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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2021 at 10:30pm

DJ,

A look at the january 13 numbers from [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

-Not yet record breaking number of new cases-745,811 is high (record is 839,340 from january 8). I expect the number of new cases soon to be over 1 million per day. 

-Record number of deaths at 16,362 (tested/reported) we most likely will go over the 2 million deaths today...

-South Africa is showing up in both cases/deaths top ten even with limited testing. There is some increase of cases in countries bordering SA suggesting the SA variant may be spreading north. But limited testing/reporting and hardly any sequensing is not giving a clear picture.

Other news-The EMA (European Medicin Agency)/EU is having talks with Russia over the Sputnik-5 vaccine. I would not be surprised if one or more Chinese vaccin producers are also invited for talks. 

China is now doing all kind of deals. One deal under discussion may be access for Deutsche Telecom for China if in return a Chinese telecom company could get access to Germany (and via Germany to Europe). Turkey is already using Chinese vaccins-there are talks over Chinese investments in infrastructure. (All TIP-Turkey-Iran-Pakistan countries use Chinese vaccins-with doors open to other suppliers. Cuba is working with Iran, AstraZeneca/Oxford (AZ/O) may get used in Turkey, Pakistan..)

Here in NL-out of worry for variants-there is discussion on stricter rules; curfews, no visitors etc. (problem is still a lot of people ignore these rules and get away with it). A political majority wants to stop all flights to and from the UK...several flights per day to Bristol, Glasgow, London still going on...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB6GCnADmcg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NB6GCnADmcg  ; 

 -China-seems to be an increase of reported cases in Bejing and near the Russian border-so there are lockdowns in some regions. (Number of cases jan12=55, 13=115 14=138+1 death so there is an increase over very limited numbers but China will /did impose restrictions to get the number of cases to 0). WHO team arrived in China to investigate "how it started" (DJ-Even if China would be an open book it may be hard to get that clear..). SinoVac vaccine in Brazil "only 50,4% effective-DJ-There is a struggle between bolsenaro promoting AstraZeneca and the governor of Sao Paulo promoting Chinese vaccins-Brazil numbers may not be the best. Turkey is claiming 91,25% effectivity...Countries have their own experts to take a look..) Indonesia also going for SinoVac

 -AZ/O asked for EMA aproval-EMA has been doing a rolling review-may accept AZ/O "soon" (Dr.J.C. 29th of january-today is 14th-there will be a lot of pressure from countries-I think it could be next week (from 18th january)...Since the EU is-after China and India the third largest market-with over 450 million people-AND AZ/O is easy to store/transport (AZ/O is a UK/Sweden vaccine) it may open the door to mass global production DJ-Allready 30 "partners" from the US to Russia, India are willing to produce the-easy to make-vaccine. 

 -Dr.J.C. disappointed about the slow reaction. AZ/O for the US may have to wait till the end of march ? DJ-Global vaccination on such a large scale is in a slow start. Pfizer and Moderna are not very practical due to deep-freeze storage/transport. (DJ-Big pharma did try to slow down AZ/O development-must be a MoA article somewere...) Sputnik-5 may still be with some production problems-Turkey was believed to start producing Sputnik-5 as well, SinoVac is available, cheap, easy to use/store..AZ/O will become another dominant vaccine. (If a vaccine does not do a proper job in several countries orders will get cancelled-soon there will be an over production of vaccines, a buyers market...)

 -Record low flu numbers-in part to lockdowns/NPI and the most prevalent flu-virus may not be very infectious/virulent (so a lot of immunity already there). 

 -US cases up 12,9% last week, positive test 12,7% over 120,000 in hospital (DOWN ! 0,1% since last week-only sickest patients remain in hospital) Deaths up 24,3% Vaccinations close to 10 million, another 1 million already had second vaccine. DJ-new (US) variants may have been spreading in the US for some time, some of those variants may be more agressive could become dominant variant. With some bad luck the US could become a mixing ground for all kind of variants-creating even more dangerous variants..(A nightmare could be a variant that evades PCR testing and (with that) most vaccines...so far the US -in absolute numbers-is leading in vaccinations wich also could "push the virus in new directions"-new variants and mass vaccinations in the best scenario (very optimistic) could help to end the pandemic..the worst-more realistic-given the history-is the virus "find new ways"to "do its thing"...

 -San Diego gorilla's positive for Covid19 based on symptoms. DJ- two out of eight showed symptoms, an employee tested positive but was a-symptomatic. They did not test the gorillas to avoid extra stress. Mild symptoms-troop is isolated..Dr.J.C. raises questions on animal reservoir for Covid19-in the UK foxes, badgers (DJ-also pets, cats seem to get it more easy then dogs..)

 - UK cases now between 45,000 and 50,000 per day. R0 between 1 and 1,4 (with a strict lockdown-in many area's people not allowed to go outside !) last week -0,5% increase of cases...(DJ then the R0 would be 1...) Over 32,000 in UK hospitals, almost 27,000 admitted last week, with almost 7000 deaths last week one may get a picture of what the perspective is for hospital cases...(DJ-Only the sickest stay in hospital-the most serious cases to die, others to get basic care...hospitals overstretched for weeks...staff is exhausted..) Number of deaths increased 45,6% in a week...(Dr.J.C. and will keep increasing for the coming weeks..)

Increase in cases=increase in hospital cases after 13 days=increase in deaths after 30 days...So the UK peak on deaths will be early february. Vaccinations by now over 2,5 million...

 -Sweden government website HAS info on cases etc. (DJ-Dr.J.C. did not look good enough or the website-design is not open enough...it would be nice if the WHO could think of a standard website used by all WHO members for better communications..) It looks like Sweden has a very limited English website and a better one in Swedish (with some langauge skills the basic info is understandable for non-Swedish speakers..). Dr.J.C. did get an email on Sweden variants, UK variant=25 8 of them no UK travel history, SA variant 2-both with SA travel history..)

 -A company from Bangla Desh is buying AstraZeneca vaccines (3 million dodes) to sell for profit...DJ-It would be a good thing if making profit out of a pandemic was forbidden !!! Big Pharma can start a pandemic out of greed. Pharma companies making/developing vaccines, tests, medication need to have their costs covered...till recent a lot of those companies were state-owned working for public interest not for shareholders profit...

