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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic; Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 12:00am

I don't own the book so I can't quote the dates, but a history book about the island I am now living on recorded two events in the 1800s when the island lost 25% of its population to disease in one year.  Being isolated (although on the main sail-boat route from Stockholm to St Petersburg) meant that the diseases were 'novel' ones to the islanders.


[ps parish records were well kept so the data has a high degree of reliability]

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 2:23am

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_%C3%85land_Islands#Continuing_malaria_outbreaks[/url]

EdwinSM-most people do not know that malaria, cholera, TB etc were wide spread-also in western countries-till the '60s/70's-and also are coming back. Malaria sometimes may show up in southern Germany-due to climate change. 

Early settlements in Greenland, Iceland, North America (Vinland etc) also may have "died out".

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 3:02am

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/no-need-hard-quarantine-russia-which-closed-its-border-back-january[/url] Russia did act in time to Covid19-the numbers may not be a 100% but give an indication they A-closed the border with China in time and maybe B the virus had difficulty in dealing with freezing temperatures. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/france-other-us-allies-exit-iraq-bases-over-covid-19-fears[/url]-US is losing ground in SW Asia (Trump did have good contact with China in how to deal with Covid19 (no longer calling it the Wuhan-flu).

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/prof-who-predicted-500k-deaths-uk-has-startling-change-heart-now-predicts-under-20k-two-week[/url] and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/millions-15-minute-coronavirus-home-testing-kits-will-be-available-uk-public-within-days[/url]-DJ-It would be fantastic news if A-good tests came available on a large scale in a short term and B there is already a lot of herd immunity. (DJ-I would have to see that before I believe it !)

Peak Prosperity also discussing on strategy [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YN7aBiICz4[/url] The only way to see if there is already usefull herd immunity has to be doing the right tests. Since exponential growth with a 3 day doubling period means 50% of the cases did get infected the past 3 days, 75% past 6 days, 87,5 past 9 days-if incubation period is between 2 to 14 days over 90% of infected may be without symptoms and could have a low virus-load. 

Economic pressure is becoming very massive-since most bussinisses have only limited financial reserves-may go bankrupt if stringent measures take months. Still "restarting the economy" to early will bring a second pandemic wave. (PP suggest massive use of face masks, keeping those most vulnarable isolated-sounds good to me (DJ) but when I would start wearing a facemasks in the Netherlands I could face agression-masks are only for health care workers-still)

[url]https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/03/25/621583/Iran-coronavirus-test-kits-[/url] Iran is making its own tests-could export them if they are good. (The US is the only country in the west willing to put sanctions on Iran-medical gear could be excluded).

[url]https://kcnawatch.org/newstream/1585216889-24679017/korean-people-help-each-other-in-combat-against-epidemic/[/url] North Korea is not included in most international reporting. 

DJ-I think-also Turkey, Africa, America's lots of refugeecamps-we are still in the early phase of a pandemic. GP's in the Netherlands say dutch CDC-RIVM-is not counting people dying at home from Covid19. There is a "theoritical line" based on models, official reporting, burocracy-that is defining the official response. And there is the "frontline-practice"giving a picture that is getting more and more different. In Germany also reporting from local level to national level may be "problematic" resulting in much to optimistic numbers while some hospitals are already running out of ICU's, masks, PPE's etc. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 27 2020 at 9:24am
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 12:27am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yN3BWaEH3tY[/url] another good Peak Prosperity (PP) update;

-In "Spiegel" Germany must have thousends of serious cases-somehow that does not get in international statistics.

-Phillippines very major underreporting

-Lancet-editor at BBC-the lack of preparing when-end of january we knew from China the pandemic was coming-is a scandal. 

-N.Y. health authority beginning of february-"there are no problems" take public transport, go shopping, parade etc.....

-cases in New Orleans exploding

-corona-virus can give you a cold-after that you have immunity for some months-lets hope covid19 gives longer immunity (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

-Why are there thousends of urn-vases being shipped to Wuhan if there were "only" just over 3000 covid-deaths ?

(DJ-how much colatteral deaths were there-not due to covid-infection but due to lack of care since Covid took all-and more-of the care being given. Wuhan has [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan[/url] over 11 million inhabitants-so on a daily bases-under normal conditions-thousends are born and die there-taking care of "normal deaths" may have stopped for a time-it could be logical)

Hal Turner claims "Huge military call up in USA"-(behind paywall) very likely-PP reporting so many cases of HCW not being protected, infected, dying-it is only logical all reserves are being put in action. 

Elsewere on this forum a picture of how there seems to be no stop on flights in/from the US-spreading the virus like crazy....

(DJ-In a first stage cfr may be very limited-but when the healthsystem collapses cfr goes up both from covid19 and other causes-stage two. Stage three is collapse of logistics, police etc. food problems, safety becomes an issue-the US seems to be moving very fast to stage three. You can call in the military but there are also limits to what they can do; "create safe zones" you end up with "war lords" in control of some area's. At a certain level the central government is acting on false data controlling nobody-the end game. Sad thing this could and should have been prevented. The economy is gone-a lock down for months would have done much less damage.

