Going to Defcon 6 & Declaring Pandemic
Printed From: Avian Flu Talk
Category: Main Forums
Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=41181
Printed Date: April 22 2024 at 11:17pm
Topic: Going to Defcon 6 & Declaring Pandemic
Posted By: Albert
Subject: Going to Defcon 6 & Declaring Pandemic
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 11:55am
|
Hello, friends! Temporary announcement. We're now going to Defcon 6 and declaring a pandemic. The WHO will declare it soon, but not waiting for it. |
Replies:
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 12:33pm
|
WOW! Albert! I think you are correct! I don't remember have we ever gone to a Alert Level 6? I know Chuck does not see that this is very serious but my concern is when people panic everything will go down the tubes very fast. This country is a I will take care of me and SCREW everyone else. Like I said, when people start dying from this and schools close down TSWHTF. I just finished doing my plywood needs just in case people get crazy and decide they want to try and break my 6 mil filmed windows...LOL! Surprise folks it will take you 10 minutes to try and get in by that time I will be ready! Now I have to take the time and effort to rent the truck and get this stuff...lucky the hardware store will cut the pieces like I need. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:07pm
|
Thank you FM. I love Chuck lol , but he's a Fed lol. Joke lol Best to prepare. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:09pm
|
Bottom line - a pandemic has begun. If you dispute this than you can always argue your case. Chuck? ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:13pm
| Albert you need to put this as a sticky so everyone is aware. We all need to get our scrip meds which I just did and last minute items. I am thinking hard what I really need and do not have...Not MUCH luckily but people on our Forum need to know. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:13pm
|
We're declaring a pandemic here. It could be slow moving, but prepare none the less. The WHO will declare it shortly. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:14pm
Ok ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
FluMom wrote:Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:14pm
It was a pandemic waiting to happen from day one, all the right ingredients = virus with no vaccine, significant number of mild cases that are hard to trace, origin in China, began during Chinese holiday etc. The question isn't "will this be a pandemic?" but "will it have public health significance?" I still say "not so much." We can control our exposure in the USA with social distancing, it has a low CFR for a new zoonotic infection, and it will, sadly, take down the old and infirm, leaving the young spared. Our biggest enemy is fear and panic, and AFT is stoking this. I am not a fed, but a subject matter expert in public health with international reputation....trained in all the stuff we talk about on here. Believe me, there are MUCH worse scenarios than this cold virus gone nuts. I could tell you, but somebody would then kill me. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:15pm
That made me really LOL! 
|
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:18pm
|
Admitedly I am not quite 60 yet, but Hubby is 75, a cancer patient (in remission) and has high blood pressure. He is an ex smoker too. So don't tell me this is nothing to worry about!! This has me terrified. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:31pm
|
I don't think we stoke panic Chuck we are just trying to keep our families and ourselves alive. I have lost a child and do not EVER want to do that again. As my husband was dying he would say, "It is not our son dying, I am ok with this." So believe me people will panic without our help as soon as they see people they know or family members die or they close the schools. Albert tried to get people from FB to come here and learn...they did not come from what I have seen. So panic will happen no matter what we say. |
Posted By: ME163
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:38pm
| Ok, Albert has been right before and this is nothing to sneer at, At least I would say that this could become a pandemic. I would honestly say that this is a at least defcon 5. We do need to listen to our resident expert opinion. Prepare as if a pandemic is happening and get the meds that we need etc and supplies are ready. We don't need to get anything else. We will go to Walmart Tuesday and get some more water and maybe a few comfort foods. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:39pm
|
I felt this had the potential almost four weeks ago to the day. I researched, looked at the data, what we knew/didn't know, and started social distancing, limiting social exposure (movies at home, church online, consolidating shopping trips, ordering online more, etc. ) about two weeks ago. But I'm in high probability area (Bay Area, CA). Problem is, perhaps like some here, I can't control who my family comes into contact with every day at this point. For that to change, it will take more confirmed local cases/deaths (I hope not!), and a more overt governmental/local health response. So, I'm doing my best to prepare, stock, stay healthy, and informing those close to me to practice solid hygiene habits. If it is to be, it is to be. CRS is right about not panicking, as it doesn't help. It's likely some will die, hopefully not many, but that's not going to be a comfort to those that die or lose loved ones. For me, faith helps. As my elderly folks said when I explained the outlines of the danger, "Well, if you're a believer, you'll just get to the party earlier than you thought." Of course, they'll take precautions but ultimately, we should reflect on the temporal nature of life, and how precious each day truly is. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:41pm
|
If we overreact - we look silly. If we underreact - we look damaged - or even good in black. Err on the side of caution. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:42pm
|
Don't worry too much........
