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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 17 2020 at 9:36pm

DJ

[url]https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/new-strain-of-covid-19-in-uk-has-not-been-found-in-ireland-1.4437398[/url] or https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/new-strain-of-covid-19-in-uk-has-not-been-found-in-ireland-1.4437398 the new UK Covid20 (to call it that way -Virus Under Investigation VIU-2020.12.1 (december first one-also B.1.1.7. ????) was not found (yet-DJ) in Ireland "only in the UK and Denmark" (????) 

[url]https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857[/url] or https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4857 The UK form showed up end of september (!!!!!!) so far found in 1108 cases (dec 13) "but must be far more widespread"...20% in Norfolk, 10% in Essex, 3% in Suffolk at dec 15...(% of cases with VUI-2020.12.1)-also London must have a lot of (those) cases-DJ-It must be widespread also outside the UK. 

The picture I am getting is-increased risks of vaccines being less effective, reinfection. Much of Europe going on lockdown-due to increase of cases as well as Christmas/New Year less economic damage. But most likely there is widespread concern on the UK "variant"...

[url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/cbs-sterfte-blijft-hoog-in-tweede-golf-al-5300-meer-doden-dan-verwacht~ab563237/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/cbs-sterfte-blijft-hoog-in-tweede-golf-al-5300-meer-doden-dan-verwacht~ab563237/ Excess deaths in NL remains higher then expected. (Also in NL news-during spring a lot of old people (with Covid19-or other serious illness) did not go to ICU-died at their home (often with family/GP nearby-in that way better then in hospital). That avoided ICU capacity collapsing...we are getting close to hospitals/staff getting overstretched again..)

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ keep going up. Almost record number of new global cases (with UK number being high due to delay in reporting from Wales). Brazil, Germany also not doing well....The US had 250.000 new cases dec 16, 230.000 new cases dec 17...daily deaths over 3000. In cases per million the US is now at #8...(a lot of countries fail in testing).

With Christmas, New Year coming-schools/work reopening early january in a lot of places the outlook is bad. Vaccination may have started in many places but-at best-will bring down numbers in a few months. 

-Some more on the UK "variant"[url]https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/new-sars-cov-2-variant-spreading-rapidly-in-uk-68292[/url] or https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/new-sars-cov-2-variant-spreading-rapidly-in-uk-68292 and [url]https://wellcome.org/press-release/wellcome-statements-novel-coronavirus-covid-19[/url] or https://wellcome.org/press-release/wellcome-statements-novel-coronavirus-covid-19 and [url]https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/mutated-coronavirus-in-uk-implications-7109120/[/url] or https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/mutated-coronavirus-in-uk-implications-7109120/ (from India-worldwide the are looking at samples they have to see if it shows the UK mutations-so far only picked up in UK and Denmark. The "no panic" message is clear...statistics will show an increase of cases. With a lot of the world in lock down, but Christmas/New Year coming-those days will explain most of the increases. Sequencing of Covid19 samples-worldwide-may provide some answers...)

-Dr. John Campbell on vitamin D in UK [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwaq4oRnpjY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwaq4oRnpjY ;

 - DJ-The "Institute for Health and Care Excellence"in the UK came up with a "study" not enough proof for vitamin D protecting against Covid19-repeated a story from 1928..."more research (=funding=salary)"is needed...Univ.of South Australia (UnSoAu) did study on UK vitamin D deficiency...

 - UnSoAu did use info from [url]https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/[/url] or https://www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/ of over 440.000 people (most "White" but also "Asian", "Black", "Hispanic") and a very low level of Vitamin D (under that level there should not be any discussion...). In summer the problem is a bit smaller but severe shortage of vitamin D is widespread in the UK. Even in "white" people 17,5% in winter, 5,9% in summer are even under a very low Vitamin D level. "Ethnic groups" do even (far) worse...

 - "Poor"people do even worse...White skin adaptation when people moved north from Africa to get more vitamin D from sunshine. (In many countries fish is extra source for vitamin D).

 - UnSoAu; very strong link with low vitaminD and respitory infections/Covid19. Vitamin D supplements can offer protection...(no need for further research...funding). (DJ-I mentioned this before a few times-are we seeing "genocide by pandemic" ? Or is it political/ "experts" indifference ? Stupidity ? )

Dr. J.C. had to show how to download his book on a mobile phone by "the technical department-DJ-his wife ???." It is very nice he is offering this much info ! 

-A very short Daily Mail video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbWlyhkvv00[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbWlyhkvv00 -a virologist claiming the UK mutations are "only interesting for virologists" mutations make the virus less harmfull in general...DJ-Time will tell-a year ago first reports showed up in the west on a virus in China...(DJ-In NL we had at least five older people die "from an unknown respitory cause" before the first Covid19 case end of february..most likely to have been Covid19 not recognized at that time.) 

-[url]https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/27-billion-people-have-had-no-social-protection-cope-covid-19-economic-crisis[/url] or https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/27-billion-people-have-had-no-social-protection-cope-covid-19-economic-crisis ;

Overall, the world has spent an additional $11.7 trillion this year to cope with the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. Of this, $9.8 trillion (83%) was spent by 36 rich countries against just $42 billion (0.4%) in 59 low-income countries. 

To make matters worse, rich countries have only increased their aid to developing countries for social protection by $5.8 billion – the equivalent of less than five cents for every $100 raised to tackle Covid-19. 

DJ-In our deeply unequal world, millions of people are living in, and dying from, hunger every year. The coronavirus has added fuel to the fire of this growing food crisis. If we don't act now, up to 12,000 people per day could die from hunger driven by the pandemic before the end of the year. (from their front page-indirect Covid deaths can explode..)

Music ! 1951 first (?) rock'n roll song [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbfnh1oVTk0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gbfnh1oVTk0 "Rocket 88" - Ike Turner/Jackie Brenston (put speed at 1,25 !) (by the way-it is the Ike Turner that got married to Tina (then Ann Bullock) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ike_Turner[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ike_Turner Mariage 1962-78 drugproblems ended mariage. Ike Turner died december 12- 2007)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 18 2020 at 10:01pm

DJ

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ of december 18 are not recordbreaking-but close to it-worldwide. For the US over 254,000 new cases is another sad record.  It is also over 1/3 of the total almost 717,000 global new cases. In new cases (3), new deaths (2) Germany is "getting on top of things". Brazil also again high numbers-even with limited testing...

For what it is worth, India passed the 10 million cases. Peru and Ukraine will get over the 1 million cases next week-by then 17 countries will have tested/reported over 1 million cases. The real number of cases could be 10% of the global population ? With "case" meaning having had a Covid19 infection (this year). 

The last two weeks of this year will see limited reporting-a lot of spread. The effect of lockdowns-often some opening during Christmas-will be unclear. There will be more social activity at Christmas, New Years Eve. In a lot of places schools will not open in early january. (If there shows up a lot of new cases early january NPI/lockdowns may last longer in most places.)

-Dr.John Campbell with his update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psmd1atx05M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psmd1atx05M ;

 -He also takes a look at the numbers-going up al over the place. Sad to see new cases in Australia. (DJ-Statistics is a way to get a view on how the pandemic is developing. One may forget that behind those numbers are real people, real suffering...How to get people to accept a lockdown is getting harder and harder-if not impossible. I think news on vaccines did give people a false sense of safety. Communications are essential-but failling in most places by now. Hospital/healthcare is getting more and more close to collapse...)

 -US-CDC statistics running at least 24 hrs behind reality. California "epicenter"-with over 100.000 cases per 2 days. (DJ [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ California may go over 2 million cases-on a population of just under 40 million. Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois all see high numbers-so widespread all over the US.) Hospitalcare is running out, vaccines will not make any difference in the short term (DJ-Make things worse-people stop protecting themselves believing herd immunity/vaccines will give some safety). Number of fatalities will increase..

(DJ-The California scenario can be waiting for a lot of places-all over the globe.)

 -In US prisons over 275.000 cases, at least 1700 deaths-at least 20 of prisoners infected. DJ-The US has over 2 million people in prison-on a population of around 330 million. That number in itself is shocking ! Worldwide some statistics give 8 million in prison worldwide-of them over 25% in US prisons...No/limited testing, treatment. A lot of people die in US prisons not showing up in Covid statistics. Totally unacceptable ! If the US wants to have any say on "human rights" it has to look at itself first...(a civilized country does not have the deathpenalty-certainly locking people up for sometimes decades before killing them is cruel and insane. The US ends up at the same list as Saudi "chop-chop" Arabia, "hanging" Iran or "bam-bam"China...murdering people via injection is even more sick..)

 -UK-20% of population mix in (other) households, 1 in 95 UK citizens infected. (DJ With over 1977,000 cases on a population of just over 68 million the TOTAL number is even far worse.)

DJ-A big question in many countries-you know (some) people will visit others during Christmas. You can give room for it or say it is not allowed...as a government there are limits. 

I was hoping for some good news on the new UK-Covid20 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark/page2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark/page2 ; Boris Johnson was last night in emergency talks over travel curbs for London and the South East which could be announced today.

The emergency meeting came as medics issued a chilling warning that the new virus strain is 50 per cent more contagious than previous Covid-19 cases.

DJ-This news is from media, not scientists. It would explain the sharp increase of cases-since the UK "form" may be global by now. The rise in cases is hard to explain by "more shopping because it is december". For healthcare the "black scenario's/triage" will get reality in january. A lot of people will not get the best of care...

If PP/CM is correct-Ivermectin (or HCQ) being effective-why it is not used that often ? If it is that effective it would show in countries like India where it is used more often. 

For the US [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/100-of-california-election-ballots-illegal-all-55-electors-for-biden-cannot-be-counted[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/100-of-california-election-ballots-illegal-all-55-electors-for-biden-cannot-be-counted the political crisis will be over "when it is over"...

Here in NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/18/dutch-coronavirus-average-tops-10k-covid-icu-admits-45-days[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/18/dutch-coronavirus-average-tops-10k-covid-icu-admits-45-days 

Music; the "roots of rock'n roll" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_lqJk5JzeA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_lqJk5JzeA 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2020 at 9:43am

Josh, I wouldn't give too much credence to the things Hal Turner says in that link.  The attitude of most Americans is either that Biden won fair and square, or that the election was stolen from Trump, and there like!y isn't anything to be done about it.  In around 60 cases now, legal briefs have been filed, contesting the election results in various states, and all but one or two of these cases have been dismissed for lack of evidence.  The courts can find absolutely no merit to these cases.  So one of two things is going on here -- either Biden legitimately won this election, or there is a vast left-wing conspiracy to install him that even the courts are participating in, in which case, the result is the same -- Biden won, and will take office January 20.  Things here are not as stable as we'd like them to be, but a lot more stable than the way Turner characterizes them, and correcting that impression is my concern here.

I have nothing but respect for you, Josh, but I have less than no respect for Turner, and this is why: https://www.splcenter.org/fighting-hate/extremist-files/individual/hal-turner

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2020 at 1:16pm

ViQueen24, let me (DJ) be clear on Hal Turner-I think he is "a bit crazy", using some of his info does not mean I agree with his extreme visions/ideas. In most countries HT would be "corrected". For me-from NL-it is hard to see how "some developments in the US unfold". HT was not the only one reporting on the Pentagon stopping briefing the Biden team. 

I do not doubt Biden did get more votes. In a healthy democracy there would not be any doubt of who would be the next US President. I doubt the US has a healthy democracy...

HT comes with a story California voting forms are not according the US constitution...most likely it is non sense-but could in part explain why the US cases are this bad. 

-[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/19/uk/christmas-covid-strain-restrictions-intl-gbr/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/19/uk/christmas-covid-strain-restrictions-intl-gbr/index.html may be another reason-did the "UK new form of Covid" arrive (or start ?) in the US ???

The PM broke the news that London, and large parts of southern and eastern England, where cases are surging, will enter Tier 4 restrictions, similar to a lockdown, on Sunday.
"The spread is being driven by the new variant of the virus," Johnson said in a hastily called press conference. "It appears to spread more easily and may be up to 70% more transmissable than the earlier strain."

-

"In order to reduce the risk of more of the coronavirus strain being imported into Scotland, we intend to maintain a strict travel ban between Scotland and the rest of the UK," Sturgeon said.

DJ-Unseen restrictions !

According to Whitty, the new variant is responsible for 60% of infections in London, which have nearly doubled in the last week.
Earlier, he said "urgent work" is underway to establish whether the new strain, prevalent in the southeast of England, can cause a higher mortality rate.
"There is no current evidence to suggest the new strain causes a higher mortality rate or that it affects vaccines and treatments although urgent work is underway to confirm this," Whitty said in a statement.

DJ-Even if the new form of the virus itself does not bring more severe disease-increasing numbers mean more severe cases/deaths since hospitalcare may get overstretched. I would not be surprised if this "new form" becomes the dominant global virus. 

Only very strictlonger-NPI/lockdowns can slow down the (increased) spread...

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-reports-near-record-jump-covid-cases-india-tops-10mm-live-updates[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-reports-near-record-jump-covid-cases-india-tops-10mm-live-updates

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2020 at 3:34pm

I hear you, Josh, and I can see that it would be hard to see how events here unfold.  That is why I wrote what I did.  I feel Hal Turner is misrepresenting how things are here in the States.

Polls indicate that most Democrats feel that Joe Biden legitimately won this election, and that about 70% of Republicans feel that there was cheating or some kind of malfeasance.  A small percentage of those will probably never recognize Biden as the legitimate president, but most Americans would like to move on toward getting back to life as close to the way we used to know it as quickly as possible.  Most seem to recognize that includes a Biden presidency.

I agree with you there is concern for the state of American democracy.  There is something that drew those that voted for Trump to do so in 2016 spite of a lot of red flags about him: bankruptcies, infidelities, divorces, lawsuits, and his words and conduct during the campaign. Something that persuaded folks to vote for him again in 2020 in spite of his impeachment, the drama, chaos and firings inside his administration, and his total mishandling of the pandemic. Americans definitely owe it to ourselves to address that, otherwise we are hanging out a welcome mat for a redux starring Trump again or a similar Paranoid Narcissist in the future.

As to why the US Covid cases are so high, this may be part of the  problem:  https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/trump-appointee-demanded-herd-immunity-strategy-446408

But a lot of it is just that some folks here think it is their right to not mask, not social distance and not stay home when they should.  It's all about their rights, and not the corresponding rights of others to stay alive, healthy and not infected. Tabitha has written very eloquently about American attitude in Indoor dining where I live under General Discussion.

I do value your Scenarios very much though, Josh, because it gives a window into the rest of the world that we are sometimes very short on here in the US.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 19 2020 at 9:52pm

DJ

-ViQueen24 is asking me a question I do ask myself also quite often-why do I keep posting links to [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/ . In many ways he is showing himself "a bit of the rails" Keeping an eye on people with who you disagree may be also part of it. In the past I think HT did have "interesting links"on US foreign policy MSM ignores..People like him could, by accident maybe-also report on major pandemic developments..In the past I had sometimes posted links from Veterans Today-a bit similar-they did have questions on weapons being used in the Middle East-main media often ignores those questions. 

-The UK "mutation"-[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51768274 is putting the UK in a very strict lockdown. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark/page2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark/page2 has already more info then the BBC. 

I noticed the UK PM "BoJo" (Boris Johnson) several times using the phrase "there is no evidence"-not for more severe cases, outcome, vaccines not working...This pandemic has shown (bad)"news is often sugar coated". A sharp increase in cases IS causing more severe cases and deaths in itself-hospital care is unable to deal with such sharp increases. 

"Alternative media" may be sometimes closer to reality then the Main Stream Media (MSM). 

-So far in reporting I did find a (UK) claim the "new UK virus" showed up in the UK and Denmark. Our NL government now also claims the virus showed up in NL.Cases going up in NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/19/12028-new-covid-19-cases-pushes-weekly-average-nearly-10500-new-record[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/19/12028-new-covid-19-cases-pushes-weekly-average-nearly-10500-new-record . (No mention yet of the new UK-form). Airtraffic between NL and the UK is stopped from 06 hrs NL-time today till 1-1-2021. [url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/the-netherlands-bans-flights-from-uk-to-keep-out-new-coronavirus-strain/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/12/the-netherlands-bans-flights-from-uk-to-keep-out-new-coronavirus-strain/;

The new variant of the virus has already been identified in the Netherlands and officials are now trying to trace carriers and to determine how they became infected. ‘Over the next few days, together with other EU member states, the Netherlands will explore the scope for further limiting the risk of the new strain of the virus being brought over from the UK,’ the government statement said. ‘The government wishes to emphasise once again that travelling abroad carries a substantial risk of spreading coronavirus. Do not travel unless it is absolutely essential.’

[url]https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2020/12/20/restrictions-on-travel-from-the-united-kingdom[/url] or https://www.government.nl/latest/news/2020/12/20/restrictions-on-travel-from-the-united-kingdom :

Sampling of a case in the Netherlands in early December revealed the same virus strain as that observed in the UK.

(DJ-Today is december 20-if the UK Covid20 showed up in NL "early december" and spreads 70% faster the Covid19 variant it must be widespread-in Europe/the World..)

In Australia [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-55378180[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-55378180 could it be the new-much faster growing-"UK variant" as well ? 

The "UK Covid20" (official Virus Under Investigation-VIU 2020-12-01 Year-month-number) is showing up most in London and parts close to Europe. It may have been around since end of september (!!!!) was found via a government monitoring programm. In some of the news part of the (at least 17 ?) mutations were linked to mutation also found in minks. The UK itself stopped mink farming in 2000-but some may be living in the wild. 

DJ-This VIU-2020-12-01 story keeps getting worse-it is showing to be more then "only interesting for virologists"if BoJo has to make a U-turn on Christmas-shut down the economy almost a 100% (with Brexit-talks with the EU going very difficult). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may soon start showing a further increase of cases-worldwide-with a lot of countries already in lockdowns (very likely to get even stricter). This UK CoViD-20 (COrona VIrus Disease) still see numbers going up...

-Dr John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGQKAvsnISg&t=22s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGQKAvsnISg&t=22s has "Excellent news" on the vaccines...(info under his video) reality is that with- in a bad scenario-cases exploding (spreading up to 70% faster) we may need strict long term lockdowns for months to get a grip on this pandemic. 

Even countries like Australia, South Korea-that did very good-now report a growing number of (very likely UK Covid20-my DJ-name) cases...

(Zero Hedge is also publishing a lot of non-sense. I-DJ-do most of the times not-fully-agree with some of the sources. With "DJ" I hope to make clear I add my own opinion. ) [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-reports-near-record-jump-covid-cases-india-tops-10mm-live-updates[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-reports-near-record-jump-covid-cases-india-tops-10mm-live-updates 

Most readers of this forum are clever enough to get the message "try to avoid social contacts as much as possible". Social distancing did show to be the best protection-with modern media offering "on distance contact". We may not be out of this pandemic for months...one can/should "emotionally" prepare for that. I think honest information is the start of good communications. (And I try to do my bit...) 

Weather

[url]https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/white-christmas-forecast-cold-outreak-mk/[/url] or https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/white-christmas-forecast-cold-outreak-mk/ winter-weather and a pandemic are a bad mix.

Music; Golden Earrings- I've just lost somebody [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUsY9A4HLOA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUsY9A4HLOA  1968

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2020 at 3:00am

DJ

-After NL stopping all airtravel to/from the UK till january 1, Belgium is stopping train/air travel between the UK and Belgium. It is very likely ALL air travel from the UK to most of the world (except the US, Brazil ?) will stop within hours. 

-[url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/20/coronavirus-live-news-nsw-premier-to-provide-update-on-sydney-restrictions-as-northern-beaches-locked-down-uk-tightens-christmas-rules[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/dec/20/coronavirus-live-news-nsw-premier-to-provide-update-on-sydney-restrictions-as-northern-beaches-locked-down-uk-tightens-christmas-rules 

-[url]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-news-update-tier-4-cases-b1776719.html[/url] or https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-uk-news-update-tier-4-cases-b1776719.html ;

Restrictions that cancelled Christmas for millions of people across the UK may have to remain for “the next couple of months”, the health secretary has suggested.

Matt Hancock warned that keeping the new coronavirus variant under control until a vaccine has been rolled out will be “very difficult”.

“We’ve got to get this under control and the cases in tier 4 areas have absolutely rocketed in the last two weeks or so,”

DJ-[url]https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home#:~:text=If%20you%20live%20in%20a,one%20person%20from%20another%20household.[/url] or https://www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home#:~:text=If%20you%20live%20in%20a,one%20person%20from%20another%20household. 

-[url]https://www.rt.com/uk/510227-lockdown-exodus-station-video/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/uk/510227-lockdown-exodus-station-video/Londoners took PM Boris Johnson’s announcement of a Covid-19 lockdown for the Christmas holiday as their cue to flee London, in doing so, perhaps achieving exactly the opposite of the latest efforts to contain the virus.

-[url]https://www.dw.com/en/germany-monthly-covid-death-toll-set-to-double-in-december/a-56000364[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/germany-monthly-covid-death-toll-set-to-double-in-december/a-56000364 

-[url]https://www.dw.com/en/romania-ravaged-by-covid-as-its-doctors-work-abroad/a-55993954[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/romania-ravaged-by-covid-as-its-doctors-work-abroad/a-55993954

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-new-covid-19-variant-identified-in-sa-south-africa#post901917[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-new-covid-19-variant-identified-in-sa-south-africa#post901917

-[url]https://www.africanews.com/2020/12/19/mali-goes-into-lockdown-to-fight-the-covid-19-pandemic/[/url] or https://www.africanews.com/2020/12/19/mali-goes-into-lockdown-to-fight-the-covid-19-pandemic/ 

DJ-It looks like new "variants" of Covid19 separately developed both in the UK and South Africa in the last few months. They both seem to spread easier and faster-may be widespread by now. 

Coming days there most likely will be much more news on the (global, economic, social) effects.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2020 at 1:34pm

DJ

-Today the UK reported over 35.000 new cases, NL had over 13.000 new cases-allthough the "official story" is in NL only one person had the UK form of Covid19. That person had the UK virus early december...it is very likely much more people already have the "UK Covid20" in NL. 

Travelrestrictions go up-Turkey banning all flights from the UK, NL, DK (Denmark) and SA (South Africa). Most likely our government "does not want to know" how widespread the UK form is in the NL out of fear borders will close. Italy, Denmark, Australia did officialy report cases.

-Dr John Campbell repeating the official UK information [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MINIibH2Iaw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MINIibH2Iaw . The new virusses "are not proven to be more dangerous"then the old Covid19, vaccines will keep working etc...it is also not proven they pose the same risk. "Experts" going for panic-control when viruscontrol is failing. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark-netherlands-germany-france-implement-consider-uk-air-travel-ban/page3[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark-netherlands-germany-france-implement-consider-uk-air-travel-ban/page3 UK

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020#post901917[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901816-south-africa-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-december-18-2020#post901917 SA

DJ-The SA variant seems to be spreading more in young people. Now does South Africa have a younger population-and it is summer there. A lockdown will not work if there is no other income...

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cdc-issues-new-guidelines-launches-probe-after-1000s-negatively-affected-following-covid[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cdc-issues-new-guidelines-launches-probe-after-1000s-negatively-affected-following-covid In the US 3150 people had serious health problems after getting the Pfizer vaccine out of a group of 272,001 people getting vaccinated. Over 1% may be a bit high-so the CDC will make new guidelines. That there are some complications should not come as a surprise-but still not good news.

DJ-"Act as if you had Covid" is the UK official rule-stay at home, avoid contacts outside the bubble-for months-it looks like. The hope is vaccinations can help.

It is very likely vaccinations may have some effect-but there is a limit in the number of available vaccines. The further away-especialy on the receptor binding domain-(linking the virus to the cell during infection) the greater the risk of vaccines getting "less effective" or people getting reinfected. 

If Ivermectin can avoid infection/getting ill-it would be wise to start using it. People may be willing to lock themselves up-again-for some days-not for months. 

Outside the UK monitoring has to improve. The new "variants" from the UK AND SA will be much more widespread. Governments may not be that ready for detecting the UK / SA variants if it only means less international trade. Also testing/contact tracing-even limited-has to go on. 

The economic damage is gigantic...the UK/EU Brexit talks are at breaking point-a "hard Brexit" starts january 1-2021. I (DJ) expect a lot of countries will go for even stricter rules...to at least try to get some grip on the spread. 

Music-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ6kJ7GWtv0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJ6kJ7GWtv0 "Lonely this Christmas"-Mud 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2020 at 3:29pm

I feel besides the Electoral College having declared Joe Biden our next President, and the course of Covid, this is the other most important story coming out of the US right now:  https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/covid-relief-checks-mitch-mcconnell-pelosi-b1775868.html  and https://www.aol.com/democratic-republican-leaders-reach-900-225623149.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 20 2020 at 9:30pm

DJ

-ViQueen24-politicians somehow think it is all about them. Political parties as a cult-living in their own bubble-reality free. It is not only a problem in the US-very sad to say it is (I-DJ-think) widespread in the western world. Dissatisfaction giving rise to yellow vests in France-and other countries, "Alternative" for Germany, UKIP, we have our own political sociopaths in NL as well...

Politics has failed in this pandemic. First by not acting in time to stop it. Then not acting in time to deal with economic damages...

The idea of "herd immunity" often mixed with "summer will save us" was political cherry picking from expert views. Use what fits your political story, ignore the rest. If it does not work-blame the experts...

Tell the public to stop everything, then reopen-then blame them for spreading the virus. With some luck a lot of people will accept that ....In NL our failing government did score in public opinion polls for "they way they managed the crisis". In fact they made it worse but convinced the public that they-the government-were not to blame...

-The [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark-netherlands-italy-belgium-ireland-germany-france-implement-consider-uk-air-travel-ban/page3[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-wales-scotland-denmark-netherlands-italy-belgium-ireland-germany-france-implement-consider-uk-air-travel-ban/page3 UK link reporting :

-More countries closing borders with UK (that will give logistics problem very soon-the tunnel, ferries also closed/stopped)

-More countries reporting their own UK Covid20 cases (DJ-The WHO goes over names-for now it is Virus Under Investigation 2020.12.1)

-The rest of the UK-not yet under "tier4" lockdown soon will be-there is no way of stopping the (new) virus (form) now..

-The rest of the world can expect a sharp increase of cases. The only reason there is limited reporting of found cases there is monitoring may be even worse then in the UK...

