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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.


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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2021 at 9:03pm


When I look at the numbers [url][/url] or the time between the peak and the low in global cases is about two months; roughly mid december a sort of peak-mid february sort of low, mid april another peak followed mid june by another that time vaccines allready were a factor...So did we have a peak middle of august - to be followed by a low in mid october, another peak mid december ? 

From the Dutch microbiologist [url][/url] or retweeting WHO; 

"The Delta variant will not be the last #COVID19 variant of concern. To fight it, we need to: - surge vaccination efforts - improve surveillance systems - use tests efficiently - manage gatherings appropriately - fix ventilation - communicate consistently ..." - Dr @mvankerkhove

DJ, what we gained by vaccines we gave away with lifting of least as far as governments can influence individual choices...[url][/url] or needs healthy kidneys anyways”—is what folks who ignore #LongCovid / don’t care about mild infections are de facto saying. New study (in a top nephrology journal) finds huge drops in kidney function if #COVID19 infected, even if not hospitalized! Collectie

I do not want that virus ! Dr.J.C. can be talking on "planning when to catch it-boost immunity" I am planning on NOT to catch it at all !

Are the "wave-peaks" that predictable four months from eachother ? I do not think so. It is getting more and more complex...

At [url][/url] or I try to keep an eye on the local situation for (hospital)cases, sewage etc...but to have good numbers you need good enough testing...And mild/no symptoms in vaccinated may see infections being much higher then local statistics will to get a view of where we are going;

.maximum testing/sequencing

.good info on how much people, what kind of people, will be where...(I avoid school-hours as best as I can)

.where (in small NL) cases seem to be going up-and why ? (Mass event, churches, school cases...)

On a global scale it may still be a lot of children do not get very ill themselves but spread the virus further..a sort of delay in increase of cases. Global trends -11% for cases, -8% for deaths seems to be decreasing...If vaccines offer 6 to 8 months good protection many countries by now may start seeing the first signs of waning vaccine immunity...

Also Delta can give more then one peak...

So "can we live with the virus" ? Do we have a choice ? We may have to live with the virus-but that virus will create a permanent pandemic like situation...if we have a chance to "NOT live with the virus" (like New Zealand is trying to do, China wants..) it would be the better option...

And YES !!! The vaccines do a great job but can not do all of the job by far ! The "exit-strategy" had to be a combination of vaccines AND restrictions ! To get the R0 as close to 0 as possible and later on try to keep local outbreaks limited...but that is not the road we did choose...

I think the best description for the present situation would be; "Looking for the right house in the wrong street"....

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or ; Repeated emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants with increased transmissibility necessitates rapid detection and characterization of new lineages. 

To address this need, we developed PyR0, a hierarchical Bayesian multinomial logistic regression model that infers relative transmissibility of all viral lineages across geographic regions, detects lineages increasing in prevalence, and identifies mutations relevant to transmissibility. 

Applying PyR0 to all publicly available SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we identify numerous substitutions that increase transmissibility, including previously identified spike mutations and many non-spike mutations within the nucleocapsid and nonstructural proteins.

 PyR0 forecasts growth of new lineages from their mutational profile, identifies viral lineages of concern as they emerge, and prioritizes mutations of biological and public health concern for functional characterization.

One Sentence summary: A Bayesian hierarchical model of all viral genomes predicts lineage transmissibility and identifies associated mutations.

DJ We have the tools, we do not use them well enough...

[url][/url] or ;

At least 12,000 Americans have already died from COVID-19 this month, as the country inches through its latest surge in cases. But another worrying statistic is often cited to depict the dangers of this moment: The number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the United States right now is as high as it has been since the beginning of February. It’s even worse in certain places: Some states, including Arkansas and Oregon, recently saw their COVID hospitalizations rise to higher levels than at any prior stage of the pandemic. But how much do those latter figures really tell us?

From the start, COVID hospitalizations have served as a vital metric for tracking the risks posed by the disease. Last winter, this magazine described it as “the most reliable pandemic number,” while Vox quoted the cardiologist Eric Topol as saying that it’s “the best indicator of where we are.” On the one hand, death counts offer finality, but they’re a lagging signal and don’t account for people who suffered from significant illness but survived. Case counts, on the other hand, depend on which and how many people happen to get tested. Presumably, hospitalization numbers provide a more stable and reliable gauge of the pandemic’s true toll, in terms of severe disease. But a new, nationwide study of hospitalization records, released as a preprint today (and not yet formally peer reviewed), suggests that the meaning of this gauge can easily be misinterpreted—and that it has been shifting over time.

If you want to make sense of the number of COVID hospitalizations at any given time, you need to know how sick each patient actually is. Until now, that’s been almost impossible to suss out. The federal government requires hospitals to report every patient who tests positive for COVID, yet the overall tallies of COVID hospitalizations, made available on various state and federal dashboards and widely reported on by the media, do not differentiate based on severity of illness. Some patients need extensive medical intervention, such as getting intubated. Others require supplemental oxygen or administration of the steroid dexamethasone. But there are many COVID patients in the hospital with fairly mild symptoms, too, who have been admitted for further observation on account of their comorbidities, or because they reported feeling short of breath. Another portion of the patients in this tally are in the hospital for something unrelated to COVID, and discovered that they were infected only because they were tested upon admission. How many patients fall into each category has been a topic of much speculation. In August, researchers from Harvard Medical School, Tufts Medical Center, and the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System decided to find out...

DJ If you look at hospital cases you may miss long CoViD...Asymptomatic spread in vaccinated-and what kind of virus is spreading-may also be important...If you go for "living with the virus" hospital cases seem to be the major number; burden on healthcare...If you go for "Zero-Covid" increasing testing and sequencing is major...and we seem to be decreasing that...

[url][/url] or ; “I see these continued surges occurring throughout the world,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, and an adviser to U.S. President Joe Biden. “Then it will drop, potentially somewhat precipitously,” he said. “And then I think we very easily could see another surge in the fall and winter” of this year, he added.
With billions of people around the world yet to be vaccinated and little chance now of eliminating the virus, we can expect more outbreaks in classrooms, on public transport and in workplaces over the coming months, as economies push ahead with reopening. Even as immunization rates rise, there will always be people who are vulnerable to the virus: Newborn babies, people who can’t or won’t get inoculated, and those who get vaccinated but suffer breakthrough infections as their protection levels ebb.

The next few months will be rough. One key danger is if a vaccine-resistant variant develops, although it is not the only risk ahead. In the coming months, Bloomberg will explore the pandemic’s long-term impact on economies and markets, the pharmaceutical industry, travel and more.

“We’re going to see hills and valleys, at least for the next several years as we get more vaccine out. That’s going to help. But the challenge is going to be: How big will the hills and valleys be, in terms of their distance?” Osterholm said. “We don’t know. But I can just tell you, this is a coronavirus forest fire that will not stop until it finds all the human wood that it can burn.”

COVID Compared to Other Pandemics

The five well-documented influenza pandemics of the past 130 years offer some blueprint for how COVID might play out, according to Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist and professor of population health sciences at Roskilde University in Denmark. She is an expert on the ebb and flow of such events.

While the longest global flu outbreak lasted five years, they mostly consisted of two to four waves of infection over an average of two or three years, she said. COVID is already shaping up to be among the more severe pandemics, as its second year concludes with the world in the middle of a third wave—and no end in sight...

DJ Again !!!! S T O P   T H E   S P R E A D   ! ! ! ! ! ! Vaccinations become pointless when you give up on most restrictions...maybe one major factor has to be limiting international travel-STOP IMPORTING VARIANTS !!!!!! 

Again !!! I am NOT an expert at all ! In Dutch we have a saying "dweilen met de kraan open" , mopping the floor while the tap is still open....To translate it to the wildfire...we are adding water AND fuel....that is not working !

I do notice a "sense of realism" in this story; living with the virus is living with a pandemic for years...There are better options !

[url][/url] or ; A COVID-19 outbreak in a French nursing home—where 95% of residents but only a third of healthcare workers were fully vaccinated— infected nearly a quarter of residents and 12% of staff, finds a study today in JAMA Network Open.


The outbreak occurred in a 77-bed nursing home in Biscarrosse, a town in southwest France, several weeks after the vast majority of residents received two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in January and February.

Of 74 total residents (mean age, 87.8 years; 22.2% men), 70 residents (95%) had received two doses of vaccine at least 14 days before the outbreak, while 2 (2.7%) had received one dose.

All infections were attributed to the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (B117) variant. "To our knowledge, this is the first outbreak due to the B.1.1.7 COVID-19 variant described among individuals well vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2," the researchers wrote. They also noted an April 30 study in Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report on an outbreak of an earlier SARS-CoV-2 variant in a US nursing home where 90% of residents were fully vaccinated.

and [url][/url] or ; “Many of us were saying let’s use [the vaccine] to save lives, not to vaccinate people already immune,” says Marty Makary, a professor of health policy and management at Johns Hopkins University.

Still, the CDC instructed everyone, regardless of previous infection, to get fully vaccinated as soon as they were eligible: natural immunity “varies from person to person” and “experts do not yet know how long someone is protected,” the agency stated on its website in January.6 By June, a Kaiser Family Foundation survey found that 57% of those previously infected got vaccinated.7

As more US employers, local governments, and educational institutions issue vaccine mandates that make no exception for those who have had covid-19,8 questions remain about the science and ethics of treating this group of people as equally vulnerable to the virus—or as equally threatening to those vulnerable to covid-19—and to what extent politics has played a role.

DJ People that did get SARS-1 in 2003 seem to still have immunity against SARS-2/CoViD-19...But the risks of "getting natural immunity" are much to high...Yet vaccines thenselves show to be far from perfect...See also [url][/url] or ; Cellular immunity is important in determining the disease severity of COVID-19 patients. However, current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 epitopes mediating cellular immunity is limited. 

Here we apply T-Scan, a recently developed method, to identify CD8+ T cell epitopes from COVID-19 patients of four major HLA-A alleles. 

Several identified epitopes are conserved across human coronaviruses, which might mediate pre-existing cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2. 

 In addition, we identify and validate four epitopes that were mutated in the newly circulating variants, including the Delta variant. 

The mutations significantly reduce T cell responses to the epitope peptides in convalescent and vaccinated samples.

 We further determine the crystal structure of HLA-A02:01/HLA-A24:02 in complex with the epitope KIA_S/NYN_S, respectively, which reveals the importance of K417 and L452 of the spike protein for binding to HLA. 

Our data suggest that evading cellular immunity might contribute to the increased transmissibility and disease severity associated with the new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

DJ Bad news for natural immunity ! (However [url][/url] or may indicate better still going on...)

[url][/url] or DJ-Other sort of UK statistics-in latest post UK deaths +22,6%....cases +1,1% (worldometers has cases -9%, deaths +25% - may be interesting puzzle to see why comes up with such different numbers...) 

[url][/url] or ;
This case report highlights details of a case of critical acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with B1.1.7 variant in a 4-year-old girl who died due to pneumonia and pulmonary hemorrhage. The girl was referred to our University ECMO Center from another University hospital for veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO). In the clinical course, superinfection with Pseudomonas aeruginosa was detected.

