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School Closures (May Cut Infection Rate By 40%)

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    Posted: July 20 2009 at 8:37am
School Closures May Help Limit Swine Flu Damage, Study Finds
 

By Naomi Kresge

July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Closing schools during a severe flu pandemic may cut infection rates as much as 40 percent at the peak of the outbreak because of children’s role in spreading the disease, U.K. researchers said.

School closures might be even more effective against swine flu than against seasonal flu, according to a study published today in The Lancet. The research weighed the pros and cons of such a move and stopped short of endorsing it.

“The H1N1 pandemic could become more severe, and the current cautious approach of not necessarily recommending school closure in Europe and North America might need reappraisal in the autumn,” the Imperial College London researchers wrote.

Governments worldwide are battling the virus, which has taken root across the globe faster than any previous flu pandemic, according to the World Health Organization. Britain’s chief medical officer last week said the National Health Service is bracing for as many as 65,000 deaths from the disease.

“Children are thought to be important vectors of transmission, more infectious and susceptible to most influenza strains than adults, and high contact rates in schools favor transmission,” wrote Simon Cauchemez and Neil Ferguson from the college’s department of infectious disease epidemiology.

Impact on Economy

So far, 60 percent of the world’s reported 39,620 swine flu cases occurred in those aged 18 or younger, according to the study. The researchers used data from intentional or coincidental school closures during past influenza outbreaks, including a study of French school holidays over a 21-year period that found school holidays prevented one in six flu cases and a study of U.S. cities during the 1918 pandemic.

Cauchemez, Ferguson and their colleagues also weighed the social and economic impact of closing schools. A 12-week closure could cost as much as 6 percent of the U.S. gross domestic product and up to 1 percent of U.K. GDP, the study said, and could disproportionately affect poor families.

“In a severe pandemic, countries might be ready to pay those high social and economic costs,” they wrote.

The research will be published in the August edition of the Lancet Infectious Diseases, which focuses on flu.

Swine flu has killed 29 people so far in the U.K., health officials said last week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Naomi Kresge in Zurich at nkresge@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 20, 2009 09:48 EDT
 
 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Close schools to stem flu - experts

 
Published Date: 21 July 2009
Ministers have been asked to consider closing schools this autumn to help curb the number of swine flu infections.
Amid predictions that the number of cases will soar as the school holidays come to an end, two infection experts have argued that a school closure programme could "break the chains of transmission" and buy time to produce a vaccine.

Professor Neil Ferguson and Dr Simon Cauchemez, from the department of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London, also cited studies showing that closing schools at the height of a flu pandemic could cut the number of cases by up to 45%.

"The pandemic could become more severe, and so the current cautious approach of not necessarily recommending school closure in Europe and North America might need reappraisal in the autumn," they said in the paper, published in the leading medical journal The Lancet.

The scientists quoted a recent French study which suggested that "proactively" closing schools could reduce flu cases by 13% to 17% overall, and by between 38% and 45% during the outbreak's peak.

The report said as children appeared to be more susceptible to the current bug than adults, there could be "strong arguments" for ministers to revisit their policy on school closures.

"It is... hoped that closure of schools during the pandemic might break the chains of transmission, with the following potential benefits: reducing the total number of cases; slowing the epidemic to give more time for vaccine production; and reducing the incidence of cases at the peak of the epidemic, limiting both the stress on healthcare systems and peak absenteeism in the general population, and thus increasing community-wide resilience," the researchers said.

Schools Secretary Ed Balls told The Guardian that there was "no longer" a case for closing schools to contain the infection's spread as the virus was already established in the community.

But he added: "We will be monitoring the situation closely over the school holidays and will review the evidence in late August."

On Monday, Health Secretary Andy Burnham sought to reassure pregnant women over swine flu amid criticism of the Government's handling of the issue, saying mothers-to-be do have a higher possibility of complications so should wash their hands frequently with soap and water and avoid contact with people who have swine flu.
 

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2009 at 8:12pm
 
 
 
 
 
It will be interesting to see the differences.... if England closes schools and the US does
 
not.... I'm thinking they will open schools in the fall.  It would be very disruptive to close
 
them.... is their thinking.
 
One reason we will see lower death rates for these later Influenza pandemics....
 
Better HealthCare and living conditions.
 
... guess... where this  street scene is?
 
File:Mulberry%20Street%20NYC%20c1900%20LOC%203g04637u.jpg
 
 
 
 
 
 
.................
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2009 at 8:27pm
Mary008
 
This seems like a no-brainer to me. The only sure way we know in stopping or atleast slowing the spread of influenza is to practice social distancing. Why in the world would we send our children into full classrooms, lunch areas, buses, ect.  The school my daughter gos to has over a thousand children.  Go there during lunch time and you get the drft
 
For a Virus I bet this looks like an all you can eat buffet. 
 
Now add the recent factual data showing the younger poplation vulnerbility to infection, severity of infections, and deaths.
 
This seems like  common sense
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2009 at 9:01pm
 
I agree with you.  But   :(    very hard to stay away from others.   we are social animals.
 
It takes about 3 waves...  seering through populations at 3-4 month intervals, for the
 
virus to burn itself down to something less infective.  Rather a long time to hide out.
 
