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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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Kilt5 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Kilt5 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 17 2021 at 7:00pm

The scenario that concerns me is a variant that is:

A highly infectious

B highly deadly - with a very high Case Fatality Ratio - 60% or more

C highly vaccine resistant

This is actually on the cards and happening as we speak

Then we will have a real pandemic - like 1918

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 17 2021 at 9:07pm

Kilt5-I think you are correct...Maybe just the reminder that pandemic-wise 1918/19-killing 2-5% of global population-was a "mild" pandemic. When you look at other pandemics (but also some sort of plant and animal disease) a much higher percentage of people killed (like CFR=60) is a potential. 

In the UK the health minister himself now-after double AstraZeneca vaccine-testing positive for Covid with mild symptoms. In Israel daily new cases +1,000...with 56% of the population fully vaccinated-and a high level of supposed natural immunity after infection. PM Bennet admits vaccine protection is less then hoped for...

In my-non expert-view UK, NL reopening will result in an explosion of new cases-maybe often mild, maybe first hospitals can deal with it...lot of asymptomatic spread...But due to high number of cases also a high number of mutations interacting with vaccine (and natural) immunity...so resulting in lots of new variants....

-Numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ with limited numbers-weekend-the UK made it to the top for new cases ! Almost 55,000 ! "Just" 41 deaths...Indonesia is doing all it can to get numbers down-now #2 in cases; 50,000+ and 1,092 deaths...NL going for a top position in cases as well-with again over 11,000 new cases (and limited testing...).

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Global cases +15%, deaths +0,2% because deaths are decreasing in South America and India....UK deaths +48%, US +13%, NL +11%...the "top 3 best prepared for a pandemic countries in 2019" after 1,5 years in a pandemic...results are not "as expected"....

(I may continue later on...with a part 2)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 17 2021 at 11:20pm

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

CRS,DrPH, thank you for asking, 

High river water will reach my area tomorrow evening. Most likely it will stay some 2 metres below levels we do see from time to time in winter. 

Risks for NL, Germany, Belgium ;

-High water level 24/36 hours-duration can weaken dykes & dams

-Unexpected events-tributary water flows causing main rivers to rise further...

For that matter the border area makes matters more complex. Water protection in part is a national issue-allthough a lot of info/data is shared and all three countries have very good relations...

Language may complicate matters more-floods are in French speaking part of Belgium, Dutch NL/ German speaking Germany...so some of the communications may end up in English I think...

Another risk may be related to the borders...if a dyke/dam breaks in Germany the water could move into NL or Belgium (ot the other way round...)...Also (rail)road links may still get damaged the coming days. 

A major NL-German rail/road/gas-transport line follows the Rhine...also shipping is effected. So logistics may see some influences. But other (rail)roads can take extra transports...it may take a bit more time...

Since the "real time" R0 in NL may be above 3 (!!!!!) by now (most in the cities) the pandemic in this area will get worse. 

The official number of deaths in Germany/Belgium is over 150. With many more missing it is very likely to end up at 500+...in best prepared countries with fast help...Thousends of houses lost, infrastructure damage in the tens of billions...

And not over yet...

  My lineage is part Dutch, part German, part Slovak, so I feel this ache for so many fellow humans in their suffering.  Be safe, friend.

CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 18 2021 at 3:09am

Some points;

-from the NW Europe floods one thing to "learn" could be to also better prepare for "worst case" scenario's. There was a lot of rain expected in the flooded area...maybe the real amount of rain itself was not that much more then they may have seen in the past. A difference may have been that the rain fell in a shorter amount of time-causing much stronger floods..

Also rains stayed over an area longer-giving this kind of disaster-outcome. 

-Communications showed to be another problem. The floods came "high speed". People believed there was time to get a car to higher grounds, get some goods out of the basement...and got stuck, died that way. In some area's waterlevel went up several meters within 5 minutes...

A cubic meter of water (1 meter by 1 meter by 1 meter) =1,000 kilogram ! When it is moving even firetrucks can not deal with that kind of pressure....After the floods in some area's there are no roads left...you need helicopters to provide help and evacuate people...In other area's you need army tanks, bulldozers, heavy "stuff" to be able to do something...

The number of deaths is now around 200 people...it will go up since hundreds still are missing....

-In this pandemic you also need to have REALISTIC scenario's...not wishfull thinking if you want to deal with this pandemic. Also communications is essential. Both have become a "bad joke" in many places...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAzWSkgo7B0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAzWSkgo7B0  (Dr. Deepti Gurdansany on herd immunty through infection-and "news manipulation" ) and [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4imfAwdFMQ&t=807s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a4imfAwdFMQ&t=807s  (Citizens TV-International summit of healthexperts on UK reopening per july 19).

The UK reopening is based on wishfull thinking-not realism...Here in NL-just like in the UK-hospital/ICU cases and deaths are moving upward...We have seen the "herd immunity" strategy not working in Sweden, Brasil...so why repeat that when we now also have lots of potential variants ? 

The UK, NL governments are NOT stupid-so the other option is "evil" ? 

-Flutrackers;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/919664-patents-on-the-coronavirus-and-sars[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/919664-patents-on-the-coronavirus-and-sarsSo obviously from the standpoint of this presentation, as you know we have reviewed the over 4,000 patents that have been issued around SARS coronavirus and we have done a very comprehensive review of the financing of all of the manipulations of coronavirus which t gave rise to SARS as a subclade of the Beta coronavirus family. So what I wanted to do was give you a quick overview timeline..... "

DJ-How much money could you have made by the "right" investments in Big Pharma, PPE, hospitals, ambulances...? Should you make profits out of a pandemic ? Lots of "politicians" think that is okay...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919654-vaccinated-u-k-health-secretary-tests-positive-for-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919654-vaccinated-u-k-health-secretary-tests-positive-for-covid-19  and [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-june-24[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-june-24 latest ; cases up +40,6%, deaths +47,9%, hospital +39,4% only thing going down is testing -1,8% ...

Children unvaccinated will often get symptoms-with the Delta variant-India/Indonesia is finding out the hard way...But also in Israel an increasing number of vaccinated people get ill ! The UK health secretary was fully vaccinated ! 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream  latest ; A Baton Rouge infectious disease specialist gave a stark account Friday of the dangers of the coronavirus delta variant circulating through Louisiana, saying that it's causing children to lose their parents, pregnant women to lose their babies and that choosing vaccination is the only option to avoid more deaths.
...
"I want to be clear after seeing what I've seen the past two weeks," O'Neal said. "We only have two choices: we are either going to get vaccinated and end the pandemic. Or we are going to accept death. A lot of it, this surge, and another surge, and possibly another variant."

DJ-Allthough vaccines have there limits-you still need to limit spread-vaccines did save (millions of) lives ! Vaccines can give a false sense of security-undoing in part the gain one did get from vaccinations-still there is a "netto gain" by vaccinations...

If you live in New Zealand you may have a choice...but even in Australia it may be hard to contain the Delta variant...Same link;

Roadmap modelling
...
8. All modelled scenarios show a period of extremely high prevalence of infection lasting until at least the end of August. There is high uncertainty around both the scale of the peak in prevalence and in the number of confirmed cases that this would correspond to. SAGE also notes that the level of testing may become limited by uptake or capacity.

9. There are four major risks associated with high numbers of infections. These are an increase in hospitalisations and deaths, more ‘Long-COVID’; workforce absences (including in the NHS); and the increased risk of new variants emerging. The combination of high prevalence and high levels of vaccination creates the conditions in which an immune escape variant is most likely to emerge. The likelihood of this happening is unknown, but such a variant would present a significant risk both in the UK and internationally.
...
https://www.gov.uk/government/public...se-7-july-2021

DJ-There are better options ! Sticking to NPI, masks, work/study from home...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919639-vaccinated-visitors-from-u-s-unlikely-to-spread-virus-experts-say[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/canada/canada-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919639-vaccinated-visitors-from-u-s-unlikely-to-spread-virus-experts-say ; Prime Minister Justin Trudeau indicated Thursday that Canada could reopen the border to fully vaccinated Americans by mid-August, with immunized travellers from across the globe following suit by early September.

Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti, an infectious disease specialist in Mississauga, Ont., said it's the next logical step in reopening plans, and would mark a shift from efforts to eliminate risk to those that mitigate it.

"The risk won't be zero ... (but) we have to start making these adjustments to move back to normal," he said. "We can't stay in suspended animation with our nearest neighbour."...

DJ-We live in a far from perfect world...and there are several roads possible. I would like to see a lot less air travel, less mobility-not only for disease spread, also for the climate...In my idea the "old normal" caused the problem...we should not return to it...But a "new normal" would need politics, companies, science-and also us as consumers-to make other choices. 

Consumers allready make changes by eating more vega-"meat-replacements", use bikes more...travel less long distance...I do not need a holliday in Hawaii, or even Spain...but if people want to visit family living "long distance" there should stay room for that...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYmW-FqSQBE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYmW-FqSQBE 

US-vaccine escape...

DJ Comments may be better then the video...What is "good info"? If an expert makes an incorrect claim it still is "good info" ? Why is there that limited info on Ivermectin ? Why many people feel vaccines are being pushed, exaggerated expectations ? 

Lots of goverments and experts could learn from communication-experts ! 

No doubt Dr.J.C. soon will claim he was against UK reopenings...In the past he often did claim to have been correct-while in fact he often was wrong ! Cases with symptoms going up in the UK-even if people are vaccinated...

-Again we live in a far from perfect world. We may have accept "some bad news"...Around 2 million people per year die in car accidents worldwide. I (DJ) find that extreme...Airpolution may kill even a lot more-politics claim to "do something on that" resulting sometimes in making matters even worse...

Today there are also floods in the south of Germany, Austria...so far 2 deaths there. But these floods may be "more normal"...

-Music ; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkytJLoxGmQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkytJLoxGmQ Listen To The Music-1975-Doobie Brothers (in TopPop NL-TV...)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 18 2021 at 9:59pm

CRS,DrPH-knowing your background gives sense of identity....However where you "came from" in many ways may "picture" the image of the world, that "sense of identity" may also be in the way of a wider view. It is good to be aware of that...

"We" have a picture of ourselves, what we are allowed to do to this planet, fellow humans is based on how we see ourselves. 

"The western capitalist model" now dominant around the globe-is that destructive it is "a dead end road" and we may be catching some glimpses of "the end of the road"...

I did read an article on how "liberal NL party in 2020" is defending viewpoints even extreme right wing parties would find extreme 40 years ago...Every crisis pushing for more extremism...basically "denialism" in my view. Climate change, refugees, we are not solving those crisis, pushing MORE greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere, letting more refugees-from wars and inequality we keep going-die in a dessert or sea...

In this pandemic NL, UK go-again-for "herd immunity" somehow expecting a miracle...while the only realistic outcome will ba massive numbers of deaths, chronic illness...

There are some protests [url]https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2FZVXZkfDencs6KsYVpe_g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2FZVXZkfDencs6KsYVpe_g  and [url]https://the-citizens.com/[/url] or https://the-citizens.com/ ...

What is the sense of talking sense to people with no sense....Yes there will be legal battles-but by then the damage is done...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ . The UK again at #1 for new cases. Yesterday almost 55,000 cases, today 48,000 cases reported...and he ! look the numbers are dropping ! Deaths also going down from 41 to 25...We still have snow-so there is no climate change...

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table also global cases may be going up +15%, deaths only +0,1% worldwide...what is the problem ?

UK cases go up 44%, deaths +39%...Israel cases +77%, deaths +10%...But yes-both the UK and Israel do not see massive numbers of people dying...yet !

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/govt-said-to-weigh-shuttering-airport-for-non-essential-travel-amid-virus-surge/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/govt-said-to-weigh-shuttering-airport-for-non-essential-travel-amid-virus-surge/

At least 10% of COVID infections in recent weeks are from returnees; officials urgently looking to impose restrictions on flights; 22,000 depart Ben Gurion on Sunday

DJ Why are we not stopping international air travel untill this pandemic is over ? Answer-economics go before public health...Who decided that ?  Answer-governments claiming to work in your interests...but that are killing you in so many ways...Why do we accept this ? Answer-because we have no longer a link between "freedom" and "responsibility"...basically "we do not care"...

If I can have my holliday, eat meat, drive my car...let others pay the real bill-I pay taxes so "shut up" !

The end of the road is over 100,000 UK infections per day-soon resulting in high numbers of deaths per day, vaccines becoming not protective...(there is a downward trend in vaccine protection-variants mutate around immunity). 

The end of the road is extreme heat, wildfires in the US, Russia...extreme rains in Europe, cyclones in East-Asia...

And we are increasing speed-do not know how to use the brakes...

-Some good links;

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing 

[url]https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-18/freedom-day-looms-in-england-despite-coronavirus-surge/100295326[/url] or https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-18/freedom-day-looms-in-england-despite-coronavirus-surge/100295326

Those in Britain only need to look across the North Sea to see what has happened in the Netherlands over the past three weeks and the devastating effects of reopening normal life too quickly – which saw infections rise more than 500 per cent in just one week.

'You can expect a beautiful summer'

In mid-June, COVID-19 infections in the Netherlands had dropped to their lowest levels in nine months, 13 million vaccinations had been administered to the population of 17.5 million people, and bars and restaurants were open.

Dutch caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced that by the end of the month face masks would no longer be required.

DJ-"Freedom" whatever the costs...ignoring science...P(roble)M rutte pushing for reopening as an ideology...Trump with a friendly smile...much more deadly...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-june-24?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-june-24?view=stream latest; "good news for stupid people" hospital cases AND deaths now going up +39,4% ...cases up 43,3%, testing DOWN AGAIN !!! -1,8%...Maybe BoJo&Co also go for "no testing=no cases" strategy ? 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/901004-ivermectin-a-useful-treatment-for-covid-19-coronavirus-some-discussion-and-studies?view=stream latest activities-ongoing discussion. DJ-With this pandemic very likely getting out of control we may need to fall back on all means that may have some use...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919681-uk-pm-johnson-reverses-plan-to-skip-quarantine-after-covid-exposure[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919681-uk-pm-johnson-reverses-plan-to-skip-quarantine-after-covid-exposureBritish Prime Minister Boris Johnson and finance minister Rishi Sunak will both self-isolate in line with national guidance, abandoning heavily criticised plans to take part in a pilot scheme that would have allowed them to continue working.

... Almost all remaining restrictions in England will be lifted on Monday despite a surge in infections

Cases are rising by more than 50,000 a day and hundreds of thousands of Britons are being asked to self isolate for 10 days, causing havoc for employers and parents, prompting train cancellations and forcing some businesses to close their doors.

DJ An elite "above any law" ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream ; The Delta coronavirus variant that has rapidly become dominant across much of the world is exacting a grim toll on dozens of developing countries, where vaccination levels are insufficient to prevent a surge in cases from becoming a wave of deaths. As economies in Europe and the US that have successfully weakened the link between infections and deaths have started to reopen, poorer countries with low vaccination rates are in some cases entering their worst phase of the pandemic. 

“The world thinks this epidemic is over,” said Fatima Hassan, founder of South Africa’s Health Justice Initiative. “But we still don’t have enough vaccine supplies in the system despite the global realisation that the Delta variant is so devastating.” The Delta variant first identified in India accounts for 95 per cent of cases in South Africa where the genetic code has been sequenced. ...

-

Israeli officials are warning that the Pfizer vaccine is “significantly less” effective against the Delta variant of the coronavirus, the strain first seen in India that now accounts for 31 percent of cases in the US.

“We do not know exactly to what degree the vaccine helps, but it is significantly less,” said Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

The shot is still keeping people from getting seriously ill in Israel, where over 60 percent of the population has received a jab. Just 1.6 percent have become critically ill, compared with 4 percent in the pre-vax wave of cases.

DJ In embedded "news" they will be claiming +90% protection while that number is lab-based...In reality protection is decreasing..in a pandemic "every thing is moving"-a complex system...If vaccines only offer 60% protection and you have 60% of population fully vaccinated-per 1, 000 people -60% vaccinated enough=600 people---if they have 60% protection per 1,000 people 360 are protected. 

So 640 people still can-and very likely will-get variants like the Delta/India one when you reopen...And since the "60% fully vaccinated" often is only the over 18 y/o age group even 36% "herd protection" is optimistic...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/919679-china-s-first-human-infection-case-with-monkey-b-virus-dies-report[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/919679-china-s-first-human-infection-case-with-monkey-b-virus-dies-report ; A Beijing-based veterinarian who was confirmed as China's first human infection case with Monkey B virus (BV) has died, amid rising concerns, the official media reported.

The 53-year-old male vet, who worked for an institution researching on non-human primates, showed early-onset symptoms of nausea and vomiting, a month after he dissected two dead monkeys in early March, the state-run Global Times reported on Saturday, citing English Platform of Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

... Researchers had collected the cerebrospinal fluid of the veterinarian in April and identified him as positive for BV, yet samples of his close contacts suggested negative results for the virus.

DJ Other pandemics may be just around the corner...One basic step-STOP THE SPREAD-seems to be impossible during this pandemic-we made this pandemic happen...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zOFmA8wO1I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zOFmA8wO1I Dr. John Campbell talking to Dr. Wefafa in Uganda. It is very welcome Dr. J.C. has contacts all over the globe...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKphl9U9BJU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKphl9U9BJU ZOE-Prof. Tim Spector; vaccinations, long covid and transmissibility...

-Vaccination decreases risk of getting infected-and with that also decreasing risks for symptoms and long covid if you-after vaccination-do get infected. DJ-It is good to collect statistics on that-but also-those statistics look back in time ! Monitoring and testing is needed to keep an eye on how symptoms develop over time...Vaccine protection is eroding...for some age groups/gender related the patterns may be different. 

When you look at ME-CFS cases 90% are women. Auto-immune disease is seen much more in women...men die more often...In my (very limited-non expert) view vaccination can buy time. But yes-vaccination IS a medical intervention. We may not get all the complications vaccination itself may give. 

In part because complications may be hard to link to the vaccines, also longer term complications may still have to show up. 

Prof. Tim Spector is also honest on how well the used vaccines work in people with immuno-disorders/medication for auto-immune issues...We still need more data-but vaccines are likely offering protection-in combination with distancing, masks etc...

DJ-There are claims vaccines did offer 75% protection against spreading if you get infected (and asymptomatic often). That % may go down in time...vaccine-selection may create mutations/variants that do know how to spread even in vaccinated hosts...

Again a major problem is in the numbers. "Freedom Day" may result in the UK over 100,000 new-tested-cases per day. Real number even higher..spreading like wild-fire in a population that has not enough vaccine protection-but still a high level of vaccinations...It is begging for more resistent variants...

-Music; Good Vibrations-Beach Boys-1966 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apBWI6xrbLY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=apBWI6xrbLY 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 19 2021 at 9:55pm

DJ,

In Brazil bolsonaro calls himself a "fascist"...(put in power by the US/CIA). Fascism: Fascism (/ˈfæʃɪzəm/) is a form of far-rightauthoritarian ultranationalism[1][2] characterized by dictatorial power, forcible suppression of opposition, and strong regimentation of society and of the economy

DJ (wiki definition)-"regimentation" would translate to "uniform approach"....Are US republicans, UK conservatives, NL "liberal-conservatives" fascists-by-action ? Is this an important question ? 

Here in NL the "Outbreak Management Team" seems to be told by the government (P(roble)M rutte) "what advise they can give"...The health experts are being told to follow government ideology....(if members do not like that they are being replaced, may forget about their carreers...). Economic "freedom" goes above public health all during this pandemic...

Political science work with "lists" on where to put views/discussions/idea's...In NL the "liberal" vvd is denying climate crisis, healthcrisis, inequality as a serious problem. In the US, UK we see the same kind of "denial-politics"...

This may result in "less testing is less cases"; "there is no need for testing because we have to live with the virus"...

Maybe the question if some US states, UK, NL "politics" should be labelled "fascist" or "extreme right wing" is a "word game"...But "we", the general public have not to expect anything usefull from these kind of "leaders"..In Brazil bolsonaro is pushing for "herd immunity" all of this pandemic-and of course it is only making matters worse...

"Freedom" for the big companies is the goal-even with dead bodies piling up...Most of the suffering is in the poor, non-white-skin, underclass..."sub-human" to use the nazi-term...On the other side there is a political elite-with political puppets-thinking of themselves as "superior", going for private spaceflights during a pandemic...

-Here in NL "cases have been going down-proving the succes of the government" -well more the "weekend effect and less testing"...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ . UK cases under 40,000 on "freedom day", NL cases under 10,000...hail to our leaders ! Hardly any deaths-so lets move on...!