The US is not the only state in this position-but with nuclear plants and weapons it is the most dangerous state in this position. With drug lords, a criminal second economy, you know who is able to get control....) 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/13-reasons-fear-coming-covid-world-order[/url]

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 12:49am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

(DJ-In a first stage cfr may be very limited-but when the healthsystem collapses cfr goes up both from covid19 and other causes-stage two. Stage three is collapse of logistics, police etc. food problems, safety becomes an issue-the US seems to be moving very fast to stage three. You can call in the military but there are also limits to what they can do; "create safe zones" you end up with "war lords" in control of some area's. At a certain level the central government is acting on false data controlling nobody-the end game. Sad thing this could and should have been prevented. The economy is gone-a lock down for months would have done much less damage.

The US is not the only state in this position-but with nuclear plants and weapons it is the most dangerous state in this position. With drug lords, a criminal second economy, you know who is able to get control....) 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/13-reasons-fear-coming-covid-world-order[/url]

Thank you, DJ!  Many of us in the American prep community have long anticipated such a dystopian scenario.   As this ramps up, who knows what will happen? 

With our Pres. Trump sending US troops to the border with Canada, you have to figure that the patients have taken over the insane asylum over here! 

Be well, DJ!  

CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 28 2020 at 2:16am

CRS, DrPH-In Brazil judges, states, cities manage to get some grip on their "leading idiot bolsenaro". Lets hope in the US-with a lot of intelligent people-on lower levels corrections can be made when the #1 is a disaster.

Good info like MedCram [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IPAr3FB1LHQ[/url] Paul Beckwith [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-odvYiy60cI[/url] can provide education were governments fail. 

With no affordable health insurance for most, hospitals for profit, no paid sickleave, still almost all transport going on in most of the US it is unfair to put all the blame on trump. But the west knew this was coming since (early) january ! 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#page-top[/url] now not only mentions over 600.000 confirmed cases (the real number will be at least 10X higher)  but also when the first case showed up !

Stay safe-there are lots of things you can do-get enough sleep, accept a (mild) fever because it may help to fight the infection. 

But for those millions in the US without a house or in prison......(25%+ of all global prisoners are in US-private ???-prisons) the outcome looks bleak.  

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 12:51am

DJ-Another good presentation by Paul Beckwith [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UL8jDwRxz7M[/url].. "Made in Italy" luxery goods does not say it was made by Chinese in Italy. Tens-of-thousends Chinese with direct flights from China. Criminal "taking care of dead people" to sell their pasports. 

The outbreak in Italy is directly linked to the China outbreak. In itself the Italy outbreak was transported to the US. Canadians had a march-break-over 3% went to the US, Canadians in the US and EU wanted to return to Canada "at all cost" even ill in a plane. But most of the infected are in the 20-29 year age-and do not show (severe) symptoms-transporting the virus allover the globe. 

"Rest at home or rest in peace", "stay 6 ft away are end 6ft under" are some slogans-the old wisdom that during a plague you do not travel was forgotten by those who make decisions.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-odvYiy60cI&t=1s[/url] most virusses are influenced by warmer weather-maybe Covid19/SARS2 will slow down ? (To keep some hope).

DJ-The lack of action in "the west" only offer worst case scenario's. The worst of those scenario's is [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_event[/url], part of [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sixth_Extinction:_An_Unnatural_History[/url]

Already climate change is disrupting food production, we have a global economy that is making 0.1% of the people extremely rich at the cost of others. We did see a decline in spending on education, healthcare, social security. This is making the global society very vulnerable. On top of that we have a new "cold war" with hypersonic weapons, cyberwar etc. 

Comparing with the Spanish Flu-nowadays most people live in urban area's, depend for their food, jobs etc on global economy. In 1918 local economy could provide food, jobs to the 2 billion people back then. (Half of them got infected, 500 million got sick, 100 million-5% of the global population-died). 

The Spanish flu came in three waves-the second wave turned out to be deadliest. But once you had the flu-type you could have very long lasting immunity. Immunity for corona-virusses may last for a few months....and we are only in the first wave. 

The best worst case scenario would see a total travel ban, people stay/work from home-goods being delivered on their door-for MONTHS !!!!! You have to get the R0 <1-stop the spread. Some essential jobs-to keep a basic economy going-can be done by workers who stay-isolated-at the jobsite. 

I (DJ) do believe that slowly we may move to this scenario-at the costs of (tens of) millions-with Covid19/SARS2 ravaging through Latin America, Africa, India etc were slumps will be out of control. (Even when gangs in Rio are punishing people that get outdoors-the housing is that poor, families that large-it will spread any way). 

"It did not have to be this way" 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 3:37am

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqKwAIIy-Mo&t=6s[/url] MedCram update 43-on how an epidemic works.