The seasonal vaccine .... is not all that protective.  they didn't have vaccine in 1918 and
 
about 98% of the people lived.   The virus changes too fast to give immunity for very long
 
Good grief.... they would have to vaccinate everyone every 3-4 months with a new strain
 
to TRY to keep up with it.... not possible.
 
People should get a vaccine if they are terrified.... stress is as bad for them.  Everyone has
 
to decide.  I think we have had the mild version... yuk.   perhaps if we can keep out of
 
crowds in the winter we will take 5,000 IU of vit D3 every day and hope if we get a third
 
wave flu it will be a weaker version.    I have 5 littles under 5 yrs in my extened family...
 
so I am ....a little worried too.   I pray they don't put mercury in the swine vaccine.
 
I think I will be sending vitamins :)
 
 
.....
 
 
 ANSWER
 
Mulberry Street NYC c1900
...........................................
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2009 at 9:21pm
found this over in General Discussion
 
 
VIDEO
 
   
The Vaccine Nation Documentary Film Trailer
Sneak Preview Gary Null's New Controversial
Documentary Film, "Vaccine Nation"
 
 
If you want a vaccination I think they will be available perhaps by beginning of November.
 
 
If you do not want it.... be polite....ask to sign a religious exemption waiver form.
.....................................................................................................................................
or just home school your children.... or wait til they are a bit older to vaccinate them....talk
 
to your Doctor about that.... waiting a bit....many will agree....on certain vaccines....ask
 
their opinion.
 
...........................................................................................................................
 
All compulsory laws concerning vaccination (including the military) contain exceptions and
 
waivers. It is these protections placed in the laws that you may legally use to exclude
 
yourself and your children. Surprisingly, these exceptions were placed there, not for your
 
sake (although you may take advantage of them), but for the protection of the
 
establishment.

How is this? Let us assume that these exceptions were not there and everyone was actually forced to

be immunized. Should a child die or become mentally or physically disabled, the parent would have the
 
perfect case to sue the doctor, the school, the health department, and even the state legislature for
 
enormous damages.

Since they allowed no exceptions, they must accept full responsibility for all the adverse

consequences of the law.

However, if exception waivers are placed in the law, the responsibility is then transferred back to the

parent. If a child should be injured by immunization, the officials can say, "Well, the parent should have
 
exempted him if they thought there was any danger."

Therefore, there is in truth no such thing as a compulsory vaccination law in this country.

source
 
 
 
.....................
 
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2009 at 9:58pm

 

Is thimerosal still in the vaccines that children receive?

Thimerosal is a compound that is 49.6% mercury by weight

Currently, all pediatric vaccines in the routine infant immunization schedule are manufactured without thimerosal as a preservative. As of January 14, 2003, the final lots of vaccines containing thimerosal as a preservative expired.

Other vaccines for example, influenza vaccine; tetanus and diphtheria vaccine for older children and adults continue to be manufactured with thimerosal as a preservative although influenza vaccine without thimerosal preservative is also available.

_________________________________________________________
 
Yes I know it sounds daunting, but fact of the matter is there just arent a lot of great choices, so common sense says take the only route you know has an impact. Wil there be holes and will some go out seeking activities with others I would assume so. I guess that would fall under how educated the particular people are or arent (Swine Flu Parties).
 
I work in a school, and have thought about what could or could not be done at the school level with so many individuals all sharing the same facilities. Where I work not only do we have many sharing resources but we also being in three different groups throughout each day (Morn, AFT, EVE). Logistically, well you get the idea, to a virus this would be the equivelent of a watering whole of life.
 
I have gone through some serious health issues with my daughter in the last 1 1/2 and her school has been totally cooperative with online assignment collection and submission tools and contact with teacher via web if desired. This was invaluable when she had sto stay home for more than a week at a time.
 
To me it just makes sense to do everything possible to limit the effects on the children. Common Sense
 
Just my opinion of course
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 20 2009 at 10:00pm
Mercury in any form should be banned from use in vaccines especially since there are other viable  methods already in use.
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lastoneturnouttheli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 1:27am
The Bloomberg piece is sloppy reporting.  It says might prevent "one in six" cases but it ought to read that it might reduce incidence from one in three to one in six.  A big difference.  And the 6% hit on GDP is nonsense.  The reality is that school closings might knock .6% (point six percent) off GDP.  That kind of hit - one tenth what Bloomberg asserts - is huge and would send the US economy spinning, so we better hope it aint so, but 6% is around six times the current recession impact so is obviously wrong.  That being said, a worse economic toll can be expected if we don't close schools as pandemic rolls through, since everyone staying home is a lot cheaper than keeping schools open pointlessly since too many won't send their kids in and the resulting sick rate will overwhelm every aspect of the health system.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lastoneturnouttheli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 8:00am
I've been corresponding this morning with the reporter at Bloomberg who penned the piece, and she sent me to her sources that have the 6% figure, so that is what the quoted study claims and my supposition that it is .6% was wrong  However, the figure is based on an abstract model and the same study quotes other studies of actual experience that indicate a 10% absenteeism among the poorest resulting from closings because better-heeled folks find in-home daycare (babysitters).  The 6% figure assumes 40-100% absenteeism across the population, a stark contrast with the economic impact of 10% among the poorest.  I believe that this pandemic will roll down hill hard and a little higher mortality will mean that all bets are off.  Not closing schools when pandemic arrives in your town because of fears of decimating economic tolls would be a terrible mistake in every way.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 9:38am
Some interesting points you make....  I wonder how people will handle this?  The Govt/ Media gloomed and doomed this for a while.  People's reactions will be so different.  As you say ...Wealthy will continue to work and find someone to care for ill child.  I can remember  a working mom (nurse) asking my mom... to care for her ill child while she worked.  My mom never did that sort of thing ... but was known for her healthy kids and caring nature... when my brother's entire sports team had meningitis, our Doc told her to keep my brother at home and care for him.  Then he nixed the one big water bottle deal at the games... they would squeeze it into their mouths... dumb.  I read some writings from the 1600's where it told of a lady who's babies kept dying.... so the father took the next baby and gave it over to family to care for for a few yrs, it lived.  Seems the wife was too weak to care for the child.  
 
