Proper Risk Communication

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   Lanard and Sandman with an excellent article on Covid-19 risk communication, and what a lousy job WHO and western .govs have been doing.

"We are near-certain that the desperate-sounding last-ditch containment messaging of recent days is contributing to a massive global misperception about the near-term future.  The theme of WHO’s and many governments’ messages – that the “window of opportunity” to stop spread of the virus is closing – is like the famous cover page of Nevil Shute’s On the Beach: “There is still time … Brother.”

For weeks we have been trying to get officials to talk early about the main goal of containment: to slow the spread of the virus, not to stop it.  And to explain that containment efforts would eventually end.  And to help people learn about “after containment.”  This risk communication has not happened yet in most places."

Link: https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

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Thorne! Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: February 07 2020 Status: Offline Points: 2695	Post Options Post Reply Quote Thorne! Report Post Thanks(1) Quote Reply Topic: Proper Risk Communication Posted: February 22 2020 at 9:22pm
	Lanard and Sandman with an excellent article on Covid-19 risk communication, and what a lousy job WHO and western .govs have been doing. "We are near-certain that the desperate-sounding last-ditch containment messaging of recent days is contributing to a massive global misperception about the near-term future. The theme of WHO’s and many governments’ messages – that the “window of opportunity” to stop spread of the virus is closing – is like the famous cover page of Nevil Shute’s On the Beach: “There is still time … Brother.” For weeks we have been trying to get officials to talk early about the main goal of containment: to slow the spread of the virus, not to stop it. And to explain that containment efforts would eventually end. And to help people learn about “after containment.” This risk communication has not happened yet in most places." Link: https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

FluMom Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695	Post Options Post Reply Quote FluMom Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 22 2020 at 9:56pm
	Great find Thorne! The bottom line Every single official we know is having multiple “Oh my God” moments, as new COVID-19 developments occur and new findings emerge. OMG – there is a fair amount of transmission by infected people with mild or subclinical cases! OMG – there is a high viral load early on in nasal and pharyngeal samples! OMG – the Diamond Princess, how can that have been allowed to happen! And on and on. Officials help each other through those moments. They go home and tell their families and friends, sharing the OMG sensation. And then what do they tell the public? That they understand that “people are concerned” (as if they themselves weren’t alarmed), but “the risk is low and there’s nothing you need to do now.” Ian, it sounds like you want to argue on behalf of preparedness. Encouraging all stakeholders to prepare logistically should start now, if not sooner. And you are in a position not just to encourage logistical preparedness, but also to encourage government sources and other experts like yourself to do the same. Perhaps even more important, in our judgment: You can try to encourage emotional preparedness, and try to encourage other official and expert sources to encourage emotional preparedness – guiding people’s OMG adjustment reactions instead of trying to stamp them out.

BabyCat Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: January 26 2020 Status: Offline Points: 15175	Post Options Post Reply Quote BabyCat Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 22 2020 at 10:25pm
	Yes, an excellent article and well worth a read. It should be required reading for all state and local health department chiefs

Flubergasted Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: February 04 2020 Location: USA Status: Offline Points: 2130	Post Options Post Reply Quote Flubergasted Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 23 2020 at 6:24am
	The pandemic is coming, whether public health authorities make it official or not. If they don't start doing a better job of communicating, I predict that people will lose confidence in what were once highly respected institutions that we counted on to be the truth tellers. An unassailable reputation takes a long time to build, but rebuilding after losing credibility?

Tabitha111 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640	Post Options Post Reply Quote Tabitha111 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 23 2020 at 9:08am
	My take on reading many Facebook comments on news articles about Sars-2 is the majority of comments are "why all the media hype?" That's where many folks heads are at here in the US at the moment..."the news media is hyping this all up for ratings" I read the news articles and they are far from hype to me, just reporting numbers and no opinions...but on EVERY single news story, the same comments. This correlates to folks that are being ridiculed for preparing. I told the story on here about the local moms group attacking a mom who was genuinely concerned about this virus...the vitriol was off the charts. She contacted me privately and I steered her here. Hopefully she found us. So, seeing all of this, I don't believe the majority of people in the US will actually take any of this seriously. I don't see it happening at all. Its interesting to watch this play out.

Technophobe Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Assistant Admin Joined: January 16 2014 Location: Scotland Status: Offline Points: 88450	Post Options Post Reply Quote Technophobe Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 23 2020 at 9:16am
	Slow-motion-train-wreck!
	How do you tell if a politician is lying? His lips or pen are moving.

FluMom Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Adviser Group Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: February 03 2020 Location: Colorado Status: Offline Points: 14695	Post Options Post Reply Quote FluMom Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:10am
	I can tell you people will ignore Covid19 until people start dying...then they will panic because the CDC puts on FB wash your hands. REALLY! They need to tell people to prepare to have at least 2 weeks of food and water in their houses. But let's not start a panic! Like Techno says, "Train Wreck"!

KiminNM Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: January 22 2020 Location: NM Status: Offline Points: 6605	Post Options Post Reply Quote KiminNM Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: February 23 2020 at 10:30am
	Thanks for sharing, this IS an excellent article. Wish me luck - about to share it on Facebook, and emailed it to my dad. This should be intersting. lol I have one friend I know will read it (we've already chatted about preparedness), we'll see if any others do. Sadly - the one who has shrugged it off as 'no big deal' the most is a nurse. Slow motion train wreck is right!