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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 09 2021 at 10:30pm

DJ,

-Trying to make some sense of where we are in this pandemic a look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table top ten of new cases. #1-India almost 94,000 new cases reported-how many cases not reported ? #2 Brazil over 87,000 new cases reported-do the numbers go down ? #3 Argentina almost 30,000 new cases and #4 Colombia almost 25,000 new cases-Brazil linked... The US at #5-still 14,201 new cases. Iran & Russia make #6 & #7 with both around 10,500 cases being reported-high numbers...At #8 is South Africa reporting almost 9,000 new cases, #9 is Indonesia with 7,725 cases being reported...the UK now made the top 10 again at #10 with reporting 7,540 cases...

In this list DRC-Congo gets at #73 with reporting 379 new cases while a mix of variants is out of control in Kinshasa-the capital with a population of over 15 million. Haïti is at # 138 reporting 13 new cases-while Covid19 variants are out of control there...DJ-Most of the spread of variants is now under the radar in countries we keep poor. With hardly any testing-not even starting on sequencing-by now several new variants must have shown up...

The [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table puts DRC at #8 for weekly increase by %...+195% with 686 cases last week, this week becoming 2,022-maybe it is even very optimistic to claim 1% of cases get tested...wich would make this week numbers 202,200 new cases...Haïti is in this list at #118-with a decrease of -17%- last week 1,021 new cases, this week would have been 850 new cases detected...The India/Brazil scenario is in many other countries-but with hardly any testing-no sequencing-and hardly any media cover "we" ignore it...UK is at #24 in this list +66% last week did see 25,240 cases, this week had 41,890 cases reported...the UK and US are in talks to restart travel...

DJ-My-non-expert-impression; 1-Most of new cases is under the radar. Variants are spreading and mixing all over the place often in countries with hardly any vaccinations. Vietnam is reporting an increase of 1%-with relative good testing-increase of vaccinations-so they manage to get their variant limited. Mexico is reporting -17%-their variant(s) are under control ? 

2-UK has a high level of vaccinations. The UK variant was supposed to also give a high level of natural immunity...but still the India variant may be a "very serious problem"...US is reporting -15% as a weekly trend-reopening-last week 115,709 new cases being reported-this week down to 98,136...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics is trying now to put numbers in perspective...Using Pangolin numbers UK did see 9,273 cases of the India variant june 1-getting to 20,931 cases by june 10 (I believe the UK manages to sequence 50% of its new cases...). US 1,542 cases june 1-becoming 1,760 cases on june 10-with less sequencing (under 5% of cases ?) and more reopenings...When you look at the Pangolin numbers some countries would see a lower number of the India variant on june 10...these numbers-like all statistics-give an indication...

[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ gives more info on more variants-still based on very limited sequencing. I understand only Denmark manages 100% sequencing of all new cases...UK being second with 50%-rest of the world less then 5% if any sequencing at all...Several variants are increasing-also in countries with high number of vaccinations. 

In many countries the younger-more social active part of the population is not yet vaccinated. Also people without legal status-in the US, UK, EU millions-did not get vaccinated-hardly go for testing...In poor area's, more orthodox religious groups vaccinations are problematic...but "Yeah in general the numbers go down-we beat the beast-party time"!!!! Can't fix stupid ! (I hate that because it is the truth...)

-Flutrackers-latest posts;-they also reported on Kinshasa/DRC and Haïti as one of the few sources...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-2-high-risk-areas-identified-in-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-2-high-risk-areas-identified-in-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream latest activities; Xiang Kai, Wang Jing and Han Wei
UPDATEDJUN 8, 2021, 9:42 PM

(CAIXIN GLOBAL) - Southern China's Guangzhou has imposed travel restrictions and stepped up mass coronavirus testing, as the giant metropolis battles a dangerous variant of Covid-19 in one of the most alarming flare-ups in the country since last summer.
...
The cluster, which has been traced to a woman from the city's Liwan district, marks the first community outbreak in China of a highly transmissible strain first detected in India.
...
"The variant has a shorter incubation period, faster transmission speed, and higher viral load, making the situation in Guangzhou completely different from the past," said Mr Zhang Zhoubin, deputy head of the Guangzhou Centre for Disease Control (CDC), at a news briefing last week.
...
The new variant is a stronger enemy. Contact tracing showed that some of the earliest cases in the Guangzhou outbreak had breakfast in the same restaurant. Some of the patients did not have direct contact with each other and sat apart in the room, an indication of the variant's highly contagious nature.
...
Dr Cai said that, compared with previous cases, the new variant shows a faster speed of transmission and stronger viral load.

According to Mr Zhang, the new variant's R0, which measures the number of people a sick person can infect, ranged between five and six when the outbreak started, compared with previous variants' R0 of two to three.

The variant's R0 dropped to 4.19 on May 30 as disease control steps were implemented, indicating the effectiveness of the measures, Mr Zhang said.

Dr Cai said the contagious power of the variant is alarming, noting that the only contact between Madam Guo and Ms Song was their presence in the same restaurant for breakfast, although they were several metres apart.

As the virus spreads, its viral load does not show a significant decline, indicating that the virus is much stronger than it was last year, Dr Cai said.

Many of the patients in the latest outbreak showed no clear symptoms or did not feel anything even though their lungs were already infected, he added.

That makes it even more difficult to detect the virus among the public, because the previous practice of screening potential patients based on body temperature is no longer useful, Dr Cai said.

DJ-Some indications UK variant 1,5 times as infectious as the "starter-virus", the India variant 2,2 times as infectious...A newer-more infectious variant-if it shows up-will show itself in very high numbers going up top-speed. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/917111-china-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n8-in-wild-birds-reported-in-yulin-city-shaanxi-province-june-9-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/917111-china-outbreak-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n8-in-wild-birds-reported-in-yulin-city-shaanxi-province-june-9-2021 ;On June 9th , the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs received a report from the China Animal Disease Prevention and Control Center, and confirmed by the National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory that a wild bird H5N8 subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic occurred in the Hongjiannao National Nature Reserve in Shenmu City . 4249 wild poultry died in the epidemic site . After the outbreak, the local area immediately activated an emergency response mechanism, carried out emergency response work, treated all sick and dead wild birds in a harmless manner, and disinfected the surrounding environment.

Since the beginning of this year, a total of 6 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks (all wild birds) have been reported across the country . The outbreaks are in a spot state and no regional outbreaks have occurred.

DJ H5N8 did jump to humans earlier this year in Russia and Nigeria-a next pandemic just waiting around the corner ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917106-cidrap-delta-variant-makes-up-6-of-us-covid-19-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917106-cidrap-delta-variant-makes-up-6-of-us-covid-19-cases ; The Delta variant, a highly contagious COVID-19 variant first identified in India and also known as B1617.2, now accounts for about 6% of US infections, Anthony Fauci, MD, the chief medical adviser to the White House, said yesterday.
The variant has become the dominant strain not only in India but also the United Kingdom, where younger people are getting sick more frequently.
Fauci said the transmissibility of the Delta variant should prompt any eligible American who has not done so yet to get vaccinated as quickly as possible, as preliminary data show the Pfizer vaccines is 88% effective against the Delta strain.

DJ-US vaccinations now under 400,000 per day...The US may not reach the 70% immunity via vaccinations. The India-variant-and other variants-may stop if herd immunity is 85%+...with NPI-but that scenario is far away from the present situation. The US-according to Gisaid-has 12,498 cases detected of the P1 variant...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917105-cidrap-global-covid-19-patterns-reflect-dual-world-track[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917105-cidrap-global-covid-19-patterns-reflect-dual-world-track ;Though global COVID-19 cases fell last week for the sixth week in a row, some countries in every part of the world are reporting rises, painting a complicated picture of the current pandemic status, layered with worries about more transmissible variants and slim vaccine supply in many nations.

Tough struggles in many countries

In its weekly snapshot of the pandemic yesterday, the World Health Organization (WHO) said overall cases declined 15% last week, led mainly by steep drops in its Europe region and Southeast Asia region, which includes India. Deaths dropped by 8%.
The five highest-burden countries are India, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and the United States. Some of the countries reporting the steepest rises over the past week include Zambia (191%), Uganda (137%), South Africa (22%), the Philippines (19%), and Colombia (17%).
More than 80 countries have now reported the more transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant,
At a media briefing today, PAHO Director Carissa Etienne, MBBS, said that, in many places in the region, pandemic activity is at its highest point, and though vaccines will eventually help, progress has been uneven. For example, she said the United States has vaccinated about 40% of its population, but some locations in the Americas such as Honduras have received only enough doses to immunize 1% of their populations.
"Today we're seeing the emergence of two worlds: one quickly returning to normal, and another where recovery remains a distant future," she said. "And the differences are stark."
Though cases are finally starting to decline in Costa Rica, Bolivia and Colombia have reported surges over the past 2 weeks, with intensive care unit beds near capacity in many Colombian cities, Etienne said.

Groups push for probe into virus source

The European Union (EU) has signaled that it will amplify a recent United States call for a stronger effort to explore the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the Washington Post reported, based on initial reports from Reuters and Bloomberg. At an upcoming summit, the EU and United States are expected to issue a joint statement supporting further investigation.

DJ-Part of "normal" is claiming "China did it/lab-leak" stories-while most of the world still is in a very serious health crisis. Also remarkable going for "official numbers" ignoring decrtease/lack of testing and also ignoring the rise of variants...by the WHO...From the same link ;

More global headlines

  • UK epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, OBE, said the Delta variant appears to be 60% more transmissible than the Alpha (B117) variant. Ferguson, who is with Imperial College London, made the comments to reporters today, according to Reuters.
  • Singapore's health ministry said the Delta variant is the most common variant detected in the country, according to Reuters. Singapore is among the countries battling recent spikes in COVID-19 activity.
  • The South Pacific nation of Fiji is reporting record-high COVID cases, according to the Washington Post.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917103-cidrap-news-scan-covid-19-group-home-risks-full-pfizer-covid-vaccine-protection-new-h5n6-avian-flu-case[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917103-cidrap-news-scan-covid-19-group-home-risks-full-pfizer-covid-vaccine-protection-new-h5n6-avian-flu-case ;

Real-world study finds 2 doses of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine 89% effective

An Israeli population-based study found 89% vaccine effectiveness (VE) 7 or more days after the second dose, according to a study today in Open Forum Infectious Diseases.
The researchers followed 6,286 people, of whom 30.2% weren't vaccinated, 23.0% received one dose, and 46.8% received two doses (mean ages, 36, 41, and 52 years, respectively). The follow-up period was from Jan 1 to Feb 11, during which the country's new daily infections peaked at more than 8,000 cases per day from Jan 14 to 20 and then subsided to 5,822 by the study's end.

-

H5N6 avian flu infects another person in China

China has reported another human H5N6 avian flu case, which involves a 49-year-old woman from Sichuan province, according to a statement yesterday from Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP). Sichuan province is in the country's southwest.
The patient's symptoms began on May 13, and she was hospitalized on May 16, where she is listed in serious condition. The report did not say how she was exposed to the virus.
China and a few other countries have reported H5N6 outbreaks in poultry since 2014, but China and Laos are the only ones that have reported human cases, which can often be serious or fatal. The latest case would raise the global total to 33, all but 1 in China.
Jun 8 CHP statement

DJ-Vaccines do offer protection-also against variants. But what vaccine offers the best protection for wich variant and what person may need much more data/study. Would a third round of Pfizer vaccines offer a lot extra protection against new variants-or do we need newer vaccines ? Only 12% of the global population has some vaccine protection. Variants tend to become more evasive, not being stopped by immunity more often. 

On the H5N6 cases-so far-it was bird to human-NOT human to human-spread...But H5/H7 (a.o.) bird flu is a very serious risk. The Covid-pandemic may hide a larger birdflu outbreak if testing remains this bad...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate the necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2.

Methods Employees of the Cleveland Clinic Health System working in Ohio on Dec 16, 2020, the day COVID-19 vaccination was started, were included. Any subject who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at least 42 days earlier was considered previously infected. One was considered vaccinated 14 days after receipt of the second dose of a SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection over the next five months, among previously infected subjects who received the vaccine, was compared with those of previously infected subjects who remained unvaccinated, previously uninfected subjects who received the vaccine, and previously uninfected subjects who remained unvaccinated.

Results Among the 52238 included employees, 1359 (53%) of 2579 previously infected subjects remained unvaccinated, compared with 22777 (41%) of 49659 not previously infected. The cumulative incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection remained almost zero among previously infected unvaccinated subjects, previously infected subjects who were vaccinated, and previously uninfected subjects who were vaccinated, compared with a steady increase in cumulative incidence among previously uninfected subjects who remained unvaccinated. Not one of the 1359 previously infected subjects who remained unvaccinated had a SARS-CoV-2 infection over the duration of the study. In a Cox proportional hazards regression model, after adjusting for the phase of the epidemic, vaccination was associated with a significantly lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among those not previously infected (HR 0.031, 95% CI 0.015 to 0.061) but not among those previously infected (HR 0.313, 95% CI 0 to Infinity).

Conclusions Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination, and vaccines can be safely prioritized to those who have not been infected before.

DJ-There is a lot of discussion on this...natural immunity may not offer the same level of protection as vaccine immunity-with also variants increasing...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916650-covid-19-the-epidemic-continues-to-worsen-in-haiti[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/north-america-ab/north-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916650-covid-19-the-epidemic-continues-to-worsen-in-haiti latest; Diquini Adventist Hospital is reaching saturation point. He can no longer receive patients with Covid-19, he informed in a note on Tuesday, June 8.

The country is going pace with the coronavirus. The cases are increasing day by day so some hospitals are already saturated.

Indeed, after the Saint Luc hospital and that of Canapé Vert, it is the turn of that of Diquini.

In this note, he informs that the care unit for patients with respiratory disorders is full.

He invites members of the population to go elsewhere in case they feel the symptoms related to the pandemic.

The latest publication made by the MSPP around the pandemic yesterday, Monday, June 7, reports 141 new contaminations.

DJ-They may have run out of tests...The WHO then explains a drop in cases as a "succes"...while Haïti may sinking deeper into a crisis...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917052-one-case-of-black-fungus-spotted-in-chile[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917052-one-case-of-black-fungus-spotted-in-chile ;The Chilean Society of Infectology (Sochinf) reported Sunday in a statement that one case of mucormycosis, commonly known as black fungus, had been detected.

The issue gained worldwide attention after reports of numerous patients in India with the disease, followed by the appearance of one such case in Uruguay last week in a patient who had suffered a mild case of covid-19...

DJ-Chile is the 5th country after India, Russia, Uruguay and Paraguay reporting fungul infections...most of the "poor countries" may have these kind of problems-it just is not reported...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917088-recovery-trial-aspirin-does-not-improve-survival-for-hospitalized-covid-patients[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917088-recovery-trial-aspirin-does-not-improve-survival-for-hospitalized-covid-patients ;

Although COVID vaccines have proven to be a remarkable success, developing effective therapeutics for viral infections have always been a challenge.


The latest COVID treatment to fall short appears to be Aspirin (ASA), whose anticoagulating properties would seem likely to be beneficial to COVID patients, and which has the added benefit of low cost and nearly universal access.

Unfortunately, this week's announcement from the RECOVERY TRIAL found no such benefit.

DJ-Following the news on Ivermectin for a long time-both Dr. John Campbell and Peak Prosperity/Dr. Chris Martenson claim it is effective...(among many others...). So the big question remains why it is not used more often. 

-Dr. John Campbell on the India variant increasing in UK and US [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38NuwkSmv_A[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38NuwkSmv_A Some of the info from under the video; 

India delta B.1.617.2 variant, in US May, 8th, 3% Now, 6% 40 percent more transmissible than the UK alpha variant, B.1.1.7 One vaccine dose, 33 % protection (50% for alpha variant)

Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca, 88% effective in preventing symptomatic disease caused by delta (Moderna probably similar) 70% of adults by 4th July Now, 63.8% On track for 67% Incentives 

UK R = 1.3 London, 1.8 on low levels

Portugal now amber

Manchester and Lancashire surge testing and vaccinations Government, race between jabs and variants is growing "tighter" 25 to 29s from yesterday Matt Hancock, Indian/Delta variant, 40 per cent more transmissible than Kent/Alpha variant Increases in recent weeks, concentrated among secondary school-aged children Matt Hancock formally asked Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), to produce clinical advice on vaccinating 12- to 17-year-olds

As of June 3 12,383 cases of Delta variant 464 reported for emergency assessment 126 people admitted to hospital 83 were unvaccinated 28 had received one dose 3 both doses of vaccine 

Prevalence, week ending 29 May 2021 England, 0.16% (1 in 640) Wales, 0.10% (1 in 1,050) Northern Ireland, 0.12% (1 in 800) Scotland, 0.15% (1 in 680) B.1.617.2 (WHO “Delta”), most common 

Infections and deaths Deaths, week ending 28th May Most deaths no longer among those aged 75 years and over England and Wales, total deaths, 3.1% below average Covid deaths, 95 (down 12 on the week) Antibody positivity Week ending 22nd May England, 80.3% of adults would have tested positive for antibodies Wales, 82.7% Northern Ireland, 79.9% Scotland, 72.6% Highest among older age groups 

DJ-I noticed earlier Dr. J.C. sometimes falls back to "old numbers" it is june 10-some of his statistics go back to may 22/29-proberbly because there are no more recent numbers...R0 number often reflecting a situation over 2 weeks ago...With the explosion of cases in India in mind-how far away is an explosion of cases in the UK, the US, most of the EU ? Why not compensate a slow down in vaccinations with an increase of NPI...? 

We need to get to some level of "group protection" to reopen...if to many people think "this pandemic is over" (due in part to poor communications) we are not getting out of a crisis. So-why not go for a strategy-60% of population vaccinated=lots of restrictions, 70%=less restrictions, 80%= almost reopening ? We are now-again-reopening to early...

Music-That's The Way I Like It (Aha-Aha) K.C. and the Sunshine Band [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0_H3F84Yjk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0_H3F84Yjk 1975-It's party time for the variants !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 10 2021 at 9:18pm

DJ, (Work In Progress=WIP unless I added music-then this post is supposed to have found an end...)

Humans are unique as a species since they are the only animals denying they are animals. Still with an idea-like the Sun would be making its circles around the globe-humans would be the center of "creation"; humans are G(o)od-it is all about us...We have become the pandemic-with cities as a fungus infection on this globe, humans making their home planet ill...The pandemic; that is us...what we now see is only a reaction...Climate "change" does not have "us" as bystander, we are not the victim, but the actor...we are doing this to ourselves...nobody else to blame...

The way out of this pandemic, climate collapse is "us" taking a few steps back...since we changed from walking to running "forward" taking a few steps back may seem impossible...but we can, and shall...

-The numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; India likes to claim 261 deaths per million (dpm)-so far-with Brazil at 2,253 deaths per million already...if we "correct" the India statistics 10x the official number would put India's Covid deaths at 3,6 million...a more likely number...the global average dpm-number now stands at 486.

I also try to follow statistics on variants at [url]https://www.avianflutalk.com/topic43913_post306630.html#306630[/url] or https://www.avianflutalk.com/topic43913_post306630.html#306630 (more and more an impossible job...)

India now reporting just over 90,000 new cases, Brazil just under that number..India's reported number going down, Brazils number going up...UK reporting 7,393 new cases in what is not supposed to be called yet another-preventable-wave...

Peru leading the dpm-list with 5,624 Puruvians dying from Covid19 per million-so far-0,5624% of all Peruvians.

