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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Resolved cases

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Resolved cases
    Posted: March 22 2020 at 7:54am

The BBC posted the following chart


If one takes only the "Resolved" cases then the Case Fatality Rate is 13% [13 000 out of 105 000 cases].

Some serious figures that have seem estimate that the actual Infection Fatality Rate is about 1.2%.  

Putting the two together this indicates to me that, world-wide, only about 10% of the cases are actually being recorded.  To my mind that seems reasonabe given what we have seen of many countries unable to do proper testing in the early stages of this epidemic.


Note: according to WHO "Cases" only count lab confirmed illnesses, while "Infections" estimate the total number of those who are ill.

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ozarkcountryboy View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ozarkcountryboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 8:17am

We have 10 people in the hospital. Would that mean a 1000 people have the virus and don't know it?

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Technophobe View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 8:36am

As a ball-park figure, probably yes.

But that will double in 3 - 5 days.  It might take a little longer if people manage some social distancing.

When you SIP you protect everyone, not just the family.

Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Turboguy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 8:51am

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

As a ball-park figure, probably yes.

But that will double in 3 - 5 days.  It might take a little longer if people manage some social distancing.

When you SIP you protect everyone, not just the family.

What? Sit in place? You're taking away my right to go out and spread as much of this to as many as I possibly can!

This shall not stand. 

Liberals claim to want to give a hearing to other views, but then are shocked and offended to discover that there are other views. - William F. Buckley
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Penham View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Penham Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 10:34am

My daughter lives in Washington and she said they are no longer testing there because there are no tests available. So I guess that's why they are no longer the "hot spot".

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AI View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 11:44am

Originally posted by Penham Penham wrote:

My daughter lives in Washington and she said they are no longer testing there because there are no tests available. So I guess that's why they are no longer the "hot spot".

Well the Washington Dept of health web site continues to update the confirmed and negative testing results in the State of Washington daily so some testing is being done. It may be that they are only testing those for whom a confirmation of positive would dictate course of treatment.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pandemic Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 22 2020 at 12:03pm

We also need to consider if the number of deaths is being recorded correctly. One health worker suggested that so many people have died that they didn't record the numbers !!!!!.

Location - Rural location in Hampshire, England
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