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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.


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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 23 2021 at 9:57pm


Still a lot of many unanswered questions; from how unique is this coronapandemic to how to deal with it..Lots of countries may move towards counting hospital admissions in stead of positive tests (and keep ignoring long covid a.o.). 

In my eyes "living with the virus (living with climate change, living with wars) is the right wing political choice...The "political left" [url][/url] or is going for the (in my opinion correct) view that "living with the virus is living with a worsening pandemic"...[url][/url] or (online meeting; stop the pandemic-last sunday). 

To be realistic; "living with the virus" (just like living with the climate crisis-we will overcome problems with new techniques...) for now is the dominant policy...DJ-I am NOT neutral...I think we have to act to stop this pandemic (etc...) so "proberbly that puts me (again) in the "left wing radical alarmist group with unrealistic views on economy" be it ! 

I am not neutral-never claimed I was...

-A look at numbers add to the global confusion [url][/url] or global cases are supposed to go down...-4%, deaths -0,8%...

US cases -7% with limited vaccinations/restrictions US deaths +14%...simply lack of testing ? 

UK cases +14%, deaths +9%...relevant numbers, high level of vaccinations...

NL cases +5%, deaths +10% a lot of similarity with UK choices...

Israel cases +23%, deaths +29%...also high level of vaccinations-increase of restrictions...

Schools still have to start in most places, just started in some regions...People returning from vacations...Indicating it is very likely numbers will get worse not better...

In my view the wrong discussion is going on on vaccines; We need to increase vaccine production so we can go for booster vaccines-that are needed-certainly for the most vulnarable that in many countries did get vaccinated over 6 months ago...AND we have to increase vaccinations in countries we keep poor...

As long as Big Pharma can make lots of profits on vaccines (why end the pandemic ? It is making profits !) "poor countries" may seek help from China...They are mass producing and exporting vaccines...may soon start exporting hospitals/staff to deal with outbreaks in those countries...The "western alternatives" is more "trade debt" so Big Pharma can have their share holder profits...

I see a lot of similarities with the present Afghan-crisis. "We" refuse Afghan refugees coming from the Mediterranean Sea...they come to the "west" for economic reasons...But all those at Kabul-airport are "trying to get away from the taliban"...The "terrible taliban" with same views as Saudi Arabia, Gulf States..some other western allies...Why is there no discussion on keeping western embassies open in Kabul-with at least some basic staff ? 

I think that all those Afghans that worked withh NATO occupation forces deserve protection-if possible in those NATO countries...Restarting the war-it could be a NATO plan-is not solving the crisis...

Are there any talks between "the west"/NATO and Russia-Iran-China (RIC) and Pakistan on this crisis ? Who did fund this taliban...of course most likely Pakistan, Saudi, Gulf States...played a major role...but that does not fit the story..

We are supposed to believe NATO is fighting for womens rights in Afghanistan...

We are supposed to believe "living with the virus" will not bring further open up the schools for unvaccinated children...with bad ventilation (average school in NL is +40 years old..some much older...if there is ventilation it may have to do with poor isolation...). 

Are deer involved with this pandemic ? If you do not test them you can not "blame China"...blame the unvaccinated...blame people with red hair...the blame-game insanity...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or
We detect SARS-CoV-2 virus and viral replication in pulmonary tissues by RNA-ISH and IHC and a variety of non-pulmonary tissues including kidney, heart, liver, spleen, thyroid, lymph node, prostate, uterus, and colon by qRT-PCR. We observe heterogeneity in viral load and viral cytopathic effects among various organ systems, between individuals and within the same patient. In a patient with a history of kidney transplant and under immunosuppressant therapy, we observe an unusually high viral load in lung tissue by RNA-ISH, IHC and qRT-PCR. SARS-CoV-2 virus is also detected in this patent’s kidney, liver and uterus. We find ACE2TMPRSS2 and AR expression to overlap with the infection sites.

This study portrays the impact of dispersed SARS-CoV-2 infection in diverse organ systems, thereby facilitating avenues for systematic therapeutic approaches

DJ-Covid19 infection is all over the body ! "Fighting" the virus also may deal with multiple infections at the same time. Every patient may have another illness (in some ways...lungs most common problem though).

[url][/url] or latest;  

Statement on Unidentified Songbird Illness Reported from Eastern U.S.

July 14, 2021 Updated on August 23, 2021.

A joint statement of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology and the Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine.

Many people are concerned about the emergence of a new illness causing crusty eyes, tremors, and paralysis among songbirds in several eastern states including Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and District of Columbia. This illness and the uncertainty around it are upsetting, and we share your concern.

The Cornell Lab of Ornithology does not have experts studying the situation. We have prepared this statement with the help of the Cornell University College of Veterinary Medicine to summarize the state of knowledge of experts in state and federal agencies who are working to understand this event. For a detailed summary of the situation, please see this statement from the U.S. Geological Survey.

The main points to know

  • Please follow your own state’s guidelines on whether to take down bird feedersFind your state agency here.
  • Although little is known yet about the cause, as of mid-July, it appears that the incidence of the illness may be waning.
  • No human health or domestic livestock/poultry issues have been reported.
  • The illness is not caused by any of the major known bird diseases such as West Nile, salmonella, avian influenza, House Finch eye disease, Trichomonas parasites, etc.
  • The species most frequently affected are fledgling (juvenile) Blue Jays, Common Grackles, European Starlings, and American Robins, along with a few other species. Symptoms include crusty eyes and neurological signs such as tremors or partial paralysis.
  • We don’t yet know if the illness is caused by a disease organism (i.e., virus, bacteria, or parasite), or if it’s the result of a toxic substance in the landscape.
  • If it’s a disease, we don’t know how it’s transmitted. It might be directly transmissible from bird to bird (like a cold or the flu), or might require a vector (such as with malaria, where a mosquito transmits the illness)...

DJ-[url][/url] or ;


The recurrent appearance of novel coronaviruses (CoVs) and the mortality and morbidity caused by their outbreaks aroused a widespread response among the global science community. Wild birds' high biodiversity, perching and migratory activity, ability to travel long distances and possession of a special adaptive immune system may make them alarming sources of zoonotic CoV-spreading vectors. This review gathers the available evidence on the global spread of CoVs in wild birds to date. The major wild birds associated with different types of CoVs are Anseriformes, Charadriiformes, Columbiformes, Pelecaniformes, Galliformes, Passeriformes, Psittaciformes, Accipitriformes, Ciconiiformes, Gruiformes and so on. However, the main type of CoVs found in wild birds is gammacoronavirus, followed by deltacoronavirus. Consequently, it is imperative to enable thorough research and continuous monitoring to fill the study gap in terms of understanding their role as zoonotic vectors and the frequent appearance of novel CoVs.

So coronavirus diseases are widespread in animals...from deer to birds, bats....As far as I (as a non expert) can tell some sort of coronavirus was just waiting to (again) jump species...into humans...No Wuhan-lab needed...the number of coronavirus diseases in wild animals is large. We simply may have ignored the risks.

It is-still-unclear what did cause the high number of sick US birds...I did not see corona virus disease mentioned as excluded. In the US-other countries may not even test wildlife enough !- SARS-2 was detected in deer, there may be some unusual level of disease in deer, birds-while also there is a CoViD-pandemic in humans...Is there any study on how human pandemics influence wildlife ? 

[url][/url] or DJ-Describing long term safety issues with test animals...My point is-yes you can go for maximum safety-test for all known risks...but may miss the unknown risks...

[url][/url] or the ADA, you are entitled to accommodations if you meet the definition of disability, are qualified for the job, and work for an employer that has at least 15 employees. There is no list of medical conditions that meet the definition of disability, and each case is determined based on an individual’s specific limitations.

DJ-In many countries people with long covid may end up in poverty...certainly if that condition lasts for over a year+ ...

[url][/url] or the rising number of cases, the government has largely held off on drastic restrictions. Instead, it is counting on a booster dose campaign to stem the rising tide of infections and serious cases. Third doses of the COVID vaccine became available to those over 60 on August 1, and have since rolled out to all those over 40 as well as healthcare workers, teachers and pregnant women. As of Monday morning, close to 1.5 million Israelis have received a third dose of the vaccine.

Health officials have indicated that initial data shows the booster doses are already helping to lower the rate of serious cases...

DJ Some experts warned Delta has a R0 of between 5 and 8-to stop the spread you need high level of vaccinations AND (!!!!) a high level of restrictions...I expect lots of western countries soon will see vaccinations without restrictions will keep the R0 above 1...

[url][/url] or  DJ...please did we not learn anything so far...

[url][/url] or latest; This is the 3rd case in a week....three different provinces...seems to be a widespread problem and may be contributing to the increase in the price of eggs

DJ H5N6 the next pandemic ? So far it looks like people get it from h2h spread, yet...see also [url][/url] or latest

[url][/url] or latest...DJ-There are indications the pandemic did show up in Europe, US in 2019...With Flutracker paying more attention to deer, wildbirds getting ill is there a shift in thinking on how this pandemic started ? It is very easy, cheap, to call it "CCP-virus" (Chinese Communist Party)...blaming China, not looking at why we kept airlines transporting the virus early 2020..."the WHO should have warned us" if countries do not have their own responsibility....blame-game policy

-Dr. John Campbell two video's [url][/url] or on "groundbreaking UK research on antibodies" and [url][/url] or US hospital pressures...

UK cases this august 30 times higher then august 2020...DJ-AGAIN !!!! The basic point I do not see from Dr.J.C. is that if you want the R0 under 1 you need both vaccines AND restrictions ! The dominant policy seems to be increase vaccines-booster vaccines to LIFT restrictions and with new variants that is simply asking for worsening of this pandemic....

When I look at statistics it may be some countries may present a real decrease in cases with low level of vaccinations but with a lot of restrictions...[url][/url] or deployed soldiers to the streets of Ho Chi Minh City on Monday to help enforce a strict lockdown in the country's biggest urban area and the current epicentre of its worst coronavirus outbreak to date.

After managing to contain COVID-19 for much of last year, Vietnam has recorded a total of 348,000 infections and at least 8,277 fatalities.

Most of those cases have been recorded in Ho Chi Minh City and its surrounding industrial provinces, where the Delta variant of the virus has sent numbers soaring since late April.

DJ Again-China did keep Covid numbers down in 2020 with massive draconian restrictions...Blaming the unvaccinated while air travel is at pre-pandemic level is criminal insane !

Music; The Show Must Go On - Queen [url][/url] or even if the "show" did become one big lie...(still great music !)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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KiwiMum View Drop Down

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2021 at 2:40pm

"UK cases this august 30 times higher then august 2020...DJ-AGAIN !!!! The basic point I do not see from Dr.J.C. is that if you want the R0 under 1 you need both vaccines AND restrictions ! The dominant policy seems to be increase vaccines-booster vaccines to LIFT restrictions and with new variants that is simply asking for worsening of this pandemic.... "

The problem is that governments run the risk of serious civil disobedience if they keep insisting on restrictions. People have to be able to earn a living and to have a life. Did you see the very short bit on Dr John Campbell's channel last week where he quoted someone from government saying that they had over-touted vaccines as the golden bullet at the start of all this? That they had held them up as the way out of Covid when what they should have done was to say that they were part of the arsenal against Covid? The person said that they were paying for that mistake now but it was done in good faith to encourage everyone to get vaccinated. 

Of course they need a more measured approach. The virtual disappearance of flu last year shows how a combination of activities such as not going to work when you are sick (and not masking the symptoms with medication), frequent handwashing, general mindfulness about how you could be spreading germs, keeping your distance from vulnerable people and wearing a mask have worked together to stop it dead in it's tracks. Last winter, here in NZ, only 6 cases of flu were reported. 

The other thing of interest that I finally heard Dr Campbell admit (which I've heard said by other doctors as well) was that many of the people who died in the first wave of Covid were people who would have died anyway in the following year or two, they included the very elderly, the very frail, people with co-morbidities and fatal illnesses, and all that Covid did was to bring their death forward by a few months. We seem to have developed a mentality that death can and should be delayed at all costs and we forget that people die all the time and that's just part of life.  

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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ViQueen24 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2021 at 8:14pm

Josh, here in PA, they say that the songbird disease is waning.  In July, we were advised that people with bird feeders should take them in.  But as of a week or so ago, those who had feeders were provided with instructions via the news media as to how to clean them properly, and then we were told they could be put out again.

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2021 at 11:27pm

KiwiMum-There will be restrictions/lockdowns within a few months...simply because vaccines without restrictions with new variants will keep spreading. Israel may be a good indicator. 

Communications are essential. So far in this pandemic communications have been a total disaster. The main reason for lifting of restrictions were "save the economy"-like. Some experts claim a 10 week/3 month "good" lockdown could as good as end this With newer variants (with higher R0/spread) more, better vaccines and even longer restrictions would be needed...

By not going for restrictions now governments are waiting for ICU/hospital crises-public begging for restrictions. Here in NL ICU-staff is one major problem...One university hospital (Groningen) was hoping to have six extra ICU beds but-due to staff problems did have to close 3 ICU beds...

Another problem in NL-and in many other places-is very serious ill patients looking for help but claiming there is no Covid...potential mass spreaders...refusing even testing with low oxygen in their blood...(Most likely hospitals may treat them as Covid-cases without telling the patient/family they are going that way...damage control.)

Yes-we are getting close to 4,5 million "official" Covid deaths...proberbly around 1 million of them would have died from flu if there was a "normal flu season" this year/last year...For the statistics these people died from Covid. It is how statistics work...

In my view the most important, effective, tool keeping numbers down was in restrictions. Summer 2020 did see cases going down-if we had more restrictions/testing then maybe the pandemic could have been over...But "saving the economy in 2020" did see travel, lifting of restrictions to early...and we are in that pattern still...wave after wave...And somehow people-a lot of them-think this is wisdom...

ViQueen24-I think most "strange"diseases in animals (birds, deer, etc) most likely are NOT related to the pandemic in humans. And it is good there is a decrease of sick bird cases...The problem is diseases that widespread in human hosts, with so far most limited, controlable, spread in non humans sooner or later WILL spill over into non-human hosts...

There are proberbly statistical models for calculating the risks. Coronavirus diseases in animals have been a major problem most likely for centuries. (Science here started after 1930...). The "One Health" idea is looking at health as a matter of interest in ALL species...(It may even include plant diseases effecting humans...). 

At this moment-and it has been that way proberbly over 1 year now-daily number of people spreading the virus may be 10 million+. Most non-humans seem not to be that easy to infect..pets show up sometimes getting infected-but so far they hardly get ill themselves and the idea is they do not spread the virus...

Very limited US info on deer; 1 testing positive for SARS-2 in 2019 now sometimes over 60% of samples taken indicate SARS-2/Covid19 antibodies - with an extra test to exclude other known coronavirusses spreading in deer-is a big questionmark ? What is happening here ? 

Birds can catch coronavirusses as well...most likely have been in contact with SARS-2/Covid19...but if it does not infect them there will be no antibodies...

Still we have to increase monitoring-in my opinion-on spread of SARS-2/Covid19 in non-human hosts. Testing/sequencing capacity however is allready overstretched with human cases...This means we may detect non-human cases in a later stage...when animals start getting ill. Spread is allready going on..

-Numbers [url][/url] or ;

Global new cases 656,550-deaths 10,462...Highest number of cases has been over 900,000 in a day...deaths around 17,500 in a "both numbers still limited"...And yes testing positive-if you are vaccinated-may result in less health issues. Some countries want to switch from counting positive tests to hospital admissions as a basis for restrictions. 

An increase of cases however is an increase of spread. With vaccine (and natural) immunity waning over time the sooner you act the better. If you go for restrictions when hospitals are getting full you are acting to late...

Trends; Israel cases +22%, deaths +32% (133 last week 176 this week on a population of 9,3 million). Israel did see much higher number of deaths...but with a high level of (booster) vaccinations these numbers simply indicate more restrictions are needed to get numbers down !

And NO "living with the virus" is not an alternative-because it will result in variants doing even worse !

UK-basicly same story...high level of vaccines...not enough restrictions= cases +14%, deaths +9%...NL cases +4%, deaths +12 %, Canada cases +29%, deaths +261% indicate less restrictions because of a high level of vaccinations is not working !

The US has limited vaccinations, restrictions...a high level of spread so cases +8%, deaths +13% may sound less alarming. But if Delta is allready more widespread and still going up it should be a major worry...

Vietnam is going for massive restrictions-with very limited vaccinations...still cases going up +17%, deaths +9%. Thailand may be allready doing better cases -11%...deaths still +31% (influx into hospitals may be starting to go down...It may take several days between infection and more severe disease...Allthough Delta sometimes may see people in hospital only a few days after infection in very limited numbers...).

Again-Delta variant is dominant worldwide. R0 between 5 and 8=vaccinations + restrictions to get R0 under 1 ! (And we are not doing that !)

To compare the present pandemic crisis with another crisis [url][/url] or ; HT has a lot of non-sense, his own ideas...but the basic info is the taliban may have access to as good as ALL US military communications, tech-info on drones, able to make passes giving taliban access to US military bases worldwide etc. The taliban themselves may not have the knowledge (via training) to use it...others (Russia-Iran-China) do have that intel....See also [url][/url] or (lots of high tech, secret material did get in the wrong hands...the taliban may now have one of the most modern armies in the region...with US weapons not meant for them !)

This pandemic will worsen as long as we do not stop the spread. Opening up because 50%+ of the over 18 y/o is vaccinated-opening schools, is totally insane ! What are you waiting for ? 

We are pushing for ADE ! [url][/url] or ...

By the way I do NOT like both [url][/url] or  and [url][/url] or There is to much seismic activity, driven by climate change/reduction of land ice, methane release....not good !

-Flutrackers latest posts ; 

[url][/url] or you look across different age categories in Florida, every age category shows a declining number of cases day over day, except for school age kids, kids ages six to 19. That's the only category that's still expanding and expanding very quickly, because what's happening is they're opening schools earlier in the south. Schools opened earlier in the south against the backdrop of still a lot of prevalence. And the infection is getting into schools and it's proving to be hard to control schools. Delta is a very contagious variant. And so I think that this is a harbinger of the challenges that we're going to face nationally. As schools reopen, the schools could become focal points of community transmission and can become environments that aren't safe for children if we can't control very large outbreaks from happening in those settings...

DJ Dr.S.G stating R0 in south US is under 1-in general cases would be going down...I do not know why this Dr. believes cases will keep going down if cases in children go up and not enough (grand) parents, familymembers did get vaccinated...

