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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

scenario's

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2022 at 9:56pm

DJ,

This forum is giving me room for this scenario's now for allmost two years. It may be very hard to fit this kind of writing into any other forum. I want to take time-and space-to look at this pandemic from different corners, statistics, science, background-it is not a simple question...history allways is complex. 

This forum has seen more activity-and I hope it may see more activity again soon. Different kind of views and opinions make a forum into the marketplace it is supposed to be. No one has all the answers....This pandemic is new for experts. We are all learning. 

-Background; [url]https://thesaker.is/this-is-how-the-u-s-does-dialogue/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/this-is-how-the-u-s-does-dialogue/Washington will not consider Russian proposals on no expansion of NATO, and has no intention of even discussing the idea. So much for “dialogue”.

and [url]https://thesaker.is/https-smoothiex12-blogspot-com-2022-01-3m22-zircon-is-officially-accepted-for-html/[/url] or https://thesaker.is/https-smoothiex12-blogspot-com-2022-01-3m22-zircon-is-officially-accepted-for-html/It is quite obvious: Russia will begin a policy of unilateral actions aimed at advancing vital Russian national interests.  Many of those actions will turn up the pain dial for the US/EU/NATO.  Rather than trying to guess what will happen next, I rather wait for those unilateral actions to become public.

so [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/uh-oh-u-s-gov-t-now-talking-false-flag-by-russia-to-justify-invasion-likely-means-u-s-going-to-attack-and-call-it-false-flag-by-russia[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/uh-oh-u-s-gov-t-now-talking-false-flag-by-russia-to-justify-invasion-likely-means-u-s-going-to-attack-and-call-it-false-flag-by-russia  and [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/defcon-4-europe-crisis-january-2022.15474/page-10[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/threads/defcon-4-europe-crisis-january-2022.15474/page-10 ...

Party-lover Boris in the UK, Biden in the US a few other "leaders" want to start a world war about NATO "having a right" to move east...in the middle of a pandemic getting out of control...what a coincidence ! 

I am not an expert, not neutral or "objective" but why SARS-1 in 2003 did NOT become a pandemic and why SARS-2 in 2019/20 did become such a bad pandemic ?  I do not know enough of the SARS-1 virus...but I do know there was a lot of action taken-by many countries and in time to stop the spread in 2003. Such actions came "to little to late" over and over again making this pandemic in potential even worse then the Spanish Flu....

This pandemic is-in a major part-the outcome of failing politics....starting a major war only underlines how bad the job is done by "our leaders". 

Ignoring history, the reasons for PUBLIC healtcare, PUBLIC housing, transport and even security of a police-going for privatize everything "liberalism" is the underlying factor pushing human kind towards the edge...

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table giving some indications only;

Reported global cases for january 13; 3,220,785 +40%, deaths 7,671 trend +11%...I am not going to make another list...in lots of regions cases going up, in many of them cases AND deaths going up, some countries allready cases going down but deaths going up indicating they get out of a peak-most now for the BA.1 subvariant of Omicron...some deaths still due to the Delta sub-variants also around in many places. 

Omicron BA.2 on the increase...has around 60 mutations different from the BA.1 form-for that matter allmost another variant. Very likely people that did get the BA.1 variant may see limited immunity against BA.2....Also the present vaccines/boosters do not offer enough protection to slow down the spread enough...

Non Pharma Interventions (NPI) are becoming "difficult" when a lot of "media" come with "it is only mild" stories...so where are we ? 

In communication you have the one that sends a message and the one that is supposed to recieve that message; When you take 30 people that have to "send" a message from person to person the story from start to finish "mutates"...if it is a complex story in a foreign language you may not recognize much from the story that started this circle...

Media, experts, politics  (MEP) for allmost two years were sending a complex story the had difficulty to understand to "us" the public...To get a "grip" on that "story" (of this pandemic) "MEP" had to go for simplifications, a national view, balancing it with economy....

MEP itself allready was unable to get "a good story"....a pandemic is never " only national" , it allways will be complex and full of surprises. We did not have experts able to deal with this "big story" even with very good virologists, epidemiologists, communication experts....

The pandemic story is a very complex one in a "foreign language" nobody realy knew...

Then the "us" part, the public. Let me be honest; a lot of people in countries keeping themselves rich are spoiled ! For most people on this planet todays work is this evenings food...most people never will catch an airplane and have the "freedom" to fly around the planet....Even clean water, a safe toilet may not be there for most of us....

This pandemic is the outcome of a proces-that also did cause the climate disaster that is unfolding right here right now....and most of "us" the global population did NOT cause these problems...

I did read somewhere "80% of the flying done by 20% of the passengers"....Why is it "normal" to deny basic human rights (healthcare, clean water, education, housing) to so many ? Why should "we" accept yet another war to "defend" such inequality...where money=freedom to even destroy this planet....poverty means you will suffer for the "actions" of a rich elite ?

This pandemic is the outcome of global inequality. We are doing this to ourselves...WE have to change !

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 13 2022 at 10:38pm

part 2,

DJ-Testing and sequencing are needed to follow this pandemic-getting a view of what to expect. Limited testing capacity, at home testing and "it is only mild" -resulting in no testing at all results in an even worse virological view on this pandemic. We hardly knew what was happening in countries we keep poor...Africa, most of Asia, Latin America not only getting "limited vaccinations" but also limited testing and sequencing...

Still China, India, EU, US managed to get "hundreds of millions" vaccinated wich saved hundreds of thousends of lives (but at a certain-not yet clear-costs; vaccines ARE medical interventions...some people suffer complications, some die from vaccines. We should not close our eyes for that).

Testing capacity worldwide did get overstretched several times during this pandemic....for costs, financial reasons, test capacity was decreased in lots of places when "peaks were over", had to increase again when the next peak came...no long term plan. I would liked it if-when there was less demand for tests-more people could go for a test to see if they are a/mild-symptomatic...better use of test-capacity. 

Positive tests may end up for sequencing. Denmark did-I believe-test 50% of (positive) samples, UK also quite a high level-was it 5% ? Most countries hardly test 1% of positive samples. Why ?????

Twitter has become the place for (some) experts to exchange findings and ideas...not that "studies" stopped but "studies are slow" while variants moved much faster....

The BA.2 variant of Omicron is increasing ([url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false showing detected numbers of BA.2 over last 60 days only showing a lot of them in Denmark...but NL, Germany, showing an increase...France, India may have even higher numbers...Germany must have several hundred of BA.2 cases, also increase in Amsterdam-rest of NL to follow...even a BA.3 variant).

work in progres....I can not get access to twitter.....mmmmmmmm, change of plan...(is putting links to twitter(s) on this forum a problem for twitter ????).

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/931516-brazil-2021-seasonal-flu?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/south-america/seasonal-flu-2009-2013-1-2-including-h1n1-pandemic-2009-aa/brazil/931516-brazil-2021-seasonal-flu?view=stream latest; Source: https://correiodoestado.com.br/cidad...-do-sul/395401

H3N2 flu infects 11 people, kills 50-year-old man in last 24 hours
Influenza fatality rate is 8.3%, points out epidemiological bulletin
01/13/2022 12:14 - Naiara Camargo

Data from the epidemiological bulletin released by the State Department of Health (SES) indicate that 11 people were notified with the influenza A (H3N2) virus in Mato Grosso do Sul.

-

Paraná declares a state of H3N2 epidemic and reinforces the importance of vaccination
Created on Thursday, 13 January 2022 07:27

saude VI 13 01 2022The Secretary of State for Health, Beto Preto, announced, on the morning of this Wednesday (12/01), that Paraná is in a state of Influenza flu epidemic. The increase in the number of daily cases of H3N2 (a type of Influenza A virus) and deaths from the disease led to this decision.

DJ A flu-epidemic-H3N2- in parts of Brazil coinciding with Omicron cases exploding (cases +256%, deaths +25% for Brazil)  is "bad news". It is summer in the south part of the globe. Flu-vaccines were given april 2021 in that part of the globe. (There are also reports of a.o. Yellow Fever, [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbovirus[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbovirus climate related...)

Here in the north part of this planet flu-season is supposed to have started. So far however number of flu-cases seem to be limited. Brazil may see more then a "flu-corona=flurona" outbreak...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/928700-omicron-covid-19-variant-b-1-1529-a-variant-of-concern?view=stream latest; There is some, very tentative, evidence that it may be less clinically severe but it is doubtful that this will be enough to stop a flood of hospitalisation and probably deaths. Even if the hoped for drop in virulence significantly reduces the severity, on a case by case basis, the far higher case loads will negate that advantage. Looking at the graph there has not been enough time between the start of the current exponential case growth (the last 3 weeks) to see how that plays out in terms of the deaths due to the lag time of about two weeks for hospitalisations and a month for fatalities.

Omicron definitely has a significant fitness advantage over the other variants but it is very hard to compare with Alpha and Delta, which also rapidly established themselves, as the population's immune profiles have changed so much.

DJ Omicron became a major point just over a month ago. The basis for "it is mild" claims were made based on how it did work out in South Africa...with a lot of delay in numbers of hospital cases and deaths. Also the Oslo-Norway outbreak may have been a factor-only those cases were in younger, healthy, vaccinated people....The "mild" claim also ignoring Delta has over 200 sub-variants, Omicron-with its extreme high spread-no doubt will also develop into lots of sub-variants-like the BA.2 now increasing. 

The next bit of useful data comes from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....27.21268278v1 which basically shows that at least part of Omicron's fitness advantage comes from immune evasion but a booster vaccine dose helps reduce this. It, along with other data, shows Omicron has a shorter incubation period.

There is also good evidence that Omicron cause less sever symptoms in mice and hamster models with less replication in the lung but high replication in the nose. As usually with animal models it is difficult to say if this has any relevance in humans.

My guess would be that it is a bit milder but very fit. This good if it reduces morbidity but probably also bad if it leaves more mild and asymptomatic cases shedding and accounting for its explosive growth. I would be very cautious for a while in your contacts with others - distance, wear a mask and if you can get vaccinated and boosted. I think our health care services are going to have a hard time coping over the next few months and need all of us to reduce our risk as much as we can.

Good advice ! Booster-protection most likely not as effective as first two vaccinations-specially in the more vulnerables. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/935133-china-chp-closely-monitors-five-human-cases-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-mainland-75-54-yr-old-males-in-sichuan-51-yr-old-female-in-zhejiang-53-28-yr-old-males-in-guangxi[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/935133-china-chp-closely-monitors-five-human-cases-of-avian-influenza-a-h5n6-in-mainland-75-54-yr-old-males-in-sichuan-51-yr-old-female-in-zhejiang-53-28-yr-old-males-in-guangxi

China - CHP closely monitors five human cases of avian influenza A(H5N6) in Mainland - 75 & 54 yr. old males in Sichuan; 51 yr. old female in Zhejiang; 53 & 28 yr. old males in Guangxi


Source: https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/...2011300628.htm


CHP closely monitors five human cases of avian influenza A(H5N6) in Mainland
************************************************** *************


The Centre for Health Protection (CHP) of the Department of Health is today (January 13) closely monitoring five human cases of avian influenza A(H5N6) in the Mainland, and again urged the public to maintain strict personal, food and environmental hygiene both locally and during travel.

Details of the cases are listed in the table below:
AgeSexLiving placeOnset dateAdmission dateConditionHistory of exposure to live poultry
75MaleLuzhou,
Sichuan
December 1, 2021December 4, 2021Passed away on December 12, 2021Had exposure to live domestic poultry
54MaleLeshan,
Sichuan
December 8, 2021December 16, 2021Passed away on December 24, 2021Had exposure to live domestic poultry
51FemaleHangzhou, ZhejiangDecember 15, 2021December 18, 2021CriticalHad exposure to live domestic poultry
53MaleLiuzhou, GuangxiDecember 19, 2021December 23, 2021SeriousHad exposure to dead poultry
28MaleLiuzhou, GuangxiDecember 23, 2021December 23, 2021CriticalPending confirmation
From 2014 to date, 63 human cases of avian influenza A(H5N6) have been reported by Mainland health authorities...

...Ends/Thursday, January 13, 2022
Issued at HKT 19:03

DJ-Another part of a growing flu-crisis. Lots of H5(most N1) in birds around the planet...This mixing with the present CoViD-pandemic (and a.o. African Swine Fever also still a major problem) may indicate a global major health crisis much wider then "just CoViD"....[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-h5n1-h5n8-h5n6-h5n3-h5n2-h10n8-outbreak-tracking/723926-flutrackers-h5n6-cumulative-case-list most-detected-cases in China...(but it most likely will be more widespread). 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/935088-world-j-mens-health-sars-cov-2-in-the-prostate-immunohistochemical-and-ultrastructural-studies[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/welcome-to-the-scientific-library/pathological-findings/935088-world-j-mens-health-sars-cov-2-in-the-prostate-immunohistochemical-and-ultrastructural-studies ; While viruses from the coronavirus family have been established as causes of respiratory tract infections, SARS-CoV-2 has also been found in the heart, kidney, testes, and penis. This paper investigates whether SARS-CoV-2 can linger in the prostate by examining the histopathological, ultrastructural, and immunofluorescent elements of prostatic tissue from a patient who was infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus prior to having a holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP) procedure. 

The findings of this case report suggest that COVID-19 has both the ability to enter prostatic tissue during an acute infection and persist over a timeframe beyond the initial infection period as RNA-containing viral bodies. This case report lays the foundation for future investigations to examine any histopathological changes to the prostatic tissue that may be associated with SARS-CoV-2 viral infection.

DJ Men have more ACE-2 receptors-so the virus may be able to spread more over the male-body. If some organs may have virus persisting it is a further indication for CoViD being a LONG-term issue...not only a "short term" acute healthproblem. 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/sharp-increase-suicide-among-young-adults-last-year[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/sharp-increase-suicide-among-young-adults-last-year

Those in the Netherlands in life threatening danger should immediately dial 112 for emergency services. Anyone suffering from depression or contemplating suicide may call 113 Zelfmoordpreventie at any time by dialing either 113 or 0800-0113. Counselors at De Luisterlijn may also be reached at 088-0767000, or volunteers may be reached at one of their local numbers. A list of suicide crisis hotlines outside the Netherlands is available on Wikipedia.

