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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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Tabitha111 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2020 at 5:53am

You are awesome DJosh!  Thanks for all you do! from a fellow "news Junkie"

'When you feel as though you can't do something, the simple antidote is action: Begin doing it. Start the process, even if it's just a simple step, and don't stop at the beginning.'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2020 at 9:48pm

Thanks Tabitha111, 

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] Good news-outcome ratio-global-now has dropped to 8% deaths, 92% discharged. OK-these are statistics-with that much spread in "poor" countries that hardly test the real numbers are not easy to catch in statistics. In my opinion in reality outcome ratio worsens; very limited care capacity with fast growing numbers. Often in "poor"countries it is a younger population-with better chances. (In the US it is still 10% deaths !)

A few months back there was a "sort of trend" of 75-80% mild cases (could still include pneumonia, causing lasting damage) on the other end around 5% needing ICU-that is hardly there in "poor countries". The remaining 15-20% needed hospital care. 

In "poor countries" there are often already co-morbidities, from HIV, TB, diabetes to malaria. Life expectency in some of the worst places under "normal conditions" is around 40 years. With locusts eating the harvest, climate chaos, wars, the corona-crisis in "poor countries" may become a massive killer. But "untested" they end up in mass graves not in statistics...

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/06/boris-johnsons-government-hides-covid-19-data-that-is-needed-to-control-new-local-outbreaks.html[/url]-As always good info-this time on the UK "number game". Most countries give "limited data"-certainly with elections on the way if they can claim a succes the governments will do so. Even the mayor of Leicester was surprised by the news his region had to be lock-downed again-even at that level the real info/numbers were not available.

-Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5dhemK4R_o[/url] also starts of with the "number game". US cases still exploding-Dr.Fauci warning for 100.000 new US cases per day (wich may get tested-if they are lucky-but that is about it in treatment-with these kind of massive numbers). 

PP/CM mentions California-if it would be a country-would have #7 in global economies. Also Texas getting hit very hard. Economic damage is huge-FED hiding it by buying all the stocks, debts etc. they can (and make the rich even more rich-in US$-the days of US$ is "under pressure" but that is another side of the corona-crisis.)

-US-CDC "it is out of control". DJ-Most likely in the US the CDC can advise governments. The problem is with those governments "saving the economy" by lifting the only "weapon"available, Non Pharma Intervention. If there is limited immunity (Most countries not much more than 5% test positive on anti-bodies), no accepted cure or vaccine the only thing able to stop the virus is slowing down/stop community spread. No NPI=disaster and that is even worse for the economy. 

-DJ-In all countries the spread in population is uneven. If you are retired early, can work/study from home, have private transport and groceries delivered you have much better chances than when you havo to "go into the crowd" by job, public transport-have limited job security and health insurance. This inequality will/has become a major problem. Why accept any government rules if the governments keep failing on providing even basic security ? It is the poor that end up losing their job, than their housing and health at the end dying-because they are poor. Given the number of poor people in much countries and them getting aware of how they are being mistreated no way they will accept that. 

-New H1N1 in China still in the phase of jumping from pigs to humans (DJ-Is it ? If China did not share info on Covid19 in time-I think they may not have realized how big the problem was in time-do they do that much better now ? Are should we "read between the lines" and is this new China-pig-H1N1 already a major worry in China ?)

-DJ-Lots of people claim Covid19 is not a big deal,access deaths dropping below normal numbers, high "recovery". PP-May reports of long lasting severe healthissues in recovered cases. In many countries hospital care close to collapse. From Israel reports in cases that test negative after infection of extreme pain-doctors can not find a reason behind the pain. (DJ-Could the virus be hiding in muscles-still doing damage-may re-emerge ?)

-DJ (based on PP) Conclusions; you do not want to catch this virus. The US is a failed state in the FED spending billions/trillions to save Boeing, Coca Cola, Warren Buffet etc but zero for the average guy. Covid19 is out of control.


  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 30 2020 at 11:32pm

DJ-Some jumps; [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.2000.html[/url]and [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3154.0.html[/url] nearly 40% of the Arctic Sea Ice Forum expect 2020 to see less-or same amount of sea-ice in the Arctic than in 2012 record low. Discussion on what to expect the coming two months-with high pressure over the Arctic-lots of sunshine and melting. 

Less sea ice in the Arctic=more instability in global weather-also very likely more extremes. This will increase further the already existing food crisis-wich will increase global social unrest-wars for water, food on top of energy wars. 

-The Peak Prosperity episode of today-posted above-more or less concludes the US is sinking to a failed state. (DJ-With growing social unrest, exploding health problems, more extreme weather events, collapsing infra structure.) From the BRICS Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa may not be abble to get a grip on Covid19 soon. Only China maybe can claim some succes. 

The EU (with the UK still in the EU since Brexit still only is words) is not doing very well. UK-close to out of control-with misleading statistics (only counting hospital cases). Germany struggling to deal with major outbreaks. [url]https://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkels-last-eu-council-presidency-what-to-expect/a-54000969[/url] (DW-Can Merkel save the EU ?)

DJ-My question/worry is how close are we to global collapse ? What will it look like ? How long will it take ? 