[url][/url] or ; As a family physician, I spend my days dispensing advice. I mean, there’s the occasional cast, skin biopsy, or shot, but most of my patients are seeing me for medical counsel. Never have I been asked about one subject so much as the Covid-19 vaccines, and never have I seen so much doubt and confusion among a group of smart, well-educated people. Interpreting the reality of the effectiveness of these vaccines is complicated: it is waning with time, weakened against delta, unknown when coupled with prior infection, and may not be improved with a booster – but there is new, often murky, data emerging every day. Speaking the truth about the vaccines, however, should not be that hard. We have to be willing to adapt to new data, even when it does not fit neatly into prior messaging.

That’s where our institutions went astray...

DJ-As a non-expert-on the short term vaccines are doing very, very good-still close to 90% protection against severe disease for most. But when you dive deeper there are lots of things to say...You are much better of if 60%+ of community (18 y/o+) has been vaccinated then when only 20% of that group did get vaccinated... The slow speed of vaccinations is increasing the risk for variants getting more evasive...Worldwide we may see 50% of adults being fully vaccinated somewhere in 2024...that is simply much to slow ! 

A discussion on booster vaccines-or export of vaccines is the wrong discussion-we simply need MORE vaccines ! (And the west may not like it-China will be producing/exporting most of them-maybe not as effective but affordable ! More likely able to go for booster vaccines every 6 months or so...) . Excluding Non Pharma Interventions is also wrong. If the Delta R0 is between 5 and 8 vaccines maybe reduce it with 2 points (as example-so R0 ends up between 3 and 6) but then reopening everything INCREASES the R0 more...maybe 3-4 points...Non Pharma Interventions look like much more effective then vaccines...but that news does not fit in the "vaccinate out of a pandemic"-story...(rather blame first China/CCP then the unvaccinated...). 

Via a link to [url][/url] or

Under EUAs, the government pays for the product and the manufacturer has NO liability, unless you can prove willful misconduct AND the DHHS Secretary allows you to sue.  That has never happened.

But once the product (Pfizer's vaccine, today) is licensed, the liability shield under EUA disappears.  Unless there has a been a secret agreement regarding liability after approval, which is probably not legal, Pfizer will be liable for all injuries sustained by the licensed vacine.  And Pfizer's vaccine seems to be causing a record number of injuries and deaths, based on the VAERS data.

The FDA approval letter, issued today, was unusual.  It stated that current bottles of vaccine, which are not branded with the "Comirnaty" brand name, are still authorized, not approved.  Only newer bottles with "Comirnaty" labels will be approved, licensed product.

What that means is that people cannot be mandated to receive vaccine from the old bottles.  But if they do accept the non-brand vaccine, they cannot sue if injured.

If they receive the branded vaccine and are injured, they can be mandated to take it, but they can also sue the company for damages.

DJ EUA=Emergency Use Authorization...In some countries most likely the State/Country takes responsibility for vaccine safety. (Wich would be part of the talks on what prize to pay for "commercial" vaccines...Non-commercial vaccines may have a different story. Most likely China soon will be the main player here...and China may be even willing to take some responsibilities for vaccine safety...).

[url][/url] or ; With 88 per cent of the adult population receiving a first vaccine and 77 per cent receiving both doses, Britain lifted nearly all its restrictions in mid-July, allowing people to socialize, travel and return to work in offices.

While many people are still wearing masks and working from home, daily infection rates have started to rise. Daily case numbers in the last seven days are up 13.5 per cent on the week before.

On Monday, there were 31,914 new infections reported and 40 deaths.Britain has now reported 705 deaths in the last week, up 8.8 per cent...

DJ Vaccines can not stop Delta ! You also need restrictions ! NPI may be much more effective then vaccines are !

[url][/url] or ; Millions of Africans are at risk of contracting COVID-19 due to a lack of the most basic public health tools to protect themselves, including the essentials of soap and water.

These measures, known as non-pharmacological public health interventions (NPIs), and including physical distancing or isolation at home to prevent transmission, are among the simplest and least expensive methods to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.

Yet huge numbers of Africa’s roughly 1.4 billion people do not have access to these tools, researchers said.

DJ Since there is sometimes NO testing="NO cases" Africans are-again-ignored...

[url][/url] or ; Last week, a man in his early 30s reached the Sukraraj Tropical and Infectious Disease Hospital with Covid-19-like symptoms. He told the doctors that he suspected he might have been infected with the coronavirus even though his test results had come negative.

“Since his Covid test was negative, we recommend the patient get an influenza test. It was confirmed he had contracted influenza,” Dr Sher Bahadur Pun, chief of the Clinical Research Unit at the hospital, told the Post.

Pun says there has been a rise in the number of patients visiting the hospital who are infected with influenza A and B virus.

“It’s not just Covid-19 cases we have to worry about at the moment. Influenza patients are also increasing in recent times,” Pun said.

According to the World Health Organisation’s Global Influenza Surveillance, over 240 influenza cases have been reported in Nepal in the first and second weeks of August. Cases of influenza B infections have shot up significantly since the second week of August...
DJ Flu cases very likely soon will go up in much more places...(could become a "horror-mix" of people catching one virus-then less protection against the other virus...flu-virusses and corona-virusses are "two different beasts" just as likely to mix as an ant with an elephant !) 

[url][/url] or ; Based on my personal experiences, along with a strong interest in historical plagues and epidemics, I was already convinced that the growing threat of emerging infectious diseases - and the occasional pandemic - would play a large role in the history of the 21st century.


Using math skills far above my pay grade, researchers at these three universities calculated that the risks of seeing another COVID-level pandemic in any given year is roughly 2% . . . and suggest that rate may increase 3-fold over the next few decades.

DJ-Interesting read ! One of the biggest dangers is ignoring danger...In combination with wars, climate collapse "we may not make it to 2100"...but that should translate into action to decrease risks ! Solve problems ! Make a better world ! Face the problems !

[url][/url] or ;


The numerous global outbreaks and continuous reassortments of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N6/H5N8) clade viruses in birds pose a major risk to the public health. 

We investigated the tropism and innate host responses of 5 recent HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates of clades, e, and h in human airway organoids and primary human alveolar epithelial cells. 

The HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates replicated productively but with lower competence than the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, HPAI A(H5N1), and HPAI A(H5N6) isolates from humans in both or either models. 

They showed differential cellular tropism in human airway organoids; some infected all 4 major epithelial cell types: ciliated cells, club cells, goblet cells, and basal cells. 

Our results suggest zoonotic potential but low transmissibility of the HPAI A(H5N6/H5N8) avian isolates among humans. 

These viruses induced low levels of proinflammatory cytokines/chemokines, which are unlikely to contribute to the pathogenesis of severe disease...
DJ These findings indicate limited risks for some new "Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza" types...still H5N6 seems to be increasing in China but-so far-from birds into humans...

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or on the FDA approval for Pfizer making mandatory vaccines-acceptence-of this vaccine more likely. 

Will now be marketed as Comirnaty (koe-mir’-na-tee) for the prevention of COVID-19 disease in individuals 16 years of age and older Continues to be available under emergency use authorization (EUA), 12 to 15s and for a third dose in immunocompromise

DJ Mandatory vaccinations may NOT be the way to get the highest level of community vaccinated. In the UK, NL, Israel vaccination-level is (much) higher then in the US without mandatory vaccinations !

Data demonstrate increased risks, particularly within the seven days following the second dose The observed risk is higher among males under 40 years of age compared to females and older males 

Risk is highest in males 12 through 17 years of age Short-term follow-up suggest that most individuals have had resolution of symptoms 

Some individuals required intensive care support Information is not yet available about potential long-term health outcomes FDA and CDC, monitoring systems in place for early detection

DJ Vaccination=medical intervention=some risk ! Good communication and good action on post vaccination health issues will increase number of people willing to get vaccinated ! UK, NL, Israel have good basic healthcare, a social income security will not get without an income, end up bankrupt, easily in these countries if there are complications from vaccinations. In a "normal" year around 1 million US households face bankruptcy over medical costs...If there are complications after vaccinations in the US there is a much larger chance of ending up homeless and on the street...

It would be more then welcome if the US went for better (no-profit) public healthcare and a basic income (=housing) system for all. Take away the reasons why a lot of people may not take the (risks of) vaccines in stead of a blame-game ! 

In NL there is also the fear of needles in some groups..we are trying to find solutions for that-take those issues serious ! (You can now get company if you are in panic because of getting a vaccine...someone you trust. Get the vaccine in a more isolated location...less public.)

Music; Heal The World-make it a better place ! - Michael Jackson [url][/url] or  (DJ-The person Michael Jackson may have made wrong choices...this song is still woth listening !)


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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A few news items;

[url][/url] or (not available in Europe...) Pfizer expects it is very likely there will come a variant able to evade vaccine immunity...they can have a vaccine for it in 95 days...DJ-I think it is a very likely scenario...the only way to slow down such a variant (very likely with an R0 of 10+) is lockdown, very good masks, ventilation...But even then it will be a very major problem...

[url][/url] or

The paper’s authors, Chau et al, demonstrated widespread vaccine failure and transmission under tightly controlled circumstances in a hospital lockdown in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.

The scientists studied healthcare workers who were unable to leave the hospital for two weeks. The data showed that fully vaccinated workers — about two months after injection with the Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine (AZD1222) — acquired, carried and presumably transmitted the Delta variant to their vaccinated colleagues. 

They almost certainly also passed the Delta infection to susceptible unvaccinated people, including their patients. Sequencing of strains confirmed the workers transmitted SARS-CoV-2 to one another. 

This is consistent with the observations in the U.S. from Farinholt and colleagues, and congruent with comments by the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conceding COVID-19 vaccines have failed to stop transmission of SARS-CoV-2.   


The conclusions of the Chau paper support the warnings by leading medical experts that the partial, non-sterilizing immunity from the three notoriously “leaky” COVID-19 vaccines allow carriage of 251 times the viral load of SARS-CoV-2 as compared to samples from the pre-vaccination era in 2020. 

DJ-HT has spread a lot of non-sense...and blaming the vaccinated for a rise in Delta variant cases is such non-sense ! [url][/url] or is the link he provided. 

Findings: Between 11th–25th June 2021 (week 7–8 after dose 2), 69 healthcare workers were tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. 62 participated in the clinical study. 49 were (pre)symptomatic with one requiring oxygen supplementation. All recovered uneventfully. 23 complete-genome sequences were obtained. They all belonged to the Delta variant, and were phylogenetically distinct from the contemporary Delta variant sequences obtained from community transmission cases, suggestive of ongoing transmission between the workers. Viral loads of breakthrough Delta variant infection cases were 251 times higher than those of cases infected with old strains detected between March-April 2020. Time from diagnosis to PCR negative was 8–33 days (median: 21). Neutralizing antibody levels after vaccination and at diagnosis of the cases were lower than those in the matched uninfected controls. There was no correlation between vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody levels and viral loads or the development of symptoms.

Interpretation: Breakthrough Delta variant infections are associated with high viral loads, prolonged PCR positivity, and low levels of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies, explaining the transmission between the vaccinated people. Physical distancing measures remain critical to reduce SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission.

DJ As far as I know there is still disagreement on how good vaccinations protect against infections. However (mRNA)vaccines DO protect against severe illness very good (still 85-90% as far as I have the info...Israel however may allready show less protection...).

The study-Astra Zeneca/Oxford vaccine may offer less protection-the HCW-ers were in a contained area with lots of viral spread. 

But one major point has to be that IF a vaccinated person catches the virus he/she may become a super spreader without getting symptoms him/her-self...I think reopening is the problem-more then people trying to protect themselves for severe disease...

Reopening schools, no masks, social distancing etc. is asking for an increase of cases...We NEED better vaccines NOW !

-Numbers [url][/url] or with limited testing.

Global cases at 717,655 and 11,215 deaths...US has never in this pandemic had such a high ICU occupancy...Florida would be seeing around 277 deaths per day...(twitters) Yesterday US reported 171,737 new cases, 1,287 deaths...India, Iran, UK, Brazil make the top 5 in new cases...Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Russia complete a top 5 in new deaths...4,978 deaths in these top 5 countries.

Trends; cases -0,8%, deaths +0,7% worldwide. However US cases +8%, deaths +13%...UK +14/+9, Israel +22/+32...NL +4/+12

[url][/url] or WSWS puts the number of global deaths at 10-12 million so far. Also pointing at disagreement on strategy. "Living with the virus" or "Zero-Covid"...

Again I am NOT neutral, I am also not an expert but I have a brain, I can inform myself, I can think..."living with the virus", like "living with climate change" in my opinion is unrealistic..."Living with a pandemic" hoping to somehow get herd immunity, a mild variant with at least 10,000 people dying per day from the virus is unacceptable...

We live with 1,2 million people dying each year in road accidents...I also think that is crazy...Millions of people dying from air polution...why do we accept that ? "To save an economy"? Is that worth such a high prize ? 

When you look at the "Spanish Flu" pandemic most historians link that to something like 18 months in 1918-1919...The present SARS-2..moving toward 4,5 million official deaths...may soon go over that 18 months...Some other historians put the time for the Spanish Flu between 1917 and 1923...a "mild" start...spreading to the colonies in the early 20's...

Pandemics in history often did take several years-in part due to slow spread, very limited travel...Today we see "high speed massive spread" - of disease to billions of hosts all over the globe. It will get worse if we do not STOP THE SPREAD !!!

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or’s an influx of bodies like they’ve never seen, worse than the first wave of COVID-19. The area where bodies are stored prior to being cremated is stacked to the ceiling. The staff is working day and night to honor the dead.

DJ This is happening in many places and could be prevented if we did STOP THE SPREAD !!!

[url][/url] or ; We conclude that the four vaccines were effective in reducing all four outcomes in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated individuals, prior to, and during the period when the Delta variant became dominant in the country (May 2021 to the present). 

However, after censoring early vaccine recipients of Sinopharm vaccine, compared to Pfizer/BionTech recipients, individuals vaccinated with Sinopharm had a higher risk of post-vaccination infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths, especially in those > 50 years old.

 Our overall findings support the value of vaccination in preventing COVID-19 related events even with the advent of the Delta variant. 

These data support the urgent need to expand vaccination access around the world, and may serve to guide the choice of vaccines in the context of the Delta variant.

DJ Good monitoring of vaccines, vaccine escape, may result in better vaccines, vaccine-strategy. Maybe cheaper, available Chinese vaccines may show more protection after three or four vaccinations...I think it is also important to look at protection against asymptomatic infection. You do not want vaccinated hosts becoming super spreaders without symptoms themselves !

(This also goes for mass vaccination in animals ! Prevention from getting sick may not mean prevention of getting infected, spreading the virus !)

[url][/url] or of the March WHO report into how COVID-19 emerged warn that further delay makes crucial inquiry biologically difficult.

Marion Koopmans , Peter Daszak , Vladimir G. Dedkov , Dominic E. Dwyer , Elmoubasher Farag , Thea K. Fischer , David T. S. Hayman , Fabian Leendertz , Ken Maeda , **** Nguyen-Viet & John Watson

Our group was convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) in October 2020. We have been the designated independent international members of a joint WHO–China team tasked with understanding the origins of SARS-CoV-2. Our report was published this March1. It was meant to be the first step in a process that has stalled. Here we summarize the scientific process so far, and call for action to fast-track the follow-up scientific work required to identify how COVID-19 emerged, which we set out in this article.

The window of opportunity for conducting this crucial inquiry is closing fast: any delay will render some of the studies biologically impossible. Understanding the origins of a devastating pandemic is a global priority, grounded in science.

The mandate
We, all the members of the international expert team, each submitted detailed, confidential statements to the WHO on potential conflicts of interest, including funding, collaborative studies, public statements and other issues around the origins of COVID-19 that could be perceived as conflicts. After the WHO had reviewed these, team members were appointed in their individual capacity, not as representatives of their employers.

DJ It is very sad to see the world can not unite even in a study on how this pandemic started...I hope China may be willing to work with some selected foreign scientists (Russia, Iran, Pakistan, Cuba, Israel...)on further study on the early stages of this pandemic in China...I think we should keep this an "open question" now there are many indications for Covid19 in 2019 in many places outside should be an ongoing study on how this pandemic did spread without becoming a blame-game. Fact-finding...but in the present global "political" (to good a word for it...) climate factfinding may be very hard. 

[url][/url] or ; We have vaccine abundance in the United States but not test abundance. Germany has test abundance. Tests are easily available at the supermarket or the corner store and they are cheap, five tests for 3.75 euro or less than a dollar each. Billiger! In Great Britain you can get a 14 pack for free. The Canadians are also distributing packs of tests to small businesses for free to test their employees.

In the United States, the FDA has approved less than a handful of true at-home tests and, partially as a result, they are expensive at $10 to $20 per test, i.e. more than ten times as expensive as in Germany. Germany has approved over 50 of these tests including tests from American firms not approved in the United States.

DJ Our NL government did send every household two self-tests sets on request - for free ! A test is easy to get-often easy to use. I can get it at proberbly more then a hundred places in a 10km radius from where I live for between 2€-3€ per test ! Our CDC does see self-testing as a good basis for deciding to go for an official test. If I would test positive with such a self-test I would go for the official testing..(also if I would have Covid-like health issues..eventhough I do my best to limit risks.)

I find this US news shocking !!!

[url][/url] or  and [url][/url] or  among many others...DJ Also in NL some schools did close allready-why did we not learn a thing from other countries ? 

[url][/url] or latest....DJ-Endless discussion on Ivermectin. In my view the important part is "living with the virus" only is possible with better vaccines and better treatments...

[url][/url] or ; Less than a month into a COVID-19 vaccine booster drive, Israel is seeing signs of an impact on the country's high infection and severe illness rates fueled by the fast-spreading Delta variant, officials and scientists say.

Delta hit Israel in June, just as the country began to reap the benefits of one of the world's fastest vaccine roll-outs.

With an open economy and most curbs scrapped, Israel went from single-digit daily infections and zero deaths to around 7,500 daily cases last week, 600 people hospitalized in serious condition and more than 150 people dying in that week alone.

DJ Using vaccines to "reopen the economy" will bring an increase of cases. If vaccines do not stop getting infected it will not stop mutating...Infecting vaccinated will result in variants that will further increase spread in the vaccinated. As long as this is without illness the problems may be limited-however new variants are a major risk. We should try to keep the number of infections in vaccinated as low as possible to avoid further variants, further spread in unvaccinated (also for medical reasons !).