The number of young people up to age 30 who took their own lives was 15 percent higher last year than 2020. The increase was most visible among young people between the ages of 20 and 30, NOS reported based on figures from the Current Dutch Suicide Registration Committee (CANS).

The total number of suicides has been stable at around 1,800 for years. "But it increased among young people last year," Renske Gilissen, lead researcher at 113 Suicide Prevention and chairman of CANS, said to the broadcaster. Last year there were over 300 suicides in the 30 or younger age group. "An increase of 15 percent. Especially between the ages of 20 and 30, and often men."

DJ Forums like this one could offer people room to share thoughts, ideas, questions....Climate change, war, pandemics are not "nice" but hiding does not help....honest talk, being open-having a safe place to go to are important ! 

End of part 2...trying to get access to twitter again...hope sharing info from twitter on this forum was not the problem...

Stay safe & sane !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 1:48am

part 3 -BA2 subvariant spreading...trying to get more info;

[url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/several-cases-of-omicron-sub-variant-ba2-detected-in-israel/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/several-cases-of-omicron-sub-variant-ba2-detected-in-israel/ 

The Health Ministry on Thursday announced several cases of a sub-variant of the Omicron strain of the coronavirus have been found in Israel.

According to the Kan public broadcaster, at least 20 such cases have been identified in the country.

BA2 has already been identified in several countries and carries additional mutations beyond those possessed by Omicron.


It is not currently known whether BA2 is more dangerous than Omicron.

“At this point, there is no evidence that indicates it behaves differently from Omicron. The Health Ministry will update the public on any relevant developments,” the ministry said in a statement.

Meanwhile, the Omicron virus variant has raced across Israel over the past week, leaving the country with 259,223 active patients, 228,044 of whom were diagnosed over the past seven days — a rate three times higher than the previous week. The rampage has left 188,899 Israelis in quarantine due to exposure to an infected person, ministry figures showed Thursday.

The number of patients seriously ill with COVID-19 has risen by 90 to 289, according to Health Ministry daily figures.

Of the 882 patients hospitalized in Israel with COVID-19, 89 are considered critical and 72 are on ventilators.

DJ When I look at worldometers Israel cases +207% on a weekly basis, deaths +80%....Comparing that to US cases +29%, deaths +24%, UK cases -24%, deaths +67% the high increase in Israeli cases jump out...

[url]https://www.kan.org.il/item/?itemId=120402[/url] or https://www.kan.org.il/item/?itemId=120402 ; The BA2 is currently known to have even more mutations than 

 the original Leumicron so some scientists around the world have speculated that it may be more violent. As stated, . the moment this is only a hypothesis, and it is important to note that there is no certainty about this.

The subspecies was first seen in China a few weeks ago. The suspicion is that it originated in India. There it is called the "stealth strain", because PCR testing does not detect it in many cases, and is currently responsible for 80% of omicron morbidity in the city of Kolkata. The information was ascertained through special genetic flooring tests. It has also been located in Denmark, Australia, Canada, Singapore - and since last week also in Israel. Similar to the hypothesis of scientists around the world, scientists in the country have told news here that they are troubled by it because of its changes, and because of its greater mutations.

Following the publication here in the news, the information headquarters for the fight against the corona virus announced that the BA2 strain is developing alongside the omicron and is being monitored by the Ministry of Health and other countries in the world. "At this stage there is no evidence that he is behaving differently from the Omicron. The Ministry of Health will update the public on any relevant developments," the Ministry of Health said in a statement.


DJ (google translate -but from right to left sentences still) 

So what do we know of BA.2 ? [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Sublineages_and_stealth_variant still in need of an update; BA.2 has been nicknamed 'Stealth Omicron' because it differs from the 'standard' variety by not having the characteristic S gene target failure (SGTF)-causing deletion (Δ69-70) by which many PCR tests are able to detect a case as an Omicron, or Alpha, variant. Thus, countries that primarily rely on SGTF for detection may overlook BA.2.[40] Some countries, including Denmark, use a variant qPCR that tests for several mutations, including Δ69-70, E484K, L452R and N501Y.[41] It can also distinguish Delta (the heavily dominant variant worldwide, prior to the spread of Omicron), which has L452R but not N501Y,[42] and all Omicron sublineages, which have N501Y but not L452R.[43][44] As of 19 December 2021, BA.2 appears to be very rare with about twenty known cases from half a dozen countries.[39][44] The third sublineage, BA.3, is also very rare and it does not represent the same potential problem in detection since it has the SGTF deletion (Δ69-70), similar to BA.1.

It may be the dominant form of Omicron in Denmark yet [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false also not very much up to date...

Denmark cases now +0,5%, deaths however +56%...India-also with high level of BA.2 increase has cases +250%, deaths still only +4%....

What is the difference between BA.1 and BA.2 ? [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/361[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/361 showing 84 differences....

[url]https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/ba2-stealth-variant-kolkata-omicron-infections-559068.html[/url] or https://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/ba2-stealth-variant-kolkata-omicron-infections-559068.html

Nearly 80% of COVID samples sent for genome-sequencing by labs in Kolkata have the BA.2 sub-lineage of the Omicron variant, nicknamed the 'stealth version', as per TNN.  It is called so as it cannot be picked up in RT-PCR tests and only genome-sequencing can detect it. 

What is interesting is that nearly none of those found infected with BA.2 had any immediate history of foreign travel, said a senior health official. 150 or so positive samples have already been sequenced. 

DJ So did BA.2 start in India ????

[url]https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=B.1.1.529[/url] or https://cov-lineages.org/lineage.html?lineage=B.1.1.529 ;BA.2 Denmark 87% of cases, India 4%, Sweden 3%, UK, Singapore 1% (BA.3 =53% of South Africa cases, 27% UK cases, 7% Poland cases, 3% NL, Ireland.)...Sweden cases +31%, deaths -51%...

linking subvariants of Omicron with statistics should also include timing. Did Denmark see cases "explode" earlier ? [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ Denmark (DK) cases went up explosive end of december-now at a very high level. Last 7 days DK had 127,372 cases, the week before 126,800 on a population of 5,8 million. Last 7 days 21,872 cases per million. (UK had 13,981 cases per million, US 16,743...France however 31,408 cases per million...so what is spreading in France ???) 

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DNK&pango=BA.2&selected=BA.2[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=DNK&pango=BA.2&selected=BA.2 showing an explosion of BA.2 in DK last few weeks. 

[url]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron-variant.html[/url] or https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/scientific-brief-omicron-variant.html and many other healthcare instututions do not make (yet) a BA.2 page..."it is all Omicron"....well it most likely is not. 








A total of 84/89(94%) randomly selected SARS-CoV-2 positive samples, collected 12th Jan 2022 at  testing facilities, were positive for a BA.1-like variant and 2/89(2%) for a BA.2-like variant based on the spike 371L/373P assay. Thanks to  & .

DJ Spread of BA.2 (also) travel related. NL cases now at +65%, deaths at -42%...so-with testing capacity increasing in NL to 200,000 test per day (and sometimes over 30% of tests positive) may we expect 60,000 "cases/positive tests" per day for NL soon...

work in progres

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 10:10am

I thought of you when I read this, so Josh, this one's for you:


https://jessicalexicus.medium.com/the-virus-isnt-the-problem-it-s-us-and-it-s-our-leadership-610a4c71c5e9


The Virus Isn’t The Problem — It’s Us, and It’s Our Leadership


We’ve lost the plot.



Jessica Wildfire


Dec 30, 2021·7 min read



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They were going to fire me.


It was my second job. I was 17. One week I came down with a cold. Obviously, I still went to school. I still went to track practice, because my coach said running would be good for me.


“It’ll clear out your sinuses.”


I believed him, and wound up running sprints for an hour. That weekend my symptoms got worse. By Sunday morning, all I wanted to do was sleep. I called the grocery store and asked if someone could cover my shift. The manager said no. So off I went.


You can imagine the looks I got from customers.


Later that night, my dad asked me how I was feeling. He told me about the first time he worked through a cold. A customer took pity on him, and bought him some medicine. He treated the experience like a rite of passage, something every American learns:


Work ’til you drop.


We’re letting people die.


As a country, America has decided travel and shopping are more important than our health. We’ve just barely started to feel the consequences of this decision, even if it represents our true values.


Here’s what ordinary people are sharing on Twitter:


My daughter and I sat in the ER last week with her bleeding internally. We were there for ten hours before she was rushed to emergency surgery. The ER was packed with sick people. It was terrifying. A man came in clearly having a heart attack and was asked to sit in the waiting area… My stepmother who thought covid was a hoax died from it three weeks ago.


Here’s what a doctor said:


Life in the U.S. in Jan-Feb 2022 is going to be almost unrecognizable to most Americans… When we call 911 & no one comes… When we go to grocery stores & find the shelves empty, to pharmacies & find them closed because every single employee is out sick themselves or tending to a loved one… the idea that schools will manage to stay open in any meaningful way in Jan is a joke. Staffing issues alone will close them.


Our leaders chose the economy over us.


They forgot one thing: the economy isn’t just a bunch of numbers. It’s people. We’re the ones who make up the economy. If we’re too sick to work, if we’re bleeding to death in emergency waiting rooms, it’s going to have a negative impact on Wall Street, eventually.


We keep saying it, because it needs to be heard. This is going to be America’s most painful lesson yet. Our leaders had plenty of opportunities and warnings to prepare for Omicron. They didn’t.


It needs to sink in.


We’re being conditioned to accept disaster.


The other week, I wrote about how a storm system passed over my house and then laid down a super tornado that destroyed a town.


Someone wrote this:


It must be difficult when you think everything is a disaster.


This attitude persists in America. It doesn’t matter if you’re talking about a literal disaster as it unfolds. Someone will always accuse you of “catastrophizing,” because it serves their ends.


If nothing else, they get off on it.


The people who complain about our “doomscrolling” and our “addiction to catastrophe” have their own agenda. They either have something to sell, or they want our cheap labor.


They want us to make sure the schools and stores stay open, so they can continue profiting off us. This much should be clear now. We’ve literally seen supervisors tell employees to disregard tornado sirens, to keep delivering packages and making candles.


We’re expendable.


The media is selling a fiction.


On December 15, TIME Magazine published this: “Let’s Not Be Fatalistic About Omicron. We Know How to Fight It.” On December 28, The New York Times published this: “Omicron Is Not More Severe for Children Despite Rising Hospitalizations.”


Scroll the headlines of major news media, and you’ll see similar stories, all factually accurate in a technical sense, but with heavy spin. They bury the real story. For example, they casually dismiss the low vaccination numbers among children, and barely mention that kids under five still can’t get vaccinated. They say things like “we know how to fight Covid.”


Here’s the real story:


We do know how to fight Omicron, but we’re not. We’re letting it win. Everywhere you look, people are going about their lives without masks, without testing when they show symptoms, without taking any precautions for their friends and family.


The vast majority of Americans are still operating under dangerous, outdated information about how Omicron spreads. The media keeps selling the story that we should accept the oncoming tidal wave of infections as normal, and prepare to catch Covid ourselves. As a country, we’ve largely abandoned the idea of trying to protect anyone.


Here’s the sad part:


This is how America usually runs. It’s what “back to normal” feels like, working when we’re sick, not caring about our health or who we infect, and waiting until we’re about to drop dead until finally dragging ourselves to a doctor, and expecting them to work magic.


This won’t end well.


The CDC knows exactly what they’re doing.


The CDC is making it easier for bosses to compel their employees back to work with guidelines that now allow someone to return “if their symptoms are resolving (without fever)” which is vague and confusing. It feels like that’s part of the point—to create ambiguity.


They’re cherry-picking science now, in order to justify a “return to normal,” at a time when nothing is normal except our country’s broad desire for profits and cheap consumer goods.


This isn’t just my opinion.


A range of epidemiologists have blasted the CDC this week for its decision. Even the former Surgeon General, Jerome Adams, says he’s lost respect for the institution. It doesn’t just look like they’re bowing to corporate interests. They are, and barely hiding it.


Here’s what he said:


I love the CDC… I never dreamed the day would come when I would advise people not to follow their guidance… Ask any of them. They wouldn’t even follow it for their own family.


So there you have it.


The CDC is giving advice experts wouldn’t follow.


The most brutal truth is that the CDC probably didn’t have a choice but to bend their own rules. America’s logistics and supply chains probably will crumple if we don’t compel at least some workers to return while they’re still sick. That’s what the past year of inaction has led us to, an impossible situation. Now we get to choose between watching everything from hospitals to grocery stores implode, or forcing people to risk their health so we can buy food and fill our prescriptions.


It’s a lose-lose.


Of course, the key problem isn’t health guidelines. It’s how businesses are going to interpret them. Already, we’re seeing scores of people commanded back to work, even when they’re so sick they can barely think straight. These managers and supervisors don’t care about Covid, or their employees. Some of them never did, only profits.


A few of us understand what’s already hitting.


Here’s where things get difficult:


Omicron is going to shut the economy down, whether we like it or not. The CDC and the White House are trying desperately to stave off the inevitable, a dark winter full of sickness and scarcity. They chose the wrong play, the one that prioritized false hope and positive thinking over strategic planning. They had plenty of chances, all missed.


We should be mass producing N95 masks right now and telling people to stay home if they’re a little sick. We should be deploying the national guard in advance of overflowing hospitals, not in response. We should not be counting on the waning immunity from outdated vaccines to carry us through this brutal stretch. This dream is already failing, and the people in charge aren’t going to notice until it’s too late.


At this point, we’re not just talking about Covid deaths.


We’re talking about deaths from untreated emergencies, canceled surgeries, and unfilled prescriptions. We’re talking about disruptions to the basic services we rely on to function as a society.


All of it’s at stake.


Don’t give into the panic.


Panic will strike again as Americans wake up from their hopium holiday next week and realize we vastly underestimated Omicron.


