Note from a statistician
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Forum Name: General Discussion
Forum Description: (General discussion regarding the next pandemic)
URL: http://www.avianflutalk.com/forum_posts.asp?TID=44596
Printed Date: April 23 2024 at 12:34am
Topic: Note from a statistician
Posted By: Tabitha111
Subject: Note from a statistician
Date Posted: January 03 2022 at 6:27am
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Sharing Steven Millman's latest projections. He’s a very good statistician.  https://www.facebook.com/steven.millman/posts/10158316897591821?__cft__[0]=AZWjsjyeTBt-7QpdlSCVOsIc1uOiT2rZCcc0G6IhuxCuvQ72B9BXWLsi4BJnF_Ms3mCeIcmdjQ_HxDlQAR3AbKQwbifS4DXJ-urzxjp9BDOQjCe0MKhiIcBLfQP9Hb_iCOrieJr6-beMI9W1fN-LYBRpeTNmZlSg3vqmfKFX6DOHwKqd1TAa5ofkXjU5WReqhNNHUeuUnE3yS72HjjqbAVK1&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-y-R" style="color: inherit; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none; outline: none; list-style: none; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-color: initial; padding: 0px; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; touch-action: manipulation; background-color: transparent; text-align: inherit; display: inline; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; animation-name: none !important; transition-property: none !important; font-family: inherit;" tabindex="0 - · BRIEF COVID Update January 2nd - Omicron & Happy F'ing New Year I'm getting a lot of requests for an update which I haven't done for some time and which I frankly dread doing. I haven't had time to write up a proper one, but the short version is that my models are aligning around the Omicron peak landing between the 20th & 25th of January which is about a week later than most circulating estimates. Infection rates could potentially peak higher than a staggering 500,000 cases per day (weekly average) which would be DOUBLE the previous record set about a year ago. The range of the model is 430,000-570,000. Deaths should start to rise noticeably within the next few days. Although the case fatality rate should be substantially lower for a variety of reasons. Look for the number of death per day (weekly average) to peak around February 15th. The model with the most friendly assumptions lands around 3,000-4,000 dead per day (weekly average) and the least friendly between 5,000-6,000 dead per day (weekly average). I'll be able to narrow that range in the next week or so as more data become available. For reference, the previous peak was about 3,400 dead per day (weekly average) in January 2021. Deaths, as you might expect. will be almost entirely among the unvaccinated, so these numbers can be reduced dramatically by getting the holdouts to get themselves vaccinated. No, I don't have much hope that they'll do so, but that's what would be necessary to avoid this outcome. Let's also not forget that we've been above an average of 1,000 dead per day in the United States (more or less) for the last 130 days (mid-August, 2021). If I can find the time and the intestinal fortitude to do a full write up with projections, I will do so soon. For now, feel free to ask questions in the comments below. As always, I'm not a doctor. I'm a professional statistician who's sad to still be doing this. ------------- 'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.' --Confucius |
Replies:
Posted By: Dutch Josh
Date Posted: January 03 2022 at 6:39am
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------------- We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. ~Albert Einstein |
Posted By: Littlesmile
Date Posted: January 03 2022 at 6:40am
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Thanks for this! So the peak is estimated for the 20th/25th January.. Wonder if that would be similar to here? Or even UK? ------------- :-) |
Posted By: Hazelpad
Date Posted: January 03 2022 at 11:04am
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Hi Littlesmile, Just across water from you...its gone nuts here. They are suggesting end of Jan here in Scotlandbut half the time they are guessing. Schools going back on Wednesday ....here we go again. Mum I have a scratchy throat......., mum why does my head ache when I move my eyes. Mum 28 people in my class are off today does that matter.....mum there are no teachers today we watched films all day...... Hz x |
Posted By: Littlesmile
Date Posted: January 03 2022 at 11:55am
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Thank you Hazelpad! 😊 That's what I assumed too but had wondered if we were different stages... Our schools are back this week too. Its hard to imagine how things will go now. Or how things can get any worse... I know of many parents not willing to send kids in to school and I know of a few schools claiming 'heating' problems. Also due to lack of staff pupils have no transport to school... So over all its a really good (or poor) start lol. ------------- :-) |
Posted By: roni3470
Date Posted: January 03 2022 at 1:57pm
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We are facing the same thing in Littleton, Colorado. Not enough bus drivers, kitchen staff, and expecting shortages of teachers. Meanwhile, our county is mask optional even in schools. Its the only county in Colorado like that and its just so infuriating! I can't imagine what its going to be like in 1-2 weeks here. ------------- NOW is the Season to Know that Everything you Do is Sacred |
Posted By: KiwiMum
Date Posted: January 03 2022 at 3:44pm
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What a complete nightmare for the schools. How do you manage social distancing when understaffed? It will inevitable that classes will have to be combined so that one teacher can look after 60 instead of 30, and so the children will be in closer proximity to each other than previously and so it goes on. I think it's a great idea for a school to suddenly develop "problems" that means it has to stay closed. Personally, if I were a school principal, I'd be out there with a shovel helping the sewage main to rupture accidentally, and preferably inside a building so it takes months to put right...... ------------- Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts. |