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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 21 2021 at 10:40pm

DJ...limited time...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/21/stricter-lockdown-last-winter-coronavirus-infections-dont-fall-security-council-leader[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/21/stricter-lockdown-last-winter-coronavirus-infections-dont-fall-security-council-leader Goal of a lockdown/NPI would have to be to STOP getting into a crisis...not a reaction ON a crisis...

We most likely will get in "Code Black" in NL this week...with hospitals running out of capacity...We are now allmost in a week  with over 20,000+ cases per day...It would be like the UK having 80-90,000 cases per day...UK has 4x NL population...). Unacceptable high numbers with political inaction...

Bad part of it is we see this kind of "surprise" in many European countries...It will be a very hard winter. The WHO warning of half a million deaths for Europe this winter (till march 1 2022 ?) may be even "optimistic"...

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global cases for sunday november 21; 396,559 trend +7%, deaths 4,396 trend -2%

Europe cases sunday november 21 ; 262,752 trend +15%, deaths 2,488 trend +3%

Comparing US with Germany...cases 36,860 for Germany, trend +32% (on top of allready very high numbers !!!)  US sunday-limited testing-cases 27,484, trend -1%

German deaths 60 (=25%), US 96 (-9%)..in both countries regions with lower vaccinations see higher numbers-so very major regional differences...

Limited vaccinations are a factor-but getting ignored in most mass media is Delta+ variants being more infectious and getting better in evading immunity. Booster vaccines do matter but Europe is a bit slow on that...

NL cases +56%, deaths +34% indicating a high level of vaccinations without good monitoring of wise restrictions simply will not do the job...A short look at some other European countries for weekly trend in cases; France +81% (!!!!!), Finland +66%, Portugal +49%, Poland +40%, Denmark +29%, Italy +27%...these numbers are shocking this far into this pandemic...most of these countries have a higher level of vaccinations then most of the world...often also still lots of restrictions ! 

Growing unrest in many places [url]https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/11/21/anti-corona-measures-demo-in-brussels/[/url] or https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2021/11/21/anti-corona-measures-demo-in-brussels/ ...A main question is how do we get out of this crisis ? 

We may end up in phase two of a pandemic; lots of widespread social unrest...distrust of government...

A solution would be a government having clear goals...a clear strategy...And for most countries there is a major problem. Limiting restrictions for the vaccinated did result in this explosion of cases...since vaccines do not stop the spread and children often still can not get vaccinated-a lot of spread at schools... On top of that (most from US) flu may become a problem (US universities student spread...). 

-Some twitter etc. 

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ;

Don’t worry, they tell me permanent neurological damage leading to the loss of 2/5 of your senses is a mild symptom.

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UK cases guess. Doubt we'll exceed 40k today shops very busy yesterday so people probably didnt test. Up about 5 or 6% on last Sun is my best guess. Could be as low as 38.5k but if its over 42k we are still in trouble.

DJ I did keep the less polite ones out...UK BoJo&Co simply sticking to "pandemic is over" trying to manipulate statistics...Here in NL "politics" is blaming the public for "not sticking to rules" after lifting those rules earlier since "we were moving out of this pandemic"...head of NL-CDC did not see a winterwave coming last month...this crisis was political and is getting even more political...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator

Israel - third dose for kids 12-15 years  https://timesofisrael.com/health-ministry-covid-19-experts-advise-vaccine-booster-for-teens-12-15/ The 

  ministry of health recommends a third dose for all teenagers age 12-15 who received their second dose >5 months ago

DJ-In NL that age group can not even get a first vaccination still...Booster vaccines for the over 80's just started in NL...

We’ve discovered a large and persistent recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in North & Central America. Hope to post a longer thread soon. Recombination as a source of new and viable virus genetic diversity needs to be taken seriously.

DJ Some "experts" claimed CoViD did run out of variants months ago...Delta+ is "very bad"...recombination may even bring much worse !!! Again STOP THE SPREAD !!!!! Emergence and widespread circulation of a recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in North America  https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.11.19.21266601v1 #medRxiv

link [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.19.21266601v1#medRxiv[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.11.19.21266601v1#medRxiv  (hope link works...)

other bad news; 




This is an article to take note of as it looks ahead to what can be expected if current transmission rates continue. New variants have not been factored into models informing policy and this could be costly

DJ [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/is-delta-the-last-covid-super-variant[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/21/is-delta-the-last-covid-super-variant ;

One possibility is that after the initial dramatic jumps in its genetic sequence, which gave rise to first Alpha, then Delta, Sars-CoV-2 will now mutate slowly and steadily, eventually moving beyond reach of the current vaccines, but only over the course of many years. While scientists are at pains to point out that their predictions are mostly informed speculation, some perceive this as the most likely outcome.

“I anticipate that the kind of evolution we will see is more what we call antigenic drift, where the virus gradually evolves to escape the immune system,” says Francois Balloux, director of the UCL Genetics Institute. “For influenza and other coronaviruses we know quite well, it takes about 10 years for the virus to accumulate enough changes not to be recognised by antibodies in the blood.”

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But the alternative is the sudden appearance of a completely new strain, with game-changing transmissibility, virulence or immune-evasive properties. Ravi Gupta, professor of clinical microbiology at the University of Cambridge, refers to these strains as “super variants” and says he is 80% sure that another one will emerge. The question is when.

“We’ve got a Delta pandemic at the moment,” says Gupta. “This new Delta Plus variant is relatively wimpy compared to the kind of thing I’m talking about. It has two mutations from the Delta strain, I don’t think they are that worrisome and it hasn’t taken off in a big way in other countries. But it’s inevitable that there will be another significant variant in the next two years and it will compete with Delta and it may out-compete Delta.”

Will we see a super variant?

During the latter half of 2020, epidemiologists began to observe signs of a concerning phenomenon known as viral recombination, in which different versions of Sars-CoV-2 exchanged mutations and combined to form a totally new strain.

Thankfully, Gupta says recombination does not appear to be that common, but it remains one feasible source of a new super variant, particularly in parts of the world where sizable proportions of the population remain unvaccinated and viral strains can circulate freely. “Now that Delta is overwhelmingly the key virus, this has become less likely,” he says. “But there are large swaths of the planet that we’re not sampling and we don’t know what’s going on. So it is a very real possibility.”

The second is a series of major mutations, either resulting in a greatly enhanced version of Delta or something very different. It is thought there remains significant scope for this to happen. “While recent variants are versions of Delta, the virus has huge potential to evolve in the future,” says Gideon Schreiber, professor of biomolecular sciences at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel. “More complex mutations can evolve, with simultaneous mutations at more than one position, which may be more problematic.”

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Gupta says that a greater problem, and one more likely to lead to a super variant, is the persistently high infection rate in countries such as the UK, due to the ability of Delta to transmit between vaccinated individuals. “The more infections there are per day, the more chance that there is someone out there, a patient X, who gets infected and their T-cells are not strong enough to clear the infection because they’re immune-suppressed,” he says. “So they end up having the infection over a number of days; they’ve got some antibodies knocking around because they’ve had a partial vaccine response and the virus learns to evade them and then that spills out.”

Earlier this year, Gupta published a paper that showed that this process could occur in severely ill patients who had been administered convalescent plasma laden with virus-killing antibodies. Because their immune system still couldn’t clear the virus, it learned to mutate around those antibodies. It has been speculated that the widespread use of convalescent plasma early in the pandemic was responsible for driving the emergence of variants.

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Hanage explains that one of the reasons why the Delta variant had such an impact is because it grows extremely rapidly within human cells, before the immune system kicks into gear. As a result, people infected with Delta carry approximately 1,200 times more viral particles in their noses compared with the original Sars-CoV-2 strain and develop symptoms two to three days sooner.

Embedded press tend to underestimate risks...the article does not mention the spread of CoViD in non human hosts....

DJ-My goal with this scenario's is to inform, share thoughts...try to get some light on what to expect...NOT to push people into depression and fear !

But looking-with my very limited knowledge-on how this pandemic is going leaves little room for optimism...

Maybe one "spot of hope" could be in that we do NOT know most of this virus, variants...I want to keep some hope on we are getting out of this crisis....

Music; David Soul - Don't Give Up On Us...1976 (Starsky & Hutch) [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY8APrYU2Gs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY8APrYU2Gs 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2021 at 10:00pm

DJ,

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are bad !

Reported cases november 22-reflecting SUNDAY-testing...supposed to be low ! 465,462 weekly trend +10% !

Europe cases 290,521, trend +17% ....Global 5,828 deaths reported, Europe had 3,427 of them trends +0,4/+3%...

In the top 10 for cases the only non-European country is the US still at #1 with 74,156 reported cases in this list. UK, Germany, Russia do not surprise...Hungary at #5 does surprise ! This country has less then 10 million in population...reporting 27,209 cases...NL -23,002 cases-is also making the top 10 at #7...(UK=4xNL population so NL numbers translated to UK would see 92,000 positive tests in just 1 day...).

The bad news is testing is overstretched...it may be even optimistic to think the real numbers are only 2x, 3x the reported numbers...

In many countries (central) politics fail. Governments refuse to go for lockdowns while at regional level, hospitals, all alarms have been going of for days...According to some experts on twitter UK government actively manipulating statistics to stick to "freedom"...still cases trend +9%...

Looking at most alarming trends for cases South Africa +105% (!!!) shows up ! France +82%, Spain +59%, NL +49%, Portugal +48% ....Papua New Guinea +33%, Peru +30% may indicate that what started in Europe now is going global...USA +11%, Israel +9% (!!!!), New Zealand +8%, Canada +0,5%, Australia +0,2% ...85 countries reporting an increase of cases...

Duration is becoming a very major burden on both population-less willing to follow unclear rules and healthcare-with more work for less HCW-ers...overstretched for 1,5 + year ...

So "how bad can it get" ( I did put this question elsewhere on this forum...CRS,DrPH confirmed my pretty grimm view)...without actions we may NOT survive...!

Since we are allmost 2 years in this crisis we may be able to get some idea of what works...combination of lots of "tools" can still limit some of the damage...but cases today may end up at ICU over 10 to 15 days...so the major crisis for most of Europe can not be avoided...

Lockdown-strict-no nonsense...will limit the spread, did a lot lost year in many places...

Masks/social distance as a rule till 2023 ? Duration matters !

Vaccination did limit severe cases...and it is very welcome to further increase vaccinations-but misusing vaccines to reopen may have been the main reason we are in this crisis...with virus mutating around all kind of defenses...There are lots of non mRNA vaccines also doing a good job ! We should not waste time and energy on this discussion now !

So we can get out of this crisis !!!

On an individual level we can limit social contacts, use masks, work/study from home...it may help ! But governments have to do their jobs !!!!

Only international action can get us out of this crisis and politics keeps coming up with empty words....

DJ-I am NOT an expert, NOT neutral or objective..."herd immunity strategy" may still be dominant in most countries...eventhough it is clear by now it does not work !!! Zero-CoViD did limit damage in countries that (had a chance to) use it...in my opinion the only strategy out of this crisis...but it will be a "long walk" ...

The alternative may be worse...as we soon may find out again...

end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 22 2021 at 11:04pm

part 2, twitter etc.

Some NL twitters [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B and [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ...

DJ basic message is we are on our way to "Code Black" ...but politics just does not want to see it (and allready started blaming the population for not following unclear rules...one of the causes of increasing public unrest). The NL story-more or less-may be the same for most of Europe...Those that can slow down disaster fail to do so...

Let me be very clear about NL...political inaction now will result in thousends of deaths in NL till april 1 2022...We are talking about a very major-avoidable-disaster with those responsible in taking steps to avoid this disaster refusing to do their job. 

It is allready clear who will suffer most; the poor that allways have to pay the price for damage done by a rich elite...

In the mean time is the rich elite allready spreading the virus-again-around the globe...Virusses fly for free !

[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu

Two quick hits from Monday genome update. 1st, thanks to another drop of 

 we can see AY.4.2.1 separately for the first time. A little Mannelijke magiër-level playing with the lineage filter tree lets us see it growing (erratically) as a proportion of AY.4.2 https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineages=AY.4.2%2CAY.4.2.1&colours=2%2C3&lineage=AY.4.2.1&date=2021-11-13

DJ Also on NL twitter...testing is at capacity in most places...meaning we will miss a lot of infections and spread...certainly within the vaccinated less likely to get tested...So with even less testing it is even more likely we will miss new (sub)variants...

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ;

Bristol has pretty much been at or above 400 cases per 100k since fucking June. In fact the only time it dipped was when Immensa told them they were negative for a laugh. I mean come on. Bristol ! If you are what "Herd Immunity" looks like we are totally screw. The colour Purple

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Am I really the only person wondering if it is now in the water supply in Austria..

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44,917 UK Cases reported today - that is very high for a Monday (UP 12% on yesterday which is fairly high) So UK is UP 13% Week on Week. Most of this Growth is driven by England which at 36,478 cases is up 16%. Pushes the UK  Day Ave up towards 42k and is bad news.

DJ (Language !) "Living with the virus" is a political slogan not realism....It will keep mutating, getting worse..."Dying with the virus" may be more realistic ! 

One of the reasons why cases are exploding all over Europe may be "opening up for the vaccinated" is a very bad idea !!!! Vaccinated still spread the virus, still get ill....If you do not stop that (translated in a lockdown !) level of infections will remain high...Trust in any political action will drop even further...

AY46.6 with ORF1a:A3571V ? 

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Couple of questions for anyone ? particularly 

 and 

  Looking at AY39 in Austria, Pango has it as B.1.617.2 Usher has it as AY.39 Most of the Samples are from the Institute of water quality. Do they take water samples & sequence from them in Austria ?

DJ Experts trying to find out what is happening...One of the reasons why there are so many Delta(+)sub-variants is that some variants withh a lot of similarity get different names in different countries...making it even more unclear what is going on (as far as I understand it all...)

AY43 Big chunk of Delta in many of the countries in Europe that are having huge second waves. Everyone seems to think its nothing special and its just a founder or reclassification thing. However its now at 5.1% in the UK and increasing at about (VERY roughly) 0.4% a week.

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AY.4.2 up 2.2% on last week now at 16.4% darker colours on map indicate higher prevalence eg Torridge Link to Data is here https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw?lineage=AY.4.2

DJ Earlier new variants of concern were very clear to see in the statistics/samples...With Delta (global 99,5% of the cases=Delta) some sub-variants are increasing, others go down...

What I make of it was Delta had a R0 of between 5 and 8...new types of Delta are pushing that R0 up...and have been doing so for months (in fact april did see Delta explode in India, Delta+ soon after in Nepal...so Delta has had over half a year to "play around" and mutate...

Science is running behind facts...models try to make a realistic view...but so far tend to be much to optimistic...

We are not leading the way on vaccines any longer, in Europe we are mid-table at best.


Afbeelding

DJ Some realism on (booster)vaccines would be welcome...both experts and vaccine producers were clear you need BOTH vaccines AND restrictions...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;




"By the end of this winter pretty much everyone in Germany will have been vaccinated, recovered or died." But, what if the #SARS2 wave nevertheless reappears & by the end of the next winter also everyone's vaccinated, recovered or dead? And the next...

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We will never be "through" with #SARS2 if NPIs are abolished, protection vs. infection wanes after 6 months & variants keep appearing. At best we can say we will attenuate outcomes with vaccinations. Though that ignores #LongCovid & accumulating damage from repeated reinfections. 

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I believe Israel's freshly accumulated immunity & a renewed vaccination (5-11+boosting 12-15) can prevent a wave like last year's. But, soon, a decision awaits whether & when a new round of boosters is needed. The spring wave might prove crucial (in 2020 vaccinations crushed it).

-So, is there any new information Israel has to offer about the future? After falling precipitously for two months, infections lately stalled just below 2020's levels and are worryingly near the moment when Israel's last winter ..

DJ Israel may allready be seeing limits to what booster vaccines can do...underlining the need for Non Pharma Interventions...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding




Almost all the northern states undergoing a resurgence. Part of the US is quickly following Europe’s surge like clockwork. Booster rollout and kids vaccination rollout must be faster—masks rules & ventilation guidelines must be added + mass testing. #COVID19 #MaskUp #ventilation

DJ Besides that-STOP THE SPREAD...why international air travel is on pre-pandemic level in some regions...CRAZY !

DJ I did read (most likely NL news) Saxony-Germany close to triage...unvaccinated may have less perspectives in treatment, may need more time in hospital/ICU so may become less likely to get hospital care in the coming "Code Black"...NL twitter suggesting we may allready be in "Code Black" (in some regions both of NL and Europe) but it may be "kept out of the news to avoid panic"....

One hospital also asking HCW-ers testing positive for CoViD to return to their workplace...indicating how overstretched healthcare has become....Increased violence in hospitals is also increasing HCW-ers with sickleave...hospitals are increasing investments in security...instead of in HCW-ers...