They’re not prepared for what’s coming.


Here’s where we have to stay strong and not give into the panic. The people who truly freak out will be the ones who laughed at us when we pleaded with everyone to mask and distance over the holidays. They’ll be the ones hoarding toilet paper and rushing to emergency rooms, spitting on nurses, and pleading for vaccines before going on a ventilator.


That’s true panic.


What we should be doing is planning to spend yet another 3–5 weeks mainly at home, doing our best to live life and take care of the people we care about. We need to resist our bosses when they call us into work sick, and demand our leaders finally start paying attention to reality.


America had a chance to prepare.


They didn’t.






A Majority of Americans Have Lost Their F — ing Minds


Savage behavior deserves savage commentary.



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I’m scared — and angry. I’m tired of the bullshit.


Aren’t you?


We have to let the plumbers into our house, this week of all weeks, to fix a problem that can’t wait. We’re at their mercy. We can hope they’re boosted, and we can ask them to wear a mask. We can strap on our N95s, including our toddler who has learned to wear one. We can open our windows and run fans and filters, but it might not be enough.


Sometimes, it’s not.


Earlier this year, I honestly thought the pandemic was drawing to a close. Then the CDC made a series of stupid mistakes. We botched the vaccine and booster rollout, and now it feels like we’re declaring a hollow victory to avoid the humiliation of surrender. America has done this before, in Vietnam and then again in Iraq and Afghanistan.


We declared a war on drugs and poverty, and we lost those, too. Drugs and poverty are kicking our ass. We pretend to be resilient winners, but we’re not. We’re a country of whiners.


This would be a very different pandemic if I weren’t parenting a child who can’t get vaccinated. Life completely changes once you become responsible for someone else’s life, not just your own.


You see the world differently.


Things stand out.


The cult of personal responsibility has failed.


Responsibility for other people’s lives is something Americans have truly failed at over the last two years.


We just don’t get it.


Experts have warned and warned us about the consequences of doing nothing to address a crisis on a collective level. Now the U.S. is reporting the worst Covid numbers on record.


Today we hit 484,000 cases.


Despite the absurd story about Omicron’s mildness, we’re also reaching record numbers of hospital and ICU patients. Maryland has already announced crisis standards of care. In Arizona, doctors are pitching medical tents again to deal with the overflows of patients:


Twitter


These numbers should scare us all, because it blows right through the worst predictions by epidemiologists. Just a few days ago, even the most blunt experts scoffed at the idea of 500,000 infections per day. They forgot, we live in America, the land of freedom.


The CDC is predicting 15,000 deaths a week to Covid by early January, and you can bet they’re being conservative. There’s a good chance we’ll blow right through those estimates, too. Almost everywhere, I hear cruel laughter from the vaccinated. They’re so invested in seeing the unvaccinated suffer, they’ve completely forgotten everyone else, including the vaccinated who are going to die or wind up with severe chronic illness for years to come. They truly don’t give a damn about all the innocent lives who are going to get caught in this crossfire, especially children.


It’s disturbing.


Americans don’t really believe in responsibility.


Time and again, Americans have spouted this pointless maxim about “personal responsibility” and “personal risk,” completely failing to grasp that our collective asses are on the line.


It doesn’t matter how many precautions we take when vaccinated and unvaccinated alike are going around without masks, refusing to self-quarantine, and pretending the pandemic is over for them. This is selfishness and immaturity on a scale we can actually measure, reflected to us in our astounding case numbers, which are shrugged off as somehow inconsequential now.


Things keep getting worse precisely because we don’t tolerate the slightest inconvenience. We wait until a problem personally impacts us, and then we lose our shit. We throw tantrums worse than any toddler. The ones who flout mandates are the first ones to spit on nurses and yell death threats at them when they need a hospital bed.


It’s truly revolting.


We keep ignoring common sense, and then looking for someone else to blame when it blows up in our face.


It’s ironic…


When Americans talk about personal responsibility, they’re never talking about themselves. They always mean someone else. It’s the other groups who need to work harder. It’s that guy over there. It’s that Karen having a meltdown in Victoria’s Secret.


It’s never us.


In America, the phrase “personal responsibility” is just a phrase we use to deflect attention from our own shitty behavior.


It’s not a personal philosophy.


It’s an excuse.


The cult of positive thinking has failed, too.


Americans hope and hope.


They never plan.


They ridicule and denounce people for “doom and gloom,” while throwing common sense down on the ground and stomping on it.


I have a message for these people:


Don’t ever talk to me about hope or optimism again. I’ve seen enough. Your hope and optimism are dangerous drugs. True hope can only exist in a time and place where people do the right thing, and take care of each other, or at least don’t cheer for each other’s deaths. This country has gorged itself on empty hope, and now it’s choking.


True hope lives in my house, between me and my family members, my closet friends, and my readers. It’s baked into every word I write, because I believe we can do better than this shit show we’ve performed so far. Otherwise, I would stop writing and start selling crypto. Don’t bring your fake, glittery fool’s hope anywhere near us.


We don’t want it.


There’s a small number of people, maybe a third of us, who’ve been doing the right thing the whole time. We’re sick of being told to think positive while the majority of Americans destroy what’s left of our healthcare system, all so they can go out shopping and drinking.


My only hope right now is that I can protect my child long enough for her to get vaccinated somehow, and that we can survive this pandemic of reckless, callous, shallow self-interest. I hope that maybe she can enjoy a few months of preschool before she turns five.


That’s all I want, and I’m doing everything I can to make it happen. Unfortunately, my plans hinge on other people doing the right thing and giving a shit about someone else, and we’ve been thoroughly disappointed on that front for going on two years.


Positive thinking and optimism don’t work.


Hope isn’t given.


It’s earned.


This is bigger than red vs. blue.


You know what?


I’m done hating on republicans for now. We’ve spent a lot of time talking about bloodthirsty conspiracy theorists over the last year or so, and we know they’re almost beyond hope. They’ve done a lot of damage, but right now they’re not the ones in charge of our policies.


This time, it’s the “liberals.”


I’m truly appalled at some of the condescending indifference I see coming from smug elitists who are now busy telling parents and caretakers of immunocompromised people that they don’t matter, lecturing them about how “Not everything’s about you.”


“We have to move on.”


Jesus Christ.


Many of the liberal pundits and public intellectuals who were wagging their finger at reckless Covid policies from last year are now demanding we “learn to live with it,” even as our current plans fall apart, leaving tens of millions of people essentially helpless. It’s disgraceful, and because of them I’m ashamed I ever called myself a democrat.


I’m done.


Yes, there’s a point in talking about this.


Someone recently told me it’s pointless to keep writing about the pandemic. They’re right, in the sense that I’m no longer trying to persuade anyone to do the right thing. That time has passed.


I don’t really care if my words bug anyone, or if some people get annoyed with me or my pessimistic attitude.


Besides, there’s a point.


First, millions of us are looking for words to express what we’re thinking and feeling right now as America leads the world into the darkest hour of the pandemic yet, even while the media continues its daily deluge of “good news” in order to justify another foolish attempt to haul us back into offices and classrooms where we have absolutely no reason to feel safe. There are a lot of emotions, and we need to articulate them.


Otherwise, we’ll burst.


There’s a point in talking about America’s colossal failure, because it’s profound. It’s on a moral level. We failed to take care of each other. We failed to be proactive. We failed to live up to our ideals. We failed to keep our promises, and now everyone’s paying.


As a country, we continue to abuse the idea of responsibility, only using that word in its cheapest, most superficial sense. We should be asking ourselves what kind of country loosens its quarantine guidelines while the rest of the world is imposing restrictions and mandates. We should be asking what kind of country does nothing but cajole Americans back to work and school while hospitalizations among children skyrocket.


I’ll tell you what kind…


It’s a country that has lost its moral center. It’s a country that has lost any semblance of its values, a country that has lost sight of what really matters. It’s a country showing everyone its true spirit right now, right in line with its heritage of theft and oppression. We keep saying we’re better than our past, but we keep replaying its greatest hits.


This one’s going platinum.


I am the DZ Queen, and I approve this message.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 10:44am

Great post ViQueen!

Just this morning two headlines jumped out at me- One is the sherriff's office here in the Virginia Beach area is down numerous deputies due to illness so they can't perform all of their necessary duties and two- our new governor of Virginia had his first assembly meeting maskless and will be rescinding the school mask mandate right away when he takes office tomorrow.




'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 11:29am

ViQueen, impressive, thank you....

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojTAxYheSns[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojTAxYheSns 

Arvo Pärt  - Da Pacem 

Do not stand at my grave and weep;
I am not there. I do not sleep.
I am a thousand winds that blow.
I am the diamond glints on snow.
I am the sunlight on ripened grain.
I am the gentle autumn rain.
When you awaken in the morning's hush
I am the swift uplifting rush
Of quiet birds in circled flight.
I am the soft stars that shine at night.
Do not stand at my grave and cry;
I am not there. I did not die.

time for reflection....([url]https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_not_stand_at_my_grave_and_weep[/url] or https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Do_not_stand_at_my_grave_and_weep )

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 9:17pm

DJ, 

Let me today start with [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/uk-sage-new-omicron-wave-predicted-for-april-2022/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/uk-sage-new-omicron-wave-predicted-for-april-2022/

“These projections are extended to the end of July 2022. These show an ‘exit’ wave due to increased mixing and waning vaccine immunity. Precise timing and magnitude of this exit wave is highly dependent on both population behaviour and the scale of the current wave and cannot be predicted with any certainty. “

UK SAGE Document: University of Warwick: Omicron modelling, 6 January 2022 

and referring to [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma , [url]https://twitter.com/flodebarre[/url] or https://twitter.com/flodebarre and [url]https://twitter.com/LenaSchimmel[/url] or https://twitter.com/LenaSchimmel trying to follow the BA.2-Omicron variant. 

On a global level BA.1 now is dominant-however with often some Delta-subvariants still around. South(ern) Africa may have a lot of BA.3 Omicron. There are indications BA.2 is that different from BA.1 it is taking over from BA.1. [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports?pango=BA.2&loc=DNK&selected=Worldwide&overlay=false newest info from january 8-so at best giving a week old view...

BA.2 is dominant in Denmark [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/denmark/ resulting in a very high level of new cases-latest weekly trend still +5% for cases-deaths +64%, 125 deaths last week on a population of 5,8 million. 

India, Philippines are two other countries with high level of BA.2 Omicron...resulting in cases "exploding", deaths going up high speed as well. 

Omicron is not " just one variant" but a family of subvariants. Delta did see over 200 subvariants-some still increasing. With the present very high numbers-over 3 million cases reported for a third day-and sequencing capacity now unable to deal with these numbers even more we are "blind".








Question for animal influenza twitter - did pandemic H2N2 never stably infect pigs? Do we have any idea why when pandemic H1N1 and H3N2 did pretty well in swine?

DJ Another point is co-infections of Omicron-most BA.1 for now with flu most H3N2 resulting in more severe disease in a.o. Latin America and Israel. 

Israel-high level of boosters-cases +155%, deaths +88%. [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ISR latest info january 10-BA.1 at 38%, other 19%, latest info however [url]https://www.timesofisrael.com/number-of-seriously-ill-covid-patients-climbs-to-over-300-with-40000-new-cases/[/url] or https://www.timesofisrael.com/number-of-seriously-ill-covid-patients-climbs-to-over-300-with-40000-new-cases/ BA.2 is on the rise in Israel. 

One of many things going wrong in this pandemic is communications. "Delta" may be hundreds of subvariants, Omicron is NOT just the BA.1 "somewhat "milder" type". BA.2 is bad ! 

My non-expert impression is that even good experts, the best epidemiologists, virologists could be missing this...since this kind of pandemic is unseen since the Spanish Flu of 1918-19 I believe a "helicopterview" may be welcome to balance a certain "tunnel vision" experts can offer. 

Medical historians with knowledge of how earlier pandemics unfolded could provide another view and result in better scenario's and strategies. 

We need to restart how we deal with this pandemic. So far the strategies, priorities, only did get us deeper into a pandemic swamp. We may learn in a very hard way that "living with the virus" -like living as if it was a sort of flu-is unrealistic. 

We did see lots of CoVid outbreaks in animals-ending with killing all of the animals. A COrona VIral Disease (CoViD) is NOT a flu ! They may ba as different as a lion from a bear....

Starting another war is not a solution....

End of part 1

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 10:17pm

part 2, 

Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ...

The reported numbers for cases at best give some indications. Real numbers may be 10x the reported ones...lots of people may catch BA.1 of Omicron and not notice it....at least for now. Problem is the virus may hide in your body. You can get an (upper respitory to start with-virus get in via that route) infection first...however if the virus is able to get inside a host body it may infect later on at other places, organs....it is at least a two-step proces. A third step may be in how the body, immunity (over)reacts...

Global (under)reported cases january 14 was 3,192, 268 cases +35%, "only"7,792 deaths +13%...we did see higher number of deaths earlier on. But Omicron "just started" and given the high speed spread, hospitals at limits, deaths will go up. I do think we could be seeing 30,000 to 50,000 deaths per day soon. Unclear what BA.2 will do how some Delta sub-variants will decelop, other variants that may show up. 

The US reporting 824,620 new cases +20%, France 329, 371 +34%, India 268,833 new cases, trend +193%. The top 10 for reported cases then has Italy, Spain, Argentina, Australia and Brazil all reporting over 100,000 new cases. UK just under that 100,000 at #9., trend for cases -30%. Germany at #10, 80,080 new cases-trend +51%. 

The Philippines at #14 with 37,207 cases-trend +229% but most likely not enough test capacity-like India, Brazil...

France has much more restrictions then the UK. But the UK may be "further" in the "proces" cases going down deaths +67% with France deaths "only" +3%. 

Argentina is also remarkable; very high numbers-cases still +66%, deaths +83% so "not at a peak yet". [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ARG[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=ARG BA.1 Omicron 35% last 60 days-dominant last days-still AY.25 of Delta 28% last 60 days and still around. 

Canada cases -20%, deaths +86% may be over "a peak". 

