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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2021 at 9:32pm

KiwiMum-The UK has several (informal in part; press) groups keeping numbers, the health ministery, Office of National Statistics...Then there isalso ZOE-tracker app in use by a few million people in the UK putting in info on symptoms, (self)testing etc...giving some early hints...

On top of that you have "model-makers"; most likely with october on the calander, autumn/fall (in Dutch "herfst", German "herbst" related to "harvest" in English...) will see a further increase of cases. 

Why some people do NOT get a disease/infection sometimes remain a mystery. There was a story on prostitutes in Kenya somehow not catching HIV/AIDS...

DJ

A lot of countries now tend to act like the pandemic is over-often with still high numbers comparing them to earlier "lows" (summer 2020 most often). I would love to believe it is over...However;

.We have seen this pandemic with its waves for over 20 months...so from a precaution point of view most likely there will be some sort of a next wave-also most "experts" (virologists, epidemiologists, some "maths"/statistics-science).

.Lots of other countries still have high numbers of new cases. (EdwinSM in latest news keep deaths per million per month statistics...those numbers still are bad. Last month both US and Russia did see over 150 dpm increase !)

.We also by now know more on the Corona-virus, its link to Laos-bats and the chances of new kinds of SARS from there...

Wishfull thinking is NOT science ! We may still have the worst to come-vaccines do NOT do the miracle job of ending this pandemic. However they do a great job-at limited risk (partly related to how vaccinations are done- no aspiration) in keeping numbers down. 

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

The US and the UK still show themselves to be "worldleaders"in this pandemic; US reporting 120,876 cases, UK 35,577 new cases out of an october 1 total of global 472,256 cases being reported...about 1-in-3 global cases are from the US/UK ! Reported deaths worldwide was 7,369-US had 1,821 UK had 127...(about 1 in 3,5 of the deaths...). 

When I look at test per million of people the UK ends up at #11, US at #32...

In the US the relatively low number of vaccinations (most in poor, black/hispanic and proberbly orthodox religious groups..."Republicans" if I am correct-may still often accept vaccination, maybe somewhat less then "Democrats" but making vaccines "political" is crazy !).

In the UK a lot of cases are related to schools-children getting infected, spreading the virus most to their parents. Same mix of people not being vaccinated; poor, people "of colour", orthodox religious groups and a very limited group of ant-vaccines...

On the other hand lots of countries see over 90% of 12 y/o+ willing to accept a vaccine. Availability is still a major problem for countries we keep poor. Not providing them with vaccines is "just" another crime...Both "the West" and "the East" (RIC=Russia-Iran-China mainly) are not doing enough...

Energy prices going record-high do not help in the logistics of getting vaccines, PPE, oxygen etc. at the right places in time...

Global trends also may point in the wrong direction; cases -8%, deaths -9% with 73 countries reporting increase of cases-lots of other countries still in very high numbers. Yes-numbers do go down but it matters if you see 10,000 cases per million of population or "just" 100...Earlier global lows did see around 400,000 cases per day in february, 300,000 in june...we are still very close to 500,000 cases per day as a "low"...

Healthcare still doing a very good job is almost a miracle ! Politics rather spent money on wars, getting rich people even more rich then on public interests...and a lot of us keep voting for these kind of "leaders"...

We proberbly will see the next wave this month ! Israel may be interesting to follow-booster vaccines did show cases going down...but waning immunity was just one of the problems. A lack of restrictions, to many groups even breaking those limited restrictions, may undo the "booster-effect". 

There have allready been several outbreaks reported in vaccinated groups (Vietnam hospital, Munster-Germany disco, US...). Vaccine passports create a false sense of security !

Here in NL we switched from "keeping social distance" to "vaccine passports" last week. We do have a high number of vaccinated people but NOT spread equal. Cases -5%, deaths -28% in NL is slowly moving towards an increase of cases/UK scenario...

Just like in the US and UK the same groups did see lower vaccinations. I have to look at the exact numbers I believe NL over 80% vaccinated by now but Amsterdam hardly makes it to 45%...The most vulnarables did get vaccinated over 6 months ago...

In NL traffic jams are over 2019/prepandemic levels; public transport is at 70-85% of 2019 level...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924731-symptoms-and-health-outcomes-among-survivors-of-covid-19-infection-1-year-after-discharge-from-hospitals-in-wuhan-china[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924731-symptoms-and-health-outcomes-among-survivors-of-covid-19-infection-1-year-after-discharge-from-hospitals-in-wuhan-china ; Question What are the long-term health outcomes associated with COVID-19 infection 1 year after hospital discharge?

Findings In this cohort study of 2433 patients who had been hospitalized with COVID-19, the most common symptoms at 1 year after discharge were fatigue, sweating, chest tightness, anxiety, and myalgia. Patients with severe disease had more postinfection symptoms and higher chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test scores.

Meaning This study reported prolonged symptoms of COVID-19 and found that severe disease during hospitalization was a risk factor for more symptoms and higher chronic obstructive pulmonary disease assessment test scores.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2784558

DJ; Some claim "it would be wise to get natural infection" often they mean OTHERS should get "natural immunity" (school children or vaccinated people getting natural boosters...) I do like to respect peoples opinion, keep it polite....So "NO !!! I do not think it is a good idea ! ¨"A bit less polite would be to tell those people to watch the video's of hospitals full of patients/ICU overcrowded...most of them will die...You should avoid such risks the best you can !

So YES I would welcome much more restrictions ! YES I think "living with the virus"is a stupid idea promoted by people that do not care !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/924730-emergence-and-spread-of-sars-cov-2-lineage-b-1-620-with-variant-of-concern-like-mutations-and-deletions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/924730-emergence-and-spread-of-sars-cov-2-lineage-b-1-620-with-variant-of-concern-like-mutations-and-deletions ; Abstract

Distinct SARS-CoV-2 lineages, discovered through various genomic surveillance initiatives, have emerged during the pandemic following unprecedented reductions in worldwide human mobility. 

We here describe a SARS-CoV-2 lineage - designated B.1.620 - discovered in Lithuania and carrying many mutations and deletions in the spike protein shared with widespread variants of concern (VOCs), including E484K, S477N and deletions HV69Δ, Y144Δ, and LLA241/243Δ. 

As well as documenting the suite of mutations this lineage carries, we also describe its potential to be resistant to neutralising antibodies, accompanying travel histories for a subset of European cases, evidence of local B.1.620 transmission in Europe with a focus on Lithuania, and significance of its prevalence in Central Africa owing to recent genome sequencing efforts there. 

We make a case for its likely Central African origin using advanced phylogeographic inference methodologies incorporating recorded travel histories of infected travellers.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s414...26055-8#citeas

Yesterday a Polish "Delta variant"  (B.1.617)was mentioned, now this B.1.620 showing up in the Baltics. since march..[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Alerts_for_further_monitoring_(WHO)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Alerts_for_further_monitoring_(WHO) ; Discovered in Lithuania in March 2021[184] also known as the 'Lithuanian strain'. It was found in Central Africa as well as North America.[185] Apart from Lithuania, other European countries including France and Belgium have also found presence of this variant.[184] This lineage has 23 mutations and deletions compared to the reference strain, some of which are unique mutations. The lineage contains an E484K mutation.[185][186] D614G, a mutation present in most circulating strain, is also found in this variant.[187] Other notable mutations include P681H and S477N.[185]

DJ-I hate this !!!! B.1.620 was first detected in november last year....If this "Central African/Lithuanian" variant would show to be increasing against Delta-dominance "that is bad news"...Not (yet) in [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ ...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924707-merck%E2%80%99s-antiviral-pill-reduces-hospitalization-of-covid-patients-a-possible-game-changer-for-treatment-some-related-studies-october-1-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924707-merck%E2%80%99s-antiviral-pill-reduces-hospitalization-of-covid-patients-a-possible-game-changer-for-treatment-some-related-studies-october-1-2021An investigational antiviral pill reduced the chances that patients newly diagnosed with Covid-19 would be hospitalized by about 50%, a finding that could give doctors a desperately needed new way to treat the sick, the drug maker Merck announced Friday.

A five-day course of molnupiravir, developed by Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, reduced both hospitalization and death compared to a placebo. In the placebo group, 53 patients, or 14.1%, were hospitalized or died. For those who received the drug, 28, or 7.3%, were hospitalized or died.

A simple oral medication to help treat Covid-19 has been an elusive goal since the start of the pandemic. Other drugs, including Gilead’s remdesivir, have also been shown to reduce hospitalizations if given early in the course of disease, but must be given intravenously.

DJ We may see better medication (possibly causing less need for vaccinations) to limit infections...It is far easier to get everyone "a pill" then to get everyone vaccinated...You have anti-malaria medication (chloroquine...other discussion). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924727-cidrap-us-uk-adults-report-pandemic-related-distress-disruptions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924727-cidrap-us-uk-adults-report-pandemic-related-distress-disruptionsA pair of new studies highlights the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on adults, one showing the fallout of unstable housing on Americans' mental and physical health and the other describing how UK residents who were depressed or anxious before the pandemic experienced more disruptions to their jobs and access to healthcare after it began.

DJ The duration of this pandemic is becoming a growing factor. How to "trust leaders" that do not "lead us out of this crisis" ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924726-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-drop-15-in-past-week[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924726-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-drop-15-in-past-weekThe 7-day average of new COVID-19 cases dropped in the United States by 15% this week, to 106,400 cases per day, according to Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Walensky, during a White House press briefing, said hospitalizations also dropped to 8,300 per day (also a 15% decrease), and deaths remained at 1,476 per day, on average. Yesterday, according to the Johns Hopkins University tracker, the country confirmed 110,060 cases, including 2,718 deaths.
"Deaths remain substantially higher in states with low vaccination coverage," Walensky said, urging the 70 million Americans who have yet to get vaccinated against the novel coronavirus to do it as soon as possible.
The CDC COVID Data Tracker shows that 55.6% of Americans are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, 64.6% have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 2.2% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster dose.

Vaccine uptake slows

American officials have long said their goal was to vaccinate the country out of the pandemic, but vaccine uptake has slowed significantly in recent weeks.
USA Today analysis of CDC data shows that Americans are getting vaccinated at the lowest rate yet this year. The United States is giving first-dose vaccinations to fewer than 1.5 million people each week, down from nearly 14 million in mid-April.
And despite being authorized for use in children ages 12 and up, only 48% of parents of children ages 12 to 17 say their child has received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine, while 34% of parents of children ages 5 to 11 say they will vaccinate their child right away once a vaccine is authorized for that age group. Those responses come from the latest survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

DJ Looking at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ the US "worst wave" was last winter; Over 100,000 cases per day from early november till mid february...On average US cases have been 100,000+ since early august. So Yes cases are coming down but still remain very high ! With winter on its way the outlook is NOT good !https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924722-china-is-building-a-chain-of-giant-covid-quarantine-centers[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924722-china-is-building-a-chain-of-giant-covid-quarantine-centers ; China is asking city governments to create specialized quarantine facilities that can house thousands of overseas arrivals, as the country continues to take a zero-tolerance approach to keeping out Covid-19.

Local authorities have until the end of October to convert or build the hubs, National Health Commission official Cui Gang told a briefing this week, with the requirement for at least 20 rooms for every 10,000 residents. The goal is to prevent the country’s quarantine facilities from becoming “scattered” and “disorganized,” Cui said.

Cities will also need to provide a list of backup accommodation locations to ensure the effectiveness of their quarantine systems, Cui said...

DJ Australia stopped Australians from returning home, China is not closing its doors but improving protection. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924717-cidrap-studies-provide-insights-into-covid-vaccine-hesitancy[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924717-cidrap-studies-provide-insights-into-covid-vaccine-hesitancy ; Two JAMA Network Open studies yesterday that looked at COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in minority groups and opinions around less-preferred vaccines provide clues for how officials might better encourage immunization.
The first study, involving 13 focus groups, reaffirmed a lack of communication and trust among racially and ethnically diverse communities in the United States.
The second study examined the effect of emphasizing different data around the Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca/Oxford COVID-19 vaccines: People were more interested in uptake when they were presented with the vaccines' effectiveness against death versus their effectiveness against symptomatic infection.

The virtual focus groups involved 70 Los Angeles residents from Nov 16, 2020, to Jan 28, 2021. (Pfizer/BioNTech, the first emergency-use approved vaccine in the United States, received its emergency-use authorization in mid-December 2020.)
Most participants (71.4%) were female, and none were White (24.3% Black, 24.3% American Indian, 21.4% Latino, 15.7% Filipino, and 14.3% Pacific Islander). About 55.7% lived in a zip code area with high poverty, and 48.6% were essential workers.
Overall, 52.9% said they were likely to be vaccinated against COVID-19 when an option became available, and 77.1% said it was important for all people in the community to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. However, themes of medical mistrust, concern about inequitable access or differential treatment, fears around politicization or pharmaceutical influence, and uncertainty around COVID-19 vaccine information, cost, and scheduling contributed to vaccine hesitance.
For instance, participants brought up specific examples of unethical or exclusionary research as well as worries that they were being experimented on.

DJ Racism does do a lot of damage in society ! From pandemics to crime; racism is a (pro)motor !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924701-covid-19-the-plague-of-the-poor[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/924701-covid-19-the-plague-of-the-poor ; When President Joe Biden announced sweeping new vaccine mandates for 100 million Americans, he stated that these measures were necessary to “protect vaccinated workers from unvaccinated co-workers.” But isn’t the vaccine itself supposed to be what protects the vaccinated? Not well enough, apparently. So whose interests are served by mandating a leaky vaccine that prevents neither infection nor transmission of a disease that is chiefly dangerous to people over 75 or with serious preexisting medical conditions?

“The unvaccinated” is a group defined more by class than by any other characteristic (perhaps besides age). Although the Biden administration has invested $10 billion toward expanding access to vaccines and building “vaccine confidence” in low-income areas, staunch resistance remains in many working-class and minority communities. In New York City for example, only 28% of the city’s Black residents aged 18 to 44 were vaccinated as of August 2021, when the city began paying residents $100 each to receive the vaccine. When that didn’t work, the city embraced a vaccine passport system that would exclude the majority of young Black New Yorkers from most indoor and civic activities, amounting to a de facto form of segregation.

DJ Paying people to get a vaccine, punisheng those who do not get a vaccine is a "terrible way of communicating"! Why not accept you may never get 100% of people willing to take a vaccine ? Certainly if that vaccine at bests offers 90% protection...

In ALL countries some people do not want to get vaccinated for very different reasons. Fear of needles is different from fear of big pharma-experiments...There are alternatives for vaccinations ! Unvaccinated careworkers could accept being kept away from high risk groups...Communicate and avoid needles confrontations !

-Dr. John Campbell; Now and the next months; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jt7T-26qQH8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jt7T-26qQH8 Limited info under the video, some remarks;

Israel may be at a lower % then the UK of fully vaccinated population total. But 1/3 of its population is under 18/21...Young people are supposed to be more save for Covid (proberbly even for Delta allthough the differences are getting much less ! A higher viral load will do more harm-also in children !)

New Zealand/Australia cases going up high speed...DJ-restrictions are the other factor. Dr.J.C. is focussing to much on the vaccines in my opinion. 

Where does Dr.J.C. gets his statistics from-they are outdated ! US over 700,000 case at worldometers for days, UK, Canada cases going up-NOT "leveling off" !

UK depression 10% of adults in 2019-over 20% during the pandemic is important info ! You do not have to get infected to get effected !

The Dr.J.C. baseline remains "vaccines will save us" ...ignoring by now lots of cases of larger spread events in vaccinated groups. His conclusion "the west will see the last wave this autumn because of high level of natural/vaccine immunity" is "very optimistic" at best, "totally unrealistic-ignoring earlier waves" may be my view...

Dr.J.C. keeps ignoring facts that does not fit in his tunnelvision...like increase of cases in vaccinated-increasing (though still low numbers) also in more symptomatic cases. Again Delta R0 is between 5 and 8-you need both vaccines AND restrictions...and we are not doing that...(I hope I am wrong, I am NOT an expert ! I did get it wrong with expecting we would see major increases when schools reopened...so far...but it may be a slower increase...) . 

DJ-Dr.J.C. is an expert with decades of experience in training (he is NOT a virologist/epidemiologist !) and-just like me-trying to make some sense...[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; And while $700 for a course of molnupiravir pills isn’t exactly cheap—a transfusion alone can cost $1,000, & that’s on top of the cost of drugs delivered intravenously. A course of monoclonal antibodies can cost $2,100, while remdesivir can cost $3,100

-

Fun fact— The name of the new drug molnupiravir is a reference to Thor’s hammer, Mjölnir!  (And a drug ending with -vir means it’s an antiviral drug).

-

Just how much more severe is #DeltaVariant in kids mortality? Data from Florida among kids <16 show that the case fatality ratio (CFR) in kids has now climbed 3.5x more than pre Delta! To now 1 death for every 10,000 infected. Ogen  

is one of many other experts trying to inform the public.

DJ-I think the best experts in the world most likely are very divided on what to expect. Most of them may agree on "some increase of cases" the coming months. Most proberbly worried on decreased vaccine protection...the very low rate of testing/sequencing. The lack of restrictions. 

In my opinion we have to get more aware of pandemic risks. By "managing the risks" we can keep a place safe...by ignoring the risks this place is getting more and more unsafe...

-Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMPR6Ujop4k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMPR6Ujop4k Visage-Fade to Grey 1981 rare video...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 12:29pm

The prostitutes in Africa were found to have the CCR5 Delta 32 gene mutation - my favourite of all the gene mutations and something my children and I have studied repeatedly over the years - and this mutation, which is found in about 10% of Europeans, has a history of protecting the carriers from nasty diseases. From the descendants of the inhabitants of Eyam in the UK, they discovered that if you have 2 copies of this gene, one from each parent, then you never even succumbed to the Black Death and this would account for the people who were surrounded by it and still never became ill. If you have one copy (from one of your parents) you became ill with the disease but you recovered. There's a fascinating scientific study that was done on this. 

And so the prostitutes in Africa who, despite having sex with multiple HIV positive men and using no protection, still don't have HIV themselves and they were found to have the double mutation. 

There's just been a report in the Czech republic that has concluded that people with this mutation are far more likely to have an asymptomatic case of Covid and are far less likely to have a symptomatic case of Covid, and therefore they have concluded that the gene may be able to be used as an indicator in the potential severity of Covid. 

But having this gene isn't 100% a great thing, as research has also shown that the carriers of it have a slightly shortened lifespan, by between 2 and 4 years. 

Personally I'd love to know if we have it in our family. Given the opportunity I'd have my full genome mapped. It would be so interesting.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 2:56pm

I wondered if people have  had a bad reaction to the vaccine , would be the ones that got really sick if the contracted it.......

I know in my family we all heal from wounds very quickly,My Mom has just had another major  operation(broken femur again!!!) that's  5 over 7 years and at 86 ,she's up and about after a week.......

my uncle by marriage has some sort of super anti bodies,not sure exactly I'll have to ask him,

We humans have evolved to survive.....

take care all 😷😉💉


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 4:11pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

I wondered if people have  had a bad reaction to the vaccine , would be the ones that got really sick if the contracted it.......

......and conversely if the people who had no reaction to the jabs would have had a very mild Covid infection. 

They suspect there are a couple of asymptomatic people in Auckland who are spreading it and have no idea they are infected.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 4:18pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

I wondered if people have  had a bad reaction to the vaccine , would be the ones that got really sick if the contracted it.......

......and conversely if the people who had no reaction to the jabs would have had a very mild Covid infection. 


Yep ...😉

The problem being how do you know !!??

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 4:27pm

Well there is no way of knowing.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 7:39pm

Genetic testing at birth and a QR code tattooed on you bum.....lmao


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 8:12pm

Oh you're talking about the CCR5 Delta 32 mutation. I thought you were speculating about who would have what reaction to a disease or a vaccine.   

The mutation can be easily tested for. There are a number of labs that offer the test for that particular gene. It's a very popular test within the male homosexual community as 2 copies of the gene make you immune to HIV, so unprotected sex is not so risky. Google it. You'll see. 

Personally I'd love to know if my family have it, and if so, how many copies. It's on my list of things to spend money on but it keeps getting pushed down the list as my children get older and more expensive to raise.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2021 at 11:15pm

DJ,

Of course we are all "equal but different". That is why pandemics are even more unpredictable. If a disease in humans isrelated to eating pork countries that do not eat pork are better of...We all have lots of genetic differences-so in a chain reaction-infection-host-spread of disease the hosts do matter...This pandemic wll give lots of info for antropologists...why some groups were hit much harder then others in the same socio-economic situation...

Do people with "red hair" get more or less severe CoViD statistics...shorter or taller people ? From biology short people may be catching more viral load ? 

-Other news [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/america-we-have-a-situation-la-palma-is-shaking-so-badly-it-is-emanating-gravity-waves[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/america-we-have-a-situation-la-palma-is-shaking-so-badly-it-is-emanating-gravity-waves and [url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000fr2z/executive[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000fr2z/executive , [url]https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000fr0b/executive[/url] or https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000fr0b/executive Some very bizarre very deep major earthquakes the last few days...A M5,9 in Brazil at 589,4 km depth, before that a M7,3 (!!!!) Vanuatu depth 535,8 km depth ! 

I even did take a look at Dutchsinse...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqUVBosQWts[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqUVBosQWts but his stories do not make enough sense for me. BPEarthwatch may have a better-sun related/solar wind-story [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4LKXgdnIH8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4LKXgdnIH8 BPEarthwatch (BPE) may be a tiny bit underestimating La Palma collapse risks, Hal Turner is over estimating/exploitating risk/fear...in my opinion...

BPEarthwatch has some points linking geological events with famines, (and you may also find some-maybe indirect-links with pandemics). The "year without a summer" 1816 was linked to the Tambora volcanic eruption of 1815. It was one of the reasons for a foodcrisis...and hungry people protesting may spread disease...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PV-TPpr3xu0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PV-TPpr3xu0 Two "small" quakes within 24 hrs in San Francisco area...M3,4 and 3,0...BPE did mention 27 volcanic eruptions with several more in "orange"...He is linking an increase of quakes with solar flare energy hitting the Earth...

Maybe from statistics he may have a "better story"? 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/how-ap-reuters-and-scmp-propagandize-their-readers-against-china.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/how-ap-reuters-and-scmp-propagandize-their-readers-against-china.html Taiwan has "several air defense zones". The largest of these self-made zones may be close to China...so yes it is very likely Chinese planes get into that zone...If the UK would go for a 100 mile zone around the British Isle they could make claims France and Belgium getting into such a zone...with French and Belgian planes still within their own borders...

Israel did attack an Iran nuclear facility near Tehran-from an Azarbaijan airbase...Both Russia, Iran and China "will not be happy with it"...

-Back to the pandemic; numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Cases -9%, deaths -10% Eastern Europe seeing high level of increases due to limited vaccinations (and some mutated variants ???). Finland, Denmark see cases going up high speed due to lifting of restrictions...NL cases now only -1%...we are seeing lifting of restrictions and bad weather...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924795-covid-in-minnesota-3-700-new-cases-reported-testing-numbers-on-the-rise[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924795-covid-in-minnesota-3-700-new-cases-reported-testing-numbers-on-the-riseMINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) – Minnesota health officials reported 3,714 new COVID-19 cases and 17 deaths Friday, following a report that over 230 grade schools have had five or more virus cases since the start of the school year.

DJ Spread via schools becoming a major-tested-factor. Asymptomatic spread will be the major untested factor...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924790-covid-19-deaths-hit-5-million-as-world-battles-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924790-covid-19-deaths-hit-5-million-as-world-battles-variants

COVID-19 deaths hit 5 million as world battles variants


https://www.timesofisrael.com/covid-...tles-variants/

It took just over a year after disease emerged to reach toll of 2.5 million, but next 2.5 million deaths occurred in under 8 months, according to Reuters analysis...

DJ Worldometers still at 4,8 million reported deaths-real number between 15 and 20 million ? [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/covid-19-deaths-hit-5-million-as-world-battles-variants/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/covid-19-deaths-hit-5-million-as-world-battles-variants/

On a per capita basis, the country that recorded the most new cases this week was Serbia with 681 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, ahead of Mongolia with 511 and Lithuania 450

The US also recorded the biggest number of deaths with 1,924 per day followed by Russia with 830 — striking a record for the fourth day in a row on Friday at 887 — and Brazil with 541.

On Friday, the US neared 700,000 deaths overall since the pandemic began.

-

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease specialist, warned on Friday that some may see the encouraging trends as a reason to remain unvaccinated.

“It’s good news we’re starting to see the curves” coming down, he said. “That is not an excuse to walk away from the issue of needing to get vaccinated.”

DJ Sorry to say it but tendencies are turning, cases will soon go up again.Decrease of vaccine protection in those vaccinated several months ago, winter on itsway, less restrictions, bad communications, new variants/mutations...Of course if you do not test you do not detect spread in vaccinated people...Wishfull thinking has been the main idea behind "strategies"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/924794-china-new-rules-mean-youngsters-in-china-can-now-only-game-online-for-three-hours-a-week[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/924794-china-new-rules-mean-youngsters-in-china-can-now-only-game-online-for-three-hours-a-week ;

... Minors can only play online games between 8-9pm on Fridays, weekends and national festivals and holidays. ...

New rules in China mean that under 18s are only allowed to play three hours of online games per week, at those time specified.

Even for a communist state that regulates its citizens lives far more than the West, it is a new extension of control. And that control is now being applied to different parts of society and culture, in a new crackdown.

... The rules have been introduced to curb video gaming addiction.

https://news.sky.com/story/china-new...-week-12422065

DJ You can discuss what role governments have to play. In former East-Germany the SED-dictatorship meant no drug problems (just alcohol problems, human trafficking etc.), as good as full employment, low prices for housing, education, health/childcare...In "liberalized economies" costs/profits make those basics very expensive. We need to find a new balance...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924784-egypt-experiencing-4th-covid-wave[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924784-egypt-experiencing-4th-covid-waveEgypt’s Ministry of Health and Population on Thursday reported 741 new coronavirus cases, 37 deaths, and 419 recoveries.

A total of 304,524 cases have been disclosed in Egypt, alongside 17,331 deaths and 256,886 recoveries.

The country’s fourth wave of the virus is in full force, with daily case figures ten times higher than what was recorded at the end of July.

Moreover, the Health Ministry has stated that official figures likely only represent 10 percent of actual cases.

DJ Given the housing situation in Cairo, Alexandria etc. there will be new variants showing up...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924783-covid-19-cases-continue-to-climb-in-atlantic-canada-with-fourth-wave-of-virus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924783-covid-19-cases-continue-to-climb-in-atlantic-canada-with-fourth-wave-of-virusThe surge in COVID-19 cases is continuing in Atlantic Canada, led by an outbreak in New Brunswick where health officials reported 85 new infections and one virus-related death Friday.

Officials confirmed that a person aged over 90 had died in the Moncton area, bringing the total number of deaths in the province due to novel coronavirus to 60 since the beginning of the pandemic...

...In Nova Scotia, officials reported 77 new cases of COVID-19 since the province's last update on Wednesday...

...Newfoundland and Labrador reported 41 new cases and two more deaths attributed to the novel coronavirus since the province's last update on Wednesday...

...The province [PEI] reported three new COVID-19 cases Friday involving one person in their 20s, one in their 60s and one in their 70s. All three had recently travelled outside of P.E.I. The province has 11 active cases of COVID-19 and has had 302 positive cases since the pandemic began...

DJ Proberbly winter could be a factor in Canada...

Other sources;

[url]https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/study-suggests-r-rate-for-tracking-pandemic-should-be-dropped-in-favour-of-nowcasts[/url] or https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/study-suggests-r-rate-for-tracking-pandemic-should-be-dropped-in-favour-of-nowcasts

In later stages of a pandemic, the researchers conclude that use of the effective R rate which takes these factors into account is also not the best route: the focus should be not on contagiousness, but rather on the growth rate of new cases and deaths, examined alongside their predicted time path so a trajectory can be forecasted.

“These are the numbers that really help guide policymakers in making the crucial decisions that will hopefully save lives and prevent overcrowded hospitals as a pandemic plays out – which, as we have seen with COVID-19, can occur over months and even years,” said Kattuman. “The data generated through this time-series model has already proved accurate and effective in countries around the world.”

DJ R0 is presenting a situation that is 2-3 weeks old...

[url]https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2021-09-15/portuguese-most-pro-vaccine/62389[/url] or https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2021-09-15/portuguese-most-pro-vaccine/62389

According to the survey, commissioned by the European Parliament as part of the State of the Union speech, 87 percent of Portuguese agree and tend to agree that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh its risks, the highest value of the 27 Member States and 15 points above the EU average (72 percent).

Of respondents in Portugal 54 percent agree or tend to agree (32 percent) that being vaccinated against Covid-19 is “a civic duty”, also the highest number of positive responses among Member States.

DJ "Keeping politics out of it" , vaccination as a medical intervention (not a political action). 

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericdingNow you’re dealing with people in their 30s and 40s and 50s. These are people who, without the pandemic, they would almost certainly be alive and live full lives. It’s so much worse now than it was when the pandemic first happened. #DeltaVariant is tremendously worse.”

DJ In my opinion main problem; politics still not taking this pandemic serious (or even darker agenda's; "cost reductions" this pandemic supposed to kill "people with costs"). There has been no evaluation on how first the pandemic could spread out of China after the january 2020 Wuhan-lockdown...The risks should be clear ! But in april this year "Delta" had "free global travel" out of India...

And again "we did almost beat the virus" / "pandemic allmost over" nonsense...we have heard/seen it before ! 

-Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bamaEMftg4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bamaEMftg4 ; natural versus vaccine immunity...info on some studies under the video.

DJ What I do miss in this story is the [url]https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext[/url] or https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext ; 

After initially containing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), many European and Asian countries had a resurgence of COVID-19 consistent with a large proportion of the population remaining susceptible to the virus after the first epidemic wave. By contrast, in Manaus, Brazil, a study of blood donors indicated that 76% (95% CI 67–98) of the population had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by October, 2020. High attack rates of SARS-CoV-2 were also estimated in population-based samples from other locations in the Amazon Basin—eg, Iquitos, Peru 70% (67–73). The estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in Manaus would be above the theoretical herd immunity threshold (67%), given a basic case reproduction number (R0) of 3.
In this context, the abrupt increase in the number of COVID-19 hospital admissions in Manaus during January, 2021 (3431 in Jan 1–19, 2021, vs 552 in Dec 1–19, 2020) is unexpected and of concern (figure).      After a large epidemic that peaked in late April, 2020, COVID-19 hospitalisations in Manaus remained stable and fairly low for 7 months from May to November, despite the relaxation of COVID-19 control measures during that period

DJ Four factors;

1 Over estimate herd immunity...no indications for that, even if it was a bit lower it could not explain the explosion of cases later on.

2 High level of immunity started waning-most likely there is a decrease of protection after 6 months-but after 8 months there still should be a high level of protection.

3 New variants (in Manaus-Brazil, P1, Alfa-UK) did evade natural immunity.

4 New variants also had higher transmissibility (higher R0) so infecting more people in a shorter time span. 

See also [url]https://www.science.org/content/article/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccines[/url] or https://www.science.org/content/article/new-coronavirus-variants-could-cause-more-reinfections-require-updated-vaccinesEmerging variants of the coronavirus have been in the news ever since scientists raised the alarm over B.1.1.7, a SARS-CoV-2 variant that first caught scientists' attention in England in December and that is more transmissible than previously circulating viruses. But now, they're also focusing on a potential new threat: variants that could do an end run around the human immune response. Such "immune escapes" could mean more people who have had COVID-19 remain susceptible to reinfection, and that proven vaccines may, at some point, need an update.

DJ It is not "if" more infectious variants (inside Delta(+) or outside) will show up these months but "where" and "when"...Not testing/sequencing most of the spread without (severe) symptoms is just as stupid as letting the virus/variants spread from China, Brazil, India, South Africa...

"Politics" does not want to learn anything-suggesting there is some "evil agenda" strategy...

-Music; I was hoping to find a mix of "ticket to ride" mixing Beatles and Carpenters clips...but sorry...However this is also nice-I think-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG6yQPdJbps[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NG6yQPdJbps ; Exclusive live performance by The Carpenters (Richard & Karen Carpenter) and band at the 'Grand Gala du Disque', 15 February 1974 in the RAI Congres Building, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. This show was live broadcast by AVRO Television in the Netherlands 

Medley:  - 'Little Honda’ (Brian Wilson and Mike Love)  - ‘The End of the World’ (Sylvia Dee, Arthur Kent),  -  ‘Runaway’, (Del Shannon and Max Crook)  - 'Da Doo Ron Ron’, (Jeff Barry, Elly Greenwich, Phil Spector)  - 'Johnny B. Goode’ (Chuck Berry)

Broadcast date: 15-02-1974 

DJ TV in NL started october 1 1951-so now celebrating 70 years of Dutch TV...TopPop remains special [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TopPop[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TopPopTopPop was the first regular dedicated pop music television series in the Dutch language area. The Netherlands broadcaster AVRO aired the programme weekly, from September 22, 1970, to June 27, 1988

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TopPop#Selected_list_of_performers[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TopPop#Selected_list_of_performers 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxjzlr0hdKWfIwK2lY0SvEg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxjzlr0hdKWfIwK2lY0SvEg TopPop YouTube channel...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2021 at 9:42pm

DJ, 

From [url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1




Japan's PM is apparently set to resign over his poor handling of Covid: 141 deaths per million population in a crowded island and high proportion of older people. Our Covid deaths are 2004 per million with an ongoing death toll of 1000 per week.

-






-

This is the state of daily hospital admissions with COVID-19 in England- ~40 children admitted to hospital each day. From a preventable illness. Risk of admission is highest in adolescents & under 5s. What is our govt doing to protect them ?

This is the state of daily hospital admissions with COVID-19 in England- ~40 children admitted to hospital each day. From a preventable illness. Risk of admission is highest in adolescents & under 5s. What is our govt doing to protect them?

DJ (A bit of a tech problem...

One of the reasons Portugal has a high level of vaccinations is "politics" stayed out of the discussion on a medical intervention...The UK now seeing over 40 children per day going into hospital while BoJo claims his party is supporting NHS...(by defunding it ?)

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

When I look at my country-The Netherlands=NL cases -0,5%, deaths -11%...we may be going the "UK-road" where a criminal government is claiming less then a 1,000 deaths per week is "no problem"...

UK cases still +1% , deaths -19% last week 965, this week 785...with hardly any new vaccinations and waning immunity the level of vaccine/natural protection for the UK is decreasing. With winter coming, an energy crisis, outlook not good. 

US cases -23%, deaths -20%; 12,509 last week, this week 9,956 the US may be moving to a bit less high levels-still much to high...

Global trends cases -11%, deaths -10%. We did see 3 million cases this week, down from 3,3 million. Deaths worldwide last week was 54,623 as far as reported, this week 48,957...Worldometers total deaths from Covid at 4,816,000+ others allready over the 5 million...

Sunday-oct-3 total number of 303,127 reported cases worldwide, 4,625 is "unusualy low". The 7 day moving average is 420,000 cases per day, almost 7,000 deaths. 

As reported also on other posts here on this forum-also young healthy people catch the virus, children also at risk. In the UK 1-in-5 schoolchildren by now "getting natural immunity" because the government is not providing vaccine protection. This means 40 children per day getting into UK hospitals, number will go up...

Vaccines have limited risks, not aspirating while vaccinating can end up the vaccine getting into a bloodvessel instead of the muscle...That can cause all kinds of extra problems...But statistics make VERY, VERY clear !!!! Vaccines are reducing risks in a major way ! So get vaccinated if you did not yet get "the shot"...If there is fear for needles, side effects-talk about it ! Maybe in Black, Hispanic (etc) communities Black, Hispanic HCW-ers may see more people getting vaccine protection. Booster vaccines also do work Israel is showing us. 

By getting vaccinated you can help society. Healthcare may get a little more room for non-CoViD care..also much needed ! 

And since I am not neutral, hate to be "objective"...(I do not believe anyone can be "objective" !) next time you vote get a politician who works for the people not "big money" if you can make such a choise...(lots of politics for now have gone "rotten"...)

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest; 

  • I do not know who the CDC Health Alert Network are but I do not think they have anything to do with 'The CDC', they seem to be a pro-Ivermectin lobby.
    [EDIT] I dug a little deeper and the CDC Health Alert Network is part of the CDC but I can not see how it can be referenced as pro Ivermectin given the text says
    "Ivermectin is not authorized or approved by FDA for prevention or treatment of COVID-19. The National Institutes of Health’s (NIH) COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines Panel has also determined that there are currently insufficient data to recommend ivermectin for treatment of COVID-19."

    The Indian COVID kit is unfortunate as Ivermectin has yet to be shown to be effective and Doxycycline is an antibiotic which will not impact the virus but may well lead to resistance.
    Last edited by JJackson; Today, 04:53 PM.

-----------------------------------------------------------

I am so "over it" with the US health departments. They all disagree with each other in varying degrees. The mask fiasco is one example. This is why this site recommendation is to consult with your medical practitioner.

As to the India situation - I really like John Campbell but these outbreaks run in waves and the India wave was hitting a downturn when the kits were distributed anyway. I am not sure there is any correlation between the wave downturn and some of the contents of the kits. Overall the kits are probably better than nothing since they include masks and an oximeter. Time will tell as the pandemic is not over.

DJ The picture I have on Ivermectin in short. Get a vaccine-limited risks, very good protection. Ivermectin may be coming in short supply if people that can get a vaccine refuse to take that offer. Ivermectin could be usefull in treating allready infected persons...but it still is an unclear story...

It is NOT the alternative for vaccination !!! As far as I did see in some cases it may prevent infection, in other cases people using Ivermectin still did get infected-some died...(May be related to dosages, viral loads etc. )

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/913781-covid-19-vaccine-dangers-side-effects-controversy?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/913781-covid-19-vaccine-dangers-side-effects-controversy?view=stream latest; Oct 1 (Reuters) - The European Union's drug regulator on Friday identified a possible link between rare cases of blood clotting in deep veins with Johnson & Johnson's (JNJ.N) COVID-19 vaccine and recommended the condition be listed as a side-effect of the shot.

The European Medicines Agency also recommended that immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), a bleeding disorder caused by the body mistakenly attacking platelets, be added as an adverse reaction with an unknown frequency to the J&J vaccine product information and to AstraZeneca's (AZN.L) vaccine.

J&J said while the chances of experiencing these conditions were very low, the product information would be updated accordingly as it continues to work closely with authorities including EMA...

DJ Yes-vaccinations = medical intervention = not risk free. Not taking a vaccine is also a choice...may have (much) more risks...Like the Ivermectin story a long term discussion. We do not live in a perfect world !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924804-vaccine-mandates-hit-amid-historic-health-care-staff-shortage[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924804-vaccine-mandates-hit-amid-historic-health-care-staff-shortage ; What some are calling the worst U.S. health-care labor crisis in memory is sharpening concerns about attrition from resistance to vaccine mandates -- even in the medical mecca of Massachusetts, where Covid cases remain well within hospital capacity. About 16% of American hospitals had critical staffing shortages as of Oct. 1, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

The uptick initially coincided with a surge in Covid-19 hospitalizations, but shortages have persisted even as the virus ebbs, suggesting other factors.

“We don’t have a single position we can afford to lose right now,” Eric Dickson, president of UMass Memorial Health, told Bloomberg Radio last month. “I have areas that have a 50% vacancy rate. And God forbid we lose any more.”

In recent weeks, worker shortages have prompted extreme measures, even in regions that aren’t Covid hot spots. In Virginia, five state psychiatric hospitals had to stop accepting patients. A lack of nurses forced Rhode Island Hospital to close part of its emergency department. And a major Michigan hospital chain says 5% of its beds can’t be filled for lack of staff...

DJ We need communication not confrontation !!! Treating some people in some (public) jobs as garbage, expendable, NOT willing to give public jobs, the public sector a decent income is "bad politics"...The "bussiness/market sector" dominating all others...an insane sort of tunnelvision...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924799-delta-variant-tearing-through-some-states-despite-high-covid-vaccine-rates[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924799-delta-variant-tearing-through-some-states-despite-high-covid-vaccine-rates ;DJ The link does not open in the EU....But the point is vaccines do NOT offer 100 % protection...As far as I know most vaccines are seen as very good if they offer 90% protection against an illness or infection...

Delta-and Delta+ variants are "exploding"still. Since we do not test ad random large scale in the vaccinated we do not have any idea of the a/pre-symptomatic spread. Contact tracing gets as good as impossible that way ! If 80% is asymptomatic spread there are 5 steps between one detected infected person and the next-on average. Lot of spread is in/via unvaccinated children...

Some variants/mutations (Delta/Delta+ is the main global variant for months now !) will even evade testing...

Some experts claim Delta R0=between 5 and 8 so uou need BOTH !!! vaccines AND restrictions...get the level of cases under 35 per 100,000 (that kind of numbers per day/week ? ) and we are not doing that !

So YES it will get worse ! We did see four global waves (more or less) and very limited vaccine/natural protection is NOT enough to stop the next wave in the coming months ! 

In october 2020 "Alfa-UK" variant started spreading in Kent-the UK...Why not something similar will happen this year  in some country ? Conditions did not change that much...even less restrictions in most places...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; Unsustainable natural gas prices spiking in Europe… it’s not even winter yet. Leaders are expressing real angst over the ability to adequately heat homes soon. Fertilizers next year, meat processing, and carbonated soft drinks also affected. Green alternatives?

DJ Lets go political ! You can claim there is a health-crisis, a housing-crisis, an education crisis, an energy crisis...Basically there is a political crisis ! You can not consume two Earths when there is only one planet Earth ! Politics need to get realistic-do more with less ! 

This pandemic in part became worldwide due to (unlimited) international airtravel...We still not see any discussion on that ! Airpolution, traffic accidents killing millions each year is "normal" ???? The "old normal" was sick ! Destroying the planet ! 

Yet politics still stick to the "old normal" is "our goal"! (Very unnice words here....) We need other politicians, other goals ! Public interest should be #1 and #2 and #3 !!!! Not big bussinesses !!!

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVW2QqHUJUw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVW2QqHUJUw "Antiviral gamechanger"...on the Merck oral antiviral pill...info under the video...

One of the reasons I did/do put a link to Dr.J.C. is that I more and more disagree with him...I find twitters often more informative. Dr.J.C. main goal is "to calm people down"...His claim that "natural infection" on top of vaccinations is "boosting immunity" I find disgusting...

I often wonder what Dr.J.C.'s links are with the UK conservative (BoJo) party/UK government...does he get paid by them for his video's ? 

I also totally disagree with [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/west-side-of-la-palma-volcano-cone-has-collapsed[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/west-side-of-la-palma-volcano-cone-has-collapsed  his political views. But his views are often based on emotions I can get...He is not claiming to be "neutral" or "objective"....

Hal Turner did claim "people in Australia (a.o.) were picked up by police and forced to get a vaccine...That kind of insanity...Point is a lot of people take that for "real news"...The US for news/public information is at around #60 worldwide, even doing worse then Poland...

One of the major disasters in this pandemic is in communications..."(anti)social media" (again) being a major factor-in part because "other media" make a mess of it...are to closely linked with "politics/industry"....Here in NL most of the misinformation came from the government..."our" healthminister claiming it was OK to hug-but not to shake hands...The Dutch CDC/NIH becoming a political tool...

This pandemic is caused by bad politics and is only getting worse due bad politics...It IS a political crisis in every way you can think of !

Music ; Eloise - Barry Ryan [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9md5oW00q4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9md5oW00q4 hysterical rock...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Ryan_(singer)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_Ryan_(singer) ; Barry Ryan (born Barry Sapherson; 24 October 1948 – 28 September 2021) was a British pop singer and photographer. He achieved his initial success in the mid 1960s in a duo with his twin brother Paul. After Paul ceased performing to concentrate solely on songwriting, Barry became a solo artist. His most successful hit, "Eloise", reached number 2 on the UK Singles Chart in 1968.

DJ He would be in my Top Ten...with a lot of other songs...OK-top 100 or so...enjoy !


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 04 2021 at 9:00pm

DJ,

A look at numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; New Zealand trends cases +68%...last week 112 this week 188 cases...Delta may be "out of control"; impossible to get back to "zero-CoViD" in a short time even if you try so hard...Asymptomatic spread may be a major factor...

Worldometers has the global reported number of deaths on 4,822,761 at this moment. Proberbly a bit higher when you look at that number-but far from the 5 million some other statistics show. A gap of 3% in the numbers indicating these numbers are only indications...

Another notion on "numbers" in NL news [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/04/coronavirus-average-rises-4th-straight-day-covid-hospital-total-increases[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/04/coronavirus-average-rises-4th-straight-day-covid-hospital-total-increases and [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen some reports come up with NL cases on a weekly basis now +2%...[url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen Worldometers has cases at +1%.

Global cases -8%, deaths -10% but in Europe cases are +8%, deaths +5%, Oceania (Australia, New Zealand etc. cases/deaths +13%). 

We may be getting to another turning point soon with cases going up again in many places-driven by Delta variants. The real number of cases most likely is much higher-but most stay "under the radar" do give no/mild symptoms...so far. A lot of spread will be in children/young people that do have better immunity. 

With decreasing vaccine protection-allready limited against infection, so far doing much better in keeping hospital cases down, the news is not good. 

By now 77 countries reporting increases of cases, 65 countries see increase of deaths. 

-Flutrackers latest news;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924863-cidrap-covid-19-scan-duration-of-covid-19-immunity-kids-mental-health-during-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924863-cidrap-covid-19-scan-duration-of-covid-19-immunity-kids-mental-health-during-pandemic ; Model predicts natural COVID-19 immunity wanes fast, re-infection likely

Reinfection from SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions will most likely occur at a median of 16 months, according to a modeling study published late last week in The Lancet Microbe.
The researchers looked at the human-infecting coronaviruses SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, HCoV-229E, HCoV-OC43, and HCoV-NL63 from Feb 12 to Jun 15, 2020, analyzing about 58 alphacoronavirus, 105 betacoronavirus, 11 deltacoronavirus, and 3 gammacoronavirus genome sequences. 

They compared peak-infection and reinfection data in endemic scenarios. The method also used antibody optical density data spanning 128 days to 28 years post-infection from 1984 to 2020.
According to the model they derived from the data, reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur from 3 months and 5.1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. 

This is less than half the time for other endemic human-infecting coronaviruses (e.g., HCoV-OC43 was associated with 15 months to 10 years). Even for SARS-CoV, the virus that causes SARS and is closest in time range, the model projected a range of 4 months to 6 years.
"Reinfection can reasonably happen in three months or less," said lead author Jeffrey Townsend, PhD, in a University of North Carolina (UNC) at Charlotte press release. "Therefore, those who have been naturally infected should get vaccinated. Previous infection alone can offer very little long-term protection against subsequent infections."
The study author conclude, "Our results caution that reinfection will become increasingly common as pandemic disease transitions into endemic disease."

DJ Of course waning natural immunity can give some info on waning vaccine immunity. There is discussion on "booster vaccines" wich groups would need them. Also governments are making plans on what kind of level of vaccinations may be needed next year. Here in NL the government did reserve money for two extra vaccinations in 2022. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924862-cidrap-news-scan-new-diagnostic-tool-for-superbugs-yellow-fever-in-nigeria-plague-vaccine-contract[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924862-cidrap-news-scan-new-diagnostic-tool-for-superbugs-yellow-fever-in-nigeria-plague-vaccine-contract 

DJ plague-vaccines ! Better detection tools...welcome developments !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924859-israel-tightens-covid-%E2%80%98green-pass%E2%80%99-rules-sparking-protest[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924859-israel-tightens-covid-%E2%80%98green-pass%E2%80%99-rules-sparking-protest ; Israel restricted its COVID Green Pass on Sunday to allow only those who have received a vaccine booster dose or recently recuperated from coronavirus to enter indoor venues. The new criteria mean that nearly 2 million people will lose their vaccination passport in the coming days.

Israel is the first country to make a booster shot a requirement for its digital vaccination passport. The move is widely seen as a step to encourage booster vaccination among those who have yet to receive a third dose.

Under the new guidelines, people must have received a booster shot to be eligible for a green pass. Those who have received two vaccine doses, and those who have recovered from coronavirus, will be issued passes valid for six months after the date of their vaccination or recovery.

DJ Israel cases trends -34%, deathsstill high +37% last week 116 deaths, thisweek 159 deaths=17 deaths per million !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated?view=stream latest ; Fact Check-Data from Public Health England does not undermine role of COVID-19 vaccines

By Reuters Fact Check
...
On page 20, this figure of 2,542 is broken down by vaccination status. Among the fully vaccinated (more than 14 days after a second dose) there were 1,613 deaths (63.4% of the total). Among the unvaccinated there were 722 deaths (28.4% of the total). The remaining deaths were among the partially vaccinated.
...
Reuters Fact Check has previously addressed social media posts questioning why more cases and deaths might be reported amongst a vaccinated population than an unvaccinated one.

“The data should be interpreted taking into consideration the context of very high vaccine coverage in the UK population. Even with a highly effective vaccine, it is expected that a large proportion of cases would occur in vaccinated individuals, simply because a larger proportion of the population are vaccinated than unvaccinated,” a spokesperson for PHE previously told Reuters via email (here).

Dr Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St Andrews, also told Reuters that when much of a population has been vaccinated, “most infections and deaths are expected to be among those vaccinated”.
...

DJ This story is "not good enough"...you can make more calculations on how good vaccines offer protection for what age groups/gender...also looking at when people did get vaccinated...What is the "best" time for a booster vaccine resulting in lowest number of vaccinated still getting infected and more severe illness. What is the eason effect" in this...will it get worse with winter coming ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ai/924852-emerging-infectious-disease-yezo-virus-caused-by-a-new-tickborne-nairovirus-identified-in-japan[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ai/924852-emerging-infectious-disease-yezo-virus-caused-by-a-new-tickborne-nairovirus-identified-in-japan ; A previously unknown virus that can infect humans and cause disease has been identified by scientists in Japan. The novel infectious virus, named Yezo virus and transmitted by tick bites, causes a disease characterized by fever and a reduction in blood platelets and leucocytes. The discovery was made by researchers at Hokkaido University and colleagues, and the results have been published in the journal Nature Communications.

Keita Matsuno, a virologist at Hokkaido University’s International Institute for Zoonosis Control, said: “At least seven people have been infected with this new virus in Japan since 2014, but, so far, no deaths have been confirmed.”

The Yezo virus was discovered after a 41-year-old man was admitted to the hospital in 2019 with fever and leg pain after being bitten by an arthropod believed to be a tick while he was walking in a local forest in Hokkaido. He was treated and discharged after two weeks, but tests showed he had not been infected with any known viruses carried by ticks in the region. A second patient showed up with similar symptoms after a tick bite the following year.

DJ No "Human-to-human/H2H" spread, still nasty because ticks seem to be causing a lot of health issues (a.o. Lyme-disease).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/922030-new-zealand-battling-delta-variant?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/922030-new-zealand-battling-delta-variant?view=stream latest; 

New Zealand admits it can no longer get rid of coronavirus


Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a cautious plan to ease lockdown restrictions in Auckland, despite an outbreak there that continues to simmer.

Since early in the pandemic, New Zealand had pursued an unusual zero-tolerance approach to the virus through strict lockdowns and aggressive contact tracing.
...
The outbreak has grown to more than 1,300 cases, with 29 more detected on Monday. A few cases have been found outside of Auckland.
..
But Ardern said that most measures would remain in place to keep the outbreak under control, including exhaustive contact tracing and isolating those who got infected.

DJ As far as I did follow it, most cases are in Auckland...just like in Australia some regions may see no/limited cases and will not "be happy" with more lifting of restrictions. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924878-china-new-closures-in-yining-xinjiang-province-due-to-covid-19-infections-railroads-leaving-out-of-town-suspended-10-days-ago-october-5-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924878-china-new-closures-in-yining-xinjiang-province-due-to-covid-19-infections-railroads-leaving-out-of-town-suspended-10-days-ago-october-5-2021 ; According to CCTV News Client, on October 3, during a routine nucleic acid test in Khorgos City, Ili Prefecture, Xinjiang, two people were found to have positive nucleic acid test results. They were all asymptomatic patients with new coronary pneumonia after being diagnosed by experts. . On October 4th, the National Health Commission dispatched a working group to Yili to guide the handling of the epidemic. At 16:30 on the 4th, the Press Office of the People's Government of Horgos City held a press conference and announced that the city's first round of nucleic acid testing results were all negative. At present, the city's second round of nucleic acid testing has been carried out.

DJ China trends; 0 deaths for weeks, cases -33%, last week 312, this week 208. Winter will make the "Zero-CoViD strategy" harder.https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924813-vaccinated-or-not-everyone-is-likely-to-get-covid-19-at-some-point-many-experts-say[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924813-vaccinated-or-not-everyone-is-likely-to-get-covid-19-at-some-point-many-experts-say ; Sooner or later, we’re all going to get COVID-19, many experts say.