End of part 2....In part 3 I will see if FluTrackers has interesting items... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 23 2021 at 1:24am

Since we are in a very major global health crisis I take room to "get a view" on what is happening...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest; Dr.John Campbell did another video on Ivermectin;

New Pfizer antiviral and ivermectin, a pharmacodynamic analysis New Pfizer antiviral, PF-07321332, C₂₃H₃₂F₃N₅O₄ 

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Dr. Campbell weighs in on this article. I agree 100% with his comment that he is greedy - he wants both effective vaccines and great treatment options. I do not know why the woke culture to trying to make us choose? Why can't we have both?

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I am so "over it" with the US health departments. They all disagree with each other in varying degrees. The mask fiasco is one example. This is why this site recommendation is to consult with your medical practitioner.

As to the India situation - I really like John Campbell but these outbreaks run in waves and the India wave was hitting a downturn when the kits were distributed anyway. I am not sure there is any correlation between the wave downturn and some of the contents of the kits. Overall the kits are probably better than nothing since they include masks and an oximeter. Time will tell as the pandemic is not over.

I would personally love it if any of the known and inexpensive drugs already available were a safe and effective alternative to a vaccine. I am just not convinced. I have not asked for ivermectin or hydroxy. I know that pandemics take a few years to run the cycle. I am not comfortable with taking either long term at this point. I am also not thrilled with two vaccine shots a year - for how long? A couple more years?

If I sound frustrated it is because I am. Since I am high risk I have restricted my outings for more than a year. I was not happy to take the first rounds of vaccine and now I am trying to decide on the booster. Moderna is not approved yet for use as a booster so I have time to consider this. I am not happy about the available drugs either. Masks give some level of protection so I use them. I think as a high risk person I am fairly screwed for the next year at least. I just have to accept this - as irritating as it is.

I know many people are just living as usual. And that is their choice. It is not mine. I respect other people's choices and I hope people respect mine.

DJ The picture remains unclear...however Ivermectin most likely will be in use in lots of poor countries...may have some effect..."many shades of grey"...Maybe some elements of Ivermectin do show effect...offer some perspective...Maybe related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/928413-jci-insight-sangivamycin-is-highly-effective-against-sars-cov-2-in-vitro-and-has-favorable-drug-properties[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/928413-jci-insight-sangivamycin-is-highly-effective-against-sars-cov-2-in-vitro-and-has-favorable-drug-properties ;
Abstract

Sangivamycin is a nucleoside analog that is well-tolerated by humans and broadly active against phylogenetically distinct viruses, including arenaviruses, filoviruses, and orthopoxviruses. 

Here, we show that sangivamycin is a potent antiviral against multiple variants of replicative severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with half-maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) in the nanomolar range in several cell types. 

Sangivamycin suppressed SARS-CoV-2 replication with greater efficacy than remdesivir (another broad-spectrum nucleoside analog). When we investigated sangivamycin's potential for clinical administration, pharmacokinetic, ADME (absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion), and toxicity properties were found to be favorable. 

When tested in combination with remdesivir, efficacy was additive rather than competitive against SARS-CoV-2. The proven safety in humans, long half-life, potent antiviral activity (compared to remdesivir), and combinatorial potential suggest that sangivamycin is likely to be efficacious alone or in combination therapy to suppress viremia in patients. 

Sangivamycin may also have the ability to help combat drug-resistant or vaccine-escaping SARS-CoV-2 variants since it is antivirally active against several tested variants. 

Our results support the pursuit of sangivamycin for further preclinical and clinical development as a potential coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) therapeutic.

DJ Any progres is welcome ! I think there is allready that much research/findings on all kind of medication limiting severity, risk of infection that-if we would be using it on a large scale-could limit pressure on (global) healthcare...But timing has been essential...vaccines much to slow to effect this pandemic enough...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928407-experimental-chewing-gum-may-reduce-virus-spread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928407-experimental-chewing-gum-may-reduce-virus-spread ;

Experimental chewing gum reduces virus in saliva

An experimental chewing gum containing a protein that "traps" coronavirus particles could limit the amount of virus in saliva and help curb transmission when infected people are talking, breathing or coughing, researchers believe. The gum contains copies of the ACE2 protein found on cell surfaces, which the virus uses as a gateway to break into cells and infect them. In test-tube experiments using saliva and swab samples from infected individuals, virus particles attached themselves to the ACE2 "receptors" in the chewing gum. As a result, the viral load in the samples fell by more than 95%, the research team from the University of Pennsylvania reported in Molecular Therapy. The gum feels and tastes like conventional chewing gum, can be stored for years at normal temperatures, and chewing it does not damage the ACE2 protein molecules, the researchers said. Using gum to reduce viral loads in saliva , they suggest, would add to the benefit of vaccines and would be particularly useful in countries where vaccines are not yet available or affordable...

DJ Also welcome news...What happened to Brazil/Sao Paulo mouth wash against CoViD ?  Chewing gum as decoy...with virus particles allready in the mouth sticking to the chewing gum-at least some...may be simple, cheap, affordable.. !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928399-cidrap-feds-tout-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-booster-doses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/928399-cidrap-feds-tout-covid-19-vaccine-mandate-booster-doses ;

Though vaccine mandates remain a hot-button issue, they are helping boost coverage federal officials say, with the Biden administration announcing today that 95% of the federal workforce complied by today's deadline.
The announcement at a briefing today comes amid a steady rise in US COVID-19 activity and a strong push for booster doses, just days before Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, in Europe—well into a fifth surge—unrest flared in a handful of countries as some groups pushed back against stronger government measures to slow the surges that are poised to overrun health systems.

Cases rise heading into holidays

Though cases are well below September levels when the United States was coming out of its summer surge, more than 30 states are reporting sustained rises in new cases, according to the New York Times. For example, cases in New York are up 22% compared to the past week, with hospitalizations up 20%.
At a White House COVID-19 briefing today, Rochelle Walensky, MD, MPH, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), said the 7-day average of daily new cases is 92,800, which reflects an increase of 18% over last week's 7-day average. She added that the weekly average for hospitalizations is up 6%.
For deaths, the number of people who have died from their infections in 2021 has now passed the toll in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, according to data from the federal government and Johns Hopkins.
The number of Americans fully vaccinated against COVID-19 has risen to 59.2%, while 69.5% of eligible groups have received at least one dose, according to the CDC tracker.

Strong federal employee vaccine uptake

Following the CDC's recommendation last week that expanded booster eligibility to 35 million people, federal health officials today pleaded with Americans to shore up their protection ahead of winter and when people will be gathering for holidays.
Anthony Fauci, MD, White House chief medical adviser, detailed the impact of boosters shown by studies in several countries. "Boosters work even better than peak response after the second dose," he said.
Jeff Zients, White House COVID-19 coordinator, said that, over the weekend, 3 million people received their booster shots and that efforts to deliver extra protection are accelerating.
He also said the federal employee mandate is driving more people to get their primary vaccine series and that federal employees make up the nation's largest workforce.
"The goal is to protect workers, not punish them," he said, adding that the small percentage who didn't comply with the mandate will receive education and counseling.

Protests in Europe over COVID measures

As pandemic activity escalates again in Europe and more countries eye strong measures such as lockdowns and vaccine mandates, protests flared over the weekend in some countries' cities.
In Brussels yesterday, protests that drew an estimated 35,000 people started out peacefully but turned violent when some clashed with police, according to Reuters. Some protestors threw rocks and smoke bombs at police, who responded with water cannons and tear gas.
Belgium is averaging nearly 14,000 new cases a day, and last week the country imposed wider use of masks and telecommuting.

DJ It ain't what you say, itś the way that you say it....Mandatory vaccines NEED good communications ! Maybe in healthcare employers may be in a position to make vaccines mandatory....in other sectors employers are NOT in that position...government is.... Also how do you want to control mandatory vaccines ? Will you offer choices (mRNA and non-mRNA vaccines) ? What about boosters ? Under 18 y/o ? 

I am not against mandatory vaccines...we have had them in the past. Point is restrictions, non-pharma interventions do work better...Even vaccinations can not do without NPI/restrictions ! 

We are in this crisis because many governments opened up using vaccination-levels as an excuse to "save the economy"....dropping restrictions...

On that basis I am AGAINST mandatory vaccinations...in my opinion governments did misuse vaccines for political goals...Not to end the pandemic...more PR...

You can not DEMAND people to take vaccines/medication/medical intervention because you-as a government-did make a mess of it ! (But you may strongly advise people to accept both vaccines and restrictions as having the best chance to get out of this crisis...). 

This pandemic is more and more a political crisis...with in general politicians seen as liars...regaining respect may need new politicians...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/928415-infection-herpes-zoster-and-covid-19-infection-a-coincidence-or-a-causal-relationship[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/928415-infection-herpes-zoster-and-covid-19-infection-a-coincidence-or-a-causal-relationshipAbstract

The first cases of COVID-19 were reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Skin manifestations of COVID-19 vary, among which herpes zoster has recently been found to be associated with the infection. We studied the available literature regarding COVID-19-associated herpes zoster (HZ). We searched the PubMed and Scopus databases for available literature till 20th of May 2021 using the following terms: 'Herpes zoster' or 'Varicella zoster virus' and "COVID-19" or "coronavirus disease" or "SARS-CoV-2". This search revealed 87 publications, of which 29 articles met the inclusion criteria. A total of 29 patients had HZ associated with COVID-19 infection. The patients' ages ranged from 7 to 82 years, averaging 56 years. Thirteen patients (45%) were men and 16 (55%) women. We summarized the demographic data, clinical data, comorbidities, treatment used, lymphocyte count, and distribution and timeline of HZ rash in COVID patients. Lymphopenia was prevalent in 86.6% of patients (where lymphocyte data were available). We discuss possible causes of HZ due to COVID-19. More and larger studies are needed to confirm any relationship between these two infections; however, this study may pave the way for similar studies on this topic.

Keywords: COVID-19; Herpes zoster; Lymphopenia; Varicilla zoster virus.

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shingles[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ShinglesShingles and chickenpox are distinct human diseases but are closely related in their life cycles. Both originate from infection of an individual with the varicella zoster virus (VZV). Chickenpox, also called varicella, results from the initial infection with the virus, typically occurring during childhood or adolescence.[1] Once the chickenpox has resolved, the virus can remain inactive (dormant) in human nerve cells for years or decades,[1] after which it may reactivate. Shingles results when the dormant varicella virus is reactivated.[1] Then the virus travels along nerve bodies to nerve endings in the skin, producing blisters.[7] During an outbreak of shingles, exposure to the varicella virus found in shingles blisters can cause chickenpox in someone who has not yet had chickenpox; this initial infection will not trigger shingles, however.[10] How the virus remains dormant in the body or subsequently re-activates is not well understood.[1]

So the virus may be hidden in the body and get reactivited by a CoViD-19 infection...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoster_vaccine  for some also here vaccination may limit risks...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/928422-eclinicalmedicine-mers-cov-confirmation-among-6-873-suspected-persons-and-relevant-epidemiologic-and-clinical-features-saudi-arabia-2014-to-2019[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/other-coronavirus/928422-eclinicalmedicine-mers-cov-confirmation-among-6-873-suspected-persons-and-relevant-epidemiologic-and-clinical-features-saudi-arabia-2014-to-2019 ; Background: Of the three lethal coronaviruses, in addition to the ongoing pandemic-causing SARS-CoV 2, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) remains in circulation. Information on MERS-CoV has relied on small sample of patients. We updated the epidemiology, laboratory and clinical characteristics, and survival patterns of MERS-CoV retrospectively with the largest sample of followed patients.
Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of line-listed records of non-random, continuously admitted patients who were suspected (6,873) or confirmed with MERS-CoV (501) admitted to one of the four MERS-CoV referral hospitals in Saudi Arabia, 2014-2019.

-

nterpretations: With two-thirds of the symptomatic persons developing multiorgan complications MERS-CoV remains the coronavirus with the highest severity (29%) and case fatality rate (21%) among the three lethal coronaviruses. Metabolic abnormalities appear to be an independent risk factor for sustained MERS-CoV transmission. The poorly understood transmission dynamics and non-specific clinical and laboratory features call for high index of suspicion among respiratory disease experts to help early detection of outbreaks. We reiterate the need for case control studies on transmission.

DJ MERS is NOT over yet...I think it may be realistic to expect some further "developments" as long as we are in this CoViD-19 pandemic...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928392-sri-lanka-covid-19-cases-of-unknown-origin-rising-hospitalisation-at-approx-50-pct[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928392-sri-lanka-covid-19-cases-of-unknown-origin-rising-hospitalisation-at-approx-50-pctCOVID-19 infections are on the rise again in Sri Lanka with authorities unable to trace the origin of a majority of daily cases, health officials said on Monday (22), with about 50 percent of active cases currently hospitalised according to government data.

However, the government information department confirmed 31 deaths for Sunday (21), an increase of 11 from the 19 confirmed for the previous day.

Health Services Deputy Director General Dr Hemantha Herath told reporters on Monday that the percentage of cases whose origin cannot be traced is increasing.

The daily caseload has been gradually increasing since Sri Lanka relaxed a lockdown and an inter-province travel ban at the end of October. The information department confirmed 735 new infections for Monday, an increase of 38 from Sunday’s 697.

“Even 700 cases a day is considered a critical situation,” said Dr Herath...

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928391-covid-19-situation-%E2%80%98very-dangerous-%E2%80%99-says-korea%E2%80%99s-disease-control-chief[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928391-covid-19-situation-%E2%80%98very-dangerous-%E2%80%99-says-korea%E2%80%99s-disease-control-chiefThe head of Korea’s disease control agency said Monday that the state of the COVID-19 outbreak here has gone from “low risk” to “high risk” over the last three weeks as the country began its phased return to normal.

Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency Commissioner Jeong Eun-kyeong told a televised briefing that “intensive care beds at Seoul hospitals were nearly full to the brink,” with other metrics worsening all across the country.

DJ The European healthcrisis is turning into a global health crisis high speed...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latests...

What's behind the rapid disappearance of the delta variant in Japan? It could be self-extinction.

BY OSAMU TSUKIMORI
STAFF WRITER
Nov 18, 2021

Why did Japan’s fifth and biggest wave of the coronavirus pandemic, driven by the supercontagious delta variant, suddenly come to an abrupt end following a seemingly relentless rise in new infections? And what made Japan different from other developed countries that are now seeing a fresh surge in new cases?
...
Many scholars point to a variety of possibilities, which include one of the highest vaccination rates among advanced countries with 75.7% of residents fully vaccinated as of Wednesday. Other potential factors are the social distancing and mask-wearing measures that are now deeply embedded in Japanese society.

But the chief reason may be related to the genetic changes that the coronavirus undergoes during reproduction, at a pace of around two mutations per month. According to a potentially revolutionary theory proposed by Ituro Inoue, a professor at the National Institute of Genetics, the delta variant in Japan accumulated too many mutations to the virus’s error-correcting, non-structural protein called nsp14. As a result, the virus struggled to repair the errors in time, ultimately leading to “self-destruction.”

DJ I would love to believe CoViD-Delta getting self-destructive...(the link also has some discussion on it)....cases -22%, high level of vaccinations, older population...Maybe vaccines and NPI doing the job ? Wishfull thinking and over-optimism do NOT help !

-Music ; R.E.M. - End Of The World As We Know It...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0GFRcFm-aY ...

DJ We can not return to an old normal...but "feel fine" new normal does not have to be worse !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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A bit quiet on this forum...no doubt related to US thanksgiving tomorrow...Just the start of a lot of family-get-together spread events in december...

Any serious government in Europe, America's would go for LOCKDOWNS NOW !!!! To avoid further disaster...most people on this forum are aware of the risks...but on an individual level we can NOT stop this pandemic...

DJ,

-numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global cases for november 23 ; 557,723 weekly trend +10%, global reported deaths 8,110 trend +2%

Europe cases 337,068 - trend +17%, deaths 4,349 - trend +3%...given the collapse of healthcare in most of Europe between 1 maybe even up to 10% of that number of people - on a daily basis - may be dead...For Europe we may be seeing daily deaths last week of december between 3,000 and 30,000..

The WHO raised its expectations from 500,000 deaths before spring to 700,000.....if you divide that over 100 days you end up with 7,000 deaths per day...the WHO-Europe region also includes some countries worldometers puts with Asia...The worldometers average for the last 10 days for a smaller region then the WHO-Europe region is allready around the 700,000...

So with the best kinds of optimism I can find the WHO estimate of 700,000 more deaths for Europe is underestimating the crisis allready...I think-only for Europe most likely we are talking about 3 to 4 million deaths till march 1 - 2022 if you also include hospital care in very major crisis...

-My goal with scenario's is trying to get a realistic view of "what is happening"...some of the problems;

.Vaccinated people were told "they were safe" while they are not safe...(In NL "dance with Janssen...young people were told-by our government-get a Janssen vaccine this afternoon, dance this evening....Our "minister of justice" himself breaking rules...did make a "song" about how we could stop wearing facemasks just a few months ago...("Zeg mondkapje waar ga je henen"). 

