[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/visual-tool-gauge-risk-second-coronavirus-wave[/url] linking reopening with R0 can give some indication of "second wave"-far from perfect-South Korea numbers go up sharply-[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20200529002254320?section=science/medicine[/url] ; SEOUL, May 29 (Yonhap) -- South Korea reported more than 50 new virus cases for the second consecutive day Friday, all in the Seoul metropolitan area due to logistics center-tied cluster infections, putting renewed strain on health authorities to contain further spread in the densely populated region. South Korea reported 58 more additional COVID-19 cases, raising the total caseload to 11,402, according to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC). Of them, 55 were local infections. Friday's tally marks a drop from the nearly two-month high of 79 the previous day. All new infections were reported in Seoul and the surrounding area, home to half of the country's population of more than 50 million, putting health authorities on edge. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-best-advance-indicator-if-second-wave-coronavirus-coming[/url]; To wit, a team of researchers from Yale University in New Haven, Conn. published a paper earlier this month on their studies of SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the sewage in the Greater New Haven area. In the abstract of their report, the team determined that "when adjusted for the time lag, the virus RNA concentrations were highly correlated with the COVID-19 epidemiological curve (R2 =0.99) and local hospital admissions (R2 =0.99). SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were a seven-day leading indicator ahead of compiled COVID-19 testing data and led local hospital admissions data by three days." The search for a reliable leading indicator is critical for developing an effective policy response, since the most closely watched data (reports on the number of newly diagnosed cases) is a lagging indicator, since tests typically aren't run on an individual until symptoms of the virus have already started to appear. Scientists have already proven that SARS-CoV-2 RNA is present in the human waste of COVID-19 patients. That then seeps into the wastewater in a given community's collection system. An analysis of RNA concentrations in waste can, according to the researchers, "provide information on the prevalence and dynamics of infection for entire populations." By analyzing wastewater from a sewage plant that serves a four-municipality area (pop ~200,000 residents), the researchers applied several data processing techniques to smooth the data and allow for fair comparisons between the sewage data and data collected by the local hospital system in New Haven.
------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein
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