Even if we’re fully vaccinated.
“The idea that we’re going to live our lives without ever getting it is a fantasy — and a dangerous one,” said Andrew Noymer, an epidemiologist and demographer at UC Irvine. “A lot of people just don’t understand that. We’re all going to get it.”

While many experts agree, this idea — like most everything in science-as-it-unfolds-before-your-very-eyes — is not universally embraced...

DJ The hope is CoViD will develop towards a cold-virus. The facts however may hint in the opposite direction-higher viral loads, more disease...So a need to avoid "we are all getting the virus" ! Or at least try to spread the disease burden over a longer time. It would be welcome if more investments in healthcare would be made !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924811-dept-of-defense-study-of-medicare-enrollees-waning-effect-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-5-6m-u-s-study-cohort[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/924811-dept-of-defense-study-of-medicare-enrollees-waning-effect-of-covid-19-vaccines-in-5-6m-u-s-study-cohort ; Hospitalizations in vaccinated breakthroughs 21% vs 32% rate pre-vaccine. (I wonder if this is from increasing monoclonal antibody intervention or other early treatment or human decisions about relative risks?)
Hospital cases ending up in ICU were 31% vs 32%.
Deaths were 4% vs 12%. (This was a dramatic reduction, but how much of the improvement was from better treatments developed later in the pandemic? Also was the later cohort more heavily weighted with under 75 yrs of age?)

The last slide (17) has the hospitalization risks they found per condition if you are interested.

https://www.humetrix.com/powerpoint-vaccine.html

DJ I have to read further to understand it.....21% of cases now in vaccinated ? 32% "pre-vaccine"=reinfection rate ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924815-autism-spectrum-disorder-patients-may-be-susceptible-to-covid-19-disease-due-to-deficiency-in-melatonin[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/924815-autism-spectrum-disorder-patients-may-be-susceptible-to-covid-19-disease-due-to-deficiency-in-melatonin ; Abstract: Patients with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) may be particularly prone to develop COVID-19. An unusual extended course of COVID-19 disease illness has been reported in one ASD patient and a group of patients have COVID-19 disease in a neurodevelopmental facility. 

It has been widely reported that many of those with ASD have substantial sleep disorders with low levels of melatonin and various genetic alterations related to melatonin production have been found. 

Several lines of evidence point to a substantial role of melatonin in the body’s innate defense system including acting as a scavenger, an antioxidant and modulating the immune system. 

We therefore hypothesize that melatonin deficiency may predispose those ASD patients who have low melatonin output to COVID-19 disease. Potential implications for treatment are discussed.

DJ Maybe Melatonin could be included in "boosting immunity" list of supplements (also vitamin D, C, zinc etc.) to become "best prepared" even after vaccination if we can not stop the virus. (Also Melatonin usuable for better diagnoses/treatment of autism/ASD ?)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924817-israel-considering-shelving-the-green-pass-regime-in-favor-of-the-more-lenient-%E2%80%9Cpurple-badge%E2%80%9D-mandate-after-protests[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924817-israel-considering-shelving-the-green-pass-regime-in-favor-of-the-more-lenient-%E2%80%9Cpurple-badge%E2%80%9D-mandate-after-protestsThey are also considering shelving the Green Pass regime in favor of the more lenient “purple badge” mandate for outdoor restaurant spaces, gyms, outdoor events, swimming pools, museums and libraries.

Purple badge restrictions mean anyone can access the locations, provided that social distancing rules are enforced and overcrowding is avoided.

Meanwhile, some Israelis were red with anger at the imposition of the Green Pass, which requires vaccination and testing to enter public venues.

DJ Colourfull story...I rather see social distance, no vaccine passports then vaccine passports and no social distance. Since giving up social distance in NL casesare going up...

-Other news;

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/iran-deploys-tanks-armor-artillery-to-azerbaijan-border-turkey-deploys-its-army-in-azerbaijan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/iran-deploys-tanks-armor-artillery-to-azerbaijan-border-turkey-deploys-its-army-in-azerbaijan 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/it-s-official-taiwanese-foreign-minister-warns-his-country-is-preparing-for-war-with-china[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/it-s-official-taiwanese-foreign-minister-warns-his-country-is-preparing-for-war-with-china 

DJ-Russia-Iran-China is THE power in Asia...Turkey may be trying to get more influence in Asia (is also in competition with Saudi Arabia as "best protector of Islam"...) Erdogan may be overplaying...soon will be in conflict with both the west (for fighting Kurds in Syria, Iraq a.o.) and the east (supporting Azerbaijan against RIC interests). 

China and India both will try all they can to avoid a major conflict. China would like to have "more control" over Taiwan-but most likely via a "Hong Kong scenario" ; control over the Taiwan government..The US seems to be "rethinking" its "one China policy". For Bejing/RIC US (UK, Australia, NATO) dealing with Taiwan as "another China" is unacceptable. US weapons/military in Taiwan may be a red line. 

However "asymetric actions" could see RIC supporting (or organizing) "independent movements" in Hawaii, Alaska, Texas, California...Economic warfare is allready a fact-with RIC going for an alternative SWIFT international banking system, dumping the US$, bonds etc. 

If there is an escalation it may be false flag-like. Israel/US attacking air bases in Azerbeijan to blame Russia/Iran...Israel did attack Iran tankers in open waters, claiming Iran agression when Iran reacts...

Pakistan is in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor...(like India and Iran also member of Shanghai Cooperation Organization...). Pakistan was also involved on the Azeri side in the short war with Armenia...Turkey-Iran-Pakistan (TIP) is getting frustrated by Turkey/Erdogan...Maybe resulting in PRIC ? (Pakistan-Russia-Iran-China cooperation). Russia has major influence in India...(and Israel). 

Playing with fire can however start a fire...

Cyber warfare [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberwarfare[/url]or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyberwarfare in my opinion has a lot of similarity with "real wars". From "info gathering" and spying-without being detected to (try to ) take over of "controls"...Israel/US did attack the Iran nuclear program [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet .

A very likely scenario is "outsourcing" of some of the warfare to "criminal organizations" (a.o. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ransomware[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ransomware ) so countries can deny their own role in it. (Just like international crime may have a lot of "intel links"-partly funding operations to fight crime...). 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Rp_SprT9AU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Rp_SprT9AU BP Earth Watch on the La Palma volcanic eruption. Can lava-flows decrease tsunami risks ? DJ-If there is a "very major" volcanic explosion there may still be some risks...

Bio-warfare, some claim China "started" this pandemic, may be a growing risk. The more infectious diseases the more there is a risk of "groups" sending/using an infected person/hosts to spread disease...Not providing vaccines can get close to bio-warfare...

-Music; The Vaccines - I Want You To Want Me, I Need You To Need Me (this is a Cheap Trick) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qgpewMCVjs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qgpewMCVjs 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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I haven't heard of anyone in NZ being angry that restrictions are going to be eased. Everyone seems to be delighted and certainly in our national newspapers various groups have been calling for a relaxation of restrictions for weeks now. There are a lot of small businesses that are really struggling under the restrictions that really don't make sense. 

To give you an example. There's a cafe in my local town that does great coffee. Under level 3 restrictions you can call them and order a coffee and then wait in the street until they indicate that your coffee is ready and then they have to put it on a table outside and you can come and pick it up. But if you're walking down the street and think I'd like a coffee, you can't stop at the door and order one because you're not allowed to speak to them, so you have to call them. But you can't stand at the door and call them, you have to walk down the street and call them. The cafe owner told me that she's lost a lot of business over this and it got to the point where she actually shut the cafe because she was losing money being open, but if she had been allowed to take coffee orders from the door she'd have been ok. 

Some of the rules have just been plain stupid. For example in the supermarket there are marks on the floor to stand on so you are two meters from the person in front, but yesterday I was on my mark and so was the lady at the next checkout queue to me and we were standing less than a meter apart but in different queues. Obviously, in a supermarket setting, the virus can't move sideways!!!!!!! 

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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KiwiMum, New Zealand was/is very ambitious in its CoViD-strategy...And yes-we had supermarket-lines where you keep good distance from the one in front of you, but next to you it may be just 1 meter, coffee/cookies take away...New Zealand is moving into summer now...

[url]https://twitter.com/wicmar[/url] or https://twitter.com/wicmar is from New Zealand ...so NZ will also see vaccine passports, masks etc. trying to keep CoViD community spread at 0 the best one can. 

[url]https://www.greens.org.nz/govt_plan_risks_vulnerable_communities[/url] or https://www.greens.org.nz/govt_plan_risks_vulnerable_communities

“Elimination has protected thousands of lives in Aotearoa. We have to stay the course to keep everyone safe. Now is not the right time to change our approach, particularly when so many of our vulnerable communities are still at risk,” says Green Co-leader Marama Davidson.

“We need a clear coordinated approach which prioritises our most vulnerable right now. We have seen the tragic consequences overseas when restrictions are eased too early.

DJ I am NOT neutral, not an "expert", not "objective"....but I rather can not get coffee walking down the street than see several people per day die from an avoidable disease. Maybe the level of vaccine protection in NZ still is not good enough. Certainly the Maori, other vulnarable groups may face more risks...

On the long run I do not see an alternative for Zero-Covid..."living with the virus=living with a worsening pandemic"...

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ tend upward though worldwide still -7% for cases, -10% for deaths, 72 countries reporting increases...October 5 did see 411,101 cases, 7,487 deaths being reported. We are stll close to 50,000 deaths per week being reported. 

US cases/deaths -12%, UK cases -2%, deaths -16%, NL cases +2%, deaths -15%, Israel cases -32, deaths +42% (most of them before booster vaccines started). Waning immunity in combination with limited vaccination levels and worsening weather do mean increase of cases. 

October 2020 did see the UK detecting first cases of what would become the Alfa/UK variant. There is to limited vaccine protection-in general-to NOT expect some new variant taking its chance this autumn...

Again-as a non-expert-I think there is no alternative for a "zero-covid strategy". Corona-virusses are NOT flu-like...We may be not that far away from two major developments;

1 Immunity evading variants infecting people over and over again

2 Covid-19 spread on a major scale in non-human hosts

On the long run CoViD-19 may become somewhat milder...but "a cold is still a cold", "flu is still flu" and CoViD-19 may stay more nasty then both of them...SARS-1, MERS are even worse...to give an indication in wich direction CoViD-19/SARS-2 may develop if we do not STOP THE SPREAD !!!

In absolute numbers this pandemic is allready the worst in recent history...worser then the Spanish Flu. In relative numbers something like 20%-30% of the impact of the Spanish Flu...in general. 

A combination of high energy prices and a new pandemic wave may increase social unrest. 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-emerging-diseases-and-other-health-threats/924949-mystery-fever-kills-24-children-8-kids-die-within-hours-of-being-infected[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-emerging-diseases-and-other-health-threats/924949-mystery-fever-kills-24-children-8-kids-die-within-hours-of-being-infected ; At least 24 children in the northern Indian state of Haryana have died from a mysterious fever. Eight children reportedly died hours after being infected by the fever, local reports claimed.

-

The Haryana Health Department has, however, failed to identify the mysterious disease or its cause. The authorities have collected blood samples of the deceased kids to identify the illness...

-

There's bad smoke pollution in the area currently. That will make respiratory diseases worse for children.

DJ There have been outbreaks of H5N1 bird flu in India in recent months...could it be a "high speed Delta+" variant ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/924927-the-lancet-the-durability-of-immunity-against-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/924927-the-lancet-the-durability-of-immunity-against-sars-cov-2

By late 2020, with the emergence of several COVID variants (Alpha, Beta, P.1., etc.) we began to see unexpected surges of the pandemic virus - even among populations with a presumed high degree of acquired immunity (see The Lancet: Resurgence of COVID-19 in Manaus, Brazil, Despite High Seroprevalence).

Hopes gradually shifted from naturally acquired immunity, to vaccination. But as we now know - while they offer good initial protection - their protective effect appears to wane over 6 to 8 months, requiring booster shots.

While appealing, the notion that COVID-19 would be a `one-and-done' infection (like measles or chickenpox) - and `the pandemic would quickly burn itself out' - was a bit naive, and probably based more on hope than on science. The same could be said for the durability of the vaccine.

-

Unless some new scientific breakthrough changes the equation - or the SARS-CoV-2 virus mutates into a much less `biologically fit' pathogen - COVID appear to be here to stay.


For those who eschew the vaccine because they've `had COVID', and therefore believe themselves to be now and forever immune, this study should raise some red flags.

While contracting the virus every 6 to 18 months is arguably the most `natural' way to gain temporary immunity, there are some decided downsides (death, hospitalization, disability, etc.) to consider.


Vaccines (including boosters) can provide similar - or likely even better - protection, with far less risk.

Neither option is ideal, but those - for now, at least - are the two we have to choose from. At least for those of us who are lucky enough to live in a country where the vaccines are readily available.

DJ There is discussion on "natural immunity" being better/lasting longer...My major worry is CoViD-19 is a "moving target" that keeps mutating, creating new ways to spread more-often with higher viral loads...Even if you vaccinate 100% of the population from 0 to 120 y/o-the vaccine offering 90% protection still this virus may find ways to spread...Asymptomatic spread in itself may not be a burden to healthcare...problem is as long as it is spreading it will keep mutating...new variants may bring that burden later on...

In the 19th century better healthcare/hygiene, sewage, better ventilation/housing did see a serious decrease of infectious disease. Life expectency has been 40 years-at best-for most. The 20th century did see life expectency almost double ! Anti-biotics, better health care did limit a lot of infectious disease...Flu became much less deadly-both by massive vaccinations and-because of that-better healthcare (available) for those who did get the flu...

We now face a global healthcare crisis that may last decades (If climate collapse gives us that much time) with life expectency decreasing, more chronic disease, more problems containing other diseases..."Living with the virus" means millions of people will die extra each year...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924954-russia-breaks-daily-coronavirus-deaths-record[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924954-russia-breaks-daily-coronavirus-deaths-recordRussia broke its daily coronavirus deaths record again on Tuesday as the rising toll and the spike in new cases prompt regional response centers to reimpose restrictions that have been absent since the start of the year.

The government tally reported 895 Covid-19 deaths across Russia in the past 24 hours, bringing the official death toll based on daily figures to 211,696 — the highest in Europe.

Russia has now reported all-time high numbers of one-day Covid deaths for six out of the last eight days.

Russia’s Covid information center also reported 25,110 new infections, figures not seen since the height of the last wave of the outbreak in January. Russia is the world’s fifth most affected country by the pandemic with 7.6 million total coronavirus cases.
...
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/...-record-a75214

DJ In most of eastern Europe cases go up high speed. From Finland cases +32%, Poland cases +47%, Romania cases +51%, Ukraine also cases +47%...are there some new variations of Delta spreading ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/924978-quant-imaging-med-surg-a-human-infection-case-with-avian-origin-h10n3-influenza-virus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/surveillance-and-epidemic-control/924978-quant-imaging-med-surg-a-human-infection-case-with-avian-origin-h10n3-influenza-virus linking to [url]https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/73358/html[/url] or https://qims.amegroups.com/article/view/73358/html ; Avian H10N3 influenza virus has been circulated in waterfowl and territory poultry for several decades in eastern and southern Asia (1,2). So far, there has been no reported outbreak of H10N3 avian influenza virus in poultry farm or wild field. However, the virus spillover from the natural reservoir into human is still a concern for public health. Hereby, we report the first case of human infection with avian H10N3 influenza virus

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There have been reports of human infections with a number of avian influenza virus, such as H5N1, H7N9, H10N8 and H7N4 influenza viruses (2-5). To our knowledge, this is the first avian influenza in human caused by H10N3 influenza virus. Similar to the reported human infections by H5N1, H7N9 and H10N8 influenza viruses, H10N3 influenza virus could also cause severe pneumonia (6-9). This patient presented with upper respiratory tract symptoms in the early stage of the disease, but in the course of anti-infection treatment, the disease developed into respiratory distress syndrome within days of admission.

The CT findings of H10H3 avian influenza virus pneumonia in our case included consolidation and multi-segmental ground glass opacities. In parts of consolidation, air bronchogram sign was seen. The CT findings of pneumonia by H10N3 influenza virus is similar to in other genotypes of avian influenza reported previously (6). As no other cases have been identified thus far, the human-to-human transmission of H10N3 may not be a public concern. It is possible that the underlying diseases (hypertension and diabetes) make the patient susceptible to H10N3 infection.

DJ How vulnarable are long-CoViD patients for all kinds of bird-flu ? Infections that may stay unnoticed in healthy people may show up with symptomps in the more vulnarable population. See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/924930-china-new-avian-influenza-a-h9n2-case-in-guizhou-province-reported-to-w-h-o-on-september-14-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/924930-china-new-avian-influenza-a-h9n2-case-in-guizhou-province-reported-to-w-h-o-on-september-14-2021 ; One new case of human infection with avian influenza A(H9N2) was reported from National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China to WHO on 14 September 2021.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza#Subtypes[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza#Subtypes has a list of most known H-N combinations (from H1N1 to H15N9).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924972-commonalities-between-covid-19-and-radiation-injury[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/924972-commonalities-between-covid-19-and-radiation-injury ; As investigators begin to identify early markers of disease, identification of common threads with other pathologies may provide some clues. 

Interestingly, years of research in the field of radiation biology documents the complex multi-organ nature of another disease state that occurs after exposure to high doses of radiation: the acute radiation syndrome (ARS). 

Inflammation is a key common player in COVID-19 and ARS, and drives the multi-system damage that dramatically alters biological homeostasis. 


Both conditions initiate a cytokine storm, with similar pro-inflammatory molecules increased and other anti-inflammatory molecules decreased. 

These changes manifest in a variety of ways, with a demonstrably higher health impact in patients having underlying medical conditions. 

The potentially dramatic human impact of ARS has guided the science that has identified many biomarkers of radiation exposure, established medical management strategies for ARS, and led to the development of medical countermeasures for use in the event of a radiation public health emergency. 

These efforts can now be leveraged to help elucidate mechanisms of action of COVID-19 injuries. Furthermore, this intersection between COVID-19 and ARS may point to approaches that could accelerate the discovery of treatments for both.

DJ New findings can be usefull in a much wider field...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/924970-melatonin-for-the-early-treatment-of-covid-19-a-narrative-review-of-current-evidence-and-possible-efficacy[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/924970-melatonin-for-the-early-treatment-of-covid-19-a-narrative-review-of-current-evidence-and-possible-efficacy ; Abstract: Objective
To discuss the use of melatonin as an early treatment option on the first day of diagnosis for COVID-19.
Methods
Medical Subject Headings terms “COVID-19” and “viral diseases” were manually searched on PubMed, and relevant articles were included.
Results
The results showed that melatonin acts to reduce reactive oxygen species–mediated damage, cytokine-induced inflammation, and lymphopenia in viral diseases similar to COVID-19.
Conclusion
These conclusions provide evidence for potential benefits in melatonin use for COVID-19 treatment as early as the day of diagnosis.

DJ Some people may produce less melatonin (link with Autism-was an item yesterday..) using melatonin (in a wise way !) also helps getting a better sleep, boosting immunity. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924985-j-infect-dis-duration-of-viral-nucleic-acid-shedding-and-early-reinfection-with-the-severe-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-sars-cov-2-in-health-care-workers-and-first-responders[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924985-j-infect-dis-duration-of-viral-nucleic-acid-shedding-and-early-reinfection-with-the-severe-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-sars-cov-2-in-health-care-workers-and-first-responders ; We estimated the distributions of duration of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid shedding and time to reinfection among 137 persons with at least two positive nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) results from March to September 2020. 

We analyzed gaps of varying length between subsequent positive and negative NAAT results and estimated a mean duration of nucleic acid shedding of 30.1 (95% CI 26.3, 34.5) days. 

The mean time to reinfection was 89.1 (95% CI 75.3, 103.5) days. Together, these indicate that a 90-day period between positive NAAT results can reliably define reinfection in immunocompetent persons although reinfection can occur at shorter intervals.

DJ It may be sometimes hard to see if someone did get reinfected or still is in the initial infection...It may also be of interest to see what persons do see several (re)infections and why. Is the body having a problem in getting rid of the virus-so it can become active more then once ? May start inflamations in some parts of the body while other parts have gotten rid of the virus ? 

Or could immunity be less ? Being evaded more often in some hosts ? We need much better monitoring and sequencing, testing !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924953-china-pcr-test-orders-soared-before-first-confirmed-covid-case[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924953-china-pcr-test-orders-soared-before-first-confirmed-covid-case ; TOKYO -- Purchases of PCR tests in China's Hubei Province surged months before the first official reports of a novel coronavirus case there, according to a report by Australia-based cybersecurity company Internet 2.0.

About 67.4 million yuan ($10.5 million at current rates) was spent on PCR tests in Hubei during 2019, nearly double the 2018 total, with the upswing starting in May, according to the report.

Internet 2.0 collected and analyzed data from a website that aggregates information on public procurement bids in China. The analysis team consists of former officials from intelligence agencies in the U.S., the U.K., Australia, and other countries.
...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Co...med-COVID-case

DJ There may be good reasons for China using more PCR-tests in 2019-does not have to be related with an earlier start of SARS-2 in China. [url]https://www.rt.com/news/536612-china-pcr-testing-equipment/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/536612-china-pcr-testing-equipment/

An Australia-based firm wants the Five Eyes to look into its suspicions that a surge in the procurement of PCR testing equipment in Wuhan, China means the Covid-19 pandemic started earlier than officially reported.

The claim was made by an analytics company called Internet 2.0, which counts the Australian government among its clients, based on open-source data detailing Chinese government contracts. In 2019, there was an unusual surge in purchases of lab equipment for polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing in the Hubei province, the report said.

-

Internet 2.0’s own analysis shows that purchases of PCR testing equipment have been steadily rising in China, and particularly in the Hubei province, over the years. It highlighted three particular contracts as going “out of trend” in Hubei – made in May, September, and November 2019. They supposedly indicate that China was dealing with the novel coronavirus months before the outbreak in Wuhan was officially detected in December 2019.


Skeptics have come up with alternative explanations. The surge in the acquisition of PCR testing equipment “correlates with the 2017 start of China’s Global Virome Project,” a US government source told The Australian. They were referring to the US-initiated international project to identify and study diseases threatening to jump from animal to humans, of which China became a strong supporter.

“The increase in orders correlates with the time period in which the US CDC and NIH were helping China expand its infectious disease/influenza surveillance capacity,” the source said. “The increase in orders also occurs during the time when EcoHealth Alliance and PREDICT was increasing China’s laboratory capacity.”

The US/UK is out for another confrontation...Reminds me of the "Weapons of Mass Destruction" Iraq would have in 2003. Iraq did work on WMD...during the war with Iran with Saudi/western money...at that time an ally of "the West"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924944-cidrap-covid-19-scan-covid-variant-severity-convalescent-plasma-and-covid-19-excess-pandemic-deaths[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/924944-cidrap-covid-19-scan-covid-variant-severity-convalescent-plasma-and-covid-19-excess-pandemic-deaths ; COVID-19 variants of concern (VOCs), especially the Delta (B1617.2) variant, are more virulent than the wild type, according to an Ontario-based study published in CMAJ yesterday. The cohort included 212,326 cases of non-VOCs (22.4%) and VOCs with the N501Y mutation (76.7%), such as Alpha (B117), Beta (B1351), Gamma (P1), and Delta.
The researchers found that the VOCs had a 52% increased risk of hospitalization (95% confidence interval [CI], 42% to 63%), 89% increased risk of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (95% CI, 67% to 117%), and a 51% increased risk of death (95% CI, 30% to 78%).
The Delta variant, although only 2.8% of the sample size, was associated with a 108% increased risk of infection (95% CI, 78% to 140%), a 235% increased risk of ICU admission (95% CI, 160% to 331%), and a 133% higher risk of death (95% CI, 54% to 231%).
Data also indicated that those infected by VOCs were significantly younger and less likely to have comorbidities compared with those infected with the wild-type virus.

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The study included COVID-19 tests that took place Feb 7 to June 26. During that time, Delta was first detected in Canada in April, and by July, it was the predominant strain.

DJ The MSM/politics would like to present Delta risks as not being that much worse...We may be in a significant higher number of cases/deaths since Delta started in India in april-6 months ago !

From the same link; Convalescent plasma didn't help critical COVID-19 patients

"We speculate that [the futility] could be a combination of too few high-quality antibodies in the plasma and these patients being too far along in their illness with a run-away inflammatory immune response for those antibodies to turn the tide," said co-senior author Derek Angus, MD, MPH, in a University of Pittsburgh press release. "It is still possible that convalescent plasma helps people in earlier stages of illness, though it is likely not efficient to use given that monoclonal antibodies … are such an effective treatment for early COVID-19."
While the study was stopped Jan 15 for futility, the researchers noted that convalescent plasma appeared to help the 126 immunocompromised patients (posterior probability of superiority, 89.8%), unless it was given more than 7 days into their hospitalization (posterior probability of harm, 90.3%). However, the sample size was too small to draw any conclusions.

and 

Excess pandemic deaths in the United States were disproportionately higher in Black, American Indian/Alaska Native, and Latino people than in White and Asian people, according to a study today in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The researchers used Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and US Census Bureau data to compare mortality per 100,000 people from March to December 2020 with the corresponding months in 2019. Excess deaths by racial population size were calculated under the assumption that the 2019 population sizes still held true.

DJ One of the red lines during the pandemic is that the elite that is causing climate change, pandemics, is hurt the least of all groups...It is the poor that suffer the most.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924935-risk-of-death-more-than-130-higher-with-delta-variant-than-original-covid-virus-research-suggests[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924935-risk-of-death-more-than-130-higher-with-delta-variant-than-original-covid-virus-research-suggests ; A new study using Canadian data suggests the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus causes more serious disease and is associated with an increased risk of death compared to previous strains — dangers that are drastically reduced with vaccination.

The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Toronto and published Tuesday in the Canadian Medical Association Journal, analyzed more than 212,000 cases of COVID-19 reported in Ontario between Feb. 7 and June 27.

They found that those infected with the alpha variant, which drove the province's third wave in the early spring, or the beta or gamma variants were 52 per cent more likely to be hospitalized, 89 per cent more likely to need intensive care and 51 per cent more likely to die of the infection than those who caught the early 2020 version of the virus.

Among delta cases, they found a 108 per cent increased risk for hospitalization, 235 per cent increased risk for ICU admission and 133 per cent increased risk for death compared to the original virus strain.

Some of the findings echo results from previous research papers published across the globe, but co-author David Fisman believes the study is the first large-scale analysis to include Canadian data.

The University of Toronto epidemiology professor said that could be an important factor for some to more strongly consider the risk that delta carries and get vaccinated...

DJ (Also discussed above) There is an exponential trend-so far- in how bad variants are getting...To get dominant they have to be able to spread faster, produce higher viral load...there may be limits to how bad variants of Covid-19 can get...but we are not there yet ! See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2  and [url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern 

DJ One should-by now-discuss Delta as being [url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#anchor_1632158924994[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#anchor_1632158924994 a "Variant of High Consequences"; 

A variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants. 

Possible attributes of a variant of high consequence: 

In addition to the possible attributes of a variant of concern

  • Impact on Medical Countermeasures (MCM)
    • Demonstrated failure of diagnostic test targets
    • Evidence to suggest a significant reduction in vaccine effectiveness, a disproportionately high number of infections in vaccinated persons, or very low vaccine-induced protection against severe disease
    • Significantly reduced susceptibility to multiple Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) or approved therapeutics
    • More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations

A variant of high consequence would require notification to WHO under the International Health Regulations, reporting to CDC, an announcement of strategies to prevent or contain transmission, and recommendations to update treatments and vaccines. 

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants

As of August 2021, Delta have been subdivided in the Pango lineage designation system into variants from AY.1 to AY.28. However, there are no information on whether such classification correlate with biological characteristic changes of the virus.[42] It is said that, as of August 2021, AY.4 to AY.11 are predominant in the UK, AY.12 in Israel, AY.2, AY.3, AY.13, AY.14, AY.25 in the US, AY.20 in the US and Mexico, AY.15 in Canada, AY.16 in Kenya, AY.17 in Ireland and Northern Ireland, AY.19 in South Africa, AY.21 in Italy and Switzerland, AY.22 in Portugal, AY.24 in Indonesia, and AY.23 in Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.[43]

As of 30 August 2021, the AY.4 variant accounted for approximately 59% of cases in the United States.[44]

"Delta plus" variant

Delta with K417N corresponds to lineages AY.1 and AY.2[45] and has been nicknamed "Delta plus" or "Nepal variant".[46] It has the K417N mutation[47] which is also present in the Beta variant.[48] The exchange at position 417 is a lysine-to-asparagine substitution.[49]

As of late July 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for approximately 15% of cases in the United States

Delta itself may have overtaken this pandemic. Some experts claim Delta may stay dominant for a longer time-with a R0 of between 5 and 8 it may becoming harder to get a variant-outside Delta-getting an even higher R0...Delta variants R0 may be getting higher during the proces...However another real risk is SARS-3 etc. like since bats in the Laos-China border area seem to have a lot of high risk coronavirusses that may jump to other hosts...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/924920-j-toxicol-sci-a-rapid-screening-assay-for-l452r-and-t478k-spike-mutations-in-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-using-high-resolution-melting-analysis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/924920-j-toxicol-sci-a-rapid-screening-assay-for-l452r-and-t478k-spike-mutations-in-sars-cov-2-delta-variant-using-high-resolution-melting-analysis ; A novel SARS-CoV-2 strain, the Delta variant (B.1.617.2), is spreading worldwide. The Delta variant has reportedly high infectivity and immune evasion potency. In June 2021, the World Health Organization categorized it as a variant of concern (VOC). 

Therefore, it is vital to develop tests that can exclusively identify the Delta variant. Here, we developed a rapid screening assay to detect characteristic mutations observed in the Delta variant using high-resolution melting (HRM) analysis. In this assay, we determined L452R and T478K, among which T478K is an identifier of the Delta variant since L452R is seen in other strains (Kappa and Epsilon variants). Additionally, nested PCR-based HRM analysis, which involved RT-PCR (1st PCR) and HRM analysis (2nd PCR), was developed to improve the specificity and sensitivity. 

Our method discriminated between the L452R mutant and wild-type L452. In addition, HRM analysis distinguished the T478K mutant from the wild-type T478. Seven clinical samples containing the Delta variant were successfully identified as L452R/T478K mutants. 

These results indicate that this HRM-based genotyping method can identify the Delta variant. This simple method should contribute to rapid identification of the Delta variant and the prevention of infection spread.

DJ If you can combine (fast) testing with screening to see what variant (variant in that variant) is infecting it may be a step forward. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924880-water-res-high-throughput-sequencing-of-sars-cov-2-in-wastewater-provides-insights-into-circulating-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924880-water-res-high-throughput-sequencing-of-sars-cov-2-in-wastewater-provides-insights-into-circulating-variants ; Non-traditional methods of surveillance such as genomic epidemiology and wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) have also been leveraged during this pandemic. Genomic epidemiology uses high-throughput sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 genomes to inform local and international transmission events, as well as the diversity of circulating variants. WBE uses wastewater to analyse community spread, as it is known that SARS-CoV-2 is shed through bodily excretions. 

Since both symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals contribute to wastewater inputs, we hypothesized that the resultant pooled sample of population-wide excreta can provide a more comprehensive picture of SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity circulating in a community than clinical testing and sequencing alone.

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The wastewater-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequence data indicates there were more lineages circulating across the sampled communities than represented in the clinical-derived data. Principal coordinate analyses identified patterns in population structure based on genetic variation within the sequenced samples, with clear trends associated with increased diversity likely due to a higher number of infected individuals relative to the sampling dates.

 We demonstrate that genetic correlation analysis combined with SNVs analysis using wastewater sampling can provide a comprehensive snapshot of the SARS-CoV-2 genetic population structure circulating within a community, which might not be observed if relying solely on clinical cases.

DJ Waste water detection may be used both for asymptomatic spread monitoring and finding-very early-what variants are spreading. (In present day in most countries what variants of Delta are spreading...)

-Dr John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKa3EZqofNo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKa3EZqofNo ; Drugs Shown to Inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 Disease: Comparative Basic and Clinical Pharmacology of Molnupiravir and Ivermectin 

There are still many nations where vaccines are not yet widely available, There is a gradual shift in focus, to antiviral drugs, 

Active treatment of new SARS-CoV-2 infections Post -vaccination breakthrough COVID-19 cases 

The two ways to get new drugs ;

1. Develop novel antiviral drugs for SARS-CoV-2  

2. Repurpose existing FDA -approved drugs to treat COVID-19 

Ivermectin is the most studied “repurposed” medication globally, in randomized clinical trials, retrospective studies and meta- analyses. 

Molnupiravir and Ivermectin Anti-SARS- CoV-2 Mechanisms, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics  ;

Molnupiravir is a broad spectrum antiviral agent against SARS- CoV-2, SARS-CoV, seasonal or pandemic influenza and MERS corona virus 

Ivermectin is an FDA-approved, WHO essential drug used as broad spectrum antiparasitic, antibiotic and which has demonstrated broad spectrum antiviral activity against RNA viruses, including HIV, Zika, MERS corona virus 

The FDA-approved drug ivermectin inhibits the replication of SARS-CoV-2 in vitro 

Ivermectin has the ability to accumulate in the lungs The anti-SARS-CoV-2 actions, both of molnupiravir and ivermectin, are dose and concentration dependent 

The cost for a package of 100 tablets of 3 mg ivermectin is $2.96. 

DJ If countries can not get vaccines, or vaccines turn out not to give the expected protection it is good there are medications available. But medications should always be used under medical supervision ! The problems with Ivermectin making headlines are caused by using the wrong dosages (or maybe fake-Ivermectin...criminals making money on internet sales ?).

-On population [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population DJ We did go from 1 billion to 2 billion people in 123 years 1804-1927. It did take us 33 years-1927 to 1960 to get to 3 billion. In 1974 we made it to 4 billion, 1987 5 billion, 1999 6 billion, 2011 7 billion and in 2023 we could go over 8 billion humans...

However most of human history there were les then 1 billion people. Life expectency did increase from 35 to 40 from pre-Roma times till 1900 is the general idea...

We now live in VERY ABNORMAL TIMES !!!! More then 8 times the number of humans we did see most of human history getting twice as old ! 

Climate collapse [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/10/glasgow-and-global-warming-to-2c-and-beyond.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/10/glasgow-and-global-warming-to-2c-and-beyond.html like this pandemic is not seeing serious actions being taken to stop it. Multi resistent bacterial diseases, other kind of diseases may be just around the corner...

The idea we may see 10 billion people in the 2050's may be getting more and more unrealistic. Both diseases and climate collapse may see 1 billion people in the 2050's becoming more realistic. 

Exponential climate change will turn Earth into a Venus-like planet in some scenario's-maybe even before the 2050's...Again-those that did the least to cause the problem suffer the most while a rich elite-that did cause the problem-may get away with it, even make money out of it..."green deals" etc. 

In out of control capitalism scarcity means higher prices. So from a food crisis, a health crisis, a housing crisis, a water crisis, a sand (for building) crisis, an energy crisis is "making money"...We need governments to work for "average Joe", the public interests ! 

Otherwise only the elite will survive !

This is a political crisis !

-Music; California Dreaming - The Seekers (version) 1966 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwxF8hfxx64[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwxF8hfxx64 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2021 at 2:56pm

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mystery-fever-india-identified-uttar-pradesh-deaths-dengue-scrub-typhus/


Mystery fever in India identified as 2 separate pathogens as death toll tops 100


New Delhi — India's health authorities have solved the mystery of an illness that has infected thousands and left more than 100 people dead in the northern state of Uttar Pradesh. The fever that confounded experts for two weeks has been identified as two separate diseases, one caused by a bacteria and the other a virus. 


Scrub yphus is a bacterial fever spread through bites from chiggers, or larval mites, found in bushes. Symptoms include fever, headache and body aches, which later progress to rashes and inflammation of the nervous system which can cause confusion and even coma.


Dengue is a viral infection that spreads through the bites of infected mosquitoes. Patients often suffer from fever, muscle and joint pain. In severe cases, as has been seen in recent outbreaks in India, the blood platelet count of the patient drops significantly, leading to internal bleeding and possible death.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 06 2021 at 10:14pm

Pixie, thanks for the info. A lot of diseases look like Covid-but are not Covid...better treatable with some luck...

DJ,

Vaccines are a major difference ! Without vaccines Delta would have been killing maybe allready tens of millions...

[url]https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/8/14/22620132/cdc-covid-variant-of-high-consequence[/url] or https://www.deseret.com/coronavirus/2021/8/14/22620132/cdc-covid-variant-of-high-consequence not a very good article but also linking Delta with the Variant of High Consequence...VOHC.

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#Consequence[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#ConsequenceA variant of high consequence has clear evidence that prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) have significantly reduced effectiveness relative to previously circulating variants. 

DJ I think Delta is on its way to become a VOHC - We can not get it under control...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Some trends; For cases US-11%, UK-2%, NL+5%, Israel -32% When I look at some regions; Russia cases +14%, Poland cases +52%, Germany cases -3%...Romania +48%, Ukraine +44%, Lithuania +28%, Finland +15%, Denmark +12%...

a may 11 article [url]https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210511/The-travel-related-origin-and-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-B1620-strain.aspx[/url] or https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210511/The-travel-related-origin-and-spread-of-SARS-CoV-2-B1620-strain.aspx ; A new preprint research paper posted to the medRxiv* server describes a new variant B.1.620, which appeared in Lithuania, and is now prevalent in several countries in Europe, as well as in central Africa.

-

Many Cameroon genomes uploaded to the GISAID (Global Initiative for Sharing All Influenza Data) database show surprising diversity. A few share mutations with B.1.620, with the earliest to appear being, possibly, synonymous mutations at 15324 and the spike mutation T1027I. These are also present in B.1.619.

-

The B.1.620 lineage also has several mutations in the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the spike protein, among which some remain of unknown impact. Of the rest, all partially resist neutralization by convalescent serum and NTD-targeting monoclonal antibodies. This may point to the origin of these mutations as immune-evading viral adaptations.

The S477N and E484K mutations in the RBD are found in other VOCs, but the B.1.620 does not carry either the N501Y or K417 mutations. Both the former mutations facilitate broad evasion of antibody-mediated neutralization. They also promote high-affinity binding of the RBD to its receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2).

Both are on the same peripheral loop at the binding interface of these two proteins, and their presence in combination improves the energetic profile favorably relative to the reference genome.

DJ Maybe a main factor in B.1.620 is its ability to mutate faster ? I am not an expert, just trying to "follow the story"...

A february 2021article [url]https://www.tachealthcaregroup.com/2021/02/23/finnish-covid-variant/[/url] or https://www.tachealthcaregroup.com/2021/02/23/finnish-covid-variant/The concern about the latest Finnish variant is that changes in the viral nucleoprotein may make this latest variant more difficult to detect with some PCR tests. As with each of the previous variants, TAC is actively investigating the impact of this latest variant on our testing regimen. Our medical/scientific advisory team are doing this in conjunction with the manufacturers and will report back at the earliest opportunity. In the meantime, there are two important points that this new variant highlights or reinforces. 

DJ Also in the Finnish news [url]https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finland_sees_first_cases_of_covid_variant_mu/12106049[/url] or https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finland_sees_first_cases_of_covid_variant_mu/12106049

Last month the World Health Organization (WHO) designated Mu a "variant of interest." Now the strain has been detected in some 40 countries, including Finland.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#History[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#History ; a.o. ; 

  • The patient is a Taiwanese woman in her 60s who returned from the United States and already had 2 doses of the Pfizer vaccine. She had received the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine in the United States on July 5 and the second on July 26. When she returned to Taiwan on August 3, she did not report any symptoms, but a test administered at the airport revealed that she was positive for COVID-19.[15]
  • Guatemala reported its first two cases of the Mu variant in two female patients, aged 19 and 25. Both patients had no travel and vaccination history. The patients reside in the central department of Guatemala, where the capital, Guatemala City, is located.[16]
  • -
  • Two of the patients – a 19-year-old man and a 22-year-old woman had flown in from Colombia and were confirmed to have the Mu variant in early June, while the other, a 26-year-old woman, arrived from the United States. She was confirmed infected on July 24. Hong Kong also reported four new imported COVID-19 cases, all involving domestic workers who arrived from the Philippines.

See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#Statistics ; Some 55 countries reporting the Mu variant...Close to 10,000 cases detected-5,000 of them in the US. 

DJ So what is the point I am trying to make ? Finland had a test evading variant, Lithuania a B.1.620 variant possibly with increase of immunity evasion...Mu/B.1.621 is getting widespread...Denmark 7, Poland 6, Finland 3, Romania 1 case detected...

The general idea is that Delta/B.1.617 (possibly with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Other_sublineages_of_B.1.617[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Other_sublineages_of_B.1.617 ) is the dominant global variant. Denmark is very good in sequencing, Finland does 10-15% of cases getting screened/sequenced...I doubt if Russia, Romania, Ukraine see much testing/sequencing...

Is there allready some other variant showing up ? Europe cases +8%, deaths +9%. Worldwide cases -7%, deaths -10%...

In Asia Turkey cases +5% may be linked to Eastern European cases going up...Some other countries in that region also see increases-Asia cases -13%, deaths -19%...

There is a problem in Europe....(and I have my doubts if it is Delta or a new variant...)

Worldometer deaths are at 4,840,904 - so still 160,000 under the 5 million some other sources claimed days ago...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925034-china-officials-close-some-entertainment-venues-after-covid-19-outbreak-in-macau-october-6-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925034-china-officials-close-some-entertainment-venues-after-covid-19-outbreak-in-macau-october-6-2021The Macau Coordination Center for Coordination of New Coronavirus Infections announced on October 5 that, in accordance with the Chief Executive's order No. 143/2021, in order to prevent the risk of the spread of the new crown virus in Macau, some entertainment venues in Macau will be closed from 0:00 on the 6th.

DJ China cases -20%, last week 255, this week 204...Allthough I do have some doubts on the Chinese claim of no CoViD deaths, asymptomatic cases under the China definition are "not cases"...I do think China also testing on a major scale for a/pre symptomatic spread, massive vaccinations, contact tracing...may be able to go for "Zero-CoViD"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925033-a-better-way-to-think-about-your-risk-for-covid[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925033-a-better-way-to-think-about-your-risk-for-covidJust as immune function—and its associated protection against severe COVID—tends to wane across our life span, it also varies along a continuum from person to person as a product of genetics. One evidently healthy 30-year-old, for example, could be more predisposed to getting very sick with COVID than another, even if they had the same set of medical conditions as listed on the CDC website. Scientists have been working out the details of these individual differences in immune function, but their findings haven’t yet been brought to bear on the pandemic in any widespread way, let alone considered guidance for the use of booster shots. Instead, as we struggle to set up rival groups of high- versus low-risk people, or immunocompromised versus immunocompetent, we tend to ignore all the gradations of vulnerability that might lie in between. Those who don’t clearly fit into the CDC’s official categories are left to guess at their personal levels of risk, counting their COVID antibodies “like calories” or grabbing booster shots of their own accord.
...

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/10/covid-risk-factors-could-be-hiding-our-genes/620315/

DJ Immune response has some basic genetics...part of it may be in the DNA...In general I think it is a very bad idea to "get the virus after vaccination as a booster for immunity"....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/-2019-ncov-who-chp-wpro-ecdc-oie-fao-moa-reports-and-updates/925029-a-clinical-case-definition-of-post-covid-19-condition-by-a-delphi-consensus-6-october-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/china-2019-ncov/-2019-ncov-who-chp-wpro-ecdc-oie-fao-moa-reports-and-updates/925029-a-clinical-case-definition-of-post-covid-19-condition-by-a-delphi-consensus-6-october-2021WHO has developed a clinical case definition of post COVID-19 condition by Delphi methodology that includes 12 domains, available for use in all settings. This first version was developed by patients, researchers and others, representing all WHO regions, with the understanding that the definition may change as new evidence emerges and our understanding of the consequences of COVID-19 continues to evolve.

Post COVID-19 condition occurs in individuals with a history of probable or confirmed SARS CoV-2 infection, usually 3 months from the onset of COVID-19 with symptoms and that last for at least 2 months and cannot be explained by an alternative diagnosis. Common symptoms include fatigue, shortness of breath, cognitive dysfunction but also others and generally have an impact on everyday functioning. Symptoms may be new onset following initial recovery from an acute COVID-19 episode or persist from the initial illness. Symptoms may also fluctuate or relapse over time.

(download option, 89l.3 kB)


https://www.who.int/publications/i/i...inition-2021.1

DJ It is good to have some definitions...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925028-finland-to-vaccinate-fur-farm-animals-against-covid[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925028-finland-to-vaccinate-fur-farm-animals-against-covidFinland is set to vaccinate fur production animals against Covid. The Finnish Breeders' Association (FIFUR) will be vaccinating minks against coronavirus in the coming weeks, after being granted a conditional license by the Finnish Food Authority.

The vaccine covered by the license was developed by a research team at the University of Helsinki. In addition to the university's laboratories, the vaccine has been tested at a fur farm in Kannus, Central Ostrobothnia.

DJ Why run the risk ? Stop fur-farming now !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925021-merck-sells-federally-financed-covid-pill-to-u-s-for-40-times-what-it-costs-to-make[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925021-merck-sells-federally-financed-covid-pill-to-u-s-for-40-times-what-it-costs-to-makeMerck Sells Federally Financed Covid Pill to U.S. for 40 Times What It Costs to Make
The Covid-19 treatment molnupiravir was developed using funding from the National Institutes of Health and the Department of Defense.
Sharon Lerner

October 5 2021, 4:22 p.m.

A five-day course of molnupiravir, the new medicine being hailed as a “huge advance” in the treatment of Covid-19, costs $17.74 to produce, according to a report issued last week by drug pricing experts at the Harvard School of Public Health and King’s College Hospital in London. Merck is charging the U.S. government $712 for the same amount of medicine, or 40 times the price.

DJ Totally unacceptable ! "Politics" is dealing with this pandemic as a bussiness/profit oppertunity NOT as a major healthcrisis...To many crazy people in politics ! To many doctors going for the money...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925020-hospital-system-says-it-will-deny-transplants-to-the-unvaccinated-in-%E2%80%98almost-all-situations%E2%80%99[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925020-hospital-system-says-it-will-deny-transplants-to-the-unvaccinated-in-%E2%80%98almost-all-situations%E2%80%99A Colorado-based health system says it is denying organ transplants to patients not vaccinated against the coronavirus in “almost all situations,” citing studies that show these patients are much more likely to die if they get covid-19.

The policy illustrates the growing costs of being unvaccinated and wades into deeply controversial territory — the use of immunization status to decide who gets limited medical care. The mere idea of prioritizing the vaccinated for rationed health resources has drawn intense backlash, as overwhelmingly unvaccinated covid-19 patients push some hospitals to adopt “crisis standards of care,” in which health systems can prioritize patients for scarce resources based largely on their likelihood of survival...

DJ There can be medical reasons for such a decision. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925018-cidrap-covid-19-scan-lives-saved-by-covid-vaccine-pandemic-and-cancer-surgery-covid-19-and-irritable-bowel-disease[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925018-cidrap-covid-19-scan-lives-saved-by-covid-vaccine-pandemic-and-cancer-surgery-covid-19-and-irritable-bowel-diseaseA US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) analysis of Medicare data and county vaccination rates indicates that COVID-19 vaccinations administered from January until May 2021 were estimated to reduce COVID-19 infections by 265,000 and deaths by 39,000 among Medicare beneficiaries.

DJ January-may US 39,000 less people dying from Covid ...If you translate that statistic to a global one, worldwide, also taking Delta in the "model" vaccinations saved over 1 million lives ? 

Same link; COVID-19 incidence may be higher in irritable bowel disease patients

COVID-19 incidence was 4.7 per 1,000 person-years among irritable bowel disease (IBD) patients compared with 2.8 in the general population, according to a population-based study published in PLOS One yesterday.
The researchers looked at COVID-19 patients admitted to the only two hospitals covering the South-Limburg region in the Netherlands from Feb 27, 2020, to Jan 4, 2021. The total population was 597,184 people, and 4,980 were estimated to have IBD. Twenty IBD patients (0.4%) and 1,425 of the general population (0.24%) were hospitalized due to COVID-19, leading to an incidence rate ratio of 1.68 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08 to 2.62, p = 0.019).
COVID-19 patients with IBD were more likely to be younger (median age, 63.0 years vs 72.0) and have a higher body mass index (BMI) (average, 24.4 vs 24.1 kg/m2), but both groups had similar rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission (12.5% vs 15.7%, P = 1.00), mechanical ventilation (6.3% vs 11.2%, P = 1.00), and death (6.3% vs 21.8%, P = 0.22).
A post-hoc analysis found that BMI among ICU patients was significantly higher compared with non-ICU patients in both groups (mean, 25.8 vs 23.9), which the researchers say confirms that BMI as a risk factor for severe COVID-19.

DJ One could argue that IBD may be higher in the group of people with a higher BMI. Food digestion may be a problem resulting both in higher BMI and IBD...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925015-cidrap-decline-in-global-covid-19-cases-deaths-continues[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925015-cidrap-decline-in-global-covid-19-cases-deaths-continues

Continuing a trend that began in August, global COVID-19 cases and deaths declined again last week, with activity decreasing in most regions except Europe, where infection levels stayed the same, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its latest weekly snapshot of the pandemic.

Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19, said on Twitter that hard work is paying off, and vaccinations are significantly cutting hospitalizations and deaths. She added, however, that vaccine equity is desperately needed, and the world is not out of the woods yet.

"Keeping up with measures that suppress transmission are hard but even more critical now," she said, urging people to stay vigilant and not let their guard down.

Delta variant now in 192 countries

The biggest declines in cases last came from Africa, followed by the Middle East and Southeast Asia, the WHO said.

Regions reporting the highest incidence for both infections and deaths were the Americas and Europe. And the countries that reported the most cases last week were the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Russia, and India.

Seven more countries reported their first Delta (B1617.2) cases, lifting the total to 192.

A mixed picture in the Americas

Regarding activity in the Americas, national data don't show the whole story, with spikes in local activity remaining worrisome, Carissa Etienne, MBBS, who leads the WHO's Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), said at a briefing today. She spotlighted southwestern Canada's peak hospitalization and intensive care unit (ICU) levels and overwhelmed hospitals in the US state of Alaska.

Etienne also said hospitalizations have jumped sharply in Belize, with Chile experiencing activity rises in urban centers that include Santiago and the port cities of Coquimbo and Antofagasta.

She urged countries to focus on closing vaccination gaps as quickly as possible, emphasizing that though seven countries and territories in the Americas have vaccinated more than 70% of their populations, many have yet to immunize 20%. "Jamaica, Nicaragua, and Haiti have yet to reach even 10% coverage," Etienne said.

More global headlines

  • Romania's government said yesterday that the country has no ICU beds left amid a surge in COVID-19 activity that resulted in more than 15,000 new cases yesterday, according to Reuters. Officials have suspended nonemergency surgery for a month and redeployed health workers to help manage rising hospitalizations. Romania has one of Europe's lowest vaccination levels.
  • Spanish officials yesterday approved third doses of the two mRNA vaccines for people ages 70 and older, according to Reuters. The boosters are authorized from 6 months after people receive their second shot, and the country will start administering them in late October.
  • The global total today topped 236 million cases, rising to 236,096,822 infections, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard. So far 4,822,055 people have died from COVID-19.

DJ Europe seeing an increase of cases while some other countries are doing much worse on both vaccinations and testing...There may be a "Delta-tunnelvision"...We need to increase testing and sequencing-I think we may be missing major developments again...The UK variant started in october 2020 but it did take to long before actions slowed down the spread. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/saudi-arabia-coronavirus/925014-saudi-arabia-2021-mers-epiwk-39[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/saudi-arabia-coronavirus/925014-saudi-arabia-2021-mers-epiwk-39 ; MERS in Riyadh city: 58-year-old male in Riyadh city, Riyadh
Contact with camels: Yes
Case classification: Primary
Healthcare worker: No
Current status: Active
Date: September 19, 2021
Event#: 21-2055

DJ MERS is worse then SARS-2-both COrona VIral Diseases (CoViD). Not very likely to mix...would be a nightmare if it did...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924783-covid-19-cases-continue-to-climb-in-atlantic-canada-with-fourth-wave-of-virus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924783-covid-19-cases-continue-to-climb-in-atlantic-canada-with-fourth-wave-of-virus Canada has 148 reported Mu cases...???

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/925001-who-calls-for-surveillance-to-explain-rise-in-human-cases-of-h5n6-bird-flu-in-china[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/925001-who-calls-for-surveillance-to-explain-rise-in-human-cases-of-h5n6-bird-flu-in-chinaThe World Health Organization (WHO) says increased surveillance is urgently required to better understand what’s behind a recent spike in human cases of H5N6 bird flu in mainland China.

Only 48 people have been infected with H5N6 bird flu since the first confirmed case in 2014, but a third of those were reported in mainland China during the past 3 months alone. Half of all cases were reported during the past 12 months.

“Wider geographical surveillance in the China affected areas and nearby areas is urgently required to better understand the risk and the recent increase of spill over to humans,” a WHO spokesperson told BNO News...

