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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Now tracking the Wuhan Coronavirus COVID-19

RO of 2.6

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    Posted: January 25 2020 at 11:57am
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing


UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread:


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11:07 AM - Jan 25, 2020
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This was from FB post the Dr Eric Ding was a scientist taught at Harvard for 15 years.   I think this is not good news. Anyone else confirm this report?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 12:28pm
5 minutes ago I read it was 3.8
Either way that's a scary number.
If it is to be, it is up to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 12:40pm
They are both guesses. Over 1 is all we can say for certain.

For what it's worth, my guess is nearer 3.8, possibly higher.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 25 2020 at 1:09pm
When the only available stats are doctored, any estimate is going to be nothing more than a guess at this point. As Techno said, the R0 more than one because it’s clearly spreading and expanding.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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