Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately
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Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=40535
Printed Date: April 19 2024 at 10:55pm
Topic: Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately
Posted By: BabyCat
Subject: Exponential Growth - Stop and Read Immediately
Date Posted: January 28 2020 at 10:20pm
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*Update- go to the end of the thread for more current graphs Fortunately, the direst predictions have not occurred. Relieved so far!! 0000 Not enough people are paying attention to this. The actual, reported infection rate data is following a near perfect exponential growth, matching up on a logarithmic scale. The math is brutal and inescapable. If this continues, we are well and truly screwed. The travel "ban" is not stopping this sucker, not even close. In my opinion, the US and other countries need to ban all incoming flights from China, or institute mandatory quarantine for those who have traveled from China in the last 30 days. Extreme? Perhaps. But humans have no immunity to this, and there is no cure. A death rate that remains at 3% will be a catastrophe the modern era has never known. But I don't think anything short of massive and draconian measures are going to stop this. We have been warned. Quotes from Twitter posts: Exponential growth of #coronavirus infections. In a lot of places. The diagram uses a logarithmic scale. This allows to compare the #growth rates of #infections in different locations.https://mobile.twitter.com/t_kurz/status/1221854317944168448 = This is a log graph of #coronavirus cases, blue are data, orange is projected. spread is exponential At this rate, a single case could infect everyone on earth within 5 months and kill 1 billion people. https://mobile.twitter.com/prodreamer1/status/1222374250213859329 = #2019nCoV #coronavirus statistic trend 29/01/2020 update. Death rate continues to best fit a polynomial curve. Infection rate still best fits exponential growth curve. https://mobile.twitter.com/prodreamer1/status/1222374250213859329 Following #nCov incidences - I hope the model breaks out of its exponential growth phase. Pretty consistent doubling of cases every 2 days = #Coronavirus Coronavirus Infected Cases & Prediction. This model was highly accurate so far. We're in trouble guys. 😟 Latest Numbers from WHO show that in about 2 days we are expected to reach 10,000 cases. so far we haven't seen and deviation from the expected exponential climb upwards. #coronavirus #ncov2020 #nCoV19 truly chilling to think soon we may have a big problem on our hands 😕🙁☹️😬 https://mobile.twitter.com/minhai22/status/1222044730097164288 -The problem with #Coronavirus is mathematics. Most people don't understand exponential function over time. On current course, this time next month, well over 1 million stand to lose their lives because of this virus. #health #pandemic #wuhan       
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Replies:
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 2:47am
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Albert needs to pin the projections, good catch Babycat. I agree, we did some rough extrapolations on Friday or Saturday and it looked to follow roughly the same path, not quite as aggressive but still close. One thing (among many) I'm waiting for is if the projections hold once the virus takes hold in western society... ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 3:07am
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I'm more interested in what happen if it Takes off in India, Bangladesh....the sub-continent ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 3:28am
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"Interested"............... hmmmm interesting times! ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:47am
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With China now over 60.000 "under observation", very limited testing for the virus, at least 2% of people with the virus showing no fever-still spreading the only good news is that airlines stop flying to China since there is no demand. Still so many cases are already "out of China" for the moment there is no easy way to slow down the spread. Stopping major travel-all around the globe-to slow down the spread, stop mass-meetings-are seen as "draconic". Not doing so will show to be worse-the spread goes on. Most likely already more cases out of any observation, hospital, testing etc. so statistics only catch the top of the problem-with most of the growth-and risks-out of sight for any organization. ------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Posted By: roni3470
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 6:57am
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Based on this curve, I am not sure why more people are not worried about this. I understand its not proving to be really lethal but that can change at the drop of a hat. Why does it seem like people are acting as if this is nothing? ------------- NOW is the Season to Know that Everything you Do is Sacred |
Posted By: WitchMisspelled
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:34am
| They're acting like it's nothing because they're being told "We're safe". I'm sure officials are worried, but it's their job to keep the populace calm but it's being misleading. |
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:35am
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Seriously, that silence is people holding their breath. ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:58am
Okay. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
pheasant wrote:Posted By: DeepThinker
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:29am
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What you are seeing more accurately depicts an exponential ability of the Chinese government to detect and report cases. I think it is quite impressive. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:48am
