Director of Public Health Dr Mark Jacobs says the country is in a second wave of a pandemic.

"There are just over 400 confirmed cases around the country and just under 200 people in hospital and those numbers are continuing to increase and it's still probably reasonably early days with this second wave."

Dr Jacobs says the swine flu has claimed two lives so far this year.

Older Article..hope the source is good..Coyote


Concerns Grow Over Possible H1N1-H5N1 'Reassortment,' Other Mutations
04Dec
2009
by Anthony L. Kimery | HSToday

'The obvious risk is of H5N1 combining with the pandemic [H1N1] virus'

Virologists and influenza authorities are becoming increasingly concerned that the 2009 A-H1N1 flu virus could “reassort” with the highly virulent H5N1 avian flu that’s still prevalent in parts of the world like China, and that a mutation could occur resulting in a new strain that has the lethality of H5N1 and the human transmissibility of A-H1N1.

The concerns have grown in the wake of revelations that mutations of the H1N1 flu virus had been found in Norway and elsewhere, leading experts to fear that it might just be a matter of time before there’s a reassortment of H1N1 and H5N1.

This comes as the World Health Organization (WHO) reported very high pandemic activity in Italy, Norway, the Republic of Moldova, the Russian Federation (Urals region), and Sweden.

Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Poland, Portugal, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Turkey, and Ukraine also reported high pandemic activity.

Meanwhile, authorities said they believe the peak of the A-H1N1 pandemic's second wave hasn’t yet been reached in some parts of the world.

WHO said it’s keeping a "very careful” eye on the reported mutations in order to ascertain whether it is causing more severe illness diseases than the A-H1N1 virus.

"We really need to look at this very carefully to see whether it is in fact associated with severe cases," WHO spokesman Thomas Abraham told reporters. He said investigations by WHO's collaborating network of labs will be able to provide a better "understanding … about clinical features associated with the infection of this particular form of the virus."

Since it emerged, the A-H1N1 virus has constantly been mutating, authorities said. So far, most of these mutations have no clinical significance, but "occasionally we come across a virus that might have clinical significance,” Abraham said.

WHO warned that the H5N1 virus has emerged in poultry in Egypt, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam just as the H1N1 pandemic influenza continues its rampage across the world.

Not only does this place “those in direct contact with birds - usually rural folk and farm workers - at risk of catching the often-fatal disease,” but “the virus could undergo a process of ‘reassortment’ with another influenza virus and produce a completely new strain," WHO stated.

"The most obvious risk is of H5N1 combining with the pandemic ... [H1N1] virus, producing a flu virus that is as deadly as the former and as contagious as the latter."

That the two flu strain could merge, reassert, and produce a new hybrid influenza strain combining the worst elements of each of the viruses is a possibility that authorities have been worrying about ever since the spread of the A-H1N1 virus increased to pandemic level.

“We don’t know if this is possible, but we are certainly aware of the risk,” Dr. Shin Young-soo, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific,” told The Philippine Star. “We are on alert for this development.”

“Influenza viruses are unpredictable. In areas where [A-H1N1] is endemic, we and our partners and national governments are working to build surveillance systems to identify changes in the behavior of the virus,” Shin said. “We are also focusing on early-response capacity to reduce the potential threats to human health.”

Virologists told HSToday.us that “it’s very possible that the two flu strains could combine – this reassortment that we talk about – that could result in a mix of the two,” as one explained. “Of course, what we are concerned about is a mutation that contains the worst characteristics of the two viruses.”

Zhong Nanshan, director of the Guangzhou Institute of Respiratory Diseases in China's southern Guangdong province, warned that China has to be on high alert to any mutation and changes in the virulence of A-H1N1.

"This is something we need to monitor, the change, the mutation of the virus. This is why reporting of the death rate must be really transparent,” he told Reuters Television, adding, China, as you know, is different from other countries. Inside China, H5N1 has been existing for some time, so if there is really a reassortment between H1N1 and H5N1, it will be a disaster.”

WHO reported more than half-a-million laboratory confirmed cases of H1N1 worldwide in mid-November and close to 7,000 deaths, but stressed that in reality that figure is likely much, much higher.

Across Europe, the number of deaths related to pandemic H1N1 has doubled nearly every two weeks since mid-October.

US influenza and public health authorities agreed in interviews with HSToday.us. They said the number of people infected in the US is undoubtedly “much higher” than the number of lab-confirmed cases given that most people who exhibit traditional H1N1 sickness symptoms are not tested to determine if they have H1N1 or a seasonal flu virus strain.

HSToday.us reported last week that four patients at Duke University Medical Center in Durham, NC, at least five persons in a hospital in Wales, and a father in Quebec, Canada become infected with an apparently mutated strain of H1N1 that is resistant to Tamiflu (oseltamivir), the leading antiviral of choice to treat influenza in lieu of having a vaccine.

Meanwhile, Norwegian health authorities reported a potentially significant mutation in H1N1 that could be responsible for the severest symptoms in those infected by the strain - especially persons most at risk to the virus.

Authorities have been monitoring this development very carefully because of concerns that it, too, might become resistant to Tamiflu, and, possibly, other antivirals if they become as widely administered as oseltamivir.

Similar mutations have been reported elsewhere, but haven’t necessarily provoked a more virulent virus or proven to be less resistant to Tamiflu or other antivirals. Nevertheless, authorities increasingly are concerned.