South Africa cases -31%, deaths +43% may be even a bit further "post-peak"....

Regions;  

Of the almost 3,2 million reported cases, 7,792 deaths

Europe did see 1,223,284 cases - 3,108 deaths-both now under the 50% of global cases/deaths, trend +17% for cases, +4% for deaths

North America 933,440 cases, 2,655 deaths, trend +22% for cases, +24% for deaths

South America 334,320 cases, 550 deaths, trend +100% for cases, +36% for deaths

So "The America's"    1,267,760 cases 3,205 deaths - not that different from Europe. However Europe may be closer to "a peak" ...looking at trends.

Asia reporting 524,455 cases +113%, 1,101 deaths +10% still in the early stages of Omicron spread

Africa 41,769 cases -10%, 321 deaths reported +21%...post peak. Testing limited-but has been limited all the time...

Oceania (most Australia) 135,000 new cases (134,508 from Australia) trend +110%, 57 deaths (56 of them Australian) +224% weekly trend. 

Of the 40 million+ people in Oceania allmost 26 million live in Australia...still New Zealand cases "only" +4% -only 1 death in the last 7 days is showing a different "pattern" then Australia does. 

How a country is doing has to do with lots of factors;

-Sub-variant spreading, in general Omicron is high speed spread, but BA.2 may spread even faster then BA.1

-Restrictions, UK has "freedom" and may be lucky BA.2 only is limited, most UK citizens more wise then "partyleader BoJo&Co",

-UK also further in spread-so is a variant just showing up=high number of cases...in UK BA.1 by now going down

-Summer/winter, age is also a factor. Can a country protect the more vulnerables ? 

-Communications matter, countries with more clear communications most of the time (like Germany) may do better

However long-CoVid is not easy te give a good definition for, it may not even be "post-viral" in the sense that the virus still may be doing a lot of damage but not in the respitory system...blood tests would give a better indication-not only for the virus but also to see if there are infections...maybe even immunity deregulated...(resulting in an increase of auto-immune diseases, diabetes-2, ).

People that did survive ICU/intubation may have PTSD, depression, long term organ damage...

CoViD is complex ! That is why I take time on this forum to try "to get some limited view" on "what is happening"....

-During this pandemic there was a pattern-a timeline. A variant showed up-did take some time to spread worldwide (not stopped by limiting air-travel governments only showing action AFTER the variant did spread-3 times so far (Wuhan/wild type early 2020, Delta april-2021, Omicron november 2021). 

There were clear "peaks" and "lows" a clear global dominant variant. Vaccinations were supposed to "get us out" of the pandemic...a "bizarre" vaccination-strategy did undo what vaccines could have given us...Vaccinated people did get "freedom" while still catching/spreading the virus...vaccines do still protect against severe disease-but NEVER stopped catching the virus that much that only vaccinations would be enough to get out of this pandemic. 

Delta allready had increased immunity escape, Omicron sub-variants are even better in evading immunity.  (However ADE-increase of spread via the immune system-did NOT show up. Also "good news" is-so far Omicron NOT "exploding" in non-human hosts as far as detected/tested/reported.)

Via worldometer numbers one can see where the "peak of the wave" is at a certain moment. A few weeks ago Europe had 60% of global cases, now it may have dropped to around 40%-with more cases in the America's, Asia, Oceania. 

Another main point-for now-we still have a dominant variant (now Omicron-with subvariants) and a clear pattern of peaks and lows. 

Omicron was "high speed" in increasing cases, may "drop" high speed as well. Timing with christmas and new year meant we did miss a lot of developments, testing, reporting, sequencing-while those days did see massive spread of most Omicron. 

Some "love to suggest" "mild Omicron" will "end the pandemic". Even some "experts" promote catching "mild Omicron" to increase (herd) immunity....

You have to ignore both the history of this-and other-pandemic(s) and ignore long-CoViD to "get this kind of insanity out of your mouth"....

Everyone with some brains would love this pandemic to be over. Lots of small bussinesses facing bankruptcy...but "wishing it was over" is not a solution...

One of the patterns that may change is that it will get more unclear what the dominant variant is, if we are in a peak or a low...I think Omicron sub-variants do change "the picture" even more then Delta sub-variants did and still do. 

Delta is NOT gone, may still stick around...could regain dominance in some area's with some sub-variants. Other global regions could see BA.2 Omicron taking over from BA.1...BA.2 being allmost another variant-may develop further away from BA.1. 

Other variants are still very limited, most in poor countries but Europe, North America may see new variants showing up in vaccinated people. 

It could be a matter of time & testing before we see Omicron did spread in non-human hosts. Co-infection with other diseases-like H3N2 in some regions-further may complicate this-far from over-pandemic. 

What is needed-and still missing-is a LONG TERM strategy...a re-balance between economy and this pandemic. It is time for better plans !

End of part 2

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 14 2022 at 11:56pm

part 3, 








U.S. COVID update: New cases at record-high, but data suggests a peak is near - New cases: 926,693 - Average: 815,826 (+3,618) - States reporting: 48/50 - In hospital: 155,527 (+1,396) - In ICU: 25,878 (+257) - New deaths: 2,786 More data: https://newsnodes.com/us

DJ, from NL; [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/dutch-cabinet-loosens-lockdown-restrictions-amid-record-high-covid-infections[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/dutch-cabinet-loosens-lockdown-restrictions-amid-record-high-covid-infectionsWith coronavirus infections at record high levels, but Covid-19 hospitalizations approaching an 11-week low, the Dutch government decided to relax several coronavirus restrictions starting on Saturday. Lockdown restrictions affecting higher education, retail, fitness centers, organized sports, and close contact professionals were loosened, but hospitality and cultural sector businesses still have to stay closed. While some quarantine rules were also relaxed, stricter face mask recommendations were issued.

So high number of cases-still a different picture...[url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/netherlands-tops-35000-coronavirus-infections-first-time-hospital-total-falls[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/14/netherlands-tops-35000-coronavirus-infections-first-time-hospital-total-falls ...We may face 80,000+ new cases-being tested/reported-testing capacity going up from 100,000 tests per day to 200,000 per day end of this month. 

Still the real number of cases will be much higher-lots of people may not get any symptoms after infection (both short term AND long term if they are lucky). So numbers only give indications. BA.2 is also increasing in NL...may "change the picture" within a few weeks in a very bad way. 

One of the reasons why the US is seeing massive record hospital cases and NL is not may be in NL level of vaccinations...(NL boosters still not at the level wanted-but still increasing). Another factor may be mask use, people more able for limiting contacts/risks in NL. (Internet in NL is among the most widespread in the world-shopping via the internet may become larger then shopping in real shops in NL, maybe the US is not going that far...). 

Of course we still have a sort of "lockdown" in NL...US-in general-may see less restrictions from the state/government. Maybe NL is even a bit further in Omicron-BA.1 spread then the US is....so we should be seeing higher hospital cases/deaths...

Maybe alook at some numbers comparing the US and NL...

So far the US did see 198,227 cases per million of population, 2,611 deaths per million. NL did see 203,623 cases per million, still deaths at 1,230...but a lot of deaths in care centers not included. But even if you double the number-2,460 deaths per million-still is lower then the US number...more cases per million maybe related to more testing ? 

USA had 2,564,277 tests per million, NL "only" 1,227,668 tests per million. At home testing however has been promoted-is easy to get and cheap in NL...As far as I understand it may be harder and more expensive in the US. A test in NL is around 3 US$...every supermarket, drugstore-both essential and still open-has one...

US trends for both cases and deaths at +20%, NL cases +45%, deaths -45%...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant#Statistics US Omicron cases 95,217 GISAID-number, NL 1,657 GISAID -even if you go 20x 1,657 you end up at 33,000 Omicron cases...did Omicron so far-still spread less in NL ? 

[url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=USA ; US last 60 days BA.1 at 29%, AY.103 (Delta) at 18%, "other" also at 18%...

NL [url]https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD[/url] or https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=NLD ; last 60 days AY.43 Delta at 43%, "other"at 18%, BA.1-Omicron just 15%-Omicron spread started around the same time for both the US and NL (around mid december) so somehow BA.1 did see a chance to spread twice as fast in the US as in NL. For that matter NL-NPI, including a limited lockdown may show effect. 

On the other side of this story is NL could face much more increase of Omicron...we may have "started BA.1 spread" at the same time-school reopening may still have to show up in these numbers...(a week+ old).  

In the last week the US had 38 deaths per million, NL "just" 4...

The picture I have to explain differences between the US and NL (doing very bad in this pandemic for West-European standards, a.o. in excess deaths) ;

-Vaccination level in NL is very high, 87,4% of 12 y/o+ did at least get one vaccination-84,5% is fully vaccinated. Allmost 50% of 18 y/o in NL did get a booster. 

-Restrictions/vaccines still may be less "political" in NL then in the US

-Interner may be another factor, tele-working, shopping, study needs good internet coverage...

-health insurance will be a factor. We do have public healthcare in NL-still-US more private...but is that such a main factor ? 

-NL has more older age people then the US, chronic diseases maybe more widespread in the US (obesity/diabetes, narcotics...)

So another look at variants...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Statistics US did see 1,099,811 detections of Delta, NL 33,128 (both december 19 numbers) ...even if you would go for 20x NL number to get near the US you end up at 660,000 Delta cases-so did Delta spread less in NL as well ? (Sequencing for both US and NL may be even be "better" in NL-so NL would have to find MORE of the variants...) 

The US has much more air/long distance travel then NL...last summer lots of people in NL had their vacation in or near NL...also in NL most family/friends may live not that far away...so maybe "spread of contacts" also a factor-resulting in more variant-spread-so more cases/deaths for the US ? 

"Politics" is also a major US "problem" with republicans tending to deny there is a pandemic...being a major factor in society. In NL only one marginal political "group" is claiming this pandemic is a hoax. 

If anything NL may have a larger group of people living in urban area's...maybe 2/3 of NL population could be seen as "urban", US may be around 50% of its population ? 

DJ-What I try to say is how a pandemic unfolds is a very complex story. Politics do play a role but is NOT even the main factor since some basics are long term...spread of contacts, internet-use, age and chronic illness. 

On top of that some countries are in a much better position to keep diseases/variants out...also in part political (China making public health and fight against poverty as a basis for its political system) but also location (New Zealand is different from NL...).

Understanding factors at play is seeing tools to influence developments-recognizing "weak spots"...








Doctors: “our hospitals are full & we are burning out” Public health folks: “we need more vaccinations, better masks, rapid tests” WSJ dude: “letting Omicron rip is a great way to end the pandemic”

National history, culture are background factors. Western Europe does have 200 years of industrial revolution...the US-for the most part-has been much less industrial but-even now-agriculture production and export, the global largest oil-producer via fracking. 

Europe has smaller countries in wich social affairs-often with help from both churches and trade unions/left wing parties did translate into better social laws for the working. In the US any idea of government setting rules for how its population is dealing with healthcare is much less accepted. Churches and trade unions did not see their activities translated into law but in organizing charity on a more local level. 

End of part 3

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 15 2022 at 9:51pm

DJ, 

Let me start with things I also do not understand myself [url]https://covariants.org/variants/21L.Omicron[/url] or https://covariants.org/variants/21L.Omicron on BA.2 Omicron...








too early to say anything on severity (though should become clear pretty soon vs BA.1). pretty early on transmissibility also but appears to be growing relative to BA.1 in several countries which may be indicative of slightly higher transmissibility...again should know more soon

How bad is it ? Did bring high number of cases in Denmark...but they are reopening...?  With DK cases +23%, deaths +14% in worldometers...

India cases +150%, deaths +14% as well, Philippines cases +159%, deaths +23%...but also Israël cases +141%, deaths +113%...

  Another point is flu...H5N1-most-exploding around the globe...but also some other forms...with some of them H5N6 also limited spread in humans. H3N2-flu coïnfections in a.o. Brazil, Israël...How likely is it we will see a "bad flu season", how many cases of co-infection of flu (most H3N2) with Omicron (will that be BA.1 or do H3N2 and BA.2 "cooperate better" ?)

It would be so welcome if we-by now-had a sort of global program on sharing-testing samples. To react there where cases go up-find out what is causing the increase. Maybe even be able to react with increase of most fitting vaccinations and NPI-restrictions...

To detect variants in an early stage and in the region where they start spreading. To contain that variant in that region and try to limit it the best we can...A global approach-not national ones-with enough means to get on top of it-like we had with Ebola-outbreaks...

Instead of that we are very close to World War Three because after NApoleon, NAzi's now NAto "needs to move east" ...Trying to push over the sitting dictator in Kazahkstan and replace it with most likely a sort of IS-like terror regime meant to destroy Russia-Iran-China cooperation..

US now talking with EU on selling more US fracking-oil to replace Russian oil and gas....'the joy of good friendship"....

-A look at numbers on where we are and where we are going [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ;

Global cases 2,408,606 trend +25%, deaths 5,710 trend +10%...

Number of tested&reported cases-increase is going down...at a certain moment the numbers are that high we reach testing capacity...also what is the point of testing when "media" keep repeating "it is only mild"....For now numbers of deaths is still "low" when you look at numbers of deaths per day during all of this pandemic. 

So far it did take 2 to 4 weeks most from people testing positive to people dying from CoViD. In some countries hospitals are running out of capacity...here in NL hospital numbers for CoViD are at a "low" expected to start increasing but-for now-leaving room for more non-CoViD care much needed. 

What I try to do here in scenario's is use "public tools" to see how this pandemic is developing...

South Africa cases -34%, deaths +35% may indicate Omicron (elsewhere did see SA had a lot of BA.3 subvariant of Omicron)  only "makes a short visit"...On twitter SA Omicron deaths "would be 30% of Delta-wave-deaths"...DJ However "dying from Omicron in South(ern) Africa is still ongoing...it is much to early to claim " Omicron is less deathly then Delta"...Not only is South Africa in summer, has a young population but also they just came out of a Delta wave that may have increased a certain level of widespread "herd immunity"...