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Good point. The rate at which new infections can be reported I think are being limited by the availability of testing kits, actual hospital visits, etc. How many more exist? Just a tip of the iceberg, imo. What happens if/when this hits India? Africa? Would climate limit its spread like other coronoviruses like the common cold? Will we see waves/seasons of infections like 1917-1918? I think it could be like then, but worse, because, like then, we have no immunity, there is no cure/vaccine, but we have air travel. On the other hand, we have global social media and people can try to isolate themselves, which I think is the saving grace at the moment. I still have contacts in China, and even outside of Hubei, the country is essentially shut down, public spaces (subways, stores, streets, buses,etc.) are deserted. Ghost towns. Everybody is inside, self-quarantined. Contacts post pics and videos of deserted streets, how bored they are at home for 10 days now, how shops are out of various items, how expensive food is now as food production/distribution has essentially halted, since it is mostly poorer folks working these kinds of jobs, and if travel is limited, they cannot work. At what point, because of this, will the infection rate curve start to change inflection? (The slope becomes smaller or first derivative changes)) Will it be in a few days or a few weeks? This virus is now "out in the wild" and unfortunately the impact is only going to be delayed or reduced, not eliminated, until we get a vaccine or an effective treatment. I only hope like many viruses, its virulence reduces as it infects more people. As someone who appreciates the math, I want to see more data, but as a human being, that data going forward comes at an enormous cost. Here in Northern California, the Bay Area is home to many people with current ties (recent travel, or connected to those with recent travel) to Mainland China. I suspect this virus is already circulating here as a result, and health departments and people are naively assuming there are fewer carriers than I suspect there is. So, I started wearing a mask in public. I don't care what anyone else thinks anymore, besides, no one cares anyway here. This is the time to do so I believe because we have so many unknowns, unknown Ro, unknown incubation or transmission vectors (eyes?), unknown virus hardiness, high attack rate (20% serious rate per WHO), asymptomatic shedding, and H2H transmission. I am not going to wait until "the government" tells me what I should do first. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 9:08am
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One thing to keep in mind, is that this is Chinese New Year, where millions and millions of Chinese mainlanders travel "home" (province or village), or fo vacations overseas. So, right now, there are undoubtedly Chinese tourists, infected, in the US, in Thailand, in Australia, in Europe, wherever, who may be infected and have/still are spreading this. This is not "racism", this is a public health emergency. When the WHO didn't declare a global emergency I knew immediately they had made a mistake and would soon be forced to correct it. That is now playing out. I try to see things logically. Right now, either people are in denial or downplaying what they HOPE is not happening, or following the logic, math, and epidemiology. Another prediction, right now major airlines are cancelling flights to/from China. Soon, I think within about four to five days, the US will be forced halt all Chinese airline flights. They already floated the "trial balloon". I think the CDC is holding off on some data for a while until they can get plans in place. They release data on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Be prepared for some news, is what I think. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 4:18pm
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Ruh-ro. Today's new figures puts us ABOVE THE line with continued exponential growth: Coronavirus update: - 7,811 confirmed cases worldwide - 12,167 suspected cases - 170 fatalities - 1,370 in serious/critical condition - 124 treated and released - All regions of China reporting cases - 17 countries reporting cases https://twitter.com/BNODesk" rel="nofollow - https://twitter.com/BNODesk Yikes!! My prediction - WHO will belatedly issue a worldwide pandemic alert tomorrow, simultaneously with CDC declaration of additional US cases. Also, see more airlines shut down all airline travel to China, followed by most countries closing off Chinese airline carriers. Like Boeing's plane 727-MAX, the US is going to be leading from behind on this one, following other countries. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 6:11pm
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Tomorrow's prediction is for 11,090 total infections, and 229 total deaths. Let's see. Thailand has now admitted they can't stop the spread of the virus, and they are at 14 infections now, with thousands of travelers from Wuhan in the past month. The battle to control the infection is now lost until a vaccine or cure or effective treatment is found, or it mutates, I believe. It's now only a matter of time and degree to how fast, to where, and to whom, it spreads. There is, I fear, even a chance it may be declared a national security event. Look at how China has essentially ground to a halt. With SARS, it was for a fairly short term, this is much bigger, much faster. My contacts in China, not even in Hubei, say it's a state of emergency. Keep prepping. People will remember your (unheeded, likely) advice, and soon come to you. I am seriously considering going to my safe place, and SIP, as hard as it is for my brain to combat denial. I think I will know if that will be necessary in about two more weeks, or less, I believe. It depends on how the US reacts. I am reminded of Churchill's description of the US, paraphrasing...we do the right thing..eventually. |
Posted By: Usk
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 7:15pm
| Please stop with the panic tones. The current type A flu that has a vaccine you can still get has killed over 9000 people in the US alone. Many of these are children under 5 with known preexisting medical issues. This pandemic flu one of the ones we are way overdue for will take out the old and the young infirm for the next 6 months in countries with poor medical facilities . A vaccine will be here within that time. This novel strain already has been sequenced by the Chinese and shared with the world. Many labs are working off prior coronavirus strains with vaccines already cutting the time to manufacturing vaccines in half. Most everyone in this forum are prepping . We know how to SIP. If you still don’t its time to learn. For the rest of us take a deep breath and lets calmly go forward into this calamity |
Posted By: ME163
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:09pm
| We have every reason to be worried. My Girlfriend has many health issues. I have many health issues. The corona virus attacks the lungs and in some cases is followed by ADRS. Both of us are using sleep machines. She has a spinal cord injury and COPD. I have Cerebral Palsy, It is hard already for us. We are prepping the best we can given our limitations. I can be prepped and ready for SIP in 30 minutes. We are doing the very best we can given our limits. We are going to try to do the best we can. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:30pm