No-one gets out of this life Alive...... The planet needs to get rid of a few billions of us Humans We killing it......and all the creatures that we make extinct ...... For our Ego's......and Money........ That's how i see it ......... I never worry What will be, will be...... THE EARTH WILL SURVIVE...... we will be thinned out a bit... No big deal....... Don't Panic,Keep Calm, Carry On...... Do what you do best...... STAY SMART...... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź–– Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:45pm
|
Good call. I think it's a pandemic. It's spreading so fast. I agree with Chuck that for most people it will be a mild illness BUT the real problem will be the number of people who get seriously ill. There isn't a country in the world that has thousands of empty intensive care beds with staff just waiting for a pandemic. We're going to see many people die who would have survived under normal circumstances. We just don't have the facilities, staff or supplies to cope with huge numbers of very sick people. So we've got to just try not to catch it in the first place. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: Pixie
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:48pm
|
Over the years we all tracked H5n1,Swine,Ebola,Mers ,at times wondering if this is gonna be the big one,then elatedly we got to breath a sigh of relief every time. We are going to be witnesses to a life changing historic event,not seen since 1918 Spanish Flu. Even with a CFR of 2%, the loss of life will be tremendous, This will stretch our limits to the max,physically and emotionally. Betty Davis once said"fasten your seatbelt,it's gonna be a bumpy ride"
|
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:49pm
| You are all correct! We seem panicked but I am not because I will most likely be one of the first to get this crap. I work with kids who travel the world so I am at ground O. Just a fact! |
Posted By: Tabitha111
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:51pm
| As soon as one HCW gets it and dies in the US, everyone will panic.You won't be able to placate the masses by telling them its "mild" and only "your elderly parents, aunts and uncles, grandmas and grandpas will succumb, so don't you worry" |
Posted By: John L.
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 1:57pm
|
One key issue people are missing is that, yes the death rate is about 2%, but another 8% get very sick and only survive via extreme support like ventilators. And these will be in short supply here, and are in no supply in parts of Africa and the Middle East. That is why this could get bad, though not a 1918 again at least. It is obvious to me that initial pandemic spread has now begun in Japan, Iraq and Italy. I hope for a Miracle like warm weather impediment, but know better. I support Albert's decision. ------------- John L. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:02pm
|
AFT going to Defcon 6
Is not going to panic the Masses The BBC will do that It's all over the News...... South Korea,Italy,Iran ...... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź–– Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:13pm
|
https://youtu.be/zAyjkaFYnzE" rel="nofollow - https://youtu.be/zAyjkaFYnzE ........ Best show ever....... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź–– Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Newbie1A
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:15pm
|
Ok, this is likely going to make me sound like an idiot... but where do we see the defcon 5, 6 etc rating???? It used to be up on the right hand side of home screen, but I haven't seen it in 'forever'...? Did it get moved or...? I remember there being discussion about it (at/after prev. big ebola outbreak) and I didn't like not being able to see it on phone, but now I can't see it at all??? And I do think a 6 is correct. I do think WHO (aka WTF) will be forced to admit pandemic soon... I don't believe it's 'the big slate wiper' but as I posted 2% number the other day - it's still a lot of ppl - and yes, the planet needs a huge reduction. The 5% needing ICU is going to claim more lives as we just don't have those numbers of beds (jmo)... I also believe the economic fallout and supply chain disruptions COULD kill as many as the virus itself. Lack of antibiotics, heart meds and so many more - just one example of how. ------------- If it's to be - it's up to me! |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:34pm
| It is on Adobe Flash Player and it is going away Dec 2020. So no one is using it. Albert pays already too much I am sure for this site and all he does so I am sure when he can he will change it from Adobe to what ever is out there and new. I only know this because I just got a new computer and I asked my computer guy why Adobe FP did not show up so he told me the above. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:37pm
Excellent post. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:39pm
Hi fm. Working on it all. Fully understand we can't upload images and videos, and working on it ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:41pm
| Hey I knew you were you have enough to worry about than that crap! You do so much already we have a lot to thank you for. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:49pm
|
Yes, Albert: THANKS!! ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:53pm
|