...“Currently available epidemiologic and virologic evidence suggest that A(H5N6) influenza viruses have not acquired the ability of sustained transmission among humans, thus the likelihood of human-to-human spread is low,” WHO said.

The spokesperson added: “Due to the constantly evolving nature of influenza viruses, WHO continues to stress the importance of global surveillance to detect virological, epidemiological and clinical changes associated with circulating influenza viruses that may affect human (or animal) health and timely virus and information sharing for risk assessment.”

A study published by China’s Center for Disease Control in September reported several mutations in two cases of H5N6 and described the spread of the virus as a “serious threat” to the poultry industry and human health...

DJ One case so far in Laos...H5N6 is supposed to spread from birds into humans...not H2H human to human (yet). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925000-curr-mol-med-the-relation-of-the-viral-structure-of-sars-cov2-high-risk-condition-and-plasma-levels-of-il-4-il-10-and-il-15-in-covid-19-patients-compared-to-sars-and-mers-infections[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925000-curr-mol-med-the-relation-of-the-viral-structure-of-sars-cov2-high-risk-condition-and-plasma-levels-of-il-4-il-10-and-il-15-in-covid-19-patients-compared-to-sars-and-mers-infectionsAbstract

Background: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) has high mortality due to the widespread infection and the strong immune system reaction. Interleukins (ILs) are among the main immune factors contributing to the deterioration of the immune response and the formation of cytokine storms in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections.
Introduction: This review article investigated the relationship between virus structure, risk factors, and patient plasma interleukin levels in infections caused by the coronavirus family.
Method: The keywords "interleukin," "coronavirus structure," "plasma," and "risk factors" were the main words searched to find a relationship among different interleukins, coronavirus structures, and risk factors in ISI, PUBMED, SCOPUS, and Google Scholar databases.
Result: Patients with high-risk conditions with independent panels of immune system markers are more susceptible to death caused by SARS-CoV2. IL-4, IL-10, and IL-15 are probably secreted at different levels in patients with coronavirus infections despite the similarity of inflammatory markers during coronavirus infections. SARS-CoV2 and SARS-CoV increase the secretion of IL-4 in the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection, while it remains unchanged in MERS-CoV infection. MERS-CoV infection demonstrates increased IL-10 levels. However, IL-10 levels increase during SARS-CoV infection, and different levels are recorded in SARS-CoV2. MERS-CoV increases IL-15 secretion while its levels remain unchanged in SARS-CoV2.
Conclusion: In conclusion, the different structures of SARS-CoV2, such as length of spike or nonstructural proteins (NSPs), and susceptibility of patients based on their risk factors may lead to differences in immune marker secretion and pathogenicity. Therefore, identifying and controlling interleukin levels can play a significant role in controlling the symptoms and the development of individual-specific treatments.

DJ Comparing SARS-1, SARS-2, MERS (all Corona Viral Diseases) may learn us much on how the infection goes. By understanding that we may end up with better interventions. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/895212-covid-19-immunity?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/895212-covid-19-immunity?view=stream latest ; The neutralizing antibody response to seasonal
(“cold”) coronaviruses is of transient duration, allowing the
occurrence of reinfections.[33] In contrast, the protective
antibody responses to SARS-CoV-1 and MERS lasted a
minimum of 2−3 years after recovery.

...half-life of anti-RBD antibody decline to be ∼36 days;135

...people with milder infections generate lower antibody titers
that decline more rapidly.[138]

... 8 months {followup study}.139

{ neutralizing IgG antibody titers against the
spike protein and RBD remained relatively stable, with only a
modest decline over 6−8 months }

memory CD4+ and CD8+T-cells {have} half-lives of 3−5 months.

The decay kinetics of memory T-cell responses after
COVID-19 are similar to the vaccination response to the
yellow fever virus, which is known to confer long-lasting
immunity.[29]

there is a critical requirement for TFH
cooperation with germinal center B-cells in the development
of durable immunity to polio, smallpox, and other

a promising approach for augmenting memory B-cell
responses in COVID-19 could be to develop vaccinating
nanoparticles ...

DJ [url]https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsnano.1c01845[/url] or https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acsnano.1c01845 study from earlier this year 2021-04-01 proberbly = april 1 not january 4....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/malaria/925030-who-recommends-groundbreaking-malaria-vaccine-for-children-at-risk[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/malaria/925030-who-recommends-groundbreaking-malaria-vaccine-for-children-at-riskThe World Health Organization (WHO) is recommending widespread use of the RTS,S/AS01 (RTS,S) malaria vaccine among children in sub-Saharan Africa and in other regions with moderate to high P. falciparum malaria transmission. The recommendation is based on results from an ongoing pilot programme in Ghana, Kenya and Malawi that has reached more than 800 000 children since 2019.

“This is a historic moment. The long-awaited malaria vaccine for children is a breakthrough for science, child health and malaria control,” said WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. “Using this vaccine on top of existing tools to prevent malaria could save tens of thousands of young lives each year.”

Malaria remains a primary cause of childhood illness and death in sub-Saharan Africa.
More than 260 000 African children under the age of five die from malaria annually.
...
https://www.who.int/news/item/06-10-...ildren-at-risk

DJ Vaccines against Malaria give hope better treatments/vaccines may show up against CoViD-19 !

In general-I would have to look for it-during the Spanish Flu there may have been a better sense of public health, the risks pandemics bring...At present any crisis seems to be a "profit-oppertunity" with governments transferring zillions of tax payers money to Big Pharma (share holders...in part some of the politicians putting public money in their own private pockets !).

A crisis is NOT for profit ! If we want to survive as humans we have to change this insanity !

-ZOE [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoGqyFUoUSw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoGqyFUoUSw weekly update and Dr. John Campbell discussing a.o. the update [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kf_Y3e8UaY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kf_Y3e8UaY "prevalence remains high" ; 

ZOE’s predicted Long COVID incidence rate 804 people a day will go on to experience symptoms for longer than 12 weeks 

Professor Tim Spector  ; 

We’re seeing infections being passed up the generational ladder, likely from school children to their parents. Most of these new adult infections are in the under 50s, who still have a relatively low risk of being admitted to hospital, especially if they’ve been fully vaccinated. 

As the winter approaches, it’s important parents of school-aged children and students don’t pass the virus on to more vulnerable grandparents by not recognising simple cold-like symptoms as a possible COVID infection. This is a critical time and a little caution could make all the difference in avoiding a winter crisis for hospitals.

-

Three Moderna founders make Forbes list of America’s richest during pandemic $2.48 billion in R&D and supply funding from the U.S. government  

A list of the top 400 richest people in America Top 400, 40% richer than last year  

Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca, no profits during the pandemic  

-

Poland Fourth wave is gathering pace Cases up 70% in the past week Health service stretched to its limits last spring Waldemar Kraska, a deputy health minister Today's data is a very fast flashing red light 

Russia soars daily deaths increasing The Kremlin confirmed, Cases, + 25,133 Deaths, + 929 = 208,842 

DJ The UK R0 1.1, close to 60,000 daily symptomatic cases based on ZOE numbers (much higher then government numbers). In the UK 1 in 93 people have symptomatic Covid. In vaccinated 14,352 daily symptomatic cases...In trends both cases and deaths going down for the UK (-2/-15%) but the level of cases is very high ! 

-Some other links [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyCHtdpymNw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyCHtdpymNw ; The Anglo-Saxons have been long thought to have invaded Britain after the fall of the Roman Empire in 410 AD. Francis Pryor argues that the huge political changes that took place in Britain at the time were caused by a shifting of allegiances within this country rather than a violent invasion from elsewhere. Finding new and previously unexplained evidence Francis overturns the idea that Britain was crushed under Roman rule, then reverted to a state of anarchy and disorder after the Romans left in 410 AD. Instead of doom and gloom Francis discovers a continuous culture that assimilated influences from as far a field as the Middle East and Constantinople.

DJ There may be lots of similarities in historical processes and in how pandemics evolve...

-Music ; Wreckless Eric - Take the cash - 1978 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI6hO16OZbA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XI6hO16OZbA 

Every crisis is there to make money from-creating yet another crisis to make more profits...crazy !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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The Median Cost of Bringing a Drug to Market is $985 Million, According to New Study

https://www.biospace.com/article/median-cost-of-bringing-a-new-drug-to-market-985-million/

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https://www.ibtimes.com/how-us-subsidizes-cheap-drugs-europe-2112662

In Europe, drug prices are set by governments, not by pharmaceutical companies the way they are in the U.S. On average, the difference between the price of one drug in the U.S. and the same drug in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the U.K. was 50 percent, an analysis by the consulting firm McKinsey has found.

“U.S. consumers are in fact subsidizing other countries’ public health systems, at least with respect to drug pricing,” Jacob Sherkow, an associate professor at New York Law School, said.

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The UK's cases are going up, that's for certain. My 14 year old niece has just tested positive for Covid and it turns out 50% of her ballet class have also tested positive and 12% of her school!!!! It seems to be everywhere. The system for diagnosing Covid is also slowing down, my cousin has been waiting 4 days for the results of her PCR test, all the time feeling unwell and apparently allowed to go out and get on with life as normal - actions which will just spread it further.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 07 2021 at 9:57pm

DJ, 

Another "scenario's" in the hope it may provide some usefull info on where we are and where we are going. I am NOT an expert, NOT objective or "neutral"...just doing my best to limit "non-sense" and select info I think worth some attention - in an "ocean of info", so I will miss a lot...

KiwiMum-I fear not only the UK may be seeing an explosion of cases...from [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ re-tweet ; 




Yes, only 25% of AY.33s have a mix of Q613H, T29A & T250I. They need to make a sublineage AY.33.1 fast because this sublineage mix is growing (now 2% worldwide), and not all of AY.33. I think  was right.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants  On of the variants inside the Delta variant (part of the AY.33 "group" that was part of the AY.3 orAY.4 group) may be getting "more dominant" inside the Delta variant-variants...(in general from the tweets AY.33 and AY.34 growing - The wikipedia page not yet further then AY.28....) 

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.33&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.33&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected may give a hint on the numbers...In Botswana AY.33 was 173 out of 258 cases sequenced...Belgium 925 out of 49,852 samples. If you scroll down you can see it for your own country...98 countries...and a sub-section (put at 25% a few days back) seems to growing...(the AY.33.1 with a list of specific mutations...)

-Numbers; 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Let me start with NL...cases/deaths now +15% !!! Proberbly a mix of to much opening with to limited and waning vaccine immunity...A 15% increase would translate to a "realtime" R0 of 1,15...

Germany now reporting cases +16%, deaths +64%...even the UK now cases (again) in the "+ " 0,3%...deaths -12%

Worldwide picture...cases -7%, deaths -9% . Two "regions" reporting increases. Europe cases +9%, deaths +14% and Oceania (Australia, Papua New Guinea and New Zealand reporting +) cases +10%, deaths -7%...

Besides the Delta AY.33.1 increase we still may see an increase of B.1.620 in eastern Europe.

 I would have to look at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome#Epidemiology[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome#Epidemiology and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome#Transmission[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome#Transmission trying to get some info on the still not over MERS-CoViD (that could have been named SARS-2, so we would now deal with CoViD-19 as SARS-3)...[url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-mers-cov-situation-update[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/middle-east-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-mers-cov-situation-update this year so far something like 15 MERS cases...14 in KSA, 1 in UAE...

Bad part of the story is I do not expect much sequencing/testing (for MERS or SARS-2) to be done in Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Libya...Could MERS be spreading and be "hiding" as a variant of Covid-19 in some mutated form...[url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/images/20210902_Epicurve.png[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/images/20210902_Epicurve.png Since the SARS-2 pandemic started MERS cases dropped ????

Global reported numbers of Covid 19 yesterday october 7 - 461,091 new cases (US 102,090, UK 40,701, Turkey 30,019 cases). 

Deaths top 3 US 1,709, Russia 924, Mexico 713...Brazil 451 and Germany 411 deaths-followed by Ukraine, India, Romania, Iran, Turkey all over 200+ deaths...

DJ-"Living with the virus" is like living with climate collapse...a very short live ! Unsurvivable !

Bats seem to be a major factor in spread of COrona VIral Diseases (CoViD) in other species...and bats are widespread (and may have spread CoViD not only in Asia but also in Africa). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant#Statistics gets updated; top 5-GISAID US 4,927, Colombia 1,804, Chile 668, Spain 653, Mexico 405....(Mu-variant = B.1.621 )

Some other "tweets" [url]https://twitter.com/wim_schellekens[/url] or https://twitter.com/wim_schellekens

#ZeroCovid is a cost-effective economic investment : In the 2nd quarter of 2021, the GDP of the Zero Covid countries grew compared to the 4th quarter of 2019 (+1.7%). In the G10 countries that did not eradicate the virus, decline remained significant (-1%). [3/7]Pijl naar rechts en dan naar beneden gebogen

( retweeted from Cecile Philippe) and [url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericdingFederal statistics are not yet available on how many U.S. children went into foster care last year. Researchers estimate COVID-19 drove a 15% increase in orphaned children.

DJ; NO We are NOT in the same boat ! The poor are paying the price of the misbehavior of a rich elite ! It is that rich elite that is flying around the globe not willing to pay a decent contribution to global healthcare...tax evading (and still get minister of finance in NL claiming to be fighting tax evasion...).

-Even if private money was invested in a private company making medications/PPE/vaccines there is a limit to making profit out of a crisis !!!! Public interest has to go before private profit !

At present it is public money invested in Big Pharma-with governments taking the risks for unwanted effects...still some private Big Pharma want to make profit out of the health crises...and failing politics give them that room ! 

It makes me wonder if tax money is flowing into political Big Pharma share holders...Totally unacceptable !

In a democracy "We the people" should have the last word-not a rich elite only getting more and more rich !

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/899865-us-fluview-2020-2021-season-end-report?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states/seasonal-flu-2009-2014-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aj/899865-us-fluview-2020-2021-season-end-report?view=stream latest...Limited number of cases end of september in the US. With "reopenings" all kind of diseases may get a chance "to explore a new world"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925089-cidrap-study-highlights-impact-of-antibiotic-resistance-on-older-americans[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925089-cidrap-study-highlights-impact-of-antibiotic-resistance-on-older-americansNew research shows that roughly 40% of the deaths caused by the most common antibiotic-resistant infections occur in American 65 years and older.
In a study published today in Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers estimated that in 2017, more than 11,000 Americans 65 and over died from community- and hospital-onset invasive infections caused by six resistant bacterial pathogens. According to the most recent report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), those same pathogens killed an estimated 30,000 Americans in 2017.

DJ Older age groups, less health translates to more severe cases...So for countries with an older population and more chronic diseases you may need more restrictions and (much) more vaccinations to get the same results as in countries with a younger population. 

Japan has an older population, Israel a younger one...immunity decreases with age.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/925076-eurosurv-supplementing-sars-cov-2-genomic-surveillance-with-pcr-based-variant-detection-for-real-time-actionable-information-the-netherlands-june-to-july-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/925076-eurosurv-supplementing-sars-cov-2-genomic-surveillance-with-pcr-based-variant-detection-for-real-time-actionable-information-the-netherlands-june-to-july-2021 ; We evaluated routine testing with SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant-specific RT-PCR in regional hospital laboratories in addition to centralised national genomic surveillance in the Netherlands during June and July 2021. The increase of the Delta variant detected by RT-PCR correlated well with data from genomic surveillance and was available ca 2 weeks earlier. This rapid identification of the relative abundance and increase of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern may have important benefits for implementation of local public health measures.

full article

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/con....26.40.2100921

DJ We need better info faster...This HAS to mean much more (ad random) testing and sequencing to get as fast as possible data on where what variant (of Delta) is increasing...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest - DJ Usefull discussions...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925061-saudi-med-j-clinical-and-epidemiological-characteristics-of-covid-19-mortality-in-saudi-arabia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925061-saudi-med-j-clinical-and-epidemiological-characteristics-of-covid-19-mortality-in-saudi-arabia ; Abstract

Objectives: To analyze the clinical and epidemiological characteristics for 224 of in-hospital coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality cases. This study's clinical implications provide insight into the significant death indicators among COVID-19 patients and the outbreak burden on the healthcare system in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).
Methods: A multi-center retrospective cross-sectional study conducted among all COVID-19 mortality cases admitted to 15 Armed Forces hospitals across KSA, from March to July 2020. Demographic data, clinical presentations, laboratory investigations, and complications of COVID-19 mortality cases were collected and analyzed.
Results: The mean age was 69.66±14.68 years, and 142 (63.4%) of the cases were male. Overall, 30% of the COVID-19 mortalities occurred in the first 24 hours of hospital admission, while 50% occurred on day 10. The most prevalent comorbidities were diabetes mellitus (DM, 73.7%), followed by hypertension (HTN, 69.6%). Logistic regression for risk factors in all mortality cases revealed that direct mortality cases from COVID-19 were more likely to develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (odds ratio [OR]: 1.75, confidence intervel [CI: 0.89-3.43]; p=0.102) and acute kidney injury (OR: 1.01, CI: [0.54-1.90]; p=0.960).
Conclusion: Aging, male gender and the high prevalence of the underlying diseases such as, DM and HTN were a significant death indicators among COVID-19 mortality cases in KSA. Increases in serum ferritin, procalcitonin, C-reactive protein (CRP), and D-dimer levels can be used as indicators of disease progression.

DJ Better monitoring for underlying healthissues would help. A lot of people do not know they have Diabetes or high blood pressure (etc.). Preventive monitoring can limit damage (and with that burden on healthcare, costs, suffering etc...) A bit strange MERS cases going down in KSA since SARS-2 showed up...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925060-nat-commun-increased-lethality-in-influenza-and-sars-cov-2-coinfection-is-prevented-by-influenza-immunity-but-not-sars-cov-2-immunity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925060-nat-commun-increased-lethality-in-influenza-and-sars-cov-2-coinfection-is-prevented-by-influenza-immunity-but-not-sars-cov-2-immunity ; The continued spread of SARS-CoV-2 increases the probability of influenza/SARS-CoV-2 coinfection, which may result in severe disease.

 In this study, we examine the disease outcome of influenza A virus (IAV) and SARS-CoV-2 coinfection in K18-hACE2 mice. 

Our data indicate enhance susceptibility of IAV-infected mice to developing severe disease upon coinfection with SARS-CoV-2 two days later. 

In contrast to nonfatal influenza and lower mortality rates due to SARS-CoV-2 alone, this coinfection results in severe morbidity and nearly complete mortality. 

Coinfection is associated with elevated influenza viral loads in respiratory organs.

 Remarkably, prior immunity to influenza, but not to SARS-CoV-2, prevents severe disease and mortality. 

This protection is antibody-dependent. 

These data experimentally support the necessity of seasonal influenza vaccination for reducing the risk of severe influenza/COVID-19 comorbidity during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DJ So coinfection of Flu and CoViD-19 leads to a higher Flu-viral load...Get the Flu-vaccine-and if you did not get a CoViD-vaccine get one ! Do NOT go for "boosting immunity" via natural infection of CoViD (certainly during flu-season !)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/925044-plos-one-will-i-die-of-coronavirus-google-trends-data-reveal-that-politics-determine-virus-fears[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/925044-plos-one-will-i-die-of-coronavirus-google-trends-data-reveal-that-politics-determine-virus-fearsIs Google Trends (GT) useful to survey populations? Extant work has shown that certain search queries reflect the attitudes of hard-to-survey populations, but we do not know if this extends to the general population. In this article, we leverage abundant data from the Covid-19 pandemic to assess whether people's worries about the pandemic match epidemiological trends as well as political preferences. We use the string 'will I die from coronavirus' on GT as the measure for people's level of distress regarding Covid-19. We also test whether concern for coronavirus is a partisan issue by contrasting GT data and 2016 election results. We find strong evidence that (1) GT search volume close matches epidemiological data and (2) significant differences exist between states that supported Clinton or Trump in 2016.

DJ Highest mortality may be in non-voters, people "forgotten by politics"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/925043-n-engl-j-med-waning-immune-humoral-response-to-bnt162b2-covid-19-vaccine-over-6-months[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/925043-n-engl-j-med-waning-immune-humoral-response-to-bnt162b2-covid-19-vaccine-over-6-months ; Results: The study included 4868 participants, with 3808 being included in the linear mixed-model analyses. The level of IgG antibodies decreased at a consistent rate, whereas the neutralizing antibody level decreased rapidly for the first 3 months with a relatively slow decrease thereafter. Although IgG antibody levels were highly correlated with neutralizing antibody titers (Spearman's rank correlation between 0.68 and 0.75), the regression relationship between the IgG and neutralizing antibody levels depended on the time since receipt of the second vaccine dose. Six months after receipt of the second dose, neutralizing antibody titers were substantially lower among men than among women (ratio of means, 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.55 to 0.75), lower among persons 65 years of age or older than among those 18 to less than 45 years of age (ratio of means, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.48 to 0.70), and lower among participants with immunosuppression than among those without immunosuppression (ratio of means, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.46).


Conclusions: Six months after receipt of the second dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine, humoral response was substantially decreased, especially among men, among persons 65 years of age or older, and among persons with immunosuppression.

DJ Translation-with increase of infectiousness of variants, decrease of immunity over a short time, we need to do more to get cases down...STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/925039-cell-rep-b-1-617-2-enters-and-fuses-lung-cells-with-increased-efficiency-and-evades-antibodies-induced-by-infection-and-vaccination[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/925039-cell-rep-b-1-617-2-enters-and-fuses-lung-cells-with-increased-efficiency-and-evades-antibodies-induced-by-infection-and-vaccination ; Abstract

The Delta variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), B.1.617.2, emerged in India and has spread to over 80 countries.

 B.1.617.2 replaced B.1.1.7 as the dominant virus in the United Kingdom, resulting in a steep increase in new infections, and a similar development is expected for other countries. 

Effective countermeasures require information on susceptibility of B.1.617.2 to control by antibodies elicited by vaccines and used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) therapy. 

We show, using pseudotyping, that B.1.617.2 evades control by antibodies induced upon infection and BNT162b2 vaccination, although to a lesser extent as compared to B.1.351. 

We find that B.1.617.2 is resistant against bamlanivimab, a monoclonal antibody with emergency use authorization for COVID-19 therapy. 

Finally, we show increased Calu-3 lung cell entry and enhanced cell-to-cell fusion of B.1.617.2, which may contribute to augmented transmissibility and pathogenicity of this variant. 

These results identify B.1.617.2 as an immune evasion variant with increased capacity to enter and fuse lung cells.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Other_sublineages_of_B.1.617[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Other_sublineages_of_B.1.617B.1.617.1 (Kappa variant) was designated a Variant Under Investigation in April 2021 by Public Health England. Later in April 2021, two other variants B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3 were designated as Variants Under Investigation. While B.1.617.3 shares the L452R and E484Q mutations found in B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 lacks the E484Q mutation. B.1.617.2 has the T478K mutation, not found in B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.3.[30][31] Simultaneously, the ECDC released a brief maintaining all three sublineages of B.1.617 as VOI, estimating that a "greater understanding of the risks related to these B.1.617 lineages is needed before any modification of current measures can be considered"

The "Delta-family" is getting very complicated ! AY.33 and AY.34 may be subtypes of Delta-subtype B.1.617.2....(if I get it correct). 

-Other news 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-marine-special-ops-forces-have-been-taiwan-over-year-report-confirms[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-marine-special-ops-forces-have-been-taiwan-over-year-report-confirms  and [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/536884-tensions-china-taiwan-reunification/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/536884-tensions-china-taiwan-reunification/ 

DJ On [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-China_policy#U.S._policy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One-China_policy#U.S._policy ; In the case of the United States, the One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China. The United States does not challenge that position." The United States has not expressed an explicitly immutable statement regarding whether it believes Taiwan is independent or not. Instead, Washington simply states that they understand the PRC's claims on Taiwan as its own. In fact, many scholars[who?] agree that U.S. One-China policy was not intended to please the PRC government, but as a way for Washington to conduct international relations in the region, which Beijing fails to state. A more recent study suggests that this wording reflected the Nixon administration's desire to shift responsibility for resolving the dispute to the "people most directly involved" – that is, China and Taiwan. At the same time, the United States would avoid "prejudic[ing] the ultimate outcome" by refusing to explicitly support the claims of one side or the other

DJ-From the (Peoples Republic of) China (PRC) perspective the US is "moving away" from the "One-China" policy...(DJ-Maybe more to a sort of "Korea-view" North and South-Korea). 

A "two-China" policy by the US is a decleration of war in the eyes of China. We basically are in a "non-declared World War Three" scenario...China wants to take over the #1 global position from the US with a.o. Russian help. 

Some western countries/media keep presenting "China planning to invade Taiwan". A 19th century view proberbly telling more about those western entities....

The PRC may "invite" Taiwan companies to invest on the "mainland China market"-since they "are also Chinese"....With 1,4 billion consumers, Bejing a major factor in the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation with it 40% of global population 20% of global GDP...

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/how-the-china-is-a-threat-fake-news-cycle-works.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/how-the-china-is-a-threat-fake-news-cycle-works.html Since the US is selling "weapons" to Taiwan (within limits) there are military trainers, observers etc. The PRC knows this...

DJ-One of the US goals in Taiwan may be trying to keep Taiwan under US influence...just like in South Korea and Japan...Also trying to use those countries to get (better) entry to the Asian markets...

"AUKUS", [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_for_Worldwide_Interbank_Financial_Telecommunication#Use_in_sanctions[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_for_Worldwide_Interbank_Financial_Telecommunication#Use_in_sanctions , the US not sticking to international agreements, laws/rules may be damaging the US most. 

Iran is a main oil supplier of China (and a.o. Syria). Russia, China promissed investmensts in Korea if there is progres in peacetalks. 

The future economic growth may NOT be in the US. Asian countries may be "more interested" in EurAsian trade, bussinesses with Africa, Latin America...Again US "confrontationism" may indicate a lack of vision. 

It may be Taiwan (the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia) may get tired of US/UK "free searoutes" claims sending their navy into the East- and South China Sea. 

Maybe it is in the spirit of Chinese martial arts to ask "why China has to beat the US while they can make the US beat the US"....

-Dr. John Campbell has been productive on Covid-symptoms; 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQH40UydmWM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wQH40UydmWM on Covid-toes;  Covid toe, caused by the immune response to the virus, not the virus itself  

Dr Veronique Bataille, consultant dermatologist, British Skin Foundation Covid toe was seen very frequently during the early phase of the pandemic, but has been less common in the current Delta variant wave. That might be down to more people being vaccinated or having some protection against Covid from past infections. Presentations after vaccination are much rarer Delayed presentation my mean link is missed

and [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gn5GtUpwQ0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Gn5GtUpwQ0 Most common symptoms - a 6 minutes short video ; Most common symptoms in vaccinated and children Runny nose, 76% Headache, 75% Sneezing, 66% Sore throat, 52% Loss of smell, 52% (Fever nor chronic cough in the top symptoms)

Out of date government advice misses 40% of infections  

Natural immunity, levels of protection against reinfection Natural infection alone in past year, 65% 2 doses of AZ in past 6 months, 71% 2 doses of Pfizer in past 6 months, 83% Infection (past year) followed by 2 doses of AZ, 90% Infection (past year) followed by 2 doses of Pfizer, 94% 

Contradicts Israeli data Protection of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection is similar to that of BNT162b2 vaccine protection: A three-month nationwide experience from Israel  

DJ It may be one of the only "better things" you may get from a Covid-infection = some immunity...As far as I know it is not fully clear how much a mild infection will give "better natural immunity"...If one is thinking of "catching a higher viral Covid-load to boost/get natural immunity" that person has to see a doctor for mental reasons...

My impression is Delta-variants are "exploding"...even if you did get Delta a few months ago you may allready see limited protection against new mutated forms AY.33, AY.33.1, AY.34 and what still may be on its way...do not take such risks !

The expected autumn/fall wave may start pushing numbers up soon. I hope you "enjoyed the better moments" if you had a chance to do so. Several western countries may face a lockdown before january...of course it may be "renamed" for political reasons...

So far "dealing with this pandemic" only made the pandemic worse...(just like in the "climate change sham" words-without-proper-action...). 

Cold war politics also part of the present "energy crisis" (Russia wants more gas via Northstream-2, less via Ukraine...the EU is taking its time...(just like in Sputnik-V vaccine, proberbly comparable to AZ-O vaccines). 

A pandemic again getting worse, exploding energy prices [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/07/nl-residents-risk-poverty-due-rising-energy-bills[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/07/nl-residents-risk-poverty-due-rising-energy-bills ...social unrest may increase this winter...

-Music; Winter In America (Is Cold) - Doug Ashdown - 1978 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiegKW5UKgc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AiegKW5UKgc 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 08 2021 at 9:47pm

My friends on this forum; 

I notice there is disagreement "ia an unwelcome way" on this forum. I am sorry for that. 

In "scenario's" I try to "build" my opinion on this-terrible-pandemic. It is neither my role or goal to convince others (then myself) that I am right or wrong...In fact I often hope that I see it the wrong way....

This pandemic is a horror-show unseen in recent history killing over 3 million people per year....Emotions have a place in that. From worries to grief. 

Respect for each others opinion, being open for new insights, are the essential basics for any forum. 

DJ, 

Pixie had a link to Delta AY.26 reinfecting a person ( 31 y/o male-healthy, unvaccinated, Nevada-USA) within 3 weeks after catching an initial (AY.33 ????) Delta infection. (see Latest News - Mutated Delta infection). 

There may be-by now-over 50 variants of Delta spreading...(they all get AY. then a number...say AY.33 but even that is seeing further mutations so the idea is there is also AY.33.1...) 

The (very hard !!!!) reality is that immunity (either by vaccine or natural-after infection) against one "sub-variant of Delta" does not tell that much about immunity against some other subvariants of the same variant....

So "vaccine protection %" may become "a nice illusion"....in 3D...Yes Pfizer may offer a lot of protection two months after second vaccination against subvariant AY.X but less protection against subvariant AY.Y or AY.Z.....and the picture does change in time...

So it could be that vaccine immunization could start offering better protection against AY.Y or AY.Z after three months, but less against AY.X subvariant of Delta...(wich is B.1.617.2....B.1.617.1=Kappa variant...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Other_sublineages_of_B.1.617[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Other_sublineages_of_B.1.617

There are three sublineages of lineage B.1.617 categorised so far.

B.1.617.1 (Kappa variant) was designated a Variant Under Investigation in April 2021 by Public Health England. Later in April 2021, two other variants B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3 were designated as Variants Under Investigation. While B.1.617.3 shares the L452R and E484Q mutations found in B.1.617.1, B.1.617.2 lacks the E484Q mutation. B.1.617.2 has the T478K mutation, not found in B.1.617.1 and B.1.617.3.[30][31] Simultaneously, the ECDC released a brief maintaining all three sublineages of B.1.617 as VOI, estimating that a "greater understanding of the risks related to these B.1.617 lineages is needed before any modification of current measures can be considered".

DJ So-if I get it correct B.1.617.2 and B.1.617.3 are BOTH Delta ? And split up in tens of sub-variants...(Some of them may be renamed B.1.617.4 etc ? Maybe even get their own name ?)

Complex !

Worse is B.1.620, B.1.621 and other not yet named (as far as I know) non-Delta variants are also around...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variantThe Mu variant, also known as lineage B.1.621 or VUI-21JUL-1, is one of the variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. It was first detected in Colombia in January 2021 and was designated by the WHO as a variant of interest on August 30, 2021.[1] The WHO said the variant has mutations that indicate a risk of resistance to the current vaccines and stressed that further studies were needed to better understand it.[2][3] Outbreaks of the Mu variant were reported in South America and Europe.[4] The B.1.621 lineage has a sublineage, labeled B.1.621.1 under the PANGO nomenclature, which has already been detected in more than 20 countries worldwide.

DJ "From big balls we are now in an ocean of marbles"....Delta may be "dominant" but inside Delta there is competition of subvariants...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator…children displayed higher viral loads at the day of symptom onset compared to adults, while the decay in viral load was comparable.(…)if children become infected with SARS-CoV-2, they can carry high loads of virus for a longer time compared to adults.” https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.06.21263384v1

DJ-to copy just one of many things on twitter...higher viral load may be the way the virus is developing new variants...In hosts it means (much) more disease...Children that did not get (much) symptoms before Delta do get ill from Delta because of the higher viral load...

That higher viral load is also infecting parents, family...may even "break" vaccine protection (that never claimed to be 100% effective ! A flu-vaccine offering 60% protection was seen as "very good", most CoViD vaccines do much better !) ...forget about "natural immunity"....

S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D ! ! ! ! ! 

The more hosts a virus can infect the more mutations it will see in reproduction...Most of these mistakes=mutations make the virus weaker. Some make the virus more infectious...

Besides humans CoViD-19 did infect tens of millions of minks-creating its own (cluster-5) variant...proberbly still playing some role in the evolution of this virus/pandemic...Lots of other animals did get CoViD 19....trillions of other animals carry other corona-virusses...

Bats seem to be a motor behind both MERS (via camels-still infecting people) and SARS-2. Bats still have other corona-virusses that may be a major risk for further SARS pandemics....

The idea of "living with the virus" in my (non-expert) opinion is just like "living with climate change" very, very wrong ! 

Living with a mutating virus is "living with a worsening pandemic". And it may get even much worse !!!

Another twitter [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ;




Among sequenced infections, vaccine effectiveness against infections of the delta variant was high during the first month after full vaccination (93% [95% CI 85–97]) but declined to 53% [39–65] after 4 months.

and

Someone just sent me info on outbreak in a hospital break room where 14/15 got infected by 1 index case in one shift. The max in room at once time was 4. Warning: don’t take off mask just because people are not present. The virus can linger in the air in small spaces for hours.

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

DJ-Here in the NetherLands (=NL) trends cases +24%, deaths -10%..."Because of over 70% of the adult population being vaccinated the NL government changed from social distance to vaccine passports" end of last month. Cases are going up high speed...(in fact one could translate an increase of cases by 24% as a R0 of 1,24 I think...?) Still "our government does not see an urgency to do something...

Global trends cases -7%, deaths -6%...we soon may be in cases going up again...With allready high daily numbers as a basis. 

October 8-2021, did see 442,912 new cases-of wich 106,298 in the US. Of the 7.611 deaths the US did see 1,937 deaths...So US cases/deaths around 25% of global numbers as far as reported...

There are now 73 countries reporting increase of cases. UK +1%, Germany +16%, Denmark +20%, Ukraine +41%, Poland +54%...It is very likely some "other (sub)variants"are behind increase of cases in eastern Europe. (Very) limited vaccinations, testing, sequencing means we are "blind"...with winter on its way, an expected strong flu-season, healthcare exhausted the outlook is "not good"...

New Zealand cases +61% but at much lower levels then in most of Europe...147 last week, 236 cases this week. (Since they did see 1 person die this week-0 last week deaths +100%...)

Australian cases +16%, deaths -5% (last week 101, this week 96 ). Brazil cases/deaths -11%, vaccinations going up !

US cases -12%, deaths -9% but the numbers are very high ! Last week the US did see 768,527 new cases, this week 672,687 on a population of 333,5 million. Germany had 65,504 cases this week on a population of 84,1 million...this week 409 deaths, last week 321-(for the 7 days). The US did see 11,010 deaths this week, 12,039 last week (so -9% as weekly trend) but something like 30x  more deaths the germany did see with less then 4x the german population numbers...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925177-eur-j-public-health-sars-cov-2-outbreaks-on-danish-mink-farms-and-mitigating-public-health-interventions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925177-eur-j-public-health-sars-cov-2-outbreaks-on-danish-mink-farms-and-mitigating-public-health-interventions ; Abstract

Background: First severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections on Danish mink farms were reported in June 2020 and thereupon spread geographically. We provide population-level evidence on excess human incidence rates in Danish municipalities affected by disease outbreaks on mink farms and evaluate the effectiveness of two non-pharmaceutical interventions, i.e. culling of infected mink and local lockdowns.
Methods: We use information on SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on mink farms in 94 Danish municipalities together with data on human SARS-CoV-2 cases and tested persons in weeks 24 to 51 of 2020. Difference-in-difference estimations and panel event studies for weekly human incidence rates are applied to 1) identify epidemiological trends of human SARS-CoV-2 infections associated disease outbreaks on mink farms, and 2) quantify the mitigating effects from the two non-pharmaceutical interventions.
Results: SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on mink farms in a municipality associate with increase in weekly human incidence rates by about 75%; spatial spillover effects to neighbouring municipalities are also observed. Local lockdowns reduce human incidence rates, while culling of mink appears to be more effective in combination with a lockdown. The temporal lag between an outbreak on a mink farm and a significant increase in human incidence rates is estimated to be 1-3 weeks; lockdowns and culling of mink neutralizes this effect 4-8 weeks after the initial outbreak.


Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 infections among farmed mink in Denmark significantly link to local human infection trends. Strict animal and human disease surveillance in regions with mink farming should be pursued internationally to mitigate future epidemic developments.

DJ "strict disease surveillance" !!! Stop mink-farming ! Decrease meat production ! Not only for pandemic but also for climate and health reasons ! Is "profit" the excuse for every act of insanity ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925181-medicine-baltimore-clinical-predictive-risk-factors-prolonged-the-duration-of-sars-cov-2-clearance-in-279-moderate-covid-19-patients-a-multicenter-retrospective-cohort-study[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925181-medicine-baltimore-clinical-predictive-risk-factors-prolonged-the-duration-of-sars-cov-2-clearance-in-279-moderate-covid-19-patients-a-multicenter-retrospective-cohort-study ; Abstract

The results of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleic acid as one of the criteria has been widely applied to assess whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients could discharge, however, the risk factors that affect the duration of the SARS-CoV-2 clearance remained to be an enigma. 

Our research was to identify risk factors correlated with prolonged duration of the SARS-CoV-2 clearance in moderate COVID-19 patients.We retrospectively analyzed 279 consecutive ordinary COVID-19 patients in 3 hospitals in Hubei province including Huangshi Hospital of Infectious Disease, Wuhan Thunder God Mountain Hospital, and Tongji Hospital. 

Eight clinical characters were contained as risk factors. 

We used a logistic regression model and nomogram to assess the possibility that the SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid may turn negative in 14 days.Time from symptoms onset to diagnosis (odds ratio [OR] = 3.18; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.56-6.46; P = .001), time from onset use of antiviral drugs to onset of symptoms (OR = 0.41; 95% CI 0.23-0.72; P = .02), and bacterial coinfection (OR = 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.86; P = .038) were independent risks factors for the duration of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid clearance. 

The regression model showed good accuracy and sensitivity (area under the curve = 0.96). 

Nomogram was also provided to predict the negative conversion rate of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acids within 14 days.Time from symptoms onset to diagnosi, time from onset use of antiviral drugs to onset of symptoms, and bacterial coinfection were independent risk factors for the time of SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid turning negative in ordinary COVID-19 patients. 

However, the age, gender, underlying disease, fungal coinfection, and duration use of antiviral drugs were irrelevant factors.

DJ It is good to be aware of these risk factors but also not to see them as absolute ones. The picture will change with other variants...making things even more complex !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925191-front-immunol-silent-sars-cov-2-infections-waning-immunity-serology-testing-and-covid-19-vaccination-a-perspective[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925191-front-immunol-silent-sars-cov-2-infections-waning-immunity-serology-testing-and-covid-19-vaccination-a-perspective ; Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus causes a spectrum of clinical manifestations, ranging from asymptomatic to mild, moderate, or severe illness with multi-organ failure and death. 

Using a new machine learning algorithm developed by us, we have reported a significantly higher number of predicted COVID-19 cases than the documented counts across the world. The sole reliance on confirmed symptomatic cases overlooking the symptomless COVID-19 infections and the dynamics of waning immunity may not provide 'true' spectrum of infection proportion, a key element for an effective planning and implementation of protection and prevention strategies.


 We and others have previously shown that strategic orthogonal testing and leveraging systematic data-driven modeling approach to account for asymptomatics and waning cases may situationally have a compelling role in informing efficient vaccination strategies beyond prevalence reporting. 


However, currently Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) does not recommend serological testing either before or after vaccination to assess immune status. 


Given the 27% occurrence of breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated (FV) group with many being asymptomatics and still a larger fraction of the general mass remaining unvaccinated, the relaxed mask mandate and distancing by CDC can drive resurgence. 

Thus, we believe it is a key time to focus on asymptomatics (no symptoms) and oligosymptomatics (so mild that the symptoms remain unrecognized) as they can be silent reservoirs to propagate the infection. 

This perspective thus highlights the need for proactive efforts to reevaluate the current variables/strategies in accounting for symptomless and waning fractions.

DJ Most of the virus spread is "under the radar"...most likely spreading from a-symptomatic host to a-symptomatic hosts...Only causing symptoms in more vulnarable hosts or after some mutations in the virus. 

We NEED URGENT  better sequencing, much better, very much larger scale testing. "Politics" keep underestimating the risks of this pandemic. In my opinion it is allready on its way to get worse then the "Spanish Flu". Both in number of deaths (realistic numbers = 20 million+), duration (now 20 months-far from over), suffering (long CoViD in tens of millions of people) and economic damage. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925210-patients-must-undergo-kidney-and-liver-tests-to-make-sure-remdesivir-is-safe-for-them[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925210-patients-must-undergo-kidney-and-liver-tests-to-make-sure-remdesivir-is-safe-for-them

Lung and kidney damage caused by COVID-19, not antiviral drug

By The Associated PressSeptember 21, 2021 GMT

CLAIM: Lungs filling with fluid and kidney failure are actually side effects of remdesivir, a treatment approved for COVID-19, not symptoms of the disease itself.
AP’S ASSESSMENT: False. Critical COVID-19, not the drug remdesivir, has been known to cause fluid in the lungs and renal failure.
THE FACTS: Remarks made by a former chiropractor are circulating online, spreading false information about an antiviral medicine used to treat COVID-19.
Bryan Ardis falsely claims that COVID-19 is not killing millions of Americans, and that the deaths are actually being caused by the use of remdesivir to treat hospitalized patients. His inaccuracies about the drug have been widely shared in text and video posts on Twitter and Facebook...
...
Dr. John Mellors, chief of the Division of Infectious Diseases at University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, said the patients who got remdesivir in those trials showed no evidence of kidney damage compared with the group that didn’t get the drug.

Before even using the drug, patients must undergo kidney and liver tests to make sure it is safe for them, so experts would have noted if the drug was responsible for deaths like the posts online suggest.

I hope they screened the placebo group for kidney and liver problems in that trial. Here's an interview with Dr. Ardis about Remdesivir:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/jv3GSOcoIGCP/

First published at 08:12 UTC on August 1st, 2021.

DJ In a srisis there are special laws to bring production under state control. Making profit out of a healthcrisis-even allowing to do so-can give a financial push to NOT solve such a crisis. You should avoid that ! 

In my opinion all medical products-needed in this worsening healthcrisis-should be non-profit and under state control. This pandemic did most likely kill more people then most major wars...I do not get the lack of urgency to see it like a very major disaster...

Most likely over 4 million deaths per year-proberbly over 10x the number of deaths in a flu-season...and still "normal"..."live with it" =crazy !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/health-humanitarian-issues/925212-ny-state-will-not-release-records-of-feminist-suspected-of-being-silenced-by-wrongful-commitment-to-islip-psychiatric-center-on-long-island-in-1927[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/health-humanitarian-issues/925212-ny-state-will-not-release-records-of-feminist-suspected-of-being-silenced-by-wrongful-commitment-to-islip-psychiatric-center-on-long-island-in-1927 DJ-By giving states more control I do not claim states always do the right thing. The biggest crimes were done by states-not individuals !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/914335-two-mouthwashes-disrupt-covid-19-virus-under-laboratory-conditions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/914335-two-mouthwashes-disrupt-covid-19-virus-under-laboratory-conditions latest; October 21, 2020

Multiple mouthwash and oral rinse products wiped out a human coronavirus closely related to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in a laboratory comparison study.

Listerine Antiseptic led the list of most effective mouthwashes for inactivating the coronavirus. Interestingly, a 1% nasal rinse solution of Johnson's Baby Shampoo also worked, eliminating up to 99.9% of the viral load in the in vitro experiments.

In contrast, use of a neti pot nasal solution yielded no decrease in virus levels.

The study was published in the Journal of Medical Virology...

DJ In my idea/hope cleaning up the upper respitory system may help limiting virus spread. But it is just one of very many steps...(1% nasal rinse solution of baby shampoo could also have some effect. But is it that much better then water ot moutwash ?)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/919467-authoritarianism-advances-as-world-battles-the-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/919467-authoritarianism-advances-as-world-battles-the-pandemic DJ; "Never waste a good crisis"...to keep democracy in balance you need good opposition...and there may be a problem here...How to limit virus spread without limiting freedoms ? 

DJ-my opinion-we need to get the spread under R0=0,1 (so not under 1...). The present systematic "out of control" episodes during this pandemic is undermining any support for non-pharma interventions (NPI).  Better once a two-three month lockdown, with very massive testing, forced quarantine then "years of half steps" doing much more damage to the economy, democracy, trust...

A pandemic has to be a medical problem, not another political fight...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/925134-kenya-alarm-raised-over-respiratory-illness-affecting-donkeys-in-lamu[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/925134-kenya-alarm-raised-over-respiratory-illness-affecting-donkeys-in-lamuThe Lamu County Livestock department has raised the alarm over the outbreak of a respiratory disease among donkeys on Lamu Island.

By Monday, at least 60 donkeys within Lamu town had already been reported to suffer from the strange respiratory infection, said to be of high morbidity...

DJ Link to CoViD ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924753-rev-med-virol-behaviour-of-aerosols-and-their-role-in-the-transmission-of-sars-cov-2-a-scoping-review[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/924753-rev-med-virol-behaviour-of-aerosols-and-their-role-in-the-transmission-of-sars-cov-2-a-scoping-reviewThe highly contagious nature and airborne transmission route of SARS-CoV-2 virus requires extraordinary measures for its containment. It is necessary to know the behaviour of aerosols carrying the virus to avoid this contagion. This paper describes the behaviour of aerosols and their role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 according to published models using a scoping review based on the PubMed, Scopus, and WOS databases. From an initial 530 references, 9 papers were selected after applying defined inclusion criteria. The results reinforce the airborne transmission route as a means of contagion of the virus and recommend the use of face masks, extending social distance to more than 2 metres, and natural ventilation of enclosed spaces as preventive measures. These results contribute to a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 and help design effective strategies to prevent its spread.

DJ humidity may be a factor in spread. Higher humidity=heavier virus parts=less spread. 

-Other news

[url]https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/06/weather/italy-flood-oman-climate-change/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/06/weather/italy-flood-oman-climate-change/index.html  DJ; Extreme rain in Genua-Italy (more rain in 24 hrs then we get in NL all year. A new European record !) 

[url]https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-firms-up-plan-for-2035-road-and-railway-to-Taiwan[/url] or https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/China-up-close/Analysis-China-firms-up-plan-for-2035-road-and-railway-to-Taiwan DJ; Bejing may play the "nationalistic card" ="we are all Chinese" trying to get Taiwan more under Bejing control...

(In a more agressive scenario Russia and China may start a conflict with Japan. Japan is hated in East Asia for crimes before 1945. Both Russia and China claim some islands now under Japan control.)

Music; Your Mother Should Know - The Beatles - 1967 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAn6iDCpK5k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAn6iDCpK5k ...crazy clip from "another world"...


work in progres

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DJ,well said  at the beginning of your post,

I guess we are a little bit like a family on here,

I think it's best not to take some of the arguments to much to heart ,we all have good days and bad in our personal lives,

What we are going through with this pandemic is unprecedented in the modern world,never has the human race been through anything like this with the technology we have now , IE being able to communicate as we do ,argue as we do ......

We should stick to the topic,and not get into the  politics of it all ,but that is or seems not possible ,

I'm guilty of maybe expressing myself sometimes a bit strongly,

I shouldn't but I'm human,

Best not to take the things to personally,on some posts,

some including me take the opportunity to vent ...... frustrations of the  day to day living with covid,or life in general ,bad day at work , someone pissed you off , your hung over etc etc....

Wonder what a good night in the pub with all of us might end up like ,

All drunk and singing I hope .....

Anyway keep up the good work DJ,

Your the voice of reason on here as is EdwinSm

Take care all 😷😉💉


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 09 2021 at 11:19pm

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Aurelius[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Aurelius ; Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (/ɔːˈrliəs/ ə-REE-lee-əs;[2] 26 April 121 – 17 March 180) was a Roman emperor from 161 to 180 and a Stoic philosopher. He was the last of the rulers known as the Five Good Emperors (a term coined some 13 centuries later by Niccolò Machiavelli), and the last emperor of the Pax Romana (27 BC to 180 AD), an age of relative peace and stability for the Roman Empire. He served as Roman consul in 140, 145, and 161.

People did not change that much in many ways...Some still seeking "absolute truthts", others accepting live is learning...nothing is absolute...Carbon20-maybe some people on this forum should realize their limits, opinions, perspectives a little bit more...(this is NOT a scientific forum-but it is supposed to discuss science....)

-Dr. John Campbell reacting on a bbc-article (bbc=UK-RT) on Ivermectin [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy7c_FHiEac[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zy7c_FHiEac . It looks like "this club" also wanted to show they are against "horse medication in humans"....no science needed - just taking a position...

As Dr.J.C. made very, very clear he believes people should take the vaccines available !!! But he also is not ignoring lots of science indicating Ivermectin may help both preventing getting infected or getting better if you are infected...

There are lots of colours between black and white (in fact all colours...). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivermectin ;

Ivermectin was discovered in 1975 and came into medical use in 1981;[12][13] William Campbell and Satoshi Ōmura won the 2015 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine for its discovery and applications.[14] The medication is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines,[15] and is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as an antiparasitic agent.[16] In 2018, ivermectin was the 420th most commonly prescribed medication in the United States, with more than one hundred thousand prescriptions.[17] It is available as a generic medicine.[18][19]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, misinformation has been widely spread claiming that ivermectin is beneficial for treating and preventing COVID-19.[20][21] Such claims are not backed by credible scientific evidence.[22][23] Research into its use is ongoing, and multiple major health organizations, including the Food and Drug Administration, U.S. Centers for Disease Control, the European Medicines Agency, and the World Health Organization have stated that ivermectin is not authorized or approved to treat COVID-19.

DJ Research is ongoing for to long...Just like expecting the EMA to aprove Sputnik-V....

It is good there is a discussion on lots of things...I-DJ-fear profit is part of how governments deal with this pandemic....It would be more then welcome to look who is getting rich from this pandemic. If it turns out to be "politicians" deciding on treatments, vaccines-also having shares in Big Pharma (or family members-"investment clubs" etc. ) I think I would see that as corruption...

For some this pandemic is " a goldmine"-why stop it ? Even if it is killing millions by not stopping airtravel in time...

It is good Dr.J.C. dears to be very critical ! 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global trends for cases -8%, deaths -7%..Every decrease is welcome-but the decrease is slowing down with-in general-still very high numbers and a next wave most likely allready starting...

Europe is still the only "region" where both cases +11% and deaths +14% are going up. The big problems under those statistics are several;

lack of testing/sequencing

lack of restrictions so a lot of spread

most of the cases do not show symptoms

some experts claim "spread without symptoms" is okay-while it is not !

because of high asymptomatic spread more mutations happen-most of them in Delta

since we do not test/sequence enough we basiccaly have no idea of what variants may be spreading in some area's

test-escape may be increasing (Finland-variant started...)

often "no cases detected" is translated into "there are no cases"...

we have seen most of the variants by now-insanity...

total lack of understanding a history of pandemics...

Germany cases +25%, NL cases +30%, UK +6% is not translated into action...Again politics look the other way till hospitals run out of capacity...This time the timing is very bad...spring is almost half a year away for this part of the globe...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator

Only 30% of people who needed to be hospitalized for COVID were back to normal about 6 months after discharge. 

  https://thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(21)00383-0/fulltext

DJ There are different numbers, definitions, for "long CoViD"...but in my opinion I try to avoid catching the virus the best I can...




Seems that based on Chilean data AY.34 would have a very large advantage over B.1.617.2 (growth rate advantage per day of 15% per day, 12-18% 95% CLs) - which would be 103% more infectious with gen time of 4.7 days. But confirmation with data from other countries needed.

DJ Another "tweet" indicating the AY.34 (and AY.33.1 ?) in Delta may be a problematic variant inside a problematic variant...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding5) a recent Vlag van Israël Health Ministry survey showed that about **11% of children** had symptoms that remained after seemingly recovered from COVID-19. #LongCovidKids Ronde punaisesurvey was conducted among 13,834 parents of children aged 3-18 who had recovered from COVID.

Not good at all !

-Flutrackers latest posts; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/923486-c-g-jung-quotations-about-the-shadow[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/923486-c-g-jung-quotations-about-the-shadow"It is a frightening thought that man also has a shadow side to him, consisting not just of little weaknesses- and foibles, but of a positively demonic dynamism. The individual seldom knows anything of this; to him, as an individual, it is incredible that he should ever in any circumstances go beyond himself. But let these harmless creatures form a mass, and there emerges a raging monster; and each individual is only one tiny cell in the monster’s body, so that for better or worse he must accompany it on its bloody rampages and even assist it to the utmost. Having a dark suspicion of these grim possibilities, man turns a blind eye to the shadow side of human nature. Blindly he strives against the salutary dogma of original sin, which is yet so prodigiously true. Yes, he even hesitates to admit the conflict of which he is so painfully aware."

