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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 22 2021 at 10:05pm

DJ, 

[url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BYou know what keeps me awake at night? The worry that there’s plenty of evidence on what we need to do to end this pandemic but people in power (whether in science or politics) don’t value it.

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ; Global new reported cases for friday october 22; 458,950 trend +3%, deaths 7,805 trend +1%.

Top 3 for cases;   1-US 82,483 trend -14%,

                            2-UK 49,298 trend +19%,

                            3-Russia 37,141 trend +17%,

Top 3 for deaths; 1-US 1,610 trend 0%,

                            2-Russia 1,064 trend +5%,

                            3-India   666 trend +8%,

DJ-What is happening in India cases -10%, delayed reporting ? Worldwide now 97 countries report increase of cases, 74 report increase of deaths (with at #111 the first country reporting decrease of cases so 37 countries at (around) 0%...US reported 10,301 deaths last week, 10,294 this week...).

Europe cases +22%, deaths +13%, South America cases +9%, deaths +2%...with Brazil cases up +10%, deaths +11%, Chile cases +46%. New Zealand cases +49%.

When I look at twitter/flutracker etc. main reasons for again increasing numbers are lack of restrictions...Another factor may be 20-25% of hospital cases may be vaccinated. Some countries follow Israel in booster vaccinations (Israel cases -33%, deaths -3%). 

Yes it would be welcome if we did do much more for countries we keep poor. If the WHO is trying to "break" the Moderna vaccine in Africa so they can produce their own vaccines more then welcome ! It is beyond shocking that patents, profit, are more important then saving lives, trying to get out of this pandemic !!!

Yesterday I did write 1 million deaths per month could be on its way...that would mean 33,333 deaths per day...On january 20 this year we had a peak of 17,579 deaths on one day being reported. The Delta-India outbreak proberbly killed between 3 and 5 million people in India...it just was not reported...

The WHO came with an estimate so far this pandemic may have killed between 80,000 and 180,000 health care workers (HCW), in many countries these essential workers often try to get safer jobs, better pay, better hours, less risk...

"Saving the economy" is keeping us now in a pandemic for almost 2 years. And it would be very optimistic to believe we can get out of it in 2022...How ???

[url]https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/10/21/2059475/-The-U-K-may-be-seeing-a-new-variant-that-is-more-contagious-than-delta[/url] or https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2021/10/21/2059475/-The-U-K-may-be-seeing-a-new-variant-that-is-more-contagious-than-delta (Link from HoneyBee08-good info !) It is unclear what role the Delta-subvariant AY.4.2 is playing...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#%22Delta_plus%22_variant

 It has been suggested that AY.4.2 might be 10-15% more transmissible than the original Delta variant, but this would not lead to a large increase in cases.[51] In the UK it was reclassified as a "variant under investigation" (but not "of concern") in late October 2021.[52]

DJ, AY.4.2 proberbly is widespread around the globe...but limited testing/sequencing may mean it is not getting detected...Increasing vaccinations and boosters may help to limit the rise in cases however more restrictions-from travel to masks etc. are needed. 

The US is preparing vaccinations for children, booster vaccinations in the US also have started. If that is enough to stop rising cases future will tell. Also lots of other countries went for vaccinations 5y/o+ and boosters...but in the UK they did not start in time to stop the rise...And again R0 of Delta could be between 5 and 8-another 10/15% increase on top of an allready high R0 is bad news !

If the R0 of Delta is 2x that of Alfa/UK and that one was 2x the "original early 2020 version" Alfa R0 between 2 and 4 ? 2019-early version R0 between 1 and 2 ? So-just thinking-15% extra on top of an R0 of 8 would be a jump of 1,2...maybe less then the other "jumps" but still high ! 

Delta is creating a much larger viral load, it can be AY.4.2 is pushing that viral load even further ??? [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator




If reports out of Russia are accurate and AY.4.2 is truly 10% more infectious than Delta, this demonstrates a scary trend. Small mutation with significant consequences.

DJ Here in NL "Delta is 100% of cases"...with limited info on subvariant AY.4.2 ....[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected has 28 countries reporting AY.4.2. Romania did detect 31 of this subvariant-out of 4,131 samples. The UK did so far detect 4,344 out of 1,045,504 samples...Slovakia, Russia, Finland, South Africa, Lithuania, Brazil, India, Germany, Sweden all so far detected just 1...Israel is not on the list-in news thet did find 6 cases and detect 10 others in people arriving from the US (Dr.J.C. in his video on this variant). The US detected 28 cases out of 1,352,476 samples.

Global cases going up again-mixed with unclear reports on AY.4.2 should be alarming us !

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implementedOctober 19, 2021
The Gamma variant of the coronavirus is now the most dominant in St Vincent and the Grenadines. In samples sent for testing by SVG, 24 have been identified as Gamma, 15 have been identified as Mu and six as the Delta variant.

Minister of Health St Clair Jimmy Prince says there has been an escalation on all fronts with more cases being identified, increased hospitalisations and more deaths.

St Vincent and the Grenadines currently has 1,643 active COVID-19 cases and has recorded 54 deaths.
...
As the health minister urged Vincentians to get vaccinated, he also stated: “Soon those of us who are vaccinated will have a photo ID vaccination card. It is in the making we are doing work on that and will soon have it on hand.”

...

The majority of active COVID-19 cases are in the Kingstown, Calliaqua, Pembroke and Northern Grenadines health districts. The majority of cases are being reported in the younger age group 45 years and under, however, in general, all age groups are affected at this time.

In terms of deaths, Bobb says the current spike began in September and the majority of persons who have died are women....

DJ Indicating some regions still do not have Delta as dominant variant.  With very limited testing and sequencing we may be as good as blind.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-until-november?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/918022-uk-covid-19-variant-delta-trend-us-issues-level-4-travel-advisory-do-not-travel-until-november?view=stream ; UK trends cases +18,1% at 50,861...deaths +15,8% at 129, hospital cases +19,1% at 1,051 in just one day...testing 91,403 +1,4% (if over 50,000 new cases are reported out of the 90,000+ tests positivity rate is alarming !!!).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream

Today, CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky, M.D., M.P.H., endorsed the CDC Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices’ (ACIP) recommendation for a booster shot of COVID-19 vaccines in certain populations. The Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) authorizationexternal icon and CDC’s recommendation for use are important steps forward as we work to stay ahead of the virus and keep Americans safe.

For individuals who received a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, the following groups are eligible for a booster shot at 6 months or more after their initial series:

For the nearly 15 million people who got the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, booster shots are also recommended for those who are 18 and older and who were vaccinated two or more months ago.

There are now booster recommendations for all three available COVID-19 vaccines in the United States. Eligible individuals may choose which vaccine they receive as a booster dose. Some people may have a preference for the vaccine type that they originally received and others, may prefer to get a different booster. CDC’s recommendations now allow for this type of mix and match dosing for booster shots.

Millions of people are newly eligible to receive a booster shot and will benefit from additional protection. However, today’s action should not distract from the critical work of ensuring that unvaccinated people take the first step and get an initial COVID-19 vaccine. More than 65 million Americans remain unvaccinated, leaving themselves – and their children, families, loved ones, and communities– vulnerable.

Available data right now show that all three of the COVID-19 vaccines approved or authorized in the United States continue to be highly effective in reducing risk of severe disease, hospitalization, and death, even against the widely circulating Delta variant. Vaccination remains the best way to protect yourself and reduce the spread of the virus and help prevent new variants from emerging.

DJ Belgium will be offering boosters [url]https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/190285/belgian-health-minister-wants-pharmacists-to-administer-vaccines/[/url] or https://www.brusselstimes.com/belgium/190285/belgian-health-minister-wants-pharmacists-to-administer-vaccines/ for "all that want one..."

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926070-nat-comp-sci-climatic-signatures-in-the-different-covid-19-pandemic-waves-across-both-hemispheres[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/avian-flu-diary/926070-nat-comp-sci-climatic-signatures-in-the-different-covid-19-pandemic-waves-across-both-hemispheres

Although COVID first came to light during the winter months of 2019-2020, and reached its first peak almost a year later (Dec 2021), its intensity plunged in January of this year, only to reach new heights in the spring. After another lull, the summer of 2021 saw a rise nearly equal to last winter (see epi chart above).


Pandemic viruses - particularly during their first year or two, when community immunity to a novel virus is low or non-existent - can pose an all-season threat.

Four years ago, in PLoS Comp. Bio.: Spring & Early Summer Most Likely Time For A Pandemic, we looked at evidence that most flu pandemics have emerged when influenza prevalence is low, even though they just about always become seasonal viruses themselves.


While I think there's been a general expectation that COVID would become a seasonal virus - much like influenza - one that is most prevalent during colder/dryer winter seasons, its behavior until now has raised questions.

