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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 07 2021 at 9:56pm

DJ,

A look at numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for sunday february 7-weekend numbers. What to say ? The world will likely see 2,5 million deaths faster then the US will see 0,5 million deaths ? From other sources both France and Germany  (and US) are still in the early stages of increasing UK variants. In NL (and Belgium ?) most new cases are already the UK variant...

But reporting on variants and how they develop is poor. It is very likely the capacity to test for variants, sequencing, is much to limited worldwide to get a realistic picture. Maybe even the UK-with very good sequencing-may detect a lot of mutations but still not get a very clear picture. That should be a major concern...

Vaccination and NPI can slow down the spread-may be ending the "old variant pandemic" in some countries. But if the outcome is new variants taking over we may have to rethink strategy. 

Pressure on hospitals is decreasing in most places but still very high-and likely to increase again soon. The only "good" news is people are-in general-taking this pandemic more serious. Worldwide vaccinations are increasing but less then 2% of the global population (of 7,8 billionx2%=156 million) did get vaccinated...Even if 2 billion people did get "natural" infection we are still far away from anything close to global herd immunity...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn9NZKlEt2g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn9NZKlEt2g ;

-Based on UK Covid-tracker-app UK variant (in England, Wales, Scotland) did not see more, more severe, different symptoms then in old variant. It is however more infectious (DJ-But the R0 is depending on the local NPI and UK is showing lockdowns, masks etc can get the UK variant R0 <1). A scientific study did find the UK variant did cause 1,4 times more severe disease...DJ but based on lower numbers...in theory they could have been not representative enough data ? UK mutated variant, hospitals over capacity being over represented ? Still one should not ignore that scientific study...a "tracker app" can not replace science ! It can give much more data faster but interpretation of those numbers requires science..And again infecting more people with the carecapacity likely decreasing (because more HCW-ers get infected) still is a major problem !

-Based on tracker-app data 0,7% reported reinfection. Of 36,509 cases 249 tested positive with a three months/90 days gap between first and second positive test. So people after getting "old variant" may be having enough immunity-on average-to deal with new (not mutated) UK variant...DJ-Even if you would extrapolate this data claiming 0,7% reinfection after 90 days=1,4% after 180 days=2,8% reinfection-risk after 1 year-this is NOT science ! Conclusion can be reinfection risk after old variant for UK variant (without mutations) is "small" 

However...science is telling 0,7% reinfection after 90 days after old variant for UK variant with limited mutations towards the old variant. SA variant has much more mutations...reinfectionrisk after old variant infection for new-more mutated-variants-over a longer period may be a concern. (DJ-I speculate-after old variant infection risk of reinfection with SA variant after 360 days 5% ??? I think natural immunisation with old variant is very likely offering "a lot" of protection for most new variants...The main "problem" with this pandemic is that most people still do not have any immunity...)

-If the R0 for the old variant is 1 for the (not mutated further) UK variant the R0 is 1,35 So 100 persons would infect 100 others with old variant, but 135 with the new-not mutated further-UK variant in the same time. DJ-The timing factor is making this matters even more complex. If new variants could spread the virus longer before the first symptoms show up the R0 will go up but maybe they would infect more people over a longer period..

An example; say old variant would have R0=1 100 people would infect 100 people in a week. New variant "X" may infect also 100 people in one week but 200 in 10 days...(with old variant stop spreading after first week in first group of infected...)

-So far 100 SA variants detected in UK. Dr. John Campbell "loves to believe"(DJ) it is contained (DJ-Looking at NL lots of variants in people WITHOUT travelhistory both for SA and-limited B (Brazil) variant...suggesting limited spread of these variants-at least in NL but likely also in the UK. NPI bringing UK variant down also very likely limiting other variants..DJ But if old variant R0=1, UK variant=1,35 then SA/Brazil variants may have R0 around 1,4 or 1,5 ? NPI in UK did bring R0 for UK variant <1 (0,95 ?)-could still see slow spread of other variants...(with R0 of 1,1/1,2 ?)

Good thing UK is doing a lot of sequencing. Hope they also sequence sewage for early detection of regions with other variants increasing..

-Only limited data available from one vaccine on SA variant. AZ/O still protecting against severe disease but after AZ/O vaccine people may get "mild to moderate"illness after SA variant infection (DJ with most vulnerable very likely being in a worse situation..). 

DJ-AZ/O working on new vaccine against SA variant. Better some protection then no protection...I guess risk of reinfection after first old variant infection with SA variant will be higher then for UK variant..but still immunity may protect for severe disease...

DJ-It is very likely "other variants" are spreading around the globe-but did start with much lower numbers then UK variant. Will take more time to see "thousend of cases" of SA, B, Cal variants in most countries then UK variant needed. Another risk is mixing of those variants (in hosts) creating newer variants...

-Dr.J.C. new vaccine for variants available in autumn/fall...May need a few years global vaccination-and again vaccinating for variants. But we can get SARS-2 under control...DJ-At present-WHO-60% of vaccines going to just 10 countries...testing in most of the world still poor. Not even a basis for starting global vaccination program. (Some countries are in such chaos there is no government..). To start creating a bases we have to stop the wars (we now make possible by sending weapons). The "western idea" could be building more walls to keep migrants/variants out...of course that will prove to be a costly faillure...If there is political will we can get this pandemic under control around the globe. But many countries believe "getting the pandemic under control in their own region" is enough...

-In UK (based mostly on Pfizer vaccine) protection after first vaccination started after 12 days 53% less infections then people without (first) vaccine. It can take up to 22 days to protect against severe disease. DJ older people have a slower immune reaction that also could be less precise-not giving the 100% correct reaction after infection. 

-Netherlands/NL (info from Toon ?)-we have the UK variant dominant in NL, SA variant (40+ cases) and B variants P1 and P2 (2 and 3 cases-only 2 in people with Brazil travel history). UK variant in NL was 11-17 january 11,8% of all new cases. Based on a model 27 january-2 february 67%(+) of all new cases in NL are UK variant...Dr.J.C. 90% of new cases in NL likely to be UK variant mid-february (DJ that is this week-we are expecting slowly rise of new cases. NL has already a lot of restrictions-the coming 10 days we will be in freezing winter weather unseen for decades in NL that will influence the numbers...)

"Toon" reporting 23 SA variants in NL (I believe that number may be a bit higher-around 40 but still very limited. ) Some have SA travel link, others not..DJ-in part SA variants were found in carecenters (DJ NL has historical links with SA I believe over 100,000 Dutch passport-holders live in SA..SA HCW-ers may be working in NL in limited numbers). 

Brazil-B-variant two P1 cases with Brazil travel history, three P2 cases without Brazil travel history...

January 15 R0 total was <1 with 0,85 in NL for old variant but 1,28 for UK variant (DJ and very limited spread of both SA and B-P2 variants-sequencing in NL is "poor"-doubled to 1500 samples per week...). The Dutch CDC relaxing rules now will bring hospitals in crisis next month...Complecating factor is elections march 17...DJ Over 0,5 million people in NL did get vaccinated-is getting started after slow start-due to a.o. delivery problems...

Dr. J.C. expects what is happening now in NL to be starting elsewere later on. DJ-We are moving towards spring-NL is densely populated for the most part. (The north is less densely populated and that is one of the reasons we have so far seen lower cases there). So you can not translate the february NL picture to a Germany march, US april story...it is more complex. Around 2010 we had ICU capacity of over 2000 beds-liberal conservative rule has decreased that to 1150...Our right wing governments the last 10 years more or less destroyed the public sector (from police to public housing, public transport) with an increase of millionaires but also foodbanks running out of capacity, increasing homelessness...

-Sandy from Phoenix-downtown in Arizona on vaccination experience..This 78 old woman has a major bladder(cancer) operation february 19. Was trying to get both vaccines before february 9 (since she could get vaccination 10 days before ar after operation was against medical advice). Tried to plan vaccinations online january 10. Two vaccination-locations east or west from Phoenix..first online planning turned out to be for SECOND vaccination so she had to cancel that one..in order to fit vaccination in time frame between january 11 and february 9 (with 21 days between them) then looked further the 50 miles/80 kilometers radius...

She did get first Pfizer vaccination january 16 (in the area) and would be informed for second vaccination 21 days later. After fist shot 15 minute "power nap"lasted 3 hours (she had an early start to get to vaccination point, stress very likely-but also vaccine does ask body to do its work). She did not hear anything over second vaccination-tried by phone to get more info but was send to the website..

Last week she did get an email with invitation for second vaccination. She did get her vaccination "last saterday" (february 6 I think) three weeks after first one and in time before operation on february 19. Talking to a human would help...

DJ-In NL a lot of public transport, schools stopped due to winter-weather...still a lot of people have to go to their jobs, can not work from home. Will effect new cases numbers...

Dr. V [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0he72rlxKI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0he72rlxKI ; Dr. Duc Vuong explains why the UK variant will cause the next coronavirus surge, starting  in Florida, where conditions are ripe for a pandemic explosion.

Music ; The Four Brothers-Try to Remember [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VgHFSxsl9Y[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VgHFSxsl9Y 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 08 2021 at 9:52pm

DJ,

Looking at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ one would believe we are getting out of this pandemic-decreasing numbers in many places. A reality check; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/906523-us-uk-coronavirus-strain-b-1-1-7-is-doubling-in-the-u-s-every-10-days-study-finds-february-7-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/906523-us-uk-coronavirus-strain-b-1-1-7-is-doubling-in-the-u-s-every-10-days-study-finds-february-7-2021We found that while the fraction of B.1.1.7 among SGTF samples varied by state, detection of the variant increased at a logistic rate similar to those observed elsewhere, with a doubling rate of a little over a week and an increased transmission rate of 35-45%. By performing time-aware Bayesian phylodynamic analyses, we revealed several independent introductions of B.1.1.7 into the U.S. as early as late November 2020, with onward community transmission enabling the variant to spread to at least 30 states as of January 2021.

Our study shows that the U.S. is on a similar trajectory as other countries where B.1.1.7 rapidly became the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

And [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/906519-virginia-confirms-south-african-coronavirus-variant-case-in-adult-resident[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/906519-virginia-confirms-south-african-coronavirus-variant-case-in-adult-resident  DJ-The US-like many other countries-is seeing an increase of variants...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/906307-pandemic-started-in-us-before-2020-we-just-didn-t-know-it[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/906307-pandemic-started-in-us-before-2020-we-just-didn-t-know-it DJ-Where did Covid19 get started ? Did the US have first cases even before China ? 

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgm5n0pfQzY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dgm5n0pfQzY ;

-DJ Global increase of UK variant follows [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function "S"-shape-slow start-then up fast-to get slow at the end...DJ-Did Covid19 start this way in 2019 at several places ?) In US UK-variant-cases doubling every 8 days. If old variant R=1 UK variant between 1,35 and 1,45. Introduction in US of UK variant at several places from november 2020.

Genomic testing/sequencing DenmarK-DK=100% of new cases, UK is second worldwide-6% of cases...US is doing 0,3% of cases...DJ-variants are under the radar bacause lack of radar...Most of the world may be doing even worse then the US. So it is very likely variants are found when they show up in DK or UK...other countries get data what to look for...

DJ-Of course the US is NOT !!! on a similar trajectory as European countries. Most European countries have lockdowns, masks, social distancing..US had Super Bowl in Tampa-Florida-the US state with most reported UK variant-cases...

In Europe NPI has brought "old variant" R0 under 1- for UK variant R0 is above 1 but maybe 1,2. For the US-due to lack of restrictions-the UK variant R0 is 1,45...With in many places hospitals already overstretched the US again will get hit hard...

Dr.V also mentioned "snow-birds" people from colder parts of the US during winter to enjoy the sun in Florida-they will spread the virus further in the US (and maybe even limited into Canada ?). In Europe most borders are closed...

-South Africa stopped AZ/O vaccine "because of not being perfect against SA variant" DJ-but it is better then NOT getting vaccinated...Dr.J.C. mentions SA history of corruption. DJ-both Moderna and Pfizer-for profit-vaccines did sabotage AZ/O not for profit vaccine in the past. May go for bribes to increase profits...But also both Russia and China could be interested in SA "market"...

Dr.J.C. AZ/O vaccine is less effective against SA variant but protects against severe disease. AZ/O vaccine may have little effect on virus-spread of SA-variant. Oxford/Wit-waters-rand University study on 2000 people over 92% of cases had SA variant.

SA (and UK) variant has mutation at position 501 (NtoY)-SA variant also 484 EtoK now also showing up in UK variant (in limited numbers so far-but will increase). 

UK has 147 SA variant cases so far, DJ also in US, NL etc. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant has 36 countries that detected SA variant-since lots of countries "lack radar" very likely to be spread around the globe..."Dr.J.C. hopes we can stop the spread"-DJ not very realistic...good news is vaccines do offer some protection. Newer vaccines (within months) will offer better protection...still by that time there will be more newer variants...

Oxford/Witwatersrand study AZ/O vaccine only between 10 and 22% protection against SA variant ...???? DR.J.C. However AZ/O may protect against severe disease. Novavax and J&J vaccine offers 50/60% protection against SA variant (but in people with HIV+ 49%)

Dr.J.C.vaccines may not help for getting herd immunity against SA variant but will protect against severe disease.

-DJ-reports of side effects on vaccines have to be limited because we are still in early stages. Reports now on Pfizer vaccines in HCW-ers and some reports on vaccines in older people...but limited data-mild symptoms. Previous infection may give more effects because immune system is reactivated...Mild complaints are welcome-shows body reacting-creating immunity..

Men 13% Women 19% side effects-may indicate women get better immunization. Under 55 y/o also have more side effects and immunity response. (But 55 y/o+ also will get protection-but may take three weeks-55-Y/o could get protection after two weeks).

Vaccines do protect against severe disease-so far also in variants-even SA variant. But to get pandemic under control NPI more effective ! Herd immunity will take more time !

DJ-There will be newer variants-NPI may slow them down-buy us time...I think Dr.J.C. is over-optimistic on vaccines and herd immunity for the short term. The basics for vaccinating the global population is not there. There also is no political will. A lot of countries will further close their borders for migrants/refugees...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmENMZFUU_0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TmENMZFUU_0 It ain't over till it's over...




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 09 2021 at 9:28pm

DJ,

-In NL the R0 for the UK variant went from 1,28 january 15 to 1,13 on january 22. NPI does reduce the transmission of new variants.  Due to winterweather there will be less testing, less vaccination-so increased risk of more underreporting of cases. Winter will also become an issue on the southern hemisphere soon. It has been summer in South Africa, Australia, Argentina, Chile...winter will very likely bring more cases/variants in those regions...With increased risks for "weird weather" (snow in Brazil ?) climate collapse may become an increasing risk factor.

On the SA variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant ; On 8 February 2021, Austria detected the greatest outbreak of 501.V2 variant in Europe so far. A total of 293 confirmed cases and 200 suspected cases have been identified through sequencing, most of them will be confirmed in all probability. All of the cases were found in the Tirol region, where nearly 9% of the positive PCR tests were indentified as the 501.V2 variant by sequencing.[55] The active cases were estimated at around 140. After a week of public discussion and political pressure about a possible quarantine of Tirol, the government of Austria abstained from isolating the areas of concern, instead making a formal plea to reduce movement in and out of the region and go for testing after visiting Tirol.[56] Tirolean officials stated their intention to relax the lockdown rules in Tirol as in the rest of Austria

DJ-NPI can get also variants under control. Vaccines can protect-in most cases-against severe disease. I think it is important to see the two different goals. 

On the short term there will not be herd immunity via vaccination anywhere-not even in Israel ! We NEED NPI ! to get out of this pandemic. My guess for the SA variant in NL the R0 may be somewhere between 1,2 and 1,3. But since it still are isolated cases we may be able to contain it long enough to stop the spread. 

The UK variant is now widespread around the globe and within a month will be the dominant form of Covid19 in many places. 

-A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  for february 8. New cases low worldwide, deaths high. Maybe delayed reporting from a.o. the UK (333 deaths on february 7-on feb.8 that got above 1000 again ?) Spain did get over the 3 million cases mark. In the top 20 for new cases 9 European countries (including Russia and Turkey) show up. Five Latin American countries also in top 20.

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnnLZAMH_ho[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SnnLZAMH_ho ; (info/links under the video)

 -Why new outbreak in Manaus/Amazonia/Brazil ?  Lancet-study. Combination of factors;

1 Herd immunity was not 76% from previous infections (hardly any testing) .

The 76% came from october 2020 testing of Manaus blood donors..not representative of total population (often the poor selling blood). Manaus supposed to have had a R0 of 3 during first Covid-wave. DJ Putting "a model" over an "estimate" may give wrong results ! (In NL end of january UK variant was supposed to be close to 70% of all new cases-based on a model. Latest testresults indicate we may be getting close to 60% of all cases being UK variants around today-models are far from perfect !) Idea of herd immunity at 67% maybe to optimistic ?

2 Immunity does not last long enough.

Peak of first wave in Manaus was april/may 2020-so gap of around 8 months. Immunity should last longer-may become a bit less but not allow severe illness/death. DJ-That immunity for SARS-1 (from 2003) lasts for decades does not mean you may expect that for SARS-2. SARS-1 was very limited both in regions, numbers and time...SARS-2 may have been able to infect over 1 billion hosts...Also milder/a-symptomatic infection may give less immunity.

3 New variants evade immunity.

(B)P1 variant detected january 12 in Manaus-also UK variant and B (Brazil) P2 variant detected. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1 Anti-genic escape means antibodies/immunity does not work (well enough) to recognize the variant. Both P1 and P2 have the E484K mutation (also seen in SA variant and in a limited numbers of mutating UK variants). Due to E484K mutation it turns out people may get reinfected. (DJ-Also vaccines less effective-but very likely to still offer some protection). 

4 Increased transmission of new variants, R0 value higher then old variants.

R0 of P1 in december in Manaus 1,42...Just like UK and SA variant higher R0. Spreads faster (via higher viral load in upper respitory system eventhough the claim is variants do not cause more severe disease. Higher viral load=more severe disease ! Also higher number of cases with same or less hospital capacity (due to HCW-ers getting ill) means more severe cases/deaths pure by numbers..

(DJ factor 5 may be high migration of population. Part of Manaus population is gold-diggers, traders, etc-do follow the money-so at least 10%+ of population in january 21 was not in Manaus in the summer of 2020).

Dr.J.C. puts a "Yes!" at points 1, 3 and 4-He believes immunity does last long enough to offer protection against variant-reinfection. DJ-I am not an expert at all, do not have a medical background. If I would make a guess I would go for percentages;

Factor1-herd immunity idea was based on hardly any testing so maybe up to 50% of second large outbreak in Manaus woul explain that. #2-Immunity may not be strong enough-in my opinion should be needing another look. How well protected are you after asymptomatic/mild infection ? 10% #3 and #4 mutations creating less immune response and higher R0 together 30% and in my opinion #5-overlooked is high mobility of the 2 million people in Manaus region could explain another 5% with "other factors" (#6) also 5%. 

I think reinfections are not unique to Brazil-Manaus. We may see it in Israel with the UK variant, in South Africa-SA variant...New variants-now in early stages-will become a problem in autumn. Dr.J.C. is correct in "we" have to stop spreading the variants..But he is wrong in the "we"...Most of us stopped flying, travel, use masks etc. The "we" he is referring to is an elite believing to be above the law. That elite is in sport-activities around the globe, but also government-officials that "do have to meet"at sunny locations...A rich elite skiing in Colorado or the Alps...On the other side poor people do not get room for self isolation. The food this evening has to be earned this day...poverty is increasing due to this pandemic. 

From [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/849821-pig-watch-thread-research-finds-pigs-are-susceptible-to-sars-cov-2/page5[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/849821-pig-watch-thread-research-finds-pigs-are-susceptible-to-sars-cov-2/page5

Bombay News (Oct 2020): Research links industrial pig farming and virus outbreaks

  • Researchers have found a surprising correlation in Brazil, the U.S. and Germany: areas with more pigs also have higher COVID-19 infection rates (in humans)

These outbreaks, along with China’s global leadership as a pork producer, caught the attention of three researchers who started looking into the matter: Larissa Mies Bombardi, a geography professor at the University of São Paulo (USP), German pharmacist Immo Fiebrig, and Pablo Nepomuceno, a technician at USP’s Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Geoprocessing...China is the world’s largest pork producer, and Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, is one of China’s five largest pork producers...

DJ [url]https://news.mongabay.com/2020/10/research-links-industrial-pig-farming-and-virus-outbreaks/[/url] or https://news.mongabay.com/2020/10/research-links-industrial-pig-farming-and-virus-outbreaks/ DJ-If bats needed a "bridge" to get SARS-2/Covid19 in humans it could have been via pigs ? Those pigs may not get sick themselves from the virus but may get infected and transmit the virus ????

DJ-This Covid19 virus-spread may have started (in 2019 or even earlier ?) at several places in the world ? (Since by now at several places, US, France, there are indications of Covid19 prior to major China outbreak. Maybe Wuhan military games october 2019 did increase the spread but the basics may have been earlier-via bats into pigs ?  

Music The Supremes I Hear A Symphony 1965 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpL1TTxffO0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpL1TTxffO0 [url]https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/09/entertainment/mary-wilson-supremes-death/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/09/entertainment/mary-wilson-supremes-death/index.html 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 1:57am

DJ,

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-reduces-spread-risk-even-before-2nd-shot-israeli-study-suggests/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/vaccine-reduces-spread-risk-even-before-2nd-shot-israeli-study-suggests/ ; “Our results show that infections occurring 12 days or longer following vaccination have significantly reduced viral loads,” wrote a multi-institution research team that crunched data from the Maccabi healthcare provider, stating they believe that could be important in “potentially affecting viral shedding and contagiousness as well as severity of the disease.”

The viral load was shown to be reduced fourfold on average for infections occurring 12 to 28 days after the first dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

The study was based on all positive post-vaccination samples taken between December 23 and January 25, and tested at Maccabi’s central laboratory. Patients who had a positive sample prior to vaccination were excluded.

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-virus-variants-raise-concern-over-covid-19-reinfections/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-virus-variants-raise-concern-over-covid-19-reinfections/

Evidence is mounting that having had COVID-19 may not protect against getting infected again, with some of the new variants. People also can get second infections with earlier versions of the coronavirus if they mounted a weak defense the first time, new research suggests.

How long immunity lasts from natural infection is one of the big questions in the pandemic. Scientists still think reinfections are fairly rare and usually less serious than initial ones, but recent developments around the world have raised concerns.

-

In the United States, a study found that 10% of Marine recruits who had evidence of prior infection and repeatedly tested negative before starting basic training were later infected again. That work was done before the new variants began to spread, said one study leader, Dr. Stuart Sealfon of the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York.

“Previous infection does not give you a free pass,” he said. “A substantial risk of reinfection remains.”

Reinfections pose a public health concern, not just a personal one. Even in cases where reinfection causes no symptoms or just mild ones, people might still spread the virus. That is why health officials are urging vaccination as a longer-term solution and encouraging people to wear masks, keep physical distance, and wash their hands frequently.

DJ-Vaccinations-in Israel-with lots of experience-seem to reduce variants spreading. Natural immunity may provide less protection often. 

[url]https://www.rt.com/news/515087-jerusalem-orthodox-protest-covid-israel/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/515087-jerusalem-orthodox-protest-covid-israel/ DJ-Reinfections may be very likely to be found more often in (a.o.) orthodox groups. Reinfections may also be cause of new variants. While vaccination may reduce the risk of infection from some variants-it may increase vaccine-evading mutated variants. Also other hosts (animals) getting no/mild symptoms remain a high risk for variants. 

[url]https://www.rt.com/usa/515094-wuhan-who-us-intel-covid-findings/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/usa/515094-wuhan-who-us-intel-covid-findings/ DJ-The WHO China team may not come with a story some want to use in anti-China propaganda. "Politics" has become a dirty word in this pandemic-basicly politics failed.

DJ-Allthough it is good news vaccinations will slow down virus/variants spread on the short term vaccinations will NOT give herd immunity !!! Israel is doing the best in vaccinating-but even there getting all of the (Israeli) population vaccinated twice may take till summer. Import of cases/variants will pose a risk. Vaccinations do decrease risk of severe infection-help to keep healthcare/hospitals going. But lockdowns/(travel)restrictions have to do the short term job on keeping variant numbers down in the coming months. 

Israel may be getting in some pandemic safety by summer. Most other-rich-countries will need more time. Since the US population is over 331 million-vaccinating a million per day will take up to a year...

Poor countries hardly have any testing, forget about sequencing. In the "real-hard-reality" those countries will get even more isolated. This will mean in these countries still millions of people will get infected and die. (But since not being tested stay out of statistics). Variants will show up in those countries...creating further global risks. 

In dealing with "orthodox" groups (Jewish, Christian, anti-vax etc) there is likely less tolerance-meaning orthodox groups ending up in "isolated area's" with no travel being allowed. 

Reopening to soon will remain a problem. Politics still go for false paradox between "economy" or "health"...learning goes very slow.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndyPOW Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 7:03am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

 -Why new outbreak in Manaus/Amazonia/Brazil ?  Lancet-study. Combination of factors;

1 Herd immunity was not 76% from previous infections (hardly any testing) .

2 Immunity does not last long enough.

3 New variants evade immunity.

4 Increased transmission of new variants, R0 value higher then old variants.

Factor1-herd immunity idea 


Why so much dependence on the idea of herd immunity? When have humans developed herd immunity against a coronavirus?

This isn't going away, life is not going back to normal. That is a canard put out by officials to keep a lid on a restless public.

"Every thing looks great, until you think." Dr. Al Bartlett
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 11:04am

Yep, think you're right there, Andy.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 10:28pm

DJ,

Herd-immunity...it is the goal of vaccination to get herd-immunity (via vaccination) at least within a country. Do I think we will get global herd immunity-no. Do we get local herd immunity-maybe-Israel may get there if they manage to keep borders closed, variants out (or contained). 

When I look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (for january 10) I notice numbers-worldwide-are increasing again. Most countries still do have strong NPI, lockdown, masks, social distancing etc. often for weeks. That did bring the number of new cases down-for a time...

Better, for this pandemic "harder" communications made people aware of the risks of Covid19 infection. I think the number of people claiming Covid19 is a hoax did get a lot smaller...

Many countries are reopening, vaccinations are slowing down often supply related but in Israel-after vaccinating 40%+ of the population the vaccination campain now is dealing with less motivated citizens. I think we are moving towards another healthcrisis. 

In the UK two new variants on the UK variant (Bristol and Liverpool) both have the 484 mutation. In Austria close to 500 people may have been infected with the SA variant in Tirol-close to the border with Germany, Switzerland, Italy..a main transport link...

A word I like/hate is "prevention-paradox"...Preventing an outbreak by early lockdown could have stopped this pandemic. But if there is no problem-because of early action-why such "drastic action" was needed ? It is the way politics seem to work in many countries-first the preventable disaster providing an excuse for action...insane !

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hc9apjRpbgg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hc9apjRpbgg (DJ-He has good info but tends to be over-optimistic...)

-Dr.J.C. looks at statistics-cases decreasing in UK, US, Portugal, Canada...DJ-NPI (Non Pharma Intervention) is effective against also new variants...It would be very welcome if it would stop the spread of new variants-but it does not do that. In the US, Canada, a lot of other countries the old-variant cases are decreasing-but limited-for now-new variant cases are increasing. So it is a phase..

Also other variants have all the room to spread. In the US 0,3% (3 out of 1000 cases !!!) are being sequenced...(and sequencing, reading the RNA-can mean looking at around a 100 main mutation risks or looking at all the 29,300 segments of the RNA string of Covid19..Reading just 100 of the "main points" means you can "read" all the new cases-may be Denmark (DK) is doing that-going for the 100%. The UK goes for sequencing 6% of new cases but may look at all of the RNA segments...both have pro's and con's but in combination they give a lot of info. Bad part of the story is the UK and DK together do 50% of all global sequencing...so most of the cases/variants go under the radar...)