"Jumping to wanted conclusions" is a form of hopium-not science...Experts are also human-also tired of this pandemic. 

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues has news on mutations in subvariants...[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/403[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/403 AY.33-Delta sublineage in limited European countries growing 13%...

DJ So far the new dominant variant did replace 99%+ the old variant...it did take time to do so around the globe. But that pattern may have changed...

 Of course another "tool" is following the news [url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/while-the-u-s-cdc-is-cutting-isolating-periods,-new-uk-study-reports-that-one-in-10-people-with-covid-19-could-still-be-infectious-beyond-10-days-and[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/while-the-u-s-cdc-is-cutting-isolating-periods,-new-uk-study-reports-that-one-in-10-people-with-covid-19-could-still-be-infectious-beyond-10-days-and limiting economic disruption lots of countries now limit/drop time for isolation after contact with a person with a positive test and/or symptoms...or even when you had a booster and test positive yourself...Even when Omicron is harder to find via the mosed used tests-including PCR...In China a person tested positive after three weeks-being in isolation most of the time, testing negative lots of times....

Since the virus does spread in the body-attaches itself to ACE-2 receptors allover the body-airways only the "way in"- (It is NOT a respitory virus ! It only does a lot of damage there FIRST !!!! Because you breath it in via aerosols the virus gets in .....media coming up with more insane nonsens "lung-virus"...)

So testing upper respitory system-even nose and mouth-is no guarantee you detect it. Virus also "comes out" to be detected in sewage. It would be welcome if people could have a test for their stool...It may become a better way for testing for CoViD...

-We "have to live with it"....even some good experts go for that story...With others-more history minded-ask if that would mean accepting life expectancy to drop to 40-50 years...bringing us back to "good old times"...19-18th century...but only for the poor in the high risk jobs..."We" here means "low risk workers" telling "high risk workers" THEY have to live with it...on top of climate collapse risks, higher risks from bad air quality etc...

"Live with it" also means "we will not stop it, fight it..."-see it like another type of flu. "We live with that as well"...again WRONG !!!! CoViD is NOT like a flu, it is much more agressive, killing a lot more people, developing high speed...vaccines-so far-do not do a good enough job in this pandemic. 

While "flu" has become somewhat constant...in a bad year global flu-deaths 600,000+, in a good year maybe even under 300,000 deaths (must be statistics some where...giving more educated estimates) the point is "Flu is endemic", via vaccines reasonable under control, predictable-we more or less know the types-wich ones have higher risks (H1N1 did bring the Spanish Flu)...

CoViD is NOT predictable, we have hardly any idea of what to expect in the last two years it did kill millions of people..."live with it" is kicking the can down the road, hoping time will do the job governments had to do...

Today january 16-just out of the first half of the first month of 2022...[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table global cases in the last 7 days; 19,938,226...the week before 15,918,111 so first half of this month so far did see 36 million+ cases, 48,692 and 44,146=92,838 deaths last two weeks..."we have to live with that" ? 

Live with up to 200,000 deaths per month ? Over 75 million cases per month ? We have to see that as "a new normal" , accept that ? 

If we would be willing to accept these numbers and risks for long term serious health damage as "new normal" all hope is gone...

Let us NOT give up hope ! We deserve better !

End of part 1 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Part 2 -news dump;

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/infection/some-people-still-infectious-with-covid-after-68-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/infection/some-people-still-infectious-with-covid-after-68-days/

The study, published in the international Journal of Infectious Diseases found that 13 per cent of people still exhibited clinically-relevant levels of virus after 10 days, meaning they could potentially still be infectious. Some people retained these levels for up to 68 days. The authors believe this new test should be applied in settings where people are vulnerable, to stop the spread of COVID-19.

Professor Lorna Harries, of the University of Exeter Medical School, oversaw the study. She said: “While this is a relatively small study, our results suggest that potentially active virus may sometimes persist beyond a 10 day period, and could pose a potential risk of onward transmission. Furthermore, there was nothing clinically remarkable about these people, which means we wouldn’t be able to predict who they are”.

Exeter.ac.uk report

DJ I think this study may mean viral spread via aerosols...viral spread via stool may last even longer...could even be widespread in people with long CoViD and the virus still active in some parts of the body...but hard to find-even with blood tests (because it may have "locked itself up" only getting active again from time to time-then hiding again...) 

There are several reports of people catching Omicron twice...several complications...1-Omicron now split up in several subvariants; BA.1 now gaining global dominance allmost-but BA.2 has lots of different mutations..giving more risks for reïnfection..

2-Also earlier the question has to be if the virus was out of the host or did hide in the patiënt and got "re-detected". So not reïnfection but redetection...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-omicron-sub-variant-ba2-increases-to-28-of-samples/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/europe/denmark/denmark-omicron-sub-variant-ba2-increases-to-28-of-samples/

In December 2021, the BA2 sub-variant of Omicron accounted for just two percent of the samples analysed. That number has now risen to 28 percent in the first week of 2022. At the same time, the proportion of cases of BA1 has dropped from 72 to 68 percent. The last four percent is made up of the Delta variant.

The two sub-variants differ by having “significant differences” in the spike protein, but it doesn’t seem to make them more contagious or resistant to vaccines.

Anders Fomsgaard of Denmark’s SSI said “We do not yet see any significant differences in those infected with BA2 in terms of age, vaccine status, breakthrough infections, disease or geographical spread. So apparently there is still nothing that says that one should behave differently than the other. So we lack an explanation.”

Berlingske.de (in Danish)

DJ We are a bit further ; 








Here we go! A dominant BA.2 in Denmark on the 9th of January 2022. 2 days later than I predicted and maybe some extra when data will be complete. But the 2k samples available on the 7th, make it quite clear were it was going already, if you ask me.


The BA.2 share keeps growing in Germany as well. Seems around 3% on the 8th of January. Nice graph from  and  Clapping hands sign

So by now most Danish cases are BA.2 and statistics indicate Danish numbers cases +23%, deaths +14% may give a hint...[url]https://twitter.com/flodebarre[/url] or https://twitter.com/flodebarre following BA.2 increases a.o. in France, [url]https://twitter.com/peacockflu[/url] or https://twitter.com/peacockflu a.o. in the UK...lots of discussion on BA.2 of Omicron. DJ My impression is BA.2 is giving even higher growthrates still in Philipines +159%, India +150% then BA.1 did...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/co-infection/italy-2-cases-of-deltacron-reported-but-theyre-not-recombinant-variants/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/co-infection/italy-2-cases-of-deltacron-reported-but-theyre-not-recombinant-variants/

Doctor Antonia Ricci, director of the Zooprophylactic Institute of the Venezie, said “we do not have a sequence generated by the acquisition of mutations between two different variants. What we have found is not a new strain of Sars Cov-2 that combines Delta and Omicron – the only ones currently in circulation – creating a virological bomb in the common imagination, but rather they are samples that have both variants. In short, Delta and Omicron can co-infect the same person”

Larena.it report (in Italian)

DJ Italian statistics cases +21%, deaths +47%...getting BOTH Delta and Omicron most likely will bring more severe disease..From a pandemic point of view it also means Delta can keep spreading-is not pushed away by Omicron...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/mans-penis-shrinks-by-1-5-inches-after-covid-19-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/mans-penis-shrinks-by-1-5-inches-after-covid-19-infection/

Our results are highly suggestive of the role of the infection in the development of the sexual dysfunction and of the possible clinical relevance of COVID-19 as an additional risk factor for the development of ED.  Additionally, considering the bidirectional interaction between sexual activity and psychological well-being, the removal of the possible influence of anxiety and depression confirmed that the increased prevalence of ED here found is not only a consequence of the psychological burden of lockdown, but also prominently due to other, bona fide organic factors, among which endothelial dysfunction is the most likely culprit.

Preliminary evidence of the association between erectile dysfunction and COVID-19

Maybe some men paying more attention now ? Long-CoViD and a sex-live may be hard to combine...get vaccinated !

Men have ACE-2 receptors in their sex-organs-so the virus can attach even more/better in males. "Let the virus do its thing" is genocide...

Not only "living with the virus" may mean extra millions od CoViD deaths per year-most in the poor, it also will bring down further the birthrate. 

Let the virus provide "non existing herd-immunity" is a form of depopulation...it is criminal and insane...because we do not have any real means of control. It is like "let the wildfire do its thing" near a major city...Do NOT-NEVER EVER buy bulls..t !!!

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-could-also-be-due-to-sars-cov-2-dysregulating-the-human-host-immune-system-for-months-including-downregulating-naive-t-and-b-cells[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/long-covid-could-also-be-due-to-sars-cov-2-dysregulating-the-human-host-immune-system-for-months-including-downregulating-naive-t-and-b-cells  and

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-study-uncovers-similarities-and-differences-between-similarities-between-sars-cov-2-and-hiv-1-infections-in-terms-of-cellular-and-immune-responses[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/new-study-uncovers-similarities-and-differences-between-similarities-between-sars-cov-2-and-hiv-1-infections-in-terms-of-cellular-and-immune-responses 

DJ, What I make of  "a CoViD-infection proces" is; 

1 Initial infection-may give health issues, often respitory (so Omicron often throat inflamation, Delta did do damage to the lower respitory system more-lungs)...because it gets in via the airways..

2 But it may/will spread further all over the body...causing clothing-trombosis, doing damage from hearth to brain...So if the first stage was undetected (mild/no symptoms) the second stage may not even be related-in the medical story- to a CoViD-infection while it is a later stage of it...That is why excess deaths going up may give most likely better indications. In this stage PCR-nasal swab-testing may not find a virus..blood sample testing (or stool testing, anal swabs) will show-most likely for the CoViD-infection.

3 Since the virus may remain in the body-sometimes even "hide" (and testing may not detect it) immunity will (over)react on it...Post-Viral Syndrome, ME-CFS, may have lots of similarities...It can start auto immune disease (Diabetes-2 a.o.), it may result in more inflamations of organs (Multi Inflamatory Syndrome both in Children (MIS-C) and Adults (MIS-A) related...Sometimes it may be hard to find out what is happening. 

For "economic reasons"....some people that are dealing with a lot of damage may face "doctors" claiming it is "all in their head" and up at a psychiatrists giving anti-depressives...be forced to restart a job they no longer can do. 

Just like with Lyme-disease, possibly chronic Q-fever, testing, examining "the old way" may not be able to detect much. I think sometimes GOOD exercise testing-see what a body can do-may be helpfull in some cases. Some people may be able to do a lot of things on day 1, but collapse after day 3...so you need to follow that for a longer time..

If there is serious lung-damage you can test lung-capacity...allways take Long-CoViD (etc) serious...but also try to find ways that can bring improvements. Not being able to "think clear" can be the outcome of CoViD infection but also be related to depression when someone lost his/her job, his/her house due to illness...

Looking at relations between HIV and CoViD (both RNA-virus) should also include how CoViD is unfolding in HIV+ population. From a pandemic point of view does CoViD-spread in large HIV+ population (like in parts of Africa) increase risks of multi resistent TB ? Other illnesses..? 

Does it make even more urgent to do more-global-testing for HIV ? Because HIV+ and COvID increases risks for more other diseases ? 

When you know more you can communicate more...do more on prevention...

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935530-china-a-local-covid-19-omicron-variant-confirmed-in-beijing-january-16-2022[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935530-china-a-local-covid-19-omicron-variant-confirmed-in-beijing-january-16-2022 ; On January 15, at the 266th press conference on the prevention and control of the new coronavirus pneumonia in Beijing, Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Center for Disease Control and Prevention and member of the national new coronavirus pneumonia expert group, introduced, January 15 At 19:29, 1 new local case of new coronary pneumonia was confirmed in Beijing. The case has no history of travel and residence in other provinces and cities in the past 14 days, and no history of contact with related cases. The nucleic acid test of the two co-residents was negative.

DJ A-symptomatic spread, tests doing no longer a good enough job, make it harder for China to limit CoViD without going for more restrictions. 

Still we should be willing to learn a few things from China. They are able to go for massive testing, millions per day, massive vaccinations-also millions per day. China has a more clear and national strategy. May have better communications, more clear rules then most western countries have.  

Of course it is not perfect ! Isolating people without enough food-to stop virusspread is a.o. things unwelcome...But "smart camera's" detecting people with a fever at busy points may be something we have to consider for our own countries. Fever is not the main CoViD-symptom (maybe more related to flu) but you may not want people with fever at a very busy point...however if they are on their way to a hospital maybe healthcare should have "clean-taxi's" for that goal...(paid for by government/health insurance, decontaminated after each ride, driver with extra protection/isolation + booster). 

Here in NL usage of public transport is still below pre-pandemic levels-ending up with even more cars on the street. Safe-taxi's may mean more safe driving...I may not like a driver with long CoViD driving a car; increasing traffic risks (pushing up economic costs...). 

Let me be clear-in my opinion pandemics and mega-sport-events do NOT mix. From last years Japan Olympics, the upcoming "Australian (not so) Open" tennis, to China wninter olympics or soccer world championship in Qatar...just another indication this pandemic is not a global top priority...

Other news; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/undersea-volcano-eruption-triggers-massive-shockwave-tsunami-strikes-south-pacific-island[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/undersea-volcano-eruption-triggers-massive-shockwave-tsunami-strikes-south-pacific-island  the Tonga-volcanic explosion did send a shock-wave around the globe (here in NL 3hpa "jump") but also a tsunami resulting in flooding a.o. in California...

Number of people killed very limited-if any-but still a major global event. 

NATO, after NApoleon, NAzi's "moving east" [url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-deploys-fighter-jets-bombers-to-kaliningrad-europe[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-deploys-fighter-jets-bombers-to-kaliningrad-europe does not only cross a Russian "red line" but also unacceptable for China, Iran, many other countries...It does increase risks for more wars, brings closer risks for "very major wars"...Is there a need for NATO moving east ? It goes against agreements made around 1990 NATO not moving east, also goes against the idea that "increasing security for one country will not increase risk for others"...US putting (nuclear) missiles in Ukraine, Kazahkstan, Taiwan, Finland may be "acceptable" with a lot of bribes-for those countries but NOT acceptable for their neighbours...."It does not make Russia-Iran-China happy"...

