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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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Tabitha111 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2020 at 5:53am

You are awesome DJosh!  Thanks for all you do! from a fellow "news Junkie"

'When you feel as though you can't do something, the simple antidote is action: Begin doing it. Start the process, even if it's just a simple step, and don't stop at the beginning.'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2020 at 9:48pm

Thanks Tabitha111, 

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] Good news-outcome ratio-global-now has dropped to 8% deaths, 92% discharged. OK-these are statistics-with that much spread in "poor" countries that hardly test the real numbers are not easy to catch in statistics. In my opinion in reality outcome ratio worsens; very limited care capacity with fast growing numbers. Often in "poor"countries it is a younger population-with better chances. (In the US it is still 10% deaths !)

A few months back there was a "sort of trend" of 75-80% mild cases (could still include pneumonia, causing lasting damage) on the other end around 5% needing ICU-that is hardly there in "poor countries". The remaining 15-20% needed hospital care. 

In "poor countries" there are often already co-morbidities, from HIV, TB, diabetes to malaria. Life expectency in some of the worst places under "normal conditions" is around 40 years. With locusts eating the harvest, climate chaos, wars, the corona-crisis in "poor countries" may become a massive killer. But "untested" they end up in mass graves not in statistics...

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/06/boris-johnsons-government-hides-covid-19-data-that-is-needed-to-control-new-local-outbreaks.html[/url]-As always good info-this time on the UK "number game". Most countries give "limited data"-certainly with elections on the way if they can claim a succes the governments will do so. Even the mayor of Leicester was surprised by the news his region had to be lock-downed again-even at that level the real info/numbers were not available.

-Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5dhemK4R_o[/url] also starts of with the "number game". US cases still exploding-Dr.Fauci warning for 100.000 new US cases per day (wich may get tested-if they are lucky-but that is about it in treatment-with these kind of massive numbers). 

PP/CM mentions California-if it would be a country-would have #7 in global economies. Also Texas getting hit very hard. Economic damage is huge-FED hiding it by buying all the stocks, debts etc. they can (and make the rich even more rich-in US$-the days of US$ is "under pressure" but that is another side of the corona-crisis.)

-US-CDC "it is out of control". DJ-Most likely in the US the CDC can advise governments. The problem is with those governments "saving the economy" by lifting the only "weapon"available, Non Pharma Intervention. If there is limited immunity (Most countries not much more than 5% test positive on anti-bodies), no accepted cure or vaccine the only thing able to stop the virus is slowing down/stop community spread. No NPI=disaster and that is even worse for the economy. 

-DJ-In all countries the spread in population is uneven. If you are retired early, can work/study from home, have private transport and groceries delivered you have much better chances than when you havo to "go into the crowd" by job, public transport-have limited job security and health insurance. This inequality will/has become a major problem. Why accept any government rules if the governments keep failing on providing even basic security ? It is the poor that end up losing their job, than their housing and health at the end dying-because they are poor. Given the number of poor people in much countries and them getting aware of how they are being mistreated no way they will accept that. 

-New H1N1 in China still in the phase of jumping from pigs to humans (DJ-Is it ? If China did not share info on Covid19 in time-I think they may not have realized how big the problem was in time-do they do that much better now ? Are should we "read between the lines" and is this new China-pig-H1N1 already a major worry in China ?)

-DJ-Lots of people claim Covid19 is not a big deal,access deaths dropping below normal numbers, high "recovery". PP-May reports of long lasting severe healthissues in recovered cases. In many countries hospital care close to collapse. From Israel reports in cases that test negative after infection of extreme pain-doctors can not find a reason behind the pain. (DJ-Could the virus be hiding in muscles-still doing damage-may re-emerge ?)

-DJ (based on PP) Conclusions; you do not want to catch this virus. The US is a failed state in the FED spending billions/trillions to save Boeing, Coca Cola, Warren Buffet etc but zero for the average guy. Covid19 is out of control.


  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2020 at 11:32pm

DJ-Some jumps; [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.2000.html[/url]and [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3154.0.html[/url] nearly 40% of the Arctic Sea Ice Forum expect 2020 to see less-or same amount of sea-ice in the Arctic than in 2012 record low. Discussion on what to expect the coming two months-with high pressure over the Arctic-lots of sunshine and melting. 

Less sea ice in the Arctic=more instability in global weather-also very likely more extremes. This will increase further the already existing food crisis-wich will increase global social unrest-wars for water, food on top of energy wars. 

-The Peak Prosperity episode of today-posted above-more or less concludes the US is sinking to a failed state. (DJ-With growing social unrest, exploding health problems, more extreme weather events, collapsing infra structure.) From the BRICS Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa may not be abble to get a grip on Covid19 soon. Only China maybe can claim some succes. 

The EU (with the UK still in the EU since Brexit still only is words) is not doing very well. UK-close to out of control-with misleading statistics (only counting hospital cases). Germany struggling to deal with major outbreaks. [url]https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkels-last-eu-council-presidency-what-to-expect/a-54000969[/url] (DW-Can Merkel save the EU ?)

DJ-My question/worry is how close are we to global collapse ? What will it look like ? How long will it take ? 

-[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-russian-military-amassing-forces-in-raqqa/[/url] and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-and-turkey-increase-flights-to-libya-as-major-showdown-at-sirte-approaches/[/url] DJ-Both in Syria and Libya (and maybe Yemen) there is a growing risk of a confrontation between Turkey and Russia. The US may choose to back Turkey. The Pakistan-India-China confrontation for now is showing some de-escalation. (DJ-Most likely India knows it will get hit very hard in any such confrontation-not only by Pakistan and China but also conflicts with Nepal, Bangla Desh, Myamar etc. the best option is to use Russia as a mediator to limit damage.) 

-Besides from extreme weather events also growing risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Both partly related to less ice keeping pressure on shelves due to extreme melting. We will most likely see a M8+ quake in "the ring of fire" this year-maybe in combination with major volcanic eruptions. 

-Our ability to deal with these kind of disasters will be very limited. A new Fukushima nuclear accident may be a "big challange". (With more nuclear plants in poor/other countries, India, UAE, Turkey, Egypt that would need foreign help to deal with a crisis.) Health issues will worsen due to such major events. 

DJ-Will we survive-as human species-till 2025 ? Do we find answers to this many crises ? Is there still a way out, do we have some time left ? I hate to ask these questions because I hate the answers....at best "we don't know". Many changes will come very fast.

-EU-Russia-China cooperation ? End of US and US-petro$ dominance ?

-Renewable energy "revolution" with fossil fuels only used to "buy time" ?

-A "global police state" contact tracing every person 24/7 and strict medical rules, forced vaccination/testing etc. ?

-A "two world system"; world 1=safe, good healthcare, housing education etc. world 2=chaos (and at war with world 1 that controls world 2-maybe can bring world 2 to world 1 status) ? World1 is "fenced in" world2 is widespread "new normal". 

-Global population drop by billions (due to illnesses, starvation, "natural" disasters, wars/violence etc). 

DJ-We may have seen something similar in the 14th century Europe with the "plague". But the world has changed that much it is hard to compare. Maybe the conquest of the America's-with up to 90% of the "Indians" getting killed (most by disease or war) also has some resemblance. (Allthough that "proces"started in 1492 and maybe still is going on.)

The best thing to do for now is try to stay as healthy as one can. Have some reserves in money and food/water etc. 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2020 at 2:47am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

Less sea ice in the Arctic=more instability in global weather-also very likely more extremes. This will increase further the already existing food crisis-wich will increase global social unrest-wars for water, food on top of energy wars. 

All that fresh water fed into the Atlantic Conveyor, not to mention polar ice melt, is a recipe for disaster.  It's why I hold the opinion it's too late.  The Atlantic Conveyor which is the engine for all the other jet streams has already slowed down 20% in the last 50 years.  The tipping point has already been reached.  The best we can do is mitigate disaster.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2020 at 11:13pm

WM-In climate change I think it is realistic to claim we only have a choice in worst case scenario's. Methane is speeding up the proces, water vapor as well. I am not an expert but MSM repeating sealevelrise is missing (on purpose) the point. At a certain moment (most likely already behind us) food production will decrease. We have seen "[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature[/url]" in the past [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_temperature_and_health[/url] and may see these cases "explode" soon. Humans overheat in those conditions. 

Sealevelrise is a major risks for some islands, delta's like Bangla Desh etc. and in storms, king-tides, tsunami's increase the risks. But foodproduction and killing heat seem to be the main problems. 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/03/2c-crossed.html[/url] If we go over 3C+ in 2026 we may "not survive". (Others go for Global Average Surface Temperatures-GAST-but the basic point is the same. )

July 1 saw an increase globally of almost 200.000 cases (US 50.000+, Brazil almost 45.000+ tested cases). With this speed we will get to another million in 5,5 days-we will be facing (with increasing speed) 20 million cases somewere in august (at best). [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] 

Covid19 comes on top of-most likely is related to-climate change. It is part of a deadly mega-mix. [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/it-took-more-than-three-months-for.html[/url] With other "side effects" [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/06/locust-situation-update-posh-financial.html[/url] becoming deadly as well. Locusts eating our food, meat production dealing with all kinds of diseases in a.o. pigs and birds. (The Big Wobble has other "developments" as well-when people with some brains dig a little deeper they become alarmists. We-as humans-have been very lucky in many ways most of the 20th century-but in history that was a very abnormal time. Since we have a short lifespan and choose to ignore history we take that very abnormal period-during wich human population exploded-as "normal". That idea is wrong !!!)

I hate to bring messages of despair, dystopia (utopia is the opposite) and-again-I am not an expert, not a scientist-so I hope I am very, very wrong. 