More realistic (so less welcome..."disinformation" ?) in the trends; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ;

UK cases +42%, deaths +48%...NL cases +53%, deaths +33%...what a "negative approach !"...an insult to "our leaders". Embedded press may go for "more positive news" , economy picking up, nice summer weather...and yes "olympics"....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GenocideGenocide is the intentional action to destroy a people—usually defined as an ethnicnationalracial, or religious group—in whole or in part 

DJ This pandemic is bad. But it is much worse for people working in the day to have food in the evening...People who have to do the low-income/high risk daily jobs...It is much worse for people with allready existing health risks...

NOT stopping variants exploding is killing them. The real number of people killed in this pandemic proberbly over 10 million-if not allready in the tens of millions...

If you do not test them you do not have to count them...People in Dutch care centers were not included in Covid-statistics...old age/vulnarable health considered the main reason of death...

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing is among those using not yet "embedded" twitter...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embedded_journalism[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embedded_journalism ; The practice has been criticized as being part of a propaganda campaign whereby embedded journalists accompanied the invading forces as cheerleaders and media relations representatives

So where does this bring us in this pandemic ? "Our" US,UK,NL governments are not willing to deal with yet another crisis they caused...just like climate-collapse a lot of talk..."we have to accept the challenge" etc...no serious action..summer/vaccines will save us...Most other countries are doing their best to "fight" this pandemic with vaccines and NPI...

And of course if you read this, information, communication, self protection is what internet-still-can offer....

Global cases +16%, deaths +0,6%...In Reuters-statistics Europe allready went over 50 million cases, worldometers may end up today with that number...(for what it is worth...). Europe cases +40%, deaths +4%...(mostly in the unvaccinated...yes the younger people-under 30-did often not even had a chance to get vaccinated-clubs reopening, "criminal leaders" "dancing with Janssen"...criminal stupidity...there WILL be legal steps !!!)

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/919801-climate-change-glacial-melt-in-switzerland-has-created-1-000-new-lakes[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/global-climate-change/919801-climate-change-glacial-melt-in-switzerland-has-created-1-000-new-lakes ; Climate change has dramatically altered the Swiss Alp landscape -- at a quicker pace than expected -- as melting glaciers have created more than 1,000 new lakes across in the mountains, a study published Monday showed.

The inventory of Swiss Glacial lakes showed that almost 1,200 new lakes have formed in formerly glaciated regions of the Swiss Alps since the end of the Little Ice Age around 1850. Around 1,000 of them still exist today, according to the study published by the Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag).

That is far more than the few hundreds the researchers had expected to find at the beginning of the project.

DJ; "New thinking" -what a welcome news for tourism ! Global warming means less costs for heating-up-the-house in winter ! Shorter shipping routes via Siberia ! We love global heating ! A boost for Siberian agri-culture ! (This news was brought to you by fossil fuel/aircraft/car lobby groups...we pay your governments...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919267-indonesia-reports-record-covid-19-cases-orders-oxygen-supplies-hospitals-full-speculation-that-official-death-numbers-are-undercounted-us-issues-level-4-travel-warning-do-not-travel-july-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919267-indonesia-reports-record-covid-19-cases-orders-oxygen-supplies-hospitals-full-speculation-that-official-death-numbers-are-undercounted-us-issues-level-4-travel-warning-do-not-travel-july-19-2021 latest; 

Key Information for Travelers to Indonesia

  • Avoid travel to Indonesia.
  • If you must travel to Indonesia, make sure you are fully vaccinated before travel.
  • Because of the current situation in Indonesia, even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants.
  • See recommendations for fully vaccinated travelers.
  • See recommendations for unvaccinated travelers.
  • Travelers should follow recommendations or requirements in Indonesia, including wearing a mask and staying 6 feet apart from others.
  • Quick guide for travelers.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices...irus-indonesia

DJ-Indonesia is on its way towards the India-scenario; massive number of cases, hospitals left out of capacity...Limited vaccine protection. The CDC admitting fully vaccinated people "at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants"...

Indonesia may be dealing with more then the Delta variant ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Indonesia[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Indonesia ; As of 18 July 2021, Indonesia has reported 2,877,476 cases, the highest in Southeast Asia, ahead of the Philippines. With 73,582 deaths, Indonesia ranks third in Asia and 16th in the world.[5] Review of data, however, indicated that the number of deaths may be much higher than what has been reported as those who died with acute COVID-19 symptoms but had not been confirmed or tested were not counted in the official death figure.

-

Failure to detect the virus[edit]

Health experts were concerned early on that the country was failing to identify the transmission of the virus.[185] Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health, "analysed air traffic out of the Chinese city at the centre of the outbreak in China and suggested in a report ... that Indonesia might have missed cases" of COVID-19.[186] Western diplomats[187][188] as well as local[185][189] and international[190][191] news outlets postulated that the lack of cases within Indonesia result from inadequate testing and under reporting, as opposed to sheer luck and divine intervention.[192][193]

On 22 March, a research paper suggested that the official number of infections may only reflect 2% of the real COVID-19 infections in Indonesia.[194][195] According to The Jakarta Post on 5 April 2020, the central government has only conducted a daily average of 240 PCR tests since 2 March.

DJ Proberbly a mix of poverty for most (with a rich elite avoiding tax etc...), "religion", lack of doctors/science/testing Indonesia may see several variants...If the close to 3 million of official cases only is 2% of the real number of cases Indonesia may be at 140+ million cases by now-on a population of 276,5 million ? Proberbly also reinfections ? "Natural herd immunity phantasy" like in Manaus-Brazil/P1 outbreak "a bad-sad-joke"....Related;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/919780-46-yr-old-man-said-his-antibodies-were-high-after-natural-covid-infection-but-were-just-barely-positive-after-vaccination[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/919780-46-yr-old-man-said-his-antibodies-were-high-after-natural-covid-infection-but-were-just-barely-positive-after-vaccination ; DJ One of the many lies criminals-in-charge are pushing is on "vaccination safety"...Vaccinations WILL increase asymptomatic spread. Vaccines may be limited in the protection they can offer...with new variants, decrease of immunity after 6/12 months...reopening global travel for fully vaccinated is an insane idea...NOT in the interest of global public health but for airlines, fossil fuel industry, tourism...and they pay our "leaders"...Every $,€ counts ! We are a democrazy !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/919797-dutch-authorities-defend-digital-covid-19-testing-system-despite-security-breach[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/919797-dutch-authorities-defend-digital-covid-19-testing-system-despite-security-breach ; Authorities in the Netherlands have defended the country's digital COVID-19 testing system after a "serious" security flaw was unveiled.

An investigation by RTL Nieuws found a major leak on the website of Testcoronanu, a Dutch company linked on the government website.

The probe found that any online user could access Testcoronanu's records and create fake negative test certificates in the Dutch CoronaCheck app.

Users could edit two lines of coding to automatically create a valid negative COVID-19 certificate, it said.

RTL Nieuws also found that the leak resulted in the personal information of more than 60,000 citizens -- who had taken a coronavirus test with the company -- being compromised.

DJ-I am glad to see more attention for the NL disaster...Our junta did put over a billion in "testing-for-entry"scams...Proberbly the most corrupt, criminal bunch since 1940-45 nazi-occupation...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919788-cidrap-rocky-covid-19-path-in-uk-as-it-eases-final-restrictions[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919788-cidrap-rocky-covid-19-path-in-uk-as-it-eases-final-restrictions an overview...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919785-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-up-140-in-past-2-weeks[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919785-cidrap-us-covid-19-cases-up-140-in-past-2-weeks ; Over the weekend, Facebook's vice president of integrity, Guy Rosen, addressed President Joe Biden's comment that social media platforms were "killing people" by spreading COVID vaccine misinformation. Included in his response were data highlighting that vaccine hesitancy among US Facebook users has declined by 50%, CNBC reports.


Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, also commented on vaccine misinformation, telling CNN, "We probably would still have polio in this country if we had the kind of false information that's being spread now."

DJ Freedom of expression can cause freedom to say stupid things...(like this garbage [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/study-pfizer-vaccine-causes-catastrophic-damage-to-every-system-of-your-body[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/study-pfizer-vaccine-causes-catastrophic-damage-to-every-system-of-your-body-full of lies/bad info !)...vaccine-religion on the other side is also not helping...New Zealand is doing a very good job-so far-in keeping the virus out. Rest of the world has to go for plan-B...vaccines...New Zealand is succesfull in plan A-no virus...I hope they can keep doing that...Worldometer-trends show New Zealand cases +390%-last week 10-this week 49, but this may indicate stopping the virus at points of entry is working in New Zealand...

Australia is showing that once the Delta variant is spreading it is a hell of a job to get it under control. Australia reporting 793 new cases, 4 deaths last week-they did so well keeping the pandemic out for months...Now also South Australia in lock down...but at least still trying to stop it !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917780-the-books-are-already-burning[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/917780-the-books-are-already-burningFear of ostracism is rational. But we are now living in a world in which evolutionary biologists are threatened with losing their platforms for engaging in debate about the source and treatment of a deadly virus; in which prize-winning composers have been professionally ruined for saying arson is bad; in which authors are editing already-published books to placate online mobs. That should scare us far more than losing friends or status.

DJ-If you can not control the crisis-control the news...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/919779-delta-covid-surge-fuels-renewed-calls-for-mask-mandates-in-nyc-elsewhere[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/919779-delta-covid-surge-fuels-renewed-calls-for-mask-mandates-in-nyc-elsewhere DJ-Like in Germany (a Federal Republic) in the US lots of decissions made on more local levels...lifting mask wearing in the US was a bad choice ! Here in NL our junta has lifted mandatory-masks-leaving it up to hospitals, GP's, local levels to take that responsibility...(so to claim local levels/citizens failed not the junta...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919763-delta-variant-accounts-for-80-per-cent-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-india[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919763-delta-variant-accounts-for-80-per-cent-of-new-covid-19-cases-in-india ; Delta variant accounts for 80 per cent of new COVID-19 cases in India
Government expert panel chief says current vaccines effective against Delta variant
Published: July 19, 2021 18:37 PTI

-

The Delta Plus variant -AY.1 and AY.2 - has so far been detected in 55-60 cases across 11 states, including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Madhya Pradesh and is still being studied for its transmissibility, virulence, and vaccine escape characteristics, Dr Arora said, according to a Union Health Ministry statement.

The Delta variant has mutations in its spike protein, which helps it bind to the ACE2 receptors present on the surface of the cells more firmly, making it more transmissible and capable of evading the body’s immunity, Dr Arora said.

DJ-Did I miss something here ? Is this the Delta+ variant ? Yes it is ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant

Delta with K417N corresponds to lineages AY.1 and AY.2[36] and has been nicknamed "Delta plus" or "Nepal variant". It has the K417N mutation[37] which is also present in the Beta variant.[38] The exchange at position 417 is a lysine-to-asparagine substitution.[39]

As of 15 July 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for approximately 21% of cases in the United States.[40]

DJ So Delta+ is AY.1 and AY.2...but US is seeing an increase of AY.3....[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?loc=USA&pango=AY.3&selected=USA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?loc=USA&pango=AY.3&selected=USA  link... DJ-There should be info on that sub-variant somewhere...Translation=AY.3 is Delta+=spreading in the US ? Most in Mississippi/Missouri.

[url]https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid19-delta-variant-sub-lineages-ay-1-ay-2-unlikely-to-be-more-transmissible-than-delta-says-insacog-11626276355015.html[/url] or https://www.livemint.com/news/india/covid19-delta-variant-sub-lineages-ay-1-ay-2-unlikely-to-be-more-transmissible-than-delta-says-insacog-11626276355015.html ; INSACOG also said that AY.3 has been identified as a new sub-lineage of Delta and it is defined by 'ORF1a:I3731V common AY.1 mutations except for S:417'.

It is primarily seen in America with a single reclassified case in the UK and India. There are no known significant properties of this mutation but since it is a Delta VOC sub-lineage, INSACOG will continue to monitor it, a recent bulletin stated.

"It is likely that neither AY.1 nor AY.2 is more transmissible than Delta. They also continue to be below 1% in available sequences from June in India," the INSACOG said.

DJ "likely not more transmissible" may not be supported by any data...."wishfull pseudo-science"...if you do not know it do not say it !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/919735-cell-rep-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-617-is-resistant-to-bamlanivimab-and-evades-antibodies-induced-by-infection-and-vaccination[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/919735-cell-rep-sars-cov-2-variant-b-1-617-is-resistant-to-bamlanivimab-and-evades-antibodies-induced-by-infection-and-vaccination ; Therefore, we analyze whether B.1.617 is more adept in entering cells and/or evades antibody responses. B.1.617 enters two of eight cell lines tested with roughly 50% increased efficiency and is equally inhibited by two entry inhibitors. In contrast, B.1.617 is resistant against bamlanivimab, an antibody used for COVID-19 treatment. B.1.617 evades antibodies induced by infection or vaccination, although less so than the B.1.351 variant. Collectively, our study reveals that antibody evasion of B.1.617 may contribute to the rapid spread of this variant.

DJ "no more severe symptoms" is also "no-news non-sense",,,if you can less treat a variant dealing with cases gets more complex. If a variant spreads high speed-able to infect others just 30 hours after infecting a peron-hospital cases may become that much hospitals run out of capacity-resulting in much worse cases/deaths...

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP8gsgTFPVc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TP8gsgTFPVc  Monday Update...

UK reopens, it is going to be a difficult summer 

Neil Ferguson, (SAGE member) England and Scotland have eases restrictions 

Almost all legal restrictions on social contact end in England 

Almost certain to reach 100,000 cases per day 1,000 hospital admissions per day 

Maintaining this level could be described as success 

Possible to reach 200,000 cases per day 2,000 hospital admissions per day 

This would cause major disruption to the NHS 

Much less certain to predict 

May be a need to slow the spread to some extent If hospital admissions were to reach 2,000 or 3,000 per day 

Best projections Peak, between August and mid-September It will take 3 weeks to know effects of easing 

-

Long Covid Another 500,000mpeople could get long Covid

DJ Hospitals have been in crisis mode for over a year...why NOT wait till at least all 12 y/o had a chance to get vaccinated...this terrible choice will result in thousends of long covid cases per day ! It will result in tens of thousends extra UK deaths...

Dr.J.C. defends this crime with; 

I think case numbers are likely to be declining at least by late September, even in the the worst-case scenario Going into the winter, I think we will have quite a high degree of immunity against Covid, the real concerns are a resurgence of influenza, because we haven't had any influenza for 18 months Flu could be, frankly, almost as damaging both for health and the health system, by December or January, as Covid has been this year

In my opinion reopening with Delta-variant (variants...) still exploding and many cases in unvaccinated population is mass murder...Lots of people stop using the apps-so they do not find out they have been in contact with an infected person...

When you see how and when new variants show up Dr.J.C.'s non-sense on "herd immunity" is ignoring science...

Music for a while-Purcell-The King Singers [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYBliPhLAE0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZYBliPhLAE0  1679 [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_for_a_While[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Music_for_a_While (by the way-the clip is more recent...)


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2021 at 9:42pm

DJ, 

Last evening I watched Dr. John Campbell latest video ([url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxyjyBu9l-E&t=392s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxyjyBu9l-E&t=392s ). A lot of good info mixed with blatant lies. There IS a link between UK cases and an increase in hospital cases/deaths...that link is NOT broken ! Dr.J.C. may be-not knowing ?-pushing some of his dogma's/political views as "science/facts"...I hate that !

Good info was why testing in the US is that limited ? Why vaccines are decreasing high speed fast in the US ? Answer-communications !

Again very basic ! Fire triangle=heat-fuel-oxygen...if you take one of the three away there is no fire. Pandemic triangle=disease-spread-hosts. The idea was vaccines would protect hosts from catching the variants-and leaky vaccines do not do enough of that job ! You can compensate for that with extra restrictions but "we are opening up". In that way more then waste the gains made by (limited) vaccinations...

The "disease" part is getting worse-much higher viral load-resulting in much more disease ! Because a small viral load infection gives much less illness then a high viral load...is that so hard to understand ? 

Is it hard to understand virus spread in vaccinated-causing an increase of asymptomatic cases-may be harder to detect by testing when you only test people with symptoms ? 

The level of spread via vaccinated is increasing. First of all because there are more vaccinated hosts. Second variants get better-mutate around-immunization...

The way we now deal with this pandemic is like ventilating a fire...making matters much worse ! 

Disease-getting worse via variants-developing fast to evade immunity

Spread-getting much worse by insane reopenings (because "economy"...insane ! This route is destroying the economy !)

Hosts-Vaccines/natural immunity not as good as claimed based on first studies. 

DJ-When will this pandemic be over ? First a definition...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#Definition[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemic#Definition What is a "normal level" for Covid19-a new disease ? 

I think everybody would be very happy if we could get it to 10,000 new cases, 100 deaths per day worldwide...If we could keep it that way for say two months-and see NO new cases in at least a lot of WHO regions-maybe then one could claim this pandemic to be over...

So ....

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table  and [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ 

Global cases +14%, deaths +1% (it was under 1% the last days so an upward trend). Europe cases +32%, deaths +3%, North America cases +34%, deaths +3%, Asia cases +15%, deaths +6%. Africa would see a decrease of cases -9%...but testing is a problem...deaths +10%. Oceania (a.o. Australia) cases +54%, deaths +212%...with limited numbers...

South America cases -12%, deaths -9%...if you even think these numbers reflect more then just a glimpse dream on...

In these statistics global deaths are put at just over 4,1 million-in reality India on its own may be over that number...

Statistics give some indications-nothing more...

So vaccine protection;

Israel cases +90%, deaths +30%..last week 10, this week 13...yes those numbers are still limited ! Vaccines do make some difference-for now-but a pandemic "is a marathon not a sprint"!!!!

UK cases +32%, deaths +61%...last week "only" 213, this week "just" 342...The UK has seen higher than these numbers per day but the upward trend should alarm us !

If you believe these statistics are showing we are getting out of this pandemic you also believe the "once in a hundred years" claim made for flood events, wildfires...now being made several times per month...After extreme rain last week in Europe we now see extreme rains in China, wildfires in the US...Get real !

-Flutrackers latest posts (etc);

[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing  good info...I may not agree 100% on the vaccines-we need much more then "just vaccines"! But sptember-some regions end of august-schools/economies restarting-with high number of variant(s) and limited vaccinations...It should mean MORE NPI ! I think we have no other choice then to respect-but inform-those that do not want to get a vaccine !

Again-in 99% of cases (+)-I think people are better of vaccinated...but I am against vaccination in babies for now...Democracy has to have room for "agree to disagree"...Certainly in vaccinations ! But I am in favour of closing borders, restaurants, events etc...if cases are that high. 

Most economies switch to internet sales, work/study from home...If people want to work or study from home it should be a legal right if the job/study offers room for it ! Why that part is not a law yet ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919895-china-7-new-local-confirmed-covid-19-cases-in-nanjing-4-places-adjusted-to-medium-risk-areas-jiangsu-province-july-21-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919895-china-7-new-local-confirmed-covid-19-cases-in-nanjing-4-places-adjusted-to-medium-risk-areas-jiangsu-province-july-21-2021 And a few others-China has a problem-just like Australia-getting a grip on the Delta variant.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021 ;

DJ Cases UK +41,2%, deaths +48%, hospitalcases +39,5%, testing -0,8%

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/919866-when-no-number-is-right-covid-edition[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/919866-when-no-number-is-right-covid-edition

Every day we are inundated by numbers which purport to tell us how many people are currently infected with COVID, how many have died, the effectiveness of vaccines against COVID infection (or COVID illness, hospitalization, or death), and forward-looking estimates of where these numbers will be a week, or a month, or a year from now.


And while most (but certainly not all) of these numbers are the product of honest and ethical endeavors, they are invariably all going to be wrong.

During the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, I wrote repeatedly on our inability to accurate count – or even estimate – the number of H1N1 flu deaths in the United States and around the globe.

DJ-Statistics give indications...nothing more. There are limits to testing ! In a complex proces small differences can have major outcomes...this is a far from perfect world !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910938-spain-detects-american-minks-with-coronavirus-march-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/910938-spain-detects-american-minks-with-coronavirus-march-2021?view=stream latest-two more mink farms report Covid in minks...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917438-india-media-outlet-explains-why-there-may-be-a-large-undercount-in-covid-19-deaths-june-15-2021-rpt-india-s-excess-deaths-in-pandemic-up-to-4-9-million[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/india/india-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917438-india-media-outlet-explains-why-there-may-be-a-large-undercount-in-covid-19-deaths-june-15-2021-rpt-india-s-excess-deaths-in-pandemic-up-to-4-9-million DJ-Proberbly the main reason has to be the government did not want to know...