 Virological evidence of herpes simplex sepsis was also obtained in blood samples on her day of death. Transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in lung tissue. Postmortem computed tomography showed pulmonary hemorrhage with inhomogeneous density values in both lungs. Lung tissue showed no ventilated areas. 

Autopsy revealed a massively congested lung with evidence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and pneumonia with multiple abscesses. Histopathology showed a mixture of diffuse alveolar injury with hyaline membranes, massive hemorrhage, and bronchopneumonia with multiple granulocytic abscesses. Cardiac examination revealed pericarditis. Suspicion of myocarditis or myocardial infarction could not be confirmed microscopically. 

To our knowledge, this is the first autopsy-based case report of the death of a previously healthy child due to the new variant B 1.1.7 in Germany.

DJ Children become more and more at risk for SARS-2...this girl was just 4 y/o !

-Dr. John Campbell, getting of the road....[url][/url] or "When to be exposed" ? Info under the video...

DJ Avoid being exposed !!!! Just like in climate "change" there are options in how to deal with pandemics ! "Living with the virus" because BoJo did not stop importing Delta from India in time was criminal and stupid ! "Living with bad leaders" is almost as impossible as living "with an ever lasting pandemic" !!!!

On "natural immunity" [url][/url] or ; Cellular immunity is important in determining the disease severity of COVID-19 patients. However, current understanding of SARS-CoV-2 epitopes mediating cellular immunity is limited. Here we apply T-Scan, a recently developed method, to identify CD8+ T cell epitopes from COVID-19 patients of four major HLA-A alleles. Several identified epitopes are conserved across human coronaviruses, which might mediate pre-existing cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2. In addition, we identify and validate four epitopes that were mutated in the newly circulating variants, including the Delta variant. The mutations significantly reduce T cell responses to the epitope peptides in convalescent and vaccinated samples. We further determine the crystal structure of HLA-A02:01/HLA-A24:02 in complex with the epitope KIA_S/NYN_S, respectively, which reveals the importance of K417 and L452 of the spike protein for binding to HLA. 

Our data suggest that evading cellular immunity might contribute to the increased transmissibility and disease severity associated with the new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

DJ Still sticking to an idea of "herd immunity" is anti-science !!!! It was anti-science from the start !!! In animals corona virusses often meant killing all the animals as the only option to control the outbreak !!!

This may not be the first corona-virus pandemic, we may have seen one in 1880/1890...but then both the speed of transport for the virus was much lower (proberbly linked to railway lines...maybe some river transport routes...) and the number of hosts was much smaller and less concentrated !!!

To still allow virus to fly around the globe high speed, to arrive in mega cities with further high speed transport is beyond stupid !!!

Why would this CoViD-19 all of a sudden become milder ? So far the indications are it is getting worse-not better ! Wishfull thinking is NOT science !!!

It looks like "learning the hard way" with "booster vaccines" buying again some time...till more evasive variants show up...

Just like in climate "change/collapse" the "ruling elite" does not want to face the facts; this pandemic is getting worse because of an insane (lack of) strategy !!!

But again-I am NOT an expert, do not claim to be neutral...this is just my opinion etc...

-Other news; 

[url][/url] or DJ...Nicholas became a hurricane...bringing lots of rain again to the southern US...other storms just a matter of time-peak of hurricane season. I do not like the seismic activity [url][/url] or worldwide...

There is lots of uncertainty on how strong earthquakes can get...If HT story on a mega tsunami has a point; yes we may have had mega-tsunami's in the past...Events that happen once every 10,000 years may "escape from our radar"....

Also [url][/url] or HT did publish non-sense of the Chinese Army building up in Canada to invade the US....However China may have red lines for Taiwan...

What a lot of US publications keep missing is Russia and China are even more linked by now then NATO is...Just like Russian interventions in former Yugoslavia, South Caucasus, Crimea, Syria, Russia and China most likely are looking at "joint actions" in a larger "theatre"....Afghanistan, Ukraine may not be the only "action zones". 

From the South China Sea to the Middle East and Africa Russia and China have a number of relevant allies-Pakistan, Iran, Turkey may be among them...

[url][/url] or DJ-HT is blaming biden for things going wrong-still supporting trump...I do not agree with that view. 

However the US-in this pandemic-but not because of the pandemic-is further decreasing in a global role...China soon may be able to export hundreds of millions of vaccines, teams of experts to deal with this pandemic. Russia is taking over the US role in global weapon sales...

US sanctions on EU countries for North Stream buying Russian energy, EU still sticking to some sort of Iran-deal, the US-not Iran-did damage the US. 

September 26 will see elections in Germany-the main motor for Europe (with Brexit resulting in Germany becoming an even more important player). Germany wants trade with Russia, China, Iran...

"Living with the virus" may be an US/UK strategy...In that way the pandemic even more widens the gap between the "Anglo Saxon world" and the rest...

This pandemic may underline differences in what countries believe should be a governments role...With many countries going for a much stronger role for governments to deal with the many crises we face...less "market-liberalism" that is seen by many as one of the basic problems causing these crises...

-Music [url][/url] or Godley & Creme (former 10CC) - 5 o'clock in the morning...1977

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 13 2021 at 10:36pm

This is the way I look at it ,

I'v had the Flu 3 times in my life,1st two times I was ill the last I was really sick for 10 days then it took me about a month to get fit,after that I decided to have a flu shot,I know it won't stop me from getting it again,

I also know that if I do catch it I won't be as sick as if I didn't get a shot......

I know that when we open up I could catch covid,I'm hoping that because I'm vaccinated I won't get really sick,that's what my common sense tells me.

I don't like the idea of mandates........

But I don't like the idea of  thousands of my taxpayer dollars ,being spent ,looking after someone,who for the sake of $20 could save  themselves and others a lot of pain an suffering.......

Take care all 😷😉💉

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

Marcus Aurelius
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2021 at 2:18pm

The thing is Carbon, that the Covid unvaccinated also pay taxes, and plenty of them. In our family we pay tons of taxes and we're never ill. We are also very unlikely to get a severe case of Covid, but if we do then that's what we've paid our money for. 

If you are going to mandate Covid injections then what else are you going to mandate? There are many reasons why a person ends up in the hospital and most of them, one way or another, are avoidable. Our petty bureaucrats need to stop using Covid as an excuse boss everyone else around. Have a vaccine if you want one, or don't, but people need to stop moaning about it and stop telling everyone else what to do.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 14 2021 at 9:40pm


In this pandemic vaccines are presented the way wind turbines and solar power, electric cars are presented in the climate "discussion"; as a solution while they are not !

Most countries limit the "push" on vaccinations-simply because good info, availability, allready results in over 80% of the 12+ age group takes the vaccine...on a voluntary basis. 

We may see vaccine "passports" here in NL (for restaurants...even outside, but not for gyms...not very logic att all-giving up the 1,5 m/6 feet social distance is crazy....) but some very pro-vax experts are against it. Just because we did get allready so far on a voluntary basis and the vaccines are far from perfect...

I think vaccine passports may have some use-can be a tool-but again the way they are used makes the strategy not working. Less social distance for the vaccinated with at best 50% protection against infection is just as stupid as vaccination for reopening...

Trying to stop the bath overrun by closing the cold water but opening the warm water....

Both some "embedded experts" and lots of "politics" are putting up a show...playing with people and emotions...They are not working based on science...[url][/url] or Yes infections go up in unvaccinated-quite a lot of them are under 12 ! Can not get vaccinated here-or in most other countries.

On vaccination [url][/url] or better strategies to reach people who do not speak the language, with fear of needles, or with believes that "limit science"..may bring the vaccination ratio up to 90%+

In the US vaccines became political...maybe the only country where it became this political. And that is not helping...

Another note on further reopening proberbly increasing asymptomatic CoViD but it will also bring back flu season, other contagious diseases-that have had less chance to spread so far...Hospital are not ready for it...

Long Covid is a growing problem often ignored by does not have easy solutions for them...

-Numbers [url][/url] or  Cases now at -9%, deaths at -6% worldwide...77 countries report increase of cases. The trends are moving in the wrong direction. 

With less testing, an increase of asymptomatic spread-resulting in mutations that can become variants that may be better in evading immunity-is a major risk. 

September 14 did see the US (under)reporting 142,059 cases, 1,934 deaths...US cases -4%, deaths +16% !

In cases Turkey now at #2 with 27,802 cases being reported, (and 276 deaths)-trends for Turkey cases +9% deaths -10%  (cases+ deaths- means start of a wave, cases-, deaths + end of a wave). 

Philippines is one of many other countries with cases +, deaths - (here cases +10%, deaths -2% moving towards the peak both numbers will be in the +).

Israel yesterday reported 32 deaths...(NL reported 10 with double the population). Israeli deaths -9% but last week 207, this week 188 deaths = 20 deaths per million this week is a lot !

In South America (former Dutch) Suriname cases +55%, deaths +36%...small population but most of South America showing both cases and deaths going down...(Uruguay, Venezuela a.o. few still in the increase...)

Canada cases +11%, deaths +44%...(last week 135, this week 195 = 5 deaths per million of population this week). 

So-DJ-numbers indicate we are moving to a low point-very likely to see cases going up again later on...With even less restrictions other diseases (flu a lot of similarity in symptoms...) also will show up. Health care exhausted and demotivated, out of capacity...outlook is bad.

Just like in the climate discussion science agrees on there is a problem. But on what to do next science is very divided. The choosen road is vaccinations-and (again) YES vaccinations do a very good job in limiting burder on healthcare, limiting severe/ICU cases...a lot of hospital cases are in the unvaccinated. 

But also reopening while variants are spreading (most Delta-better in evading immunity allready) and alse seeing the limits of vaccines is (more then) undoing the gains made by vaccinations...Air travel transporting variants over the globe is insane....

Just like in climate change politics is failing to see how bad a pandemic can get...This pandemic very likely to become worse then the Spanish Flu...  

-Some twitter news;

[url][/url] or from june 11 !!!!; India Vlag van India doctors have been sharing concerns that #DeltaVariant is more severe / affecting more kids. Singapore Vlag van Singapore MOH is also warning it is affecting children a lot.

DJ Warnings being ignored...It is very likely China did publish studies in the early stages of this pandemic in Chineese...but "global science" wanted them to be in English.

[url][/url] or ; We're acting like everything's ok when we're having 1,000 deaths every week.' Epidemiologist Dr Deepti Gurdasani fears the government's Covid winter plan 'doesn't match the seriousness of the situation we're in'.

DJ What kind of "new normal" is acceptable and for who ? The poor, most urban, population face much higher risks then the rich elite that has long vacations in far away destinations...10% of the people doing air travel is doing 80% of the flying...

[url][/url] or a lot of the info in Dutch, a.o. the disinformation spread by (our) government(s). Further increasing vaccinations will NOT bring "herd immunity" so you need restrictions ! In a re-tweet; So basically, you are required to show a covid certificate if you're going to an event/concert in a lecture hall that can contain 200 people, but not if you're going to the same place to attend a lecture as part of your course. The virus of course recognises these are different.