DJ-This mutated form has been around for months !!!!! It showed up end of september-had all the chance to spread...did nobody feel responsible to stop it ? Here in NL in early december a (no doubt UK travel history) case was found-did that not make alarmbells ring ????

Now closing borders is a bit late, symbolic...(If there are now TWO new variations showing up-how many are still not detected ? How many are about to show up ? It is very unlikely it will stay with these two "variations".)

On the South African-different-mutation no further news...must also be widespread by now. "The good news is there is hardly any testing so there will be not a lot of cases reported..." In the world of Dr. John Campbell it may indicate the virus is not there...(DJ-Dr.J.C. is very friendly, giving a lot of usefull info-but if there "is no proof it is not there" makes you running behind the facts...!)

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ sunday december 20 numbers..

The US over 1/3 of all new cases, about 20% of all deaths...DJ-Yes there are lockdowns in most of Europe-and yes still a lot of people try to "escape" from the rules. Do we do that much better here then in the US-I doubt it...

The number of cases will go up dramaticly-if testing/reporting can deal with the increases. The number of deaths will go up even faster-in most places hospitals/ICU/staff are on/over their limits already. If there was no-covid care that will decrease-giving more non-covid fatalities..(and yes-I am "speculating" because some developments in my opinion are "open doors"). 

What to do ?

-Strict NPI/social distancing (one "story" on the new UK virus is that it may spread more easily-masks have limited value. If the new virus is smaller more particles may pass the masks. They also may reach further-so 1,5/2 meter distance will be less effective.)

-Very clear communications-YES-there is a new form of the virus, YES you can do something about it-distance, masks, no contact at all...

(DJ-Here in NL people are "asked"to work from home-if the employer demands you go to the office you still may lose your job if you refuse..quarantine is still "an advice", limiting churches etc is not mandatory...there is no room for that !)

-More monitoring, increase testing (here in NL still testing is limited-symptoms or if you had a contact with someone with symptoms-a/pre symptomatic spread in a lot of places is practicly ignored..)

-Increase vaccinations-they may slow down the spread (I hope...)

It would be a miracle if we could slow down spread with Christmas and New Years Eve...most likely those days will see a lot of spread-very likely a lot of them already from the new UK form. (The statistics-if avaliable-are days old. The UK form spreads 70% faster...).

-Here in the NL the "Outbreak Management Team" will meet to discuss further actions. I would not be surprised if carecenters will go in a "lockdown" for two weeks-no visitors, people inside have to stay inside (even more strict rules on staff). 

-The EU also will have an urgent telemeeting on how to stop/slow down the spread of the UK variant. I would not be surprised to see a two week closing of a lot of borders/strong travel restrictions here as well...(They may use the UK "variant"in Brexit talks..to increase pressure. UK is outside the EU per 1.1.2021).

-With very limited vaccines-and a lot of people not willing to accept them-it may be time to see what Ivermectin can mean. (Like studies in Latin America-spread Ivermectin widely-it may limit damage.)

DJ-No musicclip but a historyclip [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Br-FGIkK9k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Br-FGIkK9k "The Siege of Leningrad"-lasting 872 days (1941-44). Of the six million people living in that city, two million were evacuated over a frozen lake, two million survived-worked in factories when possible-the other two million died...

A pandemic is not a "joke". History has showed you have to take these mass killers very serious. We may now get into "phase two" of this pandemic. The real number of deaths-this year-must already be in the millions worldwide. It is not very realistic to expect vaccines will end this pandemic in "just a few months"...We will be very lucky if Christmas 2021 will be a "more normal one". 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 21 2020 at 10:25pm

DJ

-A look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; In new cases UK is second with over 33,000 new cases. The monday december 21 numbers reflect sunday-limited reporting. Still a total of over 534.000 cases with just over 200.000 of them from the US. South Africa-with very limited testing-is at #12 in the new cases list.

In new reported deaths the US is at #11-but if cases are exploding this much it soon will be in a "higher" postion. South Africa is at #10...

Looking at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ ; The UK had its highest number of reported/tested new cases december 20, almost 36,000 new cases. I expect those numbers to go up. In deaths record numbers are still in spring for the UK-also that soon will change. A strict lockdown (with a super spread event just before going into "tier-4"-full lockdown and borders closing) may bring a bit of a decrease in cases...Christmas, New Years Eve still will see increased spread.

-Lots of info [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk-crisis-meeting-in-london-and-brussels-dec-21-2020/page4[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-2020-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk-crisis-meeting-in-london-and-brussels-dec-21-2020/page4 ;

 -New UK variant infects more children

 -If the US does not stop UK flights should EU stop US flights ? 

 -Cluster may have started in a person with immuno-suppressents getting a "chronic"Covid19 infection producing a list of mutations

 -Allthough the virus-mutation showed up in samples going back till late september-the major spread event started mid november

DJ-Also in the news BionTech topman (producing with Pfizer the now most used vaccine) thinks this vaccine also will offer protection against this UK variant. He will have the study on it in two weeks-it is possible to change the vaccine to deal with more mutations if needed. The Pfizer/BionTech (US/Germany) vaccine was tested on a number of variations of Covid19-so it should offer protection.

-Dr John Campbell has been "very productive" 3 video's;

1. On DW (Deutsche Welle) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCyX-WKPT7M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCyX-WKPT7M ;

DJ-Pictures of very crowded trainstations, airports...a lot of people trying to get out of the UK. (UK citizens still are able to get into the UK-planes then return empty or with goods (a.o. medication) from the UK. ) Dr.J.C. experts agree the new form is more infectious.

2 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DT-b-BVLJrw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DT-b-BVLJrw update;

-The EMA approved Pfizer/Biontech vaccine for the EU (under German, Spanish pressure). It will take some time before vaccines have effect (DJ-After first vaccination 55% protection-after second vaccination-3 (or 4 ?) weeks later 100% protection is the claim. There is some discussion on going for massive first vaccinations-to at least get some group effect. (A 55% protection for double the group may be better then 50% getting 100% protection and another 50% not getting any protection. The succesrate-claim is 94,5% effective so "100% protection" may still see over 5% of vaccinated people getting infected.)

-Dr.J.C. If we had closed our borders in february there would not have been a pandemic...Borders may reopen for truckdrivers if testing capacity is ready. (DJ-I can imagine also people in the UK willing to go (back) to other countries may be allowed after testing as well-within days.)

-DJ-Good story on mutations/changes. This virus is a long RNA string-over 32,000 positions. In this UK variant there were 17 changes (out of the over 32,000). The major change was at position 501-because there is a "connection part"/receptor binding to human cells. But part of the 17 "changes"is also a few parts gone away..

Where it started is not known-first one detected must have been in Kent UK september 20. At first not very active. But in november 25% of London-UK cases had this mutation, in december over 60%..so it spreads more easy-and therefor becomes more dominant. 

-This mutation showed up in a.o. NL, Denmark, Australia, Italy, Brazil most likely allready many places...DJ-I expect stricter rules in other countries as well-or are they going to wait till it gets out of control after Christmas, New Year ????

-Dr.J.C. Covid19 mutates once/twice a month, flu-virus one time per week, HIV mutates up to three times a week, that is why finding a vaccine against HIV is that hard. Covid19 has seen over 12.000 mutations..(DJ-The more a virus is spread the more the virus gets chances to make mistakes in roproducing itself=mutation/changes. If that virus also manages to get into different species-minks, cats, it may even mutate more. Then also "vaccine pressure" can increase mutations...)

-Dr.J.C. chances for reinfection by this new variant seem very limited. Still the R0 could go up by 0,4 to-some experts claim-0,9 (and DJ-that is alarming-the problem may be in the number of cases not on if you get more ill. Dr.J.C. does not mention age groups-again-there are some claims younger age groups may catch tis virus more easily..)

-Mink-link; both in this UK variant and mink position 69 and 70 were depleted-parts just went missing. Still in mink also changes at position 453, 692 and 1229 that do not show up in the UK variant. 

-UK numbers going up..most in places with the new UK variant-London, Wales Over 18.000 patients now in hospital..

-Compensation to increased spread is more NPI-social distancing, washing hands, masks, ventilation etc.

3[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BJQZ28PgiQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BJQZ28PgiQ US update

-Strong upward trends (in CDC statistics on one day over 400.000 new cases-most likely a correction)-increas of 9 to 10% per week

-Over 84 million people "on the move"in the US for Christmas/New Year; Dr.J.C. a form of suicide. Transport Safety testing over 1 million passengers per day on US airports, UK flights still coming in...

-Moderna vaccination starting at 4000 locations in the US (next to Pfizer/Biontech) - first group vaccinated will be care workers. Moderna has more workable--20C storage temperatures. Vaccination only will offer some protection after several days...

-Dr.J.C. mentions increases in Tennessee (no masks mandatory, up to 10 persons in a room is Okay..) California/LA hospitalcare at breaking point...with this amount of travel, basicly in many places no rules, import of UK-variant (DJ-with dozens of flights per day !!) there will be a surge of cases in january...

DJ [url]https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/white-christmas-united-states-arctic-blast-forecast-mk/[/url] or https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/white-christmas-united-states-arctic-blast-forecast-mk/ winterweather will make vaccine logistics in the US harder...more people getting indoors, less ventilation...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ DJ-I do mention often in statistics the US is doing "not very well". The cause of the high number of cases is a mix of "misunderstood freedoms" (versus responsibilities towards the community), a lack of political will, coordination. Does the US test for "variations" of the Covid19 virus ? (in the deaths per million-New Jersey reporting 0,2% of its population died of Covid19, New York 0,188%...)

Will the EU stop all flights to the US ? And further damage "privatized national airlines" in wich often states did buy shares to save them ? I (DJ) did ask many times for stopping international travel-we may-finally-get close to that point ? 

I did not see a new Peak Prosperity video..Chris Martenson may have a point in promoting Ivermectin (and HCQ ???) if so some countries will use those medications even more-since they do not have money for "Big Pharma (for profit) solutions"..

Music-We have entered "the age of Aquarius" some inspiration from [url]https://www.facebook.com/pepe.escobar.77377[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/pepe.escobar.77377  Steppenwolf-Jupiters Child 1969 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6etwZzv4rQ0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6etwZzv4rQ0 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2020 at 2:22am

DJ 

-Antarctica has it first Covid cases [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Antarctica[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Antarctica and [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/covid-cases-recorded-in-antarctica-for-first-time[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/covid-cases-recorded-in-antarctica-for-first-time ;

Antarctica, once the only continent not to be affected by the coronavirus pandemic, has reportedly recorded its first cases. The 36 new infections are among people stationed at a Chilean research base and include 26 members of the Chilean army and 10 maintenance workers.

DJ-All reported cases now back in Chile

-[url]https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/further-research-needed-to-determine-whether-new-coronavirus-variant-in-sa-is-more-deadly-who/[/url] or https://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/further-research-needed-to-determine-whether-new-coronavirus-variant-in-sa-is-more-deadly-who/ ;

The World Health Organisation (WHO) says the mutation of the coronavirus in the United Kingdom and South Africa is not unexpected and more research needs to be conducted to determine whether they can cause severe disease or mortality.

The UK is battling to contain a new variant of the virus, which is more contagious, much like the one that has emerged in South Africa.

Many countries have already implemented travel bans for both countries.

DJ -I have to look if the UK variant also showed up in South Africa, [url]https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/supercharged-mutant-coronavirus-detected-brazil-23200436[/url] or https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/supercharged-mutant-coronavirus-detected-brazil-23200436 ;

Covid-19 mutation that is thought to have "supercharged" a new and highly-infectious variant of the virus in the UK was first detected in Brazil in the spring, say scientists.

Studies show the new variant, known as a N501Y mutation, was circulating in the South American country in April, in Australia between June and July, and in the US in July.


Up to 70 per cent more transmissible, the new variant is spreading rapidly in London and the South East, triggering Tier 4 lockdown restrictions in England and alarm across the world as countries such as France and India ban flights to and from the UK.

It may infect children slightly more effectively than the previous variants, say experts.

DJ-The "501 mutation" seems to occur quite often-if this is the same mutation now widespread in the UK is stil open. 

-[url]https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-more-countries-detect-mutated-uk-coronavirus-strain/a-56009203[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/covid-19-more-countries-detect-mutated-uk-coronavirus-strain/a-56009203 ;

Several European countries and Australia have detected the new, faster-spreading strain of COVID-19. In South Africa, authorities believe that a new strain detected there is not the same as the one in the UK.

The ECDC said a few cases with the new variant have been detected in Iceland, Denmark and the Netherlands. The agency also cited media reports confirming cases in Belgium and Italy. 

Dr. John Campbell, an independent health analyst based in the UK, told DW that although news about the strain only erupted over the weekend, it was first identified in "late September" in the county of Kent in England.  

"Because it's been around since September, there's also potential, that it already is in European countries," Campbell said. "It does appear to be more infectious in terms of correlation, because the areas where the infection has been increasing most dramatically is also the areas where the highest incidence of this mutation has been picked up." 

Australia detects strain 

But it has also been confirmed as far as Australia, which said on Monday it had detected cases of the new fast-spreading UK strain. 

Two travelers from the UK to Australia's New South Wales state are said to have been found carrying the mutated variant. Both individuals have been placed in hotel quarantine. 

Australia has seen cases in Sydney rise in recent days, but authorities don’t believe the rise in infections comes from the newly detected mutation. 

South African mutation is different

Over the weekend, travel bans were also imposed on South Africa, as it was believed that the UK strain was also found there. 

But South African health officials and scientists leading the country's virus strategy, the new variant, known as 501.V2, was different from the one in the UK. 

Nonetheless, like in Britain, officials have said that the mutation was driving the country's resurgence of the disease, with higher numbers of confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths. 

South African scientists on the ground said they are currently studying if the vaccines against COVID-19 will also offer protection against the country's new strain. 

DJ-Again it is very likely both the UK and South African (SA) variants are "widespread". It is also very likely the UK variant reached SA.  With very limited testing/reporting both variants may spread in (southern) Africa.

[url]https://africacdc.org/news-item/statement-on-new-sars-cov-2-variant-with-multiple-spike-protein-mutations/[/url] or https://africacdc.org/news-item/statement-on-new-sars-cov-2-variant-with-multiple-spike-protein-mutations/  ;

ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA, 21 DECEMBER 2020. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) has noted recent developments about the new variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, which was reported in South Africa and the United Kingdom last week. This new variant is defined by multiple non-synonymous mutation in the spike (S) protein, of which three are on the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein. One of the most significant in South Africa is an N501Y mutation in the receptor binding motif that binds to the human ACE2 receptor, and in the United Kingdom a new lineage that contains the N501Y mutation but distinct from that of South Africa.

Africa CDC was notified and is following up with authorities in South Africa, where a cluster of sequences forming a new lineage was identified first in Nelson Mandela Bay and later rapidly spread through the rest of Eastern Cape and to the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.

Researchers are still studying evidence and gathering more data on this occurrence. Preliminary analyses in South Africa and the United Kingdom have associated this new strain with potentially increased transmissibility and higher viral load than the previously circulating variants. 

Further studies are ongoing to confirm whether this variant is more infectious and more transmissible, whether it causes more severe illness, and to assess the impact of these mutations on the performance of molecular diagnostic and serological methods, and risk of vaccine escape.

DJ-The African Center for Disease Control (AC/DC but then different...) may be a good source for info..also [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ can be a help. New cases-dec 21- highest in South Africa, then four countries in northern Africa, Botswana and Namibia-bordering South Africa at #6 and 7...with very limited testing, reporting capacity Africa will become a hotspot. 

SA will soon cross the 1 million cases, but Ethiopia, Kenya, Egypt, Nigeria are also among the high risk countries.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2020 at 3:13am

"The N501Y mutation was circulating independently and separately in Brazil in April, 2020, and in the U.S. and Australia in June-July, 2020," Tang said. 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/mutation-in-new-uk-covid-strain-found-in-brazil-last-spring-now-in-four-countries/ar-BB1c79qd

"

The new SARS-CoV-2 virus B.1.1.7 strain—containing the N501Y mutation—was first detected in the southeast of England in September and is spreading fast in the region, with scientists estimating that it may account for 60 percent of all new infections.

The strain has also been detected in other parts of the U.K. and a handful of cases have now also been confirmed in Denmark, the Netherlands, Australia, Italy and the British overseas territory of Gibraltar—located on the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula—in recent weeks.

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DJ

-A look at numbers. In NL at 10 places above 1% of all of the population tested positive for Covid19-most in the "Dutch Bible-belt" were church activities did slow down but not (yet) stop. (https://twitter.com/DieTukkerfries/status/1341478053730537475 link in Dutch)

Worldometers dec 22 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ "as always" US on top with almost 1/3 of all global tested, reported cases of almost 605,000. The UK at #3 over 36,000 cases. Brazil #2 see further increases (is it wave two or three ?) with over 55,000 new cases. All these three countries have right wing governments-"let the market do the job"...For that matter NL is at #11 with close to 10.000 new cases..

The "good news" is we will not see 100 million cases january 1, the number of deaths will then also still be under the 2 million. In lots of places mass vaccinations will start within a week. 

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZS8nwjdjn4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZS8nwjdjn4 on DW; 

 -Good, short answer on three questions; what is the mutation, risks-does the vaccine still works and is it outside the UK ?

 1.Receptorbinding change-at first 70% increase is based on statistics from different UK regions. The mutation makes it easier to catch this virus. So more cases-but not more severe disease-still more cases is a major problem.

 2. Vaccine stimulates immunity in many ways-from anti bodies to killer cells..yes vaccines should still work..

 3. The virus showed up september 20, started spreading in London in november...must be widespread by now...

DJ Monitoring in the UK on what the virus looks like may be a bit better then in most countries. I believe around 1% of all positive cases may see virus samples tested. That is all over 32.000 RNA-proteines "sequenced" to detect changes. In NL we did 500 samples per week-with over 10.000 new cases per day ! We now doubled that number to 1000 a week-still limited..Mutation monitoring should increase with this pandemic-the more cases-also outside humans-the more changes=mutations. That info has to be shared international to get an "early warning system". 

The official NL story is "only 2 cases with UK mutations have been found" (both in the Amsterdam region-one person had UK travel history, the other (partner of UK traveller ?) did not visit the UK-Belgium reported 4 cases-close to the Dutch border..). The real number-given the explosive +20% rise in cases last week-must be higher-not only in NL. 

Fear of borders getting closed, economic damage may limit countries in reporting mutated cases while in this stage it is very essential that they do report all mutations !

-DJ To evade YouTube censorship Peak Prosperity/Chris Martenson now has a blog [url]https://www.peakprosperity.com/2021-is-going-to-be-rough/[/url] or https://www.peakprosperity.com/2021-is-going-to-be-rough/ ;

 -

On a percent change basis, the entire money stock of the US — which includes all of the money stock built up over its entire history — increased by 65.6%.

In a single year!!!

At the same time the US is doing the worst job out of any country in the world managing Covid.  Simply terrible.  Awful.

-

Because of Ivermectin, which has been overwhelmingly demonstrated to all but entirely block the transmission of the SARS2 virus as well as prevent the development of serious cases of Covid the disease.

Nobody at the NIH is interested in this data for some reason.  Fauci doesn’t care or want to hear about it.   All the US medical establishment wants is a vaccine.

That’s fine to an extent, but what about all the lives lost and ruined while we wait?  Is there no accounting for them?  How awful of the national health managers that they should not care about the most vulnerable, the weak, and the elderly.  At all.

DJ-Lots of countries-not only the US-did increase spending "to save the economy" while income dropped. Some countries managed to keep a sort of balance (DJ-I believe NL had a decrease of the economy by 8,5% during the first wave, the UK did see a decrease of over 20%...we-in NL- did have a less strict lockdown, very likely better internet capabilities-a lot of shopping went via the internet...).

Of course we now have wave two/three-the economic damage will be much larger. Future economic growth has to make up for more debts made now. Taking a mortgage on future economic growth can be clever-but making to much debts can be stupid-further destroying a country (via hyperinflation-a loaf of bread could go from 1$ to 10$ in a week...)

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/12/a-no-deal-brexit-is-now-all-but-certain-to-happen.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/12/a-no-deal-brexit-is-now-all-but-certain-to-happen.html 

-The UK did fail to replace the EU with other partners for (global) trade. (I would have voted for Brexit hoping the EU would get more democratic-it did not. The UK now getting out of the EU may "do a lot of damage" most to the UK. All of that damage is the result of "bad politics".)

What I find fascinating on "this time" is a mega mix of events-we are seeing history made. This pandemic is speeding up processes going on for a longer time. 

[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/510109-eu-investment-beijing-china/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/510109-eu-investment-beijing-china/  DJ-Now the UK is (as good as) out of the EU the EU has more room to find its own way. And yes that is energydeals with Russia, sticking-in a form-to the Iran-deal and increasing trade with China. Germany, France, Italy will more dominate the EU. The Mediterrenean and North Africa/Middle East is getting more important with the UK out of the EU. 

[url]https://southfront.org/us-navy-deploys-nuclear-submarine-to-persian-gulf/[/url] or https://southfront.org/us-navy-deploys-nuclear-submarine-to-persian-gulf/ and 

[url]https://southfront.org/u-s-adds-chinese-russian-companies-to-meu-alternative-sanctions-list-pushing-them-closer-together/[/url] or https://southfront.org/u-s-adds-chinese-russian-companies-to-meu-alternative-sanctions-list-pushing-them-closer-together/  are part of a global "game". The US is no longer the only "superpower". In a multipolar world not only Russia, China will play a role, also India and the EU, Erdogan/Turkey also has his dreams...

This pandemic is destroying the US ! It looks like mutated forms of Covid19 will be far more destructive on society-and the US has it doors wide open...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ ;

If 1% of a million is 10.000 New Jersey with 2078 deaths per million is seeing 0,2078% of its population already killed by Covid19. On the global list San Marino has 1649 dpm*=0,1649% of its population killed..Italy gets to 0,1156%, Peru 0,1121% (the total of the US in this list is still at 0,0997%. Three US States are doing worse then San Marino in the deaths per million list (NJ, NY, Mass). 

Iowa has 0,1158-as the twelfth US state above the dpm of Italy. Hospitalcare in most of the US is getting close to breaking point (as in many other places). Christmas, New Year NEED very strict restrictions to avoid a disaster-but 84million US citizens are "on the move", dozens of flights from the UK per day importing VUI2020-12-1 (Virus Under Investigation=mutated 70% more infectious) into the country. *dpm=deaths per million

[url]https://www.globalresearch.ca/behold-the-dawning-of-the-age-of-aquarius/5732825[/url] or https://www.globalresearch.ca/behold-the-dawning-of-the-age-of-aquarius/5732825 "a great reset"

Music; Age of Aquarius-5th Dimension [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjxSCAalsBE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjxSCAalsBE  [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Aquarius[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_of_Aquarius 


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DJ

[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/510311-german-alliance-future-relations/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/510311-german-alliance-future-relations/ and [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/510407-us-biden-gerontocracy-soviet-union/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/510407-us-biden-gerontocracy-soviet-union/ 

What could a "post pandemic" world look like in 2025 ?

-The EU may move more towards the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation  Trade instead of war-communication instead of bombs. I think the EU may welcome Ukraine, Turkey-in good communication with Russia, China and as part of increasing trade with those countries. 

-[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pakistan-comes-under-pressure-to-normalize-relations-with-israel/[/url] or https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/pakistan-comes-under-pressure-to-normalize-relations-with-israel/ What the US may be not realizing-"Peace in the Middle East" may be of greater interest for Russia and China (as their link to Europe, Africa) then for the US. 

With the US becoming oil-producer #1 Arab states do see the US more as competition then as a partner. OPEC+ (with Russia) is a reaction on the US getting to #1 (by fracking, Alaska drills). 

Israel does more and more realize it needs good relations with its neighbours-if the US can be a partner in it that is welcome. Netanyahu is "very good friends" with Putin-they have contact monthly...Also China as tradepartner-using the Israeli strategic position between Asia-Europe-Africa-can be usefull in Israeli plans. 

For most middle east countries the US is a welcome partner to keep Iran (and its limited oil production) under control. "Religious conflicts" and "Iran agression"are welcome-unreal-excuses. 

-There may be two forms of agression/wars in history; the agression of #1 trying to stay in power and the agression of #2 trying to become #1. The UK did give up being #1 during/after (as a price for winning) World War 1. The US-trying to stay out of global chaos [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monroe_Doctrine became #1-with a lot of hesitation-as a result of World War 2. 

Germany became united in the 19th century-was at first succesfull in the French-German war, other wars. But did not get to #1 in both world wars. 

World War 1 did end the Ottoman Empire-one could claim in a form a continuation of the East-Roman/Byzanthine Empire in a different form. Erdogan wants to "restore" something of that past-with Turkey also frustrated being kept out of the EU. 

With the EU going for its own interests-not as a "US project"-and willing to deal with Russia and China accepting Turkey-and its allies (like Ukraine) may be acceptable (as a last act of Erdogan-to be replaced with a Turkish leader more fitting for international cooperation).  (DJ-We did accept Bulgaria, Romania as members-in many ways in worse shape then Turkey at the moment they became members.)

Trying to stay #1 can destroy the country trying to do so...The UK did learn that last (20th) century-the US will find out this century. The future may be in international cooperation. 

-DJ-I hope Africa will unite-overcome its many differences. Africa is rich in oil, gold, uranium, food production. It is kept poor by how global trade works. A lot of low pay jobs is shifting away from Asia to (East) Africa. (With Ethiopia close to war with Sudan, Egypt over a dam/hydro power plant in the Nile close to the Sudan border.) 

Just like ACDC can mean different things-an Australian rockgroup, electricity or African CDC-the "new USA" could be the United States of Africa. China is proof that "outsourcing jobs" is "outsourcing power". It was the US that started globilization transferring jobs to "low income countries" like China in the 80's. 

Africa does want to avoid getting re-colonized. Doing bussines with China, India, the EU, Latin America (etc) could help avoiding getting in such a bad position again. There are many things dividing Africa-but many interests may unite Africa...(I would not be surprised if-at the end of this century-if climate change would not be such a major factor) the US of Africa could be a new dominant global player.) 

