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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Should we close the book on Mers-COV
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arirish View Drop Down
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    Posted: January 07 2014 at 10:41am
Like many I feared Hajj would spread Mers world wide but it appears Mers unlike SARS is not very contagious and is mostly a nosocomial infection like MRSA or hospital aquired pneumonia and that good old fashioned infection control would put a stop to it. Unless it reaches a third world country like India where 1 in 3 inpatients pick up a hospital aquired infection I don't see it spreading very fast and even then without mutation I don't think it would be a threat to the West. Anyone else have thoughts on the subject?
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KiwiMum View Drop Down
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Points: 29670 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2014 at 10:56am
I guess it depends on whether or not it mutates. It has all the makings of a pandemic if it mutates so that fast h2h transmission is possible.  Who knows, maybe it will be a force to be reckoned with in a year or so.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Points: 47251 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2014 at 2:11pm
I say wait and see. Although I'm as guilty as anyone of doing it, you can never predict which direction a virus will take and this thing could still mutate. That said, I don't think it's likely (there I go again). Coronaviruses mutate much, much slower than influenza and that's the one I feel is going to be the cause of the next major pandemic. Which flu strain is anybody's guess, but I bet it's got an H and an N in it's name  Wink
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Points: 39215 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2014 at 4:23pm
I guess what I'm asking is, Is there any point of posting every time KSA MOH announces another case or two? Unless the cases start to multiply is it really news?
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I don't see any harm in it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2014 at 9:54pm
I am very happy that MERS did not spread hope it stays that way!
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Points: 24065 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2014 at 12:30am
I had thought of stopping posting WHO totals on a sister site! 

I will still look at information on MERS But as it did not spread rapidly during the last haij I do not think it much of a threat (outside of the Middle East) unless it mutates. So very much to the "back burner" (like H5N1) in terms of what to check on.
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Points: 95187 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2014 at 1:01am
There have been several (imported) MERS-cases in Western Europe. It is possible MERS could be around here without showing much symptoms yet. But when the H1N1-wave spreads to Europe, what I expect, that new Corona-virus can become very nasty ! Any co-infection with H1N1 can make this coming pandemic even more dangerous as it already is ! I did read abourt MRSA-coinfections in the US with the H1N1; there are a lot of bacteria and virusses around that will make this H1N1-2014-virus even a bigger disaster ! What I do read about fatalities in the US (hundreds !!!!!) and the severe cases make me think of 1918. And coinfections can make things even much worse !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2014 at 8:19am
Close the book!!

I was once the biggest shill for MERS. Not now

My assumption was based on significant evidence of human to human transmission and minimal evidence of a host animal involvement. Even without a host the virus was at best around R1.5 which aint a rapid spreader, but was consistent. Now with confirmed Camel involvement the means to control the spread have greatly improved.

By simply isolating Camels the reproduction of the virus is brought back down below R1.

Basically game over..

This virus will be an ongoing problem and will show up from time to time but wont be a pandemic anytime soon.

Just on Mutation. Apparent mutation with this type of coronavirus is very limited and slow. So unless there is some freak change. MERS is in not a big threat
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2014 at 8:33am
We were supposed to throw a party after Hajj if MERS was a non-event!!!!  

Totally forgot!

Here goes!

Hooray its over!!!!!

Embarrassed LOL Wink Tongue  Hug Beer Thumbs Up Handshake Party Clap Big smile LOL Beer Beer Beer Beer Beer Sick Dead 
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Points: 39215 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote arirish Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 10 2014 at 9:05am

"We were supposed to throw a party after Hajj if MERS was a non-event!!!!"
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