I can put links to ZH like [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/australia-places-300k-under-lockdown-global-cases-near-105-million-live-updates[/url] , [url]https://southfront.org/[/url] and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/[/url] Civil wars, growing tensions etc. on top of the other chaos. But the picture should be clear-we can not survive the way we-as humans-behave that much longer. 

Main-stream-media is "info-tainment"-advertising mixed with "news people want to read". Puppies&kittens-show, mixed with "royalty"and "investment-tips that will get you rich".  We may find ourself on a global titanic with music playing till the water comes...

PS-I did not mention the economic crash....."live now, die later" ..

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2020 at 12:16am

An interview with a medical historian University of Amsterdam [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/historicus-we-hadden-beter-kunnen-weten-met-het-coronavirus~aa9470c6/[/url] via google translate;


Historian: "We should have known better with the coronavirus" We should learn from history how to fight pandemics, says medical historian Manon Parry. “But we don't do that enough. We are far too complacent. ”

The crux of the problem is that we forget, says medical historian Manon Parry. “Again and again and again. We simply do not learn from the past. Sometimes we don't even learn from things that happened two or three months ago. ”

Manon Parry doesn't need a lot of words to explain why a pandemic like the one in Corona could have hit us like this. More than half A year ago, we knew nothing about it, now more than half a million people around the world have died of corona and at least ten million have been infected. But, says Parry: "We should have known."

Raging and rampaging

The British Parry teaches History of Medicine at the Free University of Amsterdam. She focuses in particular on the 19th and 20th centuries. She also spent ten years at the National Library of Medicine in Bethesda, Maryland. More than seven million books, reports, manuscripts and photos about medicine and related sciences are kept there. Those who are seriously interested in viruses, epidemics and pandemics should go there.

In the past, there have been numerous raging and rampant diseases that have afflicted and decimated entire cities, countries and even empires. The Bible and Homer's Iliad already described them. These are not, of course, reports from trained physicians, but health catastrophes have been increasingly detailed over the following centuries.

For example, of the Black Death, which traveled through Europe in the 14th century and the population was reduced by about a third. Or the English sweat disease in the 15th century, which is fatal within 24 hours after infection and affects all of Northern Europe. A smallpox epidemic in Mexico and Central America killed millions of inhabitants in the 16th century. And from a somewhat more recent past we know the Spanish Flu, which strikes among the weakened world population at the end of the First World War. About fifty million people die.

The same behavior
Manon Parry only needs to look at her own area of interest, the last two centuries, to see recurring patterns. “Fast-growing cities, mass migration, wars, climate problems. In general, the more people, the more movements, the more diseases. And again and again, with every epidemic or pandemic, the same behavior returns. Nothing happens at first. Then we say, well, it's not that bad. Dan: it may be bad, but it cannot happen here with us. Then we refuse to put the "pandemic" label on it for a long time. All this gives the virus time to develop and spread, and then it's too late. At least, a lot of time would have been lost. ”

The reactions to the misery caused by the diseases are also the same over time. "Others are to blame. Often minorities or foreigners, but also other countries. Now it's the Chinese, if you listen to the President of the United States. ” The Jews often had to pay for it, but also "witches", rag farmers, traveling merchants or the one who just happened to be at war with the affected country. During a major syphilis epidemic, the Germans spoke of "French disease," the French of "Polish disease," while the Poles spoke of "German disease."

Get a grip

Often we also think we can get something under control if we describe it very closely, says Parry. “Look at AIDS, for example. That was the disease of the four H's for a long time: gays, Haitians, hemophilia patients and heroin addicts. As a result, many other patients have not been detected, which means that a lot of information has been lost. ”

She understands how this all happens. “We are trying to get a grip on something we don't understand. We need to collect as much data as possible, including from the past, and look closely at it. But we don't do that. The fact that colored people are so vulnerable in England, for example, has nothing to do with fate. This is because they are poor and have less access to healthcare. You can do something about that. If you look at it that way, at least. ”

Second wave
Parry is convinced that there will be a second corona wave, and it will be more deadly than the first. It was the same with previous pandemics, she says. “Under great pressure, public places are being reopened, and the economy has to be restarted, sometimes far too quickly. That has happened before and it is also well documented. But history is not taken seriously. We suffer from a kind of biomedical optimism, we think that we can end all diseases, that we will always have a vaccine soon. We are far too complacent. We ignore the simple fact that there will always be diseases. Do you know that there is still no vaccine against the HIV virus? So let's not blind ourselves to the possibility of simple solutions. ”

She does not want to look annoying, she says, because she knows that today's leaders have a great responsibility. “I probably couldn't have done better under these circumstances. But let's start investing more in health care, in nursing staff, in interdisciplinary research. This is complicated, expensive and takes longer, but it is much more effective than, for example, building a new hospital. And let's also move away from blind faith in our own national approach. "Here we do it like this," as if we don't have an international society. "

And for the next time: ,, Please act faster. Especially if people have been warning of a pandemic for ten years. If there is one thing we need to learn from the past, it is not to be complacent. New diseases are emerging and they can appear everywhere. Also here."
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2020 at 10:41pm

DJ-Another Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbfvEKE3vKk[/url]

-statistics, cases rising but number of deaths stay behind. DJ-PP claims number of cases on the rise in India, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Peru, Brazil-due to better treatment (????) number of deaths stay behind. My question than is, is no treatment (for most in those "poor" countries-because we made a choice to keep them poor) better than intubating the west did in april, may ? 

-vaccines, a Pfizer antibody vaccine in two shots gives a person 1.8 to 2.5 the number of antibodies a severe Covid19 infected person has. PP Messenger RNA (MRNA) treatments are new, succesratio (still) is 0%. Reminder the Oxford chimera-study in monkeys first looked promissing but at the end was not effective in monkees). DJ-It is still unclear how long immunity lasts-corona-virusses has been around a long time, most only giving a cold. Immunity there could be months-so if you go for a vaccine on antibodies-basis-you go for several vaccinations per year. PP-Keep your immune system the best you can. Vitamin D is essential. 

-Other vaccine problems; asymptomatic people (test positive but do not get "ill" although they may develop (slowly ?)  lasting lung damage) do have less antibodies-spread a lower rate of virusparts for a longer period (DJ-I did see a study 40% of spread via asymptomatic cases). After 8 weeks 40% of these "asymptomatic cases" have lost antibodies, and even in the more severe cases 13% did lose antibodies in just 8 weeks. Canada CBCreport on China study of 37 cases)

-With antibodies gone in weeks looking at serological data to find out how many people did get infected becomes impossible. DJ-If you want to find out how the virus spread, developed, you can not do that much with antibody tests. (If 40% of asymptomatic cases lose antibodies in 8 weeks-over 80% of those cases will have lost antibodies in 16 weeks ? Even over 26% of more severe cases may have no antibodies left in 16 weeks ? Maybe frozen samples, earlier studies, may give an indication of the "(travel)history of the disease". Knowing a history can tell you some things of the future...but there will be much less data available..)

-PP, how does immunity work ? From min 19, antibodies, T-cells, B-cells etc. part of slow response to infection. Rapid response is via "killer cells" , macrophages etc. They may be at work in the asymptomatic cases-create less/no antibodies.

-Autopsies, direct virus damage in organs is limited-most of the damage is caused by clotting, oxygen not going were it is needed. May also explain some "recovered"patients long lasting (in some cases permanent-DJ-be realistic) health issues. Fatigue, problems with orientation, walking etc. (DJ-Post Viral Syndrom mixed with in sme cases PTSS ?)

-Jacinda Arden PM of New Zealand thanking science-communicators. DJ-We may have to fix stupid-or die...it may be that simple. Covid-parties, anti-science "politics", refusal to wear masks because "it is your body" is killing us all. Stupidity may be the biggest problem in these days. Not climate change, Covid19-but the lack of understanding urgency, the need to act...

-Sorensen Norway-study-90% certain this Covid19 virus is man/lab-made. It is essential to develop a vaccine against not changing parts of this virus. A "natural"virus is not this constant in effectiveness infecting people. (PP also earlier claimed Covid19 came from a lab. DJ-If finding treatments, vaccines has to do with were the virus came from the question if it is lab-made is important.) Small -neutral-countries may be able to go for these kind of "politicized"studies. If the US did outsource dangerous gain-of-function studies to Wuhan and now both the US and China have lots of things to hide something closer to reality may come from other places.

Conclusions; Many countries have a long way to go in dealing with the virus. Herd/group-immunity and anti-body vaccines may only be of very limited use. PP-does not want to start on the FED or July 4 US celebrations....

DJ-Herdimmunity was a basic point in the strategy most countries did choose. If the virus is not a major risk it could be an understandable decission. Low cost-spread the infections-no need to vaccinate. However this virus IS a very major risk. Immunity may be very limited while the health and economic damage is extreme. 

Switching strategy in the middle of a "war" does not go well with most political cultures. It means you have to admit as governments you made a mistake, a wrong choice. But sticking to a bad choice makes matters worse. There is an "alternative" being implemented in a silent way. 

Apps-checking-high tech surveillance is being rolled out. The Big Brother State-already on its way in "the war on terror" is becoming dictatorial in a "war against the virus". Face-recognition, intelligent camera's also checking on human behaviour, were you went. "Smart phone tracking", looking into the sort of contacts, searches people make-leave no room left for privacy. Computers decide on wich person is a risk. China, Israel go for high-tech. It is getting cheaper, with 5G-network it is fast enough. 