DJ Vaccine passports can be a usefull tool-but if you do not have any realistic plan on how to use it it becomes pointless...

[url][/url] or surgeries get cancelled the health system isn’t at risk of being overrun, it is overrun.

DJ Wordgames do not help, blaming policies do not is a governments job to govern ! And they are not doing that in many countries !

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or ; I could find no evidence that people are ingesting Betadine so changed the title to reflect that there was some evidence of discussion of gargling with it. (There is an OTC mouthwash.) The Forbes article referenced so politically toxic that I was saddened to see that someone who is mature and educated wrote it.

DJ, I gargle my mouthwash-but do not swallow it. If you gargle with water it can also help clean up some "unwanted activity" in the upper airways...Dr.J.C. (I think) had some (good) info on Sao Paulo-Brazil- University working on a moutwash helping to limit infections...The other part of the quote reflects how poisoned US "press" has become...

[url][/url] or ; DJ-China is going for zero-Covid, like New Zealand, some parts of Australia...China trends cases +49%, last week reporting 185 cases, this week 276 cases (and if I get that right a-symptomatic positive test cases not counted as a case ? Number also includes cases stopped at airports ?).

[url][/url] or latest;  Mangaluru, Sep 14: Deputy commissioner (DC) Dr K V Rajendra urged public not to panic regarding Nipah virus in the district.

Addressing media on Tuesday September 14, he said, “It is said that a Karwar-based microbiologist, who works in Goa, self-reported suspicion of being infected with Nipah virus. His sample was sent to National Institute of Virology, Pune on Monday. Result is awaited. He has been isolated.

“He works where RT-PCR kits are prepared. He had fever and headache after he got drenched in rain. Under anxiety, he searched in Google and with the phobia, he got himself admitted at Manipal and then later he was shifted to Wenlock. The district administration cannot neglect when oneself gets admitted to the hospital. Hence, we sent his sample and the report awaited. He had no symptoms or direct contact. Any kind of SOP breach was not reported,” he said.


Okieman Comment: I have seen a number of articles concerning this. This is the only one I have seen that mentions him being a microbiologist. Most of them seem to play down the chance that this is anything. That said,....they did test him and send off the sample. It may just be an incident of the "worried well", which I suspect we all have some experience with by now in this pandemic. But, there is a part of me that wonders "If this is loose, will they tell anyone? And if it is loose, what is the consequence of everyone knowing it is loose?" So, I sincerely hope this is just someone that is over concerned and they are being extra careful by testing him.

DJ September 10 report: All contacts have now tested negative at least once, and only 7 still have fever:

So it looks like we escaped from a Nipah-viral disease outbreak this time...

[url][/url] or ; The American Academy of Pediatrics' (AAP's) latest numbers on US pediatric COVID-19 cases once again show a significant rise in confirmed cases in patients under 18.
More than 243,000 child COVID-19 cases were reported from Sep 2 to Sep 9, representing 28.9% of weekly reported US COVID-19 cases, the second highest weekly total for pediatric cases in the pandemic.
"After declining in early summer, child cases have increased exponentially, with nearly 500,000 cases in the past 2 weeks," the AAP said. Children represent 15.5% of all US COVID-19 cases

DJ India warned children can get severe illness from Delta as early as april this year...Indonesia, Israel warned...later on Scotland the US is warning-but in NL schools are open with no masks, no social distance, poor ventilation and Dutch CDC still claiming children get less severe illness...The UK imported Delta from the India-region this year april, may-like many other countries-transporting "Delta" all over the planet ! We did not see a stop in international airtravel after the Wuhan lockdown january 2020....

Stupidity rules ! Stupid kills !

[url][/url] or, President Biden invited world leaders to a virtual summit on ending the pandemic, with a goal of vaccinating at least 70% of the world by next September, according to the Washington Post.
At a World Health Organization (WHO) briefing today, health officials—including several from African groups—welcomed the partnership, but said there are urgent steps countries can take now to free up more vaccine doses for countries that don't have enough access.

Summit goal: vaccinate 70% of world over the next year

In the invitation to world leaders, Biden called on governments, international groups, and philanthropic and nongovernmental organizations to commit to ending the pandemic by taking concrete actions and setting targets, according to the Post.
Aside from fully vaccinating 70% of the population by the start of next year's United Nations General Assembly—a year from now—the goals also address the supply of diagnostic supplies, oxygen, and medical equipment.

DJ; So NOT stopping international variant air travel, NOT stopping spread in public spaces.."vaccines will save us" ....please !

[url][/url] or ; Hospitalized COVID-19 patients were more likely to have autoantibodies, or self-attacking antibodies, than those without COVID-19, according to a study today in Nature Communications.


"It's possible that, in the course of a poorly controlled SARS-CoV-2 infection—in which the virus hangs around for too long while an intensifying immune response continues to break viral particles into pieces—the immune system sees bits and pieces of the virus that it hadn't previously seen," said senior author PJ Utz, MD, in a Stanford Medicine press release. "If any of these viral pieces too closely resemble one of our own proteins, this could trigger autoantibody production."
Vaccinations, he adds, cause significantly less inflammation in patients than SARS-CoV-2 infection.

and on Gabon-Africa; The researchers suggest that the lower rates of severe illness may be due to the country's smaller number of older and more vulnerable people. However, as a related commentary by Igho Ofotokun, MD, and Anandi N. Sheth, MD, points out, these findings must be taken into context with its early timeframe in the pandemic, the country's limited COVID-19 testing, and the study's single-site design.
"The silver lining in this report and the African COVID-19 experience is that the window of opportunity still exists to protect one of the most vulnerable regions of the world from the catastrophes of this pandemic through massive and rapid vaccination," Ofotokun and Sheth conclude.

DJ Overreaction of the immunity system may worsen the disease-but how this works was not fully understood. One reason Africa may have less (severe) cases is a young population...severe disease (at least before Delta) was most seen in older age groups.

[url][/url] or least seven beavers in Mongolia have tested positive for Covid-19, the country's National Centre for Zoonotic Diseases (NCZD) said.

"Workers of the Beaver Breeding Centre at the Environmental Department of the capital Ulan Bator tested positive for the Covid-19 in August. After that, the Delta variant were detected in seven beavers," Nyamdorj Tsogbadrakh, director of the NCZD, told local media on Saturday.

It is the first time that Covid-19 has been detected in animals in Mongolia, Xinhua news agency quoted Tsogbadrakh as saying.

The infected beavers showed symptoms of cough, runny nose, sticky eyes and others, he said, adding that the animals have already recovered from the disease.

DJ The bad news is beavers can catch CoViD...just like some deers in North America...spread in wild animals may produce new variants, spread in non-human hosts giving the virus even more room then it allready did get due to bad policies...

[url][/url] or ; With his job approval rating plunging and the Delta variant of Covid19 still raging, President Biden this evening laid out new directives—including vaccine mandates for companies with 100 or more employees—to try to get the virus under control.
For a group of companies and medical researchers scattered around the world, the speech was yet another disappointment in what has been a year full of them. To them, Biden's speech represented a missed opportunity to promote a simple, inexpensive and widely available tool for dealing with the virus: nasal sprays.

How can nasal sprays help combat COVID 19? The virus and its variants infect patients primarily by adhering to the nasal membrane as the original source of infection, explains Nathan Jones, Chief Executive Officer of Xlear, the American Fork, Utah-based maker of nasal sprays as well as an array of dental care products...

DJ New ways of vaccination may increase the willingness to accept vaccines (as a form of medication). We will see booster vaccines, this pandemic will be here in 2022...So high time to see mouth wash, nasal spray etc. taking serious as new ways to increase protection. 

[url][/url] or ; The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (COVID-19) that is causing the massive global pandemic exhibits similar human cell invasion mechanism as the coronavirus SARS-CoV, which had significantly lower fatalities. 

The cell membrane protein Angiotensin-converting-enzyme 2 (ACE2) is the initiation point for both the coronavirus infections in humans. 

Here, we model the molecular interactions and mechanical properties of ACE2 with both SARS-CoV and COVID-19 spike protein receptor-binding domains (RBD). 

We report that the COVID-19 spike RBD interacts with ACE2 more strongly and at only two protein residues, as compared to multi-residue interaction of the SARS-CoV. 

Although both coronaviruses stiffen the ACE2, the impact of COVID-19 is six times larger, which points towards differences in the severity of the reported respiratory distress. 

The recognition of specific residues of ACE2 attachments to coronaviruses is important as the residues suggest potential sites of intervention to inhibit attachment and subsequent entry of the COVID-19 into human host cells.

DJ Understanding how CoViD19 does start-how the infection works-enables way to stop the infection. 

I did not see a new video from Dr. John Campbell-but lots of other good video's...Both hurricanes/storms and earthquakes seem to be very active. US-China relations are even getting worse...

Time for Music ! [url][/url] or "Summer of Soul" 1969...great music...crazy story !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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[url][/url] or sounds very alarming...

[url][/url] or research has debated whether the tsunami would still have a significant size far away from La Palma and whether the collapse is likely to take place in a single failure, with evidence indicating that most collapses in the Canary Islands took place as multistage events that are not as effective at creating tsunamis.

DJ [url][/url] or  and [url][/url] or may indicate there is "limited risk"...for an eruption-possibly causing (most likely) limited landslides...

Still it is something to keep an eye on...

-[url][/url] or In2thinair warning for several storms...possibly making landfall in the US. He has good info-in his video-on how many storms did make landfall in the US last 1,5 year...

DJ-Disasters are part of history. Some once in ten thousend year events may seem unrealistic, unthinkable...yet they may have happened less then 10,000 years...leaving hardly any evidence...

It is good to realize how fragile our existence is, to enjoy the good moments, be glad with the good memories...

Stay safe !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 15 2021 at 2:49pm

I've been watching La Palma for years. It's a fascinating situation. I'm a big fan of Dr Bill McGuire, Professor of Geophysical Hazards at University College London. In his book "A guide to the end of the world" he dedicates a whole chapter to mega tsunami and in particular to the collapse of the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja volcano on La Palma in the Canary Islands. 

What I like about this particular sword of Damocles is that there is literally nothing man can do to influence the situation, much like a huge earthquake, we can't control it and I find that strangely reassuring.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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KiwiMum, "we" can try to limit possible damage....From taking away rubble-so it can not slide into the ocean, with risks of unbalancing the volcano...To even drill into the volcano as a sort of velve...pressure release. You can park-in theory-all the ships of the globe in a wide circle around such a volcano-so at least some of the wave energy goes into lifting those ships...

But all put together-in a worst case scenario-those actions would be as good as pointless...

DJ-I was thinking myself on why I did write my last posting. Maybe because this pandemic is a-sort of-1 in a 100 year event ? With climate change increasing pandemic risks high speed ? 

Maybe also to make clear there are (much) worse risks, worries, than this pandemic. Once in a 1,000 year to once every 10 million year events are real. It is very, very unlikely we will see them...basically we do not realy know. 