Most likely US, UK pushing for another global crisis as distraction from the CoViD-disaster in their countries...France, Germany now trying to "limit damage"...nobody willing to "blow up the world" for further nato-expansion...yet another act of global insanity...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/accelerating-global-warming-and-amplifying-feedbacks-the-imperative-of-co2-drawdown.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/01/accelerating-global-warming-and-amplifying-feedbacks-the-imperative-of-co2-drawdown.html ; According to Solomon et al. (2009) and Eby et al. (2009) high levels of CO₂ on the scale of 10² to 10³ ppm would persist for millennia.

Global emission reductions, decreased in part due to COVID-19 economic slow-down, have little effect on the atmospheric CO₂ level, as indicated by the current trend of atmospheric carbon dioxide, at record high levels despite reduced emissions in 2020 (Figure 2). This suggests to a significant extent the current rise in atmospheric CO₂ arises from amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean.

-

All taking place notwithstanding hollow promises made at COP26, a meeting noted for the near-absence of contributions by climate scientists.

In trying to avoid an exponential rise in greenhouse gases toward catastrophic levels, one option exists, namely urgent attempts at drawing down at least part of the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere. The $trillions of dollars required, constituting the “Price of the Earth”, may not exceed the $trillion dollars military expenses spent by the world over the last 70 years, including nuclear missile fleets which constitute a separate threat for life on Earth, as warned by Albert Einstein: “The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking and we thus drift toward unparalleled catastrophe”.

DJ Tsunami's hitting (sea)ice "not good"  on top of global "warming"...(a house-fire is "house-warming" ?) To"save the economy" =get the rich even more rich..."climate change" was taken away from climate science by "politicians, economists, bankers..."...We may expect the same with "public health; living with the virus" ...it will become a "bussiness model" creating "profit-oppertunities" for those that created the problem to start with...

End of part 2...making my mind up...describing things may be a way of dealing with it...however not accepting it...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 2:06am

DJ-part 3, 

I could start with: The main reason why people do not learn much from history is they do NOT want to learn from history...I could also start with; Stupid people make stupid mistakes, clever people make clever mistakes...Or even; I wise person knows (s)he knows nothing...

"Letting the virus do its thing", "the show must go on" decissions are made by clever people however in strange tunnel-visions...YES It is hard to deal with climate change, this pandemic (or the relations between them). But that does not mean you do not need to deal with it...

On the other side of the story are the limits we-as humans-have to face. Did we "create gods" because we dream of "being gods" ? (It is sunday...). 

[url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2022/01/a-volcano-explodes-off-island-of-tonga.html[/url] or http://www.thebigwobble.org/2022/01/a-volcano-explodes-off-island-of-tonga.html (DJ-Like Hal Turner-I most often disagree with most of the idea's behind ir-however if a story may make sense I link it...)

An underwater volcano has erupted off the island of Tonga blasting rocks, ash and steam an incredible 60,000ft, almost 20km into the sky which will have a cooling climate effect for at least the next couple of months and depending on the duration and size of the eruption could cool the planet...

The shock wave from the eruption is expected to reverberate around the world and windows have been broken from the blast hundreds of km's away.

The strength of the massive eruption was VEI 5, let me put that into some kind of perspective, the famous Krakatau eruption in 1883 was a VEI 6. According to Wikipedia, the Krakatau eruption caused a volcanic winter. In the year following the eruption, average Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures fell by 0.4 °C (0.72 °F). The record rainfall that hit Southern California during the water year from July 1883 to June 1884 – Los Angeles received 970 millimetres (38.18 in) and San Diego 660 millimetres (25.97 in) – has been attributed to the Krakatoa eruption. 

This eruption could be the perfect geological event to cool the planet and will have the climate change people jumping with joy! 

DJ-We may need a lot of volcanic activity like this one to make a more serious difference...

2022 has seen a remarkable uptick in solar, seismic and volcanic activity in the first couple of weeks of the new year.

The fledgling new year has already surprised many scientists and experts as 2022 begins its first baby steps into the unknown. 

Record number of major quakes starts off the new year!

It is very early days indeed but halfway through January 2022 and our planet is throwing quite a few surprises our way! On the 11th of January, two powerful major quakes, a mag 6.8 and a mag 6.6 rocked Alaska's Aleutian Islands. The two major quakes,(mag 6 or higher) in Alaska brought the total to 11 in the first 11 days of 2022 which is quite a start to the year, well—it's a record, going back further than 1900. As far as I can see from the USGS data base 11 major quakes in first 11 days of a year has never happened before. And, it hasn't stopped, this morning a magnitude 6.6 rocked the Sunda Straight in Indonesia bringing the total to 12 major quakes, (mag 6 or higher) in the first 14 days of January, 2022.

We know seismic events on earth are influenced by our sun and so far this year the sunspot count is more than out-performing the "experts" predictions.

DJ Increase of both seismic (and thus) volcanic activities, increase of pandemics are both related to a global heating proces pushing "live" out of places where it did find a balance to exist. 

But relating these events with human actions would make "us" realize we are destroying our home-planet. 

"Market economy", a competition for "economic growth" based on money created out of thin air-"balanced" by "ideas" of future further economic growth resulted in an "economy build on melting ice"...

In my idea of history the goal of history is looking at how human species try "to make a living" over the centuries...What was and is important, from religion (often totalitarian, churches as dictators telling people how to live in detail on a daily basis...taliban/IS-style...only with "another god"...).

Do those that claim "let the virus do its thing" realize the major consequences it has on public health, population growth, life expectancy ? I do doubt it...

Does the "tunnel vision" "countries can decide for themselves if they want to join NATO" look at both how Russia may see it, timing-the pandemic getting even further out of control in the US, UK and some other NATO-members..."No" it is a short sighted wrong idea that you can ignore Russian safety concerns based on an also wrong idea "NATO is defensive"...after NATO was involved in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya...If Russia RE-acts "it is Russian agression" against a "peacefull NATO moving east"idea...Russia-lots of other countries-do not see NATO the way NATO likes to present itself...

The way you think of yourself (most likely will change both short term and long term) is NOT the way others see you...You can not be every ones best friend-should not even try to be...

Media-Experts-Politics have an idea of "how to deal with this pandemic" partly based on how they see themselves, what they expect from themselves, what they think "others" expect from them...with "others" in part party sponsors, in part voters for a next election...no long term plans needed....if you lose the election you are out.  Media needs advertisers, experts/politics for info...Experts need good publicity for their "essential studies" to get funded...

So it is a circle, if not allready a downward spiral....Politics in control of tax/fiat money demanding "experts", "media" not to get that critical...

Most likely in some form this "powercycle" has been there for thousend of years..."division of labor", specialized jobs bringing the group further...those with knowledge on how to make fire, weapons, get food, in special places...cattle/food as trade when money was not there...

We may now face a "crisis" in human creativity on how to be around on this planet and "make the best of it"....Taking "a few steps back" is a very "friendly way" to say something that is very awful..."a few steps back" will "change the way we survive"....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset#Criticism[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset#Criticism ;

Some critics hence see it as a continuation by the World Economic Forum's strategy to focus on connotated activist topics such as environmental protection[53] and social entrepreneurship[54] to disguise the organization's true plutocratic goals.[55][56][57]

Naomi Klein, in a December 2020 article in The Intercept, described the WEF idea as a "Great Reset Conspiracy Smoothie." She said that it was simply a "coronavirus-themed rebranding" of things that the WEF was already doing and that it was an attempt by the rich to make themselves look good. Klein wrote that Schwab had given each meeting at Davos a theme since 2003. "The Great Reset is merely the latest edition of this gilded tradition, barely distinguishable from earlier Davos Big Ideas."[58]

In his review of the 2020 book co-authored by Schwab and Malleret—and the Great Reset agenda in general—Ben Sixsmith, a contributor to The Spectator, said that the Great Reset was a set of "bad ideas...adopted internationally by some of the richest and most powerful people in the world".[59][3] Sixsmith described sections of the book as "earnest", glum, dutiful and bland.[60]

Similarly, in his review of COVID-19: The Great Reset, ethicist Steven Umbrello makes parallel critiques of the agenda. He says that the agenda amounts to nothing other than "a substantial (if not complete) socio-political-economic overhaul" and that such a proposal is a "false dilemma" and that "Schwab and Malleret whitewash a seemingly optimistic future post-Great Reset with buzz words like equity and sustainability even as they functionally jeopardize those admirable goals".[61]

Also [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset#Conspiracy_theory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Reset#Conspiracy_theory 

The term "Great Reset" can also refer to a conspiracy theory, named after the conference, which suggests that some world leaders planned and executed the COVID-19 pandemic in order to take control of the world economy.[62]

A November 2020 article in The Daily Beast saw the Great Reset conspiracy theory as the first to emerge during the Presidency of Joe Biden.[63] Mainstream media outlets such as The New York Times, the BBC, and The Guardian traced the spread of the latest conspiracy theory on the Great Reset, which had integrated anti-lockdown conspiracies, to internet personalities and groups, including Candace OwensGlenn BeckFox NewsLaura Ingraham and Tucker Carlson,[46][64][15][65] and Paul Joseph Watson,[66] the UK-based editor of Alex Jones' website Infowars, where he advanced the New World Order conspiracy theory.[67] Ben Sixsmith wrote that the conspiracy theory had been spread by "fringes of Right-Wing Twitter", as well as by Australia's One Nation party leader Pauline Hanson (a "‘socialist left Marxist view of the world’") and UK conservative writer James Delingpole (a "global communist takeover plan"). However, Sixsmith observed the WEF's partners include such capitalist enterprises as Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, IBM, IKEA, Lockheed Martin, Ericsson and Deloitte.[60]

An October 2020 article by Snopes[68] traced the origins of a chain email posted on conspiracy forums from a member of a non-existent committee within the Liberal Party of Canada that leaked Canada's secret "COVID Global Reset Plan" to the QAnon-dedicated "Q Research" board on 8kun.[69]

DJ The right wing extremist reaction and criticism of more left wing intelectuals [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naomi_Klein[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naomi_Klein do not have to exclude eachother...can both even end up being run by the "rich elite" they critiziced...Still also that "elite" "NWO New World Order...(based on money...so not "new"...) does not have the final word...

Nature can be very cruel when it starts "self correcting".....

End of part 3 (I did write something on how this pandemic is developing socio-economic in "Food shortages"...of course a worsening pandemic brings other crises...). 


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Littlesmile Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 16 2022 at 7:13am

The 'process' of this virus is so strange especially with more and more evidence/cases of long covid. The unusual vein/blood flow problems would be funny if it wasn't such a serious subject. It is not just the old and unhealthy this is effecting.. I think this will be the key that finally makes people think differently and take action. I feel long covid will be the real struggle! 

:-)
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Littlesmile, ;-), I think-unless we get a "massive killer"variant of CoViD, you are correct-the long term damage, "long CoViD" (in many forms) may trigger a major reaction...Certainly if "mild" Omicron would also be resulting in a certain percentage of people getting "chronic healthissues"...

One problem is there is not yet a very clear definition for "Long CoViD" (like there is not realy a good definition for ME-CFS, part of the Long CoViD-problem). So it is hard to get good statistics...

In this pandemic "cases" are-most-seen as people testing positive, but testing positive for Omicron (BA.1 subvariant) is seen as less a problem then testing positive for Delta (with lots of sub-variants...some experts did expect Delta would be the stop for variants, Delta developing into-by now-allready (over) 215 subvariants [url]https://outbreak.info/situation-reports[/url] or https://outbreak.info/situation-reports (from AY.1 to AY.133, also including sub-sub-variants like AY.4.2.3, the AY.4 "group" goes to AY.4.10 ). 

Omicron - in outbreak- only BA.1, BA.2, BA.3 (some others by now using BA.1.1 as a further division). Testing for Omicron may be even harder then testing for Delta...so "cases" may still have a clear definition...

CoViD-deaths also lots of discussion very likely to increase when numbers of flu-CoViD coinfections increase-like they may well do (people by now less protected against the flu, H3N2 may be quite agressive-being active in South America outside their flu-season, it is summer there...) 








One thing that is not getting reported is that with all prior variants, the mean time from diagnosis to death was 20 days. With omi it is longer. At 27 days and maybe even 30 or more days. This blunder was caused by a failure to use cross correlation to assess the lag.

Hospital cases is even more vague...Here in NL you will not get in a hospital very fast...We have the means to provide lots of-even high tech-care at home. Even in severe cases, people often are "allowed" to die at home...In some poor countries they may have "lots of beds in lots of hospitals" (sometimes financed per available bed)...but all those places may be able to offer is that bed...family supposed to take care of the patient...with 1 doctor on 100,000 people admission to hospital only is a switch of location...

Long CoViD can be many things. From the virus still somewhere doing damage in the body to mental trauma after ICU/intubation...both serious. Organ damage needs other care then ME-CFS like issues of wich we still not know that much...And of course a lot of people with Long CoViD will have a mix of problems...Organ damage, getting into depression when there is not enough support and/or income...

There are numbers for cases and deaths, reasonable numbers on hospital cases allthough it means different things in different countries...For Long CoViD there are only estimates...if you take "healthissues after 6 months" most Long CoViD cases still have to show up. Unclear what Omicron (explosion of cases) may bring...but it is allready clear we are talking about "tens of millions" of people with Long CoViD...

It would be interesting to get more info on "Long CoViD" in China, South Africa, Brazil, Iran...do they deny the problem ? Is there less pressure on people with Long CoViD so it becomes less a problem (long paid sick leave, family support may "give another colour" to the problem). 

Because the other side of Long CoViD is what do you see as normal ? Is it reasonable to expect people allways fully recover ? 

-A short look at weekend numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table  with "limited" sunday testing/reporting still 1,941,970 positive CoViD tests-resulting in "a case". Weekly trend still +14%. Global deaths at 3,992, +9%...the coming two weeks will give indications on how deathly Omicron is. 