[url][/url] or latest ; Informed consent disclosure to vaccine trial subjects of risk of COVID-19 vaccines worsening clinical disease

Results of the study: COVID-19 vaccines designed to elicit neutralising antibodies may sensitise vaccine recipients to more severe disease than if they were not vaccinated. Vaccines for SARS, MERS and RSV have never been approved, and the data generated in the development and testing of these vaccines suggest a serious mechanistic concern: that vaccines designed empirically using the traditional approach (consisting of the unmodified or minimally modified coronavirus viral spike to elicit neutralising antibodies), be they composed of protein, viral vector, DNA or RNA and irrespective of delivery method, may worsen COVID-19 disease via antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). This risk is sufficiently obscured in clinical trial protocols and consent forms for ongoing COVID-19 vaccine trials that adequate patient comprehension of this risk is unlikely to occur, obviating truly informed consent by subjects in these trials.

Conclusions drawn from the study and clinical implications: The specific and significant COVID-19 risk of ADE should have been and should be prominently and independently disclosed to research subjects currently in vaccine trials, as well as those being recruited for the trials and future patients after vaccine approval, in order to meet the medical ethics standard of patient comprehension for informed consent.

DJ I did not expect vaccines to do miracles...just to offer the best possible protection in combination with other social actions (limiting contacts, masks, social distance, ventilation etc.) But I am NOT an expert ! I do have doubts on some experts and their long term they even have such a strategy ? See also;

[url][/url] or ; Even if all eligible Canadians got their shots, there would still be nearly five million Canadians who are not eligible to be vaccinated who would be at heightened risk, especially as the more transmissible Delta variant takes hold.

“We’ll do OK if we can limit the pace of community transmission, but that’s tough to do,” he said. “If we have a lot of people get infected in a short period of time – that could happen with the Delta variant – we will put pressure on our health-care system, we will stretch our health-care system, there are literally millions of people that can be infected.”...

DJ Did experts (still) not include variants in their strategy ? There will be worse variants within months ! That should not surprise any serious experts ! But somehow they "act" surprised each time it happens...Why are we-still-not doing all we can to get out of this pandemic ? The present-lack of-strategy will bring us new variants and is allready pushing towards yet another healthcrisis !

[url][/url] or We analyzed the virological characteristics of 161 vaccine breakthrough infections in a population of 24,706 vaccinated healthcare workers (HCWs), using RT-PCR and virus culture.

Results The delta variant (B.1.617.2) was identified in the majority of cases. Despite similar Ct-values, we demonstrate lower probability of infectious virus detection in respiratory samples of vaccinated HCWs with breakthrough infections compared to unvaccinated HCWs with primary SARS-CoV-2 infections. Nevertheless, infectious virus was found in 68.6% of breakthrough infections and Ct-values decreased throughout the first 3 days of illness.

Conclusions We conclude that rare vaccine breakthrough infections occur, but infectious virus shedding is reduced in these cases...

DJ So 161 out of 24,706 HCW-ers tested positive after vaccination...Of those 161 68,6% did spread the virus but less then unvaccinated...

[url][/url] or number of young people with the most prevalent form of diabetes nearly doubled in the United States from 2001 to 2017, according to a study published on Tuesday.

The findings showed that the rate of young people ages 10 to 19 with type 2 diabetes increased by 95% over the 16-year period. The estimated rate of youth under age 20 with type 1 diabetes grew by 45%.

"Rising rates of diabetes, particularly type 2 diabetes, which is preventable, has the potential to create a cascade of poor health outcomes," said Dr Giuseppina Imperatore, who oversees disease surveillance and other areas at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Diabetes Translation.

DJ Post Covid diabetes is a growing problem. Prevention should be on top of the list in healthcare ! 

Maybe a conclusion for today is vaccines-I think-still do a great job-but there are some risks; infected vaccinated-a small group-may become virus spreaders without getting ill themselves. Better-more-testing could help here. It is still not very clear how good vaccinations work against infections...some may do a decent job, others may offer limited protection. Better monitoring of vaccinated getting infected may limit further spread. 

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or Questions for the FDA; Peter Doshi, senior editor, The BMJ The FDA should demand adequate, controlled studies with long term follow up, and make data publicly available, before granting full approval to covid-19 vaccines

During May 3–July 25, 2021, the overall age-adjusted VE against new COVID-19 cases for all adults declined from 91.7% to 79.8%. During the same period, the overall age-adjusted VE against hospitalization was relatively stable, ranging from 91.9% to 95.3%. Israel sees drop in Pfizer vaccine protection against infections 

Israel sees drop in Pfizer vaccine protection against infections Vaccine effectiveness in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% since June 6 Israel says Pfizer Covid vaccine is just 39% effective as delta spreads, but still prevents severe illness 

Pfizer and BioNTech now expect to deliver 2.1 billion doses of Comirnaty worldwide this year and manufacture 3 billion. (at average price of $15.95) 2022 production capacity at 4 billion doses 

DJ No vaccine has ever been 100% safe...there are allways some risks...But vaccines should be part of a strategy-with that strategy also having a clear goal. Is the goal of the strategy switching from "getting out of the pandemic" towards "protecting against severe disease with booster vaccines"? 

[url][/url] or ZOE-Situation seems to get more complicated...Professor Tim Spector analyses the latest data from the ZOE COVID Study, which shows vaccines are struggling to contain COVID-19 in the UK. With case numbers high and rising, deaths, hospitalisations, and long COVID - although drastically reduced from previous waves - are of increasing concern. 

Looking internationally, it appears that social measures, in combination with vaccines, may hold the virus in check. 

With new evidence that vaccine protection fades quickly, the question is: can boosters be rolled out fast enough to protect our most vulnerable when we’ve already done away with even the most basic social measures?

DJ "Social measures" and vaccines-in combination to hold "the virus in check" should not have come as a surprise ! Why is it still not used ? Can boosters be rolled out fast enough ? NO ! Unless you increase social measures !!!

Why an expert is still at this point when other experts have been underlining Delta has a R0 of between 5 and 8 so you need vaccines AND !!!!! NPI is simply beyond me....

Science finds answers politics don't we go for "saving the economy" with yet another wave as a result ! Can't fix stupid !!!

I hate to see you can't fix stupid with over 10,000 deaths+ per day as a result !

Music-Carpenters-Masquerade [url][/url] or  from 1973...lyrics in the video..."We're lost in this masquerade".....

work in progress 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Two other international "events" may give a picture of "how the world" is dealing with this pandemic;

Afghanistan [url][/url] or  The goal of this war may have been stopping Russia-Iran-China cooperation and profit for M.I.C. shareholders. The attacks on Kabul airport were done with US explosives...[url][/url] or 

and "Climate Change" (collapse is change...) [url][/url] or playing with numbers to "save the economy"....

Maybe the most positive news may be [url][/url] or - If Ivermectin was very succesfull in treating Covid19/SARS-2 patients it would have been used more often...However if hospitals are overloaded, oxygen is running out you at least may try other means if the alternative is hundreds of deaths per day in Japan...

Trust is needed if governments want people to take vaccines, follow rules. And that trust may be disappearing fast with schools reopening children getting ill in high numbers..."Leaders" unable to learn anything...

-Numbers [url][/url] or ; 713,217 new cases were reported...Those cases are "positive tests" with limited numbers of testing and 18/20 months into this pandemic...10,770 deaths reported in just one day...Global trends cases -0,8% deaths +0,7% almost at 10,000 deaths per day...would make 3,650,000 per year..."living with the virus"...our "leaders" may see this as an acceptable number...

A few countries; 

US had almost 170,000 cases yesterday, 1,215 deaths reported trends cases +7%, deaths +9%

UK 38,281 cases, 140 deaths...trends cases +11%, deaths +15%

NL 2,594 cases, 8 deaths, trends cases +2%, deaths +26%

Israel 6,064 cases, 29 deaths, trends cases +15%, deaths +25%

If there is a strategy what is that strategy ? Why things have to get much worse before we see-again-restrictions-that-again-will be lifted to soon ? 

Why Delta in India was not bad enough and we repeat the same tragedy in the US, UK, NL etc. Did we not learn anything from India in april with Delta killing between 3 and 5 million people there ? 

The official number of global Covid deaths is moving towards 4,5 climate "change" politicians claim they keep temperature rise under 1,5c...while the real number may allready be over 2c...No doubt some politicians soon may claim the "Kabul air bridge"was a succes...even get a lot of votes for such lies...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or latest; Covid: Arkansas jail dosing inmates with ivermectin in spite of FDA warnings

It is unclear if patients have been told that the de-worming drug is not an approved Covid treatment

Inmates at a north-west Arkansas jail have been prescribed a medicine for treating coronavirus that is normally used to deworm livestock, despite federal health warnings to the public in exasperated tones.

...The US FDA has approved ivermectin in both people and animals for some parasitic worms and for head lice and skin conditions. The FDA has not approved its use in treating or preventing Covid-19 in humans.

“Using any treatment for Covid-19 that’s not approved or authorized by the FDA, unless part of a clinical trial, can cause serious harm,” the FDA said in a warning about the drug.

DJ Ivermectin may not be approved by the FDA, most vaccines also are not approved by the FDA...playing "games" with Pfizer (not approved under the name Pfizer-Biontech) does not help...The US has 25% of the global number of people in prison-over 2 million ! Some of them fighting fires, others now used to deal with dead bodies...."land of possibilities"...

[url][/url] or ;

Two state government websites in Georgia recently stopped posting updates about Covid-19 cases in prisons and long-term care facilities, just as the dangerous delta variant was taking hold.

Data have been disappearing recently in other states, as well.

Florida, for example, now reports Covid cases, deaths and hospitalizations once a week, instead of daily, as before.

... Public health experts are voicing concern about the pullback of Covid information. Dr. Georges Benjamin, executive director of the American Public Health Association, said the trend is “not good for government and the public” because it gives the appearance that governments are “hiding stuff.”

... Another state website, run by the Public Health Department, no longer links to a listing of the number of Covid cases among residents and staffers of nursing homes and other long-term care residences by facility.

DJ If you do not like the numbers change the numbers, if you can not control the crisis control the news...How can people trust governments on this basis ? 

[url][/url] or Florida Hospital Association is sounding the alarm, saying a survey shows 68 hospitals have less than a 48-hour supply of oxygen.

Hospitals are using three to four times as much oxygen as they were before the pandemic because more than 17,000 patients are hospitalized statewide with COVID-19.

The FHA survey, which was done Wednesday, shows 68 hospitals have less than 48 hours worth of supply, with about half of these have less than 36 hours.

DJ Should I mention hurricane season [url][/url] or

[url][/url] or ; During Delta variant–predominant weeks at study sites, 488 unvaccinated participants contributed a median of 43 days (IQR = 37–69 days; total = 24,871 days) with 19 SARS-CoV-2 infections (94.7% symptomatic); 2,352 fully vaccinated participants contributed a median of 49 days (IQR = 35–56 days; total = 119,218 days) with 24 SARS-CoV-2 infections (75.0% symptomatic). Adjusted VE during this Delta predominant period was 66% (95% CI = 26%–84%) compared with 91% (95% CI = 81%–96%) during the months preceding Delta predominance.

DJ I am NOT an expert but vaccine protection seems to be decreasing because of waning of immunity after 6 months and new variants more evading immunity...Non Pharma Intervention (+testing) did show to do much better then vaccines did ! Why wait with that till hospitals are totally out of capacity ? 

Answer-here in NL our "government" allows events that bring in matches, racing...Also "saving the economy" is often used-but after 18-20 months in this pandemic you have to be quite blind for believing that...Again-in 1521 this virus proberbly would remain a local-very limited problem. In 2021 it is a global problem because we keep spreading the virus all over the globe high speed ! 

In a pandemic you need hosts, disease and spread. Instead of STOP THE SPREAD governments do all they can to allow the spread..."because of leaky vaccines"....

[url][/url] or ; Children now make up 36% of Tennessee’s reported COVID-19 cases, marking yet another sobering milestone in the state’s battle against the highly contagious delta variant, Health Commissioner Lisa Piercey said Wednesday.

“We had 14,000 pediatric cases in the last seven days, which is a 57% increase over the week prior,” Piercey told reporters. “Right now, 36% of all of our cases in the state are among children when it’s historically been in the 10 to 15% range.”

DJ In India, Indonesia, Israel Delta showed to do much more harm if it infected children...months ago !!! Still US, UK, NL etc seem to think children in their countries are that different ? 

[url][/url] or another blow to what's left of former New York governor Andrew Cuomo's legacy, the state's new governor acknowledged on her first day in office that New York has had nearly 12,000 more deaths from COVID-19 than Cuomo told the public.

"The public deserves a clear, honest picture of what's happening. And that's whether it's good or bad, they need to know the truth. And that's how we restore confidence," Gov. Kathy Hochul said on NPR.

In its first daily update on the outbreak Tuesday evening, Hochul's office reported that nearly 55,400 people have died of the coronavirus in New York, based on death certificate data submitted to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

That's up from about 43,400 that Cuomo reported to the public as of Monday, his last day in office.

DJ Conservative global excess deaths numbers may hint at 10-12 million global Covid deaths...If you would go for "pandemic deaths" (including people that did not die from covid but would be alive if there was no pandemic, dying from not getting treatment for cancer, heartdisease etc) I think you could get to 15-20 million deaths ? 

When you look at Spanish Flu numbers the lowest is 20 million-the highest put it at 100 million deaths...also the timing may be different. Small timing is 1918-19, wider time range looks at 1917-1923...

[url][/url] or ; More than 100,000 Americans are currently hospitalized with COVID-19, a level not seen since Jan 30, when the pandemic reached its peak in the United States, the Washington Post reports.
Hospitalizations are highest across the South, where unvaccinated communities especially vulnerable to the Delta (B1617.2) variant have seen a surge of virus activity since the July 4 weekend, a time that was supposed to mark the country’s independence from the virus. Florida has the most hospitalizations in the country, with 17,000, followed by Texas, with 14,000.


Half of American workers are in favor of vaccine requirements at their workplaces, according to a new Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. Another half are in favor of mask mandates when working in person.
Black and Hispanic poll respondents were more likely to support mask requirements than their White counterparts, and 53% of Black and Hispanic workers support vaccine mandates at their workplaces, as do 44% of White workers.


CDC warns of ivermectin misuse

Poison control centers across the nation have received an uptick in calls about ivermectin, an antiparasitic drug used in livestock that some have promoted as a treatment for COVID-19, USA Today reports. Ivermectin has not been found to prevent or treat COVID-19, but misinformation about the drug has spread on the Internet.
Today, the CDC released a Health Alert Network (HAN) advisory, noting that poison control centers across the country received a threefold increase in calls about human exposures to ivermectin in January 2021 compared with the pre-pandemic baseline. In July, the calls increased fivefold from baseline.
“These reports are also associated with increased frequency of adverse effects and emergency department/hospital visits,” the CDC said.

DJ It is the end of summer but global pandemic statistics are at high winter level allready ! 

People are told vaccines are "the way out of the pandemic". I wish it worked that way ! Vaccines AND NPI could have done that job...but it may be to late for that now ! Many people did return from vacation, schools soon will have reopened...most likely both cases and deaths will go for new record highs ! So far 900,000 cases per day, 17,500 deaths per day have been the highest...

If hospitals are overloaded and you have symptoms I understand you may look at least some form of treatment. People did misuse medication all over history. There may be some easy to get medications, treatments...but if you have serious healthissues get medical advice ! (And use basic thinking-if you want to go for medication used on an animal twice your size don't overdose !)[/url] or ; As they both battle the highly transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant, COVID-19 cases in Australia and New Zealand reached new daily highs.
In other developments, Vietnam is sending troops to help with a surge in one of its main manufacturing hubs, and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) announced steps to ramp up vaccine production in Latin America.

DJ Strategies that worked before the Delta variant are not enough to stop Delta...Australia, New Zealand, Vietnam going for zero-Covid but may need months to get there...(Australia planning to reopen borders with 80% of adults vaccinated soon will find out they are better of with borders closed !)

[url][/url] or report a case of natural infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmitted from an owner to a pet ferret in the same household in Slovenia. The ferret had onset of gastroenteritis with severe dehydration. Whole-genome sequencing of the viruses isolated from the owner and ferret revealed a 2-nt difference.

DJ Ferrets are close to mink...very easy to catch Covid...A "2-nt difference" ??? [url][/url] or ; On November 20, 2020, a 5-year-old neutered male domestic ferret had signs of acute gastroenteritis, including apathy, anorexia, vomiting, and profuse mucous diarrhea. Another ferret in the same household appeared healthy.


The comparison of both sequences showed ≈100% identity, differing by 2 nucleotides (position/owner/ferret: 2,097/G/T; 22,832/C/A).

DJ Two mutations in one transfer from human to ferret in pre-Delta times...It must be much more widespread with more mutations...

Related [url][/url] or ; We investigated SARS-CoV-2 infection in 91 mink from a farm in northern Poland. Using reverse transcription PCR, antigen detection, and next-generation sequencing, we confirmed that 15 animals were positive for SARS-CoV-2. 

We verified this finding by sequencing full viral genomes and confirmed a virus variant that has sporadic mutations through the full genome sequence in the spike protein (G75V and C1247F). 

We were unable to find other SARS-CoV-2 sequences simultaneously containing these 2 mutations. Country-scale monitoring by veterinary inspection should be implemented to detect SARS-CoV-2 in other mink farms.

DJ Spread of Covid19/SARS-2 in non-human hosts may go undetected till it reaches human hosts again. It will result in new variants....It must be happening in high numbers all over the globe..we just are not looking at it ! Where there are minks there are mice, rats, and therefor cats...They also may catch Covid19/SARS-2 quite easy...

[url][/url] or Wastewater surveillance was proposed as an epidemiological tool to define the prevalence and evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. However, most implemented SARS-CoV-2 wastewater surveillance projects were based on qPCR measurement of virus titers and did not address the mutational spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the population.
Methods: We have implemented a nanopore RNA sequencing monitoring system in the city of Nice (France, 550,000 inhabitants). Between October 2020 and March 2021, we monthly analyzed the SARS-CoV-2 variants in 113 wastewater samples collected in the main wastewater treatment plant and 20 neighborhoods.
Findings: We initially detected the lineages predominant in Europe at the end of 2020 (B.1.160, B.1.177, B.1.367, B.1.474, and B.1.221). In January, a localized emergence of a variant (Spike:A522S) of the B.1.1.7 lineage occurred in one neighborhood. It rapidly spread and became dominant all over the city. Other variants of concern (B.1.351, P.1) were also detected in some neighborhoods, but at low frequency. Comparison with individual clinical samples collected during the same week showed that wastewater sequencing correctly identified the same lineages as those found in COVID-19 patients.
Interpretation: Wastewater sequencing allowed to document the diversity of SARS-CoV-2 sequences within the different neighborhoods of the city of Nice. Our results illustrate how sequencing of sewage samples can be used to track pathogen sequence diversity in the current pandemics and in future infectious disease outbreaks.

