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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 10:18pm
DJ-Lack of time to go into much info. In the German bordertown close to the Netherlands new 3 cases-authorities warning for large outbreak in this region.

Peak Prosperity on Thailand being a go-between between China (even Wuhan) and the rest of the world. Also Iran may have already over 50.000 cases according to a model.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oKV5MK2bdw;

Within and without China, the coronavirus continues to rage on.

A leaked report claims that actual covid-19 cases within China are 52x higher than the 78K reported by authorities.

Whether true or not, that estimate comports with the massive heavy-handed response the government has been pursuing there.

Outside of China, more cases in more countries are being reported, especially in the EU. Since yesterday, new cases have been reported in Sweden, Greece, France, Spain, Germany, and, of course, Italy.

The virus appears as virulent as ever. Remember those photos of sick people collapsing on the street in China? Well, we're now seeing the same thing in South Korea and Iran.

Infections continue to grow at a non-linear (i.e., exponential) rate. New cases & death are *doubling* worldwide every 4-5 days(!).

Containment has failed. The coronavirus is spreading worldwide and it's prudent to assume it's headed near where you live at some point. Use the time you still have now to prepare.

Being well-stocked, well-trained and in a position to help others is your best defense at this point.

(DJ-Also from P.P. In 2019 almost 1 million US households faced bankruptcy over medical costs. In the EU and Canada we do not have those problems.
Trump is angry over wath "the caronavirus-reporting" is doing for stocks.
Notesting is no new cases in the US.)

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/france-confirms-2nd-death-outbreak-spreads-across-europe-virus-arrives-south-america

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ DJ-Must be getting close to impossible to get the numbers updated.

Current trends and analysis:

There are now more new cases occurring every day outside of China than within.
Worldwide, the number of newly recovered patients has been greater than the number of newly infected every day since Feb. 19 (for the past week).
The number of serious and critical cases, as well as of new deaths, is declining worldwide.
However, with a declining trend in China and a sharp increase in cases outside of China (where the outbreak is still in its initial stages), it is critical to analyze the two trends separately.
The questions we must address now are:
1) What factors determined the decline in China (and, most importantly, the limited spread of the virus outside of Hubei)?
2) Are these same factors (which seem to include very firm and quick actions being implemented at an unprecedented scale) present outside of China? If not, the outcome might turn out to be quite different, unless another course of action is undertaken immediately.
In depth analysis, reviewing the findings from WHO’s Bruce Aylward report after spending two weeks in China, to be published later today.

DJ-There is a relation between "summer temperatures" and spread of covid19. Summer may "save us" when it comes in time....
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2020 at 11:27pm
With trump now putting two economists besides pence to deal with the Corona-pandemic Peak Prosperity most likely will face censorship. "The best news is no news"-"no testing is no virus" etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kr1AkRtIHX4;

The situation with the coronavirus is quickly going from bad to worse.

Hundreds of cases breaking out across the world, dozens of new deaths.

And, of course, these are just the official numbers. Many countries have inadequate/non-existent testing procedures, so the true numbers may be quite a bit higher.

As covid-19 continues to rip through the EU, Iran and South Korea, the US has just announced its first case of "communal infection", meaning the virus may now be endemic here, as well.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
DJ-My impression is that it is getting harder to get data. Lots of bla-bla but no real numbers everywere...

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/japans-abe-closes-schools-nationwide-south-korea-confirms-505-new-cases-surpassing

DJ-For "scenario's" I only hope higher temperatures may slow down the virus and higher temperatures soon arrive.
I hope China will be able to produce antibiotics "for the world", other medication.

For China one can claim they were surprised by the first corona-cases in december. Iran is a "second world country" under US sanctions-so not the best medical gear.

The US itself seems to be leading "the west" in lies and dis-information. Again politics fail. People are better of using their own brain.

Expect the worst, hope for the best....

https://thebulletin.org/2020/02/trump-touts-biodefense-strategy-but-slashes-funding-to-detect-and-combat-outbreaks-like-coronavirus/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=ThursdayNewsletter02272020&utm_content=DisruptiveTechnology_TrumpSlashFunding_02252020
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2020 at 11:43pm
Peak Prosperity update with Thailand changing the name of covid19 into "viral pneumonia", Italy (not the first) not longer counting infected people with no further symptoms and the US simply not testing-so no new cases "it will disappear like a miracle-trump" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsJCiZTt3uc; The coronavirus is now reported in 59 countries. It's a global pandemic, even if the WHO still refuses to call it that. And speaking of the WHO, the CDC, and most of the governments around the world, they're still unwilling to urge folks to take advance preparation. In too many cases, the numbers and terminology are being 'fudged' in ways both obvious and insulting. It's getting maddening at this point. Not only is their lack of urgency putting lives at risk, it's increasing the chaos and panic that will ensue in areas overwhelmed by mass outbreaks when they occur. Even the stubborn financial markets have finally realized that covid-19 is a major problem and have been in violent meltdown. In fact, the past week has seen the fastest 10%+ loss in the S&P 500 in history. Folks, this is now a fast-spreading global crisis and it's crystal clear we can't rely on the authorities adequately protect or even forewarn us. When it comes to protection from the coronavirus, you're on your own. DJ-To be realistic-modern healthcare is hightech (and low incident)-pandemic needs high tech for the severe cases and maximum incident-even with the best mobilization of medical staff, facilities etc "the health care system will get overrun". PP also talks of the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic_severity_index we are in a cat 5 already. It would be wise to stop schools, mass gatherings etc for TWELVE (12) weeks as in the plans-but so far only China was doing that. The western countries seem to be following the US-CDC-in practice hope for warmer weather to do the job. Stupidity rules ! https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for the non-realistic statistics https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/serious-virus-hunter-who-discovered-ebola-discusses-worst-case-scenario-coronavirus DJ-With no serious travel restrictions, no stop on mass meetings, school closures, even not good training and gear for medical workers that have to deal with possibly infected people, no testing on a usefull scale Covid19 is out of control. The impact on global society will be very severe/collapse. What to expect from the governments/politicians etc ? They continu to live in another reality. They will come up with non-sense statistics. When you look at China the real test is will China be able to restart exports in the coming months (if there is a market left to export to). China did put up quarantine, isolation, most likely in a brutal scale at a certain moment. Did that work or are they (still) producing false statistics ?
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 11:28pm

Here on leap day 2020 (February 29th) the US records its first coronavirus death on the continent, a 50+ year-old man in Washington State.  Cases continue to grow exponentially in South Korea and Italy.  Meanwhile, most hospital systems in western countries are woefully unequipped for any large influx of serious respiratory patients. After dragging its feet for seeming forever, the CDC “allows” states to begin testing on their own.  Finally, and inexplicably.   Through all of this we’ve been consistently telling you that you need to prepare.  Now it’s more or less too late.  Already many communities are experiencing runs on basic items of food and water.  Any preparing you do from here on out needs to be done ultra-responsibly and without any hoarding. From here on out the words are going to be “mitigation” (not containment) and “non-pharmaceutical interventions” or NPIs.  That’s a fancy way of saying no large gatherings, no school, and no unnecessary travel or contact. But there’s still time to do a few things so continue do what you can.  

