Click to Translate to English Click to Translate to French  Click to Translate to Spanish  Click to Translate to German  Click to Translate to Italian  Click to Translate to Japanese  Click to Translate to Chinese Simplified  Click to Translate to Korean  Click to Translate to Arabic  Click to Translate to Russian  Click to Translate to Portuguese  Click to Translate to Myanmar (Burmese)

PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
123456
Forum Home Forum Home > Main Forums > General Discussion
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - scenario's
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login

Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <1 33343536>
Author
Message
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2021 at 11:47pm

DJ, First of all best wishes to all of you ! Hope 2022 will be a good year in many ways ! I think that if we want it we may be able to get rid of this pandemic this year ! I hope politics finally makes the right choices !

Some 2021 numbers including yesterday-december 31-over 1,6 million new tested cases...

January 1 we were at 84,602,214 reported cases...today [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ reporting 288,467,634 cases....so an increase of over 200 million+.....January 25 we did pass the 100 million cases (alpha/UK-variant), the 150 million was reached april 28 (Delta-India), the 200 million august 3-Delta going global...the 250 million november 6....most of it still Delta...December 3 we went over the 265 million-taking only 4 weeks to get to the 288,5 million....getting close to a million cases per day due to Omicron....

Of course these numbers only give some indications. Testing has been very limited in many countries during all of this pandemic. Last month-december-even "rich" countries ran out of testing capacity...

Another discussion is what does "a case" mean-besides being reported/tested to end up in this statistic? Delta variant did give more problems/risks then Alpha...Omicron -some claims-may be more infectious, spreading in booster/vaccinated people much more then Delta was able to do....

Vaccines were supposed to help to contain both number of cases and pressure on healthcare...[url]https://vaersanalysis.info/2021/12/25/vaers-summary-for-covid-19-vaccines-through-12-17-2021/[/url] or https://vaersanalysis.info/2021/12/25/vaers-summary-for-covid-19-vaccines-through-12-17-2021/ gives an indication-very likely an "optimistic one" of the health costs of "safe" vaccines....

But vaccines are suppost to be part of some strategy...and in many/most countries there simply is NO strategy.....First pushing/mandating massive vaccines, then boosters...but not stopping airtravel transporting first Delta from India in april, then Omicron from Southern Africa in november this year....action only after the fact....in the wrong way. As if to punnish countries for reporting cases, NOT to serve public health....

Communications at best were terrible...vaccinated did not need a mask...had more freedoms...while the vaccination had only a very limited effect on spreading the virus/variants....Again-the main priority for most countries were economic ones...not stopping this pandemic. 

International cooperation was another disaster...vaccine nationalism, competition instead of cooperation...The world was allready in a political crisis january 1, things only did get much worse since then....never been this close to World War 3 as at the end of 2021....(And since I am NOT neutral, objective, an "expert" part of the problem is NAto moving East after NApoleon, NAzi's.....global domination for the west as a goal ? Not only Russia-Iran-China "unhappy" but also former colonies wondering why "the west" is this agressive....DJ-Why "the west"supported a fascist like bolsanero (I know that name is written different...to much honor for that thug) in Brazil, neo-nazi's in Ukraine ? )

Global deaths were at 1,952,336 january 1-2021....january 6 cross the 2 million, february 11 the 2,5 million, april 5 the 3 million, may 13 the 3,5 million, july 2 the 4 million, august 26 the 4,5 million, october 28 the 5 million, to end the year at 5,452,990 deaths....so an increase of allmost 3,5 million reported deaths in 2021...

The WHO expects the real number of deaths 2x/3x the reported number, other sources-more looking at excess deaths-allready going towards the 40 million deaths for all of this pandemic. 

One point of discussion is lots of people dying allready had healthissues, or developed other healthissues after catching CoViD....CoViD itself can be a "slow way to die" so the UK, Russia only counting CoViD deaths till 28 days after testing positive miss a lot of deaths. The reported NL number for NL may be less then 50% of the real number...CoViD deaths in care centers in NL "die of old age".....

Global healthcare is sinking in an ever worsening crisis. High risk-low pay did see both, lots of HCW-ers now ill/isolating (London UK now 40% !) or leaving the job because sometimes even supermarkets may pay better.....Political disrespect for public duties is destroying the public sector..."pseudo liberal-conservatives" putting "pandemic money" to "political sponsors" ; this pandemic just another way to get rich fast....If you think trump was a disaster (and a.o. in foreign policy he was-the present international crisis is the outcome of ending all kind of international agreements during trump !) you may need to look at "clown" BoJo&Co in the UK, Macron I in France or rutte in NL....populists without any vision, puppets for "the rich" that pay them...

-The goal of looking back is to look forward ! So given 2021 what to expect from (early) 2022 ? 

Again [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ as a basis....the idea that record numbers after christmas 2021 are "most compensation for limited reporting during Christmas"  may be an illusion...Omicron is spreading like crazy....the reported cases are maybe 1/2, 1/3 or less of the real number of people catching Omicron. 

So december 31 did see 1,891,957 new reported cases, trend +56% on top of an exhausted global healthcare system after two years pandemic missmanagement (by political fools). 

Looking at "regional trends" one may think Africa cases "only +10%" is doing "not that bad"...Asia now at +20% as a weekly trend-with 4 billion people living there....Europe +48%...North America +83%, South America +150%, Oceania +155% increase of cases....most of them by now Omicron...it has to be very, very mild if it would NOT cause a healthcare collapse in many places....

Still there are lots of differences; looking at Europe lowest increase of cases; Czechia cases -39%, Poland -32%...they came from a high growth earlier from Delta...but also Germany (still strict rules) cases -23%, Norway cases -19% (after an explosion of Omicron now under control ?), Russia -14%, NL still -4%...But Austria had a semi-lockdown, strict rules cases now +4%, Belgium did well cases now +6%...

Some other countries see cases (still) go down; South Korea-strict rules cases -22%, Laos-24%, Iran -10%, Thailand -9%, Malaysia -6%, Indonesia, Vietnam still -1%....in Asia. But India cases allready +42%, Pakistan +12%, Bangladesh +47%....another major crisis on its way in south Asia...

In South America Argentina (Omicron) cases exploding +240%, Brazil +134%, Peru +82%...In North America Canada +124%, USA +80%, Mexico +35%....

Still global deaths-so far- -11%...Africa +20%, Oceania +16%....(Australia cases +158%, New Zealand cases-active government--0,2% !)

Many countries reporting now hospitals seeing more cases/collapse of healthcare....In part that also has to do with timing. Some countries still with high Delta-hospital cases, then another influx of Omicron on top of that...with some countries also reporting flu-cases going up. 

In many countries more children getting seriously ill....This has a few new aspects; Childcare ICU-capacity is often even more limited...lots of materials (from masks to tubes) are not made for use in larger number of children...

The other aspect-maybe even more serious-most parents rather would be lying at ICU then to see their children there...it is very emotional...not only for parents/family also for HCW-ers....You may be able to accept an older person dying in hospital...but children dying there is very depressing....

More children getting very ill, hospitals soon at limits there will cause much more unrest, HCW-ers getting emotional broken...

-If you test positive yourself, have been in contact with someone testing positive, you are supposed to go into isolation 10-17 days...With Omicron giving such high numbers that system of pandemic control is getting impossible....In the US the CDC did give up to much restrictions-isolation ending after just 5 days...no tests needed....To do what ? Keep airplanes transporting variants around the globe ? Sell fat food to people allready overweight ? More wars ? 

Somehow "neo-liberal conservatism" is dogmatic in its (lack of) "thinking" governments do not have to play a major role in a serious crisis....A smile and a wink, tap on the shoulder..."freedom"....Both in climate collapse and in this pandemic this "pseudo ideology/insanity" is killing millions....If governments are active they promote booster after booster....even when 2020 did show NPI/restrictions long enough worked much better in limiting this pandemic then...

Schools may reopen january 10 in many countries, furter increasing the spread of Omicron etc. At a certain moment that many people simply may be that ill society will see "very serious problems"...the present "political idiots" again will do to little to late...this pandemic is a political disaster...2021 made that clear !

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2022 at 3:42am

part 2, also looking back at 2021, looking forward...

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ;








I challenged  on this on Times Radio recently- for casting doubt on SPI-M-O models that are now very much on track with hospitalisation rates. The media is fully complicit in this, while issuing almost no challenge to misinformation as long as it carries hopium.

-

Scientists warning based on evidence are attacked relentlessly for 'fear mongering', being 'pro-lockdown', while hopium spreaders are platformed without question, as vital opportunities to protect the NHS & people lives are allowed to pass & murderous policies of govt normalised.

DJ In 2021 lots of discussion/info moved to twitter (etc). Part of reasons may be "nowcasting" instead of forecasting; events going that fast trying to follow it was a job on its own...Science studies take a lot of time while developments go very fast...

In my opinion Media-Experts-Politics did about all they could to go for "hopium based info", unrealistic "optimism" resulting in more division in society allready very divided at the start of 2021...








An amazing study led by  carefully dissecting the properties of omicron relative to other variants. TL;DR: omicron shows: -high levels of escape from vaccines with immunity partly restored post-3rd dose -lower syncytia formation -different preferred mechanism of cell entry


confronted with "booster-till-you-drop" "politics"....Lots of scientists repeating schools need better ventilations, vaccines with restrictions do not work - vaccinated people still spread the virus....The outcome will be variants (Delta, Omicron may be on their way to it) getting even better in ignoring/evading immunity. 