-There are several good (short often) video's ;

MedCram (from Southern California/US) ; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXV7i1yxu6c[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXV7i1yxu6c putting recent studies versus the Delta variant...DJ-And effectivity should be monitored-variants are developing. Worst case would be resistent variant able to infect people over and over again. 

Since we have that much limited sequencing how often does infection with several variants happen ? One variant infecting lower respitory system, the other variant in upper respitory...maybe #3 in stomach ? Mixing all the time...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80OtvrxlGVI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80OtvrxlGVI ZOE-Prof. Tim Spector-short video-where do we go from here after "Freedom Day"..."Freedom comes from learning how to live with Covid"...hmmm-We have to do better, I think ! [url]https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/7-tips-freedom-day[/url] or https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/7-tips-freedom-day ;

Know all the symptoms-with 80% (?) asymptomatic spread ? 

Drbeen [url]https://www.youtube.com/user/USMLEOnline[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/user/USMLEOnline also has good info...

-Music; Madness - Night Boat To Caïro [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLLL1KxpYMA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lLLL1KxpYMA  1979


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2021 at 10:33pm

Big "data dump" yesterday from Worldometer statistics.  21,220 extra cases not recorded in yesterday's 'new cases' and 12,429 extra deaths (also not shown in 'new deaths).  

 I don't save all the daily statistics, but one country that did dump data was Ecuador, where deaths went up 40% from just under 22,000 to 30,744.  Even from the beginning of the pandemic there were stories out of Ecuador indicating that the true death rate was much higher than the official one, and this sort of revision makes those stories credible,


The late release of data seems to be worse this year than last with 1.95% of all cases being reported late, but a whopping 9.43% of all deaths being 'slipped into the statistics late' so do not show up in "today's death rate".   In 2020 only 3.03% of deaths were reported late.    

It is like we are seeing a wide-spread attempt to 'slow down the news' of the number of deaths, even if the deaths are finally announced.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2021 at 12:18am

I heard last week about one country - and I think it was Singapore but I'm not certain - announcing that they felt it was no longer useful to report on numbers with the virus. In other words they are just going to let it get on as if it's already endemic. I think this is what happened with the Spanish Flu. Eventually it became the very mild stain of flu that we're all acclimatised to today. 

I also heard last week from someone in Canada who said that really no one was talking about covid anymore. They were just pretty much back to normal there. It wasn't a big deal. Compare that to the Uk were it's become a national obsession. Honestly from here it looks like the Brits have all been brainwashed.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2021 at 1:49am

Global News: Canada’s 4th COVID-19 wave will be among unvaccinated, with fewer restrictions: experts.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8042113/covid-19-fourth-wave-unvaccinated/



Reading that article haven't they seen what's happening in our eastern states with a lax approach to lockdowns......

Clearly the Delta strain hasn't hit there yet......

Never mind the real bad one that's a coming.......

Take care all 😷😉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2021 at 2:57am

Covid is a national obsession on our TV.  The "guy in the street" is less interested.  It is understood nationally that it is now endemic (Thanks Boris!) and we have to learn to live with it.

This angers me beyond my ability to express!  "Ok, so it will become just another mild disease" is contrary to my complete ethos.  Diseases that are now mild achieved that status by killing off all of the succeptable first.  This is the normal way of evolution.   Of course we could become extinct from one of these problems, most species (99.9% so far)1 surrender to evolution in the end becoming extinct; many go through disease and we could too.

But accepting that is contrary to the whole purpose of medicine.  If we did not intervene in childbirth, more babies and women would die, but eventually childbirth would become easier.  If we did not treat infections, eventually we would, as a species, become more resistant to them.  We could just let cancer patients die, hopefully before they breed and pass the faulty genes on.  BUT EVERY ONE OF THOSE DEATHS WOULD HAVE BEEN SOMEONE LOVED BY SOMEONE ELSE. 

Our medicine actually weakens us in an evolutionary sense, but that is a price well worth paying.  Maybe one day our medicine will even become advanced enough to take charge of our evolution too - if we can get the lunatic end of religion out of the way and become an advanced enough society first.  

But even without that, our need to help and care for each other is the essence of our humanity and the one redeming feature of our entire species.

How do you tell if a politician is lying?
His lips or pen are moving.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2021 at 9:58pm

DJ,

I believe every human has a basic right to do some stupid things in his/her live. I know I made some "not super" choices...(let me think...not finishing history study because there were no jobs at the time was not one of my best choices...in relationships I made wrong choices-glad damage was limited, what else ? Will be enough to find I guess...).

So even if not taking a vaccine may for some be for the wrong reasons who am I to deny others a right to make a "wrong" choice ?

Again I hate to see headlines now showing up "unvaccinated will be blamed for new outbreaks"...Because such communication is spreading lies on vaccines;

First of all in most countries vaccination strategy/campains "were far from perfect"...In many countries young people are still waiting to be able to get vaccinated. There are more "arms" then vaccines !

Second of course is variants get better and better in evading immunity-noth vaccine and natural. If not allready-soon-most new infections will be in the vaccinated groups in a lot of countries !

Third is "compensating limited vaccine uptake". I believe I did see Amsterdam only had 23% fully vaccinated...So that should translate in more restrictions...better communications...!

Four is dividing "the nation" in stead of searching unity does not help in containing this pandemic. In a "free country" there should be room for lots of disagreements...The majority in history has had it wrong often enough...The "dominant" choice may not always be the "best" choice...

We-as humans-should try to respect eachother and help where it is needed. Nobody was waiting for or enjoying this pandemic. 

Governments, politicians, have to show leadership and wisdom. I basiccally believe in being honest is needed for trust...Without some basic trust society gets impossible.  In many ways this pandemic allready IS a political crisis !

-Statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

The US-back at #1 for new cases-a.o. the Delta(+?) variant exploding. Over 56,500 cases reported-with increase of asymptomatic spread and the US at "third world level" for testing/sequencing the real numbers must be much higher. US deaths 416=#7

#2 Brazil is back-almost 54,750 cases-1,388 deaths...#1...the fascist/CIA puppet bolsonaro is going "herd immunty genocide"...

At #3 for cases the UK with over 44,000 cases being reported. UK at #16 with 73 deaths...populationwise the UK is at #21 with its 68 million. China still number 1 but India is moving in...

How to look at Covid-statistics ? NL reporting "just" over 17,000 Covid deaths...excess deaths according to Dutch Central Buro of Statistics (CBS) is over 40,000...The statistics may give an indication where cases may be going up or down...the hardest hit area's somewhat...But even India-deaths "just" 10% of the "more realistic" 4 million may be underreporting...

The number of global excess deaths due to this pandemic most likely allready is in the tens of millions. Estimates for the Spanish Flu are between 20 and 100 million-or 2 to 5% of the global population in 1918/1919. At present global population is just under 8 billion..so 2% of that number would be 160 million. In % so far this Covid pandemic did not overtake the Spanish Flu...I think it is realistic to expect it will take over the 2-5% global death-percentage. 

When you look at history "real" pandemics may kill +30% of the population...So from that perspective both Spanish Flu, Covid, HIV/AIDS are still "mild"...

Underestimating infectious diseases, pandemic risks has been a red line during all of this pandemic ! 

Again; pandemic triangle= 1. Disease, 2. Hosts, 3. Spread...In 2021 "Spread" is best a disease ever had during human history. A variant can spread from one continent to several others in a matter of hours...and we are hardly stopping it ! Also the number of human hosts-almost 8 billion of us-virus party time ! So maximum spread, maximum hosts will result in disease developing high spead...If non-human hosts get a major factor (minks are a limited factor-cluster 5/Denmark/NL) hosts gets even worse...

Denial is the best way to make a problem explode ! And from Euro-crisis to climate "change" politics agree to "kick the can down the road" unable and unwilling to come with real solutions !

The basic problem is "western lifestyle consumption" would need several earths-we just "have" one Earth...A realistic answer is more wise consumption...Durabillity as a basis not profit/greed...The "good news" is YOU can make a difference ! 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table trends;

Global cases +11%, deaths +0,5%. UK cases +37%, deaths +60%...BoJo&Co-going for the Brazil scenario-expecting more vaccines may result in a better outcome. In my (DJ) opinion "genocide by pandemic for economic reasons". A criminal choice putting the bill at the poor that did NOT cause this problem. NL cases +12% (with limited testing), deaths +60% (10 last week, 16 this week-upward trend) also on "genocide by pandemic for the rich...". 

India cases -3%, deaths -37%...very limited testing, hardly any sequencing..Delta+ variant cases exploding ? Most likely "just ignoring" natural immunity-vaccine immunity is very limited. 

Israel cases +83% !!!!! 3,944 last week-this week 7,230 !!!! Suggesting (in Israel Pfizer-BioNTech-)vaccines do offer far from perfect protection. Deaths last week 12, this week 13=+8%...So vaccines mat at least offer some protection against severe disease for now...

Since this pandemic is "long term" (it will not end this year-if we put the beginning of this pandemic at 1-1-2020 by 1-1-2022 we will be in this pandemic two years) limited-and decreasing protection by vaccines IS a factor ! 

Can we go for the "endemic option" expecting Covid will develop into a "cold" ? We "could if it would"...so far Covid is "far from a cold"...So far high numbers mean new variants...So far those new variants in practice means MORE infections=more severe disease, growing evasion of immunity ! 

The "endemic option", "herd immunity" strategy would only be acceptable if there are no other options left. Since we live-most of us-in a democrazy in wich $, € count more then votes "economy" is put above "public health" . That insanity is "eating the planet we depend upon"...that "culture" has to change if "we" as human species want to survive...

A global BoJO&CO/bolsonaro "herd immunity genocide" proberbly is pushing us deeper into the swamp-not out...Increasing climate change does not STOP climate change...Increasing a pandemic does NOT stop this pandemic ! 

-Flutrackers latests posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/919969-gamma-variant-accounts-for-4-times-more-illinois-covid-19-cases-than-better-known-delta-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/919969-gamma-variant-accounts-for-4-times-more-illinois-covid-19-cases-than-better-known-delta-variant ; In Illinois while COVID-19 cases continue to rise quickly, the Delta variant is not the variant of most concern.
If asked to name a variant, you would probably come up with Delta first. It is easily the most talked about. While it is of concern in Chicago, other variants that are just as concerning are taking hold more quickly.

“We are sounding the alarm today because we are starting to see this uptick,” Mayor Lori Lightfoot said at City Hall Tuesday.

But the sound of music will still race through Grant Park next week, and so will an expected 100,000 Lollapalooza attendees. Lightfoot said she does not have second thoughts about green-lighting it despite an uptick in COVID cases.

As of Monday, Illinois had a total of 10,592 COVID-19 variant cases. That is twice as many as it had on May 11....

DJ-Limited reports, very poor US testing/sequencing "hint" at several variants increasing in the US ! Lambda, Gamma, Delta+...With my very limited knowledge I think the number of people infected by SEVERAL variants at the same time may increase...resulting in even more variants. Limited-often first-vaccinations increase vaccine escape...

Still the US proberbly is still doing better then "countries we keep poor"...(South America keeps reporting both cases -14%, deaths -12%...Lambda, Gamma variants started there...does it provide better "natural immunity" against the Delta variant-for now ?).

See also [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/919968-%E2%80%98a-tipping-point%E2%80%99-kansas-city-hospitals-are-turning-away-patients-due-to-covid-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/919968-%E2%80%98a-tipping-point%E2%80%99-kansas-city-hospitals-are-turning-away-patients-due-to-covid-surgeLike other hospitals in the Kansas City region, the University of Kansas Health System is turning down transfer patients because its beds are full, setting up a potential crisis, its chief medical officer said Wednesday.

DJ-If there are no hospital beds for severe cases a lot of those patients may die...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919967-covid-19-amid-spike-in-cases-iraq-warns-hospitals-are-almost-losing-control[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/919967-covid-19-amid-spike-in-cases-iraq-warns-hospitals-are-almost-losing-control ; DJ Iraq is just one of tens of countries warning hospitals running out of capacity/oxygen...

There have been warnings Delta(+) variants we bring Covid-pandemic part two...It could develop into a major wave behaving like "immunity is not there"....with a 1000 time higher viral load then the "wild" early 2020 variant this Delta-pandemic "will hurt" more then this pandemic did hurt so far ! And other variants are also still there, mutating, spreading...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919965-cidrap-global-covid-19-cases-rise-12-in-past-week[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919965-cidrap-global-covid-19-cases-rise-12-in-past-week

According to the latest data from the World Health Organization's (WHO's) weekly situation report, global COVID-19 cases rose 12% in the past week, with all regions except the Americas and Africa reporting increases. Cases have risen globally since the beginning of the month.

The five biggest contributors of new cases were Indonesia, the United Kingdom, Brazil, India, and the United States—countries in which the highly transmissible Delta (B1617.2) variant is swiping through unvaccinated populations.

Countries experiencing large jumps in daily case counts include Botswana (172%), Vietnam (146%), the United States (68%), Indonesia (44%), Malaysia (44%), and the United Kingdom (41%).

"Globally, COVID-19 case weekly incidence increased with an average of around 490,000 cases reported each day over the past week as compared to 400,000 cases daily in the previous week," the WHO said.

The Delta variant was detected in 13 more countries this past week, raising the total number to 124. The Alpha variant (B117) has been detected and is circulating in 180 countries.

The WHO said the rise in cases has to do with both variants of concern, relaxing social restrictions, and inequitable vaccine access.


PAHO head on 'pandemic of the unvaccinated'

In a new Kaiser Family Foundation analysis on vaccine disparities, only 1% of people in low-income countries have received a first vaccine dose, versus 51% of people in higher-income countries. In total, about 3.7 billion vaccine doses have been administered globally.

"More and more, disease trends are showing a region divided by vaccine access. In countries with adequate vaccine supply, infections are decreasing; in places where vaccine coverage is still low, in those countries, infections remain high," said Carissa Etienne, MBBS, director of the WHO's Pan American Health Organization, during a press briefing.

"We face a pandemic of the unvaccinated, and the only way to stop it is to expand vaccination. Vaccines are critical, even if no vaccine is 100% effective."

Etienne said that in countries in which more than one third of the population is vaccinated, including Costa Rica, Chile, and Argentina, case counts are steadily dropping. But vaccination progress in many nations in Central America and the Caribbean remains slow.

Other COVID-19 developments

  • The Olympic Games haven't officially started yet, but 79 COVID cases have already been linked to the event. In an address to the International Olympic Committee, WHO's Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, PhD, voiced support for the Games and used the opportunity to point out vaccine inequities.
  • In Australia, both New South Wales and Victoria states are seeing spikes in cases, dimming hopes for a quick end to their lockdowns, Reuters reported.
  • The global total today reached 191,763,648 COVID-19 cases and 4,122,507 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins online tracker.

DJ-The best vaccinated countries also show an explosion of cases...so far often severe cases may be limited. The WHO may be run by Big Pharma/science for sale...Realism SHOWS vaccines do NOT stop spread of the virus enough to be a decisive factor ! 

This may be unwelcome news for "vaccine promotion teams" dressed as "science"...but please wake up !

DJ-Most of us would be better of-for now-with vaccines. But vaccines are NOT the answer !!!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919964-cidrap-us-life-expectancy-drops-18-months-due-to-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919964-cidrap-us-life-expectancy-drops-18-months-due-to-covid-19 ; The US life expectancy dropped by 18 months due to COVID-19, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) National Center for Health Statistics.
Life expectancy was 78.8 years in 2019, and was 77.3 years in 2020, the largest drop since World War II. COVID-19 contributed 74% to the decline in life expectancy.
As with all aspects of the pandemic in the United States, there were sharp racial and ethnic divides in the data. For Black Americans, life expectancy dropped 2.9 years from 74.7 years in 2019 to 71.8 in 2020. And Hispanic Americans had the biggest drop—3 years, with Hispanic males seeing a drop of 3.7 years.
"Among the causes contributing negatively to the change in life expectancy, COVID-19 contributed 90% for the Hispanic population, 67.9% for the non-Hispanic white population, and 59.3% for the non-Hispanic black population," the CDC said.

DJ-Global "apartheid" means poor suffer more while they did not cause the problem ! The link also mentions "US divided on vaccines" based on "vaccine conspiracies" and J&J "ineffective" against the Delta variant...

Now there is a lot of garbage from all kind of anti-vax, pandemic deniers...but if MSM claims some vaccines are not effective to some major variants the message is simple-"do not take the vaccine"...Communications during this pandemic are terrible...Embedded press reprinting experts claims without thinking do a bad job ! 

I believe a lot of politicians, journalists want to do better ! THINK !!!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream Some of the latest points;

We are early in this disease. Despite many studies saying one thing, or the other, the fact is we just don't know everything.

Be prudent. Do NOT depend on a vaccine or any drug to "save you". Get your control back. Even if you are fully vaccinated like I am, be careful what situations you put yourself into.

Today there is a study that the RNA vaccines may give long term protection....ok....show me the real life data around virus shedding people.....

Masks are being pushed...ok...they help....but the most common ones let air inside...so they are only sorta effective by themselves.....

There are some drugs....but again, do you really want to count on this?

So, in the end, use your common sense....assess your risk factors....pick what venues to attend...take a mask if you are uneasy....

COVID-19 is airborne. You know what to do.

Only you can protect you.

-

Nearly 40% of new COVID patients in Israel were vaccinated - compared to just 1% who had
been infected previously.
More than 7,700 new cases of the virus have been detected during the most recent wave
starting in May, but just 72 of the confirmed cases were reported in people who were
known to have been infected previously – that is, less than 1% of the new cases.


With a total of 835,792 Israelis known to have recovered from the virus, the 72 instances
of reinfection amount to 0.0086% of people who were already infected with COVID.


By contrast, Israelis who were vaccinated were 6.72 times more likely to get infected after the
shot than after natural infection, with over 3,000 of the 5,193,499, or 0.0578%, of Israelis who
were vaccinated getting infected in the latest wave.


According to a report by Channel 13, the disparity has confounded – and divided – Health
Ministry experts, with some saying the data proves the higher level of immunity provided by
natural infection versus vaccination, while others remained unconvinced.

DJ-The Israel story on "natural immunity" is even more complex. In Manaus-Brazil "natural immunity" offered NO protection against P1/Gamma variant ! Again-vaccines may buy us time-to think of a better plan...and we are not doing that !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919960-cidrap-left-behind-1-5-million-kids-may-have-lost-parent-caregiver-to-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/919960-cidrap-left-behind-1-5-million-kids-may-have-lost-parent-caregiver-to-covid-19 By keeping countries, people poor we are destroying lives...We have to do better in stopping inequality ! It is totally unacceptable to see billionaires playing with space toys during a pandemic ! If governments do not see the immorality of this what kind of humans are there in government ? 

Again-the poor did NOT create the climate crisis, this pandemic-yet they pay the price !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021 latest;

Cases +40,7%, deaths +60,6%, [url]https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/url] or https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ for latest numbers...hospital cases keep going up, testing now increasing again in the UK ? In the UK 69,1% of adult population fully vaccinated. (It does leave open if that number also has 2 weeks to build up immunity...In older age groups developing-less-immunity may take longer...not all people develop the same level of vaccine immunity...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/919903-epa-air-quality-and-fire-maps[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/earth-weather-astronomy-environment/volcanos-earthquakes-glaciers-fires-hurricanes/919903-epa-air-quality-and-fire-maps DJ-US/Canada west coast wildfires (once-in a hundred year...showing up several times per year) spreading smoke to the US/Canada east coast by strong winds...Once in a hundred years heavy rains last week in Europe were followed by once in a hundred year rains in China this week-among others....

"Science" and "experts" spreading LIES !!!! via the WHO, IPCC on this pandemic, climate crisis (sea levelrise 1m+ in 2100...we can stop it with "new techniques" we still have to find...sounds a bit like [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enron_scandal spending "profits to be created" at "sponsoring/buying" "politicians" before going bankrupt....

Again-looking at the facts-as far as available-vaccines are of limited use !!!! We have to think of a better plan !!! 

Yes-I am fully Pfizer vaccinated and hope it will protect me somewhat...but I am "old"...Do we really want to vaccinate babies ? (Reminds me of "Camel" sigarettes in Indonesia trying to find a new market in children-selling sigarettes as candy...How low do companies go for profit ? Very, very low !!!).

DJ-My conclusions; vaccine strategy without NPI may-on longer term-have an even worse outcome then "natural herd immunity-genocide"...Both "strategies" are based on wishfull thinking NOT science ! 

Vaccines may have "added value" in a much wider NPI strategy-STOP THE SPREAD !!!. Just like masks-on their own- have limited value-at best- (opening up the frontdoor instead of the garagedoor...) but may be of use in a wider plan including social distance, avoiding crowds, hygiene, etc. vaccines could be a part of a much wider strategy-including NPI, travel restrictions, limited mass events...