-[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-russian-military-amassing-forces-in-raqqa/[/url] and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russia-and-turkey-increase-flights-to-libya-as-major-showdown-at-sirte-approaches/[/url] DJ-Both in Syria and Libya (and maybe Yemen) there is a growing risk of a confrontation between Turkey and Russia. The US may choose to back Turkey. The Pakistan-India-China confrontation for now is showing some de-escalation. (DJ-Most likely India knows it will get hit very hard in any such confrontation-not only by Pakistan and China but also conflicts with Nepal, Bangla Desh, Myamar etc. the best option is to use Russia as a mediator to limit damage.) 

-Besides from extreme weather events also growing risks of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Both partly related to less ice keeping pressure on shelves due to extreme melting. We will most likely see a M8+ quake in "the ring of fire" this year-maybe in combination with major volcanic eruptions. 

-Our ability to deal with these kind of disasters will be very limited. A new Fukushima nuclear accident may be a "big challange". (With more nuclear plants in poor/other countries, India, UAE, Turkey, Egypt that would need foreign help to deal with a crisis.) Health issues will worsen due to such major events. 

DJ-Will we survive-as human species-till 2025 ? Do we find answers to this many crises ? Is there still a way out, do we have some time left ? I hate to ask these questions because I hate the answers....at best "we don't know". Many changes will come very fast.

-EU-Russia-China cooperation ? End of US and US-petro$ dominance ?

-Renewable energy "revolution" with fossil fuels only used to "buy time" ?

-A "global police state" contact tracing every person 24/7 and strict medical rules, forced vaccination/testing etc. ?

-A "two world system"; world 1=safe, good healthcare, housing education etc. world 2=chaos (and at war with world 1 that controls world 2-maybe can bring world 2 to world 1 status) ? World1 is "fenced in" world2 is widespread "new normal". 

-Global population drop by billions (due to illnesses, starvation, "natural" disasters, wars/violence etc). 

DJ-We may have seen something similar in the 14th century Europe with the "plague". But the world has changed that much it is hard to compare. Maybe the conquest of the America's-with up to 90% of the "Indians" getting killed (most by disease or war) also has some resemblance. (Allthough that "proces"started in 1492 and maybe still is going on.)

The best thing to do for now is try to stay as healthy as one can. Have some reserves in money and food/water etc. 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2020 at 2:47am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

Less sea ice in the Arctic=more instability in global weather-also very likely more extremes. This will increase further the already existing food crisis-wich will increase global social unrest-wars for water, food on top of energy wars. 

All that fresh water fed into the Atlantic Conveyor, not to mention polar ice melt, is a recipe for disaster.  It's why I hold the opinion it's too late.  The Atlantic Conveyor which is the engine for all the other jet streams has already slowed down 20% in the last 50 years.  The tipping point has already been reached.  The best we can do is mitigate disaster.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2020 at 11:13pm

WM-In climate change I think it is realistic to claim we only have a choice in worst case scenario's. Methane is speeding up the proces, water vapor as well. I am not an expert but MSM repeating sealevelrise is missing (on purpose) the point. At a certain moment (most likely already behind us) food production will decrease. We have seen "[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature[/url]" in the past [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_temperature_and_health[/url] and may see these cases "explode" soon. Humans overheat in those conditions. 

Sealevelrise is a major risks for some islands, delta's like Bangla Desh etc. and in storms, king-tides, tsunami's increase the risks. But foodproduction and killing heat seem to be the main problems. 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/03/2c-crossed.html[/url] If we go over 3C+ in 2026 we may "not survive". (Others go for Global Average Surface Temperatures-GAST-but the basic point is the same. )

July 1 saw an increase globally of almost 200.000 cases (US 50.000+, Brazil almost 45.000+ tested cases). With this speed we will get to another million in 5,5 days-we will be facing (with increasing speed) 20 million cases somewere in august (at best). [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] 

Covid19 comes on top of-most likely is related to-climate change. It is part of a deadly mega-mix. [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/it-took-more-than-three-months-for.html[/url] With other "side effects" [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/06/locust-situation-update-posh-financial.html[/url] becoming deadly as well. Locusts eating our food, meat production dealing with all kinds of diseases in a.o. pigs and birds. (The Big Wobble has other "developments" as well-when people with some brains dig a little deeper they become alarmists. We-as humans-have been very lucky in many ways most of the 20th century-but in history that was a very abnormal time. Since we have a short lifespan and choose to ignore history we take that very abnormal period-during wich human population exploded-as "normal". That idea is wrong !!!)

I hate to bring messages of despair, dystopia (utopia is the opposite) and-again-I am not an expert, not a scientist-so I hope I am very, very wrong. 

I can put links to ZH like [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/australia-places-300k-under-lockdown-global-cases-near-105-million-live-updates[/url] , [url]https://southfront.org/[/url] and [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/[/url] Civil wars, growing tensions etc. on top of the other chaos. But the picture should be clear-we can not survive the way we-as humans-behave that much longer. 

Main-stream-media is "info-tainment"-advertising mixed with "news people want to read". Puppies&kittens-show, mixed with "royalty"and "investment-tips that will get you rich".  We may find ourself on a global titanic with music playing till the water comes...

PS-I did not mention the economic crash....."live now, die later" ..

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2020 at 12:16am

An interview with a medical historian University of Amsterdam [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/historicus-we-hadden-beter-kunnen-weten-met-het-coronavirus~aa9470c6/[/url] via google translate;


Historian: "We should have known better with the coronavirus" We should learn from history how to fight pandemics, says medical historian Manon Parry. “But we don't do that enough. We are far too complacent. ”

The crux of the problem is that we forget, says medical historian Manon Parry. “Again and again and again. We simply do not learn from the past. Sometimes we don't even learn from things that happened two or three months ago. ”

Manon Parry doesn't need a lot of words to explain why a pandemic like the one in Corona could have hit us like this. More than half A year ago, we knew nothing about it, now more than half a million people around the world have died of corona and at least ten million have been infected. But, says Parry: "We should have known."