-In the UK early results of vaccination show up. DJ There they started vaccinating the 80+ y/o from early december-most of them must have had two vaccinations and enough time to get immunity...Still end of january in England 1,55% of population testing positive.

DJ The UK variant is supposed to be 45% more infective. Old variant R0=1 UK variant=1,45. The SA variant has more mutations-in that story old variant R0=1 SA variant=1,6 ? Brazil and mutating UK variant between 1,45 and 1,6...It is very likely in the UK NPI and vaccinations did bring the old variant and very likely "old" UK variant under 1-so stopping the spread...some other variants-with very limited numbers-are still spreading...Again reopening to fast will give another surge in cases...history keeps repeating itself...

-Some other statistics. Second highest week in number of deaths-end of january (over 8000 UK deaths) 45% of UK deaths were from Covid 19. So other causes-still in a bad week for Covid deaths-were 55%. Of those deaths 75% were in 75+y/o..of new cases 53% had no symptoms...DJ-CDC statistics indicate 60% a/pre symptomatic spread-but often people get tested after showing symptoms-a lot of cases and spread is missed in that way...DJ We need to improve testing ! A lot of spread, over 50%, still goes undetected !

-Dr.J.C. looks at CDC US data-cases decreasing (now on level of early october), deaths still high. UK variant 167 cases in Florida, 122 in California (Helix-CDC project) Georgia 21, other US states less then 10 UK variants detected and reported.  But only showing cases in 15 US states-other info did report UK variants in already 40 US states-and that info may already be a week old...DJ-Again CDC running far behind the facts ? Very likely making the same mistake Dr.J.C. makes "going for the evidence" even knowing that info is old ! You know UK variant is spreading so act on that fast-spreading NOT looking for yet an other excuse for in-action based on old data !

-Somehow Dr.J.C. questions if the variants will increase in the US ? Bizarre ! Absurd ! Unbelievable ! Of course variants will increase in the US !!!!! In percentage the UK did vaccinate more of its population then the US-they still are not out of variant problems with lots of restrictions..In the US some states hardly have restrictions, others "opening up" so-within a month US cases will "explode" due to all kinds of variants...somehow Dr.J.C. "needs to see evidence"...please !

-Vaccination data-US 10% of population at least 1 vaccination, UK 18%...Dr.J.C. has a point in asking why Russia and China are that slow in vaccinations-while exporting vaccines. DJ-Proberbly largest vaccine exporter is India-itself also hardly vaccinating-There is a campain for 300 million vaccinations in 3 months (on a population of over 1,388 million)-the large numbers of people to be vaccinated is a big problem. 

-Serbia and Hungary importing/using vaccines from Russia and China. Serbia at #5 in percentage of population being vaccinated 8%. Dr.J.C. claims he wants to keep geo-politics out-why he then puts geo-politics in ? DJ-The Lancet did take a look at Sputnik-5. The producers of Sputnik-5 worked with AstraZeneca...Sputnik-5 and AZ/O may have a lot in common. It would be good if "politics" would be limited in making matters worse...China is exporting vaccines-there are some questions on how good they are. It would be welcome to get more info on that-independent from China...But vaccines and NPI have to get us out of this mess-politics did get us into it...

-WHO team in Wuhan/China. Dr.J.C. expected a lot of info during that visit ? Realy ? DJ-It is a step in a proces to learn more. it took decades to discover how the Spanish Flu got started-it is very likely it will take years to learn more on how this Covid19/SARS-2 pandemic had its beginnings...we know that not stopping air travel, closing borders made this virus a pandemic...

-DJ-The WHO team-made up from international top-virologists/epidemiologists-did learn there were 90 Covid-like cases in central China in october 2019. Dr.J.C. should be above insulting this team of experts trying to at least get some info from China...

Other 'politics" Russia "real" number of Covid deaths is much higher-if you would inculde excess deaths...But the definition of Covid deaths is different in every country-that is why Belgium is over represented...In NL excess deaths numbers would bring the Covid19 deaths over 22,000 with less then 15,000 reported as "official Covid19 deaths"...South Africa may be at 125,000 Covid deaths with just over 47,000 deaths being reported as Covid deaths...

I (DJ) can only hope experts-a.o. via the WHO and many other ways-can do research on how this pandemic started without "politicians going populist"...I think there is a relation with the African Swine Flu of 2018/19 that did see many pigs die in Asia. Corona-virusses in pigs are a known problem....It would be welcome if Dr. J.C. could give more info on that...

DJ-I do have limited history background-do not claim to be "neutral"...The Chinese claim/warning for virus-transport via frozen (food)products in my opinion needs investigating. Haïti did see a cholera-epidemy via cholera-by mail to Nepal UN forces in Haïti. 

Confrontation may not be the way to get more info from China-cooperation may be more productive. Also Russia may be able to learn more...(or Iran, Israel..) Politics did get this pandemic out of control-experts-worldwide-have to get it under control...

Music-maybe more productive then Dr.J.C. conservatism...The Covid Cello Project [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nTSJoxTgos[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nTSJoxTgos Adagio-Bach (started by a cellist in Austin Texas-US. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 10 2021 at 11:24pm

Josh, thanks for all the work you put into this.

People have noticed cases are dropping, but the death rate still has to follow....yesterday there were still 1.8 deaths per million in one day based on worldwide (under reported) testing.  This is still a very high rate and the variants have not yet kicked in in much of the world.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 1:27am

EdwinSm, thank you for your thank you !

One of the reasons why I am doing this "scenario's" is frustration, anger over bad/no info communications. I started my first post january 28-2020 with; DJ-The number of corona-virus-infections seem to go exponential the last few days.

-In the best scenario the virus will develop away from humans. Even then this outbreak will be (much) worse than the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_East_respiratory_syndrome outbreak.
At the very best the number of deaths will stay under the 2-3000-most of them in China.

Already this outbreak is effecting global trade, will increase the risk of a global economic depression.

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/virus-update-for-u-s-a-worst-public-health-disaster-in-100-years

The worst case scenarios would bring is near the https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_fluscenario-or worse.

One of the many steps to influence the outcome is how to deal with international travel. Finally most countries admit that going to China now is not such a good idea. This is late-it would have been wiser if such a decision was made at least a few days earlier.

A major difference from the Spanish Flu (1918-1923) is the speed of transport. The new corona-virus will lift with planes, high speed trains etc. The rate of spread of this virus will be much faster than the Spanish Flu.

DJ-Yes the WHO had not declared it a pandemic then-and WHO did make a lot of mistakes. But there is not yet a real alternative for the WHO on global health cooperation. When I look at "sources for news" ZeroHedge, Peak Prosperity had some good info some times...

Does China cooperate enough ? I do not know that-maybe they themselves have not that much more info...It is an illusion to believe ANY country to be 100% transparent in a major global catastrophic event...When you think of why the "Spanish" flu was named Spanish-Spain being neutral in World War 1-but that pandemic may have links to US, China, Austria one should be carefull in "getting political".

Does this pandemic have geo-political consequences ? Yes-but that proces already did started before the pandemic ! If most goods are produced in China-due to outsourcing, cheap labor costs, western companies using Chinese work ethics (Some Chinese think working 60-70 hrs per week is acceptable...) one should not "blame" China for a shift in global balances...

India is the global pharma giant. Somehow less a problem. Some economists expect China and India to be the #1 and #2 economy in the world-DJ with the EU being #3-by 2030. As always the world is changing. Climate collapse did not stop-may be a major factor in (future) pandemics...also economic inequality is a major factor. Poor people want to improve their situation...I do not blame them. It is a big shame countries are kept poor...The pandemic is hitting much harder-without serious testing-in countries "we keep poor". 

Flutrackers is a "good source" of information-today they have 11 pages with new postings...From a few Chinese reports on imported frozen food with Covid19 on/in it to [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/906802-b-1-351-lineage-report-a-k-a-20h-501y-v2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/906802-b-1-351-lineage-report-a-k-a-20h-501y-v2 ...

When I look at my own ideas-more cases increase risk of mutations/variants turned out to be correct...and we may have only just begun...Another aspect of this pandemic is the continuation of "stupidity" of politics, media and "some groups". I respect peoples beliefs-even if that in my opinion will have consequences. If you do not want social distancing, vaccines, masks etc-it is OK...but then you have to live in a restricted area and we may take away all children under 18 to at least protect them...

Yes-"numbers are decreasing"-great ! Variants are increasing-somehow does not get the press...The chances of getting this pandemic under control if we do not (want to) get the variants under control are ZERO ! Allthough on the long term also SARS-2 will develop into milder disease-for now-variants at least are spreading faster (there is discussion on more severe disease). Higher numbers with less hospital/healthcare=more severe cases/deaths-it is very simple !

Healthcare is our first line of defense-and if we keep pushing by not enough NPI, "saving the economy" etc-healthcare will collapse ! History does learn us how societies collapsed..somehow "history does not fit in people's thinking"? Why history-even recent-is being ignored ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/906653-viruses-similar-to-sars-cov-2-have-been-circulating-for-decades-including-in-cambodia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/906653-viruses-similar-to-sars-cov-2-have-been-circulating-for-decades-including-in-cambodia ;

Febr 10, 2021

If the SARS-CoV-2 group originated in Southeast Asia, it could explain why humans in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam appear to be much less affected.

In November and December 2010, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization and Cambodian authorities invited researchers from the Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle in Paris to explore several sites in northern Cambodia. The goal was to study the biodiversity of bats near the Temple of Preah Vihear, and a large number of bats species were caught during this survey, including eight types of horseshoe bat (genus Rhinolophus).

They are of great interest for virologists, as they are the reservoir of all Sarbecoviruses, the group of coronaviruses that includes SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, respectively responsible for the SARS epidemic in 2002-2004 and the current Covid-19 pandemic.

In 2020, 10 years after the expedition, the samples stored in a freezer at -80°C were taken out and tested by the Institut Pasteur of Cambodia to look for Sarbecoviruses.

A PCR test showed two positive results and a full sequencing of their genome started. Two variants of a virus close to SARS-CoV-2 were discovered in two bats of the species Rhinolophus shameli we captured in 2010 in a cave in the province of Steung Treng.

The Covid-19 crisis taught the world that keeping immense numbers of small carnivores in captivity is a major health risk: viruses can spread and evolve rapidly in breeding facilities, potentially producing more contaminating or more dangerous variants. As pangolins and small carnivore species were frequently stored and sold together in wet markets, a “snowballing effect” due to interspecies viral transmission could be the last step in starting the human Covid-19 pandemic.

DJ-The way we produce meat is a major problem-but we do not want to hear that...SARS-2 like virusses in SE Asia does not fit into "the blame-China agenda"....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 10:16am

Yes, Josh I echo the thanks for all this work you put in day in and day out.  You are providing a lot of info that I am not getting elsewhere.

As you indicate, cases are again beginning to rise.  I am seeing that in my area.  And the UK variant was identified here a few days ago.  Hang on, it's about to get bumpy!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 11 2021 at 10:30pm

ViQueen24, thanks for the positive feedback-always welcome !

DJ

Yesterday NL reported over 4000 new cases-a higher number then we had here than in the last weeks . Still that number reflects delayed testing/reporting due to winter weather earlier this week-on sunday, monday lots of testing was not possible. So an increase of cases does have lots of reasons...experts expect the UK variant increasing cases in NL at the end of this month. Maybe from february 20...NL has relative strict rules-the old variant R0 has been below 1 for a few weeks. The UK variant R0 is above 1 (but likely below 1,2-may also depend on the region. May be above 1,2 in some urban area's with younger population-even below 1,1 in sub-urban area's with an older population living in larger houses with children out of the house...).

In Germany Angela Merkel tried to push for a lockdown till march 14. Since Germany is a federal republic the states have power to make their own decissions. So there was a compromise-national lockdown till march 7-states decide on reopening schools. Most shops etc. will remain closed...

There is growing pressure for reopenings for social reasons. Not all the people are the same-some young people need to meet-and it is time to have a plan for that-like "social bubbles" limiting the number of contacts etc...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ When you look at the statistics for february 11 Israel again showing high numbers of infections....Over 40% of the population did get vaccinated. There have been large outbreaks in Israel earlier. DJ-Variants may be evading vaccine/natural immunity in Israel. 

What Israel makes interesting is also (orthodox) minorities, Palastinians maybe not being vaccinated (if they do not have an Israel passport) and politics-in a permanent crisis....DJ-It looks like vaccinations may not stop the variants on their own. NPI and vaccinations can slow down the spread. Vaccination may prevent from severe disease (so far). 

What I do NOT like is worldwide there still is no long term strategy...jumping from one short term plan to another while we have been in this global healthcrisis for over a year...And yes-it is difficult ! But one conclusion by now has to be stop air travel ! So do not put trillions in tax-help in airlines ! 

In many ways governments are treating this crisis as "a bussiness oppertunity" not as a crisis that could end civilization. Just like the climate crisis opened the doors for "green alternatives" that are not that much better, this pandemic increased market value for big pharma...The Titanic is sinking but I love the music the orchestra is still making...

If you take exponential functions serious-and one should !!!- the mix of crisis will increase speed. There is every reason to go for maximum brakes-but somehow "our leaders"do not see the wall coming...

Dr.J.C. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-9Bj-T0Dtc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-9Bj-T0Dtc DJ-Dr.J.C. claims to be not political but inviting a conservative member of parliament on vitamin D, more or less mistrusting anythingh from Russia, China because it comes from Russia or China is damaging him...I am not neutral-I do not claim to be neutral ! But I hate hidden political agenda's, Dr. J.C. claims going for evidence but ignores evidence shows up after the fact...The way he approaches this pandemic makes him running behind the facts...the way "experts" keep running behind the facts. 

I have a very limited background in history so I look at this pandemic from a different side...Dr.J.C.;

-Great 3D plastic printed "things" for behind the head to make a mask in position-if your ears do not give enough support. Also a "face cover" closing the side of the masks to keep viral loads inside the mask...DJ-The CDC now seriously claims it is a good idea to "put a mask over a mask" -Germany, Austria are now demanding medical-better-masks...(DJ-I try to avoid social mixing even more).  https://twitter.com/PlasticFull Great idea ! Dr.J.C. also looks at CDC-mask side...do NOT wear two disposable masks over eachother...Also a mask under the nose is not helpfull...(DJ-But may indicate more need for better communications-when I look at Dutch "news" info on this pandemic is poor..Do people want to be informed or entertained ?)

-In the US dr.Fauci-from april enough vaccines to start vaccinating all-could be seeing some herd immunity after summer...DJ-To be realistic-problem in US, worldwide, is the number of people and the way we vaccinate. Maybe by now the US did vaccinate 40 million people-of the 331 million-so 291 million to go-if you would like to get to some sort of "vaccine herd immunity" you may need to be able to give 10 million vaccination per day in the US-certainly if most vaccines need TWO vaccinations...

DJ-Even if those vaccines would provide 90% protection against variants (unrealistic optimistic..) still 10% -for the US over 33 million people-still be less protected...So even in this unrealistic optimistic scenarion there still would be some need for NPI for those most vulnarable AFTER a 100% vaccination of almost all US citizens...

The claim was between 60/70% of population vaccinated would give herd immunity for the old variant. For new variants it would be 80%+. Vaccination would provide close to 95%-was the claim-against old variants-I think it may be realistic protection could be 60% against newer variants around end of summer (by that time the UK variant will have peaked). 

The only "good news"is virusses tend to get milder over time. This CoViD19 will develop towards a common cold at the end...but for now it is getting worse-not better !

-Russia (Dr.J.C. did take criticism on being Russia-phobic serious) is doing good. New cases end of december over 30,000 per day-now 15,000. In Russia internet searches for Covid-symptoms going down as well (In Wuhan China those searches around september 2019 indicated there was a problem). Dr.J.C. is getting a lot of his info on Russia from [url]https://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/s-9097[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/s-9097 (German government news agency). 

Why numbers decreasing in Russia ? 1 Natural immunity-Russia managed to keep numbers down during first wave, but was hard hit later on in 2020-DJ so "immunity is fresh" (In Manaus Brazil "immunity was 9 months old-not strong enough ?) 2 Vaccination low numbers but Sputnik-5 is effective (DJ-Russia may not have followed the "western way" but there may be other ways then just "the west"...Putin had one of his daughters accepting vaccination (DJ-As far as I know Putin has two daughters-is divorced. One of his daughters is married to a Dutch man and living near The Hague..Dutch-Russian links go back to Czar Peter the Great...Petersburg was based on Amsterdam, the Russians even did get their flag from NL...Merkel has no daughters-is married-studied in the GDR/East Berlin chemistry is fluent in Russian-like Putin is fluent in German since he was a KGB agent in East Germany)..

3 Low population density DJ-The largest city in Europe-one of the larger cities worldwide-is Moscow ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_metropolitan_area[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_metropolitan_area Of the almost 146 million Russians 20 million live in the Moscow Area. (DJ-Some estimates put the number for the larger Moscow region at 30 million) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_and_towns_in_Russia_by_population[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_and_towns_in_Russia_by_population DJ-Looking at statistics "low population density" simply is wrong ! Russia is a large country but most Russians live in 15 cities with over 1 million in population...4 Free (DJ-but basic) healthcare (DJ corruption in Russia is a major problem-if you are rich you can get good healthcare..) 5 Lower life expectency (DJ-Smoking still an issue in Russia-men often alcohol problem, enviroment and working conditions not "very good". Traffic is a horror story...) -so if there are not many people over 70 y/o they will less be getting Covid19-died from other causes...

Dr.J.C. puts a ? at why numbers go down in Russia (and India, some other countries) because the most obvious factors can not explain all of it...A younger population (so more mild/a-symptomatic cases=still herd immunity ?) and maybe other infections boosting immunity against Covid19 are factors. (DJ-Dr.J.C. still claims Covid19 is not a major issue in Africa while the problem is lack of testing/reporting...the African CDC claims the Covid19 numbers for Africa are above the global average..) 

Very limited NPI in Russia, large vaccination campains (DJ-Do the register/report vaccinations ? Do we-in the west-have a realist insight in vaccinations in Russia, China, India ?)

DJ-I notice Dr.J.C. notices "synergy" between AZ/O and Sputnik-V developers..free vaccinations at over 100 locations-with free ice cream-also for non-Russians..

-Russia would like to vaccinate 60% of its population in 2021 but willingness to get vaccinated is limited (DJ-Partly due to western "news/propaganda"..) Moscow did vaccinate over 400.000..Dr.J.C. now very positive about Sputnik-V (he calls it "the Russian vaccine" Russia is working on more vaccines...). DJ-Nice to see some realism on Russia from Dr.J.C....

-Germany, Merkel warning for new wave due to variants. Dr.J.C. fears new variants will do more damage in Germany, France then in the US. US doing better in vaccinations...DJ-Europe is doing better in NPI...Vaccinations offer limited protection in early stages...US may be missing a lot of variants spreading. I think the US will be hit harder then Europe by variants..

German-Austria border closed. In Tirol SA variant widespread...DJ-Closing borders in Europe may stop the spread. But next week school-holliday still a lot of people may ignore "advice" and go-"saving the economy" skiing in the Alps...Also carnaval did get "a different face" but still may see newcases...China New Year also possible mass-spread event but in China strict travel restrictions do stop a lot of the spread..

Dr.J.C. because Europe is slow in vaccination Europe "may need another month of lockdown"...DJ I hope that countries with lots of vaccinations still will go for some NPI for the time beeing...(When you look at Israel one has to get the message that high vaccine/natural immunity still can combine with high number of new cases...!)

-Dr.J.C. also mentions "sister Andre"-in south of France- getting 117-recovered from Covid-infection. She did survive the Spanish Flu, two world wars...DJ-In the older population immune reaction may take three weeks to become effective-for younger persons two weeks is enough...Could it be that in the very old infection itself may be very slow as well ? So actions to slow down the infection may have better chance of succes ? 

DJ-Overall-my impression is there will be another global wave of infections in this pandemic in the coming months...Variants are spreading, the UK variant may be dominant next month worldwide...Vaccination is not widespread enough to stop that new wave...Also vaccinated people may have better protection-but still may get some symptoms. Since the R0 of new variants is higher then the old variant-and hospitals still have a lot of cases-hospitals will face another crisis worldwide...

The SA variant is getting widespread in Europe slowly-will follow the UK (mutating) variant...could be dominant this summer...(with Brazil and California variant-all three better at spreading in summer-like conditions). New variants are very likely already there-we just have not detected enough of them to name them...

Dr.J.C.believes "we will be in this pandemic for more seasons" I think translating that to we will not get out of this pandemic this year is realistic...It is good there are new vaccines, old vaccines made to deal with new variants...Also on the long term CoViD-19 will become milder...but we are not there yet...

Music; Annie Lennox-Dido's Lament [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3DFaIovZxc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3DFaIovZxc in solidarity with Greenpeace...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 5:09am

DJ,

-Recombination could explain how corona-virus in bats jumped to humans [url]https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/health/covid-variants-genome-recombination.html[/url] or https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/05/health/covid-variants-genome-recombination.html 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/905710-discussion-my-crystal-ball[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/905710-discussion-my-crystal-ballI remember the duscussions with Henry Niman. The conclusion was probably no recombination in bird flu.

but what are the implications for recombination of Covid ? Can SarsCov2 also recombine, and with which other (corona) viruses ?

DJ-To demonstrate the difference between a mutation and a recombination...

To demonstrata the difference betwen e mutatiod and a recombination (has e to a at position 13, 35 deletion of "e" a to e at position 38 and at position 45 n to d ) = 4 mutations...

To demonstrate the difference how corona-virus jumped to humans - is recombination part of one sentence was linked to the opening sentence...of course this is also a mutation-mix...

[url]https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-why-are-israel-uk-and-us-vaccinating-so-ridiculously-fast/[/url] or https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-why-are-israel-uk-and-us-vaccinating-so-ridiculously-fast/ ;

“Israel’s small size combined with its advanced healthcare system make it the ideal candidate to map the effect on an entire population.” Jerica Pitts of Pfizer told NPR. As a result, the findings in the ‘test field’ will serve as a basis for the rest of the world. The initial results are very encouraging. Although the virus is still rampant in Israel, as Reuters reports, the number of hospitalizations among people over 60 declined by 39 percent between January 16 and February 6.

What has also become clear in recent weeks is how long it takes for a human being to be fully protected against Covid-19. Full protection is a fact 22 days after the second Pfizer dose. The serum needs a bit of time to take effect. Even after the first injection appointment, the risk of a coronavirus infection, severe symptoms and death diminish with each passing day.

After four out of five of the elderly have been vaccinated, the impact is also visible in the national figures. It is also expected to go down even more sharply over the coming weeks. The FireMaster equivalent signal for the pandemic is projected to follow in March or April.

DJ-Vaccination will lower most variant-infections but can give room to variants that manage to evade the (first) vaccination...

-[url]https://www.rt.com/news/515355-covid-brain-fog-cause-discovered/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/515355-covid-brain-fog-cause-discovered/ ; “We found that these patients had persistent inflammation and high levels of cytokines in their cerebrospinal fluid, which explained the symptoms they were having,” says the co-first author of the study, Jan Remsik.

-

While further study is needed, the initial research suggests that additional treatment with anti-inflammatory medications may alleviate ‘brain fog’ in post-Covid patients. The suggestion is that the nervous and immune systems may be more intertwined than had previously been thought.

DJ-"Brain-fog" has been seen in some other illnesses as well.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 12 2021 at 9:54pm

DJ,

I want to take a look on the SA variant [url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7836116/[/url] or https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7836116/  ; Here we show that this lineage exhibits complete escape from three classes of therapeutically relevant monoclonal antibodies. Furthermore 501Y.V2 shows substantial or complete escape from neutralizing antibodies in COVID-19 convalescent plasma. These data highlight the prospect of reinfection with antigenically distinct variants and may foreshadow reduced efficacy of current spike-based vaccines.

In Austria [url]https://www.dw.com/en/can-austria-contain-virus-variant-from-south-africa/av-56545431[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/can-austria-contain-virus-variant-from-south-africa/av-56545431 Tirol-in the west of Austria bordering Germany, Switzerland, Italy there is the second largest outbreak of the SA variant. 

From [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/austria/ there is a link (via [url]https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210212_OTS0112/aktuelle-zahlen-zum-corona-virus[/url] or https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20210212_OTS0112/aktuelle-zahlen-zum-corona-virus ) to the Austria corona-dashboard [url]https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/dashboard.html[/url] or https://covid19-dashboard.ages.at/dashboard.html but it does not (yet) have extra info on the SA variant...Also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant updated more times per day does not have much news on the developments in SA variants...

DJ-If this SA variant escapes from immunity due to earlier infection or vaccination it will show up in statistics. 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa/ has a link to [url]https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/02/12/update-on-covid-19-12th-february-2021/[/url] or https://sacoronavirus.co.za/2021/02/12/update-on-covid-19-12th-february-2021/ ....  like driving through mud....

If the SA variant even more then other known variants just can "ignore" earlier infections or vaccines it has to become a major factor soon. But so far the data presented is limited...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901816-south-africa-variant-501-v2-thread/page3[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901816-south-africa-variant-501-v2-thread/page3 puts us at where we started...

-Still also from [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907017-4-oregonians-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-test-positive-representing-some-of-first-such-cases-in-nation[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907017-4-oregonians-fully-vaccinated-against-covid-test-positive-representing-some-of-first-such-cases-in-nation ; Four people in Oregon tested positive for COVID-19 even though they’d been fully vaccinated and enough time had passed for their second doses to become fully effective, state public health officials announced Friday.

The news makes Oregon one of the first states in the nation to identify so-called “breakthrough cases” where people who were considered immune have now been sickened with mild cases of the disease. State epidemiologist Dr. Dean Sidelinger noted that the breakthrough cases weren’t “unexpected,” given that both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines are thought to be close to 95% effective.

DJ-More bad news...The only reason [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#International_spread[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#International_spread why the UK variant is more likely to become the dominant global variant in march/april is that the SA variant-so far-is less widespread. But given the limited testing/sequencing AND the SA variant much more likely to reinfect/evade vaccination it will follow the UK variant in weeks..The UK variant also has limited cases of the also in  SA-variant 484 position. The UK variant and SA variant share the 501 mutation...

Statistics may give info how the theory translates to practice...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS2VObw1UeI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS2VObw1UeI ;(Most of the story also under his video)

Vitamin D -Dr.J.C. does a test to find out his Vitamin D level is low-even with lots of Vitamin-D supplements (DJ-When you look at vitamin B12-if people-often women-have low levels of that tablets do not work because the intestines do not absorb the B12-melting-tablets under the tongue sometimes work better...but basicly you need to inject B12...If Dr.J.C. takes a lot of vitamin D and still his bloodlevels for D is low there could be an absorption problem (DJ..It is "absorB" but also "absorPtion" English...)

Dr.J.C. Vitamin D2 or D3 both are good. Vitamin D3 is from sun-exposure/skin..D2 is via (limited number of) plants-both can be in supplements. Since meat also has vitamin D3 vegetarians may need some extra vitamin D !

Pathway-From skin (and intestins) to the liver where it is processed into a "product" human body can work with. The kidneys make hormone of that liver-vitamin D. 

Dr.J.C. goes on on the difference between minimum and optimum level of vitamin D (30-50 ng/ml...is most likely the best-but there are many other factors. Of course the goal is to inform NOT to give medical advice !!!)

Also good to know 1000 mili-grams is 1 gram, 1000 micro-grams is 1 mili-gram...(this-in theory-could help [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilogram#SI_multiples[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kilogram#SI_multiples )

UK government advice is take 400 international units (IU) or 10 microgram=mcg as  supplement...Dr.J.C. much to low !  NHS-Do not take more then 4000 IU/100mcg per day...Dr.J.C. disagrees...he has been taking 3000 IU per day for some time and his vitamin D level is still "on the lower side"...(DJ-The maximum level also depends on the goal...in a pandemic a higher maximum level may create better immunity for many..preventative healthcare should be top-priority to keep good healthcare available..)