The trends; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table DRC-Most in Kinshasa-the capital with 15 million Congolese in it-reporting an increase of +133%, 898 cases last week-this week 2,089 cases being reported. Most of the spread not being tested-1 doctor per 100,000+, several variants mixing. UK +63%...China +27%, last week 132 cases detected, this week 167-even with very strict NPI rules, good testing/sequencing having a hard time to get a grip on the India variant. The R0 of that variant-without NPI-would be 6...based on the present numbers-massive testing also finding asymptomatic cases-the R0 still is not under 1. 

Global numbers down-16%...most of it due to A. India reporting less numbers and B. less testing...

[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ India variant; UK now at 24,420 cases detected (around 50% of UK new cases get sequenced, sequencing takes up to two weeks-so at the end of may the UK could already be at 50,000+ India variant cases...Also the R0 is based on "old numbers" I believe most of the UK already at 1,3-London 1,8 (Dr.J.C. in one of his videoś from a few days ago.) US has 2,273 India variant cases-sequencing under 5%-would that translate to around 45,000/50,000 US India-variant cases end of may ? Again-GISAID also has the statistics on several other variants. Looking at statistics the SA and P1/Brazil variant also are increasing/mixing-in many places the UK variant is still dominant-but India-variant is getting all the room to become the new #1-if there is not a more infectious new variant even spreading faster...

Dr.J.C. mentioned the India (Delta)-variant spreading 2 times as fast as the "old" variant, others have that at 2,2 times...but you have to relate that to the population-hosts-in wich it is spreading. Vaccination is slowing the spread-but not stopping it. Bad part of the story is the India-variant will-in the UK-mutate towards vaccine escape...(Dr.J.C. interview with Prof. Paul Hunter june 10-R0 for the India variant could be 8 !!!)

-Flutrackers-latest posts; (several on the India/Delta variant)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-2-high-risk-areas-identified-in-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-2-high-risk-areas-identified-in-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream latest activity; There are 10 new cases a day, does it mean that the epidemic situation is more severe? Lin Peng believes that the 10 new cases in Guangzhou cannot represent an escalation of the epidemic, "it just shows that our regional control is scientific, and our large-scale nucleic acid screening is effective."
Lin Peng said that of the 10 new cases, 9 cases were in the closed area of Baihedong Street in Liwan District. The area was closed for management on May 31, and personnel did not leave their homes. This shows that the chances of people who are currently screened out for infection through the community are very small, and they should have been infected before or between families.

DJ-If China is able to control the outbreak of the India-variant in Guangdong numbers should go down-at present numbers go up...+27% in weekly trends. China has 18 cases reported to GISAID (NL has 84-going up-restrictions going down...Even if China would be "not telling all of the story" the picture I have is that China is taking this India-variant much more serious...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917189-thailand-media-covid-19-delta-variant-has-spread-to-11-provinces-june-11-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917189-thailand-media-covid-19-delta-variant-has-spread-to-11-provinces-june-11-2021 ;Currently, 11 of Thailand’s 77 prefectures have the first infection with the mutant virus found in India, of which 318 cases (91%) are in the capital Bangkok, followed by Udon Thani with 17 cases, Saraburi, Nonthaburi, Kong There are 2 cases each in Jingfu and Chaiyaphum provinces, and 1 case each in Phitsanulok, Roi Yat, Ubon Ratchathani, Buriram and Samut Sakon.
  The Director of the Department of Medicine Supaji pointed out that the mutated virus reported in India that was discovered in Thailand may replace the mutated virus reported in the UK because the former spreads at least 40% faster than the latter. (Headquarters reporter Li Min)

DJ-Just like in China, Thailand, Vietnam managed so far to limit the spread of the pandemic-making most of the population vulnarable while vaccination is limited at best. Bangkok being a hotspot for the India-variant should be a nightmare. This pandemic did do most of its damage in major cities-people living on top of each others. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/saudi-arabia-coronavirus/917184-saudi-arabia-2021-mers-epiwk-23[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/novel-coronavirus-ncov-mers-2012-2014/saudi-arabia-coronavirus/917184-saudi-arabia-2021-mers-epiwk-23 ; MERS in Almwaih city: 63-year-old male in Almwaih city, Taif
Contact with camels: Yes
Case classification: Primary
Healthcare worker: No
Current status: Active
Date: June 8, 2021
Event#: 21-2051

DJ-Can MERS mix with Covid19-Saudi Arabia so far reported +0,7% increase, 462,528 cases on a population of just over 35 million. Most of the wealth/oil is in a "royal family" House of Saud-claiming to own the land-elite of 20,000...with a genocide against Sjia-Muslims in the North East and a never ending war-most fought on land by soldiers from Sudan-KSA pays Sudan for that-in Yemen. If MERS can manage to mix with Covid19 we may have a Saudi-variant..

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917182-cidrap-high-covid-vaccine-uptake-may-protect-the-unvaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917182-cidrap-high-covid-vaccine-uptake-may-protect-the-unvaccinated ;Higher levels of COVID-19 vaccination in a population are tied to lower rates of infection in unvaccinated youth younger than 16 years, who were ineligible for the vaccine at the time of the trial, according to an observational, real-world, Israeli study today in Nature Medicine.
Researchers from Technion-Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa led the study, which involved mining vaccination records and COVID-19 test results gathered during a rapid vaccine rollout in 177 communities.
They found that vaccination rates in each community were linked to a large subsequent decline in COVID-19 infections in the unvaccinated youth. For every 20 percentage points of vaccinated people in a population, on average, COVID-19 test positivity declined about twofold.

-

While noting studies that found reduced SARS-CoV-2 viral loads among vaccinated people, the researchers said that vaccination could also lead to undesirable behaviors such as failure to quarantine after exposure to the virus or to continue keeping a distance from others in the community.
Furthermore, they said, because the number of people infected by another person varies by sociobehavioral and environmental factors, even in communities without vaccine availability, and because global infection rates take into account both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, determining the effect of vaccination on community-level SARS-CoV-2 spread has been difficult.
While the study results didn't address the possibility of natural immunity, the researchers said that they hint at possible population-level control of COVID-19, which is crucial for quelling the pandemic.
"These results provide observational evidence that vaccination not only protects individuals who have been vaccinated but also provides cross-protection to unvaccinated individuals in the community," they wrote. "Although the observed vaccine-associated protection of the unvaccinated population is encouraging, further studies are required to understand whether and how vaccination campaigns might support the prospect of herd immunity and disease eradication."

DJ-Yes vaccinations help-but only when you mix them with NPI ! My view is that a lot of people by now take this virus/pandemic serious enough...do not need a "politician" to tell them what to do...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917179-cidrap-who-reveals-new-global-antibiotic-resistance-data-more-concerns[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917179-cidrap-who-reveals-new-global-antibiotic-resistance-data-more-concernsA new report from the World Health Organization (WHO) shows that an increasing amount of data is being reported on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and use, and some of the data suggest troubling trends, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).
The WHO's fourth Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS) Report includes information on more than 3 million laboratory-confirmed bacterial infections caused by pathogens of concern in 70 countries in 2019. That's more than a sixfold increase in the number of infections reported to GLASS when sites first began reporting AMR surveillance data in 2017.
Although WHO officials caution that the data are limited and more research is required to draw firm conclusions, among the findings are high rates of resistance in common pathogens to first-line antibiotics used to treat urinary tract infections (UTIs) and extremely high resistance to last-resort antibiotics in some healthcare-associated pathogens. The data also show higher rates of resistance in LMICs for the most common causes of bloodstream infections (BSIs).
"The volume of AMR infections is alarming," WHO Assistant Director-General Hanan Balkhy said in a press release. "However, it is encouraging to see that despite the ongoing challenges of COVID-19, more countries are reporting in on AMR….The more information we have, the better placed we are to tackle this increasingly serious health threat."

DJ-Covid-coinfections may be a next step in this pandemic. Fungul infections now (under)reported from India, Russia, Uruguay, Paraguay and latest Chile must be widespread. Other infectious will take their chance when "hosts" have less defenses. Public healthcare should be a global top-priority ! "One health" in wich diseases in animals-and human animals-are not seperated is urgent. Economic inequality is both growing and criminial-in the way of finding solutions...See also;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917174-eurosurv-case-series-of-four-secondary-mucormycosis-infections-in-covid-19-patients-the-netherlands-december-2020-to-may-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917174-eurosurv-case-series-of-four-secondary-mucormycosis-infections-in-covid-19-patients-the-netherlands-december-2020-to-may-2021We describe four secondary fungal infections caused by Mucorales species in COVID-19 patients. Three COVID-19 associated mucormycosis (CAM) occurred in ICU, one outside ICU. All were men aged > 50 years, three died. Clinical presentations included pulmonary, rhino-orbital cerebral and disseminated infection. Infections occurred in patients with and without diabetes mellitus. CAM is an emerging disease and our observations underscore the need to be aware of invasive mucormycosis, including in COVID-19 patients without (poorly controlled) diabetes mellitus and outside ICU.

DJ-Not in Dutch news yet...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917196-case-report-bilateral-palsy-of-the-vocal-cords-after-covid-19-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917196-case-report-bilateral-palsy-of-the-vocal-cords-after-covid-19-infection ;During the COVID-19 pandemic, adverse neurological effects have been described. In addition to unspecific neurological symptoms, cranial nerve deficits have appeared as part of SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this case report, we describe a 74-year-old patient who developed bilateral paralysis of the vocal cords some weeks following his dismissal in stable condition after COVID-19 pneumonia. After ruling out central lesions, peripheral tumors, and other possible causes, therapy was initiated with methylprednisolone, inhalations, and oxygen. The patient showed no improvement, so laterofixation after Lichtenberger was performed. The dyspnea worsened after several weeks, so a laser posterior cordectomy was performed with satisfactory outcome.

DJ..."Palsy" is paralysis. There has been descriptions of thyroid infections-the virus can do a lot of damage in the upper respitory system as well as in the lower ones-lungs. Also other organs can get -long term-damage.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/917195-necessity-of-covid-19-vaccination-in-previously-infected-individuals[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/917195-necessity-of-covid-19-vaccination-in-previously-infected-individuals ;Conclusions Individuals who have had SARS-CoV-2 infection are unlikely to benefit from COVID-19 vaccination, and vaccines can be safely prioritized to those who have not been infected before.

Summary Cumulative incidence of COVID-19 was examined among 52238 employees in an American healthcare system. COVID-19 did not occur in anyone over the five months of the study among 2579 individuals previously infected with COVID-19, including 1359 who did not take the vaccine.

DJ-New variants may change these findings. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/917172-eurosurv-the-sars-cov-2-b-1-351-lineage-voc-%CE%B2-is-outgrowing-the-b-1-1-7-lineage-voc-%CE%B1-in-some-french-regions-in-april-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/917172-eurosurv-the-sars-cov-2-b-1-351-lineage-voc-%CE%B2-is-outgrowing-the-b-1-1-7-lineage-voc-%CE%B1-in-some-french-regions-in-april-2021 ;To assess SARS-CoV-2 variants spread, we analysed 36,590 variant-specific reverse-transcription-PCR tests performed on samples from 12 April–7 May 2021 in France. In this period, contrarily to January–March 2021, variants of concern (VOC) β (B.1.351 lineage) and/or γ (P.1 lineage) had a significant transmission advantage over VOC α (B.1.1.7 lineage) in Île-de-France (15.8%; 95% confidence interval (CI): 15.5–16.2) and Hauts-de-France (17.3%; 95% CI: 15.9–18.7) regions. This is consistent with VOC β’s immune evasion abilities and high proportions of prior-SARS-CoV-2-infected persons in these regions. 

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant ; again the "Delta/India" variant is NOT the only variant increasing, the SA and P1/Brazil variant also are both increasing and evading more immunity. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Beta_variant#Statistics may 29 has 1,880 cases of the SA variant in France...Both the SA and P1 variant will be pushed aside by the India-(Delta) variant-or a newer-worse-variation not yet detected (since sequencing takes time-certainly if you may not know what to look for-some variants are likely also evading tests...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/827819-discussion-2019-ncov-therapeutics?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/827819-discussion-2019-ncov-therapeutics?view=stream one of latest activities; Neel, who served on a team of chemical and biological weapons experts for The Pentagon, has studied the effects of Melatonin for years.

"One of my jobs was looking for countermeasures against chemical, biological and radiological weapons," Neel said. "In the course of my research, I came across Melatonin, which is just a remarkable compound," Neel said.

DJ-May have lots of interesting news-also on Ivermectin. Melatonin would also have anti-viral/anti-inflamatory use. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/estonia/917167-estonia-6-new-outbreaks-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-virus-h5n1-in-wild-birds-oie-june-10-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/h5n1-tracking/estonia/917167-estonia-6-new-outbreaks-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-virus-h5n1-in-wild-birds-oie-june-10-2021 ; A list of 6 detections.

DJ Both H5/H7 bird flu has the potential to become a next pandemic-since most of the spread is via birds this pandemic could come ON TOP OF the present pandemic.  See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/europe-h5n8-tracking/h5n8-tracking-estonia/917165-h5n8-avian-influenza-virus-found-in-tallinn-zoo-bird[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/europe-h5n8-tracking/h5n8-tracking-estonia/917165-h5n8-avian-influenza-virus-found-in-tallinn-zoo-bird ;Detection of the highly contagious H5N8 strain of the avian influenza virus in a bird of Tallinn Zoo earlier this week has prompted the Agricultural and Food Board to impose a quarantine and related restrictions to limit the spread of the infection.

DJ H5N8 did jump to humans earlier this year in Russia and Nigeria.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910938-spain-detects-american-minks-with-coronavirus-march-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910938-spain-detects-american-minks-with-coronavirus-march-2021?view=stream latest; Five animals tested positive for coronavirus at the farm in the province of A Coruña
The American mink farm concerned is located in Carral in the province of A Coruña and the regional Department of the Environment reports that the outbreak has been reported to the Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing and Food. The protocol for the control and eradication of this invasive species, which has been in place since 2004, allowed technical personnel to detect the presence of coronavirus in five animals, all of them asymptomatic, and the samples will now be analysed to establish which strain of SARS-CoV-2 is involved.

There are currently 25 registered mink farms in Galicia with a total of 71,479 reproducing females, and this is the fourth registered Covid-19 outbreak among them over the last 15 months.

DJ A june 10 report. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917163-emerg-infect-dis-delayed-antibody-and-t-cell-response-to-bnt162b2-vaccination-in-the-elderly-germany[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917163-emerg-infect-dis-delayed-antibody-and-t-cell-response-to-bnt162b2-vaccination-in-the-elderly-germany ;We detected delayed and reduced antibody and T-cell responses after BNT162b2 vaccination in 71 elderly persons (median age 81 years) compared with 123 healthcare workers (median age 34 years) in Germany. These data emphasize that nonpharmaceutical interventions for coronavirus disease remain crucial and that additional immunizations for the elderly might become necessary.

DJ-Immunity after vaccination is not only slower in older people (young people 2 weeks-in older people it can take 3 weeks, but also less effective. 

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImzsGesBApM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImzsGesBApM ; Change in symptoms-from under the (20 min.) video;

UK, Delta variant, 91%

R = 1.3 (UK) Delta, R = 6 (in no lockdown conditions) Two doses needed Young and unvaccinated Cases could double in the next week, up to 20,000 per day Increased cases will feed through into more deaths, 40 per day Long CoViD will also increase

Change in presentation Cold like features Symptoms now (since May) Headache Sore throt Runny nose Fever Cough No loss of smell anymore

The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern. 

Long COVID from first wave 1 million with symptoms for more than 4 weeks As of 2 May 2021 376,000 people still symptomatic 63.7%, at least some limitation to their day-to-day activities 18.8% day-to-day activities have been limited a lot 35 to 69 years more likely than over 70s 

Second vaccine doses Lower among all ethnic minority groups compared with White British population 

Overall, 70 years and over in England 96.0% got second dose within eight weeks (by 9 May 2021)

Pakistani 82.4% Bangladeshi 82.7% More deprived areas, lower 2nd dose rates Disabled people, lower 2nd dose rates  

United States Deaths down 90 % since January peak Late May, 2,400 weekly deaths

Unvaccinated population Main mortality group now 50 to 74 Black and Hispanic populations lag behind Asian and white Also, rural, homeless, people who don’t access medical care

MIS-C US Cases, 4,018 Deaths, 36

Moderna Requested an emergency authorization from the Food and Drug Administration For 12- to 17-year-olds Also Moderna has applied to Health Canada and European Medicines Agency Authorization by F.D.A. 3 or to 4 weeks

Pfizer already authorised About 7 million under 18s already

DJ The G7 will-again-promise-to give countries kept poor hundreds of millions of vaccines...Russia and China are already doing that...Here in NL over 350 children (under 12 ? or under 18 ?) have long term Covid. 

Music-A little less conversation a little more action, please-Elvis Presley [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWVMXLSS1cA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWVMXLSS1cA 





We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 10 2021 at 10:08pm

With the lack of good intelligence data, the type of comparison you made between India and Brazil's per-capita rates gives a good feel for what the true total might be.   --- The result is quite depressing,  but still it is not high enough to make much of a difference to reducing carbon output.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 11 2021 at 10:18pm

DJ,

When I look at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ list of highest number of deaths per milion a lot of richer countries show up in the top 20. The US, UK, Italy, Belgium are all in the top 20. If a more realistic number of "deaths per million" would be 2,000 per million it would translate-with a global population of 7,8 billion into 7,8 times 2 million=almost 16 million.

I was reading [url]https://nos.nl/artikel/2384683-rivm-het-gaat-goed-en-steeds-beter[/url] or https://nos.nl/artikel/2384683-rivm-het-gaat-goed-en-steeds-beter (google translate works ok for that). In winter the R0 goes +10%, summer is -10%for virus spread. People more outside, so-basicly-the ratio of "humans per m3" goes down=less infections. (One could also include more vitamin D via the skin=better immunity). Vaccinations effect (for NL-and most other countries with high level of vaccinations) is showing in statistics for hospital admissions. Vaccinated are much better protected against (severe) disease. 

In one of his video's Dr. John Campbell mentioned recent (UK) findings of Pfizer vaccine offering 70% protection against severe disease with the India/Delta variant. Against the early variant protection was 95%. In the Dutch story the Dutch experts claim the India-variant is not yet widespread in NL. 

At [url]https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/virus/varianten[/url] or https://www.rivm.nl/coronavirus-covid-19/virus/varianten the Dutch CDC mentions 11 Delta and 3 Kappa-India variants per june 8. However [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ gives a different number for NL Delta variants 86. Latest PANGOLIN numbers [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics from june 12 put that NL number at 53. 

I use NL as an example for how "rich countries" use science for decisions. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics -the other India variant-has 9 cases in NL based on PANGOLIN numbers-only 3 based on Dutch CDC numbers...

When you translate 53 cases-as a compromise-of the India-Delta variant in NL with 17,5 million people towards UK population numbers (UK population 68,2 million) you could go for almost 4 times that 53 number=212 Delta cases...(If you would follow the Dutch CDC numbers 11x4=44) So NL is reopening with already a relative high number of India variants as "starter" in its borders-just like many other countries do-we know how things are going in the UK...

I do not understand this bit at all...I was looking at one variant-but the SA, P1 variant are also on the rise-yet many countries-like NL-are reopening. Why ? 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ for the "rich countries" in general the general numbers are going down, vaccinations are going up, less pressure on hospitals, R0<1...so we reopen...can't fix stupid !

In "official numbers" we did go over 176 million tested/reported cases, 3,8 million deaths...but numbers in reality may be 10 times as high...and "natural immunity" did show not being that effective in Brazil, India against variants. The trend for vaccine immunity-with now 70% protection from Pfizer against the India variant is downward. Further spread of newer variants in population with more vaccine protection will bring more vaccine evading mutations/variants...we are on the way to a resistent Covid19 variant. 