On the risks of a M10+ earthquake there is a lot of discussion. [url][/url] or ; The relationship is plausibly log-linear (in accordance with G-R); if you accept that the relationship will hold up to higher magnitudes, you would estimate the probability of a M10 event in this location at once every 30,000 years.


This is rather scary because it suggests that there is about a 1:100 chance of a M10 earthquake anywhere in the world, in any given year. Note that I plotted the data for magnitude x to x.9 at the location of x - which tends to underestimate things a little bit. Note also that at the extreme end of very large earthquakes (8 and above), the data looks like it might be deviating from the straight line - but there are not enough data points to draw any firm conclusions about the shape.

There are several other caveats. First - the assumption that the model can be extrapolated can be challenged: a particular fault may not be constructed in such a way as to store the energy required for an M10 event, as it will always release the energy before it gets there (and there may be a "stress shadow" effect, which says that after a big earthquake, the chance of another big one is temporarily reduced because stresses have been relieved; this is why this model can only be used "over a long period", and does not accurately reflect the risk of earthquake in the next five years).

Still - one percent.

DJ There is a limit to earthquake strength...proberbly somewhere between M(agnitude) 10 and 11 if you exclude Earth colliding with an asteroid. The strongest quakes in recent history were M9 to M9,5 but that most likely is not the strongest possible...

What is the link to this pandemic ? 

If you would have asked me january 1 - 2020 how likely it was we would have a pandemic at the scale of the Spanish Flu or worse before 2030 I proberbly would have told you the chance most likely was less then 1%...

In history pandemics often are related with (major) wars, large scale social unrest...Of course there were known risk factors early 2020. Lots of international (air) travel spreading potential diseases proberbly one major factor. 

Another major risk was the number of animals kept-the number of human contacts with diseases in those animals. 

What made the picture unclear was we were expecting flu to be the main risk. Like in wars we-somehow-start with copying the last war. We did not expect corona virus to get this much out of control. Both SARS-1 and MERS were controllable...

We were wrong !

-Numbers [url][/url] or 

Global (under)reported cases september 15 was 563,548 of wich 164,509 were from the US. With 10,217 deaths reported worldwide of wich 2,282 were from the US. The UK reported 30,597 cases, 201 deaths...maybe BoJo can live with that kind of suffering...

Looking at trends; UK cases as far as reported -18%, deaths +4%. US cases +0,9%, deaths +22% ( 9,265 last week, this week 11,263 -the US did see 34 deaths per million of its population this week ! UK 14, Israel 20, NL just 2....)

In todays trend Israeli cases +15%, deaths +9%...even with booster vaccines 

-Flutrackers latest posts ;

[url][/url] or least 12 days after the booster dose, the rate of confirmed infection was lower in the booster group than in the nonbooster group by a factor of 11.3 (95% confidence interval [CI], 10.4 to 12.3); the rate of severe illness was lower by a factor of 19.5 (95% CI, 12.9 to 29.5). In a secondary analysis, the rate of confirmed infection at least 12 days after vaccination was lower than the rate after 4 to 6 days by a factor of 5.4 (95% CI, 4.8 to 6.1).

DJ You can increase protection but if you also increase spread/exposure, risk for getting infected, cases still will go up...certainly with Delta(+) !

[url][/url] or ; The high-PTSS profile demonstrated worse psychological scores (global psychological distress, somatization, depression, and anxiety) and worse quality of life (physical, psychological, social, and environmental) with moderate magnitudes. Small but significant predictors of the high-PTSS profile included sociodemographic characteristics and COVID-19 related experiences, thoughts, and perceptions. Most individuals who experienced a traumatic event were not in the high-PTSS profile. For those who were, however, psychological and quality of life measures were much worse. During the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, several characteristics emerged as risks to report trauma.

DJ HCW-ers have been working in crisis mode for over a year-even if the pandemic would stop now-other care would put extreme pressure on healthcare for the coming 18-24 months...And politics looks the other way...Health Care is getting closer to crash. With less people dealing with wave after wave on top of other care...

[url][/url] or ;DJ these tests are not "the best"...(But in NL news do often detect positive cases-may over report positive cases...)

[url][/url] or ; LETTER

Received: 21 November 2017 / Accepted: 8 January 2018

Ó Wuhan Institute of Virology, CAS and Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018


During the SARS outbreak investigation, epidemiolog- ical evidence of a zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV was identified (Xu et al. 2004). Isolation of SARS-related coronavirus (SARSr-CoVs) from masked palm civets and the detection of SARS-CoV infection in humans working at wet markets where civets were sold suggested that masked palm civets could serve as a source of human infection (Guan et al. 2003). Subsequent work identified genetically diverse SARSr-CoVs in Chinese horseshoe bats (Rhinolo- phus sinicus) in a county of Yunnan Province, China and provided strong evidence that bats are the natural reservoir of SARS-CoV (Ge et al. 2013; Li et al. 2005; Yang et al.2016). Since then, diverse SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) have been detected and reported in bats in different regions globally (Hu et al. 2015). Importantly, SARSr-CoVs that use the SARS-CoV receptor, angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) have been isolated (Ge et al.2013). These results indicate that some SARSr-CoVs may have high potential to infect human cells, without the necessity for an intermediate host. However, to date, no evidence of direct transmission of SARSr-CoVs from bats to people has been reported.

In this study, we performed serological surveillance on people who live in close proximity to caves where bats that carry diverse SARSr-CoVs roost. In October 2015, we collected serum samples from 218 residents in four villages in Jinning County, Yunnan province, China (Fig. 1A), located 1.1–6.0 km from two caves (Yanzi and Shitou). We have been conducting longitudinal molecular surveillance of bats for CoVs in these caves since 2011 and have found that they are inhabited by large numbers of bats includingRhinolophus spp., a major reservoir of SARSr-CoVs. This region was not involved in the 2002–2003 SARS outbreaks and none of the subjects exhibited any evident respiratory illness during sampling.

DJ In general corona virus diseases (CoViD) was a well known problem in animals for decades. We did not translate SARS-1, MERS into seeing CoViD as a potential pandemic problem for humans...Underestimated the risks. Overestimated the ways to limit potential outbreaks.

See also [url][/url] or ; Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this “hidden” spillover may help target prevention programs. 

We derive biologically realistic range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. 

We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that ~400,000 people (median: ~50,000) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in South and Southeast Asia. 

These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

DJ Covid19 will not be the last Corona Virus Disease spreading in humans...Risks turn out to be much higher then earlier estimated. 

[url][/url] or today in JAMA Network Open that found quadruple the risk of COVID-19 in California farmworkers reveals risk factors for current or previous SARS-CoV-2 infection in the group, including outdoor work exposures, crowded living conditions, and high body mass index (BMI).
A team led by University of California at Berkeley researchers analyzed the data of 1,107 adult farmworkers undergoing testing for COVID-19 infection and immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies at federally qualified community clinics and community sites in the Salinas Valley from Jul 16 to Nov 30, 2020.
Roughly 50,000 farmworkers live in the valley, part of Monterey County, with another 40,000 workers joining their ranks in the peak summer and fall seasons.
Mean worker age was 39.7 years, 52.5% were women, and 79.6% were overweight or obese (BMI of 25 kg/m2 or higher). Of the 1,107 farmworkers, 83.3% were born in Mexico, 63.0% were married or living with a partner, 34.3% traveled to work with non-household members, and 74.5% worked in farm fields on crops such as berries, leafy greens, and broccoli.

Greater risk than any other occupation

The rate of COVID-19 test positivity in farmworkers was four times that of the rest of the county (22% vs 6%). Of 911 workers tested for COVID-19 infection, 118 (13.0%) had positive results, while 201 of 1,058 (19.0%) undergoing antibody testing showed evidence of previous infection.
"In addition, recent studies have shown that agricultural and food workers in California experienced a 39% higher risk of all-cause death from March to October 2020 than during the same period in 2019, a greater increase than any other occupational group; for workers with Latino backgrounds, the increase in all-cause mortality was 60%," the researchers wrote.

DJ In stead of going for confrontation on vaccines it would be much wiser to decrease risks for infection. Better-less crowded-housing close to the workplace (so to decrease risk during transport) would help. From the article; Nearly all study participants said that their employer provided hand sanitizer, gloves, face coverings, handwashing stations, and information on preventing virus spread at work. But 44.7% said their employer didn't screen them for fever or COVID-19 symptoms on arrival at work.
Workers whose employer gave them information on COVID-19 prevention at work were at 41% lower risk of antibody positivity, and those who were screened for fever or symptoms at work had a 21% lower risk.


commentary in the same journal by Sergio Aguilar-Gaxiola, MD, PhD, of the University of California at Davis; Sarah Ramirez, PhD, MPH, of Plazita Pixley; and Edward Kissam of the Werner-Kohnstamm Family Fund, said that interventions should be tailored to mitigate multidirectional virus transmission between homes and workplaces.
"To design effective interventions for community spread, researchers must address the structural factors and social determinants of health faced by farmworkers and other historically underserved populations," they wrote.
Increasing vaccine uptake will require microtargeting, policy changes, and communication strategies that encourage ill farmworkers to seek urgent medical attention rather than reporting to work. In California, nearly 45% of farmworkers lack legal status, less than half have health insurance, and many have never visited a US healthcare facility or don't know that they're at high risk for COVID-19 infection owing to factors such as high BMI.
"In our experience, testing, self-isolation, quarantine, and vaccine uptake are often economically driven decisions based on fear of losing one's precarious employment or income in the event of infection, isolation, or quarantine," Aguilar-Gaxiola and colleagues wrote.

DJ Also in Europe "migrant workers" are doing "unwanted jobs". "Covid-19 as a disease for the unvaccinated" means lots of children are at risk, lots of migrant workers that do not speak the language, do not know the risks, and think they do not have a right on vaccines...There are a few other unvaccinated groups; orthodox religious groups-but if their leaders are willing to accept vaccinations the rest will follow (Israel has seen it happen.) And yes-there is a small group of "deniers" the US in part in republicans...In most countries this pandemic is not such a political battlefield however !

[url][/url] or ; For the first time in more than 2 months, weekly global COVID-19 cases dropped substantially, as cases decline in recent hot spots, including India and Japan, the World Health Organization (WHO) said yesterday in its latest update.
All of the world's regions saw declines, but nearly 4 million new cases and more than 62,000 deaths were reported. Maria Van Kerkhove, PhD, the WHO's technical lead for COVID-19, said on Twitter yesterday that the levels are still far too high, especially when the world has the tools to prevent infections and deaths.

Sharp rises in some countries

The Americas region reported the steepest decline in cases, followed by Southeast Asia and the Middle East. And though deaths dropped overall, the fatality level rose last week in the African region, up 7% over the week before.
The five countries that reported the most cases last week were the United States, the United Kingdom, India, Iran, and Turkey.
Few countries reported sharp increases, except for Nigeria, where illnesses were up 90%, and Ecuador, where cases rose 72% compared with the week before. Cuba and the Philippines reported modest rises, up 22% and 16% respectively.
In the recent hot spots, cases in Japan declined 46% last week, Indonesia's cases fell by 30% and US illnesses fell by 20% last week. The pace of cases in Vietnam was similar to the previous week.
Six more countries reported their first Delta (B1617.2) variant detections, putting the total at 180.