“On the Psychology of the Unconscious” (1912). In CW 7: Two Essays on Analytical Psychology. P.35

DJ I think humans interact with their surroundings...in the 60's smoking was like coffee-most adults did smoke cigarettes-even when they could and should have known the healthissues involved..."War" is "another normal" states can not get enough from...When I think of the last year of World War-2 bombing of Dresden, Wuhan, Tokyo, Hiroshima, Nagasaki killing tens of thousends of people-a lot of them civilians...to end horrors that should not ever be forgotten. The mass murders by nazi's, Japan...

In this pandemic I have many questions on why we are still in this pandemic..."saving the economy by destroying it"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925247-dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-robert-malone-interviewed-by-dr-philip-mcmillan-things-could-get-worse[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925247-dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-robert-malone-interviewed-by-dr-philip-mcmillan-things-could-get-worse  A  [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP31cfD3YOY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP31cfD3YOY link...

DJ-Yes there is a risk "vaccines make matters worse"....ADE can be a factor...I think vaccines did buy us time...and we are wasting that time...Why did we let virusses take over the planet twice ? January 2020 from China, April 2021 from India (Delta) ????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925246-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-plummet-in-southern-us-rise-in-northern-states[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925246-covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-plummet-in-southern-us-rise-in-northern-states

COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations Plummet in Southern US, Rise in Northern States

By Zachary Stieber
October 9, 2021 Updated: October 9, 2021

COVID-19 metrics in southern states like Florida have plummeted in recent weeks while rising in many northern states, including heavily vaccinated ones...

DJ [url]https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-plummet-in-southern-us-rise-in-northern-states_4040470.html[/url] or https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/covid-19-cases-hospitalizations-plummet-in-southern-us-rise-in-northern-states_4040470.html may not be the best source but looking at Europe Denmark, Germany, Finland, NL, UK all relatively high vaccine level...still to many cases...even with some restrictions..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/925226-an-energy-crisis-is-gripping-the-world-with-potentially-grave-consequences[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/925226-an-energy-crisis-is-gripping-the-world-with-potentially-grave-consequences ; Energy is so hard to come by right now that some provinces in China are rationing electricity, Europeans are paying sky-high prices for liquefied natural gas, power plants in India are on the verge of running out of coal, and the average price of a gallon of regular gasoline in the United States stood at $3.25 on Friday — up from $1.72 in April.

As the global economy recovers and global leaders prepare to gather for a landmark conference on climate change, the sudden energy crunch hitting the world is threatening already stressed supply chains, stirring geopolitical tensions and raising questions about whether the world is ready for the green energy revolution when it’s having trouble powering itself right now.

DJ Like in this pandemic we are wasting time...to much words to little action. Post pandemic NL has car-use above 2019 level, public transport 75/80% of 2019 and simply not enough investments in bike-infrastructure...People are willing to use bicycles in NL but "politics"seem to be run by Shell...Energy consumption in many places going up not down !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/925227-genetically-divergent-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-a-h5n8-viruses-in-wild-birds-eastern-china[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/925227-genetically-divergent-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-a-h5n8-viruses-in-wild-birds-eastern-chinaAbstract

In late 2020, we detected 32 highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N8) viruses in migratory ducks in Shanghai, China. Phylogenetic analysis of 5 representative isolates identified 2 sublineages of clade 2.3.4.4b. Each sublineage formed separate clusters with isolates from East Asia and Europe...

DJ It is not "if" but "when" will bird-flu get out of control...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/flash-island-of-la-palma-entire-north-quarter-lifted-10cm-today[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/flash-island-of-la-palma-entire-north-quarter-lifted-10cm-today 

DJ-Maybe the landslide is one risk-all of the volcano exploding even worse...very small chance but these kind of mega-events do happen. Not 0,0000% chance !

Music; Since it is sunday; G L O R I A "les Them" France TV 1965 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhYTb5J2rNc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AhYTb5J2rNc 


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BBC News: Ivermectin: How false science created a Covid 'miracle' drug.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-58170809

All my family now double jabbed......

Take care all 😷😉💉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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The Denver Channel: Clinical trial hopes to determine if Ivermectin and other drugs can be repurposed to fight COVID-19.

https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/national/coronavirus/clinical-trial-hopes-to-determine-if-ivermectin-and-other-drugs-can-be-repurposed-to-fight-covid-19

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 10 2021 at 9:58pm

DJ, 

-Numbers sunday october 10 did see 301,587 new cases and 4,595 deaths reported at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/.

In these sunday numbers UK=#1 with 34,574 new cases, #2=Russia with 28,647 new cases reported. Turkey is at #3  with 28,370 new cases...In deaths Russia #1 with 962 deaths, US #2 with 517 deaths, Mexico #3 with 348 reported deaths...

The global average deaths per million of the population is 624,4 (=0,06244% of the global population so far died from CoViD, 1% from 1 million =10,000- 0,1%=1.000). 

Deaths per million  (dpm) in Peru = 5,950 (=0,595% of its population died from Covid). Brazil = 2,802, USA=2,200, UK=2,015, Spain 1,855, France 1,788, Russia 1,482, South Africa 1,466, Germany 1,130, NL 1,059, Israel 848, Canada 739, Denmark 459, Finland 197 ...

So in deaths the US, UK have over 10 times the number of deaths that Finland did see...over 4 times the DK/Denmark numbers and almost double the NL numbers...

In part "the burden" is related to the average age of the population. Israel has over 30% under 18 y/o....Also the level of vaccinations-the timing matters...Both Israel and the UK started early-I believe december 2020 allready...but still different results...

It the dpm list the US is doing better then South Africa or Russia in vaccinations...but (much) worse then the rest of the countries. 

Restrictions also matter. "Saving the economy means bodies piling up" "living with the virus" and other political insanity and crime...

The house is on fire, most of the fire is in the kitchen...so BoJo and the likes put you in the "cooler sittingroom"...simply unable to understand you need to get out of the house...

S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you want this pandemic to stop it is very, very simple !!!! Stop the spread !!!! Not to go-again-see cases rise till hospitals break down...New cases=new mutations=new variants=worse pandemic !

CoViD-19 is very likely spreading (limited I hope) in non-human hosts...from deer, cat/mink-like animals to whatever...Since we hardly test we hardly know...

Trends "looking good" global cases -9%, deaths -8%...giving room for lots of wishfull thinking-lack of realism...

UK cases +8%, Germany +27%, NL +36%, Australia +16%, Singapore +45%, Poland +51%, Chile +20%, Egypt +9%...

Before the end of this month global cases/deaths will be in the +....I expect both Delta AY.33.1/AY.34 sub-variants AND some other variants (B.1.620 ?) to become problematic...to many regions see an increase of cases...

The big problem is failing politics...just like with climate collapse denialism, ignoring science...Some of the crazy politicians may think "we can vote on this pandemic" if the majority claims it is over we can ignore the risks...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-emerging-diseases-other-health-threats/925265-china-xiaolangdi-reservoir-on-the-yellow-river-is-facing-a-severe-test-october-10-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-emerging-diseases-other-health-threats/925265-china-xiaolangdi-reservoir-on-the-yellow-river-is-facing-a-severe-test-october-10-2021 ; The situation of preventing the Yellow River from flooding in autumn is grim. On October 10, the cover news reporter learned from the Ministry of Water Resources that the Yellow River Xiaolangdi Reservoir had the highest water level of 273.5 meters since the construction of the reservoir at 20:00 on the 9th, and the safety of the project was facing a severe test.

DJ Italy-Genua did see 88 cm-almost 1 meter !!!-of rain in 24 hrs...a few days ago. Our watersystem can not handle that kind of crazy numbers..."a severe test" may mean a reservoir is overflowing...

I also follow the [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/side-blown-out-of-lapalma-volcano[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/side-blown-out-of-lapalma-volcano story...In my non-expert idea-a main risk by now could be all of the volcano(s)/Island exploding...worse then a landslide...If that amount of energy would cause a tsunami of meters on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean is in discussion...

However [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami ; see [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami#Tsunami[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami#Tsunami The Indonesia earthquake (december 2004) did see tsunami waves reaching east Africa...We do see these kinds of global events several times in a century...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/astronomy/925266-an-updated-solar-cycle-25-prediction-with-aft-the-modern-gleissberg-minimum[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/astronomy/925266-an-updated-solar-cycle-25-prediction-with-aft-the-modern-gleissberg-minimum -see also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Patterns[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Patterns -and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/astronomy/925262-oct-11-geomagnetic-storm-warning-a-halo-cme-is-coming[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/astronomy/925262-oct-11-geomagnetic-storm-warning-a-halo-cme-is-coming

Oct 11: GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING; A 'HALO CME' IS COMING


https://spaceweather.com/archive.php...h=10&year=2021
GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING: NOAA forecasters have modeled the trajectory of yesterday's CME and confirmed that it will likely arrive on Oct. 11th. The impact could spark G1 to G2-class geomagnetic storms. If a moderately-strong G2-storm materializes, sky watchers in the United States could see auroras as far south as a line connecting New York to Oregon. Aurora alerts: SMS Text.
A 'HALO CME' IS COMING: This could be the first head-on CME strike of young Solar Cycle 25. Yesterday, Oct. 9th, an M1.6-class solar flare in the magnetic canopy of sunspot SR2882 hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. SOHO coronagraphs recorded the storm cloud coming almost straight toward us:
This is called a 'halo CME' because CMEs heading directly for Earth seem to form a 360-degree halo around the sun. CMEs heading directly away from Earth can form a halo, too, but that's another story.

So far this year, dozens of CMEs have missed Earth. Many of them were near misses, provoking no more than minor geomagnetic unrest as they passed by. This time, however, the sun is shooting straight...

DJ [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/925268-the-sun-as-a-significant-agent-provoking-earthquakes[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/925268-the-sun-as-a-significant-agent-provoking-earthquakes 

There may be statistics in the direction of solar activity/space weather influencing earthquakes...The sun is a (very) major factor for life on Earth...However we do not know that much about how "space weather" influences activity on Earth..Communication/electricity may be effected......to be honest you may know more of this then I do...

When I look at earthquakes I do see an increase of deep earthquakes, seismic activity...Understanding "space weather" and its role in earthquakes and volcano's could help predicting that kind of events ????

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest-reactions on Dr.John Campbell his video on Ivermectin ; Dr. Campbell weighs in on this article. I agree 100% with his comment that he is greedy - he wants both effective vaccines and great treatment options. I do not know why the woke culture to trying to make us choose? Why can't we have both?

DJ One of his remarks; Merck its patent on Ivermectin did run out...so they can no longer make a lot of money out of it...DJ-Again !!! We have to STOP mixing pandemics, disasters with making money ! This is the worst global crisis in decades-we need emergency laws, increase of vaccine productions...not more profits for Big Pharma (and its political share holders...) .

Big Pharma, Fossil Fuel industry, Military-Industrial-Complex (MIC), car/aircraft industry "donate" /buy political parties...Democrazy makes evere $, €, Yen count...A selfdestructive corrupt rotten system that has to go before "we go"....

-Some twitters [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor ; Endemic, or not to be endemic. That is not the question. The question is about how endemic do you want it? Do you accept the risks that come with high levels of infections? Are you investing in solid surveillance to detect trend changes? Can you?

DJ Lazy, crazy politicians "claiming we have to live with the virus" without telling how that will look like...Lockdowns when hospitals crash ? Stop testing till new variants cause that much chaos you have to start testing again ? Blind capitalism is a dead-end road and the only thing our "leaders" can think of is increasing speed...

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZFocusing on PCR as a screening method today necessarily equates to low frequency screening. With a virus that transmits before people feels symptoms, low frequency testing equates to missing the infectious stage of most people’s infections. Catching them too late, or never.

DJ This info was from october 1 2020....We keep running behind the facts...reopening with vaccine passports resulting-again-in cases exploding because vaccines are far from perfect....

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Correlation noted with hospitalisation, ICU admission and death. Possible reasons: 1. High throat/NP viral load could either be from heavier inoculum, which means dense exposure from a high viral aerosol setting, or 




2. It could also mean failure of innate immunity to clear virus from upper airway mucosa. People tested early in public health testing facilities on average 2 days after onset of symptoms, which means the study values truly represent the peak viral load in each individual.

Neuro Long Covid may signify persistent infection. Great paper by the way, and good data on what looks to me like functional depletion. I still believe people who have been infected and have neuro LC should get a boost of vaccine, bc abs can help clear out reservoirs.

DJ We may still not know enough on long Covid (LC)...do-sometimes-some virus remain in the body (hidden) to restart infections ? 

Ignoring long-CoViD is one of many acts of criminal stupidity ....

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding  

Evidence for airborne SARS-COV-2 transmission between 2 people who visited same bathroom 40 min apart* Conclusion backed up by contact tracing, CCTV, & virus' genomic sequence. *Bathroom was poorly ventilated due to malfunctioning air exhaust.

DJ Spread by aerosols-very small virus-particles in the air is one of the less recognized risks. Ventilation also in bathrooms !

-La Palma volcano/BPEarthWatch [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Qw3MUIUC4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Qw3MUIUC4 DJ-As far as I know BPEarthWatch is NOT a scientist...that does not mean he is speaking non-sense eventhough I do not always agree with his views...

Scientists may find themselves in the position they have to tell politics their policies are a total disaster...and then see funding is ended...So "non-scientists" do have o role to play...with some "citizens" being paid by "lobby groups" to deny smoking kills, deny climate "change" (we are beyond "change"...) also claiming "there is no pandemic-it is all a hoax...". 

Humans are very emotional beings...and you have to take feelings and emotions serious. We did see "wrong expectations" in the past. "Home by christmas" wars that lasted years, killed millions...Both in climate collapse and (this) pandemic(s) both politics and the general public "do not like alarmists"...

And you are an alarmist when you claim "things can go very wrong"....

-Music; Doobie Brothers - Listen To The Music - TopPop 1975 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkytJLoxGmQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkytJLoxGmQ 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 11 2021 at 12:15am

In looking at the figures for USA   (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/), I find it very worrying that only 5 individual states has a death toll less than that of Puerto Rico (942 deaths/million) These States are: Vermont, Hawaii, Alaska, Maine and Utah.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 11 2021 at 9:57pm

DJ, 

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

October 11 did see worldwide 316,787 cases reported, 4,662 deaths...low weekend numbers. 

In cases 50,466 - US, 40,224 - UK and 30,563 Turkey form the top 3. 

Deaths Russia 957, USA  406, Iran 276 = top 3

Trends both cases/deaths -7%...

UK cases +12%, Germany +28%, NL +42% (!!!!), Australia +12%. US reported cases -17%...

When you look at US states total US deaths = 734,611 of a global 4,872,880 reported CoViD-deaths, between 15 and 20% of all reported CoViD-deaths are in the US, with about 4% of the global population...Now China only claimed 4,636 CoViD deaths on a population of 1,439,323,776 (over 1,4 billion)...a little under 20% of the global population only did see 0,01% of the global CoViD deaths (in their claims...however strict lockdowns, massive vaccination, testing, contact tracing etc give these claims some validity..)

The US has 2,219 CoViD deaths per million-worldwide the average is 625,1. Peru still on top of this list with 5,951 deaths per million reported...definition is not always the same, a lot of countries (including NL) keep deaths in care centers out of those statistics ("those people would die anyway" logics ???). Also a.o. (I think) Russia, UK only include people dying 28 days/4 weeks after a positive test. 

Looking at deaths per million in US states 4 US states (Mississippi, New Jersey, Louisiana and Alabama have over 3,000 deaths per million. This is 0,3%+ of the state population dying from CoViD ....Worldwide only 6 countries are at that level. 

The US has 26 states at dpm between 2,000 and 3,000. Worldwide only 20 countries fall in that range...UK just with 2,016 dpm...

Again there are many factors...a young population (like a.o. Israel, lots of Africa) will result in lower dpm. A high level of vaccinations (and with that vaccinating the most vulnarable most/first) also matters...

Diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure, hearthproblems all will result in a higher dpm...another factor is stress, trust that "your country will provide basic help" also will be factors...

Most countries provide vaccinations for free. However loss of income, basic healthcare, work/study from home does see a lot of differences...

Since I am neither neutral or objective-also NOT an expert...my impression is that if governments play a bigger, more active role, they protect the population better...US, UK, NL were the top 3 "best prepared for a pandemic countries in 2019"...all three have right wing governments that failed to protect their population...

Like many other countries "going for herd immunity" may have meant "keep the planes flying"...importing virus/variants in the-insane-hope on herd immunity...Even now "boosting immunity via natural infection" is a form of criminal insanity widespread...

The total lack of understanding basics of both healthcare and pandemics with many "politicians" remains shocking. They still are destroying (public) healthcare out of stupidity...Just like with "climate change" words are NOT translated in relevant actions...

We have to rethink how our democracies work...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925247-dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-robert-malone-interviewed-by-dr-philip-mcmillan-things-could-get-worse[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925247-dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-robert-malone-interviewed-by-dr-philip-mcmillan-things-could-get-worse latests ; 

Excellent video. I find their points logical and of great interest. I can not speak to whether their interpretation of the science is correct because I am not a virologist.

I agree with Dr. Malone that the West is a "vaccine pig". i.e. The West is consuming most of the vaccine and is, therefore, preventing the effective distribution worldwide. Don't use the vaccine as an economic weapon. Use available agents for early intervention, like monoclonal antibodies. Make home test kits readily available. Encourage people to assess their own risk analysis of themselves.

A point that he mentions ("ghost in the data") is that the UK & Scottish data shows "excess" deaths in the vaccinated once "confounders" are adjusted for. I would like to see the paper on this because it is not how I see the data. I am going to send him an email and see if he answers on this issue.

Dr. Bossche's main point is that mass vaccination is driving evolutionary immune pressure to create more resistant mutant strains, especially infectious pressure. Overcrowding (& hygiene) is probably his 2nd main point. Overcrowding creates an environment for the acceleration of all types of communicable disease problems. As he says, this is a "no brainer".

I find nothing controversial here. It is the same type of scientific debate that I have seen and read for 15 years. I remember the huge international debate and fighting over whether migratory wild birds could spread disease. It is now settled science.

Again - FluTrackers provides information. We do not promote anything. Do your research. Do not take medical advice from the internet.

If you have any medical questions - consult your medical practitioner.


Bossche c.v.: https://37b32f5a-6ed9-4d6d-b3e1-5ec6...502752684f.pdf

Malone background: https://www.rwmalonemd.com/about-us


Disclosure: I am high risk and fully vaccinated. I carry a mask and practice social distancing. I have not made my decision on the booster but I am leaning toward getting it.

I am not woke.

-

From:"FluTrackers"
To: "Robert Malone"
Subject: Question about "ghost in the data" comment in video
Date: Oct 11, 2021 9:14 AM


Hi Dr. Malone!

Could you elaborate on your comment about the "ghost in the data" relating to the excess deaths in vaccinated people in the UK and Scottish COVID-19 data?

Here is the link to the video and your comment is at 1:41:25.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP31cfD3YOY

We will publish, in its entirety, your response. You may not know us but we do not play any games. We do not "bash". We do not have any agenda except public health. We do not sell or promote anything.

Sincerely,

Sharon Sanders
Editor-in-Chief
FluTrackers.com
https://flutrackers.com/forum/

DJ I did not yet see much of the video...My impression is "experts" became hostages of "politics" (like in the IPCC on "climate change"). It would be more then welcome if more experts would find better ways to share their worries...Embedded media, "politics" often fail to do a good (enough) job...

In my opinion "the establishment" still is failing to take this pandemic (and climate change etc.) serious..Providing false hope based on wishfull thinking...this will result in a social crisis AND a health crisis...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925299-diabetes-care-covid-19-hyperglycemia-and-new-onset-diabetes[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925299-diabetes-care-covid-19-hyperglycemia-and-new-onset-diabetes ; Abstract

Certain chronic comorbidities, including diabetes, are highly prevalent in people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and are associated with an increased risk of severe COVID-19 and mortality. 

Mild glucose elevations are also common in COVID-19 patients and associated with worse outcomes even in people without diabetes. 

Several studies have recently reported new-onset diabetes associated with COVID-19. The phenomenon of new-onset diabetes following admission to the hospital has been observed previously with other viral infections and acute illnesses. 

The precise mechanisms for new-onset diabetes in people with COVID-19 are not known, but it is likely that a number of complex interrelated processes are involved, including previously undiagnosed diabetes, stress hyperglycemia, steroid-induced hyperglycemia, and direct or indirect effects of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on the β-cell. 

There is an urgent need for research to help guide management pathways for these patients. 

In view of increased mortality in people with new-onset diabetes, hospital protocols should include efforts to recognize and manage acute hyperglycemia, including diabetic ketoacidosis, in people admitted to the hospital. 

Whether new-onset diabetes is likely to remain permanent is not known, as the long-term follow-up of these patients is limited. 

Prospective studies of metabolism in the setting of postacute COVID-19 will be required to understand the etiology, prognosis, and treatment opportunities.

DJ There is a "diabetes pandemic" in part linked to obesity, unhealthy food...but lots of other factors are not that clear. There may be a correletion with bad air quality ? (Bad air=more infections=more likely some of these infections may result in diabetes ?) Also there seems to be a link with auto-immune diseases...thyroid problems can result in weight problems that result in diabetes. Also mental health, stress most likely are factors...

You get "healthy people" in a "healthy society"...if air polution, noise, fat food is "the normal" unhealthy people is the outcome..."Fat shaming" often is blaming the victum...a way to avoid looking at how to get better public health...

(I could go on about public transport, bikes...politics claim they promote that while cars are increasing and "e-cars" gets crazy amounts of subsidies. Tax money going to the rich...again and again...Income inequality stronger is worsening public health...we "are killing ourselves"..)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/925298-proc-natl-acad-sci-u-s-a-covid-19-cynomolgus-macaque-model-reflecting-human-covid-19-pathological-conditions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/925298-proc-natl-acad-sci-u-s-a-covid-19-cynomolgus-macaque-model-reflecting-human-covid-19-pathological-conditions ; Abstract

The pandemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a global threat to human health and life. 

A useful pathological animal model accurately reflecting human pathology is needed to overcome the COVID-19 crisis.

 In the present study, COVID-19 cynomolgus monkey models including monkeys with underlying diseases causing severe pathogenicity such as metabolic disease and elderly monkeys were examined. 

Cynomolgus macaques with various clinical conditions were intranasally and/or intratracheally inoculated with SARS-CoV-2. 

Infection with SARS-CoV-2 was found in mucosal swab samples, and a higher level and longer period of viral RNA was detected in elderly monkeys than in young monkeys. 

Pneumonia was confirmed in all of the monkeys by computed tomography images.

 When monkeys were readministrated SARS-CoV-2 at 56 d or later after initial infection all of the animals showed inflammatory responses without virus detection in swab samples. 

Surprisingly, in elderly monkeys reinfection showed transient severe pneumonia with increased levels of various serum cytokines and chemokines compared with those in primary infection. 

The results of this study indicated that the COVID-19 cynomolgus monkey model reflects the pathophysiology of humans and would be useful for elucidating the pathophysiology and developing therapeutic agents and vaccines.

DJ-I hope to be correct in my summary; natural immunity was NOT a protective factor after 56 days or later...Reinfection did bring more severe disease (specialy in older monkeys). No virus detection in swab samples after reïnfection ??? (DJ-Do I get that correct ? Would that mean people getting reinfected after natural infection may test negative in PCR-testing ??? Do they spread the virus or does natural reinfection see (most of) the virus attacking the host itself ?)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925279-clin-microbiol-infect-a-new-sars-cov-2-variant-poorly-detected-by-rt-pcr-on-nasopharyngeal-samples-with-high-lethality-an-observational-study[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925279-clin-microbiol-infect-a-new-sars-cov-2-variant-poorly-detected-by-rt-pcr-on-nasopharyngeal-samples-with-high-lethality-an-observational-study ; Abstract

Objectives: In early January 2021, an outbreak of nosocomial cases of COVID-19 emerged in Western France, with RT-PCR tests repeatedly negative on nasopharyngeal samples but positive on lower respiratory tract samples. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) revealed a new variant, currently defining a novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage: B.1.616. In March, WHO classified this variant as 'under investigation' (VUI). We analyzed the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 cases related to this new variant.


Methods: Clinical, virological, and radiological data were retrospectively collected from medical charts in the two hospitals involved. We enrolled inpatients with either: i) positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR on a respiratory sample; ii) seroconversion with anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgM; iii) suggestive symptoms and typical features of COVID-19 on a chest CT scan. Cases were categorized as either: i) B.1.616; ii) variant of concern (VOC); iii) unknown.


Results: From January 1st to March 24th, 2021, 114 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria: B.1.616 (n=39), VOC (n=32), and unknown (n=43). B.1.616-related cases were older than VOC-related cases (81 years interquartile range [IQR] [73-88], vs 73 years IQR [67-82], P<0.05) and their first RT-PCR tests were rarely positive (6/39, 15% vs 31/32, 97%, P<0.05). B.1.616 variant was independently associated with severe disease (multivariable Cox model HR 4.0 95% CI [1.5-10.9]), and increased lethality: 28-day mortality 18/39 (46%) for B.1.616, vs. 5/32 (16%) for VOC, P=0.006.


Conclusion: We report a nosocomial outbreak of COVID-19 cases related to a new variant, B.1.616, poorly detected by RT-PCR on nasopharyngeal samples, with high lethality.

DJ-I hate this !!! It looks like (from) early this year (French) hospitals did see older patients catching CoViD19-variant B.1.616 often missed in PCR testing, resulting in more severe disease...Lower respitory detection means you have to go towards the lungs to find the virus...Lots of cases will be missed ! Also it could mean people could test positive for another variant in the upper respitory system while B.1.616 is doing most of the damage lower in the body (but is missed...). See also [url]https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=B.1.616[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=B.1.616 the B.1.616 variant has not been detected since march...all of the limited cases seem to have been in western France...However lots of cases most likely missed since testing lower respitory system is "less common" (as far as I know)...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925278-int-j-infect-dis-predicting-the-effective-reproduction-number-of-covid-19-inference-using-human-mobility-temperature-and-risk-awareness[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925278-int-j-infect-dis-predicting-the-effective-reproduction-number-of-covid-19-inference-using-human-mobility-temperature-and-risk-awareness ; Abstract

Objectives: The effective reproduction number (Rt) is critical for assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Conventional methods using reported incidence are unable to provide Rt timely due to the delay from infection to reporting. Here, we aim to develop a framework to predict the Rt in real-time using timely accessible data, i.e., human mobility, temperature, and risk awareness.
Methods: A linear regression model to predict Rt was designed and embedded in the renewal process. Four prefectures of Japan with high incidence in the first wave were selected for model fitting and validation. Predictive performance was assessed by comparing the observed and predicted incidence using cross-validation, by testing on a separate dataset in two other prefectures with distinct geographical settings from the four prefectures.
Results: The predicted mean values of Rt and 95% uncertainty intervals well traced the overall trend of incidence, while predictive performance was diminished when Rt abruptly changed potentially due to superspreading events and when stringent countermeasures were implemented.
Conclusions: The described model can potentially be used for monitoring the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 ahead of the formal estimates subject to delay, providing essential information for timely planning and assessment of countermeasures.

DJ I am trying to see if the NL R0 number is that different from the weekly trend numbers...[url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/reproductiegetal[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/reproductiegetal the R0 in NL now stands at 1,02 reflecting september 23-obtained october 8. NL trend for cases for october 11 is +42%...how far is that from an R0 of 1,42 ??? (And why ???)

Could "simple statistics" (corrected for corrections-but it is allready a weekly trend !) not be a good indicator ? Is "waiting for the R0 to explode" providing "politics" with yet another excuse for inaction ???)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/925277-biomed-pharmacother-metformin-to-decrease-covid-19-severity-and-mortality-molecular-mechanisms-and-therapeutic-potential[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/925277-biomed-pharmacother-metformin-to-decrease-covid-19-severity-and-mortality-molecular-mechanisms-and-therapeutic-potential Interestingly, metformin, an extensively used antidiabetic drug, inhibits mTOR by affecting the activity of AMPK. Therefore, activation of AMPK and/or inhibition of the mTOR-mediated signaling pathway may be an important new target for drug therapy in COVID-19 cases mostly by reducing the level of pro-inflammatory signaling and cytokine storm. These suggestions have been partially confirmed by several retrospective analyzes of patients with diabetes mellitus hospitalized for severe COVID-19.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metformin[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MetforminIn 2018, it was the fourth-most commonly prescribed medication in the United States, with more than 83 million prescriptions.

It would be just another blow to "experts/healthcare" if Metformin (discovered in 1922) would show to be effective...

-Some twitters (often re-tweets from others) ;

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ; Another reason to vaccinate the world: COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant mortality increases in 2020 of a magnitude not witnessed since World War II

DJ link =[url]https://academic.oup.com/ije/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyab207/6375510?searchresult=1[/url] or https://academic.oup.com/ije/advance-article/doi/10.1093/ije/dyab207/6375510?searchresult=1 

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculatorLikewise it's a dereliction of duty for someone to say "we don't have the data" when they didn't even do the google or twitter search. People who don't do their research shouldn't be anointed with decision-making or policy-influencing authority.

and So even if masks aren't 100% perfect (there aren't) they can block enough of the virus being inhaled to prevent symptomatic or serious illness. Similarly explains how sometimes fleeting contact is enough (high enough viral load or airborne particle densities where contact occurs)

we live in a far from perfect world where every help should be welcome...A mix of steps do decrease risks for severe disease. Keeping the viral load as low as possible does limit risks for severe disease...

Unfortunately, it's just the #SARS2 rhythm. Two months up, two months down... A new global wave has already started, with the Delta variant now everywhere.

Some realism...this pandemic is hitting poor, black, hispanic, "foreign worker groups/refugees" etc. much harder then it is hitting a rich elite that did cause the problem (and in fact is in power...lifting restrictions so they can go party-ing...). 

We should worry more about a global recession? While we obsess about surging global energy prices crimping consumer spending power, has anyone noticed the explosion in fertilizer costs that will soon feed into already rampant food price inflation? Yikes!

A crisis is always part of a bigger proces. 

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding 

What does the moon landing have to do with it? A marker of human progress. There were 51 years from 1918 to 1969. And 51 years from 1969 to 2020. and 51+ ways we have screwed up despite now having a vaccine.

DJ Other bad news; Watching—Doctors are warning of possible rise in cases of a debilitating nervous-system disorder—likely associated with #LongCovid. Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) affect autonomic nervous system that controls body’s “automatic” functions.

link; [url]https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/doctors-warn-of-possible-rise-of-debilitating-nervous-system-disorder-in-patients-with-long-covid-19-1.5615322[/url] or https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/doctors-warn-of-possible-rise-of-debilitating-nervous-system-disorder-in-patients-with-long-covid-19-1.5615322 

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1What's even more worrying to me is the lack of learning from failures. UK policy is still exceptional & not in line with global evidence. Mistakes that led to mass tragedy are still being repeated & 'herd immunity' through mass infection of our young still seems govt policy.

DJ It is not only the UK providing free travel for variants over and over again, lifting restrictions to early over and over again...Again-just like in climate "change" politics keep failing ! Simply not willing to see the risks...

6000 referrals for long COVID *each month*, 1.1 million people living with long COVID & >400,000 having suffered >1 yr. 1 in 10 people being seen in clinic now are NHS workers- many for long COVID. This tragedy was *entirely* preventable.

There may soon hardly be any HCW-er, teacher etc. left

-I was expecting to see Dr. John Campbell his reaction on the parliamentary study on how the UK government/BoJo failed to deal with this pandemic...I hope to see his reaction in the coming days...

Music; Leo Sayer - You Make Me Feeling Like Dancing - 1976 -introduced by Lou Rawls in The Midnight Special [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE-Okqna4sQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iE-Okqna4sQ (it is raining...better have good music !)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, 

I did find time to look at the discussion between Geert van den Bossche-Belgium and Robert Malone (GvdB/RM) US (led by a UK GP). [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP31cfD3YOY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qP31cfD3YOY .

As a non-expert some remarks;

The idea of "vaccine-selective pressure" in my opinion should be a real worry. Vaccines offering the best protection against some of the variants leaving room for other variants to spread in the vaccinated.

So massive vaccination will result in pressure for variants that somehow find a way around the vaccines..

My point would be that the virusses spreading on a large scale will result in (natural) immunity evading variants anyway...

The UK variant, P1, SA (Alfa, Beta, Gamma) showed up before mass vaccinations started...Delta started in India before large numbers of people did get vaccinated there. 

Evolution of the virus does not need vaccines...just mutations and a very high number of hosts...

However I do agree with the idea that vaccines offer limited protection. And that time by now is running out...

-Looking at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ -in weekly trends both cases and deaths -6%...still going down but it is slowing down...we most likely will see global cases increase this month-again. 

October 12 did see 389,864 reported cases, 6,745 deaths...US did report 1,480 deaths, UK 38,520 new cases...numbers are still very high. Even in countries with a high level of vaccinations (GvdB/RM expected this kind of numbers due to vaccine-selection). 

Here in NL cases up 49%, deaths -17% in a week-trend. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/12/dutch-coronavirus-situation-deteriorating-48-rise-infections-sharp-jump-hospitalizations[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/12/dutch-coronavirus-situation-deteriorating-48-rise-infections-sharp-jump-hospitalizations and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/12/covid-hospital-total-nears-three-week-high-daily-coronavirus-infections-67-days[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/12/covid-hospital-total-nears-three-week-high-daily-coronavirus-infections-67-days ;

"The expected autumnal increase seems to have started," according to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM).


The number of positive tests increased in every age group. The virus was found in 1,434 children aged 5 to 9 years last week. That is 55 percent more than the week before. Among 45- to 49-year-olds, the number of new infections rose by almost 62 percent. An increase of almost 75 percent was determined among people in their seventies. There was a jump of almost 80 percent among the over-90 population, but the aggregate numbers remained fairly small.

-

A relatively high proportion of people contracted the coronavirus at a school or at the office, making them important “locations of infections,” the RIVM said. The source of infection is not known for everyone who tested positive, with the source identified in only about 30 percent of those diagnosed with the coronavirus this week.

Out of that subset, more than half were infected at home by another household resident. Household visits led to another 14 percent of infections.

Another 14 percent likely acquired the virus at a school or childcare facility, similar to last week. From the start of August through this week, about 10 percent of infections were linked to those locations.

The workplace resulted in 8 percent of traced infections, similar to last week but higher than in early August. Infections as the result of birthday parties, happy hours, and weddings are also becoming more common.

-

The small town of Staphorst, with a population of just over 17 thousand, came in fifth place with 50 new infections. The sudden, rapid flare-up in the Overijssel town raised concerns about increasing infections in Bible Belt municipalities. Staphorst ranks second to last for Covid-19 vaccination rates, just ahead of Urk.

DJ Giving up social distance in return for "vaccine passports" does hardly get mentioned in NL. A "blame game"; autumn/fall and unvaccinated did cause the rise in cases...With a lot of the "unvaccinated" being children under 12 not able to get a vaccine (and in most cases still not getting very ill).

Others did point to the waves-two months cases going up-then two months cases going down...with or without vaccines...

From the GvdB/RM discussion also another basic point; what is the strategy ? Get some sort of global herd immunity via vaccines and/or natural immunity ? We-by now-should know that strategy will not work !

Vaccines still offer good protection against severe disease but at a price of variant-selection (stopping the older variants-allthough one may discuss wether Delta would not be 99%+ of the cases without vaccines...). But vaccines do NOT stop infections...and since that message is being ignored (to "sell" the vaccines) a lot of mild infections do not even see testing...

Natural immunity may be-in general-even worse...(a.o. Manaus-Brazil but by now many other places did see several waves with a high level of the population getting infected...natural immunity ran out after some months...). 

So-maybe the bottom-line from the GvdB/RM discussion is "super variants"...The variants that simply evade immunity...able to infect hosts over and over again...

In many ways as deadly as SARS-1/MERS but spreading like a corona-cold-virus....

DJ STOP THE SPREAD !!!!!!

By lifting most restrictions, insane "living with the virus" (like living with climate "change" =collapse) we are going down the hill...moving towards scenario's far worse then the Spanish Flu...Comparing the flu with corona-virus diseases may be wrong because immunity works different. After getting the flu immunity offers protection..after getting COrona VIral Disease we soon may end up without any defenses...

I missed spread in non-human hosts as a motor for variants in the GvdB/RM discussion...most likely also happening right now...

I think there is also another "selection proces" on its way. Experts that warn this pandemic will get much worse are seen as "alarmists", hysterical, mental-cases...just like in the climate collapse debate...Politics is funding "science" that provides a welcome outcome...not science that do alarm we have to change the way we live..."to save the economy and rich elite"

Depressing...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925398-why-some-nations-have-deadlier-outbreaks-with-the-same-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925398-why-some-nations-have-deadlier-outbreaks-with-the-same-vaccines ;DJ-I hoped for a short summery-but get a link....My answer would be age, underlying health issues, access to healthcare...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925395-cidrap-sars-cov-2-infected-kids-adults-at-belgian-school-equally-study-suggests[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925395-cidrap-sars-cov-2-infected-kids-adults-at-belgian-school-equally-study-suggests ; A team led by Liege University Hospital researchers tested a volunteer sample of 118 parents and school staff and 63 children for COVID-19 each week from Sep 21 to Dec 31, 2020—before the Delta (B1617.2) variant was circulating widely in the country. Participants who tested positive were asked to complete a questionnaire about symptom onset and duration.
Students were 5 to 13 years old (average, 8.6 years), and adults were 30 to 59 years (average, 42.5 years). The 63 students, which included 16 sibling pairs, and 83 parents were from 47 households. The children and teachers were part of 13 class groups.

Kids nearly 4 times as likely to have no symptoms

A total of 45 people (24.9%) tested positive for COVID-19, including 13 students (20.6%) and 32 adults (27.1%). After adjustment for clustering of infected participants in classrooms and households, the difference in infection rates between children and adults was not significant (odds ratio [OR], 0.58). Nor was there a difference between adult groups in terms of infection (25.6% of parents, 40.0% of teachers, 17.6% for staff, and 50.0% for teacher-parents).
"These results suggest that children may play a larger role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 than previously assumed," the researchers wrote.
Thirty-four of 44 participants (77.3%) with symptom data had COVID-19 symptoms. Students were asymptomatic more often than adults (46.2% vs 12.9%), and the children who were symptomatic experienced them for less time than adults (0 vs 15 days).

DJ A.o. Dorsten (Charité-Berlin/Germany) did warn children do spread the virus...Somehow "the power cluster" did choose to ignore it...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925373-f1000res-an-international-virtual-hackathon-to-build-tools-for-the-analysis-of-structural-variants-within-species-ranging-from-coronaviruses-to-vertebrates[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925373-f1000res-an-international-virtual-hackathon-to-build-tools-for-the-analysis-of-structural-variants-within-species-ranging-from-coronaviruses-to-vertebrates ; Abstract

In October 2020, 62 scientists from nine nations worked together remotely in the Second Baylor College of Medicine & DNAnexus hackathon, focusing on different related topics on Structural Variation, Pan-genomes, and SARS-CoV-2 related research. The overarching focus was to assess the current status of the field and identify the remaining challenges. Furthermore, how to combine the strengths of the different interests to drive research and method development forward. Over the four days, eight groups each designed and developed new open-source methods to improve the identification and analysis of variations among species, including humans and SARS-CoV-2. These included improvements in SV calling, genotyping, annotations and filtering. Together with advancements in benchmarking existing methods. Furthermore, groups focused on the diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Daily discussion summary and methods are available publicly at https://github.com/collaborativebioinformatics provides valuable insights for both participants and the research community.

DJ There may be common "mechanisms" for variations. A sort of "natural laws"...Those basics will be related with interactions-how infections spread and the differences in hosts...In many ways a 3D-puzzle...only with lots of possible outcomes...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/925351-heliyon-prak-03202-a-triple-antigen-virus-like-particle-vaccine-candidate-against-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/925351-heliyon-prak-03202-a-triple-antigen-virus-like-particle-vaccine-candidate-against-sars-cov-2 ; The rapid development of safe and effective vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) is a necessary response to coronavirus outbreak. Here, we developed PRAK-03202, the world's first triple antigen virus-like particle vaccine candidate, by cloning and transforming SARS-CoV-2 gene segments into a highly characterized S. cerevisiae-based D-Crypt™ platform, which induced SARS CoV-2 specific neutralizing antibodies in BALB/c mice.

 Immunization using three different doses of PRAK-03202 induced an antigen-specific (spike, envelope, and membrane proteins) humoral response and neutralizing potential.

 Peripheral blood mononuclear cells from convalescent patients showed lymphocyte proliferation and elevated interferon levels suggestive of epitope conservation and induction of T helper 1-biased cellular immune response when exposed to PRAK-03202. These data support further clinical development and testing of PRAK-03202 for use in humans.

DJ (Do I read between the lines they study vaccines on people that may allready be infected ? To help to get rid of the virus ?) In many ways work is on its way for better testing/screening (resulting in within an hour positive testing but also more info on the sequence), treatments, vaccines...I think we should be doing much more to slow down the virus-spread. Vaccines do offer us time to find better solutions...but it is a very complex and costly road...We need more time !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925350-acs-omega-multiplex-biosensing-for-simultaneous-detection-of-mutations-in-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925350-acs-omega-multiplex-biosensing-for-simultaneous-detection-of-mutations-in-sars-cov-2 ;

Due to high demand for SARS-CoV-2 genotyping, it is urgent to develop reliable and efficient systems based on integrated multiple biosensor technology for rapid detection of multiple SARS-CoV-2 mutations simultaneously. This is important not only for the detection and analysis of the current but also for future mutations. Novel biosensors combined with other technologies can be used for the reliable and effective detection of SARS-CoV-2 mutants.
DJ We do need much more testing/sequencing ! Most of the spread-in many rich countries-is in the vaccinated groups. Often without symptoms but nevertheless still a risk since spread=mutations...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925347-lancet-microbe-the-durability-of-immunity-against-reinfection-by-sars-cov-2-a-comparative-evolutionary-study[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925347-lancet-microbe-the-durability-of-immunity-against-reinfection-by-sars-cov-2-a-comparative-evolutionary-studyReinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 months and 5·1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans (5-95% quantiles 15 months to 10 years for HCoV-OC43, 31 months to 12 years for HCoV-NL63, and 16 months to 12 years for HCoV-229E). For SARS-CoV, the 5-95% quantiles were 4 months to 6 years, whereas the 95% quantiles for MERS-CoV were inconsistent by dataset.
Interpretation: The timeframe for reinfection is fundamental to numerous aspects of public health decision making. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, reinfection is likely to become increasingly common. Maintaining public health measures that curb transmission-including among individuals who were previously infected with SARS-CoV-2-coupled with persistent efforts to accelerate vaccination worldwide is critical to the prevention of COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

DJ...One of the major concerns could be a virus NOT leaving the body...showing up with infections from time to time. From the outside it could be seen as "re-infection" but it could be an immune response not being able to get rid of the virus...

Even worse...a scenario in wich DIFFERENT VARIANTS attack different organs in one host...Upper respitory (PCR)testing only picking up one of several SARS-2 variants ([url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.05.21256690v1.full.pdf[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.05.05.21256690v1.full.pdf The French B.1.616 NOT found in upper respitory system but only in the lower respitory system...If in the upper respitory system testing did find another variant the B.1.616 may go undiscovered...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925343-int-j-immunopathol-pharmacol-a-review-antibody-dependent-enhancement-in-covid-19-the-not-so-friendly-side-of-antibodies[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925343-int-j-immunopathol-pharmacol-a-review-antibody-dependent-enhancement-in-covid-19-the-not-so-friendly-side-of-antibodies ; One of the main concerns in the development of vaccines is the antibody-dependent enhancement phenomenon, better known as ADE. In this review, we provide an overview of SARS-CoV-2 infection as well as the immune response generated by the host. On the bases of this principle, we also describe what is known about the ADE phenomenon in various viral infections and its possible role as a limiting factor in the development of new vaccines and therapeutic strategies.

DJ; GvdB/RM introduced "vaccine-dependent-enhancement" . By stopping some virusses antibodies/vaccines may provide room for other variants...(Even with the immune system itself being "hijacked" by the virus-immune response itself spreading viral infection). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/925342-gut-microbes-colonic-expression-of-ace2-the-sars-cov-2-entry-receptor-is-suppressed-by-commensal-human-microbiota[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/925342-gut-microbes-colonic-expression-of-ace2-the-sars-cov-2-entry-receptor-is-suppressed-by-commensal-human-microbiota Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (Ace2) is expressed in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract and a receptor for SARS-CoV-2, making the GI tract a potential infection site. This study investigated the effects of commensal intestinal microbiota on colonic Ace2 expression using a humanized mouse model. We found that colonic Ace2 expression decreased significantly upon microbial colonization. Humanization with healthy volunteer or dysbiotic microbiota from irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) patients resulted in similar Ace2 expression. Despite the differences in microbiota, no associations between α-diversity, β-diversity or individual taxa, and Ace2 were noted post-humanization. These results highlight that commensal microbiota play a key role in regulating intestinal Ace2 expression and the need to further examine the underlying mechanisms of this regulation.

DJ; Lots of "supplements" and much used drugs (Melatonin, Metformin - like Ivermectin, zinc) may result in better immunity. In combination with vaccines they may offer "better protection". 

However in a worst case scenario social distancing-no contact-may prove to do best...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925247-dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-robert-malone-interviewed-by-dr-philip-mcmillan-things-could-get-worse[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925247-dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-robert-malone-interviewed-by-dr-philip-mcmillan-things-could-get-worse latest; This might be the kind of youth case Dr. Vanden Bossche was talking about. Nobody in the family was vaccinated, but only this active 20 yr old died. I understood the theory to be that with a virus circulating as widely for this length of time, active young people may have recently recovered from a very mild or asymptomatic infection a short time before the second infection. Their immune systems can't handle it.
It might have been a case of genetics, but the father's illness was mild, the sister is not reported to have been ill at all. The mother was quite ill but survived.

In this article it is reported that Tyler had allergies that caused his doctor to not recommend vaccination, so it is possible that the allergies played a part, but the rapid illness and death still seem hard to explain to me.

DJ Other studies (a.o. in monkeys) indicate a second infection may be worse...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925356-open-forum-infect-dis-unraveling-a-nosocomial-outbreak-of-covid-19-the-role-of-whole-genome-sequence-analysis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925356-open-forum-infect-dis-unraveling-a-nosocomial-outbreak-of-covid-19-the-role-of-whole-genome-sequence-analysis ; Abstract

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic poses many epidemiological challenges. The investigation of nosocomial transmission is usually performed via thorough investigation of an index case and subsequent contact tracing. Notably, this approach has a subjective component, and there is accumulating evidence that whole-genome sequencing of the virus may provide more objective insight.


Methods: We report a large nosocomial outbreak in 1 of the medicine departments in our institution. Following intensive epidemiological investigation, we discovered that 1 of the patients involved was suffering from persistent COVID-19 while initially thought to be a recovering patient. She was therefore deemed to be the most likely source of the outbreak. We then performed whole-genome sequencing of the virus of 14 infected individuals involved in the outbreak.


Results: Surprisingly, the results of whole-genome sequencing refuted our initial hypothesis. A phylogenetic tree of the samples showed multiple introductions of the virus into the ward, 1 of which led to a cluster of 10 of the infected individuals. Importantly, the results pointed in the direction of a specific index patient that was different from the 1 that arose from our initial investigation.


Conclusions: These results underscore the important added value of using whole-genome sequencing in epidemiological investigations as it may reveal unexpected connections between cases and aid in understanding transmission dynamics, especially in the setting of a pandemic where multiple possible index cases exist simultaneously.

DJ It may be good to have an idea, but putting that idea to the test may proof that basic idea was incorrect-but started the proces of learning...(in that sense it was not "wrong" or "a mistake"-just a first step leading to another road then expected.) 

-I did not see another video from Dr. John Campbell, some twitters;

[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/ ;  “UK along with many other countries in Europe and North America made a serious early error in adopting this fatalistic approach and not considering a more emphatic and rigorous approach to stopping the spread of the virus as adopted by many East and South East Asian countries

and; “UK’s pandemic planning was too narrowly and inflexibly based on a flu model which failed to learn the lessons from SARS, MERS and Ebola. The result was that whilst our pandemic planning had been globally acclaimed, it performed less well than other countries when needed most

DJ To make at least some progres the idea is now to look at "what went wrong" not "who to blame"...problem with that may be wrong choices will go on...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;

I find it frustrating that policymakers continue to move the goalposts. There won't be inflation -> inflation is transitory -> not that kind of transitory, the longer kind -> (next up) more inflation this year means less next year -> (finally, maybe?) more inflation is good.

and ; Lots of us have been SHOUTING about this for a long time. Policy seems to be based on the highly flawed assumption that you get it once, recover and move on. Reinfections can be much worse, even after the vaccine, and STILL LEAD TO LONG COVID. I WILL KEEP SHOUTING INTO THE VOID twitter.com/Dr2NisreenAlwa…

and; Interesting case history: The team found #SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the cerebrospinal fluid of a woman (via RT-PCR) who was hospitalized w/ headache, dizziness, anxiety, palpitations, diarrhea + panic attacks 114 days after an initial asymptomatic case of COVID-19:

DJ Denialism is mainstream both in politics, science, media...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; Saying the virus will be around and we can't stop it is politics, not science. We have stopped many viruses by keeping them at very low levels. We are not doing this with Covid in most places. If there's a will there's a way and the way has been spelled out scientifically.

DJ My opinion-only zero-CoViD is realistic !

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ;

So please do isolate if you have a +ve LFD & if you can, even if PCR -ve. You are likely to be infected, and be able to transmit to others. +ve LFDs and -ve PCRs can happen for different reasons, including quality of swab, type of swab, technical issues.

DJ  Lateral-flow test may pick up virus parts PCR-test miss ? 

DJ; Both GvdB and RM  (discussion link above) are NOT anti-vaccines but question "vaccinating ourselves out of a pandemic"...The "fight" between "pro" and "anti" is not helping...

The "worst variants" with a R0 of 10+ (and variants going exponential) I expect to see in countries with high vaccinations and high spread...I would not be surprised if Israel-going on a large scale for booster vaccines-with still a lot of spread-would see such worse variants...

Israel cases still going down -42% still last week 21,993-this week 12,773 cases on a population of 9,3 million and a high level of (booster) vaccines (in the adult population). 

But such "worse variants" may not need a high level of vaccinations-maybe a lot of spread-and limited vaccinations-may bring the same outcome...It could even go the way that such worse case variant could develop INSIDE Delta-sub-variants...since most cases worldwide are now (as far as tested/sequenced) in the Delta variants...

-Music; a link to "Psychedelic Moods"link for Jimi Hendrix - Hey Joe [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rX-4eluL-HM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rX-4eluL-HM ...DJ-With yet another wave on its way-politics totally failing-I could do with some psychedelic music ! 

By the way [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woaX1ImmpDE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woaX1ImmpDE -Otis Taylor version also "interesting" crazy pictures...

Stay safe and sane...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 13 2021 at 9:56pm

DJ, 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; US 99,775 new cases and 1,819 deaths...UK 42,776 new cases, 136 deaths...

Worldwide 442,107 new cases, 7,521 deaths reported-global trends cases -4%, deaths -6%...as expected we are "slowly" moving into a next wave...

More trends; UK cases +14%, deaths +2%, US cases still -12%, deaths -15%...

In countries with highest increase in % NL made it to #13...+63% increase in cases this week...Still "media" talking we are "post-pandemic"...I did see insanity "pandemics last two years-so it has to be over soon"...totally unrealistic and incorrect...most pandemics the last 2,000 years lasted 9much) longer. Numbers went down to flare up later on or in another region...

Why this corona-virus would stop being a pandemic ? Problem is both vaccine- and natural-immunity seem to have "very limited use". Forget about "herd-immunity"...even the fantasy of "mass vaccinations over and over again" does not work...

Like we did see in non-human corona outbreaks this virus is very hard to control. It is NOT !!! the flu !!!!

Dr.John Campbell may call US numbers going down "very encouraging" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8SQCDIVf1s&t=138s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M8SQCDIVf1s&t=138s ...they are going down from a very high level...

Dr.J.C. talks of "trust" ignoring a UK parliament report on UK-government total faillure in dealing with this pandemic...Is "Dr.J.C." paid by BoJo ? 

Other "encouraging numbers" Germany cases +31%, New Zealand +53%, Denmark +42%, Chile +25%...of course the increase could have been much higher...Maybe the "best" part of news 70 countries reporting increase of cases...the last days a few countries more did so...