Vitamin D first goes into body-fat, if that is "full of it" it later goes on into the blood. (DJ Women have in average some more body-fat then men...so they risks more shortages of all kind of vitamins etc. In general you can correct supplements with BMI...but if you go for long term high dosages of all kind of supplements ask medical advice...) Darker skin or less UV-B sunlight is less vitamin D via the skin. 

Just as a reminder; "white people" did get their "lighter skin" some 6000/7000 years ago to increase vitamin D absorption via the skin. It was a step in the evolution when people moved north to area's with less sunshine (and UV-B)..Our ancestors before that-who came from Africa-had darker skins...

Dr.J.C.; [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitamin_D_deficiency[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vitamin_D_deficiency is linked to types of cancer, depression, diabetes...(9% of global population-in Cambodia 20% has a form of diabetes...Lack of vitamins is a pandemic in itself- DJ it is an underlying factor for pandemics...I believe in preventative healthcare. We do have the means to get so much more info on health we should be able to prevent a lot of healthissues if we would organize healthcare pro-active !) 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omega-3_fatty_acid[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omega-3_fatty_acid should not be ignored ! But the evidence of effects is not that clear...To deal with (future) pandemics we have to switch from re-active healthcare-reacting on disease to pro-active healthcare preventing disease or stopping it in the early stages...Also on the long run much cheaper ! But it means "big data" , privacy issues..a commercial system and openess on healthissues may not mix very well..

It is possible to get a clear view on healthissues from the DNA...but insurance on a commercial basis, mortgages etc would be totally different when-almost- all healthrisks are known.

DJ-I would like to know more on how the SA variant is spreading...it must be around a lot in southern Africa, very likely spreading both in Europe and the US...but somehow "data is slow" ...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics is the best I can find-updated "last edited on 12 February 2021, at 15:55 (UTC). " ...

The UK-variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#Spread[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#Spread for now may be 1.Easier to detect (included in UK-PCR test of one of three segments in the test missing indicates UK variant (deletion of segment 69/70). 2 Did get an earler central start-spreading from the UK since november, South Africa is less a global hub...still the SA variant could have been under the radar longer-there may be some links with the Brazil variant...

Music, from the 1987 movie Cry Freedom Nkosi Sikelei'iAfrica [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLJSz-wzOHI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OLJSz-wzOHI [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nkosi_Sikelel%27_iAfrika[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nkosi_Sikelel%27_iAfrika

"Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika" (Xhosa pronunciation: [ŋkʼɔsi sikʼɛlɛl‿iafrikʼa]lit. 'Lord Bless Africa') is a Christian hymn originally composed in 1897 by Enoch Sontonga, a Xhosa clergyman at a Methodist mission school near Johannesburg. The song became a pan-African liberation song and versions of it were later adopted as the national anthems of five countries in Africa including ZambiaTanzaniaNamibia and Zimbabwe after independence. Zimbabwe and Namibia have since adopted new compositions for their national anthems. The song's melody is currently used as the national anthem of Tanzania and the national anthem of Zambia. In 1994,[1] Nelson Mandela decreed that the verse be embraced as a joint national anthem of South Africa, with a revised version including elements of "Die Stem" (the then co-state anthem inherited from the previous apartheid government) adopted in 1997.

The hymn has often been considered the "African national anthem" due to its reverence of the African continent and the hymns use as liberation music. According to anthropologist David Coplan: "'Nkosi Sikelel' iAfrika' has come to symbolize more than any other piece of expressive culture the struggle for African unity and liberation in South Africa."

DJ-At the end all humans have African roots...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 13 2021 at 10:41pm

DJ,

A look at the [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries numbers. US close to half a million tested/reported Covid19 deaths...getting there faster then the world reaching 2,5 million deaths...In new cases France at #3 with over 21,000 new cases. The UK variant is increasing there. Israel keep seeing high numbers-3100 in a day-with still a lot of NPI, vaccination/natural immunity...Israel is one of the countries interesting to watch. They did vaccinate close to half of the population, natural immunity also is supposed to be high. In the older people and HCW-ers-both vaccinated new cases are decreasing. But [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics with 80 cases almost 0,001% of the population has the SA variant.

The wikipedia statistics get updated daily...showing new cases also for february 12 and 13 in many countries. No doubt lots of new cases of the SA variant are missed or under investigation. In time we will learn how big the number of reinfections are and how good vaccines work against the SA variant. Austria has 438 SA variant-tested/reported cases-most in Tirol-Western Austria (with limited border control and family links over the borders). The UK has 141 tested/reported SA variants. The wikipedia statistics see 1818 cases in 38 countries. But due to very poor testing in Africa there the real number must be much higher...

The SA variant is very likely to become a dominant global factor. Unlike the UK variant there are "indications" the SA variant "may start a second pandemic" ignoring earlier infections and vaccinations...NPI is slowing down the spread of variants-but more infectious variants still will spread while "milder" variants (in this case very likely the "old" variant but also the UK variant) will have a R0 under or close to 1. 

The Brazil and South Africa variant seem to be related. (With the Brazil variant having the P1 and P2 variations). Due to travel restrictions the Brazil-B-variant (B-P1 and B-P2 to include some of the unpractical number of names) did not spread that much-even inside Brazil. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lineage_P.1#Statistics  So far 110 cases (86 in Latin America-24 outside that region-including 4 in France) in 15 countries being reported. Like the SA variant the B variant "ignores" earlier immunisation in many cases...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYK9-zvJF_k[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYK9-zvJF_k on a Spanish/Catalan-Barcelona-study on high dosages of vitamin D in early treatment of Covid19 patients in hospitals. (Lots of info under his video);

-In october 2020 study in 76 patients on Calcifediol [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcifediol[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcifediol ; Calcifediol, also known as calcidiol25-hydroxycholecalciferol, or 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (abbreviated 25(OH)D3),[1] is a prehormone that is produced in the liver  looked promissing. 

Out of that group 50 did get Calcifediol-1 needed ICU, 26 did not get Calcifediol 13 (50%) needed ICU, 2 died. After that first study 12 centres in Spain started more studies with good results. Barcelona first one to present "official numbers".

-The Barcelona study was on 930 patients in hospital with Covid19 (positive testing) during first wave in 2020. Study was published january 22-2021. (DJ-Indicates on how much time it takes-HCW-ers also had other priorities). 

Dr.J.C. Vitamin D goes into the body in a reaction to UV-B from sunlight-skin produces basic form of Vitamin D(3). Calcifediol is produced in the lever-it is also measured in blood to see vitamin-D level. But kidneys "process" Calcifediol into Calcitriol hormone. From the skin to the liver "vitamin D processing" can take up to two weeks. (DJ-How well do kidneys work in severe Covid cases ? Would Calcitriol-hormone not do better ?)

On first day in hospital 551 patients did get high dosage of Calcifediol -repeated 4 times in 30 days. Of that group 30 needed ICU, 36 died.  In the control group of 379 patients-without Calcifediol-treatment-80 needed ICU and 57 died. 

DJ-Dr.J.C. asks why other countries do not use Calcifediol (DJ-or Ivermectin..) DJ-My hard answer/opinion because these treatments do not bring profit...The west has been treating this pandemic as a bussiness oppertunity from day 1...even climate change is "a bussiness oppertunity"..never waste a "good disaster" the system is sick ! The pandemic is just the outcome !

DJ-what Dr.J.C. (and with him many others-including the MSM) keep failing to understand; public healthcare has fallen into the hands of "Big Pharma", dealing with climate collapse has gone to the fossil fuel industry...I (DJ) am NOT neutral ! If denying reality is "neutral" I only can see that as "being blind by choice"!!! "Neo-liberalism" "the market" has to do the job" is a big global disaster ! How much worse does it have to get before people wake up ? Before governments take control on public healthcare, climate, war-and-peace ? 

In many countries [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#Spread[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_Concern_202012/01#Spread the UK variant is becoming dominant-the main form of Covid19-or on its way to doing so. The SA variant is following. Since infection-hospital gap is somewhere between 2 and 3 weeks-and in many countries UK variant infections still are low the next healthcare-crisis may be six weeks away-end of march for most of the world. When cases of the UK variant decreases it is possible SA (and limited B) variants do push up new infections again-bringing hospital care close to/over capacity in april and may...as always I hope I am wrong...

Vaccinations do increase-that is good news ! May limit severity of infections-less ICU cases or deaths. Better treatment also may "limit damage" (allthough in a.o. Brazil-Sao Paulo P1 cases do not react as good as "old variant" cases...).  

Austria, Israel, UK may be early indicators on how the SA variant develops. It is good Iceland did get Covid19 out of the country. A mix of NPI, closing borders, vaccinations, improved testing/sequencing is effective...but not applied (long) enough. "Vitamin D" treatment, Ivermectin look hopefull for patients-but has no high profit for Big Pharma (Remdesivir-WHO no benefit-still widely used...brings in a lot of profit for Gilead but does not help the patient...) 

Music Beatles Revolution [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGLGzRXY5Bw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGLGzRXY5Bw  extra [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMuw_BsfmV4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMuw_BsfmV4 How Winston Churchill visited the frontlines in march 1945 and almost got killed...unbelievable...




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 14 2021 at 9:38pm

DJ,

-Before going to CoViD-19 [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/13/ebola-kills-four-in-guinea-in-first-resurgence-of-disease-in-five-years[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/13/ebola-kills-four-in-guinea-in-first-resurgence-of-disease-in-five-years In West Africa-Guinea reporting several cases of Ebola. In Congo (former Zaïre-where Ebola first was detected in 1976-it is named after the Ebola-river) also some new cases show up. 

Early detection and lots of experience may help to get these outbreaks under control soon. A larger outbreak-with already all resources going to CoViD-19-could become a problem. The SA and Nigeria variants may be spreading in both Guinea and D.R.Congo with an economy in wich you make money in the day to buy food in the evening NPI is very limited. A "good" part of the pandemic situation is travel is limited. 

The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaire_ebolavirus#Structure[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zaire_ebolavirus#Structure and form of reproduction could have openings for mixing with Covid19 variants during co-infection ????? (DJ-It would be much to easy to just exclude the possibility ! Yes it are two different kind of virus but both types of virusses did surprise us earlier. I do not know enough to claim somehow a mix of (parts of the) Ebola virus can NOT mix with (parts of the) CoViD-variants during co-infection in a (human or non-human) host. 

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant The SA variant (there is discussion on how to name the variants-I prefer to give the variants the name of the country/region where they were detected first. Even with the UK doing 45% of the sequencing most variants are NOT found in the UK (so we do not yet have a list of UK-variants going from UK-1,to UK endless...). For practical reasons I will stick to variants linked with countries-just to name them..) now 1877 cases in 59 countries detected. (Non of them in Guinea or D.R.Congo-but they do hardly any testing at all...). Yesterday it was 1818 cases in 38 countries.  The SA variant-on its way to push aside the UK variant (also still increasing-in Italy 20%=UK variant in new cases. In France 25% of new cases=UK variant)

february  14 1818-38 countries

february 15 1877-59 countries

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210212-covid-19-patient-in-france-critical-after-reinfection-with-s-african-variant[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210212-covid-19-patient-in-france-critical-after-reinfection-with-s-african-variant DJ-I believe /hope both vaccination and natural infection may offer some protection against reinfection with the SA variant...

[url]https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210211-france-to-send-more-police-to-mayotte-amid-crime-wave-rising-covid-19-cases[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210211-france-to-send-more-police-to-mayotte-amid-crime-wave-rising-covid-19-cases 

DJ-Mayotte is an Island between Madagascar and East Africa France claim to be part of France. [urlhttps://www.france24.com/en/20191022-europe-via-the-indian-ocean-new-wave-of-illegal-immigration-hits-france-s-mayotte[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/20191022-europe-via-the-indian-ocean-new-wave-of-illegal-immigration-hits-france-s-mayotte Lots of people from southern Africa seek a way to get to Europe via that Island...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayotte[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayotte  This Euro-Island still the poorest part of "France" is much wealthier then countries in the region...ideal for mixing all kind of diseases...

(I for now ignore the worldometer statistics...the variants are the problems-as several pandemics inside the pandemic).

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y2VaJhjhFc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Y2VaJhjhFc (lots of info under the video). 

-DJ-Yes UK/US cases going down, US deaths still high....I am beginning to loose my patience with Dr.J.C. "he loves to bring good news" while the variants are bad news...

-In the US CDC (delayed, underreporting-lack of sequencing) 981 UK variants (B1.1.7) in 37 states. 13 SA variant ( B 1.351) in 5 states and 3 P1 (Brazil) cases in 2 states...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_variants[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Notable_variants did the California (B 1.429) variant just go away ????

DJ-If the US still sequences 0,3% of all cases are the number of variants just 0,3% of any realistic number ? So if 981 UK variants=0,3-a more realistic number would be (981:3X1000=327,000 ? US would be over 4333 SA variants...From "if you do not test you do not know" the US going to "if you do not sequence you do not know"...(Dr.J.C. also believes vaccinations "will stop the variants" ...please !)

As a reminder vaccinations offer protection after 12 days...with less then 5% of the US population being vaccinated twice and variants increasing "vaccinations are of limited use"...NPI are needed but "based on good statistics" the US (and some other countries) tend to reopenings...DJ-For me the question is will the next UK-variant wave be stopped by SA variants taking over or will the SA variant wave follow within a few weeks after the UK variants did peak in the US...Also the SA variant will hit the UK...maybe there vaccinating and NPI have a better chance ? They did have the UK variant-maybe offering some better protection against the SA variant...(UK so far 141 SA variants detected).

-Dr.J.C. 0,14% of US, 0,18% of UK  population died from Covid19. (deaths per million [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries would see Uk 1720, US 1497...Belgium 1862, Italy 1549 Spain 1384 Sweden 1226, Brazil 1121...(reported/tested deaths per million-1% of a million=10.000 so UK 0,172% of population-so far-died-from Covid19...DJ-with the variants very likely bringing worse numbers...The Spanish Flu-peak lasted 18 months..we are just over 12 months into this pandemic..)

-Dr.J.C. mentions David Davis MP for the conservatives-DJ-on itself doing a good job in the vitamin D discussion. But his party did cut spending/destroy almost the NHS...In my opinion this pandemic shows healthcare has to be free, available for all...preventative healthcare is needed urgently to deal with (upcoming) pandemics...Less money for big pharma and "managers" more money to get at least the basics better...This pandemic is NOT a bussiness oppertunity but a major risk for human survival !

-In my opinion we are "far beyond" "asking serious questions" on why Vitamin D, Ivermectin-other cheap means are NOT being used-while effective (and expensive-not effective Remdesivir etc is being used...) DJ Public healthcare belong in public hands NOT in the hands of big pharma going for profit !!! (Somehow Dr.J.C. has a problem to see where the problem is...)

-Oxford (UK) University starts looking at vaccines for children 6-17 y/o (DJ-finally...Russia was looking at vaccines for minks...). Dr.J.C. you have to include children (from that age) if you want to go for herd-immunity (DJ-via vaccination-with variants maybe 80/90% of population may need several vaccinations. The SA-variant-in some reports-is striking harder in a young population. Also stories of increased Multi Inflamatory Syndrome in Children (MIS-C) is related to Covid19 infections...The idea is children are less likely to get ill from infection-in practice therefore children did not get tested often...so we do not have "the best view" on the role children play in spreading the virus...There are some indications children/teenagers may be a motor spreading the pandemic.)

-Dr.J.C. has a report from "Nick" from the UK south coast. Nick has a serious swallowing problem (due to severe illness) and may not be able to get ventilated. Therefore he qualified for (AZ/O) vaccination. Mick is needle phobic-passes out from needles...If you have that problem take it serious and inform the people vaccinating. Getting a vaccination can be stressfull for some-if that is the case-that is how it works for you-do not make the problem bigger. Inform people...He is giving a good description of 1-10 and 24 hrs after vaccination. His temperature went up 9 hrs after vaccination from 36,4 to 37,4 but the next morning it was back to normal...He could still feel where the injection has been...but also that is normal. If you know you are going to pass out prepare for that by securing the conditions. (Maybe sitting on the ground, on a bed would be safer..?)

DJ-There is "some discussion"on people with obesity getting priority. Obesity BMI<40 or <35 with other conditions...The "level" of that discussion is that mean it would be welcome if government/police "re educated" some of this "stupidity"...Also using this pandemic in a propaganda war-while this pandemic may be getting (much) worse-is not helpfull. 

The WHO did a bad job in the early phase of the pandemic-but we need a better WHO-not ending the WHO...In many poor countries the WHO (and CDC) is providing at least some basic healthcare. 

DJ-It is correct to claim the ebola and Covid19 virusses are as distinct as elephants and tigers-the chance of an elephant and a tiger having a "baby" ('tiger-phant" ?) is ZERO ! (Proberbly even in a lab !). The problem however with virusses is they reproduce in a host...the chances of mixing there may be 0,00001% but one should try to bring it down to 0%.

History-If you think "trump" was a new phenomena think twice [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWL0Nz4g5yk[url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWL0Nz4g5yk has a lot in common. "Take no prisoners" had US forces killing 73 Italian unarmed POW's in Sicily. According to patton the German ss was like "the democrats in the US"...In order to get his son-in-law out of a German POW-camp in march 45 patton decided to send a "task-force" behind German lines-resulting in hundreds of US soldiers killed... But "dying in a war was for losers"...In fact patton had much more sympathy for the nazi's then for the Soviet ally (and in that view a lot of western leaders more or less agreed with him.) DJ-When you look at the sponsors of the nazi's, how hitler got into power-it is shocking to see how much support the west gave to nazi-ism (against the Soviet Union). In 1933 Dachau opened as the first concentration camp-with communists and socialists, trade union leaders getting in prison there-the west more or less did see it as an example..

History repeats itself...in a different shape-but humans do not change that much-and most of human history is the outcome of human action...Coca Cola started in Germany in 1929-Fanta was started in nazi-Germany...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP-Lrp0mdng[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP-Lrp0mdng ...

DJ-The main cause of this pandemic getting out of control has been underestimating it. The idea of this virus "getting milder" in time may be-in itself science based...but the road it takes on "getting milder" did already kill millions...If we fail to take action it will kill tens of millions...and we know the poor will suffer the most. "Decreasing number new cases"false statistics may open the doors to a tragedy the world did not see before...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 15 2021 at 10:37pm

DJ 

Carbon20 had a CNN-link to new US variants, 7 variations with Q to P change at position 677 showing up in the US since august 2020. With the number of infections [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries tested/reported in humans getting to 110 million-but the more realistic number very likely close to 1 billion infections in humans, minks, cat-likes the number of variants has to be exploding. 

One main reason for not yet finding many of them is lack of sequencing/reading them. Covid19 has 29,300 positions that show mistakes when the RNA virus reproduces itself in a host-cell. Most of those mistakes make the virus weaker-offer no benefit. Some of the mistakes do offer benefits-like easier connecting to a host cell-and so those "mistakes" become "mutations"...

When a lot of the same mutations keep coming back in new infections you have a variant. For practical reasons it is often named to the country/region where it was first detected. So you have the UK (or Kent) variant, the SA/South Africa- and B/Brazil variant...to name the 3 major variants spreading at this moment. 

You can also name them after the kind of mutation/strain..B1.1.7. or sort of variant 501V2-but I like to keep it workable and "simple"...

-The numbers for 15 february reflect the limited testing/reporting from sunday-february 14. The US is moving towards 500,000 (tested/reported) Covid deaths...the world is getting close to 2,5 million deaths...Since now most risk comes from variants-the old variant decreasing fast, new variants increasing-for now the global numbers are-relatively-low. 

The general view is the UK variant will be dominant in march/april worldwide. The SA variant may be much more infectious...(simply jumping over immunization..). Allthough the claim is both variants will not bring more severe disease-and vaccinations offer (some) protection-part of the problem will be in the high number of people getting ill. Also most people still are not vaccinated or did get Covid-infection.

It is certain other variants will show up. If that variant manages to push away the UK and SA variant and bring milder disease that would be welcome...But we have been in this pandemic for over a year-and should have learned this virus is a dragon with many heads...you deal with one variant you get several variants in return...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fpc5QXfAVQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Fpc5QXfAVQ 

-DJ-On itself Dr.J.C. is correct defining "reinfection" as testing twice positive on Covid testing with a time gap between it with negative testing. Based on that-science based-view only 31 reinfections are known...Dr.J.C. some time ago reported on Brazil/Manaus with very likely-besides a wrong estimate on how many people were infected-very likely also "significant numbers" of P1 (Brazil variant) reinfections causing a second wave december 2020/january 2021-8 months after the first wave in that region. 

Dr.J.C. "starts talking about "popular press" etc-suggests SA reinfection news is a media-hype...[url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7836116/[/url] or https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7836116/Here we show that this lineage exhibits complete escape from three classes of therapeutically relevant monoclonal antibodies. Furthermore 501Y.V2 shows substantial or complete escape from neutralizing antibodies in COVID-19 convalescent plasma. These data highlight the prospect of reinfection with antigenically distinct variants and may foreshadow reduced efficacy of current spike-based vaccines.

Maybe  this study is "popular press"for Dr.J.C. ? (Makes me wonder if Dr.J.C. has links to the conservative party pushing for reopening ?)  Time will tell how many reinfections SA/B variants will bring and if newer variants are able to "restart" the pandemic...

-UK variant showing up in Australia (Victoria-Melbourne 16 cases-also in New Zealand-Auckland 3 cases). DJ Vaccines did arrive in both Australia and New Zealand. Dr.J.C. at least not denying UK variants uncontrolled could get 80% of the population infected...Lockdowns (in combination with good testing etc) hopefully will contain these cases...

DJ-Dr.J.C. claims "he does not want to get political" but his anti-EU/EMA, pro vaccines view is very clear...bringing up a conservative MP on vatimin D ...why "politics"is ruining at least even basic reporting ? 

In my view Angela Merkel-in Germany-is one of the politicians trying to do a good job. Disappointed about the slow start of vaccinations-trying to push for more NPI but German member states pushing for reopening. Bavaria closing borders with Austria and Czech-republic trying to keep variants out...

Japan approved Pfizer after doing their own "pseudo-testing" DJ-Japan has very limited vaccine industry-is working on their own vaccine...NPI was a more normal way to stop the spread of disease...

-Russia 2020 excess deaths 264,100 official Covid deaths 40,500...DJ-One could claim "Russia is lying" I prefer "Russia needs to look at her defenition of Covid deaths"...Excess deaths and number of Covid deaths for Belgium very likely hardly shows a gap. For NL the gap already is much wider...I believe excess deaths for 2020 was over 20,000 with something like 12,000 the official Covid deaths...In 2020 there were three peaks above average-two related to Covid-waves and the third one to a summer heat wave...In general-beside the peaks-mortality was lower then average...

It would be welcome if all countries could agree on using the same defenition of "Covid deaths" (UK has 28 days limit..not very logical-if you die on day 29 after diagnose/positive test you do not go in Covid UK statistics-If I am correct..)

Dr.J.C. is correct in claiming part of the story may be in limited testing in Russia-so if you do not test positive for Covid "you do not die from Covid"...a part can be explained by increased deaths of other causes-less treatment...DJ-But basicly "Russia is keeping Covid numbers down for propaganda reasons" may be the only realistic conclusion (same goes for China...). 

Bad thing of playing with numbers is that it is hard to find out what treatments are effective..."Nationalism" is a factor in many countries-and within certain limits there is not much wrong of being "proud to be an AmericaN', "Love Mother Russia" (with often an old religious link...mother Russia being Mary...) 

DJ-A way to get a more realistic view of what this pandemic has done-for 2020-is compare all excess death numbers...including Covid19 but also people not getting treatment in time for other illnesses, the sad number of increased suicides...But when you look at the Spanish Flu statistics those numbers are between 20 and 100 million...

The point I want to make with this "scenario's" is trying to get a view of where we are. In the most positive scenario Covid19 "will melt away like the snow outside" in the darkest scenario the Covid virus gets both more infectious and bringing more severe disease...(before the virus becomes milder-looking at history pandemics can "do a lot of damage"). 

Wikipedia had some statistics on the spread of the SA variant-now "re-edited", we know variants are spreading. The Israeli numbers are "not good"  (over 5000 new infections) but also Israel is still busy vaccinating. I do expect to soon see (new) variants bringing daily cases worldwide above the 500,000. The US will get hit hard. NPI/closing borders and "better communications" may help keeping numbers in most of Europe limited...

Music; Wallace Collection-Day Dream [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wFMY0r7X-w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wFMY0r7X-w (A Belgian world hit from 1969)




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2021 at 2:02am

DJ, 

I would love this pandemic being over yesterday-everybody has "Covid-fatigue" and welcomes "good news"; but let's try to be realistic;

-WHO reporting for fifth week global cases going down showing NPI etc works...Decrease of 5 million cases in the week till january 4 to 2,6 million new cases in the week from february 1-8...DJ-The "if we stop fighting it will return" remark adds some realism to this optimism...

-Flutrackers latest news has lots of stuff; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907310-four-people-in-oregon-have-tested-positive-for-the-coronavirus-after-receiving-both-doses-of-the-covid-19-vaccine[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907310-four-people-in-oregon-have-tested-positive-for-the-coronavirus-after-receiving-both-doses-of-the-covid-19-vaccine DJ-People showing signs of mild infection two weeks after the second vaccination should be expected. Against the old variant protection is supposed to be 90-95%...even above 75% would be good compared with the average flu-vaccination...As long as only a limited number of people show-most mild-symptoms after two vaccinations+ two weeks and getting a Covid infection "things are under control". 

South Africa is reopening its borders claiming they did get Covid19/the SA variant under control...DJ-I do not trust the numbers SA may be presenting for now. The claimed vaccines could not stop infections. Some studies suggests high risk of SA variant re-infection.

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics DJ Today shows different numbers then yesterday...Proberbly the maker of this page also trying to get a view. The SA variant-in this version of the wikipedia page-has been found in 41 countries-1825 cases. Austria-Tirol-has 438 cases. ([url]https://www.thelocal.at/20210215/skiing-in-tyrol-what-are-the-rules[/url] or https://www.thelocal.at/20210215/skiing-in-tyrol-what-are-the-rules )....simply bad reporting...

Variants may increase the number of people getting infected after vaccination-may also increase severity...

-On the vaccines. Most western producers have delivery problems. Russia and China try to get into the gap but some reports claim Russia only has 2 million Sputnik-V vaccines for all of Russia...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine#Abroad[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_V_COVID-19_vaccine#Abroad DJ-Yes there is a market for Sputnik-V and there are plans to produce the vaccine outside Russia...but that is all in the future...The picture I am getting only China may be able to export their vaccines in larger numbers...limited data suggests those vaccines may offer (even) less protection (against variants)...

As a reminder A-Most of the global population of over 7,8 billion did not yet get infected-even if you would go for 1 billion people being infected (of wich only 110 million cases did get reported/tested) 6,8 billion did not get infected. B Vaccinations still are problematic. The number of people having two vaccinations and 14 days to build up defenses for now may be in the tens of millions...C In many countries variants are only in the early stages will become dominant in the coming weeks. 

My expectation is the world will not get out of this pandemic this year-if you define a pandemic as transfer of the virus from person to person in many places (several WHO regions). At best-via vaccination, NPI some countries will be able to "keep numbers down". Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, China manage to get there via NPI. Israel may be able to get there via a mix of vaccinations/NPI travel restrictions. 

Worldwide I think "we are far away"from the end of a pandemic. Most of the vaccines end up in a limited number of rich countries. Vaccine production remains a problem longer as expected. Even if in april production can start dealing with demand (by the opening of new factories in UK, Germany-increasing capacity in India a.o. also EMA/FDA approval of more vaccines) getting the vaccines into the people will take months..