DJ Waste water can be used not only to see if Covid is spreading, but also to see if variants are showing up...most of the time we are not using this early warning system....

[url][/url] or Ingram was fully vaccinated when she tested positive for COVID-19 early this month. The 37-year-old’s fever had spiked to 103 and her breath was coming in ragged bursts when an ambulance rushed her to an emergency room in Pasco, Washington, on Aug. 10. For three hours she was given oxygen and intravenous steroids, but she was ultimately sent home without being admitted.

Seven people in her house have now tested positive. Five were fully vaccinated and two of the children are too young to get a vaccine...

DJ "Vaccine religion"..."experts" simply do not want to know if vaccines do not the expected job !

[url][/url] or this study, we employed SARS-CoV-2 mutants lacking the S protein cleavage site and characterized their growth and pathogenicity using hamsters, a laboratory animal model for SARS-CoV-2 infection. These mutants exerted low pathogenicity but induced sufficient levels of neutralizing antibodies in hamsters, which protected hamsters from rechallenge with pathogenic clinical SARS-CoV-2 strains. These virus mutants may be used as protective immunogens against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DJ Maybe some good news ? 

My conclusion for today is; While governments worldwide are pushing for vaccines numbers indicate vaccines are not doing as good as was hoped. DJ-Vaccinations did buy time...Time wasted on reopenings NOT on finding a better strategy ! 

I still think-for now-getting vaccinated may be the best option. But we may be getting close to the point that vaccine risks are getting larger then the protection they offer. 

Like in climate collapse "playing with numbers" only will have limited effect. There is a better alternative-NPI ! Lockdowns ! They are on their way anyhow-the sooner you start with it the more effect they have. But "governments" now are not only in denial of pandemic risks but also do not want to be realistic on vaccines ! You can not vaccinate yourself out of a pandemic !!!

Again Delta has a R0 of between 5 and 8 you would need both vaccines AND NPI/restrictions...Most countries went for vaccinations to give up on we are seeing global increase of cases (in reality) ...

Wishfull thinking is NOT science ! Experts following political orders are no longer doing their job !  Just like in climate change denial is NOT an answer...the crises are only getting worse !

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or Vaccinated 29,2 times less likely to end up in hospital...

DJ-FOR NOW !!!! Vaccination still may offer protection but the level of protection is going down. Due to limited vaccine protection (the older you get the less effective !) and new variants. 

If we want to end this pandemic-and I am asking if that is the goal !-we needed vaccines AND NPI ! But the goal seems to be living with a pandemic to save the economy ! And that is insane !

Music; I Never Promised You A Rosegarden - Lynn Anderson - 1973 [url][/url] or 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 26 2021 at 11:33pm

DJ Waste water can be used not only to see if Covid is spreading, but also to see if variants are showing up...most of the time we are not using this early warning system.... 

They use waste water testing here. In fact they've found a rogue case in Warkworth because it's showing up in the waste water. The person must be asymptomatic and just not realise that they have it.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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KiwiMum-It is amazing what can be found in waste water...drug use, pregnancies, some organ faillures, diabetes etc...If prevention would be the basis of healthcare costss would be lower, people be healthier...Preventative healthcare NOT being the norm is one of the things I fail to understand...In NL cars get better checks then a lot of people !


"Facing problems is the start of solving problems..." (Well that is how I see it at least...)

The Afghan-crisis, on top of not getting a grip on this pandemic, climate/earthquake disasters on their way can "shake" a political system. Blind capitalism-seeing every disaster as a bussiness oppertunity to make profit-again in my opinion-has become a major problem !

Some companies are getting very rich from this pandemic. "Green Choices" to decrease fossil fuel but go on with wasting energy, water, are not realistic solutions. Here in NL number of cars do increase...public transport is decreasing...even suburbia now often is facing car/traffic problems...a "liberal=denialism government" simply will not solve any problem unless companies can make profit out of it...

BPEarthwatch [url][/url] or Hurricane "Ida" may even reach cat 5-is expected to get 140 mph winds-15 feet flooding...(International that is 224 km/h wind and 4,5 meter flood !). BPEarthwatch yesterday also had solar flares...linking it with increased risk of earthquakes when solar winds reaches the Earth magnetic field. 

I-again am not an expert but [url][/url] or "Julian", "Kate" and "Larry" may allready be forming in the Atlantic Ocean...even "Mindy" could show up early september !

I do NOT like the global [url][/url] or picture;

1.There is a link between hurricane water movement and seismic activity

2.South Atlantic South Sandwich Island region quakes keeps going on with M5+ quakes

3.Solar wind may be a factor

4.Several major quakes should be expected, are overdue...

Many languages have saying like "disasters never are single events" . Delta getting out of control due to failing governments in combination with climate collapse related earthquakes [url][/url] or (Greenland landice may 3 km thick-melting of all that ice would lift that part of Greenland 1 km ! = lots of seismic activity !) may be "very bad news" !

-Numbers on the pandemic [url][/url] or ;

global reported cases 713,802, global deaths 9,966. The US (under)reporting 190,000+ cases, 1,304 deaths...The US is not the only country repeating the April-India-Delta crisis....but this is becoming so sad...

Coming monday the middle part of NL schools will be reopening, last monday the north did reopen. Monday september 6 all schools are supposed to be masks, no social distancing, kids not vaccinated...NL experts seem to think NL children are different than children in India, Indonesia, Israel, US, Scotland...they all see massive numbers of children getting (very) ill...But no reason NOT to reopen schools in NL...frustrating is not the right word...criminal comes more close...

trends [url][/url] or cases -0,3%, deaths +0,1% worldwide...68,794 deaths reported last week, worldwide...

New Zealand cases going up 509% = last week 54, this week 329...on a population of just over 5 million...

Denmark cases +0,6%, deaths still going up 160% from 5 to 13 this week may be reopening november 1 with 80% of the 12 y/o+ population vaccinated (not mandatory...but because they believed it was a better choice !!! Even in China vaccinations may be not mandatory...with a lot of people not going for vaccination !)

[url][/url] or  DJ-There is disagreement between experts but I think most sense is in; Delta R0 of between 5 and 8 = vaccinations AND restrictions !

On new variants I was expecting to see more news...a lot of infections=a lot of mutations=new variants...On the other hand; Delta may be hard to beat ! It could be there allready is a shift from Delta to Delta+...The info on that Delta+ may hint that naming it Delta with a + could have been a mistake. There turn out to be much more mutations/differences...[url][/url] or may be an underestimate of how different Delta+ is...(AY.1, AY.2 and AY.3 subtypes to make it even more complicated...).

I think there will be much more variants but with much less chances to spread for those variants. Untill a new variant shows up-able to "break" the Delta"blockade" Delta (+?) will remain dominant. Once that new variant manages to spread it may be able to "go wild" even in vaccinated...

-Flutrackers a.o. latest posts;

[url][/url] or

The Covid-19 vaccines prevent hospitalization and ICU admission at the same rate regardless if the recipient is infected with the Delta variant of the coronavirus or the Alpha variant, the RIVM says on the basis of research using Dutch vaccination and hospital figures. The chance of being admitted to a hospital as a fully vaccinated person after infection is twenty times lower than for a non-vaccinated person. The chance of ending up in an intensive care unit is 33 times smaller when fully vaccinated.

On average, the Covid-19 vaccines given in the Netherlands prevent a person from requiring hospitalization 95 percent of the time, and 97 percent of the time against ICU admission, when someone was infected with the Delta variant, according to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM). In the Netherlands, most jabs were given using the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine.

DJ Most vaccinations in NL are less then 6 months "old" so they would offer protection. The "old and vulnarable" also often limit exposure...they are not going to festivals, matches etc. So the NL finding may show the NL situation for now ! 

[url][/url] or

Education in the Netherlands will fully reopen on Monday, yet only 65 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds have had their first Covid-19 vaccine dose and for 12- to 17-year-olds that figure rests at half.

Around 85 percent of people between the ages of 12- to 24-year-olds said they want to get vaccinated. “If that does not happen, it could play a very important, decisive role in the further course of the epidemic”, Wallinga said.

“There is a certain stability in the Netherlands but there is an underlying dynamic that will determine the developments in the upcoming period”, Van Dissel said.

Despite the stability in the Netherlands, there are still many countries worldwide that have low vaccination rates. “Covid-19 is absolutely not under control on a global level”, the CIb director said.

Coronavirus infections from abroad can spill over in the Netherlands. Around 20 percent of positive coronavirus tests in the past week were the origin was known came from abroad. “The Netherlands is a European hub and actually a kind of city-state, given the population density and the built environment”, Van Dissel pointed out. That means that infections can quickly spread across the country.

DJ Ventilation at schools is a major concern. Average NL schools are 40 years old...some of them +80 years...With colder weather on its way allready keeping windows open is less likely...Fear of needles is a major factor in young age groups. One has to take those fears serious (always take people serious !) and find ways to deal with those fears. 

[url][/url] or ordinary national and provincial highways in Jiangsu are temporarily closed in one or two directions

DJ Most likely linked to China trying to limit the spread of Delta-variants. China reporting 0 deaths cases going down from last week 319 to this week 186 -42% (with draconian policies...but keeping this pandemic going may be much worse !).

[url][/url] or storm is ahead of schedule,” Gov. Edwards said quoting one official.

The governor advised Louisiana residents to be “where you need to be” to ride out the storm by late Saturday, Aug. 27.

An official with the National Weather Service warned Hurricane Ida will be “stronger than Hurricane Laura” and will be a “life altering event.”

DJ External factors worsening the pandemic.

[url][/url] or ; Half of US 12- to 17-year-olds have received their first COVID-19 vaccine dose, and their vaccination rate is rising higher than any other age-group, said White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Jeff Zients during a White House briefing today.
Despite the milestone, concerns about the school year continue as the Delta variant (B1617.2) rips through the country: At the same briefing, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, said yesterday's 7-day averages showed that COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have gone up 2.8%, 5.7%, and 11.0%, respectively.
The United States reported 161,331 new COVID-19 cases and 1,292 deaths yesterday, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker. The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows that 51.9% of Americans are fully vaccinated and that 61.1% have received at least one dose.

CDC school guidelines will not change

Pediatric COVID-19 cases were one of the main topics at the White House briefing, and Walensky said the CDC was not looking at updating its pre-Delta school guidelines at this time.
While there has been a rise in COVID-19 cases in school-age children, Walensky said the highest surges are in schools that have not followed the current guidelines and that data show schools are more a reflection of the community landscape rather than propagator of more cases.


Walensky also fielded questions about potential increases in pediatric COVID-19 hospitalization rates.
"What we're seeing here is increasing cases across the country and therefore increasing cases in hospitalizations of all age demographics," she said. "But because the absolute number of cases is so high, the absolute number of children that are coming into hospitals is high."
Alabama, for instance, has seen a sharp rise in pediatric cases, with 5,571 cases in children ages 5 to 17 years last week, compared with 702 during the same week last year, according to USA Today. State vaccinations have been increasing in the past weeks, but Springfield, Missouri, News-Leader data show the proportion of the population that is fully vaccinated is only now surpassing 37%.
As Sean O'Leary, MD, MPH, vice chair of the American Academy of Pediatrics' Committee on Infectious Diseases, told Time yesterday, "Kids don't tend to drive what's going on; they tend to reflect what's going on in the surrounding community."
He added that while some exceptions may exist, pediatric hospitalizations are greatest in states with the lowest vaccine coverage.

DJ The major problem in southern US and limited other places can be people claiming there is no Covid, no pandemic...In NL a small group of people-a lot of them ending up in hospital-also deny Covid. Hospitals have problems with family members not sticking to rules...

[url][/url] or half of 1,276 adult COVID-19 survivors in Wuhan, China, still had at least one symptom—with a third still reporting shortness of breath—a year after their release from the hospital, finds a single-center study yesterday in The Lancet.
Led by researchers at Capital Medical University in Beijing, the study involved evaluating and interviewing COVID-19 survivors 6 and 12 months after symptom onset (Jan 7 to May 29, 2020).
Median age was 59 years, 53% were men, and median follow-up time was 185 days for the first visit and 349 for the second. A matched control group included 3,383 adults never infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Heart, breathing, mental health problems

At 6 months, 68% of patients still had at least one persistent COVID-19 symptom (eg, sleep problems, heart palpitations, joint pain, chest pain), falling to 49% at 12 months. But the proportion of patients with shortness of breath rose slightly over that period, from 26% to 30%.
Also, more patients reported anxiety or depression at 12 months than at 6 months (26% vs 23%)

DJ The social impact of this ongoing impact now will show. People asking questions on why they did get sick, loved ones died, government (in)action. The "seeds of fury start blooming"...This pandemic is the outcome of "liberal" policies killing millions ! 

Do we get a 1776/1789 (US/French revolution) repeat ? No. We may see worse than "1984" police state...

[url][/url] or ; The pace of COVID-19 activity in Africa has stabilized, but at a very high level, amid fresh calls to coordinate global efforts to funnel more of the world's vaccine supplies to African countries, which have among the world's lowest immunization coverage.


More global headlines

  • India's daily cases have risen sharply over the past few days, with Kerala and Maharashtra states as the main hot spots, according to Reuters. The country's government has asked the two states to impose night curfews to drive down cases. The rise in Kerala, which accounted for nearly 60% of India's latest cases, recently celebrated Onam, an annual Hindu festival that features cultural events and family gatherings.
  • A WHO document seen by Reuters said the agency's pandemic preparedness program has plans to distribute 100 million doses of China's Sinovac and Sinopharm vaccine by the end of September as part of COVAX efforts, mainly to Africa and Asia.
  • New Zealand again reported a record daily number of COVID-19 cases, with 70 new infections reported, according to the New Zealand Herald.
  • Myanmar signaled that it will vaccinate Muslim Rohingya people against COVID-19, Reuters reported, citing a spokesman for the country's military junta. Thousands of Rohingya, a persecuted group, have fled to neighboring Bangladesh, where officials had earlier launched vaccination in the Cox's Bazar refugee area.

DJ Since Africa does not have a lot of vaccines other steps may limit the spread of the virus ! Non Pharma Intervention is much more effective then vaccines ! But a combination of both is needed if "societies want limited reopening". Problem is vaccines are used as an excuse for "freedom" up more then is gained by vaccinations...

[url][/url] or ; The presence of non-SARS-CoV-2, including these influenza A genes, has been reported earlier, and this data was also used in our current study for comparison and analysis. The surprising finding was the HA segment 4 gene cloned in an expression vector, pVAX1, confirming previously identified vector sequences3,4. A WIV publication documented that DNA vaccines containing H7N9 HA genes were being developed and tested in mice in WIV at the same time as the outbreak (2019-2020). In addition, all five samples showed a relatively high proportion of Spodoptera frugiperda rhabdovirus (13-83% of SARS-CoV-2 reads). Additionally, the samples also showed the presence of other low-abundance, high homology (LAHH) sequences, mostly of viral origin and not expected to be associated with human BALF specimens. These LAHH sequences could be contaminants, and we identified these viruses as part of previously published research at the WIV, providing a genomic record of prior work. The ability to identify previously performed research in the meta-transcriptome raw data reads from a laboratory provides a new forensic tool. The presence of cloned H7N9 HA gene segment in the transcriptome data of the early five patients processed in the WIV should be treated as an important forensic clue and warrants a full investigation. The most important question considering the plausible hypothesis that the SARS-CoV-2 could have escaped due to a lab accident would be: what does the co-occurrence of vectorized H7N9 sequences with SARS-CoV2 sequences in the early COVID-19 patients suggests?

DJ As far as I know coronavirus disease in non human hosts has been a major problem in recent history. Most likely lots of universities doing all kind of studies on CoViD in animals. No idea how safe that is...(So did this pandemic start in a Wuhan-lab ? I do not think that is very likely...if it did it may be hard to find out. Say mice did get infected in the lab, escaped, did spread it to other non-human hosts...Lab-escape may be hard to detect. Even 99,99% safety leaves some risks.)

[url][/url] or nationwide study carried out in 76 of the 77 districts of the country, except for Manang, in July, with technical as well as financial support from the World Health Organisation, has found that the majority of the population in densely populated cities across the country has antibodies for the coronavirus.

“A preliminary report of the study shows that over 50 percent of the country’s population was found to have antibodies against the coronavirus,” an official at the Health Ministry told the Post on condition of anonymity.

Antibodies are found in people who are already infected with the coronavirus or have been vaccinated.

DJ Delta+ is the "Nepal" variant...Earlier in Manaus-Brazil "natural immunity" did not prevent another variant wave 9 months later...

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or on US intel on how this pandemic started; unclear story...DJ-I think US "confrontation policy" is a major problem. China may be willing to give a lot of info...proberbly allready did give a lot of info in Chinese ! 

There are lots of questions on Covid19 in 2019. Not only in China but worldwide...Finding out how it started may be very complicated if not-yet-impossible. We did find out on what caused the Spanish Flu over 50 years later (with dead Flu victum bodies in frozen Alaska earth were investigated and A-H1N1 was detected). 

There may be more blood, sewage etc samples around the globe providing more info. Maybe some (dead) animals also may give some info...

The "blame-game" does not help ! Blaming unvaccinated for an explosion in US cases is false ! Lifting mask-mandates, starting international air travel, in fact acting as if the pandemic was history may be the main reason why Delta is exploding !

Again most countries do NOT have mandatory vaccinations and see often very high level of vaccinations (often 80%+ in adults or 12 y/o+). Here in NL 90%+ of the 12 y/o+ age group is willing to get vaccinated ! But the idea that even 90%+ of 12y/o+ getting vaccinated is enough to end this pandemic-without restrictions-is enough is the wrong idea !

-Music; Dusty Springfield - The Summer Is Over [url][/url] or lyrics;

The night runs away with the day 

The grass that was green is now hay 

The world goes around without even a sound 

And it looks like the summer is over 

The rains tumble down in the sky 

Young swallows have learned how to fly 

The leaves that were green are no longer so green 

And it looks like the summer is over 

The sun and the moon take turns in the sky 

The days drift on by too soon 

The meadows are kissed by a cool autumn mist 

Far away now is June 

The birds fly away to the sun 

The leaves touch the ground one by one 

The breeze hurries by without even goodbye 

And it looks like the summer is over 

The sun and the moon take turns in the sky 

The days drift on by too soon 

The meadows are kissed by a cool autumn mist

 Far away now is June 

The birds fly away to the sun 

The leaves touch the ground one by one 

The breeze hurries by without even goodbye 

And it looks like the summer is over 

And it looks like the summer is over

Love those lyrics !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 28 2021 at 10:30pm


[url][/url] or

Hospitals in New Orleans are bracing for public health emergencies on two fronts as Hurricane Ida threatens to strike at the same time as Louisiana is experiencing a surge in coronavirus cases.