Do governments create risks (terrorism, virusses) or let them get out of control to use them for a "Super State"? If Covid19 was lab-made, IS and alquaida are CIA products are "we" the enemy ? Is a "cold war"a facade for crowd control ?  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2020 at 12:33am

DJ-Some other links;

[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493472-covid-second-wave-blame/[/url] and [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493403-pandemic-msm-panic-swine-flu/[/url] DJ-Main Stream Massmedia has fallen into an unhealthy relationship with politics. To get info "journalists" have to make sacrifices-may end up being "embedded". News organizations are not independent-owners of media most of the time do also have political interests. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dr-fauci-warns-mutations-could-make-covid-19-more-infectious[/url] A vaccine in january 2021-DJ Why is politics behaving like we are on the end of a crisis while we may have to deal with this crisis for at least 6 months-on a global scale most likely over a year ? Do consumers have to decide ? By NOT flying, NOT going to restaurants, cinema's do "the majority of the people" have to correct politics ? 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/college-students-busted-throwing-covid-19-parties-infect-all-their-friends[/url] DJ-Stupid people do stupid things, some clever people do stupid things in "a clever way". Do some intelligent people give up hope of finding solutions ? It is easy to condemn these parties-it is better to understand the reason behind those parties. Do communications get the effect you want ? If not improve communications ! (You do not want a police-state like response.)

Yes the economic damage is extrem [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/v-shaped-recovery-covid-kills-46000-jobs-baltimore-downturn[/url] but ignoring the problem makes things worse. That is when leadership comes in. There is no way back to the "old normal"-it is gone, history. So "welcome to a new normal" ! Let start defining that new normal in how we want to deal with risks we have to face in a new normal. The "old normal" created those risks-they may look like the "good old days" but there is a big shadow over those days. 

DJ-[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/while-president-and-would-be-president.html[/url] We are in a mega mix of deadly problems. Lets be honest-most of us may not survive this chaos we created ourselves. But what do we want to preserve ? What can we save ? What is the best we can make as a legacy for those of next generations that may be able to survive ? How do we want to be seen by "others out there" or do we want to "fade away"?

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] july 2-new tested global cases up 208.000 in the US up 57.000 cases, Brazil up 47.000 cases. Soon other countries, India, Bangla Desh, Pakistan will see increases in the same range. Will we be at an average increase of 300.000 cases per day on july 10, 400.000 cpd july 20, 500.00 cpd july 30 ? Is the testing capacity the limit ? In how many countries healthcare already did collapse ? How many Covid19 refugees on their way ? Who will be counting the deaths ? Why is there no international coordination ?  5,7 million cases of the 10,9 million global cases are in the America's.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2020 at 10:19pm

DJ-Some links-not directly corona-linked but "background";

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/m4-6-quake-severely-loosens-hilina-slump-if-land-slides-pacific-wide-tsunami[/url] DJ USGS reported another M4.3 in the same area a few hours ago. If the ground is that instabile there may be a real risk of "some landslides". You do not need a worst case scenario. The amount of ground that could be moving is big. 

A landslide in itself can cause further landslides due to the waves it create. A "seaquake" can start this proces as well. Of course an increase in volcanic activity should not be welcome.

DJ-There are many risks in this world-live always will be a balancing act. From time to time things go wrong-not a major problem in itself but in combination with other problems it may become a huge problem. 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/07/lebanon-at-the-crossroads.html[/url] DJ-Lebanon is not the only country in economic problems. In fact a lot of Latin American countries, (etc) face the same problems. You can chance the name of the actors but the drama may not be that different. US backing an old elite that caused major problems by corruption-Russia-Iran-China see the gap and try to move in. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/america-heading-civil-war[/url] This ZH article is from the viewpoint of a "conservative", but a "progressive" may have been writing something similar. Will the US elections-and outcome-increase further tensions in the US ? Is there a peacefull solution ? One of many problems could be the fall of the US$-causing hyperinflation-just like in Lebanon-maybe even the scheme behind it has similarities. In this corona-age the poor most often get poorer, the rich get richer, the gap widens. 

DJ-Of course "you only start a war when you can profit from it". The US Military Industrial Complex (MIC) has been promoting wars for decades-to make a profit. The US became a global power due to two world wars. You do not become a superpower by being friendly (as the UK, NL, Spain, Rome etc. knows). The MIC has the US in its grips-causing endless wars at the cost of the taxpayer (and international as long as energy deals, international trade is US$ linked). A healthy compromise would see less military spending-in the US-and more on infrastructure, basic healthcare, housing, education. Problem with that view is that for the elite "it is socialism"-and they control the media. Most civilized countries go for that compromise-with governments active in housing, healthcare education. 

Not only Lebanon is at  the crossroads, the US is as well. 

DJ-The US is at war with Iran in Syria and Iraq. In Libya Russia, Egypt and France may come to the aid of Haftar, against Turkey (and Italy-also both NATO members). Syria is preparing to deal with the Turkish forces in northern Syria-most likely under the condition the Kurds accept Assad. (DJ-And when the Kurds accept Assad the Syrian Arab Army may take over the Syria-Turkish border-Turkey has lost its excuse for being in Syria. US forces may have no other choice then to move to Iraq. (The US being in both Syria and Iraq goes against any international law-is a war crime in itself). Again-also the Yemen war did not stop-pushing Saudi Arabia further into bankruptcy while on the other hand Covid19 may be very widespread in Yemen and KSA. We have to see how the US will get out of Afghanistan....it should n't have to be this way. 

Of course in the US-China war it is quiet at the China-Pakistan frontlines with India. US Navy [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-deploys-2-aircraft-carriers-to-south-china-sea-in-show-of-force-towards-beijing/[/url] trying to make a statement in the South China Sea. 

How do politicians react on a major crisis "at home"? Start an even bigger crisis somewere far away. The MIC and rich elite loves wars-that is getting them rich-giving them control over energy (like in the South China Sea). Escalating the US wars with Russia, Iran, China is the US elite's answer to Covid19 and BLM. Only this time it most likely will NOT work. [url]https://southfront.org/nato-2020-a-coalition-of-the-unwilling/[/url]  (DJ-[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/mother-of-all-battles-in-libya-is-close-military-expert/[/url] A Turkish (to put it that way) offensive in eastern Libya may escalate in full blown war in the eastern mediterranean. Egypt will move in-with Russia, France, Greece on its side. In Syria Russia and Assad/Kurdish forces may start kicking out Turkey (ending the Astana talks). Since Qatar is a Turkish ally (with both a major US base and Iranian and Turkish military-in its conflict with KSA) and the UAE is also in conflict with the Saudi's (a.o. in Yemen-US/UK supporting KSA genocide) an escalation is possible on the Arab peninsula as well. (With Iran in an impossible position-good relations with Turkey, as good as in war with Saudi Arabia while Turkey and KSA are allies in many other conflicts. Most likely Iran will go for deals with the UAE/Qatar, Russia and France, Assad-against Turkey. This puts Iran on the side of Israel-against Turkey in the mediterranean oil conflict...and on the side of Greece, Lebanon, Cyprus...) With the US now siding with Erdogan-trying to pull Turkey away from Iran and Russia any major escalation can get out of control. China is a main player in the background-with its New Silk Road plans being destroyed by wars. Also Turkstream would suffer-Russian (and Iran) oil going to the EU via Turkey being sabotaged. A MENA (Middle East-North Africa) war would fit in US plans to control global energy and save the US-petro-$ and try to get a grip on Turkey and Saudi Arabia-but the relationship with Israel would be damaged-Israel then moving to Russia/China....Since Iran also has a role in Pakistan-both share plans for Afghanistan-China/Pakistan facing India serious escalations-usefull as distraction from failing Covid19 policies, economic collapse-one can even think of more worse scenario's. Will the divide in the US be on isolationism or never ending wars ?)  

Most of Europe wants to make deals with Russia, Iran, China-Eur-Asian trade is the future. NATO is divided on almost all issues. The US would like Ukraine to become as good as a NATO member (just like Israel is integrated in NATO eventhough not a member). The Polish elections-round two-may become very important for the EU future. If the catholic conservative extremists-backed by rural Poland-wins Poland will welcome US forces being moved from Germany, will try to stop Northstream1 and 2 Russian-German pipelines, will support Ukraine-extremists. If the Warsaw mayor wins-representing more urban, EU oriented, not that catholic, citizens, Poland may go for the Euro (another blow for the US$) and EU integration. Poland always has been trying to find a way to deal with the fact it is situated between Germany and Russia, going from confrontation to compromise...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] DJ-The number of cases in the US may be at record height, the number of deaths is not (yet). [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-suffers-record-52k-new-covid-19-cases-holiday-weekend-begins-live-updates[/url] Mexico closes its US borders, maybe they indeed will "pay for a wall" ? A rise in cases results in a rise in deaths after 4 to 6 weeks. With the US very poor expensive disfunctioning public healthcare the number of US deaths will be at record high later on this month. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] Top 5 in new cases US,Brazil,India, South Africa, Mexico. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Whats-At-Risk-18-Month-View-of-COVID-19-Risks.jpg?itok=Ex50RZm0[/url] and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-risk-18-month-view-post-covid-world[/url] DJ-If anybody claims he/she can tell you what to expect the coming years at best they are speculating. The now known risks are clear but at present not known uncertainties can make such a difference. In a very welcome optimistic scenario one would find a cheap miracle cure against Covid19-Covid 19 would go away like snow in the sahara. And then what ? The underlying frictions still will be there. Covid19 came on top of it all. 

With the speed Covid19 is developing on january1 2021 we may have 40 to 50 million people infected with Covid19 ? Between 1 and 1.5 million deaths ? Global economies at best performing at 50% ? Wars, polution decreasing because of Covid 19 ? Maybe even some welcome positive effects on climate change ????


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2020 at 6:13am

DJ-Just short; 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] July2 saw an increase of 209,379 cases July3 saw an increase of 209,028 cases-could this be the maximum test capacity ? (No relation left with any real numbers-resulting in more severe cases/deaths in a number of weeks).

