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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: scenario's
    Posted: January 28 2020 at 4:03am
DJ-The number of corona-virus-infections seem to go exponential the last few days.

-In the best scenario the virus will develop away from humans. Even then this outbreak will be (much) worse than the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome outbreak.
At the very best the number of deaths will stay under the 2-3000-most of them in China.

Already this outbreak is effecting global trade, will increase the risk of a global economic depression.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/virus-update-for-u-s-a-worst-public-health-disaster-in-100-years

The worst case scenarios would bring is near the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_fluscenario-or worse.

One of the many steps to influence the outcome is how to deal with international travel. Finally most countries admit that going to China now is not such a good idea. This is late-it would have been wiser if such a decision was made at least a few days earlier.

A major difference from the Spanish Flu (1918-1923) is the speed of transport. The new corona-virus will lift with planes, high speed trains etc. The rate of spread of this virus will be much faster than the Spanish Flu.

This means countries face a major health crisis "peak" much sooner. The health care system in most countries will not be able to deal with such a peak.

(The medical care-costs now are much higher than in 1918. Medical care now is high tech-so to be cost-effective one makes an estimate of demand-of-care. There is some room to move-but not much-since extra capacity will cost a lot.)

Since also a lot of spread of the virus is done by people who are not ill (yet) themselves the virus is "under the radar" most of the time while spreading.

Also at least 2% of the corona-virus-infected do not show fever-but do spread the virus.

So one could make a simple calculation-with almost all data needed at best to be speculation.

-A "stealth" virus spreading with the patient not being ill yet.
-Spread via plane, (high speed) train etc
-During the Chinese New Year
-When people with Chinese background travel all over the world
-no cure/treatment
-hospitals unable to deal with almost all of the cases
-Governments not willing to stop (international) travel
-People unwilling and unable to see how dangerous this crisis is (and so not willing to accept needed restrictions)

The outcome of such a worse case scenario an intelligent person can make up for him/her-self.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR0cArQPB0RTAH9Bw_SQlWEvjcrWIIExMzteMSMqJjoP51jKe4Jx7vujKEE discussing healthcare in China-from no soap in hospital bathrooms to local governments organizing parties to claim everything is "under control" near outbreak epi-centers. (Reminds me of US organizing military parades as propaganda for selling war-bonds in the early stages of the Spanish Flu outbreak)

From Hal Turner;

We are now in Late January and China has more than fifty-six MILLION people under Quarantine. An Infection rate of 83% has been conclusively established by a formal medical study published in "The Lancet" medical journal. That means for every 100 people EXPOSED to this new virus, 83 of them will get sick from it.

That same medical study shows the incubation period to be as short as FOUR days, but as long as FOURTEEN Days before a person shows symptoms.

That study also shows the disease becomes contagious DURING the incubation period, meaning the 83 people infected can spread the illness to others BEFORE THEY SHOW SYMPTOMS.   People are walking around, doing the things they normally do, with no idea they're sick and already infecting others.

Once symptoms begin, they include fever in 98% of infected persons, cough in 76% of infected persons, and other symptoms.   But it is the 98% with fever that is most disturbing, because that means TWO PERCENT HAVE NO FEVER.

At present, authorities checking people for the spread of the disease are only looking for fever and respiratory troubles.   Yet two percent of infected do not get fevers.

What that means is that for every 50 people infected, ONE who is infected and contagious, WILL GET THROUGH SCREENING and continue to spread the illness.

Worse, the coronavirus can live on surfaces; for as few as five days, and as long as 28 days.   So people who are sick, and who touch store counters, products on store shelves, DOOR HANDLES in public places, or who use public bathrooms, leave the virus on all those things, and the virus lives to infect others for 5 to 28 days.

Further, packages you receive via the Post Office, FedEx, UPS, Amazon or other companies, CAN HAVE VIRUS ON THEM if an infected person handled them, coughed or sneezed on them. The package arrives, you open it and now have the virus on your hands. If you touch your face, mouth or nose . . . or pick up a sandwich and eat it after touching it with your hands, POW, you're infected.

As such, the infectious disease specialist with whom I spoke today, told me "there is no way to stop the spread of this."
-
In the example above, out of 100 people EXPOSED, 83 will get sick.

Alright... math time...based on current numbers

83% infection rate according to a medical journal

3.5% death rate for those infected (CDC)

15% percent death rate for those in serious condition receiving hospital care

making 23.3% or more percent of the infected likely to end up in the hospital.

23.3 percent of 83% of a population is....

20% or more of any given population that will need to be in the hospital

There are only 7 hospital beds per 1000 people in any given area in your average halfway decent country

That's 0.7 hospital beds per 100 people

BUT 20 out of 100 people in need of intensive care

however, hopefully they wont all get it at the same time
otherwise..

..only 1 in 29 people in serious condition will receive proper medical care

And the less medical care they get, the higher the death rate climbs. Those without supportive medical care have a death rate of 65%

Finally, and this is the worst thing I have ever had to report, in Linear Projections, "Time 2" is best predicted by "Time 1"

We are in Late January and China, which is about 1 month into its outbreak, has 56 Million people in 19 cities under Quarantine.

China (Time 1) is about 1 month ahead of the USA (Time 2) in its situation.

So one month from now in the USA (Time 2), we can expect similar or worse situation in the USA than China (Time 1) has right now.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak#Estimates;

Estimates
Based on cases reported and assuming a 10-day delay between infection and detection, researchers at Northeastern University and Imperial College London estimated that the number of actual infections may be 10 times higher than those confirmed at the time of reporting. Imperial College estimated 4,000 cases with 440 confirmed by 21 January 2020, Northeastern University estimated 21,300 infections by 26 January, increasing to 26,200 infections by 27 January (with a confidence of 95% within the interval 19,200-34,800).[122][123][124]

DJ-Out of control means out of control !!!!!
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 6:05am
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak exponential trend for China;

cases;

16 jan= 45,
17 " = 62,
18 " = 121,
19 " = 198,
20 " = 291,
21 " = 440,
22 " = 571,
23 " = 830,
24 " =1287,
25 " =1975,
26 " =2744,
27 " =4515.
------------
28 will be +50/60% of 4515 say +2250=6765 (jan 28-6.00 CET=6049 worldwide, 132 deaths)
29 "                  6765 " +3400=10.165
30 then 15.000
31 " 22.500
feb1- 33.750
2=50.000
3=75.000
4=102.500

Travelrestrictions, avoiding mass gatherings can make a major difference.
Checking of transported goods for the virus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010s_Haiti_cholera_outbreak
today it is widely believed to be the result of contamination by infected United Nations peacekeepers deployed from Nepal.[11] In terms of total infections, the outbreak has since been surpassed by the war-fueled 2016–17 Yemen cholera outbreak, although the Haiti outbreak is still the most deadly modern outbreak.[12]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-curbs-travel-hong-kong-sends-6000-medics-hubei-death-toll-soars

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-what-if-we-are-brink-exponential-increase-coronavirus-cases

DJ-International cooperation is needed badly ! Plans to limit extra collateral damage should be activated.
You need healthy people working on nuclear plants, weapon depots, food/water-distribution, dams etc.

Waiting to long to go to an "international state of emergency" will create more damage (and panic). https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019 will be running behind China that is running behind the facts.

https://thebulletin.org/2020/01/outbreaks-of-lethal-diseases-like-ebola-and-the-wuhan-coronavirus-happen-regularly-the-us-government-just-cut-funding-for-the-hospitals-that-deal-with-them/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=MondayNewsletter01272020&utm_content=DisruptiveTechnology_Coronavirus_01222020

DJ-You can not fight this outbreak without proper funding. Loking at how "the world" deals with climate change one may give up all hope....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Emswally Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 7:24am
Well. It’s a good thing the CDC is screening US airports now. Sarcasm. The talking heads narrative.
They’re way behind the power curve.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 7:27am
Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

DJ-You can not fight this outbreak without proper funding. Loking at how "the world" deals with climate change one may give up all hope....
I don't know, DJ. This virus could solve the overpopulation problem. If we cull overpopulated elephants, perhaps nature/God does the same.
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ozarkcountryboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 7:36am
I'm sure that is why it was leaked from the government lab located in Wuhun!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 1:21pm
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/mathematical-model-of-coronavirus-outbreak-all-travel-must-stop-or-death-toll-will-be-cataclysmic

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate. These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate. These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-curbs-travel-hong-kong-sends-6000-medics-hubei-death-toll-soars;
Germany Confirms 3 More Coronavirus Cases; Human-To-Human Transmission Suspected

more updates
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2020 at 10:30pm
A comment from/on https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/mathematical-model-of-coronavirus-outbreak-all-travel-must-stop-or-death-toll-will-be-cataclysmic

So, I read that article and did some more digging on the origin as well as the transmission of coronavirus. There are a lot of unknowns overall with the virus, but here's what I know for a fact. The part about the virus that will make it REALLY scary is the incubation period. 2-14 days is a long time to be contagious without symptoms before the patient is able to be quarantined.

Here is the scary takeaway on a "worst case scenario." Simple math can tell you how quickly the virus spread from an initial 11 cases on January 1, to 4500 cases in China this morning.

Exponential growth here means if uncontained through human intervention, the virus could in a worst case scenario reach 1,840,091 people by the end of February, 752,597,219 people by the end of March, and the entire planet a week or so into March. It's worth noting that air travel makes the spread possible but also limits the speed in which the spread will occur because it takes time for infected individuals to reach areas over seas. With added efforts to screen people at the airport may slow the introduction, but again the incubation period makes this a crapshoot.

I believe that this worst case scenario is highly unlikely in developed countries like the USA, Canada, France, etc. But countries that fail to care for their people developed or not will be at high risk of the virus running rampant through the country. I.e. if it hit African countries... that would be bad.

Vaccine development is in the earliest stages. But with three major developers working on a vaccine, its likely to reduce the time it takes. However, the actual development of a vaccine that is effective is the quick part. Clinical trials takes time, and researchers will know absolutely nothing about the long term effects of the vaccine when it has to be administered.

DJ-Rich countries have a healthcare system wich is high tech but limited in dealing with massive influx. H2H-exponential influx will become problematic within days when you have to deal with severe cases. Also panic, people believing they are infected (but are not) false info (on the "real" number of cases) will create major problems.

Articles like https://www.zerohedge.com/health/economics-pandemics-and-quarantines are not helping. (Basic-people are more likely to break strict rules-so no strict rules-stupidity).

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-curbs-travel-hong-kong-sends-6000-medics-hubei-death-toll-soars shows more realism.

quote;
That brings the toll to 6,049, including 263 cases deemed "severe." The death toll has climbed to 132, according to SCMP.

Those who have been closely comparing this outbreak with the 2003 SARS outbreak may notice that the coronavirus has achieved an important milestone. Barely a week into global response to the outbreak, the number of confirmed cases has already passed the number of SARS cases reported during the entire monthslong ordeal.

Sars infected 5,327 people in mainland China in nine months and killed 349 people, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).
-
Another 60k people are said to be under observation across China, with 20k in Hubei alone.