WAR

[url]https://southfront.org/on-urgent-search-for-new-war-pompeo-alleges-iran-new-home-base-of-al-qaeda/[/url] or https://southfront.org/on-urgent-search-for-new-war-pompeo-alleges-iran-new-home-base-of-al-qaeda/ DJ-Every one with some basics on the story knows both al-quada and IS are CIA/KSA/Gulf States proxies...basicly meant against Russia-Iran-China. 

[url]https://southfront.org/u-s-declassified-its-indo-pacific-strategy-largely-focused-on-containing-china/[/url] or https://southfront.org/u-s-declassified-its-indo-pacific-strategy-largely-focused-on-containing-china/ 

It "would be welcome" if trump did not start another major war in his last days...

News on variants (a.o. from Malaysia) in latest news, war in World War 3 section.."good news" on the variants is many countries see-and fear-the new variants and are preparing to deal with it. Ireland had the misfortune of the UK variants mixing with Christmas and New Year-with also "to much room" for social events...Israel did attack-based on US intel-Iran positions in Syria  (near Iraq border) killing-according to some sources-over 50 pro-Iran fighters. US troops (against international law) in Iraq under increased pressure-also US forces (illegal) in Syria under both Arab and Kurdish pressure...with Turkey and Russia also wanting the US forces (stealing Syrian oil (for the CIA ?) out. 

Music; or sort of [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnT7pT6zCcA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnT7pT6zCcA Ode To Joy-Muppets...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 2:13am

DJ,

I was looking at the World War 3 section could not find it-did it disappear ? "Whowants yesterdays papers" ? (Well-I love "yesterdays papers...) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuyTZJyo-FY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuyTZJyo-FY Rolling Stones...

-Will RIC become ERIC ? 

Will Europe join Russia-Iran-China ? Some facts; "F..k the EU" US coup in Ukraine (under Obama) has a long lasting echo. The NPA spying on Merkel(s phone) also "did not improve EU-US relations...trump breaking the Iran-deal has already given "ERIC" some shape-since the EU, Russia, China also were partners in that deal-the US not only did break a deal with Iran...

Other "frustrations" [url]https://southfront.org/the-f-35-works-perfectly-fine-apart-from-its-nearly-900-deficiencies/[/url] or https://southfront.org/the-f-35-works-perfectly-fine-apart-from-its-nearly-900-deficiencies/, North/Turk stream...

Expressed in US$ the US still can dream the US is the #1 economy of the world. In "goods/trade" both China and EU are already larger then the US, India is expected to become #3 (after EU-China) within a decade...

US sanctions on EU companies working on Russian pipelines, China Huawei also did not improve EU-US relations, a trade war is "unwise"...

When you look at the numbers Russia is a minor player in the "ERIC" scenario. Its population of 145 million, economy not much bigger then that of Spain, the main role for Russia is being in the middle of EU-China and TIP(A) (Turkey-Iran-Pakistan (Afghanistan). The EU has a population of 450 million, TIPA around 440 million, China over 1,4 billion. 

Russia is well aware of its weak and strong points, both the location and energy are trump cards...For the EU Brexit did put Germany and France in a leading position-Italy in many ways on the same line. There is a shift from the North Sea towards the Mediterranean Sea...former French protectorates, Lebanon and Syria become interesting for their links with Middle East energy supply. Italy has historic ties with Libya. Turkey/Erdogan has dreams of a new Ottoman Empire...

Israel is "playing"both sides with using the US for weapons and protection while talking to Russia and China about investments...Europe in many ways as a main trading partner. Peace with some Arab states-presented by trump as a US victory-may in fact be the groundwork for growing Chinese and Russian influence. 

For oil producing countries the US increasing production (by fracking) was "not very welcome". Their main customer is China-that has a choice in whom to get its energy from and under what conditions... In fact the US-by increasing its oil production may have blown up the US-petro-$ ! 

Major energy consumers-both China and the EU-do not have an interest in supporting the US$. Also energy producers-Russia and Saudi Arabia as #2 and #3-also do not want to stick to the US$. Besides that US-energy (in the form of LNG) is more expensive then alternatives...

The US is trying to frustrate other countries (Venezuela, Iran) or trying to control the energy (Iraq, Libya) but that strategy is proving not effective and costly. The wars it creates have been going on for over a decade and only damages further the US interests...Other countries see what the US is doing to countries that do want to get away from the US-petro-$...China and Russia are making deals with these countries so Chinese and Russian companies (with protection) can do the exploration...

On top of these developments came the pandemic. The US came up with Pfizer and Moderna-expensive, unpractical vaccines. The "America First" strategy may have caused "difficulties"for the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine delaying production. When you look at the global situation China is selling/offering its vaccines in Latin America, most of Asia and Africa on a large scale. AstraZeneca/Oxford soon will become a second major player able to produce "hundreds of millions" of vaccines per year in over 30 locations..

With the UK out of the EU the Poland-Ukraine link may be "a bit of a problem" for better EU-Russia relations-but improving relations with Russia does not need to be the main goal...There is a southern alternative via TIP(A) with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor as a main link between Europe and China. China is also a major investor in African (oil)infrastructure (also (rail)roads) and ports.

Like China the EU-to a certain limit-has a choice on where to get its energy from. It is in both "countries"interest to spread energy sources. Iran can be a partner but may have limited energy to offer. For China the South China Sea is important, for the EU Africa may be of growing importance (with China already a main investor in Angola, Mozambique). 

The US "is being in the way" for both the EU and China...by its actions the US is pushing not only Russia, Iran, China(RIC) towards each other-also Europe may be moving towards "ERIC"...

India-with Australia and Japan-for now-may be on the US side. Historical India has had good ties with Russia. Asia is a growing market..if Mohdi-and his Hindu extremist party-loses the election India will change its route. Indonesia is already doing lots of bussiness with both Russia (weapons) and China (energy). (In fact if China would pay Russia for Indonesian energy and Russia send weapons that triangle would get more simple...). 

Some Arab States feel a need to limit influence of both Iran and (still NATO) Turkey...competition means also support for IS actions all over Africa (with CIA support). Both that strategy is not interesting for a longer term...

Is there a way out for the US in this downward spiral ?-DJ-Yes I think so, words in stead of weapons...co-operation in stead of 'divide and rule'. There is a market for US energy-but it may be the US has to accept other currencies then the $. The "dream"of everlasting petro-$ is history-the sooner the US gets that the better...Latin America is not inhabited by "sub-humans"-a bit more respect for non US-citizens would be welcome...Again-Spain, Netherlands, the UK "once ruled the world" and manage-maybe even better-in a less dominant position. Being #1 is not always good...