For the UK-over 15 million people on the short term only vaccinated once-(but they had the peak of the UK variant) it will be a test to see how the SA variant will develop. In general both the UK and SA variants are that widespread it is to late to stop them.   

Covid fatigue may make this pandemic last even longer. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus/page19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus/page19 Humidity, season may be factors in how pandemics evolve. Low humidity, variants, reopenings and people ignoring risks can restart the pandemic. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/907306-risk-assessment-sars-cov-2-increased-circulation-of-variants-of-concern-and-vaccine-rollout-in-the-eu-eea-14th-update[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/907306-risk-assessment-sars-cov-2-increased-circulation-of-variants-of-concern-and-vaccine-rollout-in-the-eu-eea-14th-updateDue to the increased transmissibility, the evidence of increased severity and the potential for the existing licensed COVID-19 vaccines to be partially or significantly less effective against a variant of concern (VOC), combined with the high probability that the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 cases due to B.1.1.7 (and possibly also B.1.351 and P.1) will increase, the risk associated with further spread of the SARS-CoV-2 VOCs in the EU/EEA is currently assessed as high to very high for the overall population and very high for vulnerable individuals.

DJ [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/hospitals-on-alert-for-new-child-infection-from-british-variant/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/hospitals-on-alert-for-new-child-infection-from-british-variant/

The Health Ministry has alerted hospitals to prepare for large numbers of children coming down with coronavirus and requiring treatment. New evidence shows that children are vulnerable to the fast-spreading British variant, which is held accountable for 80pc of current infection in Israel.

Altogether 3,446 new cases were recorded in the last 24 hours and 990 seriously ill with 285 on ventilators. Mortality is up to 5,403.

(DJ - in many countries schools are reopening with also increase of UK variants...) and [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/netanyahu-pfizer-to-set-up-2-factories-and-an-rd-center-in-israel/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/netanyahu-pfizer-to-set-up-2-factories-and-an-rd-center-in-israel/PM Binyamin Netanyahu disclosed Monday that Pfizer plans to establish two factories and an R&D center in Israel to make the country a world center of vaccine research and production. In a long TV interview, Netanyahu said he had placed millions more vaccine orders with Pfizer and Moderna to have the country ready for repeat inoculations next year.

DJ-extra vaccinations-in part to deal with variants-(and in part to stop other pandemics) seem to be needed. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/906586-covid-19-n-l-covid-cases-rising-province-under-lockdown-due-to-b117-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/906586-covid-19-n-l-covid-cases-rising-province-under-lockdown-due-to-b117-variant Parts of Canada reporting increasing numbers-due to UK variant. DJ (Here in NL the last week we slowly are getting out of-very welcome-decreasing number of new cases. The UK variant most likely will bring higher numbers soon. )

-Another study [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/907309-sars-cov-2-variants-b-1-351-and-b-1-1-248-escape-from-therapeutic-antibodies-and-antibodies-induced-by-infection-and-vaccination-biorxiv-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/907309-sars-cov-2-variants-b-1-351-and-b-1-1-248-escape-from-therapeutic-antibodies-and-antibodies-induced-by-infection-and-vaccination-biorxiv-preprintSUMMARY

The global spread of SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 is devastating health systems and economies worldwide. Recombinant or vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies are used to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. However, recently emerged SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.7 (UK), B.1.351 (South Africa) and B.1.1.248 (Brazil) harbor mutations in the viral spike (S) protein that may alter virus-host cell interactions and confer resistance to inhibitors and antibodies. Here, using pseudoparticles, we show that entry of UK, South Africa and Brazil variant into human cells is susceptible to blockade by entry inhibitors. In contrast, entry of the South Africa and Brazil variant was partially (Casirivimab) or fully (Bamlanivimab) resistant to antibodies used for COVID-19 treatment and was less efficiently inhibited by serum/plasma from convalescent or BNT162b2 vaccinated individuals. These results suggest that SARS-CoV-2 may escape antibody responses, which has important implications for efforts to contain the pandemic.

DJ-Dr.J.C. is "over-optimistic" in his claim re-infection risk is very limited. It is not "just popular press" claiming new variants may increase reinfections...

Some other links [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907308-vaccinations-and-the-impact-of-covid-19-%E2%80%93-our-continuously-updated-data-for-israel[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907308-vaccinations-and-the-impact-of-covid-19-%E2%80%93-our-continuously-updated-data-for-israel DJ-Again Israel may be interesting to follow on how good vaccinations work, UK and SA variants...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907181-exeter-study-shows-increased-risk-for-younger-people-with-type-2-diabetes[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907181-exeter-study-shows-increased-risk-for-younger-people-with-type-2-diabetes ; While the risk of dying from coronavirus increases significantly with age, scientists are urging caution to younger people with type 2 diabetes.
Researchers have found that a 40-year-old with the condition has the same likelihood of a fatal outcome after becoming infected with COVID-19 as a non-diabetic who is 60.
The study by Exeter University discovered that the increased coronavirus mortality from having type 2 diabetes rises the younger you are.
This means that while older people with the condition had a “COVID age” similar to their actual age, those who were middle aged with type 2 diabetes had a comparatively higher risk.

-

COVID may be causing its own hybrid of diabetes, scientists fear.
Diabetes is generally either type 1 or type 2. But Covid survivors are presenting with a combination of the two.
....The condition affects up to 15 per cent of people previously infected with coronavirus, research has shown.
Some have risk factors for the condition, such as obesity or family history, and coronavirus may have triggered it.
But others develop diabetes to the surprise of doctors.
Scientists are struggling to pin the underlying mechanisms that lead to diabetes in Covid patients.

-

Those who take metformin to manage their type 2 diabetes are less likely to die from COVID-19 should they become infected, researchers have said.
...
But now a team from the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) say they have found evidence to suggest that the popular type 2 diabetes drug metformin might offer a level of protection from dying with the killer virus.
Lead study author Dr Anath Shalev, director of UAB’s Comprehensive Diabetes Center, said: “This beneficial effect remained, even after correcting for age, sex, race, obesity, and hypertension or chronic kidney disease and heart failure.

DJ Diabetes is widespread, BMI above 27/30 is also a problem in many countries...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/903649-ca-gorillas-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-san-diego-park[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/903649-ca-gorillas-test-positive-for-coronavirus-at-san-diego-parkThe zoo believes that a staff member who was asymptomatic passed the virus to the troop, despite taking all safety precautions. The troop was infected with the B.1.429 strain of the virus, known as one of two West Coast variants that may be more contagious than other strains.

DJ The CAL.20C variant does not get much attention...

In general MSM is showing a lack of intelligent reporting-is "tired of corona news" simply not getting how serious a pandemic is..."Good news" video's (and Dr.J.C. sometimes tend to that) may give a false perspective...the basic indications are towards a worsening of the pandemic.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 16 2021 at 10:18pm

DJ, 

In "latest news-new variants" more on [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907387-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/907387-exclusive-two-variants-have-merged-into-heavily-mutated-coronavirus recombination is bad news-although like with mutations-both mistakes in reproduction-the virus most of the time gets weaker-given the number of infections there-in statistics-is a growing risk for new variants being a bigger danger. (But again-I (DJ) am not an expert-try to get a view on events...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907002-b-c-identifies-new-variant-of-covid-19-b-1-525-associated-with-travel-to-nigeria[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907002-b-c-identifies-new-variant-of-covid-19-b-1-525-associated-with-travel-to-nigeria DJ B 1.525 is the mutated UK variant ( so not the Nigeria variant...) B.1.525 has a mutation called E484K that may help the virus slip past some of the body's immune system defences. This mutation is also found in the Brazil and South African variants.

DJ-Another risk is the more variants in an area the more likely they can mix in a host (via infection) and create more new variants...the only way to stop is is to stop (as good as) all international travel, strict social distancing..."we ain't seen nothing yet" if we keep failing to get this pandemic under control. With very strict NPI we can stop this pandemic NOW !!! We have to stop it NOW !!!!!!!

I (DJ) only can think of more cases create variants of a disease-if there are a lot of cases the more variants-and with this number of "hundreds of millions of infections" in "lots of species" [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/907396-hundreds-of-animal-species-could-harbor-novel-coronaviruses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/907396-hundreds-of-animal-species-could-harbor-novel-coronaviruses  we "may expect thousends of variants"...We have to stop that NOW !!!

Because the best vaccines, treatments will become useless if there are lots of variants out there some reacting to some form of vaccine/treatment others not...we "should not go there"...

-DJ [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-tracking-sierra-leone/907410-new-ebola-case-reported-in-sierra-leone[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-tracking-sierra-leone/907410-new-ebola-case-reported-in-sierra-leone and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/907413-who-alerts-six-african-countries-after-ebola-outbreaks[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-forums/907413-who-alerts-six-african-countries-after-ebola-outbreaks By the looks of it we are seeing the start of a new Ebola disaster-this time both in the Congo AND West Africa. Ebola is a RNA virus-chances of Covid19 variants mixing with Ebola most likely are very, very small...(DJ-A virologist can see if a mix/recombination is 0,0000000%...)

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics Guinea has (as far as is known/tested/sequenced) 3 SA variants. D.R. Congo has 1. Since there is hardly any testing/sequencing in most of Africa the real numbers very likely are much worse...

But AGAIN !!-I am not an expert, trying just to make sense...may produce "to much non-sense" so I hope I am wrong, please correct me..

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/malls-gyms-entertainment-hotels-reopen-on-sunday/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/malls-gyms-entertainment-hotels-reopen-on-sunday/ DJ Looking at worldometer numbers Israel still seeing 4282 new cases february 16...Even with large scale vaccination reopening-in my opinion-is to soon. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHH1vWD19Fw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHH1vWD19Fw Dr. John Campbell;

-Looking at SA statistics numbers did decrease there while the SA variant was a major problem. DJ So yes-there is a lot of worry about the SA variant-but if statistics from South Africa are correct it can be controlled (at least for now) via NPI (no vaccinations on any major level in SA). 

-Dr.J.C. may have a point in his claim that there are limits in how much Covid19 can mutate...Some spots in the RNA (69/70 deletion) 484, 501, 614 show up more often (and most other mutations most likely have limited effect on the virus as far as we know...) DJ-Still most likely "experts" proberbly did expect this virus to develop in a different way-not becoming this pandemic even now...I think-"experts" may have found this virus even for them was "on the other side" of their knowledge. It is hard to be an "expert" on something unseen before..Yes they know a lot of virusses, epidemology...but that knowledge maybe even worked against them since Covid19 "did its own thing"..

-DJ-In the US over 41 million vaccines have been used- 1170 people died after vaccination...(0,0003%). Other countries also report very limited number of people dying after vaccination. A-Often they did not die due to vaccination-since most countries include the most vulnarable in first vaccinations...They died most of the time because of the reasons (old age, health issues) that made them get vaccinated. B-Some did die due to vaccination (In Norway they changed strategy-some people are that vulnarable vaccination may be to much). A vaccination is a medical intervention. Some people may turn out not to be strong enough to have their body creating immunity. C-In very limited cases there could be other problems, allergy, very unusual reactions...vaccination is not risk-free. 

DJ-I think people never should be forced to have a vaccine-it is their body ! But not taking a vaccine may be a higher risk more often. Also if you do not want a vaccination there can be other limitations/restrictions-not as punishment but to protect others-(for the duration needed-if there no longer is a pandemic one can lift the restrictions.)

-DJ-All vacines are supposed to be "safe and effective" but monitoring them may give info on what vaccines are most safe for what group of patients-less likely to give side effects. Also it is good to monitor how well vaccines protect. Some may offer much better protection then others-or may do better against some variants...Monitoring "after sales" is costly but does pay of at the end...optimizing vaccinations..(DJ-But patients have to be informed/agree all the time-it is their body so it is their information !)

-Dr.J.C. only mentions group A-claims that those who died after vaccination "would have died any way"...In most cases I think that may be correct but in general it is to simple to put it that way. Production of vaccines can go wrong-there may be mistakes in production are giving a vaccination. And there may be unexpected health issues giving problems..."that do not happen anyway"...

-Vaccination is the single most effective way to reduce deaths and severe illness from COVID-19.

DJ-This is a belief-when you look at the facts countries getting Covid19 under control did so by NPI-kept "big pharma" out ! From China, Australia, New Zealand to Iceland they did deal with Covid19 via testing-isolating-contact tracing...I think that is a much more realistic way of dealing with a pandemic then "Big Pharma" dealing with a bussiness oppertunity...(But who am I ?)

Another issue is who to include into a crisis team dealing with a pandemic. In NL medical-historians were excluded. They could have warned for mistakes made in earlier health-crises. One of the best virologist-advisor to the WHO-included in the WHO team visiting Wuhan recently to the best of her knowledge Marianne Koopmans (Erasmus Medical Center-Rotterdam University) did believe in february 2020 since "there were no direct flights from Wuhan to NL we would get no cases". Proberbly thinking of SARS-1 in 2003. 

Trump did listen to advisors-proberbly also with a lot of medical background-claiming the "virus would go away" in summer 2020. Most likely even now "experts"do disagree on a lot of issues...they know a lot but not all !

In most of Europe countries do expect the variants to bring problems-that is why we have that many restrictions now for this long. Dr. J.C. has a good medical background-did see a lot of the world hospitals via training. But he may be "over optimistic" and have "limited experience/knowledge" of pandemics. 

I have no medical background/science-knowledge-limited knowledge of history, an interest in following this historical event. I try to get a realistic view of what to expect without "pushing a fire button". Vaccinations can help in damage-control. If you are vaccinated you most likely will get less ill if you get infected...But the main "front" is to keep the spread of the virus as close as 0 as possible...

Vaccines give the false impression "we can manage a pandemic" while we can not "manage a pandemic" or manage a climate, volcanism, space or whatever...there are limits !

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQyxCL1uMlU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQyxCL1uMlU Aphrodite's Child -Rain And Tears (Demiss Roussos, Vangelis, Greek pop-music from the seventies)


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2021 at 12:02am

Going back several posts to...

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

-Russia 2020 excess deaths 264,100 official Covid deaths 40,500...DJ-One could claim "Russia is lying" I prefer "Russia needs to look at her defenition of Covid deaths"..

From what I have read Russia has a policy of not reporting Covid deaths IF there is another possible alternative; eg if someone dies say of pneumonia with covid-19 then it would be recorded only as pneumonia. In my view "excess deaths" is probably the best matrix we can have for this pandemic as it covers situations where tests are limited, and any possible mis-diagnosis (either hiding data or exaggerating it).

From https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/russia-population/ the population of Russia was expected to grew by about 62,000 in 2020. Thus to have 261,100 excess deaths means that they have slipped back into a population decline. From a climate change view point this might be a good thing, but politically this could lead to local dissatisfaction and so a tighter hold by those currently in power as they feel their position weakens. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2021 at 2:15am

DJ When I look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/russia/ Russia today has 81,466 deaths according to worldometers. The base this info on [url]https://xn--80aesfpebagmfblc0a.xn--p1ai/[/url] or https://xn--80aesfpebagmfblc0a.xn--p1ai/ (Do not know if that link will work-because the original is in Russian "Stopcoronavirus.RU"..tested it-via google translate info most in English..)

However...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Russia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Russia comes with different numbers; According to detailed data published by the Federal State Statistics Service, 114,268 people with COVID-19 died between April and November 2020.[5][6] According to the same data, over 240,000 excess deaths were reported in the same time period.

DJ-They do have an English website..[url]https://eng.rosstat.gov.ru/[/url] or https://eng.rosstat.gov.ru/ but [url]https://eng.rosstat.gov.ru/search?q=covid[/url] or https://eng.rosstat.gov.ru/search?q=covid I do not see the Covid-statistics for Russia there...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Russia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_Russia is showing close to 3 million cases end of 2020. Worldometers by that time did see over 3,1 million Russian cases...

The info from [url]https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/russia?country=~RUS[/url] or https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/russia?country=~RUS has 3,15 million Russian cases...so several sources produce several numbers-most likely not only for Russia but for most countries (Worldometer numbers on the US include US Samoa, Puerto Rico etc. while John Hopkins does not include them but gives their numbers seperately. Russian numbers will include Crimea, the west has a different opinion...)

If there is a very large gap between reported numbers one should first check the sources and defenitions. 

[url]https://www.rt.com/russia/515754-russian-vaccines-uk-variant/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/515754-russian-vaccines-uk-variant/

Russia’s Sputnik V and EpiVacCorona vaccines have been proven to be effective against the UK variant of the coronavirus, a government agency has said.

Serum obtained from people who took the Sputnik V and EpiVacCorona vaccines and had antibodies to the novel coronavirus, demonstrated a “protective effect” against the UK variant, Russia’s consumer protection agency, Rospotrebnadzor, said in a statement to the media.

It added that the vaccines have shown to be just as good against the British strain as they are against the ordinary SARS-CoV-2 virus, which causes Covid-19.

DJ -With limited-so far-western production of vaccines Russia and China see a chance to sell their products. The reason why Russia is very close to China has to do with Russian economy [url]https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/[/url] or https://www.investopedia.com/insights/worlds-top-economies/ #11 in the world (but also depending on what defenition is used...) between Canada #10 and South Korea #12. Russia's main sources of income has been the export of energy, raw materials and weapons...Via being a "landbridge" between China and the EU Russia is hoping to diversify its exports...(they once had their own car industry, computers...space exploration is still a Soviet-era memory.)

Climate change for Russia has problems-foundations of some nordic cities, pipelines on permafrost are in danger...but also (on the short term) benefits..the nordic sea route now is used several months per year-a much shorter sea-route from China to the EU and under Russian control. Also agriculture can "move north" increasing production. [url]https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/10/moscows-climate-change-dilemma-a72885[/url] or https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/10/moscows-climate-change-dilemma-a72885

[url]https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/17/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-feb-17-a69117[/url] or https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/02/17/coronavirus-in-russia-the-latest-news-feb-17-a69117 DJ-Also "press freedom" is not a simple question. Part of the Russian media is meant for the international public. NL is supposed to have about "the best press freedom" on the world-but you need good journalists, media not afraid of losing advertisments...The best media in NL only reach a small part of the population...that part often had better education and can deal with the info...

What I find interesting in Russia is how Putin is balancing between many players. He wants good relations with Turkey-Erdogan and manages to combine that with friendly relations with Assad in Syria AND Netanyahu in Israel ! German-Russian cooperation via Northstream in energy but also via the Germany-Asia railroad link via Russia is also "interesting"..

Russia needs to have a balance with China. Historical [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Manchuria Russia expanded under the Czars taking land from the Ottoman Empire (Ukraine mainly) and China (East Siberia). China may be interested in farms in eastern Russia to produce food for China. Russia does not want millions of Chinese in eastern Russia-so it has to find a balance...(DJ-And both Russia and China have "problems" with Japan. US pressure on both Russia and China is supporting Russian-Chinese cooperations in infrastructure-may even go (much) further...)

From the Soviet era it is also normal for Russian women to have a job. The Russian Orthodox Church would "love big families" but that idea is not very popular with most young Russians. Housing in larger cities is expensive...Russian men have a reputation for drinking problems...that does not encourage young Russian women to have a lot of children...So yes-there is a population issue in Russia-a very large country with lots of Russians concentrated in cities. EU boycot of Russia in export of fruits did result in Russia increasing their own fruits production and more imports from Turkey, Iran...

Another "history"is that not all Europeans did seek a new future in the US, Canada, Australia, Brazil...till 1914 some went to Russia. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Russia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_groups_in_Russia World War Two did mean a lot of people with German/western background ran "into problems". The border moving west after 1945 did see large ethnic cleansing...East Prussia became Kaliningrad... 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 17 2021 at 10:27pm

DJ,

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics The wikipedia-page on the SA variant has (now) 1979 cases in 40 countries. For NL it has 31 cases. The Dutch CDC is reporting 54 SA variants. The [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ has "limited value" because-yes the old variant cases are going down-NPI works for that...the problem is in the new variants...

Worldometer-numbers show three countries with over 1000 deaths (US, Mexico, Brazil) and 11,344 deaths in one day is still very much..When you look at specific countries like Israel-high vaccinations and "natural immunity" still also over 4000 new cases the only conclusion can be that this pandemic is far from over...

Still a lot of countries are preparing for reopenings, in NL there is an election coming. So far politics has been a disaster in how they did (not) deal with this pandemic...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc/907545-detection-of-b-1-351-sars-cov-2-variant-strain-%E2%80%94-zambia-december-2020-cdc[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/national-international-government-ngo-preparation-response/cdc/907545-detection-of-b-1-351-sars-cov-2-variant-strain-%E2%80%94-zambia-december-2020-cdc Zambia reporting increase of SA variant...DJ South Africa claims their numbers are decreasing (via lock down-they gave the AZ/O vaccines to the African Union will be starting J&J vaccination on a small scale). DJ Covid in Africa is seeing very limited testing as good as no sequencing...the economic pressure to deny any problem is large. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907580-china-17-total-new-imported-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-from-drc-11-nigeria-3-jordan-2-zimbabwe-1-in-guangdong-province-for-february-17-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907580-china-17-total-new-imported-covid-19-coronavirus-cases-from-drc-11-nigeria-3-jordan-2-zimbabwe-1-in-guangdong-province-for-february-17-2021 DJ So indirect Congo 11, Nigeria 3, Zimbabwe 1 testing positive when entering China indicates Covid 19 is a major problem in Africa...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/907541-mmwr-in-zambia-the-average-number-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-increased-16-fold-from-44-cases-during-dec-1%E2%80%9310-to-700-during-jan-1%E2%80%9310-after-detection-of-the-b-1-351-variant-in-specimens-collected-during-december-16%E2%80%9323-february-17-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/907541-mmwr-in-zambia-the-average-number-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-increased-16-fold-from-44-cases-during-dec-1%E2%80%9310-to-700-during-jan-1%E2%80%9310-after-detection-of-the-b-1-351-variant-in-specimens-collected-during-december-16%E2%80%9323-february-17-2021 DJ-If countries in Africa do testing/sequencing (send samples to other countries) the picture is bad...lots of variants...

Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApiGENgkcm0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApiGENgkcm0 ;

-Why are US cases going down this fast ? Dr.J.C. thinks individual behavior has to be the main factor. Vaccines and natural immunity only can play a limited role...DJ-In worldometers the US is over 500.000 Covid-deaths-but they include ALL overseas area's in the US numbers...Dr.J.C. it is very welcome US cases going down but still variants are a major concern. "A race between vaccines and variants" DJ-The reason why countries get Covid under control is NPI NOT vaccines...it is good vaccines are there but we still may need NPI, most of all travel restrictions-if we want to get this pandemic under control !

DJ-Also from the UK my impression is again reopening to soon can cause "major problems" -there could be even worse variants waiting for a chance..Here in NL bad weather did stop testing vaccination the last weeks for a few days-we may get unusual spring like weather this weekend-in the US winter is creating chaos in logistics...

(part 2-had to think...)

-Dr J.C. claims about 1/3 of UK population must have had Covid19-based on between 15/20% detected antibodies. DJ-Maybe that number of the population did see-most mild-infections. Still how well protected they are is very open !

-In UK (England) prevalence went down from 850,000 people being infected end of january to below 700,000 february 15. (DJ-You need to know what infection they have. In Germany in general-in the same time frame numbers came down but UK variant increased from 4 to 22% !). 

-UK number of deaths decreased also but still on average over 1000 UK Covid deaths per day. Between 40-45% of all deaths are Covid deaths...In disabled people men slightly disabled 1,9 women 2 times more likely to die. Severe disabled men 3,1 women 3,5 times more likely to die...DJ When you compare that also with deaths in elderly/carecenters, "minorities" (black, hispanic, asian) I find the picture is getting ugly...People with learning disability (in the UK-adjusted for age-most likely average other health) had 3,5 times more chance to die. DJ-The idea was NPI would offer protection to those most vulnarable...how well did that go ? Why such an "overkill" ? 

-Here in NL "young healthy professionals" are pushing for reopenings-when you look at the statistics they are much less likely to pay the prize for that. In Toronto-Canada medical authorities ask for longer lockdowns while politics is pushing for reopening [url]https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-covid-update-feb-17-1.5916588[/url] or https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-covid-update-feb-17-1.5916588 ; "I have never been as worried about the future as I am today," said de Villa. "While there is a downward trend in many key indicators, warning lights are flashing, too."..DJ-In NL if "reopening early march"-prior to march 17 parliamentry elections results in yet another wave end of march is that a crime ? Again simply based on statistics-with very limited sequencing the number of variants, the way they develop and spread is indicating a need for even more restrictions-politics are doing the opposite...We have to get the variants under control and the only way to do so is to get virus spread R0 to 0 "not just under 1" !!!! If we now fail in doing so-again "to save the economy" we may have to forget of getting this pandemic under control in the coming years...vaccines may-for the short term-help to prevent severe disease-but variants may undo that effect !!! The choice to deal with this pandemic as "a bussiness oppertunity for big pharma" may be proven insane !!! NPI could have stopped the pandemic in an early stage-at much lower economic cost. You can not stop a pandemic by vaccinations !!!! But that illusion is now the "political plan" -you need to have NPI/social distancing, strong travel restrictions (even if that means the end of airlines...) ...otherwise we could sink in a pandemic swamp !!!

- Zimbabwe getting large numbers of Sinofarm-Chinese vaccins, other vaccins from Russia, India, UK on their way. DJ-In the number of cases list worldometer-Zimbabwe is at 105-with just over 21,000 per 1 million tested a better indicator may be China detecting people frome Zimbabwe testing positive when entering China. Most likely lots of cases, lots of UK and SA variants...(Dr.J.C. once was hopefull Africa would somehow have immunity-but African CDC reported Africa above global average number of cases..) If the Chinese vaccins do something good in a country like Zimbabwe that would be very welcome ! The Sinofarm-vaccine is based on dead Covid19 viral material-also (Sinofarm claim) effective against SA variant..

-Israel- Dr.J.C. info 44 cases of SA variant (wikipedia SA-variant has-in my opinion the more realistic number of 80 for several days now-may be even higher..) of wich 3 re-infections. Israel-and many other countries-thinking of a "green certificate" giving more freedoms. DJ-There is a risk that such a "green card" experiment may see more asymptomatic spread (CDC already 59% of spread-DJ-at least-if Dr.J.C. claims 1/3 of UK population has had Covid19 based on antibodies). So if you want to go for "green cards"you have to link it with good testing ! Purim february 25 will see a lot of new cases in orthodox groups...

-France-SA/B variants 5% of new cases...(DJ UK variant 20+% of cases...) DJ France over 25,000 new cases february17-worldometers-list. Wikipedia SA variant numbers France 50 Mayotte-French Island near Madagascar 95 cases...but real numbers much higher...they had severe winter weather in France last week...so limited testing/vaccinations. Dr.J.C. vaccines going to regions with lots of SA/B variants...

-Vaccination gives stronger side effects if you have had a (mild) Covid infection, also in younger people and women. (DJ-Most vaccines now used on large scale have shown to have very limited side effects-if there would be many complications it would have shown by now...still it is possible some smaller groups of people do have more side effects-it would be good if monitoring picks that up and looks for a better fitting vaccine for those groups.) 

DJ-Vaccines can not end the pandemic. If that is the claim it is a false claim. [url]https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-00396-2 ; In January, Nature asked more than 100 immunologists, infectious-disease researchers and virologists working on the coronavirus whether it could be eradicated. Almost 90% of respondents think that the coronavirus will become endemic — meaning that it will continue to circulate in pockets of the global population for years to come (see 'Endemic future').

DJ-Vaccinations have an effect on viral-selection. It will most likely stop the spread of the "old variant"-but new variants also stop the old variant-take over the position in spread. The general idea is that virusses will get milder over time...Covid19 started somewhere in 2019 and new variants that do spread are "not milder" at least more infectious (and with higher numbers indirect causing more severe cases/deaths-hospital capacity will decrease due to HCW-ers getting infected). 