New UK data on waning vaccine protection

Public Health England yesterday published new data on waning vaccine effectiveness in people who have received two COVID-19 vaccine doses. For protection against symptomatic disease, researchers found some waning 10 weeks following the Pfizer-BioNTech and AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccines, which was most evident in older adults.
Protection against hospitalization waned somewhat 15 weeks after the second dose, especially for the AstraZeneca vaccine and mainly in risk groups. Older people who had a shorter duration of time between the two doses had greater waning compared with those who had longer intervals.
UK vaccine advisors recently recommended booster doses for adults age 50 and older and for those in certain risk groups.

DJ The trends on what is coming seems to be booster vaccines-proberbly sooner or later for all. Also more and more the idea seems to be we will still be in a (sort of) pandemic at least part of next year...Some experts warn that reopening may see more spread in vaccinated resulting in immunity evading variants...The picture I have is both testing and sequencing may be going down while (asymptomatic) spread in vaccinated may increase...Looking at statistics showing global peaks in january, april and august (Alfa/UK, Delta/India, Delta/global) the next peak will be in october-december period. 

[url][/url] or ; Researchers in Switzerland have identified an increase in New Delhi metallo-beta-lactamase (NDM)–producing Enterobacterales, according to a report published today in Emerging Infectious Diseases.
Of the 532 carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) samples obtained from Swiss hospitals and clinics in 2019 and 2020, 141 were confirmed to be NDM-positive—accounting for more than 25% of all CPE submitted to the Swiss National Reference Center for Emerging Antibiotic Resistance (NARA). NDM enzymes are capable of conferring resistance to nearly all beta-lactam antibiotics, including carbapenems, and treatment options for infections caused by NDM-producing Enterobacterales are limited, as they frequently harbor additional resistance genes.


Global flu stays low, though H3N2 rising in South Asia

In a global flu update that covers the last half of August, the World Health Organization (WHO) this week said overall activity remained very low in both hemispheres, though levels continue to increase in India and Nepal. The agency included its usual caveat that flu activity and detection are likely affected by COVID-19 measures and the pandemic's impacts on surveillance.
Flu circulation in India and Nepal is dominated by H3N2. Elsewhere, locations in the Americas, including the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico, reported sporadic influenza B cases, and parts of Africa continue to report sporadic flu cases.
Of the few respiratory specimens that were positive for flu during the end of August, 62.2% were influenza A, and of the subtyped influenza A viruses, 93.3% were H3N2. Of characterized influenza B viruses, all but two belonged to the Victoria lineage.

DJ 1.Reopening means more room for the spread of flu (etc). 2. We did see anincrease of fungul infections in Covid cases earlier, it is very likely other infections will have a chance to spread in Covid cases worldwide. 

If we are not willing to see the problem how can we find a solution ! HIV/AIDS did see an increase in (resistent) TB, CoViD-19 will result in also an increase of other co-infections, just like it did decrease the campains against polio and malaria. 

We have to make global public health a much higher global priority (and not waste zillions in wars !).

- YouTube-ZOE [url][/url] or weekly update on the UK. "Is the UK sleepwalking into a COVID disaster ?";

This week, Tim discusses how although cases are falling, it's interesting to observe what's driving this. ONS data confirms fully vaccinated people make up only a tiny proportion of COVID deaths and  we’ve estimated how high cases need to get in different areas before the system buckles. He also addresses the government's winter plans and what he thinks about them. 

DJ UK R0 at 0.9. In new case 1 in 3 is in the vaccinated group-with less people unvaccinated that % is going up. Just 1% of those who died was fully vaccinated.(Info 3 months old) But still several hundreds of long-covid cases PER DAY in the UK !!!

Increase was in 20-39 y/o now in the under 20 y/o age group. Discussion on (one shot) vaccination for 12+ age group and who needs third-booster-vaccine. 

Tim Spector does not expect (national) lockdowns. Other interventions (regional) may be effective enough to deal with (regional) outbreaks. 

NHS underfunded-so winter surge may see problems in hospital capacity. 

SAGE does expect severe flu-season, BMJ does not...(DJ-Lots of people still limit social exposure, "politics" can reopen-but if you can most of the public would like to limit risks...)

ZOE top 5 symptoms; 1-Runny nose 77%, 2 headache 74%, 3 Sneezing 67%, 4 Sore throat 52%, 5 Loss of smell 52% (UK GOV still not using this list !) Fever is symptom #7...but most checked-so missing lots of cases...

Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or 

Winter hospitalizations will increase ; Eight-week scenarios for daily hospital admissions in England R = 1.1 – green, (is much more possible through a range of many different situations) R = 1.5 – blue (also likely) R = 2.0 – red (a possible outcome, but highly unlikely)

Hospitalisations likely to rise, 2,000 to 7,000 per day next month 

Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) The UK is currently experiencing high prevalence and likely entering a period of growth 

Increasing cases remain the earliest warning sign that hospital admissions are likely to rise  

Highly likely that a significant decrease in homeworking in the next few months would result in a rapid increase in hospital admissions If enacted early enough, a relatively light set of measures could be sufficient to curb sustained growth 

Imperial’s modelling ‘pessimistic scenarios’ which assume a three-year average duration of infection-induced immunity 

Does not consider any variants of concern beyond Delta 

 Peaks occurring in October to December instead of August to October 

Will not be reached without waning immunity or a novel variant emerging 

There is now evidence of waning vaccine effectiveness particularly 140 days after the second dose  

Those individuals vaccinated in late 2020 and early 2021 will have less protection in the coming months  

Third doses and booster vaccinations, which are able to reverse waning of protection, will limit the impact of waning immunity 

Policy clarification Third doses for all over 50 or at increased risk  

UK Chief Medical Officers, advised vaccination aged 12 to 15  

Co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 with other diseases Medium-term projections and scenarios They are neither forecasts nor predictions   

If enacted early enough, a relatively light set of measures could be likely be sufficient to curb sustained but slow growth 

DJ, Governments-around the globe in general-did not show they "enacted early enough". Immunity is decreasing in vaccinated-after 140 days, less then 5 months !!!, is not good news ! Eventhough the decrease is "limited and slow" the risks for variants evading immunity is increasing due to more spread (not detected because not tested !) in the vaccinated ! 

Proberbly a major reason why this pandemic is not far worse is that a lot of people limit exposure, social actions, themselves. 

Another question I have is how vulnarable long-covid patients will be for the flu. I expect flu to be a bigger problem this flu season. It will see less chance to spread but may be stronger if it can spread because of decrease in immunity. Vaccinating more people against the flu (in combination with boosters against CoViD) may limit the damage...

Maybe Israel is indicating NPI-restriction-mix from masks to social distance, ventilation may show to be much more effective !

-Twitter maybe the most important one is in Dutch; [url][/url] or ;

Waarschuwing: Beste manier om nieuwe escapevarianten te voorkómen is: 1. Zo hoog mogelijk vaccinatieniveau 2. Zo laag mogelijk besmettingsniveau Hoog vacc.niveau + hoog besm.niveau: optimaal voor ontstaan van nieuwe varianten —> spoed: breng besmettingen <35/100.000/w (=<850/d)

Warning; Best way to avoid new escapa variants is: 1. As high as possible level of vaccinations 2. As low as possible level of new infections High level of vaccinations + high level of infections is optimal for creation of new variants -> urgent; reduce new infections to <35/100.000/w (=<850/d) 

DJ If we want to get out of the pandemic we need to get the cases below 35 per week per 100,000 of population ! [url][/url] or has cases per million per week ; 122 countries above the 350 cases per million...NL at 898 p/m, US at 3,211 UK at 3,212 p/m..Israel even goes to 6,612 cases per million per week. So we are going for the immune escape variants by not having enough restrictions....

Music; [url][/url] or  C'mon everybody - Eddie Cochran - 1959

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2021 at 12:32am

Josh, the western flank of the volcano that has started to slide is a whopping 500 cubic kilometres. It's a vast landmass and when it hits the ocean, the initial wave will be 2 kilometres high!!!!!! There really is nothing that we can do about something that big.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2021 at 4:21am

KiwiMum, in the worst case scenario (wich is not very likely) the only thing we can do is run to higher ground...

[url][/url] or 

[url][/url] or M 2,2 at 0 km

[url][/url] or and 

[url][/url] or links from the Spanish Geo Services ( in Spanish, somehow the English links have a problem). 

[url][/url] or ; The earthquake swarm has slowed down significantly over the past 24 hours, but it is too early to draw conclusions as to whether the crisis might soon be ending or whether it will pick up again in intensity.

However [url][/url] or has four quakes M2 to M3.1 in the last 2 hours, depth 0 to 9 km... 

DJ Once in a thousend year events do happen from time to time...On top of a 1-in a 100 year pandemic it can worsen the situation. 

I do think it is important people (start to) realize how bad "events" can get ! A cumbra vieja collapse-in the worst scenario-may be several times worse then the Japan 2011 earthquake - very likely starting several Fukushima nuclear accidents, chemical disasters etc and making hundreds of millions of people homeless, jobless, futureless...

To keep a "pandemic link"; in a worst case scenario 2022 (or maybe even sooner) could see variants able to infect all kind of hosts over and over again...The present strategy with high vaccination in combination with maximum-almost-spread by lifting restrictions is pushing for that !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2021 at 1:07pm

Have you seen the excellent lecture by Dr Eric Cline on the collapse of ancient civilizations? Here a link to it

He's extremely erudite and funny, but to summarize his findings, the ancient societies around the mediterranean basin collapsed c.1180 B.C. not because of any one event like drought, disease, famine or war, any one of which, on it's own, they could have handled, but because of a combination of a number of them all at once. The proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. Of the nine prosperous nations all trading around this area, only one was left, and that was Egypt and they were only hanging on by their finger tips. The rest vanished without trace. It's definitely worth a watch because unlike Jared Diamond's book Collapse which charts the downfall of civilizations as they collapsed over time, one by one, Eric Cline is talking about a simultaneous collapse of multiple countries due to global issues.

He suggests that the world today is facing a similar situation with multiple issues all converging on us at once: disease, climate change, war, massive refugee movements, financial uncertainty.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2021 at 9:45pm

Thanks KiwiMum ! I will try to find time to watch the link ! 

I did see other video's on the Bronze Age collapse, amazing how far they were allready ! Also the (West) Roman collapse...they did find writings discussing how unthinkable it seemed for those Romans...eventhough they themselves ended the Greek civilization...did take over Egypt (Cleopatra was the last of a royal house started by Alexander the great...)..

The Romans had five expeditions into Africa, a.o. following the Nile discovering what now is known as Lake Victoria...also discovering Ebola...(most likely) taking it back to the empire....

Pre Columbus America is another "world" that is gone...

Nowadays people find it hard to imagine "our world" soon will be gone. When you get to an older age-think of your childhood-you know the world of the 60's-in many ways-is more different from the present world then from the world of 1910....Changes...