If you vaccinate not even 70% "fully" with a vaccine that may not even 90%-per 1,000 people 700 get 90% protection=630 per 1,000.

If protection drops to 60% per 1,000=700x60% =420 people protected enough...

Again new variants may be (much) more infectious-if you do not compensate for the vaccination-gap via NPI you are NOT stopping this pandemic ! Blame-games, first China, now unvaccinated, do not help but damage !

-The BoJo-fan Dr. John Campbell on Long Covid [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRTKIlS7egI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRTKIlS7egI also links to Long Covid support groups under the video. Oven "Open letters" to BoJo on including Long Covid in "his supposed strategy" (DJ). 

I think vaccines may offer protection against long covid ! But if you open the doors for young unvaccinated people the vaccines will not protect !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnCgQQ8yLAw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnCgQQ8yLAw Prof. Tim Spencer-UK cases up 60,000 per day-most in unvaccinated younger age groups, but 23,000+ in the vaccinated. The "plateau" he had in last week update-no increase of new cases-was based on wrong calculations. Since the ZOE-tracker app is not used by a cross section of UK population they correct the statistics to translate it to all of the UK population. 

DJ-Since ZOE is "simply" trying to "follow a very complex story" their info may be more of value. A weak spot remains in participants giving wrong info-resulting in wrong data...(So if an anti-vaxer would create a 100 accounts-claiming no vaccination, no restriction=still no infection the data may be "less"...but millions of people use the app.)

Another week spot could be in a certain tunnel visions; vaccines have to protect. Even leaky vaccines-in a tunnel vision-would be better then no vaccines...If you use that tunnel vision you may find yourself "finding the results you want to find"...

Music-nice weather [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0AOGeqOnFY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w0AOGeqOnFY Coconut song-by San Miguel Master Chorale in 2004 ? Funny video ! 

Also in the US Emergency Department visits were going up-according to BoJo-fan Dr.J.C. 

Work in progres


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2021 at 6:53am

Four is dividing "the nation" in stead of searching unity does not help in containing this pandemic. In a "free country" there should be room for lots of disagreements...The majority in history has had it wrong often enough...The "dominant" choice may not always be the "best" choice...

We-as humans-should try to respect eachother and help where it is needed. Nobody was waiting for or enjoying this pandemic.


If a person who is unvaxxed wants me to respect his/her "right"/decision to be unvaxxed, then (s)he needs to respect my right to be safe in my own person.  Since the unvaxxed stand a much greater likelihood of catching/spreading Covid than vaxxed, if they want to have the right to not vax, they should accept the responsibility to mask up (and I believe glove, too), practice social distancing, and most importantly, STAY THE @#$& HOME whenever possible!  Only when people accept accompanying responsibilities are they worthy of rights when those rights collide with the rights of others.  Otherwise, they are as I said earlier -- selfish and irresponsible, not to be taken seriously, and not allowed at the adult table. 

I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2021 at 7:41am

ViQueen24-There are a few people in my family not willing to get vaccinated. I respect their choice but I will not be seeing them for the coming months at least...Even if they do not like that. 

It is the government job to set clear rules ! (And they fail there !) Again-stop mass events, air travel...Make masks a rule in shops & jobs ! 

Vaccines do not offer full protection. Convincing people to get vaccinated may be more effective then trying to make it mandatory while you know some groups will "go far" against enforcing vaccines. 

I think for most regions it is very "simple"-get vaccinated or infected ! For some it is "learning the hard way"...Here in NL more people do want vaccines then there are vaccines available. So making vaccines mandatory-if you do not have enough yet-is not the best choice. (The Dutch "government" is not even stopping vacations in Spain, Portugal...our "king" himself spends most of the year in his Greece house...If you are not willing to stop importing variants-I do not see a basis for mandatory vaccinations in NL...)

In the US for some time there are more vaccins then people accepting them. Better communications may help. Show people what is happening in hospitals, ICU's, grave yards...no sugar-coating ! 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2021 at 1:50pm

Josh, I think the problem with mandatory vaccination is that in this case the proposed vaccines are still in their experimental phase. The long term effects of taking them is anyone's guess. Now if it were a proven safe vaccine like the meningitis vaccine, that would be a different story. 

I once worked in a facility that in order to work there, I was required to be vaccinated against hepatitis. I didn't have a problem with this and was duly vaccinated, but I did have a choice. I could decide not to and turn the job down. I wasn't being forced to work there. Taking away someone's choice is also taking away their freedom.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2021 at 9:59pm

The vaccine discussion may continue untill it gets in the media that vaccines "may develop towards almost useless within weeks"....[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ; link to [url]https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/10/21-1427_article[/url] or https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/10/21-1427_articleThe attack rate was 60% (15/25) among fully vaccinated miners and 75% (3/4) among unvaccinated miners without a history of infection.

DJ-Eric Ding says the Pfizer vaccine was used in this story-it may be "false vaccines in a limited region"...but ; Several BNT162b2 batch numbers were involved. Vaccine temperature had been monitored and electronically recorded by LogTag Analyzer (LogTag Recorders, http://www.logtag-recorders.comExternal Link) without any break in the cold chain. The attack rate was 15/25 (60.0%) in fully vaccinated miners, 6/15 (40.0%) in those partially vaccinated or with a history of COVID-19, and 3/4 (75%) in those not vaccinated. Attack rate was 0/6 among persons with a previous history of COVID-19 versus 63.2% among those with no previous history (Table). 

It looks like they did get "official" vaccines...Gamma/P1/Brazil variant...

The reason why governments are pushing this hard on vaccines is that they do not like the alternative; long term restrictions. While all experts expect vaccines will offer less protection due to mutations after infection in (partly) vaccinated hosts...

Big Pharma made major claims on how good vaccines would be...In the UK the most used vaccine Astra Zeneca may not offer much protection against the Beta/South Africa variant with quite a lot of cases in Europe...so if the Beta variant shows up in the UK it may spread...even in the vaccinated. 

-Numbers ; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/  US back at #1 with over 61,000 new cases, Brazil #2 almost 50,000 cases, at #3 Indonesia also close to 50,000 cases. UK at #4 reporting close to 40,000 cases. In deaths, Indonesia had 1,449 deaths to report, Brazil 1,444, Russia 796, India at #4 with 481, South Africa #5 433 deaths. 

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; Global cases +8%, deaths +2%-worldwide almost 55,000 deaths in a week reported. UK cases +25%, deaths +51%...387 last week, 257 the week before...

US cases +57%, deaths -8%. Israel cases +80%...last week 7,712-the week before 4,285...Deaths +27%, last week 14, the week before 11...translating to 1,100 cases, 2 deaths per day in one of the best vaccinated, best public healthcare countries with a population of 9,3 million. 

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-data-offer-mixed-signals-on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-data-offer-mixed-signals-on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/

Local research claims Pfizer shot now only 41% effective against symptomatic COVID, while British stats have it at 88%

DJ-The UK has used Astra Zeneca most, Israel went for Pfizer vaccines most...New Health Ministry statistics indicated that, on average, the Pfizer shot — the vaccine given to nearly all Israelis — is now just 39% effective against infection, while being only 41% effective in preventing symptomatic COVID. Previously, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was well over 90% effective against infection.

I take the Israel story very serious ! It underlines the limits of vaccines-not very welcome....but better face it !

Eric Ding also on twitter mentioning masks reintroduction-discussion in the US, travel restrictions...(DJ-Repeating the same wrong choices over and over again....)

I may take some time to look at all the variants at [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ but sequencing is that bad-in general-it is almost pointless...Also testing (here in NL DDOS-attack on test site) may be going down...making statistics even more misleading then they already were...

-Flutrackers latest posts; 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/916924-cutaneous-manifestations-of-a-21st-century-worldwide-fungal-epidemic-possibly-complicating-the-covid-19-pandemic-to-jointly-menace-mankind[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/916924-cutaneous-manifestations-of-a-21st-century-worldwide-fungal-epidemic-possibly-complicating-the-covid-19-pandemic-to-jointly-menace-mankind latest; U.S. sees first cases of dangerous fungus resistant to all drugs in untreated people 

DJ Fungul coinfections make this Covid pandemic even more deadly, destructive...STOP THE SPREAD !!!!! Reopening with very limited vaccinations (both in people being vaccinated and vaccine effectivity) and much more infectious variants is making this pandemic unstopable...just crazy...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/further-communications/913004-reports-of-censorship-during-pandemic?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/further-communications/913004-reports-of-censorship-during-pandemic?view=stream latest; Senator Amy Klobuchar introduced a bill Thursday to make online platforms like Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc. legally liable for misinformation about health issues such as Covid-19.

DJ-Allthough facebook, twitter have a responsibility government communications are terrible...If governments would do a much better job people would turn less to alternatives ! Mandatory vaccines, censorship on the internet may backfire...There has to be room to discuss Ivermectin ! There should be room to discuss vaccines !!! Another example of censorship is the channel run by Dr. Mobeen Syed, a medical educator. https://www.youtube.com/c/USMLEOnline/videos. He has had over 50 videos taken down by you tube, that simply looked at published clinical data and analysed the studies - for the most part, these appear to have looked at ivermectin data. Discussion and hypothesis is a key foundation of all science..worrying times. DJ-I did get banned on some forums for discussing history studies...

Who financed Germany in ww2?
Some US Bank and large US Companies funded the Germans in World War 2. One of these banks,The Union Bank run by Prescott Bush owned by George Herbert Walker was seized by the U.S in 1942 for trading with the Germans.

Of course it may be "unwelcome" to learn "royal families" of Europe, German and US companies did finance Germany going to war. German tanks with GM engines running on Dutch Shell fuel paid by US banks is not the picture we like to see...In this pandemic learning the main goal was increasing profit for Big Pharma should be very unwelcome...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream latest; 

UK cases last week +40,7% with testing +0,4%. Hospital cases +38,4%, deaths +60,6%..."but still limited" do we have to wait to see "deaths" explode again-or could we at least STOP THE SPREAD !!!! I am getting so angry over this.....  !

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnCgQQ8yLAw&t=339s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KnCgQQ8yLAw&t=339s ZOE...Hopes that wave of infections had peaked fade...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920045-cidrap-delta-driven-covid-19-surges-worsen-in-parts-of-asia[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920045-cidrap-delta-driven-covid-19-surges-worsen-in-parts-of-asia ....DJ US is doing quite good in exporting vaccines, the EU is not...claiming they are funding vaccine factories in some countries we keep poor...

The Delta(+) variant may become a "pandemic" on top of the present pandemic. If we do not stop the spread variants will find new "homes and hosts"....DJ-Again !!!! If you look at history you can not take pandemics serious enough !!!!

The Spanish Flu 1918/19 was a MILD pandemic, "only" killing between 2 and 5% of global (human) population. If we do not take this pandemic serious we will further see exponential growth...One may see 1% to 2% increase is "limited", 2% to 4% is "a worry"...4% to 8% "unwelcome" 8% to 16% "unexpected" 16% to 32% "shocking" 32% to 64% "unstopable"...64% to 100% "deadly" but that is exponential growth ! 

Do not joke with pandemics !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/920038-israel-seriously-ill-covid-patients-recovering-faster-than-in-earlier-waves-%E2%80%94-report[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/920038-israel-seriously-ill-covid-patients-recovering-faster-than-in-earlier-waves-%E2%80%94-reportPatients listed in serious condition spent an average of 8 days in the hospital in first week of July, compared to 10-12 days during first half of year

DJ Vaccines may offer some protection; The newest figures are from a much shorter period of time, but they indicated that the latest uptick in cases caused by the Delta variant of the coronavirus is not as severe as previous waves over the past year and a half.

The data also may allow health officials to hold back on plans to recommend implementing more drastic restrictions given the rise in seriously ill patients in recent weeks. While the number of total cases has gone from a handful a day in May to over 1,400 on Tuesday, the number of seriously ill patients — the key factor off which the government has based its strategy for managing the pandemic — has seen more modest rises...

DJ-Maybe the goal of any government should look more at bringing down the spread...most long covid cases never were in a hospital !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920036-cidrap-study-2-covid-vaccine-doses-much-more-effective-than-1-against-delta[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920036-cidrap-study-2-covid-vaccine-doses-much-more-effective-than-1-against-deltaOne dose of either vaccine conferred much lower protection against Delta than Alpha (30.7% and 48.7%, respectively, for both vaccines; difference, 11.9 percentage points with Pfizer, 18.7 with AstraZeneca).
But two doses of either vaccine were much more effective against both strains (87.5% against Alpha vs 79.6% against Delta). Two doses of the Pfizer vaccine were 88.0% effective against Delta, compared with 93.7% against Alpha. The AstraZeneca vaccine was 67.0% effective against Delta and 74.5% effective against Alpha after two doses.

DJ-One dose does offer some protection-for many countries giving the population at least one vaccination is a major step...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; Like said many times before, vaccines are only ONE TOOL. They are not 100% effective for everyone. Even fully vaccinated people need to be selective in what situations they place themselves in and, omg, masks, masks, masks, masks.

Mini rant alert warning...

I just do not understand the resistance to masks. I don't really like wearing them but they are your last resort, personal control, over a respiratory disease. In some cultures it is a standard practice to wear masks in crowded conditions, like subways, for instance.

Masks are not 100% either. They are also only ONE TOOL. They are not a guarantee of anything. But they are a small and portable defense for you to use if you find yourself in a possible disease transmitting situation.

Carrying a high quality 95N mask is you taking back your life in a pandemic. They should be celebrated and not derided

-

The Gamma variant was originally known as the COVID19 variant that was first identified in Brazil. Please see:

EID Journal: Breakthrough Infections of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant in Fully Vaccinated Gold Miners, French Guiana, 2021

DJ We need to use ALL the tools, not just one...Communication is the major tool-but governments mess it up...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/920018-j-med-case-rep-severe-reinfection-with-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-in-a-nursing-home-resident-a-case-report[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/920018-j-med-case-rep-severe-reinfection-with-severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-coronavirus-2-in-a-nursing-home-resident-a-case-reportConclusion: It is not clear whether an initial infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and recovery provides prolonged immunity beyond 2 months. Furthermore, even if antibodies are present, it does not guarantee an attenuated course during reinfection. Therefore, vaccination plays an important role in prevention. Long-term cohort studies will be needed to study the factors behind reinfection.

DJ Natural immunity should show to offer protection in Brazil, UK, Israel...but several waves of variants indicate very serious limitations on what to expect from natural immunity !

-Dr.John Campbelll [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzX49B3JyZA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzX49B3JyZA ;

Houston, Texas Increase in cases, 4th wave Lambda variant reported Now a WHO VoI Sustained transmission, UK, Spain, France, Germany  

Peru https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a30WC... Lambda (Peru variant) prevalence, 97% 

80 % of cases by April Coincides with rise in cases in deaths Seems to have taken over from gamma, (Brazilian) and alpha Delta has just entered region 

Mostly Sinopharm (52%) Online genomes, 2.5 million (3% from South America) Doctors demanding Pfizer booster Health worker in ITU with high viral loads 

UK Hopes of peak have faded R = 1.1 Cases rises in vaccinated and unvaccinated groups 

Two doses Runny nose, 74% Headache, 72% Sneezing, 62% Sore throat, 59% Loss of smell, 50% Unvaccinated Headache, 74% Sore throat, 58% Runny nose, 57% Fever, 50% Persistent cough, 52% 

Pingdemic, 8 to 15th  July Alerts in 7 days, 618,903 (England and Wales) (close contacts of a positive case) Up 17% on the week England 2.8 pings per case Some fully-vaccinated key workers will be exempt Due to be scrapped by 16 August App is advisory, notification from test and trace is mandated  

Boris Johnson Warned cases could rise even more this week  

App downloads Up to 26,826,748 No way to know if the app has been deleted YouGov suggested one in ten Between 18 and 24s, most likely to have deleted the app 

DJ The only way to get this pandemic under some control is STOP THE SPREAD ! and "we" may be learning that the hard way ! 

Music-the fascist thug breivik killed 77 young people in Norway 10 years ago...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P7rR3FbJrc [/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P7rR3FbJrc this music was made in memory of the persons killed...

Vox Humana-Eg veit i himmerik ei borg...in heaven there is a castle...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2021 at 9:59pm

DJ, 

I did watch Dr.John Campbell's video-at least part of it-yesterday. NL now "included in the English speaking countries ;-) ! Well it is the second language here...

More serious he looked at testing statistics...US testing is gone to "very poor"...He went on to talk about the Lambda variant a.o. in Texas...Included a link to DW [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a30WCWk8C0U&t=0s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a30WCWk8C0U&t=0s ...But if testing is much to limited-and from those tests only a fragment gets sequenced how can you say anything usefull on the US pandemic ? 

There is some discussion on more mask-wearing, a plan to go for booster vaccines...Delta is supposed to be growing in the US as well...CDC goes on publishing statistics. But most cases by far not even see any testing in the US. 

If the US would be catching 10% of all the cases-per 1,000 that would be 100 cases-if 2% get tested then in 2 of a 1,000 cases-after 10-14 days sequencing-you may find out what variant is spreading...

The news on vaccinated people catching all kind of variants all over the world is bad news...terrible news ! It may indicate that ALL vaccines only have limited use. At least part of a lot of variants find it easy to evade that kind of immunity. 

Natural immunity may be more effective sometimes-but much to often also gets evaded. The longer we wait with restrictions the more more resistant variants will spread. 

I did expect variants to start developing/mutating around immunity. But I am surprised by the speed of that proces. 

Some other news...Iceland is turning back some of its reopening, Taiwan lifting some restrictions but still bars closed, masks mandatory...indicating restrictions were even more serious before...Brazil is also reopening-including football matches-with lots of experts warning against it...

London-UK was looking for "body storage" capacity for the coming 4 years...[url]https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/013120-2021?origin=SearchResults&p=1[/url] or https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/013120-2021?origin=SearchResults&p=1 

-The (very limited) numbers;

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

New cases top 5; #1 US 67,485 new cases-poor testing-in reality proberbly much worse...#2 Indonesia over 49,000 cases-also limited testing-major health crisis. #3 Brazil 45,460 new cases  "low numbers" for Brazil-again limited testing...#4 India close to 40,000 cases-very limited testing-Delta+ variant increasing ? At #5 the UK 36,389 new cases...real number may be at least 2x more-lots of asymptomatic cases that do not see any testing while spreading the virus.

Deaths top 5; #1 Indonesia 1,566 record high, #2 Brazil 1,286 "new normal", #3 Russia 795-crisis #4 India 536-real number very likely 10x the reported number...at #5 South Africa-winter-450 deaths-limited testing/reporting due to large scale civil unrest. (Basically due to "white minority apartheid regime" being replaced by an ANC-elite colonialism...inequality did not end.) The US is at #6 with reporting 428 deaths...

Both in cases and deaths the US-as a rich country-has been doing bad during this pandemic. The "best prepared 3" for a pandemic in 2019-US,UK,NL all three are simply putting economy above public health...resulting in chronic health crisis. 

In these statistics we are slowly moving towards 200 million "tested/reported" cases...in reality we may be around the 1 billion ? 1/8 of the global population ? Is that a reasonable estimate ? I don't know...proberbly nobody knows...If only 1-in-8 did see Covid19 infection variants have "a lot of room" for spread. 

If 5% of cases did see reinfections, are infections with several variants at the same time such statistic would be very alarming...

The basic idea for "herd immunity" proberbly is wrong since we are dealing with a corona virus. Almost uncontrolable in (other) animals...In such a-terrible-scenario both natural and vaccine immunity would turn out to be ineffective. "Living with a virus" that causes severe disease and death-is easy said, impossible to expect...It may become a cold like virus one day-it is not such a mild virus yet...

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table ; US cases +59%, deaths +3%, UK cases +12% deaths +45%, Israel cases +67%, deaths +30% (10 last week, 13 this week...).

If there is "good news" it is that both cases and deaths have been much worse before...vaccines do make (still) some difference. A "booster-shot" (Israel, US are going that road) may bring better protection. Also vaccinating 12 y/o+ would make some change...

But-again-vaccinations on their own can impossibly get us out of this pandemic. Reopening with limited vaccination while variants are exploding is making the vaccines as good as useless high speed. Brings us in an even worse position...

We do have august in sight-last month of summer. In september schools will have restarted. We are "not getting ready" for autumn/fall...

To be honest-I did expect the UK and NL to be in much higher numbers of new cases by now. A decrease in testing is not explaining the "limited" UK/NL numbers. Vaccines DO matter ! Also proberbly a lot of people "show themselves to be more clever then their government" and do self isolate, mask, avoid crowds etc...