Via recombination new variants can become more dangerous. The only way to stop/slow down variants is social distancing. New vaccines may be able to deal with newer variants but may also create again selective pressure. It is good new vaccines may be better in stopping the SA/B/UK variants-but by the time those vaccines arrive most likely those variants have peaked...

So we can go on gambling "the virus will get milder one day" or we finally do what we should have done from the start go for working NPI-re-organize society to make it pandemic proof...

Music-Krezip-Everybody 's Got to Learn Some Time [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXyRyd_uW5s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LXyRyd_uW5s [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krezip[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krezip 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 18 2021 at 10:19pm

DJ,

-In latest news, new variants more on the [url]https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/finland-new-covid-19-strain-may-not-show-up-on-tests/2149931#[/url] or https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/finland-new-covid-19-strain-may-not-show-up-on-tests/2149931# on the Fin-796H variant (mutation or recombination). The bad news is it evades testing in some PCR tests...those tests often look at three segments of-in this case-the Covid19 virus. If a mutated form does not have those three segments the test is negative-while the person is infected and-in an early stage-spreading the disease. In some reports there seems to be a link between this Finnish variant (most likely-like the UK variant-detected there but started somewhere else) and hearthproblems..maybe this variant is able to do more damage to the hearth ? There is still a lot to learn from this variant. 

DJ-Spreading undetected could be one of the reasons why many countries-even with good testing-do not seem to find a lot of cases. In the UK some estimates-based on antibodies-claim 1/3 of the UK population may have been infected. Official tested/reported cases for the UK is just over 4 million out of the over 68 million UK population (so may be missing 19 million+ cases..)

I think there may be "a lot more" variants not being picked up by PCR testing...People with symptoms being told they must have an other disease...but maybe also often giving milder/no symptoms. It would be good to learn-by looking at older samples (most samples in many countries are saved for just one week/limited time and then disposed-let us hope there is a "library" of saved samples)-if there has been an increase of the "Finnish variant-like mutations" ...One problem of course is those tests were negative...If there are saved samples and "variants missing PCR testing" are increasing then "milder variants" would be increasing. This would be following the idea that over time virusses get milder...this Covid19 would become more a "cold-like" virus...(Allthough in the Finish detected case the patient did show symptoms-he/she may be the exceptance ?)

-[url]https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics[/url] or https://www.covid19genomics.dk/statistics DJ-Data the way I love it !!!

Denmark statistics on Covid-including variants (B1.1.7=UK variant..etc) and regions (Sjaelland is where Copenhagen is..) Behind the variants you can click for more info. Under the report earlier reports...No cases for P1-Brazil variant also clear info ! Very good !!!

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ DJ-Most countries have strong NPI one you still see (for two days now) close to 400,000 new cases, over 11,000 new deaths those numbers-with strict NPI-is very alarming. In many countries there is a growing "push"for reopenings...while the statistics, (new) variants indicate a need for more restrictions...The answer (with limited effect-DJ) is try to increase vaccinations...some problems. 

-It takes at least two weeks after a first vaccination-in most vulnarable longer) to offer some protection-most vaccines also need two vaccinations for best protection. To have the best effects we need to give the vaccination 1,5 to 2 months time to do its work...Worldwide we are below the 200 million vaccinations now-two months ago vaccination only did start on a very limited scale...

-The picture I am getting more and more variants show up evading at least to some degree vaccine/natural immunity. Even if reinfection numbers are limited (say 5% of all those who have some form of natural/vaccine immunity) there is a major problem. Not only do vaccines create "virus selection" (by being effective to some variants-giving still some room to other variants) also those reinfected do spread a variant that is not stopped-that far-by the vaccines...

-Good reporting/bad news on Ebola [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-tracking-guinea/907086-guinea-ebola-outbreak-2021-10-suspected-cases-incl-6-deaths/page3[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-tracking-guinea/907086-guinea-ebola-outbreak-2021-10-suspected-cases-incl-6-deaths/page3  In Guinea it did reach [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conakry[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conakry the capitol of Guinea with 2 million people living there. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-tracking-dem-republic-of-congo/906435-drc-2-fatal-cases-of-ebola-announced-onset-feb-1-contact-of-family-member-sick-in-previous-outbreak-february-7-2021-4th-cases/page2[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-tracking-dem-republic-of-congo/906435-drc-2-fatal-cases-of-ebola-announced-onset-feb-1-contact-of-family-member-sick-in-previous-outbreak-february-7-2021-4th-cases/page2 Also in D.R.Congo new ebola-cases (a.o. in a nurse) show up...

DJ It is very likely Covid19 variants (UK,SA, Nigeria, Brazil ?) are spreading in West Africa and DRC (Congo) region. Both ebola and Covid19 are RNA-virus diseases. I do not know what will happen if a person gets infected with both Covid19 (variant) AND Ebola ? Will some form of recombination show up ? How does that work out ? (If it would create a milder form of Ebola maybe for the region that may be "good news" but if that "milder form" is more infectious-for the world it may turn out to be "bad news" ...)

Since this post is getting long-already I do part 2 in a second post. Main conclusion is we need to get number of infections down-my impression is most that look at the health aspects agree with that view. But "economists, mental healthcare, shopowners"etc push for reopening. We will see the same mistakes being repeated...

DJ In other news [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/trump-gone-less-than-a-month-and-war-is-back-on-the-menu-boys-isis-returns-nato-to-announce-increase-in-troops-into-iraq[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/trump-gone-less-than-a-month-and-war-is-back-on-the-menu-boys-isis-returns-nato-to-announce-increase-in-troops-into-iraq 

DJ-My translation of hal turner; US is trying to keep Europe on its side by restarting wars in the Middle East...Iraq wants US forces out-so those forces may move to Syria-being replaced by NATO forces...The US-and Turkey-both have been training "moderate terrorists" in zones under their control. Turkey has even been deploying some of the jihadi's as a foreign legion in the Armenia/Azerbeijan conflict...IS is CIA initiative funded by Arab Gulf states and stealing oil. IS (a.o. boko haram in Nigeria, but active in many area's from Somalia, Ukraine, Kashmir, Yemen, Afghanistan, Indonesia, Philippines shows up where there is oil-latest actions in Mozambique-hindering Chinese oil exploration. ). CIA is still using IS to do the dirty work...Israel-in anti Iran operations-often functions as IS air force in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq.

Russia, Iran and China (RIC) have had enough of it and may decide it is time "to finnish" IS. They are capable of doing so-and may decide if that means "conflict with US, Saudi, NATO forces" that is a price they may need to pay...many countries want to get rid of foreign jihadi's and are willing to accept RIC aid in doing so...

[url]https://www.total-croatia-news.com/news/50254-sinkholes-in-petrinja[/url] or https://www.total-croatia-news.com/news/50254-sinkholes-in-petrinja In Croatia by now over 90 sink holes show up after a larger earthquake december 29. 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2021 at 1:47am

Part 2-DJ

We are on the crossroads with many people, countries, realizing Covid19 "may not go away soon".. In NL a group "herstel.nl" claiming to represent "economists, doctors, data-analists etc" want "to reopen society". Protection has to come from herd immunity, the most vulnarable ( any reasonable calculation has to put 1-in-4-so for NL over 4 million people) have to be "isolated/protected" so the other 3/4 "can regain freedom" and economy can do its thing...DJ-Like in climate "change" most likely these "groups" most likely are funded by "some with interests in restarting fossil fuel air travel, cars, tourism"...In NL only the neo-nazi "Forum for Democracy" is supporting their insane ideas...but it is very likely "pressure for reopening" will lead to much more "freedom" and "economic growth"...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/18/rotterdam-researchers-nose-spray-prevent-covid-infection[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/18/rotterdam-researchers-nose-spray-prevent-covid-infection DJ rapid testing (although the Finnish variant escapes some tests) and some NPI [url]https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-these-are-the-alternatives-to-curfew/[url] or https://innovationorigins.com/corona-in-europe-these-are-the-alternatives-to-curfew/ may "limit the damage"...

Of course [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-extreme-rate-of-global-warming-ipcc-oversights-of-future-climate-trends.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-extreme-rate-of-global-warming-ipcc-oversights-of-future-climate-trends.html you can always "change the models" so "no exponential growth but linear growth" in a model offers a lot of room. If you do not test you do not have to find out the model is wrong...Of course reality will show up soon.

Dr.John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr6Tn5DU_Sw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr6Tn5DU_Sw ;

-UK will infect volunteers to study how a corona infection works. DJ-We may learn a lot from following the developments-and interactions. Better treatments may be the result. DJ-What I get from Dr.J.C. story-90 people 18-30 years old. They will be vaccinated (with new vaccines ?) and research on effect of vaccines on variants (do they get infected with variants ?). Group of volunteers isolated 2,5 weeks-monitored 1 year (DJ or longer if need be ? Long/chronic Covid ?) DJ-As far as I know men may face more severe infection (have more ACE-2 receptors) women may face more risks of long-Covid (other) auto-immune reactions...

DJ-Again we may learn a lot-volunteers may be well informed of what they are getting into (I hope)..Dr.J.C. "Is it safe"? No-but we do the best we can to provide maximum care-and DJ monitoring them will be much better then average patients will get...Still I have my doubts...What if 10% of the test persons are dead within 12 months and another 10% is facing lifelong health problems ? I do like testing in/on animals but would that not be a better plan ? Would it be possible to do these kind of research on recently infected people ? (DJ-If I had to decide on this study I would be against it-to many risks...)

-Another UK study-outdoor spread of the old variant risk is very limited. There are risks if people use public toilets, go to bars (in the open air) but outdoor activity-for the old variant-may be quite safe...DJ-Still keep distance 1,5 to 2 meter-if there are lots of new variants maybe even more-or go out on quiet moments (early morning).  Of course masks can give extra safety.

-Why global cases are going down ? In the US (but also NL other countries decrease of testing-people "tired of Covid")-less testing is less (reported) cases...In the US some claim also the number of cycles in PCR tests going down (so less false positives-In PCR tests "you enlarge" the viral particles-if you do that to much (over 30 times) other corona-virus parts-non-Covid-may be seen as Covid19 DJ At least that is what I make of it...)

-In the US four factors play a major role in what to expect the coming months;

1 Vaccine acceptance is 71% (Dr.J.C. keeps expecting it to go up-DJ-Why ? It has been around 70% for some times..it may go up in the coming (summer) months a little but when cases decrease people may not change their views..)

2 Season effects (A DW report did claim more cases with symptoms in part could be explained by winter weather-mixing a cold with testing positive for Covid19..) nice weather may mean less cases..

3 Spread of variants (DJ-In some parts of Germany the UK variant is a problem. I do not see any reason why variants will not become a global problem soon...)

4 Transmission behaviour (less social distancing, masks etc) 

The US "modelmakers" find it hard to make a prediction. (DJ-My observation is people are less willing to accept restrictions-politics most likely will give in. Nice weather may help to keep cases limited but there are already lots of variants spreading, vaccinations are low in protecting-they need both more time (to give maximum protection) and more people vaccinated...Summer with climate change may bring high humidity or extreme dry air-that will have its effects on virus spread-but also on how humans will act. High humidity+ high temperature with an infected person already fighting to breathe may be deadly...hurricanes, extreme storms, wildfires and pandemics are "not a good mix"...) Restarting (air) travel is a major factor-we have to stop spreading variants...

US model makers expect from mid-march cases in the US will go up again for 4 to 6 weeks-200,000 new daily cases in the US early april. (DJ [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/18/rutte-likely-lockdown-will-relaxed-march-2[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/18/rutte-likely-lockdown-will-relaxed-march-2 "our" liberal-conservative PM would "love" to reopen-if he is even "on the brakes" for that it is quite likely "experts" are giving lots of warnings...the UK dossier with UK variants bring care in a crisis may have alarmed a lot of politicians...)

DJ Weather is an uncertain factor-if countries face a lot of rain more people will be indoors..Due to vaccinating the most vulnarable increase of cases does not mean the same increase of severe illness/deaths as seen before..Still US deaths in the model 616,000 june 1-2021...(today 505,000+ DJ-I think that number may be optimistic due to variants and limited vaccinations..)

Dr.J.C. goes on about vaccines being approved (J&J0 or countries going for Sputnik-V (Croatia)...In the US 59 million people supposed to be infected-on a population of over 331 million. Insurance in South Africa claims over 50% of SA population may have been infected...DJ Problem is part of immunity weakens after six months-increase of re-infections by variants...

Taiwan could not make a deal with Pfizer because BioNTech (Germany) already made a deal with China...DJ-Pfizer did get a bad press in Europe for asking 54€ per doses of their vaccine from the EU. Prices of both Pfizer and Moderna are an issue-way to expensive..also deep freeze vaccines not very practical...The only reasons why these two vaccines still play a major role in some countries is lack of alternatives...but both Russia, China, India may provide (much cheaper, practical) alternatives soon.

-"Nick" reported earlier on his vaccination being in chronic health issues. He did score "6 out of 10" for pain in his upper arm after three days. Also his 97 y/o grand dad died after vaccination end of 2020-died february 1 2021...But he may got Covid infection at the vaccination-site or in the hospital after a stroke 5 days after vaccination (if he was not already infected when he did go for vaccination). DJ-Vaccinations can become super spread events if they go wrong. (That is one of the reasons I am not happy with Pfizer-it is not that practical for small scale vaccinations...People may have to travel tens of miles to central vaccination posts other vaccines may come to the people...)

Dr.J.C. "vaccines are our way out" DJ-Covid19 will become endemic we may have to make the best of it and try to keep variants low..

Music, okay sort of [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Fn36l_z3WY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Fn36l_z3WY They're Coming to Take me away...




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 19 2021 at 9:43pm

DJ,

-The [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957%E2%80%931958_influenza_pandemic[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957%E2%80%931958_influenza_pandemic and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu each did kill between 1 and 4 million people worldwide (in about a year). The official reported/tested Covid deaths worldwide are getting close to 2,5 million. The real number of deaths is very likely to be above double the reported number-so 5 million+ (when one would look at excess deaths exclude other causes and correct for other factors). Given the global population is 7,845 million the estimated deaths is under 0,1% of that population (7,85 million). 

-In Europe borders are closing with UK variant outbreaks in a.o. Dunkirk in France close to the Belgian border. Flensburg in Germany close to Denmark. Poland is seeing an increase of cases. Here in NL cases are increasing again as well. The general impression is that "a third wave" can not be prevented-but it can be slowed down and be limited. 

In N.L. (New Labrador) Canada there also is a larger UK variant outbreak. The SA variant must be also be getting problematic in many places. 

It is good vaccines score well in preventing spread and preventing severe illness/deaths. But vaccinations go slow and variants will move faster. NPI has to stay...The duration of this pandemic is a problem in itself. Most experts think Covid19 will become endemic...stay. We can control local outbreaks by pinpointing NPI and vaccines. To get variants under control travel has to be limited. 

Governments have to switch to a long term strategy-and that will take time. Since we are also in a climate crisis some measures-reducing air travel, cleaner air-also fit in climate plans. Some variants escape from some PCR testing. The idea of "Green Cards" for those vaccinated-to reopen the economy-has its limitations. 

Many countries contribute to a global vaccination program-because pandemics-by definition-are a global problem. Most of the variants show up in countries "we keep poor". Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria (all three richer "poor" countries). 

It is getting more and more clear we will be in this pandemic this year. Vaccinating all people-and revaccinating them at a certain moment-is presented as the (Big Pharma) way out. The alternative-a sort of global lock down-is presented as "impossible" to much a burden for the economy...

In my view NPI is the ONLY strategy with vaccinations helping but not doing the job of ending the pandemic. If I am correct time will tell-but any delay will see many thousends of deaths per day...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907721-poland-entering-third-wave-of-covid-19-health-ministry-says[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907721-poland-entering-third-wave-of-covid-19-health-ministry-says ;  “Week-to-week we unfortunately see a 20% growth trend.”
He added that around 10% of COVID-19 cases in Poland were now the British variant.

DJ-The global third wave will be due to variants-most of them (mutated) UK variant but also the SA variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics (real numbers higher) is spreading fast. The Brazil variants also show up in more places. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream DJ-A point of discussion here is how do diseases spread in spring. Dry weather may give virusses more room to spread (low humidity makes the virus lighter). Also why "cases seem to be decreasing" . DJ Winterweather in many places may mean less people go testing. Also people getting "Covid-fatigue" or-in NL-limits on testing. In many countries you need to have either symptoms or contact with someone testing positive..eventhough most of the spread is a/pre symptomatic. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/907687-aids-res-hum-retroviruses-hiv-and-sars-cov-2-co-infection-a-systematic-review-of-the-literature-and-challenges[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/907687-aids-res-hum-retroviruses-hiv-and-sars-cov-2-co-infection-a-systematic-review-of-the-literature-and-challenges DJ-Limited data on co-infection of covid19 (variants) in HIV+ patients (must have happened a lot in southern Africa)-unclear results. Ebola is showing up in Africa again-coinfection of Ebola and Covid-variants will happen. How that works out time will tell...

-[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/decline-in-covid-infection-continues-first-vaccine-shot-proven-75pc-effective/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/decline-in-covid-infection-continues-first-vaccine-shot-proven-75pc-effective/ Israel may give indications on "can we vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic" ? (DJ-Vaccinations reduce spread, if 80/90% of population is vaccinated and variants are stopped enough, monitoring/testing is effective it would be very welcome if we "could vaccinate" ourselves out of the pandemic-with NPI as an extra if there is a (local) increase of cases..The biggest problem with vaccines is there are close to 8 billion people !)

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo2QQTmbECQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xo2QQTmbECQ ;

-Israeli study on 500.000 people getting one Pfizer vaccination-after 21 days 90%+ protection-almost 100% protection against severe disease/spread. Protection after first vaccination last 9 weeks (and slowly decreases the following months). Booster dose after 3 months is safe. Strategy of larger time gap between first and second vaccination is safe-allows to vaccinate more people in first months. DJ-Indications are also protecting against variants so far. Unclear yet how it effects variants selection-some variants may be better in evading vaccines-will vaccines create a problem in "pushing a variant" that can overcome defenses/immunity ?DJ WHO numbers 75% of vaccines going to 10 countries... 

-Japan 91 cases of (484 mutation) UK variants (also at least 1 SA variant)-most in Tokyo. Vaccination not started in Japan. Large cities-still insane idea of "olympics"...

-UK new cases still high-over 12,000 per day. Dr.J.C. UK close to 130,000 Covid deaths (worldometers under 120,000). Also "US cases down"-DJ I do not expect much testing in Texas with the "winter crisis"...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ DL When I look at US testing three states above 2 million tests per 1 million population-but 6 states under 500,000 tests per million. Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania under 1 million tests per million. UK has 1,2 per 1, Russia 0,741 per 1, France 0,753 per 1, Germany 0,510 per 1, NL 0,401 per 1-should testing not increase ?  There is discussion on "fatigue and headache" as Covid symptoms for testing-the reason why they are not included is that in most cases it will not be related to Covid19...Employers in NL claim reopening the economy would be possible by 650,000 tests per day in NL. So far in NL ALL of this pandemic we had under 7 million tests since march 2020...(and again-some variants may not be picked up by some testing methods).

-Dr.J.C. vaccinations will mean less severe cases/deaths in the coming third wave. Vaccination the most vulnarable will offer protection. DJ-In NL we get close to 1 million vaccinations-most Pfizer-on a population of 17,5 million. But hospital cases are increasing-vaccinations may not have been in time to protect all vulnarables. We will find out how vaccination works out against variants the coming months...

-Vaccine supply is still an issue in many places. DJ-Germany was ready for large scale mass vaccination early january-but did not get the amount of vaccines they expected...Also practical issues-if people have to travel miles to get vaccinated, or face unsafe vaccination spots-there are still problems. [url]https://www.rt.com/russia/516125-third-coronavirus-vaccine-covivac/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/russia/516125-third-coronavirus-vaccine-covivac/ Russia, China, India may become global vaccine players-cheap, easy to use/store (why did Pfizer now come up with their vaccine also can be stored at -20 instead of -70C ???? This did cost lives !). 

-Countries "donating vaccines they do not need" to "countries we keep poor" DJ-have to do better ! There has to be a plan to use those vaccines-have a vaccination program. Not dump vaccines in a storage place in a port where they will become useless...

-Dr.J.C.; we have been lucky with this virus-another virus may have spread faster or bring more severe disease...UK-PM 100-day-plan-if a new pandemic shows up in 100 days we need to have a vaccine (sort of "rapid response")...DJ-We also need to "rethink/reorganize"society to make it more pandemic proof (and that may be a good combination with climate plans !). Do we need the mobility we had till 2020 ? With 10% of the population flying all over the planet ? Do we need to increase basic public healthcare ? (DJ-Is healthcare, housing, a decent job/income, education not a human right ?)

-Dr.J.C. did get a Pfizer vaccine thursday-in a nearby care center they had more vaccines then people that could be vaccinated so they contacted people in the area and Dr.J.C. did get his first Pfizer-vaccination-no complaints. He will not use paracetemol/ibuprofen if some mild issues show up. It is part of the body creating immunity. Russian study also warns against alcohol in the first weeks-also may weaken the immune response...

DJ-There is a growing need to have more openings-shops, schools...vaccination may give some room in combination with NPI (masks, social distancing)...we have to find a balance...Testing has to increase-also "testing the tests" how good are they in picking up virusses. Another issue is Covid in children-MIS-C longer term health issues...In the US most black people do not trust vaccines...orthodox groups in many countries may not want to go for vaccines...

Yes variants will start a third wave. I expect "newer variants" to show up-besides the known UK/SA/B variants...spring is coming for most of us. 

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_xIBfrdxQU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_xIBfrdxQU Minnie Riperton - Loving You The sound of birds chirping was accidentally recorded but was kept because it worked really well. On the day of recording there were birds chirping on the roof of the studio.

DJ-Is that Cat Stevens on the guitar ? 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2021 at 10:08am

That is actually Minnie's husband, Richard Rudolph on the guitar https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lovin%27_You.  The song was written for her baby daughter, Maya Rudolph, who grew and became an actress, appearing in one of my favorite films, The Way, Way Back, as well as portraying Kamala Harris on Saturday Night Live.  On the unedited version of Lovin' You, you can hear Minnie singing "Maya, Maya" lengthily during the fade at the end of the song, but this was cut short for the edited version, due to fears it might sound overdone and be construed as a religious chant.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2021 at 1:52pm

*loving you"

one of my all time favorites, Minnie had a fantastic voice/range,great American Ambassador ,

 taken long before her time, R.I.P. Minnie....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 20 2021 at 9:41pm

Yes, Minnie Riperton...I guess a lot of men looked like Cat Stevens at that time...

DJ-Horror [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-coronabola-mix-tape-thread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-coronabola-mix-tape-thread is the best word describing ebola/covid mixing in Congo (?). The other diseases showing up-most likely due to healthcare being overstretched. If there is no capacity at all how you will find out if a person may be infected by [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nipah_virus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nipah_virus or Covid19 ? 

Lack of global sequencing may unable detection of most Covid variants but also miss lots of other diseases...

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907795-iran-closes-iraq-border-points-to-stem-spread-of-coronavirus-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/907795-iran-closes-iraq-border-points-to-stem-spread-of-coronavirus-variant the (mutated) UK variant ? [url]https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/02/20/645680/Iran-poultry-cull-severe-bird-flu[/url] or https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2021/02/20/645680/Iran-poultry-cull-severe-bird-flu DJ-If the h5n8 virus jumped to humans in Russia (causing mild disease no H2H (Human to Human) infections-so far) why does that virus not jump to humans in Iran, NL or any other country dealing with H5N8 ? Flatrackers latest news also has reports from South Korea, Poland, Estonia, UK with H5N8 so far only in birds...Indonesia, South Korea, Phillippines also reporting [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_swine_fever_virus DJ-weak sick pigs may get all kind of infections that can become a risk for humans...There may have been a relation-indirect-with African Swine Fever (ASF) widespread in China 2018/19 and Covid19 showing up. (DJ-Bats-pigs-humans-link ? With pigs being burried alive to deal with the ASF outbreak overloking the Covid in pigs ? )

"Coronabola" is a "nice new name" for a possible nightmare...humans have been pushing the limits for decades...did we go over a "pandemic treshold" and may expect a number of pandemics ? Even more reason to go for minimum air travel and social distancing...

-A look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ gives an indication "where "good old Covid" and its variants are spreading. France over 20,000 new cases per day. UK variant in NW France, SA/B variant cases reported in the east of France...Brazil still high numbers-very likely P1 and P2 variants spreading inside Brazil. 

An "updated undercount"of the SA variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics (with all respect to the makers of the wikipedia-page on this subject-they are doing a job the WHO/CDC should be doing !). The SA variant-in reality-is widespread and most likely spreading faster then the "old UK variant"...if some variants do not cause more severe disease themselves then the larger numbers will do the deadly job...

DJ-The grim reality is that yes-we may be facing "lots of potential pandemics in the early stages". We have to be aware of that and maximize safety rules. (Keep poultry inside, switch away from meat consumption to alternatives-would also help in climate plans and stop cruelty against (fellow)animals..and please STOP TRAVEL !!!!!)

-With all respect for Dr. John Campbell but his video's are "a good news show" on "how vaccines will save the world"...He has a lot of good info-but "to save the world" much more action is needed urgently-because developments are gaining speed in the wrong direction ! [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=is7XpudFGJ8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=is7XpudFGJ8 ;

-US strategy of going for two vaccinations was based on "old"data-NEJM last day of 2020 showed just over 50% protection after first vaccination (with Pfizer or Moderna). But two weeks after the first vaccination protection is 92%-the NEJM dec-31 study also included the first two weeks after vaccination-the vaccine needs time to do its work. (DJ-The older you get the slower immune response-so old people may need up to three weeks to get the best protection. Question is do men score worse in getting infected after that time-the 7-8% that do still get infected ? What are the risk factors ? Age, gender, BMI, smoking ? Or is that not very clear yet ?).

The UK strategy of going for mass vaccination by a first vaccine-jab in this pandemic may double vaccination protection. (DJ-In NL care centers even after two vaccinations now there is still a lot of restrictions. One visitor per day etc. Those restrictions may be lifted after the last person willing to get vaccinated did get his vaccination plus three/four weeks ? Or is it needed to have still (some) restrictions due to variants ?)

Dr. J.C. both UK and US could be vaccinating 3 to 4 times faster if supply was not a problem. NEJM US should go for the UK strategy with a three month gap between first and second vaccination. Can save (tens of) thousends of lives. DJ many other countries should follow the UK example...

-New Zealand started (Pfizer)vaccination, Australia starting monday. First groups are those that come in contact with people getting into the country. Goal is to limit risks of people working at (air)ports getting infected and spreading the virus/variants...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics Both Australia and New zealand have (at least) 19 SA variants (most of them detected at entry). Since population is limited and AZ/O vaccine will be produced in Melbourne vaccinating all of the population within a few months should be realistic. DJ Will also decrease risk of variants spread-still every reason to keep good border control and monitoring !

-It is very welcome Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine can be stored at freezer temperature-stay in a fridge for 5 days...Dr.J.C. also wonders how the got this new view. DJ-The -60/80C storage was making the vaccine unpractical-made vaccination a harder job. Still when you look at prices many countries will go for alternatives...(Most vaccines are made in India, but also Russia and China-of course-want to show the world their vaccines...)

-Vaccine pasports may help restarting the economy...DJ-Covid19 and its variants are not the only risks...unlimited travel for some is asking for problems (virus fly for free). One of the lessons we should learn from this pandemic is that travel restrictions are pandemic restrictions ! If we want to get ready for other pandemics we have to change the way we behave !!!! So less (long distance) travel and less/no meat would be a good start...somehow that message did not become practice yet...