Dr.J.C. mentioned for the UK different symptoms-more like a severe cold-in a younger population not yet vaccinated after India-variant infection. (In his video with Prof. Hunter the Prof. mentioned the 1880 bovine/cow outbreak of Covid that started a spread in humans with severe cold-now part of 4 corona-cold virusses in humans. Also the 1890 Russian Flu has been related with a corona-virus. Based on "genetic archeology" they traced back the start of a corona-cold virus in humans-DJ-could be the same story-1880 or 1890 there was disagreement on that...)

I could mention in new-reported/tested-cases Brazil #1 again with 86,000+ new cases-2,215 deaths, India at #2 with 84,695 new reported cases-4,000 deaths...Colombia, Argentina at #3 and 4 with between 25,000 and 30,000 new cases-569 and 687 deaths-the US at #5 with 16,000+ new cases still and 421 deaths...the UK now at #8 with 8,125 new cases (almost all Delta/India variant) and 17 deaths-next week the UK is expected to see 20,000 new cases+ per day, deaths 40 per day (did get down to 10 recently...). 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917263-johnson-set-to-delay-lockdown-easing-in-england-by-one-month[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917263-johnson-set-to-delay-lockdown-easing-in-england-by-one-month ;Boris Johnson is set to delay the lifting of remaining coronavirus restrictions in England for a month after his chief medical adviser pressed him to postpone the move following a surge in Covid-19 cases.

The restrictions are meant to be removed on June 21, but Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, has sought a four-week delay. The prime minister is due to make an announcement on Monday. The expected delay to lifting restrictions comes as the NHS races to vaccinate more adults amid a sharp rise in Covid-19 infections and hospitalisations across the UK due to the coronavirus variant named Delta.

... Nine in every 10 new Covid-19 cases are the Delta variant, according to a Public Health England report released on Friday.

PHE data also indicated Delta, first identified in India, is 64 per cent more transmissible than the previously dominant Alpha variant that originated in Kent.

DJ-Since for political reasons the UK does not want national increase of NPI/lockdown there will be more regional NPI measures-AFTER cases show/go up...so-again-reactive NOT pro-active. Lots of EU countries are increasing travel restrictions to limit travel to/from the UK (again)-DJ-but of course the Delta-and other variants are widespread in the EU (and US, worldwide) as well...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917261-as-more-kids-go-down-the-%E2%80%98deep-dark-tunnel%E2%80%99-of-long-covid-doctors-still-can%E2%80%99t-predict-who-is-at-risk[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917261-as-more-kids-go-down-the-%E2%80%98deep-dark-tunnel%E2%80%99-of-long-covid-doctors-still-can%E2%80%99t-predict-who-is-at-risk and

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917259-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-is-driven-by-zonulin-dependent-loss-of-gut-mucosal-barrier[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/917259-multisystem-inflammatory-syndrome-in-children-is-driven-by-zonulin-dependent-loss-of-gut-mucosal-barrier DJ-There was the illusion children would not be effected-in large numbers-by this pandemic. That idea did change with even planned testing of vaccines in 5 month old babies....The idea of "herd immunity" now more via vaccines then "natural infection/immunity" -"to keep the economy going" is still becoming more insane/criminal...Stop The Spread ! But "we" choose to vaccinate babies, go for 3rd/4th "booster vaccines" so "we can keep flying around the planet" ...stupid !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917255-cidrap-trouble-for-some-us-covid-19-vaccines[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917255-cidrap-trouble-for-some-us-covid-19-vaccines ; 1-The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) today said 60 million doses of the one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine cannot be used because of possible contamination, according to the New York Times.
The vaccines are part of the 170 million vaccines produced at the troubled Emergent BioSolutions plant in Baltimore. Ten million Johnson & Johnson vaccines from the plant will still be useable, the FDA said.
While losing 60 million doses does not impact America's vaccination campaign, the decision could have global repercussions as the Biden administration looks to share more doses of COVID-19 vaccines to countries currently in need of supply.

2-In related news, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices will meet next week to discuss a possible link between heart inflammation and mRNA-based coronavirus vaccines, the Washington Post reports.
Yesterday, the CDC said it had identified 216 cases of myocarditis after an initial dose of an mRNA vaccine, and another 573 after a second. Most cases have been mild and self-correcting, but at least 15 people remain hospitalized. Of note, more than half of the 800 cases were reported in people ages 12 to 24, even though that age group accounted for less than 10% of the vaccine recipient population in the United States.

3-A study today from the CDC shows that routine childhood immunizations fell in 10 jurisdictions during the first months of the pandemic and have not caught up to pre-pandemic numbers.
Data were analyzed from 10 states (Idaho, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, New York City, North Dakota, Oregon, Washington, and Wisconsin), with vaccinations measured during two periods: March to May 2020 and June to September 2020.
All vaccinations dropped during the first period, with measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) doses administered to children aged 12 to 23 months and children aged 2 to 8 years declining a median of 22.4% and 63.1%, respectively. Children ages 9 to 12 years and adolescents ages 13 to 17 years saw HPV doses administered decline by a median of 63.6% and 71.3%, respectively, during March to May 2020 compared with the same period in 2018 and 2019, the authors said.
During the second phase, when stay-at-home orders were lifted, vaccinations increased, but "none of the jurisdictions demonstrated a sustained or prolonged increase in the number of weekly doses administered above prepandemic administration levels, which would have been necessary to catch up children and adolescents who missed routine vaccinations."

DJ-The "herd immunity strategy" now based on vaccines is dealing with production problems, safety problems and resulting in less capacity to vaccinate against other diseases. Related: [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917254-cidrap-global-covid-deaths-in-2021-have-topped-all-of-last-year-s[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917254-cidrap-global-covid-deaths-in-2021-have-topped-all-of-last-year-s ;COVID-19 deaths in 2021 worldwide have surpassed the total number of COVID-19 deaths in all of 2020, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Johns Hopkins data yesterday. As of Jun 10, 1,884,146 people have died of COVID-19 in 2021, compared with the 1,880,510 in 2020.
The numbers highlight how unevenly the pandemic has spread, now hitting poorer nations harder, as they scramble to vaccinate their populations.

South America hardest-hit continent

The United States, Brazil, and India have the most COVID-19 deaths, according to Statista, but even as these outbreaks have started to slow or decline, other countries struggle with vaccine access, new variants, and burdened healthcare systems.
South America is currently the hardest-hit continent, with more than 40 new daily cases per 100,000 people in countries like Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Suriname, according to the New York Times global COVID-19 tracker. One of those countries, Colombia, saw its highest COVID-19 death toll Jun 9, with 550 deaths, and 97.6% of its intensive care unit beds for COVID-19 patients were occupied, according to The City Paper Bogota.

DJ South Africa President Ramaphosa [url]https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_Ramaphosa[/url] or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyril_Ramaphosa did call the present vaccination campain "vaccine apartheid"-DJ-The rich elite are responsible for both climate change and this pandemic. The way they (can) behave did not change much-and yet they get 100% protection...This pandemic again underlines inequality/global apartheid, facism/racism...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream ; Israeli oral COVID-19 vaccine en route to clinical trials
...
By MAAYAN JAFFE-HOFFMAN JUNE 11, 2021 06:26
...
The company is calling their vaccine MigVax-101. Unlike the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines that use messenger RNA, this is an oral subunit vaccine, meaning the vaccine presents the coronavirus antigen to the immune system without introducing pathogen particles, whole or otherwise.

In the preclinical trial, the company administered the vaccine in a boost format to the rats following a double injection of the coronavirus spike (S1) protein. The results showed that using MigVax as a booster elicited markedly higher neutralizing antibody titers than rats receiving an oral placebo booster, a release explained. In addition, it elicited more effective neutralizing antibodies than a third S1 booster injection.

“They are looking to use this as a booster for those who took the Chinese vaccine, AstraZeneca or Moderna or Pfizer,” Dr. Morris Laster, who is responsible for medical technology investments for OurCrowd told The Jerusalem Post. OurCrowd led MigVax’s first investment round.

According to Laster, the vaccine has several advantages, including that because it is an oral vaccine it would not require administration by a medical professional. Also, it utilizes more than one kind of protein, which could make it more effective against variants. The vaccine does not require freezing conditions like the mRNA vaccines so it could be easier to store and distribute.

Finally, because it does not inject people with genetic or viral material, Laster believes that more people will be prone to taking it.

DJ-East-Finland University was working on a nasal vaccine-spray (a.o.) -new ways of vaccination-means also other ways of distribution/logistics...If we go for the vaccine strategy our best hopes are in easy to use effective vaccines. (The idea of a micro-needle plaster with vaccine to put on your arm still in my opinion would be a good idea. Could be send by mail. Also be of use in very remote area's where the variants not yet did show up.) 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917246-two-passengers-test-positive-for-covid-on-celebrity-millennium-fully-vaccinated-cruise[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917246-two-passengers-test-positive-for-covid-on-celebrity-millennium-fully-vaccinated-cruise ;Two passengers from the United States who shared a room on board Celebrity Cruises' Celebrity Millennium ship, which was billed as carrying "fully vaccinated crew and guests", have tested positive for COVID-19, the cruise line said in a statement.

DJ I know there are high costs involved in not using cruise ships-but can those ships not be used as hospitalships ? Do we need to repeat mistakes over and over again ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/914732-covid-19-variant-1-617-series-including-1-617-2-delta-1-617-1-kappa[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/914732-covid-19-variant-1-617-series-including-1-617-2-delta-1-617-1-kappa latest activity; Feng Zijian, a researcher at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said at the press conference that the existing research data shows that the mutant strain that caused the Guangzhou epidemic has a relatively strong transmission capacity. It is twice as powerful as the old strain in the past, and is the first in the United Kingdom. The transmission capacity of the discovered strains has increased by more than 40%.

-

Feng Zijian introduced that this epidemic has its own characteristics, especially the number of middle-aged and elderly cases, clusters of cases, gatherings, and gatherings. This is also related to the specific lifestyle of Guangdong cities, such as drinking morning tea in venues. The vaccination rate of cases before the onset of infection is relatively low, which puts forward new and higher requirements for the implementation of epidemic response and prevention and control measures.
"Guangzhou has recently implemented strict prevention and control strategies and measures. The epidemic prevention and control situation has tended to ease, and it is developing in a very positive direction. The epidemic is in a controllable state." Feng Zijian said, in fact, since China has entered normalized prevention and control , There have been local transmission epidemics in many places in China, but these local epidemics have been found through on-site epidemiology, molecular epidemiology, seroepidemiology and digital epidemiology traceability investigations, and they are all related to overseas imported cases and imports. The related goods indicate that China’s current risk is still imported from abroad, and China is still in the normalized prevention and control stage of "preventing foreign import and preventing internal rebound."

DJ-Low vaccination+viral spread=more NPI. I did put the idea yesterday that 60% of population vaccinated means more NPI, 70% would see reduction of restrictions, 80% could give a lot of room depending on variant risks...Health as the leading factor in how to deal with a pandemic-NOT economy ! The present strategy of reopening when the the R0=<1 and closing when the results are the R0 gets >1 is repeating mistakes-destroying the economy...the worst combination of measures making this pandemic lasting much longer ! We need an R0 of 0,1-NOT 0,8 !!! to reopen.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ac/germany-ab/917241-germany-h1n1v-influenza-case-reported-in-teen[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe/pneumonia-respiratory-and-influenza-like-illnesses-ili-ac/germany-ab/917241-germany-h1n1v-influenza-case-reported-in-teen ;The individual infected is a 17-year-old boy from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania who developed an
influenza-like illness onset on 18 April 2021.

The virus was confirmed with genome sequencing conducted at the National Influenza Centre (NIC) at the Robert Koch Institute in a sample collected as part of routine sentinel surveillance. Sequencing indicated the virus belonged to the Eurasian avian-like (EA) lineage of swine influenza A viruses, specifically clade 1C.2.1.

The patient worked on a swine farm a few days prior to illness onset. After developing respiratory symptoms, he was isolated as SARS-CoV-2 infection was suspected. There were no symptoms in other workers at the farm or other members of the case’s family and the case has recovered. Further animal health and virological investigations are ongoing.

DJ Viralspread in non-human hosts (a reservoir) and then jumping back to humans is a realistic scenario for most diseases. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917236-uganda-covid-19-kills-14-in-one-day-most-health-facilities-full-to-capacity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917236-uganda-covid-19-kills-14-in-one-day-most-health-facilities-full-to-capacity ; From June 1 to June 10, a total of 38 Covid-19 deaths were registered and over 8,273 confirmed new cases. However, health experts have urged the public to observe Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) to avert the spread of the pandemic as most health facilities are full to capacity.

Dr Charles Olaro, the director curative services at Ministry of Health, said unlike the first wave where cases were mild and asymptomatic, currently the cases are severe and critical...

DJ-This pandemic is far from over. But most people/media are unable to escape from tunnelvision. We all live in a sort of bubble-and as long as one is aware of that one may need that bubble...Most of the world is sinking even deeper in a healthcare crisis that was already bad before this pandemic started-often on top of a HIV/AIDS pandemic. With spread of many variants in almost all continents new variants-better in evading immunity-are a matter of time. At some places we may get "a break" "enjoy that moment"! Most experts expect a rise in cases this autumn/fall-even with vaccinations (proberbly much milder illness...). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917225-uk-phe-technical-briefing-revised-risk-assessment-household-transmission-study-on-covid-variant-b-1-617-2-delta[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917225-uk-phe-technical-briefing-revised-risk-assessment-household-transmission-study-on-covid-variant-b-1-617-2-delta DJ-I will put this at India-variants in the UK-section. See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/917212-nat-med-impact-of-vaccination-on-new-sars-cov-2-infections-in-the-united-kingdom[/url] and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917210-delta-variant-who-director-increase-predicted-in-number-of-cases-europe-wide[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917210-delta-variant-who-director-increase-predicted-in-number-of-cases-europe-wide 

DJ-What is happening now in the UK we may see in the EU/US within a month...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917209-russia-case-numbers-increase[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917209-russia-case-numbers-increase ;Russia on Friday reported 12,505 new coronavirus cases in the last 24 hours, its highest number of daily infections since late February. Cases had been running at a steady 7,000-9,500 per day for weeks on end, but have seen an uptick this week.

DJ Limited info-UK variant spread still ? 

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJrfPFTk3pU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJrfPFTk3pU Friday Update; UK, Cases, + 8,125, Highest since February 26  Confirmed infections up 58.1% week on week   Deaths, + 17 70 million vaccines administered

Indian/Delta variant, doubling every 4.5 to 11.5 days in English 60% per cent more infectious than Kent/Alpha variant 5% of Indian variant infections are in the fully vaccinated

5 April to 16 May N = 1,054 confirmed B.1.617.2 genomic sequencing Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, 88% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2 variant 2 weeks after the second dose (93% effectiveness against the B.1.1.7) 2 doses of AstraZeneca, 60% effective against symptomatic disease from the B.1.617.2 (66% effectiveness against B.1.1.7) Both vaccines, 33% effective against symptomatic disease from B.1.617.2, 3 weeks after the first dose (50% effectiveness against B.1.1.7) AstraZeneca later than Pfizer-BioNTech

So far, up to 9 May Vaccination programme has prevented 13,000 39,100 hospitalisations in older people in England.

Bolton May, 155,016 Covid tests were carried out in Bolton - one test for every two people Looked for reasons to vaccinate

Nadhim Zahawi We are on track for offering all over 50s who have had the first jab their second jab by June 21 Very high levels of uptake, in the 90%s but we have got to make sure they get their second jab 5 or 6% who didn't have their jab, please come forward

Jim McManus, vice-president of the Association of Directors of Public Health  invest that little bit of time to keep us going forwards, it will stop us going backwards The complete lifting of measures on the 21st of June not only risks an increase in cases and hospitalisation, but risks the introduction of new variants to the UK which will undermine our vaccination programme and derail our path back to normality

DJ-Looking at statistics for the India-variants-on average the US/EU are now where the UK was about four weeks ago...I do not see any reason why the UK scenario will not unfold both in the US and EU-with possibly less vaccine protection. There is still discussion and new studies on how good what vaccine protects what age group against what variant-may even see gender differences...

Improving vaccine strategy-including younger people-but also using vaccines most efficient-may save lives. Reopening to soon kills...

Music; Ben-Michael Jackson-lyrics [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvGEZ4S_SuY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvGEZ4S_SuY "you're not wanted anywhere" (I believe "Ben" was a "rat-pet"...variants also not wanted anywhere...)

DJ-Since we are going from wave three UK (Alfa-why Alfa ?)-variant to wave four-India (Delta/Kappa) variant lots of news-long story...





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 12 2021 at 7:26am

I don't think we're vaccinating children and giving booster shots to fly all over the world, but to get back to work.  

I personally was furloughed at the very beginning of the pandemic.  I have collected unemployment, painted, renovated, spoiled my loved ones with my cooking and baking.  My house and household has never been so well cared for.  It's been a lovely taste of what I hope retirement is in about 12 years. 

But it's time to go back to work.

We cannot continue to print money based on fiat currency forever.

We have made alot of mistakes in how we have handled this pandemic.  Much more decisive action was needed at the beginning.  By almost all countries.  Is the US opening too precipitously? Maybe.  But getting back to work was always the goal.  Them that don't work don't eat.  Time to reopen, carefully, ready to make different plans if necessary.  And get on with it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 12 2021 at 5:12pm

I think that the objective has always been to wreck our economy. It's been done and now puitn and the Chinese have created a perfect  storm for them.  There is going to be slow growth or maybe no growth for the next three to five years.  Until we get our debt burden under control, we will have staginflation.  Prices will go up, wages will not  and we are going to pay a price for it  in the near term.  In the long term, China and Russia will be in terminal decline.  Population control and central planning mistakes have led to ecological disasters.  Currently, China is in a water crisis.   As I see the pandemic and it's aftereffects, I don't have any doubts as to the causes and it's results.   As for myself, I hope to return to work in august. Vicki is still having lung and heart issues.  Jill and Becky are working for us with the insurance company picking up the whole bill and they have told us they will pay the bill as long as we are alive.  I am incredibly lucky to be alive.  I saw so much death and sadness and pain over the past  year and 6 months.  I can only hope that our suffering has helped save someone's life.  Of the 45 of us in the ICU ward, 36 died .   I knew that death was all around . I had six roomnates as we were lined up in the ward.  I had wondered why i am alive and I think it's to tell the truth.  COVID is a horrible way to die.  The families were always dressed in these suits and they couldn't even say good bye in any dignified manner. I shed many tears for the families of those who were dying.  You knew your roomate was going to die if they called in the family.  Vicki and I were very lucky not to be separated.  I knew that if we were separated, we would die.  i loved her so much that I think I willed here alive.   The nursing home was a depressing situation, they would not let us sleep in the same bed. I think it hurt her a lot more than she lot us know.  Thank god for Jill and Becky.  My dad's old insurance company hired them and gave them marching orders to keep us  alive.    Thanks for everything, AFT.   We would not be alive if it were not for AFT and Albert.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 12 2021 at 9:39pm

ME163-It is good you are here to tell your story. In many hospitals/ICU's it must have been "hell on earth"....I wish you recovery for the part that can heal, acceptance for what can not heal....

ViQueen24-Yes we need a working economy. No discussion on that ! What we do NOT need is wave after wave in this pandemic-with wave four-the India-variant-coming in. We should have gone for the Australia/New Zealand-scenario. Lots of restrictions to get the R0 as close to 0 as possible at the start. Then outbreaks can be dealt with much more local-like now in Melbourne, not that long ago in Auckland...