What is sad, disgusting, infuriating, and completely avoidable is that the WHO should have declared Phase 5 two weeks ago, with Singapore, Japan, etc. cases. The WHO is clueless. Their new motto should be: "WHO KNOWS? WE SURE DON'T." Phase 5 was designed to give CLEAR WARNING of a possible pandemic. Now, it is upon us, and they are caught flat-footed AGAIN, "leading from behind" only when it is OBVIOUS to all. Yes, they'll declare Phase 5 this week I think, then, after much waffling, belatedly a 6. Then, again, it's obvious to all. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:13pm
|
No doubt a pandemic has begun. Too much community spread emerging and not tied to China. The next pandemic has begun, in my opinion. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:16pm
| I agree as I am now leaving to get my meds since the pharmacy just said it was ready. I am going to wait on getting plywood would like to have my son here to help, but getting last minute items this week. I want to be ready and not looking for stuff I need at the last minute. |
Posted By: admin
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:22pm
Going to prep a little myself. |
Posted By: Emswally
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:24pm
|
I can’t wait. Going to be transporting people. I’m sure the company I work for is going to tell us that the N 95 mask , gloves and a gown are adequate to protect us. Of course once ICUs are inundated there won’t be a need to transport patients to higher care facilities in the bigger cities in Western US. Predict refusals to transport without an isolation barrier or pod. We are so Ill prepared for this. |
Posted By: Rjw
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:33pm
| To me babycats graphs prove Albert is right. China's extreme actions show something is up, has done for a while. Actions speak louder then words. When they closed down cities, unprecedented. I took notice then. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 3:38pm
If someone were to design a bioweapon with really high leathality and rapid disease progression, it would probably kill very few. Truly fast lethal viruses burn themselves out as people die before they can spread it much further. Ebola has a huge death rate, but it rarely makes it out of Africa and when it does it is intercepted relatively easily. Conversely, a bug which leaves the best superspreaders (kids) asymptomatic and takes a long time to develop, but is not all that deadly gets time to spread massively. Now, I am not saying this is a bioweapon. I don't think it is. But it sure ticks all the boxes for the damage one could do, assuming it was the infrastructure of 'the enemy' you wanted to wreck. Most senior civil servants are over 60 (ring a bell Chuck?) as are a large number of politicians and the experts in many fields. The "maim one of 'the enemy's' soldiers and you take 7 people out of the theatre" also applies, with the huge length of time it puts people in the ICU for. The strength lies in the hands of the young, but the wisdom and knowledge lies in the hands of the older. I think there is loads to worry about. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Diligent
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:15pm
|
Moreover, declaring Status Pandemic - then by extension { absent a viable vaccine } next major announcement - Declaration of Martial Law - USA |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:22pm
|
Maybe not tomorrow, but soon Dilligent. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Sheep Lady
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:23pm
Is there a protocol for this Albert? ------------- Sheep Lady |
Posted By: marhall law
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:25pm
| so what does defcon 6 mean? |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:50pm
|
Sheep Lady and Marhall law Defcon 6 means we have a pandemic coming at us very soon...like maybe 1 - 2 -3 months out or less no one knows but it is getting very wide spread. So many of us who are preppers are getting our last things we need like script meds, otc meds and other things we may need to SIP. Shelter In Place SIP. China has SIP millions of people Italy has SIP 10 cities and we know other countries and cities will be shut down. Now that being said do this all with the thought it could burn out...we are hoping but that may not happen and we could be similar to China in the next weeks or months. China has given us some time to get ready by isolating their population but not well enough not to spread it all over the world as you can see if you go to: https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6" rel="nofollow - https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 I hope this give you the information you wanted...please keep asking and we will try and explain what we all are talking about. |
Posted By: Usk
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:53pm
| If it is stopped by warm weather Why is it exploding in Australia which is in summer right now |
Posted By: Usk
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:54pm
| And Iran which has highs in the 80 |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 4:56pm
| I do not think weather is going to save us on this one guys. |
Posted By: SchrödingersCat
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 5:09pm
| Good call, Albert. I finished preps today. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 5:09pm