Raging and rampaging

The British Parry teaches History of Medicine at the Free University of Amsterdam. She focuses in particular on the 19th and 20th centuries. She also spent ten years at the National Library of Medicine in Bethesda, Maryland. More than seven million books, reports, manuscripts and photos about medicine and related sciences are kept there. Those who are seriously interested in viruses, epidemics and pandemics should go there.

In the past, there have been numerous raging and rampant diseases that have afflicted and decimated entire cities, countries and even empires. The Bible and Homer's Iliad already described them. These are not, of course, reports from trained physicians, but health catastrophes have been increasingly detailed over the following centuries.

For example, of the Black Death, which traveled through Europe in the 14th century and the population was reduced by about a third. Or the English sweat disease in the 15th century, which is fatal within 24 hours after infection and affects all of Northern Europe. A smallpox epidemic in Mexico and Central America killed millions of inhabitants in the 16th century. And from a somewhat more recent past we know the Spanish Flu, which strikes among the weakened world population at the end of the First World War. About fifty million people die.

The same behavior
Manon Parry only needs to look at her own area of interest, the last two centuries, to see recurring patterns. “Fast-growing cities, mass migration, wars, climate problems. In general, the more people, the more movements, the more diseases. And again and again, with every epidemic or pandemic, the same behavior returns. Nothing happens at first. Then we say, well, it's not that bad. Dan: it may be bad, but it cannot happen here with us. Then we refuse to put the "pandemic" label on it for a long time. All this gives the virus time to develop and spread, and then it's too late. At least, a lot of time would have been lost. ”

The reactions to the misery caused by the diseases are also the same over time. "Others are to blame. Often minorities or foreigners, but also other countries. Now it's the Chinese, if you listen to the President of the United States. ” The Jews often had to pay for it, but also "witches", rag farmers, traveling merchants or the one who just happened to be at war with the affected country. During a major syphilis epidemic, the Germans spoke of "French disease," the French of "Polish disease," while the Poles spoke of "German disease."

Get a grip

Often we also think we can get something under control if we describe it very closely, says Parry. “Look at AIDS, for example. That was the disease of the four H's for a long time: gays, Haitians, hemophilia patients and heroin addicts. As a result, many other patients have not been detected, which means that a lot of information has been lost. ”

She understands how this all happens. “We are trying to get a grip on something we don't understand. We need to collect as much data as possible, including from the past, and look closely at it. But we don't do that. The fact that colored people are so vulnerable in England, for example, has nothing to do with fate. This is because they are poor and have less access to healthcare. You can do something about that. If you look at it that way, at least. ”

Second wave
Parry is convinced that there will be a second corona wave, and it will be more deadly than the first. It was the same with previous pandemics, she says. “Under great pressure, public places are being reopened, and the economy has to be restarted, sometimes far too quickly. That has happened before and it is also well documented. But history is not taken seriously. We suffer from a kind of biomedical optimism, we think that we can end all diseases, that we will always have a vaccine soon. We are far too complacent. We ignore the simple fact that there will always be diseases. Do you know that there is still no vaccine against the HIV virus? So let's not blind ourselves to the possibility of simple solutions. ”

She does not want to look annoying, she says, because she knows that today's leaders have a great responsibility. “I probably couldn't have done better under these circumstances. But let's start investing more in health care, in nursing staff, in interdisciplinary research. This is complicated, expensive and takes longer, but it is much more effective than, for example, building a new hospital. And let's also move away from blind faith in our own national approach. "Here we do it like this," as if we don't have an international society. "

And for the next time: ,, Please act faster. Especially if people have been warning of a pandemic for ten years. If there is one thing we need to learn from the past, it is not to be complacent. New diseases are emerging and they can appear everywhere. Also here."
We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 02 2020 at 10:41pm

DJ-Another Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbfvEKE3vKk[/url]

-statistics, cases rising but number of deaths stay behind. DJ-PP claims number of cases on the rise in India, Pakistan, Bangla Desh, Peru, Brazil-due to better treatment (????) number of deaths stay behind. My question than is, is no treatment (for most in those "poor" countries-because we made a choice to keep them poor) better than intubating the west did in april, may ? 

-vaccines, a Pfizer antibody vaccine in two shots gives a person 1.8 to 2.5 the number of antibodies a severe Covid19 infected person has. PP Messenger RNA (MRNA) treatments are new, succesratio (still) is 0%. Reminder the Oxford chimera-study in monkeys first looked promissing but at the end was not effective in monkees). DJ-It is still unclear how long immunity lasts-corona-virusses has been around a long time, most only giving a cold. Immunity there could be months-so if you go for a vaccine on antibodies-basis-you go for several vaccinations per year. PP-Keep your immune system the best you can. Vitamin D is essential. 