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I suppose you are correct, no need to sound panicked. It is a bit much of a doom and gloom. Thank you for that. But it is certainly concerning. I do believe that things will be alright in the end. I was just reading the story of vaccine pioneer, Edward Jenner, a fascinating story if you have a bit of time. In the late 1700s, smallpox killed 10% up to 20% of the English population. His brilliant observation that cowpox was quite similar to smallpox, led hi to test on James Phillips, the 8 year old son of his gardener (probably didn't get permission I imagine) to deliberately infect him with cowpox from the pus of an infected milkmaid. When the boy came down with a fever but recovered, he deliberately infected him this time with pus from a smallpox victim, this time he survived well. Fortunately, we have made incredible advances in the development of vaccines as you noted, so now it's just a matter of time. I hope many can protect themselves long enough until it is available. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Jenner" rel="nofollow - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Jenner |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:37pm
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Usk, I think a degree of panic amongst us is a good thing. The time for laissez faire has long since passed. I also don't think we should casually talk about thinning out the old, young and infirm. This epidemic may turn out to be less serious in time but that is currently not looking likely. Right now, with the information we have to hand, I think the tone of slight panic is an appropriate response and will serve to keep all us regulars on track and will convey the correct level of seriousness to any new members or visitors. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:49pm
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I agree Kiwimum...many people who do not prep will come to this site and ask what to do. We have always said purchase can goods you always use just get more of them, get batteries, keep your gas tank full, buy bottle water. None of us has panicked but we just stepped up what we are keeping in our homes as extra food, water, drugs and candies  . We are all very concerned because if this is bad and spreads here and in NZ we want to help as many people as we can.
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Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 29 2020 at 8:55pm
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That's great, practical, and healthy advice, Flumom. Being prepared, being neighborly, being kind. On another note, President Trump has now formed a nCoV Task Force. I think the President is taking this seriously, and will do whatever he has to do to protect the US, this I am certain. I hope he is getting good advice. Here's a list of those on the task force. Note the Homeland Security and National Security participants. As I mentioned, "national security." But they are deputies, not a top level task force, so it seems it's not presenting as a threat to the US as it is right now in China. In China, it seems it has the potential to be extremely economically, and potentially politically destabilizing, the "black swan" events investors talk about. 
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Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:52am
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Yep i agree. She's full blown pandemic! I ran a few graphs. The R0 is approximately R2.5 over a 10 day cycle. I consider myself a fence sitter having experienced many viruses here on this site. However. This one has everything adding up to a grand catastrophe. The authorities wont be able to keep up. There will be panic. Hospitals will overflow. Its going to be chaos. PLEASE REST ASSURED The death rate is not high. I don't believe that many will die as the death rate is less than 1%. You can guarantee people will panic so be careful. good luck all.. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:50am
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Thanks for your insight and wishes Cobber. Would you mind posting one or two of the data points/graphs you used to compute Ro? The Chinese scientists just published it as 4.08. And, yes, I think it's too late to contain this. It's just a matter of time, where, when, how long. Vaccine development will become a national security priority, and the elite in Washington, first responders, hospital and lab personnel, and anyone with connections will get it first of course. Look at Wuhan right now. That's how other Chinese cities may shortly become. Then Vietnam...Vietnam is going to be endemic in a month or two I fear, and hit just about everyone. Impossible to stop. California, right now, I fear, is about 10-14 days into the transmission cycle and there is nothing the authorities can (will?) do about it. I believe it's transmitting a symptomatically. Take care, don't panic, be well. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 8:12am
New graphs today:      
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Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 8:18am
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It’ll be interesting to see what today’s numbers look like. They jumped 1700 yesterday, and 800 the day before, so if it continues to trend upward like that, we should see an increase in the region of 3400. That should put us at around 11400 “official” cases. We’ll see. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 8:19am
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That is one of the most classic cases of an exponential curve I have ever seen. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 9:48am
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Some say, that it's too perfectly aligned to an exponential curve, and represents China deliberately obscuring/managing the numbers. Senator Cotton says China is lying. I lived there for five years. I agree. It's worse than that curve. My advice is to quietly prepare. It's too late to contain. People are going to start really freaking out, more and more each day, I fear. Remain calm. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 9:52am
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What's really frightening, is, if you are watching the numbers, is that total deaths are greater than total recovered right now, 171 to 143. That's of a set of confirmed, rather than total infected who have survived. https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" rel="nofollow - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 10:18am
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First confirmed case of H2H transmission in the US being reported in Chicago. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 10:22am
Or “cured” as many people seem to think. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 11:58am