 
 
In the old days an older family member would go check on the new mother and child.  My mom did that for me.  Meals ... laundry.. bathing baby... and  in our county, the nurse visits every new mother to see how they are getting on.  County nurses are so important.  You can have a county nure look in  on people after an operation...to check their vital signs ...wound....nutrition....very valuable.  I wonder what their game plan is for this pandemic.  I think I will call and ask...  do all states have these county nurses?
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 10:28am
Finally  figured it out
 
Mullberry street Manhatten  NY
 
 that is a really good picture (Resolution) enhanced maybe
 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 11:11am
:)     yes.... they seem to think it was hand painted., most likely.    People lived in very crowed conditions... with horses.. :/   .... all over the place.  children looking after children.  I have one family member.. sis of a very great gram died in the pandemic NYC..very .pretty.  I am going to submit the info and photos to the website on rememberances of the 1918 pandemic.  I also have a photo of her young daughter in a photo of girls in their red cross uniforms.  a group of about 12 girls...look like preteen age.
The photo of her daughter was taken near Syracuse NY in 1919... she was then a ward of her mothers sister's family.
 
here are some examples of other kids in Junior Red Cross Uniforms....
 
 
 

Nannie & Caroline
North Carolina, 1918
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 12:01pm
Neat pics
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hotair Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 1:35pm
They will only close the schools when kids start dropping like flies.The districts get paid per head.They have even made rules that your child can be out only so many times for Dr. appt and the like.It is and always will be about money.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Suzi1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 2:04pm
During the Spanish Flu the Health Officials were afraid to publish the fact that infection rates had gone down for fear people would ease up on social distancing and make them go back up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 5:50pm
Hotair
 
I sure hope they do not wait that long (Dropping Like Flies)
 
I guess it would depend on the truancy laws in the state you reside as far as rulles.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 9:27pm
I work in a school and YES they will have to drop like flies before they call school off. Most likely they will only do it school by school not the whole distric.

I for one will have a hard time to decide when I need to SIP, I have a teen in HS and I work in a school. Might lose my job but better than my childs life or my life.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2009 at 10:46pm
I feel if they send kids back, there will be quite a lot of illness by the end of September.
It is so cold here.  Nights are very cool and we have not needed AC this summer....very odd.  Damp...rains every few days.  Older folks here have had no flu...so far kids had it milder than parents.  wondering about the fall in NY.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote coyote Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2009 at 3:51am
Hi Mary. Yes strange summer it is, seems like we are in the month of sept! Our pool water has only reached the high of 78.. Still alway's lurking here, no time to post much any more.My best Coyote
Long time lurker since day one to Member.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dennis2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2009 at 6:09am

I wonder about the legal results if a school remained open and "forced kids" into a situation of obvious health risks.  I would think that the school would be in greater legal danger of not closing than closing. It would not take many million dollar suits against a school for child endangerment to get their attention.  If a school can be sued for peanut butter exposure then it seems that they could be sued for possible lethal exposure to a known viral killer.

after all is said and done- more is said than done
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2009 at 8:43pm
I am surprised to hear the colder than normal weather. Here it has been either near record or record breaking Temps for a Week or so (!05 to 115). I talked to sister in Michigan today and she said same thing, has been cold like fall weather.
 
Here is a blast from the past on the subject (2007 Data From 2006). This would have been during H5N1 Bird Flu Planning.
__________________________________________________________________________
 

Pandemic Influenza School Closure Policies

Laura H. Kahn* Comments%20to%20Author
*Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA

Suggested citation for this article

To the Editor: Holmberg et al. (1) are rightly concerned that state pandemic plans in the United States represent a patchwork without central coordination or direction. These concerns are particularly relevant for school closure decisions during an influenza pandemic. The US Department of Health and Human Services' checklist regarding school closures gives conflicting messages (2). For example, it recommends that schools stay open during a pandemic and develop school-based surveillance systems for absenteeism of students and sick-leave policies for staff and students. It also recommends developing alternate procedures to ensure the continuity of instruction in the event of district-wide school closures. These vague recommendations may reflect the paucity of data to recommend school closure.