Yesterday researchers from Barcelona's Institute for Global Health published a paper in Nature Computational Science that finds `robust' statistical evidence for COVID being a seasonal virus, and provides further evidence of its `airborne' nature.


All of which has implications - not only for this winter - but potentially for winters to come.

DJ I think comparing CoViD with flu-even in statistics can get misleading. We could learn from CoViD outbreaks in farm animals. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926066-3-lions-at-indianapolis-zoo-test-positive-for-delta-variant[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926066-3-lions-at-indianapolis-zoo-test-positive-for-delta-variant ; Three African lions at the Indianapolis Zoo have tested positive for the Delta variant of COVID-19 and have been taken off exhibit, officials said Thursday.

The lions — females Zuri and Sukari, and male Enzi — tested positive on Oct. 14 after the females showed respiratory and digestive symptoms, officials said. The two young lions are doing well. The older female, Zuri, continues to be treated for respiratory symptoms, officials said...

DJ Yet another outbreak in lions...does Delta (or subvariants of it) spread more easy in non-human hosts ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926065-increasing-number-of-covid-19-infections-trigger-alarms-in-chile[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926065-increasing-number-of-covid-19-infections-trigger-alarms-in-chile ; Chile's Health Ministry (Minsal) Thursday reported 1,842 new cases of COVID-19, the highest number recorded in the last three months, marking a 53% rise compared to last week and 68% against the last two weeks.

With the 1,842 infections in the last 24 hours, the total number infected people amounted to more than 1.67 million since the beginning of the pandemic, while deaths have reached 37,640 after 12 new fatalities.

Thursday's figures were also the highest since the 1,859 cases reported Jul. 22.

The positivity rate of PCR tests nationwide currently stands at 2.7%. In the Santiago Metropolitan Region it is 4%, while other 10 regions have yielded results below or around 2%.

According to El Mercurio and despite Chile's advanced vaccination plan, the country has the highest number of active cases per million inhabitants in South America, with a rate of 67 new daily positives per million inhabitants.

Brazil comes second with 50 new cases a day, Uruguay 46 and Bolivia 31...

DJ More info on (sub)variants would be welcome ! [url]https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemia_de_COVID-19_en_Chile[/url] or https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemia_de_COVID-19_en_Chile also not offering info on variants...Outbreak only 1 AY.4.2 case in Brazil for all of South America.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925920-ukraine-coronavirus-deaths-highest-daily-toll-since-beginning-of-pandemic[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/925920-ukraine-coronavirus-deaths-highest-daily-toll-since-beginning-of-pandemic ; The Ministry of Health in Ukraine, the country with the lowest rate of coronavirus vaccination in Europe, reported on Tuesday that 538 people had died of Covid-19 in the country over the previous 24 hours. It was the highest daily death toll since the beginning of the pandemic.

The country’s health officials are struggling with two interconnected and vexing problems: widespread vaccine skepticism, and illegal schemes selling fake Covid credentials that people use to get around restrictions intended to slow the virus’ spread, like a new rule taking effect Thursday that requires a vaccination certificate or negative test to board a train.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Ukraine or that site in Russian offers no info on variants...

[url]https://twitter.com/chrischirp[/url] or https://twitter.com/chrischirp ; Paramedics say they are now regularly holding 300 calls at a time when no ambulances are available

and Though the latest phase of the pandemic in England has been driven by (unvaccinated) children, the virus has spread to older age groups, where immunity is waning. 3/4 of the places in this plot are in the SW, which was victim to the unaccredited lab scam. Corruption costs lives.

DJ No need to fear the UK may see a healthcrisis on its way...it is allready there !

-Dr. John Campbell on "Mix and match vaccines" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz0I_v-ihsE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gz0I_v-ihsE ; Sajid Javid, cases could rise to 100,000 per day this winter Sage October report https://assets.publishing.service.gov...

Risk posed by further viral evolution, that becomes dominant globally is a very real possibility Therefore need for: Capacity to monitor for variants Conduct predictive vaccinology 

Winter and into 2022 Hospital admissions above the level seen in January 2021 are increasingly unlikely 

Uncertainties, behaviour change and waning immunity Co-circulation and co-infection of SARS-CoV-2 with Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and influenza 

DJ I think Dr.J.C. again being "over optimistic". My perspective for this pandemic is that is getting worse by the day...with to little steps (NPI) to stop it...again I hope I am wrong !

-Music; Bee Gees - 1968 - Ie Gotta Get A Mesage To You [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYkrW7YpRpg[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYkrW7YpRpg 

My message would be-get vaccinated/booster if you can but act like it offers only very limited protection...There are more then just CoViD-virusses out there ! Stay safe !


                            


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 23 2021 at 11:40pm

Internet problems....

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table and [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected seem to indicate a link between the AY.4.2 variant and strong increase in cases. 

The link is very clear for Europe (cases +23%), however much less clear for South America (cases +13%)...Another remark; South America is moving into summer...

The AY.4.2 sub variant of Delta also has been detected in Malawi-Africa, cases +13% there-while most of Africa see cases decreasing. In Brazil cases-again-+19% with also limited detection of AY.4.2 ....

Global numbers cases 374,274, deaths 5,735...UK had 44,985 cases (weekly trend +16%), Russia reported 1,075 deaths (+5%).

Some European trends; Czechia cases +118%, Poland +92%, Hungary +88%, Belgium +73%, Croatia +70%, Austria +53%, Denmark +49%, NL +43% indicating a very serious increase of cases. 

In South America cases +138 in Paraguay, +37% in Chile, +16% in Argentina and in Brazil-where a few AY4.2 variants have been detected +19%.

The AY4.2 variant may be underestimated...

-Flutrackers etc.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GodsuSLuy5w[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GodsuSLuy5w China Global TV Network (CGTN) in september 2019 Italy may have had CoViD 19 circulating...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america-aa/south-america-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926096-gamma-the-most-dominant-covid-19-variant-in-st-vincent-most-deaths-are-women-photo-id-vaccination-card-being-implemented latest; October 23, 2021
...
In view of the confirmed presence of the Delta, Mu and Gamma variants in the community and the significant increase in the number of new infections, transmission, severe COVID-19 disease and deaths, strict enforcement and compliance with all protocols and recommendations by
everyone is strongly recommended...

DJ So Mu and Gamma still active in some places.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/926113-%E2%80%98flesh-eating%E2%80%99-std-that-causes-%E2%80%98beefy-red%E2%80%99-sores-is-spreading-in-uk[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/emerging-diseases-other-health-threats-alphabetical-i-thru-z/other-aa/926113-%E2%80%98flesh-eating%E2%80%99-std-that-causes-%E2%80%98beefy-red%E2%80%99-sores-is-spreading-in-ukA once-rare flesh-eating sexually transmitted disease that causes “beefy red” ulcers is spreading across the UK, according to a report Friday.

Cases of donovanosis — which causes thick sores that damage genital tissue — have been steadily growing in the region since 2016, and cases are expected to rise, according to data and experts cited by Birmingham Live.

“Figures suggest that donovanosis — which was previously thought to be restricted to places including India, Brazil and New Guinea — is becoming more common on these shores,” Dr. Datta, of MyHealthCare Clinic in London, told the outlet.

Health officials reported 30 cases of the STD in the UK in 2019, but more infections in the past two years could pose a public-health risk, she warned...

DJ Enough other healthrisks..some of them may increase because of this pandemic. 

Limited news...

-Music; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IWxocGm21U[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9IWxocGm21U Bread - Aubrey ...enjoy !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 24 2021 at 3:03am

Regarding donovanosis : symptoms can appear 12 weeks after infection.   One report said it was mostly spread by unprotected sex.  

If people won't wear masks I doubt they would start using protection during sex, or the other alternative of sticking to only one partner.


more details at https://www.menshealth.com/uk/health/sexual-health/a38011607/donovanosis-symptoms-treatment-prognosis/






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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 25 2021 at 9:59pm

Sticking to one partner may be the healthy choice for many reasons....That does not mean sticking to a damaging relationship...As a society we maybe would need more ways to intervene in unhealthy relations...simply because some people for some reason can not take enough care themselves. 

DJ [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/striking-workers-decry-suicide-shifts-pandemic-burnout-takes-toll[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/striking-workers-decry-suicide-shifts-pandemic-burnout-takes-toll In most of Europe a 40 hour working week is seen as healthy...Broken shifts-working 2x 4 hours in care, education etc. do mean less people want that kind of jobs...

A bad relationship=or no relation at all, a bad job do increase stress and with that the health risks...

-Numbers; 335,244 new cases, 5,292 new deaths reported monday reflecting (most) low US testing sunday. The sunday numbers reflecting saterday; 355,450 cases, 5,066 deaths being reported. Last trend cases +3%, deaths +0,6%. Low weekend numbers underline statistics at best can give an indication...