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 4:21am

According to Hal T, we're already at war....

Conspiracy theorists on social media wonder if Chinese troops have invaded Maine

The invasion tale apparently started soon after the earthquake with a broadcast the night of the earthquake by New Jersey radio host Hal Turner, a right-wing commentator who proclaims that he focuses on the news the media refuses to cover.

That night, he told listeners he had "devastating, dangerous, serious stuff to talk about" and proceeded to tell them that the site of the alleged quake was actually "an underground facility with Chinese troops inside the United States who had been brought by boat from the Bay of Fundy."

More than 50,000 of those troops died, he said, when the U.S. dropped a 30,000-pound, bunker-busting bomb on the facility to try to thwart a longstanding Chinese effort to take over America.

"Ladies and gentlemen, we got real trouble," Turner said. "I am the only media outlet reporting this."

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/conspiracy-theorists-on-social-media-wonder-if-chinese-troops-have-invaded-maine-1.655546

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 7:17am

ksc, 

-I (DJ) think HT often is "bonkers"....wonder why he is keeping Chinese forces planning to ivade the US via Canada...Is it a "personal form of insanity" or is there some "false flag idea" behind it ? Another way to create unrest is the "why" question [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/why-is-a-cobra-ball-aircraft-flying-over-des-moines-and-omaha[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/why-is-a-cobra-ball-aircraft-flying-over-des-moines-and-omaha ...(DJ Why not ? Because planes fly ? Maybe Des Moines and Omaha are nice places to see ?)

-[url]https://www.omropfryslan.nl/nijs/1024566-britske-coronafariant-yn-soarchsintrum-t-suyderhuys-yn-surhusterfean[/url] or https://www.omropfryslan.nl/nijs/1024566-britske-coronafariant-yn-soarchsintrum-t-suyderhuys-yn-surhusterfean ; The highly contagious British variant of the coronavirus has been detected in at least two residents of the residential care center 't Suyderhuys in Surhuisterveen. This is reported by the Quadrant Group, which includes the residential care center. Among 21 other residents who also tested positive for the coronavirus, the GGD assumes that they have the infectious variant as well.

DJ-In total almost a 100 patients and HCW-ers tested positive, if they all turn out to have the UK variant this outbreak in the north of NL may be the biggest cluster outside UK, Ireland, Israel ? When there also would not be a direct UK travel it would be a bigger problem..Day-to-day cases show slight increase in NL-may be a sign the UK variant might be increasing-since we do have a lockdown in NL and the UK variant is much in the news.

Another major outbreak in the north of NL is in Ter Apel where there is a prison for asylum-seekers that are supposed to be send away. Both prisoners and prison workers have been infected...not clear if that could be the UK variant as well. 

The Dutch CDC will study samples to see how many of them may have the UK variant....it is a major worry in NL. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/14/rutte-begs-mps-block-curfew-2000-0400-considered[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/14/rutte-begs-mps-block-curfew-2000-0400-considered 

The NL trade unions want a better minimum wage-part of the problems with/in this pandemic is income inequality [url]https://www.voor14.nl/english_page[/url] or https://www.voor14.nl/english_page (voor14=for 14 %/hr bruto minimum wage to cover costs-including healthinsurance...Some "working poor" save money by getting no insurance...) 

-Also in Denmark/DK variants are increasing [url]https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics[/url] or https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics (via Flutrackers)....

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=171J_hC83XU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=171J_hC83XU should you treat fever or not ? No-it is a sign the body is fighting an infection. High fever is a problem-you may need a doctor but a bit of a fever for a few days may be helpfull fighting a disease...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 7:17am

Maybe India's rates will pick up (provided they test)  India's Kumbh Mela festival begins  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-55657711

"Hindus believe bathing will help them attain "moksha", setting them free from the cycle of birth and death. " Maybe they are looking for an early release from the cycle of birth and death?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2021 at 9:39pm

EdwinSm, I think testing/reporting in India is a problem. Most likely each state inside India has its own testing/reporting...info may go slow. Since it is such a large country with much room for animals to mix with people there most likely will be new variants spreading. I do think the UK and SA variants also will be spreading in India. 

One can compare the numbers with Africa...very limited testing gives very limited cases reported.

DJ

-The numbers for thursday january 14. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; USA still #1 in absolute numbers, UK in top 3 with both cases (even with strict rules for almost a month) and deaths. Brazil, Mexico reporting high numbers...

We did cross the 2 million worldwide reported Covid deaths (excess deaths worldwide could be (+)10%), Germany did get over the 2 million cases...China reported 144 new cases, yesterday it was 138, the day before 115. DJ-In urban area's China seem to have very strict controls-in rural area's it looks like there may be less control, more spread. We may need China to supply the world with vaccines, health care, medications-also to "restart" the global economy...

Variants must be spreading all over the globe. Germany may go for mandatory FFP2 masks for public transport and the very limited number of shops still open. France is going for an even stricter curfew-not allowed to go outside from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m.. Even NL may go for a curfew, stricter rules...News about the UK corona-disaster will have some impact on how people behave...(I think social media make communications harder-for some people reading two lines is reading a book. They need talking heads telling simple stories...)

The numbers for Ireland, Israel do look bad-both hard hit with the UK variant. Czechia also looking bad...(countries with-like the UK-already strong restrictions...and still it spreads)

[url]https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/13/covid-denier-fined-200-for-uploading-pictures-of-empty-hospitals-13897226/[/url] or https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/13/covid-denier-fined-200-for-uploading-pictures-of-empty-hospitals-13897226/ In the UK you can get punished for (on purpose) spreading false news on this pandemic.

[url]https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40207043.html[/url] or https://www.irishexaminer.com/world/arid-40207043.html ;

The Brazilian variant has three key mutations in the spike receptor binding domain (RBD) that largely mirror some of the mutations experts are worried about in the South African variant.

-

The E484K mutation has been shown to reduce antibody recognition, helping the virus to bypass immune protection provided by prior infection or vaccination.

-

Data also suggests the Brazilian variant has been detected in Japan.

DJ-There will be info on the differences between the SA variant and the Brazilian (and Argentina) one...but they may be "very related". I would not be surprised if the (Portuguese speaking) Brazil did import it from Southern Africa (Angola and Mozambiqua also Portuguese speaking countries exporting oil a.o.)