This pandemic in numbers; [url][/url] or ; september 16 did see global reported/tested cases 573,807 -trend per week -8%. The US reporting 151,142 cases, trend +0,4%, UK cases 26,911 trend -22% (as far as there is testing...). Israel did see 6,191 cases - trend +21%...

For deaths; worldwide 9,224 deaths reported trend -3%. The US reported 1,871 deaths, +12% on a weekly basis. The UK did see another 158 CoViD deaths reported +5%. Israel 13 deaths-trend is -20% (last week 191, this week 152). 

Here in NL there was just enough support for vaccine passports in parliament...Based on the wrong idea vaccines provide enough protection. In Münster-Germany there was a party for only vaccinated. Of the 380 people there allready 81 did get infected (trying to find a link at [url][/url] or ) [url][/url] or Party was september 3-no false Qr codes/vaccination passports, also the club followed the rules...Vaccine passports could be an extra tool if there is a good plan....

Israel in many ways may be a "good" indicator of where we are going. High level of vaccinations-low level of restrictions=high level of infections. In UK hospital (I belief ZOE numbers yesterday) allready 1-in-3 cases did get the vaccine. 

What you can expect from this (lack of) strategy is immune evading variants..."can 't fix stupid"-even if stupid will kill us all !

[url][/url] or Ten reasons why immunity passports are a bad idea. On 24 April, the World Health Organization (WHO) cautioned against issuing immunity passports because their accuracy could not be guaranteed. It stated that: “There is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection”(see Nonetheless, the idea is being floated in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom and other nations.

DJ From China to Israel "immunity passports" still see virus spread...a false sense of security. (DJ-My idea was "vaccine passports" -immunity passports may be the better word for it !-could be used in some work/school settings if people had to be there to at least limit risks. But maybe even that idea was to optimistic !). 

So where are we now ? Global wave is going down but Delta variant most likely will go up again if it gets enough room. Maybe local weather will become a major factor. My idea is that we may see another wave starting more likely allready in october then later this year...

There is NO strategy to contain infections in most places. It is good there still are-limited-restrictions on international air travel...Hospitals are dealing with 1-normal care, 2-delayed care, 3 Covid care...with less staff then earlier during the pandemic. 

[url][/url] or (for the US); 


 predicts that #COVID19 deaths may top 400k in 2021 alone, surpassing the total for 2020, if #DeltaVariant surge continues. But there is no fate but what we make—and the fate of our society and our children lies in our hands…

DJ Sending unvaccinated to schools-often without restrictions is resulting in a lot of infections in that age group. India did warn for Delta infecting children since april...

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or present, of the 129 local confirmed cases, 58 people are 14 years old and below (57 people under 12 years old). According to the national epidemic prevention and control regulations, COVID-19 patients are not allowed to be accompanied during their admission. If both adults and children of the patients are positive cases, The hospital will try to arrange it in the same ward.

DJ China did allready vaccinate over 1 billion people...(this could mean that worldwide most fully vaccinated people are now in China...). I would have to look for further info on what age groups they vaccinated, 12+ or 18+. Cuba is going for vaccinating 2+ age groups before reopening schools...Given that even western-very good-vaccines offer limited in duration protection it is very likely China will go for massive booster vaccinations...

China trends; cases +106% last week 185, this week 382 (proberbly a lot stopped at border control-but still limited spread inside China). China had 0,3 case per million of population-by the way China population in these numbers is 1,446 million+ !

China and New Zealand may be the most succesfull in zero-Covid strategy !

[url][/url] or 15, 2021

The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) announced today the detection of a rare but serious case of pneumonic plague in a northern Fremont County resident.

Plague is a bacterial infection that can be deadly to humans and other mammals, including pets, if not treated promptly with antibiotics. This disease can be transmitted to humans from sick animals or by fleas coming from infected animals; in this case, the person had contact with sick pet cats.

Plague can also be transmitted from person to person through close contact with someone who has pneumonic plague. Individuals with a known exposure to plague require post-exposure treatment with antibiotics to help prevent illness. WDH is notifying individuals who may need this kind of treatment.

Plague symptoms depend on how the patient is exposed. The most common form is bubonic plague, where patients develop the sudden onset of fever, headache, chills, and weakness and one or more swollen, painful lymph nodes called buboes. This form usually results from the bite of an infected flea. Individuals with septicemic plague develop fever, chills, extreme weakness, abdominal pain, shock, and possible bleeding into the skin and other organs. Septicemic plague can occur as the first symptom of plague or may develop from untreated bubonic plague and can be caused by the bite of an infected flea or the handling of an infected animal. Individuals with pneumonic plague develop fever, headache, weakness, and a rapidly developing pneumonia with shortness of breath, chest pain, and sometimes watery or bloody mucous.

Pneumonic plague is the most serious form and is the only form that can be spread from person to person. Pneumonic plague can develop from inhaling infectious droplets or may develop from untreated bubonic or septicemic plague.

DJ Symptoms look a lot like CoViD...bad news ! 

[url][/url] or ; We compared PCR results from SARS-CoV-2-positive patients tested in the community in France from 14 June to 30 July 2021. In asymptomatic individuals, 

Cq values were significantly higher in fully vaccinated than non-fully vaccinated individuals (effect size: 1.7; 95% CI: 1–2.3; p < 10−6). 

In symptomatic individuals and controlling for time since symptoms, the difference vanished (p = 0.26). Infections with the Delta variant had lower Cq values at symptom onset than with Alpha (effect size: −3.32; 95% CI: −4.38 to −2.25; p < 10−6).

full article

DJ So if vaccinated persons get infected they may be better in spreading the virus-without symptoms-then unvaccinated. Makes "vaccine passports" to "reopen" even more dangerous !

[url][/url] or

Although smallpox has been eradicated globally for more than 40 years, and the last natural outbreak of this scourge in the United States occurred in 1949, there remain other poxviruses - often carried by small mammals and arthropods - with at least some zoonotic potential around the world.

Among them are CowpoxCamelpox, and currently of greatest concern, Monkeypox (see WHO: Modelling Human-to-Human Transmission of Monkeypox) which is endemic in central and western Africa, and has shown signs of increased transmission over the past decade (see EID Journal:Extended H-2-H Transmission during a Monkeypox Outbreak).

While none of these poxviruses have shown anywhere near the severity, or transmissibility, of smallpox in humans, they are a reminder that poxviruses remain a public health concern. Over the past decade we've seen several novel poxviruses - for which we have limited knowledge - emerge, including:

But most pertinent to today's blog, a little less than a year ago in A Novel Zoonotic Orthopoxvirus Resurfaces In Alaskawe looked at the second known case of a human infection with a recently discovered Alaskapox virus.

The first case - identified in 2015 - was in a middle-aged female resident of Fairbanks, Alaska who presented to an urgent care facility with what she thought was a spider bite on her shoulder, along with fever, fatigue and tender lymph nodes (see Clin. Inf. Dis Novel Orthopoxvirus Infection in an Alaska Resident).

Tests for shingles and chickenpox were negative, and subsequent lab tests revealed she had a never-before-seen novel pox virus. The lesion resolved after about 6 months.

While she had contact with a house guest from Azerbaijan, and there were signs of small mammals around her residence, no source of exposure was determined. The virus was determined to be genetically distinct from other known poxviruses, and was likely locally acquired.

DJ-With hospitals-worldwide-close to-if not allready in-crisis other diseases are "very unwelcome"! 

Emerging infectious diseases are considered such an important public health threat that the CDC maintains as special division – NCEZID (National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases) – to deal with them, and more than 25 years ago the CDC established the EID Journal dedicated to research on emerging infectious diseases.

Over the past 16 years this blog has followed dozens of EIDs, including MERS-CoV, H5N1, H7N9, H5N6, EA H1N1 G4, Zika, Chikungunya, Ebola, Lyme Disease, SFTS, Nipah and Hendra, Hantavirus, Monkeypox, The Heartland Virus, the Bourbon Virus, and many others.

While most of these emerging diseases will never pose a serious pandemic threat, the sudden emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic illustrates how quickly we can be blindsided by an obscure or unknown pathogen. Which is why, whenever a novel virus makes the jump to humans, we take note.

DJ Other infectious diseases that may look like CoViD-with care allready overstretched in very many places-can get more chance to spread then when there is not this pandemic. Certainly diseases in (wild) animals may pose an increased risk. It may get harder to detect-in time-other infectious diseases that start spreading. 

The chances for some sort of pandemic-on top of this pandemic-from flu to "worse" may be growing. 

-Dr. John Campbell on Ivermectin in Australia [url][/url] or  DJ. Dr. John Campbell has the courage to have his own-more nuanced-opinion on Ivermectin. 

My (very limited-I am NOT an expert) view on Ivermectin is that it can/should NOT replace vaccine protection ! Some countries did use Ivermectin because there were no alternatives. Some countries (India a.o.) did claim-the right dosage of Ivermectin did prevent infections/helped patients...However Merck-the producer of Ivermectin advises against use of it for CoViD...(the FDA claimed Ivermectin could be used in humans for some other health issues). 

Also if Ivermectin would be seeing such good results a lot of countries would be using is cheap, relative easy to produce, but (as far as I know) Ivermectin is NOT the #1 in dealing with this pandemic anywhere...

[url][/url] or I expect Ivermectin may find some use in this-still worsening-pandemic. The vaccines soon may show to be "less usefull" in ending this pandemic. 

In my view "living with the virus" -just like living with climate collapse-is a "dead end road". A short term strategy, kicking the can down the road-to leave it to others to make the hard decissions needed to get out of this pandemic-if possible...

I can only hope Ivermectin-or other treatments-will help to contain suffering and deaths...

Are we "at the end of the road" for the "present civilization"? Western dominance of the globe may have allready ended. We "just do not want to see it". Climate collapse may be that far we can not avoid very nasty consequences...Once in 1,000 to millions of years events on top of it may "end us"....

[url][/url] or has the good slogan; "On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"

DJ We are "only visitors" in our live...we all have to go someday...

Music ; Sarah Brightman & Andrea Bocelli - Time to say goodbye [url][/url] or 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 17 2021 at 1:10pm

What really struck me as interesting was the use of Ivermectin as a prophylactic. There is an area of India where due to an endemic virus called River Blindness, the population all take Ivermectin as a prophylactic to ward off the disease, and in this region they've had almost no Covid at all. Dr John Campbell as mentioned the idea of following their lead and taking Ivermectin before you get Covid, so has Dr Chris Marten.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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What if "Ivermectin" in India is maybe a little bit different from "Ivermectin" in the US (and its colonies UK, Australia) ? Could that explain why "Ivermectin" did show perspectives in some countries but turns out to be a problem in other countries. We are talking about the same name but maybe with a slight difference of contents ? 

On scenario's ;

In2thinair [url][/url] or trying to say something usefull on hurricanes in the Atlantic. "Odette" did form-but will turn east soon into the Atlantic away from the US coast...could be going to western Europe. Very likely between Greenland and Norway....Two models GFS and CMC come with different results on the next storms..."Peter" may show up soon, "Rose" early october ? 