A study on Omicron [url]https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vam2PVMWvfRBczqs_uZbnUixGja1QPZD/view[/url] or https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vam2PVMWvfRBczqs_uZbnUixGja1QPZD/view  more infectious in the upper respitory system (therefor spreading much faster), less in the lower respitory system (so "milder");

Abstract

At the end of 2021 a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, emerged and quickly spread across

the world. It has been demonstrated that Omicron’s high number of Spike mutations lead to partial

immune evasion from even polyclonal antibody responses, allowing frequent re-infection and vaccine

breakthroughs. However, it seems unlikely these antigenic differences alone explain its rapid growth;

here we show Omicron replicates rapidly in human primary airway cultures, more so even than the

previously dominant variant of concern, Delta. Omicron Spike continues to use human ACE2 as its

primary receptor, to which it binds more strongly than other variants. Omicron Spike mediates

enhanced entry into cells expressing several different animal ACE2s, including various domestic avian

species, horseshoe bats and mice suggesting it has an increased propensity for reverse zoonosis and


is more likely than previous variants to establish an animal reservoir of SARS-CoV-2. Unlike other SARS-

CoV-2 variants, however, Omicron Spike has a diminished ability to induce syncytia formation.


Furthermore, Omicron is capable of efficiently entering cells in a TMPRSS2-independent manner, via

the endosomal route. We posit this enables Omicron to infect a greater number of cells in the

respiratory epithelium, allowing it to be more infectious at lower exposure doses, and resulting in

enhanced intrinsic transmissibility.

DJ The discussion on "Omicron being milder" may be a pointless discussion...Most of all Omicron is different...with some experts warning Omicron and Delta may coexist and we may have to face-de facto-a pandemic of TWO corona-virusses...(on top of that (bird)flu also going its way...). 

In my opinion this pandemic is related to climate "change" with lots of species in crisis, increasing vulnerabilities for all kinds of diseases...(I still think there may be some relation with African Swine Fever crisis starting prior to the present corona-pandemic...but again, I am just trying to make some sense...).

[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu  and [url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp trying (a.o.) to translate what it may mean....What I do understand is that Omicron may bring even more risks of this pandemic further spreading in non-human hosts...making CoViD-19 a multi-species pandemic even more...

Several bird flu's (H5N1, H5N6, H5N8 ) may be getting closer to infecting/spreading in "non-bird-hosts" (a.o. in foxes...) may be just another possible pandemic risk we have to start taking serious ! 

So-what should we do ? 

-Limit (air)travel ! Stop spreading diseases/variants flying for free at this level...what is wrong with reduction in airtravel with 90-95% other then less profits ? We need long term plans to stop (new) pandemics ! We are not even discussing them !

-Much better surveilance, "One Health"...lots more testing/sequencing...worldwide, also in non-human hosts....Why make the choice to be "surprised" by yet another disease-killing millions, economic damage in the "zillions"...with limited more investments in preventing such "surprises"? 

-Better basic health, preventative healthcare....Why is it often that difficult to get a good healthcheck for humans when cars have to undergo tests every year in many countries ? Do we realy car more about car safety then driver safety ? 

One of the reasons a.o. the US is hit this hard is the bad shape a lot of Americans are in....with lots of other (often preventable) diseases like diabetes, obesity....addictions....








Recklessly opening school buildings right now instead of working to reduce community transmission is, once again, needlessly putting millions of lives at risk. National #2weeks pause NOW to #ProtectOurCommunity Let's #Unite4SafeSchools 

DJ Sticking to the myth "children only get mild disease if any" schools reopening will further increase virus/Omicron spread....So, will societies face serious crises soon ? I think we can not avoid that any longer....

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2022 at 10:48pm

DJ, 

Statistics, with Spain not reporting in the weekend, US much lower testing...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ still 1.188,467 new cases, weekly trend +58% 

France reported 219,126 new cases +116%, (only) 110 deaths +16%   with presidential elections in a few months restrictions only will be done to show "leadership", PR....

UK 162,572 new cases +51%, 154 deaths +35% , BoJo&Co seem to see any form of government action as "socialism" and-for that reason unwanted...bodies piling up...

US 161,398 new cases,+54%, 257 deaths, -7% reported but weekend so less testing/reporting-still high numbers...

Italy 141,262 new cases +150%, 111 deaths -1%

Turkey at #5, Canada #6, Australia #7, Greece, India, Portugal make the top 10....for saterday-new yearsday-january 1 2022...

For some (groups of) countries/trends;

BRICS stand for ;

Brazil cases +155%, deaths +1%

Russia cases -17%, deaths -9%

India cases +120%, deaths (still) -8%

China cases +115%, deaths 0%

South Africa cases -48%, deaths -1%

In real numbers China still able to keep a grip on the pandemic. Russia did see restrictions (+ schools closed etc.) bringing numbers somewhat down...but still at a high level. India numbers are unrealisticly low...very limited testing...may also go for Brazil...both countries very likely on their way to yet another healthcrisis....South Africa may be indicating Omicron came fast-went fast...short peak...then Delta will return ? 

In general we are in record high numbers for new cases-most due to Omicron...Global average over 1 million cases per day for over a week now...It is still much to early to say much on how it will work out further...lots of countries report hospital cases going up, children more severe disease...But christmas/new year may be hiding real numbers...most likely even worse. 

A few parts of Europe still seeing cases going down; Poland, Czechia -24%, Russia/Belarus -17%, Germany -7%, Norway -2%....NL now cases +10% Omicron dominant and a "paper lockdown" (with rutte forming his 4th government allready very impopular and distrusted/hated...local elections in march...)

Greece cases +329%, (deaths -9%) Italy +150%, (d-1%) Portugal +148% (not that long ago in the news because over 90% of its population did get vaccinated twice - without mandates, deaths in Portugal +6%), France +116% (deaths +16%), Ireland +98% (d -60%), Finland +75% (D +8%)

DJ-Are deaths in these countries (still) most from Delta ? Is Omicron milder + vaccines limiting severe disease ? 

In the America's ;

Argentina cases +237%, deaths +33%, Cuba cases +226%, deaths -50%...(former Dutch) Suriname cases +393%, deaths also -50%...

USA cases +54%, deaths -7%, Canada cases +133%, deaths +87% (last week 103, this week 193 so still limited...) Mexico cases +88%, deaths -31%...

Looking at southern Africa in general cases down, deaths up....but not that extreme...

Oceania; Australia cases +20%, deaths +41% (last week 46, this week 65 so 1/3 of Canadian deaths - population not that different, Australia in summer..) New Zealand cases -21% (last week 419, this last 7 days 333 being reported). New zealand did see 2 deaths this week, 0 last week so "deaths +200%"...DJ-New Zealand may be one of those places that could get some grip on this pandemic ! (With or without vaccines...) I would love it if New Zealand did show it can find a good balance (and I use the word "find" because it is looking, seeking a balance) with measures and "still beat the virus"...a lot of other countries could learn from New Zealand !

China cases 670 last week, this week 1,443 (+115%)...totally different in many ways from New Zealand, maybe more similarities with more urban area's in Europe, the America's, Africa and Asia..."Compartmentalization" maybe as a strategy...transforming a country in lots of "small islands" with very limited travel between them as part of the strategy....? 

In Israel, now going for a second booster, cases +181% (last week 9,045 this week 25,416)...proberbly indicating much more NPI is needed, vaccines "less effective" (maybe even close to becoming only of use to limit severe disease at best ?). 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics So far 113 countries reporting Omicron cases being detected...Even French Guyana may have 49 Omicron cases...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/390[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/390

A BA.2 sublineage seems to be growing in Denmark, even as a share of all Omicron, and spreading from there to other parts of Europe (Sweden, Germany) and beyond. Of course due to small numbers, it's unclear whether this is just a chance event or not.

In Denmark its share of all Omicron has grown as follows:
CW 48: 0.3% [1 of 300 Omicrons]
CW 49: 0.3% [4 of 1k Omicrons]
CW 50: 4% [100 of 2k Omicrons]
CW 51: 9% [105 of 1k Omicrons]

The growth of BA.2 in Denmark (and India, different sub-lineage) was brought to my attention by Josette Schoenmakers and Dmitry Pruss

Earliest collection possibly in Canada: 2021-12-03 but recent growth is most striking in Denmark and surrounding countries.

It is defined by one nucleotide mutation nuc:C22792T.

DJ [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma








Als antwoord op 
Update: we now now for sure that our Omicron sequences containing P681R are the result of contamination/PCR overamplification combo (mostly high Ct samples). We are going to ask GISAID to remove them and add the new ones once we are done resequencing them all

So in research, labs, with very limited numbers you may end up with invalid results...The Danish BA.2 sublineage has a mutation more to the end of the sequence....There have been other reports of the end part/ "tail" of Omicron possibly showing mutations/recombinations...Denmark may be #1 in sequencing, so finding mutations there may indicate a mutation has been spreading in the region...DK cases +60%, deaths -14%.

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false Omicron BA.1 is still-as far as sequencing has detected yet-around 99% of Omicron cases...BA.2 has only 299 sequences...may be seeing a BA.2.1 showing up ? 

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2022 at 11:31pm

DJ, I think we are in a very serious global health crisis with lots of questions, just a few of them;

-How much use do vaccines/boosters have-risk/benefit ratio...It looks like-for now-vaccines may offer protection against severe disease-after a recent booster....Countries going for "freedoms for vaccinated" are destroying what vaccines can do...Vaccinated people more and more catching-most likely BOTH-Omicron and Delta (most often not at the same time...) both variants still spreading....Omicron may become dominant-most in vaccinated people (they have better protection against Delta subvariants) but Omicron may not fully replace Delta...