From [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ominous-disconnect-what-powell-lagarde-should-have-told-g-7[/url] ;

“The financial system has been on the verge of collapse since September 2019 when we started Repos and QE. And since then it has only got worse. The coronavirus hit us at a time when the banking system was almost down and out. 

We had enough problems saving the banks. But now we must save big corporations, small companies, individuals, local municipalities and states, the Federal State and this on top of rescuing a financial system which is deteriorating by the day. The whole system is leaking like a sieve and we are struggling to keep it all afloat. 

Fortunately we have printing presses and that helps to keep it all going but only just. Our big fear is that the market will realise that all the money we are printing is worthless. And it is of course but we can’t tell anyone. But if the world wakes up to this one day soon, the financial system could implode in a matter of days. And we would be totally helpless to stop it………”

EXPONENTIALLY WORSE THAN 2008 – A BLACK HOLE

And this dear readers is where the world stands today. On the verge of an implosion of the whole financial system. Just a small crack could push the whole system into a black hole. 

All that is needed is a severe second wave of CV-19 or a bank collapse, triggering an implosion of debt markets and the whole system.

-

WEIMAR & ZIMBABWE SQUARED IS COMING

The world’s central banks are now in the process of outshining both Weimar and Zimbabwe. Together with governments they have globally printed and borrowed $18 trillion since CV started. And since the Great Financial crisis started in 2006 they have  more than doubled global debt from $125 trillion to over $275 trillion but that is just the beginning. 

We talk about billions, trillions and quadrillions as if we understood what it means but nobody really does. It is absolutely impossible to fathom what a trillion is. Let’s start by counting to one trillion. It will take you 32,000 years. And then you would have to count very fast, never hesitate nor make a mistake – nor start from the beginning again. Ok, so the $18T just created globally, how long would that take? Almost 600,000 years. 

FED & ECB QE HAS ZERO VALUE

So clearly totally unrealistic and impossible. Whenever this magnitude of money has been manufactured before, like Weimar, it has always been totally worthless. And it is this time too!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2020 at 11:39pm

DJ-When you go for a "wide range approach" of Covid19 and the background/terrain you end up whit lots of stories.

From [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/thousands-of-black-americans-take-up-arms-at-stone-mountain-georgia-july-4-2020[/url] "Black guns matter"demo at the center of kkk , and [url]https://www.rt.com/usa/493727-us-civil-war-2021/[/url] to

[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493732-big-pharma-pandemic-covid/[/url] Science-for-sale, big pharma pushing against low profit effective HCQ to sell their remdesivir with much larger profits eventhough it is not working. (That also most countries in Europe dump HCQ shows how widespread the corruption is). 

In foreign policy [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-moves-seize-iran-petroleum-new-tanker-group-bound-venezuela[/url] DJ Several countries are willing to sell oil to Venezuela-with a sharp drop in demand they are happy to get some money for their oil. [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493718-uk-maduro-venezuela-gold/[/url] George Galloway is correct when he claims the UK is stealing a billion$ worth of gold from Venezuela. 

Countries that see Covid19 getting out of control turn out also to be the countries that do not accept international laws. The US, UK, Brazil are criminal run states. White collar crime has become a standard for "clever bussiness" creating poverty for most to enrich a few. [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493465-coronavirus-lockdown-rich-poor/[/url] 

DJ-This mechanism, with big media  [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493487-mr-jones-movie-press/[/url] under control of the criminal elite-keeping the masses stupid and uninformed-creating an "age of stupidity" eventhough internet could be the largest ever information source. Greed and stupidity are killing us all. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] When you go to cases per million-click on the arrow-you get cases per million. One percent of 1 million is 10.000. In this list you also find "states" like Andorra, Vatican City or San Marino-I choose to ignore mini-states. In Qatar 3,5% of the population test positive for Covid19, countries like Bahrain, another Gulf State and French Guiana-north of Brasil-get to 1,6% of their populatin testing positive. Chile 1,5, Kuwait 1,1 the USA is the first large country with almost 0,9% of the population testing positive for Covid 19. Sweden is at position #18 as the first bigger European country with 0,7%. 

(Latin) American and Gulf States are overrepresented. Of course there is a testing issue-not all tests are very good-some countries are verry active in testing. But these two "regions" jump out. Former Soviet Union States are a third region with lots of cases per million. 

There is NO international strategy to deal with Covid19 by governments. The strategy that therefor can dominate is big pharma going for more profits. Countries like Pakistan, India, Bangla Desh most likely have a very high number of cases per million that will not get tested. Same goes for failed states like Yemen, Somalia or "poor countries" in Africa, Haïti. If even in the US Covid19 is out of control than wath to expect from "the developing world" kept poor by the rich countries ? 

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/locust-swarm-reaches-nepal-east-african.html[/url] DJ-I will not be surprised to see locusts reaching Europe or even the America's (if Saharan dust is already a problem in the southern USA). 

Iran [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/the-plagues-of-iran-2020-is-hot-headed.html[/url] and [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/the-plagues-of-iran-2020-update-under.html[/url] The US want to control all the global energy in the world. Countries that do not cooperate are "criminal" so Russia, Iran, Venezuela now are the criminals-Iraq, Libya had that status earlier. Witholding even medical supplies reaching these countries is an act of inhumanity....

And yes [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/in-case-you-mist-it-incredible-amounts.html[/url] Japan, China also facing serious flooding...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2020 at 12:42am

Your reference to Worldmeters raises a question of what is the best metric:  Cases / million or Deaths / million?

I find I am having to use both to see what happens within a geographical region.  This clearly shows 'failed states' like Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Venezuela, by their lack of testing.    Although the surprise among countries with civil war is that Somalia is reporting higher figures than most of the other Eastern African countries.

The Arab Peninsular is interesting in that there is a wide range of testing positive ranging from 0.5% in UAE to 3.5% in Qatar. However, the number of deaths is more similar; ranging from 33 / million in UAE to 85 / million in Kuwait.  [The above ranges ignore Yemen with 0.01% cases and 11 deaths / million, as the civil war and collapsing health care system means proper testing can not be done].   It looks like in this region the death rate seems to be the more accurate statistic (and it indicates the UAE may be under reporting when compared to neighbouring countries).


For other parts of the world it seems that death rates are being suppressed and so case rates might be a better indicator (a lot of Eastern Europe and Russia seem to be in this category).  


It is hard to get a good picture when there are so many questions about the data, but we have to work from the data we have.   In this case it is kudos to WHO to get so many countries to publish data on a daily basis.  It is down in the nitty-gritty that I have respect for WHO and the solid work it does (I have less respect for the leadership which seem to me to follow political leadings rather than health leadings for major decisions).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2020 at 2:33am

EdwinSM-"Rich countries" keep ICU-cases "longer alive". They often have better technology/medication than poor countries-with low access to healthcare have. I think underreporting is a global problem-most due to under testing. 

Of course another question is what information are you looking for. The statistics available provide at least some insight on how widespread infections are. Death is an outcome. Recovery is even more "open" with many people having only light symptoms to start with-on the other sise people ending up with chronic healthissues. 

We are in the middle of the worst global healthcrisis our world may have ever seen. The Spanish Flu severity was realized after the flu had gone. 

Given the underreporting in statistics more realistic numbers could be between 2 to 10 times the tested cases. Spread in "poor countries" made the shift more likely going to 10 times tested cases. Access deaths numbers may bring more realism but also will give false impressions (less traffic accidents, lower spread of other diseases during lockdowns etc.) A lot of countries do not have good statistics here as well. 

Here in NL a lot of people that would have visited a GP under normal circumstances still fail to do so. This may increase severe cases of hearthdisease, cancers etc. that now go undetected. In a lot of other countries health care is that overstretched only very urgent cases may get some attention. Health Care itself is at risk. HCW-ers will do their best not to get infected, do their job the best they can-still with cases exploding HCW-ers will get infected, "burn-out" or break down. 

The only working solution is social distancing the best you can-but to keep a basic economy (and with that Health Care) working you need a compromise. 

There are some estimates about 50% of the global workforce may be without a job soon. QE-creating money out of thin air-should be used to provide a basic income, keep those people of the street-spreading the virus. Even that is not done....

Another major statistic missing is age distribution. On this forum there are some reports of children spreading the virus, an increase  of cases in younger age groups. A new explosion of cases in Catalunya-not far from Barcelona-is alarming because Spain already did have a serious wave-is this a new form of the virus ? 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1eUvnbvCmg[/url]  Dr. John Campbell, UK-Leicester cases imported from Pakistan ? (Pubs reopening is a stupid decission-cases will explode again).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2020 at 10:51pm

DJ-Global Covid19 situation is bad;

[url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-06/victoria-nsw-border-to-close-over-coronavirus-fears/12424686[/url] First time since the Spanish Flu. Further lockdowns a.o. in NW Spain. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] New top 3 in cases US-Brazil-India. Looking at cases per million in this list US is at place 13, Brazil 16 and India 114 (with its 1380 million + inhabitants). In the cases per million Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait jump out-lots of foreign workers from Pakistan, India, Bangla Desh.