"A poor man with no skills is a burden" - "A poor man with skills shall not stay poor" may go both for India, Africa and Latin America. Countries like Venezuela, Bolivia (under Morales), Brazil (under Lula), Argentine are looking for a more "balanced" global position. The US want to control Latin America-but is more and more unable to do so...Replacing popular leaders with "scum" is no long term effective (US) strategy... For to long the US did bring to power criminals brutalizing the Latin American (etc) population...

The strenght of the China-New Silk Road strategy is investments to become equal partners...Instead of spending trillions on endless wars spend those trillions on investments in infrastructure, education, healthcare, housing...

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) wants the "economy work for the people" avoid a small elite getting to much power. Western democracies have to correct for that- a 0,1% claiming to own almost everything-is not my idea of democracy. The CCP is-in many ways-much more nationalistic then "communist" something the US/MSM seems to be unable to understand. 

By 2025 there will have been a "reset" if we-as humans-want to survive. A new balance between public and private interests is needed urgently. Healthcare, education, housing, "security" does not belong in "private hands" since they are public interests !

This pandemic is learning us a lesson-are we willing to listen ?

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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[url]https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-latest-news-cases-area-tier-4-sturgeon-variant-b1777998.html[/url] or https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-latest-news-cases-area-tier-4-sturgeon-variant-b1777998.html

-More areas in England could face Tier 4 restrictions from Boxing Day due to fears of rising infection rates across the country over the Christmas period.

Genomic researchers and local public health officials have warned that the variant has already spread around the UK, with cases identified in Wales, Scotland and parts of northern England.

-

Matt Hancock has said the two cases of a new variant of coronavirus detected in the UK came from contacts of cases who travelled from South Africa over the past few weeks.

“We are incredibly grateful to the South African government for the rigour of their science and the openness and the transparency with which they have rightly acted as we did when we discovered a new variant here,” Mr Hancock said.

“This new variant is highly concerning because it is yet more transmissible and it appears to have mutated further than the new variant that has been discovered in the UK.”

He added that both cases and close contacts of the cases had been quarantined and there would be immediate restrictions on travel from South Africa.

DJ I was expecting a mix of UK and SA variants in South Africa-but it seems the SA variant did arrive in the UK (as well ?)-further worsening of perspectives...

-

Sikh community cooks hundreds of meals for stuck lorry drivers

Members of the Sikh community in Kent have delivered hundreds of hot meals to lorry drivers stranded in Dover waiting to cross the Channel this week.

“No one is going to starve … You don’t have to be a Christian to know it is the season of goodwill,” Ravinder Singh, the founder and chief executive of the NGO Khalsa Aid, told The Independent about the campaign.

DJ Can a person get infected by several forms/variants of Covid19 ? Yes people on immunu suppressants may be "high risk". The UK variant may have started in such a person (and maybe not in the UK). A mix of UK and SA variants can bring Covid19 further away from the "original" increasing risks for reinfections and vaccines getting less effective...

Also if there are several variants getting vaccines to work on ALL forms may get harder. 

(DJ-I am NOT a scientist...just interested in developments..)

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DJ

-[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/four-covid-mutation-cases-test-positive-at-israeli-hospital/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/four-covid-mutation-cases-test-positive-at-israeli-hospital/ reports of (suspected) variant infections (both UK and SA) are increasing. The UK variant most likely did arrive in Surinam-a former Dutch colony north of Brazil. In NL first reporting on two Amsterdam-region cases show to be incorrect. The two cases do not have any connection with eachother, did not have any UK travel history-also their contacts did not have any links with the UK-the Dutch CDC-RIVM therefor assumes the UK variant is also spreading in NL. 

Again-mixing of several variants (old, UK, SA, others ??) can bring Covid19 further away from the original virus. Increasing risks for reinfection and most likely making vaccinations less effective. Still vaccines may give a high degree of immunity-it would be a good thing if vaccinations can increase. NPI-social distancing-(more then two meters...!) can also be helpfull...still

-the numbers are not good. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ dec 23.

 -Total numbers not yet making new record high numbers. Close to 700.000 new cases in one day, almost 13,500 deaths is very alarming. 

 -US numbers are high-but not on record levels, UK is seeing a record number of 39,237 new cases-number of deaths in one day has been higher. Both for the US and UK the outlook is not good. 

-Here in NL non-Covid care is slowly halted-only very urgent non-Covid care is available. In new cases-per 100.000-last week we are at the global top. Over 80.000 new cases in one week on a population of 17,5 million is very alarming. Still our "government" believes our "strict lockdown" will work...a lot of spread is in large families in the Dutch Bibble Belt. (DJ-If meeting at churches is a problem it has to stop-but most of the viralspread will be in the houses. The larger families are the basic problem...)

In general one may expect global number of cases-following that-deaths-to "explode". Both the UK and SA variants have much higher infectionrates, it is very likely these variants are already allover the globe. Also other variants most likely are already there or soon will show up. Governments failing to limit social movements-in combination with Christmas, New Year, school/work restarting early january will increase spread..

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02VZW5gT1HU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02VZW5gT1HU

 -"Good news first" (if a doctor starts this way pay attention !) the AstraZeneca/Oxford will be approved in the UK dec 29. DJ-Good news-easy storage, cheap, will be made at over 20 locations around the globe. But does it come in time...?

 -Hospitalcases in the UK are getting close to critical. Over 2000 people getting into hospital-total number above 20.000. (DJ-The reason why the hospitalnumber does not go up by the 2000 is that Covid has an "outcome". On december 23 the UK reported 744 deaths. But patients also may see health improving. Being send home and in need of extra care there. They also may end up in other carecenters for revalidation-the burden will spread over all of the medical system..)

 -With "only" the old variant of Covid19 70% of population vaccinated (or being infected to a degree) would give "herd immunity". With new, more infectious variants you may need 80% (+?) herdimmunity/being vaccinated-so vaccination providing safety may take longer...(DJ-If vaccinations are as effective as they claim-over 90% (so 10% -or less- being vaccinated still can get Covid19 ) it may take "a few months extra" to get out of this pandemic by vaccination. With new "variants" the need for re-vaccination may grow. It is still not very clear how long getting vaccinated will give immunity; years ? (Like people that did have SARS-1 in 2003 and still seem to be immune for this SARS-2/Covid19). Or will it be more like flu-vaccinations-you need a flu shot every year to "boost immunity", also get protection for "new variants" ?)

 -US over 117.000 Covid19 patients in hospital (DJ on a population 332 million almost-UK population 68 million-over 20.000 in hospital=hospitalcases in UK and US more or less at the same level) In a pandemic deaths go up very fast if the hospitalcare is not able to deal with the numbers-that scenario is getting very close now. (DJ-There are some choices, stop giving non-covidcare at all=increase of non-covid deaths but may safe lives in much larger group of covidpatients...)

 -Proberbly in most places staff is the problem. HCW-ers are close to breaking point, also getting very demotivated if they see outside hospitals there is "not enough action" to stop this pandemic. The message has to be that getting this pandemic under control is the duty of ALL ! (Not just people in hospitals, GP's etc. DJ-I think news on vaccinations may have send the wrong message-it is NOT okay to mix socially if there has not been a mass vaccination yet. A false sense of safety.)

 -There is hardly any genetic sequencing in the US. The UK variant showed up in the UK because they have the best surveillance program looking for new virusses or mutations. Of all sequensing of Covid19 45% is done in the UK (!!!!).

A US virologist; "We already have out of control transmission of all the variants that are circulating in the US" (DJ-How many variants are there in the US ???)

The significance of the UK variant became clear dec 8. But sequensing and correlation studies take three weeks...(DJ-One would think computers would do most of the work ? But the center most likely is following lots of diseases, sequensing lots of virusses (etc). It is a very big job.) UK variant 1 out of 12.000 Covid19 mutations...Dr.J.C. the N501Y mutation showed up both in UK and SA-will become the dominant new form (DJ-unless another form of Covid19 is able to reproduce even faster in "hosts" (that is us, most likely some other animals...).

 -Increased viral load (? Dr.J.C. would give more severe illness-we are not seeing that) or more "viral shedding" (more viral parts being produced-DJ-for longer ? an infected person spreads more viral parts so (70%) more people may get infected.

 -Now other countries know (from the UK findings) what to look for they may find more "UK variants" as well. Denmark has already found 10 UK variants...Statistic patterns also can be indication of the presence of "virus-variants", numbers going up very fast-even with NPI rules may indicate new form of Covid19.

 -In Nigeria (population 208 million) cases are going up. Testing is very limited, no sequencing...may be a variant. Also statistics show variants do infect more children. Is that coincidental ? Furter research here is still needed...

 _ Taiwan did not see a new case since april. A NZ pilot of a cargo plane introduced it again...just a reminder-one person can start a pandemic...

DJ A new Dutch (Nijmegen I believe) study indicates more severe Covid19 cases create damaging antibodies. "Sugar" doing much more organ/lung damage. The idea is now to get antibodies from mild cases into more severe cases to limit the damage of "bad"antibodies by introducing "good" antibodies...

Also [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/dossier-corona-in-het-rijk-van-nijmegen/aan-bloed-al-snel-te-zien-of-iemand-erg-ziek-gaat-worden-door-een-coronabesmetting~a0f1601e/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/dossier-corona-in-het-rijk-van-nijmegen/aan-bloed-al-snel-te-zien-of-iemand-erg-ziek-gaat-worden-door-een-coronabesmetting~a0f1601e/ bloodsamples can give an early indication for severity of disease. The more antibodies the higher the level of infection. Acting in time can make care more efficient. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk/page5[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/901351-england-new-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-may-be-causing-faster-spread-in-some-areas-december-14-more-countries-ban-travel-from-uk/page5 has a.o. 

(CNN)Michael Worobey, a biologist at the University of Arizona, has seen more than 100,000 different strains of the virus that causes Covid-19. But when he saw the new variant from the UK, he noticed something different.

"This is the first variant I've seen during the whole pandemic where I took a step back and said: 'Whoa,' " he remembers.
Health officials have downplayed the possibility that the coronavirus vaccines won't work against the UK strain, but Worobey and other scientists thinks it's a possibility -- and it's just a possibility -- that this new variant might, to a small extent, outsmart the vaccines.

"This is the first variant I've seen where I think there is this burning question," said Worobey, head of the department of ecology and evolutionary biology at the University of Arizona...

[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/23/health/coronavirus-uk-variant-vaccines-less-effective-prevent-covid-19/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/23/health/coronavirus-uk-variant-vaccines-less-effective-prevent-covid-19/index.html ;

"It might decrease vaccine efficacy from 95% to something like 80% or 85%," he said. "It would be a modest effect, not a dramatic effect."

DJ-Also Singapore, Malaysia did find the UK variant (DJ-Very likely NOT from the UK but found by good monitoring in the UK. Just like the "Spanish Flu" got its name from Spanish uncensored press in World War 1...

Stay safe and isolated ! 

Music; Dana-It's Gonna Be A Cold, Cold Christmas (Without You) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LinW9kHGdJs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LinW9kHGdJs  




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 24 2020 at 8:04am

DJ

New Nigerian Covid variant, Dr.J.C. was talking about increases as implication for a new variant-he turns out to be correct; [url]https://globalnews.ca/news/7540767/coronavirus-new-variant-nigeria/[/url] or https://globalnews.ca/news/7540767/coronavirus-new-variant-nigeria/ ;

Another new variant of the coronavirus appears to have emerged in Nigeria, Africa’s top public health official said Thursday, but he added that further investigation was needed.

The discovery could add to new alarm in the pandemic after similar variants were announced in Britain and South Africa, leading to the swift return of international travel restrictions and other measures just as the world enters a major holiday season.

“It’s a separate lineage from the U.K. and South Africa,” the head of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, John Nkengasong, told reporters. He said the Nigeria CDC and the African Center of Excellence for Genomics of Infectious Diseases in that country — Africa’s most populous — will be analyzing more samples.

The alert about the apparent new variant was based on two or three genetic sequences, he said, but that and South Africa’s alert late last week were enough to prompt an emergency meeting of the Africa CDC this week.

The variant was found in two patient samples collected on Aug. 3 and on Oct. 9 in Nigeria’s Osun state, according to a working research paper seen by The Associated Press.

Unlike the variant seen in the U.K., “we haven’t observed such rapid rise of the lineage in Nigeria and do not have evidence to indicate that the P681H variant is contributing to increased transmission of the virus in Nigeria. However, the relative difference in scale of genomic surveillance in Nigeria vs the U.K. may imply a reduced power to detect such changes,” the paper says.

-

The African continent now has more than 2.5 million confirmed cases, or 3.3 per cent of global cases. Infections across the continent have risen 10.9% over the past four weeks, Nkengasong said, including a 52% increase in Nigeria and 40 per cent increase in South Africa.

DJ-With very limited testing or sequensing it is close to a miracle Nigeria did find the new variant..

-Also new variant in Iran ? [url]https://health.liveuamap.com/en/2020/24-december-krg-close-all-border-gates-with-iran-due-to-new[/url] or https://health.liveuamap.com/en/2020/24-december-krg-close-all-border-gates-with-iran-due-to-new 

-On the UK variant [url]https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/12/24/641393/Iran-health-ministry-uk-mutated-strain-coronavirus[/url] or https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/12/24/641393/Iran-health-ministry-uk-mutated-strain-coronavirus ;

The mutated variant of coronavirus may have leaked from a UK vaccine research laboratory, according to a British researcher who spoke to an advisor to Iran’s health minister.

“Today we had a conversation with a British researcher who said the mutated virus has probably leaked from a vaccine development laboratory in the UK,” Alireza Vahabzadeh, a media advisor to Iran’s health minister, tweeted on Wednesday.

“It is not clear how the virus has leaked and spread,” he added.

“Apparently the country’s doctors are not allowed to comment about the issue, and no clear explanation has been provided in this regard,” the Iranian official said.

-

No trace of mutated virus in Iran: Minister

Meanwhile, Iran’s Health Minister Saeed Namaki said no traces of the new strain of coronavirus have been found in Iran yet.

In comments on Wednesday, he said Iran is monitoring all the passengers who have entered the country over the past two or three weeks.

"So far we have fortunately found no traces of the mutated virus identified in England,” he noted.

DJ-It is very likely there are "a lot of variants" around. Iran(region) may have their own "variation(s), Brazil, India, US ? If there are lots of cases there may be a lot of mutations...

-Here in NL [url]https://dutchreview.com/news/mutated-and-highly-infectious-covid-19-strain-likely-circulating-in-netherlands-rivm/[/url] or https://dutchreview.com/news/mutated-and-highly-infectious-covid-19-strain-likely-circulating-in-netherlands-rivm/ ;

Chantal Reusken, chief virologist at the RIVM, told the NOS that “several signals” indicate that the mutated disease has probably already spread across the Netherlands. She believes the new variant will appear in Dutch test samples within the next few days.

Possibly more infections

“Evidence is piling up that this variant infects people more easily,” Reusken told the NOS. “It is expected that, just like in the United Kingdom, this variant will eventually become the dominant strain in the Netherlands.”

This is bad news for the country. The new variant is not thought to be more deadly, but the Netherlands is already under the pump dealing with the original strain of the virus.

DJ-Most likely if it is NL it is all over Western Europe...with healthcare close to breaking point the coming months will be "hard"...

[url]https://www.thelocal.dk/20201224/denmark[/url] or https://www.thelocal.dk/20201224/denmark ;

Denmark has discovered 33 Covid-19 infections with the new coronavirus strain that has been spreading rapidly in the UK, reported Reuters.

The State Serum Institute (SSI), Denmark’s infectious disease authority, reported on Wednesday December 23 that the new strain had be found in Covid patients, who tested positive between November 14 and December 14.

So far Denmark has analysed genetic material from 7,805 positive tests during the month-long period. Data shows that the new variant was found in approximately 0.4% of Covid infections.

However, SSI reports that this is only 13.5% of all the positive tests in that period and that percentage could change once more have been analysed.

Weathernews [url]https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-storm-christmas-east-coast-mk/[/url] or https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-storm-christmas-east-coast-mk/ and [url]https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-storm-uk-snow-europe-mk/[/url] or https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/winter-storm-uk-snow-europe-mk/ both Europe and US may face weatherproblems...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 24 2020 at 9:46pm

DJ,

Happy holidays to all of you ! Stay safe and healthy ! I wish a certain virus would go skiing in an uninhabited area...

The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for december 24. In the list of new cases Brazil shows up with almost 60.000 new cases. The UK close to 40.000 new cases...South Africa (SA) at #11 but also in the news for a "new variant".

After news from Denmark-mink mutations the "door opened" when the UK came with its variant. SA followed, Nigeria was next...unclear "news" from Brazil, Iran may indicate there are new variants there as well. 

I do not like "false hope" believe in honesty. These mutations were supposed to happen one way or another since the virus did get that widespread. It will effect vaccine-effectivity, increase risk of reinfections. "Our leaders" and "experts" should be honest about that...this pandemic is "hard to beat". Realism is essential-we need long term plans to limit damage and "make the best of it". 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/did-fauci-just-admit-he-lied-about-herd-immunity-trick-americans-vaccine[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/did-fauci-just-admit-he-lied-about-herd-immunity-trick-americans-vaccine

NPI-social distancing may be needed for maybe a few years. There are still lots of things to do to make life usefull. The pain is in false stories of how herd immunity, summer or now vaccines will save us. Yes vaccines can be of use...they need to be able to deal with all the variants around to "get us out of here"...

-[url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201225001052320?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20201225001052320?section=national/national South Korea reporting record number of cases...

-Dr. John Campbell on UK/SA variants [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmfLkEuyWdo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmfLkEuyWdo  (lots of info/links under the video);

 -Canada approves Moderna-already using Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Could be the first country beating the virus by vaccines (Dr.J.C. believes). Also France starting vaccinations sunday. Why did it take that long before the European Medecine Agency approved usage of Pfizer vaccines...? They should understand the urgency. By now the UK and US did vaccinate over a million people..

 -In the US 115 million people traveling. Dr.J.C. simply means rampant spread, very major problems/healthcare crash in the US early 2021...(DJ Also in other countries "people do not believe in the virus" act as if you are the crazy one...)

 -SA "variant"; the N to Y transition on location 501 is the same as in the UK variant. The transition/mutation/change was separately in the UK and SA-makes the virus "more fitting". Still a lot of airtravel from SA to all parts of the world (and has been going on for most of the year) so the SA variant must be spreading all over the globe...(DJ-Since many states have shares in airlines, want to safe "the economy" governments are not stopping airtravel.)

 -SA minister of health; new variant spreading faster then virusspread during first wave. More younger people effected-getting very ill. Reminds him of HIV/AIDS explosions...New variant now dominant form in SA. (DJ SA is like the UK in Europe-all refugees want to go there...lots of people from Zimbabwe in SA. Also much tourism.)

 -DJ In NL 20% (+?) testing positive does not stay in quarantine (and can get away with it...not mandatory in NL). Quarantine in NL has been reduced to ONE WEEK (!!!!) -Dr.J.C. thinks 10 days is short-should be two weeks..(Quarantine in the old days meant 40 days...and there was good reason for that !)

 -UK variant does spread 56% faster (95% chance between 50 and 74 %) will become the UK dominant form (DJ unless other forms -SA- pushes the UK form from its position). Tier4-lockdown restrictions not enough to stop spread ALL schools have to close, increase vaccinations. (DJ-If they would need to introduce "tier 5 restrictions" it would mean locking people up in their houses...very draconian measures..)

 -Statistics of cases/deaths give indication of severity of the pandemic. In London 2% of population infected...UK cases up 57% in last week. 

 -Russia underreporting (claims Dr.J.C.) is the UK variant (with several science names by now-DJ) spreading in Russia or do they have their own variant ? 

DJ-Dr.J.C. is again warning for more spread in Christmas, New Year. UK and SA variants must-by now-be all over the globe starting to spread much faster and in all ages. With hospital care already critical (in my region of NL medical staff does not get leave, has to return to their jobs-if they can. In some other NL region HCW can be up to 20% ill/quarantine...beds are there, staff is running out fast.)

This pandemic may get geo-political consequences. In the US 5,7% of the population has been tested positive-the real number of infections could be 100 million+-still leaving over 200 million people to get infected much faster then during the spring wave. Cases also getting up very fast in large parts of Europe. Winterweather will bring logistics problems...

The first chain to break in society during a pandemic is healthcare. After that logistics may fail-specialy during winter. Food and medication may become an increasing problem-but it could also effect electricity. Governments should now set priorities on how to keep the basics of society running. They have been running behind the facts all the time....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSqT6vHTMzg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wSqT6vHTMzg A more optimistic video on mouthwash giving some protection. Also vitamin D, C supplements, melatonin (also helps to get a good sleep !) can be of use. 

Music; Last Christmas (double meaning-also due to its singer ?) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syssbmp8oSw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syssbmp8oSw 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 25 2020 at 10:54pm

DJ

A look at the numbers for december 25 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; With limited testing almost half a million new cases. The US will be at 20 million cases before the end of this year. In new cases the UK is second-most of those cases will be the "UK variant". That variant is showing up all over the globe, Japan, Lebanon, France, Germany, Ireland...did not see the US reporting UK variants-while there must be hundreds at least-is the US checking on it ? (Or did I just miss it ?) The US will ask for a negatice Covid19 test from december 28 ......

South Africa will be country # 18 to get over 1 million tested/reported cases...NL is at #19...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/25/netherlands-covid-infections-remarkably-high[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/25/netherlands-covid-infections-remarkably-high 

(DJ-For the people disliking trump-here in NL we have a government of "trump with a smile" run by liberal-conservatives sponsored by (Royal Dutch=25%+ in hand of the Dutch "royal family") Shell. The US, UK, and NL in 2019 were seen as the three countries best prepared to deal with a pandemic...the opposite turned out to be more realistic. A country like Germany-that did not destroy its hospitals and healthcare by spending cuts (to make the rich even richer) - is doing so much better. I believe at least 7 Dutch patients are now at German ICU's..)

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/new-study-suggests-asymptomatic-covid-patients-arent-driver-transmission[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/new-study-suggests-asymptomatic-covid-patients-arent-driver-transmission ;

DJ-Science is far from perfect. Interpretation of studies are often even far worse then the studies itself...It would be wiser for science to admit that we simply do not know a lot of things. Presenting "facts" wich turn out to be more complicated may give a wrong impression. (Most science reports mention the level of uncertainty, describe the time and group they studied. A study from march 2020 on anything related to this pandemic has to be different then a study from this month. Main-stream-media can do a lot of damage (like CNN reporting the UK variant 70 times more infectious instead of 70%...). 

Politicians should be able to translate science to a the general public-lead by example. Here in NL our minister of health this summer went to France on holiday-during a pandemic. Our minister of justice told everyone to keep distance hugging himself a lot of people during his wedding. Now "our" minister of war/defense did believe it to be wise to go to a church service-while the official story-during this supposed to be strict lockdown is "stay at home"...

In a lot of countries "leaders lead by words not by action"-do what I say, not what I do...This pandemic is the result of "bad managers", unable to see what will be the outcome of their inaction and stupidity. When you did look at Dr.J.C. latest video he has difficulties in hiding his frustrations...Also a Dutch "data reporter" stopped dealing with this pandemic out of frustration...If people with even no science background can see what will be the results of inaction why are "leaders and experts" that blinded ? 

-[url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9087293/Britains-biggest-coronavirus-testing-lab-Milton-Keynes-hit-Covid-outbreak.html[/url] or https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9087293/Britains-biggest-coronavirus-testing-lab-Milton-Keynes-hit-Covid-outbreak.html ;

Health care is already close to breaking point. Here in NL the army is giving support at several care centers, doing some testing. At some health centers over 20% of HCW (Health Care Workers) are already ill-often infected with Covid19. Quite a lot of them also running into mental problems, depression, PTSD, they will not be working in healthcare for a long time...

-[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/25/large-families-religion-behind-high-covid-rate-nls-bible-belt-municipalities-say[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/25/large-families-religion-behind-high-covid-rate-nls-bible-belt-municipalities-say DJ-I take freedom of "belief" (=more then "just"religion) very serious. It may be correct that spread of the virus is most in the larger families...still since this is an emergency, there are alternatives, "places of worship" should be closed (by law not an "advice"-still quarantine is an "advice" in NL-with new variants being much more infectious starting to spread and most Dutch (70%+) willing to accept stricter rules.

Climate chaos

[url]https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/25/white-christmas-snow-falls-parts-uk-storm-bella-way/[/url] or https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/12/25/white-christmas-snow-falls-parts-uk-storm-bella-way/ Storm Bella-what a nice name-will be here in NL tomorrow...

music; Jona Lewie-Stop The Cavalry [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HkJHApgKqw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HkJHApgKqw 

Hey, Mr. Churchill comes over here
To say we're doing splendidly
But it's very cold out here in the snow
Marching to and from the enemy
Oh I say it's tough, I have had enough
Can you stop the cavalry?
I have had to fight, almost every night
Down throughout these centuries
That is when I say, oh yes yet again
Can you stop the cavalry?
Mary Bradley waits at home
In the nuclear fall-out zone
Wish I could be dancing now
In the arms of the girl I love
Wish I was at home for Christmas
Bang! That's another bomb on another town
While the Tsar and Jim have tea
If I get home, live to tell the tale
I'll run…


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 26 2020 at 9:56pm

DJ, some items...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are quite low-most likely due to christmas-allthough some "experts/politicians" claim "their policy is working and bringing numbers down"....

-India not yet detected the UK variant [url]https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/new-covid-strain-not-detected-in-samples-tested-in-india-says-icmr-nari-director/story-plBZ4r0kLidDEHnP9v4BSM.html[/url] or https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/new-covid-strain-not-detected-in-samples-tested-in-india-says-icmr-nari-director/story-plBZ4r0kLidDEHnP9v4BSM.html at least good they are looking for it..

[url]https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/covid-19-triggering-rare-fatal-fungal-infection-here-s-all-about-mucormycosis/story-ZN9ZD9ewZOwrc4rxIZUACL.html[/url] or https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/covid-19-triggering-rare-fatal-fungal-infection-here-s-all-about-mucormycosis/story-ZN9ZD9ewZOwrc4rxIZUACL.html ;

Gujarat has issued an advisory after some patients of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19) in the state were found infected with mucormycosis, a serious but rare fungal infection, which has an overall “mortality rate of 50%”. In its advisory to doctors and health officials, the state’s health department has said that mucormycosis infects people with a weak immune system and those with other existing illnesses. The department said the advisory is being issued after some Covid-19 patients in Ahmedabad and Rajkot were found infected with mucormycosis.

