So we trashed our economy for what?

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-reaction-overblown-132242 - https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-reaction-overblown-132242

YUP,,,, Alberta premier today stated that by the time this pandemic is over AB can expect to see 25% unemployment - roughly 4.35 million so approx. 1.1 million unemployed...

deaths expected to be 400-3100 dead (expected scenario) or in less likely/more severe scenario 500 to 6600 deaths...

as I posted in other thread - that's roughly a 0.0015% CFR

Sorry - edited to add link https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/in-televised-speech-jason-kenney-reveals-grim-potential-covid-19-scenario-of-up-to-6600-deaths-in-alberta/ar-BB12i7br?ocid=spartandhp - https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/in-televised-speech-jason-kenney-reveals-grim-potential-covid-19-scenario-of-up-to-6600-deaths-in-alberta/ar-BB12i7br?ocid=spartandhp

When I was in college in an accounting class - I picked up an error in textbooks' work sheet (had been used for years never caught) and a gf & I were laughing about it.  When the instructor (also headmaster of program) asked what was so important we could 'visit' - I pointed out error...got drug out into hallway and lectured about 'professional protocol' and told I was "too analytical" - that I could find error in anything...I laughed and said 'this is accounting - we're supposed to find & prevent errors aren't we?" and turned and walked back into classroom.  

I'm not great at math - but I 'like' numbers and head thinks in a way it see discrepancies...this over reaction of govt has been bugging me for a while - then this news story tonight...wow!  Over a million people with no income to keep a roof over head or food on the table for 400-6600 dead?!?!?! Wow...

I am beginning to think China got us good. Maybe if we had just let it burn through it would have had 100 to 200 k dead but 2 million was ridiculous

Ok, this was not overblown, we need to remember that this is the first wave.   We don't have a vaccine and treatments are limited.  Eventually the totlal will rise and the numbers will rise.  

The over-reaction to this will be felt for many years, possibly decades. See my posts on the Police State thread.

Yeah, I think the Chicoms (CCP) used this on the world. Interesting signaling from US wanting to communicate directly with Wuhan lab. Did you hear the one about how the Chinese tried to sell back Italy's donated PPE?

The CCP is a threat to not only their own people, but the world.

USA has about 3 000 000 deaths a year, which works out to just over 8 000 deaths a day.    The latest figure for deaths in one day from Corvid19 is over 1 700 -  This is not an extinction event, but neither is it a "power puff" - the balance is somewhere between the two.  

How else to measure it?  The USA has had a relatively high population growth rate when compared to other industrial countries, and its population figures were growing by about 2 700 souls a day, so at this current rate for corvid19 the country will not see a population reduction - however, the daily numbers are growing so we need to wait a bit longer to see how this will turn out.

There is also almost no chance than the confirmed deaths for covid19 will be less than the estimated deaths from flu for this year (currently at 24 000 according to the CDC)  - so I am sure this will prove to be worse than the flu, but will that be by say a factor of 2 or of 200?

Usk wrote: So we trashed our economy for what? https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-reaction-overblown-132242 - https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-reaction-overblown-132242

Expert: No. It’s warranted. This is because we don’t know how this epidemic is going to pan out. So even if the case fatality risk is very low, if a high percentage of a population becomes infected that low fatality risk could result in a large number of deaths.

...I'm an expert and I could have written this.

two remarks;

1. On a global scale Covid19 is out of control, soon BILLIONS of people (Africa, (mix with 25% of popp. HIV+)South Asia, Latin America) will have to make a choice between "dying at home or seek safety were they hope to find it" (EU, US). [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/08/coronavirus-biggest-humanitarian-disaster-since-wwii-red-cross[/url];

According to Frido Herinckx, who coordinates global relief efforts for the International Red Cross, this disaster is different than anything we've seen before. "A 'normal' disaster is confined, such as an earthquake in a specific area. Then we, for example, send mobile hospitals and help to one place. But at the moment, the whole world is facing the same crisis and it is questionable whether others can send help."

The impact on a country like the Netherlands, with its high quality healthcare system, is already enormous, Herinckx said. "It is hard to imagine what happens if the virus also gains a foothold in areas where hospitals have been destroyed and where basic things like clean water and soap are not available. Let alone intensive care beds and respiratory equipment." In the north of Mali, for example, over 90 percent of all medical facilities were destroyed in conflict. "How can we expect them to test and treat people with the coronavirus?"

2.In the US [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/coronavirus-wreaks-havoc-in-african-american-neighborhoods[/url] racial tension will explode.

We are only at the beginning of the crisis-the end is years away !!!! [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/[/url] for realistic statistics on mortality 

CRS, DrPH wrote: Expert: No. It’s warranted. This is because we don’t know how this epidemic is going to pan out. So even if the case fatality risk is very low, if a high percentage of a population becomes infected that low fatality risk could result in a large number of deaths.

Paraphrased, but I said this very thing on another thread.  If the RO is 4% higher than seasonal flu, it simply makes sense that even if the CFR is comparable to seasonal flu, we'll see more deaths.  

How is this considered overblown? South Koreas stats tell the story. Of resolved cases, the fatality rate is 3% as it stands. If allowed to overwhelm hospitals, 3% is a minimum. You can punch in the math for whatever percent of the population you think might get infected but everything point to a high r0. The fact is, without strong mitigation this would absolutely have been much worse. I don’t think 2m in the US is unrealistic at all. Imagine that state of reality and picture what the economy would look like.