-Testing/sequencing much less then 1% of all human cases...sequencing is a problem. Testing a growing problem in many countries...with very likely Omicron spreading even more in non-human hosts....most likely will jump back to humans later on as a subvariant or maybe even a new variant....This pandemic has gone under the radar...with reported cases at best 1/3 of any real numbers...we simply have no idea what is happening any longer...

-With high spread mutations will increase bringing even more subvariants-showing up much more in vaccinated/boostered hosts that may not develop serious illness most often but "vaccine selection" will result in subvariants even better in evading immunity...As a non-expert I can see two reasons Omicron is spreading this fast; So far Omicron is doing most of the infection in the upper respitory system...easy to reach even with masks...(still keep using masks-it lowers the viral load !). Further it simply allmost ignores immunity....

-There has been a lot of discussion on Omicron being "mild"; I would describe Omicron as being "different"...that different from Delta some experts think they may coexist..so we have two virusses/variants of CoViD-19 around...With healthcare at breaking point and Omicron still "exploding" , bringing more subvariants we will see more socio-economic consequences. 

You can limit time for isolation/quarantine to "keep the economy going" but that most likely will result in even more cases later on unless you "know what you are doing" and due to lack of testing, sequencing, science...we hardly have an idea of what we are doing...

So there have been "old strategies" from other crises to think of...but politics still do not want to look at that...

-Making a list of essential functions you need to keep going; food/water, power, communications, basic public health...Try to secure those functions the best you can NOW !!!

-Cut up the country in smaller "Islands" (compartment-alization...in ships if there is a leak only one compartment will get water in...not all of the ship...lessons learned from the Titanic disaster). STOP THE SPREAD but if there is spread try to keep it as contained as possible....The only correct word for international (air)travel in this phase of the pandemic is crazy...."You try to get the house dry by keeping the water flowing in"....

How can you ask people to get vaccinated/boosters when you do NOT stop the spread ? It is insane ! We will have another demonstration in Amsterdam this afternoon...those people deny there is a crisis...I think the main crisis is a political one...simply ignoring all kinds of risks...the basic need in any crisis is good, clear, honest communication...It has to be clear who is in command....We now are in the worst health crisis since "very long" and it is not even clear who is in command, what is the strategy (still going for herd immunity ? Petrol to deal with a wildfire ?)...We have been in this crisis for around two years soon-but the next variant still will "fly for free" around the globe just like the earlier three variants could....

-Some twitter etc.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-gov-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-now-omicron-becoming-dominant?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-gov-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-now-omicron-becoming-dominant?view=stream latest; UK cases +47,9% to 162,572 cases per day...UK 154 deaths per day +31,1%, 1,915 patients going to hospital per day...+49,9% testing going down -8% (as far as reported..) 

DJ-The UK now has 4,000 beds extra in field-hospitals early january....Staff will be an increasing problem...Hospital cases moving towards over 2,000 per day will mean hospital capacity simply not enough....UK moving towards a very major crisis coming week...still "no serious restrictions"....Lots of other countries on the same road, only days. a few weeks, behind the UK...some may have more restrictions/rules but "a very serious crisis" is "moving in"...

Governments can still limit damage by putting up priorities, limiting (air)travel but simply do not....








The gaslighting cycle: SAGE: Don't wait till hosp rise to act or it'll be too late Govt/media: -'too much uncertainty'/'mild'/'need more data' -'SAGE modelling wrong' -'closely following the data' (what data? PCRs/LFD capacity reached) -'hosps mostly incidental' -'too late now'!

DJ Others referring to SAGE "strongly advising" much more restrictions on december 15 [url]https://www.independentsage.org/emergency-statement-on-omicron-15-december-2021/[/url] or https://www.independentsage.org/emergency-statement-on-omicron-15-december-2021/

Christmas is 10 days away – that’s 5 doublings at its current growth rate, making the situation potentially 32 times worse by then. Even if growth slows, the situation would still be much worse than now. Every day we wait adds more cases and more eventual burden on the NHS and, sadly, more deaths. Even if Omicron has a lower case-to-hospitalisation rate compared to Delta, SAGE SPI-M modelling suggests we could still see levels of hospitalisations as high as in previous waves due to the sheer increase in cases. High infection burden will also cause enormous disruption in society as many key workers fall ill at a time when the NHS will  face unprecedented demand – indeed, current evidence points to NHS primary and secondary care in extreme distress.

The opportunity for early action has been lost and the time for further delay is over. The situation is so urgent we must take emergency action now and that means it is imperative to reduce contacts. Advice is no longer enough since it does not convey the urgency of the situation.

Accordingly we now call for an immediate circuit break to then enable limited mixing from the 25 to 28th December. All measures should be re-evaluated over that period to determine what needs to happen after Christmas. The short circuit break should include:

But what is the point....???? BoJo&Co may be having another christmas party...now preparing for a new years party...."The lunatics have taken over..."

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933598-southern-france-reports-of-new-variant-with-46-mutations[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933598-southern-france-reports-of-new-variant-with-46-mutations

Southern France reports of new variant with 46 mutations


https://www.thailandmedical.news/new...-from-cameroon

This article states that 67 patients have been identified with this variant - all suffering moderate to severe symptoms. The variant first came to light at the end of November 2021 with the initial case being from Cameroon.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.21268174v1

Emergence in Southern France of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant of probably Cameroonian origin harbouring both substitutions N501Y and E484K in the spike protein

Their analysis revealed 46 mutations and 37 deletions resulting in 30 amino acid substitutions and 12 deletions. Fourteen amino acid substitutions, including N501Y and E484K, and 9 deletions are located in the spike protein.

-

https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...b16402-omicron from December 10th.


Covid warning as ANOTHER new variant discovered in France – scientists sound alarm



ANOTHER variant of coronavirus has been detected by experts working in Marseille, France, as the world continues to battle the deadly virus.

The alarm was sounded by experts at the IHU Mediterranee Infection in Marseille. They announced on their Twitter that they had detected a new variant in Covid-19 patients from Forcalquier, in the Alpes-de-Haute-Provence region. Dubbed "IHU," the variant has been registered under the name B.1.640.2 on the GISAID network (Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data).

DJ A look at the link; [url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268174v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.24.21268174v1 (december 29 -2021...) ;

Here we describe the emergence of a new variant. For twelve SARS-CoV-positive patients living in the same geographical area of southeastern France, qPCR testing that screen for variant-associated mutations showed an atypical combination. The index case returned from a travel in Cameroon. The genomes were obtained by next-generation sequencing with Oxford Nanopore Technologies on GridION instruments within approximately 8 h. Their analysis revealed 46 mutations and 37 deletions resulting in 30 amino acid substitutions and 12 deletions. Fourteen amino acid substitutions, including N501Y and E484K, and 9 deletions are located in the spike protein. This genotype pattern led to create a new Pangolin lineage named B.1.640.2, which is a phylogenetic sister group to the old B.1.640 lineage renamed B.1.640.1. Both lineages differ by 25 nucleotide substitutions and 33 deletions. The mutation set and phylogenetic position of the genomes obtained here indicate based on our previous definition a new variant we named 'IHU'. These data are another example of the unpredictability of the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, and of their introduction in a given geographical area from abroad.

So NOT Omicron, NOT Delta....[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_under_monitoring_(WHO)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_under_monitoring_(WHO) had a B.1.640 september 2021 from Congo....

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-southern-france-reports-spread-of-new-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-640-2-with-46-mutations-and-37-deletions-originating-from-cameroon[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-southern-france-reports-spread-of-new-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-640-2-with-46-mutations-and-37-deletions-originating-from-cameroon ; (I can not copy from there but not good news at all !)

DJ Also a link to [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-international-study-warns-that-sars-cov-2-infections-will-lead-to-cancers-especially-colorectal-cancers-due-to-disruption-in-autophagy[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-new-international-study-warns-that-sars-cov-2-infections-will-lead-to-cancers-especially-colorectal-cancers-due-to-disruption-in-autophagy long term health effects...

I need another coffee.....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933547-israel-detects-first-case-of-co-infection-of-covid-19-and-influenza[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933547-israel-detects-first-case-of-co-infection-of-covid-19-and-influenza  ; What is 'Florona' disease? The first influenza virus that reported in Israeli woman

2 hours ago. Israel
By Ajay Joseph

... The newspaper said that the infection of the "double disease" was recorded in a woman who entered this week to the Rabin Medical Center to give birth.

The young woman, who is not vaccinated, is in good health and is expected to be discharged later on Friday, according to "Russia Today".

According to the Center for Disease Control and the Israeli Ministry of Health, Israel is witnessing a wave of influenza infection, as Israeli hospitals have so far treated 1,849 patients with it last week.

https://opoyi.com/what-is-florona-di...-israeli-woman

and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness/933554-plos-pathog-influenza-viruses-and-coronaviruses-knowns-unknowns-and-common-research-challenges[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/preparedness/933554-plos-pathog-influenza-viruses-and-coronaviruses-knowns-unknowns-and-common-research-challenges

Abstract

The development of safe and effective vaccines in a record time after the emergence of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is a remarkable achievement, partly based on the experience gained from multiple viral outbreaks in the past decades. However, the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis also revealed weaknesses in the global pandemic response and large gaps that remain in our knowledge of the biology of coronaviruses (CoVs) and influenza viruses, the 2 major respiratory viruses with pandemic potential. Here, we review current knowns and unknowns of influenza viruses and CoVs, and we highlight common research challenges they pose in 3 areas: the mechanisms of viral emergence and adaptation to humans, the physiological and molecular determinants of disease severity, and the development of control strategies. We outline multidisciplinary approaches and technological innovations that need to be harnessed in order to improve preparedeness to the next pandemic.