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I don't think there is cause for "panic" but rather very careful consideration of the facts: What we know: (1) The charts, graphs, and known information says this is getting larger in an exponential way. (2) The sanctioned news (official news) coming out is dire. (3) Social media, and local news points to the difficulties with food, medicine and other shortages. (4) Never in modern history has a government tried such a massive quarantine before. (5) The spread and numbers are closely following projections, and have NOT deviated very much. What we do NOT know: (6) We don't yet know what the societal, political, and economic ramifications will be in short term, or long term. (there are many industries whose supply chains have already been interrupted, we are just now seeing tiny examples of the ripple effect) (7) The true CFR, Ro (good ideas, but not concrete yet) (8) What the virus will do in NA, EU, Africa, and elsewhere. (9) What the global response will be in western countries, and how effective the containment measures will be. Taking everything together it looks bad, but things looked bad during SAR's, the bird flue and others at the beginning..... The difference is the exponential and short window this time for this bug. If the graphs, and numbers hold, It's going to be bad. I hope it isn't, and i hope the raw numbers are wrong. Or in other words, this bug already quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, and walks like a duck, the only thing left to see is if it can fly and swim. Just my 2 cents. ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 12:08pm
Yep. What pheasant said  ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: roni3470
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 1:28pm
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Babycat - can you please keep posting your graph from the first note with updated stats? I may just build a spreadsheet myself but don't wan tot have to do it over again! ------------- NOW is the Season to Know that Everything you Do is Sacred |
Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:03pm
Heres the chart. I pegged the start in November. This is an R2.5 and ten day cycle. 
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Posted By: roni3470
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:12pm
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What are the numbers from today? I don't see them anywhere! ------------- NOW is the Season to Know that Everything you Do is Sacred |
Posted By: LittleJake
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:15pm
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Having worked on a possible H5N1 out break in 05. Here is a projection. World wide full exposure by the 4th of July. No vac will be ready by then. This takes into account maximum efforts to slow the spread down and people doing their best to not get sick. Based just on my previous work and how we saw the Bird flu play out, I would expect most of the power grid to stay up and local water supply to stay active. The JIT supply lines will present a problem for those that have not prepared for this. I suspect that no one on this site will be caught with their pants down and not ready. ------------- Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused. |
Posted By: Guests
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:22pm
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Guys, it is not here in our backyard yet. When we see it spreading in the U.S. then we can start talking about panic. At this point I am looking at Chicago, the husband got it from the wife. Question how many people was the husband in contact with after the wife got sick??? This is what we need to be looking at! |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 4:36pm
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Way too early to panic and panic is never the right response. This is nasty and I personally beleieve, that it is far nastier than we are being told. But panic never helped anyone. It only gets in the way of being sensible. When the nasty finally arrives on your doorstep, THEN you SIP. Before that, stock up what you can and stop panicking over what you can't. Isolation is the key. The masks, glasses, gloves, aprons etc. offer a tiny bit of protection, alcohol gel slightly more, good hygene practices are better still and isolation is the best protection of all. You still have some prepping time. Our FluMom is worth listening to. She has the whole process pegged. I have watched what she said and it makes more sense than most people. You won't get soft, sloppy sentiment from her - just good solid commonn sense. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:04pm
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For those keeping a close eye on the numbers, here's a source with regularly updated totals: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/" rel="nofollow - https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ Currently 9822 worldwide cases (officially), 213 deaths as of 1/30 8:55 ET. Starting to deviate from prediction, but perhaps more of a function of lack of testing or testing kits. Apparently China has a current testing kit max production of 4,000/day which may be breached soon (if not already) |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:15pm
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Wow. So they won’t be able to count the infected soon? ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: roni3470
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:15pm
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I am so glad to see it go down from the predictions...this gives me hope! ------------- NOW is the Season to Know that Everything you Do is Sacred |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 7:18pm
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But I'm sure China will soon increase production of kits. They can, and do, anything they can in a big way when they want to, and this comes from the top (Emperor Xi). Xi must know that to lose this battle risks being seen as losing the 'mandate of heaven' in Chinese dynastic lore, and thus risks being pushed out. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 8:06pm
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Here's a response I posted in another thread, and I wanted to get more thoughts on here. It was in response as to why there are so few recoveries compared to deaths at the moment. Here's my theory: I think what's happening is a typical patient contracts it, it takes 7-10 days until they go to a hospital, a few days more to test and finally be admitted (have to fight to get there, otherwise there are MANY just suffering, and I presume, dying, at home), then while at hospital, deteriorate over maybe 7-10 more days, into more serious and then critical phases, then either death or recovery. So think of it like a funnel, and those are the numbers coming out at the end. It's a process that began in earnest around 12/15, got to 41 infected by 12/31, then has been adding and exploding since then. So, if the typical disease progression from infection to death and/or recovery is about 21-24 days, then that would explain the much smaller numbers of those at the moment. If this theory holds true, the number of dead may go from linear to exponential quite shortly, in a matter of 3-5 days. And, this also implies that of the 9800 currently infected, over half of them may die. Is this possible? I mean, wouldn't China want to play up the recoveries? Could it just mean that they are reluctant to release to ensure they are not infectious? I saw some pictures yesterday of recovered patients being released in my former city, so I doubt that's an issue now. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 9:18pm