The bad news is we see cases going up in countries with a high level of vaccinations. A lack of restrictions is part of the problem. Delta-variant R0 is between 5 and 8-some put it at 5,5 and 6,5...whatever...to high an R0-spread number to control with only vaccines...But "decissionmakers" do not want to hear that news...

Even worse-new cases is most likely missing almost all asymptomatic and mild cases...both in vaccinated and unvaccinated. The virus must be spreading high speed-mutating high speed-getting better and better in evading immunity...and very likely will cause healthissues soon enough in a lot of cases...

But "the establishment" rather talks "post-pandemic", "living with the virus" , "bodies piling up = "endemic" insanity !

Here in NL cases going up "faster then models predicted"...in a press release the (unexpected ?) arrival of "autumn" was mentioned as a major reason....But models were to optimistic on the effects of giving up the social distance rule...we do not have to take 1,5 meter (in practice that is 5 feet-not 6 feet) distance from eachother..so a lot of people think it is safe to get to close to others...

Another factor is the uneven spread of vaccines; in poorer area's in the cities, but also the Dutch "bible-belt"-with orthodox christians vaccination rates often are under 50%...Like in many other countries, better income & education=more vaccinations...

Just like in many other countries low income jobs see (much) more risks for infection. From using public transport, working in high risk jobs, to bad housing...often in larger families. 

Here in NL vaccines are not as political as in the US. The willingness to take vaccines is very high...but some groups are hard to reach. Migration background may see both language and legal status problems...With a lot of orthodox religious groups it seems to be possible to find other ways to reduce risks; 50% of capacity used in religious buildings etc. may not be perfect but it is at least something...

There is a very noisy anti-vax group but it may be less then 5% of the population and moving into extreme right wing direction (like we see in other countries).  By getting even more radical support is decreasing...still they can get violent-are a problem. 

We do see death threats against politicians, doctors, vaccination-workers...but the outcome is these radical anti-vax groups are destroying themselves...

I did see a twitter yesterday...most vaccinated (in the US I believe) expect this pandemic may get worse, most unvaccinated believed we have seen the worst allready...

Experts are very divided-they are also "only humans"...allthough only a few now come up with "there can hardly be new variants"...Delta  keeps "surprising" us with a lot of (AY.) sub-variants...

"Good news" in statistics (for now) may come from Israel cases -36%, deaths -25%. Last week 19,958 cases, 130 deaths - this week 12,706 cases and 97 deaths...booster vaccines do work-may work better in combination with more restrictions..

China seems to get the numbers under control-still 0 deaths (????) cases -28%, last week 204, this week 147 cases reported...China is large enough to "create its own bubble" with strict border controls...but still may see some cases showing up imported or asymptomatic spread...China is "Zero-Covid" leader...

-Flutrackers ;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/925453-specific-treatment-exists-for-sars-cov-2-ards[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/925453-specific-treatment-exists-for-sars-cov-2-ards ; Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), seems to be difficult to overcome. 

A pandemic of such a scale has not been seen since the 1918 influenza pandemic.

 Although the predominant clinical presentation is respiratory disease, neurological manifestations and sequelae are increasingly being recognized. We observed a case series of rapid recovery of ARDS within 24 h in the preliminary clinical features of COVID-19 ARDS-associated neurological disease.

 It was also noted that by 15 April, 2021, there was no SARS-CoV-2 ARDS on Sorok Island in South Korea, where lepers had been living together. We compared each of dapsone’s effects on humans and considered those of SARS-CoV-2. 

Dapsone showed different effects in the brain. The Sorokdo National Hospital reported a relationship between dapsone and the neuroinflammasome of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) in Sorok Island from January 2005 to June 2020. 

AD prevalence was low in the leprosy patient group who took dapsone regularly. 

The preliminary cross-sectional study of the trial group (22 subjects) and the control group (22 subjects) in the Hunt Regional Hospital reported the following results: The chi-square statistic is 5.1836. The p-value is 0.022801.

 The result is considered significant at p < 0.05. The results from the medical treatment from 21 December to 29 December 2020 were considered. The mortality rates at the ARDS onset stage were 0% with dapsone administered as a standard COVID-19 treatment and 40% without dapsone administered as a standard COVID-19 treatment, respectively. 

Based on the respiratory failure and sudden high death rate originating from the involvement of the brainstem, especially the pre-Bötzinger complex, dapsone can be used to significantly reduce the incidence of the cases of acute respiratory distress syndrome and other illnesses caused by SARS-CoV-2. View Full-Text

DJ The title may not fully cover the story however some anti-inflammatory drugs used for treatment of other diseases do "seem to indicate some effectiveness" against "some aspects" of Covid-19...There is a lot of study going on-worldwide-to see how some known drugs may offer perspectives against CoViD..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925451-delta-variant-b-1-617-2-sublineages-do-not-show-increased-neutralization-resistance[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925451-delta-variant-b-1-617-2-sublineages-do-not-show-increased-neutralization-resistance ; Our results reveal no appreciable differences between host cell entry and neutralization sensitivity of the Delta variant and its sublineages, with the notable exception of the Delta Plus variant being resistant to both bamlanivimab and etesevimab, which are used in cocktails for COVID-19 treatment. Although T-cell responses were not analyzed in the present study and confirmation of the data using authentic virus and primary cells is pending, our results suggest that neither the Delta Plus nor the Delta-V variant is associated with an increased threat to convalescent or BNT162b2/Comirnaty vaccinated patients compared to the founder virus. Finally, it is noteworthy that heterologous ChAdOx1 nCov-19/BNT162b2 vaccination might provide particularly robust protection against these viruses [12].

DJ Of course such "good findings" have to translate in statistics going down...Otherwise "the words become empty"...it is the results that count !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925449-china-new-local-covid-19-case-in-erlianhot-city-inner-mongolia-october-14-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925449-china-new-local-covid-19-case-in-erlianhot-city-inner-mongolia-october-14-2021From 7:00 on October 13th to 7:00 on October 14, Inner Mongolia added a new local confirmed case, which was a closed-loop manager of Huitong Logistics Park in Erlianhot City. On October 12, Erenhot City conducted a routine nucleic acid test on the closed-loop management personnel of Huitong Logistics Park every other day and found that a group of tests were positive. On October 13, all 32 closed-loop management personnel of Huitong Park were tested for nucleic acid, and 1 of them was found to be positive. The remaining 31 people were negative. On the afternoon of October 13th, the Xilinguole League Center for Disease Control re-judged and the result was positive. After consultation with the Inner Mongolia Medical Treatment Expert Group, it was diagnosed as a confirmed case of new coronary pneumonia. At present, the epidemiological investigation and environmental disinfection of the patient are in progress. (Headquarters reporter Liu Xiaobo Baoyin)

DJ China has active cross border trade with its neighbour countries-even with North Korea...allthough that may be very limited at present. Part of China's long term plan is increasing export, foreign trade. This means it can not totally close its borders...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/925447-leprosy-identified-in-wild-chimpanzees-for-the-first-time[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/925447-leprosy-identified-in-wild-chimpanzees-for-the-first-timeA team of researchers recently found leprosy-infected chimps in unconnected populations in two West African countries: Guinea-Bissau and the Ivory Coast. Facial lesions in several of the animals looked like those in humans with advanced leprosy; genetic analysis of the chimps' stool samples confirmed that animals in both groups were carrying Mycobacterium leprae, bacteria that causes the disfiguring disease, according to a new study.

Not only are these cases the first to be detected in wild chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes verus) — leprosy in captive chimps has been reported previously — they are the first known non-human cases of leprosy in Africa...

DJ Spread from humans to chimpanzees-hope they can get the outbreak under control...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925420-russia-media-excess-total-death-toll-stands-at-660-000-since-beginning-of-covid-19-pandemic-october-8-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925420-russia-media-excess-total-death-toll-stands-at-660-000-since-beginning-of-covid-19-pandemic-october-8-2021 ; The figures revealed that August 2021 was one of the most deadly months since the beginning of the pandemic in Russia, with the country seeing a 45% increase in deaths from all causes compared to the same month in 2019.

Russia’s total excess death toll since the beginning of the pandemic until the end of August, the most recent available data , stands at 660,000 — one of the highest rates in the world both in absolute terms and on a per capita basis.

more...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/...ts-660k-a75254

https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/media...08_2021(2).htm

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Russia's totals are just awful, record deaths and no sign of improvement.
Something is going seriously awry in their health care system, because their experience is so much worse than anyone else's. Russia needs help, right now.
I cannot believe that the new cold war is so intense that we cannot cooperate on fighting a global health menace.

DJ In official statistics Russia has 219,329 CoViD deaths...(people dying after positive tests within 28 days is the definition...). NL has 18,227 official CoViD deaths-but a more realistic number-including those who died in care centers goes 33,000+ there is a lot of under-reporting of cases and deaths. The real number of deaths in this pandemic-a low estimate 12 million+, lots go 20 million+ some even now believe 30 million+...

Statistics may give some hints...India claims "only 323 deaths per million"-global average is at 627,3...Brazil dpm=2,805, US 2,218, UK 2,020...Given India has a population of almost 1,4 billion 2,000 deaths per million =1,400X2,000=2,8 million...in stead of "just"over 450,000...the real number for India must be over 3 million, maybe even 4 million+...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925440-cidrap-most-covid-19-survivors-have-symptoms-6-months-on-review-finds[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925440-cidrap-most-covid-19-survivors-have-symptoms-6-months-on-review-finds ; At 1 month (short term), a median of 54% of patients (13 studies) reported at least one long COVID-19 symptom, as did 55% (38) at 2 to 5 months (intermediate term), and 54% (9) at 6 months or more (long term).
The most common symptoms of mental, lung, and neurologic disorders; functional mobility problems; and general and constitutional issues were abnormalities on chest imaging (median, 62.2%; 4 studies), trouble concentrating (23.8%; 4), generalized anxiety disorder (29.6%; 7), general functional impairments (44.0%; 9), and fatigue or muscle weakness (37.5%; 30).
In addition to difficulty concentrating, neurocognitive symptoms included memory problems (median, 18.6%; 4 studies), cognitive impairment (17.1%; 7), loss of taste (11.2%; 18), and loss of smell (13.4%; 24).
Mental illness, in addition to generalized anxiety disorder, included sleep disorders (median, 27.0%; 10 studies), depression (20.4%; 2), and posttraumatic stress disorder (13.3%; 9). Lung symptoms included shortness of breath (median, 29.7%; 38 studies) and cough (13.1%; 26). Nearly two thirds (median, 65.0%; 3 studies) needed extra oxygen. Among functional mobility impairments, mobility decline was reported by a median of 20.2% (6 studies) and lower exercise tolerance by a median of 14.7% (2).
The most common general and constitutional symptoms included joint pain (median, 10.0%; 11 studies) and flu-like symptoms (10.3%; 6). Other such symptoms included general pain (median, 32.4%; 8 studies), fever (0.9%; 16), and muscle pain (12.7%; 13). Cardiac symptoms included chest pain (median, 13.3%; 14 studies) and palpitations (9.3%; 5). Heart attack and heart failure were uncommon.
Gastrointestinal symptoms such as abdominal pain, decreased appetite, diarrhea, and vomiting occurred in 6% of COVID-19 survivors. Hair loss was reported by a median of 20.8% of patients (4 studies), as were skin rash (2.8%; 3) and sore throat (3.3%; 6).
Mean patient age was 54.4 years, 56% were male, and 79% were hospitalized during their initial illness. Forty-five studies (79%) came from high-income countries.

DJ Ignoring "long CoViD" or going for "psychosomatic non-sense (like in ME-CFS)" is not helping...Even worse-there could be some indications "some long CoViD patients" may be having a problem to get rid of the virus...Upper respitory PCR tests may miss virus doing damage in other places...(more samples-a.o. from stools, blood) may help. 

But "politics is not interested in such findings"...From the same link; Treatment of long COVID-19 symptoms, the authors said, requires a whole-patient perspective, including virtual rehabilitation platforms and long-term treatment of these symptoms as well as preexisting or new underlying conditions.
"One-stop multidisciplinary clinics are therefore recommended to avoid multiple referrals to different specialists and encourage comprehensive care," the researchers wrote.
"These specialists should include respiratory physicians, cardiologists, neurologists, general physicians (from primary care or rehabilitation medicine), neuropsychologists or neuropsychiatrists, physiotherapists, occupational therapists, speech and language therapists, and dieticians [sic]."

DJ There is simply not enough capacity to deal with the numbers of long-CoViD patients...Only the very worst cases may get some help...STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925438-cidrap-global-covid-decline-continues-except-in-europe[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925438-cidrap-global-covid-decline-continues-except-in-europe ; COVID-19 cases continue to fall in most world regions, continuing a pattern that started in August, but Europe reported a modest increase, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today in its weekly pandemic update.

Deaths trend downward; hot spots in flux

Africa and Western Pacific regions registered the steepest drops in cases. However, new COVID-19 illnesses in Europe were up 7% compared to the previous week. Nearly half of European countries reported rising cases last week, with the United Kingdom, Turkey, and Russia reporting the highest new-case totals.
Deaths also fell in most of the world's regions, though fatalities increased in Europe by 11% compared to the week before.
Europe and the Americas reported the highest weekly incidence for both cases and deaths. The five countries reporting the most cases include the United States, the United Kingdom, Turkey, Russia, and India.
No new countries reported the Delta (B1617.2) variant, keeping the total at 191.
Officials from the WHO's Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) said today at a briefing that though cases in the Americas last week saw an overall decline, they remain high in the US Midwest, Alaska, and northwest Canada. Elsewhere, cases stayed high in Belize and are rising in some Caribbean locations, especially Barbados.

DJ Looking at worldometer-trends Europe cases +14, deaths +13%...but Oceania also still cases going up +2% (Australia, New Zealand and Papua New Guinea all report increase of cases...). Other regions still report  cases -10%+ but the decrease may be slowing down...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925437-cidrap-covid-19-scan-hospital-acquired-covid-19-covid-vaccine-and-healthcare-workers[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925437-cidrap-covid-19-scan-hospital-acquired-covid-19-covid-vaccine-and-healthcare-workersWhile the absolute risk of acquiring COVID-19 in the hospital was low—up to 0.75% risk per day of exposure pre-Delta (B1617.2) variant—patients or healthcare workers (HCWs) with COVID-19 nonetheless can be factors in the spread of COVID-19, a study published yesterday in PLOS One says.
The researchers looked at four UK teaching hospitals, where 66,184 patients were hospitalized and 5,569 HCWs were on the job from Jan 12 to Oct 2, 2020. Of the patients, 1.4% had a positive test within the same period, and 10.5% of those (97) had their first positive test post-hospitalization at least 7 days after admission, wherein they were considered a nosocomial case. Patients who likely acquired COVID-19 infections while in the hospital were older, had longer lengths of stay, and had more readmission, the researchers note.
Among the HCWs, 11.0% were positive during the study period.

DJ Healthcare settings (from hospitals to testing sites) do see an increased risk for CoViD...Here in NL most of health care did stop masks...One has to question the wisdom of such choices...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925426-china-to-test-thousands-of-wuhan-blood-samples-in-covid-19-probe[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925426-china-to-test-thousands-of-wuhan-blood-samples-in-covid-19-probe ; China is preparing to test tens of thousands of blood bank samples from the city of Wuhan as part of a probe into the origins of Covid-19, according to a Chinese official. The move comes amid increasing calls for transparency over the emergence of the virus.

The store of up to 200,000 samples, including those from the closing months of 2019 were pinpointed in February this year by the World Health Organization's panel of investigators as a possible source of key information that could help determine when and where the virus first crossed into humans.

The samples are kept in the Wuhan Blood Center, and are thought to span 2019, providing real-time tissue samples from a wide swathe of the population in the Chinese city where SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have first infected humans.

The blood bank samples have been retained for two years, Chinese officials have said, in case they are needed as evidence in any lawsuits related to the blood donations they are from...

DJ China proberbly did a lot more study...did proberbly also publish also a lot in their own science media in Chinese...Western countries may learn much more if they did more with the info that is allready there. English is not the "official language in China"...expecting to find all studies translated into English is not realistic ! 

Apart from blood samples does China also have sewage samples that go back 2 a 3 years ? Testing of frozen goods/meat ? Samples taken from bats, pangolins etc from 2018 and 2019 ? (DJ-Does Laos have that kind of samples ? Not only for detection of Covid-19 but also to study other possible virusses ?)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925247-dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-robert-malone-interviewed-by-dr-philip-mcmillan-things-could-get-worse[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925247-dr-geert-vanden-bossche-and-dr-robert-malone-interviewed-by-dr-philip-mcmillan-things-could-get-worse latests; Dr. Malone has not responded. I would like to know his source for his comment about excess deaths in the vaccinated in the UK and Scotland. And what confounders is he making allowances for? 

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It would be interesting to find out the data source and how significant he thinks it is. I got the impression he was just aware of the data without drawing conclusions at this point. I found a blog by someone with a background in medical statistics that is looking at the overall death data in Scotland per age groups and vaccine status.

https://drowningindatadotblog.wordpr...s-in-scotland/
Linking excess deaths and SARS-CoV2 vaccinations in Scotland
Has there been any effect of the rollout of SaRS-CoV2 vaccinations on excess deaths in Scotland?

https://drowningindatadotblog.wordpr...d-26-may-2021/
Linking excess deaths and SARS-CoV-2 vaccinations in Scotland (26 May 2021)

DJ The overall picture I still have is most of severe cases/deaths by far (90%+) are in the unvaccinated...And some vaccinated cases in the most vulnarable groups should be expected...(I share the worry for "vaccine selection" resulting in vaccines stopping the "milder variants" so vaccinated hosts may spread (100% almost) more immunity evading variants...". But so far I also get the impression vaccines offer enough protection most of the time against severe disease...The "idea" that vaccine-selection-spread of immunity evading variants would result in "immunity resistent variants causing still severe disease" does not show up yet...But lack of testing/sequencing may miss them...also some variants may not be detected via upper respitory testing...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925428-covid-19%E2%80%99s-impact-on-overall-health-care-services-in-africa-undermining-years-of-progress-fighting-other-deadly-diseases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925428-covid-19%E2%80%99s-impact-on-overall-health-care-services-in-africa-undermining-years-of-progress-fighting-other-deadly-diseases ; In addition to directly causing the deaths of at least 200,000 people in Africa, the COVID-19 pandemic is also disrupting critical health services and undermining years of progress fighting other deadly diseases, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis (TB), and malaria, which continue to be the leading causes of death in the region. In order to better understand the extent of this impact, a
recent report by The Global Fund utilizes data from urban and rural health care facilities in 24 African countries and seven Asian nations to investigate and compare the spillover impacts of the pandemic on essential health care services for HIV, TB, and malaria.

In 2020, access to health care services declined significantly throughout the world compared to 2019. The authors attribute this unprecedented decline in patient attendance to challenges facing both medical facilities and the patient community (Figure 1). For patients, the fear of contracting COVID-19 from their visit was the most cited reason for not seeking medical care. The inability to reach health care facilities due to disruptions in public transportation and stay-at-home orders was also a prominent challenge for patients looking to access health care—a problem, according to the authors, that has been more relevant for urban residents...

DJ Most vaccines go to the richest countries. Those countries also now try to get HCW-ers from "countries kept poor"...Vaccinating against Polio etc. as good as stopped, it is "not an incident" both Ebola and the Plague is seen more frequently...Indirect consequences of this pandemic-a rise in other diseases-do worsen this pandemic. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925425-rising-covid-19-numbers-returning-to-pre-vaccine-levels-in-minnesota[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925425-rising-covid-19-numbers-returning-to-pre-vaccine-levels-in-minnesota ; Minnesota on Tuesday reported a COVID-19 test positivity rate of 8.3% that is the highest in the vaccine era and a level of hospitalizations that hasn't been seen since the first shots against the coronavirus were administered in mid-December.

COVID-19 hospitalizations in Minnesota reached 960 on Monday and included 254 people needing intensive care because of breathing problems or other complications. While that is below the record 1,864 hospitalizations on Nov. 29, it is the highest in 2021 and combines with patients with trauma and other illnesses to fill up 96% of available intensive care beds and 93% of non-ICU beds...

DJ Again global number of cases/deaths-while supposed to be "low" are still higher then we did see untill mid october 2020...In february an d june this year the average was lower for some days...but the trends are moving towards cases going up again on a background of allready very high numbers and lots of cases being missed...winter still has to show its effects..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/925424-us-to-reopen-land-borders-in-november-for-fully-vaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/925424-us-to-reopen-land-borders-in-november-for-fully-vaccinatedThe U.S. will reopen its land borders to nonessential travel next month, ending a 19-month freeze due to the COVID-19 pandemic as the country moves to require all international visitors to be vaccinated against the coronavirus.

Vehicle, rail and ferry travel between the U.S. and Canada and Mexico has been largely restricted to essential travel, such as trade, since the earliest days of the pandemic. The new rules, announced Wednesday, will allow fully vaccinated foreign nationals to enter the U.S. regardless of the reason for travel starting in early November, when a similar easing of restrictions is set to kick in for air travel into the country. By mid-January, even essential travelers seeking to enter the U.S., like truck drivers, will need to be fully vaccinated.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said he was “pleased to be taking steps to resume regular travel in a safe and sustainable manner” and lauded the economic benefits of it...

DJ-Do we never learn ? Variants travel for free !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/925472-open-forum-infect-dis-vitamin-k-d-deficiencies-are-independently-associated-with-covid-19-disease-severity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/925472-open-forum-infect-dis-vitamin-k-d-deficiencies-are-independently-associated-with-covid-19-disease-severityConclusions: Early in acute COVID-19, both vitamin K and vitamin D deficiency were independently associated with worse COVID-19 disease severity, suggesting a potential synergistic interplay between these 2 vitamins in COVID-19.

DJ, by now it is getting clear food-supplements (vitamins, zinc etc) can be a factor in reducing risks...It should be promoted much more !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925470-jacc-case-rep-giant-coronary-aneurysms-in-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-associated-with-sars-cov-2-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925470-jacc-case-rep-giant-coronary-aneurysms-in-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-associated-with-sars-cov-2-infectionMultisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) can cause a myriad of cardiac manifestations, including coronary dilation and aneurysms; giant aneurysms are infrequent. We describe 3patients with giant coronary aneurysms associated with MIS-C, including the youngest case reported to date, treated with intravenous immunoglobulin, corticosteroids, and biologic agents. (Level of Difficulty: Intermediate.).

DJ Article [url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666084921006823?via%3Dihub[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666084921006823?via%3Dihub including a 4 month old boy...MIS is not only a problem in children...

-Twitters

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator

A brilliant thread again & a warning from 

 that #Delta is not an evolutionary dead-end for #SARS2, as some hope, but a fresh start (on a higher level of transmissibility I would add) from where immunoevasive evolution will most likely continue.

and RBD mutations in B.1.351 are also showing up in some Delta variants, and more generally the virus will continue to evolve. As it does so, keep in mind that this evolution will shift which sites are immunodominant, and so which mutations have the largest antigenic effects. (11/n)

DJ These findings may not fit the "post-pandemic non-sense/wishfull thinking/summer-vaccines-?-will save us" lack of strategy...As GvdB/RM did discuss-Yes it is very likely worse variants (within Delta) have to be expected...From the same twitters; Another one of those things we learned early on about #SARS2 from the 1Q2020 Chinese studies but somehow decided to suppress & forget.

Small portion of COVID-19 patients infectious long-term https://news-medical.net/news/20211013/Small-portion-of-COVID-19-patients-infectious-long-term.aspx #Allergy #Coronavirus #Pandemic #SARSCoV2 #Virus #COVID @AllergyEaaci @PEI_Germany

DJ It is much easier to go for a blame-game then to look at Chinese info that is available (for over a year-but not in English...)...Certainly when that news may point towards long lasting infection and virus-spread...

Based on Israel's 9 months of data, breakthrough infections have severe/fatal outcomes decreased by 3/4 to 2/3. Even if everyone gets vaccinated there would still be 30% of current deaths, or 120-135k in the US (from 400-450k). But, not everyone is vaccinated so I would say 200k.

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Sahin: "We need to be prepared for unexpected evolution, we can't rule it out & therefore 1 way to deal with that is to continue to research all new coming variants & understand if simply neutralizing the Spike protein is SUFFICIENT to PREVENT INFECTION."

Dr. Ugur Sahin has a warning for what may be to come in the battle against the Covid-19 virus. "The virus is starting to escape immune responses," he says. "So we need to be prepared for also unexpected evolution."

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Back in January, I was nagging all around why is our Western approach only targeting the Spike protein, while the Chinese are pushing seemingly weaker but broader inactivated vaccines. I said it's a new space race & in a decade we'll see who was right.

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But, the most worrying thing I discover talking with my (former?) friends is that people don't care there were 10% excess deaths in 2020. They wouldn't care if in 2021 there is again 10% excess deaths. And they won't care if there is another 3%, 10% or 30% excess deaths in 2022.

DJ-Just like the Russian-very basic space program in many ways did beat US high tech space-tech China may fall back on a more basic, simple strategy on the long term proving to be more effective...

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 (and others) ;

Thank you, @PennyDaflos, for this excellent piece of reporting. The failure to fully admit and act on airborne spread is killing our citizens and overwhelming our hospitals. An accounting of the nature of the ongoing obstruction is necessary for us to move forward.

Covid-19 is airborne...virusparticles may hang in the air for maybe over 1 hour-still infecting people if ventilation is not done good enough !

[url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/ ;

We do not want a 5th VOC. We need to contain the virus globally.

There have been over 4 million #SARSCoV2 genomes sequenced. And there have only been 4 variants of concern (VoC), culminating with Delta. A 5th VoC that would compete with Delta is something we do not want to see: the need to contain the virus globally.

DJ-Is Delta becoming a Variant of High Consequence or will we see a fifth VOC with a R0 higher then that from Delta ? Or even see SARS-3 jumping from bats-via other hosts-into humans ? 

We fail to do enough to stop this pandemic ! "Politics" is blinded for the very major risks...

-Music; David Bowie - Space Oddity - 1969 video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D67kmFzSh_o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D67kmFzSh_o 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 14 2021 at 9:57pm

HoneyBee08, I believe in preventative healthcare. Action to avoid people developing illnesses...This also includes "boosting immunity" but also vaccinations when it is believed to be wise (and with good info on a voluntary basis). 

There may be ways to use supplements/vitamins to create better immunity in the population so pandemics have less chance. The sooner, better, a "host" can get rid of the infection the less spread there will be. 

One of the basics I am missing a lot in discussion on (this) pandemic(s) is how to (re)organize society to minimize risks. 

The basics for dealing with both climate "change" and pandemics have a lot in common. Clean air, enviroment, better food, better basic healthcare, education, housing...The idea of a "market economy" based on neo-liberal-conservative dogma's stand in the way of creating this "better world"...

Maybe as a background [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kse5uZyS_aw&t=3s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kse5uZyS_aw&t=3s Alexander Mercouris on "East-West relations". Deadlock in Moscow; Ryabkov-Nuland talks fail, Russia talks of "degrading" relations with the US. 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/thoughts-on-three-issues-putin-on-europes-gas-crisis-iran-talks-lebanon-shooting.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/thoughts-on-three-issues-putin-on-europes-gas-crisis-iran-talks-lebanon-shooting.html 

The same neo-liberal conservatives failing to deal with this pandemic, climate collapse in international politics have a neo-colonial worldview...

DJ-of course I am expressing my opinion-the present situation reminds me of the fall of the Western Roman Empire some 1500 years ago...When you read the ideas Romans had the idea Roman rule could end was unthinkable for most...yet it did. 

In stead of communication a "western elite" keeps pushing for confrontation with RIC (Russia, Iran, China) even when they know confrontation only makes matters worse...

The idea of "western superiority" -without selfreflection-is still dominant. It is also very destructive...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ "living with climate collapse, pandemics" resulting in another 89,680 new US cases, 1,654 deaths...UK 45,066 new cases, 157 deaths..Russia 31,299 new cases, 986 deaths...

Worldwide numbers 442,003 new cases reported (maybe the same number unreported ? No/mild symptoms, vaccinated people "sitting an infection out"...) and 7,421 deaths...This year may see 4 million CoViD deaths being reported ? Last year around 2 million ?

What does "living with the virus"mean ? Four times the number of flu-deaths ? Eight times that number ? Pandemic bringing increase of other diseases since it in itself is part of a bigger problem ? 

Maybe the major problem is a total lack of respect for the planet we live on, a lack of respect for life itself...Like everything else there is a price for that...

Trends global cases -4%, deaths -6% we will see increase of global cases before the end of this month...

US cases -12%, UK/Russia cases +14%,  Germany +31%, NL +62%....(NL deaths +27%)...

Most (western) countries start acting when hospitals reach breaking point...unable to learn. 

We have to rethink the way we live...both in the west and in Russia, China...because we can not survive the way we live now !

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925535-cidrap-global-tb-deaths-rise-for-first-time-in-more-than-a-decade[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925535-cidrap-global-tb-deaths-rise-for-first-time-in-more-than-a-decade ; In a new report that confirms what many experts have feared, the World Health Organization (WHO) revealed today that the COVID-19 pandemic has reversed years of progress against tuberculosis (TB).
According to the WHO Global TB Report 2021, which includes data from more than 200 countries, approximately 1.5 million people died from TB in 2020, up from 1.4 million in 2019. It's the first increase in global TB deaths in more than a decade, the WHO said.
In addition, the number of people newly diagnosed as having TB and reported to national governments fell from 7.1 million in 2019 to 5.8 million in 2020.
Worldwide, the WHO estimates that 9.9 million people fell ill with TB last year, but 4.1 million of those infected were not diagnosed or reported to national authorities. That's up from 2.9 million in 2019.
The WHO attributes the increase in deaths and decline in diagnoses and notifications to the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting lockdowns, which have reduced countries' capacity to provide TB services and interfered with people's ability to get diagnosed and treated. Many countries have had to shift resources ordinarily used for TB treatment and diagnosis to the COVID-19 response.
"This preventable and curable disease places an enormous human and societal toll on those affected, their families, and their communities," WHO's Global TB Programme Director Tereza Kasaeva, MD, PhD, said at a press briefing. "Countries need to put in place urgent measures to restore access to essential TB services."

Drug-resistant TB a 'public health crisis'

The report shows that the biggest contributors to the decrease in TB notifications in 2020 were India (a 41% decline in notifications), Indonesia (14%), the Philippines (12%), and China (8%)—the countries that also have the highest incidence of TB. These and 12 other nations accounted for 93% of the global drop in TB notifications.
Preventive treatment for TB also declined. The 2.8 million people who were able to receive preventive treatment in 2021 represented a 21% decline from 2019. And while the incidence of multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant remained stable, fewer people with drug-resistant TB were able to get treatment in 2020.
"Drug-resistant tuberculosis remains a public health crisis," Kasaeva said. "The number of people treated for drug-resistant TB fell by 15%, from 177,000 to 150,000 in 2020, equivalent to only about 1 in 3 of those in need accessing life-saving treatment."
The WHO estimates that with the COVID-19 pandemic likely to have a significant impact on much of the world for the foreseeable future, and continue disrupting other health services, TB incidence and mortality could be even higher in the coming years.

DJ Healthcare capacity is eroding under pandemic pressure while healthcare demand is increasing...I think one of the major risks in the coming months may be other diseases getting out of control (flu-types ?) because of the CoViD-pandemic burden. We should be increasing healthcare capacity (for lots of reasons a.o. aging) but we are not doing that...(rather spent even more on wars/confrontation...). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925534-cidrap-commentary-what-can-masks-do-part-1-the-science-behind-covid-19-protection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925534-cidrap-commentary-what-can-masks-do-part-1-the-science-behind-covid-19-protectionEditor's Note: Part 1 of a two-part commentary explains the differences in cloth face coverings and surgical masks, the science of respiratory protection, and the hierarchy of disease controls. Part 2, to be published tomorrow, will outline what makes a good mask study and why so many fail.

DJ Masks are part of a bigger strategy, also including avoiding crowds, social distance...most masks offer "limited protection" but if someone has a better idea-welcome !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925533-cidrap-study-home-monoclonal-antibody-program-averted-covid-hospital-care[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925533-cidrap-study-home-monoclonal-antibody-program-averted-covid-hospital-care ; research letter today in JAMA Network Open describes how nurses in Michigan may have reduced emergency department visits and hospitalizations of high-risk COVID-19 patients by coordinating at-home administration of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies (MABs) during the spring 2021 surge.
From February to May 2021, three nurses at St. Joseph Mercy Health System in Ann Arbor reviewed new positive COVID-19 test results and provider referrals from the system's hospitals to determine if patients were eligible for MAB administration under the Food and Drug Administration emergency use authorization (EUA).

-

During a 14-day follow-up, 8 of 144 infused patients (5.6%) were hospitalized for an average of 3.3 days after their symptoms worsened. One patient (0.7%) was hospitalized after a hypersensitivity reaction, and 2 (1.4%) visited an ED for the same indication. None of the patients required intubation, and all were released from the hospital.

DJ Early detection & early treatment can limit suffering and healthcare crash...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925530-cidrap-covid-19-scan-covid-infectiousness-in-kids-covid-19-experts-harassed-obesity-and-covid-19-severity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925530-cidrap-covid-19-scan-covid-infectiousness-in-kids-covid-19-experts-harassed-obesity-and-covid-19-severity ; Kids may serve as COVID-19 reservoirs for variants, study says

Using COVID-19 viral load and viral cultures from 110 children, researchers suggest that children may serve as reservoirs for COVID-19, furthering transmission and viral evolution.
The researchers created a prospective cohort of patients 21 years or younger who sought care at Massachusetts General Hospital or its urgent care clinics between April 2020 and 2021 (median age, 10 years). About 56% were boys, and 38% were Hispanic. Thirty-six children (33%) required hospitalization, of whom 18 required supplemental oxygen or respiratory support of any kind.
Thirty patients (27.3%) were asymptomatic, and they were more likely to be younger than those with mild disease. Those who were hospitalized with low oxygen levels were significantly older than those in both groups.


Asymptomatic children and those with mild disease had significantly higher viral loads than adults hospitalized with COVID-19 with comparable symptom duration, according to the study. No viral load difference was seen with hospitalized pediatric COVID-19 patients and hospitalized adults of similar illness duration. Adult patient data was derived from the Massachusetts General Hospital COVID-19 Biorepository from April to August 2020.


Of 126 pediatric respiratory samples, the researchers cultured live virus from 33, including eight taken from asymptomatic children. Higher viral load was predictive of live virus shedding but similar to viral load observation, age was not associated with viral culture results.


"Our results suggest that the low rates of transmission in settings such as schools and daycares cannot be attributed to low viral loads, low rates of viral shedding, or rapid clearance of virus in younger patient populations," the researchers write, asking policy makers to consider how mitigation efforts for vaccinated adults may affect children. 

"Our results additionally suggest that pediatric populations have the potential to serve as a community reservoir of actively replicating virus, with implications for both new waves of infection and the evolution of viral variants."
The researchers note that SARS-CoV-2 lineages reflected those in the community of the time: 57 samples from 54 children showed four Alpha (B117) variants, three Iota (B1526.2) variants, and no Delta (B1617.2) variants.

Public-facing COVID experts receive harassment, death threats

In a Nature survey of 321 scientists who spoke out about COVID-19 to the media or on social media, about 42% said they had emotional or psychological distress afterward, 22% have received threats of physical or sexual violence, and 15% have received death threats.
The survey's results, which were included in a Nature news feature yesterday, also found that the more a scientist was attacked, the more they were likely to say their readiness to give future media interviews was affected.

Obesity linked to COVID-19 death, longer ICU stay

High body mass index (BMI) was independently associated with death and longer intensive care unit (ICU) stays for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, according to a study published yesterday in PLOS One.
The researchers looked at Sweden's nationwide ICU population from Mar 6 to Aug 30, 2020, and found 1,649 adults with COVID-19, of whom 78.3% were at least overweight (25 kilograms per square meter [kg/m2] or more). Besides having an overrepresentation of obese people compared with Sweden's general population (39% in the cohort), the study group also consisted of more men (74.4%). Mean age was 60.1 years.

DJ Children/schools play a bigger role in this pandemic then "politics" want to know. People openly giving their opinion and/or presenting science/studies now face a "new normal" of threats ? BMI linked to more severe illness is not new...but fits in a bigger picture of "living healthier"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925527-us-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B62-percent-of-police-deaths-last-year-were-covid-19-related-analysis-october-14-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925527-us-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B62-percent-of-police-deaths-last-year-were-covid-19-related-analysis-october-14-2021 ; COVID-19 accounted for more than 66 percent of all law enforcement deaths in the line of duty in 2020 and 2021, according to newly compiled statistics.

The report from the Officer Down Memorial Page found that more law enforcement officers died from COVID-19 than from every other cause combined since the pandemic began in early 2020.

In 2020, 245 officers died from Covid-19, more than from gunfire, automobile crashes and other illnesses.

more..

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...vid-19-related

DJ Does this high % have to do with limited vaccinations in the US police ? How do other countries score ? Maybe also what role does police play in this pandemic ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925508-f1000res-increase-of-sars-cov-2-rna-load-in-faecal-samples-prompts-for-rethinking-of-sars-cov-2-biology-and-covid-19-epidemiology[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925508-f1000res-increase-of-sars-cov-2-rna-load-in-faecal-samples-prompts-for-rethinking-of-sars-cov-2-biology-and-covid-19-epidemiology ;

Background;  Scientific evidence for the involvement of human microbiota in the development of COVID-19 disease has been reported recently. SARS-CoV-2 RNA presence in human faecal samples and SARS-CoV-2 activity in faeces from COVID-19 patients have been observed.

 Methods; Starting from these observations, an experimental design was developed to cultivate in vitro faecal microbiota from infected individuals, to monitor the presence of SARS-CoV-2, and to collect data on the relationship between faecal bacteria and the virus. 

Results; Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 replicates in vitro in bacterial growth medium, that the viral replication follows bacterial growth and it is influenced by the administration of specific antibiotics. SARS-CoV-2-related peptides have been detected in 30-day bacterial cultures and characterised. 

Discussion; Our observations are compatible with a 'bacteriophage-like' behaviour of SARS-CoV-2, which, to our knowledge has not been observed or described before. These results are unexpected and hint towards a novel hypothesis on the biology of SARS-CoV-2 and on the COVID-19 epidemiology. The discovery of possible new modes of action of SARS-CoV-2 has far-reaching implications for the prevention and the treatment of the disease.
DJ Do I get this correct ????? Does CoViD-19 virusses further develop in human/host feaces ? When looking for (creation of) new variants we have to look much more on sewage ? Use UV-C (etc.) to get rid of viral problems further escalating in feaces ???

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925507-sci-rep-a-proof-of-concept-study-for-the-differentiation-of-sars-cov-2-hcov-nl63-and-iav-h1n1-in-vitro-cultures-using-ion-mobility-spectrometry[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925507-sci-rep-a-proof-of-concept-study-for-the-differentiation-of-sars-cov-2-hcov-nl63-and-iav-h1n1-in-vitro-cultures-using-ion-mobility-spectrometry ; Abstract

Rapid, high-throughput diagnostic tests are essential to decelerate the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. While RT-PCR tests performed in centralized laboratories remain the gold standard, rapid point-of-care antigen tests might provide faster results. However, they are associated with markedly reduced sensitivity. Bedside breath gas analysis of volatile organic compounds detected by ion mobility spectrometry (IMS) may enable a quick and sensitive point-of-care testing alternative. In this proof-of-concept study, we investigated whether gas analysis by IMS can discriminate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from other respiratory viruses in an experimental set-up. 

Repeated gas analyses of air samples collected from the headspace of virus-infected in vitro cultures were performed for 5 days. A three-step decision tree using the intensities of four spectrometry peaks correlating to unidentified volatile organic compounds allowed the correct classification of SARS-CoV-2, human coronavirus-NL63, and influenza A virus H1N1 without misassignment when the calculation was performed with data 3 days post infection. 

The forward selection assignment model allowed the identification of SARS-CoV-2 with high sensitivity and specificity, with only one of 231 measurements (0.43%) being misclassified. Thus, volatile organic compound analysis by IMS allows highly accurate differentiation of SARS-CoV-2 from other respiratory viruses in an experimental set-up, supporting further research and evaluation in clinical studies.
DJ Faster testing for more diseases may translate to better use of care capacity...a severe cold does not need the same care as CoViD...(unless it goes to pneumonia etc...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925543-in-depth-can-a-simple-technique-during-covid-vaccination-stop-myocarditis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925543-in-depth-can-a-simple-technique-during-covid-vaccination-stop-myocarditisSome newly published research suggests the rare cases of heart inflammation linked to the COVID-19 vaccines might be caused by an accidental injection in the wrong spot.
All of the authorized vaccines are designed to be injected into a muscle, not a blood vessel.
Research published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases in August found mice injected with mRNA into a vein developed heart inflammation, called myopericarditis. Mice injected in the proper location, the muscle, did not...

DJ Vaccinations are not new !!! Risks of vaccinating in the wrong spots should be well known by now ! However the speed of vaccinations, and limiting stress/pain can lead to choices that may need reviewing...

-Dr. John Campbell also discussing that [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXcddiS32s0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MXcddiS32s0 after his video on "aspirating during vaccination" did get a label as "misleading" at a facebook post by Jimmy Dore...

DJ-I think there are lots of things in "discussion". A.o. Ivermectin...Claiming you can use Ivermectin and then not need a vaccine I do see as misleading. But claiming Ivermectin may help in limiting risks-as part of a discussion-I see as info...

Aspirating during vaccination was the way vaccinations were done for decades...for good reasons ! Calling info on risks fron not aspirating "misleading" in itself is "misleading"...

Yesterday Dr.J.C. had a video on "trust"...You can "trust" someone "with your eyes open" or "with closed eyes"...In this pandemic also lots of experts are still learning...most of them doing the best they can. If they are wise they did have to change their opinions several times...

A link to the Jimmy Dore Show [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw08zWJQ2m8&t=90s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nw08zWJQ2m8&t=90s with Jimmy Dore taking "short corners" ...(Yes Ivermectin is approved for treatment in humans, widely used...but it did not get approval for CoVid-treatment...I hope to avoid getting CoViD...I hope most of us can avoid getting it...).

So Yes there are risks for not aspirating but that does not mean hitting a bloodvessel means (always) inflamation of the hearthmuscle...and even if there is such inflamation "risks are supposed to be limited"...

Yes-there are studies on risks of not aspirating, but there are also studies on why not aspirating may result in less pain, and more vaccinations per hour...

Just like some studies claim Moderna offers best protection against Delta does not mean we have to stop using other vaccines aspirating or not both can be "the best of choices"...in mass vaccination worldwide there may be "good reasons" to go for high speed even if that brings some risks...slower vaccinations may bring larger risks...

Chinese vaccines may not be "the best" but they are often "the best" most countries can get...Poland sending 1 million doses of AstraZeneca to Zimbabwe is better then "storing it till it gets to old to use"...

This world is far from perfect-deal with that !

-Some twitters;

[url]https://twitter.com/wim_schellekens[/url] or https://twitter.com/wim_schellekens In Dutch-NL PM march 2020 speech on herd-immunity...in june 2020 this "PM" did forget that speech..."no active memory" ...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/14/dutch-coronavirus-policy-fell-seriously-short-kpmg[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/14/dutch-coronavirus-policy-fell-seriously-short-kpmg ;

The Netherlands' approach to dealing with the coronavirus crisis fell seriously short in various areas, consultancy firm KPMG concluded in a report that will be published later on Thursday, NRC reported. 

The Dutch Cabinet often intervened late because they made policies based on the number of people in hospital rather than infections, KPMG said, which means that some coronavirus deaths could have been prevented. 


Compared with Scandinavian countries like Norway, Finland, and Denmark, the Netherlands performed significantly more poorly in excess mortality and economic growth. The Netherlands had 24,000 more deaths than expected during the pandemic, while the Scandinavian countries recorded hardly any excess mortality. Denmark, Finland, and Norway quickly implemented strict measures like lockdown, quarantine, and border controls. And these measures resulted in the absence of economic damage, KPMG said. 

The consultancy firm also expressed surprise that the Netherlands ignored international advice from the World Health Organization, among others, on things like testing and mandatory face masks in public places. 


KPMG looked at the strategy followed by the Dutch government and its results between March 2020 and July 2021. Its research consisted of an extensive literature study of public sources and an analysis of data available worldwide. The Dutch Safety Board is also investigating the Dutch approach to the pandemic, with its first report expected early next year. A parliamentary inquiry will follow.

Earlier this week, two parliamentary committees in the United Kingdom concluded that the UK's approach to the coronavirus was "one of the greatest public health debacles" in British history.

DJ Another problem in NL was-compared to a.o. Germany-limited ICU-capacity. 

Again "claims" in 2019 US, UK, NL were "best prepared for a pandemic" by some studies turns out to not being able to face reality...

Also on NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/12/netherlands-needs-better-political-culture-council-europe-childcare-allowance-scandal[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/12/netherlands-needs-better-political-culture-council-europe-childcare-allowance-scandal indicating failure in this pandemic is part of a much larger problem...

DJ-Politics "as a career" may be a problem. Politicians may work for the interests of companies they hope will employ them later on...not in public interest but self-interest...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Wow, so now we already have B.1.617.2.4.2.1 & B.1.617.2.4.2.2. This thing is branching out with a remarkable speed.

Both of these sub-lineages of AY.4.2 have been proposed to as pango lineages and already been designated: - AY.4.2.1 has S:36F - AY.4.2.2 has S:1264L Whether or not they have grown due to chance effects or whether they have an additional advantage remains to be seen 

-

Well, Israel did it. They broke this wave with mass testing & boosting, together with masks indoor mandates & green passes but without closures of schools & businesses. It cost 1400 lives & who knows how many suffering from #LongCovid but they did it.

-

It was obvious that vaccination/ previous infection would only protect the vaccinated and the recovered (from severe disease). Notions of herd immunity by vaccinating the majority should have been discarded after our data on Delta. 


-

I look back and wonder why many countries did not learn from the Delta wave in India. Possibly they underestimated the Indian system or overestimated theirs. Else, our combined data was crystal clear https://science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abj9932 and provided molecular understanding.

KIDS #LongCovid is REAL—“15% of the children who come to us trained in various sports (for 3-4 hours a day, 6 days a week)—but after #COVID19 they **can’t even walk for 5 minutes**!” Do not listen to those who callously dismiss low death/hospital risk. https://haaretz.com/israel-news/the-new-frontier-israeli-hopsitals-contend-with-long-covid-in-children-1.10280661

DJ-I leave it here...lots of info on the internet...

Music-The Opera - Dizzy Mans Band 1975- Austria TV (NL-Rock group) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM10oMQyz-E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM10oMQyz-E 

work in progres

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 15 2021 at 10:05pm

HoneyBee08, I do not have a medical background..I think that healthcare education should get a much larger role in general education. Trying to stay as healthy as you can is each persons job in life...knowing how to do so could use better communication. 

For that matter Dr.John Campbell has been doing, is still doing, a very good job ! Others did pick up such a role a.o. on YouTube. Between very bad info there is also very good info (MedCrem, DrBeen etc.). 

For that matter this pandemic also may bring changes in the way we think. 

I do find it crazy cars have to get checked every year for road safety in NL-but the driver does not have to see a doctor all of his/her life if that is his/her choice...

I try to get my health checked every 2 a 3 years - but it is seen as "unusual" in NL. Does not even include a check on bloodpressure...etc. Just some blood samples and a talk with an assistent GP...

Early intervention in Parkinson, cancer, MS etc can limit damage and with that costs ! Because good healthcare will allways be expensive-so use the money wisely !

So to link this to the pandemic-countries that do have good basic healthcare may do much better in pandemics. But it is a complex mix also during such a pandemic...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ I think Israel does have very good basic healthcare (from its "socialist past" organized via trade unions). [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/ One could claim Israel did see four waves...reacted with restrictions/lockdowns and later on with (high speed) (booster) vaccinations...

Since the Israeli army also is organized it can pick up such a role that army did do a lot of vaccinations...

Israel is also interesting because of 1/3 of its population is under 18, orthodox religious groups may not always cooperate, Palestinian and foreign workers, the poor, some anti-vax groups all play a role...

The discussion and research on this pandemic is quite open (and a lot of it in English) with a limited (9,3 million) population and not to open borders...

When you look at the Israel-pandemic story one may think "we can vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic"...(with lots of other steps as well-not only vaccines !!!) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Israel[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Israel 

Israel trends cases -34% (last week 17,207-this week 11,436) deaths -55% (last week 145, this week 65) Israel has 855 deaths per million (based on relatively good testing/reporting. A lot of western Europe is at 1.000-1.200 dpm. Cuba is at 708 dpm. US/UK at 2,000+ dpm). See also; [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url]  or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; 

What caused Israel’s summer surge? Removing all restrictions (May) + Delta (June) + Waning immunity (gradual) + Slow, minimal NPIs (July) ~ What curbed the Delta surge? Mass booster campaign + Enhanced green passes + Mass testing

DJ I would translate the statistics into governments play a very major role in pandemics (and public healthcare). 

Global numbers for october 15;

Cases reported 437,842 (US numbers now under 100,000 at 92,966, UK 44,932 trend US -12%, UK +13%...UK/bojo is doing very bad !!! bodies are piling up ! ) Global cases trend -4%, I expect global cases to increase worldwide again later on this month. Yesterday 77 countries reported increase of cases...

Deaths reported 6,987 with US reporting 1,705, Russia 998, Brazil 526, Mexico 381, Romania 363...UK reported 145 deaths. Trends for number of people dying US -17%, Russia +8%, Brazil -30%, Mexico -32%, Romania +31%, UK +5%..

NL cases, by the way +51%, deaths +35% (and again "our" conservative government talking to much doing to little-like in a lot of countries.)

I (DJ) was hoping to see Australia (AU) and New Zealand (NZ) could keep Delta out-very sad to see trends;

cases AU +5%, deaths +6%...NZ cases +57% (last week 236, this week 370 on a population of just over 5 million). 

My idea on "goals" still stick to "Zero-CoViD"...because living with a corona-viral-disease like this one-SARS-2-is living with a worsening pandemic. I do see a lot of similarity with climate collapse...you can not live with that-you have to stop it !

Both with SARS-2 and climate collapse things go exponentialy wrong if you do not stop it. Both have a major human factor-so it is "our" role to stop it...And we simply keep failing to do so ! 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925648-uk-43-000-may-have-received-false-negative-covid-results[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925648-uk-43-000-may-have-received-false-negative-covid-resultsBritish health officials said Friday that 43,000 people may have been wrongly told they don’t have the coronavirus because of problems at a private laboratory.

The U.K. Health Security Agency said the Immensa Health Clinic Ltd. lab in the central England city of Wolverhampton has been suspended from processing swabs after the false negatives.

Will Welfare, the agency’s public health incident director, said it was working “to determine the laboratory technical issues” behind the inaccurate tests.

The issue was uncovered after some people who were positive for COVID-19 when they took rapid tests went on to show up as negative on more accurate PCR tests.

The health agency said that “around 400,000 samples have been processed through the lab, the vast majority of which will have been negative results, but an estimated 43,000 people may have been given incorrect negative PCR test results,” mostly in southwest England. The incorrect results were given between Sept. 8 and Oct. 12.

DJ There have been more reports on people testing positive in self-testing then testing negative in PCR testing...It may become a growing worry that tests may become increasingly not good enough...New tests are being developed/marketed that test for CoVid AND Flu...but those tests are more expensive...

Another worry is "Corona" passports (in NL after a negative test, natural infection last 6 months or vaccination) [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/14/health-ministry-wants-police-investigate-trade-counterfeit-coronacheck-qr-codes[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/14/health-ministry-wants-police-investigate-trade-counterfeit-coronacheck-qr-codes people share the QR code on smart phones....

DJ-I vote for an animal rights party here in NL - it is the only party that has 45% against and 45% pro vaccine passports....(with 10% undicided). Yes vaccine passports are better then nothing at all-NO social distance is much better then vaccine passports ! [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/15/dutch-coronavirus-average-tops-3000-virus-spreading-fast-early-july[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/15/dutch-coronavirus-average-tops-3000-virus-spreading-fast-early-july The NL R0 is 1,26 based on september 30 data...autumn just started, level of infections is still very high...new vaccinations are low, we may see booster vaccines on a limited scale here in NL....so the outlook is bad ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925647-proposal-for-ay-4-sublineage-with-s-145h-s-222v-mostly-uk-223[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925647-proposal-for-ay-4-sublineage-with-s-145h-s-222v-mostly-uk-223 ; Description
Sub-lineage of: AY.4
Earliest sequence: UK 2021-23
Most recent sequence: Current
Countries circulating: Mostly UK (now 5%), also Denmark at 1-2% and other European countries

Lineage deriving from AY.4 with extra Spike mutations S:Y145H and S:A222V. It has a pretty steady growth rate in the UK over the past weeks which could be indicative of a real fitness advantage as opposed to a chance event (founder effect).