Usk wrote: So we trashed our economy for what? https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-reaction-overblown-132242 - https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/coronavirus-reaction-overblown-132242

Yes it's overblown.  People need to prepare for a more serious crisis.  The WHO makes statements about taking

family members out of the home for quarantine.  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCyqcoC747o&feature=emb_title - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCyqcoC747o&feature=emb_title  

Just like China.

I'm not participating in this destruction of liberty, the economy, and everyone's lives and future for some bullshit hypothetical mass panic seized upon by fascists. 

People are being ARRESTED for simply walking alone in a park, and you need "papers" from your employer to travel to and from work ONLY or otherwise. It's batshit insane.

So called "experts' are part of the problem, they still don't know the denominator OR how many actual deaths will eventually result from their 12-18 month draconian economic destruction 'solutions'. When they can tell me that, I'll listen.

This certainly is a pandemic. It's certainly going to lead to large number of deaths, whether sooner or later. We need to accept this, and discuss rational solutions, not panic-driven overreations. Complete lockdowns are unsustainable. I read an estimate that already this has cost over $60 Trillion worldwide. No corner on Earth has been unaffected. Countries may collapse into debt spirals, mass migration, riots, wars, are increasignly possible.

But hey, the stawk market is back up! All it took was the annihilation of our currency, full on nationalization of all businesses (Fed buying corp. bonds, other sheninigans that clearly spelled out to the world our government is beholden to Fraud Street, and a nice sly introduction to martial law and total corporate Marxism (privatized profits, and public losses).

“Of course the people don’t want war [DISEASE]. But after all, it’s the leaders of the country who determine the policy, and it’s always a simple matter to drag the people along whether it’s a democracy, a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders.  That is easy.  All you have to do is tell them  they are being attacked [BY A VIRUS], and denounce the pacifists [CRITICAL THINKERS] for lack of patriotism,[RESPECT FOR HUMAN LIFE] and exposing the country to greater danger.”

— Herman Goering at the Nuremberg trials 

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/war-games/ - https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/war-games/

Pretty soon, the panic play won't work anymore.

And because I try to be iintellectually honest as much as possible, here is a high-quality opposing viewpoint that makes a lof of very strong arguments.

However, it still cannot say with much certainty from data (other than limited examples) about the denominator in CFR. Suggests it could be 1.2 to 1.9 at the lowest. However, I have failed to see convincing evidence of the rPCR accuracy of testing, given presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Given Fauci's 50% figure, would halve that to 0.6 to 0.9. If using Italian town as an example, something the author conveniently left out, of 50-75% would cut it by 75%, giving us a 0.3% to 0.475%.  Clearly, clearly more data is needed. So why haven't we made that a priority? A good question, but when fear is being peddled, don't let logic or facts get in the way...

https://theprepared.com/blog/think-its-time-to-sacrifice-lives-to-reopen-the-economy-youre-wrong-about-covid-19s-fatality-rate/ - https://theprepared.com/blog/think-its-time-to-sacrifice-lives-to-reopen-the-economy-youre-wrong-about-covid-19s-fatality-rate/

The estimates of lower fatalities are all through July/August. . . .not the end of the pandemic, which is predicted to be 12-18 months. All the experts I've read agree that herd immunity needs to be 70-80% of the population.

Here is some back of the napkin math, so please correct my errors. Today on Worldometer U.S. deaths stand at 14,795. If we go back two weeks to the 24th of March there were 55,196 cases. Lets assume there are 10x that many cases so, 551,960. That gives an IFR of 2.6%. 75% of the U.S. population (lets say 330,000,000) is 247,500,000. 2.6% of that number is 6,435,000 by the time the pandemic is over.

Current estimates in Europe are between 1-2% of the population has been infected. Just for fun lets say 2% of the U.S. population has been infected as of today. That is 6,620,000. with 14,796  deaths (based on what I've read deaths are being undercounted, but lets go with what we are being told) that is an IFR of .24% That would indicate 595,800 deaths by the end of the pandemic.

Also read a study today out of China that found a significant number of recovered patients showed 1/3 of them had low or no antibodies a few months later, much like the coronaviruses that cause the common cold (hence no vaccine for the common cold).

Maybe hydroxychloroquine and zinc will help, maybe not. It is contraindicated for many people.

Thorne! wrote: The estimates of lower fatalities are all through July/August. . . .not the end of the pandemic, which is predicted to be 12-18 months. All the experts I've read agree that herd immunity needs to be 70-80% of the population. Here is some back of the napkin math, so please correct my errors. Today on Worldometer U.S. deaths stand at 14,795. If we go back two weeks to the 24th of March there were 55,196 cases. Lets assume there are 10x that many cases so, 551,960. That gives an IFR of 2.6%. 75% of the U.S. population (lets say 330,000,000) is 247,500,000. 2.6% of that number is 6,435,000 by the time the pandemic is over. Current estimates in Europe are between 1-2% of the population has been infected. Just for fun lets say 2% of the U.S. population has been infected as of today. That is 6,620,000. with 14,796  deaths (based on what I've read deaths are being undercounted, but lets go with what we are being told) that is an IFR of .24% That would indicate 595,800 deaths by the end of the pandemic. Also read a study today out of China that found a significant number of recovered patients showed 1/3 of them had low or no antibodies a few months later, much like the coronaviruses that cause the common cold (hence no vaccine for the common cold). Maybe hydroxychloroquine and zinc will help, maybe not. It is contraindicated for many people.

