OK some perspective here 

Worldwide cases - 766,336 

Worldwide deaths - 36,873 

In the USA deaths from tobacco 480,000 per year - 1,200 per day 

deaths from Junk food 300,000 per year - 800 per day 

death from bad doctors 250,000 per year - 685 a day

You are 100% correct Kilt!

But it's still scary....its the unknowns, and unseen that.....kind of like waiting for the monster to pop out from behind the door in a horror movie....of not knowing if or when. 

I agree, Kilt. But none of that is going to fill the shelves, get rid of the lines outside stores, make social distancing unnecessary, lift the lockdowns on half the world, or empty the overwhelmed hospitals. It might not be H5N1, but it’s still quite possibly the most traumatic thing most of us has ever experienced.

It was never the virus - it was always about how we’d react to it.

Kilt5 wrote: OK some perspective here  Worldwide cases - 766,336  Worldwide deaths - 36,873  In the USA deaths from tobacco 480,000 per year - 1,200 per day  deaths from Junk food 300,000 per year - 800 per day  death from bad doctors 250,000 per year - 685 a day

What's your point ?

Pandemic wrote: Kilt5 wrote: OK some perspective here  Worldwide cases - 766,336  Worldwide deaths - 36,873  In the USA deaths from tobacco 480,000 per year - 1,200 per day  deaths from Junk food 300,000 per year - 800 per day  death from bad doctors 250,000 per year - 685 a day What's your point ?

My Twinkies kill more people everyday than the virus does........and no, you cannot have one  

pheasant wrote: Pandemic wrote: Kilt5 wrote: OK some perspective here  Worldwide cases - 766,336  Worldwide deaths - 36,873  In the USA deaths from tobacco 480,000 per year - 1,200 per day  deaths from Junk food 300,000 per year - 800 per day  death from bad doctors 250,000 per year - 685 a day What's your point ? My Twinkies kill more people everyday than the virus does........and no, you cannot have one

Whats ' twinkie' I'm from Europe ?

One trouble, Kilt, is we don't have a year's worth of this coronavirus to compare with other causes of death that we have year's worth of information.     Also the cases are still ramping up (and deaths will follow cases with a lag) so it is not necessarily fair to compare the early days of this with other well established causes of death.

But, in a way you are right, in that until now the death rates from the virus are relatively small.  For example in the USA the rate is about 3 000, yet even Mr Trump is saying it will go much higher [at least  100 000, which is over 33 times the current rate]   

Have patience and the perspective will change with time.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twinkie - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twinkie

Think Cadbury's mini-roll without the chocolate.

Another perspective; US-180.000 cases EU over 400.000 cases....

my point is over a million people die in the USA every year from tobacco junk food and bad doctors

nothing gets done about it - those deaths are OK

Kilt5 wrote: my point is over a million people die in the USA every year from tobacco junk food and bad doctors nothing gets done about it - those deaths are OK

All of that is YOUR choice except for bad doctors so can YOU control what other people do.  What make Tobacco Illegal, Junk Food Illegal?  Did not work for Liquor and Illegal Drugs (can get them on street corners if you want).  Bad Doctor...Law Suit only way to cure that.

So I am not sure what point you are making here?

If I eat myself to death on twinkies, drink a thousand dirty martinis, or puff like a chimney until I die of emphysema or cancer, that is my choice and I am going to die alone from it.  If I party with the wu, I might just start a domino-like cascade and kill a few dozen; those are not my lives to risk.

Like FluMom, I'm not sure what your point was, Kilt.  But that was mine.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/ - https://covid19.healthdata.org/  

Here is a handy chart.

Yes but those deaths are going to happen regardless.  This is 100,000 - 200,000 in 4 months or a rate of 400,000 to 800,000 per year in addition to all the rest of the illness this will cause. You don't smoke a cigarette, feel like shit for 5 days and then die on day 10.  Or each a cake and die the following week. Or drink a coke and overwhelm the hospitals.  Your point is irrelevant and out of context.  It is more like you gave out 100 guns and half those people shoot themselves, 15 of those people end up in the hospital and 2 die.  For every 100 people that go to buy guns and have that injury rate, multiplied by everyone dumb enough to buy a gun, and you get millions dead and injured.  That is a better analogy.  Stay inside and be one of the families that survives uninjured.       