On the international front it is good and welcome Biden and Putin will meet and have talks...(I think...but you are free to disagree !)

DJ,


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Thanks ME163 - it is good to hear your story (however painful it is to consider all the death and suffering).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 12 2021 at 10:26pm

DJ,

-When I want to take a look at numbers [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ or [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics may be helpfull on variants/Delta-India variant-but not up to date...Since several variants are on the increase-with the now still dominant -in many places-UK variant decreasing one may fall back to [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ .

In the list of highest new cases India #1 with still 81,000+ new cases being reported, Brazil (Presidential elections next year) at #2 reporting 75,000 new cases-and has been in high numbers for months now...At #3 Colombia-almost 30,000 new cases. At #4 Argentina 18,000+. #5=Russia +15,000 new cases-half of them in Moscow-closing the city for one week. USA now at #6 reporting over 9,000 new cases-vaccinations-and people trying to be carefull often-does work ! At #7 South Africa-still in a crisis with also over 9,000 new cases. At #8 the Philippines-were the P3 variant started-with 8,000+ cases. At #9-the UK-back in a top ten where you do not want to be...with just under 8,000 new cases. At #10 Chile over 7,500 new cases...

Countries 2,3,4,and 10 are all in South America-the Brazil variant(s) still being a big problem. Global new cases 370,000+ not -by far-the lowest number of the year. Deaths 9,953-in just one day from Covid as far as reported/tested-not good !

The trends global -12% new cases compared to last week-at least in reported cases...Here Africa is showing up in countries with highest growth in %. New Zealand is also reporting +67% but cases going up from 12 to 20 in a week would sound very welcome for most countries. UK +52% for that matter is in different numbers; last week 31,395-this week 47,869 new cases...

South Africa +48%...could the India variant(s) be mixing with the SA and UK variant ? DRC-Congo/Kinshasa most +56%with 1,380 cases last week, this week 2,153 and proberbly a "mega mix" of all kind of variants-cases being underreported due to lack of healthcare. A next variant may be from this region. 

Portugal +23%, Russia +21%, China +12% (still very limited numbers-but dealing with the Delta/India variant...), Cuba +9%, Brazil +8%....and political crisis. Australia +5% (from 75 to 79 cases...again-most countries would love to be in such low numbers !).

Philippines and Vietnam-both with their own variant-reporting 0,9%+. A total of 72 countries reporting increases. 

-Flutrackers latest posts and a Hal Turner "thing"...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/vax-horror-vaccinated-suffering-20x-death-rate-of-un-vax-d-from-covid[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/vax-horror-vaccinated-suffering-20x-death-rate-of-un-vax-d-from-covid ;

When they catch it, COVID is hitting the vaccinated much harder, and killing more of them.

The vaccine appears to have made people MORE LIKELY TO DIE if they actually catch the disease.

It suggests the Virus is attacking vaccinated people much harder and maybe a major sign of something troubling happening behind the scenes: Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE).

 If it is ADE it's gonna get worse with every booster.

DJ-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement :Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), sometimes less precisely called immune enhancement or disease enhancement, is a phenomenon in which binding of a virus to suboptimal antibodies enhances its entry into host cells, followed by its replication

First of all Hal Turner is between denying there is a pandemic and anti-vax-most of the time...And "ADE" is a very complex proces. It would mean the virus is taking over the immune system to spread the virus. From wiki [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement#Coronavirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement#Coronavirus

ADE was a concern during late clinical stages of vaccine development against COVID-19.[25][26]

ADE was observed in animal studies during the development of coronavirus vaccines, but as of 14 December 2020 no incidents had been observed in human trials. "Overall, while ADE is a theoretical possibility with a COVID-19 vaccine, clinical trials in people so far have not shown that participants who received the vaccine have a higher rate of severe illness compared to participants who did not receive the vaccine."

DJ-They also include a link [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation . With in the long list [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation#Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_misinformation#Antibody-dependent_enhancement ...

Why put this here ? Vaccines have to proof themselves now. And 95% protection means 5% still get ill-70% protection means 30% NOT being protected after vaccination-against some newer variants...

Let me be honest-I do often also not know what to think of elements in this pandemic. Can we still stop the spread-get the R0 close to 0 in a short time ? Would that be better when there are more then enough vaccines available ? Do variants mutate towards immune escape-become resistent ? I think they might be-but again-I am not an expert and experts are also only human-no doubt doing their best to understand this pandemic. 

And yes-like in any other major event-the internet is full of people saying all kind of things...I am just one of them-trying to limit non-sense...

Flutrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/social-distancing-what-does-that-mean/917324-cruises-just-restarted-and-passengers-are-already-testing-positive-for-covid-19-again[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/ideas-on-how-to-protect-yourself-from-new-coronavirus-2019-ncov/social-distancing-what-does-that-mean/917324-cruises-just-restarted-and-passengers-are-already-testing-positive-for-covid-19-again DJ-I love to be spoiled-like buffets-eating, drinking, sunshine, pools...but even if I could go for free I will not go on a cruise during a pandemic !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917323-covid-is-there-a-limit-to-how-much-worse-variants-can-get[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917323-covid-is-there-a-limit-to-how-much-worse-variants-can-get ; It is clear we are now dealing with a virus that spreads far more easily - probably more than twice as easily - as the version that emerged in Wuhan at the end of 2019.

The Alpha variant, first identified in Kent, UK, performed a large jump in its ability to transmit. Now Delta, seen first in India, leapt further still.

This is evolution in action.

... There are examples of viruses, she said, from flu pandemics to Ebola outbreaks, making the jump and then accelerating.

So how far could it go?

The cleanest way of comparing the pure biological spreading power of viruses is to look at their R0 (pronounced R-naught). It's the average number of people each infected person passes a virus on to if nobody were immune and nobody took extra precautions to avoid getting infected.

That number was around 2.5 when the pandemic started in Wuhan and could be as high as 8.0 for the Delta variant, according to disease modellers at Imperial.

Chart: How the R0 numbers of Covid-19 variants and other diseases compare

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420

DJ-Coronavirusses have been a long time problem in animals. If there was no other way to end an outbreak we "simply" killed all the animals. There may have been earlier larger outbreaks of corona viral diseases. It is not fully clear if the latest major one was in 1880 Bovine or 1890 "Russian Flu"...but the world was a different place at the end of the 19th century-much less people, transport, cities...

What may be different from earlier major corona virus outbreaks in humans is that we now have variant after variant. Over a hundred years ago maybe there was just one variant-spreading much more slowly-in a world with high number of deaths from infectious diseases. Till 1900 average life expectency was around 40...A lot of children did not get adults...Corona-viral disease did reach herd immunity then-killing millions-but it was seen as "normal" in those days...

So is trying to control it, vaccination, a "bad thing" making-at the end-matters worse ? I simply do not have an answer...Given the high speed of spread going for natural immunity with Covid 19 would have resulted in tens- if not hundreds of millions of people dying, social collapse...There may have not been another option then try to control it...still resulting in a pandemic that may last years-kill tens of millions but over a longer time...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/917321-association-between-sars-cov-2-infection-and-immune-mediated-myopathy-in-patients-who-have-died[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/917321-association-between-sars-cov-2-infection-and-immune-mediated-myopathy-in-patients-who-have-died ;Question Is there a COVID-19–associated myopathy, and is it a viral or postviral phenomenon?

Findings In this case-control autopsy study, 26 of 43 individuals (60%) who had died with a diagnosis of COVID-19 showed signs of muscle inflammation, ranging from mild to severe inflammatory myopathy. Inflammation was more pronounced in patients who were chronically ill and those who had seroconverted to SARS-CoV-2 than those who died after acute or subacute courses of COVID-19 and those who died of other illnesses, and no evidence was found for a direct infection of muscle tissue.

-Importance Myalgia, increased levels of creatine kinase, and persistent muscle weakness have been reported in patients with COVID-19.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myopathy[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myopathy ; In medicinemyopathy is a disease of the muscle[1] in which the muscle fibers do not function properly. This results in muscular weaknessMyopathy means muscle disease (Greek : myo- muscle + patheia -pathy : suffering). This meaning implies that the primary defect is within the muscle, as opposed to the nerves ("neuropathies" or "neurogenic" disorders) or elsewhere (e.g., the brain). Muscle crampsstiffness, and spasm can also be associated with myopathy.

Covid19 links to ACE2 receptors that are all over the body-so inflamation also can be all over the body...Proberbly part of Long Covid...in millions of people. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest; The discussion between Dr. Weinstein and Dr Kory has been censored by Youtube. To view the discussion go to: https://www.bitchute.com/video/qHjNQIynVb5O/

DJ-Big Pharma may be making trillions out of this pandemic...a "profit oppertunity"...and politics is failing to correct that with emergency laws. Also from the link;Findings
Twenty-one RCTs involving 2741 participants met review inclusion. Meta-analysis of 13 trials found ivermectin reduced risk of death compared with no ivermectin (average Risk Ratio 0.32, 95% condence interval (CI) 0.14 to 0.72; n=1892; I2=57%; low to moderate-certainty evidence. Low-certainty evidence found ivermectin prophylaxis reduced covid-19 infection by an average 86% (95% CI 79% to 91%). Secondary outcomes provided very-low or low certainty evidence. Low certainty evidence suggests that that there may be no benet with ivermectin for ‘need for mechanical ventilation’, whereas effect estimates for ‘improvement’ and ‘deterioration’ favoured ivermectin use. Severe adverse events were rare and evidence of no difference was assessed as low to very lowcertainty. Evidence on other secondary outcomes was very low certainty.

Interpretation
Low to moderate-certainty evidence suggests reductions in covid-19 deaths and infections may be possible by using ivermectin. Employing ivermectin early on may reduce the number of people progressing to severe disease. The apparent safety and low cost suggest that ivermectin could have an impact on the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic globally.

DJ-It may not be that clear what role Ivermectin can play-lots of studies may indicate it has use-low costs etc. But maybe some people expect to much from Ivermectin ? (Or Melatonin etc...) Related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/917311-am-j-of-therapeutics-ivermectin-for-prevention-and-treatment-of-covid-19-infection-a-systematic-review-and-meta-analysis[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/917311-am-j-of-therapeutics-ivermectin-for-prevention-and-treatment-of-covid-19-infection-a-systematic-review-and-meta-analysis ;DJ If Ivermectin made such a difference could "Big Pharma" stop it ? "Self evidence" would give clear results...there are reasons why we are NOT using Ivermectin HCQ etc on a large scale...(and again I am not an expert-just trying to make some sense...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917226-wildlife-officials-investigating-mysterious-bird-illness-in-maryland-virginia-dc[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917226-wildlife-officials-investigating-mysterious-bird-illness-in-maryland-virginia-dc ;

This bird was found in the Washington, D.C. metro region with swollen eyes and crusty discharge, a sign observed on most birds affected by a May/June 2021 mortality event in the area. (Credit: Leslie Frattaroli, NPS)


The District of Columbia Department of Energy and Environment, Maryland Department of Natural Resources, West Virginia Division of Natural Resources, Virginia Department of Wildlife Resources and National Park Service are continuing to work with diagnostic laboratories to investigate the cause of mortality. Those laboratories include the USGS National Wildlife Health Center, the University of Georgia Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study and the University of Pennsylvania Wildlife Futures Program.


Birds congregating at feeders and baths can transmit disease to one another. Therefore, the state and District agencies recommend that the public in the outbreak area:

  • Cease feeding birds until this wildlife mortality event has concluded;
  • Clean feeders and bird baths with a 10% bleach solution;
  • Avoid handling birds, but wear disposable gloves if handling is necessary; and
  • Keep pets away from sick or dead birds as a standard precaution.

If you encounter sick or dead birds, please contact your state or District wildlife conservation agency. If you must remove dead birds, place them in a sealable plastic bag to dispose with household trash. Additional information will be shared as diagnostic results are received.

DJ-They are most likely now testing for all kind of diseases...if it is a new disease outcome may take some time. Maybe related [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/916581-china-reports-first-human-case-of-h10n3-bird-flu-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/916581-china-reports-first-human-case-of-h10n3-bird-flu-2021?view=stream latest;WHO risk assessment

This is the first human infection with avian influenza A(H10N3) to be detected. Previously, Australia and Egypt detected human infections with influenza A(H10N7), and China reported three human infections with avian influenza A(H10N8) in late 2013 and early 2014. Targeted surveillance projects have detected avian influenza A(H10N3) viruses in birds, however the extent of circulation and epidemiology of this virus in birds is unclear. Further genetic and antigenic characterization are ongoing to determine if this virus is different from previously detected avian influenza A(H10Nx) viruses.
Most previously reported human infections with avian influenza viruses were due to exposure to infected poultry or contaminated environments. Since avian influenza viruses, including A(H10Nx) viruses, continue to be detected in poultry populations, further sporadic human cases could be detected in the future. Currently available epidemiologic information suggests that avian influenza A(H10Nx) viruses have not acquired the ability of sustained human-to-human transmission, thus the likelihood of spread among humans is low. Should infected individuals from affected areas travel internationally, their infection may be detected in another country during travel or after arrival. If this were to occur, further community level spread is considered unlikely. The risk assessment will be reviewed as necessary, should further epidemiological or virological information become available.

DJ Some claim "China cover up" in this story...I think H10N3 is very rare...if there was a major outbreak in H5/H7 "bird flu" some countries may hide it...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/917301-plos-one-stay-at-home-orders-associate-with-subsequent-decreases-in-covid-19-cases-and-fatalities-in-the-united-states[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/917301-plos-one-stay-at-home-orders-associate-with-subsequent-decreases-in-covid-19-cases-and-fatalities-in-the-united-states ;Compared to counties that did not implement stay-at-home orders, the results show that the orders are associated with a 30.2 percent (11.0 to 45.2) average reduction in weekly incident cases after one week, a 40.0 percent (23.4 to 53.0) reduction after two weeks, and a 48.6 percent (31.1 to 61.7) reduction after three weeks. Stay-at-home orders are also associated with a 59.8 percent (18.3 to 80.2) average reduction in weekly fatalities after three weeks. These results suggest that stay-at-home orders might have reduced confirmed cases by 390,000 (170,000 to 680,000) and fatalities by 41,000 (27,000 to 59,000) within the first three weeks in localities that implemented stay-at-home orders.

DJ NPI has good results-at the start...but you need good communication. And it may not be effective for years...(allthough people often can make up their mind !)

-Dr. John Campbell-working now also again in the weekend-since the UK is moving into yet another wave [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUcY1qdywTc [/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUcY1qdywTc Saturday update;

CDC, Friday 18th June, Review potential link between heart inflammation and mRNA vaccines COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in adolescents and young adults: benefit-risk discussion Discussion CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices CDC, identified 216 cases of heart inflammation after 1st dose Another 573 cases after the second shot 172 million people, at least one shot (789) One in 217, 997

Myocarditis in over 12s Presence of one, new or worsening Chest pain pressure discomfort Dyspnea SOB pain with breathing Palpitations ECG changes Troponins Abnormal cardiac function Pericarditis Acute chest pain Pericardial rub

CDC safety expert Tom Shimabukuro We’re still learning about the rates of myocarditis and pericarditis As we gather more information we’ll begin to get a better idea of the post-vaccination rates and hopefully be able to get more detailed information by age group 

Mr Biden Confirmed 500 million doses of Pfizer 92 low and middle-income countries and the African Union Manufactured from August 

The United States is providing these half billion doses with no strings attached. Our vaccine donations don't include pressure for favours, or potential concessions. We're doing this to save lives.

G 7s another 500 million UK, 100 million Five million doses by the end of September 25 million more by the end of the year

-Chile Population 19 million Santiago going into full lockdown from tomorrow Fully vaccinated, 58% At least one dose, 75% Cases, + 7,700 Hospitals crowded ICU at 98%

Jose Luis Espinoza, Chile’s National Federation of Nursing Associations Members were on the verge of collapse Chinese-made CoronaVac vaccine 20 million vaccine doses administered 15.8 million, CoronaVac vaccine 3.6 million Pfizer-BioNTech A few Oxford-AstraZeneca

Health Ministry, Wednesday and Thursday, 27% of cases were in fully vaccinated 74% under the age of 49 April, University of Chile CoronaVac, 56% effective two weeks after second dose Pandemic fatigue, travel, variants


The World Health Organization (1st June) approved CoronaVac at 51% effective at preventing COVID-19 (in late-stage trials)  HCWs in Brazil 100% effective at preventing severe disease and death 600 million doses have been delivered (Sinopharm, efficacy of 79% against symptomatic disease)

DJ-Vaccines are far from perfect-but most likely much better then "natural herd immunity". There is a global vaccine war. Russia and China exporting already billions of vaccines-now the G7 is reacting-so far most in words. It could be Chinese vaccines may have a problem with the P1 variant in Latin America. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHBua3aXQ7c[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHBua3aXQ7c ZOE;

Is it a Cold? Or is it COVID? Mild symptoms are allowing the Delta Variant to fly under the radar and run rampant among younger, partially vaccinated people according to the latest data from the ZOE COVID Study. Discussing the figures, Professor Tim Spector predicts the vaccine will protect many vulnerable people, but as the Delta variant spreads much faster than originally thought, things will get worse before they get better. Tim calls on all app contributors to ask their friends and family under 40 years old to join the app and log how they feel. And if you feel unwell, stay at home and get tested.

DJ-The Delta/India.2 variant (the .1 variant from India=Kappa not that widespread yet) is giving other-much more cold symptoms in unvaccinated-younger age groups. But from that age group it could spread to vulnarable vaccinated. Even two vaccines may not offer enough protection in some cases...

-Music ! [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgBbZBcj5wQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgBbZBcj5wQ Stevie Wonder-You Are The Sunshine O f My Life ! One of his best songs !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 13 2021 at 5:55am

I have a friend, a good friend, and not a stupid one by any standards.  Yet he believes so much internet rubbish about this virus, I would not know where to start unpicking or reporting it.

Our mainstream media have tried to inform people, Those of us who understand viruses, or the mathematics of itheir spread, or both try repeatedly to explain the ongoing dangers and damage.  Our medical professionals try their best and the closure of health centres (except for vaccines for covid itself), doctor's surgeries and hospital outpatient departments dramatically demonstrate them.  Yet despite all this and the re-allocation of hospital rescources and our "clap for carers" propaganda (Oh, yes it was!), the myths and misinformation persist.  AND PEOPLE BELIEVE IN THEM!!!


I don't know how many will listen to your story Me, but for all its horror, I'm glad it is there.  Thank you.  As long as such stories are told, there is still a chance that enough people like my friend will see the truth and join the fight against the tide of death and misery.

It may be a small contribution, but it is a very real one.  Few could do any better.

Believers don't need proof and sceptics won't accept proof.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 13 2021 at 4:26pm

Unfortunately the human race is getting dumber and dumber....

The outright dismissal of climate change and the science behind it is proof enough....

Let alone the total ignorance of viruses and medical history.....

I should be astounded at the  sheer backwardness of the general population, but I'm not.....

Too quick to believe  in snake oil salesmen and people who don't know anything but have a big platform aka sports people, who's only ability comes from their unique set of genes evolution gave them !!!!!....

people more likely to believe them than fact based peer reviewed science....

Reap what you sow earthman.....

Take care all 😷😉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 13 2021 at 9:46pm

DJ,

-Let me start with politics; [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/13/johnsons-g7-after-all-the-hype-what-was-actually-achieved[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/13/johnsons-g7-after-all-the-hype-what-was-actually-achieved ;

The former UK prime minister Gordon Brown said the G7’s 2021 summit would be remembered “only for a colossal failure to honour Boris Johnston’s promise to vaccinate the world, an unforgivable moral failure when Covid is destroying lives at the rate of one-third of a million every month”.