I have had a big concern about this virus being like the common cold...coming back year after year with no vaccine.  Now if it does not mutate then a vaccine will work but if it mutates we may be screwed.

Yes, it sucks. Deaths sooner or later. No vaccine, no treatment.  

And, if I haven't beaten this horse enough, a largely self-inflicted financial nuclear 10,000 kiloton MIRV attack has hit the US, and the world, and I really don't think I'm being too over-dramatic.  People are starting to stop payment on rent, their mortgages, credit cards, etc. There is no certainty that those who've kept their jobs will still have them. Other countries are likely going to fair much worse without a central bank turning on the money spigot (delayed and less than promised as it is).

Another month of this, a full-scale economic depression awaits.  Incalculable costs, unrecoverable for many for years. This will lead to many sad effects. 

What was the alternative, Babycat?  I'd really like to know what we could have done that would not have lead to the economic damage you decry?  With hospitals already overrun and no preparation, what could we have done differently?  If we would like to see the CFR for this thing go through the roof, we can just let our HCWs work with no PPE, then see what happens when otherwise survivable injuries and illnesses come along.  I hate the loss of businesses and wealth as much as anyone else.  I have taken some financial losses as well, and fully expect that what I have left will be inflated away longterm.  Stories of hunger that are emerging break my heart.  Make no mistake, the consequences of this disease will be felt by future generations.  I just don't think there was a better answer that we could consider civilised.  What good is freedom in a world where we are uncivilised?  There has to be a balance, otherwise we live in anarchy.  That is not a world I want my grandchildren growing up in, because in a world like that longterm freedom is not guaranteed either.  

BabyCat wrote: Yes, it sucks. Deaths sooner or later. No vaccine, no treatment.   And, if I haven't beaten this horse enough, a largely self-inflicted financial nuclear 10,000 kiloton MIRV attack has hit the US, and the world, and I really don't think I'm being too over-dramatic.  People are starting to stop payment on rent, their mortgages, credit cards, etc. There is no certainty that those who've kept their jobs will still have them. Other countries are likely going to fair much worse without a central bank turning on the money spigot (delayed and less than promised as it is). Another month of this, a full-scale economic depression awaits.  Incalculable costs, unrecoverable for many for years. This will lead to many sad effects.

BC - what would you have people do, "go back to work?"  Doesn't work that way - all major US companies now have restrictions on office hours, bank lobby services etc.  They do this to protect their workers and to mitigate their own risks, such as lawsuits from workers who might be infected. 

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/walmart-hit-wrongful-death-lawsuit-employee-dies-covid/story?id=70040675 - https://abcnews.go.com/Business/walmart-hit-wrongful-death-lawsuit-employee-dies-covid/story?id=70040675

The economy will re-start when the major employers say it will.  In the meantime, I'm seeing a great deal of productivity from workers at home, this is likely a permanent feature of society.  Office buildings, dry cleaners, commuting etc. may become obsolete.

Interesting comment  DrCRP.   Yes I have noticed that alot of people are starting to realize they can work from home who never thought it possible. Many just didn’t want to  believe the internet can handle the traffic. Some are realizing that child care costs and commutes are not worrh the hassle and they love  being around for their kids.  I think we are going to see a major shift in our society 

QUOTE- CRS - 

Usk wrote: Interesting comment  DrCRP.   Yes I have noticed that alot of people are starting to realize they can work from home who never thought it possible. Many just didn’t want to  believe the internet can handle the traffic. Some are realizing that child care costs and commutes are not worrh the hassle and they love  being around for their kids.  I think we are going to see a major shift in our society

I pray you two are correct - I watched this yesterday (or day before - losing track of time) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18NUtGilAzY - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18NUtGilAzY

The silver lining out of all this may just be a much healthier planet and hopefully a much less consumer driven ('stuff' being replaced by family/love) world.  We'll see.  

I don't have any answers. Every option is bad. Some are just worse than others.

I'm just heartbroken all around. I know it's easy to criticize 

Stick, belt, wrench. We just have to accept there will be significant deaths no matter our choices, and discuss openly a prudent balance, as morbid and callous as that sounds.   I think it is unreasonable to try to minimize short-term deaths without consideration if other factors which could likely lead to as much as, if not worse, effects, including deaths.We are just buying time, but again, wasting it like we did after China announced.

Perhaps my constructive point should be this. We haven't put near enough effort to develop a reasonable plan for companies, people to find a balance. No plans for large scale testing, no plans for mandatory masks (surgical/procdure masks are super cheap to make, quick to produce), identification of best use of resources (protecting food supply/distribution, instead of financial instruments), etc. 

Look, the Fed is buying everything but equities, all in. Already $12 trillion, I  last month, $40,000 for everyone in US. Seeing anything close to that for you yet? Misplaced priorities. How much of that is going to mask production, testing (antibody, especially), and determination of attack rate, iCFR, prevalence, etc. so we can base policy on real data, not guesses and models that are inherently unreliable. Garbage in, garbage out, data wise.