One could claim not all the variants have the same timeline...it may take longer before people testing positive-with Omicron-die from it...South Africa cases -38%, deaths-still-at +26% may indicate the "28 days after a positive test criterium, used by the UK, Russia a.o. will miss a lot of Omicron deaths. 

Also BA.1 now is the dominant Omicron subvariant, BA.2 may replace it...people catching Omicron several times have been reported. BA.2 has that many differences (I believe 100+ different mutations/deletions etc.) from BA.1 maybe it would be better to talk about Omicron-A and Omicron-B....  

To get a better understanding of this pandemic one also needs to keep an eye on what variants are doing [url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues has two new posts;

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/404[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/404 ; So the growth of AY.127+S:859N is quite consistent as share of AY.127 and overall as share of Delta

DJ-Delta is NOT fully replaced by Omicron ! But testing has run out of capacity, sequencing has been (much to) limited most of this pandemic. We may not have a good view of what Delta is doing. It is very likely co-infections of Delta and Omicron can be found at more places then Cyprus and Italy so far reporting "DeltaCron"...it will result in more severe disease...But also Delta developing, mutating, spreading further...making this pandemic harder. 

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/405[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/405

During the month of December 16 new sequences of B.1.466.2 have been sampled in Jakarta and West Java, clustering each one with different pre-delta Spring-Summer 2021 sequences.
In week 49-50-51 they represents between 1,5% and 2,5% of total sequences in Indonesia.
Obviously is too early to designate but i put them here to enable monitoring of them.

DJ; Will this "local" Indonesia/Jakarta variant "beat" Omicron ? Become a next Variant Of Concern ? There are lots of "limited regional variants of CoViD". Variants so far are related to a lot of people living close together so high spread of a mutated form may see a local variant "get big"...Immunity-most after infection, limited after vaccination-can select for immunity escape. 

Comparing this pandemic with the Spanish FLU (!!!!) pandemic indicates this pandemic is lasting allready longer in "the western world" then the Spanish Flu did. (Depending on definition-some claim H1N1-Spanish Flu started in 1917...). Basic point is people did develop herd/group immunity against that flu then...We may have to forget about herd/group-immunty against CoViD-19 in the present (stage of this) pandemic. 

"Immunity after infection is better than after vaccination" several studies claim-and maybe it could be correct somewhat against being infected with the same (sub)variant...Brazil, Iran (etc) indicate people catching CoViD again after several months-also with "natural immunity after infection". Manaus-Brazil being hit hard twice so far, may face now another round of Omicron/H3N2-flu co-infections...

Vaccines/boosters still offer good protection against severe disease, may offer some protection against Long CoViD...however did not stop the spread...Some studies see vaccinated spreading the same level of virus-after infection as unvaccinated do...only for a shorter time...Spread with no or only mild symptoms is another motor. 

So far children-if infected-most of the times did not get that ill, but also that did change with Omicron...(US now 100 children per month die from CoViD ?).

A last look at numbers for part 1;

Global trend for cases now "sinking to"+14%, deaths up to +9%. 

Europe cases +4%, deaths +2%, UK cases -38%, deaths +41% (last week 1,302, last 7 days 1,834 UK CoViD deaths) UK moving out of the peak-for now (BA.2 however increasing !!!). Germany cases +42%, deaths (still) -15%. Here in NL we had some sort of lockdown, still cinema's and restaurants closed...may have delayed/slowed down the increase of Omicron however cases now +27%, deaths -39%...

North America cases -4%, deaths +11%...US cases -7%, deaths +7%...DJ-I do NOT believe Omicron did peak for all of the US...maybe for some parts, while others may see increases in the coming days...Cuba cases +108% deaths (from 4 to 12, +200% (???)...do they see another Omicron subvariant ? (Outbreak only has TWO sequences from Cuba...so that does not help...)

South America cases +59%, deaths +45%...Brazil cases +109%, deaths +24%...still in early stages of Omicron spread...

Asia cases +76%, deaths +5% maybe even earlier stage then South America is in. India, Philippines (a.o.) high level of BA.2 Omicron...Cases +113%/+111%...Israel cases +89%, deaths +262% (last week 13, last 7 days 47...yesterday Israel reported 14 "new" deaths). Israel did see lots of vaccinations/boosters...most of them in adults with 1/3 of its population under 18 y/o....BA.2 also believed to be increasing...

Africa cases by now -17%, deaths still +9%...Tunesia cases +137%, deaths -11% so Omicron in most of Africa decreasing in new cases-as far as tested...but still increasing in some parts...

Oceania is interesting to see how Australia cases +46%, deaths +179% (from 108 to 301 last 7 days) compares with New Zealand cases -5%...1 death last 7 days, 0 deaths the week before so "deaths +100%"....

End of part 1

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Part 2, a look at "news..Flutrackers most of the time has a lot of "birdflu" most of them H5N1...often in poultry, sometimes detected in wild birds...It is-by now-not unusual to see H5N1 in lots of parts of the globe this time of year. However the level is very high this winter...

I do not select H5N1 news-most of the times even when it is detected in foxes...However H5N1 is a risk...I do select/look for news on co-infections; Omicron+H3N2, "DeltaCron" coinfections-not (yet) a variant of its own...Also indications for new variants, new symptoms may be interesting in my opinion...but there is such an overload of news...

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-were-b-1-640-and-b-1-640-2-outbreaks-in-france-covered-up-because-of-strong-ade-manifestations-b-1-640-now-finally-declared-a-voi[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-were-b-1-640-and-b-1-640-2-outbreaks-in-france-covered-up-because-of-strong-ade-manifestations-b-1-640-now-finally-declared-a-voi ; DJ Was B.1.640.2 covered up because of ADE ? As the (sensationalist ?) article claims ? It is "special" also other news has shown up on B.1.640.2...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/b-1-640/france-b-1-640-declared-a-voi-after-more-than-500-cases-found/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/science/variants/b-1-640/france-b-1-640-declared-a-voi-after-more-than-500-cases-found/Variant B.1.640 is now classified VOI since the risk analysis of 05/01/2022, on the basis of the continuation of its circulation in France and preliminary in vitro data, indicating a decrease in the effectiveness of neutralization by vaccine or post-infection antibodies, and therefore a possible escape from the immune response. The circulation of B.1.640 continues at low levels in mainland France: 0.1% for the Flash S51 survey and 0.2% for the Flash survey S52.









There has been an odd signal in the French PCR genotyping data since they have been back, and I'd be happy to have feedback on what this might be. White small square1/12

DJ Also looking at French statistics often now showing over 300,000 new cases per day-with a lot more restrictions then the UK has and population numbers France/UK not that different...With 0,1-0,2% of that high number of cases do we see 300-600 B.1.640.2 new cases per day in France ????

Thailand Medical News claiming "possible ADE" could explain these very high French numbers....B.1.640.2 not yet in [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variants_of_SARS-CoV-2 . However if ADE would play a role-also B.1.640.2 increase in Germany (with BA.2 Omicron subvariant also increasing) it would even further worsen this pandemic...

I would expect more info on twitter if more was known about B.1.640.2 but Flo Debarre in Paris only can mention "an odd signal"....Maybe alarming in itself...Also Flutrackers not-yet-more info....

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935552-did-omicron-arrive-in-china%E2%80%99s-capital-beijing-by-mail-from-canada[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935552-did-omicron-arrive-in-china%E2%80%99s-capital-beijing-by-mail-from-canada

Did Omicron arrive in China’s capital Beijing by mail from Canada?


https://www.scmp.com/news/china/scie...ng-mail-canada
Did Omicron arrive in China’s capital Beijing by mail from Canada?
  • City’s first case of the Covid-19 variant received a letter from Toronto which had traces of the virus, health authorities say
  • Canada’s public health agency and other experts around the world say there is low risk of spreading through goods or packages
Josephine Ma

Published: 3:19pm, 17 Jan, 2022

Omicron could have entered the Chinese capital Beijing via contaminated mail from Canada, the city’s Centre for Disease Prevention and Control said on Monday.

Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing CDC, said the city’s first Covid-19 patient to be diagnosed with the Omicron variant had received a letter mailed from Canada on January 7.

“We do not rule out the possibility that the person was infected through contacting an object from overseas,” she said.

Chinese authorities have repeatedly said they are finding the coronavirus on contaminated imports, usually frozen goods. Some researchers and health authorities overseas have raised doubts this method of transmission, arguing the virus does not survive long enough on surfaces.
...
The Beijing CDC said residents should minimise their purchases of goods from overseas and wear masks and gloves when opening mail from high risk countries. It recommended letters and packages should be opened outside the home and sanitised.

DJ...Cholera did get into Haïti via mail to Nepal UN peacekeepers from Nepal....If most variants do not survive (99% of the time)  travel via mail some variants-1%-still may survive long enough ? Could UV-C be used for incoming mail at post offices/distribution ? (Maybe even UV-C lamps in mail boxes ??? Could stamps mean virus transport ???) 

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-data-shows-that-unlike-other-sars-cov-2-variants,-peak-of-viral-shedding-is-later-with-omicron[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-japanese-data-shows-that-unlike-other-sars-cov-2-variants,-peak-of-viral-shedding-is-later-with-omicron ; DJ (Since I can not copy from this source) So far most CoViD-variants did see high level of viral spread 2 days before-3 days after start of symptoms. This Japan study may have found Omicron may see most of its viral spreading 2 to 3 days later...so most of the spread starting with/after symptoms...also most of the spread in the 10 days-at average-from a positive test. Limiting isolation, quarantine to "just 5 days" may open the door for even more spread. Also testing missing infection could be explained that way...link to [url]https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/10884-covid19-66-en.html[/url] or https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/10884-covid19-66-en.html ;Here, we examined the duration of infectious virus shedding in Omicron cases identified early in this investigation. A total of 83 respiratory specimens from 21 cases (19 vaccinees and 2 unvaccinated cases; 4 asymptomatic and 17 mild cases) were subjected to SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantification using quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction and virus isolation tests. The date of specimen collection for diagnosis or symptom onset was defined as day 0. The amount of viral RNA was highest on 3-6 days after diagnosis or 3-6 days after symptom onset, and then gradually decreased over time, with a marked decrease after 10 days since diagnosis or symptom onset (Figure). The positive virus isolation results showed a similar trend as the viral RNA amount, and no infectious virus in the respiratory samples was detected after 10 days since diagnosis or symptom onset (Table). These findings suggest that vaccinated Omicron cases are unlikely to shed infectious virus 10 days after diagnosis or symptom onset.

Japan cases +312%, deaths +222% !!!! So it is clear why Japan did this study !

[url]https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-canadian-study-finds-that-for-individuals-over-50,-even-a-mild-sars-cov-2-infection-can-result-in-serious-mobility-issues[/url] or https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-canadian-study-finds-that-for-individuals-over-50,-even-a-mild-sars-cov-2-infection-can-result-in-serious-mobility-issues; DJ Omicron does NOT show itself to be "mild" for older persons or (most unvaccinated) children. Since South African numbers on severe cases, deaths were both delayed and BA.3 in South Africa may indicate (that subvariant of) Omicron may be "slow" in getting people very ill claims of "Omicron being mild" are most based on to early "pseudo science"....This [url]https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787975[/url] or https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2787975 Canadian study looks at outcomes for 50+ y/o over 2020. Still indicating "mild" may not be "mild"for all ages...

[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/infection/some-people-still-infectious-with-covid-after-68-days/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/health/infection/some-people-still-infectious-with-covid-after-68-days/ ; A UK study has found that 13 per cent of people still exhibited clinically-relevant levels of virus after 10 days. Some people retained these levels for up to 68 days. 

-

Professor Lorna Harries, of the University of Exeter Medical School, oversaw the study. She said: “While this is a relatively small study, our results suggest that potentially active virus may sometimes persist beyond a 10 day period, and could pose a potential risk of onward transmission. Furthermore, there was nothing clinically remarkable about these people, which means we wouldn’t be able to predict who they are”.

Exeter.ac.uk report

DJ As I did claim-as a non-expert-earlier it is quite likely the virus may "stay behind/hide" in some infected hosts. Blood testing may give some indications...anal swabs (China used them), stool samples may also tell moore...It should not be that hard to get some cheap-at-home tests being made to test your own "stool/poop"...however one can question what a positive stool-test would mean...You may also look for symptoms...

BA.2 in twitter news;  








Replying to 
Thanks! That's a nice report from South-Africa. BA.2 seems mostly upcoming in Kwazulu-Natal, but it looks like we need some more data for the last few weeks, even from more weeks for Gauteng.


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Replying to 
Also seems to be increasing in South Africa this month. While the samples were fewer in January, BA.2 or 21L increased from 4% to 14% in one month. Source: https://nicd.ac.za/diseases-a-z-index/disease-index-covid-19/sars-cov-2-genomic-surveillance-update/


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Even on the rise in parts of South Africa ! [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482670176189431809/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482670176189431809/photo/1 showing the SA variant timeline...

[url]https://twitter.com/crowther92/status/1482588520623620098/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/crowther92/status/1482588520623620098/photo/1 Omicron 21K=BA.1, 21.L=BA.2 but limited data...(21.M=BA.3)

Also; 








Some very nice graphs made by  . Please look through the thread for other countries as well. I used his tool to make a graph for the Phillipines. Not many samples, but also from travelers to Japan, we know it has almost a 100% BA.2. And a very steep rise in cases!


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See also [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482844799212347397/photo/1[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482844799212347397/photo/1 and [url]https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482844799212347397/photo/2[/url] or https://twitter.com/JosetteSchoenma/status/1482844799212347397/photo/2 When you look at Philipines statistics BA.2 exploded...

See also Cornelius Roemer on twitter....(somehow it does not copy the twitter adres...ending up in lots of unwanted extra's....)

End of part 2

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Conversatihttps://twitter.com/CorneliusRoemeron


Some very nice graphs made by  . Please look through the thread for other countries as well. I used his tool to make a graph for the Phillipines. Not many samples, but also from travelers to Japan, we know it has almost a 100% BA.2. And a very steep rise in cases!