From Peak Prosperity-difficulties in posting

The Guardian article on Italy-virus around since half of january-is also interesting. I see more and more also female and young people getting infected and die-virus is mutating ?

Zero hedge had an article in wich the US, UK, Netherlands were the top 3 in being prepared for a pandemic. Peak Prosperity just reported UK only has 15 ECMO machines (from 30 last flu season), the US is simply not serious in testing. Also the Dutch are not doing very well-if they are supposed to be "the best" I am not very hopefull.

Moon of Alabama also had a story on covid19-comparing the way China and the US is dealing with the outbreak. 

I (DJ) expect further collapse of the financial markets in the coming week(s)-if that will crash the global financial system is a wait and see. Covid-19 cases are exploding-the only good news is that warmer weather is on its way-maybe that can slow down the virus.

Very likely health care systems at breaking point already in Italy, South Korea (and China) other countries will follow soon (US, UK, Germany, France etc)

China restarting production may explain rise in numbers of new cases. 

(I can not put links in this post-if I try the post is gone-so I use a trick to work around that in a second post)





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 29 2020 at 11:33pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2020 at 10:45pm

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/02/coronavirus-its-time-to-press-your-government-to-react-faster.html[/url]

DJ-No new update from Peak Prosperity today-the person behind PP needs a rest. 

MoA is asking why the US (and other "western" countries) are so limiting their testing. Also other actions to slow down the spread of the virus are not done by governments. In Paris-France-workers at the Louvre museum decided to close the museum. Some countries have-finally-decided to stop mass meetings with over 1000 visitors (Switzerland) 5000 visitors (France) but I (DJ) simply do not understand what governments are waiting for-a miracle ?

Here in the Netherlands some remarks; 1 Allthough not all info on age and gender is made publicof the 10 cases 8 are adult. If I am correct 5 of them are women, 3 men-looking at earlier data I would expect more men, less women. 2 Also the age is remarkable-average of the adults-with limited data-may indicate to be below 40. 3 Eventhough the first cases were related to travel to Northern Italy the newest cases are not-must come from internal spread. 4 There is also a story of a young (Dutch) mother and child-both with symptoms-recent travel to Italy-living just across the German border but with a Dutch GP and Dutch health insurance not being able to get tested in both Germany and the Netherlands. 

My impression is there is widespread underreporting, lack of testing. Euromomo-monitoring health issues in Europe via statistics-may soon be giving more information. 

I hoped warmer weather would stop the spread of the virus. Singapore-cases (a.o.) may indicate that hope is misplaced . So if something has to stop the virus it will be human action.

China cses going up, satellite data, indicate China's economy is not yet restarting. Bad news-the west needs some basics from China for her medication. Also bad news for global economy, banking. There are some indications that North Korea, Iran, may "break" under the virus (in both cases they may ask China, Russia for help)-but a long lasting majr pandemic can do a whole lot of damage to a lot of countries. 

The worst case scenario-The-End-Of-The-World-As-We-Know-It TEOTWAWKI but I hope for better outcomes. There is no use in speculating on what that will look like. 

(I hope to be able to put links in my story again soon)


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 02 2020 at 10:19pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNQB-Q67DpE[/url] Peak Prosperity;


As new cases explode all over the globe, with 5 new countries reporting their first cases, health authorities continue to give out puzzlingly incomplete, contradictory and sometimes even wrong information. While our view on Thailand is provisionally shifted back to “contained” our view is that Egypt is the next unannounced hotspot. Given where we are in the story, we’re going to have to perform triage, meaning making tough choices over where to apply woefully inadequate resources. Our analysis concludes that even though there are numerous exciting vaccine candidates en route, we cannot expect them to arrive any time soon.  A vaccine is 6 – 18 months out (best case) which means that the Honey Badger virus will not be stopped before it makes a spring peak.  With luck, we’ll have a vaccine in place before the fall/winter resumption of the illness (presuming it operates like a normal flu virus, which may not be the right way to look at it.  We just don’t know). Please, use every day to improve your circumstances. 

DJ-PP informs about the bad info health authorities are at present spreading in the US, Germany, Netherlands on incubation period, (no need for) testing when you have not been to South Korea, China, Northern Italy


In local news-but most likely a global problem; German health authorities not sharing info with their Dutch partners-lack of time, difference in procedures.

Also in the Netherlands things are moving that fast;

-Dutch CDC (RIVM) will start giving daily updates-with all the new cases not mention every new case seperate.

-Dutch GP's are overrun have a hard time in normal circumstances find at present their job as good as impossible already

-Nijmegen University Hospital is not accepting Dutch CDC rules will try to test all with possible Covid-19 (not only those with recent travel history)

-In workplaces, schools etc. more and more they make their own plans (since the RIVM rules are that stupid-what is the point of closing a school when everybody already has Covid19 ?)


Hal Turner (behind paywall) is already claiming shortages in some medication. 

The official statistics reflect reality but the numbers are way to low. 

DJ-Increase in exports will tell more about the situation in China than their numbers.  The US will see a sharp increase in cases when they finally start testing. The outcome of all this mismanagement will cause much more problems and suffering.

People will die of: 1-Covid 19, 2-Flu, other medical conditions that would be treated if there was not a Covid19 outbreak, 3-lack of medication 4-social unrest/chaos 5 possibly starvation, lack of water etc.

The only good thing PP had to give is that in warmer temperatures Covid19 may be less active-for now-but maybe that idea is based on bad statistics. MERS did very well in higher temperatures. Egypt, Nigeria, Australia may give an indication.


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 10 2020 at 11:51pm

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K0HYh6zjTUo[/url] "

Our Authorities' Poor Response To The Coronavirus Is Just Making Things Worse

DJ- Peak Prosperity/ Chris Martenson describing the total mess "western" countries are making of this pandemic. In Europe at least there is the certainty for most of an income when they can not work, medical costs can get covered by insurance. At least some borders are closed. 

Here in the Netherlands lots of hospitals already get their staff infected in the beginning of a very major health crisis by doing a very bad job in testing. At least in one "provence/region" Noord Brabant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Brabant[/url] with 40% of the Dutch cases larger gatherings are stopped. Still testing is a hard thing to get done, the Dutch CDC-RIVM- stops testing when one familymember has tested positive-the rest of that family will not get tested. (And when they do not have symptoms are supposed to go to their job, school etc.....) 

The US seems to be not testing at all on a relevant scale-what I (DJ) do get to expect is that in the US most likely the real number of Covid19 cases must be in the many thousends if not millions-but no testing, no income when you get sick....with open borders, airroutes all over the globe... (and government help for the poor billionaires who lost some of their value in stocks). 

Public healthcare, public housing, social security were products of the 19th century for a reason. To keep a society working you have to have a bases. You can not let get someone sick, homeless, spreading diseases... both in the US and Europe a lot of politicians seem to have forgotten that lesson....