DJ The Israel story in an unvaccinated pregnant woman may not sound that alarming yet...but the more virusses can spread and mix the higher the risks...

[url]https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1[/url] or https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1 ; To me, it's a lot like the climate change debate. Imagine if the 3% of climate change denier 'scientists' were platformed as if they represented 50%, and the remaining 97% platformed equally, or potentially even less than that. It'd create a sense of confusion & lack of consensus








The misinformation/disinformation campaigns pushing this rhetoric have been incredibly strong with media narratives completely divorced from reality. It's been impossible to breakthrough the spin & frustrating to watch it all unfold, despite numerous warnings from SAGE & others.

Media-Experts-Politics going for "hopium", simply ignoring science....








CDC guidelines are manifestly not based upon science of transmission. Since they are based on the staffing needs of airlines, we are near breakdown of the economic system and are not doing what is needed to solve the problem —stopping transmission.

Taiwan🇹🇼’s Central Epidemic Command announced it will not follow @CDCgov guidance on shortened 5-day isolation because #Omicron cases have been found to be infectious *up to 12 days* after positive. @CDCDirector is wrong. https://taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4393548

Link; https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1477311536360267788/photo/1 Due to timelimits/overload of news I leave it here...end of part 2-will try to find out more on the new variant spreading in France (and maybe often mistaken for Delta...) I think this new variant may be just one of more new variants....we simply lack sequencing capacity to keep an eye on Latin America, Africa, Asia....


D

D

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2022 at 9:59pm

DJ IF a variant would manage to increase when Omicron is exploding then that variant needs a lot of attention...so I try to learn more on B.1.640.2 spreading in France, UK etc....[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933598-southern-france-reports-of-new-variant-with-46-mutations[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/933598-southern-france-reports-of-new-variant-with-46-mutations


https://www.thailandmedical.news/new...ingdom-as-well

Article states 952 cases now detected in France, 17 individuals in the UK confirmed and also Monaco. (Obviously not going to be able to keep a track of the spread in the UK as PCR tests being rationed to conserve the laboratories conducting the analysis).

DJ [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/2022-is-bleak-the-world-is-under-attack-by-the-omicron,-new-delta-subvariants,-the-new-ihu-or-b-1640-2-variant-and-new-reassortant-strains[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/2022-is-bleak-the-world-is-under-attack-by-the-omicron,-new-delta-subvariants,-the-new-ihu-or-b-1640-2-variant-and-new-reassortant-strains may be a bit sensation...but its basis seems to be science-I can not copy/paste from it...The basic story is Omicron will NOT get that dominant, Delta (sub variants) and others may still find room to spread...

Hope this first day of a new working-week will provide more info...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/391[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/391 BA.1 (Omicron) moving towards a (further) sub-variant BA.1.1 ? 

Also spread in animals [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/usa-3-lions-test-positive-for-sars-cov-2-in-new-orleans-zoo/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/usa-3-lions-test-positive-for-sars-cov-2-in-new-orleans-zoo/ most likely will increase/explode...Good sequencing is needed there to find out what kind of variant may be spreading and what risks it can bring. 

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ with "only" 828,925 (+59%) new cases reported testing simply doing a bad (weekend) job....Deaths as far as being reported 3,075...(-7%). 

India cases +179%, deaths still -22%, Brazil cases +110%, deaths +6%, Israel cases +218%, deaths -75%, South Africa cases -44%, deaths -11%....

We are moving towards the "more serious part" of this pandemic-more looking like the Spanish Flu....with % of people getting ill, dying going towards what we did see then. The last two years, 2020, 2021 just a prelude....We should have stopped it...now it is "out of our control" and the ONLY priority we - as mankind-have is trying to survive...But just like with climate change risks are being ignored....

Some twitter [url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ  In NL 29,7% of all tests are positive, trend cases +19%...we are supposed to be in a lockdown but for 20-29 y/o cases are second highest...today a decission on reopening schools per january 10 will be made....Still most NL schools have no good ventilation...








Lessons not at stage of lockdowns. The lessons need to be much earlier: how to prevent lockdowns by having better data,ability to understand data,willingness act earlier, have interventions that can change the course & trust. Lessons need to be “How to prevent need for lockdowns”









Plus unwillingness to learn lessons of frequent & more complex epidemics of the last 20yrs & the need for active global cooperation, animal & human infection surveillance, investment strong public health/clinical systems, , & tools of intervention; Tests,PPE, Drugs & Vaccines

DJ...What is the use of science when it only gets ignored ? The only priority has become making money....








BREAKING: A very serious situation at hospitals across Lincolnshire tonight as  declares a 'critical incident' over "extreme and unprecedented" staff shortages. It says it is "unable to maintain safe staffing levels" leading to "compromised care" across its sites:


The "new normal", "living with the virus" ???








Omicron is not a Pokemon-style "final evolution" of SARS-CoV-2. It's still mutating rapidly, including in the spike protein, and with the amount of replication it is doing out there right now, we can expect new variants. Hoping is not a strategy. Giving up is not a plan.

More realism...

3) The throat swab positive while nasal swab negative testing story is becoming quite common. Here is another person with 3 negative nasal tests but got an immediate positive when she switched to a throat swab. Rug van hand met omlaag wijzende wijsvinger #Omicron is different - we must adapt.

Well, there it is. Today, with the “wrong” (i.e. cold) symptoms and after a string of negative LFTs, I finally took Twitter advice and swabbed my throat as well as my nose (no mean feat with that diddly stick). If you think you might have COVID, consider adding the throat sample

DJ People falling back to twitter even for testing advice...a throat swab may detect Omicron much better then a nasal swab....Why this has to come via twitter ????

Maybe I find the courage and motivation to write some more later....but this all was so preventable...

Stay safe & sane !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Littlesmile View Drop Down
V.I.P. Member
V.I.P. Member
Avatar

Joined: July 18 2016
Location: Northern irelan
Status: Offline
Points: 1630
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 1:36am

We have always done throat and nose on our tests here.... I find it quite shocking that some countries/places/people only rely on nose/nasal... Will we ever actually know how many cases and deaths Covid has had  😞 

:-)
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 3:18am

Littlesmile the DIY-at home testing often expects you to go for nasal swabs...the "official testing sites" (at least here in NL) take nose/throat swabs...for PCR-testing.

Real number of deaths may be "easier" to make realistic estimates on-compared to the Spanish Flu deaths...We have now better basic civil administration to start with in most countries. Some countries do have a problem there...NOT having a basic administration on births and deaths is making realistic numbers much harder...

Then you have to agree on what is a "CoViD-death" (UK/Russia only count those dying within 4 weeks of a positive test...not that realistic...). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has cases/deaths per million, per country....

India still claiming 344 deaths per million-while global average is more then twice that number at 700.5 (deaths per million=dpm). Peru has 6,023 dpm...(=0,6% of Peru population died from CoViD)...So if you would take India population 1,400 million and go for 0,6% of that you end up with 8,4 million India deaths...very likely much more realistic then the almost 482,000 India has as official deaths...

[url]https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates[/url] or https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-estimates goes in between 11 and 22 million per january 3...The WHO itself [url]https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality[/url] or https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality ;

A recent assessment of health information systems capacity in 133 countries found that the percentage of registered deaths ranged from 98% in the European region to only 10% in the African region.

Countries also use different processes to test and report COVID-19 deaths, making comparisons difficult. To overcome these challenges, many countries have turned to excess mortality as a more accurate measure of the true impact of the pandemic.

Excess mortality is defined as the difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis compared to those expected under normal conditions. COVID-19 excess mortality accounts for both the total number of deaths directly attributed to the virus as well as the indirect impact, such as disruption to essential health services or travel disruptions.

DJ I did read somewhere WHO goes for 2x to 3x the official reported number of CoViD deaths-now at around 5,5 million-so between 11 and 16,5 million...same range as the Economist ends up with...

If you would go for a "maximum realistic number-highest range" maybe 0,6% of a global population put at 8 billion could give the maximum-so around 48 million ? 

But "death" is clearly defined...at least better then "long CoViD" or "case"...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-nearly-2-4-million-people-have-symptomatic-covid/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/uk/uk-nearly-2-4-million-people-have-symptomatic-covid/ via ZOE-tracker-self reporting...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ even goes for 2,6 million active UK cases january 2...

[url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=social-distancing&tab=trend[/url] or https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=social-distancing&tab=trend putting UK deaths at 200,000 april/may this year...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ puts active cases now at 30,6 million.

When you go for highest number of cases per million you end up with Andorra-30% of its population testing positive at least once...(Iran, Brazil etc. studies indicate people can catch CoViD several times...) So if you go for 20% of global 8 billion you end up at 1,6 billion global cases this far...if you go for 30% you may see 2,4 billion....

The Spanish Flu may have killed between 2 and 5% of the global population-time range wide between 1917 and 1923, more narrow 1918-1919...The Plague and Roman-time pandemics very likely killing over 30% of the known global population...But there have been civilizations we found traces of-but somehow disappeared...unclear due to what causes...so disease could have ended those civilizations...