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UTC9hW_VsA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UTC9hW_VsA ;

 -A study on reinfections (in HCW-ers) has 0,66% of people reinfected (mildly) within a 5 month period. They still-after reinfection-may infect others. "Natural immunity"offers 83% protection, vaccination may offer 95% protection (depending on the vaccine). DJ This study can not have included variants-the risks for reinfection must increase due to those variants...another issue is "mild" reinfection will be the result if the reïnfected has had time enough to recover...if there still is a lot of damage I guess the outlook for getting reinfected is "less good".

Conclusion still-yes there is a chance for reinfection but less then 1% does get reinfected and often then only have mild (or no) symptoms. Since they do spread the virus any idea of "immunity pasports" is a bad one...

 -In the study they did think of immunity against the UK variant-since the immune reaction "detects" a lot of "parts" of the (variant) virus (DJ-and so far mutations are changing less then 0,1% of the "old" covid19 virus RNA) the idea is immunity (natural or by vaccine) may still be effective against the UK variant...DJ-"In the news" there seems to be a lot of worry over the SA and Brazil variant (with a very high degree of similarity)...so how certain are "the experts" on immunity against those new variants ? (HCW-ers are "not average citizens" in age, health, and-depending on the group gender-(HCWers may have women over represented compared to the general population)-so this is another side note-their (knowledge of) protection may be much better..)

 -Dr.J.C. Why there is a W.H.O. team (of virologists) in China if they only will (be able) to get China government evidence/samples ? (DJ-If you believe a lab-accident could be the reason for this outbreak are virologists the right persons to investigate ?)

 -Lebanon going for a FULL lockdown for 11 days-even closing supermarkets (you can order groceries-that will be delivered..). Healthcare over capacity...Around 50% of the population may not have money to get enough food for the duration of the lockdown...(DJ-Since both governments and farmers have an interest in food consumption there will be an answer possible-still some may break the lockdown..)

 -Dr.J.C. did get an email from Karley (? is that her name ? ) the Oregon front-line nurse. She did get her second vaccination. Still will stick to NPI-PPE use, social distance, handhygene etc...

DJ-There is discussion on NOT giving a second vaccination (in time) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream does this increase risks for virus "evasion" of immunity, or new variants ? 

DJ-My impression is Dr.J.C. "needed" good news-and that is only human. Some countries are already in the "variant-tsunami" (UK, Ireland, Israel)-others soon will be..(including most of Europe, US, Canada...). It will "get ugly"...but after that maybe some better perspectives...

Music; Academy of Ancient Music/VOCES8 Bach [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7Wt02gTwg8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7Wt02gTwg8 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2021 at 9:18pm

DJ,

-When you get a bit of an overall picture of where we are now-that is what I try to create via scenario's-I can imagine "some panic and horror"...The point of being on this forum is try to get over these emotions and think !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/904138-mmwr-emergence-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-7-lineage-%E2%80%94-united-states-dec-29-2020%E2%80%93jan-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/904138-mmwr-emergence-of-sars-cov-2-b-1-1-7-lineage-%E2%80%94-united-states-dec-29-2020%E2%80%93jan-12-2021 

DJ-Yes there are "new variants" as expected-not a surprise. Yes-these variants are more adepted for transmission in humans-again-they are believed to come from bats-humans are a "new host" also not very surprising...

Is there a problem ? Yes-and it is a big one ! Unless another variant will show up even spreading faster the UK variant of this corona-virus will become dominant in march in many places. To stop that-or at least slow it down-there are lots of things you can do !

-Stick to the rules ! Not-in the first place-because they are the law, or out of respect for the "experts" but because these rules make sense !!!

-Virusses are not tiny little birds flying around, they need transport. If "we are not moving" they can not find new hosts-so less mobility helps !

-They need hosts so they can get into the cells to start reproduction. Social distancing does not provide them with these new hosts !

-Ventilation can keep the number of virusparticles in a room low-the lower the viralload the less severe the illness !

-Masks help !!! Better masks help better !!!! The easiest way a virus can get into your body is via your mouth and nose-so cover them ! And yes-around 60% of the virus spread is from people (still) without symptoms-so a mask can also limit the virus you may be spreading if you are infected. 

-Inform yourself. Good enough most people infected do NOT end up in hospital or die !!! For a lot of people this SARS-2 turns out to be "a bad flu", some are even more lucky and get no, or mild symptoms...Still SARS-2=NOT a FLU !!! It is a new virus that means it can infect most of humans and may jump to other species. We are over 2 million deaths by now-a "normal" flu year may see 0,5 million deaths worldwide...

-If you can try avoid getting infected. The virus can cause inflamations all over the body, have long term healthissues-you do NOT want to get it !

-The problem with this coronavirus-as a new virus-is also in the numbers...hospitals/ICU's have a limited capacity. Some countries went for a "herd-immunity" scenario (totally insane-but most western countries did go for that road..) If 5% of the total population of a country needs hospitalcare within a year there is no room, no capacity, for that...!

-Respect HCW-ers, law enforcement, people working in shops/supermarkets-they run an increased risk FOR YOU !!!

-THINK !!!! Do NOT panic !!!! Panic is the last thing we need right now...We are in the middle of an unfriendly enviroment and have to try to survive...get to know your enviroment, observe...communicate... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2021 at 10:02pm

DJ

I believe the best way to avoid panic is honest information-even if that info in itself is terible...When you are in the middle of a wildfire it may be to late to act. When you see the fire coming there are things you can do to increase your chances of survival...

-Are there major problems ? Yes...approved vaccines are running out. In Europe some countries are switching to Russian and Chinese vaccines that are available...both the FDA and EMA  are not able to move fast enough to approve vaccines...

But there may be some "good" reasons for that;

-1 A weak point in a lot of vaccines is that you need TWO vaccinations with a three/four (maximum 12) week gap between them to get 100% immunity. During that gap you may get the virus. There are signs [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus/page30?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus/page30?view=stream that during that gap vaccinated people still get infected (but less-and often with less severe outcome-as expected) but the first vaccination may already influence (mutate ?) the virus...

-2 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/904167-new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/904167-new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines ; When the number of COVID-19 cases began to rise again in Manaus, Brazil, in December 2020, Nuno Faria was stunned. The virologist at Imperial College London and associate professor at the University of Oxford had just co-authored a paper in Science estimating that three-quarters of the city’s inhabitants had already been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the pandemic coronavirus—more than enough, it seemed, for herd immunity to develop. The virus should be done with Manaus. Yet hospitals were filling up again. “It was hard to reconcile these two things,” Faria says. He started to hunt for samples he could sequence to find out whether changes in the virus could explain the resurgence.