-There is a story of the king of eSwatini/Swaziland getting (traditional Chinese) medication from Taiwan. DJ-Some of Chinese traditional medication include what is seen as risk factors in western medical science. You do not want to start another pandemic based on "traditional medication"!

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antigenic_shift (DJ-recombination may be just another word for it) did show up with a person getting the UK AND California variant. Recombination may have started this pandemic. The more variants the bigger the chance of a person getting infected by variants at the same time-creating newer variants...DJ-It is very likely-based on statistics-a host (maybe not human) may have been infected with THREE or even more variants-with also mistakes/mutations showing up-the outcome could be a new variant further away-making a larger jump-from the known variants. Dr.J.C. does not mention Covid variants mixing with other (RNA) diseases (like Ebola)... but that is a very real bad scenario ! However like mutations-recombination is a "big mutation" in most cases the outcome is a weaker virus that can not spread better..

DJ-At least two major problems with this Covid pandemic; the number of infections must be in the hundreds of millions if not in billions (with minks still getting infected a.o. in Poland..very likely still spreading in other species) and the duration of this pandemic...It is very human to "get tired of it all" good communications are needed...and missed. 

My impression is experts-and we now have the best virologists, epidemologists, modelmakers etc the world has ver seen-are often surprised by this corona-virus. Most of them-and people with an interest-did expect flu to become the next pandemic. That a corona-virus could start a pandemic is one thing-but still be an even increasing risk after over one year must be "shocking the experts"!

DJ-Politics has its own responsibilities. Based on limited information they have to make choices. The only wise choice is to admit that there is a growing global healthrisk and we have to reorganize society. That means painfull choices. There is only a very limited future for airtravel-so millions of jobs at airlines, aircraft builders will end. But we do need extra hands in healthcare..we have to make a transfer from fossil fuel to durable energy...so those people are needed elsewhere very hard-investments are needed there too. 

Again climate change already was a problem before the pandemic started. Other pandemics may get more chance with this being stretching healthcare worldwide. And there are things we CAN do !!! Less meat production would limit both pandemic and climate risks ! Cleaner air by people going on a bike in cities-where most people live-increases also their health (and cities should not be parking places with houses on it !!!). We can and should reduce global risks NOW !!!

Music Cat Stevens [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZAsfB1Np-8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uZAsfB1Np-8 Morning has broken...







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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2021 at 1:36am

DJ part newsdump/part background;

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cathay-pacific-exempts-rich-passengers-wearing-face-masks[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cathay-pacific-exempts-rich-passengers-wearing-face-masks DJ-For financial reasons there will be a lot "of flexibilty" creating further inequality and higher risk of virusspread. Some of the rich have houses in many places-(with householdstaff) "you can not stop people from coming home" but the problems is their "home" is all around the globe...

DJ-Are the "rich 1%"above any law ? Well they are certainly not above the law of nature ! Most of the pandemic can be related to a rich elite doing a lot of the flying...

-[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/02/first-human-cases-of-h5n8-bird-flu.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/02/first-human-cases-of-h5n8-bird-flu.html

"The data on the first case of the infection of humans with the A(H5N8) flu have already been sent to the World Health Organization. This happened a few days ago, as soon as we became absolutely confident in our results," she said."The Vector Center of the Federal Service for Surveillance on Consumer Rights Protection and Human Wellbeing has already added to the international GISAID database the data of whole-genome sequencing of the (H5N8) virus with those mutations that allowed it to cross the interspecies barrier," she added.

239 human cases of H5N1 bird flu have been reported in China and Southeast Asia since 2003, killing 134 people, according to WHO. More recently, two people in China were infected with H5N6 bird flu in January, resulting in the death of a three-year-old girl. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported one new case of human infection with avian influenza A(H9N2) virus in China during the first week of 2021. The case was a 1-year-and 4-month-old male from Yunfu, Guangdong Province, China, who had exposure to domestic poultry prior to the onset of illness. He developed mild symptoms on 28 December 2020 and was admitted to a hospital on 29 December. As of 4 January 2021, no family cluster was reported. This is the 2nd case to be reported from China in 2021.

DJ -H5N8 jumping to people in Russia will very likely not be limited to Russia once...It is good data on these human H5N8 cases are known in a global databank. But the risk of further cases and further development of H5N8 into humans (or pigs ?) is real. 

-[url]https://www.rt.com/news/516147-global-covid-19-cases-plummet/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/news/516147-global-covid-19-cases-plummet/

While new cases have increased by 11 percent in the Middle East, they are down by 28 percent in the US and Canada, by nine percent in Africa, Asia and Europe and by seven percent in Latin America and the Caribbean. 

Portugal cut its new cases by over half, to 2,100 new cases reported per day while Iraq saw a spike of 62 percent in new cases, to 2,900 per day. 

-

SARS-CoV-2 belongs to a family of human coronaviruses which thrives in colder, less humid weather, with decreased transmission in warmer, more humid months. 

The researchers compared and contrasted daily low-temperature data against recorded new Covid-19 cases in 50 countries in the Northern Hemisphere between January 22 and April 6, 2020. 

As temperatures rose, the rate of new cases decreased, and vice versa. 

-

Although Covid-19 is an infectious disease that will have non-temperature-dependent transmission, our research indicates that it also may have a seasonal component,” said co-author Aruni Bhatnagar.

These insights reinforce pre-existing ideas about the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and other seasonal viruses, and may inform future public policy as the world opens up in the coming months as vaccine deployment begins in earnest. 

It may also have implications for travel between the northern and southern hemispheres, with their opposing seasons, as well as for the development of future generations of Covid-19 vaccines.

DJ-There are many reasons why global cases go down-less testing (due to winter, Covid-fatigue). Testing only symptomatic cases is a mistake often made-with around 60% a/pre symptomatic spread. Brazil shows warm weather does not stop virusspread-variants may be less influenced by the season. 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream has also good info on humidity (Iran had very different conditions then Brazil-the virus/variants are "not impressed") also on "herd immunity" ideas. DJ-with variants moving faster then vaccines...we need to keep virusspread low. In Germany the R0 is 1,09 in the latest numbers-most due to the UK variant...It is more and more likely we will see a third wave-even with many restrictions trying to keep infections down. This third wave is far more dangerous then the earlier waves...with variants co-infecting in host creating even more variants. But also with other diseases (Ebola, the plague, H5N8 ) "getting more room"...

DJ-We may be moving to the worst part of the pandemic still-have to forget about "herd immunity" and be happy if vaccinations offer at least some protection...

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/the-no-change-presidency.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/the-no-change-presidency.html

After a month as president Joe Biden has already broken several major campaign promises.

There will be:

  • No $2,000 checks.
  • No minimum wage rises.
  • No student debt forgiveness.
  • No halting of deportations.
  • No end of the war on Yemen.
  • No return to the JCPOA.

As Alan MacLeod summarizes:

Biden began his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination in June 2019 at a Manhattan hotel, telling wealthy donors that “nothing would fundamentally change” under his presidency. After one month in office, it appears as if that is one campaign promise he is likely to keep.

The U.S. will also continue its wars on Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.

We are left to guess where, not if, Biden will start another one.

DJ-One would like to believe elections can make a change. And for the US biden does take dealing with the pandemic much more serious then trump did. biden may take more notice of "other players" and be more aware of the limits the US has. He does take climate change more serious-but if that changes policies ? [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/nato-deployments-to-iraq-are-supposed-to-put-pressure-on-iran-they-will-instead-become-hostages-.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/nato-deployments-to-iraq-are-supposed-to-put-pressure-on-iran-they-will-instead-become-hostages-.html 

DJ-This pandemic has an element of racism and it is good to be aware of that. It "started in China" with three major problems in the C.C.P. they were Chinese, Communist (at least in name) and "Party=politics"-three "dirty words"...Chinese reports by their scientists most at first were ignored by "the west" because as "superior whites" we knew better...

The "cold war"element is also a major factor in this pandemic. Western (for profit) vaccines are NOT meant to increase influence in other countries but Russian and Chinese vaccines "are almost a power grab"..Iran and Cuba working together on vaccines proberbly breaks US "justified sanctions" because of "Cuban/Iran" "agression and support for terrorism"...While it was the US that invaded Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan etc...

All kind of diseases are widespread in Africa-but no problem for "the west" (or the Chinese expecting Africa to dump English/French from their old colonizers to start speaking Chinese with their new "win-win partners"...). Allthough I do not think Ebola was started by bio-warfare programs of the US and china-as some claim-there were test-trials on "cures" no western country would except. 

The conflict between Russia (moving east) and the US (moving west) could have ended when the US did buy "Russian America" in 1867 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Purchase but it did not...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2021 at 9:48pm

DJ,

I do not see a new Dr.John Campbell video so this story could be a bit shorter. Still enough news/ideas...

-In my last writing I was discussing the tension-still making global cooperation in this pandemic harder-between "the west" Russia and China. I do not believe these "tensions" have much to do with "ism's"-both Russia and China may be more "nationalism" then they ever were "communism"...The west has a history of mixing racism with religion. Slavery was based on the idea that if you were not a christian you were an animal. Islam-basicly-had the same idea-both religions had/have many different faces. 

Another idea that has been around long time is the idea of "race"-the color of the skin, form of the eye, would say something about being civilized and intelligent. As Dr.J.C. did repeat several times white people did get white skins when they moved "out of Africa" to get more vitamin D out of UV-B/sunlight. DJ-the idea of different human races has neen a tactic to "divide and rule". 

Somehow in human history focussing on differences in religion, language, habits, skincolor has been a red line making the human species-on the long run-weaker not stronger. 

Tension between "the west" and Russia may go back to the Wiking history of Russians...but proberbly most wikings did integrate with the western European population. China has a history of a permanent struggle to keep their empire together and invaders out...The west is always loking for "trade" from spices to oil, cheap labor...food.

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-coronabola-mix-tape-thread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-coronabola-mix-tape-thread ; The World Health Organization today (Sunday) took the first step in fighting a possible outbreak of the ‘Nipah’ virus, which causes an incurable disease that kills two-thirds of patients, and put the virus on a list of pathogens that endanger humanity.

DJ-Most of history people were very aware of their limits. Wars, lack of food, natural disasters, pandemics till 1900 did limit life expectency to 40 years...Dead was daily company...most countries in 2020 were out of this phase...but in the long run the way most modern people could live was the very AB-NORMAL !!!! A global (human) population of almost 8 billion is the outcome of very unusual good conditions since the 1950's...

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  When I look at the new cases list I notice #16 Israel still 5530 new cases. At #20 Jordan almost 4000 new cases ! At #42 the small Albania 1184 new cases on a population of just over 2,8 million...Southern African countries (Mozambique at #54, Zambia #56 ) over 600 new cases (with hardly any testing)-this may indicate the SA variant spreading further in that region...[url]https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.351.html[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.351.html 

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ah/907948-ituri-at-least-527-cases-of-plague-with-32-deaths-notified-in-8-health-zones[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ah/907948-ituri-at-least-527-cases-of-plague-with-32-deaths-notified-in-8-health-zones The (Democratic Republic of) Congo reporting (at least) 527 cases of the plague. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-tracking-dem-republic-of-congo/906435-drc-ebola-6-cases-including-4-deaths/page3[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/ebola-tracking-dem-republic-of-congo/906435-drc-ebola-6-cases-including-4-deaths/page3 Also Ebola-cases going up...DJ Several diseases now show increases (African Swine Fever-in pigs, but H5N8 made it first jump into humans from birds in Russia-H5N8 is widespread...lots of other diseases may increase due to healthcare running out of capacity in many countries..)

-Here in NL we have nice-spring weather, sunny record warm. This may decrease cases...or at least slow down the increase of cases. This part of Europe is seeing more (most UK) variant cases...vaccinations still have supply issues...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/21/curfew-extended-march-23-high-schools-hairdressers-reopen-report[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/21/curfew-extended-march-23-high-schools-hairdressers-reopen-report DJ-We have to move to a long term strategy-not only in NL but worldwide. Politics has the major job in setting rules-but people also make their own decissions. Hotels, apartmentbuildings (elevators) may become less popular...people now want to have a break but stay in the region most. (Some countries that have tourism as a main source of income will run into problems...but their hotels offer better housing then most people in those countries now do have...)

DJ-I expect to get vaccinated within some months, be able to visit restaurants, cinema's, hotels-with some restrictions-this year. One of the limitations may be a "green card/proof of vaccination". I think governments have to realize such a "green card" has many limitations-even vaccination is no 100% certainty one does not spread a virus...Variants will keep showing up-but it should be possible to detect them earlier and then limit the region where the variant is showing...Vaccinations may keep healthcare out of problems-but travel has to be very limited to try to keep variants out ! So far the problem was in the human factor much more then in the virus !

Boosting immunity-vitamin D etc-try to keep a good condition but physical and mental can decrease health risks. I believe in preventative healthcare-avoiding illness is much cheaper then curing the ill...so I hope better checks to find illness earlier is around the corner. But we have to change the way we live-from pandemics to climate change-we-as humans-are main actors !

Music; Barry Manilow One Voice [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKPWzLgvgW4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKPWzLgvgW4 (ViQueen24 thanks for the info on Loving You/Minnie Riperton !)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2021 at 10:52pm

Israel with over 49% vaccinated is starting to lift restrictions.   https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-56143126


Here in Finland we are only around 5.2% vaccinated (as of 21st Feb), so a long way to go.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 21 2021 at 11:18pm

EdwinSm-Finland may get interesting; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/907769-what-little-we-currently-know-about-the-fin-796h-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/907769-what-little-we-currently-know-about-the-fin-796h-variant link to [url]https://www.foreigner.fi/articulo/coronavirus/finnish-authorities-concerned-about-spread-of-covid-19-variants/20210218200418010317.html[/url] or https://www.foreigner.fi/articulo/coronavirus/finnish-authorities-concerned-about-spread-of-covid-19-variants/20210218200418010317.html ;

Health authorities have identified the first case of the Brazilian variant, known as P.1. So far, a total of 450 cases of the new variants have been confirmed in the country, most of them in the Helsinki region.

The number of Covid-19 cases have remained at the same "relatively high level across Finland," over the past four weeks, the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health said in its latest monitoring report on the epidemic.

According to the assessment of the health authorities, about 2,300–2,700 new cases are reported every week. The number of people requiring hospital care has remained relatively stable, but the need for intensive care has increased slightly in the past few days. The weekly number of deaths from coronavirus is decreasing slowly.

The epidemiological situation is characterised by great and rapidly changing regional differences. Especially in the capital region, the situation has deteriorated further. Between 1 and 14 February, the incidence of new cases during the 14-day period was 186 per 100,000 inhabitants in the Hospital District of Helsinki-Uusimaa, while in the whole country it was 91 per 100,000 inhabitants. In some places in the Greater Helsinki area, there is a backlog in tracing contacts of Covid-19 cases, the Health Ministry says.

Finnish authorities are particularly concerned about the new British variant spreading to Finland. So far, 450 cases of the new variants have been confirmed in the country. Of these, 427 were cases of the UK variant and 22 of the South African variant. One travel-related case of the Brazilian variant, known as P.1, has been identified in Finland so far.

The new virus variants also raise concern especially in Uusimaa. Slightly over 70% of the cases of the UK variant were reported in the Hospital District of Uusimaa and Helsinki.

DJ Helsinki region has almost 1,3 million people of the 5,5 Finland population. Covid19 and urban spread has to be linked since most people worldwide live in urban regions. It is unclear what the "Finland variant" is doing-most of what is known/showing up in statistics could be related to any variant or even effect sub-groups in the population. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2021 at 1:52am

It does seem to be spreading in Finland now.  At least I have no cause to go to the capital region.


You have commented about lack of testing in Africa.  The BBC has an article on the lack of recording deaths in many places, which means that using "excessive deaths" as a gauge for corvid deaths cannot be used in much of the continent.  The article has charts for Egypt and South Africa (two countries with reasonable data) which shows just how under-reported this outbreak is. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55674139

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2021 at 6:22am

EdwinSm, thanks for the link-good info ! From the BBC article; Only eight African countries out of more than 50 have a compulsory system to register deaths, a BBC investigation has found.

A Lancet study across 118 low-income and middle-income countries estimated that the continued disruption of health systems from Covid-19 could result in 1,157,000 additional child deaths and 56,700 additional maternal deaths.

South Africa and Egypt are among the eight countries which do have functioning death registers, so calculating excess deaths in both countries is possible, and the results are telling.

By early February, South Africa had recorded nearly 138,000 excess deaths since the pandemic began - that is almost three times the official figure given for Covid-19 deaths.

To break it down: 46,200 of these people were officially recorded as having died with coronavirus and there are death certificates to prove it.

This means the other 91,500 were either undiagnosed, or died as an indirect consequence of the pandemic such as delayed cancer treatment or fear of going to hospital.

Thanks to Egypt's comprehensive registration system, it is possible to calculate that there were more than 68,000 excess deaths between May and August last year. 

In 14 countries a maximum of only one in 10 deaths are recorded, including in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon.

Over half of the countries in sub-Saharan Africa only keep handwritten death records.

Certain states, such as Eritrea and Burundi, have no legal requirement to register or collate deaths at all.

Nigeria has recorded nine Covid-19 deaths per million, compared to the global average of 316.

Meanwhile, South Africa has recorded 827 Covid-19 deaths per million and Tunisia 659 - the two highest in Africa.

But it is important to take into account that these countries have good registers that capture most deaths - 92% and 95% of the population, respectively.

DJ The total African population is [url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/ 1,362 million. If you would take the global average of covid deaths and translate the 316 dpm (worldometers has 318,1) on the African population one would see (1326 million:1000000 (=1326)x318.1=421,800 deaths. But say excess deaths is 750 per million then (1326x750=)994,500...Worldometers put the official reported/tested Covid deaths for Africa at 101,501. 

DJ-I think when you look at excess deaths, not reported deaths, the real number of deaths may be close to 5 million. 

[url]https://www.who.int/healthinfo/civil_registration/en/[/url] or https://www.who.int/healthinfo/civil_registration/en/

A well-functioning civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system registers all births and deaths, issues birth and death certificates, and compiles and disseminates vital statistics, including cause of death information. It may also record marriages and divorces.

Despite the well-documented benefits of CRVS, many countries do not have adequate systems in place. The births of tens of millions of children are known to be unregistered every year, and it is estimated that two-thirds of deaths are never registered and are thus not counted in the vital statistics system.

DJ-If basic reporting of births, deaths etc is a problem in most of the countries it may be very hard to detect "pandemic hot-spots"...It is very likely  lots of cases-and variants-are missed. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 22 2021 at 9:47pm

DJ

-[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread.Importantly, there are very likely more human infections with H5N8 avian flu if the genetic sequence of the H5N8 virus causing the infections in these seven humans is the same as the H5N8 virus outbreaks in some of the 17 other European and 4 Middle East nations reported since October 2020 by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (see Table for nation-by-nation listing). ....https://sciencespeaksblog.org/2021/0...rakhan-region/

It is very likely more cases of human catching H5N8 did/do happen. If the Russian claim of mild disease and no further spread via human contact is correct the damage is "limited for now"...The H5N8 virus is spread by birds...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N8[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N8 DJ [url]https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/16/10/10-0508_article[/url] or https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/16/10/10-0508_article A 2010 study is indicating pigs can catch the H5 virusses. Most likely other mammals are able to get infected as well. If it is not jumping from mammal to mammal yet this is only a matter of time...

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH1XeEx1b1I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QH1XeEx1b1I ;

-A study showing in Scotland first vaccinations offer over 90% protection against Covid19. DJ-We knew that allready from Israel...problem is variants may be able to evade vaccins. Still even if a vaccine could offer 50-60% protection from getting infected and a lot more for getting severe disease AND slowing down the spread of the virus vaccines can make a difference if enough people get vaccinated...Besides that you need good monitoring for variants, other diseases etc. 

-A report from Dr.Nigel from Perth-Western Australia (35-37C ) on Australia roll-out of vaccines. DJ Main point is Melbourna factory has capacity to produce (AZ/O) vaccines...I do not believe the first round of vaccinations will be enough to get this pandemic under control. From "booster shots" to variant-vaccines may be needed. If you want to deal with a global problem you need a global level of production. 

Flu vaccines may help against H5N8 if that becomes a problem-if possible one should try to avoid the problem ! Again-we have to learn more from this pandemic then just spend billions on Big Pharma for vaccines...!

-[url]https://www.debka.com/israel-victim-of-own-success-eased-covid-restrictions-evoke-mutiny/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/israel-victim-of-own-success-eased-covid-restrictions-evoke-mutiny/

Stage 2 of Israel’s exit from its third lockdown on Sunday, Feb. 21 – and its falling covid infection – were greeted by a joyous mass assault on the reopened malls whlle also schools jumped the gun to reopen more classes. By Sunday, three million Israelis had received both vaccination shots. New cases had dropped to below two thousand for the first time in weeks, positive tests to 6.5pc and serious hospital cases were down to 858. Deaths continue to rise and stood and 5,521. Pools, gyms and theaters were back – albeit only for bearers of vaccination certificates or proof of recovery from virus infection.

But the health authorities, though encouraged, were grimly braced for the Purim festival this coming weekend, fearing that the good work performed by the lockdown and vaccinations would be undone by the traditional rollicking fancy-dress Purim parties for children and grownups and the gatherings in synagogues for the ceremonial reading of the Book of Esther.

These same Purim events triggered Israel’s first serious outbreak of coronavirus exactly a year ago. Nonetheless, shopkeepers while still closed for business stocked up on fancy costumes, large and small. They were snatched up on Sunday by customers spoiling for a treat after months of gloomy constraints.

DJ-Israel may be interesting to follow. With "limited reopening" , elections, religion mixed how good will vaccinations work out ? Also from the same story; Another form of defiance was directly responsible for the tragic loss of life. A woman of 32, mother of four, was in advanced pregnancy when she was struck down with coronavirus and died in hospital. The doctors could not save her baby. This was the third such case since October. It emerged later that she was influenced by an anti-vaccination movement established by her brother-in-law, which maintained that the drugmakers’ clinical trials of their vaccines did not cover pregnant women. After her death, he has abandoned the movement. Meanwhile some 70pc of pregnant women have opted to avoid vaccination and 50 are in hospital with the virus and 10 in critical condition. They have defied the health authorities advice to expectant mothers to get inoculated, since coronavirus is immediately dangerous while the vaccine’s possible after-effects are hypothetical or non-existent.

-Somehow a lot of the writing is gone...Its is good Australia has capacity to produce vaccines in large numbers-we will need them for booster vaccines, variant-vaccines but also against H5N8 etc flu..

Reopening in the UK with England R0 of 0,9 and Wales, Scotland R0 of 1, limited vaccinations and variants spreading may prove to be a mistake. Yet not only the UK is reopening, lots of other countries as well-with even less vaccinations. UK variant becoming dominant..

Other diseases may become a problem soon-we fail to learn a lesson from this pandemic. 

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/02/snowstorms-breach-of-arctic-vortex-and-the-effects-of-ice-meltwater-on-the-oceans.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/02/snowstorms-breach-of-arctic-vortex-and-the-effects-of-ice-meltwater-on-the-oceans.html Climate "change" is a motor behind pandemics-and basicly we keep ignoring that...

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO1rMeYnOmM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO1rMeYnOmM Jim Groce Time in a Bottle 1973..

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 23 2021 at 10:03pm

DJ, 

The Dutch example; [url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/measures-prevent-more-rapid-increase[/url] or https://www.rivm.nl/en/news/measures-prevent-more-rapid-increase ; good long story-NL R0 increasing last week from 0,96 to 0,99 The UK variant is increasing to over half the cases R0, 1,14

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/23/coronavirus-infections-average-rises-4300[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/23/coronavirus-infections-average-rises-4300 DJ-The numbers indicate we are at the beginning of a third wave-still;

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/23/rutte-curfew-extended-restrictions-relaxed-behavior-matters[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/02/23/rutte-curfew-extended-restrictions-relaxed-behavior-matters . "restrictions relaxed" the only reason political analists can think of is the coming march 17 elections...

PM Rutte if cases do increase-as expected "can show himself to be a strong leader" and win votes, if cases decreases "his policies are a succes"...In the press meeting all lifting of restrictions could be turned on if that was needed (after the elections...) . This "political game" will cost several lives...

Vaccinations are up in NL-most of the over 90 y/o and a lot of HCWers did get vaccinated-recently. So that should keep most of them out of the hospital....A short look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Israel-even with lots of vaccine/natural immunity had 4574 new cases yesterday (on a population of just over 9 million. Czechia, Indonesia showing high numbers...

DJ-Of course this pandemic is more then "just" the number of new cases, illness. The economic damage is very serious. Shopowners often without income for months-selling their house to pay for basic costs...Again-"we" are not learning our lessons...we have to limit travel, more social distancing for the long term-(but not forget we are humans). An individual has his responsibilities at an individual level-but most of us are willing to do what is needed (if we know what is wise-good communications). Economics and politics did get mixed-that created this pandemic. 

-[url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/516278-china-russia-covid19-vaccines/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/516278-china-russia-covid19-vaccines/  DJ-Both Russia and China since a few years did increase their share of international weapontrade. They deliver better "quality" for a fraction of the cost western (most US,UK, France) companies. Both countries also want to show themselves to the world as being more advanced. Of course "poor countries" have to pay a price for Russian/China aid-but they may be even paying a higher price (since products are more expensive) for "western aid". 

International cooperation to get out of this pandemic is "limited". The EU may be (forced by some countries) willing to buy Russian and Chinese vaccines (since western producers have supply problems)-I do not think the US will buy Russian/Chinese vaccines on a large scale...

Underlying is how to measure things. The US is still the largest economy in the world based on GDP [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product in US$-but in what you can do with the money China is #1 for the last few years. (If country A has in income of 2$ but a product cost 1,5$-country B has an income of 1,5$ but the same product cost 0,4$ what do you count ?)

From a history point of view the background of any event is a major factor. [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/02/a-new-wave-of-desert-locust-invasion.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/02/a-new-wave-of-desert-locust-invasion.html Last year locusts did spread from Africa to south Asia. Destroying harvests. 

[url]https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/record-heatwave-asia-china-south-korea-mk/[/url] or https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/record-heatwave-asia-china-south-korea-mk/ DJ-Today here in NL some places may see 20C-in february !!!! The fifth day of record warmth !!! (Hayfever is widespread-can cause lung problems). In Bejing-China it can get over 25C. 

-This pandemic will have global economic consequences. We still were not out of a crisis when this pandemic (was) started...fiat currency "debt on the future" is the basics for most western economies. Our world will be changing high speed when the "house on ice-fiat currency "melts"...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTeI65yrhGw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTeI65yrhGw The Marmalade-1969-Reflections Of My Life


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2021 at 10:23pm

DJ, 

This forum today had some interesting-insane-items. On how vaccinations can get misorganized-putting lots of people (even with family, children) in an unventilated waitingroom for hours. Gyms as mass-spread events during summer-I know lots of people there believe good condition will protect them from getting infected-it will not ! (It may limit the severity of infection at best...but in many cases severe illness with a slightly higher BMI (25-27) may give better perspectives since you need some reserves.)

And then someone testing positive early this month after getting both vaccinations in december-turns out the SA variant...bad news !

Good news is Moderna has a vaccine against the SA variant...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908247-moderna-ready-to-test-version-of-covid-19-vaccine-aimed-at-worrisome-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908247-moderna-ready-to-test-version-of-covid-19-vaccine-aimed-at-worrisome-variant but vaccinations worldwide may not go fast enough when the variants are getting a grip-and they seem to be doing that already-with the UK variant for now doing most of the new infections.

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  With 438,000+ new cases highest number of new cases since the february 11 448,000+ number of cases. Some countries jump out, France,  Czechia, but also Germany is reporting increasing cases. Most of these countries already see very strict NPI rules supposed to bring new cases down. Also Israel was supposed to do better-lots of restrictions still, mass vaccinations, mass natural immunity but the new cases stay high. 