He echoed the World Health Organization’s view that the G7 had needed to commit to distribute 11bn vaccines, and not just 1bn. He said he was also disappointed the group had not supported compulsory patent transfers to boost production in Africa.

-

Oxfam’s head of inequality policy, Max Lawson, said: “Never in the history of the G7 has there been a bigger gap between their actions and the needs of the world. We don’t need to wait for history to judge this summit a colossal failure, it is plain for all to see.”

DJ-[url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/why-is-there-a-biden-putin-summit-and-what-is-it-supposed-to-achieve.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/why-is-there-a-biden-putin-summit-and-what-is-it-supposed-to-achieve.html Another goal of the G7 meeting was "to unite the free world against China"...Very likely one of Bidens goal wednesday in Geneva when he is meeting Putin. So political priorities in the worst pandemic since the Spanish Flu-with a potential to get much worse !!! are;

-Keep US #1-the EU should decrease trade while China is getting tradingpartner #1...

-The promise of 1 billion vaccines

-NOT stopping coal while climate change is going exponential...(and we could be heading to a june-heatwave, still unusual for (this part of) NL this week...)

Again-we do not have to agree on politics-or the role politics has to play on this forum. But we may agree that this G7-top "did not restore trust" in the political elite...

-Some numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ the lowest number of reported daily cases was on february  22-with 287,000+ cases. Sunday-june 13-reported-new cases of 300,000+, still 6,784 deaths is above that. But yes daily cases-in general-are going down. A top 10 for most new cases still has India at #1-reporting "just" over 68,000 new cases. Brazil, Colombia as #2&3. Russia-with 14,723 new cases at #4-the mayor of Moscow started a lottery-you can win a car if you get vaccinated. Only 10% of Moscovites did so far get vaccinated...#5=Argentina, 6=Indonesia, 7=Iran, 8=South Africa, 9=UK, 10=Chile...US is at #13 in this list...5,285 new cases. 

Four Latin American countries in this top 10-the other 6 spread over Africa, Asia, Europe...

Trends; Global -11%-slowly the decrease of cases in India will end to influence the global numbers. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; 19 countries reporting 100% or more increase-often with low numbers (0 cases last week-1 case this week =100% increase) and poor testing...but this is statistics, trends, indications...UK reporting +49%, South Africa +50%, Russia +31%, DRC (Congo) +23%, Portugal +20%, Brazil +8%, China +2% are warning signs !!!! In total 75 countries reporting an increase. This pandemic is far from over !

Another item here in NL news-Denmark reopening more but testing 10X more then NL...Here in NL on saturday 330,000 people did get vaccinated. Yesterday we went over 12 million vaccines-on a population of 17,5 million vaccinations may be "on the move"...

-Flutrackers-latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917328-circulating-sars-cov-2-variants-b-1-1-7-501y-v2-and-p-1-have-gained-ability-to-utilize-rat-and-mouse-ace2-and-altered-in-vitro-sensitivity-to-neutralizing-antibodies-and-ace2-ig[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917328-circulating-sars-cov-2-variants-b-1-1-7-501y-v2-and-p-1-have-gained-ability-to-utilize-rat-and-mouse-ace2-and-altered-in-vitro-sensitivity-to-neutralizing-antibodies-and-ace2-igSpontaneous and selection-pressure-driven evolution of SARS-CoV-2 has started to pose more challenges to controlling the pandemic. Here, we first investigated cross-species receptor usage of multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants that emerged during the pandemic. We found that, in contrast to an early isolate WHU01, the circulating variants B.1.1.7/501Y.V1, B.1.351/501Y.V2, and P.1/501Y.V3 were able to use rat and mouse Ace2 orthologs as entry receptors, suggesting that rats and mice might be able to harbor and spread these variants.

DJ-Yes we did see millions of minks-in cages/farms-being infected-spreading to humans (reports from Denmark and NL). Those minks got killed...Wild mice, rats catching the UK, SA, P1-Brazil (and no doubt the India-)variants should be alarming. These tests show mice, rats are able to get infected, spread the virus...this may make the pandemic much worse !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream latest activities; starting from June 13, 2021, Zhujiang Xiyi Road, Zhujiang Street, Nansha District, Nansha District (No. 142, 144, 146, 148, 150) was adjusted from a low-risk area to a medium-risk area. The risk level of other regions remains unchanged.

-

Since the first case was discovered on May 21, Guangzhou has immediately initiated all measures to comprehensively respond to the epidemic, with tracing, isolation, sub-regional control, national nucleic acid testing, and treatment being advanced step by step.
However, despite the “war epidemic” of the entire population in Guangzhou, under the influence of various objective factors, the number of confirmed cases is increasing day by day. As of the latest notification on the 13th, from May 21 to June 12 at 24:00, a total of 142 domestic infections were reported in the city in this round of the epidemic; among them, 135 were confirmed cases and 7 were asymptomatic infections.
So, are there loopholes in Guangzhou's epidemic prevention and control? 

-

What's the explanation for the "cold" path of nearly 60% of confirmed cases?
At a press conference on epidemic prevention and control held in Guangzhou on June 12, Yang Zhicong, director of the Guangzhou Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, revealed that the recent flow of investigations found that more than 60% of the confirmed cases had fever, dry cough, fatigue, sore throat, and hypoosmia. When I waited for the symptoms, I thought I had just caught a cold and did not seek medical treatment in time, which delayed the best treatment time and timely treatment.
The "nearly 60% of confirmed cases" mentioned by Yang Zhicong have not been fully announced. It is still unknown whether these confirmed cases were discovered after the onset of the disease or during the control period.
Because the Delta has a relatively short incubation period of 2 to 4 days, that is, the time from infection to onset is 2 to 4 days. In the case of high viral load, the close contact and close contact have a chance to expose the virus. , And get infected.

DJ-Communications "is not the strongest point" in/for China...Symptoms much more cold-like is also seen in the UK. In other sources-drones are used to control city streets...China can get very draconian in dealing with this pandemic. They do not want further spread of the India-variant in China. Earlier there were reports of closing borders with India, Nepal...to keep the variant out in that region. 

What we should get out of the news from China is that containing the India-variant is problematic. India, UK did see crisis-other countries are moving towards wave 4-India variant based...we could/should try to stop it ! But we-again-do not !

From the same article;

Why can a virus span 5 incubation periods?
From the prevention and control of multiple epidemics in Liaoning, Anhui, and Yunnan, it can be seen that the general epidemic will be controlled within 1 to 3 incubation periods. At the State Council Joint Prevention and Control Press Conference on June 11, Feng Zijian, a researcher at the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, once said that once a cluster of epidemics is discovered, the local party committee and government should quickly activate the emergency mechanism, quickly carry out circulation, and completely isolate the close contacts. , Carry out nucleic acid testing in time, and the epidemic will generally be effectively controlled within 1 to 3 incubation periods.
However, in Guangzhou, the transmission of the virus has reached 5 to 6 generations, and the incubation period experienced has already exceeded 3 or even reached 5 incubation periods.
China Business News found from the trajectory of confirmed case 6 announced on June 11 that it was a close contact of confirmed case 5 on June 8; confirmed case 5 was a close contact of confirmed case 4 (73 years old) on June 8 ; Confirmed case 4 is a close contact of the asymptomatic infected person transferred to the confirmed case on May 30; the 14 asymptomatic infected persons on May 30 were mostly close contacts on May 26.
It can be seen that the virus of the confirmed case on June 11 has crossed at least 5 incubation periods, and finally the confirmed case enters the hospital for treatment.
In the case of layer-by-layer management of close connection and close connection, why does the virus continue to pass down? Even passed the incubation period of 1~3?
Many questions have not yet been answered, and these answers may be related to the end of the Guangzhou epidemic.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/41373-global-shipping-conveyor-jit-pandemic-and-bdi[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/41373-global-shipping-conveyor-jit-pandemic-and-bdi ; One of the first things I wrote on Pandemics, in 2005, contained a section warning of the dangers to the supply chain caused by the combined effects of globalisation, Just-in-Time (JIT) manufacturing & distribution and Urbanisation - as a manifestation of population growth and its redistribution. More recently I have been concerned by the re-emergence of discussions on port closers as a means of slowing, or even preventing, pandemic spread. I have warned that this is a dangerous idea but not really taken the time to explain why - which I will now try to rectify.

I have referred to the system as the Global Conveyor (more properly reserved for the ocean's deep current system, also under threat with catastrophic consequences but for different reasons) but it is the web of ports and shipping lines that move all the tangible essentials for global trade that I am dealing with.

-

Disruption in the global container shipping industry shows no sign of being resolved quickly and could lead to shortages in the run-up to Christmas, say industry experts.
An outbreak of Covid-19 in Guangdong province in southern China has caused acute congestion at the region's ports. As a result, shipments have been delayed, exacerbating tensions within global supply chains.
And the knock-on effects could take many months to resolve.
The problems in Guangdong are just the latest in a series of severe setbacks for the industry. Shipping firms have been struggling to cope with dramatic fluctuations in demand triggered by the pandemic, as well as the consequences from the recent blockage of the Suez Canal ...

DJ-Also discussed elsewhere on this forum.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/vietnam-2019-ncov/917330-two-women-struggling-with-cancer-have-become-vietnam%E2%80%99s-56th-and-57th-coronavirus-fatalities-the-health-ministry-announced-friday[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/vietnam-2019-ncov/917330-two-women-struggling-with-cancer-have-become-vietnam%E2%80%99s-56th-and-57th-coronavirus-fatalities-the-health-ministry-announced-friday ;

One of them is 65 years old and from the northern Ninh Binh Province. She had cervical cancer and had gone through chemo and radiation therapies six different times.
...
She died on Thursday of septic shock, pneumonia caused by Covid-19, fungal infection on the background of cervical cancer with metastases in abdominal lymph nodes, the health ministry said.

The 57th death is a 59-year-old woman in northern Ha Nam Province.

She was in the last stage of gallbladder cancer and was also treated at the K Hospital.
...
Ten days into Covid-19 treatment, she must use the ventilator. She also got blood clot disorder and superinfection...

DJ The Vietnam-variant is not yet in this (growing) list [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern . Vietnam so far reporting 57 deaths in this pandemic is a "very low number"...Did they do that well in keeping the virus out or under control ? How ? If they managed that well other countries could learn from it !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917333-uk-nervtag-report-on-immunity-after-natural-covid-infection[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/917333-uk-nervtag-report-on-immunity-after-natural-covid-infection

A population based study out of Denmark publish in March 2021 (see Denmark SSI: Assessment of Protection Against Reinfection with SARS-CoV-2) found that those under 65 are about 80% protected - at in the short term (6 months) - against reinfection with COVID-19.


Among those aged 65 and over, however, that protection is estimated to be only 47%.

It should be noted that these results were based primarily on the older, `wild type' COVID, not the recently emerged variants carrying the E484K mutation, and so these numbers may not hold true going forward.

-

While COVID infection appears to leave behind significant community immunity even 8 months post infection, not everyone comes away with the same high level of protection.

Citing a low confidence level, this report finds roughly half of those over 65 may be vulnerable to reinfection, while they more confidently submit that close to 20% of the rest of the population may be susceptible to symptomatic reinfection within the first 7 months.


They also warn that: Protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, disease, and transmission may be diminished by antigenic changes in variant viruses (high confidence).

DJ-(Natural) Immunity is a very complex story-certainly with a growing number of variants and mass vaccinations in a limited number of richer countries. I expect booster shots will be needed-also next year-to offer protection. Even if we would be very, very lucky in a few rich countries and decrease in cases would last (the "Israel scenario") vaccines may be needed to keep local flare up of cases limited. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917332-prayagraj-first-case-of-yellow-fungus-reported-in-city-dire-need-for-amphotericin-b[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917332-prayagraj-first-case-of-yellow-fungus-reported-in-city-dire-need-for-amphotericin-b and

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917331-doctors-at-patna-s-igims-remove-cricket-ball-sized-black-fungus-from-man-s-brain[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917331-doctors-at-patna-s-igims-remove-cricket-ball-sized-black-fungus-from-man-s-brain 

DJ-Fungul coinfections should be expected much more...will increase the number of people dying in this pandemic. The first six months of this year (not even over yet...) did see more people dying from Covid 19 then all of 2020. The second half of this year could even see a higher number then the first half...we are not doing enough to stop it...reopening much to fast...To many different variants are increasing, mixing-most likely vaccines will offer less protection over time...even with booster shots.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/917329-rutin-a-potential-antiviral-for-repurposing-as-a-sars-cov-2-main-protease-mpro-inhibitor[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/treatments/917329-rutin-a-potential-antiviral-for-repurposing-as-a-sars-cov-2-main-protease-mpro-inhibitor ; Various computational studies, including in silico ones, have identified several existing compounds that could serve as effective inhibitors of the SARS-CoV-2 main protease (Mpro), and thus preventing replication of the virus. Among these, rutin has been identified as a potential hit, having prominent binding affinity to the virus. Moreover, its presence in several traditional antiviral medicines prescribed in China to infected patients with mild to moderate symptoms of COVID-19 justify its promise as a repurposed bioactive secondary metabolite against SARS-CoV-2.

DJ-Good news ! If we may not be able to stop this pandemic better treatment is needed !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917327-pa-did-pneumonia-kill-dozens-of-deer-in-dauphin-county-in-2019[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917327-pa-did-pneumonia-kill-dozens-of-deer-in-dauphin-county-in-2019 ; Pneumonia may have played a part in the deaths of about 2 dozen deer in the Powell’s Valley area of northern Dauphin County. Hunters and others in the Carsonville area, east of Halifax, started finding dead and sick deer in late November. The animals had not been shot or otherwise injured.

Now, according to the Pennsylvania Game Commission, preliminary test results from 3 of the deer showed they all had “one or more types of pneumonia.” Further testing for other diseases has not yet returned results...

DJ-Very likely NOT related to Covid19-still corona virusses in (other then human) animals has been a problem for decades.,..

No new video from Dr. John Campbell-yet...So...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8O3xCpC6M8[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8O3xCpC6M8 Blondie-Denis...was it 1977 ? Debbie Harry even got invited by the muppets !

Due to extreme weather I may spread reporting over the day, start at another moment-or even not/limit reporting. In a "bad scenario" we could end up in a heat wave lasting months...Later in the week we may get 35C/close to 100F. Most heat waves in NL are in july and august. Unofficial heatrecord was north of Arnhem in 2019-around 43C/close to 110F. At those temperatures forrests may become "explosive"...Stay safe !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2021 at 9:35pm

DJ, 

In a crisis the first tool you need is info. 

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Top 10 of new cases with global new cases 300,000+/deaths 6,745 being reported. 

At #1 India-allthough some parts (New Delhi etc) are reopening still reporting over 62,500 new cases-for june 14 the only country reporting 1,000+ deaths at 1,452. At #2,3,4 Brazil, Colombia, Argentina between 40,000+ and 20,000+ new cases. #5 is Russia-low vaccination-increase in cases with a lot of them in the Moscow region. #6 is Iran-just like #7 USA reporting over 10,000 new cases. At #8 is Indonesia (under)reporting 8,000+ cases-proberbly a lot in urban area's and a mix of variants. The UK is at #9-7,742 new cases-most Delta-variant reported-strong urban link. At #10 is Philippines (under)reporting almost 6,500 new cases. 

A major cluster in South America, SE Asia also in problems. With Iran and Turkey (#12), Iraq #14 the Middle East also in crisis. 

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global -10%, India -30%...if you would correct for the india numbers the downward trend gets even smaller. 

The top 25 of increase by % often are small countries, or countries with limited testing or limited numbers-so 0 cases last week 2 cases this week = increase of 200%....African countries are high in this list. South Africa is #26-increae of 54%. UK reporting an increase of 45%-52,077 cases last week-at the end of this week the UK may be getting close to 20,000 new cases per day. 

In total 73 countries reporting increases, from Brazil, Vietnam, Russia, Philippines, to Cuba, China...

A look at variants-allthough better statistics showing development in time would be welcome [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/  (I will also try to put some of these numbers in latest news/India variant statistics) for the Delta variant UK now did find a total of 32,181 cases, US 2,573, Germany 830, Canada 462, Singapore 305, Ireland 262, Australia 260, Belgium 237...Russia 186, NL in GISAID has 86 cases-Dutch CDC reporting much lower numbers...

Then there is also the India-Kappa variant [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant#Statistics much lower numbers...

The picture of this pandemic is becoming unclear-due to decrease most of the UK variant and India-variant-reported cases-from India while other variants are increasing. In total numbers one should correct for the India numbers to see developments more global. 

Vaccinations worldwide are increasing-offering protection. (To see how good rhey protect one should realize there are absolute and relative numbers involved. Absolute numbers is what you may find in the vaccinated person-the immune response, antibodies, T/B cells etc. Relative numbers are a vaccinated person may have much better protection if the population is seeing 80% vaccination then 10%...Vaccine effectivity increases with % of population being vaccinated going up. For the Delta-variant that may mean-for example- I do not have any science based numbers-best vaccins offer 80% protection if less then 10% of the population is vaccinated but 95% if 80%+ of the population is vaccinated...) Another factor is some form of NPI will stay; working from home being more accepted, not shaking hands, wider openinghours for supermarkets, washing your hands...hygiene-to where you go on holiday. I expect less international air travel for the coming years...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917394-cidrap-covid-19-cases-rise-slightly-across-us[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917394-cidrap-covid-19-cases-rise-slightly-across-us ; Across the United States, COVID-19 cases rose slightly this past week, while deaths and hospitalizations continued to drop.
Yesterday the country recorded 4,574 new COVID-19 cases and 105 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker. In total the country has confirmed 33,469,661 cases and 599,924 deaths. This week, milestone 600,000 deaths will likely be met.
New daily COVID-19 cases rose by 1.3% in the past week, according to the Washington Post, with new daily deaths falling by 21.8% and COVID-related hospitalizations falling by 10.6%. Among reported tests, the positivity rate was 2%.

States note increases, but report less often

At least eight states are recording rising 7-day averages for infection rates over the past 2 weeks, including Alabama, Arkansas, Hawaii, Missouri, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. Of those states, only Hawaii has a vaccination rate of 43% or more, which matches the average across the country.
The slight increase in virus activity comes as most states are reopening fully, and many states are now choosing to report new cases less frequently than they did 1 year ago.
At least 24 states have scaled back how often they report COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, NPR reports. Some states have stopped reporting data over the weekends, while Florida and Oklahoma are reporting data only once a week. Public health experts worry that cutting back on daily reporting could leave states in the dark about new outbreaks.

DJ-Looking at [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table US did see -16%, last week 109,815 cases, this week 92,327. Part of the story for the US is some states not seeing a lot of people getting vaccinated. Also-less testing. less reporting means statistics will create an unclear picture...DJ-The picture I have of the US is increased level of protection from the virus due to vaccines but also several variants increasing-most in unvaccinated. Also from the link; Minority vaccination rates differ

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID Data Tracker shows 374,398,105 COVID-19 vaccine doses have been delivered in the United States and 309,322,545 have been administered, with 143,921,222 Americans fully vaccinated.
Across the country, states are making every effort to meet President Joe Biden's Jul 4 goal of having 70% of adults with at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose, but new analysis from Kaiser Health News shows that Black and Hispanic Americans will not meet that goal and are lagging behind white and Asian Americans when it comes to vaccination rates.
The analysis, which included Americans ages 12 and up (Biden's goal is for 18 and up), shows that at the current pace of vaccination, by Jul 4 Asian people are the only group estimated to exceed a 70% vaccination rate. White people (66%) and Hispanic people (63%) will just meet the goal, and only about half (51%) of Black people will have received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose.
The analysis projects that it will be the end of July before 70% of Hispanics have at least one dose, and by September, Black Americans will still have not met that goal. White Americans should meet the 70% goal by Aug 2.