So we are now in the worst case scenario possible. "Economic recession" may be just one of many results. Dutch banks like ING, ABN AMRO are 72% in oil/energy, Deutsche Bank (Germany) was already close to bankruptcy (just like Italy) a financial crisis is on its way.

The US is even doing worse with its [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale_oil[/url] only making profit with high energy prices. No flights, travels, transport, shipping is no need for that expensive (credit based) oil. 

Hospitals overrun is medical infrastructure crashing. When also the financial system is crashing countries will collapse. 

When I look at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] Russia did manage the damage to a minimum. (And with hardly any tourism in winter, closing the border with China in time, strict border control etc the Russian numbers may be realistic.) China did get hit by surprise-still is not back on its feet-but has a lot of reserves. The outcome of the global corona-crisis-we are just at the beginning-may be Russia-China dominance. 

Here in Europe we may be able to "limit the damage", I think the US may be facing a much worse outcome. 

In Europe already lots of people now start working from home, eventhough government is running behind the facts. (Air)Travel is not very common as is in the US, already some borders are closed. The US is not likely to close borders between US states. The US political system (with two very old men in a "pseudo election campain") is even more bankrupt than the European one. 

On the stock markets-the lowest point any index can go is "0". It will not sink to that point-it may "just stop".....






We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 4:06am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

On the stock markets-the lowest point any index can go is "0". It will not sink to that point-it may "just stop".....


Are you sure?   Once I thought that interest rates could not go negative - how wrong was I ???


Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this, I enjoy reading them but don't have much time to respond.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hazelpad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 4:59am

I enjoy reading them too.

Hz x

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 7:24am

EdwinSM (still in Finland ?) Hazelpad, thank youfor your reactions. Sometimes I'm wondering why I do net get much reactions, is my English that bad ? Am I scaring people from reacting ? 

Of course I hope "better weather" will slow down the virus. Looking at the statistics and reactions the real number of cases worldwide has to be in the millions. [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/[/url] only has statistics (on EUROpean MOrtality MOnitoring) till week 9. A realistic number of "damage" is only possible (long) after this Corona-crisis. 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/is-the-coronavirus-really-more-dangerous-than-the-flu.html[/url];

Today's market crash and Trump's ignorant and disastrous handling of the pandemic make it now less likely that he will get reelected. The pandemic also guarantees that demanding medicare for all will become a huge winner.

DJ-Lets hope this crisis will bring also at least some good changes. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/merkel-expects-60-70-germans-be-infected-coronavirus[/url],

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-coronavirus-cases-pass-1000-national-guard-arrives-new-york-washington-bans-large[/url]

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fool-me-once-no-drop-pop-not-q4-2018-replay[/url];

But I want to add some nuance to all this and that is to state clearly: This is not anything like the Q4 2018 correction. It’s worse, much worse and it’s left utter destruction in its wake and I want to highlight some of this so everyone can get get an appreciation for what just happened and why we may not expect a magic recovery similar following December 2018.

-

Anybody that has bought stocks in the past year has been taken to the cleaners. ETFs, pension funds, institutions, hedge funds, buybacks, retail, you name it.

-

DJ-There were some claims the bankingcrisis of 2008 was "solved" by criminal money-billions of it. Others claim central banks kicked the can down the road since 2008 by "quatative easing" etc-just creating money out of nowhere. I think one can find proof for both claims. 

1-Financial global imbalance only did get further unbalanced. The "1 procent" now claim to own more than halve of the planet while the 50% poorest are more poor than ever (in percentasge-to be realistic hunger did decrease etc. there is some global progress)

2-Central banks created that much money to buy stocks to "create the illusion"of everything going well. Interestrates give a more realistic view. Negative interest rates indicate a lack of willingness to invest. In the mean time "the rich" only got more rich at the cost of the taxpayer. Global imbalance (and instability) is the outcome of central banks policies. 

The coronacrisis may end this kind of insanity-the house build on ice is meeting the melting point. The US may find itself economywise in the same position as Brazil-but with a major army and nuclear force. Russia and China may take over the #1 position and the US (as far there is a UNITED States) have no real options of stopping that. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 7:45am

I admit, I skimmed through the above, but there are two things that glared out at me:

1.  Russia is in an oil war with Saudi Arabia right now.  They will not be in a position to take over anything after S.A. wipes the floor with them economically.  Besides, Russia is a second world economy.  They're not in a position to make themselves a first world economy.  

2.  China basically committed economic suicide by shutting down their main manufacturing hub of Hubei.  They're in trouble too.  They may not admit it, but they are.  They may recover quicker than the U.S.  but even if they do, they have left themselves in a bad position to overtake the U.S. economy.  

That being said, the entire world is in for it economically speaking.  I think it's a bit unrealistic to put U.S. on the same scale as Brazil.  Why?  Because Brazil is a third world economy to before their economic melt-down.  Can it happen in the U.S.?  Sure, but it would take more than Corona Virus to bring the U.S. down to a third world economy.  Even the abandonment of fiat currency would not make the U.S. a third world economy.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 12:02pm

Yes, I am still in Finland.  Currently we are up to 49 cases.

I the past I have not responded much to some of your political views (I spend more time on another forum which related to the neurological problems my wife has - so AFT has been second fiddle).  However, I find that I am in much much closer agreement with what you are writing about this Coronavirus outbreak and some of the likely out comes.  

Your English is fine, and your meanings are clear enough [I can't be too fussy about written English as I have dyslexia and so my own problems with spelling and slowness of reading.]

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 1:49pm

Dutch Josh - I love your posts! I try to make sure to hit the "thanks" button, but try not to comment unless I have something of value to add. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 7:55pm

EdwinSM, sorry to hear about your wife's health problems. Hope she gets well. [url]https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/04/030504.asp[/url] 

Can a Stock Lose All Its Value?

The answer to the first part of this question is pretty straightforward: Yes, stocks are able to lose all their value in the market

Kiwi NM-thank you for your friendly words.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 11 2020 at 8:27pm


WitchMisspelled

Thank you for your comment

1-Russia is A  NOT a second world economy-in many ways they have become high tech as well (all though a lot of income is out of energy export. Russian weapons sometimes are seen as better than US weapons and often far cheaper)

B The present conflict/deal with Saudi Arabia is damaging the US much more than both Russia and Saudi Arabia. They can produce oil-mostly-at lower cost than the US can.

2-China was expecting 7% economic growrh, they can forget that due to Covid19. Most likely they may face recession this year. But A When the Chinese government manages to save the public for an even worse Covid19 epidemic than the west soon is facing they may save some respect by the public. (The west is facing more damage by lack of action by our governments.)

B There is a strategic partnership between Russia and China. Russia is hardly touched-so far-by Covid 19. After the brexit the EU is more willing to do deals with Russia and China-less pro US (we did not forget the US "F..k the EU", the NSA spying on Merkels phone etc.)