Zhong Nanshan, a respiratory diseases expert who spoke with the SCMP on Tuesday, the outbreak hasn't yet reached its peak, though he thinks the number of new cases will plateau within the next ten days.

DJ 60.000 "under observation" with limited capacity for testing (yesterday that group was just 20.000) shows how difficult it is to make even a basic scenario.

On the HT comment-by the end of march is a long way. It is good "demand for flights to China" is gone. But the bad news is the political inaction around the globe.

(The Dutch government is making an inventory on the number of masks etc).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 6:48am
Good video's https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MN9-UXsvPBY

Coronavirus outbreak update by pulmonologist Dr. Seheult of https://www.medcram.com
This video illustrates the current confirmed novel coronavirus cases outside of China and coronavirus mortality rate (vs. SARS and Influenza). A brief discussion of the Huoshenshan Hospital in Wuhan that is scheduled to be constructed in only 10 days.

DJ-The number of flu-deaths in California-at this moment-is higher than the number of China corona-virus deaths.

link to CTGN-live link at Wuhan hospital construction;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypti_cB0JTc

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-airways-ends-all-flights-china-virus-spreads-middle-east
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2020 at 9:48pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/british-airways-ends-all-flights-china-virus-spreads-middle-east;

Reporters Claim To Have Proof China Lying About Virus Death Toll As Total Cases Near 8,000; Another 12,000 Suspected

Summary:

Death toll climbs to 170 from 132, with 7,771 cases confirmed in China and 7,811 total, while the number of suspected cases has soared by 2,928 to 12,167 from 9,239 yesterday
Reporter claims local media has evidence Beijing lying about death toll
British Airways cancels flights to China
Trump says he spoke with Xi over the phone
Angry mobs spotted in Sichuan
CDC sending representatives to China
3 Japanese aboard evac flight test positive for coronavirus
* * *

Update (1850ET):

China's NHC just released another up . China now admits to 7,771 cases across the country, Adding nearly 1,800 from 5,974 yesterday. The death toll has climbed to 170, and 170 patients have been cured. Some 31 cases were labeled "severe" and nearly 82,000 are under observation. What is perhaps most shocking is that the number of suspected cases soared by nearly 3,000 overnight from 9,239 to 12,167.

In another major development, state media reports that the first case of coronavirus has been confirmed in Tibet. It was the only region in China with zero confirmed cases, though that streak is now over.

In a disturbing development, three of the Japanese citizens rescued from Wuhan aboard Japan's evac flight Wednesday have tested positive for cornavirus - so now the Japanese government is essentially importing the virus on the evacuation flight. We hope all those on the flight will be quarantined for a while given the virus's reputation of spreading asymptomatically.

Here's a breakdown of all the revisions...

Confirmed cases +29% (from 5974 to 7711)
Suspected cases +32% (from: 9239 to 12167)
Severe cases +10% (from 1239 to 1370)
Death toll +29% (from 232 to 170
-
Update (1650ET): Several epidemiologists have suggested that many of the deaths caused by the coronavirus that surfaced in Wuhan last month have probably 'slipped through the cracks' - either having been misdiagnosed or deliberately attributed to something else. Many suspect that Beijing is concealing the true extent of the outbreak. And now, one reporter claims that a Chinese media organization has found proof.

The East Asia Correspondent for DW cited reports in a tweet claiming that health officials have been secretly moving some bodies directly from the hospital to the crematorium.
-
Meanwhile, research published in the Lancet, a medical journal, claimed the true mortality rate is closer to 11% (the official rate is 2%-3%).

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-frantically-shuts-down-stock-market-to-prevent-coronavirus-selloff

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-collapsing-into-chaos-and-violence-as-virus-spreads

DJ-Reports of civil unrest, people attacking houses with infected people inside etc. When a society collapses (SHTF) the first problems will be for food, water, safety.

The longer, wider the collapse the greater the risk for major accidents-power plants, dams, not dealing with floods, earthquakes, storms etc.

There is a lot of discussion on how deadly the new corona-virus is. If this virus often only would cause a cold-still spreading the virus-most likely that would be good news. But you need good data to find out.

From the ZH-headlines; Beijing just announced another slew of deaths and confirmed infections...while nearly 90,000 Chinese are under "observation."

The number of cases are tsunami-like-impossible to deal with-for any country. Maybe China is not willing to give all the needed info-even if they were willing most likely they are unable to do so.

One global effect is masks running out. Another is slow down of global economy. A lot of airlines will see a sharp decrease in passengers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bLsoDLO484 BPEarthWatch with the Bianco Research model-giving 100.000.000 cases by feb.19. https://twitter.com/abuforlife1/status/1222669841720496128
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 6:30am
From https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yq3Y9rmlEQE&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR15QjEgU324hYTGEotwXgrz_OC5jxTunzRR-WTANUr5B_YRQQ7VrgKh0lw;

Case fatality rate (CFR);
Flu=0.1%
nCov=3% or higher

RO (spread)
Flu=1.28
nCov=2.5/3.5

serious complication/ICU (with the US having 100.000 ICU-beds-most in use)
Flu=<1%
nCov=20%

end of february 115.000.000 cases 23 milion serious ICU

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/6000-quarantined-italian-cruise-ship-due-virus-scare-russia-closes-border-china

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/thai-government-admits-unable-stop-spread-coronavirus

With a further record growth of refugees, climate escalation http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/01/could-humans-go-extinct-within-years.html, http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/01/norovirus-update-simulation-it-could.html

DJ-The further in this pandemic the more chaos and economic "problems". China economy slowing down-moving into recession. But http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/01/more-than-months-rain-falls-in-24-hours.html other countries will see a mix of other problems with this corona-virus outbreak.

Chinese tourists, students were around the globe around christmas/western new year. North Korea has a lot of workers in China. (And no cases ???)

A mix of corona and other problems in India, Bangla Desh, Africa can make this corona outbreak far worse than it already is. Medical care in a lot of developing countries is hardly there or overstretched. So we know of serious problems there when it shows up from there in Europe, US, Russia.

A real scenario is more than increasing numbers with a certain percentage each day. When does EU/US medical care collapse ? What are the economic consequences (airliners/aircraft industry close to collapse in one month ? Money going up in medical emergency means no money for infrastructure etc. China will see its exports crumble.)

We are only at the beginning of a major global crisis (even if the WHO fails to recognize it).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 30 2020 at 10:00pm
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w good info-also on "embedded media" panicking to avoid a panic...Also on the rate of spread R1 or R2,5 make a lot of difference ! Also WHO goes for economy above health (DJ-Short term above even medium term !)

Ncoc and men https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Atg6wrn6ctI
(Early indications 70% of cases men, most 68% had NO underlying illness)

Italy 4 (or 2 ?-several numbers) cases-Ro 2,5-4=infect 10 to 16 others. Those 10 to 16 are now infecting others....Cfr 10% ?

Weather influences-does cold slow down corovirus ? On the pictures from Wuhan/China no or little snow-during winter ? Is it not supposed to be cold and white there in this time of year ?

End of 2020
10% of global population dead due to ncov ?
5%             "          "          other illnesses/accidents
(A lot of people can die of flu-but a lot of hospitalworkers may get infected since ptotection is running out.)
10% of global population with long term healthproblems due to ncov/flu (COPD, braindamage etc)
Is this optimistic, realistic ?

The Spanish Flu may have killed between 2 to 5% of the global population between 1918 and 1923. Spread now is much faster.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 31 2020 at 10:09pm
DJ-As expected the official numbers still go up-but seem to show a slow down of rise. That is mostly caused by a lack of tests-still the embedded media will claim otherwise. With medical workers now running out of masks, protective clothing-it is likely we will see a rise of infected medical workers you need to fight the outbreak.

This will make the Case Fatality Ratio go up-less treatment means more die.

https://www.rt.com/news/479108-first-cononavirus-patient-cured/,

https://www.rt.com/news/479211-china-virus-grown-stronger/

https://www.rt.com/russia/479293-coronavirus-epidemic-possible-march-russia/

https://www.rt.com/russia/479581-russia-health-ministry-coronavirus-vaccine/

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/479600-chinas-coronavirus-survive-wuhan/

DJ-It looks like some forms of treatment are succesfull. This can-when medication is available on a large scale-bring down the epidemic/pandemic.

https://www.rt.com/news/479641-india-patient-coronavirus-hospital/
DJ-Refusing treatment to a Chinese man-fresh from China with health issues-TWICE may illustrate a risk of the corona-virus getting more problematic in South Asia (India, Thailand, Viet Nam).

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon
(DJ-If indeed this virus is man-made-and China did not make it (they will know if they were working on it) (or for propagandareasons) who did make it ? Did the US want to stop the rise of China by a bio-weapon ?)

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 nCov-map

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pepe-escobar-chinas-virus-response-has-been-breathtaking;

For almost five years now a maximum-security biolab has been operating in Wuhan dedicated to the study of highly pathogenic micro-organisms – set up in partnership with France after the SARS epidemic. In 2017, Nature magazine was warning about the risks of dispersion of pathogenic agents out of this lab. Yet there’s no evidence this might have happened.

DJ-In China a lot of people work up to 20hrs a day to get a grip on this outbreak-often facing risk of infection. The TWO hospitals build near Wuhan in days are meant to keep air/fluids (and the virus) in. https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-31/2-specialized-coronavirus-hospitals-in-Wuhan-put-to-use-on-Feb-3-and-6-NHZUwpE2Ws/index.html

China is giving dealing with this outbreak top-priority. (Although I-DJ-do not rule out secret cremating of bodies, false cause of death statistics etc.)

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1177737.shtml China updates
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 9:45am
[QUOTE=Dutch Josh]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-contains-hiv-insertions-stoking-fears-over-artificially-created-bioweapon
(DJ-If indeed this virus is man-made-and China did not make it (they will know if they were working on it) (or for propagandareasons) who did make it ? Did the US want to stop the rise of China by a bio-weapon ?)

I've been skimming this post but hadn't clicked on any of the links. Today though, this one showed up from another source, so I read it.

I would LOVE to hear from folks with science knowledge - because after reading it carefully - twice - it sounds credible to me. It's obviously not peer-reviewed yet, nothing coming out is.

I'd seen the pictures of how close the lab is in Wuhan to the market, but just shrugged it off.   

But reading this, and knowing they've been successfully treating cases with HIV drugs... with my limited knowledge it's hard not to think that maybe this was research in progress and an accidental release.   (Without a ready cure I don't in any way think this was released on purpose)

Can anyone weigh in?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 11:30am
Mother nature is perfectly capable of doing this without our help. Inserting novel bits of protein, RNA or DNA is a daily occurance for her. We call it genetic engineering, she calls it normal.

Having said that, if I were going to make a bioweapon, this ticks all of the boxes rather well - with big fat ticks!

If it were a weapon, unless it escaped by accident - which would be very, very unlikely, someone, somewhere would have a vaccine or treatment.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 12:28pm
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/proof-the-novel-coronavirus-infecting-the-world-is-a-military-bio-weapon-developed-by-china-s-army

DJ-Hal Turner sometimes has good info-I do not know what to think of the bio-weapon-story. That story seems to be at least a week old-linking the Wuhan bio-lab with this outbreak.