Some remarks on those numbers ; What is happening with India deaths going up 75% ? 

Another idea on realistic total number of deaths. In such a list India would be at #1 with very likely several million CoViD deaths-not the 455,000+ in the present statistics. India claiming 326 deaths per million is unrealistic...If you would make that 3,260 dpm -go for 4,550,000 deaths that may be more realistic...

Brazil reported 605,884 deaths - 2,824 deaths per million. Peru has at present 5,959 deaths per million-would Brazil be doing that much better then Peru ? If you double the dpm/deaths you end up at 5,648 dpm -1,2 million+ deaths...proberbly also closer to a real number...

Russia most likely is also underreporting. With 1,587 deaths per million for Russia, dpm for France at 1,795, Italy at 2,185 and Spain 1,864 and media claims of 600,000 excess deaths+. The official number stands at 231,669 Russian deaths (dying within 4 weeks after a positive test...also the UK is using that bizarre criteria).  So maybe Russian deaths per million 3,000+ ? The outcome of both limited vaccinations and restrictions...not taking CoViD serious...

So in a top 3 I think India would be at #1, Brazil at #2 the US would still end up at #3 with limited vaccinations and restrictions-not doing that much better then Russia...

Russia still would be #4, Mexico #5 with very likely over 300,000 CoViD deaths...

The global dpm stands at 637,6...when 10,000 is 1% of 1 million that would mean 0,06376% of the global population so far died in this pandemic...official number getting close to 5 million...Maybe five times that number would be more realistic...

-Flutrackers (yesterday 14 posts-no real news, with also these weekend numbers I ran out of what to write...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926198-why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-the-coronavirus[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926198-why-was-it-so-hard-to-raise-the-alarm-on-the-coronavirusA bit before midnight on January 20, a Harvard epidemiologist named Eric Feigl-Ding posted a long, terrifying Twitter thread mostly summarizing, and in a few places contextualizing, a new, pre-publication paper on the infectiousness of the novel coronavirus that had, at the time, forced Wuhan into a total lockdown but had not yet been detected outside of China. The context he added was, mostly, alarmism.

“Holy mother of god,” the thread began, “the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!!” That figure referred to what’s called the reproduction number, or “R0,” of a disease: how many people would be infected by a single sick person. “I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with … possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza. Let’s hope it doesn’t reach that level but we now live in the modern world 🌎 with faster ✈️+ 🚞 than 1918. @WHO and @CDCgovneeds to declare public health emergency ASAP!”

The thread has since been deleted, though you can still read a preserved version of it here. It was, for many Americans, if not the first time they had heard of coronavirus, perhaps the first time they had seen a global alarm raised over it. And in doing so, it produced what is by now a sort of predictable backlash: other scientists and science journalists taking issue with it, en masse, pointing out that the paper had not yet been published; that Feigl-Ding’s comparison to the infection rate of SARS was inaccurate; that most estimates of the R0 number were now lower than 3.8. Feigl-Ding’s tweets got more readers than those of his critics’. But those credentialed in epidemiology and public health were much more likely to see the criticism as sober and responsible, Feigl-Ding himself as an irresponsible alarmist, and the impulse to raise alarm a deeply reckless one. An Atlantic story about it was headlined “How to Misinform Yourself About the Coronavirus.”

Two months later, we are, inarguably, in the midst of a global pandemic. ...

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020...ronavirus.html

__________________________________________________ ________________________________

Eric Feigl-Ding
@DrEricDing

Epidemiologist & health economist.
Senior Fellow, @FAScientists.
Former 16 yrs @Harvard. Environment, health & social justice.
COVID updates since Jan 2020.

Jan. 25, 2020 3 min read

HOLY MOTHER OF GOD- the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak

2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing...

3/ ... We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan....

4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be ...

https://threader.app/thread/1220919589623803905

DJ Just like in climate collapse "shoot the messenger"  we do not want to hear the real story...And we still do not want to hear it...that is why we are in a worsening pandemic now...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926197-molnupiravir-%E2%80%93-the-new-covid-antiviral-named-after-thor%E2%80%99s-hammer[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/926197-molnupiravir-%E2%80%93-the-new-covid-antiviral-named-after-thor%E2%80%99s-hammer ; On October 1st, Merck and Ridgeback Biotherapeutics announced that molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801), an investigational oral antiviral medicine, significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization or death at a planned interim analysis of the Phase 3 trial in at risk, non-hospitalized adult patients with mild-to-moderate COVID-19. They report at the interim analysis that “molnupiravir reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by approximately 50%; 7.3% of patients who received molnupiravir were either hospitalized or died through Day 29 following randomization (28/385), compared with 14.1% of placebo-treated patients (53/377); p=0.0012.” Formal publication of the data is pending.

Molnupiravir was named by Kaleio in the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. The primary mechanism of action of molnupiravir is induction of lethal mutagenesis by incorporation of the 5’-monophosphate metabolite into the viral RNA genome. Because molnupiravir is resistant to the proofreading exoribonuclease encoded by coronaviruses, it is able to prevent viral propagation via viral error catastrophe, for which no defined nomenclature exists in the INN/USAN system.

https://www.idstewardship.com/molnup...-thors-hammer/

DJ When you look at the HIV/AIDS pandemic one may see a lot of similarities. Big Pharma not willing to give up copy rights-poor countries that suffer the most (for greed-profit) find ways around the Big Pharma power block...Many smaller countries are also working on own vaccines, medications etc...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926196-new-hhs-actions-add-to-biden-administration-efforts-to-increase-access-to-easy-to-use-over-the-counter-covid-19-tests[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926196-new-hhs-actions-add-to-biden-administration-efforts-to-increase-access-to-easy-to-use-over-the-counter-covid-19-tests ; FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
October 25, 2021


NIH to Invest $70 Million from American Rescue Plan to Accelerate Test Developers Progress Through Regulatory Authorization Process

FDA Updates Regulatory Path Which Could Lower Costs, Make Tests More Available

FDA Authorizes Additional Over-the-Counter COVID-19 Test

https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2021/...-19-tests.html

DJ Covid-tests are easy to get, cheap (2,5 US $ per test ? If you buy 5 in a box it may be 9 US$) in NL...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/926193-untimely-tgf%CE%B2-responses-in-covid-19-limit-antiviral-functions-of-nk-cells[/url] orhttps://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/viral-mechanism/926193-untimely-tgf%CE%B2-responses-in-covid-19-limit-antiviral-functions-of-nk-cells; We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Accepted14 October 2021
Published: 25 October 2021

DOI https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04142-6

Witkowski, M., Tizian, C., Ferreira-Gomes, M. et al.

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 is a single-stranded RNA virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Given its acute and often self-limiting course, components of the innate immune system are likely central in controlling virus replication thereby determining clinical outcome. 

Natural killer (NK) cells are innate lymphocytes with notable activity against a broad range of viruses, including RNA viruses1,2. NK cell function may be altered during COVID-19 despite increased representation of NK cells with an activated and ‘adaptive’ phenotype3,4

Here we show that viral load decline in COVID-19 correlates with NK cell status and that NK cells can control SARS-CoV-2 replication by recognizing infected target cells. 

In severe COVID-19, NK cells show remarkable defects in virus control, cytokine production and cell-mediated cytotoxicity despite high expression of cytotoxic effector molecules. 

Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq) of NK cells along the time course of the entire COVID-19 disease spectrum reveals a unique gene expression signature. 

Transcriptional networks of interferon-driven NK cell activation are superimposed by a dominant TGFβ response signature with reduced expression of genes related to cell-cell adhesion, granule exocytosis and cell-mediated cytotoxicity. 

In severe COVID-19, serum levels of TGFβ peak during the first 2 weeks of infection, and serum obtained from these patients profoundly inhibits NK cell function in a TGFβ-dependent manner. 

Our data reveal that untimely production of TGFβ is a hallmark of severe COVID-19 and may inhibit NK cell function and early virus control.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s415..._reference.pdf

DJ In severe CoViD the immune system itself is "ill" and not able to defend enough.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926192-us-unveils-new-coronavirus-rules-for-international-travel[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926192-us-unveils-new-coronavirus-rules-for-international-travel ; The vast majority of adult travelers who want to visit the US will need to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19 starting November 8.

All visitors older than two years, regardless of vaccination status, will also need to present a negative coronavirus test taken within three days of travel, according to an order signed by US President Joe Biden on Monday.

Airlines will have to collect contact information on passengers to help with contact tracing and store it for 30 days.

Children and teenagers under 18 will be exempt from vaccination travel rules.