I hate it when somebody else claim he/she does the thinking for me ! I want to have the illusion that I make my own choices ! 

"Summer effects" may play a role in the UK-they have summer there...here in NL/NW Europe we have had a few summer-like days...but will be in cooler weather-with rain-soon. That "bad summer" may last into half of august for NL...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/920118-china-chp-confirms-3-new-h5n6-avian-flu-cases-1-death-2-critical-in-chongqing-and-sichuan-province-july-23-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/920118-china-chp-confirms-3-new-h5n6-avian-flu-cases-1-death-2-critical-in-chongqing-and-sichuan-province-july-23-2021Three cases of H5N6 avian influenza were registered in China's Sichuan province, with one of the infected dead and two other remaining in critical state, the Hong Kong Health Department said on Friday.

The one fatality was confirmed in Xuanhan County in a 51-year-old woman. First symptoms were detected on June 25, she was hospitalized on July 3 and died one day later.

The second infected is a 57-year-old man from the city of Ziyang. He developed fever on June 22 and was hospitalized on July 5. The third case, a 66-year-old man from the city of Chongqing, developed symptoms on June 23 and was hospitalized on July 4. Both of them are currently in critical state.

All three cases were confirmed to have had contact with domestic birds.

The first human case of H5N6 bird flu was detected in Sichuan in mid-July...

DJ-H5N6 jumping from birds to humans...a next step could be human-to-human. All three reported cases hospital, one died...something to keep an eye on...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021 latest;

Cases +11,4%, testing -4,9% ....Deaths +45,1%, Hospital cases +28%  DJ-Vaccinated people are less likely to seek testing-since they may believe vaccination does mean they can not get Covid...So they only would go for testing if symptoms show up. 

In the UK "social pressure" also is on NOT reporting a positive test-since it does effect the work-force. Co-workers may have to isolate...the "pingdemic" is a major UK problem (+10% of UK workers now in a form of isolation due to contacts with a possibly infected person.)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=streamI'm in one of the 'hot zones' and I'm seeing more people outdoors in masks again. Today I saw a neighbor get picked up by someone and both had blue medical gloves and masks on. That's unusual.

I found that Lowe's and Home Depot have 3M N-95 masks. We got a box of 10. We need them for smoke exposures and for home projects so they won't go to waste even if we don't need them for the pandemic. Buying a batch really brings down the price per unit. I'm so glad they are available again.

DJ reported by "Emily"...other statistics may give indications on the pandemic situation...If there is an increase in self testing, pain killers, vitamins sales it could indicate an increasing health issue. 

Limited "news"; silence for the storm...

-Some video's ;

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hplyClO1qw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hplyClO1qw Citizens-The silent pandemic. ; As a third wave grips Britain, tens of thousands more people will develop Long Covid. Working with Dr Nisreen Alwan, filmmakers Kitty Teague and John Lubbock spoke to survivors about the devastating impact Long Covid has had on their lives and why the government urgently needs to take it more seriously.

DJ-Both the UK and NL-among others-look at hospital/deaths statistics-ignore "milder cases" eventhough most long covid cases never get into hospitals. Another aspect could be vaccinated people simply denying they may have gotten Covid...getting the help not in time-dying at home. 

Dr. John Campbell-he has often good info-may be unaware of his biases-often in a sort of tunnel vision. [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAqVAiPXbJc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAqVAiPXbJc Israel waning transmission protection-info under the 15 minutes video. And;

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUfqZlAAwOc[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUfqZlAAwOc US Delta 83% (again info under the video)

There are several good YouTube "vlogs" trying to get a realistic picture of this pandemic. 

DJ-My point with this scenario's is trying to get a realistic picture of how this health crisis is evolving. Some major worries;

-Decrease in testing

-Much to limited sequencing

-Limited reporting at vaccine escape/reinfections...both indicating vaccine/natural immunity=herd immunity-strategy may NOT be effective..

-Unclear info a.o. on Lambda, Gamma, Delta+ variants-there proberbly are other new variants somehow not yet in the news I get...

-Global reported cases may not be peaking yet-but they are at a (very) high level...if they would "explode" at this level we will be in a global hospital crisis within a week...

-No new ideas on strategies...ignoring facts by both governments and "experts"...suggesting this should be a "new normal" when that "new normal" is building up to an explosion...

DJ-Everything is moving towards a global health crisis much worse then we did see so far during this pandemic. The outcome-after the major crisis-with millions of deaths-may be a "global control state"...

In combination with climate collapse the outlook is bad. So enjoy the good things, moments, while you can ! Get ready for the storm...

-Music; Riders On The Storm-The Doors [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9o78-f2mIM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9o78-f2mIM  1970

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2021 at 10:54pm

DJ,

There is a propaganda-war on vaccines. [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/canada-gov-t-mailing-vaccine-propaganda-to-every-home[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/canada-gov-t-mailing-vaccine-propaganda-to-every-home HT may have a few points in this story; vaccines are never 100% safe...I do not know if "vaccines killed over 9,000 people in the US"...but with 338 million vaccinations it may be possible 9,000+ people in the US died from getting a vaccine...(this number may include people having a heartattack even before getting a vaccine, car accident after getting the vaccine...it may not mean the vaccine itself killed them...). 

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/safety-of-vaccines.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/safety-of-vaccines.html is mentioning the risks. In science there is discussion on safety [url]https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/files/2021/07/20210709-VaccineSafety_UoGuelph.pdf[/url] or https://www.wormsandgermsblog.com/files/2021/07/20210709-VaccineSafety_UoGuelph.pdf 

If the biggest risk for HT in vaccines is dying from it there is-given the numbers a 0,0003% (something-I need coffee !) chance. In general any sane person would have to call that "safe"...maybe info on risks does not get to those who do need to have that info...

Also long term risks may not be all that clear-but that point can be made for many products !

He may have by now a better point on "not effective"...There are limited chances of getting Covid after vaccinations. Info on that should be better...

In fact by now the "official story" for many people is "vaccines do prevent you (100%) for Covid" allthough Big Pharma never made that 100% claim...

Communications are complex. In this pandemic there are lots of "senders" and billions of "recievers"...If you remember the experiment you proberbly had in your classroom-a group of about 30-a not that complex story after 30 people has gotten a somewhat different story...

Governments need to better monitor what communications are doing. Communication is ESSENTIAL !!!!

HT has no problem with lying. This story-the way he brings it is incorrect ; [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/breaking-news-urgent-pcr-tests-to-be-withdrawn-unfit-to-diagnose-covid[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/breaking-news-urgent-pcr-tests-to-be-withdrawn-unfit-to-diagnose-covid "Fran" did not understand the (basic very simple) story-there are new PCR-tests that can check BOTH for Covid AND Flu ! (Very GOOD news !). The CDC wants to use that kind of PCR tests in 2022...HT translating it to "Covid was the Flu" is stupid non-sense ! It would also mean the Flu did get much more deadly and "ignores" flu-season...

Still in "(anti)social media" this piece of s..t will find its way...

More and more climate collapse deniers and pandemic deniers seem to become one anti-science group. Right wing "populist" types like BoJo, rutte (NL), bolsonaro, trump and "the like"  are gaining votes by "interacting" with deniers...More serious politicians-both left and right-seem to have a problem in how to deal with it...

Since living in a "democrazy" "we could have a vote on it"...Who wants to live in a pandemic ? NOBODY ! Who wants to live in a climate crisis ? NOBODY !...The tragic is populists get away with then claiming the problem is gone....

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table cases are going down ! "We have beaten the pandemic ! YEAH ! Party time ! Celebration ! Joy&kisses ! ...Well not so fast !

Since people are told that vaccination means they can not get Covid they will not test for it ! So testing is going down high speed...

Cases still increasing +3%, deaths +4% worldwide ! UK tested/reported cases may go down -4% (Dr. John Campbell would translate that to "proof vaccines are working" -unless you want vaccines stopping people from testing that conclusion is simply incorrect !). In the UK deaths +57%...This may indicate the opposite on vaccines...they may have "limited effect" on severity of disease...Very unwelcome news...but if it is a fact better realize that in time !

At least until recent Dr. John Campbell-and many others-claimed "the link between new cases and hospital cases was broken thanks to vaccines". It was much to early for such a claim ! Maybe Dr. John Campbell "needs to see "every cloud has a silver lining" but in a hurricane clouds do not have silver linings "! 

Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNbs4LCgrcY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wNbs4LCgrcY is taking Israeli info serious...He may no longer stick to the "hope" (at best) of vaccines breaking the link between cases and hospital cases...otherwise his info hardly would be better then the "garbage" Hal Turner often produces on Covid 19....

Why do I go on about this ? Communications are ESSENTIAL !!!!

What is the way out ? 

#1 STOP THE SPREAD !!!! If I was "in charge" (no ambitions !) that would mean-from NOW !-ALL TRAVEL would be stopped !!! Till at least 1-1-2022 !!!!

In the pandemic triangle Disease-Hosts-Spread=Transport, Transport may be the factor most easy to catch...

In practice you NEED food, medication-so a "full lockdown" till 1-1-2022 is impossible...Also people will try to "escape" from lock down...you have to stop that but there are limits (and sometimes good reasons for breaking a lock down-family violence may be one of them...)...never stop at least trying to be humane...

#2-A wild guess from me (DJ) is we need 2x the hospital capacity, 10x the testing and 100x the sequencing capacity we now have...We did not increase capacities here much during the pandemic....We should start doing that now !

#3 Better and more testing. We could learn from "door-to-door-testing" in China-mandatory ! But I do not like a stick in my nose. Breath-alyzers, chewing-gum testing may make testing acceptable for most...And yes-since this is a very serious crisis-refusing testing means you have to "stay in your house" (with police control) untill the worst of the pandemic is over...

#4 Better vaccines-nasal spray, micro-needles plaster, sugar-lumbs...Vaccine production under state-control-so NOT FOR PROFIT ! If you can get people to accept vaccines better, make vaccines easier and safer, more people may accept them. 

I am still against mandatory vaccines ! You "own" your body ! A state has to respect your decissions on it ! (Also-at present vaccines do no longer seem to offer the level of protection they claimed...) 

#5 To be able to get this draconian you need special-temporary laws. Taking away basic freedoms goes against the basic idea of liberty. So it is only acceptable in a very serious crisis and only during that crisis...Since I believe in "democracy" it would be welcome if such a temporary crisis law would get supported via a referendum, vote...At this moment it will not get much support-we have to "sink deeper" into this crisis...

Maybe my main point is YES we can do lots of things to get out of this crisis ! (I did not even mention Ivermectin-we may try that on volunteers-see how well it protects them...Door-to-door supplements distribution to boost immunity, TV/Internet info for the duration of the lock down...but maybe also monitoring "anti-social media"...).

If "normal vaccines and NPI" can not get the R0 of variants under 1 we need better vaccines AND more draconian restrictions ! 

The phantasy of herd immunity is a deadly illusion ! This corona-virus will keep mutating ! The disease is there-we are its hosts...so the only way out is stopping disease getting to the hosts...(before it finds non-human hosts on a major scale...).

Limited numbers...close to 500,000 new cases still reported yesterday-a high number for a weekend...Variants news may be even more limited...we did see 3 new Lambda cases in NL last week...(in GISAID they all were in one part of the country but reporting came from 3 NL area's...)...The time between new variants showing up and being reported is simply very long +2 weeks ? -things go much faster now...What is needed is "screening" high-speed sequencing...we are running behind the facts...

-Flutrackers latests-limited posts,

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920175-states-scale-back-virus-reporting-just-as-cases-surge[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920175-states-scale-back-virus-reporting-just-as-cases-surge ; Several states scaled back their reporting of COVID-19 statistics this month just as cases across the country started to skyrocket, depriving the public of real-time information on outbreaks, cases, hospitalizations and deaths in their communities.

The shift to weekly instead of daily reporting in Florida, Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota marked a notable shift during a pandemic in which coronavirus dashboards have become a staple for Americans closely tracking case counts and trends to navigate a crisis that has killed more than 600,000 people in the U.S.

In Nebraska, the state actually stopped reporting on the virus altogether for two weeks after Gov. Pete Ricketts declared an end to the official virus emergency, forcing news reporters to file public records requests or turn to national websites that track state data to learn about COVID statistics. The state backtracked two weeks later and came up with a weekly site that provides some basic numbers.

... “There was absolutely no reason to eliminate the daily updates beyond an effort to pretend like there are no updates,” said state Rep. Anna Eskamani, a Democrat from the Orlando area.

The trend of reducing data reporting has alarmed infectious disease specialists who believe that more information is better during a pandemic. ...

DJ-Some populist thugs claim "there is no pandemic-so there are no cases" - How can hospitals handle the influx confronted with this kind of stupidity ? Undertakers may need more workers...Criminal insane !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920174-hawaii-health-officials-see-rise-in-coronavirus-cases-in-children-amid-spike-in-numbers-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920174-hawaii-health-officials-see-rise-in-coronavirus-cases-in-children-amid-spike-in-numbers-coronavirus ; Health officials are seeing a steady increase in kids contracting COVID-19. Just this week there have been 188 cases involving kids 18 and under.

On Friday, 43 or the 233 cases were among children. Thursday saw the highest percentage, with keiki making up 27% of cases.

“We are seeing families who’ve traveled to the mainland,” said Dr. Janet Berreman, Kauai District Health officer. “Many of whom include adults who have not been vaccinated and who inadvertently bring the virus home and then infect other people who live in their household.”

... While health officials say COVID-19 in kids is usually mild compared to older adults, children can suffer from other long-term effects that can appear months after the infection.

“The other thing is that children and teenagers can develop what’s called long COVID,” said Dr. Berreman.

DJ-There have been lots of reports of young children on ICU...You should never-ever want a 2 year old on ICU...intubated ! NEVER !!!

Indonesia has been reporting an increase of Covid/Delta cases in children. Since vaccination is a problem also for adults in Indonesia it looks like Delta may hit harder in young age groups. Israel has "limited reports" on vaccinated children...but DJ-the picture seems to be children may become more ill in this pandemic then untill recent. 

Next sunday will be august 1-schools will restart often within a month. We need better monitoring, better plans...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/920173-antibody-response-after-a-third-dose-of-the-mrna-1273-sars-cov-2-vaccine-in-kidney-transplant-recipients-with-minimal-serologic-response-to-2-doses[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/920173-antibody-response-after-a-third-dose-of-the-mrna-1273-sars-cov-2-vaccine-in-kidney-transplant-recipients-with-minimal-serologic-response-to-2-doses ; Studies have reported low seroconversion rates (58% after the second dose) in solid organ transplant recipients who received a messenger RNA (mRNA) SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.1,2 Based on this evidence, the French National Authority for Health issued a recommendation in April 2021 to administer a third vaccine dose in immunosuppressed patients who did not respond after 2 doses. We examined the antibody responses of kidney transplant recipients who did not respond to 2 doses and received a third dose (100 μg) of the mRNA-1273 vaccine (Moderna).
...
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...m_medium=email

DJ-A third booster may offer some more protection for limited time...Vaccines are NOT the way out-at best offer protection against severe disease (while increasing asymptomatic spread and immune escape variants...).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/economics-in-the-pandemic/920170-global-supply-chains-buckle-as-virus-variant-and-disasters-strike[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/economics-in-the-pandemic/920170-global-supply-chains-buckle-as-virus-variant-and-disasters-strikeGiven ships transport around 90% of the world's trade, the crew crisis is disrupting the supply of everything from oil and iron ore to food and electronics.

German container line Hapag Lloyd (HLAG.DE)described the situation as "extremely challenging".

DJ We need governments to govern...the pandemic is part of a larger crisis. So far "neo liberalism"/"markets" only make matters worse ! If governments go on failing to see how serious the crises are-how can you expect the general public to act wisely ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated latest ; Table 5. Attendance to emergency care and deaths by vaccination status among all sequenced and genotyped Delta cases in
England from 1 February 2021 to 19 July 2021
...

Deaths within 28 days of
positive specimen date


All cases 460
...
<21 days post dose 1 5
≥21 days post dose 1 60
Received 2 doses 224
Unvaccinated 165

DJ This may be "unwelcome news" but get realistic !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920167-us-covid-19-weekly-deaths-forecast-graphs-through-august-14-july-21-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920167-us-covid-19-weekly-deaths-forecast-graphs-through-august-14-july-21-2021 ; A huge range.  DJ US deaths per week going up to 8,000 mid-august-now just between 1,800/1,900 per week. Cases going up to 620,000-660,000 per week. (This week 345,000-last week 235,000 +45% ).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; effectivity of BNT against infection or sympyomatic disease with delta

UK : 88% , new study , NEJM , 2021-07-20
Israel : 16%,44%,68%,77% if 2nd dose in Jan,Feb,Mar,Apr , data given 2021-07-23

so, does it wane ? We should have heard about that from UK,USA already with so much analysis and data,
but I remember only reports about small waning (20% in 6 months or such)

what else could be the reason for the Israel results ?

Israel goes for 3rd doses now.
UK probably too
USA also makes a shift towards 3rd doses, I read. Just a few weeks after FDA said that was not necessary.

-

50% fewer antibodies may reduce the effectivity by 5-10% , I estimate
remember also the big drop in effectivity against delta with 1 dose,
may that be because of the prolonged time between delta and administration ?
(usually 12 weeks between doses in UK)
and also the recent study about increased antibodies after a long interval between doses

DJ-Looking at trends for Israel deaths last week 11, this week 12-the numbers of deaths may be limited-the fact that an increasing number of them are in the fully vaccinated group should be alarming. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/920177-vietnam-locks-down-hanoi-for-15-days-as-covid-19-cases-rise[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/920177-vietnam-locks-down-hanoi-for-15-days-as-covid-19-cases-rise ; Vietnam announced a 15-day lockdown in the capital Hanoi starting Saturday as a coronavirus surge spread from the southern Mekong Delta region.

The lockdown order, issued late Friday night, bans the gathering of more than two people in public. Only government offices, hospitals and essential businesses are allowed to stay open.

Earlier in the week, the city had suspended all outdoor activities and ordered non-essential businesses to close following an increase in cases. On Friday, Hanoi reported 70 confirmed infections, the city's highest, part of a record 7,295 cases in the country in the last 24 hours.

DJ Vietnam has a population of 98,3 million-most western countries have much higher cases on a much smaller population ! And in fact hardly react on increases...Australia also is taking the limited outbreak much more serious then most other western countries...why ? 

-Dr. John Campbell [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JccyYEWfWLw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JccyYEWfWLw ; Viral load x1,200

China, all 167 infections traced back to the first index case N = 126 Daily sequential PCR testing of the quarantined subjects Viral load, more than1000 times higher than that of the 19A/19B

Suggesting the potential faster viral replication rate and more infectiousness of the Delta variant at the early stage of the infection.

Disease control measures, including the frequency of population testing, quarantine in pre-symptomatic phase and enhancing the genetic surveillance should be adjusted to account for the increasing prevalence of the Delta variant at global level. 

Intra-family transmissions Incubation period, 2020, 19A/19B strains Exposure to first PCR positive, 6 days (IQR 5.00-8.00) days in the 2020 epidemic 

Incubation period, 2021 4 days (IQR 3.00-5.00) (DJ !!!!!!)

Relative viral loads, 2020, 19A/19B (When SAS-CoV-2 viruses were firstly detected in hosts) Ct value 34.31 (IQR 31.00~36.00) 

Relative viral loads, 2021 Ct value 24.00 (IQR 19.00~29.00) 

Delta variant infections,1260 times higher than the 19A/19B strains infections  

These data highlight that the Delta variant could be more infectious during the early stage of the infection. Delta variant, exposure to the detection of viruses peaks at ~3.7 days 

DJ Good info; much higher viral load causes more severe disease and increased viral spread resulting in R0 between 5 and 8. In China testing can be mandatory to get a grip on the outbreak. I am against the present testing methods becoming mandatory-but less invasive tests (via breath, "chewing gum") getting mandatory-and increased-to get a grip on the outbreak should be acceptable. In the Tokyo-Olympics Insanity testing is done more then training...

Music-[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqukokk0WzA[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pqukokk0WzA I Don't Believe In Miracles - America....


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2021 at 9:58pm

DJ,

-numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Yesterday-sunday july 25 global cases close to 430,000 reported, deaths 6,868...India, Indonesia at #1,#2 with close to 40,000 new cases, UK at #3 with almost 30,000 new cases reported. 

New deaths-Indonesia-sadly-at #1 with 1,266 "new" deaths, Russia 779 at #2, Brazil #3 with 499 tested/reported deaths, India 411 and Mexico 362 make the top 5. 

The US is at #25 for "new" deaths with 49 deaths reported, the UK at #33 with 28 deaths...