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/07/06/netherlands-underestimated-coronavirus-outbreak-management-expert[/url] Most likely another 2 minkfarms did see Covid19 infections-something like 20 of the 140 farms now had infections-our government is "evaluating" (DJ-Minkfarms are a danger to public health-in less than two months 20 of the 140 farms did see infections-"jumped from human to mink" as the official explanation-do 70 of the 140 farms need to be infected before closure is ordered ?)[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/07/hundreds-demonstrate-against-covid-19-measures-in-amsterdam/[/url]

Some ZH-links [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/california-enters-deadly-wildfire-season-over-half-inmate-firefighters-under-covid[/url]

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-texas-governor-abbotts-face-mask-order-not-what-it-seems[/url] (another P&P claiming face masks go against "freedom"-insanity-this madness is a global problem)

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/central-banks-contributing-inequality-low-income-households-experience-greater-covid[/url] 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/world-suffers-record-daily-jump-new-covid-19-cases-july-4th-live-updates[/url];

Summary:

  • Texas sees record jump in hospitalizations
  • California reports jump in daily cases
  • Taj Mahal closed until further notice
  • India draws nearer to Russia amid another record jump in cases
  • World sees record jump in COVID-19 cases
  • Florida reports 9,999 new cases
  • Arizona sees roughlt 3,500 new cases
  • South Africa sees record jump in new cases
  • US reports 53k cases for Sunday
  • WHO cancels hydroxychloroquine trials
  • Russia cases near 700k
  • Japan sees another 277 new cases
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2020 at 10:56pm

DJ-If one looks at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] one may get a positive feeling about trends-both number of new cases (a few days ago over 200.000) and deaths (over 5000) have decreased. In the US the CDC [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/covid-19-close-losing-its-epidemic-status-us-according-cdc[/url] claims the US Covid19 epidemic is over...of course statistics can be a great way to lie. 

[url]https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-cases-rise-2-atlanta-221325077.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACm5D73A4tUEqry4ssSaESCC0KWe52E_goVcV0mA8j4nM0TzB8jxoRvTu6u-Kcz6tB7GjNWiauJs9WPGp6v5lYqXCImLF2q8zBJOpvrfJrvSAy_b_4ZcweROpZpI33ew_WBuQzvb94NDReyjuc30vwMuJLeNG9ehkL5UAgMr08Bx[/url] (DJ-Why such a long link ????)

In Brazil Bolsenaro shows Covid19 symptoms-including fever. He has been doing his best to catch the virus-maybe (like bo-jo-in the UK) this illness will mean a more realistic approach of Covid19 in Brazil. On a global scale I would still go for "out of control" as the best description. A global response is missing, NPI/lock downs does not work in poor circumstances-no income=no food=spread of virus. 

Some parts of Europe (mostly by luck-result of soom good steps that will be undone soon by reopenings), China, New Zealand, Iceland, Greenland are doing "good". In the US hospital care may collapse in some states. "Under the radar"spread in poor area's-no testing-is becoming catastrophic, we may soon see massive Covid19 refugees. 

As bad as it is-this is not realy "news"-it has been a trend for some time. 

"New"is [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_flu_pandemic[/url] looking at this as a possibly earlier "Covid 1889"outbreak. Also [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-06/COVID-19-may-not-have-originated-in-China-existed-for-many-decades-RTIDkoNz68/index.html[/url] China welcomes the UK-Oxford scientist view Covid19 may have been around for a longer time-exploding above a certain treshold in the best-for-the-virus condition. Closer to "escaped from a Wuhan-lab" comes [url]https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/seven-year-covid-trail-revealed-l5vxt7jqp[/url].. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_229E#Signs_and_symptoms[/url], [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_NL63[/url] etc. may indicate a major CoViD-outbreak was just waiting to happen-no need for any lab. Historical data may have been wrong in calling outbreaks "flu" while sometimes the virus may have been a corona-virus. (DJ-Most flu-like outbreaks in the past hundreds of years may have had a flu-virus as a cause-but not all. Flu-virus samples go back to 1880-not much longer-and were found in survivors of those outbreaks in the 50's-so we may have limited info.)

Of course the economic impact of Covid19-moving into the second half of 2020-will be major. A "good thing" may be stopping/slowing down wars. 

Some other illnesses; [url]https://southfront.org/july-2020s-contender-enters-the-ring-china-reports-case-of-bubonic-plague-in-inner-mongolia/[/url], [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/addition-everything-else-now-bunny-ebola-spreading-rapidly-across-us[/url] and [url]https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117[/url] "pig-flu"

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mMd6D1Gw1g[/url] Ennio Morricone has reached his finale-"once upon a time"


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 07 2020 at 10:40pm

DJ-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] July 7 over 208.000 new cases, over 5500 new covid deaths, US, Brazil, Mezico and India all report large numbers-today we will pass the 12 million tested cases-outlook bad. In my opinion the places not yet seeing new cases/outbreaks only will have a short pause. 

Peak Prosperity; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1plkwhi5KUE[/url]

-week averages going up both in cases and deaths

-Fauci warning for mutation D614G makes spread easier (PP/CM discussed this mutation may 5) was widespread in Italy

-Airborne virus-PP reported on that back in february....

-PP/CM goes against "media" defending WHO (CDC/RIVM) failures, the anti HCQ "press" that is killing people around the globe. (DJ-NYTimes, CNN-by misinformation for political reasons during a pandemic are killing thousends of people. On purpose spreading false info, going for big-pharma agendas-can mean people not getting the right working treatments in time overloading healthcare causing even more suffering.)

-HCQ works (with zinc) (DJ-most countries do not have other options) HCQ best in the early stages-because it stops the virus spreading in the body. This latest report (without zinc) still showed 50% less deaths in hospital cases.

-From min 29, the 2015 Robert Baric gain of function study of the SARS virus showed the potence for new developments-A.o. Zinc and HCQ would help. Anti body/vaccine treatments did not look very hopefull in 2015 (PP-Why are they now silent ????)

-From min 33 major 61.000 people Spanish study on antibodies. Madrid had over 14%-lots of rural regions <5% (far from herd immunity) About 90% of infected people deal with the virus with antibodies, 10% with T-cells. Over 10% of HCW-ers had antibodies. Do young people fight infection more with T-cells and spread the virus longer without getting ill themselves ???? Maybe the 5% richest do have a bit higher chance of infection (average all incomes about 5%-rich 6% DJ-They most likely do "socialize" more, more travel etc.)

-(DJ-Under the youtube-link PP has a lot of info/links) coclusions; best chances for not catching the virus in rural area's, city is major risk. Coming thursday PP/CM will report on Covid re-infections. Antibodies do not last very long. HCQ, Zinc work Azithromicin also effective-but big pharma puts profits over people (DJ-Just like the WHO, Lancet, NEMJ, "science for sale", "embedded press" etc-greed is killing us all)

DJ-I try to get info from a lot of sources, good info may be difficult. One source is Zero Hedge. Some of the news-for a long time-has been denial of climate change now denial of Covid 19-lock downs do more damage etc. 

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crunch-time-arrives-and-was-everyone-wrong-about-coronavirus[/url] DJ Some good info (comparing Spanish Flu with Covid 19) but wrong conclusion-article claims lock downs do more damage than Covid 19. In my opinion;

1-There are still a lot of "working"people infected with Covid 19, 2-Recovery often means chronic illness, 3-You can ask from a society to take some steps to protect the over 65 ! (Is <65 y/o rights to go on vacation, restaurant, fly around the globe worth locking up 65+ y/o for the rest of their lives ?) 

Yes-economy is a big matter. But is it not time to say over consumption is doing to much damage ? Should we not reform society so ALL have access to healthcare, education, housing ? Is working/learning from home always worse than traffic jams ? 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/deep-european-recession-forecast-2020[/url] DJ-Yes we will have to take a few steps backward-but by doing so we may survive !

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-inks-military-deal-iran-under-secretive-25-year-plan[/url] and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/luongo-russias-political-stability-ensured-while-west-sinks[/url] DJ-This pandemic is man-made. I do have my doubts on if it was lab-made (history may indicate otherwise. If the 1889-95 Russian Flu was a CoViD-outbreak you do not need a lab). By inaction, false information, big pharma going for profits, tourism-spreading the virus "we" did everything we could to make this virus a pandemic in january, february. "We"did have more than enough info (maybe not all) to take much more steps to stop the spread of the virus back then. But "we" did not. Worse-by reopening to soon we repeated the proces. 

DJ-Russia, Iran are in the top 10 of hard hit countries. But there is some public healthcare, a will to go for lock downs. Countries like the US, Brazil, UK tended to deny any problem now face a major crisis. 

DJ-This puts me at an old "cold war point of discussion". What is "freedom"worth when it does not provide food ? Here in Europe-and lots of other places-there is a balancing act between "freedom" and government. Public healthcare, housing, schools in stead of all those only for the "free"rich. A lot of western countries need re-balancing.

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/un-investigation-finds-us-killing-soleimani-unlawful-no-evidence-imminent-threat[/url] DJ-The US/Israel war on Iran [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-issues-first-statement-about-alleged-israeli-attack-on-nuclear-facility/[/url], [url]https://southfront.org/iran-built-extensive-underground-missile-complexes-along-its-southern-coast/[/url] and [url]https://southfront.org/large-fire-breaks-out-at-venezuelan-refinery-at-which-iranian-experts-are-working/[/url] may escalate. 

Iran is essential for China's New Silk Road-East-West connection, Russia's North-South link with the Indian Ocean. Iran now doing a lot of work for (China's interests in) Venezuela. (And further China plans for investments/deals in Latin America)

DJ-My impression, Saudi Arabia is not longer able/willing to be in the frontlines against Iran. Needs to do bussiness with Russia (railways), China, India. India has its conflicts with both Pakistan and China AND with the Islamic world-Mohdi does realize war would be bad for India. Europe does want de-escalation and a Asia market share. Leaves the US only Israel as a long term ally against Iran. (And Israel also does want good relations with China, Russia-over 20% of Israeli's have Russian roots). 

