How bad can it get ?
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Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=44008
Printed Date: April 26 2024 at 4:41pm
Topic: How bad can it get ?
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Subject: How bad can it get ?
Date Posted: July 02 2021 at 2:07am
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DJ : Old World diseases carried by Europeans had a devastating effect in the New World, as the native people in the Americas had no natural immunity to them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measles" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Measles - Measles caused many deaths. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Smallpox - smallpox epidemics are believed to have caused the largest death tolls among Native Americans, surpassing any wars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbian_exchange#cite_note-30" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [30] and far exceeding the comparative loss of life in Europe due to the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Black Death - Black Death . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbian_exchange#cite_note-history-1" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [1] :164 It is estimated that upwards of 80–95 percent of the Native American population died in these epidemics within the first 100–150 years following 1492. Many regions in the Americas lost 100% of their indigenous population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbian_exchange#cite_note-history-1" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [1] :165 The beginning of demographic collapse on the North American continent has typically been attributed to the spread of a well-documented smallpox epidemic from Hispaniola in December 1518. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Columbian_exchange#cite_note-:0-25" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [25] At that point approximately only 10,000 indigenous people were still alive on Hispaniola. So let me be very clear ! Between 1500 and 1650 over 90% of the Native American population died due to infectious disease ! In AD 588 a second major wave of plague spread through the Mediterranean into what is now France. It is estimated that the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Plague of Justinian - Plague of Justinian killed as many as 100 million people across the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_plague#cite_note-19" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [19] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_plague#cite_note-20" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [20] It caused https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_demography" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Medieval demography - Europe's population to drop by around 50% between 541 and 700. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_plague#cite_note-21" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [21] It also may have contributed to the success of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_conquests" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Arab conquests - Arab conquests - From 1331 to 1351, the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Black Death - Black Death , a massive and deadly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Pandemic - pandemic originating in China, spread along the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Silk Road - Silk Road and swept through Asia, Europe and Africa. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_plague#cite_note-nytimes-17" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [17] It may have reduced the world's population from 450 million to between 350 and 375 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_plague#cite_note-25" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [25] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="China - China lost around half of its population, from around 123 million to around 65 million; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Europe" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Europe - Europe around one third of its population, from about 75 million to about 50 million; and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Africa" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Africa - Africa approximately 1⁄8 of its population, from around 80 million to 70 million (mortality rates tended to be correlated with population density so Africa, being less dense overall, had the lowest death rate). This makes the Black Death the largest death toll from any known non-viral epidemic. Although accurate statistical data does not exist, it is thought that 1.4 million died in England (1⁄3 of England's 4.2 million people), while an even higher percentage of Italy's population was likely wiped out. On the other hand, north-eastern Germany, Bohemia, Poland and Hungary are believed to have suffered less, and there are no estimates available for Russia or the Balkans. It is conceivable that Russia may not have been as affected due to its very cold climate and large size, hence often less close contact with the contagion. DJ-Regional differences in history may be very large. Some area's may have all people dying-while other regions did not see a case. ------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Replies:
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: July 02 2021 at 2:38am