-Other vaccine problems; asymptomatic people (test positive but do not get "ill" although they may develop (slowly ?)  lasting lung damage) do have less antibodies-spread a lower rate of virusparts for a longer period (DJ-I did see a study 40% of spread via asymptomatic cases). After 8 weeks 40% of these "asymptomatic cases" have lost antibodies, and even in the more severe cases 13% did lose antibodies in just 8 weeks. Canada CBCreport on China study of 37 cases)

-With antibodies gone in weeks looking at serological data to find out how many people did get infected becomes impossible. DJ-If you want to find out how the virus spread, developed, you can not do that much with antibody tests. (If 40% of asymptomatic cases lose antibodies in 8 weeks-over 80% of those cases will have lost antibodies in 16 weeks ? Even over 26% of more severe cases may have no antibodies left in 16 weeks ? Maybe frozen samples, earlier studies, may give an indication of the "(travel)history of the disease". Knowing a history can tell you some things of the future...but there will be much less data available..)

-PP, how does immunity work ? From min 19, antibodies, T-cells, B-cells etc. part of slow response to infection. Rapid response is via "killer cells" , macrophages etc. They may be at work in the asymptomatic cases-create less/no antibodies.

-Autopsies, direct virus damage in organs is limited-most of the damage is caused by clotting, oxygen not going were it is needed. May also explain some "recovered"patients long lasting (in some cases permanent-DJ-be realistic) health issues. Fatigue, problems with orientation, walking etc. (DJ-Post Viral Syndrom mixed with in sme cases PTSS ?)

-Jacinda Arden PM of New Zealand thanking science-communicators. DJ-We may have to fix stupid-or die...it may be that simple. Covid-parties, anti-science "politics", refusal to wear masks because "it is your body" is killing us all. Stupidity may be the biggest problem in these days. Not climate change, Covid19-but the lack of understanding urgency, the need to act...

-Sorensen Norway-study-90% certain this Covid19 virus is man/lab-made. It is essential to develop a vaccine against not changing parts of this virus. A "natural"virus is not this constant in effectiveness infecting people. (PP also earlier claimed Covid19 came from a lab. DJ-If finding treatments, vaccines has to do with were the virus came from the question if it is lab-made is important.) Small -neutral-countries may be able to go for these kind of "politicized"studies. If the US did outsource dangerous gain-of-function studies to Wuhan and now both the US and China have lots of things to hide something closer to reality may come from other places.

Conclusions; Many countries have a long way to go in dealing with the virus. Herd/group-immunity and anti-body vaccines may only be of very limited use. PP-does not want to start on the FED or July 4 US celebrations....

DJ-Herdimmunity was a basic point in the strategy most countries did choose. If the virus is not a major risk it could be an understandable decission. Low cost-spread the infections-no need to vaccinate. However this virus IS a very major risk. Immunity may be very limited while the health and economic damage is extreme. 

Switching strategy in the middle of a "war" does not go well with most political cultures. It means you have to admit as governments you made a mistake, a wrong choice. But sticking to a bad choice makes matters worse. There is an "alternative" being implemented in a silent way. 

Apps-checking-high tech surveillance is being rolled out. The Big Brother State-already on its way in "the war on terror" is becoming dictatorial in a "war against the virus". Face-recognition, intelligent camera's also checking on human behaviour, were you went. "Smart phone tracking", looking into the sort of contacts, searches people make-leave no room left for privacy. Computers decide on wich person is a risk. China, Israel go for high-tech. It is getting cheaper, with 5G-network it is fast enough. 

Do governments create risks (terrorism, virusses) or let them get out of control to use them for a "Super State"? If Covid19 was lab-made, IS and alquaida are CIA products are "we" the enemy ? Is a "cold war"a facade for crowd control ?  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2020 at 12:33am

DJ-Some other links;

[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493472-covid-second-wave-blame/[/url] and [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493403-pandemic-msm-panic-swine-flu/[/url] DJ-Main Stream Massmedia has fallen into an unhealthy relationship with politics. To get info "journalists" have to make sacrifices-may end up being "embedded". News organizations are not independent-owners of media most of the time do also have political interests. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dr-fauci-warns-mutations-could-make-covid-19-more-infectious[/url] A vaccine in january 2021-DJ Why is politics behaving like we are on the end of a crisis while we may have to deal with this crisis for at least 6 months-on a global scale most likely over a year ? Do consumers have to decide ? By NOT flying, NOT going to restaurants, cinema's do "the majority of the people" have to correct politics ? 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/college-students-busted-throwing-covid-19-parties-infect-all-their-friends[/url] DJ-Stupid people do stupid things, some clever people do stupid things in "a clever way". Do some intelligent people give up hope of finding solutions ? It is easy to condemn these parties-it is better to understand the reason behind those parties. Do communications get the effect you want ? If not improve communications ! (You do not want a police-state like response.)

Yes the economic damage is extrem [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/v-shaped-recovery-covid-kills-46000-jobs-baltimore-downturn[/url] but ignoring the problem makes things worse. That is when leadership comes in. There is no way back to the "old normal"-it is gone, history. So "welcome to a new normal" ! Let start defining that new normal in how we want to deal with risks we have to face in a new normal. The "old normal" created those risks-they may look like the "good old days" but there is a big shadow over those days. 

DJ-[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/while-president-and-would-be-president.html[/url] We are in a mega mix of deadly problems. Lets be honest-most of us may not survive this chaos we created ourselves. But what do we want to preserve ? What can we save ? What is the best we can make as a legacy for those of next generations that may be able to survive ? How do we want to be seen by "others out there" or do we want to "fade away"?