... “It is in the interests of the United States to move away from the country-by-country restrictions previously applied during the COVID-19 pandemic and to adopt an air travel policy that relies primarily on vaccination to advance the safe resumption of international air travel to the United States,” said Biden’s order.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/...s-travel-rules

DJ Here in NL during a choir concert 20 of the 150 people-all fully vaccinated-did get CoViD (with mild symptoms-the real number may be even higher). Israel has a rule vaccination not older then 180 days-makes at least some more sense...but do we need international air travel now ? Can we not limit that for essential family visits or so ? 

Virus/variants travel for free-still will do so in vaccinated people !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926190-china-to-start-vaccinating-children-to-age-3-as-cases-spread[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926190-china-to-start-vaccinating-children-to-age-3-as-cases-spread ; Children as young as 3 will start receiving COVID-19 vaccines in China, where 76% of the population has been fully vaccinated and authorities are maintaining a zero-tolerance policy toward outbreaks.

China becomes one of the very few countries in the world to start vaccinating children that young against the virus. Cuba, for one, has begun a vaccine drive for children as young as 2. The U.S. and many European countries allow COVID-19 shots down to age 12, though the U.S. is moving quickly toward opening vaccinations to 5- to 11-year-olds.

Local city and provincial level governments in at least five Chinese provinces issued notices in recent days announcing that children ages 3 to 11 will be required to get their vaccinations.

The expansion of the vaccination campaign comes as parts of China take new clampdown measures to try to stamp out small outbreaks.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavir...c6f99745b3664b

DJ; We do vaccinate young children for lots of diseases. Babies born today most often will have their mothers vaccinated-proberbly may get some protection that way. But again STOP THE SPREAD !!!

Here in NL we have seen "beer-fests" with massive number of people getting infected-often with vaccinations...Vaccinations still help-in most cases-against severe disease-but it may not do enough against getting infected ! (And there is discussion on the viral load from a vaccinated asymptomatic spreader compared to unvaccinated ones...maybe the difference is very small...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926189-namibia-to-suspend-use-of-russian-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-%E2%80%93-ministry[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/africa-ac/africa-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926189-namibia-to-suspend-use-of-russian-sputnik-v-covid-19-vaccine-%E2%80%93-ministry ; Namibia will suspend its rollout of Russia’s Sputnik V COVID-19 vaccine, its health ministry said on Saturday, days after the drugs regulator in neighbouring South Africa flagged concerns about its safety for people at risk of HIV.

The Gamaleya Research Institute, which developed Sputnik V, said Namibia’s decision was not based on any scientific evidence or research.

The South African Health Products Regulatory Authority (SAHPRA) decided not to approve an emergency use application for Sputnik V for now because, it said, some studies suggested that administration of vaccines using the Adenovirus Type 5 vector – which Sputnik V does – was associated with higher susceptibility to HIV in men.

Namibia’s health ministry said in a statement that the decision to discontinue use of the Russian vaccine was “out of (an) abundance of caution that men (who) received Sputnik V may be at higher risk of contracting HIV,” adding that it had taken SAHPRA’s decision into account.

Sputnik V remains one of the safest and most efficient vaccines against COVID-19 in use globally, the Gamaleya institute told Reuters. It said more than 250 clinical trials and 75 international publications confirmed the safety of vaccines and medicines based on human adenovirus vectors...

DJ You do NOT get HIV via Sputnik-V !!! HIV goes via other ways-if Sputnik vaccines would limit protection against other infections it may be related to the body building up immunity-but you would find it also in other vaccines...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926177-cidrap-us-hospitals-took-huge-unequal-financial-hit-during-covid-studies-show[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926177-cidrap-us-hospitals-took-huge-unequal-financial-hit-during-covid-studies-show ; Three new studies describe how the COVID-19 pandemic cratered the finances of many US hospitals, one finding that most federal relief funds went to the already best-resourced facilities and the other two showing the devastating monetary effects of delaying or canceling surgeries.

DJ Who pays for healthcare ? At the end we do ! Either via tax-state run, via insurance or direct from your own wallet...In my idea the benefit of state run healthcare could be getting the best care for the money...But where there is money there always will be people trying to misuse the system...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/892756-discussion-thread-vi-covid-19-new-coronavirus?view=stream latest; 
Well, Publix gave me the booster shot! lol

I felt nothing. So far no reaction at all. It is the 1/2 dose of Moderna.

I really had no choice. I am high risk. I think the best strategy for me is to layer protections.

THE VACCINE BOOSTER IS NOT GOING TO SAVE ME. It is only ONE TOOL.

As I said before, I use maskslimit my inside exposures, and generally use social distancing as a rule. I also, carry hand sanitizer, and gargle with a mouthwash after outside exposure to people if they come into my comfort sphere. If I need to visit a doctor's office, I have a jazzy pair of goggles I wear. I really don't care how dumb I look to others. In fact, one doctor thanked me.

I also listen to my instincts. I was going to shop at the busy grocery store but getting the shot took so long that I felt I had been in the store long enough. About 1/2 of the shoppers did not have any mask on. No one was wearing an N95. I had been in there about 45 minutes so I said - screw it, and left. Nothing solid. Just a feeling.

The problem we now have is that all of the millions of people who got the vaccines earlier this year have waning antibodies of some degree. They don't know if they are protected anymore, or not. It remains to be seen what length and strength of immunity COVID survivors have. Do mild cases have any antibodies?

In the end, you need to evaluate your personal risk and act on it. People have different ideas of what to do and I respect that.

DJ Even with vaccinations as long as the virus is out there it would be wise to wear a mask, limit risks etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926168-doctors-are-often-unaware-of-the-only-treatment-for-early-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/united-states-ab/united-states-covid-19-sars-cov-2-september-13-2020-may-31-2021/926168-doctors-are-often-unaware-of-the-only-treatment-for-early-covid-19There is a treatment for early-stage Covid-19.

By this point, Arana was so weak she couldn't walk on her own. Her husband, a school bus driver and custodian, got her out of bed and drove her to UCSF Fresno, where she received four shots of the treatment, called monoclonal antibodies.

"The next day I could feel a difference. Two days later I could get out of bed and clean the house and feed my children," Arana said. "I really do think the antibodies saved my life."

An investigation by CNN shows Arana is not alone in her challenge to find monoclonal antibodies. Many patients who qualify for the drugs say their doctors never mentioned them, even though it has been nearly a year since antibodies were first authorized by the US Food and Drug Administration, they're the only treatment for early Covid, and studies have shown they can dramatically reduce the risk of hospitalization and death.

The federal government has made efforts to educate doctors, including a presentation by Dr. Anthony Fauci at a White House briefing in August, but still problems have persisted...

DJ Good communications are essential in any crisis !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926124-netherlands-covid-hospital-total-passes-700-to-tie-11-week-high-another-5-700-infections[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926124-netherlands-covid-hospital-total-passes-700-to-tie-11-week-high-another-5-700-infections latest; The Dutch government may impose new coronavirus restrictions to reduce pressure on hospitals struggling to deal with a swelling number of COVID-19 patients, Health Minister Hugo de Jonge said on Monday.

Coronavirus infections in the Netherlands have been rising for a month and reached their highest level since July in recent days, after most social distancing measures were dropped in late September...

DJ Dropping social distancing measures went against any medical advice...now this "government" may be thinking of more restrictions for the unvaccinated...We have 81%+ of 12 y/o+ vaccinated...but a lot of spread came from under 12 y/o at schools...not being vaccinated...There are problems with infections in poor urban area's more or less at the same level as in christian orthodox area's "bible belt"...Booster vaccines were planned for spring 2022...

Maybe vaccinating (offering it) to 5y/o+ , boosters for all six months after last vaccination, more ad random testing may help...And bring back social distancing, face masks etc ! See also [url]https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/25/dutch-government-considering-new-coronavirus-restrictions[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2021/10/25/dutch-government-considering-new-coronavirus-restrictions 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/922030-new-zealand-battling-delta-variant?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/new-zealand-ad/922030-new-zealand-battling-delta-variant?view=stream DJ Very sad to see New Zealand reporting another 111 new cases, trends +75% (I would not be surprised if AY.4.2 is also spreading in NZ...)

A look at twitter [url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculatorLoss of cells lining the walls of capillaries in the brain makes them unable to cary blood—harming the brain. What is left are called "string vessels" and are found in increased numbers in Alzheimer's and Parkinson's 3/ https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-alzheimers-disease/jad00332 https://content.iospress.com/articles/journal-of-parkinsons-disease/jpd140454

DJ Long CoViD with damage all over the body may see healthissues getting worse later on...A 20 y/o that by the time he/she is 40 may have the body of a 60 y/o...

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericdingKids 5-18 currently have the highest rates of COVID in Rhode Island. While many adults are staying safe with remote work options, students are eating in crowded cafeterias in groups of hundreds at a time. 

DJ Young age groups believe they face less risks-but because the older age groups did get vaccinated statistics point in another direction...more and more young people face serious health issues !

