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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Study of 10 Mil finds no asymptomatic spread

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    Posted: December 29 2020 at 2:58pm

The screening of the 9,865,404 participants without a history of COVID-19 found no newly confirmed COVID-19 cases, and identified 300 asymptomatic positive cases with a detection rate of 0.303 (95% CI 0.270–0.339)/10,000. The median age-stratified Ct-values of the asymptomatic cases were shown in Supplementary Table 1Of the 300 asymptomatic positive cases, two cases came from one family and another two were from another family. There were no previously confirmed COVID-19 patients in these two families. A total of 1174 close contacts of the asymptomatic positive cases were traced, and they all tested negative for the COVID-19.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 3:00pm

And a study of 10 million is as comprehensive a study as you will ever see of CoVid.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 4:49pm

It looks as if China's obsessive control paid off.  


 .......'If you believe Chinese reports.  (As it happens, I do, but I am sure not everyone will.)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2020 at 11:49pm

China's controls do seem to have paid off, but I believe they have been "economical with the truth" regarding the over all totals

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Almost 5% of the people in the Chinese city of Wuhan may have been infected with Covid-19, a study by researchers at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has shown. 

Wuhan's population is estimated at 11 million, which suggests that almost 500,000 people may have had the virus. 

If true, that is almost 10 times higher than Wuhan's officially recorded number of 50,354 cases. 

Asymptomatic cases are not counted in China's official case tally.

The study, carried out early this year, took samples from 34,000 people in Wuhan, as well the broader Hubei province, Beijing, Shanghai and four other provinces, said China's CDC in a statement on WeChat. 

Researchers found an antibody prevalence rate of 4.43% in Wuhan, and a prevalence rate of 0.44% in the broader Hubei province. 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-55481397

But this is still a lot lower than we are seeing in some of the Western countries.   

The different rates between the city and the surrounding countryside do indicate that the severe lockdown did work.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 1:53pm

Point being the study found zero evidence of asymptomatic spread of the virus. And no doubt their contract tracing methods are as effective as it gets as a totalitarian society.  And then you have to ask why would they lie about that aspect, if indeed they are lying about their numbers regarding asymptomatic spread. Nothing to gain lying about it and claiming zero transmission through that aspect of the virus.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 4:26pm

It is a bit hard to have asymptomatic spread, when almost all asymptomatic people are also virus free.

As to why they are virus free - massive lockdowns and social controls.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 30 2020 at 10:17pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

It is a bit hard to have asymptomatic spread, when almost all asymptomatic people are also virus free.

As to why they are virus free - massive lockdowns and social controls.

And yet they tested positive for the virus. And that is hardly virus free. 

Of course then we could have the conversation about what % of positive PCR tests actually contain viable virus.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2020 at 5:58am

Since both the PCR and RT test detect the virus' genetic material, wouldn't that mean that virus is present?  Since genetic material needs to be viable to be detected via the PCR and RT test, couldn't the virus be spread?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 31 2020 at 8:52pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Since both the PCR and RT test detect the virus' genetic material, wouldn't that mean that virus is present?  Since genetic material needs to be viable to be detected via the PCR and RT test, couldn't the virus be spread?

The virus does not need to be viable to trigger a positive PCR or RT test.


Remember, all of the testings that we routinely do measures the current or previous presence of COVID-19 RNA. A non-viable virion counts the same as a viable one in these tests, but only viable COVID-19 can transmit the disease from one person to another. 

https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/11/25/covid-19-viral-load-and-shedding-update-15177

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2021 at 5:36am

Thanks, AI.  But I'm still confused. If non-viable virons count the same as viable in these tests, then anyone who was ever exposed would count as positive.  Why would I not test as positive if I had Covid back in February?  Like, say, mononucleosis virus... Because I had it in college, but years later started showing symptoms again, my viral load was counted twice - a week apart to see if it increased.  Point being is if the virus is present it is viable if the viral count is increasing and not viable if not increasing.  At least that's my understanding.  These tests don't count viral load rather whether the virus is present.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2021 at 2:23pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Thanks, AI.  But I'm still confused. If non-viable virons count the same as viable in these tests, then anyone who was ever exposed would count as positive.  Why would I not test as positive if I had Covid back in February?  Like, say, mononucleosis virus... Because I had it in college, but years later started showing symptoms again, my viral load was counted twice - a week apart to see if it increased.  Point being is if the virus is present it is viable if the viral count is increasing and not viable if not increasing.  At least that's my understanding.  These tests don't count viral load rather whether the virus is present.  

Most likely because of the high % of false negative and false positive test results. The tests are not very accurate. Testing done on the same day of both nostrils may result in a positive and negative result. 

Just because you are positive doesn't mean your viral load is increasing or high. I have a friend who is paraplegic who caught covid and was released from the hospital despite still testing positive per the CDC guidelines. Positive doesn't necessarily mean contagious.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 01 2021 at 7:37pm

I would say it's got more to do with who is taking the test from subject,

When you see people collecting samples on TV,

Sometimes the person puts swab right up the persons nose nearly to the brain, then you see another person taking Sample they hardly go up the nose....

There has to be a better way......




Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 02 2021 at 4:10pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 03 2021 at 2:41pm
Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.🖖

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