Osterholm was just interviewed on CNN, and he said 1.6 million deaths could be possible in the US.

https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-treatment-france-officially-sanctions-drug-after-975-patients-recovered-2949364 - https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-treatment-france-officially-sanctions-drug-after-975-patients-recovered-2949364  

Taxman100 wrote:  This is 100,000 - 200,000 in 4 months or a rate of 400,000 to 800,000 per year

Do you have a link showing that Fauci said in "four months"? I've been looking, and cant find it, and I'd love to find it.

jacksdad wrote: Osterholm was just interviewed on CNN, and he said 1.6 million deaths could be possible in the US.

Can't find it, do you have a link?

Technophobe wrote: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twinkie - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twinkie Think Cadbury's mini-roll without the chocolate.

Sounds yummy. I must get the English equivalent, though my exercise has taken a crash lately😼😼

http://timeline.centennial.rice.edu/entry/287/index.html - http://timeline.centennial.rice.edu/entry/287/index.html

Twinkies are the ultimate survival food.

https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-verizon&sxsrf=ALeKk012kOWxC6VBIKz4akkPlbaDsIh7-g%3A1585741494829&ei=tn6EXv2VMuOGytMPpqWLwA0&q=eating+20+year+old+twinkie&oq=eating+20+year+old+twinkie&gs_lcp=ChNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwEAM6BwgjEOoCECc6BAgjECc6BQgAEJECOgUIABCDAToHCAAQChCRAjoECAAQQzoCCAA6AgguOgUILhCDAToGCAAQFhAeOgUIIRCgAToICCEQFhAdEB5QhasBWMKqAmCLsgJoAXAAeAGAAccBiAHQI5IBBTExLjI4mAEAoAEBsAEI&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp# - https://www.google.com/search?client=ms-android-verizon&sxsrf=ALeKk012kOWxC6VBIKz4akkPlbaDsIh7-g%3A1585741494829&ei=tn6EXv2VMuOGytMPpqWLwA0&q=eating+20+year+old+twinkie&oq=eating+20+year+old+twinkie&gs_lcp=ChNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwEAM6BwgjEOoCECc6BAgjECc6BQgAEJECOgUIABCDAToHCAAQChCRAjoECAAQQzoCCAA6AgguOgUILhCDAToGCAAQFhAeOgUIIRCgAToICCEQFhAdEB5QhasBWMKqAmCLsgJoAXAAeAGAAccBiAHQI5IBBTExLjI4mAEAoAEBsAEI&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp#

https://www.google.com/amp/s/boston.cbslocal.com/2019/11/08/43-year-old-twinkie-maine-school/amp/ - https://www.google.com/amp/s/boston.cbslocal.com/2019/11/08/43-year-old-twinkie-maine-school/amp/

I really hope people aren't listening to Kilt and Med, lol.  

Obviously there are others who feel the same way, e.g. the latest cruise ship that can't doc.  They too thought it was nothing, now there are 4 dead bodies on the ship with another 200 who are sick.   We need to be cautious on this forum when spreading news that there is nothing to worry about, when the fact is, this is a cat-5 pandemic.  God I hope people here are not part of the problem in this with spreading disinformation that the flu is worse, as people are not taking the stay-at-home orders seriously and they are booking cruises.   

If you think this is all a hoax and nothing to worry about, not sure why you're even here on the forum.   Maybe it's time for some folks to find another group instead of spreading disinformation here with the old "flu is worse" campaign, and this is a hoax, and more people die by drinking diet coke or whatever.   This is a pandemic awareness group, and we are in a cat-5 pandemic, so if you feel differently about it, maybe it's time to find another group for the time being.  