He also did hear from the "La Palma" volcano (There are more volcanos on that island-Cumbra Vieja is the possible problem). [url][/url] or showing sept. 17 did see "only" 6 quakes in the Canary Islands-with another 3 allready today...Even if there was a volcanic eruption that would not translate directly into a mega tsunami over all of the Atlantic (not only the US and Canada as some "you tube-ers" mention).  But even 10% of the maximum tsunami potential would be very bad !



The US has been working with India, Japan and Australia "on cooperation against Chinese agression". (Who started most wars ? Wich war did China start ?). Australia did order submarines in France-after talks with a.o Japan (but NOT with the US/UK).

France allready spent 3 billion on transferring their nuclear submarine into a diesel one for Australia-on Australian request...New Zealand does not want more nuclear "things" in its region...

So the secret talks that started summer 2020 (during trump) to make Australia buying US nuclear submarines suddenly presented as "a new Australia-UK-US peace pact" ; AUKUS was a shock for many US allies....

1-France/EU did see a mega military order 40 billion US$ (I believe it is US $ most used here...Australia also has $, Europe has €) cancelled meaning tens of thousends of jobs gone...Another deal broken due to US actions...

The US tried to stop Germany (etc.) bying Russian gas via North Stream, even putting sanctions on companies that worked on the pipeline...The US putting sanctions on its allies because they buy energy from Russia...

France did pull back its ambassadors from the US and Australia...

2-Japan also did try to get the Australian mega order...Now finds out the US picked Australia only as a "special partner"..instead of including also Japan and India...

3-Many countries in the region NOT happy at all with more nuclear activity. Diesel submarines are seen as defensive, nuclear ones as offensive...(longer range). 

On top of that US-China relations also allready were bad. So why now this news if you want to de-escalate ? 

[url][/url] or  and [url][/url] or (Nuclear driven submarines are a target since they are offensive...)

In the short term Australia's "choice" (or how far did the US pressure go-was it a choice ? [url][/url] or ) does mean further delay for new submarines...maybe till 2030...

Also higher costs (they also have to pay France a lot-maybe legal fights may result in that Australia could end up paying allmost as much to France as if they did not cancel the order...Also the other submarines are more expensive because they are from the US (so a lot of corruption) and they are nuclear...Instead of 12 French diesel submarines the Australia now ordering 8 US submarines...

The costs at the end for the Australian taxpayer could explode to over 100 billion US$ instead of the 40 billion...

It is an election year in Australia...[url][/url] or (like Bojo "liberal conservative") has "something to explain"

Will AUKUS blow up NATO ? In many ways NATO allready is a sort of skeleton. The EU would like to have its own army...France will become the next chair for the EU [url][/url] or Will another Australian government start talks on joining the EU ? (They allready are in the Eurovision song contest !) I do not know....

Trump was a foreign policy disaster for the US...diplomacy never a US strong point...The US allready lost Pakistan, Philippines as allies in the last decades (Iran revolution ended that "special US relationship" in 1979...). 

Russia and China are allies. But the US foreign policies are doing most of the damage...


So how do these above scenario's relate to pandemic scenario's ? 

-1 They all show how complicated scenario's/models are...You can think you are "showing strength" with a "New Strong Alliance" AUKUS...but the presentation itself (with Biden not knowing the name of Australia PM) turned out to be a total disaster...

Vaccines may do good on the short term-but ending restrictions with a lot of vaccinated getting infected-on the longer term will see resistent variants evading immunity....

-2 International cooperation is missing...Maybe China is showing to have a good talent for diplomacy...Lavrov/Putin know "how to play the game"....The US does not understand how to treath others as equal partners, keeps breaking international agreements even with its partners...The US has become its own enemy !

-3 So far damage has been limited. But there are "limits". New York Subways under water several times per year may become to expensive...Drilling for oil in the Mexican Gulf when you have to evacuate the crew over and over again also has its costs...The US/Australian canceling of French submarines may have destroyed the French submarine building...creating a lot of social unrest in coastal places where shipbuilding is the major factor. The damage for Australia of breaking a contract with France, going for the US may be bigger then [url][/url] or this far...

We may not even have seen the worst part of this pandemic ! Like climate collapse it may go exponential !

-Numbers [url][/url] or global cases as far as there is testing (basically we don't know...) 565,233 of wich 157,925 in the US. Deaths as far as (under)reported 8,501 of wich 1,938 in the US...The UK did see 32,651 cases, 178 deaths being reported-a "new normal for BoJo"! 

Trends worldwide cases -7%, deaths -2%, for the US cases +0,3%, deaths +14%, UK cases -23%, deaths +5%. 

In global trends China cases going up +158% is remarkable ! Last week 174, this week 449...(no deaths a certain moment you may question that !) In total 84 countries reporting an increase (including Eastern Europe, Peru, Chile...) A new start of cases going up may indicate some mutations-possibly a new variant...Israel has the "perfect match" for creating immunity evading variants high level of vaccines with high level of spread (cases +16%, deaths -10%...)

In general the idea now accepted is we will be in this pandemic (that started in 2019 if you look at studies finding early cases in many places in all kind of samples) at least part of next year. The vaccine strategy will stay dominant "vaccinate till you drop" but as long as we can not bring down the spread-we are not even trying !-it will only result in immunity evading variants...

China and New Zealand are among the limited number of countries that may have a chance of succes in limiting this pandemic-for now. Vietnam (cases -11%, deaths -18%) may be one of the other countries going for that goal...

Denmark did reopen on basis of very high level of vaccinations. So far cases still going down (-31%) but time will show if the strategy of "restricted openness" can work...with border checks etc. 

-Flutrackers latest posts;

[url][/url] or ; In a study involving a case-control analysis of 3,689 adults who were hospitalized at 21 US hospitals at some point from Mar 11 through Aug 15, the vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalizations was 93% for Moderna, 88% for Pfizer/BioNTech, and 71% for the single-dose Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine.

DJ Iran may use both Sputnik-V and Janssen (the Dutch-Leiden name). With over 1 billion Chinese fully vaccinated Chinese vaccines are most used worldwide...

[url][/url] or ; The researchers looked at 432,302 US children aged 2 to 19 years. Prepandemic (Jan 1, 2018, to Feb 29, 2020), the increase rate of BMI was 0.052 kilograms per square meter per month (kg/m2/month), but after the pandemic began (Mar 1 to Nov 30, 2020), the rate of change was 0.100 kg/m2/month. Overall, obesity prevalence went from 19.3% in August 2019 to 22.4% in August 2020.


Long COVID-19 was more likely to occur in those 40 and older, women, and those with at least one underlying health condition, according to an MMWR study today.

Women (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 2.83), those with at least one health condition (aOR, 2.17), Black people (aOR, 1.95), and older participants (40 to 54 years versus 18 to 39, aOR, 1.86) were more likely to have long COVID-19 at 2 months. Black people were also associated with a greater number of symptoms, particularly shortness of breath and weakness, compared with White people (incidence rate ratio, 1.95).
The cohort was made up mostly of Hispanic or Latino people (66%) and women (57%), with 39% being between 25 and 39 years old. About 46% had a pre-existing chronic condition prior to COVID-19. Five percent were hospitalized because of their COVID-19 illness.


One pneumonic plague case in Fremont County, Wyoming, was reported to the Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) Sep 15, according to a WDH notice. This marks the seventh human case in Wyoming since 1978, with the most recent being an imported case in 2008.
The patient was in contact with sick pet cats and is reported to have serious illness.


China this week reported another H5N6 avian flu case, its 19th of the year, according to a statement today from Hong Kong's Centre for Health Protection (CHP).

H5N6 is known to circulate in poultry, mainly in Asia. Human infections typically occur in people who had poultry exposure and are often severe or fatal. China and Laos are the only countries to report human cases.

DJ So H5N6 still looks like jumping from birds to humans....but cases have been going up. It still may become a serious problem if H5N6 is spread in a lot of birds, virus spread via those bird droppings infecting possibly other mammals...For most western countries increase in BMI is not welcome, may become the basis for more vulnerability for all kind of healthissues...For H5N6 see this list [url][/url] or  not good !!!

[url][/url] or ; A new study led by researchers with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) indicates that strains of extensively drug-resistant (XDR) bacteria linked to pet store puppies have been circulating for a decade and continue to cause illness.
The study, published this week in JAMA Network Open, identified 168 patients who had XDR Campylobacter jejuni infections with epidemiologic or molecular links to pet store puppies from 2011 to 2020. Analysis of bacterial isolates from the patients found resistance to seven classes of antibiotics, including antibiotics that are recommended for treatment of Campylobacter infections.

The connection to pet stores and commercial breeders may be linked to inappropriate use of antibiotics and other management practices in the commercial dog industry.
The authors note that, in the initial investigation, which was described in a 2018 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report article, CDC investigators reported that 142 of 149 puppies from 20 pet stores had received at least one or more antibiotic course before arriving at the stores. More than half of the puppies received antibiotics to prevent illness.

DJ Animals are not "things"....for profit. If we do not respect life there is a very high price to pay-we know how this pandemic most likely started in animals...

[url][/url] or ; Younger Kentuckians are dying more frequently from COVID-19 as the state’s supply of ICU beds dipped below 100 for only the third time since the coronavirus pandemic began, Gov. Andy Beshear said Thursday.

The percentage of Kentuckians dying from COVID-19 who are 30 to 49 years old has increased fivefold since May, with that age group accounting for 11 percent of deaths since June, Beshear said.

The Democratic governor reported that Kentucky only has 93 adult ICU beds available and 66 of the 96 acute care hospitals in the state have critical staffing shortages.

“The situation continues to be dire and we need for people to continue to do their very best to protect themselves and their families,” said Beshear, adding that the best protective measures are getting vaccinated and wearing masks, even at outdoor events with large crowds, such as football games.

More than 90 percent of the people who are hospitalized because of COVID-19 have not been vaccinated, he said...

DJ Delta is hitting younger age groups harder, vaccinations-for now-offer good protection (so get vaccinated if you did not do so !!!). Lifting of restrictions is insane....we need both vaccines and restrictions if the goal is to get out of this crisis. "Living with the virus" , just like "living with climate collapse" is NOT a realistic option-both go exponential !!! Staff running out is also seen worldwide...

[url][/url] or pair of diseases for dogs have pet owners and public health officials worried in Los Angeles County.

Dr. Karen Ehnert, director of Veterinary Public Health for the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, noted that the recent rise of cases of canine influenza and leptospirosis “is not normal.”

“I have been with county for 21 years,” she said. “This is the first time we’ve had such large outbreaks.”

The outbreaks, which Ehnert said started in mid-July, were introduced to the county by dogs that came from other places...

...“This outbreak is driven by dog-to-dog transmission of the bacteria in group settings such as boarding kennels or dog daycare, leading to a higher number of cases than what has been seen in recent years,” the department said on its website.

The department also noted that canine flu — or CIV H3N2 — is spreading at these facilities.

“To date, this is the largest outbreak of CIV H3N2 reported in Los Angeles County,” the department said on its website...

DJ Covid-distant-link or just bad luck ? 