|
Don't think it's Exploding here, we have alot in quarantine , they citizens returning from affected area's
As far as I know ..... ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź–– Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: pheasant
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 5:16pm
|
Got mentally prepared, couple of weeks ago, finished updates this week....I'm still mulling CSR's synopsis on social unrest.....looking at rioting in Iran sways me a bit more, and the mask thing I'm still trying to digest...I simply refuse to be one of the poor sods in Iran or Italy under quarantine without a mask.....It defies logic to think you can buy stuff you need after the masses panic.......been through too many Hurricanes to buy that. There simply is not enough reasonable exits out of this...I cant find any good news except, "not as bad as SARS" "this is not 1918" etc: "It's not here yet" or (my favorite) "we are waiting for WHO guidance" or "there is no community spread at his time". To Albert, I know its a brave thing, and risky to commit to it, but I think Its prudent.....Ty and everyone here for the honesty, advice, and all you guys do....each and every opinion and personal thought is appreciated. Lastly, remember this: Being prepared is a good thing , It's biblical (every faith) and if it is done in a rational, responsible way it is of no harm...and you feel better after :) I remember every time after i prep and set everything up for a impending hurricane i feel infinitely better, and actually find myself "looking around" and marveling at the other people who did not. Crap, just as I'm writing this i remembered i forgot to restock the wine....wife will be pissed, thankfully, i still have time :P ------------- The only thing we have to fear, is fear itself......FDR |
Posted By: Usk
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:03pm
|
Oh yeah! I forgot the wine and beer too! Back to the store again for me!
|
Posted By: hoosiermom22
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:05pm
| Well, preps done (as much as possible) and headed out of town, for a few days at a festival. Prayers appreciated. Didn’t have the heart to cancel this last bit of fun for my hubby. |
Posted By: BeachMama
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:09pm
|
Albert, I respect and agree with your decision. The rapidly hastening pace of infections in Iran and Italy, as well as the CDC’s recent teleconference, has removed whatever small doubt I had as to whether this would take off as a legitimate pandemic. We sat down with our kids today and explained what “shelter in place” means, and how our lives may soon change. I am completely terrified because my son and husband are due to go on a school trip on March 5th — to GREECE. I don’t want them to go, but I also can’t tell them not to — right? This is such a scary, uncertain time. Thank you all for everything you do — for sharing your knowledge and your experience! |
Posted By: hoosiermom22
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:49pm
| Well, preps done (as much as possible) and headed out of town, for a few days at a festival. Prayers appreciated. Didn’t have the heart to cancel this last bit of fun for my hubby. |
Posted By: Glupa
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 6:56pm
|
Personally I don’t believe this is a slate wiper but that doesn’t mean its not a potential game changer. IMO anyone who thinks a SARS-2 pandemic is no biggie isn’t really thinking this through very thoroughly. Its NOT the same as the common cold. And, among other things, because this is a new virus MANY MANY more people will contract this bug than do the flu so doing a numbers to numbers dismissive comparison with the annual flu report is disingenuous. Even a CFR of 0.5 (around 5x the normal flu CFR) would be devastating if the majority of a given population contracts the virus. We of all people should know that its not only the bug that is dangerous in a pandemic but all the ancillary knock-on effects as well. Most of us here live in developed, industrialized nations (what many refer to as “first world nations”) whose populations are not prepared for the types of disruptions that accompany a pandemic situation. People are used to and even demand that they get what they want, when they want it and heaven forbid their internet search takes longer than 3 seconds or their latte is not as hot as they like it. People will panic and that panic will be fueled by others on social media. Nothing I’m saying is new to those of us who pay attention (pretty much everyone here) but there’s the other 98% who live their happy lives unburdened by our knowledge and who would have a sharp and slippery learning curve to catch up to reality. -Supply chain disruptions of various severities. -Shortages of medicine and medical treatment availability for routine illnesses and accidents. -Financial disruptions. -School closures and related workday child care problems. -Transportation service disruptions (ie: planes, trains and automobiles.). -Social disruptions (faith and leisure activities). -Potential layoffs and loss of income for the vast amount of workers whose jobs cannot be done remotely. -Overloaded Social Services Departments (Unemployment offices, public assistance offices and the like). And since we don’t live in totalitarian societies the draconian measures taken by the Chinese government and the CCP do not apply to the spread of the virus in the countries in which we do live. Spread will be faster, more people will need intensive medical intervention than can be provided, and supply shortages will cause secondary injuries and perhaps even deaths that otherwise wouldn’t have happened. I think the folks here are prudent, not panicky and rightly so. Think of it this way. Even a Chihuahua can ruin your day if he catches you with your pants down. |