#LongCovid is also wrecking our doctors and nurses. Listen to this doctor who got infected in April 2020 and been hospitalized multiple times and now debilitated. This is the price of endemic mass infection COVID.

DJ We may be running out of healthcare workers ! Due to burn-out, disease, better paid-lower risk other jobs...

-Dr. John Campbell-two video's [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY on declining vaccine efficacy (=waning immunity...)

Asking for aspirating is seen as strange...even when for asking things go wrong...first injecting then taking back the plunger is not the job...it is a training issue ! 

Vaccine protection declined by mid-August 2021 Decreasing from 91.9% in March Down to 53.9%

Declines were greatest for the Janssen vaccine followed by Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna. 

Specifically, for protection against infection

Janssen March, 92% August, 3%  !!!!!!

Moderna March, 91% August, 64% 

Pfizer March, 95% August, 50% 

Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection It is not yet clear whether reductions in vaccine protection against infection will translate into similar reductions in protection against hospitalization and death. 

Vaccines remain the most important tool to prevent infection, severe illness, and death, but vaccines should be accompanied by additional measures, including masking, hand washing, physical distancing, and other public health interventions 

DJ Booster vaccines are needed but ALSO NPI/restrictions (and yes this may increasingly mean lockdowns !!! The less we act now the worse the problem is getting !!! AY.4.2 may be a far bigger problem-maybe also for the vaccinated !!!

Another video [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkmXrHNEn5g[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkmXrHNEn5g "Endemic equilibrium cometh"; Somehow Dr.J.C. claims UK cases did go down...I did not see that in Worldometer statistics [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/ 

Some sort of "balance" "endemic" "live with it" nonsense I think is NOT science ! We need to prevent CoViD cases as much as we can to avoid newer variants that evade immunity even better then AY4.2 may allready be doing...

Music; The Bee Gees - I Started A Joke - 1968 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrg1UAixGaM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jrg1UAixGaM good clip !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 12:53am

Good point about not forcing people to stay in abusive relationships.  

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The problem you have is the the world was "sold" on the vax's being the answer.

If we now find that actually they are not, and from what I hear is seems that they are not 'Vax's' according to the pre 2021 definition of a vax they are more a theraputic treatment, then the world has two problems

1. any further claim that 'something' is now the answer is going to be ignored

2. What else "IS" the answer?


If the answer is that the we must maintain social distancing and mask wearing for the rest of time let alone ban foreign travel then you can forget it - it is simply not going to happen.   That in turn means that, just like in ancient pandemics where there were no medical facilities yet invented where the weak, the vulnerable, the old, and the genetically suspecptible die from the virus and the rest who can fight it off continue that is exactly what is going to happen now.

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I don't know what bill of sale you were sold in your neck of the woods, cn65, but the one I bought was that the vaccine would save lives.  It has, except if one has refused to be vaccinated.

The last statistics I saw were along the lines of 97% of Covid deaths, 95% of hospitalizations and 94% of the overall cases in the last four or five months were among the unvaccinated.  That means 3%, 5% and 6%, respectively, were vaccinated.

I don't know what answer you were looking for, but the promise I was given delivered.

But, see for yourself - https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/95119

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DJ,

If vaccine protection [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY&t=477s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RerKFYCVFVY&t=477s Dr. John Campbell ; Specifically, for protection against infection Janssen March, 92% August, 3% Moderna March, 91% August, 64% Pfizer March, 95% August, 50% Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection

then there is a problem ! 

[url]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1[/url] or https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.10.13.21264966v1

   Abstract

National data on COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough infections is inadequate but urgently needed to determine U.S. policy during the emergence of the Delta variant. We address this gap by comparing SARS CoV-2 infection by vaccination status from February 1, 2021 to August 13, 2021 in the Veterans Health Administration, covering 2.7% of the U.S. population. Vaccine protection declined by mid-August 2021, decreasing from 91.9% in March to 53.9% (p<0.01, n=619,755). Declines were greatest for the Janssen vaccine followed by Pfizer–BioNTech and Moderna. Patterns of breakthrough infection over time were consistent by age, despite rolling vaccine eligibility, implicating the Delta variant as the primary determinant of infection. Findings support continued efforts to increase vaccination and an immediate, national return to additional layers of protection against infection.

DJ There have been warnings over and over you can NOT get out of this pandemic with only vaccines-yet that turned out to be the choice lots of governments de facto did. 

The out come a.o. is the AY.4.2 Delta sub-variant....[url]https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ/status/1452900753035698176/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/BertMulderCWZ/status/1452900753035698176/photo/1 showing mortality with VUI-21oct-1 is 0,72% other Delta 0,54% with limited numbers 62 VUI-21oct-1/AY.4.2 and 3,813 Delta patients. 

Yes vaccines make a difference in severe illness but vaccines did NOT stop this pandemic...and by that we may see immunity evading new variants (AY.4.2 could be a forewarning ). 

The answer will be better vaccines if possible....otherwise "people have to get a lot less social" ....In the short term the virus is getting more mean it looks like not milder ! 

In the best scenario's-with massive vaccinations & boosters we only can buy time before the virus will get problematic again....

Just my opinion...I am not an expert (or neutral, objective etc...) 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 3:47pm

The thing is  vaccine will protect from this variant,and maybe a few mutations on,

However booster shots every year will become part of life as is the flu vaccine which we all take for granted......

Vaccines for those countries that can afford it , are the way out of the pandemic,

Unfortunately many countries cannot possibly vaccinated all their citizens, therefore mutations/variants will never end ,the only hope is a mutation that is relatively harmless comes forth,

Can't see that happening though.....

Partially vaccinated people are the  danger here ,as the virus will become more resistant......

Not rocket science......

Just virology......

Take care all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰πŸ’‰

P.S.DJ,you are correct the vaccine didn't stop the pandemic,it was well on its way before we got a vaccine off the drawing board.

galls me to say , thankfully warp speed promoted by trump ,got the vaccine we have now...

Which his supporters are refusing to take πŸ€”πŸ€”πŸ€”


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 10:01pm

DJ, What I like from a title as "scenario's" it is very elastic-you can discuss a lot of things...relate them to this pandemic to get a different view from another corner...

Relations do matter in times of crises. It is also a testcase for relations. I do not agree with the idea that "a good relation is the outcome of hard work (some even include "sacrifice" in it)". A relation "works" or it does not ! If it is a "hard job" maybe it is not such a good relation....

People-like most other animals-like company within certain limits. In this pandemic a partner, children/pets can continu some sort of social life when the "outdoor activity" is ending up in a parking space....

People in a relation are believed-studies indicate-to have less stress, live healthier and longer...A good relation can prevent some unwise actions in a good scenario...But some people may be happier with a cat or dog then with another fellow human...

Since people get older relations have to last longer. If people die at age 80+ it may take a strong relation that can deal with 60 years sharing eachothers live...But I think live is about sharing, caring...maybe that gives some meaning to our presence on this globe...

 Another item on this forum-also in scenario's is vaccines, politics, US.....how Americans mix up vaccines, masks with politics to again fight eachother....I believe Trump is double vaccinated, he paid for vaccine development (without limiting profits-cheaper vaccines, non-profit, would reach more people-a very welcome effect during a pandemic !) yet still a lot of his followers are anti CoViD vaccines while vaccinations are not new...quite old ! Masks became political statements in the US....

Portugal managed to keep politics out of vaccinations...and has one of the highest levels 90%+ 12y/o+ and yes it matters ! But cases go up 17% in Portugal-just a reality check....Since 90% vaccination giving 80% protection (at best) on a population of about 10 million ends up (80% of 9 million=) 7,2 million being protected still 2,8 million not getting enough protection...

So maybe science can help....

Big Pharma never claimed vaccines protected 100% against infections. With variants having a R0 of 5 to 8+ you would need "perfect matching vaccines"...well, the vaccines being developed where made to match the early variant of CoViD....not the new variants...

With in most countries (even the US !!!) in the "rich West" having 50%+ of the adults vaccinated-YES-a certain percentage of people testing positive, getting ill, on ICU or even dying from CoViD will be in the vaccinated group...it is statistics...

Certainly in older age groups immunity does not do such a great job, lots of people do not have such a good immunity to begin with...Vaccine immunity is getting weaker in months not years...Natural immunity turned out not to survive variants...lots of people (Brazil, Iran studies) did get infected more then once...So the hope-like with SARS-1-of long lasting "natural" immunity also has gone... 

So what is waiting ? 

[url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=AY.4.2&loc=IND&loc=GBR&loc=USA&selected , [url]https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=AY.4.2[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=AY.4.2 Delta+ AY.4.2 is waiting...DJ-I see correlations between AY.4.2 detections and explosive increase of cases in the weekly trends...