The Romans had five expeditions into sub-saharan Africa...one of them may have reached Lake Victoria...but may also have had contact with Ebola...[url]https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/11/solving-the-mystery-of-an-ancient-roman-plague/543528/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/11/solving-the-mystery-of-an-ancient-roman-plague/543528/ ...

Disease did play a role in ending the Roman Empire [url]https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/plagues-roman-empire/473862/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/plagues-roman-empire/473862/ but-as always in history-it is a mega-mix of factors...

If one claims diseases as a main factor how can it be invading German tribes did not catch the disease that much it also would stop them ? 

Pandemics and/in history...endless stories !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 7:53am

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports/omicron?loc=ZAF&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false 








Similar results for Sweden, where BA.2 seems to grow even faster than BA.1 as well! #Omicron #incompletedata


Afbeelding

And;

Because I found bias in the data from India (all BA.2 were found in New Delhi, which had much more samples in the last week), I checked the 5 regions from Denmark. It did not show the same bias though!BA.2 seems to be growing faster than BA.1 (both Omicron) in all Danish regions.


Afbeelding

Afbeelding

Afbeelding

Afbeelding


DJ We may be missing a terrible lot of info because of the horror-timing of cases exploding during christmas/new year....

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/390[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/390

A similar trend in Sweden's populous Skåne (North or Copenhagen, so no surprise), but of course with much weaker numbers (today's upload)

CW 49: 0% (0/67 Om)
CW 50: 2% (2/84 Om)
CW 51: 7% (4/58 Om)

There, Omicron didn't dominate yet, like it did in Denmark, but within-Omicron dynamics didn't look different.

DJ Another finding Omicron did hit the older population in South Africa much harder ; A Lancet preprint looks at omicron's severity in its early epicenter, Gauteng, South Africa Many are discussing the overall result: This wave experienced much less severe disease than past waves. But the age breakdowns tell a slightly different story... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3996320

So both older age, winter and BA.2 increasing may give another outcome of Omicron exploding in the north part of the globe.

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/german-study-shockingly-discovers-that-sars-cov-2-caused-complement-activation-induces-excessive-cd16-t-cells-with-increased-cytotoxic-functions[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/german-study-shockingly-discovers-that-sars-cov-2-caused-complement-activation-induces-excessive-cd16-t-cells-with-increased-cytotoxic-functions  Also factor in long CoViD ? 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/death-rate-skyrockets-40-for-18-64-year-olds[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/death-rate-skyrockets-40-for-18-64-year-olds HT claiming vaccines kills more then CoViD...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 9:34pm

DJ...

A "light start" ...[url]https://www.rt.com/news/545068-cia-world-war-ii-mistake-nazis/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/545068-cia-world-war-ii-mistake-nazis/

In one of the most successful disinformation campaigns of World War II, the Nazis convinced Western powers they were amassing weapons and 100,000 soldiers in the Austro-Bavarian Alps to stage a last stand for survival.

Boghardt told The Guardian it wasn’t the Nazis who were responsible for the myth’s success, but actually a mistake by Allen Dulles, who later became head of the CIA and oversaw the Bay of Pigs disaster.

-

 Another successful myth saw Field Marshal Montgomery, one of Britain’s highest-ranking military figures, arrested by the Americans after the Germans convinced them someone was seeking to impersonate him.

DJ "Information-wars".....

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table  global reported cases 1,334,347 +77% ! deaths "only" 4,421 -6%...(several hours later numbers changed, correction ? 1,368,400 cases/4,520 deaths).

Of those cases Europe had 593,604 +76%, 2,358 deaths -6%...so getting under 50% of global cases, just over 50% of global deaths...epicenter shifting away from Europe...North America did see 455,137 cases +81%, just 789 deaths -2% but these are still reflecting sunday numbers being reported monday...for most of the globe based on 00.00 hrs-00.00 hrs GMT (so UK Time).

South America "only" reporting 79,005 cases- weekly trend there is +162% !!! Former NL Suriname cases +636% ! Argentina cases +204%, Brazil +93%...

Asia may be "doing well" with "just"144,,481 cases being reported +62%, 775 deaths -15%....we all know these numbers are very major underreported..

India cases +238%, deaths still -24%...Israel-with very active healthcare-cases +239%, deaths -29%...

The "discussion/story" on Omicron "mild" is doing a lot of damage...It is NOT mild at all for older people and children ! For young age it is just as bad as Delta ! Most of the reported Omicron cases were of the BA.1 subvariant while a.o. India, Denmark see BA.2 increasing...Also most of the northern part of the globe is in winter, age/population much more different then that of South(ern) Africa...Healthcare in many places allready at breaking point, testing capacity often failing...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/03/schools-reopen-schedule-winter-break-higher-education-still-closed[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/03/schools-reopen-schedule-winter-break-higher-education-still-closed  lots of experts warn reopening most schools per january 10 is unwise...ventilation a major problem....NL cases allready +23%, deaths +8%...

DJ-I can not help but notice a sense of despair in a lot of what I read on twitter...repeating mistakes over and over, ignoring science over and over, "media" giving "balanced views" in discussions between scientists and fools...."Reopening schools a succes" , "you can not keep things closed forever"....forgetting the reason why "we limited contacts"....

"You can not fix stupid" eventhough "stupid shall kill us all".....What is totally missing is knowing what pandemics did in human history...[url]https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/plagues-roman-empire/473862/[/url] or https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/03/plagues-roman-empire/473862/ . The idea that that kind of history can not repeat itself...learning the very, very hard way...virusses are beating us in this "war of the worlds" but "we" simply do not want to see it...very frustrating !

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues with new Delta subvariant AY.23 Indonesia, BA.2 Omicron ; Only 2 sequences so far both from Indian travelers to Singapore but most of the shared mutations with BA.1 appear to be in the spike NTD between codons 69-212 with the exception of S:T95I so perhaps it is a recombinant or something else. Almost all of the mutations of BA.2 are shared. The sequences also share ORF1a:SL2083I with BA.1 outside of the S gene.

But what can go wrong...So there are 18 sequences uploaded on Jan. 2nd 2022 from Indonesia that seem like potential candidate of the second generation Delta. They are still too new to be visible on either Neherlab or Cov-spectrum, but I believe it's worth monitoring from now on.

Delta is NOT gone at all ! Omicron BA.1 may be just the first wave....[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-booster-efficacy-questioned-helsinki-study-shows-only-minimal-nab-titers-against-omicron-among-the-elderly-following-booster-shot[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-booster-efficacy-questioned-helsinki-study-shows-only-minimal-nab-titers-against-omicron-among-the-elderly-following-booster-shot  Ignoring studies indicating there is a limit to what (present) boosters/vaccines can bring...variants mutate around immunity high speed... STOP THE SPREAD.... but nobody seems to listen...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/preprint-omicron-now-binds-to-mouse-ace2/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/omicron/preprint-omicron-now-binds-to-mouse-ace2/ just as a reminder of this pandemic moving into other species, trillions of non-human hosts....IT IS NOT A FLU !!!!!

Since the global CDC to NBC keep doing a bad job ; [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/testing/rapid-lft-antigen-tests-swab-your-throat-as-well-as-your-nose/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/testing/rapid-lft-antigen-tests-swab-your-throat-as-well-as-your-nose/  you may not be able to detect Omicron in your nose....test your throat as well !  Why this news has to go via alternative media/twitter ????

-US politics go for what they promised, Democrats want war with Russia, Republicans war with China....and Israel wants the US to do the war against Iran...[url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/ ....

End of part 1...No further news on B.1.640.2 variant...some of the sequencing may only start next week ? A lancet study on Omicron in Gauteng-South Africa misused as a "claim" Omicron would not bring serious problems for Europe, the America's, Asia....while the study only describes the SA outbreak...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2022 at 9:57pm

part 2, twitter...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator








WHAT!??! FL Surgeon Gen standing in front of an "EARLY Treatment Saves Live" podium saying we need to stop testing EARLY treatment is only possible if we test and diagnose early. Else our treatments are useless. A test is not some conspiracy - it is how we see the virus!


DJ..Is there any hope left ? Will "we" never stop repeating stupidity ? U.S. COVID update: More than 1 million new cases, including backlogs - New cases: 1,045,968 - Average: 494,660 (+81,979) - States reporting: 44/50 - In hospital: 104,737 (+6,034) - In ICU: 19,542 (+654) - New deaths: 1,909 - Average: 1,343 (+33) Data: https://newsnodes.com/us

If you do not like the results...








1/12  In our paper "The hyper-transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant exhibits significant antigenic change, vaccine escape and a switch in cell entry mechanism", a huge team effort, we describe a fundamental shift in antigenicity and cell entry of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant







BREAKING: Number of Americans hospitalized with COVID-19 tops 100,000

It is "only mild" ...








They finally get it. T cells drive pathology in severe covid-19, as I wrote in Frontiers back in 2020 https://timesofisrael.com/israeli-study-urges-rethink-of-covids-nature-indicates-antioxidants-may-help/amp/

Ignoring science in part by fellow scientists...








9. The history of public health is littered with examples of vested interests resisting calls for better sanitation, better workplace safety, cleaner air etc., because such things disrupt the status quo and require investment. They would rather trade your life for their money.





If you have a good idea, better tell your boss it was his/her idea !

Some retweets from [url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp








For those outside Australia Vlag van Australië, some covid context here: - Major strategy pivot towards “herd immunity” - ⅓ of cases in last 2 years occurred in last 4 days - this is an underestimate, since massive testing shortage (25% test positivity rate) 1/


Herd immunity strategy with a corona-virus disease has been stupid from the start !  Australia cases +228%, deaths +35% ...