3-The US is a "superpower on credit". A The petro-US$ is coming to the end. The world is not willing to do its energy deals in US$ any longer. (We in the EU would love to see the € Euro taking over the dominant position)

B The US has trade defecits due to "outsourcing"their production-most to China. Now they blame China for that. (There was a time the US did not make TV/monitors, US cars couldnot get exported for enviromentel rules outside the US. Tesla, Boeing are no succes stories. Will China buy Facebook, Google, Apple or replace them ?)

4-"The west"has no option than also "commit economic suicide" to at least slow down this covid pandemic. The longer they wait with strong measures the more damage Covid 19 will do. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-we-can-not-help-think-two-historical-comparisons-and-both-are-terrible[/url]

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-the-hidden-cases-why-we-must-shutdown-everything-and-do-it-now-.html[/url]

(PS-my reaction got damaged by editing)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2020 at 4:10am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

"The west"has no option than also "commit economic suicide" to at least slow down this covid pandemic. The longer they wait with strong measures the more damage Covid 19 will do.
Oh boy! Aint that the truth! Well said DJ!

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 12 2020 at 11:43pm

[url]https://southfront.org/u-s-launches-strikes-on-kataib-hezbollah-in-response-to-camp-taji-attack-videos-photos/[/url] DJ-In the middle of a health crisis worse than we have seen most likely since "the plague" (this is worse than the Spanish Flu) in combination with a financial crisis that was overdue the US/Israel attacking forces in the Middle East that should be seen as part of the armies of Lebanon, Iran and Syria is not helpfull.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ogf6Hru2trE[/url] Peak Prosperity on how to deal with crisis in a mental way-panic as a first reaction is normal. Trying to understand what is happening (as far as one can see) is a good next step. (Also good info on temperature/humidity that is optimal for the corona-virus-lack of frost may keep this virus alive. There is a link between climate change-lack of winter-and Covid19)

DJ-Lack of guidance, leadership makes people to take their own decisions. The corona-virus in my opinion is just a part of a far larger crisis. 

"Babylon is burning" the way we-as humans-behave on this planet may find a limit. Very major changes are on their way-out of human control for the most part. 

When I look at Italy-numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] +189 deaths, + 2651 new cases Covid19 is out of control. That situation is on its way-just one or two weeks from now-to you. 

The bad thing is we know very little on how big this will get, will it be the end of countries, nations ? What will other nations do ? When is something to be seen as "help/assistance" and when is some other country/organization/company/gang taking over ? 

What we should realize is that even in the best scenario [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/when-will-authorities-lockdown-america-how-long-will-quarentine-last-heres-what-patterns[/url] the crisis will last at best months. If we get out of this crisis in a few years I consider that as good news. 

How (and where) to deal with this new uncertain reality is very hard to tell-for everyone. [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/02/arctic-ocean-february-2020.html[/url] The climate crisis makes everything much worse....



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 1:15am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWEakkc_xxs[/url] Peak Prosperity

DJ-most important info=ex-China the rest of the world it took 19 days from going from 100 cases to 1000 cases. It took 19 days to go from 1000 cases it to 10.000 cases-just a few days ago. By the end of this month we may face 100.000 cases, end of april, early may 1.000.000 cases-second half of may 10.000.000 cases and early june 100.000.000 cases. 

The time to act is NOW !!!!!

Another point from Italy 10% of infected end up in intensive care. Maybe to lack of testing the real number is not as bad. But there is a limit to intensive care. Italy has 5500 ICU's, the Netherlands 1050. Medical workers have limits in what they can do. When the healthcare system breaks down video's of people collapsing on the street will become reality. 

China is sending medical aid and experts to Iran, Italy-they are even sending masks-for free !!!-to the US. Since the US is not testing, lying about the real cases-UK and US struggle on how to mismanage this worst outbreak since tha plague (it is worse than the Spanish flu) the real situation in the US is far worse that statistics show. The US by now may have already over 1 milion cases...I (DJ) am glad trump stopped airtraffic between most of Europe and the US. 

Maybe some of US citizens try to go to Cuba for (free) healthcare ? Will the US accept Chinese aid/experts ?

The spread in Latin America-with warmer temperatures-is just another indication of the corona-virus not giving up. This will become a major problem for years-not months !

Also on P.P. how people "recover" from Covid19-often with long problems after ICU treatment. When the healthcaresystem breaks down the CFR will be more like Ebola than the flu. I (DJ) also expect an increase of all kind of co-infections after the healthcaresystem breaks down. 

The only way to stop "total disaster" is "stay at home", social distancing en try to inform as much as you can other people via the internet. Good communications can make the general public aware of how critical the situation is-that is a major faillure in CDC's around the globe. 

Maybe when I studied history I did very well on "old history" when plagues were "normal" that makes me more aware of the risks ? 

People on AFT-this forum-do not take "good health" as given-you have to work hard on prevention and science. Communication is essential-that is why AFT is that important. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 1:47am

What I am thinking about now, is that if this becomes a yearly or a year round outbreak then many people will have a much shorter retirement than they thought they would.   

This will start to bring the 'population pyramid' back towards the historic pyramid shape.  How this will work out in the countries with "aging problems" (countries like China, Japan and most of Europe) I am not sure... will have to wait longer to see what the acutal death rates are.  Maybe there will be less of a waiting list for nursing homes, maybe the pension bomb will not be so big, maybe there will be fewer old people to go on cruises and that industry will never fully recover.

[ps. I am retired]


I am also wondering when stockpiles of medicines will start to run out (eg most of the world's antibiotics were made in China), and when that will start affecting the death rate.  Also if/when some of the medications my wife is using will run out (I am most concerned about her asthma).


The other issue is that I fear that once the outbreak passes businesses will not be able to get back to where they were before, and we will all be materially a lot poorer.  In food supply, I guess some items currently in the shops will disappear and so we will have to change some habits.  We might have to go back to making more of our own food (and all the time that takes in the kitchen)


We have some solar panels that are grid-tied whereby we can sell back excess electricity. The rate in Finland is tied to the spot-price. As businesses are shutting down the demand might go down, and so the small price I get paid will get smaller.


I seem to have too much time to think  , so I need to get out in the garden more, but it snowed last night  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 6:59am

EdwinSM, at a certain moment there will be [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity[/url].. With expectations of 50% or more of the general (global ?) public getting infected (this year-I guess) herd immunity will be on its way. 

Essential is to avoid a peak of cases-and that is what went wrong-to "limit the damage". With an (extreme) peak the medical services simply can not handle anything for the duration of the peak. The peak will kill most of the Covid19 victums-and others who need intensive medical care at that time. 

The impression that I am getting (from Italy, Iran) is Covid19 is effecting all adults. Not only the elderly. Since those who survive a-first-infection can suffer from (severe) internal damage the pressure on the care system will not be over after a few years. 

Cruises etc. have severe imago-damage-people will think twice before going on a cruise for a longer period-maybe those ships can become "botels" boat-hotels ? 

Medication seems to be problematic-since it is often a long chain of producers around the globe. China may be able to sell raw materials-but farma-companies may be shut down in a lot of countries. Other countries may not be able to get the machinery to produce the medication-it is a precision job with well educated workers.