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The basic idea among both many health-experts and politicians was an infectious disease in the 21st century would be a low risk. Allthough travel would see high speed spread of disease-somehow a widespread idea was; 1-Detection of a health risk would be fast and 2-Stopping the spread/containment of the risk would be enough to deal with a disease... Reality did see China-Wuhan lockdown end of january 2020-with limits on air travel much to slow. Spring 2021 India-variants getting out of control in South Asia-again air travel did spread the variants... Also stopping spread "is damaging the economy" as if viral spread-massive disease would be "good for the economy"...Yes-we did see vaccines end of 2020-but vaccines to stop a pandemic would be new ! Most experience pandemic-wise has been in flu. 1918/19 Spanish Flu killing 2-5% of global population-maybe between 50 and 100 million people gets close to historic pandemics. But some of those did kill over 30% of the population-in % 2 to 5% is "a mild pandemic". The 1957 and 1968 flu's did see maybe up to 4 million global deaths-a "normal flu year" as average between 500,000-600,000 deaths... DJ-But HIV+ persons having to deal with a corona-virus pandemic have a much worse outlook. See also;One-quarter of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="World population - world's current population has been infected with https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mycobacterium_tuberculosis" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Mycobacterium tuberculosis - Mycobacterium tuberculosis , and new infections occur at a rate of one per second. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-WHO2004data-154" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [153] About 5–10% of these latent infections will eventually progress to active disease, which, if left untreated, kills more than half its victims. Annually, eight million people become ill with tuberculosis, and two million die from the disease worldwide. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-CDC-155" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [154] In the 19th century, tuberculosis killed an estimated one-quarter of the adult population of Europe; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-156" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [155] by 1918, one in six deaths in France were still caused by tuberculosis. During the 20th century, tuberculosis killed approximately 100 million people. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-Measles-150" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [149] TB is still one of the most important health problems in the developing world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#cite_note-157" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [156] In 2018, Tuberculosis becomes the leading cause of death from an infectious disease, with roughly 1.5 million deaths worldwide DJ-Malaria, diabetes, obesity, aging all can make the present Covid-pandemic more complex. A zoonosis (plural zoonoses, or zoonotic diseases) is an https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infectious_disease" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Infectious disease - infectious disease caused by a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathogen" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Pathogen - pathogen (an infectious agent, such as a bacterium, virus, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parasite" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Parasite - parasite or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prion" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Prion - prion ) that has https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-species_transmission" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Cross-species transmission - jumped from an animal (usually a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vertebrate" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Vertebrate - vertebrate ) to a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Human - human . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-mw-1" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-2" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-sgc-3" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [3] Typically, the first infected human transmits the infectious agent to at least one other human, who, in turn, infects others. Major modern diseases such as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Ebola virus disease - Ebola virus disease and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salmonellosis" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Salmonellosis - salmonellosis are zoonoses. HIV was a zoonotic disease transmitted to humans in the early part of the 20th century, though it has now mutated to a separate human-only disease. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-Orgin2011-4" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-Faria2014-5" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-Marx2001-6" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [6] Most strains of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title=" - influenza that infect humans are human diseases, although many strains of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 - bird flu and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="Influenza A virus subtype H1N1 - swine flu are zoonoses; these viruses occasionally recombine with human strains of the flu and can cause pandemics such as the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_Spanish_flu" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="1918 Spanish flu - 1918 Spanish flu or the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none;" title="2009 swine flu - 2009 swine flu . DJ-The general idea is Covid19 may have come from bats-(via pangolins ?). Zoonoses have different modes of transmission. In direct zoonosis the disease is directly transmitted from animals to humans through media such as air ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Influenza - influenza ) or through bites and saliva ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabies" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Rabies - rabies ). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-11" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [11] In contrast, transmission can also occur via an intermediate species (referred to as a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vector_(epidemiology)" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Vector (epidemiology) - vector ), which carry the disease pathogen without getting sick. When humans infect animals, it is called reverse zoonosis or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthroponosis" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Anthroponosis - anthroponosis . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoonosis#cite_note-12" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; - [12] The term is from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_language" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none rgb(255, 255, 255); font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; font-style: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" title="Greek language - Greek : ζῷον zoon "animal" and νόσος nosos "sickness". With the risk of a disease jumping from non-human to human hosts over and over again...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_zoonosis[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_zoonosis - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_zoonosis Coronavirus[ https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Reverse_zoonosis&action=edit§ion=25" style="text-decoration: none; color: rgb(6, 69, 173); background: none; white-space: nowrap;" title="Edit section: Coronavirus - edit ]
DJ That brings us to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#History[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#History - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus#History Coronaviruses in animals being a long term problem... ------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: July 02 2021 at 2:58am
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How bad can it get ? One could look at lotst of aspects; -Duration-DJ-My impression is corona-virus in humans-bringing more then "just a mild cold" may be a long term problem. -Severity of disease is another issue. Long Covid/post viral syndrome and organ damage (amputations) are widespread. Fungul infections have been reported from around the globe in Covid patients... -Case Fatality Ratio may be much to early to tell. I think it is reasonable to assume between 0,2 and 0,5% of the global population did die from Covid-19 between january 1 2020 and july 1 2021...maybe that % is "on the safe side"-in real numbers that would be between 8 and 40 million people...To get a case-fatality ratio [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ - https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ one could go for 180 million cases as a basis. So if you would go for a CFR-with 8 million deaths CFR would be over 4%, if you go for 40 million people dying from Covid19 one may end up at over 21%... A realistic CFR can only be made realistic AFTER an outbreak. So where are we now ? Start of this pandemic getting global may have been unnoticed in 2019-became clear as a risk early 2020. Vaccines were presented as "the solution" end of 2020-early 2021 and may have to show themselves. Do they buy us time only ? Can they stop this pandemic in combination with NPI ? Can Ivermectin-like medication help ? If one would have asked most people may 2020 what to expect a lot of them would expect the pandemic could have ended in 2021.. With the Delta-and other variants-I am unclear on what to think... Worst case this pandemic gets more deadlier-massive vaccine escape-society collapse (in combination with climate collapse, wars..) Best case vaccines, summer, NPI, Ivermectin, natural immunity...lots of people doing clever things...get us out of the pandemic in 2022 ? In history natural immunity had to stop pandemics. Natural immunity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKGH-hfTv9U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKGH-hfTv9U - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKGH-hfTv9U may still be a major factor... ------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: November 22 2021 at 12:06am
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DJ We are now some 5 months further...and time so far did tell a lot...Delta(+) did get a lot worse...stories on new variants, recombinations, Delta+ further developing... The idea I get is ; leaving the taps open of the bath...stops in and expecting "water will run out" ...even when water is allready all over the house... Herd immunity-even with the help of vaccines-is NOT stopping this pandemic...booster vaccines may offer less, shorter protection. New vaccines and better treatments are confronted with an ever fasting mutating virus finding ways around it... Is there no hope ? Hope has to be in the hearths and minds of people trying to find ways out of problems...We do not know all of climate change, this pandemic...we may "hope" for some positive surprises...False hope should not stop us from taking action... Vaccines did a remarkable good job...even limiting spread of the virus ! But not enough to end this pandemic...we had to include restrictions longer...but we did not... So surviving this crisis may be in better vaccines and lowering the spread...more restrictions...long enough to work ! Since I am NOT an expert I try to get some idea of how it may look like... -Better vaccines, treatments are "on their way" in many countries...we will see them soon-maybe not in 2021...but very likely in 2022. -Lockdowns in many countries are unavoidable now...restrictions may need to last years... -Communications have to improve a lot...Europe/US may see "a dramatic winter"...it may change the way people see this crisis...