78% of 915 kids hospitalized last  summer with COVID at 6 children’s hospitals were there not just with, but because of COVID; 1.5% (11/713) died, a death rate similar to some types of pediatric open-heart surgery. COVID in kids is not harmless. Let’s stop pretending it is.

Childrens right on safety goes even before a right on education ! You should not reopen schools to get children infected in the crazy belief that would provide some immunity...allow parents to go to their jobs...Schools have to be a safe place ! 

Warning on death data on https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk  NHS England has not reported hospital deaths since 1 January. The backlog will be reported Wednesday. Data are incomplete yesterday, today and tomorrow. Expect a bigger number reported on Wednesday.

DJ-I know people need a break, but it feels like the fire department having a coffee while the house is burning....Decissions like reopening of schools are based on incomplete info/data...we may be missing a lot of info on increase of BA.2 Omicron subvariant spreading much faster then the-now dominant-BA.1 Omicron subvariant, missing a lot of info on Delta sub-variants, B.1.640.2 very likely to be increasing ? in France, UK etc...

Many countries face 25-30% of the tests being positive (ECDC norm is <3%, WHO <5%) with testing capacity not enough in most places (and some even claiming we should stop testing...). 

I could go on with more twitter, more bad news....as long as "Media-Experts-Politics" only learn in the very hardest way-bodies piling up, lots of good scientists, journalists, politicians only get more frustrated...

My goal with this scenario's is getting a view on what is happening....by now this pandemic is even more a risk then climate collapse allready was...I would love to see me wrong-based on science (did see dr.j.c. omicron=mild lancet translation nonsense...hopium...please !). 

Hoping "info would fix stupid" ...but to optimistic there...

On B.1.640.2 [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ;








For those interested first upload of B.1.640.2 onto GISAID was on 4th Nov 2021 from Paris by Roquebert et al, first uploaded Omi was almost 3 weeks later on 22nd Nov 2021 from HK by Alan et al







and as  pointed out there havent been any new sequences uploaded since before Christmas... this virus has had a decent chance to cause trouble but never really materialised (as far as we can tell at least...



So maybe B.1.640.2 is "selling news" not science ? Lots of chat about B.1.640.2 in the last few days - just a few points to keep in mind: - B.1.640.2 actually predates Omicron - in all that time there are exactly... 20 sequences (compared to the >120k Omis in less time) Def not one worth worrying about too much at the mo..

He may be wrong there [url]https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19[/url] or https://www.santepubliquefrance.fr/dossiers/coronavirus-covid-19 did give a warning december 31....hope to learn more on it in a new weekly update

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2022 at 11:31am

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220104-france-s-daily-covid-19-cases-top-270-000[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220104-france-s-daily-covid-19-cases-top-270-000 ;

French health authorities on Tuesday said they had registered 271,686 new Covid-19 infections, the highest recorded to date, confirming France's position as Europe's hardest-hit country as the Omicron wave sweeps across the continent.


The more-contagious Omicron variant of coronavirus drove the number of confirmed cases in France to more than 160,000 per day last week and more than 200,000 for four consecutive days over the weekend.

France on Saturday became the sixth country in the world to report more than 10 million Covid-19 infections since the outbreak of the pandemic, according to official data.

"The tidal wave has indeed arrived, it's enormous, but we will not give in to panic," Health Minister Olivier Véran told parliament.

In a fresh effort to combat Covid transmission, French MPs on Monday began debating draft legislation that would require most people to be vaccinated against Covid-19 before entering public spaces. The bill would make it mandatory for people to show proof of being vaccinated – and not just a negative Covid test or proof one has recovered from coronavirus – to access public venues and transport.

Dubbed the "vaccine pass", the bill's main measure is aimed at convincing France's remaining 5 million unvaccinated people over the age of 12 to get inoculated.

DJ Vaccine passports do NOT stop the spread...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table reporting UK 218,724 new cases...

On B.1.640.2 [url]https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2022/01/04/covid-19-what-is-the-b16402-variant-first-discovered-in-france/[/url] or https://www.thenationalnews.com/coronavirus/2022/01/04/covid-19-what-is-the-b16402-variant-first-discovered-in-france/ ;

Experts have played down fears about a relatively new coronavirus variant first detected in France and linked to travel to Cameroon.

Researchers at the IHU Méditerranée Infection in Marseille posted their as yet not peer reviewed findings on December 29, on the website medRxiv. They detailed 12 infections in the same geographical area of south-eastern France from the variant tentatively identified as B.1.640.2.

-

A website called Thailand Medical had claimed that there had been 952 cases of B.1.640.2 as of January 1, without offering verifiable evidence.


According to Dr Tom Peacock, a virologist at the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London, the discovery of B.1.640.2 predates that of the Omicron variant by several weeks. He said the first published report on B.1.640.2 by researchers was on November 4.

DJ Point is French Public Health did give a warning for it december 31...[url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu ;








(so full disclosure on this - right after I posted this thread a new 640.2 sequence from Marseille got uploaded - fact still remains this is a total of 21 sequence over 2.5 months. The odd sequence, or even cluster, may continue to appear but zero sign currently its taking off)

So where did Thailand Medical News get the allmost 1,000 samples per january 3 from ? French database ? Somehow not getting more into the news ? 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-melatonin-based-drugs-inhibit-sars-cov-2-entry-into-the-brain-and-prevent-damage-of-cerebral-vessels-might-be-good-for-long-covid[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/study-shows-that-melatonin-based-drugs-inhibit-sars-cov-2-entry-into-the-brain-and-prevent-damage-of-cerebral-vessels-might-be-good-for-long-covid another interesting study on melatonin...

[url]https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1478379407882559493/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/ShaunLintern/status/1478379407882559493/photo/1 London-UK in short...

Also confirmed: 

 has declared a critical incident due to high demand, staff absences and "rapidly rising rates of Covid-19" leading to increased admissions #livingwithcovid








Great Western Hospital declares a critical incident this morning. Good to see transparent announcement from  here:

DJ [url]https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections[/url] or https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-kingdom?view=infections-testing&tab=trend&test=infections trying to look into nearby weeks for the UK...








Greece has recorded 50 126 new cases in the last 24 hours. For a population of around 10.7 million, that is equivalent to 1 in every 213 people testing positive

DJ Simply crazy numbers allmost 0,5% of all Greeks testing positive on one day...(maybe some delays in reporting...still crazy !)








"Omicron forms a distinct antigenic cluster that is sufficiently different that, if this was influenza, it would likely be time for a vaccine update"

And Omicron is still spreading-so mutating-like "crazy"....[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=IND ; BA.2 now 1% of cases in India...BA.1 5% over last 60 days...[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=IND&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=IND&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false 7% of India cases december 24.










We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2022 at 10:34pm

DJ, 

Record numbers-still most cases NOT will have seen any testing....One of the very alarming "new developments" in this pandemic is Omicron (with the BA.2 variant now spreading much faster, while BA.1 is gaining dominance around the globe) and B.1.640.2 have that many mutations it is getting close to a"new" coronavirus. Very likely some of the around 200 subvariants of Delta still find places to spread...coinfect with Omicron and/or other variants...Coinfections with flu also has been detected, other coinfections-also in non-human hosts-more then likely....

So where does this put us ? In fact-of course-we have been living with viral diseases since humans are around...We did find/fight (for) a balance...do not have any other options left...still we have to reorganize the way we live-just like with climate "change/collapse"....and that is a very major problem. 

DJ-In my very limited-non expert view viral diseases, pandemics can end us.....finish humans....

If we keep failing-like we do with climate collapse-to understand the risks "stupid will kill us"! 

Nature does not joke....we better get much clever fast !

The idea that one variant of CoViD will replace another variant may be outdated...CoViD "started a family" and "they now all spread together"....

My basic idea is STOP THE SPREAD ! And I still believe in that idea...limiting contacts=limiting spread...

We do not stop the spread because we are "such social beings caring for eachother" but for economic reasons-only in part greed. 

You have to have an economy to have healthcare...to make human life possible. But we may have been "having a very destructive economy"...refind a sort of balance with nature. 

History did show pandemics are NOT a joke-diseases were part of the end of the (Western) Roman Empire. Also in the 21st century-maybe even because of it-high speed travel, allmost 8 billion people-pandemics can cause very serious problems-we better start facing that !

And there are so many options, choices to make...but it all starts with improving communications. 

Limiting airtravel to 5-10% of pre-pandemic level would put at least limits to spreading variants/virus around the globe like we did with the wild type/Wuhan early 2020, Delta april 2021, Omicron november 2021...Airtravel is the basis of this pandemic...WE are doing this to ourselves ! 

By that we are killing ourselves ! Like we kill ourselves via climate change....

STOP IT !

end of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2022 at 10:53pm

DJ, 

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ;

New reported cases-in part no doubt delayed reporting; 2,150,463 weekly trend +82% !!! Deaths as far as reported as CoViD deaths 7,190 trend -3%. 

No doubt most of the new cases will be Omicron-a lot BA.1, an increasing number BA.2-the worser type...still lots of Delta subvariants-some of the subvariants very likely to increase. B.1.640.2 also very likely...again people/non human hosts may carry more then one variant...The CoViD-family now has several family members different enough from eachother to coexist...

We lack testing/sequencing capacity...in fact may hardly know what is hitting us...