The global economy is moving into an economic depression high speed. Also on the political front things will change high speed-politicians who take health care more serious get more chances-politicians who only care for bussiness will get less chance.

I hope your wife can get her medication in time. Here in the Netherlands you are lucky when you can get medication for three months-so one can only hope in June there will be a next prescription ready...

We did not have any snow-hardly any frost-this winter-very abnormal for the Netherlands. 

I love music-history-it can take me away from "here and now". We do have a garden but no talent for gardening...

Never give up hope !



 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 16 2020 at 11:55pm

Great posts from Peak Prosperity  (PP) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_8QiUTWVnjQ[/url]

In my opinion we need to see governments rushing to keep essential installations safe. Nuclear plants, other nuclear installations, dams etc. In the US, UK, NL governments do not want lock downs (yet) so the virus will keep spreading...

I did see your calculations, models, Albert, CRS DrPH, in my opinion those models are even to optimistic. 

Banks are crashing-the financial system is collapsing. Healthcare systems are only days away from global collapse. Here in the NetherLands (NL) hospitals are running out of face masks, PPE etc-starting to reuse them, wearing them all day...most likely other countries will have the same problems...

PP mentions the healthminister of Sweden not understanding what is happening-most politicians do not get it. Worse-most medical experts work with unrealistic models.

What I like with PP is a wider view-connecting economy with this virus-and then things get grimm...

Since most countries are not able to get any control on this virus they will go for people "with big mouths" and create their own reality. 

This will end very bad...all you can do is self isolation and try not to go insane...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2020 at 12:55am




Thanks DJ, I to always read your posts, never have much to add,as you seem to cover all my questions,

Keep up the great work....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2020 at 1:19am

carbon20-thank you..by writing I try to get an overview of events-direct my thinking-avoind getting to much depressed. 

The [url]https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/[/url] was at (unprecedented) 100 seconds to midnight-reality moves faster.

On the good side-no traffic jams, clear sky, most (still open) shops as good as no customers-low prices-and they treat you as a VIP...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2020 at 5:32am

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Thanks DJ, I to always read your posts, never have much to add,as you seem to cover all my questions,

Keep up the great work....

Ditto!

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2020 at 8:01am

Thanks Techno...

An "optimistic worse case scenario"in my opinion would be 200-500 milion lives lost due to this corona-crisis by the end of this year. (Most due to shortage of food, water etc. violence). When governments had acted faster-in time-it could be less than 1 million.

As a reminder-some historians think the Spanish Flu may have cost 100 million lives-5% of the-at that moment-global population (of 2 billion). [url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/[/url] The present global population is 7.8 billion people. 

That would make 2,5% to something like 8%. Let us hope we can limit those numbers !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 12:17am

DJ-Due to lack of action most (western oriented) countries face only negative choices. You can have massive number of fatalities now or when you lift your lock-down. Most of those countries neglected healthcare and education-money went to lower taxes for the rich, "save the economy-"banks-to-big-to-fail-moneyeaters". In this far from democratic proces the "1 percent" got richer-the rest had to pay. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmhsNdW24BM[/url] (Peak Prosperity (PP) has two parts-the pandemic-lack of action in time only left bad options. From min 26-economy. Government aid in billions to companies that buy their shares-with those billions-to increase "profit per share" so their CEO's can increase their extreme incomes even further. For "average-Joe"-the normal (wo)man-any money without working for it "makes you lazy". Even when you have to go to a job that will get you infected that is better than "becoming a beggar"-says a person from an elite that never did a usefull job in his/her life. 

From PP-since it answers many questions;

The more we learn about the coronavirus, the more nefarious it becomes. Most public efforts to are focused on detecting those with symptoms, like a fever. But new research shows that the majority of covid-19 carriers (50%-75%) are asymptomatic. So you're much more likely to get infected by someone who looks and feels fine. 


To date it looked like only the elderly and immunocompromised were at risk of serious complications. Well, that assumption is changing. European doctors are reporting a concerning number of younger, healthy people getting sick, too.  


Similarly, it was assumed that the virus didn't thrive in heat and humidity. Hopes in the northern hemisphere have been pinned on the nearing arrival of Spring. Well, new data shows that this may be false hope. 


And as government response plans become clearer, the math shows that most of them will be too insufficient to "Flatten The Curve" much and prevent national health care systems from being overwhelmed. Combined, most of what we're learning now reinforces the conclusion that many, many people will become infected; the virus will be with us a long time; and the economic legacy will be massive and painful.

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/johnstone-9-surreal-thoughts-about-covid-19-whats-coming-next[/url];

I mean, we’re in the first moments of an unfolding pandemic which, from what I can tell just looking at the numbers, is about to change the world in some pretty significant ways. Governmental faceplant after governmental faceplant after missed opportunity after missed opportunity all around the world appears to have set us on a trajectory toward overburdened healthcare systems, severe economic downturns, and, of course, mass deaths.

And maybe chaos. And maybe healing. And maybe, when all is said and done, a total restructuring of power and the way we do things.

-

 I think this is going to hit America much harder than other countries, unfortunately. Combine a literal joke of a healthcare system with a president who up until just today has been dismissive of the threat the virus poses, the fact that the majority of Americans can’t afford a $1,000 emergency expense at a time of mounting layoffs while being chronically uninsured or underinsured, an inability to make anything happen without massive corporations voluntarily going against their own profit margins, a culture of rugged individualism with a reflexive distaste for collectivist organization for the good of the whole, and a highly religious population with many preachers telling their underinsured parishioners to demonstrate their faith by gathering at the megachurch and shaking hands with everyone, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

-

Google-owned YouTube has just announced that they’re going to be censoring a lot more videos during the pandemic, citing the need to rely on automated censorship as they scale back workers’ presence at the office. No attempt has been made to explain why YouTube staff can’t just review the material working from home. Definitely worth keeping an eye on; if widespread authoritarian measures are going to be implemented during this time, increasing internet censorship will likely be the first step.

-

And the US of course realizes this threat, which is why my social media notifications right now are full of propagandized human livestock bleating about China being the Latest Official Bad Guy who I absolutely must believe very bad things about. A dying empire knows it’s going to need to take some drastic, dangerous measures to secure world dominance in the face of a surging contender, and it knows it needs to manufacture consent for those drastic, dangerous measures. Anti-China propaganda has been pouring into mainstream consciousness with more and more aggression lately, first and foremost within right-wing echo chambers but also within mainstream liberal ones — Joe Biden compared the Chinese government to Jack the Ripper just last night.

-

Primarily though, we all need a big rest from constantly doing such soul-draining things. Having to do this while under the worry that we won’t be able to pay our rent and bills is not ideal, but do as my Mum always says — worry about the things you can change, and for the things you can’t change right now, leave them for the birds. Leave the bills for the birds for now. We will work out something; we always do. But for now, you are safe and you have everything you need. Notice that. Once you’ve established that you’re solid in this moment at least, take this time to really dig as deeply in to relaxation as you can. Watch some stand-up and get yourself laughing, sing to some youtube karaokes, nap often and deeply, take showers and baths, really taste your food and enjoy your breath, yawn and stretch and cuddle and shake it all out. Forget about cleaning out the cupboards or learning that instrument or reading that book or whatever cute thing you decided you really should do now that you have the time — let your animal body lead the way, and give your brain a rest from all the shoulds and shouldn’ts. You’re fine just to do nothing at all. Sink in to that.