.Embedded experts did write over-optimistic scenario's that were overstretched to fit political wishfull thinking..."saving the economy"...Limit economic damage has been #1 all the time...control over this pandemic was a minor goal...

.Illusions of "herd immunity"...both "natural" and "vaccine" immunity (vaccines activate natural immunity) would stop this pandemic...some experts/politicians claimed...(In social media Dr. John Campbell was one of them...I do not doubt his expertise, but I very serious doubt his sense of realism...seeing a "silver lining" even in the worst of hurricane-clouds...Unrealistic over-optimistic...).

.Pandemic=endemic wordgames..."living with the virus" non-sense...also the product of an unhealthy mix of some "experts" and "the worst politics can bring you"....Science used for political goals can easily become science fiction !

.Since the virus was/is allowed to spread-also in vaccinated...is spreading for over a year in wildlife/non-human hosts...we now face a number of (sub)variants we have not seen before...

.Testing/contact tracing has run out of capacity in many places...Sequencing was a problem all the time-may be missing a lot of developments now...

In short; We are still driving in a car in a dead-end road but instead of decreasing speed we did increase speed...and the end of that road is getting closer. 

-What to do ?

STOP THE SPREAD !!!! DJ-The only realistic vision is Zero-CoViD !!!! China and a few other (SE Asian) countries are sticking to that idea...For some islands it may be achievable within a year...(New Zealand, Ireland, Iceland...Australia is the only continent (okay Antarctica...) with good perspectives...).

So a "mop-it-up" strategy may be needed...with very strict travel rules to stop spreading the virus around the globe !

Realism on vaccines is needed...They can NOT stop this pandemic, booster-vaccines may help limiting pressure on healthcare..buy time. But reopening because 90% of the population is vaccinated is crazy...has been crazy from the start ! Even 100% vaccination will NOT stop the spread !!!

The present vaccines do a good job limiting severe health issues NOT stopping the spread...why is that ignored ? 

Prepare for a "long road"...getting rid of this virus may take decades...Not getting rid of it may kill us all ! So there is no choice ! (Just like in climate collapse...there is no choice...you have to stop it to survive !). 

-I just watched NL 7 AM news...Is NL a part of the US ? Is NL news supposed to be "neutral" ? @#$#&%* !!! In many ways NL is as indipendent is the former GDR from the Soviet Union was....

Cold wars seem to be global priority; "supporting rebels in Myanmar fighting for democracy"...Syria # 3, or whatever....US trying to regime-change yet another country in its conflicts with Russia-Iran-China (etc). By the way-in some more respected lists of freedom of press the US is at #60 or so...not doing very well...NL, Scandinavia in general in the top 10...In most other lists on access to healthcare, education Scandinavia, NL, New Zealand, other European countries make the top 10...

We have been waiting for a next pandemic for several decades...but it looks like we did NOT prepare for one...."Just in time delivery of patients" was saving costs...with ICU-staff, specialists being very limited...HCW-ers often getting less pay then working in a supermarket can give....

This pandemic is just one of many crises-outcome of bad politics. Starting a war and then letting refugees drown or die in deserts is how "we" see basic human rights...Ping-pong with people at US-Mexico, Poland-Belarus, Greece-Turkey borders....till they are dead...

Rich countries creating lots of problems but putting the pain to the poor...denial as how to get votes populism...

The old normal was very sick....this pandemic is just a symptom...we can do better, we have to do better !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 23 2021 at 11:38pm

part 2,

Growing social unrest...evin in my town...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eehledo3Hlk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eehledo3Hlk

DJ-I do not agree with the protesters that there should be "no restrictions" but I share their frustration and anger on "politics" blaming the public for still being in this pandemic while politics made a complete mess of it....The NL situation may not be that different from many other (European) countries...Germany still has more restrictions...In the UK "BoJo&Co" claim there is no pandemic; manipulate statistics...Embedded press (bbc-the UK-RT....) again NOT doing a very good job. 

Riots do not help...but the present political elite is part of the problem...in many countries "saving the economy-blaming the public"...a total lack of self-reflection...( There are politicians doing a better job...as allways there are exceptions ! ). 

Many countries are on the eve of months of strict lockdowns...the main reason is failing bla-bla politics and embedded experts....

Yes-I am very angry ! And I do expect much more social unrest...Police already claiming they do not have the capacity to maintain a lot of the restrictions. 

Even wider-maybe even worse-"our" healthminister wants to increase ICU-capacity...hospitals again tell him there is no staff for ICU...Politics disconnected with reality...

I am in a very "good position"...groceries can be delivered, I have a social bubble, a private garden...For me it is a different story then for people living with an extended family in an old appartment...Working/school from home is not the same for all...

Some more on the present numbers...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ;

Highest increases of cases in some major countries top 10 (sort of);

#1 South Africa +131%  last week 2,031 this week 4,694 deaths +12% this week 113...summer on its way...

#2  France +78% last week 78,507...this week 140,027 France still has some restrictions...vaccinations may be limited in some (urban) area's...deaths +54% this week 382.

#3 Papua New Guinea +76% part of Oceania we often forget cases last week 881, this week 1,551 deaths +309% last week 23, this week 94.

#4 Spain +62% for cases, deaths -25%

#5 Belgium cases +51%, deaths +31%

#6 Portugal +49%, deaths +39% over 90% of population fully vaccinated....

#7 NL +39%, deaths +52% also high level of vaccinations...

#8 Poland +39%, deaths +75% lower level of vaccinations proberbly one reason for more deaths...

#9 South Korea +32%, deaths +37%

#10 Germany +31%, deaths +15% maybe a bit less vaccinations in some regions-but compensated with more-longer lasting restrictions, more ICU...

Some other countries to watch;

Peru, cases +24%, deaths +22%,

Vietnam, cases +16%, deaths +45%,

USA, cases +6%, deaths +1%,

UK, cases +9%, deaths -6% (excess deaths may be high "of other causes"...false statistics...)

Israel, cases -6%, deaths +107% (last week 14, this week 29) booster-effect

Japan, cases -20%, deaths +57% dr.j.c. video "miracle in Japan" pseudo-science [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1GF0H9V_1g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1GF0H9V_1g on "self-destructing Delta variant"...more likely vaccinations and restrictions showing effect...

India, cases -13%, deaths +5% (numbers at best may give some indications)

Still 85 countries reporting increases. A mix of restrictions AND vaccinations may help. There is NO self-destructive Delta variant ! Not in Japan or elsewhere...this is pseudo science/wishfull thinking..."silver lining in hurricane clouds" non-sense !

Self-destructing virusses claims stop countries from taking action ! 

In my opinion societies are splitting up in 3 groups;

-1. No restrictions/no vaccines (with lots of sub-groups, based on religion, some also climate change deniers etc.)

-2. "Main stream" more or less still accepting present politics/strategies

-3. More radical groups...often relating this pandemic with climate change etc...

Since group 1 and 3 are growing...and both are fed up with present politics there is "a lot of pressure" growing. I think it would be wise if governments would reform to get more public support, increase international cooperation....(or face the consequences...). 

end of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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part 3...twitter/flutrackers

DJ We may end up these months with the pandemic getting a bit more similarity with the Spanish Flu...still it is NOT a flu ! (One could wish it was "just a flu"). Maybe "we" are learning a lesson the hard way ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ (part re-tweets) ;

Dutch hospitals prepare for Code Black. Priority will be given to younger patients, health care workers & those who are likely to have a short stay in the ICU.

Such a terrible and entirely preventable tragedy. The 'luck of the draw to decide' who lives and who dies because healthcare is overwhelmed in NL. All because of lack of basic public health measure and a policy of mass infection. Will the architects of this be held accountable?

DJ The present NL government did make such a mess in many ways...and still get away with it...




Vanaf nu iedere dag tot er echte maatregelen komen. De komende corona crash uitgelegd: https://sargasso.nl/de-komende-corona-crash/ Vandaag 23.000 nieuwe gevallen betekent: - Over 8 dagen 400 ziekenhuisopnames, per dag - Over 12 dagen 80 IC opnames, per dag - Over 16 dagen 70 sterfgevallen, per dag.

DJ The numbers are clear and well known; 23,000 cases today= 400 hospitalcases after 6 days, 80ICU cases in 12 days, 70 deaths in 16 days...Only factor changing is there may no be hospital capacity left...Of course politics could decide to further limit testing..."so cases will go down"....

Also on this NL twitter; "lockdown is bad for mental health" excuse/nonsense...not locking down when needed is far worse ! 

Head of NL-CDC on october 20: we will not see a lockdown this winter....This "expert" also claims medication will save us from now on...Pre-caution seems to be unknown with this "group"....

In NL we have "safety regions" on lower levels. Mayors, hospitals see the crash coming and most likely are allready in "Code Black" modus (hospitals out of capacity to deal with influx). Hospitals drilling for triage...Germany still accepting NL patients as long as they can...

In Eastern Europe situation is far worse...lack of vaccines however does mean "people do not stay that long in ICU-beds" (because they are dead often within hours...).  Vaccination-status itself may not be a criterium for "the last bed", not being vaccinated may mean chances of recovery are that bad you simply will not get in....(a.o. in Saxony-Germany reality...Ukraine, Poland far worse...)

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/24/hard-choices-needed-prevent-months-long-lockdown-outbreak-expert[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/24/hard-choices-needed-prevent-months-long-lockdown-outbreak-expert

It is "incredibly important" that the Cabinet dares to make hard choices if the Netherlands is going to get through this winter without a months-long hard lockdown, medical microbiologist and outbreak team member Marc Bonten said to Nieuwsuur. He echoed the urgency of his colleague Diederik Gommers, ICU expert and OMT member.

Earlier on Tuesday, Gommers urged the Cabinet to stop arguing about the 2G access policy and start looking at a hard lockdown because hospitals are fast approaching "code black." Then there are not enough hospital beds available for everyone who needs treatment, and doctors have to choose between patients. 


"Look at what it is like in hospitals. Look at today's figures. Look at the figures of recent weeks. Look at the support for the current measures and how they are being implemented. Something has to be done, and politicians have to take responsibility for this. Both the Cabinet and the parliamentary factions," Bonten said to Nieuwsuur on Tuesday evening. 

According to Bonten, politicians are currently trying to prevent code black while not taking harsh measures and not coercing anyone to get vaccinated. And that is a combination that will not work. 

DJ Since we did see over 20,000 cases per day for more then a week, increasing ICU (and hospital) staff may be at its limits de facto we are allready in "Code Black" with spreading patients all over the country, sending other patients home (where there may be no further support because care is overstretched there as well...) filling up the last beds...

Staff is a growing, very serious, problem. We may have the beds, the technical stuff, but nobody to work with it left...Most of cases in NL are linked with schools. Unvaccinated children infecting their parents...spreading it further...But also by now a record number of allmost 900 care centers reporting cases the last 4 weeks...These deaths are seen as deaths of old age...not showing up in NL CoViD statistics...So the official number is still below 20,000  while a more realistic number may be around 40,000+ ....

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_B ; "Follow the rules" while by now no one any longer has any idea on those rules....We again have to keep 1,5 meter distance now "as a rule-not an advice" ...If there was police capacity you could get a fine for breaking that rule...

Government going for "2G" so vaccinated/recovered (but not those who tested negative = 3G) still can go to cinema's, restaurants etc...without the social distance rule (because immunity...)....Government totally disconnected with reality....

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 on the UK; Morning Twitter. Today is the day the UK should report 50k+ cases just from the simple math that Wednesdays number is usually 20% above Tuesday. They probably won't of course. The new Loughborough Immensa lab failure and the optics of spreading that number will prevent it. 

Are you guys seeing this cluster in Czech 

 

 

 

 

 

  Delta with S: T19R, V70I  T95I, A123-  T124-  G142D, E156-, F157-, R158G, Q183E  L452R, T478K, D614G, P681R, D950N V70i A123 del T124 del Q183E 

Thank you for speaking out @GuptaR_lab I used to be a trusting follower of @BBCNews but their reporting of the pandemic in UK has destroyed my trust. Grateful for the scientists who post on Twitter. In the past I’d never have imagined Twitter would be more reliable than @BBCNews

DJ Total system failure/collapse....[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator

Yep, it's getting tense again: Israel's R above 1, similar timing as in November 2020. But, a huge difference this time is that 60% of last week's cases are among 0-19 unvaccinated, while at the end of 2020, the 0-19 cohort made only a 1/3 of total weekly cases.
 

DJ More science to ignore...booster 1 may provide 50% of protection from initial vaccinations...booster 2 after 6 months may only provide 25%...This is NOT a flu-virus ! So it would be wise to act like it is a flu...CoViD-19 is far worse !!!

US pandemic response in a nutshell. -Cases & deaths going up -> direct attention to something else. -Also direct attention away from how we screwed up boosters (only 41% of seniors. <30% of >50). -80% of those who have been eligible for months is nothing to brag about.

DJ US may be in a worse shape then most of Western Europe ! 

[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu




A final observation - this variant contains not one, but two furin cleavage site mutations - P681H (seen in Alpha, Mu, some Gamma, B.1.1.318) combined with N679K (seen in C.1.2 amongst others) - this is the first time I've seen two of these mutations in a single variant...

-




Just spotted: very small cluster of variant associated with Southern Africa with very long branch length and really awful Spike mutation profile including RBD - K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H

-



Full Spike profile: A67V, Δ69-70, T95I, G142D/Δ143-145, Δ211/L212I, ins214EPE, G339D, S371L, S373P, S375F, K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H, T547K, D614G, H655Y, N679K, P681H, N764K, D796Y, N856K, Q954H, N969K, L981F

 Another South African variant ? 

A short look at Flutrackers ; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream  (Also some comments on NL police...I may not agree with those views...Though there have been incidents of police wrong doings...) ;  The funniest part is that, the Japanese prof who claimed Delta's over its error
> catastrophe threshold, was referring to a particular mutation: NSP14:A394V
> Which actually is one of defining mutations of all Deltas, has >92% prevalence
> now (100% in Japan), and still growingClown face

Music...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOx2I6DgqXY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOx2I6DgqXY ;

They Are Coming To Take Me Away...Napoleon XIV... crazy clip...watch at own risk...

Mus-

-

DJ

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 24 2021 at 11:09pm

DJ...looking at the end of yesterday-part 3 is a mess...sorry for that....Overload of info/limited time...

I hope US/Canada will have a SAFE thanksgiving !

Still my goal is to share links/toughts on this pandemic...

One of the main points maybe to discuss now is "herd immunity/vaccination strategy"....Did vaccines make this pandemic in fact WORSE ?  While on an individual level offering better protection ? Or would this corona-virus also get worse without vaccines being widespread (but very slow so the virus can mutate around it...). 

[url]https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/[/url] or https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/ has been warning for virus reacting on  vaccines, development towards worse variants...better in evading (vaccine created) natural immunity...Still the "hard side" of his story would be vaccines only for limited groups...accepting the virus doing lots of damage in many others...But avoiding-at least for the time being-virus being challenged by vaccines on a larger scale....(Maybe in other words; "doomed if you do, doomed if you don't"- [url]https://guymcpherson.com/[/url] or https://guymcpherson.com/ on climate collapse...In my words getting killed from a bullet or a bomb..."what is "better"...both bad choices...) 

Numbers to start with [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Global cases 632,417 trend +11%, reported deaths 8,201 trend +2%...

Europe cases 403,517 trend +16%, deaths 4,284 +2%

US cases 104,819 trend +8%, deaths 1,594 +7%

Germany reporting 73,966 new cases 321 deaths...trend cases +28%, deaths +20%...

Vaccines do still offer good protection against severe disease for most...with many western countries high level of vaccinations in several countries up to 50%+ of hospital cases are also vaccinated. But a lot of them would have had better protection if they could get a booster vaccine in time...Without vaccines "the picture would be far worse" is ignoring the fact that Delta (mostly) did interact with vaccine immunity...

Proberbly even the best experts may find it hard to say how the picture would have been now if we did not find vaccines...Fact is most of Western Europe is moving towards another-longer-lockdown... 

Looking at high increase of cases [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table South Africa (+135%) is showing up...Madagascar extreme numbers-due to very poor testing capacity...news on a new SA variant [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928700-new-covid-variant-with-spike-protein-mutations-found-in-south-africa-b-1-1-529[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928700-new-covid-variant-with-spike-protein-mutations-found-in-south-africa-b-1-1-529

New covid variant with spike protein mutations found in South Africa B.1.1.529


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...r-of-mutations


Scientists have said a new Covid variant that carries an “extremely high number” of mutations may drive further waves of disease by evading the body’s defences.

Only 10 cases in three countries have been confirmed by genomic sequencing, but the variant has sparked serious concern among some researchers because a number of the mutations may help the virus evade immunity.