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This fresh tweet from BNO indicates the problem: BNO Newsroom @BNODesk · 18m The numbers are from the day before. There are also limitations to how many people can get tested every day. Right now there are 9,822 confirmed cases but more than 15,000 are still being tested -- That means there are, right now, likely 25,000 probable cases in China, since, remember, the docs are only testing if a patient is obviously extremely ill. as many reports have suggested, with such a limited testing kit supply. Right there, is the bottleneck. Still exponential. Remember the reports last week, or 90,000 or more? True. China now have over 100,000 under observation. This also means, prepare for exponentially rising confirmed numbers, closer to 25,000 in two, maybe three days. This indicates extreme infectiousness, as suggested also by the dozens of countries now with confirmed cases. Ro could, as China has indicated, be closer to 4. I believe it's no longer possible to contain this, only delaying it to your door, and figuring out the actual CFR. The Titanic has just hit an iceberg, and people are still kicking around the ice on the deck. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 30 2020 at 11:10pm
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CHINA TOTALS 9,701 confirmed 213 dead 1,527 serious 171 recovered 15,238 suspected 15,238 + 9701 = 24,939 probable. I'm sorry to keep being the bearer of bad news, but it's patently clear we should expect rapidly rising numbers in China (even if they are obscured/manipulated), and soon, elsewhere. These are not normal numbers for a bad flu season. Look at the evidence, it brought an entire province, and soon, an entire country, to a standstill and on its knees in about a month. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/" rel="nofollow - https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/01/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ Ro is a bit of a moot point right now. It's not even debatable it's sustained, efficient, and accelerating H2H transmission. If it gets an entry point, it exploits, efficiently. Patient to doctor in France, wife to husband in Chicago, wherever it goes, it infects. If there was transmission and infection that wasn't caught by health authorities running too far behind to catch up? Off to the races. It's already in the US. It's already in 21 countries now, and counting. In less than 45 days?? Please open your eyes and prepare now. We need more information on the mechanisms of infection, the CFR, infection onset and duration, etc. It's a time for the doctors, now, and the vaccine developers to race to save those who may be infected. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 1:51am
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I think the numbers are tailing off because China can't keep up with counting them. - We know they have insufficient kits (Thank you QuietPrepper*) BabyCat has pointed this out and so has FluMom** - both of whom seem to 'grock'the situation. I agree. In my humble opinion, the numbers are simply growing too large for the massively overstretched Chinese system to count. * http://www.avianflutalk.com/incredible-citizen-reporter-video-from-wuhan_topic40581_post282694.html?KW=test+kits#282694" rel="nofollow - http://www.avianflutalk.com/incredible-citizen-reporter-video-from-wuhan_topic40581_post282694.html?KW=test+kits#282694 ** http://www.avianflutalk.com/incredible-citizen-reporter-video-from-wuhan_topic40581_post282699.html?KW=test+kits#282699" rel="nofollow - http://www.avianflutalk.com/incredible-citizen-reporter-video-from-wuhan_topic40581_post282699.html?KW=test+kits#282699 ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 2:41am
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Phewww, I feel better, great news! If they run out of test kits the official numbers will drop! were saved. ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 3:11am
 ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: endman
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 5:20am
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Any new virus has potential to get much worse Yes flu is bad but we have vaccine This new one nobody knows it could kill 10k or 100k people Just my observation more people are sick now then a week ago |
Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 6:00am
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Running short on test kits is very common. I remember in a previous pandemic. The doctors and nurses were hoarding kits so they could test friends and relatives. It was amazing how many healthcare workers were popping up in the stats. I'm hearing the CFR is very low less than 1%. I'm also hearing about asymptomatic cases especially in children. Even though this will be a pandemic. I still think its a powderpuff. |
Posted By: Emswally
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 7:42am
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It all depends on if the virus can be transmitted To another human while the carrier is not showing Symptoms. How can you really screen infected Who show no signs ? A game of catch up that Can’t be won. Pray for the best outcome. Prepare For the worst. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 7:51am
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It can. 1/30 New England Journal of Medicine letter describes German case of Chinese woman visiting Germany. Met with German guy, transmitted to him, he transmitted it to two others who never had contact with her. Stay calm, prep. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 7:56am
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This is what I mean. I think the CFR of 3% is too low. It's going to take time for the CFR to catch up to the truer number. This article, and this website, has great updates on nCoV: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/burning-bodies-secret-new-accounts-wuhan-detail-coronavirus-outbreak https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/corona%20virus%20vs%20sars_0.png?itok=z6ZPLOZq 
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Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:05am
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That beautifully illustrates my point. Thank you. Not only does the new virus have a far wider, faster spread, but it kills more slowly, so the discrepancy between light blue and dark blue lines is greater. We still do not know how many undiagnosed and asymptomatic cases there are, so each of them will lower the death rate somewhat. It will be a long time before those things come to light. The advice remains the same: "Preparation not panic." ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:49am
What is REALLY interesting in looking at this graph (and the data from 1/29 of 9822 infections closely matches the prediction, is that the growth curve multiplier of 53% is very close to the ratio of "official" deaths/recoveries 213/187 = .53.25%!!