I think you are correct Techno, if it was a bio-weapon someone would have means to limit damage when it gets to close. I do not know much (a little bit of history, that is it) so if "nature" can include HIV-receptor binding parts in a corona-virus I do not know.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/bird-flu-back-china-faces-yet-another-viral-plague

https://www.thedailybeast.com/get-ready-for-more-coronavirus-nightmares-thanks-to-climate-change

DJ-Other factors may speed up "new"virusses/diseases. We did already have SARS, MERS, Zinka etc-co-infections (flu and corona) are also very likely (and dangerous).

WHO is warning that in countries with a not so strong healthcare system this nCov is a major risk.

(The good thing is that Russia is claiming to have some medication to deal with the virus. Russia and China are working very close to find-as fast as they can-a cure. But the "time is not on our side".
In theory-only I guess-the official number of nCov-deaths could stay under the 900 (SARS/MERS numbers) people dying.
Most likely in reality the number of nCov-deaths is in the thousends already.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 01 2020 at 10:43pm
Another update from Peak Prosperity https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8SQzIMAXnQ;

Late yesterday, the US officially declared coronavirus a "national health emergency".

So are starting to claim that it's "too late" to do anything to stop the spread of coronavirus.

Is it?

Well, even if it's too late to stop it, we may still be able to slow the spread substantially.

The latest numbers from China may be offering our first hope of that. At ~12,000, they are our first sign the virus may no longer be spreading at a geometric rate.

China's quarantine efforts may be starting to pay off. (Or, we may just be getting bad data. It's simply too early to tell) (DJ-There is a limit to the number of tests etc. so yes-bad data most likely)

Yes, it's important to prepare for coronavirus to arrive in your community. That's just prudent given what we know right now.

(DJ-Also on the Case Fatality Ratio-when a disease spreads out at Ro 4.08 and may take up to 5 days (as example) before there are people dying you have to compare the cases of 5 days earlier with the number of deaths today-to get some form of realism. When you compare the present number of known infected cases divided by the deaths caused by the virus your number of CFR will be much lower and very false.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCGD9dT12C0 tell me lies, sweet little lies-Fleetwood Mac

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/second-chinese-city-bars-residents-leaving-their-homes-hong-kong-workers-demand-city

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mayor-city-6-million-people-next-wuhan-warns-significant-increase-coronavirus-cases-weekend

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/global-supply-demand-shock-coronavirus

DJ-Since closing borders is announced in advance people get out of Wuhan or into the US before they can not do that any longer. So people that fled out of Wuhan will have brought the virus with them-expect the number of people getting sick going up in the cities were people from Wuhan fled to.

With that many factories, shops etc. being closed people get out of income. Another stressfactor...

Longer term scenario's

-After the Spanish Flu we had the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roaring_Twenties. In memory Spanish Flu stands in the shadows of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I

DJ-Since this nCov may get even bigger than the Spanish Flu

look at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death 14th century Europe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death#Economic;
With such a large population decline from the Plague, wages soared in response to a labor shortage.[74] Landowners were also pushed to substitute monetary rents for labour services in an effort to keep tenants.[75]

After the plague(s) there was a time of recovery, wealth even, for those who survived. At the end new rulers started a new power struggle to set new borders.

If-and only if !!!!-this nCov gets a global major problem the damage can remain limited by good government. Try to avoid nuclear plants breaking down https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/japan-set-release-12-million-tons-radioactive-fukushima-water-ocean-causing-immeasurable.

Try to limit public panic/unrest (by sweet little lies to avoid race-riots, looting etc. )

China now claiming pets play a role in spreading the virus-without any further proof-may be such a form of crowd control (not a "sweet little lie").

Another note-there are several reports that trace back the first nCov-case to beginning of december 2019. China first seem to have been in denial. This outbreak may be going on for (over ?) two months-not just one month.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Decameron was written during the plague 1348-1353.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Fair_(ballad), rosemary, and thyme, were supposed to help against the plague. https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/environment-quirky-science-supplements/mystique-parsley-sage-rosemary-and-thyme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 5:00pm
Watching World War Z so is there a chink in the coronavirus that can stop it like in the movie. Or is that just movie BS?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 10:52pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_3hNPTofEU Peak Prosperity trying to follow the nCov-pandemic;

The official data on the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus continues to suggest a geometric growth rate. Which explains why more and more infectious disease experts are now openly calling the virus a full-blown global pandemic.

It's worth noting at this point that the data we do have, mostly from the Chinese government, is still scant and suspect. Many think the situation is China is worse than is being reported -- potentially much worse.

Frustratingly, the Western press seems bent on downplaying the coronavirus threat, many trying to convince us that the standard flu is more dangerous. Which is NOT true, at least in terms of survivability.

So, we must continue to educate ourselves as best we can. Chris will continue synthesizing the data and reporting back to you with understandable and practical insights.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/virus-party-we-are-now-phase-3

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-president-not-seen-for-5-days

DJ-The nCov most likely is widespread around the globe. To find out how widespread it is you would have to test people ad random on a large scale. Maybe then you may find out how dangerous this nCov realy is.

In a "good scenario" the nCov-virus is widespread but not giving much problems for most-no problems at all or just a cold...(at least in this phase).

In a "bad scenario" the nCov is widespread and most people infected may develop serious health issues within two weeks.

I-DJ-am not talking about China now. I will not even start on developing countries were most people hardly ever see a doctor.

I am talking of the EU, US, Australia etc. You will not get a nCov-test that easy. There is a limited number of tests, testing cost money-so only serious health issues with China-travel history (maybe indirect) may get tested.

A lot of people will go to their jobs even when they are not a 100% okay-do not want to loose the job/income, let collegues down...

Statistics is a great way to lie, create a false picture. Governments show they are in control with statistics...even when those numbers have lost touch with reality.

We-in the west-will find out we are in trouble when school closes because there are not enough teachers, super markets close, public transport comes to a minimum..

China most likely will see the export implode-and with that incomes and-later on-banks. This nCov will send a shockwave alover the financial world. We may see a recession, loss of jobs.

Health care workers will be hit the hardest by this nCov-outbreak-this will effect the whole medical sector and mean more deaths.

Russia claim they have some form of treatment, many people around the globe are working to find a cure (China will try some experimental drugs-most likely-on people that would die without treatment).

With so much unknown data-a virus out of sight-able to re-infect-we are "swimming in mud" and not making much progres.
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"Statistics is a great way to lie, create a false picture."

The other thing is that when the figures get too bad the government could stop releasing them "to avoid panic".    During the swine flu outbreak the Finnish Health Authorities published a daily up-date of the death toll, then they suddenly stopped and only after the outbreak was over did they publish the new death toll (over double of when they stopped).

We know swine flu was not so bad, so I expect if the Wuhan virus gets loose in the west one of the responses could be to stop reporting or reduce it (say "we are overwhelmed with this so rather than reporting daily we will report just once a week").

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 02 2020 at 11:13pm
"When not in control of the facts be in control of the numbers".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 4:17am
Everything has a weakness, FluMom. Finding it is the tricky bit. ('And sadly, having worked briefly in a research lab, I can personally attest to there being no Brad Pits around - But my old Boss did look a lot like Sting )
Absence of proof is not proof of absence. & Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 03 2020 at 9:54pm
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
Peak prosperity;
-CFR at least 3%, severe cases 25%
-No nCov in Latin America, Africa, SW Asia ? or undetected
-effecting males harder than females
-still rising numbers

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-cant-let-my-mom-die-home-desperate-patients-swarm-wuhan-hospital-hong-kong-closes

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-cant-let-my-mom-die-home-desperate-patients-swarm-wuhan-hospital-hong-kong-closes

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/4-plagues-are-marching-across-asia-simultaneously-coronavirus-african-swine-fever-h5n1-bird (the H5N1=India, China has H5N8) and H1N1

DJ-With healthcare getting overstretched by nCov there will be less capability to deal with other outbreaks-making all of it less controllable.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/discovery-coronavirus-doorknob-infected-patient-sparks-transmission-concerns
transmission also via the mail ?

https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus/
ALERT: Coronavirus Pandemic Event Now A Serious Risk
The prudent are preparing for it

Note: An ALERT is only issued when events cause me to take personal actions. I am preparing for the possibility of a global pandemic that will arrive in my own country. You should, too. This is the sort of on-the-spot analysis and reporting that we routinely offer to our subscribers but, due to the nature of this threat, we are making it public.

DJ-Time to give up on optimistic scenario's of getting this outbreak under control in the short term.
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Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn’t contained

By ******** Begley @sxbegle

February 4, 2020     



With the new coronavirus spreading from person to person (possibly including from people without symptoms), reaching four continents, and traveling faster than SARS, driving it out of existence is looking increasingly unlikely.

It’s still possible that quarantines and travel bans will first halt the outbreak and then eradicate the microbe, and the world will never see 2019-nCoV again, as epidemiologist Dr. Mike Ryan, head of health emergencies at the World Health Organization, told STAT on Saturday. That’s what happened with SARS in 2003.

Many experts, however, view that happy outcome as increasingly unlikely. “Independent self-sustaining outbreaks [of 2019-nCoV] in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic cases,” scientists at the University of Hong Kong concluded in a paper published in The Lancet last week.


Researchers are therefore asking what seems like a defeatist question but whose answer has huge implications for public policy: What will a world with endemic 2019-nCoV — circulating permanently in the human population — be like?


“It’s not too soon to talk about this,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease specialist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “We know that respiratory viruses are especially difficult to control, so I think it’s very possible that the current outbreak ends with the virus becoming endemic.”

Experts see two possibilities, each with unique consequences:

Just another coronavirus

2019-nCoV joins the four coronaviruses now circulating in people. “I can imagine a scenario where this becomes a fifth endemic human coronavirus,” said Stephen Morse of Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, an epidemiologist and expert on emerging infectious diseases. “We don’t pay much attention to them because they’re so mundane,” especially compared to seasonal flu.

Although little-known outside health care and virology circles, the current four “are already part of the winter-spring seasonal landscape of respiratory disease,” Adalja said. Two of them, OC43 and 229E, were discovered in the 1960s but had circulated in cows and bats, respectively, for centuries. The others, HKU1 and NL63, were discovered after the 2003-2004 SARS outbreak, also after circulating in animals. It’s not known how long they’d existed in people before scientists noticed, but since they jumped from animals to people before the era of virology, it isn’t known whether that initial jump triggered widespread disease.

OC43 and 229E are more prevalent than other endemic human coronaviruses, especially in children and the elderly. Together, the four are responsible for an estimated one-quarter of all colds. “For the most part they cause common-cold-type symptoms,” said Richard Webby, an influenza expert at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital. “Maybe that is the most likely end scenario if this thing becomes entrenched.”
Support STAT: STAT is offering coverage of the coronavirus for free. Please consider a subscription to support our journalism. Start free trial today.

All four, in particular HKU1, can cause pneumonia, and sometimes death. It is rare enough that researchers do not have good estimates of its prevalence or virulence, but two of the others have been better studied. In one of the few close looks at OC43 and 229E, researchers measured their infection rates during four winters (1999-2003) in Rochester, N.Y., among 2,897 healthy outpatients, adults with cardiopulmonary disease, and patients hospitalized with acute respiratory illnesses.