"Media-Experts-Politics" "the show must go on" still in denial of how bad this pandemic is getting...Danish numbers Omicron cases 2/3 of Delta cases ending up in hospital, UK study claiming only 1/3 "so it is mild"....and yes...vaccinated/booster does decrease chances of ending up at a ventilator/ICU or dead...Boosters offer 75% protection for a short time-dropping to 40% after 10 weeks-against symptromatic infection....some studies suggest...I would have to look it up...for the bigger picture I simply do not care for that kind of studies... variants are now developing that fast those studies are "old and outdated" by the time they are presented...

Variants are getting better and better in evading immunity...we can NOT !!!!! vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic !!!

That was known at the start of this pandemic-when one does look at corona viral disease in animals...Culling /killing all the animals in an infected area as-often-the only solution. Still "we" went for herd immunity...now going for herd-immunity with vaccines...no long term strategy...even the best experts with decades of study/experience now facing questions they could not even dream of in their worst nightmares..

We simply do NOT have ANY experts for this kind of crisis...we have very good epidemiologists, virologists, but they have never faced this kind of outbreaks...

We need leaders that can unite the people-not further divide them like Macron in France [url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220105-macron-says-he-wants-to-piss-off-france-s-unvaccinated[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20220105-macron-says-he-wants-to-piss-off-france-s-unvaccinated France 90% of 18+ allready is vaccinated ! ...Germany is splitting up again with major protests in the former East Germany every monday evening against mandatory vaccinations...In NL -I am very sorry to say-police is getting unable-in part due to spending cuts-to deal with protests in a correct manner...

So numbers; 

Europe reporting 1,092,014 new cases-weekly trend +72%, deaths 3,236 trend -4% ...when you look at UK numbers-going for "natural & booster immunity (also in children) cases 218,724, trend +52%, deaths (as far as reported as CoViD deaths) only 48..trend however +52% last week UK reported 599 Covid deaths, last 7 days it grew to 909...allmost 130 per day...

North America reported 634,528 new cases-most of them in the US..trend +99% (US +100%) deaths 1,962 trend +1% (US +2%).

In South America Argentina reported 81,210 new cases...South America trend for cases +156%, deaths "only still" +4%..

Asia-home to 4 billion+ people...India underreporting 58,097 new cases..Asia trend for cases +75%...India trend +316% !!! Asia deaths still -11%, India -14%....

Israel cases +215%, Philippines +1,512% for cases...China cases +33%....sticking to Zero Covid will be very hard-with winter olympics on its way...even with very much restrictions...

Oceania then...cases +248%, deaths +47%...51 deaths last week, 75 this last 7 days...Australia cases +250%, deaths +44%...New Zealand cases +8%, deaths just 1 for each week...so 0% change. 

To finish this list Africa...cases +6%, deaths +27%...South Africa cases -36%, deaths however +63% (last week 366, this week 597), Zimbabwe-also hit very hard at the start of Omicron, cases still +4%, deaths +14% with limited testing...Some "experts" being very fast in their claims South Africa Omicron data showed "it was only mild" nonsense...you can only make claims after at least 4 weeks after cases going up...long term issues is even another matter...most "Media-Experts-Politcs" simply ignore long CoViD...part of the strategy to do so is by not having a clear definition to start with...

A look at variants with [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/393[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/393 ; So there are 18 sequences uploaded on Jan. 2nd 2022 from Indonesia that seem like potential candidate of the second generation Delta. They are still too new to be visible on either Neherlab or Cov-spectrum, but I believe it's worth monitoring from now on.

Substitutions on top of AY.23:

GeneMutations
ORF1a:T170I, A1708D, A1716T
ORF1b:H1948R
ORF3a:T24I, P25S
ORF10:R24C
Spike:N17del, L18I, T22I, P25L, 242/243del, E484Q, N501I, I1115V
nucT4885C, C4921T, A10912G, C12295T, A13566G, C17550T, C24130T, C25096T

DJ 23 mutations on top of the AY.23 Delta sub-variant...I would have to look for how many mutations AY.23 itself did show (and compared to what ?) ...I do not have the knowledge for that...but is this Indonesia Delta subvariant not getting also close to being a new kind of CoViD-virus ? Indonesia cases only +25% ? 

End of part 2...part 3 flutrackers etc. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 04 2022 at 11:49pm

part 3, DJ

I try to balance my view with info from experts-since I am not an expert at all ! (Maybe an expert in not being an expert !). Try to get a general view, helicopter view, the big picture...learning from those with the knowledge, try to find out what makes sense to me...

I do have a very limited history background...history is also confronted with lots of views on what are the important facts and why, what did they mean ? Maybe one basic lesson from history is to keep open minded the best you can...try to understand people, choices they (could) make...not judge those choices how bad the actions may have been...

In the 20th century people did kill eachother on an industrial level so many times it would be wise people would show more selfreflection...think even more before acting...

-A look at Flutrackers; In my opinion often with a bit more expertism...people with better medical knowledge then on this forum. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933971-cidrap-pandemic-birth-tied-to-poor-development[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933971-cidrap-pandemic-birth-tied-to-poor-developmentA pair of new US studies detail COVID-19 risk and protective factors in infants in the first 6 months of life, one showing that being born during the pandemic is linked to impaired neurodevelopment, and the other finding that breast milk may contain SARS-CoV-2 antibodies that are not significantly reduced by pasteurization for as long as 6 months.

Maternal COVID not linked to impaired development

study today in JAMA Pediatrics led by Columbia University researchers involved 255 infants born to COVID-19–infected and uninfected women between March and December 2020. They assessed infant neurodevelopment using the third edition of the Ages & Stages Questionnaire (ASQ-3) at 6 months and conducted a secondary analysis of 62 infants born at the same medical center from November 2017 through January 2020.
Among the 255 infants, 114 (44.7%) had been exposed to COVID-19 in utero, and 141 (55.3%) were unexposed. Median maternal age at delivery was 32.0 years. Most mothers had asymptomatic (34%) or mild (62%) illness and were infected in the second (47%) or third (31%) trimester. Four percent of mothers were severely ill, and 22% were infected in the first trimester.
Regardless of COVID-19 status or timing, in utero exposure to maternal COVID-19 infection was not tied to significant differences in any of the five ASQ-3 subdomains. But relative to infants born before the pandemic, those delivered after January 2020 scored significantly lower on the gross motor (average difference, -5.63), fine motor (−6.61), and personal-social (−3.71) areas after adjustment.
The researchers said that the lack of neurodevelopmental differences between infants with and without COVID-19 exposure in the womb and the differences between infants born before and after the emergence of COVID-19 suggests that pandemic-related stresses such as job loss and food and housing insecurity could have contributed to the impairments.
"Consistent with our finding that infants born to women who were in the first trimester of pregnancy during the pandemic peak had the lowest scores in gross motor, fine motor, and personal-social subdomains, data from numerous cohort studies have demonstrated that prenatal perceived stress, loneliness, and objective stress, especially during early gestation, are associated with an increased risk for adverse neurodevelopment in children," the researchers wrote.
They called for long-term monitoring of children born during the pandemic and for further investigation into the role of maternal stress in impaired infant neurodevelopment.

DJ-Good news in itself...I think stress-reduction would be welcome for most people...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933970-cidrap-early-israeli-findings-show-fivefold-boost-from-fourth-covid-vaccine-dose[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933970-cidrap-early-israeli-findings-show-fivefold-boost-from-fourth-covid-vaccine-dose ; Researchers from Israel reported promising preliminary findings from a study on fourth COVID-19 vaccine shots, which suggest the second booster produces a fivefold increase in antibody levels.

More global headlines

  • The Chinese city of Yuzhou, home to 1.2 million in Henan province, is on lockdown after three asymptomatic cases were detected, according to The Guardian. Meanwhile, the city of Xian in Shaanxi province is in its 12th lockdown day, and cases are still being reported, including 95 yesterday, according to the country's National Health Commission.
  • In India, where cases have quadrupled over the past week, officials in Delhi announced a lockdown for the next two weekends to help curb cases. Businesses are also being urged to allow people to work from home on weekdays. The sprawling metropolitan area has a population of more than 18 million people.
  • Australia's daily COVID-19 total reached a new record high today, with hospitalizations rising to their highest levels of the pandemic and the country's testing capacity hitting speed bumps, according to Reuters.
  • The global total today climbed to 294,389,659 cases, along with 5,454,555 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ; What is the long term plan ? A booster vaccination every month ? Can we get vaccines protecting to all kinds of Corona-infections ? Should we not be doing much more to limit spread as long as vaccines are simply not good enough on the long run ? 

In my opinion China, New Zealand and a few other countries are the few with a long-term strategy...Would this pandemic have ended if we did follow their strategies ? Lots of testing. stop travel, strict isolation for those testing positive ? 

The "dominant" (lack of) strategy seems still to be going for some sort of herd immunity with the help of lots of vaccines, medication...so far the pandemic is "not moving in the right direction" to put it polite...( We are totally f%&ked up...in a total disaster, with panic-control based on hopium as a sort of last stand..) 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latest; vaccines do not work well in Iceland
current vaccine effectivity in Iceland
see https://www.covid.is/data
VE(2shots,case) = -88% (Jan02)
VE(3shots,case) = 38% (Jan02)
VE(2shots,hosp) = 71% (Dec28)
VE(3shots,hosp) = 84% (Dec28)
-----------------------------------------------
and it's decreasing.. And Israel gives 4th doses
no vaccine report from the UK this week (why ?)
no vaccine update from Ontario Jan01-Jan03 (why ?)

cases are increasing now in the older groups in UK
hospitalisations are still going up everywhere, AFAIK
(admissions in London down the last 2 days)
cases in London seem to be going down

DJ Herd immunity/vaccination-booster strategy is NOT getting us out of this pandemic ! Did buy us limited time we wasted on reopening and "hopium"...time for a better strategy ! But since "leaders" have to do the job we need other people/visions to get to another strategy...Still-most people around the globe even did not get a chance to get just ONE vaccine ! So if you have the luxery of a free vaccines-take it ! YES there are risks ! But it still offers-for now-at least some protection even against severe disease from Omicron ! Not much in this world is perfect !