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Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 9:13am
Word of the day: "escape velocity." The moment a virus reaches critical mass and explodes exponentially, essentially "uncontained." 
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Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 10:21am
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Keep watching the incubation/infection time lag period, compared to the number of infections in countries besides China... This genie is out of the bottle. Now what's the real timeline of disease progression and CFR? 
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Posted By: AlexSun
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 11:57am
| According to incubation/infection time lag my predictions are 290 death on last update for 1th of February and a scary number between 5000-7000 worldwide i'm afraid, not just in mainland China! |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 12:07pm
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Here's an concerning prediction from Twitter: "Angry Arkie @ArkieAngry · 2h Replying to @stonygirl and @SenTomCotton 1.71 million will die of coronavirus related respiratory failure by about mid February. The epidemiology predictive models demonstrate exponential spread.. while I never agree with Cotton.. I do on this one." 
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Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 12:10pm
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Posted By: AlexSun
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 12:43pm
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Key facts Pneumonia accounts for 15% of all deaths of children under 5 years old, killing 808 694 children in 2017. Pneumonia can be caused by viruses, bacteria, or fungi. Pneumonia can be prevented by immunization, adequate nutrition, and by addressing environmental factors. Pneumonia caused by bacteria can be treated with antibiotics, but only one third of children with pneumonia receive the antibiotics they need. Pneumonia is a form of acute respiratory infection that affects the lungs. The lungs are made up of small sacs called alveoli, which fill with air when a healthy person breathes. When an individual has pneumonia, the alveoli are filled with pus and fluid, which makes breathing painful and limits oxygen intake. Pneumonia is the single largest infectious cause of death in children worldwide. Pneumonia killed 808 694 children under the age of 5 in 2017, accounting for 15% of all deaths of children under five years old. Children can be protected from pneumonia, it can be prevented with simple interventions, and treated with low-cost, low-tech medication and care.Pneumonia affects children and families everywhere, but is most prevalent in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. According to medical reference pneumonia it's very close to Coronavirus on icubation time and effects. https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pneumonia" rel="nofollow - https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/pneumonia |
Posted By: Lonewolf
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 12:58pm
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Alexsun. This pneumonia is caused by a coronavirus not bacteria so although some of the info you posted is correct. This coronavirus's pneumonia can not be avoided at this time if you come in contact with it and come down with it. Neither by vaccination or antibiotics. Unfortunately neither will work For pneumonia there are several things that can help reduce the severity though. Not smoking ( thankfully i quit not long ago) zinc acetate or zinc glutamate supplements (taken as soon as possible before or at onset) vita D, garlic, oregano oil (antivirals), onion, olive leaf extract, licorice tea. etc. |
Posted By: Emswally
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:04pm
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Supposed research paper out of China stating Ro is At 4.08 |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:13pm
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11948 cases now, with 259 deaths. About the same increase as yesterday, and deaths are at 259. Anyone buying it? ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 4:27pm
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Nope! ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: WitchMisspelled
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 7:17pm
| So what do you all think the odds are that we're going to start seeing clusters next week? |
Posted By: BeachMama
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 8:48pm
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We have a cluster in Germany right now — the Bavarian folks who were infected by a colleague. One of them has a child who has become ill. Spain’s diagnosis is apparently a person who came into contact with one of the Bavarian cluster. It seems we have a potential cluster in Chicago forming, as well — an infant who was exposed to the two ill people there has developed a fever. Of course, little ones pop fever all the time, so that could be totally unrelated. Time will tell. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 11:16pm
     
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Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: January 31 2020 at 11:20pm
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Note on exponential modeling, there does appear to be some tapering recently, but I believe it may reflect the timing of the reporting for the day, as daily figures tend to come out late. The CFR also seems to have stabilized at 2.2,2.1 based on this data, which although is likely circumspect, is all we have to go on. |
Posted By: Usk
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 4:43am
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Your graphing makes me wonder if it can prove the Chinese are lying about their numbers. They may just be sending out numbers that follow a graph of their design to not panic the rest of us. Boots on the ground and cases globally do not fit your 2 R0 |
Posted By: ME163
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 5:05am
| The lancet article blows the case levels to smithereens. THE DEATH RATE must be much higher than reported.... So therefore the 4.08 Ro is more plausible than the Chinese or the US say.... |