The B.1.1.529 variant has 32 mutations in the spike protein, the part of the virus that most vaccines use to prime the immune system against Covid. Mutations in the spike protein can affect the virus’s ability to infect cells and spread, but also make it harder for immune cells to attack the pathogen.
...
Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London, posted details of the new variant on a genome-sharing website, noting that the “incredibly high amount of spike mutations suggest this could be of real concern”.

In a series of tweets, Peacock said it “very, very much should be monitored due to that horrific spike profile”, but added that it may turn out to be an “odd cluster” that is not very transmissible. “I hope that’s the case,” he wrote.

DJ See also [url]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10238113/New-Botswana-variant-32-horrific-mutations-evolved-Covid-strain-EVER.html[/url] or https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10238113/New-Botswana-variant-32-horrific-mutations-evolved-Covid-strain-EVER.html ...Yesterday I did put a link to [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ....




Small update: this lineage has now been assigned as B.1.1.529:

link at [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/343[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/343 ...Some other countries to watch DRC (former Zaïre...) cases +82%, Peru cases +24%, Laos cases +14%, Vietnam +15%...

By now we may be seeing new (sub)variants getting even more agresive in several area's...In Western Europe, Eastern Europe no doubt also increase of new sub-variants...looking at statistics...[url]https://outbreak.info/[/url] or https://outbreak.info/ may give some indications...

As a non-expert I hope to get somewhat of a "helicopterview" . In my idea NPI-(travel)restrictions, with (booster) vaccines now still may limit damage...but it will take months for that to work not weeks...Dealing with this pandemic should be the only global priority...and still it is not...

End of part 1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2021 at 12:06am

part 2 

DJ-There is a lot of discussion on mandatory vaccinations...problem with that now is it may take 2-3 weeks to show effect/protection while we are sinking into a very major crisis in many places NOW ! 

Lockdowns, masks, social distance, work/study from home will show effects faster...There are risks in vaccines...let us please stay realistic on that !!! Vaccination (some call mRNA vaccines medication...I see that as a wordgame-but do understand the point) in this crisis can limit burden on healthcare...but due to "to little to late" healthcare is collapsing allready in many places...right now !!!

Limits on ICU capacity, staff, care after hospital, is allready showing. 

Some twitter [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ NL Government/Outbreak Management Team "experts" in panic, running for TV shows...Sick people being sent home...at best a care person gets a chance to drop by-leaving sick people behind...hating their job...

[url]https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cognitieve-coronadissonantie-andrea-walraven-thissen[/url] or https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cognitieve-coronadissonantie-andrea-walraven-thissen describing NL (and with that many other countries); over-organized with nobody taking the final responsability...meeting after meeting...words...no action....

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BClear that many people in key discision making/advising positions have never done any emergency/outbreak response. Otherwise they would not wait till the hospitals are overflowing.

DJ "Leaders" that talk till they drop....bla-bla-bla....

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 describing the level of corruption-this in the UK-many other countries seeing the same problem...Privatize the NHS....testing order-worth millions-going to sponsors of the conservative party/BoJo&Co....

In general the western idea has become...if there is a problem-put in a lot of money the problem will go away...Only this time it does not...

Deepti also mentioning refugee ping-pong-also killing people in the channel between UK and France/Belgium...Children NOT getting vaccinated...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator mentioning UK statistics fraud...UK cases have been going up in all kind of statistics...still UK "government" claiming AstraZenica and "natural immunity" is doing a better job the Pfizer in the EU...




Last month, I felt #SARS2 global records will be broken but now I'm wondering if we are going to reach a million cases per day. North America joined Europe plus Asia, South America & Africa have countries experiencing resurgences. The wave started slowly but is gaining momentum.

DJ We most likely will not see a million cases per day...testing will collapse before that...Allready overrun in many countries...lots of people can not get tested...If German estimates are correct-any real number could be 2x to 3x the "official one" we may allready be over the 1 million cases per day...

Testing in India, Latin America, South Asia in general, Africa has been poor from the start...




Als antwoord op  en 
C.1.2 is very bad, B.1.638 is worse in terms of escape (if it still exists), B.1.640 is even worse (and it's definitely alive and spreading). But B.1.1.529 is off the charts bad. Yes, all we have is sequence, but that sequence is what a restart of the pandemic would look like.

Can it get worse ? Yes it can ! Phantasy-lovers like Dr.J.C. see "Japan-miracles"...while vaccines/restrictions in Japan create-for now-lower cases...I would love to believe in "self destructing variants" but please ;wishfull thinking and over-optimism kills !

Experts claiming corona-virus "did run out of mutations/variants" are unrealistic dreamers...

Few realize that a 30 y.o. has ~ 1/750 chance of death per year. Covid multiplies that! 
If you look at it dynamically, pandemics affect life expectancy in a flat way across the board. Everyone's life expectancy is shortened in ~ the same manner.

DJ A pandemic is ALLWAYS !!!-a dynamic proces !!! Virusses mutate...the more widespread the more variants...We have run out of any realistic perspective on how widespread what variant is where -in what (non-human ?) host-some time ago...

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022Pro infection, GBD collaborator MP meets @nadhimzahawi seeking to increase infections in schools, relying on a disinformation paper that was thrown out of court in the US as misleading #r4today #edutwitter  https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1463601767590027266?t=5fjiwfOvaolnK54wweOwfQ&s=19

DJ One of the most sad parts in this total insane disaster is "politicians" PUSHING for natural immunity....Totally unbelievable insanity...

Just spotted: very small cluster of variant associated with Southern Africa with very long branch length and really awful Spike mutation profile including RBD - K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505H https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/343

-





This one is worrying and I’ve not said that since delta. Please get vaccinated and boosted and mask up in public as the mutations in this virus likely result in high level escape from neutralising antibodies 

As a reminder we have this new variant as a result of failure to control infections and it likely arose in a single individual. Please play your part in limiting transmission

DJ Panic is a very normal reaction in this phase....Still the tools to limit this pandemic did NOT change ! Like in all other pandemics in history it is very simple ! S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   ! ! ! ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928702-emergence-and-widespread-circulation-of-a-recombinant-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-north-america[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/928702-emergence-and-widespread-circulation-of-a-recombinant-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-north-america

Emergence and widespread circulation of a recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage in North America


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....19.21266601v1


We therefore support the designation of the B.1.628 major cluster as recombinant lineage XB in the Pango nomenclature. The widespread circulation of lineage XB across multiple countries over a longer timespan than the previously designated recombinant XA lineage raises important questions regarding the role and potential effects of recombination on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
link from https://twitter.com/medrxivpreprint/...75519388270597

DJ Most likely we may now face worse subvariants of Delta AND new variants increasing in several regions !

Stay safe & sane !



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 25 2021 at 10:50pm

DJ, 

The "Botswana/new-SA variant" (most likely soon named "Nu" is making the news....If present vaccines still have some function against that variant we soon will find out...Not stopping international air travel will soon result in cases showing up all over the globe...We keep repeating history over and over...

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may give indications on other variants...

Global cases "only" going up +7%, deaths -2% due to limited testing/reporting from US/Canada thanksgiving....US cases -8% may be used by some reporters/politicians as "news/succes" etc...Just like Japan booster vaccines/restrictions got linked with (pretty insane) claims of a self-destructive Delta-variant....Lots of garbage in official news...Governments themselves main producers of fake-news !

So where are cases going up and why ? Trends; 

South Africa cases going up 188%...last week 2,537 cases, this week 7,299 cases...increase of testing will ALSO result in higher number of cases...SA also sequencing it [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu reporting on it (and other news...). 




Here's how mutations in #SARSCoV2 Nu variant (B.1.1.529) will affect polyclonal and monoclonal antibodies targeting RBD. These assessments based on deep-mutational scanning experiments; underlying data can be explored interactively 

-

Took a look at the spike mutations in B.1.1.529 this evening, and colour coded them (details below)...there is...not much green

DJ "Nu" may take over "Delta" proberbly meaning Delta+ R0 could be 8+, Nu even higher...International as good as travel stop...worldwide lockdown...would be wise...but we just let it happen again ! 

Madagascar, Somalia  high increases ? , Ghana cases +147%, DRC +82%...Namibia +26%, however Zambia cases -8%, Angola -6%, Zimbabwe -31%, Botswana -38%....Very likely the "new SA/Nu variant" spreading in some Africa regions...but testing is very problematic...And this "Nu-variant" no doubt also mutating full speed...(and officially not even a Variant of Concern...named Nu...even that may take weeks...).

Hong Kong allready has one case, Israel 1, possibly 3 in vaccinated persons from Malawi travel...So the "Nu-variant" did see free air-travel to Asia...no doubt soon detected in Europe, America's..."Global virus-fly-for free programms need revision"...

Other regions with high increases, statistics as early warning for possible new variants (in Delta or just "new") ;

France cases going up 75%, Spain 51%, Belgium 45%, Portugal +44%, Poland +32%, Germany +26% (Germany #1 in reported new cases top 10; 76,132 new cases 315 deaths +21%), NL +23% most likely most related to Delta sub variants...

In South America Peru cases +23%, Paraguay +17%, Bolivia +10%...I have my doubts on what (sub)variant may be spreading there...

South East Asia Vietnam cases still +14%, Bangladesh +11%, Laos +9%...would that still be Delta ? 

A look at [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=VNM[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=VNM  hints at Delta AY.57 99% cases (rest Alpha) but latest update oct.25....

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PER[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=PER for Peru several Delta subvariants...AY.102 (24%), AY.39.2 (21%,) AY.122 (11%), "others" (9%)  main detections...latest update oct.29..."picture" showing rapid changes" growth of AY.102 and AY.39.2...but "old info"...

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, A non-expert look at twitter , etc (=not peer-reviewed science)....

Can we get this growing crisis under control ? YES !!! Stop free (air)travel for virusses, increase (ad random) testing also in vaccinated....international lockdown....It did take the new SA/"Nu" variant just TWO WEEKS to become the dominant sequence in South Africa...indicating high level of infectiousness/R0....Cases in Hong Kong, Israel....what are we waiting for ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/UseBy2022[/url] or https://twitter.com/UseBy2022 ; We have launched a tracker for confirmed and probable cases of B.1.1.529, the new coronavirus variant. It will be updated several times a day https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker

DJ link [url]https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker[/url] or https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker  latest info 84 confirmed cases in 4 countries, 992 proberbly...2 countries (SA and Israel...Hong Kong, Botswana)...many countries will have labs doing extra time...Since "Nu" like Alfa has 69/70 deletad simple PCR testing will give easy indications on the spread...(if finding them is the goal...).

CODE RED ON B 1.1.529: MONITOR THIS https://youtube.com/watch?v=Vh4XMueP1zQ Fantastic video of 

 and team of scientists in SA and interaction with Government Brilliant work on B1.1.529 

 

 

DJ video starts at min. 3...

The new variant B.1.1.529 appears to replace Delta, as South Africa enters the 4th wave. The variant is concerning because it seems to be highly transmissable and can evade immunity, both.Rood gezicht The new variant will be reviewed, classified and named by the World Health Organization.

DJ It may be to early to see much about how good vaccines offer protection...Alfa (also del 69/70) started in october 2020...South Africa on its way to week longs of hollidays...parties etc...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator also a lot about the SA variant; 

As 

 would say, the name of the game is (and has been) elimination: eliminate the virus or be eliminated (figuratively & literally) by it. It is irrelevant how you feel about this, nature sets the rules of the game and it is a zero sum one esp against the Nu(ke) variant

Time to take serious action ! And I am not seeing that yet...

I update a new Nu-line in latest news...twitter is almost only about the "Nu" variant....so end of part 2...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, 

Most of the news these days will be on the "new pandemic" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant  and for good reasons ! 

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has 578,229 cases (+5%), 6,852 reported deaths (-3%). With US very limited reporting/testing we may see record high numbers next week...

Europe cases +15%, deaths -0,6%...Africa cases +30%, deaths +6%...

Germany again reporting over 70,000 cases per day...trend +26%, 374 deaths +31%...Belgium so far the only country reporting Omicron case(s)...trend +39%, deaths +14%...

When you look at both the limited case/travel info and statistics Omicron must be widespread around the globe...It overtook Delta in South Africa in two weeks...it may be the global dominant VOC before christmas...

Maybe as a reminder-this is the end of november...winter still has to start ! (I can see melting snow from my window...). We do know how [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Alpha_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Alpha_variant did go...since history keeps repeating-vaccines may have made matters worse-knowing recent history may help...

-[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/26/unvaccinated-arent-blame-covid-lockdown-says-health-minister[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/26/unvaccinated-arent-blame-covid-lockdown-says-health-minister DJ Bad, failing politics...terrible communications, experts (Marianne Koopmans to name one) doing a very bad job over and over again...

Vaccines offer good protection against severe disease...but without very good restrictions they worsen the pandemic via vaccine-evasive variants..It is a dynamic proces...virusses mutate all the time...So increasing vaccines without stopping the spread will result in variants that evade vaccins....

Proberbly at least three ways;

-immuno compromised people that have active virus in (parts of) their body for months mutating, picking up variants..Omicron in part is a collection of Alfa/Alpha, Beta, Delta mutations...

-high number of infections in a short time. People living close together (Brazil, India, South Africa, Nigeria etc.) do see high level of spread bringing high level of mutations resulting in new variants (most of those variants do not last that long...but the few that do are "tested" for "survival" so by definition "bad"). 

-US deer, NL/DK minks, cat/dog-like (zoo)animals did see CoVid infections and mutations ([url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cluster_5 was just one minor outbreak). It is very likely CoViD may be jumping over and over from human to non-human hosts v.v. From (SE Asia)  bats to the cat on your lap...

So we did allready have a lot of mutations before vaccines showed up...Allowing virus-spread during incomplete very slow global vaccination was inviting variants for a reaction....

And of course all the time we had free travel for virusses/variants...limiting travel only AFTER it was allready to late...over and over again...(Marianne Koopmans...one of the best virologists in the world was very wrong by claiming (february 2020 ?) "NL did not have direct flights from Wuhan so we would not get the virus in NL"...it is NOT the job of a virologist (but an epidemiologist) to tell where the virus is going...Virologists job is to say what the virus/mutations can do...(and no doubt she is very good in doing that-so stick to that job !!! With all respect !!! YES ! Experts did see years of study, experience...but "experts" often are "only" experts in their science ! )

I remember how Henry L Niman did get it wrong with his expectations on flu-outbreaks...he may have been top in virusses...but "not that good" in seeing what the virus would do in several regions...

-Another aspect that is growing in importance by the hour is how humans react. Here in NL most people were very willing to follow the rules in the early stages...but by now I do not have any idea what kind of rules the NL-CDC did think of this time...I go my own way, make my own plans...

Support for NL government strategy is decreasing...People are taking risks serious, however "rules did become a sad joke"...

In NL news "unvaccinated will get natural immunity protection"-non sense ! For the rest the "news" is about how further restrictions will effect shops, restaurants...protests....Proberbly good info on virusses, pandemics may be above the intelect of may "journalists"...However still a lot are trying to do a good job ! 

But "bad news" is "bad advertising"...so a lot of info going via "alternative media"....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Part 2..

Some other aspects of the present global crisis;

-If the Omicron variant is NOT yet widespread in Europe/US (etc) we may be in a much worse situation then when it is allready widespread. European cases were quite low mid october...Germany less then 10,000 daily cases most of the time...Germany now is facing up to 70,000+ cases per day...Lots of other countries in the same scenario...If Delta-variants were the reason for this "explosion" of cases...and Omicron would be able to make matters even worse "we may need to make other plans"...

If Omicron would be airborne over tens of meters, ignoring vaccines, maybe to small to be stopped enough by a lot of masks the picture would get "very dark"...however that is not the picture I get from Southern Africa...it is bad but not that bad...

-Another point may be in some larger cities over 50% of households are single-households...The "City is the livingroom"-idea does not mix with this pandemic. 

If dealing with this pandemic is a years-long strategy we may have to rethink social contacts...Human relations matter a lot in this pandemic ! People looking for a safe bubble others trying to escape from an unsafe bubble...

Governments do have an active role in this ! Home-violence allready is a police matter. Public (mental) health for all age groups should also deal with this social aspect-trying to improve it to get pandemic-proof. 

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/the-new-virus-variant-has-lots-of-mutations-that-does-not-yet-mean-its-very-bad.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/11/the-new-virus-variant-has-lots-of-mutations-that-does-not-yet-mean-its-very-bad.html ;

Giving up Non-Pharma interventions was a very bad idea....How bad Omicron turns out to be we will have to find out...we do not yet have that many cases and with that answers...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxlYyZ08cEg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxlYyZ08cEg dr. John Campbell on Omicron...

DJ-Dr.J.C. has been mixing good info with bad perspectives/interpretations...He is good in communicating...but tends to be "unrealistic overoptimistic" often...If you do not see the risks as they are you may not be making the right preparations...