They identified 398 coronavirus infections (four people had both OC43 or 229E). Infection rates ran from 0.5% among healthy elderly adults to 15% among healthy young adults (where “healthy” means they had no viral symptoms), with the highest rates coming in the winter of 2000-2001, for no obvious reason — suggesting that coronavirus infection rates will rise and fall unpredictably, much like seasonal flu, and that its consequences will also be similar: some serious illness, some mild, and a lot of asymptomatic infections.

The most common symptoms were runny nose, cough, and congestion, for about 10 days; no one even ran a fever. All told, 35% of infections with 229E and 18% with OC43 were asymptomatic. “Asymptomatic infection … [meaning] without respiratory symptoms was fairly common,” the authors concluded.

A new type of coronavirus is responsible for the outbreak of respiratory illnesses that began in Wuhan, China December 2019. While experts are still unclear how exactly these viruses are transmitted, coronaviruses such as those that caused the SARS and MERS outbreaks in years past offer clues.

Alex Hogan and Hyacinth Empinado/STAT

But sometimes symptoms were nothing to sneeze at. There were 96 coronavirus infections among the 1,388 hospitalized patients. OC43 caused more severe disease than 229E, requiring intensive care for 15% of those infected. About one-third of the patients admitted to the hospital with either coronavirus developed pneumonia; one of the 229E patients and two of the OC43 patients died.

On the bright side, if a coronavirus infects enough people regularly there will be greater business incentive to develop a vaccine and other countermeasures. That never happened with SARS because it died out, leaving no market for such products.

On the decidedly darker side, a fifth endemic coronavirus means more sickness and death from respiratory infections.

Odds: Moderate. “I think there is a reasonable probability that this becomes the fifth community-acquired coronavirus,” Adalja said, something he expanded on in his blog. Webby agreed: “I have a little bit of hope that, OK, we’ll put up with a couple of years of heightened [2019-nCoV] activity before settling down to something like the other four coronaviruses.”
2019-nCoV returns repeatedly like seasonal flu

The “seasonal” reflects the fact that viruses can’t tolerate high heat and humidity, preferring the cool and dry conditions of winter and spring, Webby said. That’s why flu, as well as the four coronaviruses, are less prevalent in warm, humid months. If the new coronavirus follows suit, then containment efforts plus the arrival of summer should drive infections to near zero.

But also like flu viruses, that doesn’t mean it’s gone.

The “bad” reflects the fact that the number of 2019-nCoV cases and deaths so far suggests that the new coronavirus has a fatality rate around 2%. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, since mild cases aren’t all being counted. But even 2% is less than SARS’ 10% and nowhere near the 37% of MERS (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus). On the other hand, seasonal flu kills fewer than 0.1% of those it infects, though that’s still tens of thousands of deaths a year just in the U.S. The global disaster that was the 1917 “Spanish flu” pandemic killed 2.5%.
Related:
To fight coronavirus spread, the U.S. may expand ‘social distancing’ measures. But it comes at a cost

“One scenario is that we go through a pandemic,” as the current outbreak may become, said Columbia’s Morse. “Then, depending what the virus does, it could quite possibly settle down into a respiratory illness that comes back seasonally.”

The toll that would take depends on how many people it infects and how virulent it is. Virulence reflects the viruses’ genetics.

The genome of the novel coronavirus consists of a single stand of RNA. Microbes with that kind of genome mutate “notoriously quickly,” said biologist Michael Farzan of Scripps Research, who in 2005 was part of the team that identified the structure of the “spike protein” by which SARS enters human cells.

But SARS has a molecular proofreading system that reduces its mutation rate, and the new coronavirus’s similarity to SARS at the genomic level suggests it does, too. “That makes the mutation rate much, much lower than for flu or HIV,” Farzan said. That lowers the chance that the virus will evolve in some catastrophic way to, say, become significantly more lethal.

The coronavirus “may not change [genetically] at all” in a way that alters function, said biologist Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh, who has been analyzing the genomes of the 2019-nCoV’s from dozens of patients. “It is transmitting quite well already so it may not have to ‘evolve’ to be endemic.”

Any evolution that does take place in an endemic coronavirus, including one that spikes seasonally, might well be toward less virulence. “It doesn’t want to kill you before you transmit it,” Farzan said. “One would therefore expect a slow attenuation” of virulence if the virus becomes like seasonal flu. Dead people don’t transmit viruses, “and even people sitting in their beds and shivering” because they are seriously ill “don’t transmit that well,” he said.

The toll of a seasonal-flu-like coronavirus also depends on immunity — which is also scientifically uncertain. Exposure to the four endemic coronaviruses produces immunity that lasts longer than that to influenza, Webby said, but not permanent immunity. Like respiratory syncytial virus, which can re-infect adults who had it in childhood, coronavirus immunity wanes.
Related:
With coronavirus, as with AIDS and Ebola, we must move beyond the fear

“Everyone, by the time they reach adulthood, should have some immunity to some coronavirus,” said Tim Sheahan, a coronavirus researcher at University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health. But because it doesn’t last, older people can get reinfected. The elderly also have a higher death rate from coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS, a pattern 2019-nCoV is following.

“There is some evidence that people can be reinfected with the four coronaviruses and that there is no long-lasting immunity,” Dr. Susan Kline, an infectious disease specialist at of the University of Minnesota. “Like rhinoviruses [which cause the common cold], you could be infected multiple times over your life. You can mount an antibody response, but it wanes, so on subsequent exposure you don’t have protection.” Subsequent infections often produce milder illness, however.

The common-cold-causing coronaviruses are different enough that an infection from one won’t produce immunity to another. But the novel coronavirus overlaps enough with SARS that survivors of the 2002-3003 outbreak might have some immunity to the new arrival, Sheahan said: “Is it enough to prevent infection? I don’t know.”

How widespread even limited immunity would be, and therefore how many people would become ill from the next go-round of 2019-nCoV, also “depends on how many people get infected the first time around,” Webby said. That number is certainly higher than the more than 20,000 identified cases, since people with no or mild symptoms escape the attention of health care systems.

Since 2019-nCoV is new, “this first wave will be particularly bad because we have an immunologically naïve population,” Adalja said. Future waves should pass by people who were exposed (but not necessarily sickened) this time around, Morse said, “but that assumes this virus doesn’t develop the tricks of flu,” which famously tweaks the surface molecules that the immune system can see, making itself invisible to antibodies from previous exposures.

Odds: Pretty good. What we may be seeing “is the emergence of a new coronavirus … that could very well become another seasonal pathogen that causes pneumonia,” said infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. It would be “more than a cold” and less than SARS: “The only other pathogen I can compare it to is seasonal influenza.”



Source:   https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=dcc6ede003-briefing-dy-20200204&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-dcc6ede003-43962649
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http://www.avianflutalk.com/dr-michael-osterholm-says-ncov-is-unstoppable-now_topic40737.html DJ-Nice Michael Osterholm is mentioned in the statnews-article. But he is saying something different than the statnews article mentions.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178566.shtml;
A batch of Remdesivir, an antiviral drug that will be put into clinical trials to test its efficiency on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), is expected to arrive in China on Tuesday, according to the Ministry of Science and Technology.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178578.shtml;
Wuhan in central China's Hubei Province plans to convert another eight existing venues, including gymnasiums, exhibition centers and sports centers, into hospitals to receive patients infected with the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), local authorities said Tuesday.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178586.shtml;
A Chinese research institute in Wuhan announced it had applied to patent a medicine made in the US after discovering it was effective in dealing with the novel coronavirus, triggering debate on Chinese social media over whether the move violates intellectual property regulations.

DJ-China is-now-doing all they can to stop (the spread of the) nCov. But it is already very widespread. Maybe summer will be able to have more effect that human efforts ? (That is when indeed the nCov is not "summer-proof-cases in Thailand, India, (Pakistan ????) will have to give an indication.

Even when China is able to deal with this massive outbreak-other countries/regions (North Korea, Africa, India etc.) may become new risk-zones.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1178394.shtml;
Although the novel coronavirus will cause a drop in China's first quarter economic growth, the impact can be controlled, with the GDP growth rate expected to stay above 5 percent in the first quarter of 2020. The country's economic growth rate is likely to remain robust at 6 percent for the year.

The coronavirus outbreak during the Chinese New Year holiday season meant the holiday was prolonged. The virus' impact is mainly concentrated in a few areas, including tourism, transportation, education and aviation.

DJ-In my eyes the "Global Times" is "a bit optimistic". The combination of several outbreaks H5N8, H1N1, nCov and African Swine Flu should be a warning for China they have to do things in a safer way.

For now it looks like the number of cases in the EU, UK, US is not going up very fast-maybe that is a sign of hope.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 05 2020 at 2:14am
https://health.liveuamap.com/epidemics

https://health.liveuamap.com/en/2020/5-february-a-woman-suspected-of-having-coronavirus-escapedfrom quarantine at a Salzburg, Austria, hospital overnight. Officers found her at her home and took her back to hospital. Her test results are due later today
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2020 at 11:33pm
DJ-https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ir79nIFbobA;

Peak Prosperity;

As China now has placed over 400 million of its citizens under quarantine, China's economy is grinding to a halt.

Workers can't leave their homes. Factories are idle. Most (if not all) of China's ports are no longer shipping. International flights are increasingly banned from the country.

When the world's #2 economy hangs up a big "CLOSED" sign, that's going to result in a major negative impact on global trade.

As the manufacturing powerhouse to the world, you'll be challenged to think of ANY industry that won't experience serious supply chain interruptions and shortages from China's woes. Did you know China makes the vast majority of our prescription pharmaceuticals?

A MASSIVE hit to the global economy will directly result from the damage the coronavirus is currently doing. And it may get worse, a lot worse.

So ignore today's ridiculous all-time high stock prices. They can't last in the face of what's coming.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/doctor-warns-30-medical-staff-working-wuhan-hospital-now-infected-ncov

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jpmorgan-now-expects-china-q1-gdp-drop-1-crash-4-if-coronavirus-not-contained

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-quarantines-shenzen-now-400-million-under-quarantine-as-cdc-says-virus-containment-not-possible-in-china

DJ-China is stopping almost all of its export. This includes all kind of medical goods, car parts, electronics etc. All over the world factories will have to close since there is no short term replacement for those goods. Most of those export goes by boat-the latest shipments will see their destination in the coming days and than production will get effected by a shut down of exports.

When people all around the globe have to stop their work, lose their income, shops can no longer sell China-partly made-goods it may get harder to avoid widespread panic. Certainly when nCov keeps spreading...

With 400.000.000 people in isolation-to get a grip on the virus 30% of China population, 5% of global population now in isolation.

With more and more medical workers getting infected themselves the "medical containment ring" is breaking up-and with that it may be the end of China. Maybe warmer weather can slow down the spread of the virus-is time on our side ?