DJ-I think information, communication, trust are key factors here. You fight bad-info with good-info on social media...enforcing vaccinations is sending the wrong signal. Related;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917393-cidrap-spread-of-delta-covid-19-variant-slows-uk-reopening[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917393-cidrap-spread-of-delta-covid-19-variant-slows-uk-reopening ; At a briefing today, Johnson said the country will delay the step until about Jul 19 in order to allow more people to be vaccinated and to have their second dosed amid rising Delta variant activity, according to the BBC. He said cases are climbing by 64% per week and are doubling each week in the country's hot spots.
He said by Jul 19, officials project that two-thirds of adults will have received both vaccine doses.
Though full reopening is postponed, the government today eased capacity limits for weddings and wakes, as long as distancing measures can be maintained.
UK officials said hospitalizations have risen by 50% , which mostly involved people under age 65, the reverse of the pattern seen in earlier surges, according to The Guardian.
In a related development, Public Health England today said the two vaccines used in the United Kingdom performed well against the Delta variant after two doses. Its researchers found that the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was 96% effective and that the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine was 92% effective against the variant.

-

  • Chinese doctors have observed that patients infected with the Delta variant, which is fueling outbreaks in Guangdong province, are sicker with conditions worsening more quickly that the original virus, the New York Times reported, citing comments from state TV.

DJ-Another interesting statistic could be on how much Covid19 is becoming an urban problem-lasting there longer, harder to contain, more problems in communication, vaccination. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917392-cidrap-novavax-covid-vaccine-90-effective-in-phase-3-trial[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917392-cidrap-novavax-covid-vaccine-90-effective-in-phase-3-trialNovavax's two-dose COVID-19 vaccine showed 90% overall vaccine efficacy (VE), 100% protection against moderate and severe illness, and 93% VE against variants of concern and of interest in a phase 3 US clinical trial in adults, according to a company news release today.
Maryland-based Novavax plans to file for regulatory authorization for adults within the next few months, the release said. While authorization wouldn't likely have much effect on the already robust US vaccine supply, it could provide a badly needed boost to the international vaccine rollout. Another plus is that it doesn't require ultra-cold temperatures for shipping and storage.

DJ Can the mix of NPI and vaccination end this pandemic ? We may-from time to time have to increase NPI, need new vaccines to deal with new variants...Worldwide we are in a very serious crisis still. But the less room variants get the less mutations resulting in new variants that can become more resistent. Summer may also help...But the big difference may be in Latin America, Africa, Asia...we "have to beat the pandemic there" ! If we want to get out of the pandemic !

A warning from the UK : [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917263-england-johnson-set-to-delay-lockdown-easing-by-one-month-due-to-increasing-covid-19-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917263-england-johnson-set-to-delay-lockdown-easing-by-one-month-due-to-increasing-covid-19-cases latest; 11 June 2021
The R range for England is 1.2 to 1.4 and the growth rate range for England is +3% to +6% per day as of 11 June 2021.

DJ-A.o. also China is finding it hard to get a grip on the India/Delta variant-on the increase worldwide. Sequencing still is poor, testing is going down...lots of cases are being missed ! Statistics can be usefull but do not tell all of the story !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/915010-variant-first-identified-in-india-labelled-as-variant-of-concern-by-public-health-england-b-1-617-2?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/915010-variant-first-identified-in-india-labelled-as-variant-of-concern-by-public-health-england-b-1-617-2?view=stream latest; The data, collected as part of the app-based Zoe Covid symptom study, suggests that the Delta variant first detected in India feels like a “bad cold”, according to Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, who is leading the work.

“Covid is … acting differently now, it’s more like a bad cold,” he said. “People might think they’ve just got some sort of seasonal cold, and they still go out to parties … we think this is fuelling a lot of the problem. So, what’s really important to realise is that since the start of May, we’ve been looking at the top symptoms in all the app users, and they’re not the same as they were. So, the number one symptom is headache … followed by sore throat, runny nose and fever.”

-

He said: "Of course the numbers of cases are relatively low at the moment - all waves start with low numbers of cases that grumble in the background and then become explosive, so the key here is that what we are seeing here is the signs of an early wave."

However, he said the number of people who had been vaccinated in the UK meant this wave would probably take longer to emerge than previous ones.

"There may be a false sense of security for some time, and that's our concern."

DJ-A "bad cold" in young people does not sound alarming. One part of the Delta variant (both UK, China, India) is a R0 that may be as high as 8. Short incubation period could be two or three days. So if you put the incubation time at 2,5 days, the R0 at 8 that results in 1 (P1) cases+2,5 days being 1+8 new=9 (P=F1),  each infecting 8 others=9x8=72+the 9+72=81 (P+F1+F2) in 5 days...if there would be no NPI/vaccines...say in a meat production plant...

Another part is it will spread to other age groups..that may see more then just a "bad cold". Pneumonia may bring them in hospital care...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917189-thailand-media-covid-19-delta-variant-has-spread-to-11-provinces-june-11-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917189-thailand-media-covid-19-delta-variant-has-spread-to-11-provinces-june-11-2021?view=stream latest;  A series of new outbreaks recently detected in factories in Thailand have raised concerns that the export sector of this country is seriously affected, negatively impacting its economy as the South Asian country -Is strives to straighten up.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has spread to more than 130 factories, including factories supplying international brands, with more than 7,100 infections in 11 provinces, making the manufacturing sector one of the most serious sources of infections, next to construction sites and prisons.

The Thailand currently has 63,000 plants with 3.4 million employees, but authorities fear the negative impact on exports significantly affect industry on the struggling economy after tourism industry collapse due to the COVID-19 epidemic .

To date, some production sites affected by the epidemic have been forced to reduce their operations. Thailand has recorded a total of 199,264 COVID-19 cases and 1,466 deaths.

The Ministry of Industry has set a deadline for factories until the end of June to improve conditions for preventing epidemics, including providing masks and checking workers' body temperatures

DJ-In a lot of "poor countries" variants still have a lot of room. Limited vaccination/testing-lots of asymptomatic spread in young people, low natural immunity...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917362-black-fungus-baffles-north-bengal-medical-college-and-hospital-doctors[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917362-black-fungus-baffles-north-bengal-medical-college-and-hospital-doctors ;“According to our observations, mucormycosis cases in bigger volume are now found in India. It is not easy to say what is leading to the sudden surge of the cases in the past few weeks. Rational use of steroids is advised to check mucormycosis, but the disease is also being detected among Covid patients who did not use steroids at all. The steroids are also used for the treatment of patients suffering from diseases like rheumatoid arthritis and nephrotic syndrome. However, the trend of mucormycosis is not found there. On the other hand, there are patients suffering from the disease here who have not been infected with Covid-19. Therefore, I would like to call the situation a scientific dilemma,” said Dr Smarajit Banik of the department of medicine.

Mucormycosis is a fungal infection mostly found in patients with compromised immune systems. While there has been an outbreak of the infection among Covid-19 patients, it was prevalent even before the pandemic, experts have said. NBMCH principal Prof Indrajit Saha said mucormycosis had been detected also among persons who had received Covid treatment under home isolation, and were not admitted in hospitals.

“It has been observed that contamination of oxygen humidifiers in hospitals may also be reasons for the mucormycosis, but the disease is also showing in patients who were never admitted in hospitals and remained in home isolation without oxygen support,” Prof Saha said. One the other hand, being one of the ‘regional hubs’ for the management of recalcitrant mucormycosis cases, the NBMCH needs to create the infrastructure for plastic surgery, as the surgical debridement is the key to controlling and eliminating mucormycosis, the doctors said...

DJ-Where fungul infections on the increase before the India-variant did hit India ? How linked are increasing fungul infections with this pandemic ? 

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-a19Pk-yCQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-a19Pk-yCQ Monday Update (but he me rename it..)

A look at statistics-UK cases going up-but US, Ireland cases going flat...(our world in data statistics...) DJ-I notice a trend that statistics show different numbers for several countries. Most of the reduction in cases may have been reached-via NPI, summer, vaccines...The global numbers were influenced by high numbers-most from India-first going up, then going down...Further from under Dr. J.C. his video;

UK, delay to 19th July 10 million more vaccine doses

Delta variant Higher viral loads for longer Detected in 74 countries Most contagious variant so far China, Namibia, US, Scandinavia, Pacific, Mongolia, Brazil, Argentina, Chile 

Change in presentation Cold like features Symptoms now (since May) Headache Sore throat Runny nose Fever Cough No loss of smell 

Guangzhou, China 12% of patients becoming severely or critically ill within three to four days symptom onset Consistent reduced vaccine efficacy after one dose

Indonesia Delta increasing New wave of infections, peak early July Jakarta hospitals, 75% 

Democratic Republic of the Congo Kinshasa, hospitals overwhelmed President, Félix Tshisekedi I am going to take drastic measures to deal with this upsurge of the disease We’re talking about the Indian variant in particular

Zimbabwe Localised lockdowns

Delta variant in the US Currently 10% of Covid-19 cases in the US B.1.617.2 variant Proportion is doubling every two weeks Probably will become the dominant strain in the US.  

Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner, US Food and Drug Administration I think in parts of the country where you have less vaccination particularly in parts of the South, where you have some cities where vaccination rates are low there's a risk that you could see outbreaks with this new variant Where less than 50% of adults have had at least one dose Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, Wyoming

DJ There are a few main items I try to follow;

-Newer variants

-Spread in non-human hosts

-Quality of statistics

Maybe Vietnam was the last country reporting a new variant not yet in [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2#Variants_of_concern . Also interesting is [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_animals[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_animals but it does not include studies on mice and rats being able to "get and spread" most variants...

Statistics is based on cases being tested and reported-and there were allready problems there...For variants you also need sequencing-taking time, expensive-so very limited. One may be very optimistic to see 10%+ of all global cases being tested, 1%+ being sequenced. The picture we have is based on very limited info. Like walking in a dark room with eyes closed...

In the bigger picture this pandemic comes on top of an already excisting global healthcrisis. From obesity, diabetes, HIV, TB, to multi resistent bacteria-making anti-biotics useless, growing inequality-making health care-even basic-less accessible for many, a growing food crisis. Climate collapse is another worry...

-Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPoiv0sZ4s4[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPoiv0sZ4s4 "M" Pop Muzik 1979


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 14 2021 at 10:26pm

It seems that while Eastern Europe's rates are falling the current hot spots (when measured in fatalities) are spread around (although there is a heavy concentration in South America):


Figures are in deaths / million for the two weeks 1st-14th June (all data taken from (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)  on the day of reporting (Peru's figures included the massive revision, which I have not back dated

Peru (3,578),  Paraguay (244), Uruguay (218), Suriname (185), Argentina (173), Colombia (147). Bahrain (145), Brazil (118), Sint Maarten (92), Bolivia (90), Seychelles (85), Romania (82), Chile (77), Tunisia (76).


If Tunisia is doing so badly, I wonder what the real rates for the rest of North Africa are.   Also Bahrain's current rate is much worse than Turkey or Iran's so I also wonder what is really happening on the Arab Peninsular. 

 [added later:  I know that neither Turkey nor Iran are in the Arab Peninsular, but figures for Saudi Arabia and many of the neighbouring countries are still much lower than Bahrain]


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 15 2021 at 1:24am

South America is in winter same as us here,I expect to see an explosion of cases on the USA come winter

Take care all 😷😉


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2021 at 7:55am

DJ

I have growing doubts on the official numbers [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ is trying to update the numbers of variants...A Dutch article [url]https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/indiase-variant-rukt-op-in-nederland-onderzoek-naar-jongeren-die-examenfeestjes-zijn-gaan-vieren~a508759f/[/url] or https://www.gelderlander.nl/binnenland/indiase-variant-rukt-op-in-nederland-onderzoek-naar-jongeren-die-examenfeestjes-zijn-gaan-vieren~a508759f/ is warning last week 205 possible India/Delta variant cases may have shown up in groups of young people 15-19 y/o returning from Spain/Portugal holidays/party-times. Mixing a.o. with UK age group. Testing under the not vaccinated under 30 y/o may be minimal. 

Also wrong communication as the Delta-variant giving "severe cold" like symptoms-while experts warn twice as many people having the Delta-variant end up in hospital-does not help. In Nijmegen University Hospital an expert is warning in east of NL last week 5% of cases were Delta variant-this week 9%-we could be in +90% of cases being Delta variant in five weeks...

Dutch CDC is ad random sequencing cases-in their numbers they miss most/all Delta variant-cases because the young-so far-hardly test...There is community spread of the Delta variant-the Dutch CDC see them as very limited-even lower then the GISAID numbers...

NL is opening up high speed-there are plans to stop using masks in lots of places, no mandatory social distancing per june 24...But we may be missing almost all of the Delta-variant cases...so this reopening could be based on wrong numbers...

EdwinSm-I think we may be seeing an international problem with testing. Proberbly will find out a very hard way-this summer-could face an India-explosion like scenario. R0 may be 6 to 8 in unvaccinated "party people" enjoying freedom to travel and party...

-[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table trends-based on testing, reporting-so missing a lot of cases if people do not test...-6% worldwide. India being in high numbers has now gone out of the statistics...UK reporting +39%...US -15% but can we trust these numbers ? 

Here in NL lots of experts see room based on official numbers-while others are warning-certainly those that work with younger age groups. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/16/delta-coronavirus-variant-gaining-ground-nl[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/16/delta-coronavirus-variant-gaining-ground-nl

The Delta variant of the coronavirus, which was first identified in India and is partly blamed for the massive second wave in the country, is gaining ground in the Netherlands. Experts at public health institute RIVM don't expect this variant to cause massive problems here, like it's doing in the United Kingdom, NU.nl reports.

Last week the RIVM's germ surveillance found the Delta or B.1.617.2 variant in 0.5 percent of 1,148 samples tested. This week, after testing 610 samples, this variant was found in 1.1 percent - a share that is 120 percent higher than last week.


For experts at the RIVM, this is indication that the Delta variant is indeed more contagious than the original variant of the coronavirus. The public health institute believes it likely that this variant will continue to gain ground, but doesn't expect it to happen as rapidly as in the UK. Early in May the Delta variant was responsible for a quarter of UK infections. Last week that increased to 91 percent.

The Delta variant spread quickly in the UK partly due to the many direct flights between the country and India. The UK also started relaxing lockdown measures in March, so residents had more contact with one another. The Netherlands has fewer direct flights from India, about seven per week. And only started relaxing lockdown measures on a large scale last month. 


The UK's choice of vaccine also played a role. So far, the Covid-19 vaccines in use seem to be less, but sufficiently effective against the Delta variant. "However, the British government made full use of he AstraZeneca vaccine, which offers less protection after one shot with this variant than, for example, the Pfizer vaccine that is used more here," a RIVM spokesperson said to NU.nl

DJ-Some experts claim 5% of samples were Delta variant last week-this week up to 9%...Dutch CDC/RIVM 0,5% last week-this week 1,1% may be missing most/all cases in younger age groups. [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/16/mandatory-face-mask-rule-abolished-next-week-heath-minister-says[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/06/16/mandatory-face-mask-rule-abolished-next-week-heath-minister-says

The rule obligating people to wear face masks in many indoor public spaces in the Netherlands could disappear as early as next week, Health Minister Hugo de Jonge said after a meeting of ministers on Wednesday. The final decision will be made on Friday prior to the next prime time coronavirus press conference, he told reporters gathered outside.

“We are reassessing all measures. Which measures are still necessary, and which can be removed,” said De Jonge after consultation with his colleagues. “We are vaccinating very quickly, and then you weigh, what measures are still needed? I think we can say goodbye to quite a few measures, but some will still be needed.”

DJ Vaccinations are going high speed-but under 25 y/o may believe they will not be at risk. Also holiday is not getting testing/vaccines...in their eyes.

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/06/delta-coronavirus-variant-is-more-widespread-in-nl-but-experts-dont-expect-a-surge/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/06/delta-coronavirus-variant-is-more-widespread-in-nl-but-experts-dont-expect-a-surge/ ; The Delta variant may spread more quickly once the summer holiday season gets underway, as tourists from the Netherlands meet British visitors abroad, Nu.nl said. Figures from the RIVM do show that more people are thought to have picked up coronavirus abroad and almost 6% of all positive tests in the past week involve people who have recently travelled out of the country. Some seven flights a week arrive in the Netherlands from India now that the ban on air travel has been lifted and replaced by mandatory quarantine. Visitors to Britain also have to go into mandatory quarantine on their return.

DJ-Of course I hope to be wrong...but we have been here before last year...

[url]https://dutchreview.com/news/travellers-from-spain-and-portugal-bring-coronavirus-infections/[/url] or https://dutchreview.com/news/travellers-from-spain-and-portugal-bring-coronavirus-infections/

The number of infections in Spain and Portugal has increased slightly over the past couple of days, especially among young people. At the same time, both countries recently relaxed most of their coronavirus restrictions.


Spain ditched curfew last month, with the Basque Country no longer implementing restrictions on how many people can be together in a group. Nightlife in Madrid is also slowly going back to normal, with dancing allowed outside, albeit with a face mask and at a 1.5 metres distance. 

However, many young people don’t adhere to the rules that are still in place. “On one hand, you see that the government is trying to open things up to attract tourists but on the other hand, the rules are poorly understood — especially by young people. The youth culture is together on the beach, partying and drinking,” correspondent Rop Zoutberg tells the NOS.


Dutch infections keep going down

Coronavirus infections coming from abroad are of particular concern especially as the numbers in the Netherlands keep dropping. The number of positive coronavirus tests decreased in 288 of the 352 Dutch municipalities last week, reports RTL Nieuws

For most municipalities (208), the risk level “concern” applies, meaning there are between 35 and 100 positive tests per 100,000 inhabitants. Serious risk level now only applies to 15 municipalities, compared to 86 municipalities last week.

DJ-This is-of course-not only a Dutch story !

-A look at flutrackers latest post;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/917498-study-nineteen-percent-of-asymptomatic-covid-19-patients-develop-long-haul-covid-analysis-of-private-healthcare-claims-june-15-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/917498-study-nineteen-percent-of-asymptomatic-covid-19-patients-develop-long-haul-covid-analysis-of-private-healthcare-claims-june-15-2021 ;

Findings about long-haul COVID reported in FAIR Health's white paper include:

  • The five most common post-COVID conditions across all ages, in order from most to least common, were pain, breathing difficulties, hyperlipidemia, malaise and fatigue, and hypertension.
  • The odds of death 30 days or more after initial diagnosis with COVID-19 were 46 times higher for patients who were hospitalized with COVID-19 and discharged than patients who had not been hospitalized. Of COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized and discharged, 0.5 percent died 30 days or more after their initial diagnosis.
  • Among COVID-19 patients with preexisting conditions, intellectual disabilities were associated with the highest odds of death 30 days or more after initial COVID-19 diagnosis.
  • In addition to asymptomatic patients, those presenting with post-COVID conditions included 27.5 percent of COVID-19 patients who were symptomatic but not hospitalized, 50 percent of hospitalized patients and 23.2 percent of all patients who had COVID-19.
  • The ranking of the most common post-COVID conditions varied by age group. For example, in the pediatric population (0-18), pain and breathing difficulties were the top two conditions, as in the all-ages cohort, but intestinal issues, rather than hyperlipidemia, were the third most common.
  • Most of the post-COVID conditions that were evaluated were associated more with females than males. In the case of 12 conditions, however, males more commonly had the condition diagnosed than females. For example, of patients who had post-COVID cardiac inflammation, 52 percent were male and 48 percent female. By age, the largest share (25.4 percent) with this cardiac condition was found in a young cohort—individuals aged 19-29.
  • Of the four mental health conditions evaluated as post-COVID conditions, anxiety was associated with the highest percentage of patients after COVID-19 in all age groups. Depression was second, adjustment disorders third and tic disorders fourth.