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] july 2-new tested global cases up 208.000 in the US up 57.000 cases, Brazil up 47.000 cases. Soon other countries, India, Bangla Desh, Pakistan will see increases in the same range. Will we be at an average increase of 300.000 cases per day on july 10, 400.000 cpd july 20, 500.00 cpd july 30 ? Is the testing capacity the limit ? In how many countries healthcare already did collapse ? How many Covid19 refugees on their way ? Who will be counting the deaths ? Why is there no international coordination ?  5,7 million cases of the 10,9 million global cases are in the America's.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 03 2020 at 10:19pm

DJ-Some links-not directly corona-linked but "background";

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/m4-6-quake-severely-loosens-hilina-slump-if-land-slides-pacific-wide-tsunami[/url] DJ USGS reported another M4.3 in the same area a few hours ago. If the ground is that instabile there may be a real risk of "some landslides". You do not need a worst case scenario. The amount of ground that could be moving is big. 

A landslide in itself can cause further landslides due to the waves it create. A "seaquake" can start this proces as well. Of course an increase in volcanic activity should not be welcome.

DJ-There are many risks in this world-live always will be a balancing act. From time to time things go wrong-not a major problem in itself but in combination with other problems it may become a huge problem. 

[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/07/lebanon-at-the-crossroads.html[/url] DJ-Lebanon is not the only country in economic problems. In fact a lot of Latin American countries, (etc) face the same problems. You can chance the name of the actors but the drama may not be that different. US backing an old elite that caused major problems by corruption-Russia-Iran-China see the gap and try to move in. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/america-heading-civil-war[/url] This ZH article is from the viewpoint of a "conservative", but a "progressive" may have been writing something similar. Will the US elections-and outcome-increase further tensions in the US ? Is there a peacefull solution ? One of many problems could be the fall of the US$-causing hyperinflation-just like in Lebanon-maybe even the scheme behind it has similarities. In this corona-age the poor most often get poorer, the rich get richer, the gap widens. 

DJ-Of course "you only start a war when you can profit from it". The US Military Industrial Complex (MIC) has been promoting wars for decades-to make a profit. The US became a global power due to two world wars. You do not become a superpower by being friendly (as the UK, NL, Spain, Rome etc. knows). The MIC has the US in its grips-causing endless wars at the cost of the taxpayer (and international as long as energy deals, international trade is US$ linked). A healthy compromise would see less military spending-in the US-and more on infrastructure, basic healthcare, housing, education. Problem with that view is that for the elite "it is socialism"-and they control the media. Most civilized countries go for that compromise-with governments active in housing, healthcare education. 

Not only Lebanon is at  the crossroads, the US is as well. 

DJ-The US is at war with Iran in Syria and Iraq. In Libya Russia, Egypt and France may come to the aid of Haftar, against Turkey (and Italy-also both NATO members). Syria is preparing to deal with the Turkish forces in northern Syria-most likely under the condition the Kurds accept Assad. (DJ-And when the Kurds accept Assad the Syrian Arab Army may take over the Syria-Turkish border-Turkey has lost its excuse for being in Syria. US forces may have no other choice then to move to Iraq. (The US being in both Syria and Iraq goes against any international law-is a war crime in itself). Again-also the Yemen war did not stop-pushing Saudi Arabia further into bankruptcy while on the other hand Covid19 may be very widespread in Yemen and KSA. We have to see how the US will get out of Afghanistan....it should n't have to be this way. 

Of course in the US-China war it is quiet at the China-Pakistan frontlines with India. US Navy [url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/us-deploys-2-aircraft-carriers-to-south-china-sea-in-show-of-force-towards-beijing/[/url] trying to make a statement in the South China Sea. 

How do politicians react on a major crisis "at home"? Start an even bigger crisis somewere far away. The MIC and rich elite loves wars-that is getting them rich-giving them control over energy (like in the South China Sea). Escalating the US wars with Russia, Iran, China is the US elite's answer to Covid19 and BLM. Only this time it most likely will NOT work. [url]https://southfront.org/nato-2020-a-coalition-of-the-unwilling/[/url]  (DJ-[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/mother-of-all-battles-in-libya-is-close-military-expert/[/url] A Turkish (to put it that way) offensive in eastern Libya may escalate in full blown war in the eastern mediterranean. Egypt will move in-with Russia, France, Greece on its side. In Syria Russia and Assad/Kurdish forces may start kicking out Turkey (ending the Astana talks). Since Qatar is a Turkish ally (with both a major US base and Iranian and Turkish military-in its conflict with KSA) and the UAE is also in conflict with the Saudi's (a.o. in Yemen-US/UK supporting KSA genocide) an escalation is possible on the Arab peninsula as well. (With Iran in an impossible position-good relations with Turkey, as good as in war with Saudi Arabia while Turkey and KSA are allies in many other conflicts. Most likely Iran will go for deals with the UAE/Qatar, Russia and France, Assad-against Turkey. This puts Iran on the side of Israel-against Turkey in the mediterranean oil conflict...and on the side of Greece, Lebanon, Cyprus...) With the US now siding with Erdogan-trying to pull Turkey away from Iran and Russia any major escalation can get out of control. China is a main player in the background-with its New Silk Road plans being destroyed by wars. Also Turkstream would suffer-Russian (and Iran) oil going to the EU via Turkey being sabotaged. A MENA (Middle East-North Africa) war would fit in US plans to control global energy and save the US-petro-$ and try to get a grip on Turkey and Saudi Arabia-but the relationship with Israel would be damaged-Israel then moving to Russia/China....Since Iran also has a role in Pakistan-both share plans for Afghanistan-China/Pakistan facing India serious escalations-usefull as distraction from failing Covid19 policies, economic collapse-one can even think of more worse scenario's. Will the divide in the US be on isolationism or never ending wars ?)  