How much food does have China in stock ? How secure is water supply, logistics, sewage ?

https://health.liveuamap.com/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 08 2020 at 10:35pm
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/caught-video-shows-china-bulldozing-piles-of-body-bags-into-giant-pit-photos-show-thousands-of-corpses-in-body-bags-stored-underground
DJ-This is fake-news-you burn infected boddies-you do not store them !

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/breaking-news-crew-member-found-dead-on-nj-docked-cruise-ship
Cruise ships, longer travel in train/plane is a perfect way to spread the virus. (In this story it may be the dead man died most likely NOT from nCov.) There are now several cruiseships in problems. Countries with "less strong government" will give in to pressure of the shipping companies NOT to isolate passengers. (Those boats have to go and sail or lose lots of money)

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/medical-experts-in-shanghai-confirm-virus-transmitted-by-air
DJ-If this is correct-and it might be-the nCov-problem is:
-spreading without first symptoms just after infection
-keeps spreading after symptoms show up-and maybe even still after recovery
-several cases of re-infection (that will make finding a serum very hard)
-virus can survive on (most) surfaces for (up to 9) days
-virus can infect people (by being that strong) over longer distances
-virus may spread via (some) animals (bats ???) without those animals getting sick themselves

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/first-american-citizen-dies-coronavirus-wuhan-5-britons-diagnosed-french-ski-town;

-More larger cities-Chengdu 14.4 million inhab.-under lockdown means virus still spreading inside China on a large scale

Carl Minzer-China is arresting infected people and locking them up-this may spread the virus

"Meanwhile, the bad news is that even with this unexpected drop in new cases, the cumulative total is still well above JPMorgan's base case forecast of 35,760 for Feb 8 (and certainly above the optimistic case of 30,957), and just shy of the pessimistic scenario of 39,018."
(DJ-The JPMorgan model goes to february 23-there is no point in trying to look that much further-simply not enough data.)


DJ-At best the official statistics reflect only people tested for nCov-with very much more people NOT being tested. The official number of deaths over 800 reflect TESTED cases-but is only a minor part of the real number of people who died from it.

The WHO etc know the "official numbers" do not reflect the real problem but for reasons of diplomacy has to work with the official data. (Just like the IPCC works with "official climate data")

DJ-One other remark-if indeed the nCov is not able to survive in warmer temperatures (unless it mutates in that way) March/April may bring down the number of cases (and bring more cases in the then colder regions ?)

(Maybe a stupid idea-can heat/warmth be used as a way to stop the virus at least on a small scale ? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Clement_VI#The_Black_Death;
Clement VI's physicians advised him that surrounding himself with torches would block the plague. However, he soon became skeptical of this recommendation and stayed in Avignon supervising sick care, burials, and the pastoral care of the dying.[51] He never contracted the disease, even though there was so much death around him that the cities ran out of ground for cemeteries, and he had to consecrate the entire Rhone River so that it could be considered holy ground and bodies could be thrown into it.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2020 at 11:23pm
DJ-Good latest update from Peak prosperity https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w;

Chinese officials are now warning the Wuhan coronavirus may spread by aerosol transmission.

We have known it spreads via fomites contained within mucus-based globules, spread by coughing, sneezing, etc.

But if it also transmits from human to human via aerosol means, it's likely FAR more contagious than previously feared.

Many of the most contagious diseases, like measles, spread as aerosols -- tiny particles that hang in the air for a protracted time.

If confirmed, this makes a very bad situation substantially worse.

And adding to the hit parade of bad news, recent research shows that coronavirus particles can survive on surfaces for up to 5-9 days. At least, the good news is that chlorine-based cleaners (like simple bleach) appear effective at killing the virus within 1 minute.

So, again, good hygiene practices are our best defense here. Avoid exposure, and when in public areas, protect your eyes/nose/mouth/skin, and sanitize often.

Meanwhile, the data shows the virus continues to spread around the world. And we see more indirect evidence that the infected and fatality data out of China may be much higher than what's being reported.


DJ-From the #17 update;

If spread by aerosol Ro may be close to measles-something like R18 or so....

Satellite data find major fires outside Wuhan-indicating mass cremations

Western embedded media/who keeps spreading false info, comparing nCov with flu or SARS while the reality indicates much worse. DJ-The only wise thing to do now-as far as I can see-is to stop airtransport all over the globe. With at least 2% of infected people not showing any signs, most spread occuring with people being in incubation period-the virus is airlifted.

To stop the spread of the virus you have to stop the transport of the virus. The only other way the virus will end being a major danger comes after "we all have been infected" and those who survived have immunity....

DJ-It is more and more moving into the worst case scenario's. Since the nCov is RNA-it mutates/adepts high speed. It will most likely adept to warmer weather in India/Africa....

https://health.liveuamap.com/en/2020/9-february-medical-expert-at-wuhan-university-hospital-saidthere are five possibilities that can cause a nucleic acid test result for coronavirus turn out to be false negative.

https://health.liveuamap.com/en/2020/8-february-2019ncov-while-transmission-outside-china-is-stilllimited, it could accelerate, @DrTedros said Saturday, urging countries to prepare
(Tedros is WHO)

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/death-rate-5-harrowing-admission-wuhan-doctor

(DJ-From the Peak Prosperity update-the new "hospitals" in China look like meant to isolate infected persons-no means for any treatment-people go there to die. Medical staff themselves also getting infected. )

DJ-How China dealt with massive fatalities;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Tangshan_earthquake#Death_toll
The official number of peole that died may be only 1/3 of the real number.

DJ-One question I have is why the number of infected cases outside China is not (yet) going exponential ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2020 at 9:46pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNArvGCBgJ4 Peak Prosperity;

A new report finds that the incubation period for the coronavirus may be as long as 24 days, 10 days longer than previous expected.

That means that the potential size of "infected & contagious yet unaware" masses walking around (outside of China's quarantine borders) could be substantially larger than feared.

On top of that, additional data from China's hospitals in Wuhan show that once a patient is hospitalized, meaning their condition has become severe, the death rate is very high (~20%). More reinforcement that you want to avoid this virus if at all possible.

And yet, the stock market remains unconcerned to the pandemic threat. Another up day, despite a warning from the Council on Foreign on the fragility of the US economy's dependence on Chinese supply chains.

Scary stat: 97% of all US antibiotics come from China.

Meanwhile, many regions in China are extending their 'return to work' deadlines as efforts to fight the outbreak continue. As we've been saying daily now, at some point, the markets are going to have to acknowledge the large and growing lack of economic production that is not occurring.

(DJ-KiwiMum had found somewere a possible 42 days incubation-time. With people being without any symptoms after being infected you simply may not be able to define an incubationperiod.)

DJ-CFR is put on 1% (by P.P.) but;
-the older you get the higher the risk of complications
-collapse of medical care means CFR goes up
-with 97% of anti-biotics coming out of China secondary bacterial infections can become deadly

Even India gets its supplies-to make medicine-from China. So a China stop in manufactering means a global stop in production of most medication.

Countries with an older population (like Japan) will suffer more than those with a younger population.

DJ-If there is no real way to find an incubation time it may be very hard to find out when this nCov stops being a risk.

The Dutch cruiseship (Holland America Line HAL "Westendam") is refused acces to Thailand ports, after being refused by Japan, Taiwan, Phillippinas. There are no known nCov cases with the over 2000 passengers and crew-still they are seen as a risk. PP-Japan is not able to test all the passengers and crew of the cruiseship now docked for several days with over 3700 passengers and a high number of nCov (so it looks like all on board will get infected)

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-warns-coronavirus-imminent-threat-after-suspected-super-spreader-returns-singapore

Summary:

Total global virus death toll hits 1018, with the number of global confirmed cases rising to 43,099, of which 42,638 in China and 461 offshore.
The number of severe cases jumped from 6,484 to 7,333, while the number of discharged patients rose by 716 from 3,281 to 3,996.
The epicenter, China's Hubei province, announced 103 new deaths - the biggest jump yet - to 1,011 deaths
Westerdam cruise ship to dock in Thailand after being turned away from 3 countries
Stocks are in the red as coronavirus worries return to rattle investor confidence
WHO designates 10 Chinese provinces 'hot spots'
UK confirms 4 more cases tied to possible 'super spreader'
Extended LNY holiday ends but millions still too afraid to return to office
WeWork Chairman says 100 buildings temporarily closed in China
Canadian finance minister warns nCoV "will hit Canadian economy..."
WHO says outbreak in Europe could be "spark that becomes a bigger fire"
Hong Kong reports 6 new cases, bringing total to 42, evacuates building where two nCoV patients lived
NRF forecasts drop in retail sales in February
British Airways extends China flight cancellations
President Xi addresses party officials at outbreak control center

DJ-With quarantine measurres now also in Bejing, Sjanghai is half of China now in some form of isolation ? That would be 700 million-10% of the global population ! If Japan is not able to test 3700 cruiseship passengers how would China be able to test all of possible infections ?

How come "we"are able to http://www.avianflutalk.com/netherlands-preventative-ncovtesting_topic40873.html ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2020 at 10:56pm
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
Another Peak Prosperity update;

-China not longer counting positive Covid-19 (new WHO name) cases without symptoms
-SARS vaccine caused cytokinestorm when a vaccined person got in contact with the SARS-virus-that person was better off with no vaccine
-It can take up to 18 months for a safe vaccine

Good article here on this forum http://www.avianflutalk.com/harvard-expert-says-coronavirus-likely-gathering-s_topic40924.html thank you Flubergasted ! https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/harvard-expert-says-coronavirus-likely-just-gathering-steam/

GAZETTE: Is it significant that there are so few cases internationally compared with the number in China? Is that an indication that control measures are working or is it just gathering steam internationally?

LIPSITCH: Unfortunately, I think it’s more likely to be that it’s gathering steam. We’ve released a preprint that we’ve been discussing publicly — and trying to get peer reviewed in the meantime — that looks at the numbers internationally, based on how many cases you would expect from normal travel volumes. And a couple of things are striking. One is that there are countries that really should be finding cases and haven’t yet, like Indonesia and maybe Cambodia. They are outside the range of uncertainty you would expect even given variability between countries. So our best guess is that there are undetected cases in those countries. Indonesia said a couple of days ago that it had done 50 tests, but it has a lot of air travel with Wuhan, let alone the rest of China. So 50 tests is not enough to be confident you’re catching all the cases. That’s one bit of evidence that to me was really striking. Second, I was reading The Wall Street Journal that Singapore had three cases so far that were not traced to any other case. Singapore is the opposite of Indonesia, in that they have more cases than you would expect based on their travel volume, probably because they’re better at detection. And even they are finding cases that they don’t have a source for. That makes me think that many other places do as well. Of course, we’re making guesses from limited information, but I think they’re pretty likely to be correct guesses, given the totality of information.

DJ-Also PP reported false Covid-19 test results. Basicly ;
One question I’ve gotten a lot is whether it will go away in warmer weather, like SARS did. I’m not at all convinced that SARS went away because of the warmer weather. I think it went away because people got it under control in May and June. But there is some evidence — and we’re working on quantifying it — that coronaviruses do transmit less efficiently in the warmer weather. So it’s possible that we will get some help from that, but I don’t think that will solve the problem, as evidenced by the fact that there’s transmission in Singapore, on the equator.