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 7:58am

Thanks DJ, I *really* needed this part:

Leave the bills for the birds for now. We will work out something; we always do. But for now, you are safe and you have everything you need. Notice that. Once you’ve established that you’re solid in this moment at least, take this time to really dig as deeply in to relaxation as you can. Watch some stand-up and get yourself laughing, sing to some youtube karaokes, nap often and deeply, take showers and baths, really taste your food and enjoy your breath, yawn and stretch and cuddle and shake it all out. Forget about cleaning out the cupboards or learning that instrument or reading that book or whatever cute thing you decided you really should do now that you have the time — let your animal body lead the way, and give your brain a rest from all the shoulds and shouldn’ts. You’re fine just to do nothing at all. Sink in to that.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 8:15am

Great post, Josh...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 9:09am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OV5_LQArLa0[/url]

Gerry & The Pacemakers - You'll Never Walk Alone [Official Video]

When you walk through a storm
Hold your head up high
And don't be afraid of the dark
At the end of a storm
There's a golden sky
And the sweet silver song of a lark
Walk on through the wind
Walk on through the rain
Though your dreams be tossed and blown
Walk on, walk on
With hope in your heart
And you'll never walk alone
You'll never walk alone
Walk on, walk on
With hope in your heart
And you'll never walk alone
You'll never walk alone
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 9:13am

Ah! Carousel!  Much loved musical.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 19 2020 at 9:26am

Just relax guys we have plenty of time to do what we want.  I am a person who needs to be busy, so I am cleaning things that needed to be done for a long time.  I am going through papers and burning them today it is snowing here and I have a great fire going.  So do what makes you happy is my best advice.   

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 21 2020 at 3:33am

DJ- I am not a big fan of Hal Turner but there might be some realism in this story [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/epidemic-computer-models-show-only-complete-shut-down-for-18-months-can-stop-virus[/url]-basicly-a vaccin is needed. 

From Peak Prosperity  (P.P.) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOIvGIukZhk[/url]  (at 6 minutes)some basic numbers;

january 19 100 cases worlwide reported,

januari 24 1000 cases

januari 28 5000 cases

february 12 50.000 cases

march 6 100.000 cases

march 14 150.000 cases

march 18 200.000 cases

march 19 225.000 cases

march 20 250.000 cases

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/[/url] and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-toll/[/url] give more statistics.

The numbers itself are very likely only the top of the iceberg. Also on P.P. if the goal would be herd-immunity and italy now has 778 per million we have to go to 80/85% of herd-immunity to stop the spread-Italy now has 0.0778% . 


DJ-We can get a view of "the job" that has to be done. In P.P. also a report of a US citizen getting a bill of over 20.000 US$ for testing and treatment of Covid-19. I noticed also a tendency in the US to call covid19 "Wuhan-flu" etc. That is not helping. 

Over 2 million US citizens lost their job- with millions to follow-now only are able to get a short time income (while there are billions for companies and banks). The US should learn from other countries to avoid chaos and further major damage.

Most countries in the developed world have a balance between bussiness and government. Most countries have public healthcare-it is insane to expect your citizens to be able to deal with these kind of major crises on their own. If the US does not come up with some basic income, housing, healthcare payed via tax-while they expect "average Joe" to pay for companies and the very rich- I welcome a revolution in the US. The US will be the world major health risk.

Other countries will get to breaking point-healthcare system collapsing means other diseases also likely to get out of control. When I look at the Netherlands a lot of office jobs are now done from home. The economy did get a serious kick-but somehow we adjust to a new situation (that may last for a few years). A lot of restaurants and supermarkets now increase home-delivery. (Wich also provides new jobs).

I expect to see a shift in jobs-much more jobs in healthcare and logistics. A model we will export around the globe.

Our healthcaresystem may get over breakingpoint soon-there will be some panic-we also will pay a heavy price in deaths and suffering. (Even if the number of fatalities at the age group <30 y.o. =0.1% there will be lots of fatalities in that age group.)

When I look at the Germany numbers at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] I wonder do they do more testing-in an early stage and manage to keep the numbers of severe cases/deaths limited ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine#COVID-19[/url] and other medical interventions look promissing. 

A major-long term-rule has to be strict travel restrictions. I do not believe the Chinese numbers. They may have some grip on Covid19-but there most likely will be second, third waves of outbreaks. 

For the third world things look very bad. There is no infrastructure for medical action on a very major scale, no infrastructure for communication. Only a limited number of people from some countries can be saved in the short term. The situation in some major cities may be similar to third world countries. Most likely in a very unfriendly way some regions will get sealed of-for years. 

A major risk is co-infections, other diseases becoming a major issue when healthcare breaks down. Monitoring developments may be essential. 

To limit public unrest the military should only get involved in certain roles. Internet-surveilance and control will be a major thing.(We already see that in China, Israel most likely other countries)  (Here in the Netherlands military will play a role in transports, field/navy-ship hospitals. )

I earlier made an "optimistic worst case scenario estimate" of 200-500 million deaths due to this Covid19 crisis. Most of them would not die from Covid19 but of shortages of food, water, other diseases, "natural"disasters etc. 

Is this Covid19 pandemic "the end"-it does not have to be that way. Early action could have limited the number of deaths < 1 million. There is still time to prevent "pessimistic worst case scenario's". A US-China war would be the last thing needed-also US agression in the Middle East has to stop. The US should stick to trump promisses of getting the US out of the middle east. 

Climate change most likely will make this "job" even harder although much less traffic, industry may cause a slow down in global warming. (And that part of the corona-crisis is welcome.) 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/congress-members-profit-from-crisis.html[/url] DJ-With this kind of "politicians" you do not need a foreign enemy !!! 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2020 at 12:10am

(somehow I pressed the wrong buttons and a message I was working on got deleted....)

-Italy getting help from Russia, China, Cuba-also from the US [url]https://www.thelocal.it/20200321/coronavirus-italy-us-disaster-group-opens-camp-hospital-in-italys-north[/url]

-[url]https://www.news24.com/SouthAfrica/News/coronavirus-president-ramaphosa-prepares-to-address-nation-after-meeting-various-stakeholders-20200322[/url] (South) Africa may become another hot spot for Covid 19

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-on-western-government-failures-and-possible-therapies.html[/url]

The US most likely is #1 in Covid cases-already #3 in [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] lack of testing, free healthcare, job-insecurity mean that sick people will keep spreading Covid19. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chloroquine[/url] may not be the cure for Covid19

Peak Prosperity updates [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4qPG4M7Z2Kw[/url] health and [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RECCXQ0h_uc[/url] economic collapse.

