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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

Sobering math stats of USA possible death rate - Event Date: March 04 2020 - April 04 2021
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Usk View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 17 2020 at 9:38am

327 million total USA population of which 15 percent at 65 or older  which is 49 million. With cfr at lowest level 1 % that means 490,500 possible dead. Good reasons to SIP
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Points: 26660 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2020 at 1:04pm

Originally posted by Usk Usk wrote:

327 million total USA population of which 15 percent at 65 or older  which is 49 million. With cfr at lowest level 1 % that means 490,500 possible dead. Good reasons to SIP

Thanks, I earlier calculated 2 million dead in the USA, and this was confirmed in the NY Times and by British researchers: 

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Also, this British study predicts 2.2 Million dead in the USA on page 7 of 20:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
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Usk View Drop Down
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Points: 7325 		Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 17 2020 at 2:28pm

I think those articles take whole US population. i limited it to over 65 based on stats from census in 2018

I am sure the number of immune compromised and at risk under 65are in  their stats
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