DJ: Covid-19 is widespread and here to stay. The best possible scenario is to slow the spread so try to limit all of us getting ill at the same time.
There is some hope-not all persons get symptoms-and when they get symptoms it can be "just a cold".

What makes things far more complex is that China is the main producer of anti-biotics. Co-infections may make this "widespread-scenario" much worse.

I think it is likely some "regions may collapse" no government left.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/13-us-virus-case-confirmed-san-diego-china-fires-2-top-health-officials-over-botched;

Summary:

Two inmates at a UK prison are being tested for coronavirus and have been restricted to their cells
(DJ-How could this happen ???)
13th case diagnosed in San Diego was evacuee rescued from Wuhan, she was briefly accidentally released
Latest numbers bring the global totals for cases and deaths to 44,753 cases and 1,112 deaths.
CNBC's Eunice Yoon reports on China's sluggish 'return to work'
Hong Kong building residents quarantined over fears virus spread via pipes
Cruise ship with 0 nCoV cases refused entry to fourth port, in danger of running out of food
Beijing fires top health officials in Hubei, summons others to Beijing for an explanation
Scientists in Hong Kong and the mainland present vastly different takes on virus
2 Japanese men test positive but were accidentally released
President Xi says China will be 'more prosperous' after outbreak
Experts suspicious about how Indonesia hasn't reported any nCoV cases
Xi also reportedly warned top officials that efforts to contain the virus had gone 'too far'
CDC admits lab "mix up" led to coronavirus patient being briefly released back to quarantine
Another citizen journalist goes missing in China
Hilton warns travel numbers could be impacted for up to a year after Under Armor saw shares plunge on sales warning
Bullard warns virus still major "tail risk" for US economy and markets
Germany confirms 2 more cases bringing total to 14
WSJ publishes harrowing stories showing China's coronavirus tests aren't very accurate
Cruise ship quarantined in Japan announces 39 more cases

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/how-xi-jinpings-controlocracy-lost-control

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-dealmaking-and-ipos-freeze-amid-virus-outbreak
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2020 at 9:40pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bsg7_h8TiLA Peak Prosperity-update

The coronavirus continues its spread through China and surrounding Asian countries.

The data increasingly show that this virus is wickedly contagious, especially in crowded environments where population density is high -- like the densely-packed buildings in cities.

As a frightening example: in Japan, a health worker was infected while inspecting a quarantined cruise ship, despite wearing a hazmat suit and taking standard precautions.

On the more positive side, we are hearing "success" stories from those who have now recovered from the virus. These are mostly folks who had less serious cases, which is around 80% of those infected.

But, on the more concerning side, evidence is showing that those who recover may not have immunity from catching the virus again. And, that a second infection could potentially result in a much more serious threat to life.

As usual, we still need more detail before drawing hard conclusions. There are many elements still unknown about this virus -- such as why the rate of spread appears much lower outside of China than within.

DJ-In the Netherlands still no cases of Covid-19. With thousends of students, tourists, workers in trade and industry from China we should have cases by now-statisticly....

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/what-happened-after-one-chinese-company-rushed-reopen-after-corona-chaos

Today, two days after China officially returned to work, we got the first confirmation of just how catastrophic Beijing's order to local enterprises and businesses to rush back reboot the economy could be, when Jennifer Zeng reported that a company in Suzhou reopened, and immediately at least one CoVid2019 case found. As a result, the company's 200+ employees couldn't go home and were immediately placed under quarantine. At least the workers managed to "organize" quilts for themselves.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-reports-huge-jump-new-coronavirus-infections-deaths-oil-stocks-tumble-gold-soars

China changed its mind and has reverted to the original definition of "infection" while also including "clinical diagonisis" to determine if a new infection had take place.
-
it somehow also changed the definition of "death", because at the same time as the explosion in new cases, which clearly indicates that the pandemic is now clearly out of control, the number of reported deaths in Hubei alone spiked by 242 to 1,310 (we are still waiting for the official number of deaths across all of China which will likely add quite a few more cases to the Hubei total).

What is absolutely terrifying about the chart above is that, of the 242 new deaths, more than double the previous day's total, is that according to the Hubei government, 135 are from the new "clinically diagnosed" category. This means that for weeks China was likely assigning coronavirus deaths to pneumonia (as we warned it was doing on Jan 25 in "This Is How China Is Hiding The True Number Of Coronavirus Deaths"), which also means that the real number of Coronavirus deaths is likely in the thousands.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-bombers-fly-near-taiwan-after-chinese-aggression-beijing-warned-focus-fighting

DJ-While it is still not very clear what caused this covid-19 outbreak-mostly in China-it is clear that it will do very major damage to China's economy and plans for a "New Silk Road".

The more China is collapsing-certainly when Covid-19 stays limited outside China- the more China may start blaming others for its healthcrisis.

Claims, a.o. by Russia, that this outbreak is the result of a US bio-weapon attack, may bring even further global destabilization.

The world will soon find out how damaging the stop of production in China will effect the rest of the world. Antibiotics will-as far as being produced-be used for China's own demand. The rest of the world has to restart production of all kind of essentials NOW to deal with very major shortages on their way.

https://health.liveuamap.com/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2020 at 10:08pm
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/four-coronavirus-scenarios-bad-worse-ugly-and-unthinkable
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCD2-QVBQi48RRQTD4Jhxu8w
Peak Prosperity updates.

DJ-I think we may have to "try to go for the best worse case scenario" as possible. We can not stop covid-19, it will effect all of us, no matter if you have a European, Asian or African background, male or female, young or old.

"The best" in the worse case scenario would ask for;
-at least slowing down the virus-spread so to limit the peak of serious cases. At least be able to provide some care as a society.
-start up production of medication, antibiotics outside China. Co-infections that become untreatable may kill even more people than the covid-19.
-realistic information by governments; we can not stop it but we can deal with it.

Since the virus does spread human to human (H2H);
-schools, factories etc will have to be closed
some things (lessons, office jobs) can be done via the internet.
some duties are essential, nuclear safety, energy, dealing with fires, heatwaves, flooding etc. how do we deal with that in combination with dealing with the covid-19

We may have to face a crisis that can last for a few years. If that was the only problem we had covid-19 could be a "bad Spanish flu"scenario...
(If the Spanish flu killed up to 5% of the population-5% now would be 400 million people. In my opinion covid-19 is worse-it would be a good thing if we could see "only" 10% of all people killed.)

Climate change and nuclear war can make things much worse...

Maybe I am to pessimistic. The covid-19 virus may not survive the summer and only China get hit very bad. Still that would ask for other countries to start their own medicationproduction-China will in such a "good case scenario" need time to recover.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them. This means only going for profit in healthcare is shortsighted. China (a.o.) has to deal in a different way in animalcare.

When we-as humans-like to see ourselves as "better than animals", "civilized" maybe we should define norms for that and make those norms-human rights-become reality.

Access to healthcare, housing, education for all can limit the damage. I find it unacceptable to call our present society anything close to "civilization" when only 1% of us claim to own over 50%...denying a lot of us access to basic human rights, creating their poverty, unmasks us as the "savages with a tie" we may turn out to be....
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2020 at 10:37pm
DJ-I am trying to get a picture of what to expect-there is an "(des)information overflow" so it is hard to get a realistic view.

Peak Prosperity-in my opinion-tries to be realistic https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gojy7ChZ8h8;

While China remains largely in lockdown, covid-19 cases in the rest of the world are at a key juncture.

To-date, confirmed cases have been lower than feared. Though increasingly, we're suspecting that's due to inadequate testing & reporting.

And the cases we *do* know of (now at ~1,000) appear to be growing at an exponential rate. So the next two weeks will be critical in telling the tale.We'll soon know whether the spread is indeed slower than initially feared, or we'll start to see huge increases in the number of infected ex-China.

Meanwhile, the authorities around the world, including the WHO and CDC, continue to downplay the threat. But at the same time, governments are busy mobilizing massive containment efforts.
Their words do not match their actions. Is there more we're not being told?

As we've said, time will soon tell. Keep up your efforts to remain informed, as good information is scarce right now.

DJ-So the numbers outside of China still go exponential. Feb 18=1000 cases-outside China (mainland), week double=feb 25=2000 cases (most in Japan, Singapore ?) around march 3 4000 cases, march 10=8000 cases, march17=16.000 cases, march24=32.000 cases, march 31=64.000 cases ?

Also-very likely no testing done even when there are symptoms and travelhistory with China ?

(DJ-question can flu mix with covid-19 in some way-maybe start following the same spreadpattern-???)

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/complete-lockdown-of-wuhan-china-no-one-allowed-out-of-house-not-even-to-buy-food-or-water

DJ-The "embedded" media is claiming new infection cases going down in China. Now I do not believe everything Hal Turner is claiming. But the news of even stricter rules to stop the spread in Wuhan coincides with other reports of China still not able to get a good grip on the situation.

"What the Chinese have done is unprecedented in human history. They have literally enacted "cordon sanitaire" for whole cities totally at least 760+ million people." DJ-This indicates that the real situation in China is far worse than reported-at best the number of fatalities is TESTED for covid19 fatalities-and a far higher number of deaths NOT tested....

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/10-plagues-are-hitting-our-planet-simultaneously

DJ-The stop of production in China will start effecting global economy soon-most likely will be the beginning of a global depression (in many ways). I do not expect China to be able to restart her economy on a large scale in the short term.

This means a sharp rise in factories being unable to work-since they get no parts from China. So many will be out of work/income....
Also medical problems will get "hard to manage"-all kind of medication may become unavailable.

It is a good thing there seem to be forms of treatment for the covid-19. It would be wise when countries would start learning lessons and start investing in treatment for the coming cases.

I do think covid-19 will be here in the summer-Hong Kong, Singapore cases show adaptation to warmer weather (not to mention India, Africa were it is under the radar.)
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2020 at 8:19pm
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/02/19/619035/Iran-coronavirus-cases-confirmation-Qom-health;
Alireza Wahhabzadeh said one of the two had been suffering from chemical weapons injuries suffered during the Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s. He described the other victim as a 65-old man, without elaborating.

The news of the deaths came hours after authorities confirmed first two cases for coronavirus in Iran.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXelEi4tqAo Peak Prosperity
(DJ-In his video also mentions a third death in Tehran-Iran due to covid19 over a week ago. There must be a lot of cases in Iran !)
The world is now watching closely to see if the coronavirus is indeed poised to accelerate outside of China.

In yesterday's video, we warned that the coming two weeks will be crucial in determining how bad the pandemic will be.

The early results are not encouraging. New cases continue to climb in the rest of Asia -- Japan, Korea and Singapore are being hit hardest.

And now we have the first two cases (and two deaths!) reported in Iran. That's on top of last week's confirmed case in Africa.

So now the virus is on every continent save Antarctica.

Also, new research provides the explanation for why those infected a second time by covid-19 are at much higher risk.

Chris breaks down the science in layman's terms to explain the nature of the danger, but the key takeaway is: while you for sure don't want to contract covid-19, you DEFINITELY don't want to get it a second time...