Last week, doctors at Delhi’s Sir Ganga Ram Hospital also found multiple cases in recovering coronavirus disease patients, who were diagnosed with the deadly fungal infection. They said nearly half of them lost their eyesight.

DJ-A co-infection getting its chance in (a.o.) Covid19 patients.

-My main point today is what should be seen as criminal government(s) inaction during this pandemic ? Let me put some points;

1- [url]https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532693-500-coronavirus-how-well-prepared-are-countries-for-a-covid-19-pandemic/[/url] or https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24532693-500-coronavirus-how-well-prepared-are-countries-for-a-covid-19-pandemic/

“In that case, we are in an epidemic situation,” says Mark Woolhouse at the University of Edinburgh, UK. “We won’t be able to control it, and it will have to run its course.”

Paul Hunter at the University of East Anglia, UK, thinks a coronavirus pandemic would be no worse than the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic. Efforts to contain this outbreak after it began in Mexico failed and it spread globally, infecting up to a quarter of the population and killing up to 500,000 – a death rate of approximately 0.02 per cent.

Nuzzo agrees it is plausible a coronavirus pandemic could be similar to swine flu, but says the US would be hard-pressed to manage even in this scenario.

DJ In november 2019 the US, UK and NL were the top 3 countries supposed to be most ready for a pandemic. Was that based on arrogance ? How can it be that these three "most prepared"countries turn out to be such disasterzones ? 

2-Herd immunity [url]https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808#:~:text=Even%20if%20infection%20with%20the,19%20to%20halt%20the%20epidemic.[/url] or https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/in-depth/herd-immunity-and-coronavirus/art-20486808#:~:text=Even%20if%20infection%20with%20the,19%20to%20halt%20the%20epidemic. DJ Via "controlled natural spread and/or vaccination". 

While in early 2020 China was going for very strict NPI, [url]https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/herd-immunity-through-contracting-coronavirus-never-ever-option-new-zealand-ardern-says[/url] or https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/herd-immunity-through-contracting-coronavirus-never-ever-option-new-zealand-ardern-saysJacinda Ardern says she would not tolerate tens of thousands of New Zealanders getting Covid-19 and dying for the nation to gain herd immunity before a vaccine is found.

DJ-In order to "save the economy" lots of countries went for "herd immunity" knowing it would cost "many lives". [url]https://www.containmentnu.nl/home?lang=en[/url] or https://www.containmentnu.nl/home?lang=en from march 2020 there was "growing concern" on this strategy. 

Most western countries did go for "controlled spread" of Covid19-pushing on the brakes when hospitals/ICU came close to breaking point. 

3-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide ; The United Nations Genocide Convention, which was established in 1948, defines genocide as "acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, as such" including the killing of its members, causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group, deliberately imposing living conditions that seek to "bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part", preventing births, or forcibly transferring children out of the group to another group

DJ-When you look at people dying from this "genocide by pandemic" it is-mostly-not the rich and better of, it is the old, poor, vulnerable...In some countries locked up in care centers, denied hospital/ICU care...often when the virus got into the care center people inside had little chance...

DJ-Vaccination is getting started on a very major scale these days in Europe (NL excluded...) in combination with vaccinations in the UK, US, Russia, China, Latin America millions of people will get (lots of different Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna-but a lot of countries also going for Russian and Chinese) vaccines. In 2021 a combination of "natural herd immunity" (by getting infected) and herd-immunity via vaccination is supposed to end this (man made-due to inaction) pandemic. 

(Remarkable; Cuba also working on at least two vaccines ; [url]https://oncubanews.com/en/cuba/cuba-announces-progress-in-second-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/[/url] or https://oncubanews.com/en/cuba/cuba-announces-progress-in-second-covid-19-vaccine-candidate/ )

In some countries carecenters face legal charges for how they (not) treated their patients. The bigger question however is-why governments-based on "expert opinions"-went for herd immunity. That strategy  most likely will kill over 2 million people, cause lots of long term suffering, people who lost loved ones but also people with chronic Covid19, organ damage etc. Also the economic damage-due to this "strategy" runs in the trillions of $, € or whatever currency you choose..A young generation did see here future plans ruined. 

Going for a short-strict-lockdown was the better and only choice if the idea was to prevent this pandemic. Why that choice was not made ? Allthough politicians will point their finger at "the experts"(some of them maybe linked to "Big Pharma") it is the politicians that have the final responsibility. 

-Why did airtravel go on for so long after first news of the outbreak in China ? 

-Why was/is it that difficult to start testing and contact tracing ? 

-Why-as a precaution-not go for very strict measures to begin with (several countries made a different choice and managed to keep damage limited) ? 

Here in NL "our" "liberal conservative" government is seen as "very succelfull in dealing with the pandemic", "best political archievement of 2020" when it was-and still is-a total disaster !!! In the US at least trump did not get reelected due to his faillure to deal with this pandemic. "Clown BoJo" can keep jumping up and down in the UK-he will see what 2021 will bring...

More personal-concerned citizens-like Dr. John Campbell, Chris Martenson and many others-are "put in a corner as if they are the fools". Being crazy seems to be the "new normal"...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJY2W0K0Pqo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJY2W0K0Pqo 

(US/UK update) and 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l3EYrWjGEI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0l3EYrWjGEI (Varients and vaccines-from vacca=cow...) Most of the info/links under the video's (this article is getting much to long..)

Music-Killing me softly-Roberta Flack-1973 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4A5XuMz_Tw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4A5XuMz_Tw 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 27 2020 at 2:42am

DJ,

-I tried to be optimistic (on some western countries, vaccines) in the "latest news-new variants" section. It would be so welcome if "natural immunity" via been infected (in the US 1-in-3 persons ?) and mass vaccinations would get this pandemic under control by summer 2021. I think that is a the best optimistic-realistic scenario I can think of...

[url]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-idUSKBN2900JX[/url] or https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-canada-idUSKBN2900JX with the UK variant also showing up-being recognized-in south Ontario in people without any travel history a remark. Maybe some developed countries with very good logistics, care may be able to "limit the pandemic" by summer. 

However the number of cases and deaths in 2021 most likely will be higher then in 2020. The known variants show to be 50-70% more infectious. Hospitalcare-already close to breaking point in many places-will collapse if these "variants" go on spreading. 

I (DJ) think we may face a very hard choice. If there are enough vaccines available "a lot" (90%) of HCW will be doing mass vaccinations-then top-priority...even if that means more deaths in the already very ill. "The house is on fire" but most people simply refuse to realiize it...

-From [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/12/an-orwellian-climate-while-rome-burns.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/12/an-orwellian-climate-while-rome-burns.html ;

An Orwellian climate while Rome burns


 by Andrew Glikson

The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. - Albert Einstein.

As the world is trying to hopefully recover from the tragic effects of COVID-19, it is reminded there is no vaccine for the existential threat for its life support systems posed by global warming, nor for the looming threats of future wars and nuclear wars fueled by warmongers and $trillion preparations by military-industrial complexes.

Between 1740 and 1897 some 230 wars and revolutions in Europe suggested war remained deeply ingrained in the human psyche and civilization. The question is whether the currently approaching catastrophes can be averted.

No one wishes to believe in the projections made in the recent book ‘The Uninhabitable Earth’, except that these projections, made by David Wallace-Wells, are disturbingly consistent with the current shift in state of the climate toward +4 degrees and even +6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as indicated by the current trends (Figure 1) and conveyed by leading climate scientists and the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC).
Figure 1.Global mean temperature estimates for land areas (NASA).
Facing the unthinkable consequences of global warming is pushing climate scientists into a quandary. In private conversations, many scientists express far greater concern at the trend of global warming than they do in public. However, faced with social and psychological barriers, as well as threats of losing positions and jobs, in business, public service and academia, a majority keeps silent, displaying lesser courage than school children.
According to James Hansen (2012), NASA’s former chief climate scientist: “You can’t burn all of these fossil fuels without creating a different planet”. According to Joachim Schellnhuber (2015), Germany’s chief climate scientist: ‘We’re simply talking about the very life support system of this planet’, and ‘If we don’t solve the climate crisis, we can forget about the rest’.

Referring to a phenomenon he termed “scientific reticence”, James Hansen (2007) states: “I suggest that a “scientific reticence” (namely a reluctance to convey worrying news) is inhibiting the communication of a threat of a potentially large sea level rise”.

According to Bajaj (2019): “when it comes to climate change, the need for excessive caution and absolute certainty of the results is manifesting as silence from the mainstream science on the worst yet probable consequences and the worst-case scenarios that are looking increasingly likely”. A paradox emerges where scientists who experience scientific reticence are still accused of being alarmists.

This is because an evaluation of the probability of a risk needs to be related to the magnitude of the risk. For example, the inspection of the engines of a Jumbo Jet carrying 300 passengers need to be even more rigorous than that of a commuter van, or evaluation of the risk posed by a potential failure of a nuclear reactor even more critical than that of a conventional power plant, as is the absolute safety of a particle accelerator.

By analogy with the dictum Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it projections of future climate trajectories need to take account of studies of the past behaviour of the atmosphere-ocean system. The pace of current global warming exceeds those of the last 2.6 million years by an order of magnitude, with calamitous consequences for biological systems.

As indicated by the basic laws of physics, the principles of climate science and empirical observations in nature, under an increase of greenhouse gas concentrations by about 50 percent , global warming is inevitable. While modeled future climate change trajectories may vary, depending whether observations are based on recent measurements, paleoclimate data or models, the consequences of such an increase are inevitably catastrophic. Whereas IPCC models portray linear warming trends to 2300, other models take account of the flow of ice melt water from Greenland and Antarctica into the oceans and thereby irregular warming (Glikson, 2019).

Given the warnings issued by leading climate scientists and the IPCC, while nations keep investing their dwindling $trillions in its military-industrial complexes in preparations for future war/s, our world is losing its last chance to save its planetary life support systems.

DJ-After the end of the Soviet Union NATO started a lot of "civil wars". From Yugoslavia to Syria, Yemen. The goal seems to be to get ALL of the energy (oil/gas) under NATO control. "We" supported the Taliban-like groups during the 1979-89 Soviet occupation of Afghanistan "to give the S.U. their own Viet Nam"...Pakistan ISI (working with the CIA) kept that war going on...Alquaeda was a western-CIA creation...

From the start of the Syrian "civil war" the "west"gave all room to the Turkish secret service to recrute "western people" to join IS. The CIA sending second hand trucks from the US to IS. During the IS mass murders in Bataclan in Paris France was buying oil from IS via Turkey....

-Mass insanity seems to have been a long term "normal". Is NATO a continuation of nazi-germany ? (With a "democratic cover"?)

This pandemic is man-made by government inaction....words not deeds...In climate change the same story...If we refuse to simply even learn the basics if climate change does not kill is a next pandemic will...



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 27 2020 at 10:36pm

DJ

-Let me start with one of my favorite TV programs [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5CNHDeF2xA&feature=emb_rel_pause[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L5CNHDeF2xA&feature=emb_rel_pause

M.A.S.H. and the Coronavirus. (DJ Mixing the message in TV programmes with a large crowd may be wise. Here in NL we have "All you need is love" sending the wrong message-still hugging etc. because they are supposed to be safe..)

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are low and that should not be a surprise. (Still some MSM do not relate these falling numbers with christmas). The reality is harder [url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/27/urgent-cry-help-healthcare-facilities-groningen-twente[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2020/12/27/urgent-cry-help-healthcare-facilities-groningen-twente several "safety regions" in NL (we have 25 of those regions) are asking for military assistance because basic care is becoming a problem. NL will not be the only country with these-or even worse-problems..

-Eventhough all over 5 millions vaccinations must have been done by now "new variants" are showing up allover the globe. A further increase, explosion, of cases-due to mass social mixing, new variants and less testing/reporting can become a global disaster. 

In a very optimistic scenario by summer there may be-in some countries-room for limited reopenings due to both NPI, natural and vaccine immunity. One problem has been reopening to soon-linked to another-major-problem; underestimating what a pandemic can do. 

Let me be very, very clear; in a very worst case scenario this kind of pandemic can be the end of us ! Yes-when vaccine production goes to its maximum, distribution does its job soon millions of people will be vaccinated PER DAY ! And yes-that is great news !

New variants-so far-differ less then 0,1% from the "original" making vaccines very likely to be effective. However we have to improve monitoring for new variants-stop them before they start spreading. The speed with wich new variants show up will increase, there will be a "drift" away from the "original virus". In that scenario-within months-there could be variants that may evade a vaccine....

The idea of "first world first" "because we have (stolen) the money" is insane from a pandemic point of view. New variants are very likely to show up and start spreading in countries we keep poor. There people, mixed with all kind of animals, often in mega cities with lots of slums-are already a breeding ground for new-even more deadly variants and other illnesses...

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/12/the-next-nasty-disease-arrives-milk.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/12/the-next-nasty-disease-arrives-milk.html 

Another problem is all kind of essential work getting in problems with only a limited number of cases. For logistics you need planners...air-traffic controllers, controllers in (nuclear) power plants...We do not need all to get infected to see major economic damage. 

-Dr. John Campbell with yet another update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQWWrVLMX4g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQWWrVLMX4g with lots of info/links under the video.

 -With chospital ases expected to double in one month (all over the US ?) California already is out of ICU capacity..(hospital cases tripled last month in California) Testing for UK variant has started.

 -An increase of Multi Inflamatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) in California-very likely linked to increases of Covid19 cases. (DJ from other stories there is a delay-sometimes even in weeks-before MIS-C shows up. Covid19 viral parts may already be out of the child.)

-On january 13 China published genomic info on the internet, Thailand managed to start testing did find a first case. The US started testing february 26 Dr.J.C. a delay of 46 days...(DJ 18 in january, 26 in february makes 44 days). Again with new variants CDC is "very slow in reacting". 

-Dr. J.C. started his video with statistics..NL doing worse then the US. Vaccination started in most of the EU. We-in NL-will have a small start january 8th. AstraZeneca working with Russia-if you want to deal with a pandemic DJ-you have to work worldwide. 

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XooFJ2LTgnc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XooFJ2LTgnc Gaia-Valensia 

See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaia DJ The idea that "Earth=Gaia" would "act"to restore some balance is old. [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/east-coast-alert-602-earthquakes-on-la-palma-could-cause-tsunami-wipe-out-of-entire-us-east-coast[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/east-coast-alert-602-earthquakes-on-la-palma-could-cause-tsunami-wipe-out-of-entire-us-east-coast may fit with that idea.

[url]https://www.nporadio2.nl/live[/url] or https://www.nporadio2.nl/live top2000 from NL with Dutch people dancing in their sittingrooms etc...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 28 2020 at 9:28pm

DJ (I start by putting DJ to show the following is just my opinion. Not a fact ! I am not a scientist, just someone with "an opinion")

The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ of monday december 28 reflecting testing sunday-3td Christmasday-december 27. Eventhough some governments/embedded press claim "numbers are dropping=policies are working" the obvious reason for the lower numbers is Christmas. Here in NL we do see a (sharp) increase in people seeking hospitalcare-number of tested/reported cases dropped here as well-just like the number of tests (how can serious press ignore that fact ?).

In fact NL may become the 19th country to reach the million cases, #18  (now #17) South Africa is seeing their numbers explode. The Dutch CDC RIVM claims "there is no evidence for much UK variants=so there is no problem" ...with this "wisdom" our country will be the smallest (both in area of land as in population) to reach the million cases...Peru and Poland have a population between 30 and 40 million, NL just over 17 million...Even when I look at seperate US states [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ our (Dutch) combination of bad government (cut spending on healthcare that much it can hardly function in a "normal" situation-to make the rich more rich) and bad experts manages to do worse...

We were already worldchampion in Legionella disease, Q-fever...we did it again ! Still looking at cases per million NL=#21 and deaths per million NL=# 37 there is "room for improvement"...(sorry for the sarcasm...someone on this forum has the motto "you can't fix stupid" -if we want to have a chance in this pandemic we have to fix stupid !)

-Dr.John Campbell (maybe in a better mood ?) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrM33gYXmOM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrM33gYXmOM ;

 - Statistics-[url]https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus comparing US, UK and SA cases and testing; US cases down-testing down, UK testing and cases up, SA cases up-very limited testing...(always nice for reality check-yes NL cases even higher then US per capita...)

 -Second peak now getting higher/bigger in the UK then first peak. Duration of pressure in hospital cases is becoming an increasing burden. will only get worse. Dr.J.C. is hoping/wishing/expecting AstraZeneca (UK/Sweden)/Oxford (AZ/O) vaccine to get approval today (dec 29)-would increase vaccinations to (over) a million per week for the UK. (DJ-The AZ/O vaccine can also make a big difference worldwide. Only the US has an alternative for the Pfizer(US)BioNTech(Germany) deep-freeze vaccine in the Moderna one. Both vaccines are very expensive and not that easy to transport. Germany did lose a lot of Pfizer vaccines because storage temperatures got to high...in poor countries I (DJ) think even those-most likely not/limited effective vaccins still would be used...)

 -"Vaccines against Virusses", Injections versus infections-Dr.J.C. by march the vaccines will be able to get the virus under some control...

 -An increase of over 20.000 cases in the UK on december 14 meant over 2000 infected (about 10,5%) ended up in hospital december 27. A delay of 13 days...(We may be missing a lot of milder infections-so the "real" number could be around 5% of all new infections needing hospitalcare..)

DJ-In a very serious pandemic most deaths will not be due to the virus directly, indirect deaths will be much higher-from other illnesses not getting the needed care to-in some countries-starvation, streetcrime etc. A major pandemic=chaos !)

 - While the NHS (national Health Service) and hospitals are preparing for extreme pressure the coming months outside healthcare ignoring the pandemic is still "the new normal". Even discussion on to opening schools...(DJ-Insane...)

 -UK skiiers in Switzerland-a rich elite-was demanded to go in isolation. This rich elite does not think those rules are for them, over 50% moved to France (to spread the UK variant further...) Some of that "rich scum" did contact the hotel trying to get their money back...(DJ-Why is there no government action on this ? Could it be "this rich elite"is part of the government ?)

 -US cases expected to go up after Christmas, New Year..CDC statistics giving false impressions-cases are NOT decreasing, hospital cases did go up after november 21...(but controlling numbers is easier then controlling a pandemic...)

 -Active immunity is caused by infection or vaccination-the body makes (a.o.) antibodies, has its own immune reaction. You can also produce antibodies and create "passive immunity" via injecting them in people (that did not get infected/vaccinated). Another UK study is looking at how this may offer protection. 

Treatment may work preventative, also make immunity (Active one) stronger if one gets infected...cheap and easy also in third world workable (NHS/AstraZeneca study-results january 4) Immediate protection  also in immuno repressed persons. 

Dr.J.C. again comes with his free downloads books-very nice gesture !

DJ-[url]https://southfront.org/the-year-in-retrospect-what-did-russias-military-achieve-in-2020/[/url] or https://southfront.org/the-year-in-retrospect-what-did-russias-military-achieve-in-2020/ even with this pandemic "War"seems to be a toppriority (to liberate oil/gas fields from non-NATO exploitation..)

Stay safe !

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xjDwp-wqE4&t=30s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xjDwp-wqE4&t=30s Adoro from [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armando_Manzanero[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Armando_Manzanero who died of Covid19 in Mexico City yesterday...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 12:31am

DJ-Since we are living in "interesting times"....

-Who to blame for the present pandemic ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Death[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consequences_of_the_Black_Death The Plague was spread by witches and Jews-at least that is what "the general public"loved to believe. In order to get an idea of being in control of the pandemic prosecuting outsiders with limited defense always works in a crisis. Some "politicians" always love "to join the party"...

From the article; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Jews_during_the_Black_Death[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persecution_of_Jews_during_the_Black_Death ; Jews were often taken as scapegoats and accusations spread that they had caused the disease by deliberately poisoning wells.[2][3] This is likely because they were affected less than other people,[4][5] since many Jews chose not to use the common wells of towns and cities.[1] Jews were also sometimes coerced through torture to confess to poisoning wells.[1]

DJ Masks, social isolation may protect against the virus but "other means" may be needed to defend oneself against "Covidiots" going wild when public order breaks down. "We" trying to understand how pandemics work may become an easy victum. I (DJ) have to confess I did deliberately spread the virus because "there was no Covid19"to begin with...it was not worse then the flu...

Who will start spreading this kind of insanity soon ? Those that were against all measures to control the pandemic to begin with. And yes-some rich institutions are already financing "for freedom"groups claiming Covid19 only will kill those who are a burden anyway. 

(Just like climate change is denied by the fossil fuel industry-even financing their own "research" and politicians/political parties..It would be very welcome if political parties and policians would have to be open who is paying for their campains. A democracy becomes "democrazy" when funding of political parties is kept secret on the ground of "privacy"...Here in NL people sometimes are unable to get their own info from the tax department on grounds of "privacy"...)

The Black Death did give a boost to medicine; more emphasis was placed on "anatomical investigations" following the Black Death.[46] How individuals studied the human body notably changed, becoming a process that dealt more directly with the human body in varied states of sickness and health. Further, at this time, the importance of surgeons became more evident.[46]

DJ Social differences are growing faster now. People are getting more aware of who did spread the virus and how. Expensive hollidays, flying allover the globe was not what most people did. The first wave in Europe this spring was started by people going skiing, the second wave was related to people going to France, Spain during the summer (including our minister of health...)

Still some elite are on winterholliday..they will go on spreading now the UK variant..

-If you can not get a grip on the pandemic-get a grip on the story ! Claiming cases are decreasing-by decreasing testing capacity-may help if you are in an election ! 

This older story [url]https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-how-5-viral-lines-of-defense-prevent-a-lockdown/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-how-5-viral-lines-of-defense-prevent-a-lockdown/ (by Jelmer Visser now so frustrated by how this pandemic is dealt with he stopped making statistics on spread in NL and the world. He also seems to believe the UK variant may well come from NL-the country that did allow most of the mink farms to get infected before any action..) gives 5 "lines of defense"; Public awareness is #1, testing#2, contact tracing#3...DJ Public support for any strong measures always is for a short time. Communication-a clear (and valid) message is essential...

Some "people in charge"admitted "the virus (variants) is out of control". Media has a duty in translating what that means-not act surprised if hospitals can no longer deal with the number of cases...

-As if [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Inconvenient_Truth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/An_Inconvenient_Truth does not go far enough [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/12/an-orwellian-climate-while-rome-burns.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/12/an-orwellian-climate-while-rome-burns.html goes even further; 

Facing the unthinkable consequences of global warming is pushing climate scientists into a quandary. In private conversations, many scientists express far greater concern at the trend of global warming than they do in public. However, faced with social and psychological barriers, as well as threats of losing positions and jobs, in business, public service and academia, a majority keeps silent, displaying lesser courage than school children.

According to James Hansen (2012), NASA’s former chief climate scientist: “You can’t burn all of these fossil fuels without creating a different planet”. According to Joachim Schellnhuber (2015), Germany’s chief climate scientist: ‘We’re simply talking about the very life support system of this planet’and ‘If we don’t solve the climate crisis, we can forget about the rest’.

Referring to a phenomenon he termed “scientific reticence”, James Hansen (2007) states: “I suggest that a “scientific reticence” (namely a reluctance to convey worrying news) is inhibiting the communication of a threat of a potentially large sea level rise”.

DJ "Self censorship" as a new norm in science ! What role will self censorship play in this pandemic ? "Out of control" is more then healthcare breaking down-it is societies breaking down.

In some countries there is hardly any government-war lords rule society...There society breaking down means more death and starvation. For the "rich countries" this pandemic could mean more refugees (to deny entry. We start wars-for oil- but will not accept the consequences). 

The biggest risk of the present pandemic may be in the duration. We have been in this disaster for ten months-and it is only getting worse...

The combination with climate collapse and this pandemic makes me wonder-are we at "the beginning of the end"? Will the promise of Summer saving us, herd immunity as a rescue be followed by vaccinations not providing the safety they would bring long enough to get us out of this pandemic ? 

Music-I put a spell on you CCR-Woodstock footage [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeXqtzusIU0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xeXqtzusIU0 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 10:27pm

DJ

Lots of news, let me first react to "no a-symptomatic spread" claims. We are in a worsening pandemic. Even if a (quite likely good) study puts some questionmarks on a/pre-symptomatic spread-this is not the moment to act as if a/presymptomatic spread is NOT a problem. Basicly-this pandemic, the new variants, is NOT under control. We are in a worsening healthcrisis in most of the countries. 

In the UK the extra restrictions "act as if you are infected" fail-so far to get a grip. The "UK-variant" (to give it a name-may come from NL, DK-mink relation ?) is very hard to get under control-is spreading very fast outside the UK. What we now know of the SA variant is even worse...(from other variants we only know they may be there, Nigeria, Iran...).

There should not even be a discussion on "pre" symptomatic spread (wich is a form of a-symptomatic spread-symptoms come later on)-with cases "exploding" pre-symptomatic spread is a main motor behind the present unfolding global disaster...

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are at pre-christmas level and may be "hard to interpret"; 

1.There has been/still is a delay in testing/reporting-numbers up as compensation for less testing/reporting during Christmas. 

2. Lots of people have a holliday during this time of year and may"try to sit it out", when I look at NL hospitals-they are getting into a crisis-sometimes close their doors...

3. Lockdowns/closing schools should have an effect. Here in NL a lot less young people show (so far) signs of infection. 

DJ-Here in NL the RIVM/Dutch CDC wants to be safe with its conclusions-it is to early to tell. Lockdowns should have brought down the numbers more drasticly. The "UK-variant" is pushing the numbers up...

DJ-The a-symptomatic spread discussion is a very important one. If-in the US-over 100 million people may have already had the Covid19 infection-most of them with no or only mild symptoms (a CDC study I believe) then a-symptomatic spread is 90%+ of all the spread...! Other studies claim 40%, 20% spread. Point is also what the defenition of illness is that is being spread...one could claim no/mild symptom spread is spreading a "mich milder form" of covid19. 

DJ-If a=mild and A=severe maybe the 90%+ asymptomatic spread looks like a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-A-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-a-A-a-a etc. 