[url]https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/early-influenza-cases-indicate-possibility-severe-upcoming-season-elderly[/url] or https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/news-events/early-influenza-cases-indicate-possibility-severe-upcoming-season-elderly A-H3N2 (good in ignoring flu-vaccines) is "happy to join the party"....

So it may be hard to distinguish between flu-deaths and CoViD deaths...lots of people may have both....

On top of that I notice an increase of news on CoViD in (Zoo)animals...giving an increase of new variants...

Healthcare-still ignored and mistreated by politics-(they do not sponsor politicians) is at breaking point. To put it in hard, but clear words...over 1% of global healthcare workers proberbly allready did die in this pandemic !!! A lot of experienced doctors, nurses are dead !!! It will take more then 20 years experience to replace them...

Public jobs did become high risk low pay jobs...underlining this pandemic is part of a far bigger problem !!!

What kind of civilization, what sort of society do we want if we do not want to pay a decent income for public duties, public jobs ? Are we that blind ????

Do we no longer need healthcare, education, police ? For that matter is every supermarket worker "replaceable" ? Are we-as civilization-not getting "very much out of balance " ????

There is a lot of similarity between this pandemic and climate "change" (lets call a house fire a "changing proces" ) with the UNEP indicating the present plans to keep global (IPEC numbers, allready unrealistic) temperature rise below 1,5C would indicate a temperature rise of 2,7c...

Humans may have to redefine themselves !!!

I am a human...more then I am Dutch, a gender, a skincolour, a political choice...If we want to survive better start thinking !!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 10:57pm

DJ, 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ ; During the weekend numbers stayed below the 400,000 mark-mainly because of a lack of testing in several countries. 

The numbers for monday-showing up in tuesday results (october 26) show 427,713 new cases, trend +3% (worldwide that is !). Reported deaths 7,552 trend +0,7%...for both numbers we may see ourselve as very lucky if the real number is "only" twice as high...

Massive, ad random testing is proberbly only done in China. Putting a city of 4 million in lockdown when they detect 6 new cases...Why do we keep failing to test ? We proberbly miss as good as all asymptomatic and most mild cases...here in NL less then 50% of the population would go for a (public) test when they have a cold...

If you do not test you do not find cases. If you have no case you have no samples. If you have no samples you do not have any idea on the variants. And that by choice after allmost 2 years in this pandemic....

Top 3 for cases; US 69,634 (-14%), UK 40,954 (0%), Russia 36,446 (+12%) all with at best limited testing...

Top 3 for deaths; US still at #1 with 1,451 people dying from CoVid trend -19%. Russia is getting ready to become number one with 1,106 deaths reported, trend +7%. Ukraine at #3 with 734 deaths-trend +56%...

A note India trend for deaths is +105%, "only" reporting 584 deaths yesterday...NL reporting deaths trend is +60%...but in real numbers I hope "we" can stay out of a global top ten...

Still looking at "developing countries" - the countries we keep poor (like underpaying public work etc..it is by choice !) in statistics seem to do a decent job...Of course if you do net test you will not find cases, if you do not sequence you will not find variants...

Africa cases keep going down -24%, deaths -3%...South Africa cases -34%, however deaths +28%...Egypt cases +1%, deaths allready +8%. Nigeria cases +28%, deaths -44%, Kenya cases -26%, deaths -21%...

What part of these number paint a realistic picture and what part is useless ? If the trends would at least offer some indications it would be more then welcome !

South America cases +9%, deaths -7%. Chile cases +29%, Colombia +15%, Ecuador +14%, Brazil +12%, Argentina, Bolivia +11%...with limited sequencing most likely Delta (and Delta+/AY.4.2) is spreading ? 

Asia cases -8%, deaths +9% (most the outcome of India +105% increase in deaths). China cases increase with 98%...but in real numbers 269 this week, last week 136 cases an average western town is doing worse....

Maldives +46%, Afghanistan +34% (how much testing is left there ? I hope there is still some basic healthcare for the people !),  Armenia +33%, Qatar +33%, Nepal +28%, Jordan, Laos +13%, Taiwan +9%, Vietnam +8%...

Indonesia -26%, Philippines -30%, Bangladesh also -30%, Pakistan -31%, Israel -38%, Japan-42%...

On vaccinations many countries following Israeli ideas of vaccinating younger age groups and booster vaccines...But it is getting pointless if that does not used to drive the R0 close to 0,1....

So the choice we now face "living with the virus" (as if there are no variants...and living is a choice...) wich in fact means letting this pandemic getting worse or-finally-deal with it ! 

We can NOT survive "climate change" , neither can we survive "living with this mutating virus"...We give people who stand in the way of solving problems much better pay then those in public jobs...

-Flutrackers etc. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926419-virology-dynamics-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-voc-in-bangladesh-during-the-first-half-of-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926419-virology-dynamics-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-voc-in-bangladesh-during-the-first-half-of-2021 ; Abstract

Bangladesh is the second-worst-affected country in South Asia by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The aim of this study is to examine genome sequences from Bangladesh from January 2021 to June 2021 in order to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 VOC and the clades or lineages that are prevalent in the country. 

Within the study timeframe, at least eight Nextstrain clades were found: 20A, 20B, 20C, 20H (Beta, V2), 20I (Alpha, V1), 20 J (Gamma, V3), 21A (Delta), 21D (Eta), and six GISAID clades: four main (G, GH, GR, GRY) and two minors (GV, O) with an introduction of VOC B.1.1.7/Alpha, B.1.351/Beta and B.1.617.2/Delta. 

The introduction and recent occurrence of VOCs with substantial alterations in the receptor binding site of spike protein (K417 N, K417T, L452R, T478K, E484K, S494P, N501Y) are of particular importance. 

Specifically, VOC B.1.617.2/Delta has surpassed all prior VOCs in Bangladesh, posing a challenge to the existing disease management.

DJ Outbreak has 6 AY.4.2 cases in Bangladesh...it is not "just one virus" but  a "fast growing family of virusses"!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926364-russia-many-people-who-became-infected-after-vaccination-with-sputnik-v-actually-bought-a-qr-code-%E2%80%93-rossiyskaya-gazeta[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926364-russia-many-people-who-became-infected-after-vaccination-with-sputnik-v-actually-bought-a-qr-code-%E2%80%93-rossiyskaya-gazetaOctober 25, 2021
Many seriously ill COVID-19, who say that they became infected, despite being vaccinated with Sputnik V, actually bought a certificate, said the head of the Gamaleya Research Center for Electrochemistry, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences Alexander Gintsburg. The scientist even named the proportion of such patients – 80%, and explained that it is not difficult to identify the falsely vaccinated, since it is possible to conduct an analysis for the presence of drug markers in them.

“If the allegedly vaccinated Sputnik V gets seriously ill, as the data shows, these are people who, unfortunately, took advantage of the fake certificates they bought. We see that people are missing markers [ΠΊ Π²Π°ΠΊΡ†ΠΈΠ½Π΅] in 80% of cases, “the scientist told reporters...

DJ In some countries the "vaccine passport" is a QR-code (on a phone or in paper) without proper ID check this simply does not work...(you can download QR codes from the internet...)

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926363-israeli-physicians-scientists-advise-fda-of-%E2%80%98severe-concerns%E2%80%99-regarding-reliability-and-legality-of-official-israeli-covid-vaccine-data[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/middle-east-aa/middle-east-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926363-israeli-physicians-scientists-advise-fda-of-%E2%80%98severe-concerns%E2%80%99-regarding-reliability-and-legality-of-official-israeli-covid-vaccine-dataAn independent Israeli group of physicians, lawyers, scientists, and researchers called the Professional Ethics Front today advised the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regarding the upcoming FDA discussion on administering COVID-19 vaccines to children aged 5-11, expressing “severe concerns” regarding the reliability and legality of official Israeli COVID vaccine data.

The letter is signed by Dr. Sorin Schapira, MBA, Eitan Marchand, Dr. Moran Kronenberg, Dr. Sergei Bianover, Ph.D, Prof. Alon Warburg, Dr. Boaz Ilan, Prof. Eti Einhorn, Dr. Daniel Mishori, Adv. Orly Yaron, Prof. Natti Ronel, Dr. Ety Elisha, Adv. Dana Kovalskiy, Adv. Galit Polatchek, Adv. Yoram Morim, Dr. Yaffa Shir-Raz, Adv. Yossi Bitton, Adv. Valentina Nelin, Dr. Ilan Makover, MD, Osnat Navon, Dr. Itsik Vorgaft, and Dr. Yael Stein, MD.

“We are aware that the state of Israel is perceived as ‘the world laboratory’ regarding the safety and efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, as reflected by statements made by Dr. Albert Bourla, Dr. Anthony Fauci, and other senior figures in leading health authorities throughout the world,” the letter reads. “It is therefore our understanding that the data and information coming from Israel play a crucial role in critical decision-making processes in regards to COVID-19 vaccination policies. We thus see it of utmost importance to convey a message of warning and raise our major concerns regarding potential flaws in the reliability of the Israeli data with respect to the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine, as well as many significant legal and ethical violations that accompany the data collection processes.”...