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/10-very-important-questions-mainstream-media-should-be-asking-about-coronavirus

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/you-are-here-stages-collapse-exposed, https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/terrifying-charts-show-chinas-economy-remains-completely-paralyzed

DJ-With (IMF list) the second (China) and third (Japan) largest economies now in covid-19 crisis global economy-already close to a major crisis-is pushed "over the edge".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNm86mtWDes Global News Canada;

In this episode of Global National, Jackson Proskow looks at how the production of vital pharmaceuticals and medical supplies has ground to a halt in China, the epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak. We see how the situation is expected to impact doctors, hospitals and patients worldwide. Plus, Mike Armstrong explains how one infectious diseases expert says he was scared to be on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that remains docked near Tokyo in Japan.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2020 at 10:02pm
Peak Prosperity update; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0NhJrca9Qts;

The public's trust in the authorities running our system is suffering as a result of officials' ham-fisted tactics.

Good information is increasingly hard to come by as world governments suppress any and all non-official sources. And much of the official 'data' being released appears untrustworthy. In many cases, it seems too benign for the massive and draconian efforts governments are taking around the world.

The media, too, appears complicit. It's neither asking the tough questions or providing the useful information the public is hungry for right now.

Ditto for the financial markets, which are doing their damndest to act as if the growing covid-19 pandemic is a non-event.

Such breaking of trust is what researcher Neil Howe warned of in his excellent work 'The Fourth Turning', predicting a period of profound loss of faith in public institutions.While there are many contributing factors -- massive world debt, huge wealth disparity, planetary resource depletion -- the social angst being stirred up by the coronavirus is a classic symptom of a Fourth Turning.
Expect an even bumpier road ahead...

(From the video; cases men/women ratio = 5 or 6 to 3, South Korea now is a major problem. Evacuees from the Diamond Princess-Yokohama do not know how to put on a mask ???? Japan keeps spreading the virus.
DJ-Five passengers are Dutch-will NOT go in isolation after return in the Netherlands....)

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/south-korean-coronavirus-cases-explode-after-super-spreader-event

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/cdc-bulletin-to-u-s-hospitals-open-your-pandemic-plans-now

DJ-Iran is keeping the info on cases "limited". North Korea also not very open. India ? Pakistan ? Africa ? )

https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/02/20/619145/Qatar-decries-Saudi-Arabia%E2%80%99s-blocking-its-minister-from-attending-emergency-meeting-on-coronavirus
https://en.irna.ir/news/83682322/Two-patients-suspected-of-coronavirus-quarantined-in-northern Iran
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 9:10am
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/easily-overlooked-issues-regarding-covid-19;

https://www.eturbonews.com/542533/coronavirus-risk-for-asians-africans-caucasians-revealed/
East Asians, Japanese, and Han Chinese are the most likely people to become severely sick by the coronavirus with a chance of more than 90% when exposed. Europeans only rank in the 50%, Africans in the 60% range, and considered low to medium. It also makes a difference if one is a smoker or non-smoker. (DJ And male or female)

The longer the shutdown lasts, the more likely there is to be a major collapse of the Chinese economy.
In the event of a long-term shutdown, it would seem likely that, at a minimum, a new leader would take over. In fact, there would seem to be a significant chance of major changes within the economy. For example, the provinces of China that are able to restart might attempt to restart, leaving the more damaged areas behind. In such a case, instead of having a single Chinese government to deal with, there might be multiple governmental units to deal with.

Each governmental unit might consist of a few provinces trying to provide services such as they are able, without the benefit of the parts of the economy that are still shut down. Each governmental unit might have its own currency. If this should happen, China will be able to provide far fewer goods and services than it has in the recent past.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cases-covid-19-south-korea-double-overnight-alarming-prison-outbreak-reported-china;
UPI reported earlier that everal patients in China who were discharged from hospitals after making a full recovery have been reinfected, citing reports in the People's Daily on Friday.

One patient in Chengdu was discharged from a local hospital and was quarantined for 14 days at home, but somehow became reinfected. And doctors quoted in the story said her case isn't unique.

DJ-Can summer save us ? The corona-virus not deal with higher temperatures ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2020 at 11:21pm
Peak Prosperity reporting only 3 US states have the working testkits for covid-19. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnJ2iLZd7HY;
Outside of the lockdown within China, covid-19 cases are accelerating across the globe.The virus has truly jumped the defense line. It's now a true pandemic, with countries all over the world reporting huge percent increases in the number of infected cases.

We already know it has reached 'endemic' status in Japan and South Korea. But overnight, new cases have been declared by the US, Italy, Iran, Lebanon, the UAE and Israel, among others.

And within China, reports of patient "re-infection" are starting. We've been talking about the adverse metabolic response a second covid-19 can cause. Are we starting to see examples of that? Time will tell.

Meanwhile, the markets are begrudgingly waking up to the severe damage China's broken supply chains are inflicting on world trade.

How much worse will it get? Again, time will tell...

DJ-The US-and many other countries-only expect to find new cases in a person with recent travel history to China or contact with someone who did travel to China....

If you do not test for covid-19 you will not find new cases....most countries simply in denial.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/cases-covid-19-south-korea-double-overnight-alarming-prison-outbreak-reported-china;

Summary:

South Korea reported 142 new cases, up 70% in one day, to 346; The country also reported its second death.
China reported 397 new cases, bringing the total cases to 76,288, and an additional 109 new deaths or 2,345 in total.
Italy reports 1st virus death, 15 additional cases, 10 cities on lockdown
34 cases in USA.
China pledges to build 19 new hospitals in Wuhan
Hawaii hasn't tested any suspected cases in the state
253 more passengers depart the diamond princess as 11 of 13 American evacuees in Nebraska test positive
Local authorities in China warn people will be punished for not returning to work if ordered
WHO's Tedros: Window for confronting virus rapidly closing
CDC says virus tremendous health threat, warns more human to human transmission of the virus in the US likely
First case declared in Lebanon
Iran confirms 9 more cases as virus reaches Tehran
South Korea reported massive jump in cases on Friday as total climbed to 204
Global Times insinuates that US might be covering up coronavirus cases
Health officials in Hubei 'apologize' for changing case confirmation 'criteria'

DJ-Covid19 now in Iran, Lebanon, Israel also Egypt is a combination of the virus and a warzone, refugees, bad healthconditions. Looking at Isfahan-Iran weather =20C/70F-the virus is spreading in weather we would have in NW Europe in may. Singapore is 30C/90F....that is summer weather for most of us...

DJ-I also noted not so much news on how this pandemic will effect medication supply. From antibiotics to painkillers, medical gear is "under severe pressure".

China can not stop producing goods for much longer before the country itself faces bankruptcy.

DJ-My conclusions;

1-Covid19 is unstoppable for now will spread around the globe
2-reports of reinfections means several "waves" of the pandemic
3-the impact of the covid19 is that large it can break up any country
4-A lot of people will die due to lack of medication (for other illnesses)
5-With already over 30% of health care workers infected in some parts of China forget about major healthcare in the coming months to be able to deal with this pandemic
6-Covid19 will be the "end of us" much worse than the Spanish flu or even the plague

We live in the 21st century in wich lots of installations need 24/7 care-from dams to nuclear plants. We have a global economy based on debt. We are already in the middle of a climate crisis-the sixth mass extinction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction is on its way-now its coming for us...

I hope somehow the virus will slow down for some reason. With the cases in the Middle East, Singapore I do not believe "summer will stop it".

Sheltering in place only works when you do not need some types of medication. Most medication at best can be stored for up to a few years-often far less.

The outlook-for the moment-is dark.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 2:16am
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/coronavirus-the-decline-of-new-cases-continues-economic-ripples-begin-to-emerge.html

DJ-I think MoA is a bit optimistic on Chinese info. There must be such a chaos there-even with all the best will China is-at the moment-unable to provide realistic statistics.

Of course there are ways to stop the spread of the virus-that would indicate stop of all travel worldwide, stop of mass-meetings. So far governments have been running behind the facts.

People themselves may choose to be wiser-reduce contacts, travel to a minimum-use internet instead. Modern technology can be helpfull in limiting the spread of covid-19.

It looks like Singapore is also slowing down the spread-most likely also related to tropical weather. (There are cases-but most of them related to travel with China so imported.)

Travelreduction and warmer weather can be helpfull. (Daegu South Korea now around 10C/50F=good covid19 temperature)
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2020 at 10:34pm
Peak Prosperity https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWJBJq-tVsc;

Boy this is not good...

Covid-19 cases are leaping higher in disparate countries around the globe -- doubling overnight in South Korea, Italy and Iran.

New research continues to clarifying how *extremely* contagious this virus is (as the rash of worldwide infections confirms). It increasingly looks like the only hope countries have of containing covid-19 is to use the draconian mass quarantine efforts that China is enforcing on its populace.

Don't assume that can't happen where you live. It may be the only alternative for your government to pursue, which is why preparing now for self-isolation/home quarantine is extremely prudent.


DJ-I repeat that self isolation/home quarantine is now extremely prudent !
(But practical still impossible because people have jobs, school etc. so you have to make a choice here.)

DJ- In Dutch news a firm that did sell 2 million masks for 1.2 million € (Euro) turned out to be a fraud.https://nos.nl/artikel/2324114-nederlands-bedrijf-beticht-van-oplichting-bij-verkoop-mondkapjes-voor-china.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-deaths-outside-china-spike-who-team-visits-wuhan;

Summary:

South Korea reports 123 new cases, 1 new death
Italy announces 79 cases, declares "national emergency"; Nothern Italy put on lockdown.
Japan cases triple in a week to 121
Japan confirms "seriously ill" patient in Tokyo
Hubei reports daily numbers
Chinese scientists find virus in urine
Experts propose 27 day quarantine, say 14 days likely not long enough
Cases outside China go exponential
32 UK and European citizens arrive back in UK on evac flight
Outbreak reported in South Korean psychiatric ward
WHO team visits Wuhan; will give Monday press conference
Iran reports 10 new cases, deaths climb to 6
San Diego says 200 under 'medical observation'
Young woman infected five relatives without ever showing symptoms
South Korea cases surge 8-fold in 4 days to 433; country reports third death (DJ-at least not doubling per day any longer)

-Defcon-6 seems to be fitting-should have been done a few days back. But the picture I (DJ) am getting is that still most countries are in denial.

The way the US state department transported 300 passengers from the Diamond Princess-including 14 infected mixed with the other passengers and then released the uninfected (?) after arrival for home isolation (if I do get that correct), the 14 days quarantine-wich the CDC keeps using-28/30 days would be so much wiser-it looks like the US is still spreading the virus. Others not doing much better....

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/escobar-no-weapon-left-behind-american-hybrid-war-china

DJ-China was becoming the #1 economy in the world pushing the US to #2. Would that make the US use bio-weapons against China ? Possibly ?
I would go for 75% natural, 20% US bio weapon, 5% China bio-accident.

When China gets destabelized that much Xi may have to go. Most likely the army will take over. A change for the worse for the US relations with China, Russia, Iran.