Posted By: Newbie1A
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 7:09pm
  That is a very graphic image that suits all this and that made me LOL... Agree 100% with everything above. I hate being told we're 'panicking' because we are looking at various scenarios and trying to be prepared for 'what might be'. The ones who will panic are those who have no plans, no preps, and are so 'normalacy biased' that they get broadsided when this hits - and can't get their latte' let alone at the perfect temp!!! ------------- If it's to be - it's up to me! |
Posted By: nc_girl
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 7:17pm
Omg! I always thought you were a man Tech! Don't know why but whoa! Praying you and your family will be safe
|
Posted By: Newbie1A
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 7:24pm
I had the same reaction! LOL, so glad I'm not the only one nc_girl! ------------- If it's to be - it's up to me! |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 8:18pm
|
*ahem* pandemics happen all the time, but they are often under-reported or not even reported. Drug-resistant gonorrhea is a pandemic, and a plague to sub-populations such as MSM (men who have sex with men). Many times, these things burn out on their own. Other times, they take a lot of effort on the part of public health infrastructure. SARS was an example of that. I'm not saying that folks won't get hurt or die with this one. We can blame the idiot Chinese and their appetite for eating bushmeat, just as the African appetite for bushmeat led to AIDS, which has killed millions. Millions. That is still an explosive pandemic, but little discussed these days. Calm down, you'll most likely live. There are worse threats that I have to worry about. HIV/AIDS PANDEMIC (AT ITS PEAK, 2005-2012)Death Toll: 36 million ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 8:21pm
| Chuck will they shut down schools? Or do we go on like ok I am 70 and I may die but I will continue to work attitude. |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 8:23pm
|
Oh and when the AIDS-HIV came along I did not have sex...I did not want that either. I got married instead to a wonderful man who also did not want HIV! OH, and after he passed I AGAIN do not have sex...LOL and yes I am fine and very happy!!! |
Posted By: socalmom
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 8:59pm
I hope you're right, but I find little comfort in this. If I don't sleep around I can avoid Gonnorhea and HIV. This new coronavirus doesn't sound as easily avoidable. People seem to be catching from people that dont even have symptoms, and it doesn't seem to be hard to catch either. |
Posted By: KiminNM
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 9:57pm
| CRS: now I want to know what the worse things you have to worry about are!! Lol |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 22 2020 at 11:52pm
No, I don't predict schools being shut down. I've written H5N1 response plans in the past, and we realized that schools gave shelter to students in the inner city as well as their only source of nutrition. This will evolve into a community infection, and public health will grow accustomed to fighting it. We did this with West Nile Virus, which came out of nowhere and has similar characteristics (elderly at risk). SARS-CoV2 will probably be a regular problem going forward, this was entirely unavoidable. However, we have so many more serious infectious diseases that folks do not take seriously: a) seasonal influenza is deadlier than COVID-19 by far, have you had your immunization? b) measles will kill more cases than COVID-19 thanks to anti-vaxxers. c) HIV is still around, and no, it is not only sex that is a transmission route. Sorry to disappoint. I'm off of AFT now, I'll check in when I return. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 12:04am
Yes I always get a quad flu shot...rather have 4 variants than 3 high dose Get my dpt when recommended got measles vaccine and had the hard measles and almost died HIV no blood trans fusions and no sex how else can I get it please tell it is not off toilet seats...lol I take all diseases seriously that is why I have the full body suits with hoods, boots like they have for Ebola , disposable aprons goggles masks gloves. I lost one child I will do my best not to lose the only child I have left. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 12:32am
|
We're obviously not in a full blown pandemic, but just the beginning stages of it, in my personal view. A lot of experts are on the fence with it. We could be a good 2-3 weeks away from the WHO taking that step, but that's just a guess and assuming the community spread keeps increasing in various parts of the world. As John mentioned, would be nice if burns itself out in the spring / summer months when warmer temps roll in, but we're also heading into winter soon in the Southern Hemisphere. Also no longer convinced it will burn out in the spring with warmer temps. Having said that, since getting the flu / cold during the summer in the U.S. is a little rare, it should make it easy to spot infections during the summer i.e. if you get a "summer cold", it would most likely be the Coronavirus. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:22am