I'm not going to use this forum to have people lower their guards and put others in harms way.  

lol

According to what I have been hearing (people are saying) the peak for the east and west coast is going to be mid to late April.  The death rate will be highest at max stress on the medical services.  Gates is saying 10 weeks total shutdown and then mass testing to identify infection hot spots would be logical path forward. So taking these statements I'm equating to the next for months being the majority of the mortality statistics.  But you are right I'm weaving my own conclusions based on what I have heard.  100K to 240K if everything goes right is a pretty large min and max, hopefully they are overstated.     

Taxman100 wrote: According to what I have been hearing (people are saying) the peak for the east and west coast is going to be mid to late April.  The death rate will be highest at max stress on the medical services.  Gates is saying 10 weeks total shutdown and then mass testing to identify infection hot spots would be logical path forward. So taking these statements I'm equating to the next for months being the majority of the mortality statistics.  But you are right I'm weaving my own conclusions based on what I have heard.  100K to 240K if everything goes right is a pretty large min and max, hopefully they are overstated.

This is the problem with all of these "peak" projections: 

a) The entire world population is vulnerable to this thing, with the exception of folks who have had the COVID-19 infection and survived....they will have immunity for an indeterminate period of time. 

b) We have NO realistic idea of what the prevalence rate is, anywhere!  Even with the best testing, there hasn't been enough to test every soul on earth, and we know that many cases are asymptomatic "super-spreaders," unidentified and circulating in society worldwide. 

c)  People continue to play around and go shopping, having parties etc. as if there is no concern.  That is certainly the case in the US, not sure about UK, EU, Asia etc.  

d)  My original calculation back in January 2020 was that 2 million deaths could occur in the USA without any mitigation, a figure since confirmed by the Brits (2.2 M).  Our "mitigation" strategy is full of holes....major states such as Florida have no stay-in-place rules, or their rules were instituted too late. 

e)  It takes several weeks from exposure to fulminant disease, so this sucker is just starting to wind up. 

Therefore, I don't even look at articles that predict "peaks" - human behavior makes these obsolete as soon as they are published.  I'm sure you are all seeing stories about ongoing college campus parties, beach excursions etc.  These are holes in the mitigation that will allow the case fatality rate to soar past 200,000 in the US alone.  

Stay the f*ck at home, and be safe.

pheasant wrote:

♥♥♥♥♥♥🐱🐱🐱🐱

The thing is we are not all going to peak at once. I'm in Oklahoma and we are just getting started. In our local area everything is shut down already, except essential businesses and drive through pick up food. I have been off work since March 18th (paid thank goodness). As of tomorrow they will start with a curfew, everyone has to be at home from 10pm-5am except essential workers, who have to have a letter from work stating they are essential. Also starting tomorrow, one family member only can do the shopping and one shopping cart in all stores, people were bringing kids and their while family in to do their grocery shopping, the mayor is stopping that. They are also limiting the number of people allowed in stores at a time, something about 500 feet per person. I didn't pay much attention to that part because I haven't been to a grocery store in over a month and don't plan on going any time soon.

Though I'm holed up in my ' bunker ' in rural Hampshire, England, I can honestly say that fear has gripped us here and in Europe. I mean it was like okay one day, then a tsunami of illness hit. Hospitals were swamped with serious cases in a relatively short time and thats just the known cases. We believe people are dying in their homes !!..

We lost nearly 600 today in England including two healthy teenagers.

This disease can be brutal and theres no dignity in death. You die alone of corona.

Please dont underestimate the potential dangers of this disease. You owe it yourself and loved ones to keep safe.