DJ-My translation of the story-say half the global population get infected (optimistic scenario) by Covid19/SARS2. Something like 4 billion. Of that group 20% would need medical care=800 million. (Some 5% need ICU-care).The peak of those cases would be spread over months...some countries will manage better than others-all countries will be overrun-with also millions of people dying from other causes, risk of outbreaks of other diseases etc. 

The "weapons"/means of defense are various, from travel-stop, self-isolation, using soap, a TB-vaccine looks promissing in increasing the immune system. Testing (serological/bloodtests) at a cerain moment can help identify those who did get immunity. 

Still on a global scale-in this late phase to stop the spread-with so little steps taken by most countries-another usefull action has to be to increase medical facilities. (Maybe also splitting care for non-covid patients from covidpatients to lower "collateral deaths" from non-covid diseases. 

From maximum efforts to produce PPE, masks etc. to keep Health Care Workers (HCW) safe-as good as possible-and keep a basic healthcare standing. To maximum enforce rules to limit the spread of Covid-19/SARS2. (Another action has to be monitoring other upcoming infections/diseases. Also a second wave of corona-infections-maybe even hitting people who did get infected earlier and believed to be immune should be detected in the very early stage. )

This is "a job" for the coming (two ?) years-not months. To be realistic-given the poor state of healthcare in most countries-we may be very lucky if we can keep the number of deaths < 100 million. (And that is a very optimistic estimate.) The sooner "world leaders"become realistic on this problem the more lives can be saved. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 5:50am

Countries with the highest "health security index "are failing in Covid19 outbreak. 

The US is not stopping its agression against Iran, Venezuela etc. instead of spending money on improving healthcare "zillions" go to big companies and wars. [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/in-a-time-of-crisis-us-foreign-policy-gets-worse.html[/url]

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/health/dont-look-now-people-responsible-worlds-food-supply-are-starting-get-sick[/url]

DJ-The US should stop sabotaging international aid in the fight against Covid19 !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 hours 38 minutes ago at 11:42pm

Another good update from Peak Prosperity-showing even some optimism ! [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2w9M6K9vSUM[/url].. MASKS !!!!

-The WHO keeps publishing nonsense-Covid 19 would not be airborne-virus that heavy it would drop within seconds-fact is virus are very light-WHO claim of 1 metre distance as "safe"is insane-8 metres is "safe" in some aspects. But virus particles may hang in the air for hours-can end up in air conditioning etc....

The best protection-since over 80% of Covid19 is spread by people with no or light symptoms-is masks !!!

The lesser virusparts one can bring in the air the better-a mask also can protect you from virusparts in the air, remind you not to touch your face...countries that use (home made) masks see a (sharp) reduction in cases. Still in a lot of western countries (including NL) you are considered "crazy" wearing a mask-"that is needed in healthcare". Wearing a mask makes uneducated people believe YOU are infected-should stay home in the first place...

DJ-Since social media can be a very major influencer-better than most governments, CDC's, WHO, social media can be used to change this way of thinking. 

PP also showing ways to desinfect masks (paper bag-put mask inside-heat above 57C for over 1 hour-but storage in a dry place-for 9 (+) days-(with sunlight if possible) can also do the trick. )

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-super-painful-bill-gates-urges-10-week-nationwide-lockdown[/url]

DJ-Since Covid19/SARS2 is now totally out of control worldwide (masks may decrease the speed of spread R0) healthcare is going to collapse. We have to get the R0 down to <1 to stop the spread. (The PP story could be used to try people to "act normal" -reopen schools, work etc-with masks-but that would be a bad idea). 

Looking at the numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] and reminding that incubation-peak is 5 days healthcare is close to a crash in lots of places. In India over 120 million migrant workers on the move to their small vilages-due to a lock down (so no work, no income, no housing or care=go back to family). Worldwide the number of refugeees is in the tens of millions...."third world"(we only have ONE world DJ) countries facing explosive rise of cases...this is just the early stage of the first wave of this pandemic....

DJ-With the US still pushing/promoting wars in/against Syria, Iraq, Iran, Yemen, Libya, Venezuela, North Korea etc. while US forces face Covid19 the risks for nuclear war increases. (DJ-Put the doomsday clock closer to midnight 10 seconds by a million more cases of (tested) Covid19/SARS2 cases ? We are now a (very optimistic) 100 seconds away from midnight). 

-Heatwaves proberbly just weeks away, other extreme weatherevents, seismic activity can happen every moment-further increasing problems. 

The international community (= including us all as humans) have to make survival top priority (or face the consequences...)

MedCram -update 42 on animal testing-after 28 days after recovery from first infection monkeys could not get reinfected with Covid19. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4P91VrfPGw[/url].. DJ point is immunity for corona-virus that give a cold last longer than 28 days most times-but you can get reinfected by those virusses within a year...it is good they are testing but this described test (in China) did not (yet) provide new information. Re-infection is a big worry !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4P91VrfPGw[/url] For the US at local level cases

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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