|
Newbie, NC girl, thank you. Prayers appreciated! I'm very female and just 4"10' (but my feet keep growing - 4 sizes in as many years! - I'm Sideshow Bob's sister I think!). WillowbyBrat is my hubby and Technobrat my daughter. My Dad used to say I had a man's mind. Maybe he was right. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:32am
Why do your feet keep growing? I've never heard of that. How bizarre. I'm only 5'1'' but I pack a mean punch. Feet still the same size as always but I'll keep an eye on them. lol. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:37am
|
I don't know. I've never heard of it either. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:38am
|
Can't punch worth a light. Good judo. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:41am
|
Weirdly I grew half an inch in height last year. I'm now officially 5'1'' and a half. I'm aiming for 5'3''. It just might take a while to get there. lol. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 2:17am
Bad back and large chest - I'm shrinking! - appart from my feet.  ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:34am
|
Not shrinking a redistribution of mass.
...........lol ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź–– Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:47am
|
------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: LittleJake
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:56am
|
Back in 2005 I worked for DHS. One of the things I did was work on the H5N1 project for my area. The spread out of China is following the exact course we thought the H5N1 virus would spread from China. I would guess, based on what we are seeing, we have about 60 days for final preps. Things are getting in very short supply, like masks, gloves and other medical supplies. I will be biting the bullet and ordering a full set of meds for myself and wife from Canada and pay full price. This will give me a small cushion in case it all goes bad. Have the family ready, made a final order from Bulk Foods, prepared for a six month SIP for 10. Hope I do not have to use it. Side note: I spent 4 months on a vent. Not fun. Could not walk for almost 5 weeks after I got off of it. Still can not take anything around my neck, like a pull over or sweater. I never, ever, want to go on a vent again. ------------- Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 5:08am
|
Sympathies, LittleJake. That truly sounds awful. Thank you for the heads-up. There is enough ridicule out there to make us preppers doubt ourselves occasionally. Your information was sorely needed. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: LittleJake
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 6:29am
|
Technophobe: Never doubt that what you are doing is right. One of the discussion we had was how long we expected people to SIP with out Government help. The initial length was a minimum of 6 months. This was reduced to 3 weeks by the DHS HQ then 3 days by HHS (too hard on the poor to stock pile more than that) The CDC almost walked out in discus, they supported our initial recommendations, saying the longer people could hold out in a SIP situation the better the people would have a chance to survive. If we were able to keep the lights on and the water flowing, it was felt that the American people would not panic. Lots more on that but I do not know how much is still classified so I will leave it at that. Just know that the longer you can hold out, the greater your chances of survival and with the way it looks at this point in time, they will be able to keep the lights on and the water flowing. ------------- Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused. |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 6:42am
|
------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: KiminNM
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 6:50am
|
As Technophobe said, THANK YOU Little Jake! question about the Canadian pharmacy, you still need a prescription to order from there, correct? So ordering from there because insurance won't fill more than 3 months at a time I'm assuming...? |
Posted By: BeachMama
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 7:06am
...as a person whose niece and nephew were adopted from — and still partially culturally identify with — China, I find your extremely racist “idiot Chinese” comment to be ignorant, overly generalized, and very offensive. Whatever academic influence you had with me is now gone. It takes one comment, CRS. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:04am
|
Hi BeachMama, I don't believe CRS meant any harm with the statement, and was just being candid. I also don't believe it was an insult to all Chinese, but just more about some of the culture and what they eat, and how these viruses emerge from that. Chuck always seems to care about folks, and if he considers something a great risk for diseases to spawn, then he is outspoken about it. Many viruses emerge from China. Anyway, Chuck is a good guy and he didn't mean any harm in it. It's almost similar to talking about a friend, and you say, God they can be an idiot at times, lol. It's a toss-up between this virus being a lab accident, or from what they ate, and possibly a combination of both. And As the saying goes, "those who don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it", such as with things like this one. Take care, A ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:17am