Most of Europe wants to make deals with Russia, Iran, China-Eur-Asian trade is the future. NATO is divided on almost all issues. The US would like Ukraine to become as good as a NATO member (just like Israel is integrated in NATO eventhough not a member). The Polish elections-round two-may become very important for the EU future. If the catholic conservative extremists-backed by rural Poland-wins Poland will welcome US forces being moved from Germany, will try to stop Northstream1 and 2 Russian-German pipelines, will support Ukraine-extremists. If the Warsaw mayor wins-representing more urban, EU oriented, not that catholic, citizens, Poland may go for the Euro (another blow for the US$) and EU integration. Poland always has been trying to find a way to deal with the fact it is situated between Germany and Russia, going from confrontation to compromise...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] DJ-The number of cases in the US may be at record height, the number of deaths is not (yet). [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-suffers-record-52k-new-covid-19-cases-holiday-weekend-begins-live-updates[/url] Mexico closes its US borders, maybe they indeed will "pay for a wall" ? A rise in cases results in a rise in deaths after 4 to 6 weeks. With the US very poor expensive disfunctioning public healthcare the number of US deaths will be at record high later on this month. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] Top 5 in new cases US,Brazil,India, South Africa, Mexico. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/Whats-At-Risk-18-Month-View-of-COVID-19-Risks.jpg?itok=Ex50RZm0[/url] and [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/whats-risk-18-month-view-post-covid-world[/url] DJ-If anybody claims he/she can tell you what to expect the coming years at best they are speculating. The now known risks are clear but at present not known uncertainties can make such a difference. In a very welcome optimistic scenario one would find a cheap miracle cure against Covid19-Covid 19 would go away like snow in the sahara. And then what ? The underlying frictions still will be there. Covid19 came on top of it all. 

With the speed Covid19 is developing on january1 2021 we may have 40 to 50 million people infected with Covid19 ? Between 1 and 1.5 million deaths ? Global economies at best performing at 50% ? Wars, polution decreasing because of Covid 19 ? Maybe even some welcome positive effects on climate change ????


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2020 at 6:13am

DJ-Just short; 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] July2 saw an increase of 209,379 cases July3 saw an increase of 209,028 cases-could this be the maximum test capacity ? (No relation left with any real numbers-resulting in more severe cases/deaths in a number of weeks).

From [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ominous-disconnect-what-powell-lagarde-should-have-told-g-7[/url] ;

“The financial system has been on the verge of collapse since September 2019 when we started Repos and QE. And since then it has only got worse. The coronavirus hit us at a time when the banking system was almost down and out. 

We had enough problems saving the banks. But now we must save big corporations, small companies, individuals, local municipalities and states, the Federal State and this on top of rescuing a financial system which is deteriorating by the day. The whole system is leaking like a sieve and we are struggling to keep it all afloat. 

Fortunately we have printing presses and that helps to keep it all going but only just. Our big fear is that the market will realise that all the money we are printing is worthless. And it is of course but we can’t tell anyone. But if the world wakes up to this one day soon, the financial system could implode in a matter of days. And we would be totally helpless to stop it………”

EXPONENTIALLY WORSE THAN 2008 – A BLACK HOLE

And this dear readers is where the world stands today. On the verge of an implosion of the whole financial system. Just a small crack could push the whole system into a black hole. 

All that is needed is a severe second wave of CV-19 or a bank collapse, triggering an implosion of debt markets and the whole system.

-

WEIMAR & ZIMBABWE SQUARED IS COMING

The world’s central banks are now in the process of outshining both Weimar and Zimbabwe. Together with governments they have globally printed and borrowed $18 trillion since CV started. And since the Great Financial crisis started in 2006 they have  more than doubled global debt from $125 trillion to over $275 trillion but that is just the beginning. 

We talk about billions, trillions and quadrillions as if we understood what it means but nobody really does. It is absolutely impossible to fathom what a trillion is. Let’s start by counting to one trillion. It will take you 32,000 years. And then you would have to count very fast, never hesitate nor make a mistake – nor start from the beginning again. Ok, so the $18T just created globally, how long would that take? Almost 600,000 years. 

FED & ECB QE HAS ZERO VALUE

So clearly totally unrealistic and impossible. Whenever this magnitude of money has been manufactured before, like Weimar, it has always been totally worthless. And it is this time too!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 04 2020 at 11:39pm

DJ-When you go for a "wide range approach" of Covid19 and the background/terrain you end up whit lots of stories.

From [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/thousands-of-black-americans-take-up-arms-at-stone-mountain-georgia-july-4-2020[/url] "Black guns matter"demo at the center of kkk , and [url]https://www.rt.com/usa/493727-us-civil-war-2021/[/url] to

[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493732-big-pharma-pandemic-covid/[/url] Science-for-sale, big pharma pushing against low profit effective HCQ to sell their remdesivir with much larger profits eventhough it is not working. (That also most countries in Europe dump HCQ shows how widespread the corruption is). 

In foreign policy [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/us-moves-seize-iran-petroleum-new-tanker-group-bound-venezuela[/url] DJ Several countries are willing to sell oil to Venezuela-with a sharp drop in demand they are happy to get some money for their oil. [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493718-uk-maduro-venezuela-gold/[/url] George Galloway is correct when he claims the UK is stealing a billion$ worth of gold from Venezuela. 