From close to "vaccinating us out of this pandemic" to "this pandemic is now endemic" maybe Dr.J.C. did more damage then "real fake news"....

We will learn in the coming days, weeks more on this VOC. Most of the info I expect to get from some twitter-accounts...NOT "news" or dr.j.c. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2021 at 10:42pm

DJ, 

I do not like high numbers of cases increasing in Laos/Vietnam...bats in that area do carry lots of coronavirusses that may jump to other hosts...Also in South America some countries keep reporting increase of cases for weeks...Peru did see an earlier variant...Cases going up in Brazil as well (and some other countries also.) What variants are spreading there ? 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ may be getting more and more pointless...NL is at max-testcapacity for several days...a lot of other countries may have reached maximum test capacity as well. People at testing stations getting ill themselves is allready decreasing test capacity in NL...

An increase in NL cases mean more people test positive...but around 100,000/120,000 tests per day is maximum capacity for now.  Over 20% of the tests are positive in NL for days...(WHO rule <5%, ECDC rule <3% to claim you control an outbreak...)

Global cases "only going up 2%"...because the US (cases -31%, deaths -33%) is in an extended "thanksgiving weekend" with low (only hospital cases ?) reporting and testing...So "yes global deaths -4%"...is a reporting issue...coming week numbers will get "corrected"...

Since vaccinated were allowed to spread virus/variants around the globe Omicron most likely will be dominant worldwide before Christmas...It has to be much more infectious if it can "wipe away" Delta in South Africa only in 2 weeks...

Claims that Omicron is "milder" is panic control...We still have to find out how Omicron behaves in more vaccinated countries. Is (Western) Europe allready in a high % of Omicron ? Sequencing to little to late ? 

[url]https://twitter.com/florian_krammer[/url] or https://twitter.com/florian_krammer ;  However, the fact that European countries only detected it in travelers after South Africa and others warned about it, probably means that many cases so far went undetected. It also tells us a lot about genomic surveillance in some high income countries.

DJ Cases exploding to testing capacity levels in many countries may indicate Omicron is allready a major factor. (Closing airtravel with Southern Africa most for PR reasons...governments acting as if they care, do still have some sort of control...they completely messed it all up ! Allowing early 2020 Wuhan airtravel spread around the globe was stupid...Repeating that total incompetence TWICE in 2021..april-Delta flying for free from India, now Omicron flying in vaccinated...for that matter we have a different Omicron version in the rest of the world..its airtravel hosts were vaccinated ! is criminal ignorance...). 

Some "press" allready started "vaccines still work", "most likely mild" non-sense...goal was to limit further restrictions.."saving the economy"...

I take a look at twitter but most of it will be Omicron related...I post it there...

What a total mess...If I wanted to put some music it would be "crazy" related...(but maybe I am just that angry...)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 28 2021 at 9:25pm

DJ, 

Breakthrough infections on a larger scale reported from South Korea, India, US...most likely in lots of places...My "idea" is Omicron very likely allready widespread...In some European countries that see numbers explode the last 2 weeks (Germany, NL, France) Omicron maybe allready 20-30% of the cases ? 

I hope nobody on this forum had the illusion "we could stop it now" ...After reopening airtravel (for vaccinated) you do import new variants before you detect them...Given Omicron has a (possible) R0 of 10 to 30 (it did outcompete Delta in Southern Africa in just 2 weeks) you only have to have a few cases to start high speed spread...

Vaccines/natural immunity seem to have limited effect...We will learn more this week on how widespread Omicron allready is. How good immunity works. The worst finding would be ADE...antibodies spreading the virus...

As good as all imported cases to outside Africa regions were in vaccinated people. Did other passengers also get infected ? Will they test positive later on ? The KLM flights from SA did see around 10% of the passengers testing positive...(with just being tested once)...can that give some indication on how many cases did travel "out of Africa" ? 

Another question is how widespread is Omicron in Egypt ? In other African countries ? Qatar/Doha, Dubai, Singapore are international air travel hubs...people switch flights...and virusses ? 

This coming week we will allready get a much better picture....

-Numbers;

[url]https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker[/url] or https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker now also 2 cases from Canada, 8 possible cases from France...Africa and Europe have most of the detected cases...Israel so far the only Asian country...Canada, Australia...South America and Antarctica are the only continents missing...

How does Omicron spread in animals ? If that goes "better" then Delta then in fact this pandemic is "multi-species"...both human and non-human hosts spreading it...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  a few remarks;

US did not report a lot of cases because of an extended thanksgiving weekend. We will see compensation for that the coming days; higher US numbers...

South Africa most likely does/can increase testing-will find more cases-Omicron is the dominant variant in that region...numbers will go up..

Europe allready on maximum testing capacity in to many regions. If numbers do go up it may indicate more of the tests are "positive"..(NL may see 20% of tests positive going up to 25% tests positive). So number of tests may be stuck...most likely number of cases also going up...

Omicron is spreading high speed around the globe..Stopping air travel AFTER the spread is PR/show...

If indeed most of Europe allready has 10%+ Omicron cases now how could we have missed that ?????

Global reported cases 391,405 trend +2%, deaths 4,511 trend -4% US limited reporting for days is giving a false perspective !

US cases 20, 835 trend -31%, deaths 102 trend -33%...by limited testing/reporting during weekends the US numbers "unbalance" global statistics...

When looking at the top 10 for countries with highest reported cases;

Germany at #1, UK, Russia, France, NL (!!!), Turkey, USA, Poland, Vietnam, Italy...South Africa comes at #29...

Highest number of "new" deaths;

#1 is Russia, Ukraine, Mexico, India, Turkey, Vietnam, Philippines, USA, Greece (!!!), Romania...South Africa at #56 reporting only 6 "new" deaths...

South Africa cases however +231%, deaths +128%...

Europe cases +11%, deaths -2%, North America cases -28%, deaths -26% (due to limited US reporting). Asia cases -0,4%, deaths +3%.

South America cases +7%,  deaths +15%  with so far no Omicron cases being reported from that continent what is happening there ????

I am most interested in new cases because that gives a view on what to expect, what is developing...

Paraguay cases +26%, Argentina, Bolivia +14% (Bolivia deaths +83% !), Uruguay cases +12%, Brazil +11%, Colombia +10%, Peru +6%...

Is Omicron spreading high speed in South America ???? Another (sub) variant ????

Africa cases +40%, deaths +6%....problem is both testing and sequencing is "very limited" for most of Africa...(South Africa claim to be very good in both testing and sequencing...24% fully vaccinated..in [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gauteng[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gauteng that would be 37% ....Very high level of vaccination for African norms !!!).

Oceania cases +7%...Australia cases +15%...they detected 3 Omicron cases, with another possible case...did they also miss (some/lots of) cases ? 

In Asia Vietnam cases +26%, Laos +13% are area's of interest ? What variant is spreading there ? South Korea cases +28%, Taiwan +41%, Hong Kong +32%...

End of part 1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 28 2021 at 10:20pm

Part 2,

"Act-after-the-fact" leadership is one motor behind this pandemic; doing to little to late over and over...But also what role do some "experts" play-underestimating risks all the time ?  I am willing to accept the "excuse" politics has in following bad advice from over-optimistic experts...

The mix of Media-Experts-Politics (MEP) so far has done a terrible job.....public support for any rules has dropped because of their very bad job...

Of course I would love it if this pandemic would be over before dinner-time !! It does not work that way however...just like in the "climate change" discussion we have to look at the way we live...Some people are destroying the planet and since they are the rich 1% they de facto are the ones in power...money rules !

Some twitter/flutrackers...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-new-coronavirus-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=streamHospitalizations in Gauteng SA have tripled in the last 2 weeks (ICU + 'High Care'). Disease doesn't seem 'mild' at all. [reference: Dr. E. Feigl-Ding]

DJ Also SA deaths +128% does not give the picture of "mild disease"...(spread by the MEP so "saving the economy-no new restrictions"...One reason we have the EU is national governments want to go for "European answers" so they have an excuse for inaction...). 

Maybe on [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gauteng[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gauteng ;

Situated on the Highveld, Gauteng is the smallest province in South Africa. Though Gauteng accounts for only 1.5% of the country's land area, it is home to more than a quarter of its population.[5] Highly urbanised, the province contains the country's largest city, Johannesburg, which is also one of the largest cities in the world. It also contains the administrative capital, Pretoria, and other large areas such as MidrandVanderbijlpark and the affluent Sandton. As of 2019, Gauteng is the most populous province in South Africa with a population of approximately 15 million people according to estimates.[6]

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/929029-tracking-covid-19-variant-omicron-emergence-november-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/929029-tracking-covid-19-variant-omicron-emergence-november-2021 

DJ Now the weekend is over we will see an overload of info...[url]https://globalnews.ca/news/8408492/canada-omicron-variant-covid/[/url] or https://globalnews.ca/news/8408492/canada-omicron-variant-covid/ most "no-news-nonsense" but (Canadian Omicron cases) travel from Nigeria may be interesting...Nigeria cases +11%...but testing is very limited...

Twitter

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator ;




Monitoring wastewater for viral load estimates outbreak size In just a few weeks, in Pretoria S. Africa (north of Johannesburg) viral load detected in wastewater has reached similar levels as the peak of Delta This at least indicates that transmission may be remarkably swift


Afbeelding

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1,5K



DJ; Good news is we have many tools ...however sewage water indicating viral levels allready at Delta-peak high with SA cases +231% is catastrophic. Even if the outcome would be "milder disease" as soom like to claim the very high number of patients on top of overstretched-by-far healthcare will cause major disruptions...

If you would like a more conservative estimate of the ratio of the Re value of Omicron relative to that of Delta you can take the current Re (1.9) when >90% of infections are Omicron and divide it by the Re on Sept 23 when all infections were Delta (0.7) = 2.7. Still very large!


Afbeelding

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48



DJ [url]https://twitter.com/twenseleers[/url] or https://twitter.com/twenseleers Leuven-Belgium University...biostatistics...Of course other "experts" (in virology etc) do not like the numbers....MEP (Media-Experts-Politics) keep downplaying risks to a level that is criminal..."there is a small fire" when the house is on fire is misleading...




Omicron has exceptionally large number of mutations. That's easy to say but misleading. What we always mean here is that it has a large number of FIXED mutations. A fixed mutation is one that virus continues to propagate. World of difference...

Words matter...




Urgent correction is needed to the many breathless (re)tweets this evening relaying news that antigen Lateral Flow Tests work against "the" Omicron variant https://twitter.com/CiesekSandra/status/1464925734741368837?s=20 ... significant diversity apparent in Nucleocapsid gene (detected by LFTs) in Omicron.

Also important to know-top priority-do tests work still ? 

case in point, here's Omicron RBD sites 496, 498, 501, and 505 (which appeared all consistently variant in first sequences observed)... so when labs begin to report neutralising antibody titres vs "the" Omicron variant , the question will be exactly WHICH one was tested (!?)

We still need to learn such a lot ! 




and not just S-gene dropout / target failure alone. Speaking of which, there are also Omicron variant viruses that DON'T have S-gene dropout, so not clear to what extent this is diagnostic. May be misled more by countries targeting sequencing at S-gene drpouts in coming days. 3/n

More then one "form/type" of Omicron ? 

DJ-My perspective; Not only is Omicron very likely allready very widespread, there may be sub-variants, some of those sub-variants maybe evading (some sorts of) testing ??? Sequencing will tell what "segments" can be detected via (what kind of) testing...

We may see more cases with symptoms testing negative for CoViD....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 28 2021 at 11:16pm

part 3, 

One other high priority is what do antibodies do with Omicron ? Do they slow down/stop infection or do they spread infection ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement if they would spread infection vaccinations make matters worse ! More antibodies=more spread !!!

Of course such a question you may not find in the "mass media", MEP (Media, Experts, Politics) rather blame the unvaccinated (or China, Putin whatever...) . Blame-games, polarisation, make matters worse ! 

Omicron is making this pandemic worse and we need international unity-the best we can-to deal with this pandemic. 

Let me be very clear...in history pandemics did end civilizations ! Ignoring those risk is making those risks larger !!!

One can visually see in both those graphs that the slope is steeper than before which implies a higher R.  The R for Gauteng plotted below.  It's somewhere between 2 and 3.


Afbeelding

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and  




So, first a spectacular rebound from the Omicron "scare" & new stock-market record highs, then top in two weeks, after the December 15 FED meeting with the announcement of the accelerated taper? Something like "China contained it" February 2020 top. Really? History repeating?
Citeer Tweet

DJ Top-priority for MEP is economy...not the pandemic...they will go on downplaying the risks even with bodies piling up next door !

What a day eh Half the world now thinks Omicron is just a common cold. And it became LESS severe but adopting just about every single evil bastard mutation (except P681R) from all the other variants that have wreaked havoc. Hows that work then ? Is it just too confused to kill

Misinformation, "positive news", "silver linings"...All indications are Omicron ;

-Does spread faster

-Ignores (or even worse uses) immunity

-Does bring severe disease (also in young age groups). 

Most of the world should go in a strict lockdown, as good as all (air) travel should be stopped...but what we get is more PR bla-bla....

Vaccines did buy us some time...Omicron could be the end of that extra time...get real !

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/omicron-extremely-mild-says-doctor-who-first-discovered-strain-numerous-mutations[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/omicron-extremely-mild-says-doctor-who-first-discovered-strain-numerous-mutations So countries closing borders, increase booster vaccines to stop a mild variant from pushing away Delta ? Please !

End of part 3...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 29 2021 at 9:04pm

DJ, 

Numbers ;

[url]https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker[/url] or https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker 21 countries now reporting (limited) suspected Omicron-cases...205 have been confirmed...DJ-I expect Omicron is very likely allready widespread. Some community spread in UK schools., Israel..We will see lots more cases from lots more countries today...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator trying to see how vaccinated people/natural immunity is doing in Gauteng/SA...80% of hospital cases (with Omicron) in unvaccinated...however most of them may have been reinfected...It will take further study to see how many of them are reinfected. 

Claims that Omicron would give "mild disease" most of the times do not mix well with 151% increase of CoViD deaths in SA. Cases in SA +283%...in part because of increase of testing. 

Global numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 465,392 cases reported...however a lot of countries at maximum testing capacity...Global cases +2%, deaths -3% (both numbers influenced by US extended thanksgiving-weekend low reporting). 

Africa cases (testing limited at best in most of Africa) +59%, deaths +5% (both numbers pushed by high SA numbers). 

Maybe NOT related to Omicron (maybe other subvariant ?) 

South America cases +8%, deaths +15%...Argentina cases +41%, Paraguay +28%, Brazil +10%, Colombia +7%, Peru +1%...

What is spreading there ? 

Also in Asia cases +0,5%, deaths +2%...

Taiwan cases +78%, Hong Kong +53%, South Korea +25% ...Omicron related ? In Vietnam cases +28%, Laos +14% -both seeing high numbers before Omicron news came...did Omicron come from SE Asia ? Or is another variant showing up ? 

Bangladesh cases also +3%...????

DJ-Delta most likely still the main variant in Europe (cases +8%, deaths -1%) France cases +61%, Spain +45%, Portugal +35%, Italy +25%...so in SW Europe cases going up fast...Belgium cases +18%, Germany +16%, Poland, Slovakia, Finland +14%, Denmark +10%...UK +4%, NL +3% may be related to limits in testing capacity and governments doing a very bad job !

In North America Mexico cases +16%, Canada +14% ...US not reporting major numbers due to an extended weekend...

Statistics can give an indication both for new variants, lack of restrictions, how governments are (not) dealing with the crisis...

-twitter/etc;

A lot of news on Omicron...I may put that in that section. Some main points;

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator (very good reporting !) ;

This plots Rt as a function of intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape. With high levels of population immunity, a hypothetical Omicron virus with modest R0 but partial immune escape will spread faster than a Delta-like virus with high R0 but little immune escape. 9/15
Deze collectie weergeven


Afbeelding

DJ; MEP (Media-Experts-Politics block) will keep spreading non-sense news "saving the economy"....Omicron may not be stopped much by present vaccines/immunity...




18) UPDATE— the #COVID19 hospitalization surge is now 4x in 2 weeks. Late reporting upped it from 3x yesterday to 4x today in the #Omicron-epicenter of Gauteng Province Vlag van Zuid-Afrika. This is an acceleration it seems.

DJ Unwelcome news by alarmists...for the MEP-block for whom saving the economy is the ONLY goal....

[url]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/young-kids-make-up-10-of-hospital-cases-in-omicron-epicenter[/url] or https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/young-kids-make-up-10-of-hospital-cases-in-omicron-epicenter

Children under the age of 2 account for about 10% of total hospital admissions in the omicron epicenter Tshwane in South Africa, according to the National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

DJ Even Bloomberg can not hide reality in full...