[url]https://www.rt.com/news/511009-coronavirus-pandemic-very-severe-not-the-big-one/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/511009-coronavirus-pandemic-very-severe-not-the-big-one/ DJ-We are far away from getting out of this pandemic. Yes [url]https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/12/29/641772/Iran-COVID-vaccine-coronavirus[/url] or https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/12/29/641772/Iran-COVID-vaccine-coronavirus vaccines look promissing-may change the situation over several months...We soon may be seeing over 1 million global vaccinations per day-that is good !

The bad news is the real number of new infections must have been much higher then those in the statistics. With the new variants reported cases go up very fast. Society comes to a halt...

Claims get repeated; the "UK variant" does not bring more severe disease-but when the number of cases go beyond carecapacity that claim simply is incorrect. Looking at the numbers there are "indications" the UK variant is related with an increase of deaths.. The SA variant-even less info-may hit younger people harder...

Here in NL in Rotterdam-area the UK variant may have been around a school in november. Infecting 40 people. A teacher 40-y/o died. They try to get more data/info. (Sequencing is a lot of work so far-finding out how many "UK variants" there are is not that easy. In the Rotterdam area they will test 10.000 samples for the "UK-variant"...

On "variants" they become the new motor of spread. (So I stop the latest news "new variants" for at least the UK variant). 

[url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-risk-assessment-spread-new-sars-cov-2-variants-eueea[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/covid-19-risk-assessment-spread-new-sars-cov-2-variants-eueea 

DJ Another issue is new variants and animals [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2020/12/articles/miscellaneous/new-sars-cov-2-variant-animal-considerations/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2020/12/articles/miscellaneous/new-sars-cov-2-variant-animal-considerations/ 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/who-chief-scientist-warns-no-evidence-covid-vaccine-prevents-viral-transmission[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/who-chief-scientist-warns-no-evidence-covid-vaccine-prevents-viral-transmission ;

DJ-One can get vaccinated-may not get ill oneself -but still can spread the virus to others...

Dr.John Campbell-update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW7A-6H_qNk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RW7A-6H_qNk (info/links under the video) ;

-On the "UK variant"; does spread 50/55% faster, no risk of reinfection, vaccine should work. DJ-Maybe the virus itself will not bring more severe disease or increase risk of death. Great !!! The problem is hospitalcare is overstretched so YES due to the numbers (!!!!) there are much more risks !!!! (If you want to alarm the public do not downplay the risk !!!)

-Dr.J.C. "hopes" the UK variant will not get the dominant one outside the UK (DJ-It most certainly will may be spreading full speed already...to put it exponential 1%-2%-4%-8%-16%-32%-64%-all cases...the time between doubling will decrease as cases go up-it may be a week, two weeks to get from 1% to 2% but jumping from 50% to 100% (of new infections) may take just a few days...)

-Dr.J.C. "hopes"the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine will get aprovval december 30 (he has been "hoping" for some days now-I understand his "hopes"...) DJ Dr.J.C. was correct for the UK [url]https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55280671[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55280671

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has been approved for use in the UK, with the first doses due to be given on Monday amid rising coronavirus cases.

The UK has ordered 100 million doses - enough to vaccinate 50 million people.

This will cover the entire population, when combined with the full order of the Pfizer-BioNTech jab, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.

It comes as millions more people in England are expected to be placed under the toughest tier four restrictions.

-The spread of the "UK-variant" (Variant Of Concern 2020-12-01) and the SA one in most countries-including most of the EU and US-remains undetected due to lack of testing/sequencing. (DJ-They are working on "the S(=part 69/70) -dropout" some other small changes that make detection of these variants easier-but what you need is sequencing the whole virus ! You have to have "radar" to find new variants that are on their way. And getting labs/scientist to do that job will cost a lot of money and time...It should have been there by now-this virus has his first birthday some weeks ago...) 

-PCR Covid testing looks at 3 segments of the virus. One part is 69/70. If that part is missing in 99% of the cases the test picked up the new variant...(Sequencing may take up to two weeks...you will be running behind new variants...)

-DJ-The UK study was retrospective, working with samples from a certain timespan. If you can detect the pattern with wich (in different area's (rural, urban) rhe new variant spreads one may make a model for the spread outside the UK..Maybe we are still in the early phase of variant spread-may be hard to detect-but most certainly NO reason to stop looking for it. It could be widespread in a few weeks...The sooner you know the sooner you can alarm people...)

-DJ 1-in-a-1000 people get reinfected-as far there is data. Goes for the old "wild" variant as well as for the new "UK-variant". (But data is very limited). Vaccines should still work (both the "SA" and "UK" variants differ less then 0,1% from the "old/wild"type...however the further away a virus gets from its original the less effective the vaccine may get...monitoring/sequencing should be top-priority !!!)

-On if the "UK variant" does spread more severe disease/or milder disease...the study looks at info till first half of december. Widespread UK variant may have become major in november for most of the UK. DJ-It may be to early to make any claims...problem may be more in increased (50/55%) spread...with healthcare at breaking point. (It would be very welcome if the UK variant did bring most milder cases-was a step towards Covid19 becoming a sort of cold-virus..)

-The "UK-variant" being 50/55% more infectious is based on a study (october-november cases)  of contact tracing. Compared to "the old/wild variant" on this statistics that rate of 50/55% more infections is based...DJ In other circumstances background can be a factor. Will the UK variant spread faster or slower in a country like India ? Will summer see much lower "extra spread"of this new variant ? The study gives a first-usefull indication. But this spread is still going on...Another question is age groups-does this new variant spread more in a younger age group ? 

 DJ-If one could make a "new variant"spreading much faster but only giving very mild illness would that be a strategy to deal with this pandemic ? Like a "counter fire"to fight a wildfire-the man made mild virus taking away room to spread for the more dangerous variants ??? I admit it would be a very risky, unethical, thing to do. But if there is no other way to get this virus/variants under control ? Of course this pandemic is man-made due to inaction. If that inaction/running behind the facts goes on vaccines (warpspeed was a good US action-but it may not be enough and there were better alternatives earlier..)

DJ-Increased by 50/55% cases of an illness-with the (UK-known) variant not bringing milder disease is very bad news. Hospitalcare is unable to deal with the influx. To many people are not willing to accept much limits...The unknown variants may be (much) worse. The outlook for 2021 is "not good at all" ..

Still central banks put trillions in pumping up shares on "good news" , vaccines, clear Brexit, US support program..there is a very major dis-connection between reality "on the ground" and "the world of the elite 9also running the central banks-in that way stealing our money by putting money in pumping up shares..we will have to pay for that "economic stimulus"..)

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmePW1unnqs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SmePW1unnqs Peak Prosperity is going for interviews with doctors in a congress hearing asking critical questions on why Ivermectin is not used-only government putting money in big pharma...etc. (Just like on climate change "Orwellian" reality..)

Music-Eventide Carpenters [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCJXppZVA4E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCJXppZVA4E 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 9:53pm

DJ,

-Some short news items; In Nigeria three people tested positive for the "old" Covid19 AND the new UK variant.

-In the US, a California nurse did get Covid19 a few days after been vaccinated. The man 45 worked with Covid19 patients did get vaccinated december 18-first symptoms december 24. Vaccines take several days to offer protection-if two shots are needed just one shot may not offer enough protection to deal with this pandemic. People getting Covid19 after (the first) vaccination may result in the virus evading vaccine.

-In Nigeria [url]https://guardian.ng/news/why-covid-19-vaccines-may-lose-potency-before-arrival-administration/[/url] or https://guardian.ng/news/why-covid-19-vaccines-may-lose-potency-before-arrival-administration/ Pfizer, Moderna needs -70C storage-countries like Nigeria may not have good infrastructure for usage all over the country. (DJ Still Lagos [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagos[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagos may have over 20 million in population-10% of all of Nigeria).

-In SA a lot of reinfections seem to show up-but since testing is very limited it may be hard to be very certain...it may be a false indication. [url]https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-sparks-fear-of-faster-spread-possible-reinfection-11609358056[/url] or https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-variant-in-south-africa-sparks-fear-of-faster-spread-possible-reinfection-11609358056 

The statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

DJ-Due to limited testing and reporting during Christmas (and alcohol-use and good testing may not be a perfect combination) one has to look at the numbers with some reservation. How far the "UKV" (UK Variant) did go global may be hard to judge on basis of present statistics-more clear-and very likely higher-numbers will show up in the coming month. 

-The 14,748 reported global deaths is a new record

-The almost 720.000 new cases is not a record number and most likely higher due to delayed testing

-In new cases UK at #3 with over 55,000 new cases and 1224 deaths. SA at #9-less testing still high numbers...

The "UK variant" is most likely very widespread from the US, Chile to Taiwan, Japan...even with restrictions the numbers go up. 

Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pj4_aK-j8I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pj4_aK-j8I update;

-AstraZeneca/Oxford (AZ/O) vaccine approved in the UK-will get produced in (over) 30 countries-from the US to Russia, easy storage, cheap to produce-will see global distribution in large numbers the coming month. Three billion vaccines produced in one year. vaccination will start january 4-2021.

-It is an Adeno-virus vaccine after one shot in three/four weeks 70/80% immunity-if people do get infected after that often milder-no hospital need. Strategy in UK may be giving all in the population a first shot..

-Second vaccination may give long term immunity (but just ONE vaccination could get us out of this crisis). 

-MHRA (UK-FDA) did not approve 1/2 dose-full dose strategy

-Pfizer also has room, one does not have to get a second shot after three weeks-it can wait some weeks to give room for crisis intervention. 

DJ !!!! We are in a global healthcrisis-maybe biggest crisis since the Spanish flu-or even worse since our society is that more easy to get out of balance !!!! Vaccines does not prevent vaccinated people still spreading the virus-they themselves may not get ill but could still spread the virus. There must be much more variants...vaccination may give these new mutations less room. In my opinion the UK variant showing up all around the globe means we will be in this global crisis for at least another six months. Vaccination and vaccine production has its limits. China, Iran, Cuba are getting close to mass production of their vaccines-wich will make a difference in Africa, Latin America, but it will take months to make that difference !

-For the AZ/O vaccine-a second dose can be given between 4 and 12 weeks later to get full protection (DJ you may choose to go for full protection in HCW, police, fire dept. etc)-a longer gap may offer more protection.

-Oxford already working on making vaccine able to deal with (new) variants-present vaccine should be able to deal with UK variant (UKV-they should come up with a better name..easy to use; december20-variant1=D20V1 ?)

-Storage at 4c may work half a year. One could put the vaccine in a cold box and use that all day.. 

Dr. J.C. goes on whit a list of countries that will use-and often produce-the vaccine. DJ This may the first vaccine to have a global impact-both due to low price (free for "poor" countries) and easy to use/store/produce. more info under the video. 

[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/511116-world-first-covid19-antidote/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/511116-world-first-covid19-antidote/

Russia's Federal Medical and Biological Agency (FMBA) has announced the development of a drug to fight against Covid-19, which would become the world's first direct-acting antiviral antidote if clinical trials are successful.

According to Veronika Skvortsova, the head of FMBA, studies thus far have shown it is more than 99% effective.

“This is the first etiotropic drug that directly affects the virus. In fact, this is an antidote for coronavirus infection,” she informed Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin on Wednesday, noting that preclinical studies have been completed, which have shown the remedy to be “completely safe” and “highly efficient.”

Etiotropic means that the treatment is directed against the cause of a disease.

DJ-This pandemic is-slowly-getting under control by NPI, (lots of) vaccines and treatment. It is not over yet-I think we may have better perspective second half of 2021. 

Music; Golden Earing-Twilight Zone [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1sf2CzEq0w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a1sf2CzEq0w 

Have a good new years eve-happy new year !



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2020 at 10:08pm

DJ

-First of all my best wishes for 2021, let us hope the year will end better then it started...

If you want "feel good stories" go to MSM. I do not want to be "over alarming", try to be as realistic as I can...eventhough that sometimes may be hard. In this pandemic the "good news" is the AstraZeneca vaccine, and some other easy to produce, use, store cheap vaccines. My guess is that the same amount of transport capacity needed for 1000 Pfizer vaccines may be able to transport over 100.000 AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine...You need to keep that AZ/O vaccine at fridge temperature-transport to location and staff to vaccinate...cold-boxes on bikes my do the trick...

Now the bad news. The december 31 statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ have a record number of cases. In total 736,704 cases...the old record number was dec 17 736,117 (and included a large Turkish correction ?). The present number may also have some "after Christmas" testing and reporting. A main factor most likely will be the variants spreading around the globe...being much more infectious. 

Others did report of hospitals in the UK, US at breaking point, I did report warnings from NL. Healthcare will collapse at many places. The variants may not get spread evenly-even within (smaller) countries so the picture may be confusing for now...

(DJ-I could not get to this site for over an hour-technical problem ? I fall back to Dr.J.C.)

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-sQuJanJSs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-sQuJanJSs 

-In the UK the "old variant" may be spreading in "lower tier" area's at R) of 0,88 with the UK-V (by lack of a better short name) may be spreading at R0 of 1,25. Indicating far more stricter restrictions are needed (longer) to get a grip on this new UK variant..

- Statistics world-wide do not give correct info over this pandemic due to less testing and reporting...(DJ that is bad..many countries have strict lockdowns-statistics is one way of getting a picture of how this pandemic is going...)

- In the US over 125,000 hospital cases, 23,609 now on ICU, 7930 on ventilators...Both in the UK and US hospital cases at record levels..In the US vaccination not going very fast...(DJ Israel did get 650.000 people, over 7% of its population, vaccinated in the second half of december !!)

- (CNN;) Approval of the AstraZeneca/Oxford (AZ/O) vaccine in the US may come in april....(DJ-As far as I know also the EMA in EU has not had a request for approval of AZ/O vaccine in the EU...so they did not yet even start a decission..There have been some reports on "big pharma" trying to block/delay AZ/O research. Both the Pfizer and Moderna US vaccines are for profit-and there is trillions of profits if they can keep better cheaper vaccines of the market; claim "false competition" etc. DJ The sick face of blind capitalism...)

-"Spanish Flu", Zica, Ebola (a river in Congo) virus often get a geographic label-the UK/Kent variant now also is VOC-2020-12-1 or B.1.1.7 DJ-for clear conversation it would be very welcome if there is a clear name on these variants...

-Spread of UK-V in the US is ongoing (Colorado two national guard men (at least one man..working in a care facility. There all 26 people tested positive for the OLD Covid19-four died...? ) with no UK travel history, California cases reported)

-UK-V seems to be infecting more under 20 people. A higher viral load would indicate more severe disease-we are not seeing that for the UK-V..

-Dr.J.C.-The "UK variant" has been detected in the UK since the UK is doing 45% of global testing. The US "claim" the three cases "must be the "UK variant" is based on hardly any sequencing in the US...The "UK-V" may have come from the US...(DJ One or more US variants may be from SA, or even new US variants-if you do not have serious sequencing you do not have any data..) The US may be able-in the coming months-to do 3500 sequencing of samples per week (DJ-I believe even NL is doing better then that !!! And NL is making a terrible mess..)

-DJ-On "RIC" vaccinations Dr.J.C. depends on western publications/media. It may not be the best source-but Russia, Iran, China could improve their public relations...their vaccines may be needed...

DJ-From NL the "old" Covid has been detected in 30 cats, 20 dogs often they may have gotten the infection from their owner. As far as is known no "pet-spread" of Covid19 between pets or from pets to humans..so far. We have to see how "variants" wark out in pets-it could be (if there is a stronger mink-link) these new variants may turn out to be a bigger risk for animals and further spread in other species...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/doctors-from-around-world-warn-dont-take-covid-vaccine[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/doctors-from-around-world-warn-dont-take-covid-vaccine DJ-I know it is HT. The vaccine these "doctors" are warning for (here in NL at least one anti-vaccination "doctor" turned out not to be a doctor at all) are the mRNA-and they claim a link between mRNA vaccines and auto-immune disease...The AstraZeneca, Sputnik-5 (Russia) is chimpansee adeno virus vaccine, the mRNA vaccine may be new. 

The HT "film" may be totally fake still it will get widespread and needs an answer..looks like a mix of doctors put together with a sauce of "corona is a hoax" over it. While some doctors are not saying that...[url]https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/18/coronavirus-americans-protest-stay-at-home[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/18/coronavirus-americans-protest-stay-at-home ;

Yet while organisers claim the protests are grassroots- and people-driven, a closer look reveals a movement driven by traditional rightwing groups, including one funded by the family of Trump’s education secretary, Betsy DeVos.

The rallies have drawn comparisons to the Tea Party movement, which sprang into life in 2009 following the election of Barack Obama and was driven in part by Americans for Prosperity, a group founded by rightwing donors Charles and David Koch.

As with the Tea Party, the anti-stay-at-home movement has been promoted by a rightwing media eager for the economy to reopen, including Fox News which on Friday aired a segment on protests in Virginia, Michigan and Minnesota. Two minutes later, Trump tweeted to his 77.4 million followers the need to “liberate” those states.

DJ-Anti vaccination campains worsen the pandemic. Hal Turner published a video of a nurse getting vacinated and fainting as if the nurse died after the Covid-shot...garbage..Also Zero Hedge, more and more, seems to be spreading non-sense..paid by who ? The same people claiming climate change is a hoax ? Why ? The "best propaganda" is lies mixed with reality...and it is doing a lot of serious damage..

Also if "big pharma" is going for "big profit" and claim "false competition" from non-profit vaccines we do need leaders to get a grip on Big Pharma...

Music; Happy New Year-lyrics AbbA [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ-kHc_ft4g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJ-kHc_ft4g 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2021 at 10:34pm

DJ

-Some thoughts (the one on vaccines I put with the latest news part on vaccines) on "chronic Covid19".

 -Most likely most of the problem of people getting chronic Covid19 is in the immune system of people. May have less to do with the virus(load). Some immunity systems seem to be unable (in part) to get out of "fight the virus"mode. My impression is also a virus infection can "deregulate" the body in for example getting vitamin B12 out of food...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoimmune_disease[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autoimmune_disease DJ I believe the percentage woman =80/90% man=20/10% 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome DJ-In many countries ME/CFS was treated as "a mental disorder" while it most likely is a body reaction. The distribution is the same as with (other) autoimmune disease. Most likely CFS/ME is the long term outcome of an infection...

In this Covid19 pandemic some estimates claim 10% "of infected" may develop chronic health problems (lasting over 3 months-CFS/ME is often a life-long health issue). 

-Another point "of infected" ...In the US over 100 million people are supposed to have been in contact with Covid 19. Only 1 in 5 did get tested positive. (So 2% of ALL infected having longer term health problems ???)

In the US/Colorado story two National Guards men (Dr.J.C. was not sure if they were both men-of all identified 4 cases in the US for the UK-V they are men ???) they were working in a care center. All 26 patients had the "old" Covid-they were the only two with a new variant. Could it be they already had the old Covid in an asymptomatic way ? The UK (?) variant (only ?) showing up in re-infections ? 

-The "UK Variant" (UK-V) is 50/55 % more infectious..in the UK with already lots of restrictions. (DJ-I love "simple" but reality is always more complex). The idea of global numbers going up from 600.000 per day to 900.000 per day (+50%) of course is to simple...

 -In those 600.000 new cases per day there are already lots of "variants" included (the UK now over 50.000 new cases per day=over 50% will be the new "UK-V")

 -In countries with "very limited acceptance"of any rules (US, NL) soon the UK variant may show to be over 55% extra infectious...the variants get all the room to spread. The US had around 200.000 new cases per day for some time. Could that go double ? 

 The "South Africa Variant"(SA-V) seems to be more infectious (infecting also younger people most likely because it is summer in SA. Young people celebrating hollidays etc...maybe also resulting in higher viral loads=more severe disease due to how the population deals with the virus..)

 -Lots of countries now going for even stricter rules/NPI-should result in lower cases...my (DJ) guess for daily cases worldwide end of january somewere between 600.000 and 700.000 (with 300.000 from the US ?)???

Looking at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

End of 2020 had 84,4 million cases, 1,8 million deaths...without restrictions, masks etc those numbers could have been even higher...

-Good info at [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/12/the-year-of-masks-ends-the-year-of-vaccines-arises.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/12/the-year-of-masks-ends-the-year-of-vaccines-arises.html 

Dr.John Campbell with another update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-jqf6i5OLc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-jqf6i5OLc ;

-Vaccine strategy; try to give many people first just one vaccination to at least improve "herd/group-immunity"...Pfizer after one vaccination may give 90% protection from "getting very ill", the AstraZeneca seems to offer 100% (as good as) protection from getting in hospital...since this is a very serious emergency and a second vaccine can still "boost" immunity later on-would it not be wiser to go for maximum number of people at least getting some protection ?  (DJ-reality check; there is no other option. Healthcare is collapsing now...with mass vaccination and strict NPI we may "recover" (basic) healthcare within months (if not all doctors, nurses get infected...)

- India approved the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine (AZ/O)-will also be manufacturing it-on a major scale. Even if it was only-first-for domestic use (from wednesday january 6) India has a population of 1,3 billion...Why are the US and EU "that slow" in accepting the AstraZeneca vaccine ? (DJ-Big Pharma=Big profit-pressure ???) 

Dr.J.C. is right-we are in a very serious global health crisis (DJ-maybe even worse then the Spanish Flu-due to risk of "variants/reinfections". Getting the Flu gives immunity-getting Covid19 may-in to many cases-not provide enough immunity...!!!!).

-EU member states could (and should DJ) decide to approve the AstraZeneca vaccine on their own. DJ-If the EMA is not doing a good job get rid of the EMA ! In the US it looks like the FDA "will take a look at the AZ/O vaccine in april....

DJ-This pandemic already is "man made" in the sense that "those in power" made wrong choices from the early start. In an effort to "save the economy" they are destroying the economy...Strict NPI/Lockdown would have prevented this pandemic in february (after the Wuhan-China lockdown) 2020...If "for profit companies" can go for "false competition due to non-profit vaccines"in the EU and US the ideology is "sick"...

-The AZ/O=$2,18 per dose, Pfizer=20$, Moderna=22,06/38$ per dose...(Dr.J.C. do you think of the poor share holders ?   They have a right for profit ? It is a "free market"after all...so that means we can exclude non-profit vaccines till after the pandemic by controlling the FDA/EMA...) DJ Also storing/transportation costs for Pfizer/Moderna are "extreme" due to -70C...FedEx, UPS, DHL make a lot of money out of logistics...

-DJ-NL is the only EU country not yet vaccinating...it may start on january 8th..or 18th...if we have enough people to do the vaccinations...and "our" government has decided who gets vaccinated...Hospital workers were supposed to get vaccinated in the summer...but since by then there may be no hospital worker left it could be they get vaccinated earlier...We have the Pfizer vaccines "in a safe place" and as long as they are there they are safe...If you do not vaccinate there will be no mistakes made during vaccination...

On march 20 there will be elections in NL. One would expect this bunch of incompetent idiots to be send away...it looks like they even get more votes...maybe I have to think of moving to Iceland or so...

-During testing vaccines findings suggest longer gaps then 3/4 weeks even increased the vaccine effectivity...The idea of going for just one vaccine comes from medical government advisors in the UK. Peer-reviewed studies-should be safe. AZ/O would prevent 100% of hospital cases after 1 vaccination..(From monday january 4 UK will go for one full dose AZ/O vaccination..)

-Pfizer 52% protection-in the early stages after one dose. But if people do get infected after one dose they will still get less ill.

Idea is still 12 weeks after first vaccine to provide second-boost-vaccine. DJ-Since we are in a global health crisis I can imagine getting as much people (on a voluntary base) vaccinated at least once is top-priority. Maybe giving "essential jobs" protection via a second vaccination only...

-Since Pfizer production capacity is limited (and the US is the only one ?? also using Moderna) AZ/O in the UK, Argentine, India (and Sputnik-5, Chinese, Cuba vaccins, etc) will have to do the job in mass vaccination. (Dr.J.C. mentions 1 million people per week in the UK getting the vaccine....that number has to go up a lot. Israel may be even getting close to a few hundred thousend vaccines PER DAY !!!). Logistics, administration is already a problem-a.o. in Germany slowing down mass vaccination...

 [url]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948757/Greenbook_chapter_14a_v4.pdf[/url] or https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948757/Greenbook_chapter_14a_v4.pdf on Covid19 vaccination-instructions/info

-DJ-PP/CM is "more able" to understand the greed motive...the "economic part" of this pandemic. Lots of "governments" are allergic for government actions...the (insane) ideology is "market has to do it"...Blind capitalism, unbalanced for public interest is destroying, killing us...

The AZ/O vaccine is "non-profit" may sound to "socialist"? The way many countries are dealing with this pandemic so far is criminal. (Here in NL again blame the citizen...).

History did show what destruction a pandemic can/will bring...we soon will see it again in many streets...logistics/food production may be next in line, than safety/security...a "civil society" needs a balance. Just like climate change this pandemic "does not fit" in the brains of those making decisions...(like hitler moving army groups that were not there any more in april '45..). 

-Good communications on both vaccines and what a pandemic can do will help to get support for NPI, vaccines...but it looks like those in power seem to be unable to understand it themselves....I was hoping "you can fix stupid" I may be wrong..stay safe !

Music; Dan Fogelberg-Nether Lands [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePrQFaB50w0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePrQFaB50w0 






We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2021 at 3:07am

DJ,

Since some "politicians" seem to be total fools-in short and easy words they may understand; (DJ-Not that I think a lot of politicians read this..)

-We are NOW (that is at this moment !) in a very major healthcrisis in wich hospitals are not able to deal with the demand for help !

-Strict lockdowns/NPI-and enforcing those rules-can slow down spread NOW !

-Vaccination may offer protection for those getting vaccinated within several days-giving at least some protection HCW-ers can do their job. Vaccination should start NOW !!!

-If "politicians" think this is the time "for competition of vaccines", non-profit cheap vaccines goes against their "beliefs" of competition they do not get the urgency. If countries/states can get vaccination going without FDA/EMA obstruction they should get started...

We should do everythingh to avoid [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse !

History [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse#Disease_outbreaks[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse#Disease_outbreaks provide evidence of what out of control pandemics can do. 

Vaccines are there, NPI does work-communication has to improve-act NOW-this is an emergency !!!

DJ-Statistics may indicate less people went testing New Years Eve/New Years Day-less cases reported. There is enough evidence of UK-variants and SA-variants spreading in many area's around the globe. Immediate action is needed urgently. 