To assess the current status of school closure decisions in the United States, I conducted an internet survey of all 50 state health commissioners during the spring of 2006. I asked the respondents 2 questions: "Who makes the school closure decisions in your state?" and "What absenteeism rate, if any, would prompt a school in your state to close during a typical influenza year and/or during a pandemic influenza year?" Of the 44 responding states, I found that school closure decisions were primarily a local-level responsibility in half. Of these 22 states, closure decisions would be made either on a school-by-school or a school district–by–school district basis. Only 6 states indicated that school closure decisions would be made at the state level, and 16 states would have decisions made jointly at the state and local levels (Table).

For a typical influenza season, only 6 states indicated that they close schools if a certain absenteeism rate due to illness were reached. For 5 of these states, the absenteeism rates ranged from 10% to 30%; the sixth state said its schools would close if the rates were anywhere from 7% to 31%. However, only 1 state reported a threshold absenteeism rate for closure during an influenza pandemic. Another state said that it was developing an absenteeism rate that would prompt closure for pandemic influenza. Forty-two states did not have threshold absenteeism rates that would prompt school closures during an influenza pandemic.

In July 2006, the Department for Education and Skills in the United Kingdom published guidelines regarding school closure (D. O'Gorman, pers. comm.). Although the final decision for school closure would lie with local school officials, the national government might advise all schools and childcare facilities to close when a pandemic reached their area to reduce the spread of infection among children (3). It is believed that all would comply with closure advice and that use of emergency powers under the UK Civil Contingency Act 2004 to require services to close would not be necessary. If all British schools in an area were advised to close during a pandemic, the situation would be reviewed after a period of time, such as 2 to 3 weeks, by local officials acting on information from the UK government, to decide whether to remain closed.

Although the United States is a nation dedicated to federalism, an uncoordinated approach for community response measures such as school closure decisions could jeopardize our efforts in containing a deadly pandemic. If schools were to remain open until a certain percentage of students and faculty became ill, as they do during typical influenza seasons, then control measures to contain the outbreaks would likely be far more difficult to achieve because a chain of transmission would be established. Some might consider it unethical for schools to stay open in the face of a pandemic with a high death rate. I therefore think a national policy, or at least specific national guidelines, should be developed jointly by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Education, so that states' school districts can develop rational, coherent, and coordinated closure plans to protect children and communities during an influenza pandemic.

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 8:45am
In NY state... the State Health Dept. or Gov. can close the schools... even the parents can close the schools if we think about it...keeping their children home if they hear 5 kids in the class are out... so 5 or 10 more parents keep their kids at home.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 6:57pm
Global health officials mull how to slow swine flu
 
By FRANK JORDANS
 
GENEVA - Some Muslim countries are advising pregnant women not to attend the hajj pilgrimage. China is quarantining any visitor suspected of having a fever, while priests in New Zealand have been banned from placing Communion wafers on worshippers' tongues.

It's all part of a global effort to slow the spread of swine flu until a vaccine is ready, although experts are divided on whether the measures will work.

< =1.1 ="http://bannerads.zwire.com/bannerads/bannerad.asp?ADLOCATION=4000&PAG=461&BRD=1817&LOCALPCT=100&AREA=475&VERT=2834&NAREA=470&AT=JS&barnd=4646">
Students across Europe may have their summer vacations extended after the World Health Organization said Tuesday that closing schools was one option countries could consider.

Deaths from the H1N1 virus have doubled in the past three weeks, to over 700 from about 330 at the start of July, the agency said.

"We expect to see more cases and deaths in the future," WHO spokeswoman Aphaluck Bhatiasevi told The Associated Press in Geneva.

The agency gave no breakdown, but as of last week, the United States had reported 263 deaths, Canada had 45 and Britain had 29. According to WHO's last update on July 6, there were 119 deaths in Mexico.

Yet even the latest figures may seriously underestimate the true toll because not all swine flu cases are being picked up due to testing limitations.

The race is now on to develop a vaccine that is effective against the pandemic strain before the flu season begins this fall in the northern hemisphere. Estimates for when a vaccine will be available range from September to December.

In the meantime, the U.N. health agency is working with its national counterparts around the world to examine what countries can do.

"School closures is one of the mitigation measures that could be considered by countries," Bhatiasevi told reporters.

Experts have argued that school closures may be among the most effective measures, but warn there may be a considerable economic downside, too.

Religious leaders have been drawn into the debate after authorities in Jordan and health officials at a conference in Saudi Arabia recommended that people thought to be most at risk, including pregnant women and those with chronic diseases, skip the hajj pilgrimage this year.

Arab health ministers are holding an emergency meeting Wednesday in Cairo to come up with a unified plan to confront the pandemic.

In New Zealand, the Roman Catholic Church imposed a ban on priests placing Communion wafers on the tongues of worshippers and on the sharing of Communion wine. It also asked parishioners to avoid bodily contact at services, including shaking hands.

In Chile, where 40 people have died from swine flu, authorities canceled a popular religious festival that normally draws tens of thousands of worshippers to the northern town of La Tirana, prompting protests from the faithful.

"The key question is whether citizens will accept the measures governments impose," said Christian Drosten, head of the Institute for Virology at the University of Bonn in Germany.