From SA ; Today, I spent a big part of my day talking to genomic and biotech companies as soon we will run out of reagents as airplanes are not flying to South Africa! It will be 'evil' if we can not answer the questions that the world needs about #Omicron due to the travel ban!

DJ MEP (Media-Experts-Politics) again going for PR/show..."stopping a virus" that they gave every oppertunity to spread...so now in fact they "shoot the messenger" by stopping (some) air traffic/tests etc. getting to SA-region...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latests; a new virus is created, presumably in an unknown South African immuno deficient patient
treated with antibodies.
it spreads quickly and pandemic waves around the world are expected with millions of deaths
and billions diseases and trillions of costs..
It has an unusual number of mutations not seen before and suggests that this may become
common now and will probably happen again.
And all that SA and WHO has to say is don't panic and complain about travel bans.

DJ How "news" "politics" are dealing with this pandemic-killing thousends each day-is beyond bizarre...MEP (Media-Expert-Politics block) are NOT interested in dealing with this pandemic at all....just some crazy show...just like climate change..."act as if you are acting"....

"How to make a carreer"; Dress well, smile, show your "friendly" face at any oppertunity so "deciders" will see you....most "leaders are puppets, straw(wo)men"...without any idea's but they may look good in pictures...

Populist culture...empty politics....good in creating problems..[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/29/thousands-left-financial-uncertainty-tax-offices-black-list[/url]  or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/29/thousands-left-financial-uncertainty-tax-offices-black-list  denying any problems with a big smile and a wink...

Most people love it....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 3:56am

ok, So we have a dangerous variant that spreads easily and has an increasing mortality rate.  What can we do to live thru it ?  Even if the virus is stopped in it's tracks  by a new vaccine, how long will it take to reach us ?  My  cousin who works for major drug company told me that it could be up to 6 months before the vaccine reaches the market.   Biden can't promise that a lockdown won't take place.   It's almost a given that the variant will spread and change even more.    So, we better act as if the vaccine doesn't exist for awhile.  We may have lockdowns.  The reasons to panic is a leadership that tells you not to panic. 

ME163 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 4:26am

https://youtu.be/nR0lOtdvqyg


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Take care all 😷😉💉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 6:25am

So DJ we are saying it seems more deadly seeing the rise in deaths in africa.  Anyone looking and analyzing numbers have an idea how much more?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 6:26am

ME163, One of my "fears/worries" is we will end up with some variants with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement ...immunity system not fighting but spreading the virus...as an outcome of a global vaccination campain lacking any strategy, plan...taking much to long giving "the virus/variants" all the time to react...

Omicron may not be the only new virus...I see statistics in Laos/Vietnam, South America going up...unclear if that is still a Delta subvariant ? With higher level of infectiousness-more cases we will see more variants....Level of vaccinations/immunity is still increasing so "the virus" will evolve around that further...

NL, Scotland now looking at older samples (back to nov. 15) to see if any of them had Omicron...spread did start earlier...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/30/omicron-variant-netherlands-week-first-discovery[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/30/omicron-variant-netherlands-week-first-discovery

The Omikron variant of the coronavirus arrived in the Netherlands a week earlier than was previously known. In two separate test samples taken by the GGD on 19 and 23 November, the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) found the variant, which is considered to be one of serious concern.

The test samples contain an abnormality in the virus's spike protein. "This gave rise to the suspicion that it was the Omikron variant," according to the RIVM. Further research into the genetic material of the virus confirmed this theory.

DJ So at least one person tested positive for what turned out to be Omicron on november 19 in NL...very likely after getting symptoms or information of an infection in contacts...both suggest infection took place 3 to 4 days earlier (?) , november 15 or 16 ? It is now november 30...if Omicron "generations "would take (I think it was) on average 4,5 days...and would have an R0 of 2 (as example) the 1 case november 15 would see 2 more cases november 19..4 more cases (+2+1 also still infectious 2x2 +2x1=4+6) 10 cases november 19...those 10 cases still further spreading another 20 around november 24/25...30 cases then...by now 30 cases + 2x30 cases=90 cases from 1 single case november 15 ? 

(I do not know how long the Omicron-virus person does spread the virus...R0 of 2 is just easy for calculation...If it would be R4 (in an area with people more vulnarable; care center, school ?, maybe that number would be even higher...).  

The Belgian case [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant was detected november 26...[url]https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf[/url] or https://assets.uzleuven.be/files/2021-11/genomic_surveillance_update_211126.pdf (page 7) ;

Over the last month, we identified 47 positive test results associated with both a Cq <26 and a SGTF. These samples were distributed over the last 23 days, with a higher frequency during the last week (Figure 6). These samples were analyzed in the 8 different federal platform laboratories. Figure 6: Number of positive (Cq < 26) PCR results from the 8 federal platform laboratories which show a SGTF. SGTF is typically caused by a 69-70 deletion in the Spike gene, which is systematically present in the Alpha and Nu variants, but also occasionally among other variants of concern. The numbers above cannot be considered as B.1.1.529 alone. These samples will be systematically investigated in the coming days.

DJ Earliest case november 2 of del69/70 ...may be an indication for Omicron (Figure 6 at link). The travel to Belgium from Egypt-via Turkey was on november 11. Since there is still a lot of air travel Omicron most likely did spread "a lot"...If it turns out the recent increase/explosion of European cases was caused by Omicron "surveilance/monitoring did not do a very good job"...

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BSo today we learn: 1) Omicron was circulating in The Netherlands at least a week before the travel bans; 2) Omicron was found in Germany in someone with no travel history and no contact with travelers. Travel bans are pointless; the variant is already in community transmission. twitter.com/geoffreyyork/s…

DJ Community spread (also) in a,o, UK, Israel...most likely also in the US...(just not yet reported). 

-roni3470 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table has statistics/trends ...SA cases +283...in part due to increased testing (if you test more you will find more cases, if you test les...) . SA deaths +151%...

-ksc...I try to get a realistic view the best I can...balance different views/info...To only major point most agree with is that we do need to learn much more...And we will find out lots more in the coming days...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 6:39am

Be careful with anything Feigl-Ding tweets, as he routinely misrepresents the facts. The Dr. who provided the data for those graphs ripped Ding apart for misrepresenting the data. He's a well known liar and fear porn merchant...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 8:37am

Southern African statistics could rise a lot, but they were close to zero following the previous wave of illness in July.   So a relatively high % increase may not mean too much until the case levels reach that of the last wave.

For example South Africa's peak number of daily cases was 26,245 in July, and the recent peak was only 3,220 on 27th November. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/


These low numbers make it hard to tell just how deadly Omicron is, although it if spreads more rapidly than other varients then there could well be more deaths even if the Case Fatality Rate is lower.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 9:30am

although I feel that is accurate, I also see the other side.  If you have one case and it doubles to two then 100% increase isn't bad, but when you get to 3200 cases and have a 100% increases in cases, then I feel otherwise.  Also, we know that exponentially increases over time so that is scary too!  Just my opinion.  I hope it turns out like the last one they were worried about, I can't remember the name, but Delta proved to be a stronger competitor and wiped it out.  So hopefully it truly is nothing to worry about!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 10:28am

Dutch Josh, I'm also concerned about ADE (antibody dependent enhancement). It was ADE that stopped all previous trials of mRNA vaccines for coronaviruses because it occurred in all of them and quite why scientists think they've conquered it now, I don't know. There is no evidence to suggest that they have and what worries me is because the current Covid jabs were rushed through to general distribution without any long term testing, they have no way of telling about the ADE. 

Secondly, the current vaccines were developed for Covid over a year ago and since then we've had the Beta and Delta variants. I heard an excellent analogy on the radio recently about this when a doctor said If you come to my office and ask for a flu jab, how would you feel if I said hang on a minute, let me rummage in my vaccine fridge for a minute,,,,,,oh yes here we are, I have flu vaccine from 2013, will that do? He was referring to the fast evolution of the flu virus and how the vaccines have to be constantly updated to work against them and we are currently using a covid vaccine developed for Alpha and Covid has mutated so quickly that it is almost irrelevant now. I think he's making a good point particularly in light of Omicron with it's incredible 32 mutations on the spike protein alone.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 1:03pm

When I look at  [url]https://twitter.com/trvrb[/url] or https://twitter.com/trvrb

This plots Rt as a function of intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape. With high levels of population immunity, a hypothetical Omicron virus with modest R0 but partial immune escape will spread faster than a Delta-like virus with high R0 but little immune escape. 9/15


Afbeelding

DJ then Ajpha, Beta would be in lower left, next-worse variants-to develop and spread beyond Omicron - X, Y, Z, would be in the right upper corner...high spread by evading immunity (because immunity is the obstacle to overcome for the virus)...

But again...I am not an expert...(i.m.o expert may end up with tunnel vision...in a pandemic you need a helicopterview...) ...

Delta had over 150 subvariants...Since Omicron is much better in spreading it may see more mutations resulting in even higher number of subvariants (200+ subvariants early january ? Omicron global dominant virus ? Just trying to give a scenario....). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement#Conclusion[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement#Conclusion ;

When an antibody to a virus is unable to neutralize the virus, it forms sub-neutralizing virus-antibody complexes. 

Upon phagocytosis by macrophages or other immune cells, the complex may release the virus due to poor binding with the antibody. 

This happens during acidification and eventual fusion of the phagosome[59][60] with lysosomes.[61] 

The escaped virus begins its replication cycle within the cell, triggering ADE.[1][4][5]

DJ How far is Omicron from ADE ?????

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/30/testing-shows-omicron-coronavirus-variant-spreading-netherlands[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/30/testing-shows-omicron-coronavirus-variant-spreading-netherlands ; One person in the Netherlands who was determined to be infected with the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus did not recently travel outside of the country. It is not yet clear how they acquired the infection, a spokesperson for the RIVM told Nu.nl. 

-

One of those samples was collected on November 19. The other was four days later. It was not clear where the two people reside.


The RIVM told Nu.nl that those two people do not have a direct connection to each other. One of them had traveled in a Southern Africa country before their coronavirus test. It was not revealed which countries that person visited.

The remaining infection concerns the person believed to have been infected in the Netherlands. A source and contact investigation was not completed by Tuesday afternoon.

and [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/30/couple-released-forced-quarantine-tied-omicron-coronavirus-fears[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/30/couple-released-forced-quarantine-tied-omicron-coronavirus-fears 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 9:46pm

ViQueen24 posted a link in this general discussion part of the forum from the SCMP on Chinese anti-CoViD drugs...very good article, very welcome in this phase of the pandemic !

DJ,

Some thoughts ;

-A crisis is a tunnel with an exit...it may be a very long tunnel, you may panic if you can not find the exit...but there will be some exit...

-December 1; some differences between SA and north part of the globe on Omicron (by the way O-micron means "small o"=o...O-mega =large "O"=O)

 SA is on its way to summer, holliday season...we are on our way (north part of this globe) to winter..

 SA has a younger population, lots of HIV, "north" has an older population...lots of other diseases..

 SA may have a high level of vaccination for African standards but "limited" compared to NW Europe, some parts of North America....

-With community spread of Omicron now detected in UK, Israel, NL (at least) and very likely Omicron being around first half of november it looks more likely Omicron could have played a role in the explosion of cases in Europe...

-Vaccines do/did offer good protection against severe disease (for most) however the "western" vaccine strategy (opening up with a certain level of vaccinations-against science warnings !!!)  may be a "total disaster"! 

Important to see the difference between individual protection vaccines can give and the way vaccines/immunity effect the pandemic. In my (non-expert) opinion vaccines did buy us some time...time we again wasted...

-Western "strategy" on/in this pandemic is made by a "club-of-clowns"...Media-Experts-Politics (MEP) mix "saving the economy" , ignoring pandemic risks...basic idea "kick the can down the road", "time will solve this problem"...The pandemic as yet/just another bussiness oppertunity "market(s) can solve"...If there is a problem you can not solve with a billion $/€ then you put in a trillion $/€...you "just create the money"....

-Outcome is this pandemic has been worsening for almost two years now....most likely killing tens of millions...Support for western governments is dropping...giving room for all kind of idiots...anti-science....

-Politics still use "divide & rule" blame games creating polarization...They created the problems they now claim to be willing to fight...

-For now we will have to "live with the club-of-clowns" ...living with the virus however is living with a worsening pandemic ! Just like living with climate collapse it is not a realistic option !

-A way out of this pandemic is still possible ! Better treatments, wise restrictions do work ! Vaccines maybe can play a role as well-but we need a much better strategy ! As long as vaccinated spread the virus there have to be restrictions also for vaccinated ! Contacts=infections....So limiting contacts helps ! There is a list of things we can do...but we have to use ALL those things to deal with a very serious risk !

-Communications on this pandemic is a total disaster...ignoring thousend of deaths but high-lighting "restrictions on training for sports"...stupidity ! (Educate journalists ! Some of them maybe should be better of in another job...!)

-We have to balance "tunnel vision" (some experts) and "helicopter view" ...science can deliver "parts of the puzzele" but you need a wider view to complete the puzzle.

-Main "weapon/tool" "we" have is sharing info....Educate the voters...we deserve better ! 

End of part 1...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 10:00pm

DJ,

Numbers;

-Brazil reporting two Omicron cases [url]https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker[/url] or https://newsnodes.com/nu_tracker Now 23 countries reporting detection of (possible) Omicron cases. DJ-Again-Omicron most likely did play a role in the explosion of cases of Europe we did see in november...To what level we will learn later on...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics also has a Saudi case...2 cases from Nigeria...

Monitoring/sequencing simply is to limited and slow...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=ZAF[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=ZAF lots of info from 21/23 of november...Omicron soon may be having lots of sub-variants...due to high speed spread=lots of mutations...(Delta had over 150 subtypes...).

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ reporting 587,982 new cases (weekly trend +1% - due to US thanksgiving-long weekend/low reporting) , 7.883 deaths (-5%). 

April 29 this year did see 904,010 new cases linked to Delta-outbreak in India...real numbers must have been much higher...January 8 did see 844,896 cases-linked to Alpha spreading from the UK...Omicron may have been first detected in southern Africa (in 4 diplomats november 11 in Botswana...would love to find out where those diplomats came from !). This does not mean Omicron originated in southern Africa...closing all air traffic to that region is "stupid" PR...after the spread...Leaving southern Africa also without medical tools for testing/sequencing looks like "some countries" want to punish the messenger...

Earlier peak in daily "new deaths" january 27-17,520...In january this year several days did see over 17,000 deaths being reported-linked to Alpha as well-2 to 3 weeks after the peak in Alpha cases...April 29 did see 15,854 deaths reported-linked to Delta...most likely the real numbers must have been much higher...

So-as a non-expert-following crises/pandemics for decades (first on Recombinomics then on this site) and with some history background;

Omicron may follow the path we did see from Alpha a year ago...more or less mirror it...Numbers november 2020 and november 2021 on a global level not that much different...

November 30 top 3 for cases;

US at #1 with 106,876 new cases...trend -17% due to four days low reporting/thanksgiving weekend...

Germany 55,880, trend +12% at #2, France at #3 with 47,177 new reported cases trend +61%...peak of increases shifting from NW Europe to SW Europe...For the US Mexico trend +14%, Canada +12% will give some indications on a more realistic US trend...

Looking at trends; 

Europe cases still +7% , 355,933 of the nov.30 cases were from Europe ( around 60% of ALL cases ?)-deaths -1%-nov 30 did see 4,421 European deaths-also around 60% of the global numbers...indicating Europe at a very high level of cases/deaths...

A 28 countries in Europe reporting increases out of 47...Romania at #46 with cases -31% but from an extreme high level !

Africa is the only other "region" reporting increases; cases +64%, deaths -0,7% (deaths going down while cases go up that fast indicating to be at the beginning of a peak...if deaths are higher in % then cases often indicating an end of a peak...deaths follow cases...people first get infected the die...). 

South Africa cases +309%, deaths +59%...Due to Omicron testing did increase a lot...(by witholding testing material lower testing will result in "lower cases"...don't test, don't tell on a global scale...A cynical way of "crisis control" ..if you can not control a crisis control the news...Media-Experts-Politics strategy). 

Eswanti (former Swaziland) reporting an increase of cases of 829% most likely with very limited testing...a bit more testing in combination with an infectious virus can cause such an "explosion in statistics"...17 cases detected last week, 158 this week may offer more realism...Zimbabwe +354%, Seychelles +236%, Malawi +168%, Namibia +73% may give some indication on Omicron in southern Africa...Egypt +3%, Nigeria +52%, Morocco +6%...

Zambia -4%, Angola -12%, Botswana -20% indicating some southern African countries may have found ways to limit cases ? In general most of Africa has "very limited testing" meaning statistics/trends may not offer much (realistic) info...

In Asia Lebanon cases +60%, Taiwan +51%, South Korea +23% could see Omicron increasing...Vietnam cases +31%, Laos +13% ...high increases for weeks...(DJ Did Omicron start in SE Asia ???? Did they not-yet-sequence it ? Or is it still Delta ???) ...