We should be having a massive effort for testing, a Manhattan Project to sample, analyze and monitor disease prevalence, develop antibody and testing for all, new procedures for isolation of vulnerable, mandatory masks provided by government, etc. None of this is happening yet. No large scale contact tracing or mandatory public identification of case locations like SK either. No one knows anything. We are responding blindly, and a balance hasn't been seen yet. I will look at Ecuador as a possible model. Impossible to test in mass, people need to work to eat, too poor a country for everyone to get a check, but people will make reasonable trade-offs and decisions on a personal level.  People don't have luxury to telecommute.

Can somebody see an error in my "back of a napkin" post above? Like I said, the lower fatality numbers are through July or some such, not through the pandemic. The Imperial College and Lancet studies were through the end of the pandemic. Big difference there. . . .

Edited to add: Fauci is still saying 60k deaths. . . but does not give a time frame. What do you think? Total for the pandemic, or through July like the Univ. of Washington studies time frame.

Thorne! wrote: Can somebody see an error in my "back of a napkin" post above? Like I said, the lower fatality numbers are through July or some such, not through the pandemic. The Imperial College and Lancet studies were through the end of the pandemic. Big difference there. . . . Edited to add: Fauci is still saying 60k deaths. . . but does not give a time frame. What do you think? Total for the pandemic, or through July like the Univ. of Washington studies time frame.

A few days ago, I plotted out a curve that estimated 35-45,000 total US deaths total through June due to Sars2-nCov-2019, equivalent to a slightly elevated ILI season. I didn't post it. I was going to counter the 100-260 figure as fear mongering and govt using it for control and credit for success when lower, but decided against it I also think that overall mortality rates will significantly shrink overall (less accidents, etc) during this martial law period. But once we out out of government curfew, deaths will rebound and increase, because of a severe recession (at the least), and a possible rebound in cases, leading to rolling lockdowns again, because the authorities in most countries still won't have their shit together to provide population level testing or reasonable plans. I believe the evidence that of a highly transmissble but less lethal virus could lead to significant political instability, and so it will be discouraged, or buried.

Babycat, how old are you?

You are suggesting that we should just let the virus run it's course, but are you prepared to gamble with your life and risk death to resume a normal life? Or are you planning to allow the rest of America to risk it and you will stay SIP? I've asked you if you'll risk it before but you didn't answer. So I'm asking you personally again - will you risk possible death in an attempt to save the economy?

KiwiMum wrote: Babycat, how old are you? You are suggesting that we should just let the virus run it's course, but are you prepared to gamble with your life and risk death to resume a normal life? Or are you planning to allow the rest of America to risk it and you will stay SIP? I've asked you if you'll risk it before but you didn't answer. So I'm asking you personally again - will you risk possible death in an attempt to save the economy?

I'm fine. Thanks. This question is based on a false assumption/premise. I'm not suggesting allowing the Big Burn. I'm suggesting finding a balance between unreasonable, disproportionate shutdown and actual data and science. It is not do I choose money over life. And, for that matter, money provides a way for people to LIVE, to eat, etc. Also, the data is spotty, and being used to peddle fear in my opinion. Life is not a guarantee. I will take all reasonable precautions for myself, my family, and society at large. But not to the extent where we all need to cower in fear like little rabbits and give up EVERYTHING and ALL POWER to a authorities that have not shown it has our best interests in mind. Again, the pandemic is real. Many people have died and will die. There are still many unknowns. Are we really trying to find out about them with the same sense of urgency in saving the stock market? But, we have choices on our responses. I also think we are being lied to about it in many important ways.

"Those who would trade essential freedom for a little temporary security deserve neither"

I know Kiwis like you are under one of the world's most stringent lockdown, for perhaps the most minimal cases. Was it justified? We will see.

Unemployment rate is about 10% right now. I believe it was about 2% before this "soft" lockdown. Hopefully those who have to collect unemployment while sitting on the couch can handle this while the rest of the population keeps the country operating. There's no room for whiners while we try to figure out a solution. 

ha, ha, yes, no whining. Need to figure out a solution. I've made more than several suggestions.

Let me know if the authorities try any one of them any time soon.

Discussing opening the US in May, but lack most effective public health intervention measures.,

Masks? Nah.

Serollogical testing? Nah.

Maybe a little tracing and surveillance. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-officials-lay-groundwork-for-may-reopening/ar-BB12otN7?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout - https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-officials-lay-groundwork-for-may-reopening/ar-BB12otN7?

Totally agree with babycat on this as I learn more about Dr Fauci and Dr Birx and the whole history of the vaccine mafia.  I do feel that the globalist may have a hand in this to push their agenda and control of us sheep.

never thought I'd be here but after just a little investigation and a lot of common sense...here I am

nc_girl wrote: Totally agree with babycat on this as I learn more about Dr Fauci and Dr Birx and the whole history of the vaccine mafia.  I do feel that the globalist may have a hand in this to push their agenda and control of us sheep. never thought I'd be here but after just a little investigation and a lot of common sense...here I am

Check out my latest post "Not a CV..."...prepare to be blown away. 

https://truepundit.com/exclusive-top-feds-not-a-coronavirus-that-came-from-a-bat-something-much-worse/ - https://truepundit.com/exclusive-top-feds-not-a-coronavirus-that-came-from-a-bat-something-much-worse/

If this is true, and people don't get off their asses and demand change, I don't know what ever will.