DJ; Israel may end up as testcase for strategies...if things do not work out Israel pays a price for being in the frontline.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/926347-federal-gov-pays-university-750k-to-create-tool-that-warns-journalists-against-publishing-polarizing-content[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/internet-communication/internet-communication-aa/926347-federal-gov-pays-university-750k-to-create-tool-that-warns-journalists-against-publishing-polarizing-content ; The National Science Foundation (NSF) provided a $750,000 grant to Temple University researchers for developing a product that tracks local journalism cycles, which is part of their new "Trust & Authenticity in Communication Systems" initiative.

The “America's Fourth Estate at Risk: A System for Mapping the (Local) Journalism Life Cycle to Rebuild the Nation's News Trust” project aims to create a data-based tool that informs journalists when publishing content might result in "negative unintended outcomes" like "the triggering of uncivil, polarizing discourse, audience misinterpretation, the production of misinformation, and the perpetuation of false narratives."

The researchers hope to help journalists measure the long-term communication impact of stories, extending beyond existing metrics such as initial reactions, likes, and shares.

In an interview with Campus Reform, grant principal investigator and Temple University professor Eduard Dragut said the team will “use natural language processing algorithms along with social networking tools to mine the communities where [misinformation] may happen.”

“You can imagine that each news article is usually, or actually almost all the time, accompanied by user comments and reactions on Twitter. One goal of the project is to retrieve those and then use natural language processing tools or algorithms to mine and recommend to some users [that] this space of talking, this set of tweets, which may lead to a set of people, like a sub-community, where this article is used for wrong reasons,” he said...

DJ Is this NOT media-control ? Do journalists not have a duty to "produce" news that has a link to reality ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926345-cidrap-who-advisors-say-covid-19-pandemic-far-from-over[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/local-regional-communities-and-organizations/cidrap/926345-cidrap-who-advisors-say-covid-19-pandemic-far-from-over ; After reviewing the latest COVID-19 developments last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) emergency committee said the pandemic is far from over, though countries are making progress in rolling out vaccines and treatments.
The group of outside advisors met on Oct 22 by video conference for the ninth time and unanimously agreed that the situation still warrants a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC), which was declared on Jan 30, 2020. The group typically meets every 3 months or more often as needed.

Concerns remain about Africa's access

In a statement released today on its deliberations, the group raised concerns about Africa's challenges in accessing enough vaccines, tests, and treatments and in monitoring COVID-19 spread, given that many countries have gaps in lab capacity and genomic sequencing.
The committee also said there's a critical need for all countries to use all tools at their disposal to ease the pandemic's many impacts.
Committee members modified and extended most of their temporary recommendations but added a new one that supports uptake of WHO-recommended treatments by addressing access and affordability.

DJ; Vaccines-at best-are part of the solution ! Why international airtravel did restart-spreading variants also via vaccinated people ? Why most countries test-at best-only those with symptoms while we know (since 2020-CDC) a major part of the spread (CDC 59%) goes without symptoms...Why did it take so long to start (thinking of) vaccinating children ? Boostershots ? International strategy ? 

If statistics give an indication the hardest hit countries may NOT be in Africa...India, Brazil, US, Russia, UK...In the list of deaths per million South Africa ends up at #52 as the first African country...Are the statistics/testing that bad ? Or does Africa show it is better in dealing with healthissues with limited means...since they have been doing so for decades ! 

Maybe we could learn something from Africa ? What is the real situation in Africa with CoViD ?

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/926291-pathogens-emerging-mutations-in-nsp1-of-sars-cov-2-and-their-effect-on-the-structural-stability[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/genetics-aa/926291-pathogens-emerging-mutations-in-nsp1-of-sars-cov-2-and-their-effect-on-the-structural-stability ; Abstract

The genome of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) encodes 16 non-structural (Nsp) and 4 structural proteins. 

Among the Nsps, Nsp1 inhibits host gene expression and also evades the immune system. This protein has been proposed as a target for vaccine development and also for drug design. 

Owing to its important role, the current study aimed to identify mutations in Nsp1 and their effect on protein stability and flexibility. 

This is the first comprehensive study in which 295,000 complete genomes have been screened for mutations after alignment with the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome (Accession NC_045512), using the CoVsurver app. 

The sequences harbored 933 mutations in the entire coding region of Nsp1. The most frequently occurring mutation in the 180-amino-acid Nsp1 protein was R24C (n = 1122), followed by D75E (n = 890), D48G (n = 881), H110Y (n = 860), and D144A (n = 648). 

Among the 933 non-synonymous mutations, 529 exhibited a destabilizing effect. Similarly, a gain in flexibility was observed in 542 mutations. The majority of the most frequent mutations were detected in the loop regions. 

These findings imply that Nsp1 mutations might be useful to exploit SARS-CoV-2's pathogenicity. Genomic sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 on a regular basis will further assist in analyzing variations among the drug targets and to test the diagnostic accuracy. 

This wide range of mutations and their effect on Nsp1's stability may have some consequences for the host's innate immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and also for the vaccines' efficacy. 

Based on this mutational information, geographically strain-specific drugs, vaccines, and antibody combinations could be a useful strategy against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

DJ In "war terms" know your enemy...In pandemic terms know the virus...the weak spots where vaccines may have a function...We need much more research-much less risk denial !

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926290-pathogens-persistence-of-antibody-responses-to-the-sars-cov-2-in-dialysis-patients-and-renal-transplant-recipients-recovered-from-covid-19[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926290-pathogens-persistence-of-antibody-responses-to-the-sars-cov-2-in-dialysis-patients-and-renal-transplant-recipients-recovered-from-covid-19 ; Abstract

Nephropathic subjects with impaired immune responses show dramatically high infection rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This work evaluated the ability to acquire and maintain protective antibodies over time in 26 hemodialysis patients and 21 kidney transplant recipients. The subjects were followed-up through quantitative determination of circulating SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG and neutralizing antibodies in the 6-month period after clinical and laboratory recovery. A group of 143 healthcare workers with no underlying chronic pathologies or renal diseases recovered from COVID was also evaluated. In both dialysis and transplanted patients, antibody titers reached a zenith around the 3rd month, and then a decline occurred on average between the 270th and 300th day. Immunocompromised patients who lost antibodies around the 6th month were more common than non-renal subjects, although the difference was not significant (38.5% vs. 26.6%). Considering the decay of antibody levels below the positivity threshold (15 AU/mL) as "failure", a progressive loss of immunisation was found in the overall population starting 6 months after recovery. A longer overall antibody persistence was observed in severe forms of COVID-19 (p = 0.0183), but within each group, given the small number of patients, the difference was not significant (dialysis: p = 0.0702; transplant: p = 0.1899). These data suggest that immunocompromised renal patients recovered from COVID-19 have weakened and heterogeneous humoral responses that tend to decay over time. 

Despite interindividual variability, an association emerged between antibody persistence and clinical severity, similar to the subjects with preserved immune function.

DJ It did take more time but this group of patients did manage to get rid of the virus within a year...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926256-environ-res-the-global-transmission-of-new-coronavirus-variants[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/-2019-ncov-new-coronavirus/-2019-ncov-studies-research-academia/epidemiology/926256-environ-res-the-global-transmission-of-new-coronavirus-variants ; Abstract

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused tremendous losses to the world. This study addresses the impact and diffusion of the five major new coronavirus variants namely Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Eta, and Delta lineage. 

The results of this study indicate that Africa and Europe will be affected by new coronavirus variants the most compared with other continents. The comparative analysis indicates that vaccination can contain the spread of the virus in most of the continent, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as restriction on gatherings and close public transport, will effectively curb the pandemic, especially in densely populated continents.

 According to our Global Prediction System of COVID-19 Pandemic, the diffusion of delta lineage in the US shows seasonal oscillation characteristics, and the first wave will occur in October 2021, with the record of 323,360, and followed by a small resurgence in April 2022, with the record of 184,196, while the second wave will reach to 232,622 cases in October 2022. 

Our study will raise the awareness of new coronavirus variants among the public, and will help the governments make appropriate directives to cope with the new coronavirus variants.

DJ (Article [url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121015413?via%3Dihub[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935121015413?via%3Dihub  Lets get real-it may be optimistic to think we will totally get rid of CoViD in 2022...It would be more then welcome if we can get better vaccines, treatments...but so far the progress there was undone by "reopenings to save the economy insanity"....

This pandemic is a political problem. Without major political changes we can NOT survive !!!