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases -1%, deaths +3%...

DJ-If in reality cases would be going down that would be very welcome. But testing is going down, reporting is going down, asymptomatic cases-in vaccinated people still spreading the virus-is going up...

-Countries manipulate numbers (in the US Florida releases "statistics" once a week on Friday...)

-Governments "try to limit testing" -no symptoms=no tests

-Vaccinated people think they can not get Covid...

The outcome is statistics were not that good and are getting even worse...You need these statistics to see where we are going...Proberbly the number of deaths is less easy to manipulate...still the real number of deaths so far may be 10x+ the official numbers...

A smoke screen to hide the unfolding disaster...

On variants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 -or for that matter [url]https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covid-19/virus-sars-cov-2/variants[/url] or https://www.rivm.nl/en/coronavirus-covid-19/virus-sars-cov-2/variants (mentioning B.1.616 French variant) it is a jungle...

The Delta variant is becoming dominant worldwide...but what about the Delta+ variant ? Lamba, Gamma variants ? [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ may give a hint...

DJ-I think that even the best experts may get lost in this jungle...

-Global testing was bad and is getting worse

-Sequencing/screening "terrible" maybe now even under 1% of the limited tested cases..(we simply may have no idea...)

-Detecting new variants, mutations in excisting variants may be "very limited and much to slow"...

The Delta variant is spreading high speed-between infection and spread it may be 3 days..in older variants it was 5 to 6 days...So if sequencing and reporting still may take up to two weeks the results are old-you may find out what "car hit you last week" while the goal was to prevent the accident...

My view is most governments are in denial of how serious the crisis is. Macron in France wants mandatory vaccines for some groups-but is keeping air travel going...

On twitter [url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD -if you do not control Delta R0 between 5 and 8-the next step most likely will be a variant with a R0 of 12..."out of control"...

With vaccines, masks, social distance etc.-STOP Air TRAVEL , MASS EVENTS !!!-we may be able to get Delta R0 close to 1...DJ-but we are not doing that...still try to sell vaccines as "the answer" and ignoring the rest/NPI...

We have "radar" to detect new-worse-variants (sequencing/screening) but we are NOT using it...

Can it get worse ? Hal Turner may have a point (trying to raise an income from his website) in [url]https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4959492/[/url] or https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4959492/Indoor airborne fungi

DJ Will long Covid patients be more vulnarable for new variants ? YES-like other people with chronic illness long covid  can bring diabetes, hearth/lung problems, brain damage...why would that fast growing group of people-worldwide +100,000 per day ???-NOT be more vulnarable ? 

Fungul infections already were a known problem-can fungul spores spread airborne ? YES...

DJ- I need good news now ! [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RWGh19yTXw[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5RWGh19yTXw MedCram with info on vaccines and natural immunity...After Covid you will get reasonable protection with one vaccination against Delta...DJ-Allthough most new hospital cases in the western world will be fully vaccinated vaccines still offer a lot of protection...in combination with masks, social distance etc-for now...

What to expect the coming weeks ? Governments try to keep the number of new reported cases down with all the trics they can think of..."technical problems", reducing testing facilities..., selecting groups that get tested-so yes "even with a high level of testing we see reduction of cases" (=including testing in the over 80y/o not included earlier...). 

Again-the basic problem is "politics"..."economy first"....A basic idea "there can be no pandemic in the 21st century"...denialism...But even then in general cases may go up that fast "lying via statistics" is getting hard ! Hospital cases, deaths are allready going up...

Results soon will be trust is gone...

-Flutrackers-very limited new posts;

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/920190-mrna-vaccine-induced-antibodies-more-effective-than-natural-immunity-in-neutralizing-sars-cov-2-and-its-high-affinity-variants-preprint[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/vaccines-aa/920190-mrna-vaccine-induced-antibodies-more-effective-than-natural-immunity-in-neutralizing-sars-cov-2-and-its-high-affinity-variants-preprint ; In this study, we developed both antibody quantification and functional assays. Analyses of both COVID-19 convalescent and diagnostic cohorts strongly support the use of RBD antibody levels as an excellent surrogate to biochemical neutralization activities. 

Data further revealed that the samples from mRNA vaccinated individuals had a median of 17 times higher RBD antibody levels and a similar degree of increased neutralization activities against RBD-ACE2 binding than those from natural infections. 

Our data showed that N501Y RBD had 5-fold higher ACE2 binding than the original variant. While antisera from naturally infected subjects had substantially reduced neutralization ability against N501Y RBD, all blood samples from vaccinated individuals were highly effective in neutralizing it. 

Thus, our data indicates that mRNA vaccination is far more effective than natural immunity in generating highly effective neutralizing antibodies. It further suggests a potential need to maintain high RBD antibody levels to control the more infectious SARS-CoV-2 variants.

DJ I am fully vaccinated. Can my blood plasma help in the recovery of Covid patients ? Do I get that right ? (I am NOT an expert-just trying to "follow the story"...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/schools-public-private/920189-sparked-by-pandemic-fallout-homeschooling-surges-across-us[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/schools-public-private/920189-sparked-by-pandemic-fallout-homeschooling-surges-across-usThe common denominator: They tried homeschooling on what they thought was a temporary basis and found it beneficial to their children.

... The surge has been confirmed by the U.S. Census Bureau, which reported in March that the rate of households homeschooling their children rose to 11% by September 2020, more than doubling from 5.4% just six months earlier.

DJ-"Schools" soon will be a "hot item" again...The Delta variant is hitting hard in young age groups-both short term-more severe disease from Covid and long term Kawasaki/MIS-C (Multi Inflamatory Syndrom in Children-but it also can show up in adults...an overreaction of the immune system often showing up weeks after infection. Often the initial disease traces are allready gone...).

Should schools reopen in august/september ? DJ-NO !!! Will they reopen ? Yes-proberbly...making matters even worse...If you can work/study from home should you do that YES !!! STOP THE SPREAD !!!

We should have been reorganizing society to deal with long term pandemic-but we wasted time...went partying, vacations...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/917728-uk-more-than-50-of-deaths-from-delta-variant-are-in-the-vaccinated latest; As cases are rising, hospitalisations and deaths are rising too, but not at anywhere near the same level as they were in the winter. In the second half of December 2020 – a time when UK case rates were similar to what they are now – about 3,800 people were being admitted to hospital with COVID each day. The average now is around 700. So though that’s still higher than we wish it was, it’s a lot lower than it was the last time we had this many infections.
...
COVID is also growing among the vaccinated because the number of people in the UK who have had both doses is continuing to rise. At the time of writing, 88% of UK adults have had a first dose and 69% a second. As more and more of the population is vaccinated, the relative proportion of those with COVID who have had both jabs will rise.
...
We also need to remember that the vaccine rollout in the UK has systematically targeted people at the highest risk from COVID. Older people and people with health conditions that make them more vulnerable were the first to get vaccinated. Once vaccinated, these people (including me) are at much lower risk from COVID than they would have been otherwise – but they are still at risk.

That means that when we compare people with both vaccinations being hospitalised to those who haven’t had both doses, we aren’t comparing like with like. People with both vaccinations are more likely to have been at greater risk from COVID in the first place. This makes them both more likely to be hospitalised and more likely to have already received both of their vaccine doses.
...
We don’t have clear estimates yet from Public Health England on the level of protection against death caused by the delta variant – fortunately, this is partly driven by the fact deaths have been relatively low during this third wave in the UK.

DJ-Yes vaccines do a great job ! But the idea we can reopen because of vaccines is beyond stupid...Vaccines is one step forward-reopening is two steps backward...Also-for now !- vaccines are still doing a great job. But the problem is the virus/variants are that widespread and mutating that fast a variant with a R0 of 12 (!!!!) is on its way...Delta is R0 5-8....

We should be doing all we can-and more- to STOP THE SPREAD...but-again...we are not doing it...It did not have to be this way..etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/920182-uk-preprint-pitch-study-%E2%80%93-antibody-cellular-immune-responses-after-two-different-dosing-schedules-of-the-pfizer-vaccine[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/920182-uk-preprint-pitch-study-%E2%80%93-antibody-cellular-immune-responses-after-two-different-dosing-schedules-of-the-pfizer-vaccine ; One of the reasons why - despite any personal misgivings I might have - I try not to be overly critical of governments and agencies which adopt non-standard approaches (within in reason, of course) to dealing with this pandemic (or any crisis) is that - if everyone follows exactly the same `book' - we may end up overlooking a not-so-obvious better course of action.

-

This isn't the first time the UK has adopted a contrarian approach to the pandemic, and today we may have evidence that one of their earlier decisions - to delay giving the second (booster) shot of the mRNA vaccine until after 8 or 12 weeks, instead of the recommended 3 to 4 - may have produced a better, and longer lasting, immune response.


Their goal was to get as many people partially protected, in as short of time as possible. And when that decision was made (in late 2020), 1 dose of the vaccine appeared to be nearly as effective as being fully vaccinated against the current (Alpha) strain.


As the Delta variant emerged, and became dominant, it became apparent that 1 dose of the vaccine was far less protective, but the UK was already well into delivering booster shots by that time.

Late this week, Israel - which has one of the earliest, and most highly vaccinated populations - announced very low (41%) protection against symptomatic infection by the Delta Variant from the Pfizer vaccine, which is in stark contrast to what the UK has reported (88%).

-

Quite notably, Israel originally reported a 90% protection against symptomatic disease, but over the past 6 months, that protection has waned rapidly, with people who received their vaccine in January now estimated to have just 16% protection, while in those vaccinated in April are around 75%.


While there may be other confounders at work, the most obvious difference between the vaccination campaigns in Israel and the UK (and most other countries using Pfizer, including the United States) is the duration between the receipt of the first and second shot; with most countries following the manufacturer's recommended 3-4 week interval.

While data is still emerging, on Friday the UK published a preprint on their "Protective Immunity from T cells to Covid-19 in Health workers" (PITCH) multi-university study, which suggests the longer interval between the first and second mRNA shot increases its effectiveness two-fold.


How long that advantage might last is unknown, but the numbers (so far) are impressive.

-

We'll need to see if these trends are confirmed in other countries - including the United States - before we can say with any certainty, but if this research holds up, it may signal the need for a third `booster' shot in some countries sooner than many had hoped.


While controversial at the time, the UK's decision to space out their 1st and 2nd vaccine shots may have led us to an important discovery. Time will tell.

-

If this data holds up (still an `if', as it is based on a small cohort of 503 HCWs) then it suggests the call for fully vaccinated people to continue to wear face masks indoors is well worth heeding, as vaccination protection against symptomatic infection diminishes over time.


So far, the news remains positive regarding the vaccine's protection against severe illness, hospitalization, and death, regardless of the the dosing interval.

Which is why I'm thankful to have both shots, even if their protection isn't 100%.

DJ The big difference between UK and Israel vaccinations was the time gap between the first and second vaccination. A wider gap (12 weeks) may bring better protection after the second vaccine (+2 a 3 weeks to build immunity-the body has to proces the vaccine ! The older you are the longer that proces may take...also older people have a less effective immunity system. But maybe supplements-vitamins (etc..melatonin may show some anti viral use-and provide better sleep !) can bridge that gap). 

Conclusions; 

-Variants are "under the radar" it is now getting very urgent to detect variants/mutations..sequencing/better is screening 24/7 "work-till-you-drop crisis".  We need to detect new variants with increased risks as fast as possible and stop them !!!

-We can still stop this pandemic but only if we combine vaccines with NPI-STOP THE SPREAD !!!!!!!!

-In many countries there are more people willing to get vaccinated then there are vaccines...discussion on mandatory vaccines is a waste of time and energy ! Vaccinate those that want to be vaccinated high speed ! Worldwide ! Stop wasting time on endless discussions !

-In many countries there is also discussion on "vaccinated only" for matches, restaurants, travel etc...DJ-For me it is simple ! With Delta still spreading and getting worse, new variants even worse...there is no room for restaurants, travel etc...not even for the vaccinated....

-The goal has to be to END Covid19 ! Not to "accept" it..because corona virusses are uncontrolable...there is no "herd immunity"!

-Going for "herd immunity" will most likely result in much worse variants, increase of all other kinds of diseases/infections...massive deaths....and then trying to get a grip on it...

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/america-only-one-step-away-south-african-style-social-implosion[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/america-only-one-step-away-south-african-style-social-implosion Step 2 in a pandemic-after healthcare collapse=step 1, collapse of logistics/security...step 3 is collapse of government...failed state...It can get a lot worse ! 

-A lot of "leaders" simply seem to be unable to understand how bad it can get...(DJ-Reminds me of hitler in april 45-trying to send non-existing armies to non-existing front lines...Simply not getting it..it was over...).

-Communications all during this pandemic have been between "awfull and terrible" (are people paid for this ?)...[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/fauci-says-new-mask-guidelines-vaccinated-americans-under-active-consideration-amid-delta[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/fauci-says-new-mask-guidelines-vaccinated-americans-under-active-consideration-amid-delta YES We need to start using masks again...but how can you get that news out if you have been telling so much crap earlier ? 

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/move-over-covid-drug-resistant-super-bug-fungus-now-being-reported-texas-and-washington-dc[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/move-over-covid-drug-resistant-super-bug-fungus-now-being-reported-texas-and-washington-dc  Co-infections will increase...

- Summer was supposed to see reduction in cases...it may have been there ! Autumn/fall is just a month away ! Wake up !

Music-What we need is a lot of Hocus Pocus-magic-Focus [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4ouPGGLI6Q[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4ouPGGLI6Q 1973-I love the lyrics !  

No drugs were harmed during the making of this video



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We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 26 2021 at 4:21am

DJ, 

I am trying to imagine what this Covid-19 pandemic would look like with variants R0 10+ level....

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/daily-rate-of-positive-covid-tests-goes-above-2-for-first-time-since-march/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/daily-rate-of-positive-covid-tests-goes-above-2-for-first-time-since-march/ ;

The daily rate of positive COVID-19 tests in Israel has risen above 2 percent for the first time since March, according to Health Ministry data published Monday morning.

There were 1,398 new cases identified Sunday among 67,676 tests, a positivity rate of some 2.07%. Additionally, 506 cases were diagnosed between midnight and 10 a.m. Monday.

This brought the number of active cases to 11,606, after the figure was around 200 less than six weeks ago.


The number of serious cases rose to 108, of whom 25 were listed as in critical condition.

-

Prof. Galia Rahav, director of the infectious diseases unit at Sheba Medical Center, told the Kan public broadcaster that the rise in serious cases — they reached a low of 19 last month — was concerning and required action.

“We need to convince the unvaccinated to get vaccinated,” she said. “If we reach herd immunity, we will avoid lockdowns in the future.”

The number of COVID patients in serious condition has doubled in just the past 10 days, but is still a fraction of the peak seen during the third wave, in January, when there were more than 1,200 serious cases. During the second wave in the fall, serious cases hit a peak of 850 in October.

-

Hebrew media reported that among the recent cases, 12 were of the so-called Delta Plus variant, a further mutation of the ultra-infectious Delta strain. Most of those cases were among returnees from Georgia, and there were reportedly indications that there was more than one infection chain.

Health authorities still don’t know whether the variant is more infectious or dangerous than the Delta variant.


DJ Delta is R0 between 5 and 8, Delta+ is believed to be increasing in India. Suggesting natural immunity may not be strong and/or widespread enough in India. 

[url]https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420[/url] or https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57431420 ;

It is clear we are now dealing with a virus that spreads far more easily - probably more than twice as easily - as the version that emerged in Wuhan at the end of 2019.

The Alpha variant, first identified in Kent, UK, performed a large jump in its ability to transmit. Now Delta, seen first in India, leapt further still.

This is evolution in action.

So are we doomed to a never-ending parade of new and improved variants that get harder and harder to contain? Or is there a limit to how much worse coronavirus can become?

It's worth remembering the journey this virus is on. It has made the jump from infecting a completely different species - its closest relatives are in bats - to us. It's like you, starting a new job: you're competent, but not the finished article. The first variant was good enough to start a devastating pandemic, but now it's learning on the job.

When viruses jump to humans it would be "very rare for them to be perfect," said Prof Wendy Barclay, a virologist from Imperial College London. "They settle in and then they have a great time."


There are examples of viruses, she said, from flu pandemics to Ebola outbreaks, making the jump and then accelerating.

So how far could it go?

The cleanest way of comparing the pure biological spreading power of viruses is to look at their R0 (pronounced R-naught). It's the average number of people each infected person passes a virus on to if nobody were immune and nobody took extra precautions to avoid getting infected.

That number was around 2.5 when the pandemic started in Wuhan and could be as high as 8.0 for the Delta variant, according to disease modellers at Imperial.


"This virus has surprised us a lot. It is beyond anything we feared," said Dr Aris Katzourakis, who studies viral evolution at the University of Oxford. "The fact it has happened twice in 18 months, two lineages (Alpha and then Delta) each 50% more transmissible is a phenomenal amount of change."

It's "foolish", he thinks, to attempt to put a number on how high it could go, but he can easily see further jumps in transmission over the next couple of years. Other viruses have far higher R0s and the record holder, measles, can cause explosive outbreaks.


"There is still space for it to move higher," said Prof Barclay. "Measles is between 14 and 30 depending on who you ask, I don't know how it's going to play out."

So, how are the variants doing it?

There are many tricks the virus could employ to get better at spreading, such as:

  • improving how it opens the doorway to our body's cells
  • surviving longer in the air
  • increasing the viral load so patients breathe or cough out more viruses
  • changing when in the course of an infection it spreads to another person

One way the Alpha variant became more transmissible was by getting better at sneaking past the intruder alarm - called the interferon response - inside our body's cells. But this does not mean that by the time we work through the Greek alphabet of variants and reach Omega that we'll end up with an unstoppable beast.

"Ultimately there are limits and there isn't a super-ultimate virus that has every bad combination of mutations," said Dr Katzourakis.

DJ-Alpha started around september last year in the UK, Delta april this year in India-to get wide spread...It may be optimistic to claim 50% more infectious variants showed up in 18 months...the proces could be going much faster...with 50% increase-early variant R0=2,5 +50%=R0 3,75 for Alpha +50% would bring Delta to 5,625...(between 5 and 8 depending on circumstances). 

Also-as far as I understand it-R0 may go up if variants start spreading large scale in non human (wild) hosts...

[url]https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article[/url] or https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article ;

Abstract

The basic reproduction number (R0), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and, therefore, is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models, which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied.


R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns. R0 is rarely measured directly, and modeled R0 values are dependent on model structures and assumptions. Some R0 values reported in the scientific literature are likely obsolete. R0 must be estimated, reported, and applied with great caution because this basic metric is far from simple.

DJ The same disease may have a different R0 under different circumstances. So it is not an absolute number. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_measles[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_measles  has a high R0 (between 6 and 200 or so I ) 

Big difference between measles and Covid is measles infection gives live long immunity-vaccines are also very effective. (And measles does not have major mutations ? I guess ?)

What I do understand ([url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD and [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing ) is new variants of Covid19 with R0=10+ are "very likely" (DJ-and may be developing in very limited numbers allready). 

An R0 of 8 may be the limit we can control with 60% fully vaccinated and NPI...So above that we need (much) higher vaccination protection AND stricter NPI (proberbly for a longer time including booster shots...)...

Since we have not yet vaccinated all those that want to get vaccinated-even in most western countries vaccinating the "willing" should be priority. And of course we should be STOPPING THE SPREAD....but we do not....

If some variants get widespread in non-human hosts-still causing major illness in humans-we may have to try to "limit non-human hosts spread-via vaccinnes/"culling"..

DJ-We have a limited chance now to at least try to limit this pandemic (but we are not doing that !) - very likely within months "we have to find out" "living with the virus" was a big mistake !

We are NOT getting herd immunity ! Vaccines do not "save" us-are limited ! (DJ-The way I understand this story-please correct me if I get it wrong !) Vaccines may be getting close to useless...we may see a resistent variant-simply evading both natural and vaccine immunity-able to reinfect over and over again !

We CAN stop that now ! We SHOULD stop that now !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 26 2021 at 9:46pm

Lots of activity again on this forum. Good to see this forum has a function, the reason for that of course is bad-we may be entering a further worsening phase of this-ever lasting-pandemic. 

DJ,

-A look at the numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ;

Global almost 447,000 new cases, 7,404 deaths...with lots of countries now trying to limit the numbers-not the cases...

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table cases +1%, deaths +4%...If these numbers included hospital cases it proberbly would be closer to the "deaths-statistics", testing proberbly going down world wide "since when you are vaccinated you do not get the virus"-non-sense claims...more or less often spread by "governments"..

Vaccinations-still-offer protection but also result in more asymptomatic spread and immunity escape...A combination of vaccinations AND NPI/lockdown could be effective...vaccines AND reopening make matters worse-not better...