DJ-If there is a large spread in young unvaccinated age groups-not getting tested-they may infect younger family members-start a spread from there. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/906307-pandemic-started-in-us-before-2020-we-just-didn-t-know-it?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/united-states-2019-ncov/906307-pandemic-started-in-us-before-2020-we-just-didn-t-know-it?view=stream latest; In a recently published NIH report, findings of 24,000 stored blood samples taken in early 2020 suggest that the virus was spreading in Dec 2019 in the United States. (Sam[les were taken in Illinois, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin)

In this study, the first positive samples came from participants in Illinois and Massachusetts on Jan. 7 and 8, 2020, respectively, suggesting that the virus was present in those states in late December.
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news...-infections-us

In the Red Cross study (see previous post), COVID-19 may have been present in California, Oregon, and Washington as early as Dec. 13-16, 2019, and in Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin as early as Dec. 30, 2019 - Jan. 17, 2020.

To date, the first deaths that have been published occurred in the states of Kansas, North Carolina and New Jersey during the week of Jan 5-11, 2020 (see previous post) and in the following week (Jan 12-18, 2020) deaths were in California, Oklahoma and Ohio.

This information would tend to indicate that the virus was circulating nationwide in December 2019 and introduced even before that in the United States.

DJ-It would be welcome if lots of countries would open up on all kind of sampling from 2019 to see if we can learn more on the spread. See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917446-nih-study-offers-new-evidence-of-early-sars-cov-2-infections-in-u-s[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917446-nih-study-offers-new-evidence-of-early-sars-cov-2-infections-in-u-s (among more)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/africa-all-other-diseases/916585-19-people-poisoned-from-eating-sick-camel-meat-suffering-from-unknown-disease-in-southern-somalia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa/africa-all-other-diseases/916585-19-people-poisoned-from-eating-sick-camel-meat-suffering-from-unknown-disease-in-southern-somalia DJ-Unclear what disease these camals have-MERS was camel-related but (I believe) camels mostly spread the virus-now they get sick and die...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917465-namibia-parliament-temporarily-suspended-as-several-members-test-positive-for-covid-19-6-south-african-tourists-died-june-15-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917465-namibia-parliament-temporarily-suspended-as-several-members-test-positive-for-covid-19-6-south-african-tourists-died-june-15-2021 DJ-No further info on what variant (proberbly no sequencing...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917463-china-covid-19-variant-delta-b-1-617-2-found-in-nanning-guangxi-province-june-12-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917463-china-covid-19-variant-delta-b-1-617-2-found-in-nanning-guangxi-province-june-12-2021 ;According to a CCTV news client report on June 12, on the 11th, the Micro-inspection Department of the Nanning Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Guangxi took less than two days to perform a high-throughput whole genome on a sample of the new crown of Indonesian immigrants sent by Nanning Customs for inspection and review. After sequencing, it was confirmed that it was infected with the new coronavirus delta mutant B.1.617.2 subtype. This is the first time that Nanning, Guangxi has detected an Indian mutant subtype of the new crown virus from a sample of immigrants. At the same time, it has once again sounded the alarm for the prevention and control of the epidemic in Guangxi. The battle for the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not yet won the final victory. Can't tolerate the slightest slack.

DJ-Further spread in China of Delta-variant. Will further influence global economy.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917456-cidrap-ongoing-covid-surges-in-multiple-regions-keep-nations-on-edge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917456-cidrap-ongoing-covid-surges-in-multiple-regions-keep-nations-on-edge ;

Cases in Africa are up for the fifth week a row, the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office said today in its weekly outbreaks and health emergencies report. Overall, the region's cases increased 36.3% over the previous week.
South Africa reported more than half of last week's cases, and other hot spots include Zambia, Uganda, Namibia, and Kenya. Twenty countries reported rises in cases, with increases of 50% or more in 10 of them.

-

In Russia, the number of daily cases has risen to their highest levels since February, Reuters reported. Moscow, responsible for roughly half of new daily cases, recently imposed new restrictions, and some cities in Primorye region in the country's far east have added hospital beds, expecting to experience another wave of infections.

A Kremlin spokesperson said government officials are disappointed by low demand for the Sputnik V vaccine, which was introduced in December and made available to everyone in Moscow. City officials are planning to offer cars in prize drawings to boost vaccination levels.

Pakistani officials are also worried about low vaccine uptake and are taking a tough stance by blocking people's cell phone service in two provinces and suspending the pay of some government employees who have not been immunized, according to the New York Times.

In Southeast Asia, Indonesia has beefed up its distancing measures as the Delta (B1617.2) variant gains a foothold and hospital capacity in locations such as Jakarta come under stress, according to the Washington Post.

And in the Americas, health officials in Chile recently reimposed a lockdown in and around the capital city Santiago due to record COVID activity, according to Deutsche Welle. The country is experiencing a stubborn surge that has been under way since April, despite having Latin America's highest vaccination level. Officials said contributing factors might include lower effectiveness of the Sinovac vaccine against the Gamma (P1) variant or that people aren't adhering to restrictions.


More global headlines

  • Indian officials are investigating reports that testing agencies forged as many as 100,000 test results at the Kumbh Mela event in April, a massive Hindu gathering that is thought to have contributed to the country's recent surge, according to the New York Times.
  • Seven countries in the Americas have reported COVID-related mucormycosis (black fungus) cases, according to an epidemiologic alert from the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). It included a summary table of 16 patients, all of whom had underlying health conditions. Nine of them died. PAHO urged countries to increase their clinical suspicion for the fungal infection, especially in patients with diabetes, on corticosteroids, or on immunosuppressants.
  • The global total today rose to 176,403,368 cases, and 3,814,946 people have died from their infections, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ-Pandemic is far from over.

-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0-90kvoQac[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R0-90kvoQac Dr. John Campbell;

vaccination and ivermectin, info under the video. 

-Music-Status Quo-Rockin All Over The World [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw_sJifUYgM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yw_sJifUYgM 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 16 2021 at 9:51pm

DJ,

Trying to make sense from the available info. [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global trend -5%...India drop in (reported) cases did bring that number over -10% last week-a lot of EU countries most of US also did see a decrease in numbers. 

UK, Portugal did see increases. In the list highest increases by % Portugal now at #41-reporting an increase of +38%. Last week 4,260 cases, this week 5,873-at least in part travel/tourism related-with also people from UK mixing with people from several other countries...UK at #46-with an increase of 32%-last week 41,890 cases-this week 55,216.

Alarming Israel in this list at #20-still in low numbers last week 68, this week 135....but high level of vaccination and good border control was supposed to get numbers close to 0...not up !

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Yesterday UK reported + 9,055 cases-still not close to the 20,000 per day expected later on this week. Spain + 3,832 new cases, Portugal + 1,350 new cases. 

Global number is close to 400,000 new cases and 9,462 reported deaths...Brazil in trends +24%-yesterday over 85,000 new cases being reported...South Africa +62%-yesterday reporting 13,246 cases...

Numbers on variants always are over a week old-China did manage to get that kind of numbers in three days-but that is an exception...[url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ UK now over 43,000 Delta-variant cases (as far as they seek testing...). US 2,574, Germany supposed to be 717, NL still on 76....very likely serious under reporting. Israel 65....

The P1/Brazil/Gamma variant detected 14,050 times in the US, 4,669 Canada, 1,232 Belgium, NL has 442 of those detected in limited, slow sequencing...

[url]https://dutchreview.com/news/parliament-wants-more-relaxations-from-june-26/[/url] or https://dutchreview.com/news/parliament-wants-more-relaxations-from-june-26/ - people are supposed to self isolate after return-no control on that, testing going down-specialy in younger age groups....

Lots of western countries opening up-"save the economy"..."freedom" etc. while cases are already going up in many places...."can't fix stupid"....

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917516-uk-the-gov-reported-a-further-9-055-cases-on-wed-the-highest-since-feb-25-and-up-by-almost-a-fifth-compared-to-a-day-earlier-covid-19-delta-variant-predominance-june-16-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917516-uk-the-gov-reported-a-further-9-055-cases-on-wed-the-highest-since-feb-25-and-up-by-almost-a-fifth-compared-to-a-day-earlier-covid-19-delta-variant-predominance-june-16-2021 Britain reported its highest daily total of new coronavirus infections since February, adding to signs that a new, more infectious variant of the disease first found in India is spreading.

The government reported a further 9,055 cases on Wednesday, the highest since Feb. 25, and up by almost a fifth compared to a day earlier.

This week, Britain delayed plans to lift most remaining COVID-19 restrictions by a month, saying the extra time would be used to speed up Britain's vaccination programme - already one of the world's furthest advanced.

DJ-1-Just like Israel the UK, US, Chile were in the top ten for vaccinations. But when restrictions go down cases still go up...even with limited testing (in young people sometimes NO testing because "children do not get severe disease so no need for testing"-stupid ! They SPREAD the virus-certainly when schools take them-as a group outing-end of the year-to party islands...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917226-wildlife-officials-investigating-mysterious-bird-illness-in-maryland-virginia-dc-ohio?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/animal-diseases-of-concern-excludes-h5n1/917226-wildlife-officials-investigating-mysterious-bird-illness-in-maryland-virginia-dc-ohio?view=stream latest ;
Signs of a mysterious illness that is causing crusted-over eyes, blindness, neurological issues, and even death is starting to show up in local birds. Larger birds such as blue jays, starlings, robins, and grackles seem to be most noticeably affected, but other birds may be affected as well. If you encounter sick or dead birds, please contact the Ohio Wildlife Center at 614.793.9453 or the Ohio Division of Wildlife at 1.800.WILDLIFE. Until the cause is determined, Preservation Parks has removed bird feeders from our parks to avoid any possible spread if the issue does happen to be caused by individual contact with other birds.

DJ-Yesterday a report on camels "dropping dead" in East Africa. This US birds story is over a week old. Corona-virusses are a long term problem in all kinds of animals (I believe even in fish....). It is unclear if yesterday camel/East Africa story was corona-virus related, or this US birds story....DJ-It is very likely Covid 19 could be spreading in non-human hosts. If those Covid-variants would be close to Covid19 variants they would show up in testing-if they are more remote it may need more study. 

Very likely NOT related-that direct-to the pandemic (I hope...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917511-cidrap-antibody-combo-cuts-covid-deaths-by-20-in-very-ill-seronegative-patients[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917511-cidrap-antibody-combo-cuts-covid-deaths-by-20-in-very-ill-seronegative-patientsRegeneron's monoclonal antibody treatment lowers the risk of death from COVID-19 by 20% in hospitalized patients with severe illness who haven't produced a natural immune response, according to preliminary results of the Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy (RECOVERY) phase 3 trial. The results were published on the medRxiv preprint server yesterday.
Earlier studies had found that Regeneron's combination of casirivimab and imdevimab (REGEN-COV) reduces viral load, leads to a shorter duration of symptoms, and cuts the risk of hospitalization and death in nonhospitalized coronavirus patients, and a small study suggested a clinical benefit in hospitalized COVID-19 patients with no antibody response to infection. But the UK-based RECOVERY Trial was the first study large enough to gauge a true effect on death in hospitalized patients.

DJ-Like Remdesivir-expensive and not helping patients-making Big Pharma rich and [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/corruption-is-profitable-but-does-it-have-to-be-this-profitable.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/06/corruption-is-profitable-but-does-it-have-to-be-this-profitable.html ;

Aduhlem, a drug that is supposed to slow Alzheimer's effects, had failed to show efficacy in two trials. It showed some reduction of plaques in the brain which may or may not be significant.

Ten of the eleven advisors of the Federal Drug Administration voted "no" when asked if there was enough evidence that the drug is useful. One voted "uncertain". Last week the FDA approved the drug and claimed that the plaques reduction effect is somewhat meaningful.

Three of the advisors resigned.

The cost per patient per year for the drug will be some $56,000. There are some 6 million people in the U.S. with Alzheimer's. Medicare and Medicaid, which will have to pay for the drug because it is FDA approved, will have to bear the costs. The company which makes the drug, Biogen, will gain ginormous profits from it. As will physicians who prescribe the drug, administer the infusions and bill 6% of the drug's price for it.

The above is a portrait of a deeply corrupt system in which all incentives are set in the wrong direction.

Now, corruption in national medical systems is not unusual and can be found all over the world. But what I find astonishing with the U.S. system is how little money companies like Biogen actually have to pay to get deals done that will make them billions.

The man who pushed for the FDA approval was no other than President Joe Biden. As the American Conservative, linked below, writes:

Less than two weeks prior to the approval, President Joe Biden said that “if we don’t do something about Alzheimer’s in America… every single [hospital bed] will be occupied in the next 15 years with an Alzheimer’s patient.” Guess which 2020 candidate was the largest recipient of campaign funds by a large margin from Biogen and affiliated parties? Joe Biden, with $76,241.

How cheap is that?

DJ Corruption is Big Pharma-profit/greed related. If we would get a global fourth wave-even with a high level of vaccinations-can we still transfer zillions of tax payers money to Big Pharma share holders ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917510-cidrap-cdc-delta-variant-now-10-of-us-covid-19-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917510-cidrap-cdc-delta-variant-now-10-of-us-covid-19-casesThe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday said that Delta, a highly transmissible COVID-19 variant first identified in India and currently sweeping through the United Kingdom, now makes up at least 10% of all US cases. On May 22, the variant had made up only 2.7% of cases.
The CDC also now designated Delta as a variant of concern, which means the agency officially recognizes that the variant may carry a risk of more severe illness and transmissibility. In addition to Delta, the CDC has noted five other variants of concern.
The rapid rise of the variant in the United Kingdom—where it now accounts for 90% of cases—has slowed that nation’s reopening efforts by 4 or 5 weeks.

New York fully opens with 70% of adults having at least 1 vaccine dose

In the United States, both California and New York are now fully reopened after successful vaccination campaigns.
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced yesterday that the state was relaxing all remaining COVID-19 restrictions after reaching its goal of vaccinating at least 70% of the population, according to Fox News. Masks will still be required in schools, subways, hospitals, nursing homes, larger venues, and jails and prisons.
Yesterday, the United States reported 11,304 new COVID-19 cases and 339 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 tracker. And the CDC COVID Data Tracker shows that 375,186,675 COVID-19 vaccine doses have been delivered in the United States, and 312,915,170 have been administered, with 146,456,124 Americans fully vaccinated (64.7% of adults have had at least one dose).
The country has two and half weeks until the Fourth of July, the deadline President Joe Biden has set for all Americans 18 and older to have had at least one vaccine dose.

DJ-Vaccination rates vary per region, city. If variants would explode in highly vaccinated area's we may be in a very serious problem. Israel cases going up is still in low numbers-likely most variants in unvaccinated or only vaccinated once. Pfizer and Moderna claim to protect against the variants so far close to 90%....So yes-not 100%-but fully vaccinated would face less severe health issues in (as good as) 100 % of the time...(and 99% still would be great !). 

Delta variant in US may 22 at 2,7%-june 16 at 10% is exponential growth...

Also in the link;

CDC offers first guidance on ‘long COVID’

In a much anticipated move, the CDC published this week guidance for health providers on how to treat ‘long' COVID-19 infections, defined as patients experiencing symptoms of the virus at least 4 weeks after a confirmed acute infection.

The CDC said primary care providers are most well-suited for handling these patients and that patients with post–COVID-19 conditions may share some symptoms that occur in patients who experience chronic fatigue syndrome, post-treatment Lyme disease, and mast cell activation syndrome.

Other US developments

  • The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) yesterday cleared 15 million doses of Johnson & Johnson vaccine that were produced at the Baltimore manufacturing plant run by Emergent BioSolutions, the Wall Street Journal The FDA had previously rejected 60 million doses from the plant because of possible contamination.
  • Congress and a private group are taking the first steps to investigate the pandemic and the nation's response to it.

DJ Long Covid=a big, growing problem. Countries should look into how they did deal so far-themselves-with this pandemic. Why the US missed Covid19 that much in december 2019-when it was already widespread in the US ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917509-cidrap-global-covid-cases-continue-decline-though-many-countries-still-struggle[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917509-cidrap-global-covid-cases-continue-decline-though-many-countries-still-struggle ;

Weekly COVID-19 cases dropped to their lowest level since February, though many countries are still struggling with sparse vaccine supply, the spread of variants, and overburdened health systems, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its weekly snapshot of the pandemic.

In other developments, the WHO said it is tracking one more variant of concern, first seen in Peru and called Lambda, which has genetic markers suggesting that it is more transmissible.


Complex picture with rises in some countries


In its weekly epidemiological update, the WHO said global cases were down 12% last week compared with the previous week, with declines seen in all world regions except Africa. The level of deaths is still high, but fatalities declined by 2%. The five countries reporting the most cases include India, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, and the United States.

African countries are among those that reported the biggest rises last week, including Zambia (up 125%), Uganda (49%), and South Africa (49%). Other countries experiencing notable rises include the United Kingdom (52%), Indonesia (38%), and Russia (31%).

At a Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) briefing today, its director, Carissa Etienne, MBBS, said Colombia's cases are at its highest level, with intensive care units (ICUs) in the country's major cities feeling pressure. She urged countries experiencing high transmission to tighten their public health measures until there is enough vaccine for more people.

In the Middle East, Oman's cases are surging amid the spread of variants and low vaccine uptake, according to the Washington Post. Also, the country's health ministry has reported three COVID-19–related murcomycosis (black fungus) cases.

WHO adds Lambda as variant of interest

Also in its update, the WHO said it added a new variant of interest, called C.37 and labeled Lambda, which was first reported by Peru last August. The WHO said it has been tracking the variant on an alert basis.

Lambda has now been linked to substantive transmission in multiple countries—29 across 5 WHO regions. However, it is most prevalent in South America, with officials in Peru reporting that 81% of cases sequenced since April are linked to the Lambda variant.

The WHO said Lambda has genetic markers suggesting it may be more transmissible and possibly more resistant to neutralizing antibodies, though more studies are needed to gauge the impact of countermeasures as well as vaccine effectiveness.

More global headlines

  • In Europe, Ukraine—where cases are declining—extended its lockdown until Aug 31 but said it will soften some of its measures, and France announced that it will lift its night curfew 10 days earlier than planned, given that COVID-19 cases are dropping more quickly than expected.
  • The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said it is conducting enhanced epidemic monitoring surrounding the month-long EURO 2020 soccer tournament. The event was postponed last year and began on Jun 11, with 24 teams playing across 11 host countries. It is expected to draw about 460,000 spectators.
  • The European Union is advising member countries to lift nonessential travel restrictions on people arriving from the United States, according to the Washington Post.
  • In Australia, Sydney reported its first local COVID-19 case in more than a month, according to Reuters. New South Wales officials are investigating the source of the infection in a man in his 60s, who is a driver and occasionally transported overseas airline crews.
  • The global total today reached 176,758,434, with 3,824,921 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard.