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926456-vaccines-basel-reinfections-in-covid-19-patients-impact-of-virus-genetic-variability-and-host-immunity[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/immunity-aa/926456-vaccines-basel-reinfections-in-covid-19-patients-impact-of-virus-genetic-variability-and-host-immunity ;

DJ Outdated article in my opinion....It would be welcome if natural immunity limited reinfections...but it does not ! Also some "reinfections" turned out to be the virus never left the body-became reactivated after some negative test in the upper airways...

Twitters [url]https://twitter.com/Ammer_B[/url] or https://twitter.com/Ammer_BSome scientists have played a questionable role during this pandemic. What worries me most is the clinging to seniority rather then sometimes having a content based discussion. Which if I can humbly remind ourselves is the fundament of science.

DJ Disagreeing with your boss has consequences-also in science jobs. (Certainly when you turn out to be right often and your boss is missing the point...)

[url]https://twitter.com/drericding[/url] or https://twitter.com/drericding ; So is this 110 million doses at most? Africa needs *at the very least* 1.6. billion doses of vaccines. Drops in a very large bucket. This is why countries have been pushing for access to vaccine recipes to produce their own, rather than rely on Big Pharma + western donation.

DJ What excuse the "rich countries"have to keep poor countries poor and starving ? "We" have better weapons ? (therefore more civilized ?). Like the west did help IS against Russia and China the west puts corrupt leaders in power in poor countries and then claim corruption is the reason for poverty...while western mines exploit natural resources..now facing China trying to do the same under Chinese terms...

[url]https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator[/url] or https://twitter.com/x2IndSpeculator..advanced age is associated with age-related degradation of the immune system (immunosenescence) & dysregulated inflammatory responses (inflammaging)... aged individuals are likely to be considerably less able than adult macaques to compensate for immune deficiencies...

DJ A younger population has better "natural" protection & defenses. 




Als antwoord op  en 
And the sad part is we have remnants of old solid & knowledgeable public-health institutions (created at the beginning of the 20th century & excelled post-WWII) that could have (once, a long time ago) implemented pandemic play-book procedures.

And The other deeply depressing part is the mindset of Western scientists Who cling to vaccination as the only solution because they cannot conceive of anything but a technological solution But mass testing is also a technological solution, yet it was never seriously considered...

DJ A conflict between vaccinated and unvaccinated does NOT help ! If you want-as a government-ALL people get vaccinated make a law to do so ! Otherwise come up with better plans to get the maximum protection ! Stop playing crazy games with millions of lives !

-Dr. John Campbell on"low vitamin D and increased mortality" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwNgKJ-7YWQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HwNgKJ-7YWQ ;

Vitamin D, lower levels, common in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) Study of patients with existing CVD 

N = 37,079 patients with CVD from the UK Biobank study 

Among 37,079 patients with CVD at baseline, 57.5% were vitamin D deficient Deficient, 25[OH]D less than 50 nmol/L (less than 20ng/ml)  

Median follow-up of 11.7 years Deaths that occurred =  6,319 total  

2,161 deaths from CVD 2,230 deaths from cancer 623 deaths from respiratory disease 1,305 other-cause deaths 

That is deaths went up as vitamin D levels went down (P-non-linearity less than 0.01) 

Among CVD patients with vitamin D deficiency For every 10 nmol/L increment in serum 25(OH)D concentrations, There was an associated 12% reduced risk for all-cause mortality There was an associated 9% reduced risk for CVD mortality. 

In patients with vitamin D deficiency Per 10 nmol/L increase in serum 25(OH)D levels, was associated with a lower risk of mortality from (aHR]; 95% CI) 

DJ You can get supplements to increase your health, decrease healthrisks...Of course good food, NOT driving a car (or going on a plane) does help not only you but all of us ! 

-Music ; I started with relations, may well end with it; Love Story - Andy Williams - 1970 [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrZ2ibWOgkM[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrZ2ibWOgkM 

"SHE FILLS MY HEART WITH VERY SPECIAL THINGS

 WITH ANGELS SONGS, WITH WILD IMAGININGS 

SHE FILLS MY SOUL WITH SO MUCH LOVE 

THAT ANYWHERE I GO, I'M NEVER LONELY 

WITH HER AROUND, WHO COULD BE LONELY 

I REACH FOR HER HAND IT'S ALWAYS THERE"


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 1 hour 5 minutes ago at 9:59pm

DJ, 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ show "we are not all in the same boat"....Global cases +3%, deaths +0,7%. But those numbers are influenced by a still strong increase of cases/deaths in Europe +20%/+14%, South America cases +9% and India deaths +105% are also major factors pushing numbers up...

One explanation could be "to little restrictions" and in part UK, NL, Belgium that may be part of the story. To little vaccinations is the case in Eastern Europe, Russia, Poland, Romania often also with hardly serious restrictions...A third factor is the AY.4.2 Delta sub-variant more infectious (=higher R0) and more deathly...A fourth factor may be waning immunity-lots of most vulnarables did get vaccinated early this year...Proberbly a not yet very clear fifth factor may be QR-codes to be used as "vaccine passports" to a certain % being false...It will be a small group but it allows the virus to spread.

US cases have been going down now for some time-even with limited restrictions/vaccinations. From "modern western countries" the US is now around the worst vaccinated country...also restrictions are-at best-limited. So why do cases in the US go down -14%, deaths -19% ? Is Europe earlier in the UK AY.4.2 variant ? Does the US in general-still have better restrictions then some parts of Europe ? 

What I read is in some parts of the US there is mask use in schools, shops...far from perfect but proberbly still better then in NL, Belgium where masks are supposed to be used in public transport...hospitals made their own mask rules...

South America is moving into summer ! Chile was one of the better vaccinated countries, in Brazil vaccinations are supposed to be increasing...South America cases +9%, deaths -7%....(indicating a new wave...AY.4.2 ???) Chile cases +29%, deaths +39% (deaths higher then cases could indicate there is still an old wave...

Then Asia...India cases -1% (and deaths +105% with a lot of under reporting...). Is AY.4.2 starting another wave in India after it just was in the last phase of "other Delta subvariants" (Delta started in India peak april this year proberbly allready killing millions...).

China is seeing cases +98% (last week 136, this week 269) but is managing-with massive testing, isolating, contact tracing, to keep numbers down...If I compare China's numbers with that of New Zealand (5 million people) cases +49%, last week 449, this week 669 I wonder "are we realy fighting this pandemic"? 

Here in NL (cases +51%, deaths +60%)-and in many other European countries, with both flu and winter on its way healthcare is "preparing for worst case scenario's". Allready discussion on keeping room-also on ICU-for non-CoViD care so other delayed care (hearth, cancer, transplants) can go on-to keep the damage there at least within limits...

The excess deaths numbers are going up in many places because a lot of people that would have had care if there was no pandemic end up having to wait to long. This pandemic is starting to result in increased non-CoViD deaths because ill people visit a doctor to late...get not the needed care...

DJ-My impression is;

1-AY.4.2 may be starting yet another wave-allready in Europe, India/parts of Asia, South America...proberbly allready in Oceania (Papua New Guinea has had high numbers may now be allready facing AY.4.2). Other parts of the globe will follow...

2-Season effect is very limited at best. South America may see cases explode again ! 

3-Natural immunity may protect against reinfection by the same variant. Brazil, Iran studies indicate it is NOT effective enough against new variants...so people may get CoViD over and over again allready (just like with cold-corona virus but far more destructive). Natural protection 6-8 months in the best scenario ? 

4-Vaccine protection needs boosters...maybe even more often then with the flu-vaccine. Older/vulnarable people may not build that good immunity protection. In some people with immunity problems (booster)vaccines may only offer "very limited extra protection"...(Maybe better then nothing-but there you have to balance the risks...living in a buble, restricting to save contacts, offers better protection.)

5-In the start politics went for "slow natural build up of herd immunity"-keep healthcare going-the risks of infection was underestimated. Since "natural immunity build-up" resulted in a healthcare crisis vaccines where welcome-with that vaccine passports, QR-codes...The main goal of politics was "keep the economy going"...but that strategy made the pandemic getting worse...

A major problem is now an "elite-bubble" of "experts&politics (some politicians see themselves as experts not even knowing the basics of biology, pandemics...)" has to accept they did get it wrong...Given the pride, arrogance, power that "elite"has a review of strategy may see "bodies piling up" (Allthough UK cases +0%, deaths +8% at 982 this week....getting close to 1,000 deaths per week in the UK). 

Here in NL a vaccine passport for hitler did not change politics idea of the (lack of) usefullness of vaccine QR-codes...Social distancing is better ! 

-Flutrackers etc.

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926490-china-covid-19-prevention-and-control-procedures-have-closed-restricted-many-venues-throughout-the-country-october-28-2021[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/926490-china-covid-19-prevention-and-control-procedures-have-closed-restricted-many-venues-throughout-the-country-october-28-2021 ;

DJ

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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