New Orleans is in the midst of a “severe outbreak” with a seven-day average of 220 new infections, according to the city’s Covid-19 dashboard. Across the state, more than 3,400 new cases were confirmed as of Friday, according to the Louisiana Department of Health. At least 2,684 people are hospitalized in Louisiana with Covid-19.

So thousends of Covid patients with even more staff stay in area's that see most other people evacuate because of hurricane "Ida".

[url][/url] or

As of 2:00 PM EDT --

National Hurricane Center reports declare Ida has officially become a Category 2 hurricane.   Not 24 hours ago, she wasn't even a Tropical Storm, but catapulted in strength right thru to Category 1 hurricane within hours.  Now she's a Cat-2 and forecasters are saying they believe she will be a Cat-4 at landfall between Morgan City and Houma, Louisiana, tomorrow, Sunday, in the afternoon.

Ida is forecast to hit the industrial corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans, site of three key ports, petrochemical sites, and a nuclear power plant, the Waterford 3 Nuclear Generating Station.

DJ The evacuation itself will be a mass spread event. Thousends of patients unable to get out (certainly those NOT in hospitals but at home, also long-CoViD...) not only face massive waves, amounts of rain, flooding but also risks of chemical polution. 

[url][/url] or may be 16 years ago today-the perspectives for Ida are allready much worse ! 

[url][/url] or "Julian" and "Kate" are allready out in the Atlantic (at this moment still named "ten" and "eleven") but seem to be of limited risk. "Larry" is just west of Africa in formation...

See also [url][/url] or 

Again [url][/url] or I do NOT like the seismic outlook ! In the Atlantic tens of millions of kilo's of water or on the storm activated move while we allready are in a time of seismic unrest, extreme ice melt in Greenland (releasing pressure on the land under that ice-land trying to move up=seismic pressure...).

This pandemic, hurricanes, earth/ice quakes are all related to climate change and we are not doing much to stop it...

-Numbers [url][/url] or are limited-reflecting not enough weekend testing...[url][/url] or If global cases would be decreasing -2%, deaths -0,5% that would be welcome news...but I (DJ) do not believe these numbers...

-Flutrackers latest;

[url][/url] or Alabama, one of the hardest-hit states in the latest surge, overall hospitalization numbers continue to climb, driving health officials to use mobile trailers to house bodies because COVID-19 deaths are soaring, state health officer Dr. Scott Harris said Friday.

... The state activated two of its four refrigerated trailers for the first time since the pandemic began, Harris said, in Mobile and Baldwin counties this week.

DJ Several US states are running at limits in dealing with the bodies of those who died. But also a.o. Japan may be facing a crisis.

[url][/url] or released NSW Health data confirms the far western NSW town of Wilcannia has the highest rate of COVID-19 transmission in the state.

It comes as a local health spokesperson confirms the town has one ventilator.

One-in-15 people in the remote, predominantly Indigenous town of Wilcannia has COVID-19, a rate five times higher than Sydney's worst hotspot.

... "Seventy-five per cent of the over 400 cases out there are Aboriginal people. Forty per cent of those people are children under the age of 15."

Locals have voiced concerns Wilcannia's food supplies are running low and its local health providers are ill-equipped to deal with the outbreak.

Meat is sold out and the town's sole supermarket - closed for deep cleaning earlier this week ...

DJ Hospitals may be the first to break down in this kind of health-crisis, logistics and security could be next...It is sad to see Australia and New Zealand are now also in crisis. 

[url][/url] or ; This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.

DJ Retrospective studies get more value if you also (can) use them to see what is coming...Alfa may have had a R0 of 4 (I have to look for a link for that...[url][/url] or have Alfa-R0 at 4-5, Delta they put at 8), Delta is seen as R0 of 5 and 8. 

The BBC link ;

"This virus has surprised us a lot. It is beyond anything we feared," said Dr Aris Katzourakis, who studies viral evolution at the University of Oxford. "The fact it has happened twice in 18 months, two lineages (Alpha and then Delta) each 50% more transmissible is a phenomenal amount of change."

It's "foolish", he thinks, to attempt to put a number on how high it could go, but he can easily see further jumps in transmission over the next couple of years. Other viruses have far higher R0s and the record holder, measles, can cause explosive outbreaks.

"There is still space for it to move higher," said Prof Barclay. "Measles is between 14 and 30 depending on who you ask, I don't know how it's going to play out."


There are many tricks the virus could employ to get better at spreading, such as:

  • improving how it opens the doorway to our body's cells
  • surviving longer in the air
  • increasing the viral load so patients breathe or cough out more viruses
  • changing when in the course of an infection it spreads to another person

One way the Alpha variant became more transmissible was by getting better at sneaking past the intruder alarm - called the interferon response - inside our body's cells. But this does not mean that by the time we work through the Greek alphabet of variants and reach Omega that we'll end up with an unstoppable beast.

"Ultimately there are limits and there isn't a super-ultimate virus that has every bad combination of mutations," said Dr Katzourakis.

DJ The next variant-most likely allready in early stages of spread-will have a R0 of 12...Most likely will be dominant before the end of this year. And also-most likely-vaccines will offer "limited" protection against it. 

The point with vaccines is YES they are very good at prevention of severe disease maybe even up to 8 months-a year.. ! And that is very welcome !!!! They may prevent 50% of the infections...resulting in even more asymptomatic spread. Before Delta the US-CDC came with 59% of the spread being a/pre-symptomatic...maybe due to vaccines now 80% of the spread may be asymptomatic. 

This means a vaccinated person may get infected and spread the virus without getting symptoms him/her-self. (S)He could infect other vaccinated-they also may not get symptoms-but the virus keeps spreading, mutating...

The "goal" of the virus is to "survive" therefor it needs to spread in hosts...Vaccines did buy us time...reopening society did more then undo the gains we did get from vaccinations...that is why we are now in another wave (so do not "blame" unvaccinated but governments reopening to "save the economy" again...repeating mistakes !). 

So far it looks like CoViD (Corona Viral Disease) (20)19 is not spreading in "wild animals" on a major scale. That is good news. Spread in non-human hosts will speed up even more variants (via mutations and recombination). 

[url][/url] or ; Although first detected in December 2019, COVID-19 was inferred to be present in Hubei province, China, for about a month before (1). Where did this new human disease come from? To understand the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary to go back to 2002. At that time a novel re- spiratory coronavirus appeared in Foshan, Guangdong province, China, and spread to 29 countries (2). Altogether ~8000 people were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) before public health measures controlled its spread in 2003.

 The zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV was subsequently linked to live animals available at markets. Further sporadic spill- over events of SARS-CoV from animals took place in Guangzhou, Guangdong, and some researchers working with cultured virus were infected in laboratory accidents (3), but ultimately SARS-CoV was removed from the human population. Trading of susceptible host animals is an important common theme in the emergence of SARS and COVID-19.

DJ Both SARS-1 and MERS had animals at the start...with limited travel the chances for spread may have been a major factor. SARS-2 became this pandemic because the Covid19 did get free global travel high speed worldwide for much to long...Even Delta was imported from India in april this year by many countries ! 

Worse-since airtravel in some places is at present at above prepandemic level, a lot of people do their best to catch the virus and take it home from vacation a new variant with R0 of around 12 must be spreading allready ! Spread is the big factor in this pandemic triangle (with disease and host the other two factors...we did ALL WE COULD !!!! to get the variants to the hosts !!!).

[url][/url] or ;


The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has reignited global interest in animal coronaviruses and their potential for human transmission. While bats are thought to be the wildlife reservoir of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, the widespread human coronavirus OC43 is thought to have originated in rodents. We sampled 297 rodents and shrews representing eight species in three municipalities of southern China. We report coronavirus prevalence of 23.3% and 0.7% in Guangzhou and Guilin, respectively, with samples from urban areas having significantly higher coronavirus prevalence than those from rural areas. We obtained three coronavirus genome sequences from Rattus norvegicus, including a Betacoronavirus RCoV-GCCDC3, an Alphacoronavirus RCoV-GCCDC5 and a novel Betacoronavirus RCoV-GCCDC4. Recombination analysis suggests that there was a potential recombinant event involving RCoV-GCCDC4, Murine hepatitis virus and Longquan Rl rat coronavirus. Furthermore, we uncovered a polybasic cleavage site RARR in the spike (S) protein of RCoV-GCCDC4, which is dominant in RCoV. These findings provide further information on the potential for inter-species transmission of coronaviruses and demonstrate the value of a One Health approach to virus discovery.

Surveillance of viruses among rodents within rural and urban areas of South China identified three rodent coronaviruses RCoV-GCCDC3, 4 and 5, one of which was identified as a novel potentially recombinant coronavirus with a polybasic cleavage site in the spike (S) protein. Through reverse transcription PCR screening of coronaviruses, we found that coronavirus prevalence in urban areas is much higher than that in rural areas. Subsequently, we obtained three coronavirus genome sequences by deep sequencing. After different method-based analyses, we found that RCoV-GCCDC4 was a novel potentially recombinant coronavirus with a polybasic cleavage site in S protein, dominant in RCoV. This newly identified coronavirus RCoV-GCCDC4 with its potentially recombinant genome and polybasic cleavage site provides a new insight into the evolution of coronaviruses. Furthermore, our results provide further information on the potential for inter-species transmission of coronaviruses and demonstrate the necessity of a One Health approach for zoonotic disease surveillance.

DJ Coronavirusses have been around all sort of species for thousends of years. It is believed in 1880 or 1890 a sort of "flu" may have been a coronavirus disease in humans...we simply did not know it...("flu" comes from "inFLUence" like mal-aria means bad air...). 

Somehow "we" believed animals could have all kinds of disease and it would not reach "us" humans...we were wrong in that !

[url][/url] or .............DJ. Should I explode out of anger ? "US intel" did NOT stop the Afghan crisis ! (They had the intel, did bring it to the US government that did nothing with it !) With so much corona virus diseases in animals, SARS-1 and MERS clear animal links why would SARS-2 need to escape from a Wuhan lab ? Yes-labs are doing all kinds of dangerous studies ! Yes-you do not want diseases to escape from those labs ! But you need much more info-on the disease/virus- to even claim SARS-2 "came from a lab" !

Corona virus disease outbreaks in animals often ended with all possibly infected animals being killed as the only way to get that outbreak under control ! Corona virusses are "mean little devils " lab needed !

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or ;

Delta=double hospital risk ! Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.

We already know that vaccination offers excellent protection against Delta and, as this variant accounts for over 99% of Covid cases in the UK, it is vital that those who have not received two doses of vaccine do so as soon as possible. 

DJ I am more interested in virus spread in vaccinated. How will that work out ? From higher levels of viral spread in asymptomatic vaccinated persons (251x normal viral load in Vietnam-Ho Chi Mihn city hospital workers...very limited) to Antibody Dependent Enhancement ADE in the vaccinated...

-Some twitter info [url][/url] or ;

Staunch anti-mask “freedom fighter” Caleb Wallace, who demanded “end of Covid tyranny” has died at age 30. He self treated himself with ivermectin. He had proclaimed #COVID19 is “perfectly fine to live with.” He leaves behind 3 kids & a pregnant wife.

DJ Ivermectin, (preventative) treatments are questionmarks..."Living with the virus" may be realistic if treatments get better...

I’ve been warning about #DeltaVariant since April and May that it would lead to a crisis. CDC didn’t even declare Delta a VOC until mid June despite WHO declaring it a VOC in first week of May. That’s derelict given the mountains of data out there by May.

DJ "Delta"was spread around the globe...repeating the early 2020 start from China...Experts failing to see risks may be a problem. 

the Singapore Delta outbreak proves that vaccinated still transmitted. In this #DeltaVariant cluster alone, among 29 vaccinated who got infected, 21 transmissions events were between vaccinated-to-vaccinated or vaccinated-to-unvaccinated. That’s a lot!

DJ Vaccines ending this pandemic is unrealistic ! 

[url][/url] or ;

Any strategy that involves ~24000 12-17 yr olds getting infected *each week* with 0.5% of those (>100) hospitalised and 4-8% (1000-2000) developing long COVID *each week* when they could be vaccinated with safe & effective vaccines is anything but 'cautious'

DJ Allowing mass infections in unvaccinated-even pushing for it-may be criminal under international laws. 

It's unlikely the situation in the UK will improve without significant advocacy, given the stance of many in the scientific/paeds community has been to minimise the impact of COVID-19 on kids against all global evidence - and this is unlikely to change, without public pressure.

DJ Scientist going against science...just like in the climate debate (we also did see it with smoking...) 

[url][/url] or DJ Mentioning the effects of staff shortages in all of healthcare...what is the point if governments do not stop the spread...

PS ; [url][/url] or and [url][/url] or It looks like a lot of people got killed AFTER the IS-K suicide bomb attack on Kabul Airport by US gunfire...

Music; Voces8-Bleib Bei Uns-Josef Rheinberger [url][/url] or  (DJ-My goal with music at the end of "bad news" is to get you out of the "bad news modus" ! The daily reality, surviving, can use (good) info...but also seeing the bigger picture...)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Let me start with a positive thought; two ways we could get out of this pandemic this year: 1=A mild variant shows up gets dominant. 2=Governments take this pandemic serious....

On 1 I would love to believe there would be a mild Covid19 variant somewhere on the horizon...I do not think we are there yet. The idea of "Covid getting milder" however is one of the reasons governments do not act..."saving the economy"...This also would be my response on option #2...: [url][/url] or prime minister Boris Johnson this week has been reported to say it’s OK if 1000 people die from COVID every week. No action will be taken to prevent it.

DJ-The bad news is-like climate change-CoViD-19 is exponential. "Our leaders" do not get that basic point. "The driver does not see the wall at the end of the dead end street because he is looking backwards...."

So new variants are showing up ! 

From [url][/url] or ;

Breaking—Fears growing that a new #DeltaVariant subvariant has emerged after 5000 young people infected from attending a 53,000 music festival in Cornwall—linked genetically to a Delta subtype. The region now has the highest #COVID19 rate in England. Collectie


NEW VARIANT—a new #SARSCoV2 variant C.1.2 just identified in South Africa & several countries, with concerns it could be more infectious and evade vaccines. #C12 also has mutation rate that is nearly **twice as fast** as the rate of the other variants.๐Ÿงต

DJ link to study [url][/url] or 

The twitter goes on; It means that #C12 variant has somehow mutated so fast and far that it is now the FURTHEST MUTATED variant found to date! It has mutated the greatest genetic distance from the original Wuhan 1.0 strain—and implies potential troubles for 1.0 vaccines.

it gets worse with #C12… it has a 1.7x to 1.8x faster mutation rate than the average of all other variants! The authors note this coincides with the emergence pattern of other really bad VOC variants. 

DJ So we may now be dealing with the new variant(s) evading vaccine immunity ????

Where does this story put us ? [url][/url] or ...Living with climate change, living with pandemics, living with everlasting wars....we may not survive this "living with..."...

NSW-Australia IS in lockdown still Delta (+?) is spreading out of control in the Sydney area...The new variants that start showing up may increase even with Delta with a R0 between 5 and 8 allready being a very "strong" disease...

Israel is going for booster vaccines-looks like a scenario that when the vaccine is over 6 months old "you are seen as unvaccinated"...

The "good news" is NPI may be far more effective than vaccines so far have been ! But that is a matter of choice now only getting more urgent ; S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   ! ! ! ! ! !

And since "our leaders" are looking backwards, counting money, partying or whatever the wall is there....

-Numbers [url][/url] or reflecting limited sunday testing...Maybe some "hopium" in the global trends cases -2%, deaths -0,5% ...Why do India cases show +17%, deaths +10% ? 

Israel cases +16%, deaths +14% (153 deaths last week, 175 this week...), US cases -2% ????

After "Ida" a lot of testing will be problematic with a lot of damage in the US states with allready very high prevalence of Covid-cases...

"Statistics are a great way to lie", "less testing=less cases" etc...


[url][/url] or latests; Lafitte and Jean Lafitte under flash flood warning due to levee failure 


New Orleans confirms another levee failure near Plaquemines Parish.

DJ It is unclear yet how much damage "Ida" did...with close to 3,000 Covid patients in the hospitals not being able to be located in a more safe area. 

[url][/url] or the spread of misinformation about Covid-19, Just Facts is providing a trove of rigorously documented facts about this disease and its impacts. These include some essential facts that have been absent or misreported in much of the media’s coverage of this issue.

This research also includes a groundbreaking study to determine the lethality of Covid-19 based on the most comprehensive available measure: the total years of life that it will rob from all people. This accords with the CDC’s tenet that “the allocation of health resources must consider not only the number of deaths by cause” but also the “years of potential life lost.”...

DJ link [url][/url] or - problem/discussion may be in the interpretation, what do these facts mean, say...

[url][/url] or ; The avian HPAI H7N7 virus generally does not infect humans; however, evidence shows the ocular pathway presents a favourable tissue tropism for human infection. Through antigenic drift, mutations in the H7N7 viral genome may increase virulence and pathogenicity in humans. 

The Victorian outbreak also detected LPAI H7N6 in emus at a commercial farm. Novel influenza A viruses can emerge by mixing different viral strains in a host susceptible to avian and human influenza strains. 

Studies show that emus are susceptible to infections from a wide range of influenza viral subtypes, including H5N1 and the pandemic H1N1. The emu's internal organs and tissues express abundant cell surface sialic acid receptors that favour the attachment of avian and human influenza viruses, increasing the potential for internal genetic reassortment and the emergence of novel influenza A viruses. 

This review summarises the historical context of H7N7 in Australia, considers the potential for increased virulence and pathogenesis through mutations and draws attention to the emu as potentially an unrecognised viral mixing vessel.

See also; [url][/url] or

In 2003, 89 people in the Netherlands were confirmed to have been infected by H7N7 following an outbreak in poultry on approximately 255 farms. One death was recorded - a veterinarian who had been testing chickens for the virus - and all infected flocks were culled. Most affected people had mild symptoms including conjunctivitis.[1][2] Antibodies were found in over half of 500 people tested according to the final official report by the Dutch government:

As at least 50% of the people exposed to infected poultry had H7 antibodies detectable with the modified assay, it was estimated that avian influenza A/H7N7 virus infection occurred in at least 1000, and perhaps as many as 2000 people. The seroprevalence of H7 antibodies in people without contact with infected poultry, but with close household contact to an infected poultry worker, was 59%. This suggests that the population at risk for avian influenza was not limited to those with direct contact to infected poultry, and that person to person transmission may have occurred on a large scale.[3] Final analysis of Dutch avian influenza outbreaks reveals much higher levels of transmission to humans than previously thought

DJ Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a very major concern...lots of types in other animals close to "exploding"...ignoring the risks is the best basis for a next pandemic (on top of this one).