Politicians can blame others for their own faillures. Blame the US for this virus outbreak because they can not get a grip on this disaster.
The French participated in the set-up of the Wuhan bio-research facility after the SARS outbreak. Maybe France and Russia might be willing to look in to how this outbreak could happen.
(If China sees it as a US bio-attack it is far worse than nuclear war. Russia-Iran-China will react by attacking the US (and NATO if need be) in any way they can. Recent developments in Syria, Libya were Turkey is asking the US for "help against Russia" could sign the US is planning to take over the Middle East, roll back Russia and China-go for regime change there and in Iran. We are awfully close to a very major multi-crisis, health, food, climate, war etc.)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ updated numbers

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/;

The number of reports from multiple different countries in the past 36 hours showing what is most likely community human to human spread of SARS-CoV-2 confirms fears that the virus is on its way to causing a pandemic
Prof. Dr. Benhur Lee, MD
Professor of Microbiology
Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (ISMMS)
Feb. 21, 2020

DJ-Some hospitals now already running out of masks is a very bad sign !
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2020 at 9:57pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuBB3GNGQIk
Peak Prosperity-The Coronavirus Is Swiftly Breaching Defenses Across The World

Things are now starting to get fast and furious. Outside of China, covid-19 is swiftly breaching defense lines all over the world.

Italy is suddenly in big trouble -- with the military being called in to enforce city quarantines. Iran, South Korea & Japan similarly find themselves overwhelmed as new cases continue to spread unabated.

And there are many other countries (including the US) whose low reported numbers just don't appear believable at this point. We may soon find out that there are many more infections worldwide than are currently understood.

As China, Italy, South Korea and a growing list of other countries are showing us, outbreaks can happen extremely fast, slamming the door shut on your window to prepare.

Which is why taking action now is critical -- because a gov't lockdown will likely catch you by surprise (armed troops, empty store shelves). After the moment it's implemented, you will have to make do with whatever measures you put in place beforehand.

Meanwhile we're being able to quantify the damage of the current shutdown of China's economy. China is responsible for nearly 30% of world's manufacturing, and it's estimated that at this point, global trade will take a hit of nearly $600 billion.

And it gets worse. Millions of Chinese firms are going bankrupt from lack of cash flows -- a national bailout by China's banks is likely needed to keep a huge part of its industry from vaporizing. One social front, we're hearing stories of families giving up babies they can no longer afford, as folks are becoming homeless due to lack of income.

This is likely a preview of what's to come for other countries hard hit by this virus.

This is why the downplaying to-date of the coronavirus by world authorities is so dangerous. The risk is real and the costs are high. The masses should be preparing now.

But until they are, we need to be ahead of the curve.

Latest numbers on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/coronavirus-panic-goes-global-skorea-warns-watershed-moment-italy-quarantines-12-towns

DJ-The financial markets will start to react-Peak Prosperity. Not only companies-first in China-will go "down" they will take the banking system with it. The financial infra-structure is the backbone of our "modern way of living"

Most likely healthcare will have difficulty in dealing with the first wave of this pandemic. Certainly in countries like the US were healthcare is "for the rich". (Most likely one of the reasons why testing for covid19 in the US is that bad.)

If the financial system breaks up healthcare ends....

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-threatens-drug-shortage-318c9e7b-5d92-4a5e-b992-2478023c6d01.html;

About 150 prescription drugs — including antibiotics, generics and some branded drugs without alternatives — are at risk of shortage if the coronavirus outbreak in China worsens, according to two sources familiar with a list of at-risk drugs compiled by the Food and Drug Administration.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 4:31am
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-plunge-gold-soars-covid-19-contagion-craters-complacency, https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/stock-futures-plummeting-worldwide

DJ-Central banks will try to slow down the fall of stocks etc. but there is a limit to what they can do. All kind of factories effected by no/limited supplies from China, South Korea, Japan, Italy. From cars, electronics to textiles...

With the further spread and new cases in China markets start to realize this will not be over soon. Iran must have may yet unidentified cases-with further spread on its way. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iranian-lawmaker-says-50-have-died-coronavirus-outbreak-qom Iraq is another country at war-with lots of refugees....

Medication will get effected around the globe. Flu season will become more deadly (with less antibiotics to deal with bacterial coinfections).

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://health.liveuamap.com/

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 9:59pm
DJ-Even with stories like https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-our-coronavirus-base-case-rapidly-shifting-bad-ugly and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ my (DJ) impression;

-the covid-19 seems to be limited to a handfull of countries; besides China, Iran, Italy, Japan and South Korea-the rest of cases seems to be travel related.

-Maybe the US, North Korea (Pakistan, India) has also more cases but are not reporting it.

For Europe-outside Italy-the "damage" may stay limited.

-March 1=sunday meteorologic begin of spring. Covid19 may not be at its "strongest" with higher temperatures.


-China seems to be restarting production. Most likely essentials go before "less important goods" with attemps to minimize risks for workers.
Basics for medication, anti-biotics may get resupplied-limiting further global damage.

-The world is in shock-reacting in the right way-less (air)travel, people taking more care for infections.

DJ-I may be overoptimistic for the moment but maybe we will get-for this part of the year-through the covid19 crisis.

A major concern can be political. If China believes it was attacked by a US bioweapon global relations are "gone".

Peak Prosperity is still in crisismode https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLYnomkC1fA;

OK...despite more worldwide infections than ever, the WHO has decided to stop using the (technically very accurate) term "pandemic" to describe covid-19, presumably because they don't want to scare folks.

The CDC is claiming that the US is not seeing "community level" spreading of the virus. But of course it isn't, because it's NOT testing at the community level. And only 3 US states currently have the capacity to run such tests, due to faulty kits being provided to the other states.

Then there's State Department's botched rescue of US citizens stuck on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, during which poor safety controls allowed 25 more folks to get infected on the flight back to the US.

And these are the authorities we're depending on??

China, meanwhile, is lowering response levels in several provinces, setting the stage for workers to head back to the factories. BUT...they've postponed the National People's Conference. So, it's still too serious for the the 'important' people to be in public, but the plebes have nothing to worry about??

China is facing a lose-lose decision: maintain their widespread quarantines to contain the virus, but kill their economy? Or send people back to work, and risk infecting millions more?

Today, the markets *finally* started to show concern for the hit global trade is taking from this growing crisis. If the euphoria pushing markets to new highs is dissipating, there is an awful lot of empty space below today's asset prices compared to their fundamentals-based valuations. Translation = the markets can fall a LOT farther from here.

DJ- "The markets" most likely will show reaction for the coming weeks. China's economy did get a blow. Supplychains did get damaged. People will think again before boarding a plane or a cruiseship.

But China restarting its economy may be a good sign unless this causes further outbreaks and workers start an uprising....
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:48pm
Peak Prosperity:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9V9_IuKnEdU;

As 19th century German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer claimed, “All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident.”

After weeks of denial, and attacks on voices like Peak Prosperity who dared question the "Everything is fine!" narrative, world governments and their mass media partners are finally admitting that the coronavirus threat is real and serious.

The pandemic continues to spread across the globe, interestingly, largely in the northern hemisphere at this time. This may suggest it could migrate south as fall/winter arrives there, possibly returning northwards when the seasons change again. Time will tell.

Meanwhile, the markets continue their sell-off as the economic damage from the impairment of Asian supply chains become more apparent. How much further can they fall? A LOT if the virus continues to rage on for months.

DJ-Zero Hedge has lots of corona-news from https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/south-korean-crisis-response-coordinator-commits-suicide-cases-near-1000-live-updates Most likely Brazil first case related to Italy ? Imported ?

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/mapping-coronavirus-middle-east-9-countries-hit-alarm-raised-over-vulnerable-refugee-camps
DJ-What makes Covid-19 in the Middle East interesting is will it spread in the warmth 30C /80F+ temperatures.

Also Peak Prosperity sometimes mentions relation between temperature and spread of the Covid19. My (DJ) idea is that in higher temperatures it will spread less, stop spreading even.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/grim-reality-about-pandemics-they-dont-want-you-know-no-country-prepared

Modern healthcare is high tech-planning running on statistics of what to expect under normal circumstances, in a normal situation-totally unable to deal with major outbreaks.

Of course https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may provide some good basic statistics. The US is criticizing China and Iran for giving incorrect numbers-while the US only did 400 tests themselves.
The "politicizing" by the US is not very helpfull. It only further feeds claims that this Covid-19 was a US bioweapon.

For the EU the situation may be different than the US/Canada. Public healthcare may be working better in the EU. Although Italy did not get a grip of the larger outbreak in time.

Also economy-wise we are less dependent of China for basic goods. There may be more balance in EU-China trade.

A new German case in a 47 year old man (most likely his wife is also infected) is close to the Dutch border. The man is in very serious condition, pneumonia. Has recent travelhistory to the Netherlands.

If this new German case is another "super spreader" we may have another serious "hot spot" in NW Europe.

Few good news items;
-warmer weather may be on its way for most of us on the northern half of the globe-most likely slowing down Covid19 (Wuhan-China may hit 18C sunday=60F)
-China may be able to restart production-if this does not mean large scale new infections it could limit economic damage.

Major bad news may be growing panic around the globe, bankruns, supermarkets running out of goods, (total politic malfunction-but I did not think that much of politics anyway.)
Covid-19 may worsen the situation in the Middle East. Iran and China are not able to do that much against the US and Israel. Escalation may be on its way.

The US Covid19 situation may be far worse than the CDC is willing to tell-for political (trump-reelection) and economy reasons. With that the US may be (again-like the Spanish flu) spreading Covid19 around the globe.
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:51pm
DJ, thanks as always for your informative postings!!  Clap
CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 1:33pm
The Dutch situation is giving reason for concern in my (DJ) opinion.

-Both the 47 year old man and 46 year old woman in Germany-close to the Dutch border have Covid-19 and were in the Netherlands februari wekend 8/9-man chemo treatment did show signs around feb 14.

The official line is that he only could start spreading the virus after showing first signs-that is not what I understand-they both may have spread the virus after getting infected-it is unclear were and when they got infected.

-Another "myth" is "when there was no contact with China you do not get tested for covid19. This far the Dutch CDC (RIVM) only tested 50 cases based on this guideline.

-The German man visited his local hospital, was seen by 10 nurses and 4 doctors (without protection) and only after it was found out he had Covid19 he was put in isolation and send to a specialized Dusseldorf hospital.

-His wife works in a kindergarten. Does Covid19 infect children-so they spread the virus without much symptoms themselves ?

-Another story is the Tenerife-island hotel case. Four Italians were found to be infected so all the 1000 guests had to stay on their room. They talk to each other via the balcony. Tomorrow the first 100 guests-who arrived after the four cases were discovered-will go home-"they can not be infected" is the official line.

Quarantine in the old days meant 40 days-not two weeks. There was a good reason for that-experience ! In my opinion "we" keep spreading the virus by not being strict.

-Economicly Dutch firms like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philips did loose 10% of stockmarket value, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France%E2%80%93KLM did even go 20% lower. First companies are sending people home from work-part time.

There is some limited panic but most Dutch trust government/health autorities/news.

We may be moving towards a larger outbreak in this region....
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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