DJ-The economic fall out of Covid19 is extreme. SARS-countries were able to manage the number of cases a bit. Russia may have been lucky. (Germany may have limited serious cases/deaths by early testing ???) Cuba may have also been able to keep numbers down by closing borders and good-free-healthcare. "The West" will pay for their neglect of healthcare (and education). 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2020 at 3:35am

DJ,  I am amazed by the stupidity of  our leadership and it's collective lack of historical background.  let's do the right thing here.  Let's actually learn SOMETHING.  We are currently facing the greatest threat to health in 100 years. What we are dealing with is a crisis of values.  What do we value ? Who do we value and why do we value a person or a group over others.    We do not value people.  We do not value our culture.  We don't value our future.  As Chris Martenson said the otter day.  It didn't have to be this way. Our leaders have failed us.  From Ping to Trump to Merkel to the Iraniian leadership, they have all failed.   We the people are on our own.   Many won't make it thru the other side of this pandemic.   My question is  why didn't they see this coming ?  if a 55 year old man with limited means and time left on this planet could figure this out, then why couldn't they figure this out.  Trump had a 2 month lead on this pandemic.   This is  bad for our leadership.  It means that they don' t give at rats ass about anything or anyone..   At a time of international  crisis, our congress Is much more concerned about giving tax dollars to the rich than helping people.  Now I knew that the powers that be don't give  a fuck about us.  But., the level of incompetence and open greed Is something to behold.  I have reached the point of no return.   in conclusion,  We are in the age of denial, deceit and despair...  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2020 at 4:13am

ME163-I agree mostly with your reaction. Maybe the healthcrisis is the worst since the plague in the 14th century in Europe. Politicians shoud try to limit the damage-but even here they fail !

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crash-everything-bubble-here-and-its-not-going-away-anytime-soon[/url],

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/theyve-been-lying-start-french-medics-file-suit-against-prime-minister[/url]..

As Peak Prosperity keeps repeating-try to limit the peak in cases as much as you can. But for that you need guarantees on income, jobs, housing and healthcare. The US government should that make priority #1 (and #2, #3 etc) in stead of doing so another "zillions" of US$ going to Boeing, Tesla and the other "1%". [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-03-21/operation-virtual-dictatorship[/url]

The (Canadian) writer [url]https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/17/we-know-script-naomi-klein-warns-coronavirus-capitalism-new-video-detailing-battle[/url] has been warning for "disaster capitalism". 

DJ-To be realistic-the US does not have a patent on "disaster capitalism". Russia, China may use the same system to increase their influence....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 23 2020 at 6:12am

Thanks DJ.  I always watch the Peak Prosperity videos, but reached overload on Friday and couldn't bear to watch them the past few days.  

ME163: I'm right there with you.  Angry, sad, frustrated, despondent and furious that there seems to be nothing that will get through to the powers that be, and shocked that this is actually happening.  



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2020 at 3:14am

Another good info Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzaHBM7PP8A[/url] in my (DJ) view main points;

-P.P. keeps stressing the importance of mask (or at least something to cover your nose and mouth). What I am getting it does not have to be perfect-at least something to keep most/a lot of virusses out if you come in contact with an infected person. 

-Incubationtime-again most likely in 90/95% of cases between 2 and 14 days. A few may have symptoms on day 1-some more may see symptoms between 14-27 days after infection. (With a lot of a-symptomatic cases it must be very hard to give exact numbers).

-P.P. also-be on the safe side with Ibuprofen-or any other medication. Symptoms give you info on what is happening. Take time to get better !

-Are nausea and/or diarrhea in an early stage indications for more severe cases ?

-When you don't end up in hospital "you are a mild case" often-even when it is the worst virusinfection you had [url]https://www.ellwoodcityledger.com/zz/sports/20200323/olympic-swimmer-cameron-van-der-burgh-calls-coronavirus-by-far-worst-virus-he-faced[/url]

-By the end of this month we will be over the 1.000.000 cases (?) (DJ-by the end of this day above 400.000 cases)

DJ-[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/cdc-coronavirus-can-live-on-surfaces-for-17-days[/url] ?

DJ-The Netherlands is getting more strict rules-but still no lockdown. I see some trends; supermarkets may lose marketshare to online shopping. Working from home instead of an office may also become a "new normal".

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-tale-three-regions[/url];

These stories suggest a few things to be considered in other ongoing epidemics and for the future.

1) If “superspreaders” are involved in sudden outbursts, containment measures should account for this possibility and provide for intensive and extensive testing of the population around any given case. This could explain the South Korean success. In other examples where the epidemics still looks linear in the absence of such extensive testing, it may be the fortunate case that so far, no superspreaders have surfaced. Perhaps there was an undetected superspreader in Washington state. In France, UK or NY, the increasing numbers may be related with many individual contacts with Italy and now Spain (or Iran, SK) rather than a superspreader. The differences between NY and CA may reflect less direct contact with Europe in the latter case.

2) When containment has failed and uncontrolled spread is seen, the sooner quarantines are decreed, the better.

3) Other differences can be related with the intensity of social relations in large metropolitan areas like Wuhan in Hubei or Madrid in Spain (and presumably NYC?). Madrid accounts for about 60% of casualties in Spain. I think that NYC is now making a big effort to test everybody and this is good though a bit too late now.

4) Last but not least, the proportion of vulnerable people in a country will almost certainly affect overall mortality and contribute positively or negatively to the slope of the curve.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 24 2020 at 3:53am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 2:41am

Another Peak Prosperity update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIp8DxCdoBo[/url] with in it;

-statistics of how the pandemic is developing in counties were people use facemasks (like East Asia) and not ( the "west")

(If you want people to spread diseases what is wrong with facemasks ????)

-Media giving wrong info-the RNA on the ship was 17 days old does not mean Covid-19 "survives 17 days on surfaces"-the remains "dead bodies"of the virus was found.

-Also claims from the UK "already over 50% of the population did get Covid19" "so the real risk is very low" while not testing-is-at best wishfull thinking-but misleading. 

P.P also surprised about the low numbers in Germany DJ-[url]https://nos.nl/artikel/2328273-waarom-overlijden-er-in-duitsland-relatief-weinig-mensen-aan-corona.html[/url]

-Germany had early cases from wich they learned a lot

-average age of cases is 45 (Italy 67)

-lots of ICU's and lots of testing-in early stage

-the number of serious cases/deaths will go up but for now they are able to manage it. 

Looking at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] one can see a rise in numbers from South Africa, Russia and other countries that had low numbers untill recent. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/here-where-everyone-world-now-corona-curve[/url] China may be over the peak, most of western Europe is halfway. The US is doing very bad (trum hopes the problem will go away-still very limited testing. People not alowed to wear masks in high-risk area's, no limit on flying still ? ) Russia, South Africa e.m.o. still in the early stage. 