(The shore stopping the ship...learning the hard way...). -False optimism has to end !!!! Over optimistic experts advised politics that translated the science in even more unrealistic over-optimistic strategies...That is NOT the way to get out of a crisis ! We may not be able to shut down the water running from the taps in the bath completely...but limiting it would allready be a good thing ! Do we need to know exactly how CoViD-19 started ? Can we get that clear ? We did know pandemics were a real risk for decades ! -Limiting travel may stop the spread ! -Going to your job/school while feeling ill is not "being strong" but being a risk...paid sickleave may help ! -Good basic public health, monitoring, prevention also can make a difference ! So we need to reform society...just like we need to do in climate collapse...The longer we refuse to do so the harder it will get to get out of this crisis ! I want to stay optimistic-I want to hope we can get out of this crisis... DJ-History has a lot of examples on hopeless positions that did turn good later on. Joseph Kennedy was US ambassador to the UK in world war 2...In 1940-41 he did expect the UK would have to give up the war with Germany...The US getting into the war officialy only after Pearl Harbour.-december 1941..Western Europe overrun by the Germans in june 1940...Germany and the Soviet Union not at war till summer 1941... We know (most of) the outcome of that war...and the costs.... Doing the best you can may sometimes be the only option left...(World War Two has a lot of inspiration...Soviet female soldiers stopping German tanks moving towards Stalingrad from the north...with limited guns...buying enough time for other forces to prepare better defenses...while most of these women were getting killed...But another example may be the radio-people on the Titanic sending alarms on board the sinking ship...knowing they would not survive it...but hoping to save others...). It will get very,very bad...let's be realistic on that for this pandemic...but still we have to do our best to limit damage as much as we can ! Staying informed-as much as one can deal with...is part of it... ------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: November 22 2021 at 5:26pm
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My dear Dutch friend....I sense your fear and frustration. Consider this pandemic to be like a championship football game, with a clumsy, amateurish team (humanity) against a very skilled, trophy-winning team (virus). The virus is able to skillfully dodge, weave, and penetrate defenses again and again, and the best the amateur team can do is try to beat them back. That is what we face with an RNA virus like coronavirus. Since they mutate prolifically (and we don't detect all of the variants of concern), they are able to dodge around our defenses, much like our favorite footballers. By the time we formulate new vaccines and boosters, they have already evolved to be more potent and deadly. We lose, again and again. We desperately need to rob the virus of the ability and freedom to mutate - however, with so many in the world resisting mandatory action (like the Netherlands, my friend) and vaccination, this pandemic will never end, just ebb and flow. Eventually, susceptible humans will either be wiped out or learn their defensive lessons. We are a long way away from conclusion. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: November 23 2021 at 10:58pm
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CRS,DrPH...I hate it when we -more or less-agree on this kind of bad news....[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html - http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html in the "climate change" (it is collapsing...okay that is "change"...the Titanic is still "on its way"....) discussion Guy McPherson and a group around him tend to claim "We are allready dead"... I do not agree with such vision...allthough I understand the science behind it...basically...(I would discuss "positive feedbacks" Nature bats last does mean nature is very creative...you could even see this pandemic as a way of nature getting rid of a major problem...infection of humans...Greenland, CAA landice moving into the ocean could "repair" loss of sea-ice, slow down methane release...). If you get a bad diagnosis the first question often is "How long do I have left"? Timing matters... We are now getting into "deep water" with this pandemic...things are getting worse-maybe started in Europe but it is allready spread around many other regions... Just like in climate collapse there may be steps to buy at least more time...Global travel restrictions stopping the spread would be #1 on my list ! #2 would be to increase testing/sequencing to the max. In many places there are enough tests (all kinds of...), testing is -often-low tech. Everyone testing on a weekly basis...around the globe...isolation for at least a week/10 days (with basic income, food, housing) if testing positive... Sequencing capacity may remain limited but since a lot of vaccinated people do not test, a lot of poor countries hardly have any testing capacity it would make a difference if there are 10x/100x more samples to sequence...We would maybe get a better picture on how the virus is developing around the globe. #3 would be increasing production/distribution of masks/PPE most of that for HCW-ers...We can not afford loosing them ! (We now loose 1% of them in many places per month ???? From disease/burn-out to giving up the high risk/low pay job. Cleaners in healthcare are also essential workers ! Improving working conditions from better pay to improving childcare may help. We need more hCW-ers now !). #4 Has to be mass-communication...If PR-companies can sell wars they certainly should be able to communicate a more realistic story on how bad this pandemic is... #5 Has to be getting the story on climate change in the hands of metereologists, this pandemic story in the hands of health experts...Politics made a total mess of it ! I refuse to act like there is no hope...Realism on problems may open doors to better solutions ! ------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Posted By: Technophobe