Posted By: roni3470
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 8:19am
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The death rate is no doubt higher, but also since they don't have test kits the actual number of cases is higher so not sure if the 2.1% would change much. Thoughts? ------------- NOW is the Season to Know that Everything you Do is Sacred |
Posted By: Usk
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 8:54am
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From virologist in the hot zone HEALTHVirologist Who Visited Wuhan Says Coronavirus is “Out of Control” Fears scale of infection could be 10 times higher than SARS. Published 1 week ago on 24 January, 2020 Paul Joseph Watson A top virologist who was involved in the response to SARS says he has visited Wuhan, China and believes that the coronavirus is “out of control.” Dr. Guan Check it out: https://summit.news/2020/01/30/coronavirus-model-predicts-183-million-infections-before-the-end-of-february/" rel="nofollow - https://summit.news/2020/01/30/coronavirus-model-predicts-183-million-infections-before-the-end-of-february/ |
Posted By: Notanewbie
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 12:46pm
| The 1918 flu came in three waves, each one more deadly. Was there mutations that made H2H easier or more virulent? |
Posted By: jacksdad
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 1:01pm
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A bit of both, I imagine. The first wave was considered to be no more than a bad seasonal flu at the time, but the second wave in the later part of 1918 infected far more, with much higher lethality. This virus has already shown it’s ability to mutate if the 33 variants are indeed out there. That makes it hard to know what it can do as it’s exposed to an exponentially larger group of hosts (you and me...). If it continues to hone it’s skills, all bets are potentially off. ------------- "Buy it cheap. Stack it deep" "Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary. |
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 2:10pm
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I have been waiting for the reported numbers to very from the projections since 1/23 and they have not...... I keep holding my tongue,and forcing myself to say, nahhh it will stop or slow down, or something will change. I refuse to be an alarmist, but keep getting stuff in order, and hang on. Everyone also needs to be ready for the business, and economic impact of this, if the projections hold, our jobs and income will be seriously impacted, or cut off....IMO ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Posted By: LCfromFL
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 3:12pm
Pheasant - which part of FL are you in? I'm near Jax. How are the stores near you? I was in a local Winn Dixie today and the only thing that seemed to be out of stock was some of the dried rice. The Home Depot and Lowe's I went to today had N95s and goggles - but didn't have a lot left. None in the paint section but I found some over where they have safety goggles. I always take advantage of the BOGO deals at Publix or WD...but in the last couple of weeks, I've stepped it up. We lost most of our preps from flooding with Hurricane Irma a couple of years ago. I've been working to restock things and I'm feeling much better about our readiness now. |
Posted By: Emswally
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 3:31pm
| The Ro of 4.08 is from a Chinese research group |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 4:34pm
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Latest numbers. I'm too busy prepping to do the charts. BNO Newsroom @BNODesk · 18m Coronavirus update: - 14,550 confirmed cases worldwide - 19,544 suspected cases - 304 fatalities - 2,110 in serious/critical condition - 328 in China treated and released - Biggest daily increase so far - 24 countries reporting cases At least on paper, appears to be tapering, but still growing exponentially. Also the PFR is lower to 304 / 339. I'm sure this isn't accurate though, as many have likely died or recovered and are not recorded. |
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: February 01 2020 at 6:30pm
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Hi Lc, Marion county here, Walmart is out of surgical masks, haven't looked for other's, all else looks good. ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 1:09am
 Still rising like a rocket. Likely limited by test availability. Let's pray that the quarantine effect from Jan. 21 starts showing up and starts bending this sucker. It's been about 10 days since then, right about the time the numbers should start reflecting it, if the Chinese don' keep playing obscure the real numbers, and try to count all those infected at home. Even if they don't, it should still show up in the official data. |
Posted By: Pandemic
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 4:47am
| How this plays outside of China maybe revealing. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 4:50am
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My thoughts exactly! ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 12:34pm
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Discussed early, important point recent Lancet article predicts exponential growth outside of Wuhan, lag time 1-2 weeks. (Can also infer exponential growth outside of China). "If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks." https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext    Upshot: don't wait until you are told what to do, start preparing now for WHO predicted local outbooks. If 2019-nCoV was (or is) confirmed in your local area, take prepping seriously and calmly, is my recommendation. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 12:35pm
| What's interesting is the graph which shows the exponential rate outside Wuhan, and outside China as nearly identical. Wuhan is overwhelmed, thus hiding the true numbers. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 1:22pm