A look at a few countries...

UK yesterday reporting limited sunday testing; still almost 25,000 new cases, 14 deaths-and if there were no vaccines the number of deaths-from this Delta variant-would be in the hundreds...lets keep that in mind !!!!

UK trends -21% for cases, +50% for deaths...If "governments" were not manipulating statistics that ratio would mean we would be getting closer to an end of the UK wave...It would be wise to increase both testing and sequencing...but more testing-specially in vaccinated-ad random-to detect the level of a-symptomatic numbers-would result in more cases...

UK "politics" does not want "more cases" showing up in statistics...even when this means "undetected spread & increase of death"...

In a Brittish Medical Journal reflection on BoJo (&Co) UK "strategy on Covid19" is centered on BoJo's image...A new Nero ! 

A look at Israel statistics; cases 2,065 and 1 death for sunday-trends cases +48%, deaths -8% last week 12, this week 11. These numbers suggest less manipulating...In Times of Israel also 12 Delta+ cases in the last week were reported...

Again-without vaccines the picture would be far more problematic-but still a lot of severe cases in fully vaccinated people in Israel. 

It would be interesting to have more statistics on new variants...both Delta+ and Lambda may be increasing...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variantAs of 15 July 2021, the AY.3 variant accounted for approximately 21% of cases in the United States.

DJ Delta and Delta+ are treated as "the same variant" while Delta+ is replacing Delta in India....(you also have AY.1 and AY.2 variants of Delta+.....)

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_varianthas spread to at least 30 countries[3] around the world and may be more resistant to COVID-19 vaccines compared to other strains.[4][5] It is also suggested that the Lambda variant is more infectious than the Alpha or Gamma variant.[4]

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Lambda_variant#Statistics  and  [url]https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/[/url] or https://www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/ 

US july 15 was 705 detections of Lambda, latest GISAID report 754, Germany 101/95 (so some reports were incorrect ???) , Spain 76/88, NL 2/6  last week 4 new detections in NL ? , Denmark 5/6, Ireland detected the first 3 Lambda cases recently...Belgium 2/7

So YES based on these statistics Lambda is increasing both in North America and Europe...Israel did detect 25 total number-but 0 in the last 4 weeks. 

Ecuador had 53 new Lambda variant detections in the last 4 weeks but in trends cases -44%, deaths -54%...

The Lambda variant had as mutation deletion of some segments...due to that kind of mutations-(what I make of it-as a non-expert);

1 Immunity may be less able to recognize this variant=better immune evasion

2 This variant may become better in aerosol spread-less segments is lighter...proberbly...

The overall trend is Delta R0 between 5 and 8...a mix of vaccines AND NPI may be able to get some grip...New variants very likely to see a further increase in R0...This-in my non-expert view-will translate into;

More aerosol spread...long distance...(You do not have any idea where the "bullet" came from)...

Much higher infectionlevel (forget about 2 meter distance, average masks....)

It may bring us closer to "non-human hosts" getting infected. If the virus is getting both lighter and more infectious it will spread further. So more non human hosts will get in contact with it...

So if Delta has an R0 of 5 to 8 (a relative number, 8 may be without much restrictions, vaccines) and new waves are started by a 50% increase-on average-of the R0-next step may be R0 of 12, the step after that R0 of 18...and maybe by that time spread via non human hosts...(resulting in step 3 R0 of 27 ?) ...

This kind of "doom scenario's" is just me thinking, trying to make some sense, getting an idea of what to expect...

STOP THE SPREAD !!!! Is only getting MORE urgent by every minute...

End of part 1, in part 2 I will take a look at twitter/flutracker etc...Also trying to "balance" my "idea's"...how realistic is it...? Can vaccines be developed that may still show limiting effects ? My impression is that China could be going for mass vaccination-booster shots...

What did not get the main western "news" is China did seem able to vaccinate more then a billion people in just a few months...

Another question I have is Ivermectin etc. If we can prevent/treat/limit Covid via medication we still may be able to get some sort of "grip"...

Stay safe !


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 27 2021 at 1:44am

DJ, 

In part 1 I tried to get a realistic view of where we are at present, in this part some idea's of where we may be going;

-An OPTIMISTIC scenario-within limits of realism. Vaccines do show good protection against severe disease/death. It may not be perfect-it may not stay perfect-booster vaccins !- but vaccines DO matter !!!

Worldwide vaccinations are going up. The US may be the only country with more vaccines "then arms"...In NL numbers-proberbly valid for many countries-80%+ of the population is willing to accept vaccines...About 10/15% will not. And over 50% of the vaccinated will "stay away" from unvaccinated the best they can...

From a "social" point of view that "selection on vaccination status" is a problem. Hopefully a short term issue. From pandemic point of view it may further limit the spread of variants...

Yes vaccines offer good protection against severe disease-I think the protection against spread may be less-but also still a factor. 

China did vaccinate over a billion people in two/three months ! Maybe Chinese vaccines may not be the best-they are using 5 different ones-may be working on better ones-the basic point is those vaccines are there ! Not a promise, not on transport but in people-improving immunity ! 

India may not be on top of the list in vaccinations-but they also have "vaccine capacity"....We can not "vaccinate" ourselves out of this pandemic but the outlook without (leaky-far from perfect) vaccines would be much worse. Hospital cases would be much higher, long covid would be even a bigger problem, deaths would increase...

What is going wrong is that we did not combine-YET !- vaccines with NPI. But there is a growing awareness that with Delta, Delta+, Lambda growing in North America, Europe, vaccines are not enough. 

So-in the best optimistic scenario I can think of-restrictions and vaccinations may be able to have a lot of results. A lot of people do not wait for governments to "act in a usefull way" but do isolate, protect themselves and others. And it does make a difference !!!

- [url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD Is making some points a.o.;

We did not vaccinate children

Exponential growth of cases may bring us over ICU capacity in just a few steps...(and I think G.G. means ICU capacity at limits end of july/early august). 

Some countries report a decrease of cases. Possible reasons-less testing-since vaccination=no infection=no need for testing and in many countries schools are closed. Some may even bring in "summer"...might play some role...

The "optimistic scenario" may be giving a picture what we COULD do-but some countries simply do not want to do...

I think Australia, Iceland, Israel may be going for more restrictions, masks, increase of vaccinations in younger age groups. And that may bring them somewhat closer to an optimistic scenario. Vietnam, maybe Thailand (do not know enough of it...), Ireland some more remote/less tourism regions may be able via vaccines/restrictions to get a grip on this pandemic-for now. 

A lot of countries may not be doing enough...some countries fail...some US states, UK, NL...In those "best prepared-2019" countries even masks are often not used...denialism all over. 

-A "less optimistic scenario"...[url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing

How many kids must be hospital-ized— before we call 

 insane? BladmuziekTell me how many kids must be scarred for life, before 

 is forever banned? Pijl naar rechtsThe answer my friend, is way too damn many, way to damn late, the answer is way too sad. 

DJ Since vaccinations are often limited at under 30 y/o age groups-governments claim "party-time" (and then run away for those claims...even refusing to take responsibility for "freedom"...always blaming others...China, unvaccinated, what is next BoJo blaming babies for not getting a vaccine ?)

In the southern US-with limited vaccinations cases going up, in the UK-BoJo&Co [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream latest; reported cases -21,5%, testing -10,1% both vacation-related proberbly...and also "vaccinating=not getting tested...even with health issues...(In NL child ICU is full of RSV in children...they may not even be tested for Covid "since children do not get COVID-"religion"...). UK hospital cases +26,8%, deaths +50,3% ...(In NL also hospital cases/ICU cases going up-wich will result in increase of deaths...our "government" "claims" "real cases" are going down...we may soon find out this was just another self-illusion by P(roble)M rutte & Co...just another lie..on top of so many others...it may still bring in votes for his "leadership"... : ( ...

So in the "less governed " countries new variant get all the room to spread...with the top 3 (US,UK,NL) making matters even worse...trying to increase travel "freedom", decreasing testing/reporting...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest-even vaccinated get infected with Delta variant-if there is enough variant spread...

The "not so optimistic scenario" will soon see ICU/hospitals at capacity limits...resulting in more deaths, long covid etc....

-The "bad scenario" is for those countries "we keep poor", good enough to start a war in, but refugees can die in desert or sea-we want your resources, not your people...

And in exchange for some vaccines we will get resources, UN votes, "investments/take overs". The west gives lots of vaccines they do not want, Russia, China, India may offer affordable vaccines...and may be able to offer an overload of them soon. Also Ivermectin, other cheap treatments may see use there. So far with limited results...(DJ If Ivermectin was the "wonderdrug" it would be used more often...it could be effective in the right dosage for the right patient but you need enough doctors to find out the right doses...). 

India may have already seen 4 to 5 million deaths...Brazil in reality proberbly also over 1 million...Several Latin American, African, South Asian countries may also see the real number of deaths getting over 1 million...the "official statistics" are "nice lies"....

To keep China out of Africa, Latin America the "west" will react when Chinese (Russian, Cuban) medical teams show up. 

The sad reality is that "not so good" countries are transporting variants all over the globe for free...Poor countries have no defenses...

-DJ Like in groups-small scale-vaccinated people avoid unvaccinated-on a global scale "good scenario" countries will have to close their borders to keep the "bad countries" out...

New Zealand will have perspectives if they keep the doors closed ! They may need to get vaccinations as best as possible-since one day some variant will get in. New variants may escape even testing...

Australia is doing a lot to get the Delta variant under control and out ! Not a R0 of under 1 but "0"! China may be going for that same goal, like Iceland...Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan...

The "bad countries" soon-in august-may face an explosive crisis. Certainly US,UK,NL have all the seeds for a major socio-political-economic collapse...What is the point of having a government that is killing its people ? The clear answer may be that a "killing government" is the main problem...Let me be clear-Russia, Iran may belong to "bad countries" if they do not get trust from their population...Even China may face a crisis if the government fails to contain the pandemic !

For that matter-North Korea dictatorship has its limits as well...a major outbreak, starvation, despair may be the end of the Kim-dynasty...All governments face a permanent balancing act...

-Since Dr. John Campbell is also trying to get some perspectives-even able to see through "UK/NL cases going down" (wishfull thinking does not always stop him from reality...);

First sustained drop not coincided with a national lockdown Prof Paul Hunter, University of East Anglia 

The data at present is looking good for at least the summer Today's figures do not of course include any impact of last Monday's end of restrictions. It will not be until about next Friday before the data includes the impact of this change (Netherlands and Spain, reopening of nightclubs followed by a sharp rise in infections) 

Causes of decline Football related in Scotland Good weather Schools summer holidays 92% of adults in the UK have antibodies 

UK, 8 million adults with no vaccination Most children under 18 Risk of immune escape https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-579... 

Dr Aris Katzourakis, Viral Evolution, University of Oxford We are probably at the evolutionary high point, at the worst combination for an escape to happen in the UK 

The UK is in a prone position, whether it will happen we don't know, but it's more likely to happen here, now, than ever before Numbers game, large scale immunity reduces viral numbers 

One in 80 infected Escape mutations would be immensely beneficial to the virus  

If we compromise the incredible vaccines we have now I don't even want to contemplate what that world would look like   

Delta variant, is better at causing reinfection as well as evading vaccine immunity  

Beta is worst so far, but vaccines are still protecting against most hospitalisations  

DJ Dr.J.C. seems to find it hard to see the limits of vaccines...the need for vaccines AND NPI...Lots of experts do expect that not enough restrictions and limited vaccinations mixed with an increase of cases will result in newer more infectious variants...Dr.J.C. is also mentioning the US...Fauci/Delta variant increasing...but "we know that story" by now...

Dr.J.C. may choose to ignore stories like [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/920256-sage-adviser-claims-ministers-trying-to-get-as-many-as-possible-infected-with-covid[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/920256-sage-adviser-claims-ministers-trying-to-get-as-many-as-possible-infected-with-covid ; “What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible, while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.

“It looks like the government judges that the damage to health and healthcare services will be worth the political capital it will gain from this approach,” West said, adding that ministers appear to believe the strategy is now sustainable – unlike last year – because of the vaccine rollout. .

DJ A brutal mix of evil and stupidity...of course the "government" will blame the young people...

-Music; California Dreamin-Carpenters version...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxpMkMmGkTE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxpMkMmGkTE 



We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 27 2021 at 9:58pm

DJ, 

-[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/vaccine-expert-gives-final-warning-stop-all-mass-covid-vaccinations-immediately-or-face-unleashing-incurable-deadly-unstoppable-wave-of-disease[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/vaccine-expert-gives-final-warning-stop-all-mass-covid-vaccinations-immediately-or-face-unleashing-incurable-deadly-unstoppable-wave-of-disease ; Due to widespread immune selection pressure combined with a high viral infection rate and more frequent contacts between healthy vaccinated and non-vaccinated people, more infectious immune escape variants will now rapidly further evolve to fully escape VMI  (DJ-Vaccine Mediated Immunity) while expanding in prevalence. This is to say that new immune escape variants that can no longer be eliminated by any kind of VMI will soon become the dominant circulating strains.

In my opinion Geert van den Bossche simply has a point. Slow distribution-taking YEARS !!!!- against a high speed mutating corona virus-in my words-will "buy us time"...nothing more...

If mass vaccinations is the road chosen you may end up needing newer vaccines, faster...at the end-as far as I understand it-vaccines can NOT do the job of ending this pandemic. 

Since criminal "governments/experts" gave in to "economic/profit pressure" "reopening" will result in a further worsening of this pandemic....

Geert van den Bossche [url]https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/[/url] or https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/  expects this pandemic to end when the virus runs out of hosts...DJ And "we" are doing all "we" can to give this Covid non-human hosts...

DJ-At least that is what I can make of it....I am NOT an expert...

Some other ideas;

If Delta-variant is 1,200+ x more viral parts-and vaccination does NOT stop infection and spread (the idea was it would stop spread 75%...but the reason US is going for masks is the finding vaccinated people spread the same amount of viral parts as unvaccinated-if infected) the "atmosphere/air/biosphere" may get an overload of viral parts...certainly in urban area's...

Those viral parts have to end up in non human hosts. Some of those parts may have mutations that may enable infection/spread in non human hosts....

Since the "goal" of any species is "survival of that species" (whatever the costs...) Covid19-variants will keep reproducing themselves as long as there are hosts/cells to reproduce in...This pandemic just begun....

Ventilation with an overload of viral particles outside (parts per million) not that much better then inside is more an "illusion/delusion" then dilussion.....

We soon may see "the rich" moving into safety bubbles....

The UK was expecting 100,000 new cases per day-reporting 25,000+ DJ the gap may be-at least in part-be asymptomatic...just gone from the radar....still spreading the (new) variants...

"Saving the economy-corruption" is destroying the planet...

Of course I hope I am wrong ! Of course I hope schools reopening, end of holidays, will not see an explosion of cases...only getting worse in autumn/winter....

Of course I hope overstretched, exhausted, but destroyed by stupidity, public health can deal with yet several other waves...But they are at breaking point and often gave 200% of what they could give...

A pretty depressing picture...booster vaccines, increase of vaccinations, may buy us less in the coming months then it did bring us in the first half of 2021...variants-at the end-will not be stopped by host-immunity...

In "War of the Worlds" virusses/bacteria did beat the Martians-not humans...

-Numbers-for what they may be of value; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; US at #1 for new cases...as far as there is sequencing the Delta variant may be the main variant-but Delta+ seems to have not her own statistics...Lambda variant proberbly also going up...60,000+ new cases, Indonesia 45,000+ new cases at #2, India almost 43,000 new cases (under)reporting at #3...testing may be marginal-real numbers-worldwide may be 10x+ the "tested/reported" almost 580,000 cases...

In deaths Indonesia #1 with 2,069 deaths tested/reported. Brazil #2-1,320 deaths...Russia #3-779 deaths...

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table  global cases +3%, deaths +6%...Europe claiming cases -5%/deaths +5%...North America more realistic cases +34%/deaths +20%...Asia cases +8%/deaths +19%...South America has been showing a different picture for weeks-cases -12%/deaths -15%...over 50% of them in Brazil...but Brazil also has 50%+ of all South America population...Africa cases -13%/deaths +5%...most of cases/testing in South Africa with both winter and a social crisis...

In general-these are JULY-numbers !!! A year ago new cases were between 250,000 and 300,000 ! Deaths  between 6,000 and 7,500 per day...Both cases and deaths july 2021-with mass vaccinations (and a lot of fraud to keep numbers down) are much higher !

Again-depressing ! Awfull ! I need another coffee !

-Flutrackers latest posts-and maybe some other links...(I try to keep it short).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918936-surge-in-tokyo-s-covid-19-cases-likely-means-new-state-of-emergency-through-olympics-spectators-banned?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/asia-ad/asia-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918936-surge-in-tokyo-s-covid-19-cases-likely-means-new-state-of-emergency-through-olympics-spectators-banned?view=stream latest; COVID-19 cases in Tokyo are now rising faster than at any time in the pandemic but Japanese authorities are resisting renewed calls for the Olympics to be suspended.

DJ-And the winner is...well Covid-variants, greed/corruption did get silver...stupidity bronze

I do not put links to countries reporting Covid out of control...it seems to be the "new normal"...Also US-CDC now returning to masks...they should never, ever stopped masks...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920378-cidrap-us-covid-prevalence-likely-60-higher-than-reported-experts-say[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920378-cidrap-us-covid-prevalence-likely-60-higher-than-reported-experts-say ; University of Washington at Seattle researchers estimate that 60% of US COVID-19 cases have gone unreported due to biases in test data and delayed reporting, according to a modeling study yesterday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

-

About 65 million US residents (19.7%) likely had COVID-19 by Mar 7, the model shows. Until that point, only about 1 of every 2.3 infections had been confirmed, suggesting that about 60% of all infections had been unreported.
"Our results indicate that a large majority of COVID infections go unreported," the authors wrote. "Even so, we find that the United States was still far from reaching herd immunity to the virus in early March 2021 from infections alone. This suggests that continued mitigation and an aggressive vaccination effort are necessary to surpass the herd-immunity threshold without incurring many more deaths due to the disease."

-

The estimated undercounts, which varied widely across states, could have had several causes, lead author Nicholas Irons, a doctoral student, said in the press release.
"It can depend on the severity of the pandemic and the amount of testing in that state," he said. "If you have a state with severe pandemic but limited testing, the undercount can be very high, and you're missing the vast majority of infections that are occurring. Or, you could have a situation where testing is widespread and the pandemic is not as severe. There, the undercount rate would be lower."
Under the ideal scenario, Raftery said, states would conduct regular random testing of residents to estimate the true COVID-19 prevalence, like Indiana and Ohio did. "We think this tool can make a difference by giving the people in charge a more accurate picture of how many people are infected, and what fraction of them are being missed by current testing and treatment efforts," he said.

So yesterdays US number of over 60,000 cases may be about 40% of a more realistic number...Given an increase of asymptomatic spread due to vaccination-and a/pre-symptomatic spread was already 59% CDC-ad random large scale testing would give a more realistic view. Proberbly some other western countries (NL...) have even less realistic testing (here in NL only testing after contact with infected or if you have symptoms...or travel plans...but commercial testing often does NOT report to the NL-CDC...).

Since it would likely increase "the problem with 60%" and "democrazy needs winners" we will not see large scale ad random tests in most western countries...In China it is part of containing the spread...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920375-cidrap-cdc-reports-two-outbreaks-of-pan-resistant-candida-auris[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/920375-cidrap-cdc-reports-two-outbreaks-of-pan-resistant-candida-auris ; The report described two clusters of pan-resistant C auris identified through routine screening by the CDC’s Antibiotic Resistance Laboratory Network from January through April of this year. The clusters involved three patients at a long-term care facility in Washington, DC, and seven patients in two acute care hospitals in Texas.


The multidrug-resistant yeast, first identified in Japan in 2009, arrived in the United States in 2016 and has slowly spread in healthcare facilities since its arrival, predominantly among immune-compromised patients in long-term care facilities and acute care hospitals. While many C auris cases have been resistant to azoles and polyenes—two of the three major classes of antifungals used to treat Candida infections—the 10 cases identified in the two clusters were also resistant to echinocandins, which are the first-line treatment for invasive C auris infections.

Containment is a challenge

Resistance isn't the only issue with C auris. The ability of the fungus to spread easily in healthcare settings is another trait that concerns public health officials and infectious disease experts.
Unlike other species of Candida, which tend to colonize the gut, C auris has an affinity for skin, and CDC research has shown that colonized patients can shed the pathogen onto bed rails and other parts of the hospital environment. There, it can survive for several weeks, and it can be hard to kill with standard disinfectants.
In addition, C auris often spreads between facilities within healthcare networks when colonized or infected patients are transferred.
"It makes the containment really challenging, because you can't just focus on one facility," Lyman said. "When you find it in a facility, it may just be the tip of the iceberg, and there are a lot of other cases that may have gone undetected."