On 12 January, Faria and his colleagues posted their initial conclusions on the website virological.org. Thirteen of 31 samples collected in mid-December in Manaus turned out to be part of a new viral lineage they called P.1. Much more research is needed, but they say one possibility is that in some people, P.1 eludes the human immune response triggered by the lineage that ravaged the city earlier in 2020...

DJ In Brasil people that were infected by the older variant of Covid19/SARS-2 did get infected with the new Brazilian variant. Since the SA variant has even more mutations-though in many ways the Brasil-variant may have come from the SA variant-present vaccines and "natural" immunity "may not offer well enough protection"...

-3 DJ-I am NOT an expert, NOT a doctor-but mutations may mean some segments get deleted-are gone. This can make the virus lighter, spread further, keep it in the air longer, make masks less effective. [url]https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-face-mask-face-shield-ffp2-n95-kn95-whats-the-difference/a-52291265[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-face-mask-face-shield-ffp2-n95-kn95-whats-the-difference/a-52291265 A smaller virus may infect more people-be part of the story why these new variant-virus spread faster. 

So-YES-there are major problems...! The solutions are also there...we can change the vaccines able to deal with the new variants. Most likely that proces is already on its way. It will also increase production capacity..Better masks, more distance, NO social contacts (inside your house/safe place) also help. 

I do not like "good news stories" based on ignoring the facts...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ these numbers are "not good". In the coming months the numbers may get (far) worse...

DJ-We may have to face over 1 million infections per day later on this month, tens of thousend dead per day...News of hospitals running out of capacity may make people take the situation more serious. 

It may even make some politicians stop most of (air)travel...We have seen pandemics in the past and should have learned from them. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2021 at 10:44pm

DJ

-Another look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.. In the new cases list Brazil is at #2-with very high-over 68,000-number of new cases. The UK has-at #3-over 55,000 new cases...both high numbers are linked to new variants spreading. The sad news for the UK is they already have had a strict lockdown-in most regions for over a month. Still such high numbers. 

South Africa has almost 15,000 new cases...at #12. In "new deaths" UK at #2, Brazil at #3, Germany at #4...also here in NL several reports of the UK variant showing up. South Africa at #6. 

The total global numbers not yet record breaking. Here in NL "people are getting tired of testing" but also-for now, number of positive tests are going down. For now the lock down has some effect. They are planning (much) stricter rules (DJ-Still airports are open, there is a lot of global traffic-spreading the virus...that is unacceptable!)

China reported 130 new cases-yesterday they had 144, the day before 138...with some luck (and clear policy) they can get this under control. 

-Dr John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQJ1kUiXlYU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQJ1kUiXlYU ;

DJ-"Follow the evidence"is a nice idea-but by the time there is evidence there is a problem...I believe in simple. In summer do not leave flammable goods outside-you do not have to see a wildfire yet-just use common sense. Precaution, prevention can avoid "getting evidence". I do not "want proof of a pandemic" since I do not want this pandemic !

-Karly-the Oregon/US nurse did get here second (pfizer) vaccination yesterday. In the night she had a headache, some sleeping problems. This morning still some pain in the (injected) arm-but for the rest feeling much better and safer..She did take a few days of from work because this vaccine does have a bigger impact then a flu-shot. 

(DJ-In Norway over ten old vulnarable people died after vaccination. Not every type of vaccination may be suitable for all kinds of people. They will rethink their vaccination strategy. For some people it may be wiser to get the people around them vaccinated-and keep the most vulnarable a bit more isolated from infection risks..)

-Virusses love sport-events ! Yes, the Australian Open, UK football, Japan Olympics are a great way to worsen the pandemic ! A great way to create more variants ! And yes-if your country is not suffering enough-start another global sportsevent in your country to make things worse...(DJ-politics....        )

DJ-I admit I have some prejudice against "sports"..brains and sports do not mix. I know it is incorrect-there are more then enough intelligent people in sports but why do sportsevents go on during a pandemic ? 

-Brazil, Dr.J.C. plays a social media clip (also used by the BBC). DJ-Dr.J.C. misses/ignores some facts...;

  1-In Manaus/Amazone region massive RE-INFECTIONS !!! People often did have the older variant in spring 2020. The new variant does not seem to care, there is no immunity against this new variant.

  2-NO !!! The brazil variants has had TWO mutations at the receptor binding domain(RBD)-the  viral connection point to human cells. The UK variant has had "just"one. So the Brazil and UK variants are "not the same thing". The SA variant even had THREE mutations at the RBD...there are very serious concerns because if people get reinfected at a large scale from the Brazil and SA variants we need to "update"the vaccines...

and 3-Manaus is very remote in the jungle-lots of traffic via the rivers. Oxygen has to come in (limited) via air, most by boat. Via roads it may take days...

-UK stopped (direct) airlinks with South America, Southern Africa and Portugal "claiming it has some use in stopping the variant". DJ-It is to late for that...the SA variant is in many places already-with three major mutations that one is worse the the Brazilian one. Indirect links are still open. It is very likely the Brazil-variant is spreading in Latin America and-by now- very likely to be in the US. So if you want to keep variants out stop airtravel ALL airtravel !

-Dr.J.C. pro-activity is needed, governments keep running behind the facts. Dr.J.C. is "optimistic on the vaccines" since it is supposed to deal with the virus at several segments. (DJ-Also in the variants less then 0,1% change from the "older variant"-in theory it should protect. Dr.J.C. is correct virusses get less virulent over time-but we may not have seen the worst of this virus yet..)

-China did send over 20,000 people from rural parts to quarantine locations. Over 20 million people in strict lockdown. In the past that strategy worked (DJ-But it will be a challange to deal with new variants...Chinese New Year is coming-to stop spread travel restrictions are very tight..)

-UK variant may have been in Italy already in august (DJ-history most likely will go further back. There were some reports from Brazil going back to april 2020...Using the "tree-model" one can imagine there were some mutations early-some extra mutations made it more easy to spread..so several steps. But "we do not blame the Spanish for "Spanish Flu" it is a name-goes also for variants getting country-names..)

-UK cases yesterday were over 55,000-so Dr.J.C. may be a bit to optimistic on UK numbers staying around 45,000 per day as the previous days had...(may be related to testing/reporting. Healthcare may put some priority in treating not in testing ?)