For "us" as citizens if we can we should go for even more isolation/social distancing and preparing for a major crisis. Panic soon may start as the "wider public" realizes how big the crisis is...ill people can not get any aid any longer...Food delivery/logistics gets a problem due to many people working there getting ill. 

As always-I hope I am wrong...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2021 at 9:38pm

DJ

Just a reminder-today one year ago [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani the US murdered Iran general Qasem Soleimani at the start of his diplomatic visit to Baghdad-Iraq. The failure to condemn this murder by most western countries did further damage the western position in the world. (DJ-Maybe in the US it is okay to kill a man you do not like-in international diplomacy that is not a good way to make friends). 

A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ still do show effects of christmas/new year in reporting cases.  (DJ Worldometers did show the US getting above 20 million cases earlier-because they also include "overseas parts of the US (Samoa, Virgin Islands etc) in their numbers-will they report today to US recordbreaking numbers ?) 

Other news media report the US has 275.000 new cases in just one day-january 2. [url]https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/02/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/02/health/us-coronavirus-saturday/index.html ;

"This is about total collapse of the health care system if we have another spike," Spellberg said.
"And we, in the hospital, cannot stop that. We can only react to it. It is the public that has the power to put a stop to the spread of this virus by obeying the public health guidance that have been put out."

DJ-Healthcare is at breaking point in many countries. The US, UK, NL "most prepared for a pandemic" are in worst shape. 

-Israel [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-has-vaccinated-800000-people-in-12-days/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-has-vaccinated-800000-people-in-12-days/ still [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/lockdown-is-not-working-says-coronavirus-director/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/lockdown-is-not-working-says-coronavirus-director/ cases going up fast [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ worldometers reporting over 6200 new cases january 1. That with a lockdown. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/hundreds-israelis-get-infected-covid-after-receiving-pfizer-vaccine-amid-frenzied[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/hundreds-israelis-get-infected-covid-after-receiving-pfizer-vaccine-amid-frenzied .

DJ Vaccination only protects the vaccinated from getting very ill within a week/ten days after vaccination. The AstraZeneca/Oxford seems to offer as good as 100% protection for hospital/severe cases. Pfizer scores less (Dr.John Campbell in yesterdays video explained).  DJ-If a lot of people get the virus after vaccination the virus may see some effects..also vaccination does NOT prevent spreading the virus...

-New variants

DJ-I am NOT a scientist ! I think very simple-to simple often...Virologists can tell much more on how virusses react on vaccines, treatments (carbon20 posted a good national geographic article in the news segment-new variants). The (simple) reasoning i have is that the more widespread the virus gets the more "mistakes"there will be in reproduction of the virus...We are at 85 million human reported infections-the real number of people that have been in contact most likely is over a billion. Outside humans over 20 million (?) minks, thousends of pets must have been infected. 

With the UK and SA variants being even more infections I expect the number of new variants (like in a tree growing new branches) to "increase/explode". Most likely treatments, vaccinations, people/species getting different variants will worsen that picture...

Can "we" deal with it ? Yes-but we have to make vaccines (production/getting people vaccinated) top-priority (and "we" are still not doing that !!). We have to go for even stricter lockdown to keep the spread of the virus as low as we can...(I did go to a supermarket once a week at a quiet moment to get things I could not get online on time-I now try to avoid even doing that..Walk, go out-but try to get in places where you will not find that many people...). 

To avoid getting even more dangerous variants that may get away further from vaccines (the UK-V and SA-V are still 99,9% the old variant of Covid19) action is needed NOW ! If AstraZeneca/Oxford, Sputnik-5, Chinese vaccines are able to increase production they should be enabled to do so. Approval of one country/authority should be enough for lots of countries in this crisis...

DJ-(Allthough I do not expect anyone of influence reading this) Act NOW !!! or lose the battle !!! 

-Dr.John Campbell talking to Karli R.N. (Registered Nurse) in Oregon US [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFfYM6e377s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFfYM6e377s (she had been in his video may 22) DJ-Karli is a cardiac nurse-happy to talk with Dr.J.C. but her expression changes when she starts talking on how it was dealing with this pandemic...the duration is putting that much pressure on HCW. Also-allthough there was a lot of local support-government support did fail. DJ-This must be a factor in many countries-do politicians only care about getting re-elected ? 

Her husband is from Australia..so she can see the differences in how governments reacted (DJ-PM [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Morrison[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Morrison is also "liberal/conservative-in many ways proberbly not that far away-political-from trump)

From enforcing mask-rules to visitors to wildfires destroying homes of co-workers while they are giving care to patients...it has been hard in 2020. 


DJ Music School-Supertramp (with mini-movie in clip) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvIc6vBxwDI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EvIc6vBxwDI 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2021 at 9:57pm

DJ,

Due to NOT stopping air travel, NOT stopping schools, NOT closing borders in time we are in a global pandemic. The present crisis is the worst crisis since World War 2, the worst health crisis since the Spanish Flu. 

Most likely this month-january 2021-may become the worst month in all of this pandemic. The only good this month will bring is increased support for NPI, willingness to accept vaccinations..

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;The day is reset after midnight GMT+0. DJ The reported cases go from 00.00 hrs GMT to 00.00 hrs GMT (Greenwich Mean Time=UK time, we here in NL have CET=Central European Time). A reason why sometimes different numbers make headlines is some statistics take another time zone Eastern Standard Time or so-this can give other statistics for some days... Worldometers includes overseas parts of the US as US-other groups may give numbers for US Samoa, Virgin Islands etc...In the worldometer numbers; no record (absolute) numbers for the US in new cases. Still almost 195,000 cases upon a total of just over 510.000 global cases-in relative numbers (35%+ of all cases are from the US) may be a record number..

In the new cases list the UK is at #2 with-again-numbers around 55,000 in just one day...South Africa is at #8 with close to 12,000 new cases...indicating both the UK and SA are hard hit by the "new variants".

Other countries have relative low numbers-for now-most likely related to a new yearsday-long weekend. Less testing, less reporting...the known UK and SA (and most likely some unknown) variants are spreading-numbers will go up fast.

Germany tomorrow most likely will decide to prolong its lockdown till february 1-including keeping schools closed. In the UK-in a much worse situation-may reopen some schools...It is good there is opposition against this kind of stupidity ! Wise parents will keep their children at home..

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kXCz6W9050[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kXCz6W9050  (lots of info and links under the video);

 -Dr.J.C. is showing where the "deltoid muscle" is-top of shoulder. So to get the vaccination on the write place wear a shirt that has sleeves you can pull over the shoulder joint...(and DJ-DO get the vaccination if you have the chance..nothing is riskfree, but the risks you most likely run without a vaccination are much higher then the risks you run getting the (approved) vaccination.)

Usefull instructions [url]https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948757/Greenbook_chapter_14a_v4.pdf[/url] or https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/948757/Greenbook_chapter_14a_v4.pdf

 -Vaccinations are not yet going very fast (DJ-The only country doing a good job in vaccination at the moment is Israel..Even Germany has logistic problems..) According to the Bloomberg-link Dr.J.C. uses France just did over 350 vaccinations so far....DJ-In NL "public unrest" over the political idiots dealing with this pandemic may speed up the vaccination program. Hospital workers, GP's now also may be included...

DJ-What is needed is countries passing the EMA, states passing the FDA by ordering their own number of AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccines.. My (DJ) impression is both the FDA and EMA (for the EU) are "under control of big pharma lobby groups". The EU and US should consider nationalizing Big Pharma for the duration of the pandemic. You should not make profit out of a pandemic via vaccines, testing, transport..since it is tax money paying for all this get Big Pharma under public control !!!

 -In the US cases went up by over 277,000 cases (in the statistics Dr.J.C. uses-most likely part of that number is delayed reporting). US-PCR testing is different from UK PCR testing ? In the UK the new variant showed up in the PCR test (due not having segment 69/70-one of three segments the UK-PCR test finds in positive cases). In the US just over 50,000 virusses were sequensed-the official number for variants still seem to be "only 4 UK variants were found". It amazes Dr.J.C. that the CDC has not been monitoring for variants earlier...they should have known variants would/will show up...

 -According the the UK symptom tracker app january 2 (?) did see over 80,000 new cases...even higher then the around 55,000 official cases. Close to 24,000 people in UK hospitals (1847 ventilated)-previous peak was in april with 21,683 people in hospital...DJ-During the first wave staff was "fresh" the peak lasted often a few weaks, other (non-covid) care could wait. After that spring wave HCW had their hands full of other care patients (some in worse condition since they had to wait). Then in september, october Covid cases started going up again. By now HCW are exhausted. The (emergency) hospitals, beds may be there but there is not enough HCW left to deal with the number of cases...

DJ-Since "everythingh is political" spending cuts on public healthcare now show how much damage they bring. The "liberal-conservative" nostalgia for a 19th century society is destroying public healthcare, public housing, public education, public transport...These "public" goods were a product of things not going very well in that 19th century...something these "liberal conservatives" ignore, their voters seem to not know. A lack of knowledge on history, both why "public goods" became "public goods", the welfare state to deal with poverty AND knowing pandemics are the outcome of "the way we do things" may be one of the fundamental causes for the present situation..

To many people live "on a flat earth"- both history and future does not matter. Just "the "here and now" while that "here and now"is the outcome of a historic process and determines where we are going...

 -Senior medical figures in the UK warn-the London/SE England crisis soon will be allover the UK. (And in the UK they usually go for understatements..) DJ-Since the Christmas/New Year and the new variant mix maybe there could be some room for "optimsim"? The mix results in a 55% more infectious new variant. Public "shock" may see very strong NPI wich could bring the R0 <1 ? 

(DJ-Since the new UK variant come most manifest in busy days november, december-and Christmas, New Year-and the 55% more infectious rate is based on those statistics, january, february are "dull" months for most of the UK-the new variant may proof to be less infectious ?)

 -Allthough there is yet no clear evidence on the new variants infecting younger people Dr.J.C. sees it as a "no brainer" (UK) schools need to be closed another two, three weeks. Mass testing. may produce a lot of false negatives.....we are in a very serious crisis !!!!!!!!

 -In France "irritation" over the Brexit may be causing France to ignore the AstraZeneca/Oxford (UK/Sweden) vaccine- a lot of (paid ?) attention for the US/German Pfizer/BionTech vaccine. DJ-In the past French nationalism did cost many lives. France went for their own HIV/AIDS tests when other tests were available...It would be a bad tingh if now France is also "prioritizing" French vaccines-by delaying the roll-out of "foreign"vaccines..DJ-Both Moderna and Pfizer go for profits...since they are private companies, the US is not restricting them-does believe in "wild capitalism" even in a crisis there is another problem...Poor countries will limit buying expensive-for profit-US vaccines-simply because they do not have the money...DJ-If I had a say I would dump these two US vaccines immediatly-way to expensive and complicated-go for AstraZeneca-maximum production and logistics...

 -Dr.J.C. when the UK went for approval of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine it still was an EU member...why do other countries not pass the EMA if the EMA is doing a terrible job in approving vaccines ? 

-In several places in Europe large several day "parties" making the news. DJ-As if there is a sub-culture living in their own reality. Well connected via the internet but creating their own bubble-where there is no Covid19. A group-state of denial...We had a major party in a bunker north of Arnhem with several hundred guests. Power came from a generator producing CO2 poisening the crowd. Riotpolice had to move in-four policemen wounded...(can not find links in English [url]https://dutchreview.com/news/people-on-fire-riot-police-deployed-cars-left-to-burn-new-years-in-the-netherlands-strikes-again/[/url] or https://dutchreview.com/news/people-on-fire-riot-police-deployed-cars-left-to-burn-new-years-in-the-netherlands-strikes-again/ gives an impression of widespread insanity...and yes-these people are also voters...) There seems to be an illegal international party scene organizing parties for an international "jet-sett"(you have to have money and connections to get to such a party-full of alcohol/drugs)-run by international crime to get to their customers in another way ? Crime did lose contact with its clients..finding new ways to get an income. Of course these are mass-spread events...

 -India approved two vaccines starts vaccination this week..The Bharat Biotech use of dead virus is going back to how vaccination started (end of 18th century). Dr.J.C. did work in India; If they get their act together they can and will vaccinate hundreds of millions of people in months...

 -Pakistan going for a one-shot CanSino adeno(5) vaccine. DJ-Pakistan is in the China-Pakistan-Economic-Corridor linking China to the Indian Ocean and (via Iran, Turkey) EU/ Africa. "Primitive religion" (my words-not Dr.J.C.) is keeping polio going on in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Improving (public !!) education (and not via private schools for a small elite !!) may help to get people accept vaccinations (with respect for their beliefs-vaccination should never attack someone for his/her beliefs..).

Dr.J.C. reminds all to take vitamin D (some extra tablets may not harm you). DJ-The geo-political world is changing due to this pandemic. The Russian Sputnik-5 seems to have production problems, Pfizer may be at its limits production wise. Both Moderna and Pfizer are expensive in getting and transporting them... CanSino-single shot vaccination may become very interesting. Trial three testing will be finished next month...

Two vaccinations to get full protection when you basicly have to vaccinate ALL of the global population-getting much to close to 8 billion..Besides that Russia did look at vaccination of minks. You may need to be able to vaccinate other species (cat-likes ?) sooner or later..The US keeps doing a terrible job; low acceptence of NPI or vaccines, several variants being imported, healthcare allready at breaking point and still not out of the political crisis...Most of Europe only doing a little better..yes we do have lockdowns but people may need to see cases exploding before the take these measures serious (lots of politicians breaking the rules themselves..). Vaccination only started in a serious way-as far as I know in Germany, Denmark...only Pfizer being approved while they have serious problems in mass production..

We are on our way to a major health crisis in most of the world. China and India seem to be able to go for mass production of vaccines at a level making a global impact. (India will be producing 50 million AstraZeneca vaccines in Pune, 100 million BharatBiotech vaccines in Hyderabad per month-may be able to increase/double (?) that number within some months. China may be even be able to "move faster"...AstraZeneca may also see worldwide productionin over 30 countries. Sputnik-5 may get production going in Turkey. 

Vaccinnes production on relevant level is only getting started. The logistics is another challange we can deal with-getting enough staff to do the vaccination. A single-shot strategy is all there is room for at the moment..

DJ-We will get out of this crisis-most likely this year-but it is a very big global job that "will change the world"..

Music; Bicycle Race-Queen [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xt0V0_1MS0Q&list=RDxt0V0_1MS0Q&start_radio=1[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xt0V0_1MS0Q&list=RDxt0V0_1MS0Q&start_radio=1 DJ-I love to ride my bicycle...




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2021 at 9:59pm

DJ,

I would love the numbers to be realistic [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ but it may still reflect limited testing/reporting, delays...Of the 535,000+ cases something like 35%+ in the US, 10%+ in the UK may indicate "an unbalance". 

Some news items from yesterday (from latest news on this forum); 

-Assuming the serial interval of 6.73 days we estimated the replicative advantage of VUI−202012/01 lineage as 2.31^(6.73/7) = 2.24 [95% CI: 2.03−2.48].

DJ=I do not know if this=UK-V=R0 of 2.24 (I am not an expert, just combining my breakfast with pandemic news). Looking at the UK numbers in combination with the UK restrictions it simply does not look good...also most patients getting into hospital are under 60...

-The Wuustwezel/Belgium variant between Antwerp and the Dutch border may be a new variant-looks different from the UK one..

-Also SA variant may be able to evade vaccination more then earlier expected...and is spreading three cases in Switzerland..

DJ-One other "idea" I have-does PCR testing miss a lot of cases ? What I understand PCR testing is looking for some viral segments in swabs. The UK variant does not have segment 69 and 70-the PCR test in the UK picked that up (it is one of the three viral segments that UK PCR test is looking for).

If indeed the US could have had already over 100 million cases could it be most (mild) cases do NOT have the segments used in PCR testing ????

How many variants are there already ? Do "we"have any basic idea-or are we in fact blind whit sequencing less then 0.1% of all cases ?

The vaccine producers Pfizer/BioNTech and the FDA advice against a larger gap between first and second vaccination with their vaccine-that scenario was not studied..

This is very depressing news...This pandemic story reminds me of a movie [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wall_(2012_film)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wall_(2012_film) describing a deep depression. It is good the UK goes into a very strict lockdown for over a month....but the mental burden for many people may become to much. 

By the way-we may get some snow tomorrow in NL-haven't seen snow for a few years here...

Dr.J.C. tries to stay hopefull on what vaccines can do-they can be adjusted to deal with new variants...but that will take weeks-by that time there already could be other variants...a nightmare scenario....for now the "only weapon"is stay at home-do not spread the virus.

I was hoping for better news...Dr.John Campbell; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3kQoyCCLmY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3kQoyCCLmY ;

-A study on reinfections in healthcare workers did not find reinfections in those that did get infected during the first wave (DJ-variants will increase risk of reinfections) SARS-1 patients still have immunity against SARS-2. (DJ-SARS-1 was very isolated, I believe less then 10.000 cases ? ([url]https://www.cdc.gov/dotw/sars/index.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/dotw/sars/index.html ; SARS was first reported in Asia in February 2003. The illness spread to 29 countries, where 8,096 people got SARS and 774 of them died. The SARS global outbreak was contained in July 2003.  ) So much smaller in number of cases and in time.

-DJ-When I see Dr.J.C. putting that much emphasis on "no-news" of what already more or less was known-very small risks for reinfection-I get the feeling Dr.J.C. is in panic...(he will get his act together and report on further developments-I think he needs time to find the right words).

MedCram (MC)/Dr.John Campbell (JC)video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7J8SPczl6w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7J8SPczl6w ;

-JC-reactive governments in stead of proactive action was one of the problems (running behind the facts, simply not realizing what a pandemic is-while we could/should have known that from history...)

-MC-Vaccine development was very good science-but if most HCW do not want the vaccine something is wrong with communications..

-MC-Good info from medical journals-not from MSM-they just give snapshots...

-JC-25% of medical knowledge is in peer reviewed studies. National guidelines/expert opinion also a good source-a third source is common sense, basic medical experience (DJ Both love to give links showing they do not make up their stories-problem is studies are always running behind facts...from a historical point of view knowledge of earlier studies should be a main part of strategy in dealing with the present one. Quarantine is an old term-40 days...there is so much "old knowledge" that can be usefull-there are medical historians that can give good advice...their knowledge in my opinion is overlooked..)

-MC Pre-prints, not peer reviewed studies may have errors-more heads are better then one. CDC is approving things for emergency use-doing nothing costs lives..

-JC The "tea-lady principle" experts may end up in a "tunnel vision" sometimes an outsider may see things experts overlooked..In actions the "do no harm" principle-If you do not know what the problem is you do need time before you act...

-JC Restoring trust in NHS, CDC has to go with realizing they only can work with current knowledge-we do not yet have tomorrows research yet-and yes-that means we can be wrong...The human body is very complex-we do not know everything..

-MC We learn by mistakes, no one is perfect-science is learning and willing to admit some conclusion were wrong..

-

[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-55542393[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-55542393 

DJ-If I want to compare the present pandemic situation with another recent history event it may be with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami ; We did have the earthquake-now the tsunami is coming...The earthquake/tsunami in Japan is almost 10 years ago-Japan is still there...The pandemic is a global event-even China, Australia are not safe-have to keep the gates closed...

This pandemic did get this much out of control due to human (in)action. Last summer numbers were low-we could have gotten the virus under control. But "we"reopened to soon...

Japan survived the 2011 disaster, the world survived many pandemics-we may be able to survive this one as well. 

Other news; [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/01/british-judge-rejects-assange-extradition.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/01/british-judge-rejects-assange-extradition.html

This was unexpected. The British district court judge Vanessa Baraitser rejected the U.S. extradition request against Julian Assange:

Kevin Gosztola - 11:07 UTC · Jan 4, 2021
BREAKING: Judge rules against US extradition of Julian Assange, contending extradition would be oppressive by reason of Assange’s mental health

The British judge said that the U.S. prison system is too brutal to be trusted with the health of Assange.

DJ-Or is it related ? Is the US inaction on the pandemic damaging the US image already that much even the UK is turning away from the US (is the "UK variant" in reality a "US variant" ?)

DJ-No musicvideo this time [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0wQzYD0Ctg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a0wQzYD0Ctg In Rio de Janeiro-Brazil there is a mountaintrain going up to the statue of Christ...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 4:52am

DJ

Some news items;

-[url]https://innovationorigins.com/unnoticed-oxygen-deficiency-because-coronavirus-infects-sensor-cells/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/unnoticed-oxygen-deficiency-because-coronavirus-infects-sensor-cells/ ;

It is still a mystery to physicians why COVID-19 patients often suffer from severe to life-threatening oxygen deficiency – with arterial oxygen levels even below 50 mmHg – but do not notice this deficiency. They do not experience shortness of breath, nor do they exhibit significantly accelerated breathing. As a result, pneumonia is also often detected too late, which can then lead to a rapid deterioration of their condition and even death. Researchers at the University of Seville, Spain, have now found a possible trigger for this phenomenon.

Defective alarm in the event of infection

Until now, physicians have always assumed that infection of the lungs and respiratory center by the SARS-CoV-2 virus triggers a severe course of COVID-19. The latest tissue examinations during autopsies have now revealed another reason: the virus apparently infects the sensors that measure the oxygen content in the blood and sound the alarm in the event of a deficiency. Humans breathe faster to compensate for the lack of oxygen.

These sensors are located in the carotid artery, among other places, and in some people are equipped with numerous ACE2 receptors. These are precisely the receptors to which SARS-CoV-2 docks and thus penetrates the cells. If these sensors are incapacitated, the alarm does not sound and the person does not notice the deficiency. But if this “silent hypoxemia” leads to a sudden, critical imbalance, the result can be fatal.

-

But why do these problems occur in some affected individuals and not in others? The researchers found a possible explanation for that, too. “Our data show high individual variability in ACE2 expression in human CB tissue. This could explain why ‘silent hypoxemia’ seems to occur randomly in COVID-19 patients.”

-[url]https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-false-start-for-the-netherlands-with-pfizer-vaccinations/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-false-start-for-the-netherlands-with-pfizer-vaccinations/ ;

The Netherlands was the only country in the EU to close 2020 without having given a single injection. Although tens of thousands of vaccines have been received by now, the counter is still at zero. Minister of Health, Welfare and Sport Hugo de Jonge said last week that in Europe only Germany and Denmark would have the logistics in place after their ‘symbolic kick-off’. But is this really the case? OurWorldinData has a very comprehensive and up-to-date dataset for that.

The answer is no. Thousands, if not tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of serums have already been administered all around us. This is what the new Vaccination Map of Europe from Monday 4 January looks like.

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/05/dutch-health-minister-losing-public-support-slow-covid-vaccine-rollout[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/05/dutch-health-minister-losing-public-support-slow-covid-vaccine-rollout

The Cabinet rescheduled the start date twice. One of the main delays was the upgrade of an IT system to allow municipal health service GGD to track scheduling appointments, and which vaccine candidate was used on different patients. The GGD also needed to establish at least one mass vaccination point in each of its 25 regions.


De Jonge said on Monday that it may have been possible to start vaccinating people “a few days earlier” if he had asked the GGD system to begin scaling up preparations at an earlier date. De Jonge was likely to face criticism during emergency debates in Parliament this week. 

Currently, only a vaccine from Pfizer/BioNTech has been approved for use. The European Medicines Agency could issue a ruling on a candidate from Moderna on Wednesday, and a rolling review of the AstraZeneca/Oxford University candidate could be concluded later this month. 

DJ [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/portuguese-nurse-dies-suddenly-after-receiving-covid-vaccine[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/portuguese-nurse-dies-suddenly-after-receiving-covid-vaccine Statistics can give an indication what "number of deaths" after (a) vaccination is inside a reasonable  norm. The Pfizer vaccine may be "a bigger job" for the body then most flu shots. 

[url]https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/south-africa-covid-variant-more-23255524[/url] or https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/south-africa-covid-variant-more-23255524 ;

Sir John Bell, said the South Africa variant is more concerning than the Kent strain "by some margin" because of how quickly it can spread.


The professor believes the South Africa strain is already in the UK "at very low levels", he told Times Radio today.

The South Africa strain of Covid was discovered before Christmas and is named 501.V2.

Experts have stressed there's no evidence this new strain is more deadly, but it did see the number of people testing positive for Covid more than treble in three weeks in South Africa.

Two cases of the South Africa variant were discovered in the UK on December 23.


Sir John added that a new vaccine could be made in four to six weeks if the current ones do not work on new variants.

He stressed that there's no definitive answer yet as to whether the Pfizer and Oxford vaccines would work on the South Africa coronavirus variant or not.

DJ-The R0 of the South African variant even higher then the UK one ???? (This also means even fewer people with that variant may start a major outbreak...)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2021 at 9:46pm

DJ

By now statistics would show the effects of all measures and advice-if any effect it may be very limited. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ There is much indication variants are increasing numbers outside the UK and SA. Countries like Czechia, Switzerland, Israel [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/calamitous-hike-in-covd-infection/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/calamitous-hike-in-covd-infection/ see high numbers of cases even with restrictions.

The US, UK,SA is "a disaster zone"...Germany is going for the most strict lockdown so far-even with limits of 10 miles/15 kilometer around your house in hard hit area's. Vaccination will not prevent new infections going up for the coming weeks...even Israel with its high speed vaccination may be vaccinating a large proportion already infected people...with risks virus will further develop away from the vaccine. 

-Some other news [url]https://twitter.com/uaf/status/1345732561176322049/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/uaf/status/1345732561176322049/photo/1 DJ Not all neo-nazi's deny there is a pandemic, not all that deny the pandemic is a neo nazi. There seems to be an overlap of groups denying this pandemic and groups claiming there is no climate collapse...they may be funded by the same extreme (US) groups...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/congress-urged-to-use-underground-dc-tunnels-to-avoid-angry-patriots[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/congress-urged-to-use-underground-dc-tunnels-to-avoid-angry-patriots "stop the steal" right wing extremists in DC today-same funding as pandemic/climate denyers ?

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/902433-china-there-are-21-medium-risk-covid-19-coronavirus-regions-across-the-country-december-28-grows-to-49-risk-areas-on-january-4-2021#post903074[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/902433-china-there-are-21-medium-risk-covid-19-coronavirus-regions-across-the-country-december-28-grows-to-49-risk-areas-on-january-4-2021#post903074  China is seeing risks for a new wave of Covid19(+) increasing...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWPxCMku2BA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VWPxCMku2BA ;

-Vaccination; the US was planning to have 20 million people vaccinated by the end of 2020-still around 5 million few days back. France just over 500...(DJ In Poland some of the rich elite "were invited to set an example" did get first vaccinations..)