| I concur with Albert, I lived in China for years. People shouldn't eat bats. Those who do are unwise. It's not all people, it's not all, or even many, Chinese. Most (nearly all) Chinese are disgusted by such things, too (like dog-eating). Most Chinese, like other people everywhere, are good and kind. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:21am
|
On another note, I suppose we're lucky that most deaths are with the elderly at this stage, although I believe many of those in serious / critical condition may not be elderly. What's happening in Iran is still big concern. They seem to be dealing with a possible mutation. Since all of this is brand new and never seen before, still wonder if it could be really easy for this coronavirus to mix with another one, such as MERS. We know flu viruses mix, but could two super-corona bugs mix 100x easier and on instant contact? There are no studies on this as there have only been a few coronaviruses in history to ever make the leap from animals to humans, and we have never had two at once (that mutated from animals to humans) to be around at the same time. This is a very unique situation and many unknowns. If MERS & SARS are two cousins, it could be very easy for them instantly recombine on contact. The WHO needs to make gene sequencing in Iran a top priority, assuming Iran lets them in. I realize this is just speculation, but the CFR in Iran sticks out like a sore thumb at the moment, and with the slate-wiping CFR there, lol. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: Sheep Lady
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:30am
|
Thank you FluMom. ------------- Sheep Lady |
Posted By: Gdeb
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:41am
| Chuck is one of the most if not the most knowledgeable on here, when it comes to pandemic disease information. In my opinion, now is not the time to be offended by anything he or anyone else says. There are way bigger problems coming our way that need attention. |
Posted By: LittleJake
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:44am
|
Yes they do require a scrip. However; since none of the drugs I need are controlled, I will talk with my Doctors and be honest with them as to why I want a scrip off line. All of my Doctors know me very well, we are always trying to find ways around drugs if we can (liver and Kidney issues) I feel that they would be willing on a one time emergency basis. ------------- Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused. |
Posted By: LittleJake
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 8:54am
|
Albert: Good call on your part. I was wondering when someone would start using the "P" word. I would not expect the WHO to declare a Pandemic anytime soon. When the WHO declares an official one, a whole lot of world wide laws by many nations go into effect. This includes the closing of borders, holding of medical supplies in manufactured country for home use, stopping the shipment of food to other countries if deemed "critical" to the growing nation. Lots of things which really make them very careful on declaring a "Pandemic". ------------- Do not ever panic, stay calm and focused. |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:26am
| Albert, I think the high CFR in Iran may just be the fact that they haven't tested more. The most serious cases appeared first, because their epidemiological surveillance is bad. |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:29am
|
The WHO will I believe call a Pandemic when it hits the U.S. and people are dying here. Why because of the stock market...Lord forbid the U.S. stock market drops. I believe the WHO should say this Covid19 most likely will be a Pandemic we suggest that you put in food and water in for your family for 2-4 weeks at home to help stop the spread of this virus. Get real WHO people need time to purchase extra food/water most live paycheck to paycheck but people can at least stock up on food they would normally use so they can keep their families safe. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:30am
Hi LittleJake, thanks, and I agree. There are many repercussions that take place when the WHO makes the jump to declaring a pandemic. It will have a great economic impact on counties, as well as the fear factor. It could be a few weeks before they do it, assuming things continue at this rate. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: BabyCat
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:30am
| LittleJake, thanks for your post. Very insightful. I had a similar impression of the US. Around 45-60 days, but new hot spots likely sooner. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:33am