The wars in Syria, Libya are confrontations between the US and Russia, China. Iran is "usefull" for China but also going for Iran its own interests. There is also a powerstruggle on wich country is "leading" the Islamic world. Saudi Arabia may have Mecca, Turkey and Iran try to get more control in the world of Islam. (In population Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Malaysia are the major Islam countries outside the Middle East). 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 08 2020 at 1:55pm

DJ-A good Moon-of-Alabama article [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/07/the-us-surrendered-to-the-pandemic-protect-yourself.html[/url].. The US moving to a 100.000 new cases per day, 1000 deaths per day-Trump would like to act as if this is a new normal. His chances for re-election become smaller with this kind of massive numbers. MoA advice for those in the US wear a mask, avoid the crowd (and PP-plant a (roof-DJ ?) garden.)

DJ-A lot of countries face horror numbers, Mexico, India, Peru, Russia, Brazil, KSA....MoA expects the virus also will be with us in 2021...

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-tops-3-million-covid-19-cases-icus-florida-texas-hit-max-capacity-live-updates[/url]

DJ-Economic consequences [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/american-economy-four-words-neofeudal-extortion-decline-collapse[/url], [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/53-restaurants-closed-during-covid-lockdown-have-shuttered-permanently-yelp-data[/url], [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/united-airlines-sinks-after-warning-36000-jobs-risk[/url]

DJ-Many countries face increasing social instability-with governments moving towards authoritarian rules. 

Hal Turner claims Iran is preparing an attack on Israel (behind a paywall-the article-maybe also the attack....) after former min-of-defense admits Israel was behind recent explosions at a.o. nuclear facilities in Iran. [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-vows-to-strengthen-syrias-air-defenses-in-new-military-cooperation-deal/[/url] and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iran-denies-reports-about-new-attack-on-nuclear-facility/[/url] and [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/another-explosion-in-iran-at-a-factory-in-tehran-kills-two-report/[/url], [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israel-behind-blast-at-irans-natanz-enrichment-center-report/[/url] (DJ-Most countries may now be hit that hard by Covid 19 they would like to avoid a war. Iran has been under US/Israel attacks-it may react. 

NW Europe may welcome remnants of TS Eduoardo, the US may see "Fay" [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/tropical-storm-developing-off-south-carolina-new-jersey-nyc-could-get-a-blast[/url] this Friday


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 08 2020 at 2:34pm

Here on the Virginia Coast where I live, not worried about Fay at all.  

We are very used to Tropical storms and nor'easters.
Even a Cat 1 hurricane would not cause me to leave.
It's the really big ones that are scary.

Still, we have the North Carolina coast and the barrier islands there to somewhat protect us as they have for centuries.

'When you feel as though you can't do something, the simple antidote is action: Begin doing it. Start the process, even if it's just a simple step, and don't stop at the beginning.'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 08 2020 at 10:46pm

Tabitha111, last years tropical storms did bring not only a lot of rain but from time to time a lot of surprises. Exploding from "invest" low pressure area's into strong hurricane in 24/48 hrs. Fay could move towards New York, New Jersey and further follow the coastline towards Canada, Greenland pumping lots of Atlantic Ocean water-via extreme rain-on land. [url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/[/url] and [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/the-deluge-continues-incredible-amounts.html[/url] During Covid19 evacuations may be another spread event. 

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjuaPuiqYnA[/url] on aerosol spread of Covid19. Just like PP he has been warning for this kind of spread since february-cruise ships-march-explosions of cases. Still the WHO, CDC (Dutch RIVM) choose to claim it is a minor problem. Looking at...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] one only can say the WHO is wrong again. More than 50% of all cases now in the America's (with 1/7 of the global population). Africa, Middle East may have low numbers due to not testing. The US close to 62.000 new cases in one day-trend is increasing worldwide on cases and deaths. Even when governments go "save the economy" consumers go "save their lives" the best they can. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/qatar-selling-worlds-largest-private-jet-recession-bites[/url], [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/california-utterly-failing-2-million-residents-wait-unemployment-checks[/url] The economic damage soon will be getting very clear worldwide. Governments are pushing for an "old normal" while they should be searching for a "new normal". Elections may be helpfull to bring a new way of government able to deal with a new way of thinking. 

Russia and Iran working closer together in Syria. [url]https://southfront.org/in-video-syrian-army-once-again-blocked-us-military-convoy-near-tell-tamr/[/url].. [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/venezuelan-warplanes-shoot-down-unknown-aircraft-with-us-registration-number/[/url].. Also Venezuela (with Iran, China, Russia, Cuba aid) not accepting more US agression. 

Iran did not yet react to Israels sabotage actions in Iran. The US did not yet attack Iran oil export to Venezuela. But Iran will react.

[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/entire-israeli-military-unit-in-quarantine-amid-suspicion-of-coronavirus-outbreak/[/url] The impact covid19 has on the military most often is kept secret. Keeping the corona virus out of ships, barracks etc must be a major job. Sending troops around the globe could be a fasr way of spreading disease-not all countries may welcome that. The US may face a problem with changing forces in the middle east. Welcome to leave-new US forces not welcome...

Global tourism may become a thing of the past very soon. Some people are willing to travel to more exotic destinations-most will not. A lot of hotels, tourist infra structure can be gone in 2021. A lot of air lines, travel companies will need to reorganize. I did want to believe there were some benifits in tourism to "poor countries". Rich people being confronted with poverty, spending money...most of it ending up with other rich people. The bad side of global tourism-spreading diseases even more (of course prostitution, exploitation, slavery was also part of the "tourist industry") while tourists are not allowed to go outside the tourist parts makes me believe the end of this kind of poluting global tourism is welcome. 

Some other news [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/nepal-parliament-approves-new-map-india-rejects-land-claims.14141/[/url] and [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/china-claims-russian-port-of-vladivostok-as-part-of-their-historical-territory.14171/[/url]  and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Vladivostok[/url]

DJ-The Russian-China strategic partnership is the basis for their plans for a multi-polar world order-putting the US aside. This does not mean there are no problems between Russia and China. For population, agriculture, economy China is "interested" in what "Eastern Russia" can mean for China. The present borders are the outcome of decissions made in 1858, 1860 (and earlier see [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_of_Nerchinsk[/url] ) and may "need redifining". One way to do so in a constructive manner would be some form of union. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Independent_States[/url] or [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanghai_Cooperation_Organisation[/url], [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurasian_Economic_Union[/url] China's New Silk Road plans go further than infrastructure and trade. Both in Asia and Africa some did see the EU as an example for cooperation. (DJ-A possible scenario for Russia/China could be Russian cities in "East Russia" inhabited by Chinese citizens-mostly working for the Chinese economy. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2020 at 2:13am

DJ - You mentioned that Global Tourism might be a thing of the past.    

It will change without a doubt, but is seems that from what I have read over the past few days (sorry links are gone) places as far apart as Bali and Ibiza are trying to move the tourism up-market (ie fewer people who are prepared to spend more).    This might also become reality as economic problems hit, so the average worker could not afford trips to distant places (or the cost of quarantine).  So tourism might go back to being something for the rich.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2020 at 4:01am

EdwinSM-I did read somewere 80% of the flights being made by less than 10% of the population. A group of rich people always had many choices to spent their money. Bali and Ibiza will do all they can to keep some form of tourism going-it is their economy. Competition to offer "housing for the rich" will increase worldwide. 

Of course this is a big scandal-tax the rich-do not comfort them !

[url]https://www.oxfam.org/en/world-brink-hunger-pandemic-coronavirus-threatens-push-millions-starvation[/url] Oxfam is warning this corona-crisis may bring 12.000 people per day to starvation soon. Income inequality is killing millions of people per year-corona made things worse. Most will not be able to get even tested-forget about treatment. Inequality is one of the many reasons Covid19 is out of control.

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/ball-of-confusion-why-do-nearly-all.html[/url]

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2020 at 10:41pm

DJ-The thing I like most of this forum is that it is open for serious news-not a popularity-forum. There you can get "out voted" by bringing an opinion most people do not want to hear. I did get banned once from Dutch "nu-jij" forum that way....censorship, media-control is getting a big problem on the internet. With also Peak Prosperity at risk at you tube. (Of course if you followed Dutchsinse-trying to predict earthquakes you tube "killed" him. "You Tube loves kittens and puppies but hates reality".

I also follow [url]https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva[/url]-still not kicked of the internet. His views do look a bit extreme from time to time-in my eyes-but the way "the world" is dealing with Covid19 makes me believe he may have a very grimm point. Climate change is welcomed by the rich elite-the main reason, cause of that climate change also making trillions out of it. If that is killing billions of poor-fine. Our "civilization" does not give a thing for human rights. A capitalist-systeem is based on greed-nothing else. 

Almost a 100 years ago most of the world welcomed, supported hitler and his nazi-thugs against Stalin and the communists. In 1933 Dachau concentration camp was opened-communists, socialist were send there. The world knew-and welcomed it. In recent history other thugs, following the wahabist/salafist ideology of Gulf States-alquaeida, IS did get full western support. IS is now spread over Africa, Asia, Europe. In Ukraine IS is fighting next to the neo-nazi Azov brigade filled with western nazi-scum. NATO is supplying them-like IS with weapons, info etc. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] Looking at the statistics-a poor reflection of reality-record breaking new cases. In the "tax the rich" versus "kill the poor" the rich are winning. The way "the world" is dealing with Covid19 is more and more looking like a genocide. (I did see the news of Kazakstan (not China-they reported it) of a "new pneumonia"-no doubt Covid related). Oxfam warned of the foodcrisis unfolding-12.000 people starving per day within a few months due to a.o. the coronacrisis. 

Often no job means no income means no food means no live...but it was just only one of many news items...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2020 at 10:43pm

Peak Prosperity-yes you can get Covid twice [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhyEBIpaIaM[/url]

-statistics, numbers going up in cases and deaths. We know how to control it-we just do not do it. India-using HCQ is seeing less deaths. 