DJ-So now yet another variant-this one from Peru-called Lambda...not unexpected...more infectious, more resistent...Why am I not surprised ? Has been causing increase of cases most in Peru since April...See also latest news/new variants and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/peru/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/peru/ on how Peru was in crisis in April...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/917500-canada-s-inflation-rate-rises-to-highest-level-in-a-decade-at-3-6[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/917500-canada-s-inflation-rate-rises-to-highest-level-in-a-decade-at-3-6Canada's inflation rate rises to highest level in a decade, at 3.6%
If price of gasoline is stripped out rate falls to 2.5%, but cost of living still going up at significant pace
CBC News · Posted: Jun 16, 2021 9:03 AM ET | Last Updated: 33 minutes ago

Canada's inflation rate increased to 3.6 per cent in May, the fastest pace in a decade, Statistics Canada says.

The data agency said in a news release Wednesday that the cost of just about everything is going up at a much faster pace than usual, from shelter and vehicles, to food, energy and consumer goods.

The cost of shelter increased by 4.2 per cent in the year up to May, the fastest rise in the cost of putting a roof over one's head since 2008. And the cost of filling a home with furniture and appliances also went up, by 4.4. per cent. That's the fastest pace of an increase for so-called durable goods since 1989.

Furniture prices in particular rose by 9.8 per cent in the past year, their biggest jump since 1982. Last month the government slapped tariffs of up to 300 per cent on some types of upholstered furniture from China and Vietnam.

Gasoline prices have risen by 43 per cent in the past year, a figure that looks especially high because it's being compared to May of last year, when demand and prices for gasoline cratered. But even on a monthly basis, the cost of gasoline went up in May by 3.2 per cent compared to April's level.

Gas isn't the only part of driving that's getting more expensive either, as the price of new cars increased by five per cent in the past year. That's the biggest jump in vehicle prices since 2016, and the biggest reason for it is an ongoing shortage of semiconductors, a global trend that has jacked up the price of anything that uses microchips...

DJ-Parts of increase is based on tariffs, part also can be explained by some prices going down one year ago-decrease in demand due to lockdowns before that month-translating in %-wise increase in inflation one year later...Chinese lower exports due to NPI in Chinese major industrial area's will also increase prices. 

-Video's ;

Prof. Tim Spector-ZOE tracker app. how are vaccines dealing with India variant cases ? [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5v0ic-um7A[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5v0ic-um7A ;

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReDzaHoNwi0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReDzaHoNwi0 Dr. John Campbell Wednesday Update; Also asking the same question;

Professor Sir Andrew Pollard, Oxford Vaccine Group Well at the moment we're not seeing any evidence, that I'm aware of, of any loss of protection over time But we don't know yet whether boosters will be needed or not We also have a virus that's circulating which will cause some mild disease in those who've had two doses, and that will actually boost their immunity as well So we're actually in quite a good place at the moment, we're not seeing any failure over time, waning of that protection I don't think we have the evidence to predict the dates

US Cases and deaths decline Prevention measures or medical countermeasures (MCMs) Demonstrated failure of diagnostics Significantly reduction in vaccine effectiveness High number of vaccine breakthrough cases More severe clinical disease and increased hospitalizations 

G-7’s pledge of a billion doses Dr Tedros This is a big help, but we need more, and we need them faster. Right now, the virus is moving faster than the global distribution of vaccines. 11 billion doses, 70% of people in low-income countries by 2022 

UK Cases will rise Prof Graham Medley London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, disease modelling Government risks are primarily based upon the healthcare, and whether the healthcare can continue to function. 

Could return to seeing hundreds of deaths each day? I think that's quite possible it's not a certainty. There is a lot of uncertainty, but I think that's quite possible 

Over-21s in England Can now book  

It’s incredibly important that staff in care homes are vaccinated. We have got a hugely vulnerable population in our care homes and making sure that staff are vaccinated is a priority.   

Vaccinations for children Professor Calum Semple, (SAGE member) We're talking about vaccinating children here mainly to protect public health and reduce transmission, Teenagers, biologically more like adults (for transmission) But the younger children really are not, they're about a half to a third as likely to acquire the virus.  

Spare vaccines should be sent to countries who do not have enough doses I'm veering on the not vaccinating children 

China vaccine rollout First dose, 44% April, 4.8 million doses per day June, 17.3 million doses per day Yesterday, 19.8 million Total doses, 923 million Beijing and Shanghai, majority fully vaccinated Correct technique in China 

DJ-With increased spread in young age groups-15-20 y/o one should OR vaccinate that age group OR have more restrictions (on travel) for that age group. Not acting in time will see a need for vaccinations AND restrictions...

It is not vaccinating children OR vaccinating vulnarables in countries we keep poor-by now you need to do both ! So increase vaccine-production ! China already has 5 FIVE vaccines-good enough for large scale-high speed-use in China. China is "winning the vaccine war" -may be the only country able to produce enough vaccines high speed to "vaccinate the world"...and after vaccinating China they most likely will be doing that within a few months. 

I would like to have more info on Delta-variant symptoms... a "bad cold"-but manageable or seeing "twice as many hospital cases as the older variants"....? Proberbly also depending on age group, vaccinations etc...

For now I choose to believe fully vaccination in combination with a high number of people being vaccinated (getting close to herd immunity) should offer some protection. But there is NO ROOM AT ALL for again spreading all kinds of variants by international (air)travel...IT IS ESSENTIAL TESTING IS NOT SLOWING DOWN !!! We need better sequencing ! Should not stop NPI...

But we keep repeating earlier mistakes....

-Music; The Three Degrees-Take Good Care Of Yourself april 1975-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4m1tbJnyZI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F4m1tbJnyZI 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 17 2021 at 9:41pm

DJ,

-Yesterday in latest news-new variants-I could include TWO new variants-Lambda from Peru, and Delta+-the India variant spreading most in Europe with some new mutations...Both have to be more infectious and immuno-escape to show up. They both show up in area's where there is supposed to be lots of vaccine/natural immunity-wich the variant has to overcome...so they do...

Here in NL we are speeding up reopening-while some variants also speed up their spread...but in general cases still going down..."so what can go wrong"....UK may face more NPI, Lisbon-were 25% of Portugal population live-will go in lockdown...but that does not stop some other countries "saving the economy"....repeating mistakes with an even worse outcome....

New variants are moving towards becoming resistent-overcoming ANY form of immunity-able to reinfect people, even with vaccinations...

Testing is going down. Under 18 may not be in some variant statistics-"since they do not get severe symptoms"-in many countries vaccination is slowing down the spread-but is not enough to stop it...International airtravel is making matters worse...again.

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ are very far from perfect-sometimes maybe getting close to useless. At least part of the spread is in young age groups that do not get tested..."party people"...in the past also more orthodox religious groups did see (major) spread "under the radar"...a third group are "foreign workers" (with or without papers) living close together in bad housing doing high risk jobs...A limited fourth group is in those that deny there is a pandemic, "natural immunity" protecting us etc....

Some interesting countries to watch are the UK ; reporting over 11,000 new cases-19 deaths. At #9 in list of highest new cases-but expectations were the UK could be in the 20,000 new cases-40 deaths by now...so it is going more slow. Prof. Tim Spector is expecting this "small wave" to go on for a few weeks-to be over (for the UK) second part of July...In trends UK at +34%...#41.

Israel is reporting an increase of +19% #50 in highest % increase trends-with low numbers still; 98 last week-this week 117 cases being reported. Part may be in unvaccinated, part in the 5-10% "imperfect margin" if vaccines offer 90-95% protection...

Portugal is showing an increase of 41%...last week 4,401 cases-this week 6,196 (#37 in trends). Yesterday reporting 1.233 new cases-#43 in highest numbers-list.

Worldwide trend is -5%-slowly moving upwards to the + again. In real numbers Brazil still almost 75,000 new cases, India-a few other Latin American countries in top 5. Russia=#5, Indonesia#6, South Africa #7, US-UK-Iran make the last 3 in this top 10...

Of course you can go for a positive look; Sweden "reporting a decrease of -77%" in the trends list; last week 5,202 cases-this week "only" 1,191-but mainly because Sweden has not been reporting cases for some days...

Numbers on variants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics are problematic-total of wiki Delta variant cases-still in 73 countries would be 36,828 per june 16...with;

The latest available data from the end of May indicates prevalence in the U.S., the Netherlands and Germany was in the 1 % to 10% range. Surveillance data from the U.S. and the Netherlands indicates the Delta variant is growing by about a factor of 2 every weeks with respect to the Alpha variant, so it is expected to become dominant in around July or August in these countries.[99][100][101][102]

as maybe most relevant. [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/  does show 46,890 Delta-variant cases for the UK...proberbly also including the Delta+ variant but NOT the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Kappa_variant also from India...and also growing...

Wiki has also more on the [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_variant but not yet updated (as far as I can see) on the Delta+ variant; [url]https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/delta-variant-of-covid-19-mutates-into-delta-plus-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/83538387.cms[/url] or https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/delta-variant-of-covid-19-mutates-into-delta-plus-all-you-need-to-know/articleshow/83538387.cms has good info on that...(It would be welcome if press did work with Wikipedia or other international non-profit group for better communication on variants...)

DJ-Basicly-YES variants are increasing-a lot of them ! YES-it is very likely there will be SEVERAL !!!! new variants spreading in many area's-simply meaning the virus is dealing with growing natural/vaccine immunity-but NO-we do not have enough sequencing/testing to get a realistic view on that...Basicly we have lost sight on this pandemic...with much to limited and slow sequencing we are "driving in the dark and increasing speed" without any idea of where we are..."new leadership"...

In other news Reuters claiming we did get over the four million Covid deaths-first 2 million did take all of 2020, the next two million only took 5,5 months...with India, Mexico, US (+600,000 deaths), Brazil in highest numbers of deaths-as far as the reported numbers have any meaning...

-Flutrackers latest posts...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest ; For those interested, a summary of Ivermectin data can be found here, including a summary and links to the latest large Meta-Analysis

https://c19early.com - just click on the tab that says 'Ivermectin'. Other repurposed drugs / intervention data summaries can be found under other tabs for those interested.
DJ Discussion on low cost effective treatments-NOT bringing in trillions of profit for Big Pharma mafia share holders keeps going on...Ivermectin very likely to be effective at all stages-but Big Pharma may be in control of the "medical community" and they go for what "is good for shareholders not for patients"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/916069-china-confirmed-community-spread-of-1-617-variant-possible-delta-guangzhou-guangdong-province-may-23-2021?view=stream latest; A 55-year-old man, Zhu Moumou, had visited the hospital twice, but failed to truthfully report and inform the doctor of his travel history within the past 14 days, concealing the fact that he had contact with confirmed cases and the fact that he had been to a high-risk area, and was later diagnosed. The trajectory of its activities has involved hospitals, convenience stores and other public places, causing 167 close contacts and 225 sub-close contacts to be isolated for observation and home isolation.
  The public security organs filed and investigated Zhu XX and detained him for criminal purposes. The judicial organs will prosecute the case in accordance with the law.
  The suspect Zhu Moumou, male, 55 years old, runs a farm in Panyu District, Guangzhou City.

DJ-One person can introduce a virus-start an outbreak...It is good some people are following Chinese news outlets...at least part of the "problem" in the early stages of the pandemic was western media (and intel ?) expecting China to translate all news in English...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917556-concerns-grow-over-risk-of-rare-heart-condition-from-covid-19-vaccine-in-young-men[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917556-concerns-grow-over-risk-of-rare-heart-condition-from-covid-19-vaccine-in-young-men ;Canadian health authorities say they are monitoring reports of heart inflammation following mRNA COVID-19 vaccines, which are produced by Pfizer and Moderna, after U.S. officials reported a higher-than-expected number of cases in those who had received second doses.

Health Canada said a small number of these cases have been reported in Canada, but it is not yet known whether there is any link between them and mRNA vaccines. It added that it encouraged people to get immunized with any of the authorized and available vaccines.

... On Thursday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) presented data that showed heart conditions were rare. But they were more frequent than the two agencies would normally expect among individuals aged 16 to 24. The cases were more common among males, especially after a second dose.

DJ What I do get is that often the inflamation is not a major risk-but still unwelcome...and if there are other problems it can be a risk. (And I am not a doctor/expert-just repeating what I did read/understand...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917554-children-as-young-as-13-reveal-struggles-with-long-covid-%E2%80%98i-used-to-be-an-active-child-now-it-will-drain-me%E2%80%99[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917554-children-as-young-as-13-reveal-struggles-with-long-covid-%E2%80%98i-used-to-be-an-active-child-now-it-will-drain-me%E2%80%99Children as young as 13 have revealed their struggles with Long Covid as they called for better treatment to manage the debilitating condition.

At least one million people have Long Covid in the UK, according to the Office of National Statistics.

And around 7.4 per cent of those cases are among children aged 2-11, with another 8.2 per cent aged from 12 to 16.

DJ-Long Covid is a growing problem. But it is-very likely-not a new problem. Post viral infections chronic health issues often were not taken serious enough...seen as "mental problems"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917552-state-health-officials-track-fast-spreading-delta-variant-of-covid-19-in-wisconsin[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/917552-state-health-officials-track-fast-spreading-delta-variant-of-covid-19-in-wisconsin ; State health officials have identified nearly three dozen cases of a new, fast-spreading variant of COVID-19 in Wisconsin that was first detected in India last year.

The Wisconsin Department of Health Services is tracking the Delta variant, which has been found in 35 positive coronavirus tests since April, according to state data. The Delta variant only constitutes about 6% of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. but could eventually overtake the Alpha variant as the dominant virus in the U.S. and in Wisconsin.

DJ I think some newer variants may even escape some of the testing...we may "go blind" on variants...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917549-cidrap-africa-s-covid-19-surge-picks-up-speed[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917549-cidrap-africa-s-covid-19-surge-picks-up-speedAfrica is in the middle of a full-blown third surge of COVID-19, with cases already near the peak of its first wave, the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) African regional office warned today, as she pressed countries on the continent to step up their public health measures.
In other developments — and with much of the world struggling with scarce vaccine supplies — Germany-based CureVac yesterday reported disappointing efficacy findings for its mRNA COVID vaccine.

Variants only one factor fueling surge

At a briefing today, Matshidiso Moeti, MBBS, who leads the WHO's African regional office, said cases rose last week by 20% in 22 African countries, with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Namibia, and Uganda reporting their highest weekly cases since the pandemic began. In urging countries to scale up their case finding, testing, treatment, and contact tracing, she said, "The sobering trajectory of surging cases should rouse everyone into urgent action. We’ve seen in India and elsewhere just how quickly COVID-19 can rebound and overwhelm health systems."
Factors fueling the outbreak are varied and involve the lack of adherence to public health measures, the onset of cooler weather in southern Africa, and the circulation of more transmissible variants.
Moeti said the Delta (B1617.2) variant has been found in 14 African countries, and the Alpha (B117) and Beta (B1351) variants have been detected in 25 nations.
Though Africa is struggling with scarce vaccine supplies, she said vaccine rollout is picking up speed, with 5 million doses delivered over the past 5 days. However, Moeti added that some countries are struggling to administer the doses they have—23 have given only half of the doses they've received so far, including 4 that are experiencing resurgence.

DJ-Basic testing is already a major problem in most of Africa. Southern Africa is moving towards fall/winter-will also make matters worse...But I (DJ) expect the SA variant may be having some extra mutations-a SA+ variant ? Kinshasa variant by now ? With hardly any sequencing we simply have no idea...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917547-cidrap-youth-delta-variant-behind-uk-covid-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/917547-cidrap-youth-delta-variant-behind-uk-covid-surge ;

Two new studies look at the Delta variant (B1617) behind the UK COVID-19 surge, with the first noting that young people are helping drive the exponential growth of COVID-19 cases in England. The second study describes reduced COVID-19 vaccine and antibody efficacy against the more transmissible variant.

Youth test positivity rate five times higher than seniors'

The first study, published today on the Imperial College London preprint server, involved testing a random sample of people from across England for COVID-19 as part of the ongoing Real-Time Assessment of Community Transmission (React 1) study.
The researchers showed that COVID-19 infections in England surged from May 20 to Jun 7, with a doubling time of 11 days and an estimated R (reproductive) number of 1.44. Doubling time is the number of days before coronavirus cases, hospitalizations, or deaths doubled, and R indicates how many people, on average, catch the virus from an infected person.
In total, 135 of 108,911 swabs tested positive for COVID-19, for a weighted prevalence of 0.15%, up from 0.10% of swabs collected from Apr 15 to May 3. Northwest England had the highest prevalence (0.26%), while the country's southwest region had the lowest (0.05%). Residents of socioeconomically disadvantaged areas were at nearly double the risk of testing positive, compared with those in less-deprived areas.
Young people are behind the surge, with a 5-fold higher rate of COVID-19 test positivity among children 5 to 12 years (0.35% prevalence) and adults 18 to 24 (0.36% prevalence) than in those 65 or older. People younger than 50 were 2.5 times more likely to be infected than older people (prevalence, 0.20% vs 0.08%), although the researchers noted that infections seem to be growing at a comparable rate in both age-groups.
Delta responsible for 90% of COVID cases

In early February, the link between COVID-19 infection rates and hospitalizations started to lessen, apparently due to vaccinations, only to reemerge in late April. When the researchers stratified data by age, however, they found that those 65 and older still had a lower association between infections and hospital admissions.
"We can take a lot of comfort in the fact that there does appear to be very good protection in the older age groups, where virtually everyone has been doubly vaccinated," senior study author Paul Elliott, MBBS, PhD, director of the React program, said in a BMJ press release today.

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Vaccines less able to neutralize Delta

In the second study, published yesterday in Cell, a team led by University of Oxford researchers evaluated whether vaccines, monoclonal antibodies, or antibodies derived from COVID-19 survivors could neutralize the Delta variant's B1617.1 and B1617.2 sublineages.
They exposed the Delta variants to neutralizing antibodies from vaccinated participants, convalescent sera from UK COVID-19 patients from early in the pandemic, and monoclonal antibodies. They also looked at the affinity of the variants' receptor-binding domains for angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE-2), which allows the virus to enter human cells.
The researchers found substantial reductions in the ability of the AstraZeneca/Oxford and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines to inactivate the Delta variant, although the viruses weren't broadly able to escape neutralization.
The ability of the Pfizer vaccine to neutralize the Delta variant dropped 1.34-fold between 4 and 10 weeks after the first dose, at which time the ability was nearly lost. "Recently in the UK some reduction in Pfizer-BioNTech effectiveness has been detected at 10 weeks, presumably as a result of waning immunity, leading to the recommendation that the second vaccine dose interval should be reduced from 12 to 8 weeks in those over age 50," the authors said.
The researchers noted previous studies that found lower vaccine effectiveness against mild to moderate COVID-19 in countries in which Beta was dominant, as well as against the Alpha (B117 variant first seen in England, although protection against severe illness was maintained.

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Continued emergence of new variants

The authors said that the true number of SARS-CoV-2 variants probably has been underestimated and that more variants of concern will continue to emerge.
"Early in the pandemic SARS-CoV-2 was under selective pressure to adapt to its new host, to evade the innate immune system, to efficiently bind to and infect target cells and to transmit to the next host," they wrote. "As the population develops immunity, by either natural infection or vaccination, pressure is mounting to select mutations that allow the virus to more effectively find an infectible host through increased transmissibility, or to evade the acquired immune response and cause reinfection."
The authors called for more epidemiological data on how often breakthrough infections occur after escape mutations and whether they will cause severe disease and hospitalization. "If this escape from the neutralising capacity of vaccines continues with evolution of new variants in vaccinated populations, and leads to a substantial reduction in effectiveness against hospitalisation, there will be a significant impact on attempts to alter the course of the pandemic through immunisation and an urgent need to revise immunogens," they concluded.

DJ-STOP THE SPREAD !!!!!!! New variants get more and more resistent ! With an R0 in the UK of over