In South America Argentina +48%, Paraguay +27%, French Guyana +24%, Bolivia +18%....Peru now -1%...If Omicron was imported into southern Africa by 4 diplomats South America may be another region of interest....Point is those 4 diplomats may have come from any country...picked it up during travel(s)...The introduction/start could be maybe even have begun with those 4 diplomats not telling much of the country they came from...

Israel cases -18% (last week 2,871 cases, this week 2,355..).  Israel has 4 confirmed Omicron cases, 12 suspected...at least some community spread...With a population of 9,3 million...high level of (booster)vaccination-but a young population...Omicron spread may be showing up in Israel soon. 

End of part 2

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 30 2021 at 11:56pm

part 3; twitter etc. (If there was no news I could start a poll on the question of me-DJ-being to dominant on this forum....For me-this forum, sharing info/ideas is helping me to deal with the global horror story this pandemic is...Maybe helping others with trying to bring some info, a realistic view-bot false hopes...but real hopes...But there is an overload of info...). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latests;

JOHANNESBURG, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Omicron coronavirus variant detected in southern Africa could be the most likely candidate to displace the highly contagious Delta variant, the director of South Africa's communicable disease institute said on Tuesday.
...
"We thought what will outcompete Delta? That has always been the question, in terms of transmissibility at least, ... perhaps this particular variant is the variant," Adrian Puren, acting executive director of South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD), told Reuters in an interview.
...
Puren said it was too early to say whether Omicron was displacing Delta in South Africa, since local scientists have only produced 87 sequences of Omicron so far.
...
Anne von Gottberg, a clinical microbiologist at the NICD, said it looked like infections were rising throughout the country.

On Monday, an NICD presentation a flagged a large number of COVID-19 admissions among infants aged under two years as an area of concern. But von Gottberg cautioned against linking that with Omicron just yet.

"It looks like in fact some of those admissions might have started before the emergence of Omicron. We are also seeing that there was an increase in influenza cases just in the last month or so, and so we need to be really careful to look at the other respiratory infections," she said.

"We are looking at the data very, very carefully, but at the moment I'm not too sure that we can link it definitively to Omicron."
...
https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ys-2021-11-30/

-

Two doctors in Israel infected with suspected Omicron variant. Triple vaccinated (with Pfizer vaccine I assume since it is Israel). Presumably infected despite full PPE [*my assumption]

Omicron COVID variant: Two Sheba doctors confirmed infected

"Regarding the first doctor, the hospital said in a statement on Monday that “the doctor is vaccinated with three doses of the coronavirus vaccine, his condition is mild and he is improving,” adding that he does not need any medical attention."
"The second doctor, also a cardiologist, was likewise fully vaccinated." [*which means 3 shots in Israel] https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wel...variant-687412

-

Omicron variant: the "light at the end of the tunnel" that will end the covid epidemic?
The new variant could sign the end of the epidemic.
...
...."Less and less aggressive"

If that is the case, then why are the ICU and 'High Care' admissions in Gauteng SA up 5x in just 2.5 weeks??

To me this article is just more media driven unwarranted optimism. The hospital data from S. Africa strongly argues the opposite !

DJ I try to get an as realistic perspective on this pandemic as I can...I would love to believe Omicron is the "agressive but mild" variant turning CoViD 19 into a cold like virus...I would love to believe Japan had a self-destructive Delta variant...but I want to see that kind of news translating into statistics...

Omicron increasing, highly infectious..not mild in many cases may be a more realistic view. 

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator (re-tweets) ; 




Als antwoord op 
Hi, yep was aware of that — that dataset is updated every day, and I always retrospectively update previous weeks’ numbers in the chart. I updated the chart earlier today for both cases and admissions:


Afbeelding

DJ Statistics, sewage can give early indications on what variant is spreading where...Omicron simply does not look good !

With healthcare stretched beyond its limits (in NL patients that need ICU care getting [url]https://www.fphcare.com/en-gb/hospital/adult-respiratory/optiflow/[/url] or https://www.fphcare.com/en-gb/hospital/adult-respiratory/optiflow/ in stead...we have to prepare for a crisis getting much worse very fast (not slow degradation...more exponential collapse-like). 

Infectiousness approx 30% more than delta. For the unvaccinated, 2.4 times greater chances of developing serious symptoms – a significant figure. Caveat: very preliminary data to be confirmed by press release of 

 in the next few days

DJ We still have tools left to monitor developments...but some countries ran out of testingcapacity...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/30/rivm-new-dutch-covid-infections-stable-reproduction-number-falls[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/11/30/rivm-new-dutch-covid-infections-stable-reproduction-number-falls may be fake-news from a government agency...how do you know that if you ran out of testing capacity...? It is under the radar !

[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ ; 'Something like a Red Team is really necessary..The idea was never a tough competition but to keep each other on their toes’. In science it’s called peer review which we applaud. Yet “peer review” of “evidence” for the Dutch covid policy was not welcome.

DJ Many countries had strategies based on denial and wishfull thinking..."silver linings"...bla-bla-bla and anti-science in part "produced" by "embedded experts" following political orders...Media-Experts-Politics "powers that be" living in a phantasy world...[url]https://twitter.com/mzelst[/url] or https://twitter.com/mzelst NL numbers may have between 40,000 and 80,000 per day...with the (much to ) limited testing capacity it is impossible to get real numbers on NL ...also in NL sewage sample reporting seems to run into problems...

(Another NL news point is the legal steps to stop an anti-vaxer in his campain...15,000 people supprting a court-case...DJ...Why did NL media give so much room to "idiots" ?)

My dad needs to go to urgent care for a non-covid-related issue and I can’t send him BECAUSE THEY DO NOT SEPARATE COVID PATIENTS FROM NON-COVID BECAUSE THE EFFING 

 does not require it!!! My brain is literally exploding.

from [url]https://twitter.com/danaparish[/url] or https://twitter.com/danaparish .......

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; EXPLOSIVE—We now learn Trump had tested positive for #COVID19 **3 days** before his first debate against Joe Biden, says former chief of staff Mark Meadows—positive test on Sept 26th, same day as this WH’s infamous superspreading SCOTUS nominating event:Rug van hand met omlaag wijzende wijsvinger https://theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/01/trump-tested-positive-covid-before-biden-debate-chief-staff-mark-meadows-book

DJ Then US president starting a sper-spread event at the White House...media covering it up for over a year...

[url]https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer[/url] or https://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemer ; Does S-gene-drop-out (SGTF) always mean Omicron? Really important: no! The deletion (S:60/70del) causing this has popped up many times in SARS-CoV-2, including in Delta! Great thread by @alliblk! Impt to check with sequencing, especially if no clear link to travel/another Omicron twitter.com/alliblk/status…




The higher our estimate for the prevalence of Omicron, the higher the probability that someone with SGTF has Omicron. Importantly, it's very unlikely that Omicron was around in Europe more than a month ago. It would have been spotted by the thorough surveillance.

DJ His estimate is that Omicron started to play a role (only) in november in Europe...Omicron may have started in september in SA region ????

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/ DJ Germany did keep most restrictions so an increase of cases may not be influenced by lifting restrictions...Cases going up fast end of october...Delta sub-variants...going up further in november may see growing Omnicron-growth....[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/laos/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/laos/ statistics were going up since end of september....(Again due to what virus ??? Does Omicron have a relation with SE Asia ????

Looks like SAGE is on same page as me. There's so much riding on knowledge we won't have for 2 weeks. So we should act now as if it will be bad and relax if it isn't. BBC News - Covid: Omicron may require 'very stringent response', say Sage scientists

[url]https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59484322[/url] or https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59484322




surveillance.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 3:19am

Josh, you can keep going!   I seem to have less time recently for this forum, but it is good to know the information will be here.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 9:17am

Well that africa graph is down right scary!  yikes!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 9:39am

Thank you, josh.  


I am concerned about the new variant.  I think it will be much worse than before and will kill more people.  Look at the exponential rates of growth in the virus. It is time to consider raising the level to 5.   We are going to be hit hard by this viral hurricane.   Think of it like Katrina or Hugo.  We need to get some sense of urgency here.  I do think that this will be a social disaster.  We have been in contact with the school district.  They are making contingency plans for a lock down .   My sister works with a major insurance company. They are revising all of their actuary tables.   Life insurance may be very hard to get in the future.   I guess that the next few weeks and months are going to be a sense of dreadful foreboding.  We may just have to go to total lockdown.    

ME163 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiminNM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 11:02am

Josh - your posts are invaluable!  

One thing you said really stuck out - "time we again wasted". That is so mind boggling to me... as is the fact that vaccinated people from day one took it as a 'get out of jail free card'.

Since I'm both high risk and have a moderately compromised immune system the most I did was switch from an N95 to a surgical mask. Even outdoors! I've been unmasked around TWO masked people this entire year. (my Dad and a friend who always wears her mask) - and that was only because I was having anxiety attacks and couldn't breathe)

I've not been unmasked around an unmasked person since Delta took over. And I only ate out twice before then. Outside, with mask on unless actively eating.

I know lower risk people with healthy immune systems didn't need to maintain restrictions like that, but, eliminating them completely? I will never understand it, because living with asthma I'm so used to having to be responsible for protecting myself.

And yeah, we'll know more in 2 weeks. Until then it should be act as if it's going to be bad news.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 12:48pm

Originally posted by KiminNM KiminNM wrote:

Josh - your posts are invaluable!  

One thing you said really stuck out - "time we again wasted". That is so mind boggling to me... as is the fact that vaccinated people from day one took it as a 'get out of jail free card'.

Since I'm both high risk and have a moderately compromised immune system the most I did was switch from an N95 to a surgical mask. Even outdoors! I've been unmasked around TWO masked people this entire year. (my Dad and a friend who always wears her mask) - and that was only because I was having anxiety attacks and couldn't breathe)

I've not been unmasked around an unmasked person since Delta took over. And I only ate out twice before then. Outside, with mask on unless actively eating.

I know lower risk people with healthy immune systems didn't need to maintain restrictions like that, but, eliminating them completely? I will never understand it, because living with asthma I'm so used to having to be responsible for protecting myself.

And yeah, we'll know more in 2 weeks. Until then it should be act as if it's going to be bad news.

You're not alone with taking precautions to protect yourself so carefully, a cousin of mine in the UK is in the extremely clinically vulnerable group and she's doing exactly the same. She's wearing a mask whenever not in her home, she's using social distancing and if people come to visit, they visit in the garden on two tables that are 3m apart. All her visitors - and there aren't many - are doing lateral flow tests on the morning of the visit. She's having her groceries delivered. It's a bummer but she's making the best of a bad situation and praying that it'll end soon. The flip side of the coin for her is that her specialist has told her that if she catches Covid it will kill her. That's quite a motivating statement. 

I do hope it ends soon and that you continue to keep yourself safe.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 12:52pm

Josh I agree with the other comments, your posts are very valuable to this forum and you have a well balanced view of the situation. I'm grateful that you take so much time to extrapolate information for all over and present it so succinctly to us. 

It appears the world will have to wait a week or two to find out what Omicron will do and whether if will prove to be more lethal than the other strains, but fingers crossed it will be milder and faster than Delta.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 1:23pm

KiwiMum, others thanks....

The picture I get from the info I did put on a few other spots here on this forum give me to following picture;

Omicron is 3x as infectious as Delta.

It may almost ignore immunity.

The SA/Gauteng-Johannesburg picture is certainly NOT better for hospitalcases then earlier variants.

AGE/NAVGEM-UK say robust action is needed NOW.

Healthcare was allready close to breakingpoint because of Delta - Omicron is WORSE !

Since governments fail we have to take care for ourselves and go to lockdown. 

(Others will be better in political influence...the picture I get from twitter is a lot of science is very clear-action is needed now !) 

I hope very much to be very wrong !

DJ Stay safe & sane !


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 2:57pm

Why ADE Hasn't Been a Problem With COVID Vaccines

      

— Even with new variants, it's unlikely antibody-dependent enhancement will be an issue

        

      by             Veronica Hackethal, MD, MSc, Enterprise & Investigative Writer, MedPage Today                

                  

  A computer rendering of antibodies attacking the COVID-19 virus   

                        

Early in the pandemic, scientists engaged in a flurry of discussions about the best way to construct COVID-19 vaccines to ensure their efficacy and safety. Some of these discussions centered around antibody-dependent enhancement of immunity (ADE), a potentially deadly immune phenomenon seen with other viral infections and vaccines.

So far, there have been no reports of ADE with COVID-19 vaccines. But the concerns about ADE with COVID-19 vaccines have resurfaced with the emergency of virus variants. What exactly is ADE? What do we know from past experience with it? And why do experts say it's a non-issue with COVID-19 vaccines?

Features of ADE

While ADE can arise by different pathways, perhaps the best known is the so-called "Trojan Horse" pathway. This occurs when non-neutralizing antibodies generated by past infection or vaccination fail to shut down the pathogen upon re-exposure.

Instead, they act as a gateway by allowing the virus to gain entry and replicate in cells that are usually off limits (typically immune cells, like macrophages). That, in turn, can lead to wider dissemination of illness, and over-reactive immune responses that cause more severe illness, Barry Bloom, MD, PhD, of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told MedPage Today.

"The cause of ADE is having antibodies to a virus that don't neutralize it. That enables the virus to be gobbled up by cells that have receptors for antibodies, but not the virus. That's the way of getting virus into cells that it ordinarily would not infect," Bloom said.

ADE can also occur when neutralizing antibodies (which bind the virus and stop it from causing infection) are present at low enough levels that they don't protect against infection. Instead, they can form immune complexes with viral particles, which in turn leads to worse illness.

What Does Past Experience Tell Us About ADE?

The classic example of Trojan Horse-style ADE comes from dengue. This virus comes in four varieties. They are different enough from each other that past infection with one does not always generate antibodies that match well enough to protect against a different variety.

ADE has also occurred after vaccination for dengue. For example, in 2016 a dengue vaccine was developed to protect against all four serotypes and given to 800,000 children in the Philippines. Among children who were vaccinated and later exposed to wild-type dengue, 14 died, presumably from more severe illness. Since then, the vaccine has been recommended only to children 9 years and older who have already been exposed to dengue.

Another classic example comes from the U.S., when ADE occurred during a clinical trial for an inactivated vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). In 1967, children who participated in the trial and received the vaccine developed more severe RSV illness when they later encountered the virus in the community. Two toddlers died. The vaccine was associated with immune complex formation that caused lung obstruction and enhanced respiratory disease, pretty much stalling RSV vaccine development.

Similarly, cases of ADE also occurred with an inactivated measles vaccine that was being developed in the U.S. in the 1960s. After vaccinated children developed more severe illness, the vaccine was withdrawn. The live, weakened measles vaccines that are currently in use in the U.S. have not been associated with ADE.

ADE a Non-Issue With COVID Vaccines

Scientists say that ADE is pretty much a non-issue with COVID-19 vaccines, but what are they basing this on?

From the early stages of COVID-19 vaccine development, scientists sought to target a SARS-CoV-2 protein that was least likely to cause ADE. For example, when they found out that targeting the nucleoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 might cause ADE, they quickly abandoned that approach. The safest route seemed to be targeting the S2 subunit of the spike protein, and they ran with that, wrote Derek Lowe, PhD, in his Science Translational Medicine blog "In the Pipeline."

Scientists designed animal studies to look for ADE. They looked for it in human trials, and they've been looking for it in the real-world data for COVID-19 vaccines with emergency use authorization. So far, they haven't seen signs of it. In fact, the opposite is happening, Lowe noted.

"[W]hat seems to be beyond doubt is that the vaccinated subjects, over and over, show up with no severe coronavirus cases and no hospitalizations. That is the opposite of what you would expect if ADE were happening," he wrote.

Furthermore, ADE is an acute problem, and it can be very dramatic. If it was an issue with these vaccines, we would have spotted it by now, said Brian Lichty, PhD, an associate professor in pathology and molecular medicine at McMaster University in Toronto.

"It'll kill you quickly. In all the places I'm aware of ADE happening, it is an acute, mostly cytokine-driven event," he told MedPage Today.

The one exception may be an inactivated whole-cell, or "killed," vaccine developed by China. That vaccine uses alum, the same adjuvant that was used in the measles and RSV vaccines that caused ADE in the 1960s. The Chinese inactivated whole-cell vaccine could "conceivably" generate ADE like those older vaccines, according to Bloom.

"I don't think that vaccine is ever going to see the light of day in the U.S., and it may not even be worth mentioning. There have been no actual cases of ADE with the Chinese whole-cell killed vaccine, or if so, it hasn't been reported," he said.

What About Variants?

Current COVID-19 vaccines were developed to protect against the original strain of SARS-CoV-2 that became dominant worldwide. As more variants arise, scientists have raised questions about whether one of these could become different enough to cause ADE. So far, that concern seems to be hypothetical, according to Lichty.