"You need to get the population on board, otherwise your efforts won't work," he said. "Once people take the disease seriously, you'll begin to see the kind of social distancing that limits infection."

"But it's all a question of culture," Drosten added. "What works in Europe may not work in other countries, and vice versa."

In Switzerland, supermarket chains are considering requiring customers to disinfect their hands and put on a face mask as they enter the store.

"We can put these measures in place as quickly we get food into the stores," said Urs Peter Naef, a spokesman for the Migros chain, Switzerland's biggest.

China's practice of forcibly quarantining visitors has caused bewilderment elsewhere, particularly when hundreds of American, British and other foreign students have been sealed off in hotels for days on just the suspicion of infection.

Chinese officials in masks or hazmat suits board planes, pointing temperature guns at passengers' foreheads. If a passenger is diagnosed with swine flu, anyone seated within three rows is often tracked down. Those quarantined get to leave if they are healthy seven days from the date they landed.

In Britain, health officials' advice that women put off planning to have children due to the global outbreak was met with ridicule since the swine flu pandemic may last years.

One measure comes up again and again - school closures - but it has its own risks.

A paper published Tuesday in the medical journal The Lancet argues that closing schools can help break the chain of transmission, slowing the pace of the disease and lessening the burden on health care systems.

But the paper, written by researchers at London's Imperial College, also noted the considerable economic costs as parents are forced to stay home to look after their children.

France's Education Ministry has already prepared nearly 300 hours of educational programming for radio and television to allow those affected by school closures to follow their lessons, the Le Parisien daily reported.

The experience of school closures in the United States during the early days of the epidemic may prove to be a guide for how best to handle outbreaks in an educational setting.

Initially, authorities recommended schools close for two weeks if there was a suspected case, but when the virus turned out to be milder than feared they switched to advising parents to keep only sick students home. Schools could still close if there were a large number of student and staff out sick - the same guidance for schools contending with an outbreak of seasonal flu.

"We have some general philosophies and principles that the best place for healthy kids is in school, where they can learn ... and where many of them get breakfast and lunch and can be nourished as well," Dr. Anne Schu****** of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said last week.

Apart from school closures, a team of WHO experts is also examining other measures including postponing mass gatherings, such as sports events and concerts, Bhatiasevi said. That could prove very unpopular since football and Major League Baseball, as well as world soccer teams all have heavy fall schedules.

Ultimately, the responsibility to decide what to do to keep the pandemic under control rests with individual governments, Bhatiasevi said.

"Different countries could be facing a pandemic at different levels at different times. It is really up to countries to consider what mitigation efforts suit them."
 
 
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Older but relevent study of 1918 pandemic concerning social restrictions like closing schools.
 
___________________________________________________________

Banning public gatherings could save lives in pandemic: study

04-03-2007, 15h47
CHICAGO (AFP)

Shutting down subways and schools, and banning weddings and other gatherings could be the key to damage control in the event of a communicable disease

pandemic, two new research studies conclude.

Scientists with their eye on the possible outbreak of a bird-flu epidemic found from studying past practice that by intervening early and aggressively to restrict the public's freedom of movement, they may be able to curb the transmission of a virus in the early phase of an epidemic and buy time for investigators to come up with a vaccine.

The findings come from two analyses of US cities in the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic that killed 600,000 people in the United States and tens of millions around the world.

The study could provide important lessons for agencies tasked with planning for the next global pandemic.

In 1918, many US cities sought to contain the epidemic by closing schools, theatres, churches and dance halls. Kansas City banned weddings and funerals involving more than 20 people while San Francisco and Seattle ordered their citizens to wear face masks.

But researchers have always puzzled over why the early death toll varied so much between cities which used the same tactics.

Going back over the data, US researchers found that in cities where officials responded to the epidemic early and with numerous bans on social or other gatherings, the peak weekly death rate was about 50 percent lower than it was in cities that responded more slowly.

In St. Louis, the peak mortality rate was one-eighth that of Philadelphia, the worst hit city of all the 17 metropolises included in the survey.

Officials in St. Louis moved with broad public health measures within two days of the first reported influenza cases, while their counterparts in Philadelphia waited two weeks to act.

Most metropolises relaxed the measures after two to eight weeks, in part because of pressure from businesses and tradesmen, according to Richard Hatchett of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and an author of one of the papers.

As a result, some cities experienced a second peak in mortality, presumably because the first wave was stopped so effectively that once controls were lifted, a substantial number of individuals who had not developed immunity fell ill.

In San Francisco and St. Louis, the controls were imposed early and maintained through January 1919, reducing deaths by an estimated 25 percent, according to researchers at Imperial College, London, and the University of Utrecht.

"Our results show that non-pharmaceutical interventions may substantially slow the spread of a pandemic," said Neil Ferguson, a researcher at Imperial College London, who led the European research team.

"However, if we want these measures to save substantial numbers of lives, they really need to be kept in place until we have enough vaccine to immunize the population."

But he cautioned that there would be "huge social and economic consequences of imposing such measures for the three or more months that would be required for optimal effect."

The World Health Organisation has been bracing for another global influenza pandemic since bird flu first surfaced in Asia in 2004. To date, it has infected 288 people, killing 170, but scientists fear that the H5N1 bird flu strain could mutate into a form more easily spread among humans, leading to a global pandemic with the potential to kill millions.