-Dr. John Campbell on schools and Covid [url][/url] or ; Marin County, California, May 19, under 12s 

One teacher, not vaccinated, feeling fatigued with some nasal congestion 

Worked on, toot of mask for class reading Air filter, windows open on two walls 6 feet between desks 

Learned she was positive two days later 12 of 24 had been infected 6 symptomatic, 6 asymptomatic 

Mostly in the two rows closest to her desk 

Outbreak spread to other classes Siblings and parents, including some who were fully vaccinated 

Tracy Lam-Hine, epidemiologist for the county everyone lets their guard down — but the thing is delta takes advantage of slippage from any kind of protective measures 

Children under 12, ineligible for vaccines

DJ In many countries the "official lie" is still "children do not get very ill" from Covid...the new popular lie is "natural immunity is better than vaccine immunity"....Natural immunity has much higher risks and may still not be effective on the longer term ! So bad choice ! If you can avoid getting infected !!!

Further from Dr. J.C. ; COVID-19 Projections for K12 Schools in Fall 2021: Significant Transmission without Interventions 

Without testing and masking R0 = 4.0 

More than 75% of susceptible students get infected within three months in all settings 

With masks, R0 = 2.0 The proportion infected drops to approximately 50% 

Testing further drops infections High, 22% Mid, 16% Low, 13% 

Conclusion Without interventions in place, the vast majority of susceptible students will become infected through the semester. Universal masking can reduce student infections by 26-78%, and biweekly testing along with masking reduces infections by another 50%. 

To prevent new infections in the community, limit school absences, and maintain in-person learning, interventions such as masking and testing must be implemented widely, especially among elementary school settings in which children are not yet eligible for the vaccine. 

DJ Of course since the goal should be to STOP THIS PANDEMIC !!!!! on-line study/work is a better way to limit spread. 

Again "living with the virus" is insane ! This pandemic is going exponential ! The next variants with R0 12 may allready be spreading in lots of places...

(DJ-If I find time I may work on new variants...)

PS-I use add-blockers to get to links...may save a lot of time !

-Music to "close this book for now", sending you all Good Vibrations - Beach Boys - 1967 [url][/url] or 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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The only way you are going to get a mild variant to become dominant is is when it emerges you led it spread by stopping every and all restrictions and actively encourage people to catch it - like the infamous chicken pox parties of the UK where the objective is exactly that.

All of which is exactly the opposite of all current policies and at the moment all the impetus is pushing the evolutionary selection towards ever more infectious and resistant strains.

If all the restrictions were 100% whether that be lockdowns or that we could instantaneously vax the entire world overnight with a 100% effect vax these would work to stop it. Both are of course impossible.  We need essential services (water, gas,electric,food,petrol)  and the hospitals need huge quantities of supplies to keep running so lockdowns can never be 100% as these industires have to keep going plus all the suppliers to those industries.

So we end up where there is variant A which is mild and cannot survive a long lockdown and variant B which is stronger and can survive a lockdown.  We have a one of our partial lockdowns and guess what happens?..... the mild variant A is eliminated and we have now the stronger variant B as the dominate strain.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 30 2021 at 4:29am

cn65, I have been thinking about "out-selecting" the milder variants...Before vaccines showed up CDC came with 59% a/presymptomatic spread. Due to vaccines we may now be at 80% (?) a/presymptomatic spread ? Maybe there are "several parallel roads" developing ? 

Vaccine/natural immunity may result in CoViD getting almost 100% mild ? It is one of my "hopes"...We simply may not know enough of how this Corona Viral Disease is working out in the longer run...

[url][/url] or ; 43. Although unlikely in the short term, in the long term it is a realistic possibility that variants will arise that are more transmissible but with reduced virulence. This reduced virulence, along with high population immunity, could eventually lead to the virus causing a much less severe disease.

DJ SAGE-UK has this option as "unlikely" but not impossible...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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"Israel is going for booster vaccines-looks like a scenario that when the vaccine is over 6 months old "you are seen as unvaccinated"... "

That is a logistical nightmare. We'll end up in a world of permanent vaccination centres with a rolling 6 month appointment.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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I'm thinking that with every new variant ( depending on how it resists current vaccine's),just as we do with the flu,we will have to have boosters,maybe Delta's as bad as it gets ???

That's wishful thinking....

Take care all ๐Ÿ˜ท๐Ÿ˜‰๐Ÿ’‰

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.๐Ÿ––

Marcus Aurelius
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Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.๐Ÿ––

Marcus Aurelius
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KiwiMum I hope you had no earthquake problems...M6,3 Kermadec Islands [url][/url] or ...I do NOT like the global high seismic activity !

While "Ida" is still causing massive problems in the US "Larry" is forming west of Africa...[url][/url] or "Larry" may soon become a hurricane but may stay at the Atlantic the coming week...

[url][/url] or US-CIA links with IS, alquaida..."usefull terrorists" against Russia-Iran-China getting out of control paid for by CIA drugtrade...

This as the background for the worsening pandemic. Both the pandemic, and the coronavirus should not have been a surprise. We all know SARS-1, why SARS-2 "was unexpected" , "had to come from a lab"...? 


Booster vaccines soon may show "limited use" (or even growing ADE risk) new variants may evade the vaccine or use the vaccine reaction; somehow hijacking the immune system to help infections. The human factor is there is a limit to how much vaccines people are willing to take !

Delta has a R0 of between 5 and 8 I dominant variant. It looks like linked to "older" variants-India, South Africa...Brazil, Colombia, Peru may also show up, Philippines-P3...all countries with low level of vaccinations, testing, hardly any sequencing...the main reason Africa does not show up much in pandemic news is a total lack of testing/sequencing...with mega cities like Kinshassa, Lagos, Caïro transport of variants is not the problem...enough hosts...both human and non-human...just like in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia...

Are we running out of possible variants ? No-it may just have started ! Lots of mega-cities with population of 10 million+ ! With one doctor per 100,000 people...The pandemic triangle; disease-host-spread does not need long distance travel in those cities...International air travel "freedom" will spread those variants...

Immuno compromised hosts are a major factor in seeing lots of mutations during a long time illness. In "countries we keep poor" those people may not even see a hospital...

Another factor showing up is Health Care Workers (HCW) simply giving up-looking for better safer jobs. The "liberal" governments (no problem starting wars-but refugees that result from these crimes are unwelcome...Their "freedom" is not linked to a sense of is populist blagh-blagh still getting lots of votes...They create crisis to show leadership-like a fireman starting his own fires...).

Maybe a sign of hope could be more people getting aware of how bad politics created this pandemic, start blame-games, push zillions to their big pharma sponsors...Wars, pandemics...good for bussinesses, shares...

Since things are hardly ever "right or wrong" - Yes better big pharma vaccines may make a difference ! But till they are real, can be used, we need to decrease the spread !

-Numbers [url][/url] or 

Reported global cases 520, 352-of them 119, 642 came from the US-monday testing...Global deaths 7,584..792 of them from Russia. 

Trends global cases -0,2%, deaths -2% however North America cases +2%, deaths +7%, Europe cases -2%, deaths +8%, Oceania cases -36%, deaths +4% of them Australia cases +45% deaths 0% (18 last/this week...) New Zealand reporting this week 465 new cases, 128 cases last week +263%...At the start NZ had hopes to keep numbers under the 150 in total...

Asia cases +4%, deaths -6%; India cases +46%, deaths +20% indicating Delta+ variant exploding ? 

China is reporting cases -14%, last week 222 cases, this week 190 also 0 deaths...Of course you may question Chinese numbers. I take them serious-I believe with massive door-to-door testing it is possible to detect a/presymptomatic cases in an early stage. In that way limiting both spread and death...

I think Chinese strategy is doing much better in "saving the economy" then the "liberal-living with the virus" (piling up bodies) lack-of-strategy ! Yes it is expensive to test ALL of the 11 million people living in Wuhan twice in a week ! China did it ! And by keeping numbers down is doing that much better then "pseudo-liberal" countries with bizarre discussions on who should wear masks when in schools while Delta is exploding among school children...

With a high level of testing, restrictions in regions with spread, a good level of vaccinations, sequencing we may be able to get out of this pandemic before 2022 ! If we are not doing that-politics again fail ! 


[url][/url] or latest; new potentially dangerous variant
To date there are ~100 sequences of C.1.2 reported globally, the earliest
reports from May ‘21 from South Africa.

4 of these at cog_uk, from 2021-06-21,2021-06-27,2021-07-28,2021-08-20

_lots_ of spike mutations, including these worrying ones
vaccines escapes immunity escapes
4,P9L 3,P25L 4,C136F 4,R190S
1,N440K 4,Y449H 1,T478K 4,E484K
4,N501Y 2,L585F
4,D614G 4,H655Y 3,N679K 1,P681H
1,D936N 1,D936H

43,42,48,41 mutations in total

here a picture from a paper from March with the concerning positions :

DJ Whatever name it may get this variant, and a Delta-variantion a.o. spreading in the UK, India may show to be the new variants. With the vaccine/natural immune escape mutations vaccines may offer not the protection they used to offer. That does not mean they will become total useless in the short term it underlines again the need to STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

[url][/url] or ; For only the second time during the 18 months America has been battling COVID-19, the country reached 100,000 daily hospitalizations due to infection with the virus, matching the previous record seen last winter.

In several states, the fourth wave, or summer surge caused by the Delta (B1617.2) variant, has led to hospital bed and healthcare worker shortages. Intensive care units (ICUs) have reached capacity in places such as Georgia, Mississippi and Florida. In those states, elective surgeries have been put on hold.

DJ Was it "caused by the Delta (B1617.2) variant" or stupid politicians making criminal choices ? From no need for masks if you are vaccinated to no salary if your schools make masks mandatory....In the article also ; 

  • A growing number of states are rolling out digital vaccine passports developed by a consortium of health and technology companies, according to Politico. California, New York, and Louisiana are among the states deploying the technology, and at least half a dozen other states are considering it.
  • Despite no evidence of effectiveness in treating COVID-19, prescriptions for the antiparasitic drug ivermectin have jumped to more than 88,000 per week, up from 3,600 per week pre-pandemic, the New York Times reports.

DJ In Europe we have a (digital) vaccine passport that can be used-by now-almost worldwide...We also have cheap self-tests used on a massive scale, easy to get-easy to use...The less welcome part of it-just like with vaccines-people may believe they are in control. Testing positive is NOT a cure ! 

With oxygen getting a problem in parts of the US-storm "Ida" causing major problems in logistics-turning to Ivermectin I can understand. But only under medical supervision !

[url][/url] or ; Philippines, Vietnam, Japan battle record levels

The Philippines, which is experiencing a third surge that began early this month, on Aug 28 reported a record high of more than 19,000 cases, according to Reuters. The country's president, Rodrigo Duterte, extended restrictions in the Manila area and some hot spot provinces.
About one third of the latest cases are from the area around Manila, but high numbers were reported form nine provinces and six cities.
Meanwhile, Vietnam—which had successfully contained earlier spikes—is struggling, like many countries, to curb the more transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant. Cases continue at near record-high numbers, with the highest in three main industrial hubs in the southern part of the country, according to VN Express, an online newspaper based in Hanoi.
In Japan, where cases in its third wave remain near record daily highs, two people died after they were vaccinated with vaccine from lots that were suspended due to contamination with particulate matter, according to Reuters. The health ministry said the people who died were men in their 30s and that investigations into the cause of their deaths is still underway.
Yesterday the health ministry said most of the foreign material in the Moderna doses in Okinawa was fragments of rubber stoppers from the vials, according to the Japan Times.
Europe sees mixed picture, vaccination stagnation

At a briefing today, Hans Henri Kluge, MD, MPH, who directs the World Health Organization (WHO) European regional office, said 33 countries reported a more than 10% rise in COVID-19 cases over the past 2 weeks. "This high transmission is deeply worrying – particularly in the light of low vaccination uptake in priority populations in a number of countries," he said.
Kluge also warned that a number of countries are seeing more hospitalizations and deaths, which increased 11% in the region last week. He added that one reliable group projects 236,000 deaths in Europe by Dec 1.
Growth in COVID activity is driven by the more transmissible Delta variant, the easing of restrictions, and more travel, he noted.
Regarding vaccination, the pace of immunization has slowed over the past 6 weeks, partly due to supply and partly due to lack of acceptance. In Europe's lower- and middle-income countries, only 6% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Researchers detail C.1.2 variant

A team of researchers from South Africa, writing in the preprint server medRxiv, recently described a new variant of interest called C.1.2, which they said has mutations seen in variants of concern that have been linked to increased transmissibility and reduced neutralization. They also noted other mutations that could impact neutralization and replication fitness.
The virus evolved from one of the lineages that dominated South Africa's first wave. So far, the variant has been found in six of nine South African provinces, as well as in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mauritius, New Zealand, Portugal, and Switzerland.
Though the characteristics and epidemiology of the virus are still being defined, they said it's important to track the lineage, given its concerning group of mutations.
On Twitter today, Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the World Health Organization's (WHO's) technical lead for COVID-19, said the more the virus circulates, the more opportunity it has to change. She said the WHO has been in regular touch with South African researchers who have been sequencing the virus and that they first briefed the WHO on their C.1.2 variant findings in July.
So far, about 100 C.1.2 sequences have been reported globally since May. The variant so far doesn't appear to be increasing in circulation, but more sequencing and samples are needed. "Delta appears dominant from available sequences," she added.

More global headlines

  • In Afghanistan, the first air bridge flight arrived today with medical supplies, the first such shipment since the Taliban took over, according to a statement from the WHO. The flight touched down at the airport in Mazar-i-Sharif, the country's fourth largest city, which is located in the north. Pakistan provided the plane, which was loaded in Dubai.
  • Australia's main hot spot, New South Wales state, reported a record 1,290 new cases today. Meanwhile, New Zealand's cases continued climbing at a steady pace with 83 new cases, as the country investigates a myocarditis death in a person who had recently been immunized with the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.
  • The global total today rose to 216,506,898 cases, with at least 4,500,884 deaths, according to the New York Times tracker.

DJ, Over 4,5 million deaths so far with very likely 5 million deaths before 2022. In official numbers...

[url][/url] or ; August 30, 2021 at 12:37 pm EDT
By Jared Leone

CINCINNATI — An Ohio judge has ordered hospital doctors to administer a prescribed dose of ivermectin, typically used to treat livestock for parasites, to a patient infected with COVID-19.

Butler County Judge Gregory Howard ordered doctors at West Chester Hospital to “immediately administer ivermectin” to Jeffrey Smith, WCPO reported.

Smith’s wife sued after he was placed on a ventilator for 19 days. During that time, Julie Smith asked a doctor about using ivermectin. The doctor supported the treatment and prescribed a 30mg dose for 21 days but hospital staff refused to administer it, WLWT reported.

DJ There are lots of claims on Ivermectin...It would protect against infection...but the picture is simply not very clear ! If it was a wonder drug (from Merck-of course willing to make a profit ! And some profit may be acceptable!) it would have shown by now-I think. Ivermectin ALWAYS should be used under medical supervision !!!

[url][/url] or ;DJ We may need to learn more on this development, but also on the UK/India Delta-changes with increasing numbers...Good communications may prevent panic. 

See/read (!!!) also [url][/url] or DJ-What we know so far !

-I was hoping there would be some video's on the new variants in the old (SA/India or Beta/Delta) variants...but maybe even [url][/url] or may find it hard to get a view....

SABC [url][/url] or ; Discussing new mutation of the Covid-19 virus circulating in SA; Prof Tulio Oliveira ;

A new mutation of the COVID-19 virus is circulating in South Africa. According to new research published this week, the C.1.2 lineage was first detected in Mpumalanga and Gauteng in May this year. It has since been detected in seven of the nine provinces, and other countries like Botswana,  DRC, Mauritius, New Zealand, Portugal, and Switzerland. We are joined by Prof Tulio Oliveira, Director of KRISP at the University of KwaZulu-Natal. For more news, visit and also #SABCNews #Coronavirus #COVID19News #Covid-19Vaccination #Vaccine on Social Media.

Music; [url][/url] or Unforgettable Nat King&Natalie Cole remix...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 31 2021 at 9:45pm


In the news; Moderna would offer better protection then Pfizer...part of it because there would be more time between the vaccinations with Moderna then with Pfizer...I believe it was a Belgian study (will show up) published in JAMA. Looking at two months after second vaccination. Moderna also has 3x more mRNA then Pfizer...

I do not know if that kind of study is helping. Maybe looking at infectionrate could be more informative ? Allthough in most countries the majority is accepting vaccines "news" this vaccine may ofeer better protection then that vaccine-with people often not having a choice-may increase hesitancy. Just like in the US in many European countries vaccinations are slowing down...

-Numbers [url][/url] or would be going down; global cases cases -1%, deaths -5%....Still almost 10,000 deaths per day. US both numbers +4%, UK cases +0,9%, deaths -3%.

Israel numbers are "strange" 11,137 new cases two days ago, with 54 deaths. Yesterday reporting 1,687 new cases-0 deaths...reporting problems ? Cases -5%, deaths -7% for Israel trends. Looking at Israeli numbers record for cases was 11,316 september 23 2020- but the 12,073 august 28 this year went over that number...with lots of vaccinations/natural immunity...You see better vaccine/natural immunity protection in deaths...August 22 did see 55 deaths in Israel...january 20 had 101 Israeli deaths...

[url][/url] or ;The new record appeared to be the product of the worsening outbreak combined with more tests being conducted this month than in the past, when the rate of positive results was at times significantly higher than it is now.

Still-looking at the statistics I was hoping to see a bigger difference. Also looking at global numbers for both cases and deaths I do NOT see vaccines making the major difference ! 

One could claim most of the world has not been vaccinated...but there is more then vaccines. What we did gain by vaccines we more then gave up with reopenings + Delta variant pushing numbers up...With autumn/fall on its way, possibly even worse variants spreading-given all the room to spread...simply the outlook is this pandemic is still getting worse !

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or a statement today, the two co-chairs said COVAX has shipped 99 million donated doses, of which 89 million were sent to 92 lower- and middle-income countries, far short of the 1 billion doses the independent panel called for.
"High-income countries have ordered over twice as many doses as are needed for their populations," they said. "Now is the time to show solidarity with those who have not yet been able to vaccinate their frontline health workers and most vulnerable populations."