"To date, there's really no evidence of ADE with the COVID-19 vaccines. It's all theoretical," he said. "I think all the evidence so far is that ADE is not turning out to be a problem with any existing vaccines or viral variants."

One reason could be that SARS-CoV-2 just may not affect macrophages in a way that can produce ADE, although scientists are still working out the details. ADE has been reported after natural infection with other viruses, such as HIV, Ebola, and coxsackievirus, as well as other coronaviruses like SARS and MERS.

Throughout the pandemic, scientists have been looking for ADE associated with SARS-CoV-2, but so far they haven't found any cases of it, noted Lichty.

"This coronavirus may already be sufficiently adapted to humans, so that if it does get into macrophages via a non-neutralizing antibody interaction, it may not allow the macrophage to produce enough cytokine to cause an obvious pathology," he said.

Newer Vaccines Are Safer

Despite hesitancy about the relative newness of mRNA and adenoviral vector vaccines, these vaccines, in fact, have better safety profiles in terms of ADE than older types of vaccines, according to Bloom.

"The bottom line is that not only is the new technology faster to respond to a new viral pandemic, but so much safer and much more clearly scientifically designed," he said. "The S protein vaccines are so much cleaner, so much more carefully defined, and so much lower risk. All you're seeing is one protein from that virus. So the chances for ADE are much slimmer than with any of the older ways for making virus vaccines."

            

Last Updated March 18, 2021Source


[Technophobe:  The main proof of this is the huge number of people who have not had worse reactions to the actual virus after immunisation.  Even good theoritical stuff like this has less weight than that.]



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His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 6:16pm







Thank you techno,only facts will  do away with the antivax brigade.....

To be honest they really giving me the poops.....

About time we banned antivax talk on this site....


Take care all 😷😉💉

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 9:10pm

Techno, Pixie...thanks for the (early 2021) studies on ADE. 

There is a lot of discussion on the risks of Omicron; 

-How severe/mild is it ? 

Answer ; [url]https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam[/url] or https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam ;

FASTEST SURGE TO DATE—The #OmicronVarient is up swinging much faster in both new daily cases and positivity, than all previous waves in South Africa 🇿🇦, according to @nicd_sa data illustrated by @jburnmurdoch. This supports the faster transmission theory of #Omicron🧵
Deze collectie weergeven


Afbeelding

DJ (Retweeting Eric Feigl-Ding)  Cases going up fast...but also hospital cases seem to go up faster...

There was some hope Omicron may be more infectious but milder...A bit like the hope a cold-coronavirus could replace Delta...

That hope has gone...(as far as I follow/get the story). It may be milder but the high increase of cases will undo the "milder effect"....

If you have an increase of 300 - 500% in cases only 50% of them getting more severe health issues still would translate to 150/250% more severe cases...The cases so far showing up outside Africa may give an incomplete picture..

A "sub-discussion" may be on the incubation period...11 days after infection (?) (DJ-This would allow the virus to spread more/further).

-Do vaccines/immunity after infection work ? 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Characteristics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Characteristics

Many of the mutations to the spike protein are present in other variants of concern and are related to increased infectivity and antibody evasion. Computational modeling suggests that the variant may also escape cell-mediated immunity.[12]

On 26 November, the ECDC wrote that an evaluation of the neutralizing capacity of convalescent sera and of vaccines is urgently needed to assess possible immune escape, saying these data are expected within two to three weeks.[9]

As of November 2021, it is unknown how the variant will spread in populations with high levels of immunity, it is also unknown if the omicron variant causes a milder or more severe COVID infection. According to pharmaceutical companies, vaccines could be updated to combat the variant "in around 100 days" if necessary.[31]

also [url]https://twitter.com/trvrb[/url] or https://twitter.com/trvrb ; Again, based on wildly divergent spike protein, I'm guessing that immune escape will be substantial and so I still suspect that it's quite possible that Omicron will show lower intrinsic transmissibility than Delta.

DJ Allmost all cases outside (South) Africa have been in vaccinated people, in SA a lot of cases also on people who were believed to have (some) immunity. So how will this translate in wider spread of Omicron (in an older, more vaccinated population most of us on our way to winter...December family get togethers) ? 

Very likely earlier infections and vaccines offer less protection. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine_misinformation_and_hesitancy#Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine_misinformation_and_hesitancy#Antibody-dependent_enhancement ; ADE has been observed in vitro and in animal studies with many different viruses that do not display ADE in humans.[55][52] Molecular simulations indicate that ADE might play a role in new strains such as delta, but none in the strains that the vaccines were originally designed for.[1]Anti-vaccination activists cited ADE as a reason to avoid vaccination against COVID-19.[28][56]

DJ, ADE is a discussion on its own. I think that-in a reaction to vaccination/immunity- and with CoViD-19 developing further and further some variants most likely will find ways to use the immunity system for their goals...a selection proces, mutations that give the virus room to use immunity as means of viral spreading -in my idea-most likely is a matter of time.

But again I am not a scientist/expert..."just following the story"....CoViD-vaccines are a miracle-developed faster then anyone expected 18 months ago. Offering more protection this far against severe disease - keeping healthcare going. 

In my view vaccination strategy-opening up with vaccines NOT stopping spread-was very wrong. It did cause more mutations, sub variants better in evading immunity and those subvariants did get spread all over the globe. 

I think there is a limit to what you may expect from (present) vaccines. 

[url]https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/[/url] or https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/  with good science background has been warning over and over again that if vaccines do not stop spread you would see mutations undoing (vaccine) immunity. 

-There should not be any discussion on the status of healthcare after almost two years in this pandemic. Healthcare is at the recieving end of this pandemic. Good healthcare can save many lives, limit a lot of damage. At present in most countries healthcare is close to breaking point...

So-again-in my opinion (and nothing more then that) Omicron is a very major risk. 

The WHO, SAGE, NAVGEM, all call for "robust steps"  NOW to limit its spread...but again MEP (Media-Experts-Politics) "need time"...

Maybe it is my history background that I take pandemics/healthissues very serious ? Maybe a bit wider perspective; Europeans "coming to America" did mean the end of 90-95% of the "Indians"....The Plague killing 1/3 of Europe in the 14th century...

The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics is long...on a regional level lots of diseases killing +10% of the regional population. 

-What can we do ? 

STOP THE SPREAD !!!! It is "very unwise" to see lots of international airtravel during a pandemic transporting virusses/mutations/variants...by the time you "close borders" you are allready to late....

"Robust steps" means lockdowns ! Get the spread/R0 under 1 long enough to try to get some control over the pandemic.

More testing/sequencing. It now is clear Omicron is spreading in some countries (a.o. UK, NL, Israel) and may have been spreading for weeks...

Find a more definitive strategy. I think Zero-CoViD is such a strategy but China may not be able to stop Omicron. Vaccination strategies may work with better vaccines. 

Find better treatments-limit damage. Early detection should mean early treatment and limiting viral spread. There is a lot of progress both on better vaccines and medication - however if you end up with over 1 billion patients you know only "the richest" will get better treatment...the poor-that did not cause the problem-again suffer most. 

Carbon20,  I think ADE is a serious risk in this pandemic...I hope it stays "beyond the horizon"...Vaccines have their limits-can only be part of the way out...Even vaccine producers did warn that vaccines needed to be combined with restrictions.

Stay safe & sane !

end of part 1





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 9:17pm

I agree with you Josh. I also think that these vaccines have only been around for slightly over a year and there is no medium or long term safety data on them so the outcome has yet to be decided upon. 

It will be very interesting to see the first babies born to vaccinated mothers. The infamous result of vaccinating that herd of cows who were all pregnant resulted in the developing foetuses becoming virus creating machines and the calves born posed such as risk to other cows that they all had to be destroyed. I sincerely hope that there won't be any side effects on those unborn babies but I think it's a bit rash to use an experimental drug on a pregnant woman. Mistakes have happened in the past, there's no reason why they won't happen again.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 01 2021 at 9:56pm

KiwiMum; "learning by doing"...I know/see the reasons for vaccinating pregnant women...understand the hope the babies also will be protected...Do you have a link for that story on cows ? 

In my view ADE "has" to be the very likely outcome of a proces of "immunity selection"...Limits to vaccines, risks of ADE belong on a forum like this in this stage of the pandemic....

There is a major difference between what vaccines DID (I use the passed tense !) on an indivudual level (good protection-no discussion from me, very likely limited risks...part of the risks in how the vaccines were done...damaging/injecting into bloodvessels NOT the muscle) and how vaccines work(not) in a pandemic (containment strategy). Again-opening up with limited levels of vaccination-vaccines NOT stopping viral spread-was a major mistake !

Numbers; 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics and [url]https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/[/url] or https://bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/ 

Wiki has 368 Omicron cases in 28 countries, BNO comes to 373 confirmed and 1,256 probable....30 countries on their list...More Omicron-cases detected...to see if it is spreading a look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

South Africa trend for cases = +390%...more testing is just part of the increase. Deaths +51%..in real numbers SA cases last week 5,423 (for ALL of that week-so limited numbers !), this week 26,578...142 deaths last week, 214 this week...both cases and deaths numbers are "limited"....

SA did report 177 (wiki) 183 (BNO) Omicron cases-those cases did see sequencing...The last two weeks over 30,000 cases in SA...but those are the reported and tested cases...the real number of cases will be higher...

Both lists report 33 Ghana-Omicron cases...that country reported 193 cases last week, 0 this week....(and maybe NOT reporting cases may mean worse then an increase of cases ?) 

On the worldometers list Israel cases now +19%....does that mean Omicron is spreading in Israel ? [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-israel-awaits-omicron-confirmations-one-likely-case-sparks-cautious-optimism/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/as-israel-awaits-omicron-confirmations-one-likely-case-sparks-cautious-optimism/ (Maybe cases go up-but disease/symptoms limited ? Interesting read-how good is testing ? Why do some get infected ?)

One of my ideas on the Israel "story" is that booster vaccines still may offer some protection (very likely less then against earlier variants) against the Omicron-variant. If vaccines still offer some protection that is welcome news ! (Still we need better vaccines-both against new variants AND viral spread after infection.)

Looking at the very limited reported cases for the "South Africa Region" (SAR);

Eswatini (former Swaziland) cases +1,023%, Zimbabwe +737%, SA +390%, Malawi +354%, Lesotho +350%, Mozambique +146%, Namibia +105%, Zambia +22%, ...Angola -4%, Botswana -20%...these statistics at best may give some indications...

-Global cases reported for december 1; 596,390 (+2%), deaths 7,893 (-4%)...92 countries reporting an increase in cases...

Europe did see 363,874 cases (+6%..NL had technical problems so a lower number was reported), deaths 4,420 -0,6% (So Europe still around 60% of all reported cases/deaths). 

I did expect US cases/trends to go up-by now-as a compensation for the "Thanksgiving-extended-weekend/low reporting" but US cases trend still -12%...(some of the wekend-effects still in the US trend). Canada trend +14%, Mexico -4%...? 

DJ-Statistics only of limited use...rise in cases may not mean hospital cases going up the same way as earlier...A question on Omicron is incubation-time 11 days ?????

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator has lots of good info a.o. ; 




"Some scientists thought we wouldn’t have a 4th wave because we had such a high level of population immunity. The new variant emerged & it seems clear that it can reinfect people, which is potentially the last nail in the coffin of herd immunity."




4

12


DJ The "Herd-immunity" strategy (in part the basi(c)s for mass vaccination) may have reached its limits...


[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream also falling back to twitter; Thread by Trevor Bedford
From @trvrb

on #OmicronVariant a few vital insights:

- the virus 1st emerged between between Sep 9 & Oct 13
- spreading at a doubling time rate of 4.9 days
- Rt of #Delta is 0.8; Omicron is abt 2.5
- the Ro depends on population vax rate

Following up here with speculative estimates of the rate of spread of Omicron and a stab at how to apportion this rapid rate of spread between intrinsic transmissibility and immune escape.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...427304453.html

DJ...Maybe we simply do not know enough to say a lot...but there are allready lots of warnings signs !

"Delta" seem to have increase of spread in non-human hosts, I (DJ) expect Omicron may be able to spread even more widely in non-human hosts...

Limited "facts"...I do not want to speculate further...

Stay safe !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 2:36am

You are right, KiwiMum, that the short time the vaccines have been around is an additional risk factor.  But we need to compare risks with all vaccination.  

So far the vaccines seem to be almost perfect and whereas there have not been any long term studies, there have at least been worldwide huge ones.  I can't tell you that there are no risks.  I can tell you that the risks are minute compared to the disease.  Even things like the increased clotting with astra-zeneca are a tiny fraction of the increased clotting of the disease.  AND THESE THINGS COULD BE PREDICTED WITH ACCURACY BY SCIENCE.  The scientists studying this disease are just that, scientists.  Scientists don't say something is proven safe over time until they have the data for that, even if the trials and studies predict safety.  

So you are comparing the massively known (covid's death rate and risks of long covid) with the partially unknown but un-explained (the thought that the vaccine might cause problems over time, which studies strongly suggest it will not).  Even with that uneven playing field, the vaccines look like winners.

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His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 12:30pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

You are right, KiwiMum, that the short time the vaccines have been around is an additional risk factor.  But we need to compare risks with all vaccination.  

So far the vaccines seem to be almost perfect and whereas there have not been any long term studies, there have at least been worldwide huge ones.  I can't tell you that there are no risks.  I can tell you that the risks are minute compared to the disease.  Even things like the increased clotting with astra-zeneca are a tiny fraction of the increased clotting of the disease.  AND THESE THINGS COULD BE PREDICTED WITH ACCURACY BY SCIENCE.  The scientists studying this disease are just that, scientists.  Scientists don't say something is proven safe over time until they have the data for that, even if the trials and studies predict safety.  

So you are comparing the massively known (covid's death rate and risks of long covid) with the partially unknown but un-explained (the thought that the vaccine might cause problems over time, which studies strongly suggest it will not).  Even with that uneven playing field, the vaccines look like winners.

I think that for some people, like the elderly and the clinically vulnerable, the vaccines are a no brainer. I have various relatives who've had them and it was probably the right choice for them, but for others, I don't think they are necessarily the right choice. I have a number of relatives in Europe and in the UK who've had Covid and been just fine.Some of them are vaccinated and some of them aren't.  In fact the only people I know who've had Covid and it's ended badly for have been vaccinated. A vaccinated cousin ended up on the Covid ward whilst his unvaccinated wife didn't. My friend's 70 year old father, doubly vaccinated, died from it. 

The point I'm making is that for people who don't have many years left, then the vaccines sound great, but for young people with their whole lives in front of them who dont' have any underlying health conditions, it would be prudent to make sure there are no long term safety issues before we give them an experimental drug. The problem is that once it's in you, you can't take it out. With boosters being offered to over 18s in the UK right now just 3 months after their 2nd dose, just how many doses will they get before that 5-7 years testing period is up? That's my concern.

Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 02 2021 at 1:12pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

You are right, KiwiMum, that the short time the vaccines have been around is an additional risk factor.  But we need to compare risks with all vaccination.  

So far the vaccines seem to be almost perfect and whereas there have not been any long term studies, there have at least been worldwide huge ones.  I can't tell you that there are no risks.  I can tell you that the risks are minute compared to the disease.  Even things like the increased clotting with astra-zeneca are a tiny fraction of the increased clotting of the disease.  AND THESE THINGS COULD BE PREDICTED WITH ACCURACY BY SCIENCE.  The scientists studying this disease are just that, scientists.  Scientists don't say something is proven safe over time until they have the data for that, even if the trials and studies predict safety.  

So you are comparing the massively known (covid's death rate and risks of long covid) with the partially unknown but un-explained (the thought that the vaccine might cause problems over time, which studies strongly suggest it will not).  Even with that uneven playing field, the vaccines look like winners.

I think that for some people, like the elderly and the clinically vulnerable, the vaccines are a no brainer. I have various relatives who've had them and it was probably the right choice for them, but for others, I don't think they are necessarily the right choice. I have a number of relatives in Europe and in the UK who've had Covid and been just fine.Some of them are vaccinated and some of them aren't.  In fact the only people I know who've had Covid and it's ended badly for have been vaccinated. A vaccinated cousin ended up on the Covid ward whilst his unvaccinated wife didn't. My friend's 70 year old father, doubly vaccinated, died from it. 

The point I'm making is that for people who don't have many years left, then the vaccines sound great, but for young people with their whole lives in front of them who dont' have any underlying health conditions, it would be prudent to make sure there are no long term safety issues before we give them an experimental drug. The problem is that once it's in you, you can't take it out. With boosters being offered to over 18s in the UK right now just 3 months after their 2nd dose, just how many doses will they get before that 5-7 years testing period is up? That's my concern.

Boring can we move on from this anti Vax message please.....

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