DJ Covid19 and fungul/yeast infections are "a perfect mariage"...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/920367-south-africa-1-new-outbreak-of-sars-cov-2-in-lions-in-zoo-johannesburg-gauteng-oie-july-27-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/920367-south-africa-1-new-outbreak-of-sars-cov-2-in-lions-in-zoo-johannesburg-gauteng-oie-july-27-2021SOURCE OF EVENT OR ORIGIN OF INFECTION
- Contact with infected humans

DJ-It now is just a matter of time Covid starts showing up in non-human hosts...

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/experts-covid-boosters-for-at-risk-groups-may-help-avert-new-variants/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/experts-covid-boosters-for-at-risk-groups-may-help-avert-new-variants/ ; “It’s believed that new variants arise when immunocompromised people are infected,” Kobileer tells The Times of Israel. This happens because the virus stays in such people’s bodies for longer than normal, creating conditions under which it is prone to mutation.

Bolster the protection for the immunocompromised and you reduce the chance that a cancer patient, transplant recipient, or someone else with a weakened immune system will give rise to a new variant, said Kobileer.

-

This could help reduce the risk of the emergence of a new Israeli variant, which like all new variants could turn out to be more contagious, more vaccine-proof, or more harmful to the body. And given that local variants can spread particularly fast in the countries where they arise, limiting the prospects of a local variant is valuable, says Hertz.

-

“The problem is when immunocompromised people aren’t very sick but nevertheless keep replicating the virus and have a high virus count,” Kobileer says. “The lingering of the virus is the problem.”

“With the boosters, we are reducing the chances of it lingering,” he adds. “And the logic would suggest that when you reduce the chances of this lingering effect, you reduce the chances of a new variant arising.”

DJ-There seems to be NO long term strategy while we-by now-should know vaccines will NOT get us out of this pandemic. STOP THE SPREAD !!!!! (By the way Israel science is doing very good in dealing with this pandemic !).

Twitter [url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD and [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing have a lot of good info...

-Dr.John Campbell sometimes has good info [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAmoA_q8Rjk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAmoA_q8Rjk  but his suggestion we "vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic" is unrealistic, tested cases in the UK an illusion...linked to schools being closed, less testing NOT to vaccines doing a super job in preventing infections and spread ! (DJ They however-so far-are doing a good job in preventing severe illness...but vaccine protection is 6-12 months...it looks like..and NOT the way out...)

The most likely reason "we" went for Big Pharma vaccines may be greed/corruption...[url]https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/uks-richest-households-saw-wealth-grow-by-70000-during-covid-crisis.html[/url] or https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/12/uks-richest-households-saw-wealth-grow-by-70000-during-covid-crisis.html  this pandemic as another business/profit oppertunity...

Maybe I may find courage to look at variants...

Music; Anita Kerr Singers-Welcome To My World [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEzTxY233OU[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEzTxY233OU 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 6 hours 30 minutes ago at 9:55pm

DJ, 

I did write my last writing in scenario's and felt a bit guilty...the story to depressing...But in life there is such a thing as "bad news" and the way this pandemic is going is "simply" bad news...Some experts warned early 2020 that-without proper action-we would end up in a downward spiral...and "maybe" the "good news" is they were correct...

How to get out of here ? My basic idea is "simple" STOP THE SPREAD !!!! And vaccines are part of stopping the spread. It may be good news that here in NL now up to 90% is willing to get vaccinated...Vaccinations in NL-when it finally started-have put NL in the top for "best vaccinated countries"...I did see some statistics that "we" are getting close to UK/Israel in vaccinations...

Still with two/three weeks to have vaccines build immunity Israel and the UK may be doing "better". In Israel also both booster shots and vulnarable children 5-12 y/o will get a chance to get vaccinated...

In NL a widespread idea is that if you make vaccinations mandatory-in NL-the willingness to get vaccinated may decrease...Still more and more employers demand their workforce-worldwide-to get vaccinated. 

If "we could vaccinate ourselves out of this pandemic" that would be good news...Depending on what studies you look at vaccine protection is going down...May depend on age, vaccine, variants...Delta and Delta+ increasing both...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ wednesday july 28 almost 660,000 new cases-still very serious under reporting...10,135 deaths...US almost 85,000 new cases, Brazil, Indonesia almost 50,000 cases...Indonesia reporting 1,824 deaths, Brazil 1,366, Russia 798...

Trends [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases +7%, deaths +8% and "Delta(+) just starting"...in many places. Some countries with high increases in %; 

Turkey +96%, deaths +21%, Nigeria +77%, deaths +80%, France +74% deaths +28%, Vietnam +71% deaths +12%, Israel +62% deaths -38% (last week 13 this week 8 so limited numbers on a small population), China +62% 0 deaths..., USA +57% deaths +17%, Japan +53% deaths -32%, Australia +44% deaths +100% (3 last week, 6 this week), Finland +40% 0 deaths, Germany +38% deaths +25%, Canada +38% deaths +7%, Thailand +36% deaths +16%, Cuba +30% deaths +18%, Mexico +27% deaths +48%...

In total 116 countries reporting increase of cases...

Somehow UK (184) claiming cases -36% !!! deaths +36%, NL (196) claiming cases -49% deaths +63%...Both countries on the end almost of 207 reporting countries...Both governments "opened up", here in NL even decreased rules on ventilation...Further increase in international travel...

Yes both UK and NL did see schools closed-but that goes for almost all other countries...A lot of people maybe on holiday...but also that does not only go for the UK and NL...Proberbly testing "may result in lower cases being reported"....Both "bojo" and "rutte" P(roble)M's are doing all they can to increase, worsen the pandemic...but "cases are coming down"...hard to believe ! 

I do not doubt both the UK and NL soon will see an influx of all kinds of new variants...detected after hospitals crash...Both PM's blaming the average citizen "for not following rules"...maybe they also blame China, Putin, the EU, WHO or whatever...and still get away with their lies and crimes...

On the same level as these two PM's is the reporting of [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cdc-director-fearmongers-covid-may-be-few-mutations-away-evading-vaccines[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/cdc-director-fearmongers-covid-may-be-few-mutations-away-evading-vaccines  calling Covid "Chinese Communist Party-virus"...not loking at their own government. The interesting other part is ; But the big concern is the next variant that might emerge, just a few mutations potentially away, could potentially evade our vaccines.”

DJ-ZeroHedge, Hal Turner do have a point in that CDC, WHO do a terrible job in communication. Governments reopening, lifting mask-mandates-with going for restrictions, mask rules just a few months later, do a terrible job ! At least for public healthcare...

Shareholders in Big Pharma are very pleased...Also airlines, fossil fuel industry welcome reopenings...Economy first, public health second, HCW-ers last...

-Flutrackers latest posts (etc);

[url]https://globalnews.ca/news/8066382/july-alberta-covid-19-surge-expected/[/url] or https://globalnews.ca/news/8066382/july-alberta-covid-19-surge-expected/ ; For now, experts say the surge is expected and is no cause for alarm.

DJ "The world is on fire, you may not survive-but experts say it was expected and is no cause for alarm"...Sports-Tokyo Olympics...blabla..."Free Press" has a moral duty ! And that duty is to alarm-not put to sleep ! Total garbage !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/920457-usda-aphis-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2-detected-in-4-states[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/920457-usda-aphis-white-tailed-deer-exposed-to-sars-cov-2-detected-in-4-states

While SARS-COV-2 is believed to have originated in bats, it is now predominantly a disease in humans, although other species, including mink, dogs, cats, and a number of other mammals are known to be susceptible.


Three weeks ago, in EID Journal: Peridomestic Mammal Susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 Infectionwe looked at the admittedly low, but worrisome possibility that COVID could establish itself in a non-human species in the wild.

This could conceivably provide the virus with additional opportunities to produce new variants, as we've already seen happen in domesticated mink (see SSI Study: Denmark's Cluster-5 mink Variant Had Increased Antibody Resistance), which might then jump back into the human population.


Today the USDA/APHIS announced the detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in 33% of 481 samples opportunistically collected from 32 counties across 4 states (Illinois, Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania) - and while they state that this is `not unexpected' - this seems like a pretty high seroprevalence in the wild.

This announcement states that this study was only designed to determine exposure of deer to SARS-CoV-2 in their natural environment, and they were unable to say whether the deer were replicating and shedding SARS-CoV-2.

DJ In a pandemic looking if virus is spreading in non-human hosts should be one of the priorities ! This finding "of antibodies" in deers should be top of the news ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody ; An antibody (Ab), also known as an immunoglobulin (Ig),[1] is a large, Y-shaped protein used by the immune system to identify and neutralize foreign objects such as pathogenic bacteria and viruses. The antibody recognizes a unique molecule of the pathogen, called an antigen.[2][3] 

Each tip of the "Y" of an antibody contains a paratope (analogous to a lock) that is specific for one particular epitope (analogous to a key) on an antigen, allowing these two structures to bind together with precision. 

Using this binding mechanism, an antibody can tag a microbe or an infected cell for attack by other parts of the immune system, or can neutralize it directly (for example, by blocking a part of a virus that is essential for its invasion).

In other words; YES !!!! Antibodies MEAN infection !!!! YES infection MEANS shedding (some) virus ! Because that is how an infection goes ! 

"Police-there has been an accident !" "Police then answers that they do "not know what an accident is"! An infection is an infection ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_disease[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viral_disease 

From the Flutracker link; IMPORTANCEGiven the presumed zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2, the human-animal-environment interface of COVID-19 pandemic is an area of great scientific and public- and animal-health interest. Identification of animal species that are susceptible to infection by SARS-CoV-2 may help to elucidate the potential origin of the virus, identify potential reservoirs or intermediate hosts, and define the mechanisms underlying cross-species transmission to humans. 

Additionally, it may also provide information and help to prevent potential reverse zoonosis that could lead to the establishment of a new wildlife hosts. Our data show that upon intranasal inoculation, white-tailed deer became subclinically infected and shed infectious SARS-CoV-2 in nasal secretions and feces. Importantly, indirect contact animals were infected and shed infectious virus, indicating efficient SARS-CoV-2 transmission from inoculated animals. 

These findings support the inclusion of wild cervid species in investigations conducted to assess potential reservoirs or sources of SARS-CoV-2 of infection.

DJ Viral infection means virus can reproduce themselves in cells in the host-and that means shedding/spreading virus parts...that is how it works ! If the shedding/spreading is enough to infect other hosts is a major question...In minks it was more then enough. In cat-like animals it may be very limited. Dogs can get infected but are very likely not shedding enough virus parts to spread the virus infection-yet...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-july-19-2021?view=stream DJ; "Strange" if you testing goes down your cases go down...how unexpected...Testing -14,4% (with lots of variants spreading-so it is URGENT to INcrease testing-not DEcrease testing !) so "cases going down" -36,1%...And of course if you "want to show cases going down you can select groups to keep testing at a certain level. Isolated old people proberbly will test negative...so increase testing there if you want "good results"...Hospital cases +23,4 %, deaths +36,1%...

DJ-Dr.J.C. would call these numbers "very encouraging"..."indicating vaccines work ! We will be out of this pandemic by autumn"....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/economics-in-the-pandemic/920464-pfizer-raises-sales-forecast-for-covid-vaccine-by-almost-a-third-to-33bn[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/economics-at-flutrackers/economics-in-the-pandemic/920464-pfizer-raises-sales-forecast-for-covid-vaccine-by-almost-a-third-to-33bn ; Pfizer has raised its full-year revenue projections for its coronavirus vaccine by almost a third after the shot helped the drugmaker to almost double its sales in the second quarter. The US group, which markets a widely used Covid-19 vaccine along with Germany’s BioNTech, upgraded its 2021 revenue forecast for the shot to $33.5bn from the $26bn it had predicted in the previous quarter. The group, which shares profits on sales of the Covid shot evenly with BioNTech, generated direct sales of $7.8bn from the vaccine in the second quarter. Albert Bourla, Pfizer chief executive, said the second quarter was “remarkable in a number of ways”.

DJ; And some say there is no good news...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920455-u-s-reports-more-than-100-000-new-coronavirus-cases[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920455-u-s-reports-more-than-100-000-new-coronavirus-cases ; More than 100,000 new coronavirus cases have been reported in the U.S. amid a rapid surge in hospital admissions and new calls from federal officials to wear a mask in public.

Data from health departments across the U.S. showed that 106,084 new cases were reported, including a two-day backlog from Florida which occurs every Tuesday. It represents an increase of 73% from last week.

The states reporting the most new cases are: Florida (38,321 for a three-day period), Texas (8,642), California (7,731), Louisiana (6,818), Georgia (3,587), Utah (2,882), Alabama (2,667), and Missouri (2,414).

DJ So Florida did "review" only giving statistics once a week on Fridays ? This pandemic is a political disaster ! No doubt related; [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920452-us-florida-covid-19-these-numbers-are-extraordinary-we-are-seeing-nearly-1-000-new-cases-in-orange-county-daily-july-27-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/920452-us-florida-covid-19-these-numbers-are-extraordinary-we-are-seeing-nearly-1-000-new-cases-in-orange-county-daily-july-27-2021 ; Washington (CNN)The mayor of the Florida county that's home to Disney World and Universal Studios is sounding the alarm on a spike of Covid-19 cases in the area, saying the county is now in "crisis mode" as it grapples with its worsening infection rate. Are main tourist attractions still open ? 

 [url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/920414-j-med-virol-sequencing-on-an-imported-case-in-china-of-covid-19-delta-variant-emerging-from-india-in-a-cargo-ship-in-zhoushan-china[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/920414-j-med-virol-sequencing-on-an-imported-case-in-china-of-covid-19-delta-variant-emerging-from-india-in-a-cargo-ship-in-zhoushan-chinaA cluster of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections was found in a cargo ship under repairing in Zhoushan, China. 12 of 20 crew members were identified SARS-CoV-2 positive. We analyzed 4 sequences and identified them all in the Delta branch emerging from India with 7-8 amino acid mutation sites in the spike protein.

DJ Basic point-ONE (1!!!) infected host can be enough to start a pandemic !

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-set-to-approve-3rd-vaccine-for-older-israelis-after-nod-from-expert-panel/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-set-to-approve-3rd-vaccine-for-older-israelis-after-nod-from-expert-panel/

The number of new seriously ill patients climbed from 20 on Monday to 33 on Tuesday to 41 on Wednesday.

Health officials estimate that there will be 1,000 patients in serious condition in total by the end of August.

During the Wednesday night discussion, the panel was presented with a figure that showed the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing serious illness among those above the age of 60 who were vaccinated in January dropped from 97% in April to 81% in July.

While most experts backed giving a third dose to Israelis above the age of 60, some preferred raising the threshold to 65 years old. Haaretz cited anonymous experts who expressed concern over the lack of data on the third dose while also acknowledging that postponing a decision on the matter could have disastrous consequences.

The panel was also presented figures from the UK where the drop in the vaccine’s effectiveness wasn’t as stark, possibly because recipients there had to wait three months between the first and second doses, as opposed to Israelis who waited roughly three weeks.

DJ Increasing vaccinations; from vulnarable 5-12 y/o children to booster vaccines for 60+ y/o for now may "slow down" increase in cases...

-Others

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p7ok5aIX6s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p7ok5aIX6s ZOE are UK cases realy going down ? Prof. Tim Spector; ZOE UK around 60,000 new cases per day, 24,000 cases in fully vaccinated The R0 is around 1. 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L03-my4E4gI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L03-my4E4gI Even Dr. John Campbell putting questions on UK statistics...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cccSHUckGSQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cccSHUckGSQ Peak Prosperity/Dr. Chris Martenson; CDC data is surprising

End of part 1-part 2 will be my conclusions



 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 53 minutes ago at 3:32am

DJ-Part 2, 

How can it be UK official numbers are going down while even ZOE may indicate UK cases going up ? DJ Several reasons; both Tim Spector and Dr. J.C. come up with-and some are mine...

-Schools closed, no football matches Euro 2020...so limited large scale events may reduce UK (and other country) numbers...

-However with Delta(+) likely increasing a higher infectioness, R0 for Delta could be even between 5 and 9, would undo less spread event factor. 

-ZOE tracker app in UK still around 60,000+ cases last week with 20,000+ removing the app indicates real UK numbers are going up...

-Dr. J.C. and Tim Spector both point to official UK "list of symptoms" as being out of date...headache now much more a symptoms then loss of smell etc...So people looking at the list of symptoms may not recognize newer symptoms ? 

-DJ-I do not think so ! Point is vaccinated people "love to believe" even if they catch Covid-after vaccination-symptoms will be not there or mild. Dr.J.C. comes up even with a claim catching Covid after vaccination may provide a boost for immunity...(very optimistic !)

-I think UK and NL "tested cases" going down is a false signal. Both UK and NL "governments" do however welcome this false signal as an indication that their "strategy" (or lack of it) is "not as bad as some claim"....


Another point is numbers are unclear on how good vaccinations work after time. Who would need booster vaccinations when ? 

-Israeli indications, some other studies indicate protection from vaccines will go down

-However immunity is complex. T cell immunity may last much longer then antibodies...

-So proberbly age, health is a factor. Old and more vulnarable may see less and shorter protection. 

-The other side of the story is variants. Delta, Delta+, Lambda etc are getting better in evading vaccine/natural immunity...

-Keeping 6 feet/1,5-2 meter distance, contacts < 15 minutes is not effective against Delta and some other variants-even for the vaccinated !

-Keeping 15 feet/5 meter distance, contacts as short as possible means "isolation in your bubble"...

-Given the duration of this crisis (+18 months by now) and social consequences there is a growing need for "creating safe social bubbles" ...people need other people, social contacts, touching...that should be a higher priority !


New variants [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 

DJ-It is getting impossible almost to keep track of new variants...Screening may take a few days, sequencing can take up to two weeks...Testing itself may be problematic often...There are groups refusing vaccines-deny the pandemic. Then there are vaccinated and believe they can not get infected...Some governments also discourage testing...Most of new cases/variants are in young people...

Positive testing means no party, holiday, fun, social contacts...so-if possible-avoid a positive test...Of course that means more risks for themselves and others...but there is-in their view-not enough compensation for positive testing and isolating...

At least for NL "government" "dansen met Janssen" telling young people get J&J vaccine today, dance to night did destroy confidence. Also "test-for-entry" non-sense- the NL "clowns-club government" spent over 1 billion € on resulted still in mass spread events...

Both the NL and UK "government" are showing a total lack of taking this pandemic serious so "testing will go down" if "supposed governments" tends to take this pandemic as "a minor problem"...


Of course that put us at the outlook...what to expect when society, schools etc reopen next month ? 

-Due to lack of stopping international air travel more variants will show up at even more places...

-New variants (Japan-Olympic, UK, NL, US...) will show themselves....

-Hospitals will again be pushed at/over breaking point...

-Bad governments will blame the unvaccinated, China, Putin, young/old people but not themselves and still get away with it...

-Big Pharma profits going up further-Oxfam reported today vaccines are 5X the production costs...that is a lot of profit for Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech...


Bad news is this pandemic was controlable so far via vaccines and NPI...we could be at the brink of an uncontrolable pandemic...R0 of between 12 and 18-variants...

YES-Vaccines, NPI will be of limited use in that scenario. There may be medication (Ivermectin, others, anti-viral) to limit disease...but society will be "smashed towards breaking point"...Number of deaths worldwide will "explode"....This pandemic will get worse then the "mild" 1918/19 Spanish Flu...Fungul infections already are increasing-so is social unrest, poverty, debts...also in "rich" countries...

A worsening pandemic means it will take much longer to control, stricter measures....


On a global perspective China may gain global influence. They may go for booster vaccinations for their own over 1,4 billion population but also increase export both vaccines and pandemic know how to countries that are willing "to work with China"...

The "best 3 pandemic prepared" US-UK-NL "market-economies" are allready showing their faillures in dealing with this pandemic and the social, economic, political consequences....They are on a high way-high speed-to "crash"....

-[url]https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD[/url] or https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD and [url]https://twitter.com/DrEricDing[/url] or https://twitter.com/DrEricDing may give important updates-among many others...

I try to get informed from many sources-balance it...to get any idea of where we are going...

Music [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRPPKZzClWE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRPPKZzClWE The Brothers Four-The Green leaves of summer...in NL summer has been windy and wet...3 years ago end of luly 2019 did bring over 40C record heat to NL...now we are lucky if we get 20C....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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