-US cases increase 4,4% in one week. Hospitalcare overstretched (Dr.J.C. one nurse on FOUR icu patients is an impossible job). DJ-Worldometer has 24 million US cases out of a global total of 94 million cases. US has over 400.000 deaths, 20% of the global-just over 2 million deaths..the US has 4% of the global population. One reason why US numbers are this high is US is doing a lot of testing, another reason for high US numbers is lack of any national strategy...

-Dr.J.C. does not mention the two (supposed) US variants, he is worried of other variants spreading/mixing in the US (DJ-Lets be real-with the amount of travel and variants being around in december-variants are very likely to be spreading in the US. I did not see any news on the "US variants" but I would not be surprised it could be already known variants imported into the US..)

-Vaccinations still slow (DJ-Even far from perfect people may be better off with some protection-vaccinated-then without. It seems to protect against the UK variant. Protection against the Brazil and SA variant is still unclear. There can be other-local-reasons why SA and Brazil regions have such high numbers of (re ???)-infections...So get vaccinated if you can !

-Indonesia; Jawa/Java is one of the most densely populated islands in the world. outdoor masks mandatory. Chinese vaccines and AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccines-programs are getting started this month. DJ Indonesia has a population of over 275 million-so most likely the around 100 million people on Jawa/Java will get vaccinated earlier...In Indonesia vaccinating those that spread the virus get vaccinated most early (others then Europe/US-where most vulnarable get vaccinated).

-Germany-high number of cases; Dr.J.C. UK variant spreading. Portugal may have Brazil variant-strict lockdown. Hungary may go for Chinese vaccins...

DJ The outlook is bad..there will be hard months coming-but most likely better days to follow this year...

Music-to get away for some minutes...spot the stars Rolling Stones-Sympathie for the devil [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwtyn-L-2gQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jwtyn-L-2gQ 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 6:17am

While pandemic news makes the headlines-there is still other news;

[url]https://southfront.org/israel-united-states-unite-efforts/[/url] or https://southfront.org/israel-united-states-unite-efforts/  ;

The first two weeks of 2021 have, so far, been marked by an incredible increase in Israeli activity in the skies over Syria.

The most intense strike took place on January 13 morning hitting multiple Syrian and Iranian-affiliated targets in the province of Deir Ezzor, including the underground base of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Corps near al-Bukamal.

The pro-opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that Israeli strikes have killed 57 and wounded another 37. Pro-government sources confirmed only 5 casualties.

The airstrikes were so numerous that even Abu Yatem al-Katrani – the commander of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) 4th Brigade was killed in an airstrike.

The Israeli operations were carried out with the assistance of the United States – it provided intelligence and Israeli struck on them. Former CIA Director, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was reportedly discussing the airstrikes with Yossi Cohen, chief of Israel’s spy agency Mossad.

The US support of Tel Aviv’s aerial raids is a clear message to Iran, and is a very open support to Israel’s undeclared war against Iran, which it has been waging in Syria since hostilities began.

DJ-It of course is also a message to Russia, China...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-hottest-year-on-record.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/01/2020-hottest-year-on-record.html ; DJ There is a link with pandemics. Wildlife is being pushed out of its habitat, natural balances are getting more and more out of balance...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 10:47pm

DJ

-Another look at numbers [url]https://sputniknews.com/world/202101161081789867-chinese-scientists-military-warn-coronavirus-death-toll-could-more-than-double-by-march/[/url] or https://sputniknews.com/world/202101161081789867-chinese-scientists-military-warn-coronavirus-death-toll-could-more-than-double-by-march/ and [url]https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3117784/coronavirus-death-toll-could-hit-5-million-march-chinese[/url] or https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3117784/coronavirus-death-toll-could-hit-5-million-march-chinese ;

By the beginning of March, the death toll from Covid-19 could rise to 5 million – from just under 2 million on Thursday – according to figures calculated by a team from China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), People’s Liberation Army and public health research institutes.

-

More than 92 million cases have been reported around the world, but that number could rise to 170 million in early March, with the United States likely to be the worst hit, according to Xu’s estimate.


In the worst case, the number of US cases could hit 32 million, or about 20 per cent of the world total. India, Brazil and Russia would be the next worst hit, with 15.5, 15 and 6 million cases respectively.

Even in the best scenario – with governments implementing effective measures, people obeying rules such as social distancing and wearing masks, and massive vaccination programmes taking effect – the study said a further 300,000 people would die from Covid-19 by early March.


To achieve the best scenario the US would have to keep its cases at about 26 million, or no more than 3 million new infections in the intervening weeks, the study said. The US reported more than 1.7 million cases last week alone.

A researcher at the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai who is investigating the coronavirus but was not involved in the study, said that if 5 million people died by March, it could lead to the collapse of the global health care system.


“People die en masse when they cannot get even the most basic care in hospitals,” said the person, who asked not to be named.

The current global fatality rate of Covid-19 is 2.1 per cent, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University in the US. A rise in the death toll to 5 million would represent a death rate of 3 per cent, which was about the level in  when hospitals were overwhelmed by the then new disease.



DJ-From Sputnik;

The virus’ continuing mutation is another major problem, according to Xu and his colleagues, with researchers saying it could become a permanent seasonal phenomenon if it adapts to hide effectively in the human body. With this in mind, the researchers suggested that even China’s comparatively successful strategy of strict, pinpoint containment may prove ineffective.

At the same time, the researchers warned Chinese authorities against launching mass vaccination campaigns in areas with few or no cases, saying the disease’s ongoing mutation could see mutated strains "cheat" the human immune system and spread more easily, worsening complications.

The researchers published their findings in Disease Surveillance, a Chinese peer-reviewed journal.

So to name some problems; mutations, number of cases above capacity, lack of will to follow rules...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 11:13pm

DJ

A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ new cases list may give some insight on variant-spread. Many countries now have already lockdowns/NPI wich in earlier phases did reduce new cases. That does not seem to work that good any longer. UK in top 3 for both new cases and deaths, Brazil at #2 for cases,#4 for deaths...

Looking at the numbers Mexico is over represented. How many variant cases are there in Mexico-what kind of variants are that ? South Africa has a smaller population, less testing-still high numbers...

Russia and Germany have been in the top 10 region-due to their larger population but also show increase of cases. 

In NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/16/dutch-government-will-keep-schools-closed-past-jan-25-report[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/01/16/dutch-government-will-keep-schools-closed-past-jan-25-report ; About 200 people in the Netherlands are known carriers of the B117 mutation, a spokesperson for the RIVM told newspaper AD, up from under 100 earlier in the week. 

