajectory is correct, tomorrow will be approx 30,000 cases confirmed, though the number of fatalities is a lower increase than previous day, I believe. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 5:33am
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There does seem to be a bit of progress being made in treating this bug. That could be dropping the death rate. There could also be an attempt to cover up the deaths in China; which does have a well earned reputation for such things. Both - is the liklest reason. I have also noted that the numbers of recovered is rising. This is great news. I have been arguing for, what seems like forever, that the time delay must be taken into account in calculating the death rate; well it also applies to the numbers of recovered. Both calculating the CFR by comparing cases to deaths and by comparing it to recovered numbers, is pointless as they only give you the extreme parameters within which said CFR can fall. This is not helpful (1 - 51% on current figures) as it is too vague. People take a very long time to recover from this bug; so the numbers are set to rise sharply now - maybe as exponentially as the case numbers. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 2:33pm
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There are currently 27,602 confirmed cases worldwide, including 564 fatalities. The problem is that it infects asymptomatically - so the new people infected will infect others before they show symptoms - this is very very bad |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 2:56pm
That is absolutely true, Kilt. You could not be more right. I wish you were wrong and I could argue this one. No chance!  I know that the original study confirming asymptomatic contagion was flawed, but there is so much circumstantial evidence and such an apparently huge R0, everything just seems to keep on rising, and speeding up as it does. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 3:24pm
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I find it odd that there is no real news good or bad coming out of India...... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: John Ray
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 4:58pm
| I agree |
Posted By: Flubergasted
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 6:24pm
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https://qz.com/india/1795841/how-india-is-dealing-with-the-coronavirus-outbreak/" rel="nofollow - https://qz.com/india/1795841/how-india-is-dealing-with-the-coronavirus-outbreak/ https://m.timesofindia.com/city/kochi/kerala-tackling-coronavirus-with-experience-drawn-from-fighting-nipah/articleshow/73962952.cms" rel="nofollow - https://m.timesofindia.com/city/kochi/kerala-tackling-coronavirus-with-experience-drawn-from-fighting-nipah/articleshow/73962952.cms Looks like India is taking no chances. Quarantine for 28 days. Not sure monitoring from Jan. 15th returns from China is early enough, though. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 6:27pm
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Smart! ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 7:37pm
| If it spreads in India...Game OVER! |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 05 2020 at 8:37pm
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and or Africa The most people to die of H5N1 flu was Egypt |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 06 2020 at 2:57pm
| There are currently 30,812 confirmed cases worldwide, including 635 fatalities. |
Posted By: Newbie1A
Date Posted: February 06 2020 at 5:49pm
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Technophobe, BabyCat or Kilt5 or someone... can you start to chart possible/confirmed cases in the USA (or Australia or?) just thinking if US is now where China was back in December - maybe if tracking & projecting numbers starting now will give us feedback on 'where' we're heading, better timeline of what to expect when. Ie If you put USA known data onto an exponential chart - what number of confirmed cases could we expect at Feb end or March end? Then we could see how close it's following the curve outside China. Do you get what I'm trying to say/ask? ------------- If it's to be - it's up to me! |
Posted By: ZedNorte
Date Posted: February 06 2020 at 5:56pm
| I’d also really like to have “Recoveries: .... “ listed at the top here, next to “Deaths:” |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 06 2020 at 7:00pm
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This is all that matters Its not going gangbusters anywhere else but in China There are currently 31,481 confirmed cases worldwide, including 639 fatalities. In 5 days will it be double this? Will it be 60,000 cases and 1,200 dead? |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 06 2020 at 7:02pm
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China total TOTAL 31,161 Dead 637 4,821 serious 1,540 recovered 26,359 suspected |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 06 2020 at 9:11pm
| There are currently 31,481 confirmed cases worldwide, including 639 fatalities. |
Posted By: EdwinSm,
Date Posted: February 07 2020 at 12:08am
True, but there is a steady but small increase in many countries in South-East Asia (or to use WHO terms "West Pacific Region". Countries like Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea. In Europe there were no new cases reported in the 6th February figures from WHO. Have the travel bans worked? My gut feeling is that the have worked in slowing down the spread, but that might just delay the breakout else where. In China the figures for Hubei (the province worst hit) are at almost 20 000 cases, where else no other Province has more than 1 000 cases. This virus seems to take its time getting started, which does give us more time to get ready. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 07 2020 at 12:35am
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I really can't see it just going away.... Aka SARS....... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Pandemic
Date Posted: February 07 2020 at 1:50am
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Another new case was reported on 6th in Sussex,England, just 40 miles from me !?. I wonder why it wasn't reported on WHO stats ! |
Posted By: EdwinSm,
Date Posted: February 07 2020 at 2:11am
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51398039" rel="nofollow - Link to whole BBC article About WHO: give them time! This is breaking news! Their "situation reports" are updated once a day so this news was not available then they issued their last report. If it is not in the next report then there would be a lot to complain about. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 07 2020 at 1:29pm
| There are currently 31,534 confirmed cases worldwide, including 639 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 08 2020 at 4:23am
| There are currently 34,957 confirmed cases worldwide, including 725 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 08 2020 at 7:19pm