Fauci beholden to vax cos, Redfield and assistant Birx investigated by FBI for PERJURY and false studies in NEJM  regarding HIV vaccine they say worked! They are a menace to the public, and somehow they end up in charge??? We are being played!

Ok, we do know that opening up too soon will lead to more cases.  here is the issue,  we are dammed if we do, dammed if we don't, situation here.  What I am seeing hers is the what if brigade.  i can tell you what would happen if we had no stay at home orders.  massive death and massive suffering, social dislocation and rioting.  The lower death rate so far is a cause to celebrate.  We need to keep our eyes on the prize.  This is a long term struggle that will last into the fall and winter.   

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-central-planning-medical-experts-will-lead-disaster - https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-central-planning-medical-experts-will-lead-disaster

ME163 wrote: Ok, we do know that opening up too soon will lead to more cases.  here is the issue,  we are dammed if we do, dammed if we don't, situation here.  What I am seeing hers is the what if brigade.  i can tell you what would happen if we had no stay at home orders.  massive death and massive suffering, social dislocation and rioting.  The lower death rate so far is a cause to celebrate.  We need to keep our eyes on the prize.  This is a long term struggle that will last into the fall and winter.

Prove it. Show me the evidence for your conclusions, please.

BabyCat wrote: I'm fine. Thanks. This question is based on a false assumption/premise. I'm not suggesting allowing the Big Burn. I'm suggesting finding a balance between unreasonable, disproportionate shutdown and actual data and science. It is not do I choose money over life. And, for that matter, money provides a way for people to LIVE, to eat, etc. Also, the data is spotty, and being used to peddle fear in my opinion. Life is not a guarantee. I will take all reasonable precautions for myself, my family, and society at large. But not to the extent where we all need to cower in fear like little rabbits and give up EVERYTHING and ALL POWER to a authorities that have not shown it has our best interests in mind. Again, the pandemic is real. Many people have died and will die. There are still many unknowns. Are we really trying to find out about them with the same sense of urgency in saving the stock market? But, we have choices on our responses. I also think we are being lied to about it in many important ways. "Those who would trade essential freedom for a little temporary security deserve neither" I know Kiwis like you are under one of the world's most stringent lockdown, for perhaps the most minimal cases. Was it justified? We will see.

But you haven't answered the question: would you be happy to go back to work, and to go back into society in the way you did before all this? Or do you want the rest of society to be up and running, but plan on personally isolating further, just in case?

I'm not trying to be difficult here, but there are a lot of calls for restrictions to ease up, and these are being made solely to try and stave off an economic depression the likes of which none of us have seen before. But this disease is still a killer, and it's still in its infancy, and we still know so little about it. My question is, are any of the people who are calling for restrictions to be listed actually willing to go back out there and risk their own personal health to save the economy. Personally, I"m not. No one, regardless of age, is guaranteed a mild dose of this virus, and anyone of us could potentially be killed by it. 

Of course in an ideal world, everyone else would go out there and get it, herd immunity would develop and the economy would keep struggling along, and all the time we'd be holed up in our own safe self isolation bubble until the all clear was sounded. But we don't live in an ideal world. So are you personally prepared to risk it?

Yes.

 At the moment, not afraid of dying.  Life is wonderful and precious, but we all should understand we must all die someday.  I don't have a "death wish" but I do understand facts, logic, and common sense. There is no minimum level of risk in anything. Driving a car, whatever. I wear my seat belt, try to drive safely, train myself, etc. but sometimes a crash happens and there is nothing I can do to avoid it. I didn't choose to live through a pandemic at my age, but I simply don't have a choice in the matter. I can minimize risk as much as possible, but not to the point where I become a hermit and run away for three years. Life, to me, is simply not meant to be lived like that. This is the realm of philosophy, and poetry, and humankind's best writers, and I can't do it justice enough, but you get the point. A life well-lived.

 I cannot choose not to die, however, I can choose how to live. Bravely, if simply being brave means stepping out the front door.

I would certainly try to minimize risk to myself and others, wear a mask, take reasonable precautions, but ultimately I may become infected. The risk at this point cannot be reduced to zero, and it is simply wishful thinking it can. Humans have survived pandemics before and we will survive this one soon enough. What are we going to do - hide in our houses for two years while everyone else lives their lives as best and safely as they can? Please.

Firefighters rushing into a burning building, ICU nurses in COVID-19 ward. Brave, by choice, not reckless nor love life any less.

There is something nagging me, which is, what a perfect time to engineer a literal coup. Everyone hiding in their homes furing a pandemic which may have been engineered...who's going to stop them, or even understand what's happening in plain sight

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8206895/Ron-Paul-calls-Trump-fire-Fauci-hes-trying-total-control-people.html - https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8206895/Ron-Paul-calls-Trump-fire-Fauci-hes-trying-total-control-people.html

Fauci goes, and we’ll have nobody on the task force with any credentials prepared to correct Trump when he puts his own spin on things. Birx, Verma and Adams seem reluctant to step up and do it, and I’ve yet to hear Ben Carson say anything about the virus.

If there had been no mandatory social distancing, we’d be having a very different conversation.

BabyCat wrote: Prove it. Show me the evidence for your conclusions, please.

Come to the tri-state area.  