Albert wrote: I really hope people aren't listening to Kilt and Med, lol.   Obviously there are others who feel the same way, e.g. the latest cruise ship that can't doc.  They too thought it was nothing, now there are 4 dead bodies on the ship with another 200 who are sick.   We need to be cautious on this forum when spreading news that there is nothing to worry about, when the fact is, this is a cat-5 pandemic.  God I hope people here are not part of the problem in this with spreading disinformation that the flu is worse, as people are not taking the stay-at-home orders seriously and they are booking cruises.    If you think this is all a hoax and nothing to worry about, not sure why you're even here on the forum.   Maybe it's time for some folks to find another group instead of spreading disinformation here with the old "flu is worse" campaign, and this is a hoax, and more people die by drinking diet coke or whatever.   This is a pandemic awareness group, and we are in a cat-5 pandemic, so if you feel differently about it, maybe it's time to find another group for the time being.   I'm not going to use this forum to have people lower their guards and put others in harms way.

Bloody well said Albert. There is a lot of disinformation going on here. There is also a lot of distraction and focusing on the unproven or irrelevant. I see now that paranoia is spreading among certain members that China is about to attack America. This is verging on the ridiculous. We only have to look at what's happening on cruise ships to know ships are floating petri dishes. America's largest airplane carrier has an outbreak on it that's spreading like wildfire through the crew. China may be many things, but stupid isn't one of them. They are hardly likely to mount an invasion with Covid 19 still doing the rounds. 

The problem we have on this site is that for many people, this outbreak is the first time they've really thought about a pandemic and it's scary. For people who've been on here for years, we've already mulled over the problems and consequences of a pandemic and we've discussed them at length. And we've prepped. For people who've just woken up to the potential horrors of it all, they've had to rush through the stages of awareness and that's not easy to do. On here right now we have people still in the denial stage, people who are ridiculing the projections, people who are downright angry about it and people who are fatalistic about it. And all those reactions are perfectly normal, but right now they are not helpful. 

Ok, so there is a lot of disinformation and lying online.  The issue is the lack of real true information.  I think those who are spreading lies will get their justice.  We are on the verge of the worst 2 months in recent American medical history.  We will have an average of 700- 900 deaths a day for a whole month.  This will shock our society and it may on some days accelerate to 1000 deaths a day in many areas.  I think it will be worse than anyone ever imagine.  240,000 will be the low end.  Many states have not put in place stay at home orders.  The northern Plains and the deep south have not done stay at home orders yet.  Rural areas will be hit particularly hard.  The intermountain west will also be hit as hard as New York and New Orleans.  There will be so many hot spots that the system will collapse in many areas.  This will not end until the vaccine is available.  The JAMA podcast was particularly distressing as the author of a study on data out of china has led me to think that the second wave will be worse than this one.  As we enter into the fall, the pandemic will mutate and unfortunately will kill more people.   If my hunch is correct, this pandemic will have features of the  1918 and 1957 flu pandemics.   it will be far worse than the 1957 Asian flu.  240 thousand deaths will be a low end estimate.   We may have as many as 500,000 deaths because states ate unwilling to rigorously enforce stay at home orders.   The states that refuse to have stay at home orders are making our worst estimates seem like child's play.   

Albert, I am grateful for what you said — and cannot agree more. 

Started prepping before I was married, how surreal it is to be having frank talks with my teenage boys over this. 

Trying to sip, protect, and save my family's lives.

That there boys and girls.......IS perspective.

Btw Kiwimum....well said!

ME163 wrote: Ok, so there is a lot of disinformation and lying online.  The issue is the lack of real true information.  I think those who are spreading lies will get their justice.  We are on the verge of the worst 2 months in recent American medical history.  We will have an average of 700- 900 deaths a day for a whole month.  This will shock our society and it may on some days accelerate to 1000 deaths a day in many areas.  I think it will be worse than anyone ever imagine.  240,000 will be the low end.  Many states have not put in place stay at home orders.  The northern Plains and the deep south have not done stay at home orders yet.  Rural areas will be hit particularly hard.  The intermountain west will also be hit as hard as New York and New Orleans.  There will be so many hot spots that the system will collapse in many areas.  This will not end until the vaccine is available.  The JAMA podcast was particularly distressing as the author of a study on data out of china has led me to think that the second wave will be worse than this one.  As we enter into the fall, the pandemic will mutate and unfortunately will kill more people.   If my hunch is correct, this pandemic will have features of the  1918 and 1957 flu pandemics.   it will be far worse than the 1957 Asian flu.  240 thousand deaths will be a low end estimate.   We may have as many as 500,000 deaths because states ate unwilling to rigorously enforce stay at home orders.   The states that refuse to have stay at home orders are making our worst estimates seem like child's play.