DJ Not even 10% of the promised numbers...Better news is ; New technology to battle COVID-19

In compiling its list of 24 new technologies that can be used in low-resource settings, the WHO said its goal was to select and assess tools that can have immediate and future impacts on COVID response to improve health outcomes or meet unaddressed needs.
Fifteen of the items on the list are already available, while the rest are still in the prototype stage. They range from simple, such as a colorized bleach additive to identify nonsterilized surfaces, to more complex but still user-friendly devices such as portable respiratory monitors, ventilators with extended battery life, and solar-powered oxygen concentrators.
Mariangela Simao, MD, MSc, the WHO's assistant director general for access to health products, said the WHO will continue to work with governments, funders, and manufacturers to support supplies of the items during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic.

DJ Many countries have more mobile phones then toilets (I think by now all countries may be in that phase...). Clean water is often a problem. Good info, communications does save lives !

[url][/url] or ; American parents are split on whether mask mandates belong in schools, and universities grapple with mandating vaccines, as the nation returns to classrooms and campuses amid the fourth pandemic surge, this one fueled by the highly transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant.
A new Gallup Poll shows 48% of K-12 parents think students should be required to wear masks at school, while 41% oppose student mask mandates. Similarly, 48% say teachers and staff should be required to wear masks, and 38% say they should not.
One area parents are not split on: a return to in-person learning. After 18 months of hybrid, virtual, and some in-person instruction, 77% of poll respondents said they expect their child will return to a pre-pandemic school schedule this year.

DJ In Europe each country makes it own rules for schools...some with masks, social distance (Germany), some dropping even those basic rules (NL)...Since it is clear-India, Indonesia, Israel, US, Scotland...children get infected at schools some countries will find out the hard way also their children have no "natural immunity from birth"...

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or ;

Prof Andrew Pollard, Oxford vaccine team 

Clear that the delta variant can infect people already vaccinated 

Making herd immunity impossible to reach even with high vaccine uptake 

Anyone who is still unvaccinated will, at some point, meet the virus. 

We don't have anything that will stop transmission, so I think we are in a situation where herd immunity is not a possibility and I suspect the virus will throw up a new variant that is even better at infecting vaccinated individuals

DJ So "no point in testing for infections"....Everyone will get infected-but vaccines offer protection...There will be no "herd immunty" with Delta. Dr. J.C. seems to be surprised there will be new variants...Maybe reflecting the group of people he is following. 

UK vaccination, prevented 60,000 deaths and 66,900 hospitalisations 

Never be enough to stop Covid from spreading 

Winter wave inevitable 


Professor Paul Hunter, University of East Anglia :

The concept of herd immunity is unachievable because we know the infection will spread in unvaccinated populations and the latest data is suggesting that two doses is probably only 50 percent protective 

Time to change the way the data is collected and recorded as the virus becomes endemic 

We need to start moving away from just reporting infections, or just reporting positive cases admitted to hospital, to actually start reporting the number of people who are ill because of Covid 

Otherwise we are going to be frightening ourselves with very high numbers that actually don't translate into disease burden 


Sajid Javid Preparations to offer Covid booster jabs from next month Waiting for the final advice from the JCVI 

Over-50s set to be offered the flu jab at the same time as booster


Sir Andrew Pollard : 

 I think as we look at the adult population going forward, if we continue to chase community testing and are worried about those results, we're going to end up in a situation where we're constantly boosting to try and deal with something which is not manageable 

It needs to be moving to clinically driven testing If someone is unwell they should be tested, but for their contacts, if they're not unwell then it makes sense for them to be in school and being educated 


Dr Ruchi Sinha, consultant paediatrician, Imperial College Choosing not to vaccinate children would be unlikely to cause problems in the health service 

DJ As if that is the only thing that matters...! What matters is the burden of patient hospitalisation and actually there hasn't been as much with this delta variant 

They tend to be the children who have got their comorbidities, obesity, or severe neurological problems and those children are already considered for vaccination. Covid on its own in paediatrics is not the problem  

DJ I am almost exploding ! Dr.J.C. is good in showing "liberal conservative" lack of strategy and imagination ! More wisdom in the comments  That... Was... F'ing... Terrifying!  I guess this is the thinning of the herd stage? Take your vitamins and hope for the best...  then in this "strategy" of Bojo "piling up the bodies" to "save the economy" ....

Giving up testing/sequencing will give up one of the very limited instruments we have to get a grip on this pandemic ! China seems to be doing the opposite-massive testing, contact tracing, isolation-also the a/pre-symptomatic spread ! 

Somehow the "leaders" are still in denial of how bad this pandemic will get without proper measures to contain it ! 

Fits in with "living with climate change-insanity"....Totally stupid ! Resulting in newer variants with higher R0, more severe disease (based on leaders hoping a mild-dominant-variant will show up...) ...

Music-Crazy On You - Heart - TopPop [url][/url] or 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2021 at 9:42pm

Sorry, cannot hold my tongue in my hands on this one: what kind of knucklehead is surprised when a virus churns out variants?  It's what they do!  (Facepalm)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2021 at 9:54pm

ViQueen24, some experts claim(ed) there was a limit to the number of variations in this 29,300 genes of RNA making SARS-2/CoViD19...Maybe it is the case in other variants...Coronavirus in animals show lots of "creativity" endless...


Dr.J.C. was claiming "all experts" think "we have to live with the virus". I think he is wrong there but it could be a large group of scientisis-by now-may think that way...only to find out soon enough it does not work that way with exponential risks...

Delta R0 5-8, next major vatiant very likely to have a R0 of up to 12..."Living with climate change" also is NOT an option...But we are still NOT stopping climate change (by voting for the wrong "leaders"...).

[url][/url] or You can not keep switching the story the way Dr. Fauci did !

[url][/url] or (see also new variants) The Colombia variant-since 39% of Colombia cases, 13% of Ecuador cases show this variant-less then 0,1% of global cases. The "variant of interest (VOI) status" indicates this variant is under watch to see what it is doing....If it can become a VOC..Variant Of Concern.

-Numbers [url][/url] or ;

Allthough some countries may decrease testing "because we have to live with the virus" (like not watching the melting of Arctic/Greenland ice..."it will melt anyway..." totally stupid !!!) Colombia trends for cases is -30%, Ecuador cases -60%. Deaths Colombia -22%, Ecuador -13%. For that matter Peru/Lambda cases -23%, deaths -20%...In general South America cases -18%, deaths -13%...The Guyana's/Suriname are the only region in South America with increases...

Latest numbers do NOT look good ! US 184,420 new cases, 1,480 deaths september 1-trends cases +6%, deaths +8%...

UK cases 35,693, deaths 207...trends cases +0,1%, deaths -1%..BoJo may accept this kind of numbers as "living with the virus" but is insane, immoral...killing the poor !

Israel maybe even more shocking-increased testing because of schoolopening-cases 16,629, deaths 43...Cases +7%, deaths -4%...yes-(booster)vaccines may limit the severe cases...Israel had 185 deaths last week, 178 this week, this week 19 deaths per million of population...A lot of countries are now getting close to 0,2% of their population killed in this pandemic (2,000 per million range). With further waves expected...

Flutrackers latest;

[url][/url] or ; The 4 inch an hour rainfall rates over some parts of NYC right now is estimated to have a return period of 1 in 1,000 years. At 5 inches per hour, it is truly off the charts.

Rainfall from tropical storm Ida gushing into the New York City subway Jefferson street subway station taking on water as train pulls up

 DJ Did they not get the warning [url][/url] or ? [url][/url] or ; "Larry"  is expected to stay on the Atlantic-may reach cat 5 strenght [url][/url] or ...Extreme melt, strong storms moving insane amounts of water is increasing seismic risks.  

See also [url][/url] or ;DJ-Power problems may be around for months-creating further problems during a pandemic ! "Dutch Dykes" may have saved New Orleans for flooding-water supply, power is a problem-also roads towards New Orleans have been damaged. 

This kind of hurricanes during a pandemic may costs hundreds of extra lives because of disease...

[url][/url] or ; As cases ballooned in August, however, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported death data to the CDC, giving the appearance of a pandemic in decline, an analysis of Florida data by the Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald found.

On Monday, Florida death data would have shown an average of 262 daily deaths reported to the CDC over the previous week had the health department used its former reporting system, the Herald analysis showed. Instead, the Monday update from Florida showed just 46 “new deaths” per day over the previous seven days.

... Thedramatic difference is due to a small change in the fine print.

... Florida’s weekly report, published on Fridays, also shows a decline in deaths in recent weeks even as the number of total dead across the state spikes.Last Friday, the DOH report showed 389 COVID-19 deaths for the previous week. But a comparison of cumulative deaths from the report the week before showed that 1,727 additional deaths were logged by the health department over that seven-day period. The DOH chart of deaths shows a decline over the past two weeks

... The difference can be an addition of eight deaths one day, and 901 the following day

DJ If you can not control the crisis, try to control the news...old strategy...not helping !

[url][/url] or ;

To better prepare and protect the world from global disease threats, H.E. German Federal Chancellor Dr Angela Merkel and Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, World Health Organization Director-General, will today inaugurate the new WHO Hub for Pandemic and Epidemic Intelligence, based in Berlin.

“The world needs to be able to detect new events with pandemic potential and to monitor disease control measures on a real-time basis to create effective pandemic and epidemic risk management,” said Dr Tedros. “This Hub will be key to that effort, leveraging innovations in data science for public health surveillance and response, and creating systems whereby we can share and expand expertise in this area globally.”

The WHO Hub, which is receiving an initial investment of US$ 100 million from the Federal Republic of Germany, will harness broad and diverse partnerships across many professional disciplines, and the latest technology, to link the data, tools and communities of practice so that actionable data and intelligence are shared for the common good.

DJ Germany may be one of the better countries for such an institute...maybe limit corruption as well...[url][/url] or (the goal of big pharma is big profits...)

[url][/url] or ; On 5 and 19 August 2021 the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) considered whether some individuals may benefit from a third vaccine dose as part of their primary schedule of COVID-19 vaccination (described henceforth in this document as ‘third primary dose’).

DJ Before summer 2022 there will be discussion on a fourth round of "booster vaccinations"...

[url][/url] or ;DJ Since some hospitals face both an oxygen and a staff/HCW-ers crisis and lots of studies indicate Ivermectin may show benefits-in the right dosages-would it not be better to "try to limit mistakes" ? 

DJ-I would not use Ivermectin in a "normal situation". However if I am in hospital/close to ICU for covid and there is no oxygen, not enough staff and Ivermectin would be available I may think again...Yes I had two Pfizer vaccines - Yes it is supposed to reduce risks ! Yes I think people should get vaccinated still ! But vaccines are not doing the miracle some expected (against science !).

[url][/url] or World Health Organization is monitoring a new coronavirus variant called “mu,” which the agency says has mutations that have the potential to evade immunity provided by a previous Covid-19 infection or vaccination.

Mu — also known by scientists as B.1.621 — was added to the WHO’s list of variants “of interest”on Aug. 30, the international health organization said in its weekly Covid epidemiological report published late Tuesday.

... Mu “has a constellation of mutations that indicate potential properties of immune escape,” the WHO wrote in its report Tuesday.

The variant contains genetic mutations that indicate natural immunity, current vaccines or monoclonal antibody treatments may not work as well against it as they do against the original ancestral virus, the WHO said.

DJ I may be more worried about Delta-variants, SA variants that made the news...they also may be included in the WHO lists soon. The number of cases in the UK and India is getting very high-in part caused by more school age children exposed due to criminal government decissions...

[url][/url] or 7-day average of new daily COVID-19 cases is now 160,506, the highest it's been since Jan 25, according to the according to the Washington Post tracker. Despite three authorized vaccines, American cities and states have seen large late-summer outbreaks due to the highly transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant.
August was the fourth-worst month of the pandemic for new COVID-19 cases, with 4.22 million reported, according to USA Today. The 28,605 deaths is more than three times the number reported in July.

DJ Both vaccine AND natural immunity should limit the if cases (with limited testing) are this high it indicates how "strong" Delta is ! Again-good experts did warn; Delta R0 between 5 and 8 so you need BOTH !!!! vaccines AND NPI !!!! 

"Saving the economy", boosting big pharma profits "neo-liberals" put the economy above human lives over and over again...

[url][/url] or ; According to some Israeli scientists, this reversal of fortune provides lessons for countries like Canada, as we enter a fourth wave, to remain cautious about letting any guard down — to avoid some of the mistakes their country made.

DJ Who made what choice when ? In Israel right wing politicians also push for "saving the economy"...Giving up on restrictions because "vaccines (and summer) will save us" non-sense ! This was not a "mistake" it was a criminal choice, the outcome was expected !

[url][/url] or DJ-A lot of discussion and ???...Did this man have Covid 19 (twice)? How good is the info ? In general the idea is getting a vaccine after natural infection/immunity does boost further immunity...

[url][/url] or ; Samples from complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2 isolated during the first wave (December 2019 - July 2020) of the global COVID-19 pandemic from 21 countries (Asia, Europe, Middle East and America) around the world, were analysed using the phylogenetic method with molecular clock dating. Results showed that the first cases of COVID-19 in the human population appeared in the period between July and November 2019 in China. 

The spread of the virus into other countries of the world began in the autumn of 2019. In mid-February 2020, the virus appeared in all the countries we analysed. During this time, the global population of SARS-CoV-2 was characterized by low levels of the genetic polymorphism, making it difficult to accurately assess the pathways of infection.

DJ In practice this is a very complex job. We may not have all the data for a "perfect" reconstruction-but this may be a start. One point that makes this all very complex is; ONE (!!!!!) just ONE host could have started this pandemic ! And he/she/it may not have had any illness ! Does not even have to be a human host !

Some ideas; There is a lot of work-as far as I understand-in other. easy ways to go for mass vaccinations. Since vaccinations seems to be the chosen way it is good lots of countries are doing studies on nasal sprays, vaccine-per-pill, micri-needle-plaster-on-skin etc. 

YOU can make a choice-often-on how much you expose yourself to risks ! A lot of people do not live the way they did before this pandemic started. Reducing exposure is reducing spread ! From masks to social distance, creating your own social can make choices. 

Vaccines do still a good job-even in stopping infections 50% is not bad ! 

-Dr. John Campbell on booster vaccines; [url][/url] or ;

Twelve days or more after the booster dose we found 9.6 - 11.4 - 13.4 fold decrease in the relative risk of confirmed infection 9.5 - 15.5 fold decrease in the relative risk of severe illness 

Discussion If waning immunity to Delta is 50% protection against infection at more than 6 months A booster - vaccinated individual susceptible to infection would decrease to 5% relative to unvaccinated Therefore vaccine efficacy for booster-vaccinated individuals to 95% (similar to the original “fresh” vaccine efficacy against the Alpha strain) 

Our findings give clear indications of the effectiveness of a booster dose even against the currently dominant Delta variant 
DJ I expect booster vaccines to become part of the strategy to "limit" pandemic risks...

On the short term it may offer limited protection...on the longer term I think new variants will become better in evading immunity. Therefor again-stop the spread is the better strategy-also in an economy perspective ! But "we have to learn that the hard way" seems...

Music [url][/url] or The Shargri-La's - Past, Present, Future - 1966 lyrics;

The Shangri - Las ~ Past, Present And Future ; 

The past, past, well now let me tell you about the past 

The past is filled with silent joys and broken toys, laughing girls and teasing boys, 

Was I ever in love? I called it love- I mean, it felt like love, 

There were moments when, well, there were moments when 

Present, Go out with you? 

Why not Do I like to dance? Of Course, 

Take a walk along the beach tonight? I'd love to, 

But don't try to touch me, don't try to touch me 

Cos that will never happen again, Shall we dance 


The future, Tommorow? well tommorows a long way off 

Maybe someday I'll have somebody's hand 

Maybe somewhere someone will understand 

You know I used to sing- a tisket a tasket a green and yellow basket I'm all packed up and I'm on my way and I'm gonna fall in love, 

But at the moment it doesn't look good At the moment it will never happen again I don't think it will ever happen again.

Love that kind of lyrics !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 01 2021 at 10:09pm

I do not believe Fauci changed his story.  I believe he played the odds against a wily opponent.  And when the opponent got more wily, Dr. Fauci had to change his strategy.  It doesn't help that that basically he has been asked to make work the unworkable, and defend the indefensible.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 02 2021 at 5:02am

Originally posted by ViQueen24 ViQueen24 wrote:

Sorry, cannot hold my tongue in my hands on this one: what kind of knucklehead is surprised when a virus churns out variants?  It's what they do!  (Facepalm)

YEP .....

It's also what every creature on the planet

Take care all ๐Ÿ˜ท๐Ÿ˜‰๐Ÿ’‰

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.๐Ÿ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 02 2021 at 9:59pm

ViQueen24-I agree with you that Fauci was in an impossible position at the start. Still "communications" is a job on its own. Experts may be good in some expertises, but communication is a different job...

More wider-lots of institutions-worldwide-keep underestimating this pandemic. People were willing to get vaccinated (in some European countries up to 80/90% of the 12+ y/o = no discussion on mandatory vaccinations here !)  expecting that would end this pandemic. 

They now face cases going up-another lockdown-more strict-is just a matter of time !

One of the more recent major mistakes was reopening because 50%+  of all (US) adults were vaccinated...with Delta R0 between 5 and 8 and experts warning you need both vaccines AND restrictions if you want the R0 to get under 1...stop the spread ! 

Vaccinations limit the spread but that effect was undone, in vain, when you give up all the restrictions !

If indeed 59% of US cases by now are AY.4/Delta+ [url][/url] or  the R0 may be even higher...make more restrictions urgent !


We seem to be getting more variations in variants...Delta may have several Delta+ "family". The SA variant has some new variations. The Colombia-"Mu" variant may be a mix of several other variants...Wath they all may bring is R0 moving up above 8 !

New variations within older variants bringing both more spread and more severe disease (often via higher viral load). 

"Living with the variant"-as some "experts"promote is not a realistic option ! Variants going exponential, pandemic increasing in infectiousness means we are on our way to more immunity evading variants...

You can not survive climate "change" you have to stop that collapse ! Also you have to stop these variants-go for zero Covid- or face "living with a worsening pandemic"...Booster vaccines may have use now-increase protection (Israel study). But that protection does not last long enough, good enough !

Also "natural immunity" does not offer enough protection against newer variants...So STOP THE SPREAD !!!

-Numbers [url][/url] or ;

Global cases september 2 were 678,902, deaths 10,653. 

The US did see-with limited testing-177,568 new cases, 1,565 deaths reported...

The UK 38, 154 new cases, 178 deaths...

Israel 10,006 cases, 36 deaths...

Any "politician" or "expert" calling this high level of suffering acceptable should work a 24hr shift at an ICU !