-First stories of reinfections february Japan 40y/o woman, april 50 Korean's. DJ-The cold-corona-virus immunity does not last long-so hopes for Covid19-corona-virus immunity were at best based on "hope". (The choice to go for herd immunity was an economic and political decission based-in fact-like most $ and € on thin air-nothing)

Chris Martenson interviews Adam-his wife Cheri (41) did get the infection twice. Basics-they were on their own. Doctors-often without masks-could not agree on treatment, treated his wife like a mental case-in Arizona-with cases exploding. The male and two children most likely also were infected but only had mild/no symptoms. Covid-immunity last-at best-3 months a doctor told them.

Their questions are how to go on ? They already lived in a bubble-still did get infected. Adam his advice is to prepare at home-MATH protocol (DJ-I would have to look for that) oxygen-needs etc. 

(DJ-This is just one story of a well organized household most likely well educated people with some basic medical knowledge. No health complications-over 50% of the US population does have those..) Second case was worse than first-no gains of some sort of immunity..

DJ-Some of the symptoms described remind me of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweating_sickness[/url] hantavirus ? (Or maybe also a corona-virus showing up in the 15/16th century UK and later on Europe)

-Brain issue inthe UK over 40 cases had neurological issues as main complaint [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guillain%E2%80%93Barr%C3%A9_syndrome[/url] like. (Makes me think of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronic_fatigue_syndrome[/url] related to a corona-infection ? Maybe indirect due to auto-immune overreaction ?)

-Nature-we are 6 months now in this pandemic the way out PP=herd immunity or vaccines-both may nor be working. One question is why do some people get infected that much worse than others. Iceland/Reykjavik loking into gene variations. 

-Immunity. Some SARS patients still had antibodies in their blood after 12 years. Others-after SARS-2/Covid 19 did lose antibodies within a few weeks...

-The American Lung Association; over 200 virusses can give you a cold. Children may get a cold 6 to 8 times a year adults 2-4 times a year most  in winter (DJ-Would a co-infection with some cold virus, or other, explain the difference in outcome. Does being healthy help or worsens the (over)reaction of the immune system ?)

-PP conclusions; (some) people may get infected more often with Covid19 (forms). Herd immunity is far away. Maybe some vaccination may offer some hope otherwise we "may have to live with Covid19". On the PP website CM will write a piece on the economic side of this pandemic.

DJ-PP/CM keeps putting claims Covid19 came from a lab. Looking at medical history (the Plague, Spanish Flu to other more severe corona-outbreaks in humans-SARS, MERS and other small severe human covid-infections) the disease itself can not tell if it came from a lab. It may be-virologists may have something to hide in their gain-of-function-going wrong-studies. Just like with nuclear power plants in bio-labs accidents happen. Those accidents do have a global impact. For now we have NO control over the global outbreak. NPI may have been usefull-still do a thing in some rich countries. In "poor countries" they do not work-the choice is simple-go out get an income, maybe infection or stay at home and starve-no food. 

A serious international approach is still missing, perspective (US out of WHO) is only getting worse. Maybe China (with some other countries) can make a difference by a "global health initiative" but (also) at a certain cost. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/top-communist-party-official-china-us-headed-complete-economic-decoupling[/url] ;

Zhou says Chinese must prepare:

  1. For the deterioration of Sino-U.S. relations and the full escalation of the struggle.
  2. To cope with shrinking external demand and a disruption of supply chains.
  3. For a new normal of coexisting with the novel coronavirus pandemic over the long term.
  4. To leave the dollar hegemony and gradually realize the decoupling of the yuan from the dollar.
  5. For the outbreak of a global food crisis.
  6. For a resurgence of international terrorism.

Zhou does not shy from painting a grim picture of the Chinese economy, and his wording clearly differs from that of official documents prepared by government bureaucrats.

Will this become an "end-of-life-event" (ELE)-maybe as part of climate change it will...it should not be that way...Most new cases/deaths never did see any testing at all. Mortality in Latin America, Africa, South Asia, people without papers "illegal" in many countries will go in mass graves...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 10 2020 at 2:43am

Climate change/weather; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/tropical-storm-warning-for-new-jersey-nyc-long-island[/url] , [url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/[/url] Tropical storm "Fay" will move over New York-New England-Canada-Greenland (and end up somewere over Europe next week). Main risk is rain. 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/07/global-warming-and-ice-sheet-melting-portents-of-a-younger-dryas-like-stadial-event.html[/url]

War [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-four-explosions-west-of-tehran-iran-missile-defenses-activated[/url], [url]https://southfront.org/wave-of-explosions-and-fires-at-critical-infrastructure-objects-hits-iran-sabotage-or-accidents/[/url] and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/powerful-blast-hits-western-tehran-as-iran-witnesses-more-mysterious-explosions/[/url] , [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/iranian-fm-warns-severe-repercussions-await-perpetrators-nuclear-facility-blast/[/url]

DJ-Iran is preparing for war. Most likely a war with Israel and an indirect war with the US. [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/washington-feared-an-iranian-attack-in-the-us-after-soleimanis-assassination-magazine/[/url]

Egypt and Turkey continu preparation for war over Libya [url]https://southfront.org/egypt-sends-warning-to-turkey-by-launching-drills-near-libya-map-update/[/url]

DJ-It is not clear for me how Iran-Turkish relations will move in case of conflict with Israel-they both have a conflict with Israel but may have a different view on Libya. In Qatar Turkish and Iran forces work close to the main US airbase for the Middle East. Only a miracle can stop a major war exploding-involving also Iraq, Syria and most likely Lebanon. Jordan may not want to be a part of it-but Israeli plans for annexation of the West Bank mean war with Jordan (and may be going to far for most Arab States).

And of course the US AND China having drills in the South China Sea....

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/a-frightening-new-outbreak-of-viral.html[/url] Kazakhstan pneumonia-most likely Covid19


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 10 2020 at 7:48am

Quote from above - "The American Lung Association; over 200 virusses can give you a cold. Children may get a cold 6 to 8 times a year adults 2-4 times a year most  in winter (DJ-Would a co-infection with some cold virus, or other, explain the difference in outcome. Does being healthy help or worsens the (over)reaction of the immune system ?) "


I would constantly get one cold after another when I was in a relationship with an ex-boyfriend who had custody of his two very young (toddler) children every other weekend.

My son was in University at the time and also I had homeschooled him, so I wasn't exposed to many of the colds kids can bring home from school or day care until this.

When we broke it off, I didn't have a single cold for almost two years. It wasn't until I went back to part time work with the public (I am retired from the Navy, but missed working somewhat) that I succumbed again. I used to have customers (I worked in a big box store- but as an independent contractor) come up to me telling me all about how "sick they were the night before" and how "their stomach still hurt" ughhh...or just cough in my face!



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 10 2020 at 8:15am

DJ- posting this here so you will be sure to see it...
I also shared your story of the nurse from NL on another forum I frequent.
the responses were very well received...most said it was a "must read" and one had shared it with her mother here in the US who was from Holland.
Thanks again for all your interesting posts.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 10 2020 at 10:10pm

Tabitha111, sharing info and social distancing is the best most of us can do....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_event[/url] and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction[/url] The sixth mass extinction is man made-here, now....

DJ-Three major ways of "killing ourselves"; 1=climate change, 2=war, 3=health issues

Since this forum is focussed on the 3rd item most a few links on "health";

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/07/the-pandemic-reveals-the-real-disease-of-our-societies.html[/url] In the US "blacks do not vote for trump"-their lives do not matter for a corrupt elite. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/lancetgate-scientific-corona-lies-big-pharma-corruption-hydroxychloroquine-versus[/url] That elite is making money out of killing people-from fossil fuels, weapons to medication-for-profit. 

PS-Of course with falling oil prices and a lot of migrant workers from Pakistan, Bangla Desh waiting for their salaries to be paid one explanation for the high death rates in the Gulf States can be found easy....(it is the migrant workers dying).

Looking at the latest numbers from [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] the only "good news" is outcome-ratio in deaths is decreasing to 7%. Although the main reason for that statistic most likely is based on much more testing so also including "light" cases-recovery more likely. On a global scale the increase in testing does not go wide enough, fast enough to include most new cases. In "poor" countries most people will not see a test-often they just die. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BG5pEDKbQv0[/url] MedCram with good info in 10 minutes

"Statistics is a great way to lie" [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_to_Lie_with_Statistics[/url] In a pandemic statistics at best give some indications-but with the spread in "poor countries" these statistics get out of touch with reality at most places. Still looking at cases and deaths per million the US is showing being "exceptional".  The US is moving towards the top of both lists very fast. A recent warning for 100.000 new cases per day is getting awfully realistic with july 10 an increase of over 70.000 US cases. 

Of course the US east coast is now seeing TS Fay [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWiaztNYCDQ[/url] and [url]https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/10/weather/tropical-storm-fay-forecast/index.html[/url] (As always good info from [url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/07/09/tropical-storm-fay-forms-will-bring-heavy-rains-to-mid-atlantic-and-new-england-friday-saturday/[/url]) Of course the heatwave [url]https://www.cbsnews.com/news/heat-wave-across-united-states-multiple-weeks/[/url] should get more attention-with temperatures of over 50C/120F in some parts of the US-SW. Invest95A moving into Pakistan [url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/[/url] 

Climate change is the underlying factor in both health issues and wars-for-water and food. Climate change is already killing thousends of people per day-direct or indirect. From starvation foodcrisis due to locusts, to wars in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and healthissues from heatstrokes to Covid19. 

Climate change is the big killer-wars can kill faster-destroy our planet in a matter of less than 1 hour. Covid19 is killing the poor around the globe-and "the rich" are not very serious in dealing with it. 