Date Posted: November 24 2021 at 9:09am
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Don't worry Josh. Just keep up the prepping. Even Tesco are in the spirit of prepping now. That was this year's advert. ------------- How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving. |
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: November 26 2021 at 3:02am
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On the new SA/"Nu" variant;
DJ With also Israeli vaccinated cases this story is "very alarming".... Given the time-line "Nu" must be all over the globe by now. Given allready overstretched healthcare shutting travel to/from Southern Africa will NOT do the job ! (DJ-Based on just statistics SE-Asia, parts of South America may also see some new variant ????) Things are getting ugly ! ------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: November 26 2021 at 11:53am
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DJ, please see this article: Regarding climate change....the only way to mitigate this damage is a worldwide effort to remediate carbon pollution out of the atmosphere and convert it into a neutral form for long term storage. This is called "Direct Air Capture." A few companies have technology that works on a small scale, but we need much more. Much of our problem is greed from established corporations and banking systems - they do NOT want to give up on fossil fuels yet, since that would cause major economic turmoil. We could replace all fossil fuels with modular nuclear systems, wind/solar, biogas (my favorite), geothermal, etc. However, there would be many displaced miners and the companies would have huge losses. I think it will take a major disaster to wake people up - perhaps if some coastal cities become inundated with rising seas, the money interests would realize that there are no paths for winning in economic terms. I, too, hate when we agree, my friend. Be safe, NL sounds like it is going through a very tough time. Best, CRS ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: ME163
Date Posted: November 26 2021 at 9:35pm
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Ok, Josh and Doc, What do we do about ME 163 and Vicki. Should we go back to the bubble and stay there. We are very concerned about this new variant. Should we go and get the isolation rooms ready ? Should we go into lockdown mode ? Jill and Becky, Very concerned. |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: November 26 2021 at 10:23pm
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My wife and I largely live in bubble-mode already. We finally went out for a show (Hamilton), but wore masks during the entire production. I wouldn't panic yet, this is what I recommend: a) do NOT let your guard down! Make sure you have all of your vaccination and boosters up to date (I had Moderna mRNA vaccine and Pfizer booster, so I'm a mix & match experiment). b) WEAR YOUR MASKS IN PUBLIC PLACES! We are facing a winter surge of Delta variant, so worrying about Omicron does no good if you catch Delta. c) Continue social distancing, hand hygiene, and avoid unvaccinated people. Sorry, even good friends & family. d) Only follow reliable data sources, i.e. WHO and CDC. Do NOT listen to the majority of garbage on the web! It is assumed that Omicron variant is already in the USA and Europe - it takes a while for public health to find these new variants. Omicron variant might not be as virulent (deadly) as Delta, only time will tell. However, it appears to transmit more easily than Delta. Within reason, prepare for disruption. I have 90 day supplies of essential medication, ample food etc. Get your seasonal influenza vaccine!! Both of these viruses will co-circulate. It is OK to get both vaccines together. Keep in touch on this forum, we've done a good job of tracking this so far. Hats off to DJ and everyone! This video is excellent, I highly recommend watching every bit. Omicron may NOT be as lethal as Delta, but we just don't know yet. Stay safe, Chuck ------------- CRS, DrPH |
ME163 wrote:Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: November 26 2021 at 11:36pm
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ME163, CRS, DrPH did give very good advice ! (For all of us !) "My household" is a safe bubble...we do not have visitors...I do NOT follow news for several hours/most of the day...other duties... If you can create a "safe place" and allow yourself to "follow the news" when you want that I think that could be wise... I love being outdoors, riding my bike on sunday morning ignoring traffic lights... Since we will be in a LONG crisis prepare for the duration ! Here in NL "self-test-kits" are going fast in the shops...but we have the luxery of doing "a lot" via the internet... I think this forum may replace some social contacts... You know your needs....it may be time to sit down, imagine a sort of lockdown could last til 2023 or longer... Make a list of how you think to deal with that... I find comfort in knowing that I do not know that much...if leaves room for some hope on cures, some "super-vaccine"... During the 1940-44/45 German occupation many people had to go into hiding...there is lots of info on how they managed to deal with that.... For me also other parts of history may help...If you think CoViD is bad what about the 14th century plague...with NO info... Also lots of music, books, pets can help.... "It should not be this way" may be true-and it is okay to allow yourself to get very angry...but accept what you can not change if you can not change what you find that hard to accept... We may not survive this...death is part of life...I "believe" that when I die I "return" to where "I " was before "I " was born...We can not know it all ! ------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Posted By: ME163
Date Posted: November 27 2021 at 6:23am