If we want to cast the net wide, the first mutation in addition to AY.4 was T17040C (synonymous). But since it's synonymous, it probably doesn't makes more sense to make the 2 spike mutations defining.
...
https://github.com/cov-lineages/pang...ion/issues/223

-

Not looking good for the hope that delta + S:Y145H is just a founder effect or fluctuation, its prevalence continues to increase in the UK, now up to ~8%. Only a matter of time before this hits the US and rest of the globe

https://twitter.com/statesdj/status/1449105999198101510

DJ Flutrackers also falling back on twitter-news...indicating Main Stream Media is doing an even worse job in communication and information....One of the bad news-items is developments within the Delta variant itself....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants

As of August 2021, Delta have been subdivided in the Pango lineage designation system into variants from AY.1 to AY.38. However, there are no information on whether such classification correlate with biological characteristic changes of the virus.[42] It is said that, as of August 2021, AY.4 to AY.11 are predominant in the UK, AY.12 in Israel, AY.2, AY.3, AY.13, AY.14, AY.25 in the US, AY.20 in the US and Mexico, AY.15 in Canada, AY.16 in Kenya, AY.17 in Ireland and Northern Ireland, AY.19 in South Africa, AY.21 in Italy and Switzerland, AY.22 in Portugal, AY.24 in Indonesia, and AY.23 in Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.[43]

As of 30 August 2021, the AY.4 variant accounted for approximately 59% of cases in the United States.

On Delta variant-variants....DJ With also an increase of flu-cases, possible other Covid-19 variants increasing in some regions...and the finding of SARS-like virus in Laos-bats, an increased risk for SARS-3 the outlook is bad !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/925646-test-id-covng-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-sars-cov-2-lineage-clade-and-spike-gene-mutation-detection-next-generation-sequencing-varies-mayo-clinic-laboratories[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/925646-test-id-covng-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-sars-cov-2-lineage-clade-and-spike-gene-mutation-detection-next-generation-sequencing-varies-mayo-clinic-laboratoriesDistinguishing between persistent infection with the same viral strain and re-infection with a new viral strain in an individual with recurrent positive molecular test results for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)

Detection and identification of vaccine-escape SARS-CoV-2 variants with spike (S) gene variant of interest

Detection and identification of SARS-CoV-2 variants containing S gene variants of interest that reduce the efficacy of vaccine-induced antibodies, convalescent plasma, and/or monoclonal antibody therapy for COVID-19

Highlights

This test uses polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to amplify multiple severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic sequences covering 99.9% of the viral genome, followed by a next-generation sequencing assay with sequence analyses to determine the Pangolin lineage, Nextclade clade assignment, and alterations of the viral spike (S) protein-encoding codons in known SARS-CoV-2 RNA-positive respiratory tract specimens. Testing is more likely to be successful in positive specimens with PCR target cycle threshold (Ct) values of 30.0 or less, or transcription-mediated amplification generated relative light units (RLU) of 1200 or more.
...
https://www.mayocliniclabs.com/test-...pretive/614197

DJ As far as I understand developments-I do not have a medical background (and even if I had one-lots of experts may be getting lost in the info-is my impression) some "re-infections" may not be reinfections but a virus that a host can not get rid of....Another scenario is one virus in the upper respitory, (an)other one in the rest of the body...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Let's bust some myths Collectie 1. Herd immunity is coming soon This is Iran. There are 3 shades of green on this map. Starting at medium green, each person living in this province has been infected on average more than once. 

DJ Iran may be one of many countries where at least part of the population may have been infected two, maybe even three-more times...."Natural immunity" is wishfull thinking !!! Just like with corona-viral diseases in animals we see infections over and over again....STOP THE SPREAD !!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925643-rare-variant-detected-for-1st-time-in-louisiana[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925643-rare-variant-detected-for-1st-time-in-louisianaResearchers at LSU Health in Shreveport, La., detected B.1.630 — a rare COVID-19 variant — in two samples from Baton Rouge last week, the academic medical center announced Oct. 13.

It's the first time the B.1.630 variant has been detected in Louisiana. It was first detected in the U.S. in March and contains the E484Q mutation, which may help the virus escape the immune response and resist antibodies.

So far, the variant has only been sequenced 79 times in the U.S., according to a news release. It has not been assigned a variant classification or Greek alphabet letter, such as the delta or alpha strains, because it accounts for a very small portion of samples sequenced.

"Even though the predominance of this variant is low, we will continue to keep an eye on it and watch for any changes or if it starts to increase," said Krista Queen, PhD, director of viral genomics and surveillance at LSU Health's Center of Excellence for Emerging Viral Threats.
...
https://www.beckershospitalreview.co...louisiana.html

DJ The only country "going wild" on massive testing sometimes millions per hour is China !!! My impression is we need to increase testing maybe up to 100 times we are doing now in lots of countries...We need to increase screening/sequencing (capacity) up to 100 times...This pandemic is political because politics keeps downplaying the risks...

Both climate collapse and this pandemic are very major risks-possibly both may "end humans"...but politics look the other way as if they can not see the risks involved...

It is like a tsunami warning system warning for waves up to several meters but unable to catch a 100 meter high water-wall...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925635-cidrap-understaffed-underfunded-under-siege-us-public-health-amid-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925635-cidrap-understaffed-underfunded-under-siege-us-public-health-amid-covid-19 ; COVID-19 placed an unsustainable burden on already-overwhelmed public health workers, Horney said. By December 2020, 20 states had lost their state public health official, and 37 city and county health officials had left their posts. The public health workforce has declined by 20% since 2008, the authors noted, with 62% of local health departments reporting flat or reduced budgets.
That, along with public criticism and distrust, threats (see yesterday's CIDRAP News scan), COVID-19 patient surges and deaths, and a lack of resources such as effective personal protective equipment, have led to firings, resignations, and early retirements.
"The people with experience—the people who worked through H1N1 [flu] or Zika or Ebola—they are leaving public health or retiring," she said. "Unfortunately, the public health workers who are the most experienced are also the ones who are the most burned out."
While the public health disruptions caused by the pandemic will continue to affect the provision of services for years to come, action can be taken now to mitigate these effects and prepare the workforce for the future, the authors said.
"These findings highlight opportunities for funding and professional development of public health systems, both during and after the COVID-19 response, to help ensure the continuity of essential public health services, staffing sustainability, and preparedness for future public health emergencies in the U.S.," they wrote. "Qualitative investigations of future impacts, with a focus on potential inequities among workforce subgroups, are needed."
DJ Politics destroyed public healthcare. 

Politics keep failing to understand the risks. With the present number of testing/sequencing we have NO chance of getting out of this worsening pandemic ! 

It reminds me of the Polish army in 1939 sending military on horses to fight German tanks...The UK, NL had some (early) studies on government failures during the start of the pandemic...A more realistic picture would be even far worse...

We keep underestimating the risks, underreporting cases and deaths...comparing it with a FLU-pandemic from 1918-19 while a corona-virus is a different story...Politics are based on wishfull thinking and a show...they do not have any idea on what they are doing...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925633-cidrap-white-house-lifts-covid-19-ban-for-air-travelers[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925633-cidrap-white-house-lifts-covid-19-ban-for-air-travelersToday, the White House announced that fully vaccinated foreign nationals can travel freely in and out of the United States beginning Nov 8.
Foreign air travelers entering the United States will need to prove vaccination and have a negative COVID-19 test before boarding a flight to the country, the Washington Post reports. Foreign travelers entering through land borders need only proof of vaccination.
The existing travel bans have been in place since March 2020, when President Donald Trump's administration barred most non-US citizens from the United Kingdom, Europe, Brazil, and South Africa, from entering the country.
Airline and tourism executives applauded the decision to lift the ban.
"We welcome the Biden administration’s science-based approach to begin lifting the restrictions on travel to the U.S. that were put into place at the start of the pandemic," American's CEO Doug Parker said in a statement.

DJ We KNOW !!!! vaccines do not stop enough catching the virus !!!! We KNOW !!!!! test may be missing infections are increasing !!!! We KNOW the virus may be NOT in the upper respitory system where we do the testing...still "we" keep ignoring it...

This pandemic was brought to you by air lines...virusses travel for free !!!

KiwiMum; "Can't fix stupid" turns out to be an awfull truth...."stupid will kill us all" is next...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925632-cidrap-covid-19-scan-vaccine-effectiveness-vs-delta-impact-of-sars-cov-2-delta-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925632-cidrap-covid-19-scan-vaccine-effectiveness-vs-delta-impact-of-sars-cov-2-delta-variant ; A 17-study literature review looking at vaccine effectiveness (VE) during the Delta (B1617.2) variant shows a pooled VE of 90.9% versus hospitalization with a 75.7% and 63.1% VE against symptomatic and asymptomatic infection, respectively.
The results, published yesterday in Eurosurveillance, were based on studies collected until Aug 25.

DJ Retrospective studies are "nice" but when driving a car you have to look in front of you !!! There are increasing indications variants may be getting ways to evade vaccine immunity !!!! From the same link; Delta outbreak in Delhi shows immunity evasion, high transmission

Delhi's COVID-19 outbreak this past spring—the city's fourth since the pandemic began—showed the Delta variant's high transmissibility and higher ability to infect the previously infected, researchers say in a study published yesterday in Science.
The researchers used genomic and epidemiological data taken from Delhi from November 2020 to June 2021. During the 2020 outbreaks, they found that there were no variants of concern, and the Alpha variant was seen occasionally and usually in foreign travelers until January 2021. In March 2021, the Alpha variant surged to comprise about 40% of the cases, but Delta rapidly displaced its dominance in April. A Bayesian model indicated that the Delta variant was 30% to 70% more transmissible than the other COVID-19 lineages seen in Delhi thus far. And, importantly, prior COVID-19 infection provided 50% to 90% of protection against Delta compared with previous lineages.
To see how well the mathematical model held up against reality, the researchers then looked at a cohort recruited by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research, India, which ranged from 832 to 1,012 people across three time periods. From February to July, the unvaccinated people who were positive for antibodies against COVID-19 went from 42% to 87.5%. Among 91 people who had COVID-19 before the Delta outbreak, 27.5% had increased levels of antibodies, indicating reinfection. Also, regarding breakthrough infections, a single center showed that of 24 cases, Delta was seven times more likely to be the cause.


"The concept of herd immunity is critical in ending outbreaks, but the situation in Delhi shows that infection with previous coronavirus variants will be insufficient for reaching herd immunity against Delta," said co-author Ravi Gupta, PhD, MPH, BMBCh, in a University of Cambridge press release. "The only way of ending or preventing outbreaks of Delta is either by infection with this variant or by using vaccine boosters that raise antibody levels high enough to overcome Delta’s ability to evade neutralisation."
Oct 14 Science study
Oct 14 University of Cambridge press release

DJ So Brazil did show natural immunity is not effective, Iran is showing it, India is showing it...but "herd immunity"still may the basic-failing-strategy...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness/925624-eurosurv-preparing-for-an-influenza-season-2021-22-with-a-likely-co-circulation-of-influenza-virus-and-sars-cov-2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness/925624-eurosurv-preparing-for-an-influenza-season-2021-22-with-a-likely-co-circulation-of-influenza-virus-and-sars-cov-2 ; Although influenza activity was historically low during the 2020/21 influenza season, we could experience an influenza activity surge this coming season with relaxed COVID-19 mitigation strategies, increased travel and the reopening of schools and businesses. Influenza vaccination remains the best available preventive measure against influenza particularly in groups recommended vaccination. Even in cases when influenza vaccination does not completely prevent infection, studies have shown [20] it can reduce the duration and severity of illness and help prevent serious complications, including hospitalisation and death. Vaccination is going to be especially important in the 2021/22 season if influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses would co-circulate. In this possible scenario, influenza vaccination and the strengthening of an integrated surveillance of influenza viruses and SARS-CoV-2 are critical elements in preparing for a possible resurgence of influenza in the 2021/22 season.

DJ Can a person with CoViD get the flu ? Can a person with the flu catch CoViD ? Of course they can ! Even more likely with less defenses...

Let me also include good news ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/925621-a-selective-antibiotic-for-lyme-disease[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-scientific-studies-including-seasonal-novel-flu/925621-a-selective-antibiotic-for-lyme-diseaseSummary
Lyme disease is on the rise. Caused by a spirochete Borreliella burgdorferi, it affects an estimated 500,000 people in the United States alone. The antibiotics currently used to treat Lyme disease are broad spectrum, damage the microbiome, and select for resistance in non-target bacteria. We therefore sought to identify a compound acting selectively against B. burgdorferi. A screen of soil micro-organisms revealed a compound highly selective against spirochetes, including B. burgdorferi. Unexpectedly, this compound was determined to be hygromycin A, a known antimicrobial produced by Streptomyces hygroscopicus. Hygromycin A targets the ribosomes and is taken up by B. burgdorferi, explaining its selectivity. Hygromycin A cleared the B. burgdorferi infection in mice, including animals that ingested the compound in a bait, and was less disruptive to the fecal microbiome than clinically relevant antibiotics. This selective antibiotic holds the promise of providing a better therapeutic for Lyme disease and eradicating it in the environment...

DJ Parts of the problem with lyme-disease is testing for it. We may miss a lot of cases because the test are very far from perfect (as far as I know...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyme_disease#Diagnosis[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyme_disease#Diagnosis 

We are in a pandemic of "unclear health issues" ME-CFS, Fibrimyalgia and lots of cases of chronic Q-fever, Lyme-disease, possibly even Legionella hard to detect in many cases, often with very long term healthproblems...Long Covid comes on top of that...Often some aspects of those diseases can be treated, many others can not...

Politics caring more about the costs then the people often falls back on claiming the tens of millions of people suffering from these long term health issues are "mental cases" even when there is growing evidence for post-viral origins...(Here in NL it most likely will become just a next political scandal...on top of many others. Many other countries do not do that much better...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925672-nat-med-effect-of-delta-variant-on-viral-burden-and-vaccine-effectiveness-against-new-sars-cov-2-infections-in-the-uk[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925672-nat-med-effect-of-delta-variant-on-viral-burden-and-vaccine-effectiveness-against-new-sars-cov-2-infections-in-the-ukWith B.1.617.2, infections occurring after two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden as those in unvaccinated individuals. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination still reduces new infections, but effectiveness and attenuation of peak viral burden are reduced with B.1.617.2.

DJ It is an ongoing proces...new Delta sub-variants seem to be increasing-even with a high level of vaccinations !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925671-front-immunol-mhc-variants-associated-with-symptomatic-versus-asymptomatic-sars-cov-2-infection-in-highly-exposed-individuals[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925671-front-immunol-mhc-variants-associated-with-symptomatic-versus-asymptomatic-sars-cov-2-infection-in-highly-exposed-individuals ; Abstract

Despite the high number of individuals infected by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) who develop coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms worldwide, many exposed individuals remain asymptomatic and/or uninfected and seronegative. This could be explained by a combination of environmental (exposure), immunological (previous infection), epigenetic, and genetic factors. 

Aiming to identify genetic factors involved in immune response in symptomatic COVID-19 as compared to asymptomatic exposed individuals, we analyzed 83 Brazilian couples where one individual was infected and symptomatic while the partner remained asymptomatic and serum-negative for at least 6 months despite sharing the same bedroom during the infection. We refer to these as "discordant couples". 

We performed whole-exome sequencing followed by a state-of-the-art method to call genotypes and haplotypes across the highly polymorphic major histocompatibility complex (MHC) region. 

The discordant partners had comparable ages and genetic ancestry, but women were overrepresented (65%) in the asymptomatic group.

 In the antigen-presentation pathway, we observed an association between HLA-DRB1 alleles encoding Lys at residue 71 (mostly DRB1*03:01 and DRB1*04:01) and DOB*01:02 with symptomatic infections and HLA-A alleles encoding 144Q/151R with asymptomatic seronegative women. Among the genes related to immune modulation, we detected variants in MICA and MICB associated with symptomatic infections. 

These variants are related to higher expression of soluble MICA and low expression of MICB. Thus, quantitative differences in these molecules that modulate natural killer (NK) activity could contribute to susceptibility to COVID-19 by downregulating NK cell cytotoxic activity in infected individuals but not in the asymptomatic partners.

DJ Men do have more ACE-2 receptors, often take less care of their health...in couples often the man is older then the woman. But on top of that some people may be "hard to get infected". We did see this with HIV/AIDS and the Plague...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925669-hematol-rep-covid-19-and-blood-groups-a-six-months-observational-study-in-ferrara-italy[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/laboratory-and-imaging-features/925669-hematol-rep-covid-19-and-blood-groups-a-six-months-observational-study-in-ferrara-italy ; Abstract

The current literature still gives a little information about the relationships between the ABO blood group system and the immune response to the virus or the different disease outcomes. 

Hypothesizing the presence of a predisposition by some blood groups to COVID-19, we searched for differences between patients towards the different outcomes of disease.

We enrolled 330 inpatients with a diagnosis of COVID-19, determining both their ABO blood group system and Rh factor, collecting demographic, clinical and laboratory data. 

We searched for relationships with COVID-19 outcomes within an observation period of 180 days (Intensification of Care - IoC, Inhospital death, 180-days mortality). 

The most frequent ABO blood group was A (45.8%); a minor part was represented by group O (38.8%), B (11.5%), AB (3.9%). 

As for the Rh factor, 86.7% of patients were Rh-positive. There were no significant differences between blood groups and Rh factors as for age, length of hospital stays (LoS), or Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), nor we found significant relationships between the ABO groups and COVID-19 outcomes.

 A significant relation was found between AB group and IoC (p=0.03) while as for the Rh factor, the patients with Rh factor positive died with less frequency during the stay (p=0.03). 

Cox regression analyses showed substantial differences in the survival functions concerning the Rh factors. 

The Rh factor seems to be involved in the 180-day prognosis. The survival functions of patients with Rh factor positive show, in fact, significantly better curves when compared to those with Rh factor negative.

DJ So the Rhesus factor may be a factor-more studies will follow !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925668-cureus-acute-transverse-myelitis-following-covid-19-infection-a-rare-case-from-saudi-arabia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925668-cureus-acute-transverse-myelitis-following-covid-19-infection-a-rare-case-from-saudi-arabia;

Abstract

Respiratory viral illnesses can lead to a wide variety of neurological complications. However, only a few cases of acute transverse myelitis (ATM) following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection have been reported in the literature. Here, we report a case of ATM following SARS-CoV-2 infection in a 57-year-old male patient. The patient presented to the emergency room with lower abdominal pain, urinary retention, bilateral lower limbs weakness, and allodynia for the last four days. 

One week earlier, he had experienced fever, cough, and shortness of breath. On physical examination, he was vitally stable with sensory loss from the nipples down to the lower limbs bilaterally. His nasopharyngeal polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 was positive. MRI of the spine showed an abnormal cord signal extending from the level of the D2 vertebra down to the conus medullaris. 

The main differential diagnosis was transverse myelitis, and the patient was started on pulse steroids for seven days. After the therapy, the condition of the patient improved with the restoration of power and sensory sensation in his lower limbs. 

A new MRI of the whole spine one month later showed normal morphology and signal intensity without any abnormal enhancement. The patient was discharged home with almost complete resolution of his symptoms for later follow-up in the clinic.

DJ-To translate these findings into a positive way; It offers hope for patients with long-covid. Some of the aspects may go away over time in some patients...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925662-environ-sci-pollut-res-int-persistence-and-occurrence-of-sars-cov-2-in-water-and-wastewater-environments-a-review-of-the-current-literature[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925662-environ-sci-pollut-res-int-persistence-and-occurrence-of-sars-cov-2-in-water-and-wastewater-environments-a-review-of-the-current-literature ; Abstract

As the world continues to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, emerging evidence indicates that respiratory transmission may not the only pathway in which the virus can be spread. 

This review paper aims to summarize current knowledge surrounding possible fecal-oral transmission of SARS-CoV-2. It covers recent evidence of proliferation of SARS-CoV-2 in the gastrointestinal tract, as well as presence and persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in water, and suggested future directions.

 Research indicates that SARS-CoV-2 can actively replicate in the human gastrointestinal system and can subsequently be shed via feces.

 Several countries have reported SARS-CoV-2 RNA fractions in wastewater systems, and various factors such as temperature and presence of solids have been shown to affect the survival of the virus in water.

 The detection of RNA does not guarantee infectivity, as current methods such as RT-qPCR are not yet able to distinguish between infectious and non-infectious particles. 

More research is needed to determine survival time and potential infectivity, as well as to develop more accurate methods for detection and surveillance.

DJ Bad news !!!! If the virus can survive in waste water it may mutate in waste water...Infection may be spread via unclean water...Many countries have more "smart phones" then toilets...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/925559-au-new-hendra-strain-discovered-in-flying-foxes-across-the-nation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/925559-au-new-hendra-strain-discovered-in-flying-foxes-across-the-nation ; THE equine industry is on high alert after the discover of a new strain of Hendra virus, which is more widely distributed than previous thought and can be found in flying foxes across the nation

The zootropic can be transmitted from flying foxes to horses, and from horses to people, however had only been found in Queensland and parts of NSW.

CSIRO scientists found the new genetic variation, Hendra Virus Genotype 2 (HeV-g2), in a horse near Newcastle NSW, in the southern most case of Hendra yet recorded.

After monitoring flying fox samples from 2013 to 2021, researchers at CSIRO's Australian Centre for Disease Preparedness found the new genetic type in flying foxes in Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia.

Previous studies suggested the black and the spectacled flying foxes were the primary carriers of Hendra virus.

However, the new study found the HeV-g2 in grey-headed flying foxes in Victoria and South Australia, and in the little red flying fox in Western Australia, confirming the virus can be found in four species of flying fox and in a broad geographic range of Australia.

CSIRO scientist Dr Kim Halpin said spillover of the disease from flying foxes to horses has still only been reported in Queensland and NSW...

DJ Just another reminder we may have been underestimating pandemic risks for decades !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925592-cureus-a-case-series-of-sars-cov-2-and-influenza-co-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925592-cureus-a-case-series-of-sars-cov-2-and-influenza-co-infection ; Abstract

The novel coronavirus 2019, a disease associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections has resulted in significant morbidity and mortality across the globe. In the United States, influenza has been one of the leading causes of hospitalization during the winter season. To date, the co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus has created a unique challenge for healthcare workers, especially during the cold season. Both viruses have similar clinical presentation and transmission characteristics. 

Many reports are available for either SARS-CoV-2 and influenza individual infections, but limited data are available for the co-infection. Herein, we present a case series of five cases of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza co-infection as well as their clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, management, and outcome. 

DJ-This is allready a major problem !!!! We simply do not test enough ! Healthcare capacity has been on breaking point for many months ! Even without CoViD a bad flu-season will be a major problem. There are lots of similarities between SARS-2 and a bad flu in severe illness ! They may both need the same sort of care-and that care is allready overstretched !

The answer has to be to increase NPI-restrictions to limit the spread of BOTH !!! diseases ! Increase vaccinations for both diseases...but it is a repeating pattern that we do not do a lot untill there is a major crisis killing tens-of-thousend per day ! We did go over the 15,000 deaths per day in january and april this year. We have been near or above 10,000 deaths per day most of this year...will we get over 20,000 deaths per day in december ? 

"Politics" may claim most of the coming deaths may be "flu-related", "unseen", "unexpected" and other non-sense blagh-blagh...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925580-emerg-infect-dis-effectiveness-of-international-travel-controls-for-delaying-local-outbreaks-of-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925580-emerg-infect-dis-effectiveness-of-international-travel-controls-for-delaying-local-outbreaks-of-covid-19Abstract

During the coronavirus disease pandemic, international travel controls have been widely adopted. To determine the effectiveness of these measures, we analyzed data from 165 countries and found that early implementation of international travel controls led to a mean delay of 5 weeks in the first epidemic peak of cases.

DJ Some countries did very good in keeping the virus out ! They now learn once the virus is in it may be very hard to get rid of it !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925579-emerg-infect-dis-sars-cov-2-shedding-in-semen-and-oligozoospermia-of-patient-with-severe-coronavirus-disease-11-weeks-after-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/925579-emerg-infect-dis-sars-cov-2-shedding-in-semen-and-oligozoospermia-of-patient-with-severe-coronavirus-disease-11-weeks-after-infection ; Abstract

We report severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in semen by using quantitative reverse transcription PCR during the late convalescent phase. Virus was associated with adequate humoral and cell-mediated responses, suggesting possible seeding of the immune-privileged testes. We provide longitudinal semen quality data for 6 other men, including 3 who had oligozoospermia.

DJ Men can spread the virus 11 weeks (77 days !!!) after infection (=positive test ?) by having unprotected intercourse...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925570-int-j-infect-dis-protective-immunity-after-natural-infection-with-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-sars-cov-2-kentucky-usa-2020[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925570-int-j-infect-dis-protective-immunity-after-natural-infection-with-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-sars-cov-2-kentucky-usa-2020 ; Abstract

Background: As vaccine supply and access remain limited in many parts of the world, understanding the duration of protection from reinfection after natural infection is important.
Methods: Distinct individuals testing positive and negative for SARS-CoV-2 between March 6, 2020, and August 31, 2020, in Kentucky, USA, were identified using the Kentucky National Electronic Disease Surveillance System. Individuals were followed for occurrence of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 from 91 days after their initial test result through December 31, 2020. Protection from reinfection provided by a prior infection was calculated and additional analyses evaluated impact of age, sex, symptom status, long-term care facility connection, testing occurrence and frequency, and time from initial infection.
Results: Protective effect from prior infection was 80.3% (95% CI, 78.2% - 82.2%) for those aged 20-59 years and 67.4% (95% CI, 62.8% - 71.4%) for those 60 years and older. At 30-day time periods through 270 days (with limited exceptions), protection was estimated to be greater than 75% for those aged 20-59 years and greater than 65% for those 60 years and older. Factors associated with repeat positive testing included a connection to a long-term care facility, duration of potential exposure, and absence of symptoms during initial infection.
Conclusions: Natural infection provides substantial and persistent immunologic protection for a period of several months for most individuals, although subpopulations may be at greater risk for repeat positive testing and potential poor outcomes associated with reinfection. These subgroups include individuals 60 years and older, residents and staff of long-term care facilities, and those who have mild or asymptomatic illness with initial infection. Continued emphasis on vaccination and infection prevention and control strategies remains critically important in reducing the risk for reinfection and associated severe outcomes for these groups.

DJ-Goes totally against news from Brazil, India, Iran...the basic point may be the timing...This US study fall back to pre-variant statistics...The study ended december 31-2020. The US did see Alfa/UK etc. becoming a problem later on...Surviving SARS-1 or MERS may offer better "natural" protection ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925568-ebiomedicine-a-poor-and-delayed-anti-sars-cov2-igg-response-is-associated-to-severe-covid-19-in-children[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/925568-ebiomedicine-a-poor-and-delayed-anti-sars-cov2-igg-response-is-associated-to-severe-covid-19-in-childrenAbstract

Background: Most children and youth develop mild or asymptomatic disease during severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. However, a very small number of patients suffer severe Coronavirus induced disease 2019 (COVID-19). The reasons underlying these different outcomes remain unknown.
Methods: We analyzed three different cohorts: children with acute infection (n=550), convalescent children (n=138), and MIS-C (multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, n=42). IgG and IgM antibodies to the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, serum-neutralizing activity, plasma cytokine levels, and the frequency of circulating Follicular T helper cells (cTfh) and plasmablasts were analyzed by conventional methods.
Findings: Fifty-eight percent of the children in the acute phase of infection had no detectable antibodies at the time of sampling while a seronegative status was found in 25% and 12% of convalescent and MIS-C children, respectively. When children in the acute phase of the infection were stratified according disease severity, we found that contrasting with the response of children with asymptomatic, mild and moderate disease, children with severe COVID-19 did not develop any detectable response. A defective antibody response was also observed in the convalescent cohort for children with severe disease at the time of admission. This poor antibody response was associated to both, a low frequency of cTfh and a high plasma concentration of inflammatory cytokines.
Interpretation: A weak and delayed kinetic of antibody response to SARS-CoV-2 together with a systemic pro-inflammatory profile characterize pediatric severe COVID-19. Because comorbidities are highly prevalent in children with severe COVID-19, further studies are needed to clarify their contribution in the weak antibody response observed in severe disease.

DJ Immunity systems may be different in groups of people...it may even be disease-specific...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVBzaTnDZKo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVBzaTnDZKo Where is herd immunity ? 

ZOE [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJHdFOwZjVI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJHdFOwZjVI "Herd Immunity, fact or fiction ? "

Some of the info under the video....From under Dr.J.C. his video;

Professor Tim Spector The UK seems to b

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, 

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ;

Serious red flagsDriehoekige vlag op stok to spot bad health officials— Driehoekige vlag op stokCoronavirus isn’t airborneDriehoekige vlag op stok  Driehoekige vlag op stokJust stay 6 feetDriehoekige vlag op stok Driehoekige vlag op stokPlexiglassDriehoekige vlag op stok Driehoekige vlag op stokDon’t worry about variantsDriehoekige vlag op stok Driehoekige vlag op stokCan’t get reinfectedDriehoekige vlag op stok Driehoekige vlag op stokNo need to mask indoorsDriehoekige vlag op stok Driehoekige vlag op stok”Learn to live” with the virusDriehoekige vlag op stok Driehoekige vlag op stokKids are practically immuneDriehoekige vlag op stok #COVID19

We know a lot about "the virus", point is we do not use that knowledge much....

Here in NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/16/covid-likely-overload-hospitals-upcoming-months[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/16/covid-likely-overload-hospitals-upcoming-months again ????

Dutch hospitals need to be ready if there is a sharp rise of coronavirus cases, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Control Jaap van Dissel and RIVM chief modeler Jacco Wallinga said in an interview with NOS.

The RIVM expected the number of Covid-19 patients in the ICU to range between 180 to 400 in January if the current measures are kept in place. Such an increase could cause hospitals to overload, ICU doctor Diederik Gommers said earlier this week to NOS.


"What we want to say with the prognoses is that a high number of ICU admissions cannot be excluded, but the margins are broad. We need to be prepared for every scenario," Wallinga said. 

DJ The Dutch CDC and an "Outbreak Management Team" have become political tools to STOP the needed steps...in the hope it will not get as bad as should be expected..."saving the economy"....just like in many other countries....

Another "wishfull non-sense" "pandemics always last two years"....historically proberbly even incorrect for the Spanish Flu. The peak may have been in 1918-19, but the disease was around proberbly from 1917 till 1923 - the spread in the colonies came after the spread in the "motherland"...spread by steamboat....And that was a flu-type...

What we are dealing now is lots of forms of a corona-virus. Besides Delta B.1.616, B.1.620 and B.1.630 may need attention...In Delta several sub-variants are proberbly increasing in several parts of the globe...

Natural immunity, herd immunity are "dreams" not real....but still the "strategy" seems to get "herd immunity via vaccines and natural infection"....

I think we may see a global peak starting allready in december, most likely worse then we did see before. Trust in governments/"experts" may drop to zero...so there may not be that much support for the only effective tool left; Non Pharma Interventions...

Vaccines did a great job but their protection may be decreasing while new variants (a part of them in Delta) are getting better in evading that protection. 

Even with-like in NL-a very clear picture cases are going up politics fail to take the right steps in time...the outcome will be many more deaths...No doubt some "political liars" will try to blame the flu for that....

Outlook = bad !!!

-Numbers 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Weekend numbers give an indication on weekend testing...The US only detecting/reporting 33,910 cases may not be doing a lot of testing in the weekend-or at least not reporting it. This will give some over-reporting the other weekdays...The UK has 43,423 cases-a high number !

Russia reporting 33,208 new cases, Russia deaths now over 1,000 with 1,002 deaths reported...Very limited vaccines and restrictions...Russians did welcome foreigners going for a Sputnik-V vaccination trip but a lot of them do not trust that vaccine. As far as I know Sputnik-V may do as good/bad as the AstraZeneca-Oxford (UK-Sweden-Adeno) vaccine...around 60%+ protection...better off with it then without it...

Trends cases -5% , deaths -9%...UK and Russia both (still) at +14%, Iran +2%...they made the news because a lot of Iranians may have been infected SEVERAL times....

Also some variants may be infecting deeper in the body-not show up with a stick put in nose/mouth...so simply missed. 

That puts us at very limited testing-with testing itself not good enough-and of those tests we sequence to little...Most of the spread was allready a/pre symptomatic before both variants and vaccines played a role (CDC-2020 put that at 59%)...we are "blind" in this pandemic...an "eyesight" of less then 5% at best...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925647-proposal-for-ay-4-sublineage-with-s-145h-s-222v-mostly-uk-223[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925647-proposal-for-ay-4-sublineage-with-s-145h-s-222v-mostly-uk-223 ;DJ A sub-variant of Delta may be increasing in some parts of Western Europe..But it may be getting harder and harder to test and follow sub-variants...by now it could be thousends of them detected in over 10 cases...Only showing up with further spread leaving less time to react...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925704-honolulu-zoo-announces-2-lions-test-positive-for-covid-13-year-old-male-lion-dead[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925704-honolulu-zoo-announces-2-lions-test-positive-for-covid-13-year-old-male-lion-dead ; Honolulu Zoo officials announced a 13-year-old male lion with underlying health conditions named Ekundu died on Monday, Oct. 11. Ekundu and another 12-year-old female lion, Moxy, both tested positive for COVID.

On Monday, Oct. 4, zoo officials noticed both lions exhibiting symptoms of an upper respiratory illness with coughing, and they were tested for SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID in humans...

DJ Proberbly Delta sub-variant ? Spread in non-human hosts increases risk for further mutations...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925696-half-of-covid-survivors-experience-lingering-symptoms-six-months-after-recovery[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925696-half-of-covid-survivors-experience-lingering-symptoms-six-months-after-recovery

How many people get ‘long COVID?’ More than half, researchers find in large population study


Governments, health care organizations and public health professionals should prepare for the large number of COVID-19 survivors who will need care for a variety of symptoms.


... The investigators noted several trends among survivors, such as:

  • General well-being: More than half of all patients reported weight loss, fatigue, fever or pain.
  • Mobility: Roughly one in five survivors experienced a decrease in mobility.
  • Neurologic concerns: Nearly one in four survivors experienced difficulty concentrating.
  • Mental health disorders: Nearly one in three patients were diagnosed with generalized anxiety disorders.
  • Lung abnormalities: Six in ten survivors had chest imaging abnormality and more than a quarter of patients had difficulty breathing.
  • Cardiovascular issues: Chest pain and palpitations were among the commonly reported conditions.
  • Skin conditions: Nearly one in five patients experienced hair loss or rashes.
  • Digestive issues: Stomach pain, lack of appetite, diarrhea and vomiting were among the commonly reported conditions.

“These findings confirm what many health care workers and COVID-19 survivors have been claiming, namely, that adverse health effects from COVID-19 can linger,” said co-lead investigator Vernon Chinchilli, chair of the Department of Public Health Sciences.

DJ A problem here....most infections are without serious problems-as far as we know. So "half of CoViD survivors" may be providing info on those who did get symptoms....(Or is this story on people from hospitals ? ICU ?)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/925695-differential-kinetics-of-immune-responses-elicited-by-covid-19-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/925695-differential-kinetics-of-immune-responses-elicited-by-covid-19-vaccinesPrevious studies have shown that the BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson–Janssen) vaccines provide robust protective efficacy against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19). Here, we report comparative kinetics of humoral and cellular immune responses elicited by the two-dose BNT162b2 vaccine (in 31 participants), the two-dose mRNA-1273 vaccine (in 22 participants), and the one-dose Ad26.COV2.S vaccine (in 8 participants). We evaluated antibody and T-cell responses from peak immunity at 2 to 4 weeks after the second immunization in recipients of the messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines or after the first immunization in recipients of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine to 8 months ...

At peak immunity, the BNT162b2 vaccine induced a high median live-virus neutralizing antibody titer (1789), a high median pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titer (700), and a high median binding antibody titer against the receptor-binding domain (RBD) (21,564). However, these titers declined sharply by 6 months after vaccination, as previously reported,1,2and they declined further by 8 months (Figure 1A through 1C, S1, and S2). By 8 months after BNT162b2 vaccination, the median live-virus neutralizing antibody titer (53), pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titer (160), and RBD-specific binding antibody titer (755) elicited by the vaccine were lower than the peak titers by a factor of 34, 4, and 29, respectively. ...

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...96?cookieSet=1

DJ To make it even more complex; the difference of protection also may be a matter of age, gender (men have more ACE-2 receptors in their genitals) and level of vaccination of your enviroment...When over 80% of the people around you are fully vaccinated you have a lot better protection then when it is less then 20% (schools foe example; it is very easy to "blame unvaccinated" but a large part of that group can not even get vaccinated !!!).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925693-why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-%E2%80%93-and-why-this-may-not-last[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925693-why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-%E2%80%93-and-why-this-may-not-last ; It is one of the conundrums of the current phase of the Covid pandemic: the UK has among the highest number of infections across the world and a death toll that continues to steadily climb, yet the national mood seems sanguine. So is this down to British stoicism, a Keep Calm and Carry on mentality?

... On Thursday, the UK reported more than 45,000 new coronavirus cases – the most since mid-July – and more than 800 deaths were reported in the past seven days. Hospitalisations are rising, with one-fifth of ICU beds occupied by Covid patients, and the latest figures showed an estimated 200,000 pupils absent from school.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...s-may-not-last

DJ This pandemic is only part of bigger problems. We will see economic consequencess soon. To many bubbles in housing, shares, even currencies (US$, €) close to exploding...

Worms & Germs blog [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/09/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-updated-part-3-pigs/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/09/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-updated-part-3-pigs/ ; There are no reports of any naturally infected pigs, but I’m also not aware of any actual testing of pigs on farms. (“We don’t think there’s anything to investigate” is often stated with an unspoken “we don’t really want to know.”)

-

We can’t rule out the potential that pigs get infected but don’t get sick. That’s why we really should have more active surveillance, looking at pigs that have potentially been exposed.

-

That’s the wild card for all our animal discussions. Experimental studies were done early in the pandemic and used the original strain of the virus. The SARS-CoV-2 strains we’re seeing now are quite different, at least in humans. Odds are low that delta or other variants would be much more able to infect pigs, but we simply don’t know. As we see new variants, we need to realize that what we know from earlier work isn’t necessarily still the case. It’s another reason ongoing surveillance would be good, but I won’t hold my breath on that.

DJ Before the CoViD-19 pandemic started [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus#2018-2020_African_swine_fever_panzootic[/url] there was a pandemic African Swine Fever crisis. 

From Wikipedia ; 

African swine fever virus (ASFV) is a large, double-stranded DNA virus in the Asfarviridae family.[1] It is the causative agent of African swine fever (ASF). The virus causes a hemorrhagic fever with high mortality rates in domestic pigs; some isolates can cause death of animals as quickly as a week after infection. It persistently infects its natural hosts, warthogsbushpigs, and soft ticks of the genus Ornithodoros, which likely act as a vector, with no disease signs.[2] It does not cause disease in humans.[3][4] ASFV is endemic to sub-Saharan Africa and exists in the wild through a cycle of infection between ticks and wild pigs, bushpigs, and warthogs. The disease was first described after European settlers brought pigs into areas endemic with ASFV, and as such, is an example of an emerging infectious disease.

ASFV replicates in the cytoplasm of infected cells.[1] It is the only virus with a double-stranded DNA genome known to be transmitted by arthropods.

DJ Could ASFV weakened pigs catch the CoViD-19 from bats-not get ill from that virus (die or get killed because of African Swine Fever) but still spread CoViD-19 ? To much of a coincidence...but I am NOT an expert, just trying to make sense...

[url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/10/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-part-4-updated-mustelids-mink-and-ferrets/[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/2021/10/articles/animals/other-animals/covid-in-animals-review-part-4-updated-mustelids-mink-and-ferrets/ ;

Mink aren’t the only critters in the mustelid family that are a concern when it comes to SARS-CoV-2. Any species from the mustelid family probably has similar susceptibility to the virus.  The domestic pet relative of mink is the ferret. Ferrets are “niche” pets but they’re far from rare, and many ferrets have very close contact with their owners.

So, we have widely different issues in how we manage and interact with different mustelids, whether on a farm, in the home or in the wild. Regardless, the net result is situations where there’s a good chance for respiratory virus transmission.

-

No one was talking about mink or risks to/from mink farms at the start of the outbreak, even among those of us who were thinking about risks from other species (lots of people tried to ignore animal risks altogether from what was clearly an animal-origin virus, but that’s a rant for another day).

While we may not have initially paid attention to mink, SARS-CoV-2 did. Mink are highly susceptible to this virus, and there have been widespread outbreaks on mink farms, first identified in the Netherlands but subsequently in multiple countries as well (including Canada and the US).

-

This virus clearly can cause disease in mink, but it doesn’t always. There may be a predilection for severe disease in mink of a certain age, or in pregnant mink (as with people), but there are still lots of things we don’t understand.

DJ That link is very clear ! But we do not know enough...CoViD-19 DOES mutate in mink-like animals but it does look like mink-related mutations do make CoViD weaker...Just like with the pig-and other animals-story...new variants will change the picture...

What is known today may be "old wisdom" tomorrow...My impression is we do not know a lot of CoViD-spread in animals eventhough it is supposed to have come from bats-via another species-into humans....

-Dr.John Campbell talking with Dr. Pieter Gaillard from Leiden-NL on vaccinations in the blood chain instead of the muscle...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbjuWs99CrE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hbjuWs99CrE DJ Not a very clear story...Aspirating could limit unwanted complications...but we knew that allready...

DJ-The picture I (still) have is that if the vaccination/needle hits a small blood vessel still most of the vaccine may end up in the muscle ? When you pull out the needle you may damage a small blood vessel so a drop of blood after vaccination does not meat the vaccine is not working...

I understand the logics behind NOT aspirating (faster, less pain) but it may be worth reconsideration given the possible effects-even in a major global vaccination campain...(just my opinion...)

-Music; Sunday Morning - Maroon 5 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2Cti12XBw4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S2Cti12XBw4 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 17 2021 at 9:07pm

DJ, 

-Numbers [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator




After this fall/winter season, we will have two full years of data to evaluate if the #SARS2 pandemic is progressing or stabilizing. Also, we'll better see #SARS2's rhythm; if it shows seasonality patterns & in which climates. Soon, there will be the 3rd line in these charts.


Afbeelding

but also a look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ can give an indication of what to expect...

The longer term trends show both cases -6% and deaths -9% going down. But a few weeks ago that decline was larger-very likely first cases will show a global increase. 

Europe cases +13%, deaths +10% is driving that increase. North America cases -24%, deaths -23% may still be on its way to the lowest point in this part of the pandemic. 

Looking at Europe-countries +1 milion in population, Czechia is showing an increase of +54%, NL is second with +53%, Poland, Latvia both +49%, Hungary +42%, Bulgaria +33%, Estonia +26%, Ireland +25%, Slovakia, Denmark +23%, Belgium, Slovenia +19%, Austria, Finland +18%, UK +17%, Russia +15%, Lithuania +13%, Romania +11%... Germany, Sweden, Spain, Italy (among a few others) reporting a decrease of cases. 

This list of + countries indicate it is not only eastern Europe that is having a problem. Also there may be some (sub)variants increasing. My impression is that the UK may be "producing" another fast spreading variant of Delta ? In eastern Europe-often low vacinations/testing Delta does not need new variants to spread-but also some other variants may be spreading...

A total lack of restrictions is doing the rest...And it will not stop in Europe !

Corruption [url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 is another problem; 




A Wolverhampton lab may have wrongly told 43k people that their COVID test was negative. Immensa Health run the lab.  revealed in Nov 2020 that Immensa had been given a £119m gov. contract, despite only having been in existence for 4 months

DJ Some of the "commercial labs" send used tests to people...One "lab" did tell over 43,000 people (from a group of 400,000) their test was negative while it was positive...

Here in NL a young member of the christian-democrats did get 100 million € for "non-profit" facemasks last year-lots of volunteers did work in logistics-only to learn later on that man made a profit of over 30 million €...

This pandemic is the outcome of neo-liberalism "open borders", "saving the economy" with as an outcome a pandemic that only will get worse...Viruses travel for free and they get a lot of oppertunity to do so...

Also ignoring the allready +100 UK children that died from coViD-schools have to stay open...Sticking to an unrealistic fantasy of "herd immunity" while the virus is mutating like crazy does not help. 

Outside Europe a.o. Central- and some South American countries reporting (sharp) increases; Paraguay +101%, Honduras +49%, Chile +43%, Uruguay +18%, Argentina +9%, Peru +8%, Bolivia +7%, Dominican Republic +3%. 

Several major variants came from South America (Peru, Argentina). Brazil-cases -36% did produce P1 and P2 variants...

Iran, Turkey, Laos among others also still in the +...

Maybe giving a hint on what to expect from "politics" in this pandemic ; [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/10/will-cop26-in-glasgow-deliver.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/10/will-cop26-in-glasgow-deliver.html ; The NASA map shows an anomaly of 0.96°C compared to 1951-1980. With COP26 to be held in Glasgow, from October 31 to November 12, 2021, it's important to realize that using the period from 1951 to 1980 as a base is not the same as pre-industrial .

-

Of course, 1900 is still not pre-industrial. The chart below shows three trends:
  1. The green trend is based on unadjusted NASA data (1951-1980 base). 
  2. The lilac trend is based on data adjusted by 0.79°C for a 1750 base, for higher polar anomalies and for ocean air temperatures. The lilac trend shows that the 1.5°C threshold was already crossed when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, while a 3°C could be crossed well before 2050.
  3. The red trend is based on data adjusted by 1.28°C, adding an extra 0.49°C to the lilac data for a 3480 BC base. The red trend shows that the 2°C threshold was already crossed when the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, while a 5°C anomaly could crossed by 2060.

DJ So in this pandemic BoJo may claim a 1,000 UK deaths per day/week is "normal and acceptable". Here in NL PM rutte may claim 100 deaths per day is "no problem"...The real problem are our "politicians" denying problems...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924564-russia-reports-record-daily-covid-deaths?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924564-russia-reports-record-daily-covid-deaths?view=stream latest; Russia is reporting its largest daily number of new coronavirus infections, more than 70 percent up on the number a month ago as the country faces a sustained rise in cases.

The national coronavirus task force on Sunday said 34,303 new infections were recorded in the previous day, compared with the 20,174 reported Sept. 19.

The death toll of 999 was barely lower than the record 1,002 deaths reported on Saturday.

Russian authorities have tried to speed up the pace of vaccinations with lotteries, bonuses and other incentives, but widespread vaccine skepticism and conflicting signals from officials stymied the efforts. The government said this week that about 43 million Russians, or some 29 percent of the country’s nearly 146 million people, are fully vaccinated.

Despite the mounting toll, the Kremlin has ruled out a new nationwide lockdown like the one early on in the pandemic that badly hurt the economy, eroding President Vladimir Putin’s popularity. Instead, it has delegated the power to enforce coronavirus restrictions to regional authorities.

Some of Russia’s 85 regions have restricted attendance at large public events and limited access to theaters, restaurants and other venues. However, daily life is going on largely as normal in Moscow, St. Petersburg and many other Russian cities...

DJ For that matter Putin is no better then BoJo...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925711-nearly-40-of-california-state-workers-are-unvaccinated-against-covid-despite-newsom-order[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925711-nearly-40-of-california-state-workers-are-unvaccinated-against-covid-despite-newsom-order ; The COVID-19 vaccination rate is lower among California state workers than among the state's general population, according to data from the state Human Resources Department.

Fewer than two-thirds of state workers — about 62% — were vaccinated as of Oct. 7, according to preliminary figures provided by department spokeswoman Camille Travis. That compares to a rate of about 72% among all Californians, according to state data.

The employee data is incomplete, accounting for about 213,000 of the state's 238,000 employees, Travis said. But the relatively low rate identified so far suggests many workers weren't moved by Gov. Gavin Newsom's July orders to workers to get vaccinated or submit to regular testing...

DJ Non-mandatory a-political vaccination campains do work much better ! In Portugal over 90% of the population is vaccinated...(but lifting of restrictions means cases +7% with daily cases +4,000 on a population just over 10 million). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/925709-pathogens-emergence-and-characterization-of-a-novel-reassortant-canine-influenza-virus-isolated-from-cats[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/925709-pathogens-emergence-and-characterization-of-a-novel-reassortant-canine-influenza-virus-isolated-from-cats ;

Although most people believe that the SARS-CoV-2 virus came completely out of left field, long time followers of the science and readers of this blog know that we've been following research into novel coronaviruses in China - and elsewhere - since the the mid-2000s.


After the SARS scare in 2002-03 (see SARS And Remembrance), and the ongoing outbreaks of MERS-CoV in the Middle East (seeStudy: A Pandemic Risk Assessment Of MERS-CoV In Saudi Arabia), novel coronaviruses crept up to the number two position on our pandemic watch list; just after novel influenza.

-

And just 3 months before the Wuhan outbreak, the Johns Hopkins Center For Health Security (JHCHS) - in concert with the World Economic Forum and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation - hosted a half-day table top pandemic exercise (#Event201) in New York City which used a fictional CAPS coronavirus as the catalyst for a deadly pandemic scenario.


We follow what may seem to be obscure - even low probability - zoonotic threats because the next pandemic will most likely arise from some currently little known, emerging virus.


While high impact H5 or H7 avian influenza viruses - with a track record up to a 50% fatality rate in humans - is the nightmare scenario, all of the human influenza pandemics we know of going back 130 years have been caused by H1H2, or H3 viruses (see Are Influenza Pandemic Viruses Members Of An Exclusive Club?).

-

Starting in the early 2000s, we also became aware that felines were susceptible to some types of avian flu (see HPAI H5: Catch As Cats Can), and in 2011, it was announced that Korea’s canine H3N2 can jump to cats (see Korea: Interspecies Transmission of Canine H3N2).


While transmission of influenza viruses from humans to companion animals (reverse zoonosishas been well demonstrated, the ability of cats and dogs to transmit to humans is less well established.


The best investigated case was an outbreak of avian H7N2 among hundreds of cats across several NYC animal shelters, which found at least two employees infected (see J Infect Dis: Serological Evidence Of H7N2 Infection Among Animal Shelter Workers, NYC 2016) , while 5 others exhibited low positive titers to the virus, indicating possible infection.


Against this backdrop we have a new study, published this past week, on the detection of a novel reassorted avian-canine-human H3N2 virus in a cat in China. I've only posted some excerpts from a much longer report, so follow the link to read it in its entirety.

Poultry and swine remain most likely reservoir hosts for the next pandemic flu virus, but there is growing evidence that companion animals - particularly dogs and cats - could be intermediate hosts, and potential `mixing vessels' for an emerging novel flu virus.


The CDC currently ranks a Chinese Swine-variant EA H1N1 `G4' as having the highest pandemic potential of any flu virus on their list, but a few favorable (for the virus) mutations could quickly propel a lesser viral threat to the top of the list.


For more on this topic, you may wish to revisit:


https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2021/...gence-and.html

DJ If you think CoViD was bad...For that matter [url]https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2021/10/16/lion-honolulu-zoo-dies-after-contracting-covid-case-prompting-broader-concern-facility/[/url] or https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2021/10/16/lion-honolulu-zoo-dies-after-contracting-covid-case-prompting-broader-concern-facility/

Ekundu, who had been treated for epilepsy, started to develop difficulty breathing. The zoo said the lion died a week after first showing signs of illness.

The positive COVID test, however, was only received after Ekundu’s death.

Zoo veterinarian Jill Yoshicedo said while most COVID infections “in large non-domestic cats have been mild illnesses that respond well to supportive care, Ekundu was unfortunately one of the newer cases where COVID seems to be linked to severe pneumonia and tragic loss of life in these species.”

Officials added further tests are needed to determine the role of the viral infection in Ekundu’s death.

DJ "Underlying healthissues" in this case does NOT explain the death of the lion ! It may indicate some CoViD-variants (in Delta) cause more severe disease in cat-like animals. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925693-why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-%E2%80%93-and-why-this-may-not-last[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925693-why-britons-are-tolerating-sky-high-covid-rates-%E2%80%93-and-why-this-may-not-last latest; The case distribution may be a factor if the wealthier segment of the population is mostly vaccinated, while the poorer sector suffers in relative silence.
The virus festers among the marginalized elements of society, as New Zealand discovered, which resulted in the failure of the zero tolerance policy.
A forceful reminder that just as no man is an island, neither is any part of society.

DJ There are several groups-in several regions-suffering the most. Often it is the poor, underpriviliged, but also some orthodox religion groups, foreign workers ( in part without papers dealing with xenophobic "politicians".) "Leaders" going for a "blame-game" are trying to secure their own positions...it is not their strategy that is failing-it is the unvaccinated you have to blame...So the elite can go for wintersports within a few months time...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHazL7-EyDA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHazL7-EyDA ;

China IS aspirating during vaccination, the west is not....in part explaining complications from vaccinations...

The WHO is organizing another team to look in China on how this pandemic started ; Mike Ryan This is our best chance, and it may be our last chance to understand the origins of this virus take a step back, create an environment where we can again look at the scientific issues Urged China to provide data from early cases China, no more visits are needed Previous WHO team spent four weeks in and around Wuhan 

DJ Dr.J.C. (and I) do not agree this is the "last chance"...DJ-We did find the virus behind the Spanish Flu in the 60's...