Have you seen the reports today of organised looting in Italy? Of social media groups organising raids on supermarkets? That's my real concern for all this. The disease itself and the ensuing deaths are one thing, and so a large extent, they are now unavoidable. That genie is well and truly out of the bottle. It's the social unrest that will lead to societal breakdown that is really worrying me. And frankly, if it's happening in Italy of all place, which is a laid back, easy going country where there are no guns, well, it can happen anywhere. There is only so much people can take before they snap and it seems that 4 weeks of isolation is all it took in Italy. 

We have to remember that people are not just suffering from the fear of the virus, most people are looking at short term and/or long term financial ruin. Many have lost their jobs, or their income, their pensions or their investments. Many have rent and mortgages that they will be unable to pay and utility bills that they won't be able to meet. As for putting food on the table, the most basic of human needs, it won't take much for people to snap and do something reckless. Right now, there is no such thing as job security for anyone. It's a completely unprecedented situation we find ourselves in.

I think the real reason behind out government paying everyones wages for 3/6months is to quell Civil unrest

Before it starts, if you got money coming in and food on table, 

Less likely to go out mugging and  stealing....

CRS, DrPH wrote: Taxman100 wrote: According to what I have been hearing (people are saying) the peak for the east and west coast is going to be mid to late April.  The death rate will be highest at max stress on the medical services.  Gates is saying 10 weeks total shutdown and then mass testing to identify infection hot spots would be logical path forward. So taking these statements I'm equating to the next for months being the majority of the mortality statistics.  But you are right I'm weaving my own conclusions based on what I have heard.  100K to 240K if everything goes right is a pretty large min and max, hopefully they are overstated.      This is the problem with all of these "peak" projections:  a) The entire world population is vulnerable to this thing, with the exception of folks who have had the COVID-19 infection and survived....they will have immunity for an indeterminate period of time.  b) We have NO realistic idea of what the prevalence rate is, anywhere!  Even with the best testing, there hasn't been enough to test every soul on earth, and we know that many cases are asymptomatic "super-spreaders," unidentified and circulating in society worldwide.  c)  People continue to play around and go shopping, having parties etc. as if there is no concern.  That is certainly the case in the US, not sure about UK, EU, Asia etc.   d)  My original calculation back in January 2020 was that 2 million deaths could occur in the USA without any mitigation, a figure since confirmed by the Brits (2.2 M).  Our "mitigation" strategy is full of holes....major states such as Florida have no stay-in-place rules, or their rules were instituted too late.  e)  It takes several weeks from exposure to fulminant disease, so this sucker is just starting to wind up.  Therefore, I don't even look at articles that predict "peaks" - human behavior makes these obsolete as soon as they are published.  I'm sure you are all seeing stories about ongoing college campus parties, beach excursions etc.  These are holes in the mitigation that will allow the case fatality rate to soar past 200,000 in the US alone.   Stay the f*ck at home, and be safe.

Simple math from the article using the following numbers: U.S. Population 331,000,000. 50-80% of population infected. Lets go with the low end which would be 50%. Infection Fatality Rate is 0.66%.

165,000,000 x 0.66% is not 100-200k fatalities, it is 1,089,000.

From the article:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR1rrZXve_H3t_Zc-WtMl4P5JAhDf5XsF-nNV11as_mhHqJO4rQJKb4W6mM - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR1rrZXve_H3t_Zc-WtMl4P5JAhDf5XsF-nNV11as_mhHqJO4rQJKb4W6mM