Wars-[url]https://www.rt.com/news/494350-nuclear-confrontation-us-global-domination/[/url] The US wants to stay #1. If that is "at all costs" the costs will get very high. 

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/annexations-are-not-illegal-netanyahu-replies-to-macrons-objections/[/url] Only with US support Israel even can think of annexation of (parts of) the West Bank. These parts of a "US peace plan" is even unaccaptable for the KSA. 

[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syria-records-highest-daily-number-of-coronavirus-cases-since-outbreak/[/url] and [url]https://www.debka.com/can-israel-beat-coronavirus-stage-2/[/url] DJ-With covid-cases exploding all over the Middle East one may hope this could stop further wars...but (stop dreaming) it only will influence the way the wars will develop. 

[url]https://southfront.org/amid-reports-of-reciprocal-troop-pullback-india-rues-technological-dependence-on-china/[/url] DJ-Some other "good news", if India wants a war with China it first needs to buy it materials elsewere. (Most likely that goes for the US as well). 

From Libya [url]https://southfront.org/war-preparations-egypt-and-turkey/[/url] to Ukraine [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/turkey-replaces-destroyed-air-defenses-at-libyan-base-with-ukrainian-system-report/[/url] and [url]https://southfront.org/the-wests-concealment-of-ukrains-terrorist-policy-in-crimea-leaked-recordings-confirm/[/url] and Greece [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/greece-slams-turkeys-decision-to-convert-hagia-sophia-into-a-mosque/[/url] the frontlines of a new major war in the eastern mediterranean is getting clear. 

DJ-In this conflict Turkey is the main player. As partner in the Astana-Syria peace proces it is supposed to "work with" Iran, Russia. As a NATO-partner it is supposed to be under US control (DJ-Lets be realistic). The good thing in both scenario's would be stopping Erdogan from other mistakes. In practice maybe Turkey and Iran agree on killing Kurds-for the rest Erdogan (like Netanyahu) is playing with both the US and Russia. 

Turkey has its military in Iraq and Syria. Both countries want al foreign uninvited forces out-get help by that from Iran and Russia. Turkey-with Saudi Arabia the main motor behind the CIA-organized IS is now transporting (most likely with US help) jihadi's from Syria to Libya. 

[url]https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/07/10/629308/Iran-china-cooperation-deal-boroujerdi-Ansari[/url] China did make a choice to go for its New Silk Road in partnership with Pakistan and now Iran. 

The bad news is that most likely both Russia and China (strategic partners as well) may have given up any hope of usefull talks with the US (and its NATO slave-states). The EU failed to do anything to save the Iran-deal. (DJ-The NL keeps on blaming Russia for the MH17 massmurder-Malaysia a.o. have a different view. Also the NL may get involved with a [url]https://theduran.com/us-plans-to-invade-venezuela-through-colombia/[/url] via Curacou [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cura%C3%A7ao_International_Airport[/url] also used for US operations in Columbia.)

Pushing for conflict is a "make-or-break" moment for NATO. Both the US and RIC (Russia-Iran-China) would like to know wath the EU realy wants and does. (DJ-In my opinion [url]https://southfront.org/70-years-of-nato-is-it-a-high-time-to-retire/[/url] NATO did become a risk for peace. By keeping and even expanding  NATO after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 "we" laid the groundworks for Russian re-armament, are now moving against China eventhough the US position towards China goes against European interests. )

DJ-Eventhough the US is doing the best they can to make Covid-19 a global disaster a lot of countries fail to get a grip on this disease. Politicians do not like faillures, welcome distractions. What better time for a new major conflict ? [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/will-the-chinese-j-31-ghost-fighter-be-able-to-compete-with-the-f-35/[/url] In Syria we already did see drone-wars, hypersonic missiles, F-35's. Most likely Israel did use recently F35's against Iran targets. 

DJ-As always-I hope I am completely wrong. Covid19 will melt away, climate change is a hoax and the US will become partners with RIC....but maybe we are all to old for fairy tales.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mRe-514tGMg[/url] live link webcam NYC-Times square 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 11 2020 at 8:35pm

DJ-Far from perfect-but at least some basic facts [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] we will see 13 million tested cases of Covid19 today....just a tip of the iceberg. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/worldwide-graphs/#total-cases[/url] July 8 we did move to 12 million cases....

I like to look at history as a landscape, with valleys, hills, deserts and green grass. We passed a swamp, with the smell of death-not that long ago. Our "clock"showed 1939-1945-but there are not many hard borders in our landscape...the swamp was still there in 1946,47 with mass starvation in Germany, civil war in Greece, colonial wars-only to become a bigger swamp in 1950-53-Korea War, 1956 Suez Crisis, Viet Nam.

In our travels we do not choose the landscape-we are just travelers in a given landscape on wich we have little influence...

On our path we notice signs of maybe both swamps [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/testing-tracing-treating-how-asias-biggest-slum-beating-coronavirus[/url] and a coming-major-desert [url]https://southfront.org/iraqi-resistance-forces-blew-up-us-logistic-convoy-near-baghdad-videos/[/url], [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/new-videos-show-syrian-army-troops-attempting-to-surround-us-forces-at-checkpoint/[/url].. 

"Leaders" going for distraction [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/president-trump-something-will-happen-with-venezuela[/url] but we have to find our own way...

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/incredible-rainfall-continue-across.html[/url] There may be rain, it will not stop us...

Life is a journey..[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm4BrZjY_Sg[/url] America-A horse with no name...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 12 2020 at 9:55pm

DJ-Statistics-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] reported less than 200.000 new cases, the WHO had a record 230.000 cases. An explanation can be what 24 hours one takes. A GMT-London UK 24 hrs is different from a US 24 hrs. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/release-money-us-covid-19-cases-top-60k-4th-straight-day-massive-protests-shake-israel[/url] Anyway Covid-19 still far from being under control.

There are many weak points in the statistics; it may show testing capacity-not the real spread of Covid19. Increasingly access deaths numbers-including people with other healtissues not getting the treatment they need because of Covid19 will go up. Worldwide there are no realistic statistics very often-just models. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/extreme-heat-dome-fry-us-record-temperatures-121f-several-weeks[/url] Extreme heatwaves, extreme weather events will make matters much worse. 

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/incredible-rainfall-continue-across.html[/url] and [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/china-is-latest-country-to-join-ever.html[/url] locusts worsen the global food-crisis. Not only food production is at risk also the logistics, distribution may be breaking up. 

Conflicts [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/494427-northern-ireland-marches-covid-19/[/url] also keep increasing Covid19. [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/azerbaijani-armenian-forces-involved-in-clashes-along-bordr/[/url].. 

Wars as distraction from the extreme Covid19 mismanagement is a growing risk. A US invasion of Venezuela can make all of Latin America explode. "Things are not looking good"...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 12:59pm

DJ-Looking at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] the US did get over 10.000 cases per 1.000.000 (if you take the 0000 away indeed 1% of the US tested positive for Covid 19) . In the cases per million list the US now is at place 12. In the top 10 four Gulf States-their foreign workers from Bangla Desh, Pakistan most likely do not get good healthcare. Also 3 Latin American countries in the top 11. Brazil is at #15 with 0,8785% of the population "positive". 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/07/covid-19-new-quick-tests-are-coming-cootiestan-a-lack-of-lockdown-death.html[/url] Some good news-a trustworthy rapid test may soon be available. Not 100% perfect but it can slow down further the spread of Covid19-if it is used....

[url]https://covid19-projections.com/#current-us-projections[/url] By election day the US over 200.000 Covid-deaths, 50 milion infections ? DJ-Most likely the US did have already over 200.000 people dying due to Covid19. Close to 140.000 died testing positive, how many died without a test ? Or did not get care-died from other causes-would not die if care was available ? Would be 50% of the "official Covid deaths" be a realistic estimate ? 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/global-coronavirus-cases-top-13-million-us-7-day-average-hits-record-highs-live[/url] lots of info...

[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-53393037[/url]; 

Coronavirus: Nations heading in wrong direction with Covid-19, says WHO

[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53392817[/url];

Coronavirus: White House targets US disease chief Dr Anthony Fauci

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/you-would-be-correct-if-you-were-to.html[/url] DJ-on self-destructive behaviour...

Pandemics in the museum [url]https://rijksmuseumboerhaave.nl/engels/whats/Temporary-exhibitions/[/url]

War-domino; [url]https://southfront.org/iran-to-help-with-air-defense/[/url], [url]https://southfront.org/assad-sends-pantsir-systems-to-counter-turkey/[/url], [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/satellite-images-reveal-destruction-of-turkish-air-defenses-at-libyan-airbase/[/url] DJ-Iran sending air-defense to Syria so Syria can send air-defense to Libya-to be used against Turkey. Iran and Turkey are (sort of ) partners-but in the Lybia-conflict Iran may be on the side of Egypt. 

[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/new-explosion-reported-in-eastern-iran/[/url]  and [url]https://www.debka.com/damage-to-natanz-centrifuge-production-may-be-irreparable/[/url] DJ-The US and Israel goal may be to destroy the Iran nuclear program without starting a direct war. 

[url]https://southfront.org/at-least-4-azerbaijani-soldiers-killed-in-resumed-border-clashes-with-armenian-forces-video/[/url] and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/azerbaijani-forces-suffered-serious-losses-in-battle-with-armenian-military-russian-media/[/url] Re-start of an old conflict ? Armenia is anti-Turkish, good relations with Russia. Azerbaijan did have Israeli/US airbases, has a border with Iran.



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 1 minute ago at 10:45pm

Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfDpuouYUFc[/url] ;

-Statistics, it did take 71 days to get to the first million tested cases, just four days to get from 12 to 13 million tested cases, also deaths going up-even with better treatment. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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