US authorities have already incorporated many of the lessons of 1918 into planning, drawing up guidelines for closing schools, canceling public gatherings, teleworking strategies and voluntary isolation of cases.

But as one infectious disease specialist noted, much will depend on the political will to make unpopular decisions that could cost the economy a bundle.

"There are good arguments for closing the borders," said John Bartlett, an infectious disease expert at the John Hopkins School of Medicine.

"There are good arguments for closing the New York subway. You don't get much closer to other human beings than you do on the subway, but that would prevent millions of people from going to work, including hospital workers," he said.

"And if you close the schools, how do you prevent the kids from just regrouping at the mall? Maybe you send the parents home from work too so they can keep an eye on the kids. Well, that has an impact on businesses."

"It sounds simple, but it's not simple. It's not easy."

The two studies were funded by the National Institutes of Health

, the UK Medical Council and the European Union and appear in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
 
 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 9:00pm
Good news in Colorado. We have school over the internet now. So if we SIP my teen will continue in school.

I just hope none of this is necessary. Maybe we will skip this and get hit by a meteor! LOL!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 9:22pm
We too hvae not used AC. We are in Northeast ohio just west of Erie PA and near Lake Erie. Rain, rain and more rain and cool summer. We have trees on our property changing colors already! Kids swam in our pool a total of 2 times. It's been tooooo cold to swim.
It's been a bit like this the last 3 years I think. I heard or read that the northeast is in some type of cycle and is going to last about 10 years they says.:O(
Melody
 
Originally posted by Mary008 Mary008 wrote:

I feel if they send kids back, there will be quite a lot of illness by the end of September.
It is so cold here.  Nights are very cool and we have not needed AC this summer....very odd.  Damp...rains every few days.  Older folks here have had no flu...so far kids had it milder than parents.  wondering about the fall in NY.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 9:24pm
Flumom, is this something new that every school in your state has available if schools close? Did they do it for the flu or just for in "general" like for snow days and such?
Melody
 
Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Good news in Colorado. We have school over the internet now. So if we SIP my teen will continue in school.

I just hope none of this is necessary. Maybe we will skip this and get hit by a meteor! LOL!
Melody
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 9:42pm
Good news in Colorado. We have school over the internet now.
...............................................................
.
California has it also...free of charge.  Is it free in CO?
 
Is it the wave of the future... though they have had it for a while.
 
 
(Melody.... do you have vitamins?  like D3... they say is good to ward off flu, 5,000 IU daily
I heard)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 9:56pm
Mary08, I have to take Vitamin D3 because I have Vitamin D deficiency along with fibromyalgia. I'm on 50,000 a week prescription.
I have to get blood test every 3 months until we get me in normal range.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 10:18pm
good to know...  I thought it was a stiff dose like that.  I will be taking it.  Do you happen to sell it?  I prefer vegitarian... found it in gel.. cow hoof?  i need veg caps... well I like them anyway.  Where have ya been?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 10:28pm
I don't directly sell it but I do have it available on my mall...via Vitacost. I do get a bit of credit for any purchase made on my mall. Go to http://www.mypowermall.com/Mall/74906 Then click on "go shopping" link then jump to  store "vitacost".
If you do a Vitamin D3 search you can find all that is available up to 4,000 Ius per pill. I have to get mine prescription via Clevelan Clinic. They make their own because I can't get D3 at that high of a dose anywhere so the hospital started making their own for people who are deficient
Oh I dont' want to get into trouble for advertising so penham please delete or I can delete if this is inappropriate to post here..
Melody
Originally posted by Mary008 Mary008 wrote:

good to know...  I thought it was a stiff dose like that.  I will be taking it.  Do you happen to sell it?  I prefer vegitarian... found it in gel.. cow hoof?  i need veg caps... well I like them anyway.  Where have ya been?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 23 2009 at 10:37pm
Oh Mary08 by the way I've been on swine flu daily lol:O)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2009 at 9:36am
Flumom
Maybe we will skip this and get hit by a meteor!
LOL I was thinking same thing after watching the movie KNOWING last night
 
Whole plantet gets toasted
 
Jees
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2009 at 9:48am
Mary008
 
Where did you get the 5000iu a day on Vitamin D3?? There is conflicting information on Vitamin D dosaging on the net.
 
I use a product from Costco called (Wellesse Vitamin D3). It has 1000 iu per 2 teaspoons and tastes good. Liquid is supposed to be more easily absorbed by the digestive system, not sure exactly how valid that is but it makes sense.
 
Are there any risks in taking Vitamin D in higher dosage forms, again conflicting info on the net.
 
