I was reading on BBC about "Financial Animals", and they had this:-
There's been a huge debate raging about whether the pandemic is a black swan - a high-impact event that makes more sense in hindsight - or a grey rhino, something you really should have expected and done something about.Michele Wucker is the policy analyst and author who first came up with the idea of the grey rhino. "The grey rhino is the big, obvious, scary beast with a horn pointed straight at you that gives you a choice of what to do: get trampled, get out of the way, or harness its strength," she tells the BBC. |
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56484986 - https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56484986 Do you think that the current pandemic was a Black Swan or a Grey Rhino event?
I tend towards the Black Swan, as we were looking more for a Flu Pandemic not a coronavirus one. But if countries had really prepared for a Flu Pandemic they might not have been scrambling at the beginning like they were, so we should have prepared for a Rhino, we just were looking at the wrong Rhino.
ps. Carbon might have a different take, as a gather that where he lives black swans are quite common .
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