One major problem is the new cold war that started (by the US, NATO moving east...). We need international cooperation but we are in the worst international situation since 1945...

On the background flooding in China, India a.o. La Palma volcano may be getting closer to an explosion...So "not the best scenario to get out of any major problem" ....

-Music ; The 5th Dimension - Aquarius/Let The sunshine In [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbCH5lnZ6sA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vbCH5lnZ6sA 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 18 2021 at 9:03pm

DJ, 

-Some international background; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/beijing-moscow-ankara-push-us-out-red-sea-dominance[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/beijing-moscow-ankara-push-us-out-red-sea-dominance The US supported seperatist groups in Ethiopia-now Ethiopia is getting military aid from Turkey, Russia, Iran, China (TRIC)...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-russia-navies-transit-tsugaru-strait-japan-territorial-waters[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/china-russia-navies-transit-tsugaru-strait-japan-territorial-waters Allthough Hal Turner is doing a lot of crazy insanity this report may be real. Ten Russian and Chinese Navy ships went between Honshu and Hokkaido from the Sea of Japan to the Pacific Ocean...

Russia, China and its allies are "sending messages" ...[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/the-new-chinese-wonder-weapon-which-likely-isnt-one.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/the-new-chinese-wonder-weapon-which-likely-isnt-one.html but some info is propaganda...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pentagon-chief-stress-open-door-nato-visit-ukraine-georgia[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pentagon-chief-stress-open-door-nato-visit-ukraine-georgia After NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto is moving east....We may be just a few steps away from further escalation-with the West very divided and not ready-most-for "major conflict"....

My impression is Russia and China want to "reorder the world" more to their interest...Trying to "keep damage limited" and putting clear goals...

In 1989-1991 the Soviet era ended. The west wasted that moment to do something constructive...Europe is willing to do bussiness, the US needs Russian energy...Russia (military) and China (investments) are now THE global players...Deal with it or face the consequences !

-Numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Most numbers are at a weekend low-but UK numbers are NOT !!!! UK weekend numbers saterday 44,989 cases, sunday (reported monday) 49,156....[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculatorHas the UK managed to breed a 2nd new fitter variant in just 12 months? Superb. Outstanding.

DJ I did ask the same question yesterday.... "My impression is that the UK may be "producing" another fast spreading variant of Delta ?" When I see these kind of both numbers and questions it is getting pretty alarming ! 

BoJo criminal mishandling of this healthcrisis as another bussiness-oppertunity could-in potential-kill millions...Do we have to rethink of "our" leaders like BoJo, bolsenaro (CIA-fascist ruining Brazil) at the same level as hitler, stalin, mao...killing millions ?  Modi of India has the excuse India is a very large, very poor-still-most-country...even the best of leaders would not be able to avoid massive deaths...India, Iran did do a lot in vaccines, did accept international help (Iran from Cuba, Russia, China, Poland/EU). 

Do we have to include Putin on this list as well ? What about Biden-US ? Both Russia and the US do offer vaccines for free. In both countries to many people refuse those vaccines...in both countries-as in many other countries-there is a lack of NPI/restrictions...

Many leaders underestimate this pandemic, what a corona-virus outbreak can do....Maybe veterinarians, knowing CoViD in animals are impossible to control, should have had more say in strategies. Also medical historians could have been helpfull...Major problem with both groups would be the message would be "unwelcome" , another "inconvenient truth" the establishment did not want to hear...

So where are we in this pandemic compared to some other crisis ? 

-Russia/China dominating the world; as good as a fact...

-Climate collapse; almost impossible to avoid very major damage

-Economic collapse; "bubble capitalism" without a government balance had to go off road...

-This pandemic; in fact out of control, worsening, likely to see major other healthcrises on top of it....

-Political crises; There is a struggle between environmentalists and fascists...The other crises leave no other choice then going for "real green solutions" but we may be billions of deaths away from getting there....

DJ-I see myself as an optimist; we may survive, get out of these crises in some decades...But humans seem to have to learn the hard way....

A further look at (weekend) numbers; 

Global reported cases for saterday was 338,284, 4,591 deaths...sunday did see 342,257 new cases (under)reported, 4,879 deaths...

The US both days around 50,000 new cases-pre-weekend still close to 100,000 cases per day. Russia reporting close to a 1,000 deaths per day...

Trends; Global cases (only) -3%, deaths -7%. Europe still showing increases, Asia now cases -7%, deaths -8%. Iran +3% in cases, Turkey +0,2%, Jordan +16%, Laos +4%...Europe cases +14%, deaths + 10% with two major players UK cases +18%, Russia cases +15%...both countries could be dealing with new (sub)variants...better in dealing with (evading) immunity...

Iran statistics do indicate most of the population did get CoViD several times....Israel numbers indicate booster vaccines work !

Also NPI/restrictions, lockdowns, masks etc. have limiting effects....

-Flutrackers/twitter etc. 

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ has a lot in Dutch; victims of political scandals in NL have to convince politicians what they did wrong....underlining the deep crisis...But also ; 

Sanger released its latest local data on AY.4.2 - the new subtype of Delta substrain AY.4 that UKHSA are monitoring. It's all still preliminary so DO NOT read too much into this but here is the chart of AY.4.2 growth by region 1/3


DJ (I am hoping a statistic would show up....[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp also a retweet; Min 4 covid cases in my immunocompromised daughter's classroom.Took her out a few days ago.Only had the info cause the principal decided to do the ethical thing and inform us. It may have been too late; this evening she developed a cough #ROAR #LongCovid #LongCovidKids #pwME

DJ Unbelievable crime; schools not allowed to inform parents/children CoViD is spreading...Why BoJo is not in prison yet ?)

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator a.o. has; Based on same fit, but looking at growth rate advantage of AY.4.2 vs AY.4 I would get growth rate advantage of 2.2% per day [2.0-2.4%] 95% CLs, which with a GT of 4.7 days would correspond to a 11% higher R value. Very small compared to advantage that Alpha & Delta had.

And ; "Delta isn't transmitted by CO2". High levels of CO2 indicate breathing more indoor air in other people's breath-called re-breathed fraction. Of course if you are breathing more and more of other people breath, the risk of aerosol inhalation (transmission pathway) goes up.

And ; Getting there: The wealthiest 10% of Americans own a record 89% of all U.S. stocks

DJ There are "lots of unpolite words" to describe the crises we are in...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericdingHere is another major misinfo red flag 🚩 that politicians love to tout… “herd immunity is coming soon” 🚩 🚩 🚩 🚩…. There are parts of Iran where people have been infected 2-3 times!!!  Mass infection is not a strategy! Let find our damn moral backbone!!!

DJ Again-this pandemic is only part of a much larger problem...

[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD ; Professor Michael Baker of the University of Otago will join the panel of the WSWS’ October 24 webinar, “How to end the pandemic: The case for eradication.” Baker ranks among the world’s leading advocates of an elimination strategy to stop COVID-19.

DJ I think we have to for "ZeroCovid" the best we (still) can...It is NOT a coincidence a World Socialist WebSite (WSWS) is organizing such internet-meetings...In my opinion a lot of problems are the outcome of an economic (and because of that social etc. ) unbalance....It is also NOT a coincidence I am switching more and more to "twitter" for real news....Again "embedded media" are doing a bad job most often...."info-tainment" at best...[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 and [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/ also worth watching...

Wishfull thinking and denial are the major cornerstones of most countries strategies in this pandemic...no testing=no cases insanity...We can not get out of these crises if we do not free ourselves from the "leaders" that put is into this swamp....

Some Flutrackers latests posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925778-delta-ay-sub-variant-which-requires-urgent-research-found-in-these-u-s-states[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925778-delta-ay-sub-variant-which-requires-urgent-research-found-in-these-u-s-states ; A new COVID Delta offshoot that scientists have voiced concerns about as it spreads through the U.K. has also been detected in the U.S.

However, there have only been six U.S. cases reported and it does not appear to have been spreading recently in the states.

Delta has branched off into dozens of different types that are referred to with the 'AY' label.

... It's a version of the AY.4 Delta variant that already accounts for around 80 percent of recent cases in the U.K. Now, scientists have noticed an offshoot of the AY.4 variant—an offshoot of an offshoot—that includes a spike mutation known as Y145H.

In the U.K. it has accounted for around eight percent of new sequenced cases in recent days and about one percent of total cases, Outbreak.Info shows.

... It has only been detected in four states altogether, Outbreak.Info shows - Oregon, where there have been three cases, and North Carolina, Washington, and Washington D.C., where there has only been one case in each.

https://www.newsweek.com/delta-ay-va...tes-uk-1639842

DJ The main problem-worldwide-is lack of testing and sequencing...on top of that there are some indications some variants/infections may be missed by upper respitory testing....We may have less then 1% "eyesight" in this present crisis, we are "blind by choice". Increasing much more of ad random testing both in sewage and in non-symptomatic (vaccinated) cases would help...

There are SEVERAL !!!!! variants (sub-variants etc.) increasing...this pandemic is getting (much) worse !!! And we may be simply missing most of it due to lack of testing and sequencing...

Maybe let me be even MORE CLEAR !!!!! There is a tsunami of cases just around the corner...but we do not want to see it...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925776-why-covid-boosters-weren%E2%80%99t-tweaked-to-better-match-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925776-why-covid-boosters-weren%E2%80%99t-tweaked-to-better-match-variantsMore COVID-19 booster shots may be on the way -- but when it’s your turn, you’ll get an extra dose of the original vaccine, not one updated to better match the extra-contagious delta variant.

And that has some experts wondering if the booster campaign is a bit of a missed opportunity to target delta and its likely descendants.

“Don’t we want to match the new strains that are most likely to circulate as closely as possible?” Dr. Cody Meissner of Tufts Medical Center, an adviser to the Food and Drug Administration, challenged Pfizer scientists recently.

“I don’t quite understand why this is not delta because that’s what we’re facing right now,” fellow adviser Dr. Patrick Moore of the University of Pittsburgh said last week as government experts debated whether it’s time for Moderna boosters. He wondered if such a switch would be particularly useful to block mild infection.

The simple answer: The FDA last month OK’d extra doses of Pfizer’s original recipe after studies showed it still works well enough against delta -- and those doses could be rolled out right away. ...

https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...b4384ca5fcf03e

DJ Politics leave it up to Big Pharma to find solutions for the mess politics is creating....Politics is the problem !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-until-november?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-until-november?view=stream latest; UK cases-allready at very high level up 16,2%, deaths +11,4%, hospital cases +6,9%, testing +0,4%...no doubt some "politicians"will blame the unvaccinated even when they know most of them are children under 12 or people without proper legal status these "leaders" want to deport...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/further-communications/913004-reports-of-censorship-during-pandemic?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/further-communications/913004-reports-of-censorship-during-pandemic?view=stream latests, DJ Most experts still are able to use twitter, YouTube...(major problem is also a lot of "crazy people" do seem to have a lot of freedom to spread non-sense dis-info). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925768-cidrap-hospital-covid-patients-may-owe-thousands-as-insurance-waivers-end[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925768-cidrap-hospital-covid-patients-may-owe-thousands-as-insurance-waivers-endCOVID-19 patients hospitalized in 2021 could be on the hook for thousands of dollars in bills for hospital, physician, and paramedic care after insurance companies started charging members for these costs again, an analysis of 2020 US data today in JAMA Network Open suggests.
In 2020, most health insurers voluntarily waived copays, deductibles, and other cost sharing for hospitalized COVID-19 patients, but many did away with those waivers in early 2021.
The authors published an earlier version of the study on the medRxiv preprint server on May 30, 2021; since then, a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis has shown that 72% of the two largest insurers in each state and Washington, DC (102 plans total) ended their waivers by August. Another 10% said they would phase them out by the end of October.

DJ Some countries see public health insurance as a "socialist" item...In fact public healthcare insurance in many countries was started in the 19th century...you could even claim both the Romans and the Greek knew there was a need for public healthcare...Facing unpayable costs lots of people will NOT see a doctor-go on spreading the virus...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925767-cidrap-northern-states-report-more-covid-19-activity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925767-cidrap-northern-states-report-more-covid-19-activityNorthern states, including Vermont, Colorado, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Minnesota have the fastest rising COVID-19 case counts in the country, according to the New York Times' COVID-19 database.
Cold weather is likely driving more people inside in those states, leading to heightened virus transmission. The paper said a similar national trend was reported last year: Southern and western states saw summer spikes of the virus, while northern states recorded late fall surges.

DJ "New England" states in the US are doing best-in the US-for vaccinations...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925766-cidrap-uk-eastern-europe-battle-rising-covid[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925766-cidrap-uk-eastern-europe-battle-rising-covid ; Experts eye rising UK cases

The UK government reported 49,156 cases today, up more than 15% from the previous week and the highest number since mid-July when the country was still in lockdown. Case rates are highest in those ages 10 to 19 and lowest in adults ages 80 and older, according to the country's Health Security Agency (HSA) weekly update. Hospital admissions rose slightly and were highest in people age 85 and older.
In the HSA update, Incident Director William Welfare, MBBS, MPH, said case rates across the country are high are slowly rising. He urged people to take precautions as winter approaches, get vaccinated against COVID-19 and flu, and get tested if symptoms arise.
Amid the case surge may also be a COVID-19 mutation worth watching, according to Scott Gottlieb, MD, former US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) commissioner. Yesterday, Gottlieb noted on Twitter that the rise in the AY.4 version of the Delta (B1617.2) variant now makes up 8% of sequenced cases in the United Kingdom. He said that urgent research is needed to assess if the variant, which contains the S:Y145H mutation in the spike protein, is more transmissible or is more likely to evade natural- or vaccine-induced immunity.
"The variant has been in the UK since about July, but it has been slowly increasing in prevalence. There’s no clear indication that it's considerably more transmissible, but we should work to more quickly characterize these and other new variants. We have the tools," he said, adding that the situation is a reminder that the world needs a robust system to identify and characterize new variants, similar to current efforts to characterize flu viruses.

Eastern Europe developments

Russia yesterday reported a new single-day high, registering 34,303 new cases, according to the Associated Press. Deaths remained near the daily high of about 1,000. Still, some independent experts and data analysists are challenging Russia's officials totals, charging that cases are deaths are vastly undercounted as part of a strategy to downplay the crisis, according to the Washington Post.
The country is in its fourth surge and is struggling to get people vaccinated.
Other countries in eastern Europe are also experiencing rising cases, including Romania, which recently asked the European Union for help, and Hungary, where cases are rising in a fourth wave of infections. Also, Latvia today announced a 3-week lockdown, slated to begin Oct 21, to slow its spike in infections, according to Reuters.

DJ "There is no clear indication that it's considerably more transmissible"...it is only exploding to 8% of the UK cases within a few months...please !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925765-cidrap-covid-19-scan-sars-cov-2-dose-and-outcomes-asymptomatic-covid-19-and-viral-shedding-covid-vaccine-cash-lotteries[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925765-cidrap-covid-19-scan-sars-cov-2-dose-and-outcomes-asymptomatic-covid-19-and-viral-shedding-covid-vaccine-cash-lotteriesSeventy-five percent of asymptomatic COVID-19 outpatients had mean to high RNA viral loads, and 50.6% of those whose samples were tested with culture assays had live cultures, according to a study today in Scientific Reports.
The researchers say this indicates that COVID-19 asymptomatic adult outpatients could play a large role in perpetuating COVID outbreaks. The study was conducted before the much more transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant was circulating.

DJ The study was done before Delta means it was also done with limited vaccinations...It is very likely most of this pandemic is going via asymptomatic hosts...a lot of them children...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925764-cidrap-news-scan-more-drc-ebola-cases-resistant-icu-infections-in-europe-elbows-fists-and-mrsa-h5n6-avian-flu-in-china[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925764-cidrap-news-scan-more-drc-ebola-cases-resistant-icu-infections-in-europe-elbows-fists-and-mrsa-h5n6-avian-flu-in-china DJ; H5N6 is just one of the possible "extra" pandemics...on top of SARS-2/CoViD-19...Maybe China is finding more H5N6 cases because an increase of mass testing for CoViD is going on there...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/925759-3-environmental-doomsday-myths-debunked[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/925759-3-environmental-doomsday-myths-debunked linking to [url]https://fee.org/articles/3-environmental-doomsday-myths-debunked/[/url] or https://fee.org/articles/3-environmental-doomsday-myths-debunked/ ;

DJ-I love to be wrong in these kind of issues ! Had a look at the article; my opinion; garbage...same kind of denialism that is making this pandemic worse ! Yes better warning did reduce loss of live since 1920 due to weather disasters...but ignoring methane and exponential warming makes this article ......(to keep it polite). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924784-egypt-experiencing-4th-covid-wave[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/924784-egypt-experiencing-4th-covid-wave ; Egypt’s Ministry of Health and Population on Thursday reported 741 new coronavirus cases, 37 deaths, and 419 recoveries.

A total of 304,524 cases have been disclosed in Egypt, alongside 17,331 deaths and 256,886 recoveries.

The country’s fourth wave of the virus is in full force, with daily case figures ten times higher than what was recorded at the end of July.

Moreover, the Health Ministry has stated that official figures likely only represent 10 percent of actual cases...

DJ, If you would know the numbers "only represent 10% of actual cases" you only would have to take the numbers 10X...point is it may be (best guess I think) between 5 and 20 times the given numbers...If you go for the totals x10 Egypt at 3,045,240 cases and 173,310 deaths ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/925752-the-great-resignation-goes-global[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/925752-the-great-resignation-goes-global ; In social democratic Western Europe, a stronger safety net has led to somewhat less disruption in the workforce. But similar trends are at play: "Data collated by the OECD, which groups most of the advanced industrial democracies, shows that in its 38 member countries, about 20 million fewer people are in work than before the coronavirus struck," noted Politico Europe. "Of these, 14 million have exited the labor market and are classified as 'not working' and 'not looking for work.' Compared to 2019, 3 million more young people are not in employment, education or training."

A survey published in August found that a third of all Germany companies were reporting a dearth in skilled workers. That month, Detlef Scheele, head of the German Federal Employment Agency, told Süddeutsche Zeitung newspaper that the country would need to import 400,000 skilled workers a year to make up for shortfalls in a host of industries, from nursing care to green tech companies. Pandemic-era border closures and rising wages in Central and Eastern European countries have led to shortages of meatpackers and hospitality workers in countries like Germany and Denmark.

"Frankly, this is a pay issue," said Andrew Watt, head of the European economics unit at the Macroeconomic Policy Institute at the German trade unions' Hans Böckler Foundation, to Politico. "Wages will have to increase in these sectors to get people back into tough, low-paid jobs. That's no bad thing."

But the story gets a bit more uneven, and certainly more grim, in the developing world. In Latin America and the Caribbean, 26 million people lost their jobs last year amid pandemic-era shutdowns, according to the U.N.'s International Labour Organization. The vast majority of jobs that have returned are in the informal sector, an outcome that often means even lower pay and greater precarity in a region already defined by profound economic inequality.

DJ Shortages in shops are the outcome of processes on a global scale. Less migration of workers-due to the pandemic, higher prices for energy (in part because more demand for energy then expected, political reasons, but also keeping ventilation going=loss of warmth) will mean higher prices, (further) increase of social unrest...

-Dr. John Campbell with another look at "NIH and Ivermectin" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2F-Ml9gHnqA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2F-Ml9gHnqA ; Adults: Dosing Regimens The dose most commonly used in clinical trials is IVM 0.2–0.6 mg/kg PO given as a single dose or as a once-daily dose for up to 5 days. 

Adverse events Generally well tolerated Dizziness Pruritis GI effects (e.g., nausea, diarrhea) 

Neurological AEs have been reported when IVM has been used to treat parasitic diseases, but it is not clear whether these AEs were caused by IVM or the underlying conditions. 

DJ If Ivermectin (a.o.) could play a role in treatments-limiting severity of suffering-it would/should be more then welcome ! 

Dr. J.C. claimed Ivermectin did play a major role in India dealing with its Delta-explosion...Again-DJ-If Ivermectin would show so clearly it has some functions in this pandemic I would expect to see more proof...I would love it !!!!

-Music; We Can Work It Out - The Beatles - 1965 (?) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyclqo_AV2M[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyclqo_AV2M 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 19 2021 at 2:54am

DJ, 

-Part two;

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYh-8WHb2Qw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYh-8WHb2Qw Alexander Mercouris on how the US can react to facing the combination of both Russia AND China;

1-talks, accept Russia will not accept NATO moving further east, China will not accept US getting military in Taiwan-breaking with the "One China policy".

2-war, both with Russia and China

3-US collapse like the Soviet Union collapsed in the 80's by overstretching, spending to much on the military...

DJ I would add -4-Loss of Empire; NATO breaking up, EU going for trading with Russia, China, Iran...

Because the story is even more complex; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/washington-or-moscow-decision-time-erdogan-northern-syria[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/washington-or-moscow-decision-time-erdogan-northern-syria and [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/india-pakistan-kashmir.15300/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/india-pakistan-kashmir.15300/ ; DJ-I think "TIP"may be on its way...Turkey-Iran-Pakistan joining forces and ideas. Working with Russia and China. 

Turkey may give up support for "jihadi" rebels in NW Syria if the Kurdish "problem" is dealt with in NE Syria...Pakistan and China may "use" Taliban from Afghanistan getting into Kashmir...maybe even Russia is willing to help Kabul against (Saudi/US supported) IS...

Like I wrote in the earlier part; Ethiopia may now see Turkish, Iranian, Russian and Chinese help against US backed seperatists...

"TRIC" Turkey-Russia-Iran-China may join their naval power to "get more grip" on the West Pacific, Indian Ocean and Mediterranean...Limiting India, Japan, and if need be Australia...

What does this have to do with the pandemic ? 

The military, wars, are expensive...you can not spent "zillions" on war and keep up good basic public healthcare...

The US and UK made a choice for confrontation...so do Russia and Iran...outcome is a pandemic only getting worse...While the "world is getting even less safe" ...of course forget about any real climate goal...wich increases the pandemic risks even further...

-Some other points;

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/1-in-3-haredim-caught-coronavirus-double-the-national-average-study/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/1-in-3-haredim-caught-coronavirus-double-the-national-average-study/

Almost one in three ultra-Orthodox Israelis has been infected with the coronavirus, more than double the national average, according to a new study.

The Taub Center for Social Policy Studies in Israel, a nonpartisan think tank, crunched Health Ministry statistics, and found that from the start of the pandemic until September 2021, 13.7 percent of the Israeli population has been confirmed COVID positive.

The figure for the Haredi community, based on figures for the main population centers where Haredim are a majority, is 31%.

and [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-carrot-and-stick-palestinians-see-surge-of-vaccinations-in-west-bank-gaza/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-carrot-and-stick-palestinians-see-surge-of-vaccinations-in-west-bank-gaza/ ;

As a fourth wave of coronavirus loomed, Palestinian officials in the West Bank and Gaza began to utilize a system of both carrots and sticks in an attempt to encourage Palestinians to get vaccinated.

The result is far higher vaccination rates, rising across the board from 23 percent in late August to 50% vaccination for those over eligible to get a shot. Some areas, such as the West Bank governorates of Ramallah and Bethlehem, now see 80 and 70 percent of their eligible population vaccinated, respectively.


In the Palestinian Authority, which has limited self-rule in parts of the West Bank, officials put public sector employees who refused to get vaccinated on unpaid leave at the end of August. Anyone wishing to visit a school — including parents — was obligated to present a vaccine certificate. Travel between the West Bank and Jordan also became contingent on having been immunized.

DJ Blaming unvaccinated does not help anyone-a certain % of the unvaccinated are children-not even able to get a vaccine often. They allready pay a high price for a healthcrisis they did NOT start ! Getting unvaccinated taking vaccines DOES help ! [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925765-cidrap-covid-19-scan-sars-cov-2-dose-and-outcomes-asymptomatic-covid-19-and-viral-shedding-covid-vaccine-cash-lotteries[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/925765-cidrap-covid-19-scan-sars-cov-2-dose-and-outcomes-asymptomatic-covid-19-and-viral-shedding-covid-vaccine-cash-lotteries ; COVID-19 vaccine lotteries did not increase uptake, study finds

COVID-19 vaccine-related cash drawings in 19 states did not increase uptake, according to a research letter published late last week in JAMA Health Forum.
The researchers looked at daily state-level COVID-19 vaccination data before and after cash drawings announcements, as well as the data from the rest of the US states that didn't have those incentives, from Apr 28 to Jul 1. Vaccination appointments were widely available, and during the study period, 37.2 million first doses of a COVID vaccine were administered in the country, with 19.2 million of those in the states with cash drawings.
Adjusted regression estimated that the cash drawings were associated with –0.06 daily vaccination per 1,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI], –0.43 to 0.30). This finding was supported by the researchers' event-time estimates, which showed no statistical significance using both a conventional and novel model that better accounted for staggered announcements.

DJ Finding ways to get vaccine level up needs better, honest, communications. Yes there are risks in vaccines, yes a lot of hospital, ICU cases and deaths are fully vaccinated-but protection never was claimed to be 100% ! Also if in a country a high level of "older adults" are vaccinated their immune protection may not be that good...If 80% of the adults are vaccinated it may be not a major surprise over 50% of people ending up in hospital did at least have one vaccination...

Some people may even have been infected prior to vaccination. Vaccination protection could take 10-14 days (?) so even shortly after getting fully vaccinated you are not fully protected...Some people-again-do not develop good protection after vaccination at all...

-Trying to get some perspective on Delta-subvariants [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/delta?loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/delta?loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected 

A look at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Delta_variants is driving me crazy even further; 

As of August 2021, Delta have been subdivided in the Pango lineage designation system into variants from AY.1 to AY.38. However, there are no information on whether such classification correlate with biological characteristic changes of the virus.[42] It is said that, as of August 2021, AY.4 to AY.11 are predominant in the UK, AY.12 in Israel, AY.2, AY.3, AY.13, AY.14, AY.25 in the US, AY.20 in the US and Mexico, AY.15 in Canada, AY.16 in Kenya, AY.17 in Ireland and Northern Ireland, AY.19 in South Africa, AY.21 in Italy and Switzerland, AY.22 in Portugal, AY.24 in Indonesia, and AY.23 in Indonesia, Singapore, Japan, and South Korea.[43]

As of 30 August 2021, the AY.4 variant accounted for approximately 59% of cases in the United States.

DJ [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports on Delta/B.1.617.2 has the number of sub-variants going allready up to (AY.)41...with some of the AY. numbers also "sub-numbers" (so beside AY.7 there is also AY.7.1 and AY.7.2...). Most problems may be caused by the Delta sub-variants AY.3 (with also #.1) and AY.4-going all the way up to AY.4.5....

As far as I know you also have 

B.1.616

B.1.620 [url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/variants-concern both these variants are not detected the last months (maybe due to lack of testing, further mutations-renaming...)

and B.1.630...DJ-I was hoping someone wanted to write 620...made a mistake but no ! Sorry [url]https://www.fingerlakes1.com/2021/10/16/another-covid-19-variant-discovered-in-u-s-this-one-called-b-1-630/[/url] or https://www.fingerlakes1.com/2021/10/16/another-covid-19-variant-discovered-in-u-s-this-one-called-b-1-630/

A new strain of COVID-19 was discovered in the United States, this one in Louisiana.

The variant, called B.1.630, was found in two samples from Baton Rouge.

Experts say there is no reason to be concerned.

The will continue to monitor this variant, which was discovered in March of 2021.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Mu_variant =B.1.621 

The B.1.621 lineage has a sublineage, labeled B.1.621.1 under the PANGO nomenclature, which has already been detected in more than 20 countries worldwide.[5]

Under the simplified naming scheme proposed by the World Health Organization, B.1.621 was labeled "Mu variant", and was considered a variant of interest (VOI), but not yet a variant of concern.[1]

DJ Of course it had to have a "sublineage"...

Maybe major point here is any idea of this virus running out of variants is talking non-sense...

There is every reason to be very concerned on how variants keep showing up...with hardly any action to decrease spread in most countries...A lot of them even opening up further...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 19 2021 at 9:58pm

DJ, 

A few remarks;

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/19/1100-children-taken-homes-benefits-scandal-victims[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/19/1100-children-taken-homes-benefits-scandal-victims Is showing a very serious Dutch problem, most likely also seen in other countries but maybe the Dutch could be champions in it...Making laws that complicated nobody any longer has an indea of what the rule is...even legal fights may not give clear answers...From childcare benefits to compensation for earthquakes due to gas exploration in the north of NL. 

The NL government/politics are very good in providing unworkable answers...many of the rules made by the central government have to be used by municipalities...so if things go wrong the central government can blame someone else...And things have to go wrong ! Often ruining people for the rest of their live...

So "trust in NL government is not very good"...this pandemic is making matters even worse...we are now in our fifth (?) wave...With as good as no restrictions, booster vaccines in spring, limited testing etc...

Another note on the UK healthcrisis; There is another new UK variant pushing UK numbers up...But without "freedom day" UK numbers would not have gone up that fast...maybe we would not have seen another UK-Delta-variant...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

UK reporting tuesday october 19-43,738 new cases, 223 deaths, that number on monday was 49,018 new cases, 45 deaths...there may be "some reporting issues"...trend for UK cases +18% (311,665 cases this week, 263,748 cases last week). For UK deaths +15% (this week 908, last week 792). In total 8,5 million people tested positive in the UK out of a population of 68,4 million. 

In % 12,5% of the UK so far tested positive, 0,2% of the UK population died from Covid...with winter on its way-cases this high UK may face 0,5%+ of its population dead by march 1 ? 

NL cases 3,895 reported yesterday "with technical problems", real number 4,000+...13 deaths...Trends cases +45% (this week 25,671, last week 17,759) deaths +100% (this week 48, last week 24). So far 12% of NL population did test positive, 0,1% of the Dutch population died...

Global reported cases 412,754, deaths 7,209...trends cases -1% (!!!!!) deaths -3% (!!!!!!), 91 countries reporting increase of cases (out of 209). 

Top 3 for yesterday cases US 71,809, UK 43,738, Russia 33,740. Deaths US 1,563, Russia 1,015, Romania 561...

Russia trends cases +16%, deaths +5% so far Russia reported 5,5% of its population tested positive, 0,15% died...To put those numbers in perspective US did see 13,8% of its population testing positive, 0,22% die from CoViD...

Russia and UK both report deaths 28 days after a positive test as CoViD deaths...I find that 4 week criterium a bit strange...NL reported 18,263 CoViD deaths-but if you include people that died-or are dying-in care centers you can double that number-must be over 35,000 by now...

If you need good news Greenland, Vatican City, Samoa still 0 deaths (per million)...China claiming 3 deaths per million...Laos, New Zealand 6 dpm, Taiwan 35, South Korea 52...

-Flutrackers, twitter etc;

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculatorHere we go again! The U.K. is a leader on COVID-19 infections & deaths. Worrying trend as the U.K. has been a bigger export of variants and may fuel a new wave of infections in commonwealth countries. We pledge the U.K to keep infections under control as this may affect the world.

DJ One could claim the Alfa-UK/Kent variant starting its "rise"a year ago may have been imported from "the continent". The present Delta sub-variant is "Made in Britain"...

This pandemic I've dealt with a lot of experts and a lot of quacks. I've noticed genuine experts tend to acknowledge there are opinions and positions they don't personally hold but which are nevertheless reasonable. Quacks paint everybody they disagree with as wrong and dumb.

DJ I am NOT an expert, do not want to be "objective or neutral" and see this pandemic as part of a much bigger crisis...

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp"SARS-CoV-2 infection causes immunodeficiency in recovered patients by downregulating CD19 expression in B cells via enhancing B-cell metabolism"

DJ With link [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-021-00749-3[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41392-021-00749-3 ;

There have been claims a first infection may weaken immunity, so a second infection would be more severe...This goes against an idea of "natural immunity"...As far as I understand and did read the study it gives a mixed picture...Iran statistics indicate a very high number of reinfections...some people getting CoViD over 3 times....

DJ-The UK has a high % of vaccinated. Vaccination does not offer long lasting high level protection against infection (but so far limited most severe cases ). One of the major concerns should be a variant that is evading immunity and able to infect hosts over and over again...

In my (very limited, non-expert) view "Delta" has become a "Variant Of High Consequence" has gone beyond "Variant Of Concern"...

[url]https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/updates[/url] or https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/updates

Assigning AY.4.2

Because lineage-defining mutations of AY.4.2, including Y145H, are affected by amplicon dropout, we have used Pangolin in Usher mode with the latest decision tree, and supplemented it with predictions of AY.4.2 from an alternative approach to increase sensitivity.

DJ The Delta/UK subvariant behind the increase of UK cases is AY.4.2...but looking at [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected they show zero cases...???? So a look at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant

Delta with K417N corresponds to lineages AY.1 and AY.2[45] and has been nicknamed "Delta plus" or "Nepal variant".[46] It has the K417N mutation,[47] which is also present in the Beta variant.[48] The exchange at position 417 is a lysine-to-asparagine substitution.[49]

As of mid-October 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for a cumulative prevalence of approximately 5% in the United States, and 2% worldwide.[50] In mid-October the Ay.4.2 Delta sublineage was expanding in England, and being monitored and assessed. It contains mutations A222V and Y145H in its spike protein, not considered of particular concern. It has been suggested that Ay.4.2 might be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant, but this would not lead to a large increase in cases.[51]

DJ 10-15% more transmissible=no large increase of cases...with UK trends for cases +18%....Source is [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/fears-grow-in-england-over-rise-of-new-covid-delta-variant[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/19/fears-grow-in-england-over-rise-of-new-covid-delta-variant

Dr Jeffrey Barrett, the director of the Covid-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in Cambridge, and Prof Francois Balloux, the director of the University College London Genetics Institute, have suggested AY.4.2 could be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant.

However, they urged caution. “Britain is the only country in which it has taken off in this way and I still would not rule out its growth being a chance demographic event,” Balloux told the FT.

Balloux told the Guardian the new variant was unlikely to be behind the recent rise in cases.

“Its potential higher transmissibility could at this stage only explain a tiny fraction of additional cases,” he said. “It’s around 10% frequency [now], and assuming it may be 10% more transmissible, that would only explain an additional 1% extra infections [every five or so days].”

DJ UK 67,7% of all of the population fully vaccinated....Here in NL [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/20/lockdown-expected-winter-outbreak-team-chair[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/20/lockdown-expected-winter-outbreak-team-chairThe Netherlands has a high vaccination rate; 85 percent of the population has had at least the first shot.

DJ [url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/83.2% of people aged 18 and over have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. 86.9% of people in this age group have had at least one vaccine dose.

The problem is even with such a high level of vaccinations NL cases are going up fast...[url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/positief-geteste-mensen .....A lot of rise in care centers...[url]https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/varianten[/url] or https://coronadashboard.government.nl/landelijk/varianten Delta = 100% of cases...but more info on what kind of Delta variant is increasing maybe can be found at [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ ??? No-Just "Delta"....

I think this may indicate a problem in reporting of sub-variants of Delta...Is it-in general-organized to look for new variants, NOT for sub-variants inside the dominant Delta variant ???? Since sequencing still takes time-reporting sub-variants may be out of date ?

I am willing to believe most of the increase of UK cases is because of limited vaccinations and hardly any restrictions...The increase of AY.4.2 may not mean it is that much worse yet ???? It may be a proces in Delta-variant cases; some variants inside Delta increase, others decrease...maybe also related to changes on who is getting infected and spreading the virus (school-age, often not vaccinated-their parents/teachers, now spreading to grandparents, supermarkets ???)

Of course Eastern Europe may be facing other (sub)variants...Russia, Romania, Poland, Ukraine all report strong increases...Most likely Delta (????) increasing due to low vaccination rates...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics showing (highest of mentioned numbers-will be under reporting...) Romania detecting 504 Delta cases, Bulgaria 783, Ukraine (just) 34, Estonia 460, Slovakia 1,360, Croatia 1,434, Lithuania 3,911, Poland 1,690, Finland 4,217, Russia 2,469...

My impression is testing/sequencing in some parts of Eastern Europe is that bad we can not rule out even other variants are increasing-but just are missed...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/delta?loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected#geographic[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/delta?loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected#geographic puts Russia Delta=39% of cases....US at 46%...NL at 33%.......also not helping a lot...

My impression is several (sub)variants-getting room due to limited vaccination protection-may be increasing and may make this coming wave even worse...

Just a reminder-protection of vaccines decreases over time and with age...So per 1,000 people 80% vaccination=800 people getting 80% protection (for whatever risk...) makes "just" 640 protected...(against that risk...protection against severe disease/ICU may be better, against infection may be lower...). 

Flutrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925898-bmc-infect-dis-recurrent-sars-cov-2-rna-positivity-and-prolonged-viral-shedding-in-a-patient-with-covid-19-a-case-report[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/925898-bmc-infect-dis-recurrent-sars-cov-2-rna-positivity-and-prolonged-viral-shedding-in-a-patient-with-covid-19-a-case-report ; Abstract

Background: The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus remains a major threat to public health. At present, it is recommended that patients with known or suspected COVID-19 undergo quarantine or medical observation for 14 days. However, recurrent SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity and prolonged viral shedding have been documented in convalescent COVID-19 patients, complicating efforts to control viral spread and ensure patient recovery.
Case presentation: We report the case of a patient who experienced two recurrent episodes of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and IgM positivity and viral shedding over 60 days during hospitalization.
Conclusions: This case report demonstrates that relapses of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and IgM positivity may occur even after COVID-19 symptoms have resolved, possibly as a consequence of prolonged viral shedding rather than re-infection.

DJ To make things even more complex; reinfection could be NOT reinfection but the virus sticking in the body and showing up again...(besides that there are indications SEVERAL (sub)variants may be in several parts of the body...If you would take samples from the lungs one lung may test positive for AY.4.2 the other for another (sub) variant...and maybe upper respitory testing would not find a thing ???)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925861-mdh-30-of-marylanders-who-died-of-covid-related-illness-over-6-weeks-between-sept-1-and-oct-15-were-fully-vaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925861-mdh-30-of-marylanders-who-died-of-covid-related-illness-over-6-weeks-between-sept-1-and-oct-15-were-fully-vaccinated ; According to the Maryland Department of Health, 30% of those who have died from COVID-related illnesses, between Sept. 1 and Oct.15, were fully vaccinated.

In all, 649 people died in that time frame, which means, according to MDH, that 195 of those deaths were people who received the vaccine.

The health department said many of those people who died also had other health conditions that made them more vulnerable.

Officials released a statement writing, "This further underscores our mission to maintain immunity by urging eligible Marylanders to get their booster shots."

DJ If boosters every 6-9 months would help to keep cases/deaths/long CoVid numbers down that would be welcome-however this may be an optimistic scenario...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/925860-children-born-during-pandemic-have-significantly-lower-iqs-us-study-finds[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-melissa-hein-forum-for-psychological-research-and-development/925860-children-born-during-pandemic-have-significantly-lower-iqs-us-study-findsIn the decade preceding the pandemic, the mean IQ score on standardised tests for children aged between three months and three years of age hovered around 100, but for children born during the pandemic that number tumbled to 78, according to the analysis, which is yet to be peer-reviewed.

“It’s not subtle by any stretch,” said Deoni. “You don’t typically see things like that, outside of major cognitive disorders.”

The study included 672 children from the state of Rhode Island. Of these, 188 were born after July 2020 and 308 were born prior to January 2019, while 176 were born between January 2019 and March 2020. The children included in the study were born full-term, had no developmental disabilities and were mostly white.

Those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds fared worse in the tests, the researchers found.

The biggest reason behind the falling scores is likely the lack of stimulation and interaction at home, said Deoni. “Parents are stressed and frazzled … that interaction the child would normally get has decreased substantially.”...

DJ So stimulation and interaction need extra attention...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925856-delta-plus-sub-variant-possibly-more-contagious-than-delta-found-in-these-countries[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/925856-delta-plus-sub-variant-possibly-more-contagious-than-delta-found-in-these-countries ;The Delta AY.4.2 COVID sub-variant, which has sparked interest recently due to its rise in the U.K., has been found around the world in 29 countries.

The data, from the GISAID virus reporting database and collected and displayed by Outbreak.Info, shows the variant is almost totally limited to the U.K. but that cases have been reported in the U.S., Canada, Australia, and parts of western Europe.

Of the 15,459 AY.4.2 cases to have been sequenced worldwide from October 18, some 14,705 were from the U.K. The country with the next highest prevalence is Romania, followed by Poland, Ireland, and then Bangladesh.

https://www.newsweek.com/delta-plus-...ay-4-2-1640444

DJ...I will try to keep an eye on Outbreak.Info...UK trend cases +18%, Romania +11%, Poland +56%, Ireland +27%, Bangladesh -31% ...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925778-delta-ay-sub-variant-which-requires-urgent-research-found-in-these-u-s-states[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/925778-delta-ay-sub-variant-which-requires-urgent-research-found-in-these-u-s-states ; AY.4 was found in 1% of the samples tested from Maharashtra in April as part of the Indian Covid-19 Genome Surveillance. Its proportion increased to 2% in July and 44% in August, The Times of India said in its report.

The report added that the Delta (B.1.617.2) was found in 111 (36%) of the 308 samples analysed from August, adding AY.4 was found in 137 samples (44%) of these.

https://news.abplive.com/health/delt...august-1483462

-

The British government is observing a new subspecies of the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. As a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday said the government is monitoring the AY.4.2 variant “very closely”. It is still unclear whether the new subspecies will spread faster. The government will “not hesitate to take action if necessary” . The sub-variant has only appeared sporadically outside of Great Britain in the USA and Denmark.

https://www.infrastructurene.ws/2021...delta-variant/

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925843-first-case-of-new-delta-mutation-ay4-2-diagnosed-in-israel[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925843-first-case-of-new-delta-mutation-ay4-2-diagnosed-in-israel ; A subvariant of the Delta coronavirus mutation raising alarm bells in the United Kingdom has been found in a child who entered Israel from Moldova, health officials said Tuesday.

The AY4.2 is being closely monitored by officials in the UK, and others have called for urgent research into the subvariant, though health officials say there is no evidence yet that it is driving an uptick in coronavirus cases in some places.

According to reports in Hebrew media, the subvariant was found for the first time in Israel in an 11-year-old boy who entered the country from Moldova. He was flagged at the airport and sent into isolation, Channel 12 news reported.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/first-...sed-in-israel/

DJ; In one country limited vaccinations may result in an increase of cases-with that also a "coincidental" increase of a sub-variant that went up-simply because cases increased...However if that same Delta-AY4.2 is increasing in several countries it gets more alarming...Even if the detected mutations in itself would not explain the increase...(maybe by now host-immunity did change ? Resulting in more reinfections with first infections missed...and immune response resulting in worse healthissues-NOT (enough) natural immunity ???)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925841-china-8-in-a-tour-group-from-shanghai-infected-with-covid-19-and-traveled-to-5-provinces-many-spots-closed-fogging-testing-the-battle-of-the-epidemic-has-begun-again-october-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925841-china-8-in-a-tour-group-from-shanghai-infected-with-covid-19-and-traveled-to-5-provinces-many-spots-closed-fogging-testing-the-battle-of-the-epidemic-has-begun-again-october-19-2021 ; Things must start with a couple in Shanghai.
At 8 o'clock on October 9, the couple took flight CA1216 from Shanghai Pudong Airport, arrived at Xi'an Xianyang International Airport at 10:40, and transferred to flight MU9649 to Zhangye City, Gansu Province at 13:54.
From October 9th to 15th, travel by car in Gansu and Inner Mongolia.
At 9 o'clock on October 15th, two people took the initiative to conduct a nucleic acid test at Jiayuguan Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital. The hospital conducted a 10:1 mixed test according to the normalized test requirements.
After sampling, the two returned to the hotel to check out and proceed to Jiayuguan Airport.
Check in at 13:38 with a negative nucleic acid test certificate from the People's Hospital of Ejina Banner within 48 hours, health code green code, and itinerary code without medium-to-high-risk travel history, and arrive in Xi'an at 15:25 on the flight.
At 17:30 on October 15th, the result of the 10:1 mixed test in the Municipal Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine was suspiciously positive, so 10 people were contacted and quickly went to the hospital for sampling and re-examination, but 2 people had already arrived in Xi'an.
On October 17, I received an "Information Letter" from the Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The initial nucleic acid test result was positive at 17:00 on October 16.
Just as everyone prayed and hoped that no more confirmed cases would appear, Shaanxi announced six new confirmed cases.

DJ Delta was/is harder to contain in Australia, New Zealand, China...Delta AY.4.2 introduction may show if it is even harder to contain...Now it is open what variant the Shanghai couple was infected with...(most likely Delta...but what sub-type ? Also it may be yet another Delta subtype...we are over 41 AY-Delta subtypes by now...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus latest; I was in a medical clinic waiting room yesterday. I mentioned this seems a good place to pick up trends before they hit the news. People were sick there when the last wave was building, then all were well the next month as the curve was going down but before the stats really showed a steady improvement. Now a couple of months later, people are still physically well but angry, really angry - about the mandates.

One of the receptionists was talking with an older man. She said at the last hospital system she worked at, 40-60% of the Covid patients who were coming in sick had been fully vaccinated. Neither she nor the man trusted assurances that the vaccine was preventing serious illnesses. The man wanted more detail about that. He was a veteran who had been sprayed with Agent Orange and he and the receptionist talked about the rotten way the VA is gaslighting veterans about their illnesses. (She had worked there, too.)

The receptionist said that at the last hospital system she worked at, a lot of medical staff was avoiding the vaccine. But the one she was at currently does mandate it so she got one. She said she was very ill for a full week. She was glad her husband's employer did not mandate it.

There was also a lot of anger about the pandemic at a lab I was at recently, too. More free floating anger about how messed up the medical system is right now. People seem ready to snap.

DJ We soon may be two years+ in this pandemic-with indications things are getting (much) worse...not better..."Social media" may get trusted more then "official news/experts"....I believe in being as honest as can be...underlining that we still do not know enough of the virus...To much communication has been either over-optimistic or anti-vax/pseudo political...

Good communications are essential in dealing with any crisis...but during this pandemic communications have been bad...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E89taTH86_s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E89taTH86_s on immunity...Dr.J.C. still claiming "natural immunity" as a major factor...may come up with studies from 2020 that did not see variants...

It is nice, very welcome US cases are going down...but simply looking at statistics for US trends, cases -14%, deaths -8% should indicate the US downward trend may be over soon...

Dr.J.C. is not yet talking about Delta-UK subvariant AY4.2...Both Flutrackers and twitter does...and I think there is enough reason for that...very sad-Delta may be getting worse !!!

Tomorrow evening there will be a football/soccer match here in Arnhem between local "Vitesse" and Tottenham Hotspur from London-UK...We allready see an increase of cases in this region...The 1,000 or so London supporters may bring the AY4.2 variant if it was not allready here...There will be 28,000 supporters-no social distance, masks etc..."testing before entrence" and vaccine passports are supposed to offer protection...

[url]https://deadline.com/2021/10/delta-plus-ay-4-2-most-infectious-covid-variant-1234858486/[/url] or https://deadline.com/2021/10/delta-plus-ay-4-2-most-infectious-covid-variant-1234858486/ DJ If Delta R0 was between 5,5 and 6,5 an increase of 10% would push it to between 6 and 7...If-as some claim-Delta R0 was between 5 and 8 it pushes the R0 even up to R0 possibly close to 9....meaning 1 person can infect 9 others...within 3-5 days...(As far as I understand-the highest rise in R0 will be in unvaccinated hosts living/working close together indoors...). 

-Music; Love the lyrics; "If Paradise Is Half As Nice As Heaven That You Take Me To, Who Needs Paradise - I rather Have You !" - Amen Corner 1968... [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foTwWg1CyWU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=foTwWg1CyWU  


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 20 2021 at 9:26pm

DJ, 

-Numbers; here in NL at least 16 cases of Delta AY.4.2 have been detected-since this new UK variant showed up with specific mutations and a strong increase of cases some specialists started to look at how many of those sub-variants they could find..that far it all was labelled "Delta"...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table sad...global cases +0,1% deaths only -0,3%...If this AY.4.2 mutation is a main reason for (global) increase is still not very clear...The mutations they detected could increase infectivity with possibly 10-15%....

Yet; UK reporting 49,139 new cases, 179 deaths on october 20-wednesday...trends cases +19%, deaths +21%. US cases still -14%, deaths +5%, the US reporting 80,425 new cases, 2,005 deaths....

Russia "only" reporting 34,073 new cases-+17%, 1,028 deaths +5%. For cases Turkey is #4, 29,760 -4%, Ukraine at #5 with 18,912 new cases...+5%. 

Deaths has Ukraine at #3 with 495 deaths +16%, #4 is Mexico 446 deaths -25%, at #5 Romania reporting 414 deaths...+19%...

In total 90 countries reporting an increase of cases. Increase in deaths in 77 countries. The total reported new global cases 452,993, and 7,494 new deaths...Three "regions" reporting increase of cases; Europe cases +17%, deaths +11%, South America cases +4%, deaths +10%, Oceania cases +0,5% deaths -10%...

In South America an increase of cases in Paraguay with +106% jumps out...Chile +51%, Argentina +35%, Uruguay +27%, Bolivia +21%...even Brazil +3%...

The increase in western Europe (NL+35%, Germany +6%) may have a different reason/variant than the increase in Eastern Europe, South America...Lack of restrictions...acting as if the pandemic was over while in fact it was getting worse, will be a major factor.

-Flutrackers, Twitter etc; 

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B




DJ -link [url]https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/19/1047411856/the-great-vaccine-bake-off-has-begun?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social[/url] or https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/10/19/1047411856/the-great-vaccine-bake-off-has-begun?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social Not sharing info out of greed during an ongoing global health crisis is criminal ! Why do politics keep failing ? AY4.2 is not the reason the U.K. is in this position. The reason is July 22nd and complete removal of mitigations are a time when transmission was very high. Had transmission been low then it *might* have worked if combined with child vaccinat

The UK and NL going hand in hand. New mutations aside, this has stronger correlations with letting basic measures go, way too fast. We did see this coming, no excuses this time. Bring at least basic measures back.
Citeer Twee

t



Danny Altmann

@Daltmann10
 ·
UK doctors call for return of Covid restrictions; new mutation watched https://cnbc.com/2021/10/20/uk-doctors-call-for-return-of-covid-restrictions-new-mutation-watched.html

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AY4.2 is not the reason the U.K. is in this position. The reason is July 22nd and complete removal of mitigations are a time when transmission was very high. Had transmission been low then it *might* have worked if combined with child vaccination.
Citeer Tweet



DrElisabetta

@ViralRNA
 ·
“the message needs to be, let’s stop worrying about mutations and worry about the fact we have uncontrolled transmission in the UK” @GuptaR_lab 
The UK and NL going hand in hand. New mutations aside, this has stronger correlations with letting basic measures go, way too fast. We did see this coming, no excuses this time. Bring at least basic measures back.
Citeer Tweet



Danny Altmann

@Daltmann10
 ·
UK doctors call for return of Covid restrictions; new mutation watched https://cnbc.com/2021/10/20/uk-doctors-call-for-return-of-covid-restrictions-new-mutation-watched.html

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AY4.2 is not the reason the U.K. is in this position. The reason is July 22nd and complete removal of mitigations are a time when transmission was very high. Had transmission been low then it *might* have worked if combined with child vaccination.
The UK and NL going hand in hand. New mutations aside, this has stronger correlations with letting basic measures go, way too fast. We did see this coming, no excuses this time. Bring at least basic measures back.
Citeer Tweet



Danny Altmann

@Daltmann10
 ·
UK doctors call for return of Covid restrictions; new mutation watched https://cnbc.com/2021/10/20/uk-doctors-call-for-return-of-covid-restrictions-new-mutation-watched.html

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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 20 2021 at 9:36pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2021 at 12:27am

DJ-Did I wreck scenario's ?????

Something seems to have gone wrong...? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 21 2021 at 10:11pm

DJ,

Two tech-issues here...Part of a tweet I posted ended up UNDER this page somehow...also some of the pages look like they are "smart-phone-size" ...hope problems somehow solve themselves...

-numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] trends cases +1%, deaths -2% (at the moment of writing...numbers get updated all day...did see deaths -0,2% as well). Global trend seems to be cases are going up again, deaths will start increasing soon as well...This will be the fifth global wave...

wave 1-early 2020, over by summer, wave 2 UK-Alfa starting in october 2020. Due to vaccines cases going down spring 2021...wave 3 started in march-april in India...Delta..June/summer, more restrictions, vaccines did bring cases down again...But lifting those restrictions and limited vaccine protection...if 80% of the population takes a vaccine that offers 80% protection only 64% protection level (80% of 100=80, 80% of 80=64...)...

Reality is vaccines offer even less protection against infection, and 1/3 of global population is fully vaccinated...(and that is only in adults ???). 

So vaccine protection against infection 60% with 60% of population vaccinated would make 60% of 100(%) =60, 60% of 60=36%....

Delta variant R0 between 5 and 8, or 5,5 and 6,5....and now we may be facing the AY.4.2 UK variant with a R0 of +10/15%....

