OK so this virus started in China they have about 3200 deaths and the U.S. is looking at a possible 1 million to 2 million dead.  How does that work?

The Chinese are clearly lying about how many died 

Yes, I understand they lied so the only real numbers we can count on is Italy.  We need to use there numbers to extrapolate what is going on here...not that I am smart enough to do any of that but let's face it we need to know using only Italy!

I'm sorry Flumom, this is all i have for you, And I'm too tired to be eloquent right now:

So I'll be concise, The Italian numbers are real and startling. We should be way below them, but even if we are 1/3 of the Italian numbers we are above 1918 both in CFR, and Ro ...........nuff said.....extrapolate what you must, but this is a big deal.......

The show stopper is, and only is, if we can bend the curve with social distancing at this point...considering the lack of preparation.

Sadly the only other hope is if somehow, in someway the CFR, and Ro are different in America for some unknown reason........that's a long shot. 

Im hoping someone can show how the synopsis above is flawed.

FluMom wrote: OK so this virus started in China they have about 3200 deaths and the U.S. is looking at a possible 1 million to 2 million dead.  How does that work?

The Chinese did some things to stomp out the virus that we, as a liberal society, tend not to do.  They made it illegal to show your face on the street, and you could have been shot on sight for doing that. 

That simple.  Here, we have idiot kids dancing around on the beaches, getting drunk & laid, laughing about Corona Virus and getting infected.  

The 2 million is a prediction based on the model, if you want to read it, it is at this link:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

On Page 7 of 20, it says:  The key is "unmitigated."

Many countries have differing percentages of people dying. Sometimes the numbers are cooked, like in China, Iran, and ,yes, the US.

Italy may have a different strain. 

I've just read on Facebook that China has noted a loss of 8.1 million mobile phone accounts in the last 2 months. Did those people die I wonder?

KiwiMum wrote: I've just read on Facebook that China has noted a loss of 8.1 million mobile phone accounts in the last 2 months. Did those people die I wonder?

KiwiMum - I think you missed a calling in life, you'd make a great detective!  I would think this is probably about as close to a real count that we might ever see...  

See that would make more sense 8.1 million in China dead...5 million is even a reasonable number!  Then I could believe 1 - 2 million here!

KiwiMum wrote: I've just read on Facebook that China has noted a loss of 8.1 million mobile phone accounts in the last 2 months. Did those people die I wonder?

I imagine with lockdown, people weren't getting paid and shutting down unnecessary accounts.. like for kids  

Perhaps a bit of both.

Exactly Miss.... 

So the number is somewhere between 3 261 and 8 100 000.   That is a huge spread, and not much in helping determine how things might go in our neck of the world.   Any way to get a better handle on China's data?   Although at this stage getting Chinese data is a bit late -  looking to neighbouring countries (Sweden, Norway etc) for some guide, but not looking East*

* Russia needs to hold its figures down to let Putin win a referendum to allow him to stay in power for the rest of his life. Putin is playing the virus risk down shaking hands with everyone (except anyone getting close to him has to be tested for Corvid-19 before they are allowed anywhere near).  Putin seems to know the seriousness of it, but is putting his country at great risk so he can hold on to power.  

CRS, DrPH wrote: FluMom wrote: OK so this virus started in China they have about 3200 deaths and the U.S. is looking at a possible 1 million to 2 million dead.  How does that work? The Chinese did some things to stomp out the virus that we, as a liberal society, tend not to do.  They made it illegal to show your face on the street, and you could have been shot on sight for doing that.  That simple.  Here, we have idiot kids dancing around on the beaches, getting drunk & laid, laughing about Corona Virus and getting infected.   The 2 million is a prediction based on the model, if you want to read it, it is at this link: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf On Page 7 of 20, it says:  The key is "unmitigated." In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.  The key is "unmitigated." With ongoing isolation orders in CA, IL, NY, CT etc., we are pursuing mitigation steps, so the 2 M dead is not quite as likely.   HOWEVER, this pandemic will NOT be completely broken without a vaccine or effective anti-viral, and these are months away.  Every human being is vulnerable to this thing (unless you are a recovered case, in which case you have immunity), so we are all at risk for quite a while.

You forgot the part where they lie about it, cover it up for months, and have the person ringing the alarm bell executed for possibly saying something that might hurt the China narrative. 

Literally none of what happened could have had:

1. China not been China doing stupid crap.

2. China not been literally creating superbugs for weapons

3. China not eating animals that they have no business whatsoever eating

4. China not slamming the iron curtain every time something embarrassing happens to them 

5. China not lying with every word and trying to force *OUR* media to lie with them.

If anyone thinks that China only had as few deaths as they're reporting, they're delusional. Anything China said I would multiply by ten or one hundred. 

Here in the U.S. if someone shot my kid for going out, God wouldn't be able to save them from my wrath. That alone is grounds for a genuine shooting civil war were our government to pull that. The Chinese are able to get away with it because they're viewed by their government as little more than drones. 

Imagine what would happen on U.S. soil after a Tienamen Square massacre like when the Chinese government took tanks and drove them over protesting civilians. No politician or public official of any level down to dogcatcher would be safe. 

Both!  And both equally wrong!

Tienamen Square?  Don't you mean Kent State?