-If there is a two week gap between testing positive and hospitalization in the UK december 22 had almost 400.000 (DJ-in a week ?) cases resulting in almost 24,000 people in UK hospitals january 5. Today the number is "prevalence"=730,513 (january 4) means over 44,000 hospital cases by january 18...Problem is hospitals are overloaded NOW already...

-Dr.J.C. The UK needs to go to two million vaccinations per week-so far 500.000 seems hard to reach..(DJ-In many countries vaccination is having a problematic start-not enough vaccines coming in, also the "deep freeze"vaccines are more complex.)

-Dr.J.C. In the UK tier-3 restrictions would bring the "old" variant at an R0 of 0,8-with this new variant the R0 may still be around 1.2 (DJ This means even stricter limits are needed..) In the comments under the video someone from the UK-I still have to go to my job with lots of cases...no FULL lockdown...

-Sir John Bell-Oxford University-Oxford vaccine may be less effective against SA variant..Vaccines can be changed in a few weeks-DJ while the virus variants keep spreading (London 27% of tests positive-most will be with UK variant)

-Dr. J.C. could not find further info on the SA variants in the UK...DJ-Many countries report on variants showing up in their borders. Most of the time people get isolated (and released if there is no illness)-sometimes people are stopped at airports-have to return. Contact tracing...The bad news is there must be that many more variant cases all around..is there now better testing/sequencing ? 

-Scotland PM UK-Variant is giving more symptomatic cases in younger people...Dr.J.C. data soon will be available (DJ-He would like to say more, restricting himself..there is no evidence yet.)

-US the CDC "dropped the ball"(Dr.J.C.) in sequencing. Another UK variant in New York. Hospital cases in NY went up 96% past month-may be indicating UK variant is widespread (DJ-The UK/Kent variant is named after where it was detected-it most likely did not stat there...could be from the US, Italy be mink (NL/DK) related..)

-In the US over 3,3 million air-passengers did go via TSA control the first three days of 2021...(DJ-Still a lot of (air)travel going on...around the globe.)

-Moderna can produce 100 million vaccines (per month)  end of march, 200 million vaccines (per month) end of june. Pfizer may be at same numbers (DJ-Vaccine production is now slowly starting-China, India, AstraZeneca may also be producing in same kind of numbers soon. India is working on a nasal spray as way of vaccination, China/CanSino on a single-shot vaccine-exporting that to Pakistan, Mexico..)

-Still a lot of discussion on one or two vaccinations-go for 100 protection against infection or almost 100% protection against severe disease. Dr.J.C. This is a crisis-we need to offer the best we can to the most in numbers...Johnson&Johnson (Jansen Pharma-Leiden NL) may ask FDA approval for a single shot vaccination in february..

-The US FDA sees "safety problems" with the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine (UK/Sweden) DJ-The "safety" may have to do with protecting US Big Pharma from false competition, or AZ/O working with Russia...the outcome may be most of the world will get AstraZeneca vaccines-the demand is not a problem...(it is a US problem getting less cheap safe easy to use vaccines..)

-On may 15 2020 a board of directors member of Moderna Dr. Moncef Slaoui became head of White House "operation warp speed"-could that have anything to do with "safety concerns" over the AZ/O vaccine ? (DJ Big Pharma greed killing millions..)

-DJ If Germany has already ordered 300 million vaccines from Pfizer-(German) BionTech on a population of 84 million Dr.J.C. may miss that info in his remarks over Germany doing deals via the EU. Germany may well become one of the global vaccine exporters...it is the EU that may want to make deals with Germany...

-Rwanda seeing a second (SA variant ?) wave-other African countries may see the same-but limited/no testing...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGzpy7LcmNQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGzpy7LcmNQ  Israel Special report..

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGzpy7LcmNQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGzpy7LcmNQ "Your Health" with Dr. Christy on Ivermectin-PP/CM is promoting that what is this Dr. view on it ? 

DJ-Both AstraZeneca, Ivermectin (HCQ ?) may be effective in treating patients-they do NOT bring big profits....? The power of Big Pharma using this pandemic to get even more rich ? Why is private pharma not under state control ? Or even worse..why is the state under Big Pharma control ....?

Music-to take you away...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfmSDCbzHxY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfmSDCbzHxY Island of Dreams-the Seekers version 1966



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2021 at 9:55pm

DJ

US events like storming of the Capitol are very unwelcome during this pandemic-but may be part of the socio-economic unrest that is part of a pandemic...Because major pandemics see social unraveling, economic downfall...this pandemic is not unique-history has seen (much) worse. It was our lack of imagination, arrogance, we would not see a pandemic in "modern times". 

Climate change will increase the "biological pressure" causing pandemics. Species losing their habitat-feeding grounds...it is all linked-some of us did not want to see the connection. 

-The numbers are alarming for this-historic-january 6; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

US 260,973 new cases 4100 deaths, Brazil 62,532 new cases 1266 deaths, UK 62,322 new cases 1041 deaths...in just one day of reporting. "Variants"are most likely spreading all around the globe-and there have to be several variants. This is an ongoing exponential proces in wich we-as humans-need to act-strict NPI can help-social distancing for you is social distancing for the virus-they 'll hate you for that. Vaccines are limited (one can even imagine-by protecting against the UK variant they open the road for the SA, other variants that seem not to be stopped enough by vaccines..)

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toojPNAPsbs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toojPNAPsbs ;

 -Third wave in Ireland going exponential, "treat others as if they had the virus" as an official advise tells the story.

 -UK variant in Ireland =25% (Cumbria UK=75% London=95%) DJ-Most of Europe in early stages of spread, the UK-V may already be more widespread in the US, Canada..)

 -With increase of cases hospitalcare will run out of capacity. People that would survive with hospital/ICU care now soon will be dying. (DJ-same scenario for other countries facing exponential variants...most workplaces will close-means food problems, means panic...prepare for that now in a calm way-do not make the situation even worse...)

 -UK 2% of population infected (will go up-even with present lockdown rules) DJ-Since the duration of this crisis there could be shortage of PPE, materials etc-staff must be exhausted...

 -US Dr.J.C. same trends as in UK, Ireland. LA-O2<90%=oxygen,  hospitals refusing worst case patients-paramedics have to decide who can go to hospital or who to die at home...DJ-there will be some regional differences but the trend looks bad. 

(DJ-An important question for the US "who is the boss"-will it be a Pence/Biden combination-more or less locking trump up so he can not do further harm...?)

-Dr.J.C. people getting infected during Christmas infected others New Years Eve-those others will be infecting yet other people by now.."It is unclear where this situation is going in january, february"-DJ-Not at all ! We know enough of earlier pandemics-but people may not want to hear it...hospital care is "first line of defense" keeping a society going. If that line is broken one may expect a chainreaction other "lines"in society, logistics/food supply, security come under pressure. One should prepare for that now to minimize the damage...(DJ-I can realy get angry if people see what is coming but turn out unable to recognize it...it does not seem to fit in their way of thinking...but it is there, that obvious..South Africa will be in that phase earlier then the UK with less reserves...but what can happen there can happen here..!!!)

 -San Diego county-California has 32 UK variant cases, Florida, New York, Georgia, Colorado (DJ-with limited testing in the US maybe 5-10% of all US cases could already be UK variant-spreads fast, pushes old variant aside. If it is not the UK variant it could be one of several other variants..SA variant dominant in South America..)

 -DJ-For the moment there is some discussion on vaccine-strategy. Give one dose-later on 12 weeks--the other, or just go for one dose to get "the best by at least giving more people some protection...Reality is we are already in a very bad crisis only getting much worse....keeping some vaccination program going will be a challange...Given the situation we are in this discussion is pointless....

 -From october 1976 the US vaccinated 50 million people in 10 weeks against H1N1-flu, using a air-pressure vaccination"gun". The recent past has evidence on mass vaccinations-"100 million people in 100 days" for the US should be possible by now (76 was 50 million in 70 days)

DJ-Looking at the bigger picture-as a non-expert/observer some points;

-There is a "tsunami of cases" coming-dealing with that should be top-priority to try to limit damage. Communications keep failing-"save the economy" idiots are making this pandemic very much worse...

-Maybe in Israel there is some point in vaccinations now-they have "the machine going" may be able to get to a number of vaccinations-in combination with NPI etc to make some difference as "the tsunami comes in"...other countries should prepare NOW for what is coming. Get food supplies/distribution in order, very strict controls on NPI, "put the army in the streets"....this pandemic did get out of control due "to little to late" "running behind the facts" pro-activity is not in their agenda...

-Extreme natural events will make dealing with this crisis harder. There will be extreme events..simply loking at statistics. Maybe extreme winter weather, storm, earthquake-put extra preparations for that NOW..

-What is wrong with presidents/heads of states going on national TV telling the public we face a very serious crisis ? All during this pandemic communication was poor...

-Please look at historic pandemics. We can learn that much of the past but we refuse to do so...translating the 1918 situation to 2021 should not be impossible...

Stay safe !

Music The Seekers Morningtown Ride [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-RkC6MYT2E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-RkC6MYT2E (song from 1964-TV show 1968)


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2021 at 9:26pm

DJ

-A look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for january 7...the highest number of new-reported/tested-cases so far over 820,000 new cases in just one day. The number of deaths is still below the december 30 record (corrected) numbers...14,670 deaths in one day is very high-so far...

Some countries to watch; US about 1/3 of all cases/deaths but Brazil is seeing record numbers as well so is the UK, Germany..South Africa. Czechia is remarkable-will they become #19 with over 1 million  (on a population of around 10 million) cases even before NL ?

In the cases per million Czechia is at #6 with 7,4% of its population having been infected..the US is at #7 with 6,7% In the deaths-per-million Belgium has 1712, Italy 1279, Czechia 1177, UK 1153, US 1127 (Brazil 940 dpm-may be on bases of other definition of Covid-deaths). 

Motor behind the high-worsening-numbers are several new variants. At least the SA variant seems to be "unimpressed" by vaccines.

DJ-If the first line of defense is close to breaking=hospitals/healthcare try to improve/prepare second line of defense=food supply, logistics, security...Vaccines may not do "the job"...protect against some variants just to open the door for others..

Very strict NPI/lockdown will help to slow down the spread of variants. At the moment governments priorities are vaccinations and limiting economic damage...Again that strategy is running (on purpose ???) behind reality...try to keep society alive, essentials running-"but get in the shelter NOW !!!"-the tsunami is on its way and closing your eyes will not help...

-Dr. J.C. with another update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owLXHxDopiY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owLXHxDopiY ;

 -[url]https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/international/[/url] or https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/international/ another good info site...trends going up in many places. Dr. J.C. mentions Nigeria-new variant...DJ-It should be very high priority to get as much info on new variants. It looks like the SA-v is evading vaccine...may be also widespread in Latin America-and most likely moving into the US (where the SA, UK and other variants have all the chance "to meet and greet" oneanother and "start great new initiatives"...). DJ-We could be in a phase were there may be a new variant once a week...and yes-most mutations make a virus weaker-but when they show up in statistics that part of development is history..)

 -The WHO is hoping to be able to do investigations on where this pandemic came from. China does like to "do her own investigations". Some "theories" are "frozen virus imports", "miners picking up bat-droppings (for fuel/manure ?) getting infecte, bat-for-food Wuhan market..Dr.J.C. believes there is growing evidence for a bio-lab accident (PP/CM had that same conclusion months back..)

If air traffic stopped in time the virus would not have spread, the WHO failed, China may not have been open enough ( DJ-the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_Hubei[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lockdown_in_Hubei started january 23-even before that there was "a lot of info" on a new virus. If intelligence agencies did not know of this virus by the end of 2019 they did not do their job..) 

In this present time the world needs China,for vaccines, medications, maybe even staff/hospital capacity...this is NOT the moment to have an independent expert study in China. Priority has to be on getting at least an attempt of trying to get some control of this pandemic...news on "China cover-up" is distraction from own faillures, a "blame game"-not fact-finding...

As a reminder-we still do not know all there is to know about the Spanish Flu, The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_pandemic was it a flu or corona-virus ? Even if China would be as open as they can-we still may not be able to get any realistic insight on where and how this pandemic started. Samples of Covid19 showing up in Europe in 2019 may even indicate China could be the wrong place...just like the UK/SA variants are named to locations where the were first found-not needs to be where it started..

 -Smoking-a retrospective study showing smokers did recognize more Covid19 symptoms on a Covid19 checklist during the spring-wave then non-smokers...DJ-There was not a lot of testing, news at the time indicated smokers more at risk...you will see that in such list of questions...Smokers do have a cough, most likely will have less lung capacity...DJ-I fail to see the use of such a study...(Does Dr.J.C. bring this-and China- up not to talk about the "tsunami of cases" on its way ...?) Smoking does not offer protection against Covid19...but we knew that long time ago...

 -Dr.J.C. looks at US/UK statistics, worldwide number of vaccinations-yes-all going up ! DJ-I think Dr.J.C. is afraid of the incoming tsunami of cases...and he is right on being afraid. Still we have seen earlier pandemics-I would welcome his toughts on how to prepare for this "tsunami"...what to do if you have Covid19 and there is no hospital bed...? DJ-My "basic instinct" tells me, water is essential, trying to get the infection under control (vitamins, I maybe still would try iboprofen..fall back on paracetemol if that did not work...fresh air-if possible. In a later stage having a safe place (to hide) may be usefull, hide food/water...Sleep may help the body heel itself, melatonin may help with that and also slow down infections...My feeling tells me that a patient in severe illness could do with less medication/suppletion then when he/she is active. In case of diabetes there may be room to spread supplementation-also if it is hard to get new medication...Of course I am NOT a doctor/GP-ALWAYS try to get much better advice from a doctor/GP (or if it is no longer available) the internet...one can learn from others...

Music-Troy Sinéad O'Conner [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c4v7fp5GC8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0c4v7fp5GC8  (as a reminder [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troy had it bad...)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2021 at 10:58pm

With the South African variation spreading, seemingly so fast, and South Africa reporting some high figures (at least for deaths, although testing remains low  533 deaths/million, CFR 2,7%), the data out of the surrounding countries seems on the very low side. 

But then testing is very low in all the countries.   

So I suppose this will spread far and fast "under the radar" in the southern part of Africa,    


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2021 at 1:48am

EdwinSM, the South African variant seems to be spreading fast in South America, Brazil cases exploding...also Switzerland has a large cluster (out of control) of the SA variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901816-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-p-in-south-africa-south-america-brazil-switzerland-appears-to-%E2%80%98obviate%E2%80%99-antibody-drugs/page2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901816-new-covid-19-variant-identified-501-v2-p-in-south-africa-south-america-brazil-switzerland-appears-to-%E2%80%98obviate%E2%80%99-antibody-drugs/page2 

DJ-I would "love to believe" Pfizer vaccine providing "some protection" against the SA variant but;

-Vaccination is (much) slower the variant-virus spread

-There have been several claims the SA variant evades the vaccine

-With infections/cases going up this fast new variants (some further away from "old Covid19"=even less effected by vaccine different receptor binding domain means immunitysystem may no longer recognize it as the corona-virus vaccination"info" given) will "go up/explode"..

The SA variant is spreading "under" and above the radar. Testing in Africa is as good as zero (Kenya 4000 tests or so..) for most of Africa...

DJ-I wonder if Brazil/South America does have the SA variant or something that is already a bit different from that variant...number of cases exploding=more mutations=more variants...What is also under the radar is spread in/via animals in some parts of the globe-very likely by now (most corona-virusses are in other animals-not in humans, cats,bats,rats may be spreading it..) 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2021 at 9:20pm

DJ

[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/08/politics/white-house-coronavirus-task-force-reports/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/08/politics/white-house-coronavirus-task-force-reports/index.html

(CNN)The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shot down reports from the White House coronavirus task force that warned states of a more transmissible, homegrown "US variant" of coronavirus -- a misperception that began on a call with governors, an administration official told CNN.

Officials on the governors' call were discussing whether the steep slope in coronavirus cases may be due to a potential US variant similar to a variant first identified by genetics experts in the UK.
But the official made it very clear US health officials have not determined that a US variant of the virus exists. There has been discussion about whether US health officials should investigate whether a US variant exists and make that identification. But so far, the official cautioned, no such identification has occurred.

DJ-By the time you get evidence you are running behind the facts...Here in NL "we" did find the first SA variant case, some "experts"believe they would be able to isolate the-so far 50-UK variants (most of them no UK travel-link) in NL. 

Dr.J.C. has a lot of knowledge, most experts know all there is to know about virusses, epidemics...still may not be able to connect the dots. Mainly because it is out of their "scale of thinking". 

"This fall/winter surge has been at nearly twice the rate of rise of cases as the spring and summer surges. This acceleration suggests there may be a USA variant that has evolved here, in addition to the UK variant that is already spreading in our communities and may be 50% more transmissible," reports obtained by CNN said, calling for "aggressive mitigation ... to match a much more aggressive virus."

DJ-A look at the-terrible-numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

January 7 did see a record number of 826,719 new cases...The US did see over 300,000, the UK almost 70,000 new cases...Worldwide almost 15,000 new deaths...Five countries +1000 deaths per day (US,UK, Germany, Brazil, Mexico) lots of other countries (South Africa) also seeing explosive increases...are you going to wait for the evidence of "new variants" or push the alarm button now ? 

-Dr.J.C. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOyM97Y_RdM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOyM97Y_RdM ;

 -DJ-When a doctor has to start with "the good news first" better pay attention. Yes UK approved Moderna-vaccine, first vaccines come in march...DJ-The US hoped to have over 20 million people vaccinated-so far over 6 million. Conflicting news on (Pfizer) vaccine protecting against SA variant...DJ-If you look at how this pandemic has developed better be on the safe site. You "may hope" vaccines protect against all new variants-but strict lockdowns, social distancing has to keep ALL virus spread down to a minimum !

You do not want to keep repeating "reopening to fast" we are now facing a very serious global crisis "by trying to save the economy". A good lockdown in february, march 2020 may have saved us from this pandemic...stop all ait travel-virus fly for free-january 2020 would have made a difference...some experts were calling for that but they were seen as "alarmists" often even kicked out of "crisis management teams"...

 -The bad news; Dr.J.C. is correct in starting the bad news with a rule on testing on travel from South Africa starting coming wednesday (?????? january 13) people do need a negative test not older then 72 hours...(not clear what kind of test, 72 hours=three days...a lot of people will get infected during that time-start showing symptoms a few days later..) {DJ-I have to look at this again ??? I believe it is a mandatory test for all passengers to the UK-direct flights between SA and the UK may have stopped so SA passengers (with UK pasport) may have to travel via Lagos-Nigeria or so...As far as I know already lots of countries did find one or more SA variants in their country...running behind the facts-what is wrong with stopping all airtravel in the middle of a worsening pandemic ?} 

 -London-some (poor-no doubt ?) area's see 1 in 20=5% infection rate. Firemen, police driving ambulances (DJ What I do get there may not be a shortage of beds-but there is a severe shortage of staff. All medical gear must be running out...). A lot of Muslims did go to a mosque...unwise. One can only hope this weekend other religions do get the message-why "places of worship"are still open ? Hospitals report a lot of younger people getting into hospital/ICU...(DJ-I did see other RETROSPECTIVE !!!!! studies suggesting this is NOT happening. This SO CALLED science-giving info about hospital cases in october-novem-december "we do not see younger age groups there"is damaging and stupid ! If a house is on fire now-indeed it was not on fire yesterday...please !)

 -Another "science-stupidity" "cases are decreasing-so the lock down has an effect"Yes-UK had just over 52,000 cases two days ago-yesterday numbers showed over 68,000 new cases..."Experts"should know the R0 has to get < 1 AND STAY THERE...(Okay I calm down....)

 -Dr.J.C. looks at beds-statistics-there is no shortage of beds...In London it is now 1 nurse on THREE ICU patients (has to be 1 on 1). In a normal year beds are 90% full, during winter may go up to 95% (DJ the "extra"is for emergency use). Now we are (fat) over 100%...The NHS made some scenarios for january 19...Even in the best scenario they will be 1500 critical care beds short of demand-more realistic estimates is 5000 critical care beds...(DJ-I leave it to you to think of what that does mean...

 -First symptoms-hospital is a 13 day gap (DJ-so far-new variant, younger age group could change that statistic..) Tested/reported cases going up means some of them need hospitalcare within two weeks...Dr.J.C. "it is unclear what will happen" when there are (thousends of) patients and no healthcare left to deal with the increases...DJ-Come'on ! What do think that will happen? Panic ? Should we not be preparing for that now ? Get in the army to protect hospitals ? Give info to the general public-"There will be NO care available with these increases"-STOP spreading the virus !!

 -US You did see a decrease of cases during thanksgiving-cases going up after that. That pattern-but larger is repeating after Christmas and New Year (DJ-Dr.J.C. several times mentioned 115 million people traveling in the US during that time...) So-yes cases going up...8% in a week, hospital over 130,000 patients...Some states hit harder (California, Arizona..)

 - Some LA hospitals go for triage. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage DJ-For now there will be supervision, some medical decisions. If you go for ambulance para-medics being told "not to go for severe cases" that is another form of triage...In fact it means available care goes to those with the best perspective but in need for care. Here in NL in the "black scenario" one criterium may be years-of-live saved...but a lot of old people do not even get into ICU...So far limited numbers of "variants" found in the US DJ-Mostly due to the fact US has limited sequencing capacity...if they could investigate 1 in 1000 cases that would at least be something-but it may be even lower and slower-Did I get it right-2 weeks for sequencing ???

DJ I hate to bring bad news but when the news is this bad people do need it to hear even more...Dr.J.C. is optimistic over longer term immunity (via vaccines, "natural" immunity)-it will be "two hard weeks"...I disagree...

-People can and should do something NOW ! Take this pandemic serious ! Do take social distance, isolating yourself serious ! This is not a joke !!!

-The "speculation" on US variant(s) on such a high "task force" level [url]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/white-house-covid-task-force-warns-of-possible-new-usa-variant-driving-spread.html[/url] or https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/08/white-house-covid-task-force-warns-of-possible-new-usa-variant-driving-spread.html is a very serious warning-things are getting out of control !!!!

 -Media asking "when people can book their holliday" seem to be unable to get the message. Hospital staff working high risk 12 hour shifts, the general public asking "when will be the next party"....What is needed is governments going for State of Emergency etc. and they are still not doing it...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfnIkDwrjw8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfnIkDwrjw8 Peak Prosperity (DJ-Could Ivermectin make a difference now ? If so-why is it not used large scale...?)

-Dr. Chris Martenson and his wife travelled to Houston, to shake hands, hug there heroes, no social distancing in the photo-shot...hmmmm ??? (very bad examples..)

-The news is not in the video (YouTube censorship) but in the links [url]https://covid19criticalcare.com/[/url] or https://covid19criticalcare.com/ ;

[url]https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/FLCCC-PressRelease-NIH-C19-Panel-FollowUp-Jan7-2021.pdf[/url] or https://covid19criticalcare.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/FLCCC-PressRelease-NIH-C19-Panel-FollowUp-Jan7-2021.pdf  ;

DJ-The doctors repeat the claim Ivermectin works-would make a major difference (and maybe they use Ivermectin to prevent infection-so therefore feel free to shake hands, hug etc ?)-If that is the case why not some countries would be able to get this crisis under control by using Ivermectin ? The reason why "poor countries"seem to have low numbers is lack of testing...If this is how they bring the news it may take a long time to get heard....

"Music" A "golden oldie reflecting my mood" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBojbjoMttI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBojbjoMttI For the US the S.x Pistols, rest of the world Sex Pistols-Anarchy in the UK...because social collapse, anarchy, can be the outcome of bad government...

Right now ha, ha, ha, ha, ha
I am an anti-Christ
I am an anarchist
Don't know what I want
But I know how to get it
I want to destroy the passerby



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2021 at 12:19am

DJ

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/903423-cidrap-covid-19-scan-candida-auris-in-covid-19-patients-post-covid-effects-in-cats-inequitable-covid-19-testing[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/903423-cidrap-covid-19-scan-candida-auris-in-covid-19-patients-post-covid-effects-in-cats-inequitable-covid-19-testing 

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/files/2021/01/January-2021-Practice-Guide-to-Mitigating-the-Risk-of-Infection-During-the-COVID-19-Pandemic.pdf[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/files/2021/01/January-2021-Practice-Guide-to-Mitigating-the-Risk-of-Infection-During-the-COVID-19-Pandemic.pdf 

From China [url]https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battle-against-novel-coronavirus.html[/url] or https://www.cgtn.com/special/Battle-against-novel-coronavirus.html 

[url]https://www.rt.com/usa/511993-florida-doctor-dies-vaccine/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/usa/511993-florida-doctor-dies-vaccine/ ;

A middle-aged doctor from Florida has passed away two weeks after receiving his first dose of Pfizer’s coronavirus vaccine, succumbing to a rare blood disorder. The CDC and local officials have opened a probe into his death.

Dr. Gregory Michael – a 56-year-old obstetrician-gynecologist who ran his own practice at Miami Beach’s Mount Sinai Medical Center for more than a decade – died late last week, 16 days after taking the vaccine developed jointly by Pfizer and BioNTech.

Local health officials said on Friday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the Florida Health Department and the Miami-Dade medical examiner’s office were investigating the exact cause of Michael’s death, which was linked to a rare condition that affects the body’s ability to clot blood.

 DJ-Vaccines always do have a very limited risk. Often not taking the vaccine puts you in much higher risks...Pfizer, meanwhile, said it was “actively investigating the case,” acknowledging that Michael died of a “highly unusual clinical case of severe thrombocytopenia,” the blood-clotting condition, but noted it does not believe “there is any direct connection to the vaccine.”

Even if there was a link-Pfizer vaccines have been used millions of time by now. Is a severe reaction we have to monitor linked to the vaccine ? (If we know there may be some risk factors we can try to get a view on it-deal with it..)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 09 2021 at 10:04pm

DJ

-Some weekdays see higher numbers, others a decrease in numbers. Usually sundays does not see record number of cases. Still [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for saturday january 9 has high numbers. 

-Over 1/3 of new cases, 1/4 of all 12,437 deaths are from the US.