DJ-Most of the found cases did NOT have any travel-link with the UK !!! Also other countries report increases of the UK variant-and in much lower numbers the SA variant. The only reason why the UK variant may not become dominant in the America's, Europe, Asia is "another variant" manages to spread even faster...It is good governments go for much stricter rules-they better look at what the UK, Ireland, Israel has seen and are (not) doing...

By the way: Worldometers report numbers from midnight in the UK to midnight in the UK. Their definition of countries may differ from that used by others. They include overseas parts of the US in the US numbers..etc. If you would work on other defenitions you get other results-but the trends are the same. "Record number of cases" may depend on what time you use.

Dr.John Campbell with another update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48FqFqd0MvI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=48FqFqd0MvI ;

-A study on using bloodplasma from people who revored from Covid19-full of anti bodies-in patients still fighting the infection in hospital did not find any difference between those who did get the plasma and those who did not. They looked at over 10,000 patients-also looked for "sub-groups" but statisticians could not see any difference/benefits...Subgroups could be obesity, gender, racial, age-but "the big data" did not find anything. (DJ-Statistics has to be used in dealing with a pandemic. Working on models for lockdowns statistic models are the basics....closing schools bring down the R0 with 0,1, a curfew may add 0,1-closing pubs, restaurants, cinema's also reduces the R0. So if the UK variant has a R0 0,4/0,7 higher to get the same effect from earlier lockdowns what further steps to take...no visitors in your house, closing supermarkets, stay at home-orders etc...are all tools based on statistics..)

-Dr.J.C. takes a moment to think about the 1873 patients that died during this study. They did not know (double blind) if they were getting anti body plasma or not. May have lived if the blood plasma approach had worked...Dr.J.C.was hopefull about the antibody-plasma theory. The study followed patients 28 days-before making a report-but will keep an eye on later developments-maybe something statistical significant could come out later on (DJ like less long-covid in one group or so..)

-Dr.J.C. believes this UK study was the largest on anti-body blood plasma. The findings mean other countries do not need to this kind of studies any longer...DJ-He is touching a major problem. One would expect science to follow international studies. But since getting funding for studies may take some time, "tunnelvision" several countries will go on with their studies and most likely get the same results as the UK study. No doubt even new studies will start repeating what already has been done...

-UK recovery studies looked at how good treatments work. They tried a lot HCQ showed NO benifit, Dexamethasone did show benefit. (DJ-Of course they do not at random use all kind of drugs-they make a science-based assesment of what may, or may not be helping..) DJ-Since PP is that positive over Ivermectin did [url]https://www.recoverytrial.net/news[/url] or https://www.recoverytrial.net/news try that ?  (Did not see it on the site..) Why they are studying Asperin now ? I would have expected things like Asperin, Paracetemol, Iboprofen-most used easy to get medication would be top of the list...

-Dr.J.C. ends with people getting vaccinated all over the globe. DJ-India is starting a vaccine program vaccinating 300 million people in several months-may be one of the largest vaccination programs ever..Dr.J.C. also mentions his mother did get vaccinated.."she is even older then him  !" (I would not expect anything else..)

DJ-There have been reports of 13 people dying after vaccination in Norway, 10 in Germany...vaccination is NOT risk-free. As everything in life it is balancing. What are the risks of a vaccine against what is the risk of NOT getting the vaccine...Vaccines most likely are far from perfect. They may be less effective against some variants. But news about large scale reinfections is "relative" natural immunity may not be good enough after several months to defend against new variants...

Dr.J.C. is right in stating these new variants mean keeping a social distance of 1,5 or 2 meters/6 feet may not be enough. Certainly indoors if you can take much more distance...If you have to go to a supermarket-can not get groceries delivered-go on a quiet moment to a quiet supermarket. I prefer smaller supermarkets so I can be outside faster...and of course-masks-as part of a larger strategy-do help !

-WAR

[url]https://southfront.org/in-video-expansion-of-chinas-high-speed-rail-network-2003-2020/[/url] or https://southfront.org/in-video-expansion-of-chinas-high-speed-rail-network-2003-2020/ DJ-trump is in his last days as US president...he may leave Biden with a horrible legacy in the US with an out of control pandemic, a divided states. Will trump also start a major war-to damage Biden ? 

In Germany (Russian speaking) Angela Merkel will step down in september. The EU is led by Germany and France-now the UK is out of the EU-will RIC become ERIC ? (Europe/EU-Russia-Iran-China). With the Biden gevernment putting "f..k the EU" victoria N(uland) in a high position we may find out how big the gap between Europe/EU and the US did get. DJ-It is simply incorrect to blame trump for the long term damage showing up, trump is a symptom-not the disease !

Music-over half a century old [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcTrsP_ny6o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcTrsP_ny6o The Seekers - Isa Lei, another world...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 1 hour 27 minutes ago at 10:22pm

DJ,

Part of my "pandemic breakfast"is "eating info"...To start positive; 

-Around the globe in many places all kind of vaccinations have started. Far from perfect, some vaccines my be to risky for vulnarable elderly, some variants may be able-in part-to evade the vaccines-but the number of people vaccinated worldwide must be above ten million by now...in combination with "natural immunity" (after (recent) infection) this could slow down the pandemic...

-Also mass media, politics, slowly take the pandemic news more serious. Still slow in translating it in effective restrictions/rules-my impression is the general public may "start getting the message" (even if they do not like the message...due to poor communications still a lot of younger people believe they run no/small risks-while they slowly are becoming the motor in virus spread...)

-We do seem to get a better idea on effective treatments...knowing what does NOT work is also a step forward...(blood plasma with anti bodies from recovered patients does NOT show any effect...that strategy can stop.)

The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for sunday january 17;

-Weekend numbers are always lower then average-in most new cases the UK and B (Brazil) variant show up, SA/South Africa-with less testing is at #10 in new cases #9 in new deaths...DJ-There is some discussion on how much more infectious the "new" variants are-what part of the high numbers can be related to christmas/new year extra spread. DJ-In the first week of this year (according the NL OMT=Outbreak Management Team numbers) in NL the UK-variant was 10% of all new cases. In testing of over 1800 samples also 3 SA variants were detected. (DJ-With historical links to Surinam, also travel to Dutch Antilles the B-(Brazil) variant most likely has to be in NL).