-Flutrackers (FT)-just some items; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/908249-viruses-don-t-always-produce-respiratory-symptoms-epidemiologist-professor-michael-baker[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/908249-viruses-don-t-always-produce-respiratory-symptoms-epidemiologist-professor-michael-baker Lots of cases may be missed because people have other symptoms; fatigue, headache, musclepain but no breathing issues. (But they may be spreading the virus ! In NL you still only can get tested "with symptoms" but they may be missing a lot of cases...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908248-a-new-coronavirus-variant-is-spreading-in-new-york-researchers-report-b-1-526[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908248-a-new-coronavirus-variant-is-spreading-in-new-york-researchers-report-b-1-526 ; Wide-scale SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing is critical to monitoring and understanding viral evolution during the ongoing pandemic. Variants first detected in the United Kingdom, South Africa, and Brazil have spread to multiple countries. We have developed a software tool, Variant Database (VDB), for quickly examining the changing landscape of spike mutations. Using this tool, we detected an emerging lineage of viral isolates in the New York region that shares mutations with previously reported variants. The most common sets of spike mutations in this lineage (now designated as B.1.526) are L5F, T95I, D253G, E484K or S477N, D614G, and A701V. This lineage appeared in late November 2020, and isolates from this lineage account for ~25% of coronavirus genomes sequenced and deposited from New York during February 2021.

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Lineage_B.1.429_/_CAL.20C[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Lineage_B.1.429_/_CAL.20C has different mutations so the NY variant is NOT !!!! the California variant !!!! Good news here is US sequencing enough to pick up these variants ! Still not where it should be but maybe already much better then just some months ago !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/908227-20c-l452r-california-covid-19-mutant-strain[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/908227-20c-l452r-california-covid-19-mutant-strain ; The virus is constantly evolving to avoid the immune system, and what is interesting about CAL.20C is that it is developing in a completely different way to the UK, South African and Brazilian variants. A "creative variant" can do even more damage ! As it can start new ways of developing...

FT also has the report of Finland seeing increase of cases-possibly linked to the Finnish variant-DJ-the grim reality is that what shows up in more severe cases may test positive for the Finnish variant (that evades "normal" PCR testing) but may miss coinfections with other variants...Also FT has a few reports of increasing Covid19 in children-very likely to increase with many schools reopening...

DJ-The explosion of variants-as could be expected from possibly over a billion Covid infections so far (with also large numbers of minks being infected in some countries-possibly other mammals)-starts showing up. Mixing of (new) variants will now create even newer variants further away from the "old variant" (and thus evading vaccine/natural immunity !!!). We are just getting started....

The lack of early action one year ago has opened doors that should be kept shut !!! Vaccines may limit the damage a bit...but NPI has to do the main job. And politics/experts keep failing to react in time ! From a history point of view-the-also man made-1918/19 Spanish Flu was limited in time. This pandemic will last longer then the 18 months (most of) the Spanish Flu took. (I believe it did take till 1921/22 to reach the outer parts of the globe-transport was much slower then.)

The duration and economic damage-lack of flexibility to switch to a "pandemic proof" society is a growing problem. "Politics"still claim a "return to the old normal" as possible-including air travel, mass events, etc. By going for such a goal the miss the priority to reorganize society...Lots of study, work, etc will be via internet. You can create some limited contacts for social needs but get realistic (and stop pushing trillions of tax money to airlines with only a very limited future !). The "old shops"/shopping malls may be something of the past-you can make a policy for that-make the best of it-or wait to see those shopowners go bankrupt...

I would love to see this pandemic end this year. There are ways to reorganize things so we "can reopen a little" and that should be the goal...because for now this pandemic is "just getting started" and may last for years...NOT stopped by vaccines but slowed down by NPI !!!

-Dr John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv_TkJbSRhY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cv_TkJbSRhY DJ-I think Dr.J.C. may be a bit optimistic-expecting to much from vaccines. But he is much more "an expert" then I am. Most of the story under the video. I will put a few comments (this post is long enough !)

-DJ-Based on what statistics you use tthe US did get over 500,000 Covid deaths "recently"-worldwide reported and tested Covid deaths is over 2,5 million-the real death toll based on excess deaths (and excluding heatwaves) most likely is over double that number. Many countries that we keep poor do not have statistics on births and deaths...Nigeria-with a population of over 210 million-only counting 10% of their deaths. Most countries see this pandemic as "political sensitive" and will try to keep numbers down (if you do not test the problem is not there). By doing so the make the situation much worse...

-Dr.J.C. another round of vaccinations (boost immunity, deal with variants) is very likely needed. The virus will be around for "some seasons" (DJ=years). UK plan to reopen based on data-DJ-#4 variants may show to be a problem with growing numbers of variants evading (vaccine/natural) immunity. I think vaccines may help to limit damage-slow down the spread of virus/variants-but much more action is needed. (Virusspread via children is ignored. Virusspread via animals is often hardly tested-only when animals get sick. The problem may be much larger when (some) animals spread the virus and do NOT get symptoms themselves...) Dr.J.C. believes the "variant story" is not clear enough yet-I think it is-with increasing number of cases in vaccintaed/natural-immunity people. (But Dr.J.C. wants science reports for making conclusions..) DJ-My choice would be to increase "pandemic proof" investments...I think there are lots of possibilities here (also for companies to make profit-I rather see people working then paid to not work. Just like climate change there are lots of improvements possible!)

-Dr.J.C. feels a need to comment on north Korea,-DJ-For the pandemic-worldwide-situation the NK story importance is "limited". Yes-NK is a "dictatorship" very unfree, authoritarian-but what is new ? China and Russia also "less democratic"-but "cold war attitudes" do not help. There was a story on over 6500 foreign workers dead in Qatar building stadiums for the football world championship they bribed themselves...In most rich Arab oil states foreign workers are treated as garbage-with lots of Covid cases (but when the worker gets sick he will be returned to Pakistan, Bangla Desh, India, Indonesia etc) so no problem for the "royal family run dictatorships" that are "friends of the west"...The political-cold war-agenda-for oil-is creating a mass spread of Covid cases by closing the eyes for how migrant workers-worldwide-are mistreated. 

Confrontation may not help to stop repression. Stopping regime-change operations (from the CIA) would help...The US/Gulf States are involved in recruiting Muslims in Russia, China for regime change/IS operations. That has to stop ! But of course that part of the story you will not hear from Dr.J.C. !

DJ-There are some new stories on Ivermectin, high dosages of vitamin(s) etc. treatment/prevention for (severe) disease may increase via that route. A pandemic mixed with modern internet society can be managed if there is realism on the duration. The idea "we can go back to the old (ab)normal (soon) is stopping idea's for a better pandemic-proof society. We have to find new better ways-make wiser choices ! Airtravel, meat/fur production do not combine with any climate plan. We can do better ! 

-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ka7B3hCg08[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ka7B3hCg08 DJ-Walking is better medication in most cases then the Big Pharma ever can give ! It is cheap, almost possible for all of us !

Music; Dead Kennedy's-Holliday In Cambodia [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr6NOsluHYg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qr6NOsluHYg DJ-By NOT making better choices this preventable pandemic did already kill more people the Red Kmehr did when they terrorized Cambodia...(Of course Cambodia got dragged into a war when the US wanted to stop Vietnames nationalists (calling themselves communists-to get Soviet Union/China help)  using the Ho-Chi-Min route via Laos and Cambodia..another insane pointless war ! The Kmehr Rouge/Red Kmehr getting in power was the outcome of US foreign policy stupidity ! Will the US ever learn anything ? )


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2021 at 10:04pm

DJ, 

In many regions cases-due to variants-are going up. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ is already giving some indications. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908342-cidrap-new-covid-19-variants-found-in-new-york-california[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908342-cidrap-new-covid-19-variants-found-in-new-york-california Also in the US many variants means much more cases-within a few weeks...

In Europe discussion on reopenings while variant cases are increasing. Paris may go for a three week total lockdown in the hope it will end this pandemic. (DJ-Paris is a tourist hot spot-so a local Paris lockdown only has some use if you can keep travel out...) [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908341-cidrap-european-countries-battle-more-covid-19-flare-ups[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908341-cidrap-european-countries-battle-more-covid-19-flare-ups 

From Covid in kids to other diseases (H5N8 for now spread by birds but may infect humans-DJ and with that other mammals-it did break the bird/mammal "wall" in Russia-but may have done something like this (somewere) much earlier...if there are mild/no symptoms we may just have missed it...) my impression is the situation is getting worse-NOT better ! Vaccinations do offer some protection but vaccinating "all of the globe in time" would mean over 100 million vaccinations per day ! And even that may not end this story...NPI, strict lockdown NO travel (at all !!!) may buy us time. 

-[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/02/somalia-and-ethiopia-have-lost-their.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/02/somalia-and-ethiopia-have-lost-their.html ; DJ-Just like in 2020 locusts are a "big problem"in East Africa and will become a big problem in Africa, Asia (and when they reach Europe it will become the main news-world reacting etc...) 

-[url]https://southfront.org/you-shall-not-pass-iraqi-fighters-attack-two-us-supply-convoys-with-ieds/[/url] or https://southfront.org/you-shall-not-pass-iraqi-fighters-attack-two-us-supply-convoys-with-ieds/ DJ-In Vietnam nationalist become communist fighting first the Japanese, then the French, then the US. In Iraq the majority of the people want the US out...so the US "bombs pro Iran militia" on the Iraq/Syria border in Syria. Did Syria give permission for that action ? No the US does not need permission...is above any law. It looks like the US priority is still more in oil then fighting a pandemic killing millions...

-Dr.John Campbell getting excited over vaccines [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-ApgJMVkM0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-ApgJMVkM0 . DJ-Yes it is great, much better then expected we have vaccines ! Yes most vaccines are protecting against (now known) variants ! DJ The reality is vaccinations go much to slow and do not offer enough protection to deal with this pandemic !!!! The big problem is in the numbers-almost 8 billion people on this globe. Every day news on other variants. Other diseases showing up. I would love to believe we are on our way out of this pandemic but every sign is indicating we are moving deeper into the swamp !

[url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israels-three-night-purim-curfew-starts-thursday/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/israels-three-night-purim-curfew-starts-thursday/ DJ Israel "followed the book" ; NPI, high number of natural/vaccine immunizations...but new variants may evade it all..."We" keep underestimating this coronavirus that may hurt is in many ways. 

Support for NPI in many countries is as good as gone...even the willingness to accept vaccinations may decrease. We may soon be in a position much worse then just over a year ago when this pandemic started. We have better tools but "the public" is tired of it all. 

Music-Jigsaw-Sky High [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjtD8A-MWBc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjtD8A-MWBc 



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2021 at 10:16pm

DJ,

A look at statistics-february 26 [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; Allthough the total numbers are a bit lower then the days before it is clear worldwide the "third wave" did start. Most likely the hardest hit larger country is Brazil-with most cases not reported and a (CIA-backed) fascist dictator using this pandemic as a way for genocide. 

Czechia is a smaller-central European- country but in 113,111 cases per million it may be the hardest hit by now. With 1865 deaths per million-and a lot of UK/SA (etc) variants-and lots of restrictions-it may show what most other countries can expect the coming weeks. 

This third wave will most likely be worse-in many ways-then the "second wave". A-Since we have been in this crisis for over 1 year now rhe duration will take its toll. B-Since new variants may evade (natural/vaccine) immunity hopes that "we will vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic" will be dashed. C-This third wave will most likely bring even more bizarre variants-lots of them. The known variants (UK/SA/B/Cal/NY/N etc) are from wave #2-with further increasing number of infections Covid19 will "jump around as if it was on a playground"...D-We did see mink infections-millions of them-from wave 1. Since this is a corona-virus NOT a flu-virus-and lots of (other) animals did show all kinds of corona-virus infections there is an increasing chance of a "large corona-family get-together" with the pandemic spreading to other mammals/animals. E H5N8, Ebola, the Plague etc did see a chance to "grow" in many places with healthcare being overstretched. 

Peak Prosperity/Chris Martenson had the "case-case-cluster-cluster-boom" idea. That fitted for wave 1. It can be followed by another "boom-bang-bang...etc it does not stop at "boom"...DJ-I wish this pandemic would be over-I am absolutely not happy with the prospects...but the virus does not care about my feelings. 

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmXgau7WFmo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmXgau7WFmo for some optimism..

-Yes statistics show increase of cases in many places. The UK showing a slowing down of the decrease of cases.  DJ-Even the UK may be hit hard with other variants.

-Dr.J.C. did take two different vitamin D tests..the one, combined with selling vitamin D, showed a lower level then the NHS test. (DJ-Could there be a commercial interest-this is not a question !). High levels of vitamin D (DJ for longer time) can become toxic (DJ but good for profit-we have to stop healthcare for profit ! It was a bad idea since profit goes before health to often. )

-Dr.J.C. "expects US cases to go up a bit due to variants" DJ-wave 1 in NL did bring 6500 deaths, wave 2 9000 deaths, wave 3 will no doubt bring even higher numbers of tested/reported deaths..

-US may approve the J&J/Janssen Pharma from Leiden NL vaccine. DJ-Vaccines offer some protection-even against variants. They do slow down virusspread. Belgium is going for a test with a Chines vaccine, the EMA/EU is looking at Sputnik-5. There will be "an ocean of vaccines"soon. Both China and India (with their populations over 1300 million) will be using most of those vaccines. India already was the largest vaccine producer. DJ-To be realistic-a third (for single shot like J&J second) vaccination will be needed and may help to prevent some of the variant effects. Some countries/regions may get limited prevention from those vaccines if they also keep NPI/travel restrictions. Mixing all kinds of variants during a pandemic always was a bad idea-still we are doing that to this day...

-DJ-The US/CDC site for variants is nothing but a joke. Dr.J.C. is misreporting on Latin America already facing widespread effects of the Brazil (P1 and P2) variants-they still are limited-but spreading-in Brazil. The UK variant most likely being a bigger problem in most of Latin America. (DJ-In combination with US variants, SA variants, Argentina also once reported their own variant). The mixing of all kinds of variants (by co-infection in a (human or non-human) host) is causing a lots of new variants. With very limited testing, hardly any sequencing we will be missing 99% of the new variants. We are in the middle of a pandemic and practically blind !!!

-Dr.J.C. ICU cases and deaths in US remain high (Dr.J.C. does not know why-DJ-could proberbly be a mix of causes. Obesity/diabetes is a big problem. The number of poor-often non-white-people dying is above average both in the US and in other western countries. Linked to vitamin D shortages, worse condition etc. But also the US may have lots of variants not yet detected/recognized "well enough"-the "MSM news/lies" is "new variants are more infectious but do not bring more severe disease". DJ-That is wrong because higher number of cases with limited healthcare in itself will bring more severe cases/deaths. And if some of those variants bring higher viral loads, new ways of infection that also will bring more severe disease...)

-Dr.J.C. has a point in that the UK strategy by going for a first round of vaccinations-trying to at least offer some protection for as many as possible may be better then the two vaccination-strategy with 3/4 weeks between vaccination 1 and 2. In the UK the gap is 3 to 4 months between vaccinations-and it may help to protect much more people. Most of Europe still go for the 2-vaccination strategy, refusing to learn the UK lesson. 

-Dr.J.C. even if children to 12 y/o run a 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 chance of infection due to millions of children they play a role in this pandemic. DJ-Earlier other estimates are that children do play an important role in transmission-simply often do not have any-or only mild-symptoms. Several variants may hit the younger children harder (a.o. reports from Israel, Italy-also MIS-C link). Face-masks in children may be a problem (DJ-this pandemic may be around for years-so sorry-they better get used to wearing face masks now !) but better ventilation does help. (DJ-Even in the house, parents can protect themselves by better ventilation).

-Because a "social figure/celebrity" was getting a lot of public attention in the UK people with learning problems did get included in the vaccination program. They should have been included-it was a mistake to leave them out. Dr.J.C. is more then correct in "the celebrity culture" in the main-stream-(brainless) media worry. In many countries the media are showing to be quite stupid-giving room to all kinds of idiots, not feeling any sense of responsibility on the role they play in communications. "This pandemic lasted long enough"-messages show a total lack of understanding and kill millions. Dr.J.C.; Vaccinating one group earlier means others will have to wait longer-my get infected and die...

-In some countries people believe the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine is not effective (for some groups)-with "political leaders" spreading non-sense. Dr.J.C. does not want to see "vaccine marketing"-some vaccines are for profit-and lots of profit. DJ-I am political-do not claim to be "neutral" but public healthcare should be in public hands-not for profit. So nationalize the Big Pharma maffia ! From testing. treatments (Remdesivir) to vaccines Big Pharma has a marketing plan for their share holders-they do not give a d..n  for public health-that is not their goal. They are NOT charities !!!! Big Pharma may be one of the reasons we got into this pandemic-for profit ! Wake up !! [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/516525-racist-big-pharma-state-experiments/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/516525-racist-big-pharma-state-experiments/..............

DJ-To bring some more realism to Dr.J.C. [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/intelligence-researchers-warn-against-new-york-covid-strain/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/intelligence-researchers-warn-against-new-york-covid-strain/Military Intelligence (AMAN) researchers are warning against letting the newly discovered “New York” coronavirus variant being allowed to reach Israel. They describe it as rapidly transmissible compared with other variants and linked to cases of patients being re-infected after recovering from the virus. The extensive ties between New York and Israel make this threat substantial and every effort is advised to exclude its entry.

DJ-This is the US priority [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/biden-starting-second-war-front-first-syria-now-ukraine-nato-mortars-being-fired-at-civilians-in-ukraine-troops-and-armor-moving-by-train-toward-russia-border[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/biden-starting-second-war-front-first-syria-now-ukraine-nato-mortars-being-fired-at-civilians-in-ukraine-troops-and-armor-moving-by-train-toward-russia-border WAR !

With the pandemic sinking deeper and deeper into the swamp global cooperation is needed to survive. The false believe of "vaccinating ourselves out of this pandemic" may prove to be a deadly mistake. (Again-yes vaccinations help to limit spread, prevent often for severe disease-most of them are safe for all-but you can NOT vaccinate yourself out of a corona-virus pandemic !!!!!)

I will take a look at flutrackers (etc) later on..

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCKY-Mv230o[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCKY-Mv230o The Flirtations-Nothing But A Heartache 1968 video-clip !



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2021 at 1:50am

DJ, 

-Flutracker story at latest news/new variants.

-[url]https://nos.nl/artikel/2370489-wetenschappers-coronavirus-gaat-niet-meer-weg.html[/url] or https://nos.nl/artikel/2370489-wetenschappers-coronavirus-gaat-niet-meer-weg.html (google translate does a good job !) Good info on how  Dutch experts see this pandemic. The virus will not go away. On if Covid19 will act like the flu there is difference of opinion. Some note the risk of animal reservoirs. Others expect good and bad corona-years. Most expect more vaccinations will be usefull/needed.

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#Notable_outbreaks[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#Notable_outbreaks ; In human history, it is generally zoonoses such as influenza and tuberculosis which constitute most of the widespread outbreaks, resulting from the domestication of animals. There have been a number of particularly significant epidemics that deserve mention above the "mere" destruction of cities:

DJ-then follows a list of disease outbreaks killing 20-50%+ of a population. Somehow the idea is the "2021 world" will not see such a tragedy. Better healthcare, science can stop that. In my opinion so far "we keep underestimating" Covid19 and treath it as a flu-virus. (Because most experts were preparing for a flu-pandemic). With just over 2,5 million global (tested/reported) deaths on a population of 7,8 billion less then 0,01% of the global population so far did die-this may give a false illusion of safety-in combination with vaccines/science "we can deal with it". 

-How countries react on a pandemic is also in history. There is a strong link between wars and pandemics. From the Spanish Flu-World War 1 to the Plague(s) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death 

Wars are started and ended because of "major healthcare issues"-the Spanish Flu must have been a factor in ending World War 1. 

-Genocide by pandemics is another issue. Bio-warfare is very old. Dropping dead bodies in wells to poison an enemy must be thousends of years old. Recent history [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history already has several genocides. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history_(before_World_War_I)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocides_in_history_(before_World_War_I) should include many genocides in wich-at least part of the mass murder was done by (not stopping) disease. 

The Ukraine [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor or the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward killing between 15 and 55 million Chinese between 1958 and 1962 are just a few examples. The "modern western way of genocide" is via sanctions. Not providing aid did/does kill hundreds of thousends in Iraq, Yemen etc. Also the idea of "health for profit" is killing millions of people every year. 

Of course [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Wuhan#Bombing_of_Wuhan[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Wuhan#Bombing_of_Wuhan bombing a city is a much faster way to kill many thousends. The Wuhan bombing december 18- 1944 by the US was a test case for the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Tokyo_(10_March_1945)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Tokyo_(10_March_1945) mass murder on the Tokyo population in march 1945. In the Korean war US bombing may have killed over 10% of the North Korea population. Both Germany and Japan had other ways to kill tens of millions in their way of genocide during world war two. 

DJ-This pandemic does see accusations of bio-warfare/genocide. Some groups-"the poor" are hit much harder then other groups. Also "countries we keep poor" hardly have any testing or vaccines. Witholding aid for commercial reasons-"poor countries can not pay for available cures" in my opinion comes close to a "market genocide". Of course the influence Big Pharma-for profit-had in the handling of this pandemic is another question. Big Pharma's goal is profit not charity ! Most politicians/countries not reacting/realizing this did leave Big Pharma in control of how to deal with this pandemic. 

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/after-us-attack-in-syrian-iran-demonstrates-its-escalation-dominance-.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/after-us-attack-in-syrian-iran-demonstrates-its-escalation-dominance-.html Of course there is the global power struggle with the US trying to stay "the exceptional superpower above international law" and trying to maintain the US petro-$ as its powerbase. China, Russia do see a chance to export their vaccines (and soon treatments etc). With underestimating this corona-virus-pandemic there is still "lots of room"for more war...

-[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/02/the-population-of-monarch-butterflies.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2021/02/the-population-of-monarch-butterflies.html

According to researchers from WWF and the Zoological Society of London, the World has lost two-thirds of all wild animals and insects since the '70s.

  • Earth has crossed its own tipping point and is creaking under the strain: Two-thirds of animals are now extinct since the 1970s! Climate changed forever! World population to hit 8 billion and accelerating
  • Planet has crossed the tipping point
  • Our planet is creaking under the strain
  • In 2020 two thirds of all wild animals who once lived in the world are now dead according to WWF.
  • The world's primates face an "extinction crisis" with more than 60% of species now threatened with extinction
  • Unprecedented death of millions of tons of marine life around the world’s oceans and waterways
  •  NOAA and NASA claimed 2020 and 2016 the hottest years ever recorded on Earth and the last 10 years the hottest consecutive years ever
  • 12 of the 13 warmest years ever recorded coming in the last 18 years.

DJ-This pandemic-most likely soon just one of more (new) pandemics-most likely will become the end of human kind. We fail to stop it. We fail to learn anything from it. We keep repeating mistakes and killing eachother. 

In Dutch there is a saying "the shore has to stop the ship" [url]https://www.woorden.org/spreekwoord.php?woord=dan%20moet%20de%20wal%20het%20schip%20maar%20keren[/url] or https://www.woorden.org/spreekwoord.php?woord=dan%20moet%20de%20wal%20het%20schip%20maar%20keren  But instead of stopping the ship the ship tries to break "the shore". Instead of hitting the brakes in a dead end street before hitting the concrete wall we seem to increase speed. 

Music; Rolling Stones-Fool To Cry [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-2MenrnR2U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B-2MenrnR2U 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 27 2021 at 10:24pm

DJ

For a change 5 scenario's;

YELLOW;  5% In this scenario without a clear reason Covid19 disappears-gone completely..

ORANGE; 10% Summer, vaccines, NPI (and unclear reasons) make this Covid19 go away, very limited number of cases show up in some regions

RED; 40% Covid is endemic-but contained, manageable-limited hospital/ICU cases, hardly any deaths

PURPLE: Also 40% Covid gets endemic-with some variants doing a lot of damage. It takes years to get out of it, many deaths. Spread into other animals.

BLACK: 5% Covid mixes up with other diseases causing a "mega pandemic" killing most humans and other species. Covid out of control means other diseases will spread-healthcare will be unable to deal with the numbers..

So in general 55% of us getting out of this pandemic within a year or two, 45% not that optimistic..(And of course this idea is based on what I did read/learn this far..I am not an expert..Experts disagree with most of them expecting Covid to become endemic-but with vaccines/treatments offering a lot of protection.) Just a reminder-Covid19 is "not the most deadly virus ever" -it is worse then the flu-maybe 3 to 5 times worse *depending on what you count as outcome-long covid is a big problem. MIS-C relation to Covid19 is not fully understood etc.

The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ shows what countries are in variant-problems. Brazil and India report increasing (variant) cases. In Europe Czechia is in a health crisis, but countries like France, Italy, Poland also going for stricter rules to limit variants. In most countries the UK variant is becoming the dominant one, but the SA variant-and very likely some other variants-are also increasing. 

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-jJwUUhFT8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-jJwUUhFT8 ;

-Due to delayed/no reporting the US statistics can give a false impression. Extreme winter weather made testing impossible-since the US numbers are that high the global statistics may give an incorrect picture. Still other regions, and variants, give enough indications on where we are and what to expect.

-The J&J -single shot vaccine...DJ If you need to vaccinate billions of people then why not doing everything to get "single shot vaccines"? J&J, and a Chinese vaccine are single shot. The price is not the issue-the logistics is the issue...with billions of vaccines needed ! Getting the vaccines into the people remains a global problem due to supply issues.

-One reason for a decrease in cases is decrease in testing...Dr.J.C. may be underestimating "Covid fatigue"-people only going for a test if they do realy feel bad-not as a precaution. They want this pandemic to be over and ignore signs of (early) infection-a real risk with the UK variant getting dominant in many places.

-DJ-Vaccinating the "most vulnarable" may protect that group. But; A Some variants seem to hit younger age groups harder, and B, by protecting some groups the virus does go on spreading in other groups-may adjust to a younger age group because there it still can infect and reproduce itself (because that is what an infection is- a virus looking for a host to reproduce itself in its cells...).

-In France they decided Pfizer is for 75y/o+, AZ/O is for 65y/o- so an age group between 65 and 75 may not see vaccinations on a large scale (DJ-Moderna ? But that is in limited numbers-France was working on their own vaccines but so far not very succesfull..)

DJ-Dr.J.C. is expecting vaccines will get us out of this pandemic. I think summer weather-people going outside, vitamin D etc. will also help. But will it be enough ? The human factor in this pandemic was major. "We" were expecting a flu-pandemic, when SARS-2/Covid19 showed up we expected a repeat of SARS-1 from 2003...both turned out to be wrong. This Covid19 is "very flexible" and corona-virusses are widespread...

From RT (of course leaving out Russia's part of bio-crime history); [url]https://www.rt.com/op-ed/516525-racist-big-pharma-state-experiments/[/url] or https://www.rt.com/op-ed/516525-racist-big-pharma-state-experiments/

There’s much talk in the news of a low take-up in Covid vaccinations among people of colour in the US, UK, Africa and beyond. But it’s a scepticism born of horrific and shameful acts by governments and Big Pharma.

Well done, world. Less than a year into a global pandemic we now have quite the menu of vaccines to choose from, with hundreds of millions of doses already administered (albeit with around 75 percent of those jabs in just 10 countries). 

The rapid development of the drugs has been hailed as one of the few successes of an otherwise – let’s be kind – clumsy global response to the coronavirus. Under-fire governments who supported this development, usually through large pharmaceutical companies or ‘Big Pharma’, have gladly welcomed such rare praise.

But there is still a hitch. For vaccines to work, enough people have to take them and, putting aside the inequitable distribution, the biggest hurdle here is scepticism. 