-Brazil, UK very high number of new cases-round 60,000 both above 1000 deaths

-South Africa-limited testing-#5 in new cases, #9 in new deaths

These high numbers most likely indicate variants are widespread. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 is trying to follow the developments of variants. It may "grow"like a tree-new branches can grow fast-develop their own variants...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/903498-genomics-inform-spike-protein-d614g-and-rdrp-p323l-the-sars-cov-2-mutations-associated-with-severity-of-covid-19[url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/903498-genomics-inform-spike-protein-d614g-and-rdrp-p323l-the-sars-cov-2-mutations-associated-with-severity-of-covid-19 It is good to know there is some monitoring of these developments. 

Given the extreme high numbers-real number of virus infections in all species worldwide must be above 1 million per day for some time now-getting enough sequences is a very hard-if not impossible-job. 

The only real solution is global lockdown some regions may not need it-for most parts of the world it is the only way out. I think vaccines will offer protection to most variants but they come to late to stop this spread. It would be nice if vaccinations and research could go on. 

Germany and Russia may start working together, Cuba and Iran. The UK with some other countries (Germany, Japan) did raise funds to get vaccines to Africa, Latin America, some parts of Asia. But also monitoring in these regions (with Nigeria, South Africa, Argentina a.o. having their own variants) has to improve. New variants may be the biggest risk at the moment....even bigger then the number of infections *allthough more infections=more mutations=more variants..) 

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/welsh-scientists-develop-covid-vaccine-smart-patch[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/welsh-scientists-develop-covid-vaccine-smart-patch ; According to the research team, the patch will use microneedles to both administer the coronavirus vaccine and monitor its efficacy for the patient by tracking the body's immune response. Scientists at Swansea’s IMPACT research center hope to carry out human clinical studies in partnership with Imperial College London with the aim of making the device commercially available within three years.

DJ-Distribution of vaccines by patches-door to door would make a major difference. These (from article)  high tech monitoring patches may take "some time" but also can take a burden from hospital/ICU care. If you can use clever cheap technology to monitor patients at home-even better then some hospitals can now offer-doctors/computers can see worsening coming and react in time. 

(For those wondering about privacy-it is a patch you can take off..)

Sewage-monitoring for virus particles is widely used. Chips could even check per household...and for more then Covid19. The result could be an "early warning health system" able to react (at streetlevel) if there is an increase of some sort of infections. (DJ-In NL sometimes sewage is also controlled for drugs-some places have much higher drug-use. To clean the water for consumption those drugs, micro-plastics etc has to be filtered out..) 

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arODi9gBZOE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=arODi9gBZOE (info/links under the video) ;

 -US cases going up, over 13% of tests are positive..Dr.J.C. surprised over low numbers during/after Christmas-New Years Eve...If I look at NL situation-the testing capacity was there-people did not come to get tested...(wanted to spent those days with family-even if they were very ill allready..) US hospial cases over 131,000 (up 5,3% in one week). Number of US deaths Dr.Fauci is an underestimate. (Very likely 400,000+) Dr.J.C. US is in crisis. Vaccinations around 7 million (of the available 16 million. Plan was 20 million vaccinations by the end of 2020).

Pres.Biden may change CDC/FDA rule and follow UK strategy of mass vaccinations-give as many people at least one vaccine. (The AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine may do better here then Pfizer and Moderna. But AZ/O vaccine still not approved by FDA and EMA.

Going for 100 million vaccinations in 100 days sounds great but will-for now-not slow down the spread (DJ-of variants-the US may have a mega-mix..)

 -UK Hospitals/ICU over capacity. Shortage of staff, means, average age at a London ICU is 60, 90% of patients where working..DJ;

AVERAGE AGE LONDON ICU 60 !!! 90% WAS WORKING !!!

For now statistics from ICU=30% dead, 70% chronic health issues...To be able to fight the infection the body defense system uses /"eats" muscles to improve immunity. 

The idea was the new variant would mean more cases, maybe in younger agegroups. But NOR more severe disease-allthough DJ virusparticles would be 10x more then with the "old" variant=the higher the viral load the more severe the infection...(First) vaccinations will increase (will offer protection against hospitalization within 10 days).

-Australia-vaccination will start end of february. Can already get AZ/O vaccines-even produce it in Australia-why do they not start ? (DJ-There is a real risk of variants-from 1 person- causing massive spread...vaccination NOW would be wise !) At this moment 36,000 Australians outside their country. Due to new variants now only 2500 per week can return (was 5000)-already one person with UK variant infection detected. All returnees put in isolation, tested etc. (there is some risk for staff working there). 

The UKvariant showed up in a woman AFTER 10 days isolation...doctors did find no spread. (DJ-Variants may need longer isolation ? two weeks ?) Five other UK variants showed up in people in isolation. 

-CDC study; 59% of infections =asymptomatic. 35=presymptomatic, 24 does not get (serious) symptoms at all=24+35=59% (DJ That is why this virus can spread that fast...most people do not know they are spreading a virus...The picture for "variants" most likely is even worse-infecting younger age groups.)

Another video about the SA variant [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCc13qWoQYQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCc13qWoQYQ ; DJ-"Dr.V" has his own way of presenting facts. Basic difference between UK variant and SA variant=UK variant has 1 mutation at Receptor Binding Motive (part of receptor binding domain-RBD-that makes contact with human (ACE-2 receptor) cells. The SA variant has THREE such changes...meaning easier infection and higher viral loads...

Mutations in virusses are at random-a virus "does not think" it needs a host for reproduction, therefore it is not even "alive" (DJ-it is in the "twilight zone" between dead harmfull things like poisons and living risks like bacteria). So far this corona virus did see over 15.000 mutations...Only if these mutations continue they become a "strain"..

Dr.V. expects the "UK variant" to get dominant in the US in march-because he believes the SA variant is not yet in the US...(DJ-SA-like variants all over Latin America-US has hardly any capacity to detect variants !)

Dr.V. was referring to [url]https://www.caprisa.org/[/url] or https://www.caprisa.org/ for the SA situation and [url]https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/[/url] or https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/ general info. 

The less virus spread=the less virus mutations=the less variants. Over time virusses are supposed to become less harmfull. If they kill their host they have to find another host to reproduce themselves. DJ Point is this corona-virus may be able to lump species. If reproduction in humans gets to hard it may find othher mammals to reproduce itself in (and jump back to humans later on..) So Dr.V. advice Stay at home, social distance, get vaccinated now ! 

New variants may evade vaccines so do not wait for that ! 

-Another Ivermectin study from Spain [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIUO08W94eY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yIUO08W94eY 

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OEL4P1Rz04[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2OEL4P1Rz04 for stress relief






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2021 at 9:40pm

DJ,

-A look at the numbers for sunday january 10 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Within two weeks we will be over 100 million cases, 2 million deaths...In new cases UK at #2, SA at #6, in new deaths UK at #3, SA at #8. SA has very limited testing. Its variant has THREE changes at the recepter binding matrix (RBM) part of the receptor binding domain (RBD) that connects the virus to human (ACE2 receptor) cells. The UK variant only has ONE such change.In practice the higher viral load DOES bring more severe disease-in younger people-as hospitalstatistics indicate...More changes at RBM/RBD seem to indicate higher infectiousness. There is some-limited-indication vaccination against and/or infection by the old variant of Covid 19 may open the door for getting infected by new variants. (See new variants-latest news)

I only can hope it is a very rare form of reinfection. The general view is that vaccinations seem to offer (some) protection against new variants as well (but having had an earlier Covid19 infection may maybe not offering the same protection ??)

NPI-social distancing-is the best way-and will remain so-for the duration of this pandemic. We may be in this worsening crisis for some time..New variants showing up all around the planet. Mixing of those variants will create even newer ones...

There may or may not be a "new US variant" there are many indications variants are also spreading in the US-as in Europe etc. Experts "waiting for proof" choose to keep running behind the facts-proactive action is needed to get this pandemic-destroying "our world" under control...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1utnG0ohSYQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1utnG0ohSYQ good news is lock down in the UK-and the very alarming news may be slowing down new cases...Yesterday another 4000 people needed hospital care in an overstretched hospitalsystem...UK number of deaths per week something DJ-between 7000 and 10.000.

-UK, Germany, Canada, Japan funding 1 billion vaccines for countries that can not pay for vaccines themselves. DJ-Other countries will also send billions of doses (Russia, China, Cuba, India, some Gulf states seem to be funding some initiatives..)

-Vaccines-FDA/EMA should approve the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine soon. It is easy to store, use etc. cheap...will be mass produced in numbers that matter worldwide. (DJ-In Europe Pfizer has a factory in Belgium-now working in Marburg (of all places) in Germany on a second factory that could be running within a few months..) Dr.J.C. was willing to help vaccinating people-but he did not hear anything on his offer yet...staff for vaccination can be a problem-there are often enough people willing and able to do so-but maybe not 40/60 hrs in a week..

-US cases up 4,2% in one week-now the US is getting close to (worldometer) 23 million cases-400.000 deaths..(up 19,2% in one week).Hospitalcases over 130,000 up 5,7% in one week. DJ-Dr.J.C. may be using CDC or other data.

-CDC Obesity (BMI>30) is a major US problem-42% of US residents are obese. In the US 9% has a BMI of 40+...is part of explanation for high number of US deaths...DJ-but not all-other illnesses/adictions will make situation worse, healthcare not available at its best for the poor, and most likely variants spreading undetected since the CDC is doing very limited sequencing of virusses to find new variants...In California 95,000 people volunteered for health care jobs-only 14 of them did find a workplace...(DJ-Here in NL also people that did work till 2010 in health care are refused because lack of fresh experience...)

-Belgium has a very high number of deaths since they include ALL deaths with a positive Covid19 test...most countries have a much more limited definition resulting in lower number of Covid-deaths...DJ Excess deaths may give a better picture of the effects of this pandemic. People dying from non-covid causes due to all healthcare going for Covid-patients also are dead due to this pandemic..)

-Cuba-Dr.J.C. calls this island "a medical power house"-so far 14,188 cases, 148 deaths-number of deaths doubled since november. (DJ-Cuba is "isolated" from the US has good relations with Latin America, Europe, Asia, Africa...only if you believe the US is the center of everything countries like Cuba, Iran, Syria are "isolated"...maybe watch less western propaganda...)

Cuba is working on FOUR vaccines, one of them will get tested in Iran. DJ-Since healthcare in Cuba is state controlled it is available for all-not just a rich elite. One of the basic problems is "healthcare for profit" insanity !)

-Israel may by now have vaccinated two million of its just over 9 million population. It did detect several UK variants and 4 SA variants...DJ-For that matter Israel may become a testcase for showing how good the vaccines do their job. Most likely there will be administration to see what vaccine is been given-and how it works out in the coming years...because also there are questions on the duration of protection by vaccines-do you need a boost after some years..[url]https://www.debka.com/can-vaccinations-backed-by-lockdown-outrun-galloping-covid-strains/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/can-vaccinations-backed-by-lockdown-outrun-galloping-covid-strains/

The first and largest human laboratory for the contest between vaccination and covid plus variants is offered by Israel, with its crash program of vaccinations combined with a stringent lockdown. The deadline for first results has been set for late March, when PM Binyamin Netanyahu promises the country will be out of the woods and ready to go back to pre-pandemic normal.

For now, the woods are closing in darkly. Friday and Saturday saw a relentless increase in the number of mortalities – more than 60 new deaths, raising the total to 3,645 since the outbreak began and 993 seriously ill patients out of a the 1,710 in hospital. The ultra-religious Jewish and Arab communities show the highest numbers of infection, But they along with the general public are more ready to cooperate with the strict two-week lockdown that went into effect at Thursday midnight, although police roadblocks were out to boost enforcement on the highways and in towns.

-

Pfizer had decided that immunizing the population of a whole country provides a priceless framework for the final mass trial of its product. The World Health Organization like the company is eagerly awaiting results.

-

Herd immunity may evolve, is one, she said, and preventing virus mutants from developing before they take root, is another. The manufacturers will have access to verified data for research into improvements and further development of their vaccine.  

-

Medical professionals continue to believe the current vaccines provide protection from the new covid mutations, though data is not yet comprehensive enough for a final determination. However, a joint Pfizer and Texas University research showed in its first trial the company’s vaccine capable of killing the British and the South African strains, although it has yet to be exposed to peer scrutiny. After the British covid mutant was discovered in different parts of the country, partly accounting for the soaring infection, four cases of the South African variant were identified, both sourced to people who returned from South Africa or were in contact with them.

DJ Israel as a country in a medical experiment...it is good Israel is willing and able to take this role.

-US President Biden has the good idea that during a pandemic vaccines should be used not stored...CDC rules for the moment do not share that view. 

-There has been a "green flight" from New Zealand to Australia-both countries-for now-have the pandemic under control. Dr.J.C. still that is no reason to wait till the end of february for starting mass vaccinations. DJ-The UK variants spread fast, the SA variant even faster...if vaccines offer protection start vaccinating NOW !!! A false sense of safety can prove to be very wrong !

-CDC study average incubation period after infection now put at 5 days (was 6)-spread of virus parts for average 10 days. CDC 30% never get symptoms, Dr.J.C. 20% according to tracker app (DJ-very mild symptoms may be ignored by most ?) From the a-symptomatic 75% shed as much virus as infected with symptoms-CDC 24% of all infections from a-symptomatic infected people. Another 35% of ALL infections are from pre-symptomatic people-DJ (I did write about this yesterday as well but it shows most of the (old variant) spread is "under the radar"-almost 60%...

-UK study on children 12-16 y/o spread the virus as much as adults...Dr.J.C. has been saying this from the start. New variant seems to spread even faster at young age groups...

DJ NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/10/three-week-lockdown-extension-planned-netherlands-report[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/10/three-week-lockdown-extension-planned-netherlands-report and of course related [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/10/bad-air-quality-netherlands-makes-thousands-people-want-move[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/10/bad-air-quality-netherlands-makes-thousands-people-want-move 

In general the view seems to still be vaccination may offer good protection against the "old variant" and at least some protection against new variants that are starting to dominate this world. By the end of this month we may know how good vaccines are doing. What vaccines are doing better. Worldwide a lot of vaccines from the US, UK, Russia, China, Cuba etc by then may show how well they are doing. The picture I (DJ) have on vaccines China may be most active in exporting vaccines. They do have limited vaccinations in China. In the Bejing area there are limited new cases showing up. But in general the pandemic in China seems to be past history with lots of unhappy memories...Western media is not giving much info about non-western vaccines. If the info is not in English "it is not available"...even Spanish seems to be hard...

Music; Harry Belafonte & The Muppets-Day-O-Banana Boat Song [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-4xyg4PU-U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-4xyg4PU-U ...another world


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 11 2021 at 9:36pm

DJ

-From [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901351-b-1-1-7-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-more-contagious-confirmed-and-critical-b117-infection-of-new-variant-of-patient-with-antibodies-for-old-variant/page6#post902344[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901351-b-1-1-7-variant-of-covid19-coronavirus-more-contagious-confirmed-and-critical-b117-infection-of-new-variant-of-patient-with-antibodies-for-old-variant/page6#post902344 ; "Speaking about the long-term outlook for the pandemic, Professor Ferguson said: "Looking forward we’re going to be living with coronavirus indefinitely, we’re never going to eliminate it from the human population, it will evolve, and we may need to regularly update our vaccines.""

DJ-Makes me wonder if covid19(+) is a "way to restore balance" between nature and humans ? Only if we limit ourselves we may return to "some sort of normal". If we change how we live, not jumping up and down the planet...

-The january 11 numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are "low". Of course they reflect testing/reporting from sunday jan-10. But maybe, just maybe, news about hospitals at breaking point did reach enough people to get some changes...

-Dr.J.C. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxJtHPWmicE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxJtHPWmicE ;

 -Around 10% of cases end up in hospital 13 days after testing positive. There is a limit to hospital capacity. The deadliest part of a pandemic is when demand for hospitalcare gets above capacity. 

In some hospitals shortage of oxygen, or room to "store" those who died DJ-shortage of staff, medical supplies-needles etc can show up in NL. About 15% of staff may be infected or in isolation.

Is UK lockdown having an impact ? First indications show a slowdown of increase of cases. DJ-HCW-ers are NOT robots...must be exhausted by now...In England 200.000 vaccinations per day...(DJ-For now NPI-lockdowns and vaccines are the "weapons" we have. Vaccination may slow down number of infections if they are effective against new variants..)

 -Dr.J.C. why vaccins are in such small vials ? DJ-Why does the company not produce "ready-to-use-vaccines", why not "high pressure vaccinations" (without syringes - just a larger bottle on a high pressure vaccination "gun" ?) if the idea is to vaccinate billions of people as fast as one can ? 

 -Dr.J.C. Why a politician is running the UK vaccination campain-not a logistics expert ? 

 - New UK variant does mean increase of cases in ALL age groups-first indications on hospitalcases show no disproportionate number of younger people in hospitals. (DJ-Worldwide we did see doubling of cases in 10 weeks...statistics can give indications-last ten weeks increase in part to US thanksgiving/social events...but in part also from variants giving increasing numbers since november.)

 DJ-When you compare the UK/EU/US situation with the one in SA (South Africa/Suid Afrika) one has to remember SA has a much younger population, now is in summer, healthcare not as good as in many westerncountries. So the picture during this pandemic has to be different. 

For me the biggest worry is in how fast new variants may show up and how they may spread in other species. Many countries may already have a limited number of UK and SA variants within their borders. Will these variants mix-create a new variant ? Latin America may heve several new variants (Brazil, Argentina) of wich we simply do not know enough. Monitoring variants-doing everythingh we can to get less variants has to be top-priority. 

This means further minimizing (air)travel...if people want to return to their home country they should stay there. Why is it that hard for governments to say hollidays abroad are not allowed ? 

If global cases-most likely due to news on the London and LA, UK/US  situation-slow down that is good news. If we can get ourselves out of this pandemic a more normal social live may restart during this year...Is there a future for mass meetings, gyms, schools and other "spreadevents"? We may have to rethink that ? Can we not organize more work/study from home ? If people want to go on holliday often within a 100 miles radius there is that much to see and enjoy...

[url]https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/11/national/science-health/new-coronavirus-variant-japan/[/url] or https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/01/11/national/science-health/new-coronavirus-variant-japan/

A new coronavirus variant has been detected in four travelers from Brazil’s Amazonas state, Japan’s health ministry said Sunday. The strain differs from highly infectious variants first found in Britain and South Africa that have driven a surge in cases in those countries.

A ministry official said studies were underway into the efficacy of vaccines against the new variant.

DJ-At least a lot of variants are detected-but very likely most are found if people need testing crossing borders...The "old" variant did see almost 60% a/pre-symptomatic spread (CDC-study) we do not know that much for the new variants..

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKlDmM4mdMU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKlDmM4mdMU Dr. Vuong on how vaccines work...

Music U2 with a Harlem-NY- gospell choir - I still haven't found what I'm looking for...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8Wt3dhF4fU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8Wt3dhF4fU 


 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 12 2021 at 9:39pm

DJ

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  has to be reflecting already a lot of new variant cases on tuesday january 12. Ireland increases see 50% UK variant, Israel must have "high numbers"of variants, most west european countries go for stricter rules to try to keep virus spread low...there is limited reports of crematoria running out of capacity...

-Of all reported/tested cases 1-in-3 is in the US. At #31 is Ireland-reporting over 3000 new cases, 45 deaths on a population of 5 million. Israel (#16) has 9000 new cases, 67 deaths on a population of just over 9 million. Czechia (#15) 9294 new cases and 66 deaths on a population of just over 10 million. 

-Did every 10 million cases bring a new variant ? Does the increase of cases mean more variants come faster ? In a lot of places more variants are spreading-will that mean these mixed variants become even variants of more risk ? What do new variants do with pets, other animals ? To find answer samples need sequencing. That capacity is limited. For that matter we may still be at the beginning of this pandemic-we are still in many ways blind. Experts may have not seen this coming...

-Time is needed to find answers but increases go very fast. My impression is lots of politicians keep underestimating what pandemics can do..."Experts" only can compare with more recent much smaller outbreaks-NOT with a pandemic in wich hundreds of millions must have been (re)infected...this is likely the largest pandemic since the Spanish Flu. In absolute numbers soon more people may have been infected then were around in 1918.  

-The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic, was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. Lasting from February 1918 to April 1920, it infected 500 million people – about a third of the world's population at the time – in four successive waves. The death toll is typically estimated to have been somewhere between 20 million and 50 million, although estimates range from a conservative 17 million to a possible high of 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in human history.[3][4][5]

DJ (from [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu ) In reported cases we now have just over 92 million cases-but today will see another increase of tested/reported 500,000/700,000 cases. We are close to two million deaths..and it could be the worst is still to come...

The GOOD part of this story is one can protect him/herself ! Work/study/shop from home if you can. Social distancing, masks, and accept this situation may go on for months-even if you hate every second of it...

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzvNcckyd5g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dzvNcckyd5g (already several hours old-but I combine my breakfast with making sense of this pandemic...) ;

 -Dr.J.C. looks at statistics (also) ; 1 US may have higher numbers the Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico-they also have testing-other countries in Latin America hardly have testing...(DJ-so the real picture is far worse-with several variants spreading)

2 Israel and UK at same level of case-increases per capita...Israel has over 20% of its population vaccinated-is not-yet-showing in the statistics (DJ-Both cases do have strict lockdowns for some time-still high number of new cases..)

3 Ireland even higher number of cases-per capita-then the UK. Limited medical facilities....(a combination of Christmas celebrations and the UK variant...)

4 Spain cases increasing, Portugal already at UK level...Czechia even (much) worse then the UK...Sweden cases per capita almost at UK level...

5 NL and DK (DenmarK) Dr.J.C. restrictions are working-cases decreasing "lets hope the UK variant does not show up there much"-well DJ-already in NL 2-5% of cases are the UK variant...present restrictions are not maintained so a limited number of people try to do what they can...I do expect the UK variant to explode in NL...

Dr.J.C. did not mention East Asia, South Korea, Japan see new increases. China has a very limited number of new (imported) cases and is doing all it can to keep new variants out...(an almost impossible job-the old variant had 60% a/pre-symptomatic spread-the newer variants could be worse...some-possible-variants may evade testing...Keep borders closed, 40 day isolation for those that come in may then be the best protection still not 100%).

 -Dr.J.C. UK/SA variants may not yet be widespread in the US (no evidence for it-DJ-also statistics have been high for some time already, NPI, Lockdown, masks "political"). Due to variants we may see a dramatic increase in US cases...(DJ- I think Dr.J.C. may be correct. If the CDC would have found hundreds of UK/SA variants they would have mentioned it...but the idea variants still have to start spreading in the US is terrible...)

 -Yesterdays number of US deaths at 4281 is a new US record...DJ-If the variants get widespread in the US the daily number of deaths may run in the tens of thousends (per day !!!) Already the US has seen an increase of 8,3% of cases in last week, 13% of testing was positive (has to be <5%) meaning already high community spread...

 -In the US vaccinations yesterday still under 9 million-the idea was to have over 20 million people vaccinated in 2020. Dr.J.C. why the FDA is silint on the AstraZeneca vaccine-easy to store, transport, easy to produce, cheap...(DJ-The EMA in Europe will decide on the AZ/O vaccine (AstraZeneca/Oxford) this month-(DJ must be under pressure to do so next week)-is the FDA only looking at AZ/O vaccine in april ? (Is it a "communist" vaccine since it is not for profit ? While Moderna and Pfizer doubled their prices to get even more tax money for their shareholders ?)

 -The US will use all vaccines available from now on-not keeping 50% in reserve (DJ-For what-how much more worse can it get ?). The idea is that production increases will cover for second vaccination. (DJ-"The Biden-plan" 100 million vaccinations in 100 days is hopefull-can it start early february ?) At this moment the US has 40 million vaccines ready...

 -UK last two days cases are decreasing but still high. Last week trend still had an increase of 5,5% . Testing did increase 32% last week. Hospital cases up 34% last week...over 32,000 UK covid19 patients in hospital...The UK did see 6485 deaths last week up 50%. Excess deaths is 15% higher then normal-numbers comparable with World War Two... 

 -Ireland may choose to vaccinate those who had had Covid19 earlier can wait a bit longer for getting vaccinations. Natural infection does offer protection-so vaccines can be used to widen herd-immunity (with vaccinating those who not yet have had a Covid19 infection). Dr.J.C. repeats-SARS-1 immunity lasts at least 17 years...

 -Sweden-Dr.J.C. had a look at Sweden government website...no plan, no statistics...An e-mail reporting sharp increases in Southern Sweden, also sometimes 50% of carecenters have infections...

DJ-Dr.J.C.'s goal is to warn people-you can act now !!! Governments can, and should,  go for stricter rules NOW ! The "tsunami of cases" is coming. UK numbers suggest stricter lockdowns can bring down numbers-why wait with actions ? 

The global impact of this Covid-pandemic will be dramatic. There are some claims Chinese vaccines "only offer 50% protection" -it could be true or western propaganda...Yes countries giving aid to other countries ALWAYS want something in return-if not money or products it may be UN votes...

The real spread, number of cases and variants in most of the world is unknown due to lack of testing and sequencing...The idea still is the more widespread the virus gets in time it will get milder...

This pandemic is doing its horror against a background of climate collapse-that did not stop. The Arctic Ocean is more and more becoming a part of the Atlantic Ocean-with warm water moving in, less ice-more often warmer air moving north... 

DJ-I do not want to become depressing but I like to know "where we are" in the desert you need water and shelter, in Greenland you need warm clothing, during a serious pandemic you need a safe place and some stocks...

[url]https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/watch-the-2021-doomsday-clock-announcement-on-january-27/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/2021/01/watch-the-2021-doomsday-clock-announcement-on-january-27/ ; The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will host a live international news conference at 10 a.m. EST/1500 GMT on Wednesday, January 27, 2021, to announce the 2021 time of the Doomsday Clock. The news conference will take place virtually via Zoom. Watch the announcement live on our website or on our Facebook page.

DJ-I think you have to see this pandemic in a wider perspective. What is our outlook for the future and what can/should we do to improve that. Lying and denying, nice words but no action-has brought us in this situation...only if you are willing to take an honest look at problems you may be able to get out of those problems...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCwOrTLIk9w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCwOrTLIk9w This Train-The Seekers 1969...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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