"Old" Delta itself was not controlable with only vaccines, this new (new) Delta+ variant could be undoing something of 30-40% of the gains we made with the vaccinations...

With vaccine protection less effective in the more vulnarable we need much more restrictions fast...

Reality, yesterday there was a footblall match here in Arnhem between London-Tottenham Hotspurs and Arnhem-Vitesse with almost 28,000 supporters sitting close upon eachother...yes they have vaccinationpassports etc..Is that effective enough ? NO!!!

Two good things Vitesse did win, and due to bad weather only a few hundred London supporters came to the match-so less transport of variants...But it is crazy you have these kinds of events...and then this [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bIsn5uiABg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bIsn5uiABg concerts with 30,000+ visitors...(vaccinepassports will limit numbers, young age visitors...but still !)

So a look at some countries;

UK 52,009 new cases, 115 deaths on thursday october 21, cases +19%, deaths +12%

NL cases 5,195, 7 deaths, cases +37%, deaths +58% (77 last week, 90 this week...)

US doing still not that bad 80,835 new cases, 1,428 deaths cases -15%, deaths -2%

Russia 36,339 new cases, 1,036 deaths...trends cases +17%, deaths +5%...(6,766 last week-this week 7.074).

At least Russia is going for some restrictions...Ukraine is #3 in deaths (US, Russia #1 and #2) with 546 deaths, Brazil still at #4 with 461 deaths, Romania reporting 448...

I would have loved "this pandemic over in 30 days"...but given the developments we need a lot of steps to even dream of getting out of this pandemic in 2022...!

Global cases 461,290 with 7,194 deaths reported...92 countries reporting increase of cases (at #92 is China cases +0,7%). There are 79 countries reporting an increase of deaths...with another 31 at 0% , Germany at position 112 with deaths -1%...

So the outlook...some factors;

-Vaccines still do a good job against severe disease and death-get vaccinated if you can !!! A lot of people would love to get vaccinated but can not get vaccinated !!!!

-Vaccines may not offer enough long term protection to get us out of this pandemic. 

-Variants develop faster than vaccines...so mutations in the now dominant Delta variant, possibly some other variants (or mutations in variants) are getting better in undoing the vaccine protection...Global protection level may be around 30% (fully vaccinated) getting 60% (?) protection against infection within weeks after vaccination...but that level drops of high speed...

So worldwide maybe 3 billion people did get vaccinated-60% protection against infection is 1,8 billion...but of them maybe 50% did get the vaccine 6 monts ago-for this calculation 0,9 billion 60% protection, the other hal 30% protection...If Delta AY.4.2 =15% more infectious and possibly allready spreading in most parts of the globe (South America cases +6%, Europe cases +20%) we need to increase vaccinations with +15% to keep up with Delta, increase with 10% extra to deal with waning vaccine immunity...

-New vaccines, new ways of vaccinations (nasal spray, a pill) are needed to have more effective boosters and ways to vaccinate at +1 billion people per month (and revaccinate them after 6 months...). 

-Hospitals/healthcare so far did see 80,000 to 180,000 HCW-ers die in this pandemic according to the WHO...Millions may have stopped working in healthcare because high risk, very hard-confronting-work, low pay and a loosing battle...

-Several authorities warn we are moving to a disaster-healthcrisis...DJ-I think a million deaths per month soon may be even optimistic...

-Flutrackers latest/twitter etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926023-cidrap-who-calls-for-health-worker-protection-against-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926023-cidrap-who-calls-for-health-worker-protection-against-covid-19 ; Health worker vaccination lags in poorer nations

The call for better protection for health workers comes in the wake of data from a new WHO working paper that estimates 80,000 to 180,000 health workers died from COVID-19 in the first 17 months of the pandemic. The WHO-led urgent call for action was also backed by partner groups, such as the Frontline Health Workers Coalition, the International Council of Nurses, and the World Medical Association.


At today's briefing, Tedros said the estimate shows why health workers are prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination.
He added that while data from 119 countries shows two in five healthcare workers are fully vaccinated, the average masks a wide difference across regions and economic groups. In Africa, for example, less than 1 in 10 health workers are fully vaccinated, compare to 80% vaccination among their peers in high-income countries, Tedros said.


In their call for action, the groups also urged countries to improve tracking and reporting of infections and deaths in health workers and ensure that they are supported with safe working conditions and compensation.

DJ The speed in wich care workers leave their jobs due to health, safer jobs elsewhere, better hours/pay should be alarming politics. ICU capacity in many countries may be 20% less then last year due to staff problems...with winter still on its way...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926022-cidrap-report-calls-for-broader-us-effort-against-antimicrobial-resistance[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926022-cidrap-report-calls-for-broader-us-effort-against-antimicrobial-resistanceAddressing the challenge of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and ensuring the continued effectiveness of the drugs that underpin modern medicine is going to require a broad effort that cuts across scientific disciplines, medical specialties, and government agencies, according to new report from the National Academies of Science, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM).

The congressionally mandated reported, produced by a committee of experts from across the human, animal, and environmental health sectors, concludes that AMR is a "complex web of related problems" that will require a One Health response that addresses misuse and overuse of antibiotics in human medicine and veterinary medicine and the little-understood role that the environment plays.

While ensuring a strong pipeline of new antibiotics is a key element of the effort to combat AMR, a multisectoral effort to preserve the effectiveness of current antibiotics through antibiotic stewardship, surveillance, diagnostic innovation, and infection prevention should be a cornerstone, the report says. And the US role in addressing AMR will have to extend beyond its borders.

"The evolutionary basis of antimicrobial resistance dictates that there will be no magic bullets or simple solutions," committee chair Guy Palmer, DVM, PhD, a professor of pathology and infectious diseases at Washington State University, wrote in the preface to the report. "Ensuring that modern medicine can continue to rely on effective antibiotics will require continual innovation and process improvement."

DJ We can NOT go on the way we live !!!! We need less farm-animals (both for climate as for bio-hazards), much less travel (spreading diseases) and much better monitoring...A next pandemic is just around the corner !

We did not build a house on ice but a mega-city---and the ice is melting !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/926017-pentagon-white-house-intelligence-agencies-issue-reports-warning-climate-change-threatens-global-security[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/926017-pentagon-white-house-intelligence-agencies-issue-reports-warning-climate-change-threatens-global-security ; As the United States and nations around the world struggle to blunt the effects of rising temperatures and extreme weather, sweeping assessments released Thursday by the White House, U.S. intelligence community and Pentagon conclude that climate change will exacerbate long-standing threats to global security.

Together, the reports show a deepening concern within the U.S. security establishment that the shifts unleashed by climate change can reshape U.S. strategic interests, offer new opportunities to rivals such as China, and increase instability in nuclear states such as North Korea and Pakistan. They come as world leaders prepare to gather in Glasgow next month for a set of crucial climate talks.

The new National Intelligence Estimate on climate, a first-of-its kind document by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, builds on other grim warnings from national security officials about how a changing climate could upend societies and topple governments.

DJ Reality-check; All of the main politics are going for "small steps" "going for the Moon when we need to go to Pluto"...This pandemic is part of a much bigger problem, you can NOT solve climate collapse without fundamental changes in global economy !!!

See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/926015-cop26-document-leak-reveals-nations-lobbying-to-change-key-climate-report[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/926015-cop26-document-leak-reveals-nations-lobbying-to-change-key-climate-report ;

A huge leak of documents seen by BBC News shows how countries are trying to change a crucial scientific report on how to tackle climate change.

The leak reveals Saudi Arabia, Japan and Australia are among countries asking the UN to play down the need to move rapidly away from fossil fuels.

It also shows some wealthy nations are questioning paying more to poorer states to move to greener technologies.

This "lobbying" raises questions for the COP26 climate summit in November.

The leak reveals countries pushing back on UN recommendations for action and comes just days before they will be asked at the summit to make significant commitments to slow down climate change and keep global warming to 1.5 degrees.

The leaked documents consist of more than 32,000 submissions made by governments, companies and other interested parties to the team of scientists compiling a UN report designed to bring together the best scientific evidence on how to tackle climate change.

These reports are used by governments to decide what action is needed to tackle climate change, and the latest will be a crucial input to negotiations at the Glasgow conference.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58982445

DJ The only way to claim we can keep temperatures below 1,5C+ is changing the baseline to somewhere in the 20th century...We may be only doing 10% of what is needed and even that seems to be to much for some countries...Learning the hard way...but it is the poor that pay...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/926014-year-long-covid-19-infection-reveals-within-host-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-in-a-patient-with-b-cell-depletion-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/926014-year-long-covid-19-infection-reveals-within-host-evolution-of-sars-cov-2-in-a-patient-with-b-cell-depletion-preprint ; Summary: We report an immunocompromised patient with persistent symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection for 335 days. During this time, the virus accumulated a unique in-frame deletion in the spike, and a complete deletion of ORF7b and ORF8 which is the first report of its kind in an immunocompromised patient.

ABSTRACT

Background:
B-cell depleting therapies may lead to protracted disease and prolonged viral shedding in individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2. Viral persistence in the setting of immunosuppression raises concern for viral evolution.

Methods:
Amplification of sub-genomic transcripts for the E gene (sgE) was done on nasopharyngeal samples over the course of 355 days in a patient infected with SARS-CoV-2 who had previously undergone CAR T cell therapy and had persistently positive SARS-CoV-2 nasopharyngeal swabs. Whole genome sequencing was performed on samples from the patient’s original presentation and 10 months later.

Results:
Over the course of almost a year, the virus accumulated a unique in-frame deletion in the amino-terminal domain of the spike protein, and complete deletion of ORF7b and ORF8, the first report of its kind in an immunocompromised patient. Also, minority variants that were identified in the early samples—reflecting the heterogeneity of the initial infection—were found to be fixed late in the infection. Remdesivir and high-titer convalescent plasma treatment were given, and the infection was eventually cleared after 335 days of infection.

Conclusions:
The unique viral mutations found in this study highlight the importance of analyzing viral evolution in protracted SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially in immunosuppressed hosts, and
the implication of these mutations in the emergence of viral variants.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...267v2.full.pdf

DJ There are several ways variants are created. Immune-problematic patients may have to deal with a long term infection and viral development inside one host...(maybe vertical development ?) . The proberbly (still) more common way is small mistakes in spreading-infections from host to host/viral reproduction (horizontal development ?). Both ways may be getting worse...

The group of people that could be dealing with long term infections-somewhere in the body-could be larger. Re-infections sometimes show themselves as long term infection (so not re-infection !) in wich the virus is able to hide in the host...By now both numbers of infections-and possibly number of species/host may be increasing with R0 going up further due to AY.4.2...

Maybe a third problem could be in people being infected by several variants of CoViD (in several organs). Upper respitory testing/sequencing could find another variant then there may be detected in other parts of the body...

A nightmare scenario could be older variants (P1, SA) still in some organs of infected people (maybe seen as "long-CoViD patients") with those older variants still mutating, getting worse...but not detected. Sewage sequencing could maybe detect/indicate the size of that problem...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; I'm hopeful you'll be fine until then since you had the Moderna vaccine and you are cautious. There's a new study that shows how short the protection of Pfizer is vs Moderna. It was looking at cancer patients, but control HCW group was pretty much out of gas after 6 months of Pfizer protection.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....20.21265273v1

Impaired Neutralizing Antibody Response to COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines in Cancer Patients
Cong Zeng, John P. Evans, Sarah Reisinger, Jennifer Woyach, Christina Liscynesky, Zeinab El Boghdadly, Mark P. Rubinstein, Karthik Chakravarthy, Linda Saif, Eugene M. Oltz, Richard J. Gumina, Peter G. Shields, Zihai Li, Shan-Lu Liu
medRxiv 2021.10.20.21265273; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.10.20.21265273

"Moderna mRNA-1273 outperformed Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine in mean NT50 by 2.8-fold for HCWs (p = 0.0053) and 2.1-fold for cancer patients
(p = 0.0044) (Fig. 1e). This is consistent with our previous findings that Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccinated individuals exhibit higher NT50 levels compared to Pfizer BNT162b212."

DJ For most western countries Pfizer and Moderna are most used...worldwide maybe AstraZeneca and some Chinese vaccins may have been used. (With both Idia and China having used over 1 billion vaccines to vaccinate their own populations...).  Besides the vaccine you also have to look at who did get what vaccine when...Since the most vulnarable did get vaccinated first-may not yet get booster vaccins-the most vulnarables face increasing risk from more infectious variants...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925843-first-case-of-new-delta-mutation-ay4-2-diagnosed-in-israel[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925843-first-case-of-new-delta-mutation-ay4-2-diagnosed-in-israel latest; Coronavirus: Additional 5 cases of new AY4.2 variant identified in Israel

*Jerusalem school registers new outbreak, kids 0-11 mark 50% of new cases. *Tourism outline to be presented to Prime Minister Bennett.

By ROSSELLA TERCATIN
OCTOBER 21, 2021 19:01

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/...nfected-682684

DJ Israel did see cases going down high speed due to (booster) vaccinations...but some groups remain problematic. See also [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-allow-vaccinated-or-recovered-tourists-to-enter-starting-november-1/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-allow-vaccinated-or-recovered-tourists-to-enter-starting-november-1/  with restriction-last vaccination has to have been in last 180 days...

Some twitter [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; Reality check. "When you have more social mixing and more movement in the presence of a virus that spreads with a respiratory route, then you're going to get more cases." @WHO's @DrMikeRyan

DJ I am NOT an expert but I did say "Stop the spread" because otherwise we would see worse variants...and I hate being correct ! I never was the most clever person at any school I went, but if I can see these developments why others "act surprised"? Maybe because they did not WANT to see it ? 

Why isn't the US government funding a Covid vaccine developed in Texas @PeterHotez that could be made around the world? https://texastribune.org/2021/10/19/texas-covid-19-vaccine-peter-hotez/?utm_campaign=trib-social-buttons&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

and Wow, didn’t realize Pfizer is telling countries they can’t accept Pfizer vaccine donations without permission from the company—as a condition of its contracts. That is so abusive. https://citizen.org/article/pfizers-power/DJ-We are in the worst global healthcrisis EVER !!!!! When you look at real numbers of people getting infected...(The world had less then 2 billion people during the Spanish Flu !!! It may be possible more people in the present pandemic did get infected then the global population was in 1919...). And still some vaccines, tests, etc only for profit...crazy !

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ; Scoop: Data we have obtained show that in one Chinese prov, asymptomatic #COVID19 cases exceed 1 in 6 individuals tested positive, but are kept out of published "confirmed cases," suggesting scale of epidemic larger than acknowledged. With @michaelmina_lab https://caixinglobal.com/2020-03-01/chinas-decision-to-leave-asymptomatic-patients-off-coronavirus-infection-tally-sparks-debate-101522529.html?rkey=4jojc%2BU9Dvsngy8ZDEibRfFL%2FE7ci4pKWqjW4%2BGUe6by9QRUi7v%2BWw%3D%3D&cxg=web&Sfrom=twitter

and BREAKING: Fed to ban policymakers from owning individual stocks, restrict trading following controversy https://cnb.cx/3nxMZibDJ Ignoring a/presymptomatic spread keeps this pandemic going ...Politicians also shareholders can be seen as corruption. 

Also from the same twitter account (retwittering) ;

Our finding on #SARSCoV2 and the brain´s microvasculature was published in 

 today. We used cells, animal models, and #COVID19 patients samples to show that the virus kills brain endothelial cells, possibly explaining neurological symptoms: https://nature.com/articles/s41593-021-00926-1.

DJ CoViD 19 is destroying cells allover the body !!! And proberbly a certain percentage of the infected (5-10%, partly in long-covid) may have the virus inside the body for months !!!

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirpLabour is not in favour of moving to Plan B on Covid, a spokesperson says. They are in favour of "making Plan A work"

DJ You do not get votes by bringing the bad news...

Also;




Powerful testimony from Royal College of Emergency Medicine President Dr Katherine Henderson to me on  Drive: "We're into unsustainable pressure already. We don't have time to manage patients, we don't have enough nursing staff to get things done in a timely way...

DJ We-in fact-are allready in a major healthcrisis NOW and further pressure will result in exponential growth of CoViD-deaths...because healthcare from GP to ICU is running out of capacity...almost on a global scale...

Other news [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/flash-canary-islands-government-warning-citizens-to-prepare-for-6-0-earthquake-and-massive-landslides[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/flash-canary-islands-government-warning-citizens-to-prepare-for-6-0-earthquake-and-massive-landslides DJ Hal Turner keeps warning for a landslide while the Island/volcane may be getting close to exploding...(and the landslide then only is minor...). 

-ZOE-Tim Spector [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJlD3R8QDd4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJlD3R8QDd4 claiming natural infection-study indicates long term protection...At present the tracker app in the UK is seeing 80,000 cases per day !!!!! So 1 in 65 UK persons may be infected...Out of the 80.000 daily infections 22,500 are fully vaccinated....

Cases in the UK have not been this bad since early this year...cases going up all over the UK-Scotland lifted restrictions later-rise 50% lower then the rest of the UK (Northern Ireland not in UK numbers...). 

Lack of staff is decreasing UK (booster)vaccines...Portugal, Spain, Denmark, Ireland are doing good in vaccines...NL, France still doing better then UK. Under the UK Germany, Israel (young population) the US...Tim spector-60% vaccination and no restrictions is asking for problems...

AY.4.2 in 10% of new UK cases-10/15% more infectious...(not much more info).

Natural infection still may protect 65% against other Covid infection-with a vaccine it can get up to 95%. But 20% of the infected do not get enough antibodies...Protection (against same variant DJ !) could last up to one year...

ZOE-data on protection ; 94% protection after infection and 2 doses of Pfizer for 6 months after last vaccination. That gets to 90% after infection and AstraZeneca, 83% protection after 6 months with fully Pfizer vaccines without infection, 71% after double AstraZeneca (no infection-six months) to 65% protection for 12 months after natural infection without vaccination...

The ZOE-info based on study from may to august this year-Prof. Tim Spector advises to get vaccinated after infection to boost immunity (aso against newer variants...). (Min 16 in the video)

Symptoms ZOE finds (NHS fails to update) in vaccinated/children (still) catching CoViD; 

headache, runny nose 73%, sneezing 59%, sore throat 53%, cough 48%...loss of smell is #6...a lot of symptoms easy to confuse with cold and flu...

Prof. Tim Spector conclusions much more actions are needed-both in restrictions (maintaining them as well) and (booster)vaccines. The most vulnarables may see more infections soon, growing risk for worse (sub) variants...

Dr. John Campbell had a video on "Delta-plus"/AY.4.2 I will discuss that in the latest news AY.4.2. section...

-Music; A nice clip from Kyu Sakamoto - Ue O Muite ArukO (not even propperly translated as "Sukiyaki" -I look up when I walk...may be more correct....DJ-lots of info in this pandemic is published-but not in English and therefor missed...) 1963. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbTsG9jrJsU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rbTsG9jrJsU 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, 

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BYou know what keeps me awake at night? The worry that there’s plenty of evidence on what we need to do to end this pandemic but people in power (whether in science or politics) don’t value it.

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; Global new reported cases for friday october 22; 458,950 trend +3%, deaths 7,805 trend +1%.

Top 3 for cases;   1-US 82,483 trend -14%,

                            2-UK 49,298 trend +19%,

                            3-Russia 37,141 trend +17%,

Top 3 for deaths; 1-US 1,610 trend 0%,

                            2-Russia 1,064 trend +5%,

                            3-India   666 trend +8%,

DJ-What is happening in India cases -10%, delayed reporting ? Worldwide now 97 countries report increase of cases, 74 report increase of deaths (with at #111 the first country reporting decrease of cases so 37 countries at (around) 0%...US reported 10,301 deaths last week, 10,294 this week...).

Europe cases +22%, deaths +13%, South America cases +9%, deaths +2%...with Brazil cases up +10%, deaths +11%, Chile cases +46%. New Zealand cases +49%.

When I look at twitter/flutracker etc. main reasons for again increasing numbers are lack of restrictions...Another factor may be 20-25% of hospital cases may be vaccinated. Some countries follow Israel in booster vaccinations (Israel cases -33%, deaths -3%). 

Yes it would be welcome if we did do much more for countries we keep poor. If the WHO is trying to "break" the Moderna vaccine in Africa so they can produce their own vaccines more then welcome ! It is beyond shocking that patents, profit, are more important then saving lives, trying to get out of this pandemic !!!

Yesterday I did write 1 million deaths per month could be on its way...that would mean 33,333 deaths per day...On january 20 this year we had a peak of 17,579 deaths on one day being reported. The Delta-India outbreak proberbly killed between 3 and 5 million people in India...it just was not reported...

The WHO came with an estimate so far this pandemic may have killed between 80,000 and 180,000 health care workers (HCW), in many countries these essential workers often try to get safer jobs, better pay, better hours, less risk...

"Saving the economy" is keeping us now in a pandemic for almost 2 years. And it would be very optimistic to believe we can get out of it in 2022...How ???

[url]https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/10/21/2059475/-The-U-K-may-be-seeing-a-new-variant-that-is-more-contagious-than-delta[/url] or https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/10/21/2059475/-The-U-K-may-be-seeing-a-new-variant-that-is-more-contagious-than-delta (Link from HoneyBee08-good info !) It is unclear what role the Delta-subvariant AY.4.2 is playing...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant

 It has been suggested that AY.4.2 might be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant, but this would not lead to a large increase in cases.[51] In the UK it was reclassified as a "variant under investigation" (but not "of concern") in late October 2021.[52]

DJ, AY.4.2 proberbly is widespread around the globe...but limited testing/sequencing may mean it is not getting detected...Increasing vaccinations and boosters may help to limit the rise in cases however more restrictions-from travel to masks etc. are needed. 

The US is preparing vaccinations for children, booster vaccinations in the US also have started. If that is enough to stop rising cases future will tell. Also lots of other countries went for vaccinations 5y/o+ and boosters...but in the UK they did not start in time to stop the rise...And again R0 of Delta could be between 5 and 8-another 10/15% increase on top of an allready high R0 is bad news !

If the R0 of Delta is 2x that of Alfa/UK and that one was 2x the "original early 2020 version" Alfa R0 between 2 and 4 ? 2019-early version R0 between 1 and 2 ? So-just thinking-15% extra on top of an R0 of 8 would be a jump of 1,2...maybe less then the other "jumps" but still high ! 

Delta is creating a much larger viral load, it can be AY.4.2 is pushing that viral load even further ??? [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator




If reports out of Russia are accurate and AY.4.2 is truly 10% more infectious than Delta, this demonstrates a scary trend. Small mutation with significant consequences.

DJ Here in NL "Delta is 100% of cases"...with limited info on subvariant AY.4.2 ....[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected has 28 countries reporting AY.4.2. Romania did detect 31 of this subvariant-out of 4,131 samples. The UK did so far detect 4,344 out of 1,045,504 samples...Slovakia, Russia, Finland, South Africa, Lithuania, Brazil, India, Germany, Sweden all so far detected just 1...Israel is not on the list-in news thet did find 6 cases and detect 10 others in people arriving from the US (Dr.J.C. in his video on this variant). The US detected 28 cases out of 1,352,476 samples.

Global cases going up again-mixed with unclear reports on AY.4.2 should be alarming us !

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implementedOctober 19, 2021
The Gamma variant of the coronavirus is now the most dominant in St Vincent and the Grenadines. In samples sent for testing by SVG, 24 have been identified as Gamma, 15 have been identified as Mu and six as the Delta variant.

Minister of Health St Clair Jimmy Prince says there has been an escalation on all fronts with more cases being identified, increased hospitalisations and more deaths.

St Vincent and the Grenadines currently has 1,643 active COVID-19 cases and has recorded 54 deaths.
...
As the health minister urged Vincentians to get vaccinated, he also stated: “Soon those of us who are vaccinated will have a photo ID vaccination card. It is in the making we are doing work on that and will soon have it on hand.”

...

The majority of active COVID-19 cases are in the Kingstown, Calliaqua, Pembroke and Northern Grenadines health districts. The majority of cases are being reported in the younger age group 45 years and under, however, in general, all age groups are affected at this time.

In terms of deaths, Bobb says the current spike began in September and the majority of persons who have died are women....

DJ Indicating some regions still do not have Delta as dominant variant.  With very limited testing and sequencing we may be as good as blind.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-until-november?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-until-november?view=stream ; UK trends cases +18,1% at 50,861...deaths +15,8% at 129, hospital cases +19,1% at 1,051 in just one day...testing 91,403 +1,4% (if over 50,000 new cases are reported out of the 90,000+ tests positivity rate is alarming !!!).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream

Today, CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky, M.D., M.P.H., endorsed the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ (ACIP) recommendation for a booster shot of COVID-19 vaccines in certain populations. The Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) authorizationexternal icon and CDC’s recommendation for use are important steps forward as we work to stay ahead of the virus and keep Americans safe.

For individuals who received a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, the following groups are eligible for a booster shot at 6 months or more after their initial series:

For the nearly 15 million people who got the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, booster shots are also recommended for those who are 18 and older and who were vaccinated two or more months ago.

There are now booster recommendations for all three available COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. Eligible individuals may choose which vaccine they receive as a booster dose. Some people may have a preference for the vaccine type that they originally received and others, may prefer to get a different booster. CDC’s recommendations now allow for this type of mix and match dosing for booster shots.

Millions of people are newly eligible to receive a booster shot and will benefit from additional protection. However, today’s action should not distract from the critical work of ensuring that unvaccinated people take the first step and get an initial COVID-19 vaccine. More than 65 million Americans remain unvaccinated, leaving themselves – and their children, families, loved ones, and communities– vulnerable.

Available data right now show that all three of the COVID-19 vaccines approved or authorized in the United States continue to be highly effective in reducing risk of severe disease, hospitalization, and death, even against the widely circulating Delta variant. Vaccination remains the best way to protect yourself and reduce the spread of the virus and help prevent new variants from emerging.

DJ Belgium will be offering boosters [url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/190285/belgian-health-minister-wants-pharmacists-to-administer-vaccines/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/190285/belgian-health-minister-wants-pharmacists-to-administer-vaccines/ for "all that want one..."

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926070-nat-comp-sci-climatic-signatures-in-the-different-covid-19-pandemic-waves-across-both-hemispheres[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926070-nat-comp-sci-climatic-signatures-in-the-different-covid-19-pandemic-waves-across-both-hemispheres

Although COVID first came to light during the winter months of 2019-2020, and reached its first peak almost a year later (Dec 2021), its intensity plunged in January of this year, only to reach new heights in the spring. After another lull, the summer of 2021 saw a rise nearly equal to last winter (see epi chart above).


Pandemic viruses - particularly during their first year or two, when community immunity to a novel virus is low or non-existent - can pose an all-season threat.

Four years ago, in PLoS Comp. Bio.: Spring & Early Summer Most Likely Time For A Pandemic, we looked at evidence that most flu pandemics have emerged when influenza prevalence is low, even though they just about always become seasonal viruses themselves.


While I think there's been a general expectation that COVID would become a seasonal virus - much like influenza - one that is most prevalent during colder/dryer winter seasons, its behavior until now has raised questions.

Yesterday researchers from Barcelona's Institute for Global Health published a paper in Nature Computational Science that finds `robust' statistical evidence for COVID being a seasonal virus, and provides further evidence of its `airborne' nature.


All of which has implications - not only for this winter - but potentially for winters to come.

DJ I think comparing CoViD with flu-even in statistics can get misleading. We could learn from CoViD outbreaks in farm animals. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926066-3-lions-at-indianapolis-zoo-test-positive-for-delta-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926066-3-lions-at-indianapolis-zoo-test-positive-for-delta-variant ; Three African lions at the Indianapolis Zoo have tested positive for the Delta variant of COVID-19 and have been taken off exhibit, officials said Thursday.

The lions — females Zuri and Sukari, and male Enzi — tested positive on Oct. 14 after the females showed respiratory and digestive symptoms, officials said. The two young lions are doing well. The older female, Zuri, continues to be treated for respiratory symptoms, officials said...

DJ Yet another outbreak in lions...does Delta (or subvariants of it) spread more easy in non-human hosts ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926065-increasing-number-of-covid-19-infections-trigger-alarms-in-chile[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926065-increasing-number-of-covid-19-infections-trigger-alarms-in-chile ; Chile's Health Ministry (Minsal) Thursday reported 1,842 new cases of COVID-19, the highest number recorded in the last three months, marking a 53% rise compared to last week and 68% against the last two weeks.

With the 1,842 infections in the last 24 hours, the total number infected people amounted to more than 1.67 million since the beginning of the pandemic, while deaths have reached 37,640 after 12 new fatalities.

Thursday's figures were also the highest since the 1,859 cases reported Jul. 22.

The positivity rate of PCR tests nationwide currently stands at 2.7%. In the Santiago Metropolitan Region it is 4%, while other 10 regions have yielded results below or around 2%.

According to El Mercurio and despite Chile's advanced vaccination plan, the country has the highest number of active cases per million inhabitants in South America, with a rate of 67 new daily positives per million inhabitants.

Brazil comes second with 50 new cases a day, Uruguay 46 and Bolivia 31...

DJ More info on (sub)variants would be welcome ! [url]https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemia_de_COVID-19_en_Chile[/url] or https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemia_de_COVID-19_en_Chile also not offering info on variants...Outbreak only 1 AY.4.2 case in Brazil for all of South America.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925920-ukraine-coronavirus-deaths-highest-daily-toll-since-beginning-of-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925920-ukraine-coronavirus-deaths-highest-daily-toll-since-beginning-of-pandemic ; The Ministry of Health in Ukraine, the country with the lowest rate of coronavirus vaccination in Europe, reported on Tuesday that 538 people had died of Covid-19 in the country over the previous 24 hours. It was the highest daily death toll since the beginning of the pandemic.

The country’s health officials are struggling with two interconnected and vexing problems: widespread vaccine skepticism, and illegal schemes selling fake Covid credentials that people use to get around restrictions intended to slow the virus’ spread, like a new rule taking effect Thursday that requires a vaccination certificate or negative test to board a train.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine or that site in Russian offers no info on variants...

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ; Paramedics say they are now regularly holding 300 calls at a time when no ambulances are available

and Though the latest phase of the pandemic in England has been driven by (unvaccinated) children, the virus has spread to older age groups, where immunity is waning. 3/4 of the places in this plot are in the SW, which was victim to the unaccredited lab scam. Corruption costs lives.

DJ No need to fear the UK may see a healthcrisis on its way...it is allready there !

-Dr. John Campbell on "Mix and match vaccines" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz0I_v-ihsE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz0I_v-ihsE ; Sajid Javid, cases could rise to 100,000 per day this winter Sage October report https://assets.publishing.service.gov...

Risk posed by further viral evolution, that becomes dominant globally is a very real possibility Therefore need for: Capacity to monitor for variants Conduct predictive vaccinology 

Winter and into 2022 Hospital admissions above the level seen in January 2021 are increasingly unlikely 

Uncertainties, behaviour change and waning immunity Co-circulation and co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 with Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and influenza 

DJ I think Dr.J.C. again being "over optimistic". My perspective for this pandemic is that is getting worse by the day...with to little steps (NPI) to stop it...again I hope I am wrong !

-Music; Bee Gees - 1968 - Ie Gotta Get A Mesage To You [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYkrW7YpRpg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYkrW7YpRpg 

My message would be-get vaccinated/booster if you can but act like it offers only very limited protection...There are more then just CoViD-virusses out there ! Stay safe !


                            


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 11:40pm

Internet problems....

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table and [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected seem to indicate a link between the AY.4.2 variant and strong increase in cases. 

The link is very clear for Europe (cases +23%), however much less clear for South America (cases +13%)...Another remark; South America is moving into summer...

The AY.4.2 sub variant of Delta also has been detected in Malawi-Africa, cases +13% there-while most of Africa see cases decreasing. In Brazil cases-again-+19% with also limited detection of AY.4.2 ....

Global numbers cases 374,274, deaths 5,735...UK had 44,985 cases (weekly trend +16%), Russia reported 1,075 deaths (+5%).

Some European trends; Czechia cases +118%, Poland +92%, Hungary +88%, Belgium +73%, Croatia +70%, Austria +53%, Denmark +49%, NL +43% indicating a very serious increase of cases. 

In South America cases +138 in Paraguay, +37% in Chile, +16% in Argentina and in Brazil-where a few AY4.2 variants have been detected +19%.

The AY4.2 variant may be underestimated...

-Flutrackers etc.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GodsuSLuy5w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GodsuSLuy5w China Global TV Network (CGTN) in september 2019 Italy may have had CoViD 19 circulating...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented latest; October 23, 2021
...
In view of the confirmed presence of the Delta, Mu and Gamma variants in the community and the significant increase in the number of new infections, transmission, severe COVID-19 disease and deaths, strict enforcement and compliance with all protocols and recommendations by
everyone is strongly recommended...

DJ So Mu and Gamma still active in some places.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/926113-%E2%80%98flesh-eating%E2%80%99-std-that-causes-%E2%80%98beefy-red%E2%80%99-sores-is-spreading-in-uk[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/926113-%E2%80%98flesh-eating%E2%80%99-std-that-causes-%E2%80%98beefy-red%E2%80%99-sores-is-spreading-in-ukA once-rare flesh-eating sexually transmitted disease that causes “beefy red” ulcers is spreading across the UK, according to a report Friday.

Cases of donovanosis — which causes thick sores that damage genital tissue — have been steadily growing in the region since 2016, and cases are expected to rise, according to data and experts cited by Birmingham Live.

“Figures suggest that donovanosis — which was previously thought to be restricted to places including India, Brazil and New Guinea — is becoming more common on these shores,” Dr. Datta, of MyHealthCare Clinic in London, told the outlet.

Health officials reported 30 cases of the STD in the UK in 2019, but more infections in the past two years could pose a public-health risk, she warned...

DJ Enough other healthrisks..some of them may increase because of this pandemic. 

Limited news...

-Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IWxocGm21U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IWxocGm21U Bread - Aubrey ...enjoy !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2021 at 3:03am

Regarding donovanosis : symptoms can appear 12 weeks after infection.   One report said it was mostly spread by unprotected sex.  

If people won't wear masks I doubt they would start using protection during sex, or the other alternative of sticking to only one partner.


more details at https://www.menshealth.com/uk/health/sexual-health/a38011607/donovanosis-symptoms-treatment-prognosis/






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 25 2021 at 9:59pm

Sticking to one partner may be the healthy choice for many reasons....That does not mean sticking to a damaging relationship...As a society we maybe would need more ways to intervene in unhealthy relations...simply because some people for some reason can not take enough care themselves. 

DJ [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/striking-workers-decry-suicide-shifts-pandemic-burnout-takes-toll[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/striking-workers-decry-suicide-shifts-pandemic-burnout-takes-toll In most of Europe a 40 hour working week is seen as healthy...Broken shifts-working 2x 4 hours in care, education etc. do mean less people want that kind of jobs...

A bad relationship=or no relation at all, a bad job do increase stress and with that the health risks...

-Numbers; 335,244 new cases, 5,292 new deaths reported monday reflecting (most) low US testing sunday. The sunday numbers reflecting saterday; 355,450 cases, 5,066 deaths being reported. Last trend cases +3%, deaths +0,6%. Low weekend numbers underline statistics at best can give an indication...

Some remarks on those numbers ; What is happening with India deaths going up 75% ? 

Another idea on realistic total number of deaths. In such a list India would be at #1 with very likely several million CoViD deaths-not the 455,000+ in the present statistics. India claiming 326 deaths per million is unrealistic...If you would make that 3,260 dpm -go for 4,550,000 deaths that may be more realistic...

Brazil reported 605,884 deaths - 2,824 deaths per million. Peru has at present 5,959 deaths per million-would Brazil be doing that much better then Peru ? If you double the dpm/deaths you end up at 5,648 dpm -1,2 million+ deaths...proberbly also closer to a real number...

Russia most likely is also underreporting. With 1,587 deaths per million for Russia, dpm for France at 1,795, Italy at 2,185 and Spain 1,864 and media claims of 600,000 excess deaths+. The official number stands at 231,669 Russian deaths (dying within 4 weeks after a positive test...also the UK is using that bizarre criteria).  So maybe Russian deaths per million 3,000+ ? The outcome of both limited vaccinations and restrictions...not taking CoViD serious...

So in a top 3 I think India would be at #1, Brazil at #2 the US would still end up at #3 with limited vaccinations and restrictions-not doing that much better then Russia...

Russia still would be #4, Mexico #5 with very likely over 300,000 CoViD deaths...

The global dpm stands at 637,6...when 10,000 is 1% of 1 million that would mean 0,06376% of the global population so far died in this pandemic...official number getting close to 5 million...Maybe five times that number would be more realistic...

-Flutrackers (yesterday 14 posts-no real news, with also these weekend numbers I ran out of what to write...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926198-why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-the-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926198-why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-the-coronavirusA bit before midnight on January 20, a Harvard epidemiologist named Eric Feigl-Ding posted a long, terrifying Twitter thread mostly summarizing, and in a few places contextualizing, a new, pre-publication paper on the infectiousness of the novel coronavirus that had, at the time, forced Wuhan into a total lockdown but had not yet been detected outside of China. The context he added was, mostly, alarmism.

“Holy mother of god,” the thread began, “the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!!” That figure referred to what’s called the reproduction number, or “R0,” of a disease: how many people would be infected by a single sick person. “I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with … possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgovneeds to declare public health emergency ASAP!”

The thread has since been deleted, though you can still read a preserved version of it here. It was, for many Americans, if not the first time they had heard of coronavirus, perhaps the first time they had seen a global alarm raised over it. And in doing so, it produced what is by now a sort of predictable backlash: other scientists and science journalists taking issue with it, en masse, pointing out that the paper had not yet been published; that Feigl-Ding’s comparison to the infection rate of SARS was inaccurate; that most estimates of the R0 number were now lower than 3.8. Feigl-Ding’s tweets got more readers than those of his critics’. But those credentialed in epidemiology and public health were much more likely to see the criticism as sober and responsible, Feigl-Ding himself as an irresponsible alarmist, and the impulse to raise alarm a deeply reckless one. An Atlantic story about it was headlined “How to Misinform Yourself About the Coronavirus.”

Two months later, we are, inarguably, in the midst of a global pandemic. ...

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...ronavirus.html

__________________________________________________ ________________________________

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

Epidemiologist & health economist.
Senior Fellow, @FAScientists.
Former 16 yrs @Harvard. Environment, health & social justice.
COVID updates since Jan 2020.

Jan. 25, 2020 3 min read

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD- the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak

2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...

3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....

4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be ...

https://threader.app/thread/1220919589623803905

DJ Just like in climate collapse "shoot the messenger"  we do not want to hear the real story...And we still do not want to hear it...that is why we are in a worsening pandemic now...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926197-molnupiravir-%E2%80%93-the-new-covid-antiviral-named-after-thor%E2%80%99s-hammer[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926197-molnupiravir-%E2%80%93-the-new-covid-antiviral-named-after-thor%E2%80%99s-hammer ; On October 1st, Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics announced that molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801), an investigational oral antiviral medicine, significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization or death at a planned interim analysis of the Phase 3 trial in at risk, non-hospitalized adult patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. They report at the interim analysis that “molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%; 7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo-treated patients (53/377); p=0.0012.” Formal publication of the data is pending.

Molnupiravir was named by Kaleio in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. The primary mechanism of action of molnupiravir is induction of lethal mutagenesis by incorporation of the 5’-monophosphate metabolite into the viral RNA genome. Because molnupiravir is resistant to the proofreading exoribonuclease encoded by coronaviruses, it is able to prevent viral propagation via viral error catastrophe, for which no defined nomenclature exists in the INN/USAN system.

https://www.idstewardship.com/molnup...-thors-hammer/

DJ When you look at the HIV/AIDS pandemic one may see a lot of similarities. Big Pharma not willing to give up copy rights-poor countries that suffer the most (for greed-profit) find ways around the Big Pharma power block...Many smaller countries are also working on own vaccines, medications etc...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926196-new-hhs-actions-add-to-biden-administration-efforts-to-increase-access-to-easy-to-use-over-the-counter-covid-19-tests[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926196-new-hhs-actions-add-to-biden-administration-efforts-to-increase-access-to-easy-to-use-over-the-counter-covid-19-tests ; FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 25, 2021


NIH to Invest $70 Million from American Rescue Plan to Accelerate Test Developers Progress Through Regulatory Authorization Process

FDA Updates Regulatory Path Which Could Lower Costs, Make Tests More Available

FDA Authorizes Additional Over-the-Counter COVID-19 Test

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/...-19-tests.html

DJ Covid-tests are easy to get, cheap (2,5 US $ per test ? If you buy 5 in a box it may be 9 US$) in NL...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/926193-untimely-tgf%CE%B2-responses-in-covid-19-limit-antiviral-functions-of-nk-cells[/url] orhttps://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/926193-untimely-tgf%CE%B2-responses-in-covid-19-limit-antiviral-functions-of-nk-cells; We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Accepted14 October 2021
Published: 25 October 2021

DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04142-6

Witkowski, M., Tizian, C., Ferreira-Gomes, M. et al.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded RNA virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Given its acute and often self-limiting course, components of the innate immune system are likely central in controlling virus replication thereby determining clinical outcome. 

Natural killer (NK) cells are innate lymphocytes with notable activity against a broad range of viruses, including RNA viruses1,2. NK cell function may be altered during COVID-19 despite increased representation of NK cells with an activated and ‘adaptive’ phenotype3,4

Here we show that viral load decline in COVID-19 correlates with NK cell status and that NK cells can control SARS-CoV-2 replication by recognizing infected target cells. 

In severe COVID-19, NK cells show remarkable defects in virus control, cytokine production and cell-mediated cytotoxicity despite high expression of cytotoxic effector molecules. 

Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) of NK cells along the time course of the entire COVID-19 disease spectrum reveals a unique gene expression signature. 

Transcriptional networks of interferon-driven NK cell activation are superimposed by a dominant TGFβ response signature with reduced expression of genes related to cell-cell adhesion, granule exocytosis and cell-mediated cytotoxicity. 

In severe COVID-19, serum levels of TGFβ peak during the first 2 weeks of infection, and serum obtained from these patients profoundly inhibits NK cell function in a TGFβ-dependent manner. 

Our data reveal that untimely production of TGFβ is a hallmark of severe COVID-19 and may inhibit NK cell function and early virus control.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s415..._reference.pdf

DJ In severe CoViD the immune system itself is "ill" and not able to defend enough.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926192-us-unveils-new-coronavirus-rules-for-international-travel[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926192-us-unveils-new-coronavirus-rules-for-international-travel ; The vast majority of adult travelers who want to visit the US will need to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 starting November 8.

All visitors older than two years, regardless of vaccination status, will also need to present a negative coronavirus test taken within three days of travel, according to an order signed by US President Joe Biden on Monday.

Airlines will have to collect contact information on passengers to help with contact tracing and store it for 30 days.

Children and teenagers under 18 will be exempt from vaccination travel rules.

... “It is in the interests of the United States to move away from the country-by-country restrictions previously applied during the COVID-19 pandemic and to adopt an air travel policy that relies primarily on vaccination to advance the safe resumption of international air travel to the United States,” said Biden’s order.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...s-travel-rules

DJ Here in NL during a choir concert 20 of the 150 people-all fully vaccinated-did get CoViD (with mild symptoms-the real number may be even higher). Israel has a rule vaccination not older then 180 days-makes at least some more sense...but do we need international air travel now ? Can we not limit that for essential family visits or so ? 

Virus/variants travel for free-still will do so in vaccinated people !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926190-china-to-start-vaccinating-children-to-age-3-as-cases-spread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926190-china-to-start-vaccinating-children-to-age-3-as-cases-spread ; Children as young as 3 will start receiving COVID-19 vaccines in China, where 76% of the population has been fully vaccinated and authorities are maintaining a zero-tolerance policy toward outbreaks.

China becomes one of the very few countries in the world to start vaccinating children that young against the virus. Cuba, for one, has begun a vaccine drive for children as young as 2. The U.S. and many European countries allow COVID-19 shots down to age 12, though the U.S. is moving quickly toward opening vaccinations to 5- to 11-year-olds.

Local city and provincial level governments in at least five Chinese provinces issued notices in recent days announcing that children ages 3 to 11 will be required to get their vaccinations.

The expansion of the vaccination campaign comes as parts of China take new clampdown measures to try to stamp out small outbreaks.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...c6f99745b3664b

DJ; We do vaccinate young children for lots of diseases. Babies born today most often will have their mothers vaccinated-proberbly may get some protection that way. But again STOP THE SPREAD !!!

Here in NL we have seen "beer-fests" with massive number of people getting infected-often with vaccinations...Vaccinations still help-in most cases-against severe disease-but it may not do enough against getting infected ! (And there is discussion on the viral load from a vaccinated asymptomatic spreader compared to unvaccinated ones...maybe the difference is very small...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926189-namibia-to-suspend-use-of-russian-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-%E2%80%93-ministry[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926189-namibia-to-suspend-use-of-russian-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-%E2%80%93-ministry ; Namibia will suspend its rollout of Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine, its health ministry said on Saturday, days after the drugs regulator in neighbouring South Africa flagged concerns about its safety for people at risk of HIV.

The Gamaleya Research Institute, which developed Sputnik V, said Namibia’s decision was not based on any scientific evidence or research.

The South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA) decided not to approve an emergency use application for Sputnik V for now because, it said, some studies suggested that administration of vaccines using the Adenovirus Type 5 vector – which Sputnik V does – was associated with higher susceptibility to HIV in men.

Namibia’s health ministry said in a statement that the decision to discontinue use of the Russian vaccine was “out of (an) abundance of caution that men (who) received Sputnik V may be at higher risk of contracting HIV,” adding that it had taken SAHPRA’s decision into account.

Sputnik V remains one of the safest and most efficient vaccines against COVID-19 in use globally, the Gamaleya institute told Reuters. It said more than 250 clinical trials and 75 international publications confirmed the safety of vaccines and medicines based on human adenovirus vectors...

DJ You do NOT get HIV via Sputnik-V !!! HIV goes via other ways-if Sputnik vaccines would limit protection against other infections it may be related to the body building up immunity-but you would find it also in other vaccines...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926177-cidrap-us-hospitals-took-huge-unequal-financial-hit-during-covid-studies-show[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926177-cidrap-us-hospitals-took-huge-unequal-financial-hit-during-covid-studies-show ; Three new studies describe how the COVID-19 pandemic cratered the finances of many US hospitals, one finding that most federal relief funds went to the already best-resourced facilities and the other two showing the devastating monetary effects of delaying or canceling surgeries.

DJ Who pays for healthcare ? At the end we do ! Either via tax-state run, via insurance or direct from your own wallet...In my idea the benefit of state run healthcare could be getting the best care for the money...But where there is money there always will be people trying to misuse the system...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; 
Well, Publix gave me the booster shot! lol

I felt nothing. So far no reaction at all. It is the 1/2 dose of Moderna.

I really had no choice. I am high risk. I think the best strategy for me is to layer protections.

THE VACCINE BOOSTER IS NOT GOING TO SAVE ME. It is only ONE TOOL.

As I said before, I use maskslimit my inside exposures, and generally use social distancing as a rule. I also, carry hand sanitizer, and gargle with a mouthwash after outside exposure to people if they come into my comfort sphere. If I need to visit a doctor's office, I have a jazzy pair of goggles I wear. I really don't care how dumb I look to others. In fact, one doctor thanked me.

I also listen to my instincts. I was going to shop at the busy grocery store but getting the shot took so long that I felt I had been in the store long enough. About 1/2 of the shoppers did not have any mask on. No one was wearing an N95. I had been in there about 45 minutes so I said - screw it, and left. Nothing solid. Just a feeling.

The problem we now have is that all of the millions of people who got the vaccines earlier this year have waning antibodies of some degree. They don't know if they are protected anymore, or not. It remains to be seen what length and strength of immunity COVID survivors have. Do mild cases have any antibodies?

In the end, you need to evaluate your personal risk and act on it. People have different ideas of what to do and I respect that.

DJ Even with vaccinations as long as the virus is out there it would be wise to wear a mask, limit risks etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926168-doctors-are-often-unaware-of-the-only-treatment-for-early-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926168-doctors-are-often-unaware-of-the-only-treatment-for-early-covid-19There is a treatment for early-stage Covid-19.

By this point, Arana was so weak she couldn't walk on her own. Her husband, a school bus driver and custodian, got her out of bed and drove her to UCSF Fresno, where she received four shots of the treatment, called monoclonal antibodies.

"The next day I could feel a difference. Two days later I could get out of bed and clean the house and feed my children," Arana said. "I really do think the antibodies saved my life."

An investigation by CNN shows Arana is not alone in her challenge to find monoclonal antibodies. Many patients who qualify for the drugs say their doctors never mentioned them, even though it has been nearly a year since antibodies were first authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration, they're the only treatment for early Covid, and studies have shown they can dramatically reduce the risk of hospitalization and death.

The federal government has made efforts to educate doctors, including a presentation by Dr. Anthony Fauci at a White House briefing in August, but still problems have persisted...

DJ Good communications are essential in any crisis !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926124-netherlands-covid-hospital-total-passes-700-to-tie-11-week-high-another-5-700-infections[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926124-netherlands-covid-hospital-total-passes-700-to-tie-11-week-high-another-5-700-infections latest; The Dutch government may impose new coronavirus restrictions to reduce pressure on hospitals struggling to deal with a swelling number of COVID-19 patients, Health Minister Hugo de Jonge said on Monday.

Coronavirus infections in the Netherlands have been rising for a month and reached their highest level since July in recent days, after most social distancing measures were dropped in late September...

DJ Dropping social distancing measures went against any medical advice...now this "government" may be thinking of more restrictions for the unvaccinated...We have 81%+ of 12 y/o+ vaccinated...but a lot of spread came from under 12 y/o at schools...not being vaccinated...There are problems with infections in poor urban area's more or less at the same level as in christian orthodox area's "bible belt"...Booster vaccines were planned for spring 2022...

Maybe vaccinating (offering it) to 5y/o+ , boosters for all six months after last vaccination, more ad random testing may help...And bring back social distancing, face masks etc ! See also [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/25/dutch-government-considering-new-coronavirus-restrictions[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/25/dutch-government-considering-new-coronavirus-restrictions 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/922030-new-zealand-battling-delta-variant?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/922030-new-zealand-battling-delta-variant?view=stream DJ Very sad to see New Zealand reporting another 111 new cases, trends +75% (I would not be surprised if AY.4.2 is also spreading in NZ...)

A look at twitter [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculatorLoss of cells lining the walls of capillaries in the brain makes them unable to cary blood—harming the brain. What is left are called "string vessels" and are found in increased numbers in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's 3/ https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-disease/jad00332 https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-parkinsons-disease/jpd140454

DJ Long CoViD with damage all over the body may see healthissues getting worse later on...A 20 y/o that by the time he/she is 40 may have the body of a 60 y/o...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericdingKids 5-18 currently have the highest rates of COVID in Rhode Island. While many adults are staying safe with remote work options, students are eating in crowded cafeterias in groups of hundreds at a time. 

DJ Young age groups believe they face less risks-but because the older age groups did get vaccinated statistics point in another direction...more and more young people face serious health issues !

#LongCovid is also wrecking our doctors and nurses. Listen to this doctor who got infected in April 2020 and been hospitalized multiple times and now debilitated. This is the price of endemic mass infection COVID.

DJ We may be running out of healthcare workers ! Due to burn-out, disease, better paid-lower risk other jobs...

-Dr. John Campbell-two video's [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY on declining vaccine efficacy (=waning immunity...)

Asking for aspirating is seen as strange...even when for asking things go wrong...first injecting then taking back the plunger is not the job...it is a training issue ! 

Vaccine protection declined by mid-August 2021 Decreasing from 91.9% in March Down to 53.9%

Declines were greatest for the Janssen vaccine followed by Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna. 

Specifically, for protection against infection

Janssen March, 92% August, 3%  !!!!!!

Moderna March, 91% August, 64% 

Pfizer March, 95% August, 50% 

Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection It is not yet clear whether reductions in vaccine protection against infection will translate into similar reductions in protection against hospitalization and death. 

Vaccines remain the most important tool to prevent infection, severe illness, and death, but vaccines should be accompanied by additional measures, including masking, hand washing, physical distancing, and other public health interventions 

DJ Booster vaccines are needed but ALSO NPI/restrictions (and yes this may increasingly mean lockdowns !!! The less we act now the worse the problem is getting !!! AY.4.2 may be a far bigger problem-maybe also for the vaccinated !!!

Another video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkmXrHNEn5g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkmXrHNEn5g "Endemic equilibrium cometh"; Somehow Dr.J.C. claims UK cases did go down...I did not see that in Worldometer statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ 

Some sort of "balance" "endemic" "live with it" nonsense I think is NOT science ! We need to prevent CoViD cases as much as we can to avoid newer variants that evade immunity even better then AY4.2 may allready be doing...

Music; The Bee Gees - I Started A Joke - 1968 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrg1UAixGaM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrg1UAixGaM good clip !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 26 2021 at 12:53am

Good point about not forcing people to stay in abusive relationships.  

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