-When you look at "cases per million" the US is at #7. "The only other real country" doing worse is Czechia at #4 (the other "countries have a population below 1 million-Czechia has 10 million+). In the US 7,4% of the population (once) tested positive (73,726 on 1,000,000=7,4%).

-In the "deaths-per-million" list Belgium has 1756 dpm (but they include ALL people who died after testing positive-a very wide definition of "case"), Italy 1360 dpm, Czechia 1338 dpm, UK 1311, USA 1226, Sweden 1019, Switzerland 999, Brazil 984 (with very limited testing), NL 758. 

-DJ-The "political factor" is not only a US,UK problem-in Brazil Sao Paula may have much more testing. The vaccination (with SinoVac and AstraZeneca) for now only is in Sao Paulo. The "SP" governor is running against Bolsenaro. On "SP"; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%A3o_Paulo_(state)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C3%A3o_Paulo_(state) ;

São Paulo (Portuguese pronunciation: [sɐ̃w̃ ˈpawlu] (About this soundlisten)) is one of the 26 states of the Federative Republic of Brazil and is named after Saint Paul of Tarsus. A major industrial complex, the state has 21.9% of the Brazilian population and is responsible for 33.9%[6] of Brazil's GDP. São Paulo also has the second-highest Human Development Index (HDI) and GDP per capita, the fourth-lowest infant mortality rate, the third-highest life expectancy, and the third-lowest rate of illiteracy among the federative units of Brazil. São Paulo alone has a bigger economy than ArgentinaUruguayParaguay, and Bolivia combined.[7] São Paulo is also the world's twenty-eighth-most populous sub-national entity and the most populous sub-national entity in the Americas.

With more than 46 million inhabitants in 2019, São Paulo is the most populous Brazilian state, the most populous national subdivision in the Americas,[1] and the third most populous political unit of South America, surpassed only by the rest of the Brazilian Federation and Colombia. The local population is one of the most diverse in the country and descended mostly from Italians, who began immigrating to the country in the late 19th century;[8] of the Portuguese, who colonized Brazil and installed the first European settlements in the region; indigenous peoples, many distinct ethnic groupsAfricans, who were brought from Africa as slaves in the colonial era and migrants from other regions of the country. In addition, ArabsGermansSpanishJapaneseChinese, and Greeks also are present in the ethnic composition of the local population.


-Dr. John Campbell; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GQfPgaE4sA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GQfPgaE4sA

 -In the US it looks like numbers-for now-could be decreasing, stabilizing-but Dr.J.C.; The US may be at a position where the UK was end of november-bofore new UK variant did "explode cases"...DJ-For that matter a Biden presidency, 100 million vaccinations in 100 days is more then welcome-you need a NATIONAL strategy-with lockdowns etc to deal with the new (and coming) variants..Biden will use national war-time laws to take fedral control over production (I gues of vaccines, testing, PPE, medical gear etc.) I think he has made dealing with this pandemic (national AND international) priority #1 (As it should be...)

 -Dr.J.C. has trouble finding good US data, one of his sources (The Atlantic) still had cases increasing, the CDC has other numbers-DJ-for the US there are a few other things to consider-the time zone you use makes a difference and also the definition of what is the US-is it including US Virgin Islands, Samoa etc. or not ? Does it include US military bases (in and outside the US) ? 

DJ-I choose worldometers because it is simple and can give a lot of worldwide info. It has been around for "decades"for population statistics...but it is "far from perfect" (DJ-One improvement could be monthly global trends...on the other hand that would make using it extra complicated.) [url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend[/url] or https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend for more info (does not reflect full impact of variants).

 -In the US over 10 million people first vaccination, over 10 million second vaccination. "That train is moving" and will have an impact (DJ-reality check-it will also have an impact on how the virusses develop. Some variants may evade vaccinations (in some subgroups...DJ-False optimism undermines support for needed action. I did already again see "summer will bring numbers down"-we have heard that last year...)

 -UK, Patients being spread all over the country. At this moment over 750,000 people infected but the R0, new cases trend is going down, Still a lot of the high number of cases will need hospital care, (13 days gap between first symptoms and hospital admission. Since there is a 30 days gap between first symptoms and (a small group) dying the number of deaths will remain high till mid february...

DJ-One of the mistakes-as a red line in this pandemic-has been reopening to soon. "Saving the economy may destroy that economy !!!". Due to economic pressure, pandemic fatigue and "political need for positive action" we keep repeating this mistake-I expect that mistake again in february/march...

 -DJ-Dr.J.C. is using data showing cases going down last week. In my opinion "going for evidence" the way he does is "selective". We are now in a phase-two of this pandemic with number of variants most likely to escalate. The ONLY way to get a grip on that (and I am NOT an expert) is a long term strategy. Make plans for dealing with this pandemic for ALL of 2021, not just a few weeks forward. You need to get the R0 at 0, ZERO !!! Not "just under 1"!!!!

It is good to see the UK manages to most likely maneuver itself out of the UK variant-other countries should learn from that (DJ...and there is a problem...) But the SA and B variants are spreading, other variants N (Nigeria) US 1 and 2, M (Malaysia) A (Argentina) may become a risk...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 (gets updated now more times per day..)

 -Vaccination in the UK going up-at the end of June all 18+ citizens can be vaccinated in the UK (with at least one vaccination. DJ Some new vaccinations Johnson&Johnson/Janssen Pharma/Leiden NL-need just one vaccine.) Within 30/40 days pharma industry can produce vaccines to deal with new variants...(DJ-But there can get a problem with a mix of variants-creating variants even further away from the "original"...We still need NPI to keep the R0<1 get the R0 to ZERO !!!)

 -Dr.J.C. mentions new production facilities opening faster to get much more vaccines faster. Not "just" for this pandemic but also to deal with "the next one...". We may be lucky with this virus-other virusses can spread much faster and kill much more people. Both because of the damage the virus does as well as the number of cases...DJ-It is good to have "new fire trucks" it is better to have no fires...we need better surveilance to detect possibly pandemic virusses as soon as we can to prevent any "next pandemic". We can not ignore healthcare in "poor countries" because in that way "we are creating the next pandemic due to ignorance..."!!!)

 -DJ-On vaccines-it is good to see UK government investing in non-profit vaccine production capacity. But can we please evaluate mRNA vaccines ? First of all for their costs/profit-during a pandemic totally unacceptable !!! But also due to practical use (-70C is not practical) and safety for some sub groups (the most vulnarable need protection. IF vaccination with the Pfizer vaccine already killed over 100 older people it may not be safe enough !

 -


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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