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Ok, So this looks bad. So we will go into lockdown mode. We all got our shots Flu, Booster etc etc. Called Baylor and Dr. Pete, We did go to the Monkees show on the 11th. It was our birthday present to ourselves. We got the isolation rooms ready. Jill and Becky. Thanks for the great advice. |
Posted By: BeachMama
Date Posted: November 27 2021 at 12:10pm
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We’re supposed to go see my husband’s family in Alabama for Christmas. We’ve been planning this trip for over a year. We’re concerned about the new variant, but my husband REALLY does not want to cancel our trip — and I cannot blame him, this will be our first Christmas with his folks in almost 20 years. His sister’s family is unvaccinated, and our whole family is vaccinated. We’re supposed to stay with her while we’re there for two weeks. I’m trying to figure out how to make this trip safer for us and his parents. I told him maybe getting an Air B & B would help instead of staying with his sister, but we’ll be over there a lot anyway. It’s a total conundrum. I’m just hoping we’ll have more info about Omicron, its vaccine resistance, and its morbidity and mortality by December 19 when we’re supposed to leave. Y’all stay safe out there — and pad your preps! |
Posted By: ME163
Date Posted: November 27 2021 at 6:20pm
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I know it is a big issue, but you must stick to your guns. Unvaccinated people are the devil. Like Mama in the waterboy, Football is the devil . I want to tell you to be strong and tell your hubby that these people are the devil . |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: November 27 2021 at 8:27pm
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You actually made me laugh out loud and spill my tea!!! ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: ME163
Date Posted: November 27 2021 at 8:43pm
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Kiwi, I am glad you enjoyed the post. But it does have a serious point. If mama feels that her family is threatend by covid then she should not go and her family should not also. Trying to inject a bit of southern humor into the serious issue. |
Posted By: CRS, DrPH
Date Posted: November 27 2021 at 10:01pm
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I'm afraid I have to agree, BM. One of my very best friends admitted that he did not get vaccinated, and just barely survived COVID-19. There is no middle ground with this virus. We are suffering such massive losses because folks are taking short-cuts, being lazy, going the easy route etc. ------------- CRS, DrPH |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: November 28 2021 at 12:46pm
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I couldn't agree with you more ME163. I've said from the start that people should do whatever makes them feel safe and comfortable. I'm amazed at news reports of people discarding their masks just because an "expert" says they no longer need to wear them. Mama needs to do whatever she feels is best. I certainly would always put the wellbeing of my family over the risk of offending someone by my actions. When my children were young, I always volunteered to be a driver on school trips because I knew one of the women who always volunteered was dosed up to her eyeballs on medication and was out of it on the best of days, so I always volunteered and I made sure that my children were in my car. Obviously I never told her why I was doing that. Maybe Mama could suggest an AirBNB to "take make life easier" for the family who've offered to host them. Personally I try never to stay with relatives because once you're there, there's no getting away from them. At least if you're staying down the road you can wander back to your place for a bit of down time. Or she could come straight out and say she's not comfortable about it and that this would be an acceptable compromise. ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |
Posted By: WitchMisspelled
Date Posted: November 28 2021 at 4:25pm
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That is a conundrum, BeachMama. But, according to the data (assuming Omicron is not yet prevalent in the next 30 days), your in-laws are at greater risk for serious illness than you are. That being said, you mention your husband's parents are going too. They are at risk. Perhaps the decision should be theirs? There was a wedding in my extended family this last weekend. Many family members declined because the bride, groom and their families were hit and miss in terms of being vaccinated. There were very young children at risk so I hope they understood. But not likely. I expect to start hearing gossip about bad feelings any day now. Not much prompting is needed. As I've said, my extended family runs the gamut of right wing Trump supporters to dyed in the wool progressives. Those of us who are moderates have learned to duck, cover, nod our heads and make sympathetic noises. The Air B&B is a great idea, if only to keep some sanity. My SIL rented one for Thanksgiving weekend when we were all invited to see my niece's new home. It was nice to be able to break from festivities for quiet and rest. I wasn't too worried about going because we are all vaccinated in my family. |
Posted By: WitchMisspelled
Date Posted: November 28 2021 at 4:29pm
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Good advice, Chuck. I think what concerns me more about Omicron is not that it is more deadly, but that it can circumvent vaccine more easily. Considering There have been quite a few reports of infections among the vaccinated, I have a hard time sluffing it off as breakthrough infection. I expect we'll know more just in time for Christmas. I have opted out of travelling down to South Carolina to visit my sister and her family more because of the nightmare travel than Covid. But now I'm rather glad I opted out earlier this month, even before we knew anything about Omicron. |