Rational refuseniks

Scepticism is a broad church. Of course, you have the die-hard anti-vaxxers, for whom all inoculations range from pointless or dangerous to DNA-altering vessels for billionaires’ tracking devices. The more rational sceptics worry about the speed at which these particular vaccines were developed and approved. Some people just don’t like needles. 

Most of these groups are so small that their reluctance is insignificant to the larger fight against the virus. But scepticism among many people of colour is most certainly not. 

In the US, surveys have consistently shown black Americans as the racial or ethnic group least keen to take a vaccine. Black African populations, too, are highly suspicious. 

In the UK, where more than a quarter of the population has already had its first dose, there are worries about the emergence of ‘vaccine poverty’, as areas with large BAME populations have a significantly lower take-up of the jab – leading politicians and celebrities from those communities to encourage people to get vaccinated.  

DJ-Very good article with lots of links-Big Pharma is "not a friend" more a crime like for profit organization with a very bad history...In how we deal with this pandemic we have to keep these "people" out ! Problem is they are already in the science community from university to CDC-like organozations. Their goal is "shareholders value" NOT public health !!!!

Politics and media often close their eyes for that aspect. But basicly we have a pyromaniac leading the fire department...This pandemic has become a for-profit bussiness oppertunity-and that is a very major problem no one wants to see !

From Flu-trackers; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908526-us-california-what-is-going-on-there-is-the-20c-l452r-california-mutant-strain-more-lethal-than-regular-covid-19-february-27-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908526-us-california-what-is-going-on-there-is-the-20c-l452r-california-mutant-strain-more-lethal-than-regular-covid-19-february-27-2021 ; Roughly...California represents 21% of the US deaths for yesterday. California has about 12% of the US population.
California appears to be over represented in the number of COVID-19 deaths for a random day selected of February 26, 2021 
DJ-You have to be carefull with statistics but some variants will be a major problem. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908524-italy-stops-mink-farming-for-the-whole-of-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908524-italy-stops-mink-farming-for-the-whole-of-2021 DJ-Millions of minks did so far get Covid19 infection and spread between minks, often also into cats and dogs. The reason why only Denmark did see some mink-infections in humans spreading (I believe in NL some mink workers did get infected from mink but it did not spread further) is they had good testing. Mink farms and Covid19 is asking for problems ! At least minks often have symptoms when they get infected. Other animals may become asymptomatic mass spreaders...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908521-covid-19-india-in-a-delicate-phase-of-its-coronavirus-battle-as-cases-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908521-covid-19-india-in-a-delicate-phase-of-its-coronavirus-battle-as-cases-surge ; Since the beginning of February, Amravati has recorded more than 10,000 cases and over 66 deaths from Covid. More than 1,000 were receiving treatment for the disease this week. The positivity rate is in frightful double digits. Amravati and a few other districts in Maharashtra have been again locked down.

The hotspots in a district of 2.5 million people are mainly congested urban areas, say locals.

"We really don't know what the cause of the surge is. What is worrying is that entire families are getting infected. This is a completely new trend," Dr Shyamsunder Nikam, civil surgeon of the district, says.

A number of neighbouring districts have also seen a sharp uptick in cases and Maharashtra recorded nearly 9,000 cases on Thursday, the largest single-day spike in four months. It reported 80 deaths on the same day... DJ-Holy cow ! Do they test cows for covid in India ? 

DJ-We have to see how Ebola, H5N8, the plague (etc) develops. Public global healthcare should be priority #1 but it is not. 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/israeli-ship-explosion-day-after-us-strikes-in-syria-iranian-navy-missiles-determined-to-have-hit-israeli-ship[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/israeli-ship-explosion-day-after-us-strikes-in-syria-iranian-navy-missiles-determined-to-have-hit-israeli-ship 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-ongoing-large-missile-attack-against-ryadh-saudi-arabia[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-ongoing-large-missile-attack-against-ryadh-saudi-arabia 

Either we end war or war ends us....

Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THe2AzKnHKw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=THe2AzKnHKw The Flirtations-What's Good About Goodbye My Love (what's good about the way I cry, my love...good lyrics !) [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Flirtations_(R%26B_musical_group)[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Flirtations_(R%26B_musical_group) A US group becoming a succes first in Europe and then in the US...



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2021 at 2:04am

DJ-Part two;

-There were protests against Covid-restrictions in Dublin/Ireland and Copenhagen-DenmarK, people accepting restrictions is becoming a problem worldwide. Even going for sheltering-in-place may get harder. Getting groceries to your house may bring more risks.

-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/covid-19-surfing-the-third-wave.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/02/covid-19-surfing-the-third-wave.html

Conclusion:

The third wave will come with a stronger virus gaining dominance. In some countries (esp. eastern Europe) most people already ignore the lockdown measures. It is unlikely that the authorities will be able to press for even stronger ones. We will have to surf this wave without the effects of most of them.

At the end of the Spanish Flu pandemic the population had reached some kind of herd immunity. Enough people were immune against the virus to prevent further large outbreaks. A large part of that herd immunity was achieved during the second wave of that pandemic when many, many people got infected. The third wave was therefore smaller than the second one.

In Europe and the U.S. we are, even after the second wave, far away from herd immunity. Less than 10%-15% of the populations has had the disease and achieved immunity. Immunity can be reached through infection or through vaccination. Over the next weeks we will only have enough vaccination capacity to immunize the most endanger 10 or 20% of the population. The other 70 to 80% are still not immune and still endangered.

All this makes it likely that the third wave of this pandemic, with a stronger virus, less effective interventions, little herd immunity, will become much bigger than the second wave. Instead of 250,000 new cases per day in the U.S. during the top of the second wave we may see 2.5 million new cases per day during the third wave.

There is one factor that may prevent that. It will get warmer and seasonality does play a role in respiratory infections. But mid June to August 2020 saw a strong increase of cases in the U.S. and South America and South Africa were hit strongly even during their summer time. I am therefore skeptical that seasonality will be of much help.

One may think that larger numbers of infections will not matter much as the most vulnerable people will have been vaccinated and are protected, that the hospitals will not become overwhelmed and that the number of deaths will not increase that much.

But that would be wrong.

About a quarter to a third of the U.S. population has a condition (overweight, diabetes) that makes it vulnerable to Covid-19. Not as much as very old people but still to a significant degree. At ten times the infection numbers of the second wave we will certainly see many more people in need of professional medical help than we did see before.

But the old people will have been vaccinated. The ICUs will not be filled with them like they were during the first and second wave. Younger folks, getting infected at a rate ten times higher than through the second wave, will fill the ICUs.

There will no longer be grandpas or grandmas of age dying from Covid-19 but mothers or fathers in the best years of their lives. The sum of years of life lost (YLL) during the third wave will therefore likely exceed the sum of the second wave.

It is difficult to say how long it will take for the third wave to reach its peak. As soon as lockdown measures end or fail we will again see strong exponential growth that may well exceed the growth we saw during previous waves. My hunch for the U.S. is that by the end of March to mid April it will be see the strongest growth so far of new cases.

Then again - that's just a hunch and I may be all wrong. In fact I hope that I am all wrong.

Good comments-although this is NOT a flu-virus, corona virusses may spread to other species. 

-Dr. Vuong [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I02Hb9jXtrs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I02Hb9jXtrs What to expect-another view (in over an hour...)

-1.Dr.V. "2020 will not end before april 1-2021"...Vaccinations are a big problem; who will do the vaccinations ? When will there be enough vaccines ? 

-2.Due to three weeks winterweather numbers (in a.o.) the US dropped because testing dropped..

-3.Cases will go up with weather getting better..

-4.UK variant will become dominant in the US-detection in the US is minimum. UK variant already dominant in most of the US (Florida snow birds will spread the variants) UK with lots of restrictions for months-finally numbers going down

-5.California/LA has its own dominant variant-for months...that variant not only more infectious but also giving more severe illness

-6.Covid fatigue and variants mixed with spring-brake means more cases. Lock down in stead of mass events...(Brazil/SA variants will be limited by UK and Cal/LA variants...)

-7.You will be wearing masks till 2022 (1 in 500 US citizens will die from Covid 19 Over 700,000 in the US alone) 

-8.There will be no "zero Covid cases', it is endemic and here to stay. Due to vaccines US cases may drop to 10,000-if we are lucky 1000 per day...but it will not go away.

-9.Masks are here to stay-if you are infected the social thing to do is wear a mask ! (If they can do it in Asia why not learn from that !)

Dr.V. does a rapid-ten minitus test for antibodies to see if he did have infection in recent past or is infected now. He is also selling those tests-in most countries testing is safe and free. If you test positive it may be a good idea to ask medical aid if there are any healthissues. Also you will test positive if you did get vaccinated-and there is a two/three week time gap-because your body has to have antibodies as a result of the vaccination. 

It is easier to make vaccines for variants then for the first virus-because most "of the script is already there". People get reinfected after six months-Dr.V. is 100% certain reinfections happen on a large scale-so getting vaccinated makes sense-offers better protection against severe illness and death-also in variants. Allergy for flu-vaccines has to do with other preservatives in that vaccine-most Covid vaccines do not have that preservative-but depends also on form of allergy.

Main reason why we have less flu-cases is international airtravel is down 90%. So flu-virusses from the south of the globe did not get to the north of the globe autumn/fall 2020...Also social distancing, masks etc. help !

He is going to shave his head because going to a barbershop he thinks still is risky. Real number of Covid-cases much higher-numbers are lower due to winterweather. So it still is bad !

-WAR-[url]https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/opinion-will-the-new-interim-government-lead-libya-out-of-a-long-standing-crisis/[/url] or https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/opinion-will-the-new-interim-government-lead-libya-out-of-a-long-standing-crisis/ real-politik in Libya, a mix of corruption, Turkey, old elite...but ending the war and getting rid of most "foreign fighters" may be the best to hope for...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2021 at 3:41am

Lots of incorrect assumptions in the moonie article. I think this is closer to reality

 Conclusion:

Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC on Monday he believes coronavirus cases in the U.S. will continue to decline into the spring and summer, allowing Americans to ease up on some pandemic precautions for the time being.

However, in an interview on “Squawk Box,” the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner stopped short of totally agreeing with the recent op-ed in The Wall Street Journal titled, “We’ll Have Heard Immunity by April.” It was written by Dr. Marty Makary, a professor at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, and sparked discussion since being published Thursday.


U.S. Covid cases have fallen 77% in the past six weeks, Makary notes in the article, and he contends that decline is largely because the level of natural immunity in the American population is “almost certainly” higher than antibody studies suggest. When factoring that in with the pace of vaccinations, Makary writes, “I expect Covid will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.”

Gottlieb said he does not “necessarily agree” with some of the numbers Makary used to undergird his argument but added, “I think the sentiment is right.”

Makary writes that about 55% of people in the country have natural immunity from a prior coronavirus infection. While agreeing that Johns Hopkins’ confirmed U.S. case total of 28.1 million is an undercount, Gottlieb told CNBC he believes about 120 million people — or roughly 36% of the American population — has been infected with the coronavirus throughout the pandemic.

After factoring in vaccination data, Gottlieb estimated about 40% of U.S. residents right now have antibodies from prior infection or inoculation — a percentage that will rise as more people are vaccinated. According to the CDC, 43.6 million Americans who have received at least one dose of the two-shot Covid vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer since they received emergency emergency use authorization from the FDA in December.

“When you’re getting to 40% or 50% of the population with some form of protective immunity, you don’t have herd immunity but you have enough immunity in the population that this [virus] just doesn’t transfer as readily,” Gottlieb said.


“I do think that as we get into the warm weather, as we vaccinate more of the population and in view of the fact that at least one-third of Americans have had this, I do think that infection levels are going to come down dramatically over the course of the spring and summer,” Gottlieb said.

White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has previously said that 75% to 85% of the population would need to develop immunity to create an “umbrella” of protection. Officials with the CDC also recently said that upward of 85% of people would need to be covered to achieve so-called herd immunity if a fast-spreading virus variant, such as B117, which was first reported in the U.K., become the dominant strain in the U.S.

The presence of more contagious virus variants mean some parts of the U.S. have higher infection rates this summer “than it otherwise would’ve been,” Gottlieb added. “But I don’t think it changes the overall trajectory.”

If that trajectory does hold and it’s a “low-prevalence environment” in the coming months, Gottlieb said he expects children to be able to safely attend summer camp, for example. “I think people are going to be going out and doing a lot of stuff this summer, a lot of pent-up demand for consumer spending,” he said.

“I think in the fall we’re going to have to take certain precautions, but we’re going to be back doing stuff. Then, as we get into the deep winter as this starts to circulate again ... I think come December, we may start to pull back,” Gottlieb said. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to have shutdowns and be doing what we did this [past] December but it means we might not have holiday parties, board meetings in December might be Zoom rather than in-person meetings.”

Gottlieb stressed that he believes the U.S. recovery from the pandemic will not be a “linear progression,” where coronavirus risk steadily declines month after successive month. Winter months could be more challenging because it’s a respiratory pathogen, he cautioned. “Once it becomes wintertime again in 2021, 2022, we’re going to need to take certain precautions. I think if there’s going to be a normal time over the next 12 months, it’s likely to be this spring and summer.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/22/dr-scott-gottlieb-herd-immunity-by-april-estimate-too-aggressive.html?recirc=taboolainternal


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 28 2021 at 9:34pm

DJ, 

Yesterday some scenario's for the nearby future of this pandemic were presented here. I choose to stay optimistic allthough I do have many worries about this pandemic. 

[url]file:///home/chronos/u-6a204c8e63e7def0ddbd413be1e353ce67875461/MyFiles/Downloads/Na2021_Article_AComprehensiveReviewOfSARS-CoV.pdf[/url]  or file:///home/chronos/u-6a204c8e63e7def0ddbd413be1e353ce67875461/MyFiles/Downloads/Na2021_Article_AComprehensiveReviewOfSARS-CoV.pdf provides an overview of (much more limited) outbreaks of corona virus diseases in animals since 1931. Also how these corona-virusses manage to evade vaccinations, recombination/mutations all over and even jumping from species. With pigs in China a few years ago (a.o.) having a corona-virus that may have been a risk for humans as well. 

The story answers some of my questions;

-Coronavirus disease is a known risk in cattle, poultry, pigs and (colds) humans. So yes there is good reason to study them in labs all over the planet. (We most likely do study them here in NL since we are the 2nd largest agri-culture exporter in the world.). 

-You do not need a lab-accident to start a corona pandemic. It was waiting to happen for many years. In animals we did not manage to get a good control over it...

-In fact one could claim the many mink-corona virus outbreaks show how risky large scale animal farms are. We are playing with fire-and when the fire breaks out claim we did not know what caused it...

-The idea that Big Pharma will do anything else then going for maximum profit is unrealistic. NPI may be the only way to get rid of corona-virusses. It will stay endemic-coronavirusses have been that all human history proberbly...but Covid19 is a different-much riskier disease. It will jump from species to species if we do not stop it. If it gets to spreading large scale in several species we are in a BIG problem !

The only thing then to expect is an endless race between vaccines, NPI etc and variants that often bring severe disease. The idea of corona virus disease getting milder over time does not show in other animals-so why would it work that way in humans ? 

In combination with many other diseases-also waiting to get out of control-we have to make healthcare a (non-profit) priority #1 ! (And it should be about healtcare in humans and other animals-NOT about max profits !!!)

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nipah_virus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nipah_virusThe first cases of Nipah virus infection were identified in 1998, when an outbreak of neurological and respiratory disease on pig farms in peninsular Malaysia caused 265 human cases, with 105 deaths

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hendra_virus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hendra_virusHendra virus, scientific name Hendra henipavirus, is a bat-borne virus that is associated with a highly fatal infection in horses and humans.

There is a jungle out there waiting for someone to open the door...

-Dr.John Campbell with more "vaccine successes"[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNCrzOl2PfA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNCrzOl2PfA  In Dutch there is a saying "Dweilen met de kraan open" =mopping with the tap open. We have to change the way we live treat other animals, (dis)respect the planet we live on...change the way we think ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/908227-20c-l452r-california-covid-19-mutant-strain?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/908227-20c-l452r-california-covid-19-mutant-strain?view=stream (including a recent timeline on developments in the US)

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/501.V2_variant#Statistics The SA variant is spreading-with very limited testing/sequencing/reporting this list has at least 3231 cases in 47 countries...See also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 for (daily updated) overview of (some of the) variants...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908554-5-pandemic-mistakes-we-keep-repeating[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908554-5-pandemic-mistakes-we-keep-repeating DJ-Are they mistakes or choices ? Who is making those choices and why ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908553-plunging-demand-for-covid-19-tests-may-leave-us-exposed[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/908553-plunging-demand-for-covid-19-tests-may-leave-us-exposed DJ-A combination of bad weather, limited testing, Covid-fatigue, bad communications and "unrealistic optimism on vaccines" (If the others get vaccinated I do not need to get tested...) with on top of that variants (like the Finland one) evading PCR testing make control of this pandemic impossible...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908216-czech-republic-faces-hellish-days-needs-tighter-covid-measures-pm-says-february-24-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908216-czech-republic-faces-hellish-days-needs-tighter-covid-measures-pm-says-february-24-2021 DJ-In more and more area's (including a NW part of NL) "black scenario's" show up-hospitals running out of capacity. So who will get a hospitalbed and who will be refused ? Germany closing now also parts of the border with France since in the east of France the SA/B variants are increasing. Germany itself is seeing an increase of the UK variants...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/908537-eid-journal-reemergence-of-human-monkeypox-and-declining-population-immunity-nigeria-2017%E2%80%932020[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/908537-eid-journal-reemergence-of-human-monkeypox-and-declining-population-immunity-nigeria-2017%E2%80%932020 Yet another disease "Out of Africa"....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream (latest activity) good discussion...

DJ-So "now the world is united against Covid19 and fighting for global health"? 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-israel-launching-missiles-toward-damascus-syria[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-israel-launching-missiles-toward-damascus-syria  No-fighting for oil is priority #1...By NOT giving global healthcare top-priority "global leaders" are making a choice for genocide on an unseen level...We should have stopped this pandemic but "we" decided not to do so !

A song for the global elite making a lot of profit out of this pandemic, fossil fuels, wars etc. A "good investment" -"you are a very succesfull bussinessperson" -things have to change !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxwqBJLU8A[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PSxwqBJLU8A  The Seekers-A World Of Our Own 1965 ;

Close the door, light the light
We're stayin' home tonight
Far away from the bustle and the bright city lights
Let them all fade away, just leave us alone
And we'll live in a world of our own
We'll build a world of our own that no one else can share
All our sorrows we'll leave far behind us there
And I know you will find there'll be peace of mind
When we live in a world of our own
Oh, my love, oh my love, I've cried for you so much
Lonely nights without sleeping while I longed for your touch
Now your lips can't evade the heartache I've known
Come with me to a world of our own
We'll build a world of our own that no one else can share
All our sorrows we'll leave far behind us there
And I know you will find there'll be peace of mind
When we live in a world of our own
We'll build a world of our own that no one else can share
All our sorrows we'll leave far behind us there
And I know you will find there'll be peace of mind
When we live in a world of our own
And I know you will find there'll be peace of mind
When we live in a world of our own



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2021 at 9:50pm

DJ,

Trying to make some sense of this pandemic. [url]https://www.debka.com/mivzak/all-school-grades-reopen-on-sunday-along-with-restaurants/[/url] or https://www.debka.com/mivzak/all-school-grades-reopen-on-sunday-along-with-restaurants/ -When I look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Israel had-march 1-4151 new cases. With all the vaccinations, natural immunity and NPI restrictions that number-on a population of 9,2 million-is simply much to high...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-much-of-the-world-is-seeing-coronavirus-cases-fall-but-brazil%E2%80%99s-outbreak-is-worse-than-ever[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/908673-much-of-the-world-is-seeing-coronavirus-cases-fall-but-brazil%E2%80%99s-outbreak-is-worse-than-everWe have no ICU beds for your mother,” Rondônia state Health Secretary Fernando Máximo said. “We have no ICU beds your father, your aunt, your son, your girlfriend. We have no ICU beds for you.”

On the opposite end of the country, more than 1,000 miles away, Santa Catarina state Health Secretary André Motta had a similar warning: “We are reaching capacity!” And in the northeast: “Our health system will reach capacity and Brazil will be in chaos in two weeks,” Bahia state Gov. Rui Costa said.

While much of the world is using restrictions and vaccines to try to tame the coronavirus, Brazil’s outbreak is worse than it has ever been. Deaths have hit a new high, averaging 1,208 per day over the past week. Public hospital occupancy is peaking. Health systems in more than half the country’s 26 states are at or near capacity. And a highly transmissive and potentially more dangerous variant is spreading nationwide.

DJ-The P1 and P2 variants are still increasing in Brazil-reinfecting on a large scale. NPI is very limited, vaccination is <4% ; “If Brazil does not control the virus, it will be the largest open laboratory in the world for the virus to mutate,” said Miguel Nicolelis, an epidemiologist and neuroscientist at Duke University. “It could not only be the epicenter of the pandemic, but the epicenter of the dissemination of more lethal and infectious variants. It’s in the interest of the entire planet.”...

Brazil is not the only country where variants can "do their thing". In fact variants can "do their thing" in most places. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/03/01/little-support-plan-give-covid-vaccinated-people-freedom[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/03/01/little-support-plan-give-covid-vaccinated-people-freedom "Vaccination passports" give the false impression you are 100% protected against all variantsspread. The hard reality is variants spread also in and via vaccinated people. We have to reorganize society-stop the illusion of going "back to the old normal"-we had to do so much earlier. People lose trust in leaders that make false promisses. 

Dr. Fauci is saying two vaccines-plan may also "create less room for variants" and DJ-maybe he has a point there...[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908670-cidrap-even-with-3-vaccines-now-cdc-head-warns-of-possible-4th-covid-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908670-cidrap-even-with-3-vaccines-now-cdc-head-warns-of-possible-4th-covid-surge"The most recent 7-day average of cases, approximately 67,200, represents an increase of a little over 2% compared to the prior 7 days," said Walensky. "Please hear me clearly—at this level of cases with variants spreading, we stand to completely lose the hard-earned ground we have gained. These variants are a very real threat to our people and our progress. "
Walensky said the country cannot settle for 70,000 cases and 2,000 deaths per day due to the virus. She also said if states lift mitigation mandates, like mask-wearing, too quickly, the nation could see a fourth wave of virus activity before enough Americans are vaccinated.

Soon we may be in "an ocean of vaccines" but vaccines need two to three weeks (in older people) to start their job-so to see how far we are in protection from vaccines you have to look two/three weeks back. "Herd immunity claims"are simply false-there is no "herd immunity"!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908668-cidrap-ebola-cases-rise-in-guinea-as-us-announces-traveler-monitoring[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/908668-cidrap-ebola-cases-rise-in-guinea-as-us-announces-traveler-monitoring DJ Other diseases increasing as well. [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ah/908648-drc-unknown-disease-killed-14-people-in-kasongo-lunda-province-of-kwango[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-ah/908648-drc-unknown-disease-killed-14-people-in-kasongo-lunda-province-of-kwango (one suggestion is severe malaria). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/907813-treyfish-s-multiple-zoonotics-during-covid-19-pandemic-thread?view=stream latest activity-news also not "good news"...

Dr.John Campbell with his good news show; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pkkkt-Xb1U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pkkkt-Xb1U  Let me be honest-I find it harder and harder to take Dr.J.C. serious with variants and therefore cases increasing. Often vaccine/natural immunity offering little protection. "Evidence based science" claiming only over 30 re-infections is running behind reality...Still Dr.J.C. is much more an expert then I ever will be...

-He is not ignoring 1 P1/Brazil variant+ went missing in the UK. With this variant possibly being twice as infective as the old variant someone spreading P1 in the UK may start another wave...

-US cases stopped decreasing-Dr.J.C. has a picture of last saterday in a Texas-pub-overcowded, singing, no masks etc...virus/variants feel very welcome !

-J&J/Janssen-Leiden NL singel adeno vaccine starting roll-out in US. What Dr.J.C. does not mention some people may have immunity for the adeno-virus used as a vector. (The adeno-virus has enough Covid19 parts to-normally-give protection. But if the body has immunity to the adeno-virus the "Covid message"may not do its job...)

-There are trials on J&J TWO vaccinations-DJ This could-maybe-offer more protection against (severe illness from) variants. Because we have to look forward-lots of variants on their way. How often do you need what kind of vaccination to get still some level of protection ? Booster-vaccines are the next step-mixed with NPI...

-In Chile 40 of 51 patients in care-facility did get infected three weeks after SinoVac/CoronaVac vaccination. Non of them hed severe illness. (DJ-The more all kind of vaccines show they offer at least some protection the better...in months there may be enough vaccines to protect all-if we want. And yes-it may slow down the pandemic...)

-CoronaVac works with dead/weak Covid-virus(the very old way-and if that does the job well it may be a good idea). China may be producing 1 billion per year of this vaccine. Turkey, Indonesia, Brazil (a.o.) are using it also...

-Belgium hospital cases going up-they (and Germany, Poland, Italy a.o.) claimed AZ/O "not protecting the old"...so a lot of AZ/O vaccine was not used...pandemic worsens (DJ-Vaccine war for profit ? Big Pharma has a very bad reputation-also in "black people" using them for all kind of testing...)

-Dr.J.C. ends with saying the "negative comments" (claiming vaccines kill you etc.) he chooses to not pay much attention to it...D.J. I do not always agree with Dr.J.C. but he is trying to give the best info he can think of-with good background experience as a HCW-er for over 40 years. DJ-I look more with a (very limited) history background and that makes me look from a different corner (also from NL so maybe a bit different starting point). I am happy Dr.J.C. is doing what he is doing !

From Peak Prosperity [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rzDNrqNzU4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rzDNrqNzU4Imagine for a moment that the price of all your investments -- your stocks, your retirement portfolio, your house -- suddenly drop in half this year. Now imagine that on top of that inflation suddenly picks up, making your cost of living skyrocket.

DJ-This pandemic has already-and will further bring-global changes that started before the pandemic. A move in western countries to more authoritarian rule is because most of these countries realise the US$/€ may lose much of their value-are "paper tigers" with Russia/China having oil/gold to back their currencies. But we are still in a worsening crisis-it is impossible to do much of scenario's on how the western economies may collapse. It may be in the interest of China (etc) to "keep us alive"-because western collapse could mean (still) global collapse...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-officially-warns-israel-no-more-attacks-on-syria-or-russia-will-attack-back[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-officially-warns-israel-no-more-attacks-on-syria-or-russia-will-attack-back should be seen with this-shift of power-background. Russia-Iran-China (RIC) are on their way to become the dominant players. RIC soon may see India (and/or Indonesia) joining them (Turkey in fact makes it TRIC or Pakistan PRIC)...The times they are changing !

Music ; New World In The Morning - Roger Wittaker-1974 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9nz_KfxSAM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9nz_KfxSAM ;

Everybody talks about a new world in the morning. A new world in the morning so they say.
I, myself don't talk about a new world in the morning. A new world in the morning, that's today.
And I can feel a new tomorrow comin' on.
And I don't know why I have to make a song. Everybody talks a bout a new world in the morning. New world in the morning takes so long.
I met a man who had a dream he had since he was twenty. I met that man when he was eighty-one. He said too many
people just stand and wait up til the mornin', Don't they know tomorrow never comes.
And he would feel a new tomorrow coming on. And when he'd smile his eyes would twinkle up in thought. Everybody talks about a new world in the morning. New world in the morning never comes.
And I can feel a new tomorrow coming on.
And I don't know why I have to make a song. Everybody talks about a new world in the morning. New world in the morning takes so long.




We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 01 2021 at 10:40pm

Re your comment, DJ, about not having ICU beds available. 

Last week I read that here in Finland they were moving ICU patients out of the capital region.  They did have plenty of spare ICU beds, but the problem was they did not have enough nursing staff to use all the beds that they had.   A year of heightened levels of patients needing care must have taken a huge toll on the hospital staff.

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