[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/483865-europe-coronavirus-russia-china/[/url] China may be over the peak and learned a lot-now mass producing face masks (the shortage in the EU may be over within a week if we do bussines with China)-sharing/working with Russia (that does have medical reserves and is willing to learn from China and EU). I expect very fast growing influence of Russia, China in the EU. EurAsia-integration was already on its way but is speeding up. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/european-central-bank-being-stretched-its-breaking-point-italy[/url] DJ-There is no point in printing extra currency if you do not slow down the pandemic. The US is putting the "horse on the wrong side of the car". 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-shrugs-us-sanctions-gives-millions-coronavirus-aid-iran[/url]

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pompeo-issues-5-facts-says-iran-imported-covid-19-least-5-countries[/url] DJ-The US is damaging itself even further by blaming China, Iran while not doing anything serious to stop the outbreak in the US at a national level (same thing in Brasil-were states and cities do take good steps but a foolish idiot is running the country). 

DJ-My long term view of were we will be early 2022;

-US as good as destroyed by covid19-close to revolution if on a federal level you do net get more wisdom.

-EU recovering-but severe (demographic, economy) damage (a lot of younger persons may survive Covid19 with serious lungdamage). Eur-Asia integration may see China operating hospitals all over the EU. 

-Africa, (rest of ) America in very serious problems-islands of safety  were there is oil, minerals, grain/food production for EurAsia (recolonisation again)

In my view the "best worst case scenario" is getting out of sight. The number of deaths due to the coronacrisis may end up above 500 million cases by the end of this year. Next year may still see a high number of cases. 

-The view seems to be chances of "re-infection" are small-reports of people getting reinfected may indicate testing limitations. People do get sick again because the were not better yet. The small virusload did give a "secound round" of symptoms. 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/coronavirus-how-to-lift-lockdowns-and-why-we-should-all-wear-masks.html[/url]

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 3:01am







thanks DJ, good to get  info from Europe, I do watch DW English news,along with French news an Al Jazeera ,I like to get perspectives  from other countries.....

Take care, stay well 

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 4:25am

carbon20, thanks-take care.

The more (reasonable) sources the better informed. From the Netherlands; [url]https://nltimes.nl/[/url]

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/25/dutch-coronavirus-infection-rate-declining-health-officials[/url]=wishfull thinking or even propaganda-the RIVM (dutch CDC) claim they do a good job. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/03/25/plasma-recovered-coronavirus-patients-help-new-covid-19-cases-blood-banks[/url] is better info.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 25 2020 at 8:09am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

-Media giving wrong info-the RNA on the ship was 17 days old does not mean Covid-19 "survives 17 days on surfaces"-the remains "dead bodies"of the virus was found.

Thanks as always, DJ!!  You are doing a great job, holding down the European perspective! 

This is an interesting article about survival of the SARS-CoV2 virus on different surfaces, comparing it to the original SARS virus from 2003:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 12:56am

Thanks CRS, DrPH-SARS-1 was taken quite serious, why SARS-2/Covid19 was not taken serious by "the west" now ? 

The Dutch CDC-RIVM claimed the R0 was getting under 1-stopping the spread-here in the Netherlands lot of hospitals think RIVM is not getting the correct numbers in time. Looking at how things worked out in Italy, China etc. there is no reason to believe "stop shaking hands" and "work from home" can have a major impact on this outbreak...(still RIVM claims things in the Netherlands are different than elsewere ?)

Brings me to Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8XPiHx8RgBM[/url] Is Stanford University being paid for "misleading info" ? Their claims that the flu is worse is non-sense ! (Reminds me of climate change info-a group of rich people think they can buy "science" that tells what they want the world to believe.)

When scientists become for sale during a pandemic and claim there is no pandemic things only get worse....

In Europe-even in the Netherlands-still in an early stage of the pandemic-ICU's are close to their limits. We have 1150 ICU's-500 of them for non-Covid cases so there is a struggle to increase capacity with 582 serious cases of Covid19. (In a even very bad season we do not see this kind of problems).

Nobody is willing yet to admit we are getting close that we have to deny some cases life-saving care. (Here in the NL some people are asked if they do want to go into ICU or not- wich means most likely they will die-a sort of pre-triage. Also euthanasia is an option often-when there is no hope left.)

"Scientists-for-sale" denying the crises all over the world are criminals in my opinion. 

We are not far from-in some countries we may already see-healthcare system collapsing. Lots of Health Care Workers (HCW) getting infected themselves and numbers of them dying . The point is you do not have replacements...the health care system is gone at a certain moment. 

The numbers of tested cases [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] arealready exploding around almost all of the globe. This is just the beginning....

When health care collapses all other diseases may get out of control-forget about detecting bacterial co-infections etc. we are in the jungle...

There was some attention for the London (UK) subway/metro being overcrowded-that limited service was the result of 20% of the metro-workers being ill already....now !

What could be hit next is the logistics network, police, security etc.....in some countries (like the NL) there were at least some steps taken to slow down the exponential growth. 

From worldometers; feb 12=50.000 cases, march 6=100.000 cases, march 14=150.000c, march 18=200.000c, march 20=250k-c, march 21=300k-c march 23=350k-c, march 24=400k-c, march 25=450k.c today we get over the 500k-c and that line will go up for at least several more days...and that is only the tested reported cases....

The World Trade Organization already warns for severe consequences...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 26 2020 at 10:48pm

Can pandemics destroy countries ? Yes-they can do that much damage. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raid_on_the_Medway[/url] (in 1667 the Dutch destroyed/did steel the UK fleet. The UK was devastated by the plague, the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Fire_of_London[/url] was in sept.1666, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Plague_of_London[/url] did kill 25% of all London inhabitants in 18 months. "We"-the Dutch lost Nieuw Amsterdam in the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Anglo-Dutch_War[/url] to the UK-it became New York)

In Roman times [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plague_of_Justinian[/url] and 14th century [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death[/url] some parts of Europe was left without humans-most of those who lived there were dead, a few did escape-most spreading diseases elsewere. (And yet some area's were not even touched by disease. Very limited transport, self supporting local economies could mean an area had as good as no contact with other area's.)

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Country[/url].. The US (and Canada) with still very few limitations on (air)transport is spreading/exporting Covid19. In New York the picture I am getting is that healthcare is collapsing-logistics/police may be next. Lots of New Yorkers escape-spreading/exporting the disease further (not only in the US but also to the EU). [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/us-epicenter-ny-parks-bustle-subway-packed-social-distancing-defied-flaunted[/url]

With health care gone there is no limits for the spread of other diseases, medication for chronic illnesses may become "hard to get",

Food soon will become an issue-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/catastrophe-looms-millions-americans-set-lose-employer-sponsored-health-insurance[/url].. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/corporate-socialism-government-bailing-out-investors-managers-not-you[/url] The US government seems to be unwilling to help "average Joe".....

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/get-ready-world-money[/url].. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-warship-transits-taiwan-strait-amid-covid-19-pandemic[/url] some in the US would like to start war(s) with China, Iran, Russia, North Korea....[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/unfolding-nightmare-pacific-us-carrier-diverts-guam-covid-19-cases-spike[/url] others realize the US military has a major Covid-19 problem (and just like cruiseships aircraftcarriers can become covid19 hotspots).

DJ-The only possible outcome one may hope for is international cooperation to get Covid19 (and climate change, nuclear weapons etc) under control....but the world will not be the same after that.



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