Trends [url][/url] or cases -3%, deaths -6% worldwide...for now. 

US cases/deaths both +5%, India cases alarming +23% is there a new Delta+ variant exploding in India ? -deaths still at -7%...not looking good at all ! 

UK cases -0,7%, deaths +1%, Israel cases +16%, deaths 0% (both weeks 185 deaths=high !) One would expect more from increase is due to; lifting restrictions, reopening schools/workplaces, newer variants, limited vaccinations. 

Here in NL most hospital/ICU cases (still) in the unvaccinated groups. About 50% of them with a "non-western" background. Also orthodox christians are overrepresented...A small (less then 10%) but violent group of deniers also problematic in hospitals...because Covid "does not exist" doctors "make the wrong diagnoses"...etc...."Learning the hard way" the group of deniers may "get smaller" the "natural way" (+catch the virus they claim is not there...) 

-Flutrackers latest;

[url][/url] or Food and Drug Administration (FDA) announced that its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee (VRBAC) will meet on Sep 17 to discuss COVID-19 vaccine third doses and specifically address the Pfizer-BioNTech supplemental Biologics License Application for administration of a third dose of that vaccine.

DJ "Living with the virus" is living with booster vaccines. Soon those vaccines may come as nasal spray, pills, no needles needed...It will buy time but simply is NOT the answer !!! Variants may go much faster then vaccines...We may have "improved vaccines" against "Delta" by the time "Mu" is the problem...

[url][/url] or new study by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) shows that, after years of decline, US hospitals saw significant increases in healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) in 2020, largely as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Published today in Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, the analysis of National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN) data from acute care hospitals in 12 states found that rates of central-line–associated bloodstream infections (CLABSIs), catheter-associated urinary tract infections (CAUTIs), and ventilator-associated events (VAEs) saw significant increases in 2020 compared with 2019, particularly in the second half of the year.

There was also a significant rise in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteremia.

Prior to 2020, rates of HAIs in US hospitals had been declining since 2015, a decrease that has been attributed to improved infection prevention and control measures. But the surge of COVID-19 patients in 2020—and the diversion of hospital staff and resources to focus on care of those patients—clearly put a dent in those efforts.

DJ Hospitals have healthrisks, medical interventions never are free of risks...So you have to limit the influx ! 

[url][/url] or ; The odds of long COVID-19 fall by more than half after two doses of vaccine, the risk of hospitalization drops by more than two-thirds, and breakthrough infections are nearly twice as likely to be asymptomatic, according to a UK study yesterday in The Lancet Infectious Diseases.


Risk factors tied to breakthrough COVID-19 infection after the first vaccine dose included frailty in adults 60 years and older (odds ratio [OR], 1.93) and residence in areas of high deprivation (OR, 1.11). Body mass index less than 30 kg/m2 (nonobesity) was associated with lower odds of infection after the first dose (OR, 0.84).
The odds of hospitalization fell by about 70% after one or two doses, the chances of severe disease (having five or more symptoms in the first week of illness) dropped by about one-third, and the likelihood of having long COVID-19 (symptoms for at least 28 days after infection) was halved.


"Breakthrough infections are expected and don't diminish the fact that these vaccines are doing exactly what they were designed to do—save lives and prevent serious illness," she said. "We can greatly reduce that number by keeping people out of the hospital in the first place through vaccination.
"Our findings highlight the crucial role vaccines play in larger efforts to prevent COVID-19 infections, which should still include other personal protective measures such as mask-wearing, frequent testing, and social distancing."
The elevated risk of breakthrough infections among participants living in deprived areas could be due to factors such as crowded housing and lower vaccinations rates, the researchers said.

DJ Vaccines are "good news" in this pandemic, still offer good (80/90%) protection against severe disease, around 50% against infection and "long Covid" ....However vaccine protection could be strong enough for 6-12 months...Variants further develop-will find ways to increase evading immunity ! You have to go for "Zero-Covid" !!! There is no alternative !!!

Counting/testing cases-contact tracing are essential to limit this pandemic. Giving up on such tools is worsening the healthcrisis-resulting in further-massive-loss of lives ! Unacceptable !!! (Still the "stategy" of some countries/experts...)[/url] or
"The vaccine appears to have worked to protect my lungs, so that kept me from having life-threatening symptoms, but at the same time, a so-called mild course can be . . . sort of the sickest I've ever been in my life," said Kinsey, who is 38 and lives with his wife and three children in Pennsylvania. "It's important for people to know that what they picture in their head of a bad cold isn't necessarily what will actually happen even if they get a mild course."...

DJ Also after vaccination getting infected may result in "long CoViD"...

[url][/url] or DJ "link in link"=[url][/url] or

In a world first, an Israeli study has uncovered a strong correlation between breakthrough COVID-19 infections and neutralizing antibody levels in vaccinated individuals.

The study, which was published in the New England Journal of Medicine on Wednesday, was led by Professor Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the Infectious Diseases Unit at Sheba Medical Center, Israel’s largest hospital.

Regev-Yochay presented the findings at a news conference on Wednesday.

“It turns out that if your antibody levels are high, you are more protected” against infection, she told reporters. “If they are low, then you are less protected.”

In addition, those with lower levels of neutralizing antibodies were found to be more likely to infect others.

DJ not a big surprise...It would be welcome to study how good vaccinations result in high enough level of antibodies for how long..How many people do not get the expected immune reaction after vaccinations ? And for what reasons ? (If you get vaccinated-but not vaccince immunity then getting infected is not a "break through" infection...). 

[url][/url] or of the FDA’s most se­nior vac­cine lead­ers are ex­it­ing from their po­si­tions, rais­ing fresh ques­tions about the Biden ad­min­is­tra­tion and the way that it’s side­lined the FDA.

Mar­i­on Gru­ber, di­rec­tor of the FDA’s Of­fice of Vac­cines Re­search & Re­view and 32-year vet­er­an of the agency, will leave at the end of Oc­to­ber, and OVRR deputy di­rec­tor Phil Krause, who’s been at FDA for more than a decade, will leave in No­vem­ber. The news, first re­port­ed by Bio­Cen­tu­ry, is a mas­sive blow to con­fi­dence in the agency’s abil­i­ty to reg­u­late vac­cines.
The bomb­shell an­nounce­ment comes at a par­tic­u­lar­ly cru­cial mo­ment, as boost­ers and chil­dren’s shots are be­ing weighed by the reg­u­la­tor. The de­par­tures al­so come as the ad­min­is­tra­tion has re­cent­ly jumped ahead of the FDA’s re­views of boost­er shots, an­nounc­ing that they might be avail­able by the week of Sept. 20.

A for­mer se­nior FDA leader told End­points that they’re de­part­ing be­cause they’re frus­trat­ed that CDC and their ACIP com­mit­tee are in­volved in de­ci­sions that they think should be up to the FDA. The for­mer FDAer al­so said he’s heard they’re up­set with CBER di­rec­tor Pe­ter Marks for not in­sist­ing that those de­ci­sions should be kept in­side FDA. What fi­nal­ly did it for them was the White House get­ting ahead of FDA on boost­er shots...

DJ Several institutions want to be the one that decides strategy...We see that kind of "competition" in NL as well...very likely to show up-at some time-in many countries.

[url][/url] or began to circulate that the virus, which was spreading rapidly among humans through contact and aerosols, was engineered by human hands. The CDC scoffed, but the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that it was seriously investigating a memo sent to the organization by Australian biologist Adrian Gibbs who laid out his evidence for why the virus was not of a natural origin but rather had leaked from a laboratory performing genetic experiments for vaccine production. Gibbs was considered a credible scientist who had participated in the development of the Roche anti-influenza drug Tamiflu. Scientists and public health officials shuddered. A manmade pandemic virus was the last thing the world needed. Years of progress against vaccine-preventable diseases had already been undone by British doctor Andrew Wakefield’s falsified autism-MMR link, which would not be retracted for another year, fully 12 years after its publication.

DJ-Mexican Flu of 2009...It will take years-if not decades-to get a realistic view on how CoViD-19 did start-with corona-viral diseases in animals widespread !

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or ; Risks following infection versus vaccination; 

For every 10 million people vaccinated with the AstraZeneca An extra 107 would be hospitalised or die from thrombocytopenia (1 in 93,459) 

9 times lower than the risk following an infection An extra 66 would be hospitalised or die from blood clots in the veins Nearly 200 times lower than the risk following an infection

For every 10 million people vaccinated with the Pfizer An extra 143 extra strokes would be seen (1 in 69,930) 12 times lower than the risk following an infection 

Myocarditis and pericarditis Chest pain, shortness of breath, or feelings of having a fast-beating, fluttering, or pounding heart ;

52 million doses to 12–29 years 1,226 reports of myocarditis after mRNA vaccination 42,414 One in 42,414 

Data demonstrate increased risks, particularly within the seven days following the second dose The observed risk is higher among males under 40 years of age compared to females and older males Risk is highest in males 12 through 17 years of age

DJ Vaccines/vaccinations are not free of risks-with billions of people being vaccinated it may be realistic to claim thousends died from vaccination. But without those vaccines we would see millions more people dead from the virus ! 

If there are known risks people will NOT get vaccinated !!! (By any good health standard !). Good enough communications can get 80/90% of 12 y/o+ people willing to get vaccinated ! 

Again-even with "just" 50% protection against infection most vaccines (the 50% may be for the mRNA vaccines) still do a great job !!!

However it is wrong to claim we can "vaccinate" ourselves out of this pandemic ! Vaccines are just one part of a much wider-time consuming-strategy !But it looks like we will find out such in a hard way !!

-BPEarthwatch [url][/url] or on "Ida", West US wildfires, Atlantic storms...DJ-Flooding after Ida killed over 45 in NYC area...There were warnings that may not have reached the public...(maybe advertizing was more important then warnings ???) 

"Larry" may stay on the Atlantic touch Canada next weekend ? 

-Music; Abba-I still have faith in you-computer made 2021...[ur][/url] or ..Maybe The Beatles can reunite this way again...nice to see old pictures from Abba-members...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Cuba may be the first country to vaccinate children age 2+ [url][/url] or . Cuba is planning to reopen schools after all the children will be vaccinated-by november. DJ-Unclear if vaccination is mandatory, if people can choose, also what consequences there will be if you do not vaccinate...

Here in NL you may need proof of vaccination later this month if you want to go to a restaurant, cinema etc...(but it is still in discussion). 

[url][/url] or ;Apparently Texas is not reporting the age of #COVID19 patients for 97% of total confirmed cases. Every other state does. Kinda embarrassing @GovAbbott @GregAbbott_TX. Also, tons of #COVID19 in kids nationwide- some places 1 in 5

DJ In Gilead (Texas) [url][/url] or the religious leaders do not believe in the pandemic, climate change etc...

-Numbers [url][/url] or ;

Global cases 663,107, deaths 9,827 trends cases -4%, deaths -6%

US cases 182,593, deaths 1,512, trends cases +3%, deaths +9% (as far as reported...)

Texas/Gilead cases 22,265, deaths 301 on a population of 29 million. 

On january 8 this year the US reported 304,811 cases, on january 12 it reported 4,489 deaths in one day (worldometer numbers)

UK cases 42,076, deaths 121, trends cases +0,8%, deaths +6%

Israel cases 6,244, deaths 7, trends cases +25%, deaths -3%

DJ, I was looking at Cuba, Israel, Switzerland-population in the same numbers-around 10 million, 

Cuba so far 672,599 cases, 5,538 deaths-vaccinations are ongoing, lots of restrictions - 489 deaths per million

Israel 1,104,971 cases with 7,129 deaths - high level of (booster) vaccinations - 764 dpm

Switzerland 788,813 cases, 3,121 deaths....maybe better at limiting cases then Israel, better ICU ? still 1,261 dpm 

New Zealand in worldometer numbers +32 cases, (1 death not yet in these numbers) trends cases +31% last week 329, this week 432 but it looks like New Zealand is able to get numbers down...going for zero-Covid like many countries try...(it is some "Western" countries that are pushing "living with the virus to save the economy"...non-sense). 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or the delta variant continues to spread, child COVID-19 cases are up, data from the American Academy of Pediatrics shows.

Nearly 204,000 cases were added for the week ending Aug. 26, which accounted for 22.4 percent of all newly reported cases that week. Since the pandemic began, nearly 4.8 million children have been infected.

Here is a list of cumulative COVID-19 case counts among children since states began reporting the data through Aug. 26, as reported by the American Academy of Pediatrics. The percentage of child infections relative to each state's total number of reported cases is also presented.

Cumulative child cases: 7,754
Percentage of total cases: 7.8%
*Texas reported age for only 3% of total confirmed cases.

DJ Many countries still stick to "children only get mild symptoms" - reopening schools. In NL over 100 schools allready had to close with schools in the south of NL opening coming monday...

On another note-via elections the US did get rid of trump, replacing him with hopefully a lesser evil. But in some US states (Texas, Florida a.o.) you still have "failing politics", as do have lots of other to deal with that ? 

I respect democracy-but find democrazy a major problem...

[url][/url] or one of the latest; 

(Merck is the manufacturer of Vermectin.)

Merck Statement on Ivermectin use During the COVID-19 Pandemic

KENILWORTH, N.J., Feb. 4, 2021 – Merck (NYSE: MRK), known as MSD outside the United States and Canada, today affirmed its position regarding use of ivermectin during the COVID-19 pandemic. Company scientists continue to carefully examine the findings of all available and emerging studies of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19 for evidence of efficacy and safety. ...

... Indications and Usage for STROMECTOL® (ivermectin)

Ivermectin is approved in the United States under the brand name STROMECTOL. STROMECTOL is indicated for the treatment of intestinal (i.e., nondisseminated) strongyloidiasis due to the nematode parasite Strongyloides stercoralis and for the treatment of onchocerciasis due to the nematode parasite Onchocerca volvulus.

It is important to note that, to-date, our analysis has identified:

  • No scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID-19 from pre-clinical studies;
  • No meaningful evidence for clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID-19 disease, and;
  • A concerning lack of safety data in the majority of studies. ...

STROMECTOL has no activity against adult Onchocerca volvulus parasites. ...

DJ It is good Merck is making this statement...I would hope there were effective treatments...Ivermectin (so far) may not be one of them...

[url][/url] or ;


Emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) pose a threat to human immunity induced by natural infection and vaccination. 

We assessed the recognition of three VOCs (B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1) in cohorts of COVID-19 convalescent patients (n = 69) and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine recipients (n = 50). 

Spike binding and neutralization against all three VOCs were substantially reduced in most individuals, with the largest four- to sevenfold reduction in neutralization being observed against B.1.351. 

While hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and vaccinees maintained sufficient neutralizing titers against all three VOCs, 39% of nonhospitalized patients exhibited no detectable neutralization against B.1.351. 

Moreover, monoclonal neutralizing antibodies show sharp reductions in their binding kinetics and neutralizing potential to B.1.351 and P.1 but not to B.1.1.7.

 These data have implications for the degree to which pre-existing immunity can protect against subsequent infection with VOCs and informs policy makers of susceptibility to globally circulating SARS-CoV-2 VOCs.

DJ [url][/url] or New variants are either showing up in older variants (several Delta+ types) or as a mix of older variants ("Mu")...with some extra mutations...Vaccine/natural immunity may be decreasing - compensating for that would be more restrictions. On the longer term better vaccines...Living with the virus = living with a worsening pandemic ! (In my opinion-I am NOT an expert, I am NOT neutral ! Zero-Covid in my eyes is the only realistic option !)

[url][/url] or Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam released new COVID-19 modelling today that warns Canada could see up to 15,000 cases per day by the end of the month if the rate of vaccination does not increase and more restrictive public health measures are not introduced.

"This is a crucial moment," Tam said. "We have a window of opportunity to rapidly accelerate vaccine uptake and close the protection gap in younger age groups with the lowest vaccine coverage."

Today's briefing marked the first time Tam has taken media questions since the start of the federal election campaign.

Tam said that as the fall approaches and Canadians return to a more indoor lifestyle, they should increase their use of masks and physical distancing...

DJ [url][/url] or 12-17 year-olds in Canada have now outpaced BOTH the 18-29 and 30-39 year-olds for COVID-19 vaccination. I'm going to bet next week they overtake the 40-49s (their parents). Clearly teens know vaccination means regaining what they've lost, and they are DETERMINED.

as an answer...Again- in many countries most people want to be vaccinated ! But even 100% vaccination-giving 80% protection against variants may need restrictions as well ! 

[url][/url] or countries that successfully knocked back earlier surges, Vietnam is the latest to weigh easing restrictions as part of a strategy aimed at reducing transmission, but no longer with the goal of zero cases.
In other developments, African health officials said though vaccine supply is increasing, the region is struggling to meet its end-of-September vaccination coverage goal of 10%.

Vietnam, Australia eye more balanced approach

In Vietnam, Ho Chi Minh City—the country's main hot spot— is considering easing restrictions on Sep 15, as it continues to build its vaccine coverage, according to Reuters. The city has been on lockdown since the end of July. Over the past weeks, it deployed troops to help enforce the measures.
In a draft plan, the city said the plan is designed to balance economic recovery with "living with COVID-19." Ho Chi Minh City and the region around it, which has also been hit hard by COVID-19, is one of the main industrial hubs of the country and is home to factories that make products for international companies.
Australia is also weighing eased restrictions once a greater percentage of the population is vaccinated. In New South Wales state, the Sydney area has been on lockdown for about 2 months, but cases continue to rise.

DJ What strategy is needed, effective, possible in this pandemic ? The picture I have "living with the virus" is no option. But that does not rule out we may have "to live with the virus for now"  untill we have better ways to deal with it-limit the damage the best we can...

But even that would mean limiting international air travel, larger me-the question is how countries think they can "live with the virus" without worsening the pandemic ? 

[url][/url] or ; Vaccine less protective but very beneficial vs Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the Delta (B1617.2) variant was 65% in those fully vaccinated, according to a population-based study in Norway. The results, published in Eurosurveillance yesterday, looked at 4,204,859 infected adults without previous COVID-19 from mid-April to mid-August.
Of the cohort, 0.13% had sequences indicating the Delta variant, of which 29.6% were partly vaccinated and 10.3% were fully vaccinated. VE against Delta of the available vaccines—Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, AstraZeneca/Oxford, or a mix—was 22.4% after partial vaccination and 64.6% after full vaccination (95% confidence intervals, 17.0% to 27.4% and 60.6% to 68.2%, respectively).
The researchers also looked at VE against the Alpha (B117) variant, which was identified in 0.31% of individuals. They found 54.5% and 84.4% VE in those partly and fully vaccinated, respectively.