Look, I get what you're saying. But you're ignoring the fact that lives are at stake here. The infection rate is huge compared to the flu even though the CFR can be construed as comparable. The best idea, I think, is to get wide-spread rapid testing and antibody testing to determine who can go back to work. Although I have issue with some of the ideas on how to register those workers who are infection free / immune.

The fact is we may never get a vaccine. But we don't even have a viable treatment yet.  Open up before that and we are screwed.   It's true that many will not die of this disease, but hospitals are being overwhelmed.  Its a clue that we're not behind the curve yet enough to be proactive instead of reactive, if I may put that rhetoric out there.  

Scientific UK starting to plan exit strategy.

Quote from BBC

"adviser Prof Neil Ferguson, who was asked about coming out after lockdown said  it would likely be done on age group and location.

Hazelpad. Love what the Brits have in mind but would prefer an antibodies test to help clearly see what is going on to protect our first responders

I just love all these people who say, "I'll just take precautions" while they are demanding others work in a healthcare environment with a constant high viral load for endless months.

Even with good protection, 20 percent of cases are healthcare workers. And you want to maintain that until natural immunity...

It's going be funny when all these people get to the hospital after taking precautions for 5 months - finally getting exposed - and find out no one's there because the people they counted on to just suck it up and work in a constant high viral load environment - and wait for them to finally be exposed - left their job months prior to their arrival.

Babycat

How about you assume you are a ER doc ( or nurse ) and then answer FluMom's question 

You are so worried about everyone else's job ( and money ) that you haven't realized that - when you try to save those jobs - you are forcing people out of what are, currently, society's most vital jobs. The people you just rely on being there; just sitting there waiting for you and yours...

Take a swing at FluMom's question under 2 circumstances

1) that during your "I'll take all the precautions" life, you are a ER doc

2) What you are going to do when - 5 months from now and your precautions failed - you or a member of your clan is in respiratory compromise and you get the hospital only to find they all quit.

Sigh.   Dr. Carson has it about right. 

Hysteria is also a problem.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-ben-carson-coronavirus-recoveries-98-percent - https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-ben-carson-coronavirus-recoveries-98-percent

Answer the question.

Stop deflecting

I thought I did.

This is starting to sound like a cult or echo chamber. 

I'm out.

Let's talk about the gals who work in the nursing homes and make right above minimum wage while they do.

Now, obviously, we want to keep it out of nursing homes during the save-other-people's-money plan, right?

Children are known to be silent spreaders.

So, to address and break the chain of silent super spreader abilty of children in groups, are these gals supposed to give up their children or are their children supposed to give up education?

Because if the plan is to allow this to frequently circulate, limit spread, and try to chase it with whack-a-mole - and doing so with hopes that the less vulnerable can build a herd immunity to protect the vulnerable - it's going to result in these type of situations needing to be addressed. Are we going to just hope they sacrifice every other part of their life or mandate it?

So which is it? Breaking their relationship with their children or denying their children's right to education?

The save-other-people's-money plan silently comes with healthcare providers just accepting they are going to work in high risk situations for endless months. And the other part of that plan that no one mentions but logically - ( and either consciously or unconsciously ) - stipulates is that it also requires healthcare providers to do this while they also break family ties with their vulnerable and with anyone in their life who can spread it to the vulnerable. It's that or that they live with the guilt of causing death after death after death ..

Yeah, they are going to do that - and do it just to save other people's money - instead of just quitting their jobs. Sure Jan...

Ben Carson needs to leave his cozy office at HUD and spend some time in an ER or ICU in one of the areas hardest hit. The guy is clueless.

So true Jack sdad

ClapBack wrote: I just love all these people who say, "I'll just take precautions" while they are demanding others work in a healthcare environment with a constant high viral load for endless months. Even with good protection, 20 percent of cases are healthcare workers. And you want to maintain that until natural immunity... It's going be funny when all these people get to the hospital after taking precautions for 5 months - finally getting exposed - and find out no one's there because the people they counted on to just suck it up and work in a constant high viral load environment - and wait for them to finally be exposed - left their job months prior to their arrival. Babycat How about you assume you are a ER doc ( or nurse ) and then answer FluMom's question  You are so worried about everyone else's job ( and money ) that you haven't realized that - when you try to save those jobs - you are forcing people out of what are, currently, society's most vital jobs. The people you just rely on being there; just sitting there waiting for you and yours... Take a swing at FluMom's question under 2 circumstances 1) that during your "I'll take all the precautions" life, you are a ER doc 2) What you are going to do when - 5 months from now and your precautions failed - you or a member of your clan is in respiratory compromise and you get the hospital only to find they all quit.

And from a historical perspective your assumption that all the health care professionals will quit is just fear mongering as past pandemics clearly show that was not the case.

Pandemic flu of 1918 approx 25 million infected with the flu estimated 675,000 died. Nurses and doctors didn't quit.

Pandemic flu of 1957 approx 43 million infected with the flu estimated 116,000 died. Nurses and doctors didn't quit.

Pandemic flu of 1968 approx infected unknown  estimated 70,000 died. Nurses and doctors didn't quit.

And I could go back further in history to illustrate the point.

And in all of those pandemics the world went about their business of living life but with certain precautions. This event will be and should be no different. Life will go on, precautions will be taken but the world isn't going to stop living as a result of the virus. 