Countries that see Covid19 getting out of control turn out also to be the countries that do not accept international laws. The US, UK, Brazil are criminal run states. White collar crime has become a standard for "clever bussiness" creating poverty for most to enrich a few. [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493465-coronavirus-lockdown-rich-poor/[/url] 

DJ-This mechanism, with big media  [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/493487-mr-jones-movie-press/[/url] under control of the criminal elite-keeping the masses stupid and uninformed-creating an "age of stupidity" eventhough internet could be the largest ever information source. Greed and stupidity are killing us all. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] When you go to cases per million-click on the arrow-you get cases per million. One percent of 1 million is 10.000. In this list you also find "states" like Andorra, Vatican City or San Marino-I choose to ignore mini-states. In Qatar 3,5% of the population test positive for Covid19, countries like Bahrain, another Gulf State and French Guiana-north of Brasil-get to 1,6% of their populatin testing positive. Chile 1,5, Kuwait 1,1 the USA is the first large country with almost 0,9% of the population testing positive for Covid 19. Sweden is at position #18 as the first bigger European country with 0,7%. 

(Latin) American and Gulf States are overrepresented. Of course there is a testing issue-not all tests are very good-some countries are verry active in testing. But these two "regions" jump out. Former Soviet Union States are a third region with lots of cases per million. 

There is NO international strategy to deal with Covid19 by governments. The strategy that therefor can dominate is big pharma going for more profits. Countries like Pakistan, India, Bangla Desh most likely have a very high number of cases per million that will not get tested. Same goes for failed states like Yemen, Somalia or "poor countries" in Africa, Haïti. If even in the US Covid19 is out of control than wath to expect from "the developing world" kept poor by the rich countries ? 

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/locust-swarm-reaches-nepal-east-african.html[/url] DJ-I will not be surprised to see locusts reaching Europe or even the America's (if Saharan dust is already a problem in the southern USA). 

Iran [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/the-plagues-of-iran-2020-is-hot-headed.html[/url] and [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/the-plagues-of-iran-2020-update-under.html[/url] The US want to control all the global energy in the world. Countries that do not cooperate are "criminal" so Russia, Iran, Venezuela now are the criminals-Iraq, Libya had that status earlier. Witholding even medical supplies reaching these countries is an act of inhumanity....

And yes [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/07/in-case-you-mist-it-incredible-amounts.html[/url] Japan, China also facing serious flooding...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2020 at 12:42am

Your reference to Worldmeters raises a question of what is the best metric:  Cases / million or Deaths / million?

I find I am having to use both to see what happens within a geographical region.  This clearly shows 'failed states' like Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Venezuela, by their lack of testing.    Although the surprise among countries with civil war is that Somalia is reporting higher figures than most of the other Eastern African countries.

The Arab Peninsular is interesting in that there is a wide range of testing positive ranging from 0.5% in UAE to 3.5% in Qatar. However, the number of deaths is more similar; ranging from 33 / million in UAE to 85 / million in Kuwait.  [The above ranges ignore Yemen with 0.01% cases and 11 deaths / million, as the civil war and collapsing health care system means proper testing can not be done].   It looks like in this region the death rate seems to be the more accurate statistic (and it indicates the UAE may be under reporting when compared to neighbouring countries).


For other parts of the world it seems that death rates are being suppressed and so case rates might be a better indicator (a lot of Eastern Europe and Russia seem to be in this category).  


It is hard to get a good picture when there are so many questions about the data, but we have to work from the data we have.   In this case it is kudos to WHO to get so many countries to publish data on a daily basis.  It is down in the nitty-gritty that I have respect for WHO and the solid work it does (I have less respect for the leadership which seem to me to follow political leadings rather than health leadings for major decisions).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2020 at 2:33am

EdwinSM-"Rich countries" keep ICU-cases "longer alive". They often have better technology/medication than poor countries-with low access to healthcare have. I think underreporting is a global problem-most due to under testing. 

Of course another question is what information are you looking for. The statistics available provide at least some insight on how widespread infections are. Death is an outcome. Recovery is even more "open" with many people having only light symptoms to start with-on the other sise people ending up with chronic healthissues. 

We are in the middle of the worst global healthcrisis our world may have ever seen. The Spanish Flu severity was realized after the flu had gone. 

Given the underreporting in statistics more realistic numbers could be between 2 to 10 times the tested cases. Spread in "poor countries" made the shift more likely going to 10 times tested cases. Access deaths numbers may bring more realism but also will give false impressions (less traffic accidents, lower spread of other diseases during lockdowns etc.) A lot of countries do not have good statistics here as well. 

Here in NL a lot of people that would have visited a GP under normal circumstances still fail to do so. This may increase severe cases of hearthdisease, cancers etc. that now go undetected. In a lot of other countries health care is that overstretched only very urgent cases may get some attention. Health Care itself is at risk. HCW-ers will do their best not to get infected, do their job the best they can-still with cases exploding HCW-ers will get infected, "burn-out" or break down. 

The only working solution is social distancing the best you can-but to keep a basic economy (and with that Health Care) working you need a compromise. 

There are some estimates about 50% of the global workforce may be without a job soon. QE-creating money out of thin air-should be used to provide a basic income, keep those people of the street-spreading the virus. Even that is not done....

Another major statistic missing is age distribution. On this forum there are some reports of children spreading the virus, an increase  of cases in younger age groups. A new explosion of cases in Catalunya-not far from Barcelona-is alarming because Spain already did have a serious wave-is this a new form of the virus ? 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1eUvnbvCmg[/url]  Dr. John Campbell, UK-Leicester cases imported from Pakistan ? (Pubs reopening is a stupid decission-cases will explode again).