Flutrackers full of avian-flu-so far most in birds...but no longer "only" H5N1...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza the H5 "family" goes from H5N1 to H5N9...but it is a much larger avian flu family going from H1N1 to H15N9...no doubt lots of new developments "as we speak". Hosts can catch both CoViD and "A-Flu"...so it can mix both ways; CoViD in birds with flu, or flu in people, cats etc. with CoViD variants..."endless possibilities"....

Sublineage BA.2 not spotted by S-gene drop tests. That variant does not have the spike del 69-70 mutation.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/88654437.cms

‘Foreign test kits can’t spot Omicron's elusive sibling

Read more at:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/a...campaign=cppst

DJ Testing most likely a growing problem both in capacity and in tests itself ..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/933821-there-s-a-new-drug-to-prevent-covid-19-but-there-won-t-be-nearly-enough-for-americans-who-are-eligible[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/933821-there-s-a-new-drug-to-prevent-covid-19-but-there-won-t-be-nearly-enough-for-americans-who-are-eligible .....DJ Worldometers put active global cases at allmost 34 million...number going up with 1 million+ per day and still an undercounting due to lack of testing...boosters/medications only for an exclusive club of rich that did cause the problem but does not want to pay the price...the extreme large numbers is the problem in itself...average daily global cases by now 1 million+ if only 1% would need hospital care-10,000 people per day worldwide needing hospitalcare is simply impossible to deal with...wake up ! Get real ! LOCKDOWN NOW ! STOP THE SPREAD ! 

I see myself as an optimistic person-we can get out of this mess, we are doing it to ourselves...limit contacts, spread...not high tech !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933806-cidrap-covid-activity-ramps-up-in-india-middle-east[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/933806-cidrap-covid-activity-ramps-up-in-india-middle-east

COVID activity ramps up in India, Middle East

Filed Under:

COVID-19

Lisa Schnirring | News Editor | CIDRAP News

| Jan 03, 2022

India today began vaccinating teens as its latest COVID-19 wave gained momentum, and some countries in the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), reported new case rises.

India enters third surge

Ever since it battled a catastrophic COVID-19 surge last spring, India has been bracing for another round of infections and making preparations. Over the past few days, cases have sharply risen, but hospitalizations remain low, New Delhi health officials said yesterday, according to Reuters.

Cases had dropped to about 6,000 a day, but daily totals have risen sharply for 5 days in a row, with 33,750 reported today, with much of the activity from New Delhi and Mumbai. So far, the country has reported 1,700 Omicron cases.

Today, India opened vaccination to teens ages 15 to 18, with campaigns at schools and health centers across the country, according to Reuters. India has the world's largest adolescent population. So far, the country has immunized more than 3.8 million teens.

Younger age groups have fueled the initial rise in Omicron cases in other countries, including the United Kingdom, and health officials are using vaccines as a key tool for keeping schools open, amid surging levels in many countries, especially in the wake of holiday gatherings.

In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia's daily COVID-19 cases rose above the 1,000-case threshold for the first time since August, and in the neighboring United Arab Emirates (UAE), cases crossed the 2,500-case threshold, according to a separate Reuters report.

Record highs in earlier affected countries

Despite case reporting delays over the holidays, many countries reported record daily cases over the past few days, including Australia, where hospitalizations are rising, but not at a level that is overwhelming facilities. Staff illnesses, however, are contributing to pressure on the health system.

Britain on Jan 1 reported a new daily record high of 162,572 cases, with hospitalizations and deaths at lower levels than earlier waves. Today, the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson said officials are closely watching the numbers and hospital trends, but so far, the virus appears milder and no new restrictions are warranted for now. He also acknowledged that hospitals are likely to face increasing pressure in the weeks ahead.

Other European countries reported new daily record highs over the New Year's holiday, including FranceGreeceItaly, and Portugal.

Meanwhile, United States on Dec 29 reported a world daily record high of more than 484,000 new cases.

More global headlines

  • Israel yesterday announced that it would offer a fourth COVID-19 vaccine dose to people older than 60 and to health workers.
  • South African researchers writing in a new preprint study revealed more clues on how the Omicron behaves in cells. They suggest the variant is less specialized in its entry route into cells, which may allow it to more efficiently enter a greater number in the upper airway.
  • The global COVID-19 total has climbed to 291,651,187 cases, along with 5,447,340 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ Both India and China going for mass vaccinations...billions of them...most used vaccines around a willing globe are NOT mRNA vaccines....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/934029-intern-med-a-case-of-suspected-tuberculous-pleurisy-and-coronavirus-disease-2019-comorbidity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/934029-intern-med-a-case-of-suspected-tuberculous-pleurisy-and-coronavirus-disease-2019-comorbidityAbstract

A 33-year-old woman with a fever, cough, and pharyngitis was admitted after left-sided pleural effusion was detected. The fever and upper respiratory symptoms were confirmed, and she was diagnosed with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) after showing a positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test. After thoracentesis, pleural fluid revealed elevated adenosine deaminase values and a positive QuantiFeron test; tuberculous pleurisy was thus suspected. Subsequent SARS-CoV-2 PCR and anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG tests were negative, suggesting that the initial PCR result had been erroneous. However, we were unable to confirm this. Data concerning COVID-19 diagnostics are insufficient at present. It is important to make comprehensive judgments regarding the diagnosis and treatment of patients as well as public health.

DJ  CoViD in parts of the globe with allready high HIV+ population will be a lot worse...TB/CoViD coinfection (with [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis#Medication_resistance[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tuberculosis#Medication_resistance a growing problem) is something you would love to avoid...

Not FluTrackers [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/world-health-organization-warns-that-current-exponential-spread-of-omicron-could-lead-to-more-dangerous-and-lethal-variants-emerging[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/world-health-organization-warns-that-current-exponential-spread-of-omicron-could-lead-to-more-dangerous-and-lethal-variants-emerging ;DJ I can not copy parts of the good info-but agree with the basic story - from a pandemic point of view "Omicron being mild" is undone by its very high spread...Also "it will run out of variants" is not science-based hopium, unrealistic "optimism"non-sense stopping us from taking needed actions ! 

Because we have to do much more ! Vaccines will not save us-at best buy us time...This pandemic is going exponential ! 

PLEASE !!! Try to look back at how it looked like early 2020-and where we are now....where do we go from here has to do with what actions we take and when....Do we want to see 100,000 "extra deaths" per day as a new normal claiming 50+ y/o "died from old age"-nonsense ? 

We have to do more-the good news is we CAN do more !

end of part 3...enough time so part 4 is twitter...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
Back to Top
Dutch Josh View Drop Down
Adviser Group
Adviser Group


Joined: May 01 2013
Location: Arnhem-Netherla
Status: Online
Points: 63537
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 05 2022 at 2:02am

part 4A, twitter; tech-problem due to twitter ?)








Here's the main problem for ICUs. The 70+ cohort was at 1/3 of its admissions per 100k peak just two weeks ago & they are at 68% now. While younger broke their records previously, it's the 70+ group that's the most vulnerable; #SARS2 seems to have just reached them in this wave.


Afbeelding


DJ-I am starting to hate "it is only mild" non-sense ! Omicron-in fact-just started ! Lots of indications Omicron and young children results in very high spread and record number of children ending up in hospital...even with schools still closed in many places....From a pandemic view a million+ cases per day is a total disaster ! 








India reports 58,097 new coronavirus cases, an increase of 532% from last week







U.S. COVID update: Number in hospital sees biggest one-day jump to date - New cases: 838,080* - Average: 555,461 (+60,801) - States reporting: 47/50 - In hospital: 113,424 (+8,687) - In ICU: 20,617 (+1,075) - New deaths: 2,358 * Includes backlogs Data: https://newsnodes.com/us

Just a reminder most cases/deaths never have seen any testing at all ! Some "experts" still sticking to "Omicron ending this pandemic-mild"claims...we are running out of hospital staff...worldwide that is ! We are running out of testing capacity...forget about testing in animals, sequencing...








Compared to the other variants, Omicron is less trophic for the lower respiratory tract and therefore less prone to cause pneumonitis. This probably explains the lower case-fatality and case-ventilation rates. However, the expectation that somehow Omicron variant will








bring an end to the pandemic by harmlessly inducing so-called herd immunity is, IMHO, dangerous magical and wishful thinking, for three reasons. 1. Omicron is causing severe consequences in some people, particularly, those who are vulnerable. With very high case numbers,

even relatively uncommon bad outcomes (death or permanent disability) will occur in large numbers. 2. There is no evidence that natural infection with SARS-CoV-2 leads to sustain protection against re-infection. Hence, protective herd immunity cannot be achieved by "letting it rip". 3. Variants arise due to massive (uncontrolled) transmission events. This is how each of the previous variants of concern have arisen. The rate of transmission in many countries right now (including Australia) makes it very likely that new variants will arise.

A lot of sense and realism !