And the reality is there may never be an effective vaccine and hope may lie only in a as of yet to be discovered treatment of the symptoms of COVID and taking precautions. But to think the world is going to stop and shut down until there is a vaccine is not really based in reality or history but rather an emotional response. Because history clearly shows the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. And this time will be no different.

Usk wrote: I am beginning to think China got us good. Maybe if we had just let it burn through it would have had 100 to 200 k dead but 2 million was ridiculous

I gave these calculations (Feb 2020) to MDs with the FBI before the UK group came out with theirs: 

US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the denominator is 100 million. CFR may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US.

2 Million deaths assumed NO mitigation steps at all.  However, if we terminate social distancing/mitigation, we could easily reach the original 500,000 that many predicted, and likely higher. 

There are untold mortalities from COVID-19 that were not properly identified as such - many cases were misdiagnosed as "pneumonia" or people died of secondary causes like cardiovascular.  Also, we are likely facing many deaths due to patients unable to access healthcare due to COVID-19 cases saturating the system. 

If you think the economics are bad now, let the US Govt lift restrictions and watch the mortality rate soar.  I guarantee it.  That could trigger a great depression vs. the recession we are facing.   Economies recover better than dead people. 

CRS, DrPH wrote: Usk wrote: I am beginning to think China got us good. Maybe if we had just let it burn through it would have had 100 to 200 k dead but 2 million was ridiculous I gave these calculations (Feb 2020) to MDs with the FBI before the UK group came out with theirs:  US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk for serious illness, the denominator is 100 million. CFR may be 2%, so 2 million might die from this one in the US. 2 Million deaths assumed NO mitigation steps at all.  However, if we terminate social distancing/mitigation, we could easily reach the original 500,000 that many predicted, and likely higher.  There are untold mortalities from COVID-19 that were not properly identified as such - many cases were misdiagnosed as "pneumonia" or people died of secondary causes like cardiovascular.  Also, we are likely facing many deaths due to patients unable to access healthcare due to COVID-19 cases saturating the system.  If you think the economics are bad now, let the US Govt lift restrictions and watch the mortality rate soar.  I guarantee it.  That could trigger a great depression vs. the recession we are facing.   Economies recover better than dead people.

I don't get how people keep thinking along this dichotomy of either people or economy. If 20% of the workforce is sick, or home caring for sick family members, how is the economy going to function then? The answer is it isn't.  If the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, and bodies pile up in makeshift morgues who thinks people are going to risk getting infected, bringing the infection home, or infecting older relatives or friends with comorbidities? 

So very true!  Just as someone said earlier we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t 

BabyCat wrote: nc_girl wrote: Totally agree with babycat on this as I learn more about Dr Fauci and Dr Birx and the whole history of the vaccine mafia.  I do feel that the globalist may have a hand in this to push their agenda and control of us sheep. never thought I'd be here but after just a little investigation and a lot of common sense...here I am Check out my latest post "Not a CV..."...prepare to be blown away.  https://truepundit.com/exclusive-top-feds-not-a-coronavirus-that-came-from-a-bat-something-much-worse/ - https://truepundit.com/exclusive-top-feds-not-a-coronavirus-that-came-from-a-bat-something-much-worse/ If this is true, and people don't get off their asses and demand change, I don't know what ever will. Fauci beholden to vax cos, Redfield and assistant Birx investigated by FBI for PERJURY and false studies in NEJM  regarding HIV vaccine they say worked! They are a menace to the public, and somehow they end up in charge??? We are being played!

Garbage.  I have followed the genetics of SARS-CoV2 since the outbreak began.  

https://www.genengnews.com/news/coronavirus-evolved-naturally-and-is-not-a-laboratory-construct-genetic-study-shows/ - https://www.genengnews.com/news/coronavirus-evolved-naturally-and-is-not-a-laboratory-construct-genetic-study-shows/

This has more genetics for those of us who enjoy it:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9 - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Thorne! wrote: I don't get how people keep thinking along this dichotomy of either people or economy. If 20% of the workforce is sick, or home caring for sick family members, how is the economy going to function then? The answer is it isn't.  If the healthcare system gets overwhelmed, and bodies pile up in makeshift morgues who thinks people are going to risk getting infected, bringing the infection home, or infecting older relatives or friends with comorbidities?

Spot on. You're absolutely right. There is no way out of this one without the economy suffering, and there never was. Even if we were to go back to the beginning, whichever route you choose to take, the economy will suffer.

I should add that I ask because the last week or so I have seen several articles relating that the percentage of asymptomatic cases might be much higher than previously thought. Such as this where the author claimed asymptomatic cases may account for 50 to 75% of COVID19 cases.  Obviously that would of course lower the number requiring hospitalization as well as the CFR but increase the infection rate.

An Italian academic has claimed striking evidence that most people infected with covid-19 show no symptoms but are still able to infect others, which he says has huge implications for testing policy, particularly in hospitals.

Sergio Romagnani, a professor of clinical immunology at the University of Florence, has reported how blanket testing in a completely isolated village of roughly 3000 people in northern Italy saw the number of people with covid-19 symptoms fall by over 90% within 10 days.

Vo’Euganeo, 50 km west of Venice, was closed off by authorities in mid-February, at which point repeat RNA testing of the entire population began. All those with positive tests were quarantined. The number of people sick from covid-19 fell from 88 to seven in less than 10 days, Romagnani reported.