Good point, and that may be true. It's all speculation at this point, and I hate going that route. This bug is constantly mutating. The incubation can change, how long it sticks on surfaces can change, how infectious it is and becomes changes, and how virulent it is, can also change. These things should be expected, and this thing is a mutating machine. This is why they are constantly gene sequencing to look for mutations. They also can't do a vaccine without the sequencing. My only point is, given the constant mutations, and with the higher CFR, to me it would be reckless not to investigate if something has changed once again with the virus. A mutation with more virulence can't be ruled out without contrary research / evidence. That's the WHO's job, I believe. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: ME163
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:53am
| The WHO , Doctor Who and who what where and when are more trustworthy than the World Handout Organization. it is a mess, so we need to be more vigilant than the clowns who are in charge. |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 1:23pm
 ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 2:01pm
|
after reading an item from Health people here in Australia ,
The underlying theme was, "it given us time to Prepare" That's why all the P2/n95 masked disappeared over night here, Over Australia Day long weekend!!!!!!!!!....just doesn't happen...... Time before the panic sets in!!!!!!!! ------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź–– Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: carbon20
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 2:51pm
|
------------- Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.đź–– Marcus Aurelius |
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:02pm
|
Italy store shelves are fully wiped out This is why prepping early is a smart move. ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:40pm
Thank you! I seem to be the voice of calm reason, even within parts of the US government (I'm not an employee, but they seek my opinion as a Subject Matter Expert). Here's my concerns: a) Many people will likely die, but folks won't drop in their tracks as reported for the 1918 Spanish Flu (much of that was media exaggeration, the primary cause of death from the Spanish Flu was secondary bacterial pneumonia). We in the USA (at least) can control our own fates by practicing social distancing, personal hygiene (hand washing), getting vaccinated for flu (you are at far greater risk of flu complications than COVID-19), and avoiding panic. b) This is not a leaked bioweapon, but conceivably could be a leak from a Chinese research lab....I'm a signatory to the Cambridge Group document, and we advocate for stricter controls on BSL4 labs and viral gain of function research. I personally think that, like SARS, this is a zoonotic disease released from a Chinese "wet market" that mixed bats, civet cats, dogs, wolves, donkeys, snakes, pangolin etc. Who knows how many hosts this virus went through? c) Don't overreact. Hoarding masks reduces the supply available to first responders & hospital workers, who genuinely need these. I personally am convinced that the primary mode of dissemination is fecal/oral, which would explain why the quarantine on the cruise ship Diamond Princess failed so completely. d) There are worse scenarios. As nuclear-armed states like Pakistan, Iran (you didn't hear that from me), Israel, North Korea etc. become consumed with this pest, it could lead to regional or even global instability. North Korea has stockpiles of smallpox, with a 50% case fatality rate, and may release this if the leadership feels they are losing control. Please calm down. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: FluMom
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 3:51pm
|
LOL, we are calm we are prepped to the nines but we I believe are worried about others panic when the people cannot get into the hospital and they are very ill or people start dying. When grandma dies because her grand daughter comes home from school and gives it to grandma... you are going to see really pissed off people. Panic will be ramped because no one is telling them the only way to curb this is to SIP. I know you say it is just a cold but grandma does not die from a cold and usually would be able to get into the hospital. Why do you think Italy has closed down ten cities, We are not panicked but we are panicked about when people here realize this is not just a cold. iMHO |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:33pm
Hi Chuck, How long does the smallpox vaccine last? I had one as a baby, I still have the vaccination card to prove it. Would it still offer some protection? Would i have passed on some protection to my children? Thanks. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:47pm
|
Here we go.... Its gonna get real crazy. Normies don't know yet. They will wig out. The stock market will implode. I'm predicting a Friday announcement. |
Posted By: cobber
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:50pm
|
Buy silver Pull you money out of the bank. Be ahead of the curve. Act now!!! There's the best advice you will ever receive.
|
Posted By: Albert
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 4:51pm
|
lol ------------- https://www.facebook.com/Avianflutalk |
Posted By: Little House
Date Posted: February 23 2020 at 5:00pm
Chuck, Sorry to be dense, but could you explain how fecal/oral dissemination explains why the quarantine failed? I am guessing that since you say the quarantine failed you assume that people were infected during the quarantine, but I don’t understand how that could happen through fecal/oral if everyone was locked in their rooms. Am I missing something? |