Opinion?
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2009 at 10:47am
I know quite a bit about Vitamin D3 because when I was fount out I was deficient I read every article there was to read lol:O) Doctors seem not to know what the proper dosage would be for the regular public. I was deficient so they are taking my bloodwork every 3 months until they find the right dosage...I was low so it is why I'm so high. You can overdose on Vitamin D3. It is NOT a vitamin but rather a parahormone. When it was first discovered by this dr(can't remember his name) he called it a vitamin but it is not. It can be dangerous to take too much. The further north you are and the less sun you get the more likely your levels are low. You can not get enough just in food. It is not naturally occuring in most foods and the foods that it is added to like in milk is not enough. I'm not a dr. but from the dr.'s who have written articles it seems to be safe to tak 1000-2000 ius a day. I'm not so sure about much more without bloodwork. You can google Vitamin D defiiency and read tons of articles on the subject.
If you are deficient it can cause LOTS of health problems. They are finding folks with MS, arthritis, fibromyalgia and others are usually deficient in Vitamin D. If any of you have dr. appts for any reason or even if you don't I'd ask to have your levels checked. It is a blood sample and it takes about 10 days to get results.
Melody
 
Originally posted by Mahshadin Mahshadin wrote:

Mary008
 
Where did you get the 5000iu a day on Vitamin D3?? There is conflicting information on Vitamin D dosaging on the net.
 
I use a product from Costco called (Wellesse Vitamin D3). It has 1000 iu per 2 teaspoons and tastes good. Liquid is supposed to be more easily absorbed by the digestive system, not sure exactly how valid that is but it makes sense.
 
Are there any risks in taking Vitamin D in higher dosage forms, again conflicting info on the net.
 
Opinion?
 
 
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.
 
 
                                                                       Rays_spin.gif%20-%20%2810K%29
 
 
Vitamin D3
....................
 
...research indicates a necessity to supplement with at least 5,000 units (IU) of vitamin D

daily. To obtain this amount from milk one would need to consume 50 glasses. With a

multivitamin more than 10 tablets would be necessary.

 
Very Good read here-
 

.........................................................................................................................................
 
 
 
To achieve all of vitamin D's benefits
...................................................................

one has to take an amount ten times the government's RDA -   4,000 to 5,000 IU a day.

A light-skinned person will synthesize 20,000 IU of vitamin D in 20 minutes sunbathing

on a tropical beach, at which point vitamin D synthesis shuts down for the day (it takes a

dark-skinned person 6 to 10 times longer to make this amount).

 
 
Doctors in India and Canada give people a once-yearly injection of 600,000 IU of vitamin D
 
(MJA 2005;183:10-12). That would be better, and safer, than having a flu shot.
 
Daily, weekly, or monthly vitamin D tablets work just as well. For more on this subject see
 
my article "Vitamin D in a New Light" and visit Dr. Cannell's Vitamin D Council website.
 
 
 
Donald Miller (send him mail) is a cardiac surgeon and Professor of Surgery at the
 
University of Washington in Seattle. He is a member of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness
 
and writes articles on a variety of subjects for LewRockwell.com.
 
 
His web site is -
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2009 at 8:52am

Current studies going on outside US to create better action plans on school and other actions that could stop or atleast slow the spread of the disease.

I hope some of this type of research is being done here as well.
__________________________________________________________________________
 
Large-scale antibody test on new flu planned in Osaka+
 
OSAKA, July 4 (AP) - (Kyodo)�A large-scale antibody test will be conducted on the new H1N1 influenza, ahead of an anticipated second wave of the new flu later this year, at an Osaka Prefecture school hit in May by Japan's worst group infection, prefectural government officials said Saturday.

By detecting cases left unnoticed due to a lack of symptoms, the test, which would be the largest of its kind in the country, will allow health officials to measure the epidemic's real magnitude and devise more effective countermeasures, the officials said.

 
Since the first cases were confirmed on May 17, a total of 101 students and two teachers were found infected at Kansai Okura Junior & Senior High School in Ibaraki in the prefecture -- an unprecedented group infection in Japan in terms of scale and density -- but recovered before the school reopened June 1 from two weeks of closure.

The blood of hundreds of students and family members will be tested for antibodies that are created and remain for a while once a person is infected with a virus, so those infected but not tested for the flu without symptoms can also be found, the officials said.

The test results will be used in deciding the scale of school closure and other restrictions in the event another group infection breaks out in the future, they said.

The test is also expected to show how the virus spread in the school and give useful epidemiological data for devising an action plan to control an epidemic, an official said.

The prefectural government is currently revising its action plan in view of the flu virus possibly turning more virulent in the next outbreak.

To realize the test, prefectural officials are negotiating with school authorities to allow staffers of the Osaka Prefectural Institute of Public Health to go to the school, they said.

Students of a yet to be decided high school grade and their family members who agree to cooperate will have their blood examined before winter, they said.

Examinees' privacy and the voluntary nature of their cooperation will be paid due attention in carrying out the test, the officials said.

An antibody test has a precedent of successfully detecting an otherwise unfound mild infection in health officials engaged in sterilizing poultry farms hit by avian influenza in Kyoto Prefecture in 2004.

 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2009 at 9:04am
hi...  i know you didn't mean to scream :)  It happens to me all the time...  you can tone it down by hitting post options upper right...then hit edit post...highlight all then get size...and hit the number one and that will shrink it. .... or not... hey... I can lean way back and it's a sinch to read :)
 
 
 
 
sonds like an interesting test....  I think the info they find in hospitalized people is
 
also very important... it will tell if people who are extremly ill are dying from things in
 
combination with A/H1N1..... which died out? after 1919?.... and then was found... years
 
later from the 1930's?   (strain A/Swine/29/1937 H1N1)
...............................................
 