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: Yesterday at 10:38pm

DJ, 

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-expels-diplomats-and-other-staff-from-us-embassy-moscow[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/russia-expels-diplomats-and-other-staff-from-us-embassy-moscow Russia demanding its security is taken serious by "the West"....In a bizarre tunnelvision "the West" keeps ignoring these Russian concerns...even if the global economy can NOT do without Russian energy....

It is the same kind of "crazy thinking" we see in this pandemic. Vaccines do NOT stop spreading the virus-at best they may limit somewhat (the duration of) the spread...Still vaccinated in many countries get a lot of "freedoms/room for spread" while the "pseudo science" claims "Omicron" (just one variant-in that non-science) is "mild" based on to early made conclusions most based on what South Africa statistics may indicate...

South Africa had a lot of BA.1 Omicron...one of the lessons we now learn it "takes it time to do the harm"....Looking with the idea BA.1 would behave-in time- the same as earlier variants is wrong...People may spread Omicron BA.1 for over 10 days-most of the spread starts after symptoms show up...

BA.2 is that different kind of "Omicron" it may be renamed "Pi"...the next Variant Of Concern...VOC...while a lot of "experts" just claimed Omicron would be the end of this pandemic...

Then there is the unwelcome story of [url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/republic-of-congo/czech-republic-b-1-640-family-cluster-identified-in-hradec-kralove-east-bohemia/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/africa/republic-of-congo/czech-republic-b-1-640-family-cluster-identified-in-hradec-kralove-east-bohemia/ with in France B.1.640.2 possibly related with ADE...France also having extreme high number of new cases...DJ-I am-as a non-expert-not yet very convinced of ADE-the virus using the immunity system to get into the host...still B.1.640.2 seems to be sticking around...

BA.2-possibly next VOC "Pi" is detected now around the globe-showing slow increase-against BA.1....Lots of places still detecting Delta sub-variants...often some also increasing. Some limited cases of co-infection of a Delta subvariant with an Omicron subvariant...not yet the "DeltaCron" new recombinated variant...but it may develop further that way...

[url]https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/405[/url] or https://github.com/cov-lineages/pango-designation/issues/405 ; During the month of December 16 new sequences of B.1.466.2 have been sampled in Jakarta and West Java 

-

i put this here just to monitor it, no reason to alarm or worries about it. Usually vocs have been anticipated by a raise in cases then linked to a variant. This is NOT the case.

further discussed...risks for this variant seems to be small...but there must be hundreds of these kind of variants with both testing and sequencing overstretched by far...

-How do "we" react...masks...to many people wearing the same masks-if demanded-for weeks in the wrong way in many places. Masks may be the best we have for protection if we have to "mix"...better use good masks (FFP-2, (N)K-95 etc). Vaccine protection going down-as expected by some scientists...but ignored...[url]https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/israel-fourth-dose-of-vaccine-gives-limited-protection-against-omicron-infection/[/url] or https://www.coronaheadsup.com/coronavirus/israel-fourth-dose-of-vaccine-gives-limited-protection-against-omicron-infection/ ...

The anti-science almost global strategy still going for "herd-immunity" as if CoViD-19 is a kind of flu...The level of anti-science in this pandemic is shocking...

-Flu increasing in birds-lots of H5N1...limited detection in other species so far. An older man in the UK living for his birds did catch H5N1...but now seems to be doing okay...H5N6 may be allready a major problem-most in China, detecting human cases... other countries may simply not test for it...Several countries reporting a mix of CoViD (most likely BA.1) and H3N2-flu coinfections...with limited news on other arbovirusses. 

-Numbers [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table reporting just over 2 million global positive tests for a sunday...(reported yesterday...MLK-day in the US, so US numbers getting in today may also be lower). 

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/weekly-trends/#weekly_table Global cases +12% still-with lots of countries now seeing new cases decreasing. deaths +9%...several countries still see an increase of people dying from "CoViD"...part of the numbers will be Omicron-deaths...but still also Delta-deaths may be high...

In short;

-this pandemic is far from over, several potential new variants of concern VOC around the corner..

-present strategy-or lack of it-making matters even worse

-starting a major war for distraction since most governments fail to be of enough use in this pandemic ?

-"living with the virus" even more ant-science...it is NOT endemic, and CoViD will NOT act like a flu...it is a different "animal"..

-Long CoViD must be in tens of millions of people by now...

-[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/chinas-true-covid-19-death-toll-366-times-higher-official-figure-analyst-says[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/chinas-true-covid-19-death-toll-366-times-higher-official-figure-analyst-says lots of countries not reporting realistic numbers on CoViD, due to lack of testing/reporting but also for political reasons, unreal definitions (dead in 4 weeks after positive test UK, Russia) etc.

Maybe a few "good news" points to end part 1;

-CoViD19 spread into non-human hosts seems to be very limited, and so far maybe even "low risk" (US deer may have a lot of spread-inside the deer population-of a variant close to the Wuhan/wild type...most people may have some form of protection against it...)

-Since there are 4 human-mild-cold coronavirusses, risks for SARS-1 as good as zero, MERS still around but hard to catch, SARS-2/CoViD19 most likely will "go that way" as well...become-at the end-a sort of milder cold...

End of part 1...Try to find time, news, and a will for a part 2...This pandemic going the way climate collapse, Euro-crisis, etc. went...kicking the can down the road politics...no science involved, hope time will solve the problem...and endless empty words...


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 hours 21 minutes ago at 12:12pm

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935797-the-pandemic%E2%80%99s-true-death-toll-millions-more-than-official-counts[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/935797-the-pandemic%E2%80%99s-true-death-toll-millions-more-than-official-counts

The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts


Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00104-8

18 January 2022
The pandemic’s true death toll: millions more than official counts
Countries have reported some five million COVID-19 deaths in two years, but global excess deaths are estimated at double or even quadruple that figure.
David Adam

Last year’s Day of the Dead marked a grim milestone. On 1 November, the global death toll from the COVID-19 pandemic passed 5 million, official data suggested. It has now reached 5.5 million. But that figure is a significant underestimate. Records of excess mortality — a metric that involves comparing all deaths recorded with those expected to occur — show many more people than this have died in the pandemic.

Working out how many more is a complex research challenge. It is not as simple as just counting up each country’s excess mortality figures. Some official data in this regard are flawed, scientists have found. And more than 100 countries do not collect reliable statistics on expected or actual deaths at all, or do not release them in a timely manner.

Demographers, data scientists and public-health experts are striving to narrow the uncertainties for a global estimate of pandemic deaths. These efforts, from both academics and journalists, use methods ranging from satellite images of cemeteries to door-to-door surveys and machine-learning computer models that try to extrapolate global estimates from available data...

DJ The best we may be able to get is good estimates...Maybe later on it would be possible to get more realistic numbers. 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/929118-france-media-moh-reports-8-possible-covid-19-omicron-variant-cases-november-28-2021-1-confirmed-case-in-reunion?view=stream[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/europe-aj/europe-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/929118-france-media-moh-reports-8-possible-covid-19-omicron-variant-cases-november-28-2021-1-confirmed-case-in-reunion?view=stream Trying to see what is happening in France...why such extreme numbers ? 

[url]https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935675-hong-kong-will-cull-thousands-of-hamsters-after-covid-cases-in-a-pet-shop[/url] or https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/china-other-health-threats/china-covid-19-sept-13-2020-may-31-2021/935675-hong-kong-will-cull-thousands-of-hamsters-after-covid-cases-in-a-pet-shop with NL link...hamsters exported from NL ? 

The "new view" on this pandemic politics now comes up with is "it is a new normal" " we have to live with it"...basiccaly "economy first" ...resulting in decrease of testing and MSM reporting..."it is another flu" -  sick....

More tomorrow...



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 1 hour 22 minutes ago at 10:11pm

DJ, 

The "new normal" some criminal insane politicians with their corrupt media and "experts" try to sell in numbers; [url]https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#main_table ;

New cases 3,027,812, +12%. Deaths 8,063 +7% weekly trend..."living with the virus"...."politics/MEP" promoting to "stop testing" because "it is endemic and only mild - we have to save the economy"....Pseudo journalist promoting criminal non-sense in the guardian (of what ?), bbc, (in NL nos, parool...with a history to be proud of-fighting fascists during the war) "BoJo&Co show UK succes" ignoring still high numbers, people limiting contacts, social live for years now...

Of course-even with political, "media"lies-this pandemic is far from over ! Omicron-2/BA.2 increasing, some Delta variants increasing...but US/UK government criminals pushing for war with Russia...after NApoleon, NAzi-scum now NAto has to move east...[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/war-coming-fast-u-s-navy-sorties-22-warships-4-nuclear-subs-in-one-day[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/war-coming-fast-u-s-navy-sorties-22-warships-4-nuclear-subs-in-one-day .

There is NO !!!! public support for yet another war...Even at [url]https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/[/url] or https://community.defconwarningsystem.com/forums/military-events.6/ -very pro-US-they are wondering why to go to war now...for Ukraine ?  It is NATO not sticking to promisses made in around 1990 of "not moving East"...it is US/UK agression...

Russia-Iran-China have many allies...in fact it is an agressive west that is getting isolated...[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4oDncCqN3c[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4oDncCqN3c the German new FM (Foreign Minister) flying to Moscow...DJ-The present US/UK (with some support in Eastern-newer NATO members-Europe) insanity may "blow up" NATO...

Starting a major war-when the pandemic is out of control-is not a coincident. It is the outcome of a failing political new "market-liberalism dogma".  A "political (lack of) thinking" in wich a group of "managers" did increase their own pay for "letting the market do its job"....A totally disgusting "political class" that came up after the end of the Soviet Union in 1991...Destroying everything "public" ...privatizing to destruction countries then going for regime-change wars across the globe even more then before 1990....

This pandemic is the outcome of governments simply not seeing the job they had to do....An insane, criminal, belief "airlines would stop flying" by themselves during a pandemic, governments have "no role" to play....other then creating money out of thin air and "push zillions" into "the market" resulting in starting hyperinflation, extreme income-inequality...now promothing "to live with the pandemic and war with Russia"...

Why tony blair, bush jr. etc are not in prison for war-crimes ? During the "cold war" we "accepted" reagan, thatcher being good friends with trash like pinochet, mass murderer in Chile. Now we have a "new western elite" supporting neo-nazi's in Ukraine, a fascist (he is even proud of it !) bolsenaro in Brazil...A west supporting "IS moderate terrorists" in the Middle East....trying to kill Assad, murdering Saddam Hussein, Kadaffi....not the most nice men-but at least keeping their country somewhat united....But we have to see the 20.000+ saudi royal family claiming to own "their" country, other "pseudo Arab  royals" as "friends and defenders of democracy".....Have to accept a new "debt based" labor market in the west...working poor as a new normal...no problem if they get ill....for a criminal elite...

A look at some countries/regions "living with the virus"; 

South Africa, cases still -40%, BA.2 Omicron increasing-starting another wave...BA.1 Omicron offering no protection against BA.2....deaths +30% because dying from BA.1 does take longer...the "it is mild claim" based on looking at data for to short of time...

India cases +74%, deaths +22% (also) limited testing, hardly any sequencing but BA.2 dominant in some regions...

Philippines interesting, cases (BA.2 most Manilla region as far as sequencing goes) +48%, deaths -50%...still early stage of spread ? 

Israel cases +21%, deaths +267% (from 12 to 44...boosters have their limits...) 

US cases -7%, deaths -3%, UK cases -39%, deaths +14%...or did these countries "decrease testing" because we have to live with it....They did claim China could have over 1 million CoViD deaths in their propaganda...[url]https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-covid-19-death-rate-by-17000-percent-economist-says_4211606.html[/url] or https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-underreporting-covid-19-death-rate-by-17000-percent-economist-says_4211606.html ...DJ- I do not think China is giving realistic numbers for both cases and deaths...China does violate basic human rights in its fight against CoViD...but "let CoviD do its thing" most likely is even worse....

The "war" between the US/Uk and most of the rest of the world is hindering a realistic view on Russian, Chinese, Cuba-Iran vaccines, treatments...Russia and China now dominant on the global market for vaccines, pharma (India fighting its own battle-needing their pharma-industry for domestic needs). 

You need an economy to have healthcare....however the present lack of any strategy or realism in most of the west is making this pandemic worse-not better. 

On twitter I notice a "growing silence" (mixed with disbelief) that "UK having 1,904 deaths last 7 days, 1,668 the week before" represents a "new normal we have to live with"....thousends of Long CoViD-cases per day "no problem" for B0J0&Co....children ending up in hospital is "okay"....shocking and insane....

The outcome of the "it is only mild-we have to live with it" campain [url]https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/19/40-parents-wont-get-child-vaccinated-covid[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2022/01/19/40-parents-wont-get-child-vaccinated-covid is a drop in people willing to get (their children) vaccinated, going for boosters or testing....Since politics again chooses to ignore science (like a.o. in the climate collapse dossier) we may end up with an "endemic" out of control but denied by a lot of (western) governments.....

DJ-I am almost writing scenario's for two years now. I did expect a "worst case scenario" could increase "risks of global conflict"  also back then...But I did NOT expect denialism as new way of (not) dealing with this pandemic....For that matter "new politics" went beyond my imagination....but it fits in with how "politics" does NOT deal with climate "change/collapse" ...short term gain, "saving the economy-getting a few people very rich" is "worth sacrificing the globe" on the long run....

The US economy is dependent on the US$ being linked with global energy trade (it is paid for in US$...China used to pay Russia for oil and gas in US$...not any longer...). Ending the US-petro-$ could turn the US into a "Brazil like economy" with a big army....(and Google, Apple, Facebook major economic players maybe next to "outsource" their activities to EurAsia with 5 of the allmost 8 billion people living there...). 

The US overplayed and overstretched itself....could not win wars in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan...now willing to self-destruct in a war with Russia-that will find China on its side....A US republican government would go for war with China, biden now starting a war with Russia....running out of major allies....learning the hard way US has to start talking and stop fighting...because at the end the US is fighting itself...

End of an angry part 1....

work in progres


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