In an open letter to the authorities in the Tuscany region, https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1165#ref-1" style="box-sizing: border-box; background: transparent; color: rgb(42, 110, 187); text-decoration: none; margin: 0px 5px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: bold; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-family: inherit; font-size: 10px; vertical-align: 0.4em; word-break: break-all; - 1 Romagnani wrote that the great majority of people infected with covid-19—50-75%—were asymptomatic, but represented “a formidable source” of contagion.

“The percentage of people infected, even if asymptomatic, in the population is very high and represents the majority of cases, particularly, but not only, among young people. Isolation of asymptomatics is essential for controlling the spread of the virus and the seriousness of the epidemic,” he said.

https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1165 - https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1165

You are going back in history and using pandemicscenarios where there wasn't another option then to work through it. Where options to avoid working in hell didn't exist. You can't do that. It wouldn't be true in this situation. I mean, the whole argument is based on the outcome of different options in how we approach what we now know we can control. The whole argument is are health care workers expendable for the sake of the economy. They are going to say no to that question. And if policy rejects that no, then they will quit.

If you think they won't quit when they are presented with a politcal policy that knowingly and intentionally creates a high viral load, low staffed, foreseeable negligent prone, just under capacity working environment when that environment is completely avoidable but is still pursued to save other people's money, you are very wrong.

They aren't going to risk both their nursing licenses and their and their family members lives just to save other people's money.

Nurses all over the country have already protested and those protests came about when they were tossed into the situation because of poor planning and the only option the country faced was working through it. Yet you think they are just going to suck it up when the planned policy is going to result in the same  hellish and dangerous working conditions...

Lemme ask ya this Al.

Are having concerts,; opening professional and college sports stadiums; lighting up the Vegas strip and casinos; and don't other things like,say, resuming large business conferences where most of the attendees travel in from all over part of your open-back plan pre-vaccine?

Or are you just talking a few guys having a beer at the local bar?

EDIT - I am aware of the complexity of a vaccine and understand it could either be a long way off/may not be possible. 

Certainly us homo sapiens rule the earth and we will conquer this too with our combined intellect.  That said we are in for a rough ride

Interesting video from an ICU nurse

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCgea5o3ALU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCgea5o3ALU

Al,

Thank you for your answer. I think what you said is fair enough

Perhaps what some governments are failing to realise is that health care workers can, if they choose, walk off the job. They are not members of the armed services who can be court marshalled for disobeying an order or for going awol. Doctors and nurses are free to stay home if they want. If governments push them too far, fail after repeated requests to provide adequate PPE, or force them to really dance with danger all for a fairly inconsequential pay cheque, then they might just decide not to come in. And they'll be nothing that the governments will be able to do to force them. 

A nurse on my cousin's team in an NHS hospital in the UK has just died from it. All in the name of her job.

Newbie1A wrote: Interesting video from an ICU nurse https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCgea5o3ALU - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCgea5o3ALU

I'm having a hard time believing that person is a nurse.  She got too much wrong about how things work.  First, you absolutely do test someone in hospice in a care home if they are symptomatic.   If you don't it spreads like a brushfire.  A nurse should know that.   Second, a person gets certified for hospice when they have a terminal disease with the likelihood that they will die sometime in the next year.  If they do not die, they can get recertified if their condition still meets certain criteria.  Hospice in itself does not mean that death is imminent, nor does it mean that their remaining time is without value.  If covid 19 takes that person's life it is cause of death.  Period.  The doctor cannot ethically call it something it was not.  The "nurse" also does not seem to understand the concept of "novel virus" or who that circumvents the immune system.  The frequent policy changes thing is legit.  I say the person maybe works in a hospital or knows someone who does, but does not understand what is happening.

Edited to add:  Longterm care patients are actually prioritized for Covid 19 testing.  We get our results back in about 24 hours.  I don't see how a professional nurse could think there is wiggle room on cause of death to fit a particular worldview.

I can't comment with regards to COD in any American state, but over here, if covid19 is part of the cause COD is attributed to THE OTHER factors.

I have seen the mass graves in NY, the horror in Wuhan, Italy, Spain and London.

Sorry!   I don't believe a word of it either.

It would help if there was some universal classification of secondary diagnoses.  Accurate data would help everyone form better policy.  I have taken care of people who spent years on hospice.

Edited to add:  The US standard for primary diagnosis is what the patient was hospitalized for in the first place.  If there are comorbidities that effect care, that is a secondary diagnosis.  Likewise, if a patient was hospitalized for something like surgery and acquired a viral infection while hospitalized, the viral infection is secondary.  

I found a beautiful quote:

Don't unbuckle your parachute just because it's slowing your descent nicely.  Wait till you are on the ground.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/are-vast-majority-of-covid-cases-asymptomatic.php - https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/are-vast-majority-of-covid-cases-asymptomatic.php

ARE VAST MAJORITY OF COVID CASES ASYMPTOMATIC?

I thought that you would be interested in this story I found on MSN: Doctors in London alerted to 'coronavirus-related condition' emerging in children http://a.msn.com/05/en-gb/BB13gDSN?ocid=se - http://a.msn.com/05/en-gb/BB13gDSN?ocid=se

I think we still don’t know enough about asymtomatics