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Comments from the Twitterverse: Confluence Capital @YYC_Confluence "As a non-expert in all things #coronavirus😆, I feel it's still important to goal-post outcomes. Using Hubei infection data (~60 MM people region) and S-Curves (no insane exponential garbage), it suggests early innings, 1% total pop infected ... small %, large headline risk ..."  "Confluence Capital @YYC_Confluence · 18m Replying to @YYC_Confluence Of interest, other regions, like #Zhejiang, #Guangdong, #Henan have earlier & spottier data (not worth posting), but don't seem to be nearly as aggressive thus far - so efforts to contain seem to be having a positive effect there. Confluence Capital @YYC_Confluence · 17m And keep in mind, even #Hubei, the epicenter with the longest dataset available, is effectively an N=14 observation exercise (many of the 12h updates are unch. versus priors, so not valid "updates"). So still a lot of moving parts here." |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 6:29pm
 
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Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 02 2020 at 7:55pm
Exactly! I was in India during the big Ebola epidemic in 2014, and the Indian government was paralyzed with the thought of Ebola coming into their country. With their over-crowding and total lack of sanitation, any infectious outbreak would be devastating. nCoV2019 has a lower case fatality rate than SARS, and we haven't noticed a "super-spreader" yet as we did with SARS, but the outbreak is still evolving, thanks to the stupidity of the Chinese government. I don't worry about the global community as much as mainland China, it won't be long before they start shooting folks with sniffles (I'm serious). ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:10am
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I've seen approcryphal youtube video of hazmat suit wearing officials with large rifles. Even if a spoof, it shows what the Chinese man in the street is thinking. (Expecting?) ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: John Ray
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 7:11am
| I agree. They always have when they are stressed. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 10:29am
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Very good website with both linear and logarithmic graphs of virus infections and deaths: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  
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Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 10:31am
| There is clearly some bending at the log scale. Good news, as the Chinese quarantine effect may be starting to show up. Either that, like many others, even the NYT, is that the Chinese are just intentionally manipulating the reported numbers. After my experience in China, I'd bet it's the latter. Still, the quarantine effect may actually be there, just that imagine reported numbers at 10-20% of actual. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 10:46am
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Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 11:32am
 Optimistic case? |
Posted By: Pandemic
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 12:41pm
| That would be better news if confirmed 🙏🙏🙏. Theres several Youtube vloggers on the ground in the epicentre. Their reports are very mixed. No doubt, there is censorship. To what degree ??! |
Posted By: RFlagg
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 1:23pm
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This is my first post. I read the medium article that since been taken down (finally found it, somebody saved it) Until I read this article by https://jameslyonsweiler.com/" rel="nofollow - https://jameslyonsweiler.com/ . That is the root page, the article is 'On the origins of the 2019 nCoV virus, Wuhan, China' The article seems to be the best I've seen so far that explains the possibilities of 2019 nCoV beginning. It gives 4 possibilities and one of them is the accidental release of a virus that (I think) was intended to be a vaccine for China, researched in secret (of course). This makes the most sense to me simply because it doesn't make sense for China to deliberately kill their own people. It also makes sense because for them politics overrides everything. In this case, James Weiler (I assume) says that China has a huge humanitarian problem on it's hands, BUT it should NOT spread out of China the same way that it is spreading IN CHINA. The article just seems to me to be the best one that I have read. I'm going to post this in other sites similar to avianflutalk.com. I would like other people's opinion on this. Eventually me may find the truth, hopefully (aside from everybody catching 2019 nCoV too) Richard |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 1:31pm
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This guy is a kook. 5 minutes of trawling through his site uncovered too many tin hat conspiracies and factual inaccuracies. He may write books, but so did, Tuesday Lobsang Rampa, David Ike and a host of bigger loonies. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: RFlagg
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 1:32pm
| What do you think is the best explanation? |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 1:40pm
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I think it a natural mutation. China has been playing Russian roulette with its saving-face policies, wet markets and hygene practices for decades. I am not saying it can't be a biowarfare escape. It does tick all the boxes for one. But nature can do everything to produce this without any help from us. When it comes down to it, I don't care. It is here now and we must deal with the consequences. Finding out it was natural or engineered does not help us save any lives. If it was an accidental escape, then China is paying dearly for its stupidity. If it was natural, ditto. Looking for someone to blame is a pointless waste of energy that could be used to save lives. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 3:14pm
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I Agree (again with Technophobe) Pointing fingers is futile....and juvenile It's like at work if you get a cold and someone gets it the day after And they blame You.... Childish...... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖 Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 03 2020 at 3:37pm
I agree, Techno. China plays Russian roulette with their food supply, allowing all sorts of wild animals to intermingle in their wet-market environment. These critters shed & pass viruses back and forth, so the bats infect the civets, civets infect people etc. This doesn't have the hallmarks of a bioweapon release. It isn't nearly deadly enough. Trust me. ------------- CRS, DrPH |