Virologists have been worried for some time that antiviral-resistant influenza could become a serious problem during a pandemic, as antivirals are the primary defense against a pandemic until an effective vaccine is developed and distributed.

Additionally, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported during a November 25 press briefing that there's been "a worrisome spike in serious pneumococcal disease" linked to A-H1N1 had appeared in the CDC's Active Bacterial Core surveillance program that monitors infections at ten locations across the nation.

CDC reported a tripling of cases of severe, life-threatening bacterial infections at the monitoring sites.

Ya Think

Swine flu makes ill in Northeast, shuts school

Thanks for the update! We're just going to need to keep a close watch on this!

Wave two mutated strain?    

 

No prob Dan.  Long time no talk buddy.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

This article came out mid summer, but it could explain the mutation.

Credit goes to Jen over at the H1N1 board.

High genetic compatibility between swine-origin H1N1 and highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza viruses.

Cássio Pontes Octaviani, Makoto Ozawa, Shinya Yamada, Hideo Goto, and Yoshihiro Kawaoka^*

Division of Virology, Department of Microbiology and Immunology and Department of Special Pathogens, International Research Center for Infectious Diseases, Institute of Medical Science, University of Tokyo, Shirokanedai, Minato-ku, Tokyo 108-8639; ERATO Infection-Induced Host Responses Project, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Saitama 332-0012; Influenza Research Institute, Dept. of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53711; Department of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Kobe University, Hyogo 650-0017, Japan; and Creative Research Initiative, Sousei, Hokkaido University, Sapporo 060-0818, Japan

Credit to Jen at the H1N1 board for finding this story:

4th nzer to die of H1N1 if(window.yzq_d==null)window.yzq_d=new Object(); window.yzq_d['yo8zBMtU2TY-']='&U=13heijv2r%2fN%3dyo8zBMtU2TY-%2fC%3d757199.13840550.13853413.12382107%2fD%3dLREC1%2fB%3d6060382%2fV%3d1';

Not a bad move by the WHO.  Unfortunately they feel that the avian flu pandemic threat is more serious than swine flu wave two - over the next couple of months.  You can't get the public's attention if h5 makes the jump unless you down scale the pandemic alert first and start it over. 

How does that line go?  Fear....... I am fear!   

Despite the World Health Organisation declaring the world to be in a post-pandemic phase, that's not the case in New Zealand.

Some schools are reporting record absences, businesses such as hairdressers and dentists are experiencing more than usual the number of appointment cancellations, and hospitals are having higher than normal admissions, though other areas have so far been relatively untouched by the virus.

Director of public health Mark Jacobs said the uneven spread was not surprising given the prevalence of the virus last year.

"It's pretty patchy as it washes through different regions. Schools that were not hit hard last year are finding it's a different story this year."

The Wairarapa, Seddon and parts of the Waikato had been badly affected but areas such as Wellington and Gisborne were not.

At Matamata's Firth Primary School last week, seven of the school's 12 teachers and almost 20% of the pupils succumbed to the flu, while in Wairarapa, half the area's schools or training facilities had 15% or more of pupils off sick. Waikato Hospital also took the unusual step of writing to schools and child care centres informing them about the high number of viruses circulating in the community.

Jacobs said with winter viral diseases prevalent at the moment, it was inevitable children would get sick.

"Kids are the best spreaders of the flu, partly because if they haven't had it before they will catch it and partly because washing their hands thoroughly is not always the first thing on their minds," Jacobs said.

He warned that although there were "a whole lot of different regional waves of infection" it all added up to the second wave yet to peak. "In some parts of the North Island in particular it hasn't happened yet, but it will happen."

Jacobs said the good news was that by this time next year swine flu was likely to be just another seasonal flu strain. So far this year two deaths have been confirmed as being due to swine flu and about four others have been referred to the coroner for confirmation.

Vaccination against swine flu is still available and recommended for pregnant women or people with underlying health conditions.

As do I !

Scaremonger????  I think not! It's all just information.

Hi Albert and gang,

Pandemic Influenza H1N1 2009 (swine flu) - Update 206

Influenza H1N1 activity reports are continuing to show a decline.

The number of influenza calls to Healthline is back to normal - currently at the same rate as in 2008 - the year before the pandemic. Though the picture is complicated by the Christchurch earthquake which has bumped up the number of calls to Healthline overall.

Since last Thursday's update, there has been one additional death linked to swine flu reported. This brings the total to date to 17. Thirteen of these deaths have so far been confirmed as being due to swine flu. Details of the latest death is reported on the Auckland DHB website.

As at midday today, there have been 648 hospitalisations of laboratory-confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1, including 11 people currently in intensive care. So far this year, a total of 103 people with confirmed H1N1 have been admitted to intensive care. These figures do not include influenza-like illness among people admitted to hospital without a positive H1N1 laboratory test result.

It's important to seek medical advice early, particularly for people with underlying medical conditions or who are severely overweight or pregnant as they are at greater risk of a more severe illness. If you have flu-like symptoms, phone your GP first before you go in to help them manage your care and prevent spread to others. For health advice, call Healthline on 0800 611 116.

http://www.moh.govt.nz/moh.nsf/indexmh/influenza-a-h1n1-update-206-060910