 
 
"Evolution of influenza A virus nucleoprotein genes: implications for the origins of H1N1 human and classical swine viruses."
Gorman O.T., Bean W.J., Kawaoka Y., Donatelli I., Guo Y., Webster R.G.
J. Virol. 65:3704-3714(1991) [PubMed: 2041090] [Abstract]
Cited for: NUCLEOTIDE SEQUENCE [GENOMIC RNA].
 
 
here-
 
 
origin of human and swine influenza A viruses. H1N1 human and classical swine viruses (i.e., those related to Swine/Iowa/15/30) share a single common ancestor, which was estimated to have occurred in 1912 to 1913.
 
 
...................................
 
 
 
 
Of particular note is the National Microbiology Laboratory (NML) in Winnipeg, Manitoba, with its level 4 biohazard containment and research facilities. In 2009, scientists at the NML were the first in the world to decode the genetic sequence for the H1N1 flu virus.
 
............(wikipedia)..............
 
 
 
 
... the CDC determined that the virus strain was genetically similar to the previously known A(H1N1) swine flu circulating among pigs in the United States since about 1999.
 
.......(wikipedia)................
 
 
A recent molecular analysis of the novel H1N1 virus demonstrates that the virus possesses a distinctive evolutionary trait (genetic distinctness) that may be characteristic in pig-human interspecies transmission of influenza A (reported cases of similar reassortant viruses
 
of swine origin occurred in Iowa, Maryland, and Wisconsin between
 
1991 and 2006) (see References: Nava 2009).
 
 
ew.html
 
 
 
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LOL
 
I didnt notice
 
 
Thanks Mary008
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelodyAtHome Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 25 2009 at 9:45am
Mary08 Thanks for this great info. I would think most folks, especialy in the north should be safe with 5,000 ius a day.
:O)
Melody
Originally posted by Mary008 Mary008 wrote:

.
 
 
                                                                       Rays_spin.gif%20-%20%2810K%29
 
 
Vitamin D3
....................
 
...research indicates a necessity to supplement with at least 5,000 units (IU) of vitamin D

daily. To obtain this amount from milk one would need to consume 50 glasses. With a

multivitamin more than 10 tablets would be necessary.

 
Very Good read here-
 

.........................................................................................................................................
 
 
 
To achieve all of vitamin D's benefits
...................................................................

one has to take an amount ten times the government's RDA -   4,000 to 5,000 IU a day.

A light-skinned person will synthesize 20,000 IU of vitamin D in 20 minutes sunbathing

on a tropical beach, at which point vitamin D synthesis shuts down for the day (it takes a

dark-skinned person 6 to 10 times longer to make this amount).

 
 
Doctors in India and Canada give people a once-yearly injection of 600,000 IU of vitamin D
 
(MJA 2005;183:10-12). That would be better, and safer, than having a flu shot.
 
Daily, weekly, or monthly vitamin D tablets work just as well. For more on this subject see
 
my article "Vitamin D in a New Light" and visit Dr. Cannell's Vitamin D Council website.
 
 
 
Donald Miller (send him mail) is a cardiac surgeon and Professor of Surgery at the
 
University of Washington in Seattle. He is a member of Doctors for Disaster Preparedness
 
and writes articles on a variety of subjects for LewRockwell.com.
 
 
His web site is -
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 29 2009 at 3:36pm
does anyone have access to A local PTA Pres?  What are they doing...before... school starts?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 29 2009 at 4:46pm
Couldnt find anything on local sites that were posted after april or beginning of may.
 
Did find this on national website (Also from beginning of May)
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mahshadin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 29 2009 at 9:38pm

Europe
 
Ireland considers keeping schools closed
______________________________________________________________
Extend school holiday to limit swine flu
 
Thursday July 30 2009

Having recently completed postgraduate studies in infectious diseases, I suggest the authorities consider delaying the start of the new school term by two weeks, as a measure to slow the spread of swine flu.

Currently, the number of cases of swine flu is much higher in the UK than in Ireland, with an estimated 100,000 new cases in the UK in the week ending July 19.

The NHS reports that those aged under 14 years continue to be the group predominantly affected.

Significantly, schools remain open in England until late July. It is likely that the reopening of schools in Ireland will be associated with the accelerated spread of swine flu, resulting in many more cases of the illness than we are currently experiencing.

If we delay the reopening of schools for a short period after the majority of holidaymakers have returned from abroad, the spread of swine flu in schools will be reduced, or at least delayed.

The pandemic is at an early stage in Ireland.

If we take this step to slow the spread of the virus, the impact of swine flu (on health, absenteeism and HSE resources) can be minimised in the interim period before a national immunisation programme is rolled out. The HSE and the Department of Health might also usefully consider a campaign in the media to demonstrate, with repeated advertisements, the correct method of handwashing and other swine flu hygiene measures.

 
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act."   G Orwell
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Mary008 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mary008 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 29 2009 at 9:57pm
 
Isn't anyone here the president of their neighborhood association? er... PTA?
 
(anyone remember the lady Screaming that line in Over The Hedge?)
 
watch that movie with the family this weekend...so very funny.
I don't think there has been talk ...yet in the US about closing school.
 
 
 
 
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