[url][/url] or ; In this paper, we discuss two major ethical dilemmas: (1) the equipoise of continuing new vaccine trials in the advent of successful candidates and (2) the maleficence of blinded placebo arms. Accordingly, we discuss six different potential approaches to these ethical dilemmas: (1) continuing with placebo-controlled trials, (2) transitioning from placebo-controlled to open-label, (3) unblinding at-risk priority groups only, (4) transitioning to a blinded stepped-wedge cross-over design, (5) progressing to a blinded active-controlled stepped-wedge cross-over trial, and (6) conducting randomised stepped-wedge community trials. We also propose a decision-making algorithm for relevant stakeholders in advanced stages of vaccine trials

.It is important to remember that the emergent nature of the COVID-19 situation does not justify a compromise on core ethical values. In fact, the discourse surrounding this topic and the decisions made will remain a potent case study and a continuously referenced example for all such future scenarios.

DJ Present vaccines still offer good protection-how to deal with new vaccines being needed and tested ? You have to switch from computer models to "the real world"...Waiting to long may be bad, however using a new vaccine that offers less protection-or more side effects, also is not wanted. 

-Dr. John Campbell [url][/url] or ; UK comparisons - more or less talking on latest ZOE-UK/Tim Spector update. In my opinion main points;

Tim Spector ;

After calling for a plan for several weeks I’m pleased to see the government has launched a booster vaccine programme. (To give boosters to everyone over 50)

the winter plan fails to introduce the current symptoms to the list 

now most people experience symptoms like sore throat, headache and sneezing rather than fever or cough  

I also don't understand why we are waiting for the situation to get worse and the NHS is pressured further before implementing simple measures that would help to bring down the number of new cases and save lives.  

With such high levels of virus in the population we should also still be wearing masks and keeping our distance in crowded public places, as in major European cities where cases are much lower than ours.

DJ [url][/url] or

I'm honestly fed up of being slandered today. I've literally never said this. Stop making up complete lies. I didn't say the ONS report is flawed due to controls at all!! I've been subject to coordinated trolling & been misrepresented repeatedly, and I've honestly had enough.

DJ Lots of scientists went to social media to spread the info-only to see trolling, misuse of that info increasing. 

This is even worsening the social and science part of this pandemic !

Music-Bat Out Of Hell - Meat Loaf [url][/url] or 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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KiwiMum View Drop Down

Joined: May 29 2013
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 hours 59 minutes ago at 1:11pm

New Zealand is a nuclear free zone. We don't allow any nuclear powered ships or submarines in our waters, or any conventional ships with nuclear weapons on them. Australia can have them!!!

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Joined: May 01 2013
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 3 hours 20 minutes ago at 11:50pm

KiwiMum, It will be interesting to see how the [url][/url] or will be influenced by this development...

[url][/url] or ; He also hinted that Australia might host US medium-range missiles that were previously banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the Trump administration withdrew from in 2019. Dutton signaled Australia is open to basing "different ordinances," which he said was in "Australia’s best interest."

DJ Maybe the pandemic could be related ? Cases still +0,8%, over 12,000 per week. Australia deaths +33%, last week 48, this week 64..."Never waste a good crisis"....

More on the "submarine order switch" [url][/url] or Alexander Mercouris, DJ-The main damage may be in other countries willing to trust the US...If the US wants to claim to be #1 it HAS to change its foreign policy !

-Global numbers; cases (with limited testing) -9%, deaths -5% [url][/url] or

When I look at countries and numbers (China cases +175% but with low numbers 171 to 470 this week-no deaths reported...indicating Delta-variant is giving China a hard time !) ;Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia, Poland, Egypt, Canada, Brazil, Laos, Turkey, Chile, (a.o.) all report +10% increase of some of those countries it will be the Delta(+) variant (again) increasing numbers...but with limited testing/sequencing, also limited reporting we simply do not have a good view. 

Vaccinated may get infected-get NO symptoms, still spread the disease...there is no ad random testing in most countries. By now it is very likely some new variants must be spreading. It is also likely immunity evasion is increasing in some of the new variants...

The wise strategy is vaccination AND restrictions...My view is that allthough still people are getting vaccinated every day-in general-vaccine protection of the population may be decreasing. Many countries did choose to vaccinate the "old and vulnarable" the immunity-after some months-will be decreasing...

And YES ! vaccination-for now-does limit risks for severe disease...but it is both the trend of downward vaccine protection and the timing-autumn/fall in sight...booster vaccines may help. 

Countries trying to go for Zero-CoViD like China, Vietnam, New Zealand (a.o.) may do better in limiting pandemic damage. 

If I can avoid getting infected I will do "a lot" for that ! I had my second Pfizer vaccine in june...expect a third-booster within half a year (maybe in combination with the flu shot-allthough here in NL that campain starts next month...).

-Flutrackers latest posts;

Warning-"US politics" [url][/url] or the face of rising demand for monoclonal antibodies, a proven treatment for the virus that prevents serious illness, the Department of Health and Human Services has seized control of its distribution, creating a government bottleneck that will likely delay treatment for sick patients.

DJ Claim is Biden would not send those treatments to republican states....

[url][/url] or a letter to OSHA, USW also asked OSHA to completely remove all references to CDC guidance from the ETS based on its concern over CDC’s frequently changing guidance and fears of “political interference” in CDC’s determinations. USW proposed that OSHA take complete authority over the workplace COVID-19 requirements to increase clarity and consistency in requirement compliance. Moreover, while the CDC is free to revise its policies without warning, OSHA rules change only after a notice period...

DJ Here in NL the "Outbreak Management Team" OMT and Dutch CDC (RIVM) "experts" take their orders from the government in stead of advising the government what to do...

[url][/url] or ;DJ For many reasons it would be welcome if every one leaves the meeting place when this cia-fascist enters the place...

[url][/url] or ; Six African lions, a Sumatran tiger and two Amur tigers have tested presumptive positive for the virus that causes COVID-19. Last weekend, animal keepers observed decreased appetites, coughing, sneezing and lethargy in several lions and tigers. Fecal samples for all great cats were collected and tested presumptive positive. Final results are expected in the next few days. All lions and tigers are being treated with anti-inflammatories and anti-nausea medication to address discomfort and decreased appetite. In addition, all are being treated with antibiotics for presumptive secondary bacterial pneumonia. They remain under close observation and, because their condition does not require they remain inside, staff will manage the cats’ access to their outdoor habitats. Given the substantial distance between the animals and visitors, the public is not at risk. No other animals at the Zoo are showing any signs of infection.


The Zoo has conducted a thorough investigation of all staff that were in close proximity to the lions and tigers. There is no evidence to pinpoint the source of the infection. While it is possible the infection was transmitted by an asymptomatic carrier, it has been standard practice for all animal care staff and essential staff to mask indoors in all public and non-public areas. The health and vaccination status of employees is confidential medical information.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has authorized the use of a SARS-COV-2 vaccine made specifically for zoo animals by Zoetis. The first round of vaccine disbursement will be administered to select animals identified as a susceptible species at both the Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute in Virginia when it becomes available in the coming months.

DJ CoViD-19 in non-human hosts may increase the risk for new variants. By now "Delta" most likely ends up in other animals. I wonder if "Delta" infects non-human hosts more easy-higher R0...Aerosol spread ? 

[url][/url] or ; Some new products originally planned to be launched in Japan will be delayed. The reason is that due to the impact of the epidemic, the garment factory that the company cooperates with in Vietnam has stopped production and the logistics of goods have also been delayed. In addition, other large-scale apparel companies in Japan have also changed their sales strategies because of the decline in production capacity.

DJ The duration of this pandemic-with the growing idea we may be in a pandemic at least till summer 2022-is showing economic effects. A high level of flexibility means some products can be bought, produced, in other locations...But economic consequences will increase the coming months. Logistics may show to be a problem as well...

-Other news;

Hal Turner [url][/url] or keeps updating the "Cumbra Vieja" tsunami-risk. 

[url][/url] or And YES-earthquakes are still going on, southern part of the island may be going down slowly-increasing landslide risks. Groundwater most likely will heat up...[url][/url] or ...

DJ-Once in ten million events happen on some day...some hour...I think it is good to realize that-count ourselves lucky we-most of us-have a "good live". 

In this "mega tsunami scenario" such an amount of water may be "in motion" it will cause seismic events on its own...One cubic meter (m3) of water (a "box"of 1x1x1 meter) is 1.000 kilo. Speed is another factor...Moving at 1 kilometer per hour-slow-is different then moving at 100 kilometer an hour-fast. In a tsunami the speed may be even higher....

When you are taking of cubic kilometers of water in motion (it is the shockwave, energy that is moving) you are talking of insane weights shifting...The Mid-Atlantic ridge may slow down such a movement or it would see "seismic movement"...

Chances for a collision with a larger space object, super-tsunami, super volcano etc are very, very small...but they DO happen ! 

Everything seems to have a beginning and an end..."we are stardust"; just trying to make sense...

Music; Crosby, Still, Nash and Young - We Are Stardust, We Are Golden, We Are Billion Year Old Carbon [url][/url] or 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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KiwiMum View Drop Down

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 0 hours 60 minutes ago at 2:10am

Originally posted by Dutch Josh Dutch Josh wrote:

Vaccinated may get infected-get NO symptoms, still spread the disease...there is no ad random testing in most countries. By now it is very likely some new variants must be spreading. It is also likely immunity evasion is increasing in some of the new variants...

The wise strategy is vaccination AND restrictions...My view is that allthough still people are getting vaccinated every day-in general-vaccine protection of the population may be decreasing. Many countries did choose to vaccinate the "old and vulnarable" the immunity-after some months-will be decreasing...

And YES ! vaccination-for now-does limit risks for severe disease...but it is both the trend of downward vaccine protection and the timing-autumn/fall in sight...booster vaccines may help. 

Countries trying to go for Zero-CoViD like China, Vietnam, New Zealand (a.o.) may do better in limiting pandemic damage. 

I'm glad that countries are starting to be honest about the level of protection waning as I do think many (especially older) people are walking around feeling invincible when they are not. The police here had to break up a party in a coffee shop recently full of people in their 70s who seemed to think because they were double jabbed they could cram in there like sardines. 

As for the Zero Covid strategy that NZ is pursuing, it's only because only 34% of our eligible population is vaccinated. We ran out of vaccines last week but have been sent some by Denmark. They are estimating that by the new year we will reopen the borders and relax a bit. They are hoping to hit 80% vaccination rate but our scientists say you'd have to vaccinate 97% of the entire population to reach herd immunity, which is just not possible. So until then, the government is trying to eliminate it to protect those who are most at risk.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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KiwiMum View Drop Down

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 55 minutes ago at 2:15am

The La Palma situation is a very interesting one. That land slip may sit there for the next 1000 years or it may crash into the ocean before I finish typing this. It'll be one of those moments in time that you'll remember exactly where you were when it happened.

"Once you've decided that something's absolutely true, you've closed your mind on it, and a closed mind doesn't go anywhere. Question everything. That's what education's all about." ~ David Eddings
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