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 05 2020 at 10:51pm

DJ-Global Covid19 situation is bad;

[url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-06/victoria-nsw-border-to-close-over-coronavirus-fears/12424686[/url] First time since the Spanish Flu. Further lockdowns a.o. in NW Spain. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] New top 3 in cases US-Brazil-India. Looking at cases per million in this list US is at place 13, Brazil 16 and India 114 (with its 1380 million + inhabitants). In the cases per million Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait jump out-lots of foreign workers from Pakistan, India, Bangla Desh.

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2020/07/06/netherlands-underestimated-coronavirus-outbreak-management-expert[/url] Most likely another 2 minkfarms did see Covid19 infections-something like 20 of the 140 farms now had infections-our government is "evaluating" (DJ-Minkfarms are a danger to public health-in less than two months 20 of the 140 farms did see infections-"jumped from human to mink" as the official explanation-do 70 of the 140 farms need to be infected before closure is ordered ?)[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/07/hundreds-demonstrate-against-covid-19-measures-in-amsterdam/[/url]

Some ZH-links [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/california-enters-deadly-wildfire-season-over-half-inmate-firefighters-under-covid[/url]

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-texas-governor-abbotts-face-mask-order-not-what-it-seems[/url] (another P&P claiming face masks go against "freedom"-insanity-this madness is a global problem)

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/central-banks-contributing-inequality-low-income-households-experience-greater-covid[/url] 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/world-suffers-record-daily-jump-new-covid-19-cases-july-4th-live-updates[/url];

Summary:

  • Texas sees record jump in hospitalizations
  • California reports jump in daily cases
  • Taj Mahal closed until further notice
  • India draws nearer to Russia amid another record jump in cases
  • World sees record jump in COVID-19 cases
  • Florida reports 9,999 new cases
  • Arizona sees roughlt 3,500 new cases
  • South Africa sees record jump in new cases
  • US reports 53k cases for Sunday
  • WHO cancels hydroxychloroquine trials
  • Russia cases near 700k
  • Japan sees another 277 new cases
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 3 hours 51 minutes ago at 10:56pm

DJ-If one looks at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] one may get a positive feeling about trends-both number of new cases (a few days ago over 200.000) and deaths (over 5000) have decreased. In the US the CDC [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/covid-19-close-losing-its-epidemic-status-us-according-cdc[/url] claims the US Covid19 epidemic is over...of course statistics can be a great way to lie. 

[url]https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-cases-rise-2-atlanta-221325077.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACm5D73A4tUEqry4ssSaESCC0KWe52E_goVcV0mA8j4nM0TzB8jxoRvTu6u-Kcz6tB7GjNWiauJs9WPGp6v5lYqXCImLF2q8zBJOpvrfJrvSAy_b_4ZcweROpZpI33ew_WBuQzvb94NDReyjuc30vwMuJLeNG9ehkL5UAgMr08Bx[/url] (DJ-Why such a long link ????)

In Brazil Bolsenaro shows Covid19 symptoms-including fever. He has been doing his best to catch the virus-maybe (like bo-jo-in the UK) this illness will mean a more realistic approach of Covid19 in Brazil. On a global scale I would still go for "out of control" as the best description. A global response is missing, NPI/lock downs does not work in poor circumstances-no income=no food=spread of virus. 

Some parts of Europe (mostly by luck-result of soom good steps that will be undone soon by reopenings), China, New Zealand, Iceland, Greenland are doing "good". In the US hospital care may collapse in some states. "Under the radar"spread in poor area's-no testing-is becoming catastrophic, we may soon see massive Covid19 refugees. 

As bad as it is-this is not realy "news"-it has been a trend for some time. 

"New"is [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1889%E2%80%931890_flu_pandemic[/url] looking at this as a possibly earlier "Covid 1889"outbreak. Also [url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-07-06/COVID-19-may-not-have-originated-in-China-existed-for-many-decades-RTIDkoNz68/index.html[/url] China welcomes the UK-Oxford scientist view Covid19 may have been around for a longer time-exploding above a certain treshold in the best-for-the-virus condition. Closer to "escaped from a Wuhan-lab" comes [url]https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/seven-year-covid-trail-revealed-l5vxt7jqp[/url].. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_229E#Signs_and_symptoms[/url], [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_coronavirus_NL63[/url] etc. may indicate a major CoViD-outbreak was just waiting to happen-no need for any lab. Historical data may have been wrong in calling outbreaks "flu" while sometimes the virus may have been a corona-virus. (DJ-Most flu-like outbreaks in the past hundreds of years may have had a flu-virus as a cause-but not all. Flu-virus samples go back to 1880-not much longer-and were found in survivors of those outbreaks in the 50's-so we may have limited info.)

Of course the economic impact of Covid19-moving into the second half of 2020-will be major. A "good thing" may be stopping/slowing down wars. 

Some other illnesses; [url]https://southfront.org/july-2020s-contender-enters-the-ring-china-reports-case-of-bubonic-plague-in-inner-mongolia/[/url], [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/addition-everything-else-now-bunny-ebola-spreading-rapidly-across-us[/url] and [url]https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/23/1921186117[/url] "pig-flu"

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mMd6D1Gw1g[/url] Ennio Morricone has reached his finale-"once upon a time"


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