| There are currently 37,554 confirmed cases worldwide, including 813 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 09 2020 at 5:10pm
| There are currently 40,554 confirmed cases worldwide, including 910 fatalities. |
Posted By: EdwinSm,
Date Posted: February 10 2020 at 12:44am
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The Case Fatality Rate seems to be creeping up, now at 2.25%. If one takes into account the time lag and compare yesterday's death to yesterday's new cases then the CFR is higher. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 10 2020 at 4:43pm
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There are currently 42,729 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,013 fatalities. I got a rate of 2.3 |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 10 2020 at 9:22pm
| There are currently 43,102 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,018 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 11 2020 at 3:01pm
| There are currently 44,754 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,112 fatalities. |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 11 2020 at 3:34pm
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^Thanks, Kilt! This is not a particularly lethal virus, which is one reason I'm not terribly worried right now. Many mortalities seem to have been caused by pre-existing medical conditions or secondary bacterial pneumonia. Elderly are at highest risk. Compared to SARS, this one hasn't raised my alarm....yet. However, a shift in antigens, or other unknown factors, could complicate my math. SARS was worse. "SARS was a relatively rare disease; at the end of the epidemic in June 2003, the incidence was 8422 cases with a case-fatality rate of 11%. The case-fatality ratio ranges from 0% to 50% depending on the age group of the patient." ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 11 2020 at 3:41pm
| The Flu is the main event - this is just a rehearsal |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 11 2020 at 8:07pm
| There are currently 45,171 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,115 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 12 2020 at 4:37pm
| There are currently 60,017 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,355 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 12 2020 at 9:28pm
| There are currently 60,062 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,355 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 13 2020 at 2:42pm
| There are currently 60,390 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,370 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 13 2020 at 4:29pm
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this is getting worse by the hour There are currently 64,170 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,486 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 13 2020 at 4:58pm
| 64,171 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,486 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 13 2020 at 10:01pm
| There are currently 64,438 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,383 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 14 2020 at 4:14pm
| There are currently 66,907 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,523 fatalities. |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 15 2020 at 12:49am
| There are currently 67,107 confirmed cases worldwide, including 1,526 fatalities. |
Posted By: Little House
Date Posted: February 15 2020 at 6:38am
| Thank you Kilt5 for posting these. It is nice to have a record of the numbers, and a place to find the most updated numbers. |
Posted By: Lonewolf
Date Posted: February 15 2020 at 2:11pm
| Yes, what LittleHouse said |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 15 2020 at 3:53pm
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 15 2020 at 6:34pm
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 15 2020 at 7:44pm
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 15 2020 at 11:13pm
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 16 2020 at 3:08pm
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 16 2020 at 3:09pm
| 1,000 more cases and 100 more deaths - this is serious |
Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 16 2020 at 4:25pm
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 16 2020 at 5:43pm
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 16 2020 at 7:44pm
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 17 2020 at 3:40am
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Posted By: Kilt5
Date Posted: February 17 2020 at 9:35pm
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Posted By: Newbie1A
Date Posted: February 18 2020 at 4:35am
And this was Feb.4 - 14 days ago approx... Posted: 04 February 2020 at 3:21pm There are currently 23,867 confirmed cases worldwide, including 492 fatalities. So there's been lots of discussion re: figuring out CFR from 'when sick' to death total vs current number of sick to death total. So does 23,867 divided by 1775 for 13.44% make sense? Now 2 big problems I see with this- a) these are working off the 'official numbers' (enuf said) b) this isn't counting all the mild cases that were never diagnosed/not counted etc Still trying to figure out 'why' so deadly there and not elsewhere. Is it truly an 'Asian thing' (sorry - I know that's a terrible way to say it but no coffee and simply can't think of a better/more technical way) but I mean something there environmentally, or the lung proteins etc, or are all the videos' leaked on twitter, facebook etc horse pucky and something else completely is going on? ------------- If it's to be - it's up to me! |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 18 2020 at 4:50am
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Spot on all around. There are far too many unanswered questions to get an accurate figure. The maths is good, the data crap. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 18 2020 at 4:59am
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Usually, at the end of an outbreak, the true CFR emerges. Because of the discrepancy between date of infection and date of death, it always rises past the estimates made during the outbreak. I don't know what this one will do. It could go up, hugely up, down or more likely than all those, never be truly known. China is so secretive! Real data is unicorn poo - or at least as rare. We are still guessing at the official R0 and that is only based on figures about a week behind symptoms appearing, not the longer period to death. The infection rate will have to be calculated from people outside China. 'And the cohort for that study is still quite small. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: February 18 2020 at 9:43am
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Don't forget, the official death toll does not count those who die untested (confirmed)....and with cremation capacity over stretched one can only guess. ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |