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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

The Suicene....

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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    Posted: March 12 2023 at 5:21am

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/we-are-now-in-the-suicene.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/we-are-now-in-the-suicene.html ;

We have left the Anthropocene. We are now functionally extinct and we look set to drag most, if not all life on Earth into extinction with us, as we keep appointing omnicidal maniacs who act in conflict with best-available scientific analysis. We are now in the Suicene.

DJ, There have been warnings for climate change since the 19th century...[url]https://daily.jstor.org/how-19th-century-scientists-predicted-global-warming/[/url] or https://daily.jstor.org/how-19th-century-scientists-predicted-global-warming/ ;

But the road to understanding climate change stretches back to the tweed-clad middle years of the 19th century—when Victorian-era scientists conducted the first experiments proving that runaway CO2 could, one day, cook the planet.

In other words, “global warming was officially discovered more than 100 years ago.”

and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#First_calculations_of_greenhouse_effect,_1896[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#First_calculations_of_greenhouse_effect,_1896 

DJ-Extreme weather events, (Ant)Arctic sea ice melt, glacier decline should not come as a surprise...There is no point blaming politics for the bad choices you have made...

On top of-linked with-climate collapse we now face an out of control global healthcrisis...Starting wars only makes matters worse...

Damage control-trying to buy time, slow down a collapse may still be possible and have some use...Somehow democracy did become democrazy...voting for politicians that deny problems as a "solution" for those problems...

DJ-I wonder will we survive 2023....or will a mix of "extreme weather events"-now the "new normal", combined with lots of diseases, wars, hyperinflation end life on this planet....

Humans are able to be very creative, clever...still "clever mistakes" do a lot more damage than stupid mistakes...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 20 2023 at 2:13am

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/03/sea-surface-temperature-at-record-high.html 

DJ-Record high sea(surface) temperature mean;

-further break down of polar ice (both land and sea...more rain in (Ant)arctic regions, more wind erosion)

-Stronger/more storms - lasting longer, very likely showing up in regions that do not see that kind of storms before (Pacific coast of Chile a.o.)

-More extreme weather events, rain...so more flooding

-More extreme temperatures

We are moving further into a food crisis...

DJ-Like climate collapse politics simply "does not look up" to ongoing pandemics, financial collapse...increased risk for nuclear war...

If we do not change the way-we as humans-act we are killing ourselves high speed...

There are LOTS of things we could/should do;

-Decrease bio-hazards by decreasing meat production (Porc in China in "pig-flats" with 10 layers...)

-Decrease fossil fuel use...less travel by car/plane

-Decrease transport all kinds of diseases all over the world...(from insect in old tyres to infected animals)

-Increase surveilance...In NL we may only see sequencing of CoViD in hospital cases...most older patients-with new variants starting spread in younger population...

-Get realistic on risks....We are on our way to END !!! life....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2023 at 2:56am

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/temperatures-rising-fast-march-2023.html ;

Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly

Temperatures have been rising fast in March 2023. The image below shows the Monthly Northern Hemisphere Land Temperature Anomaly up to March 2023, with two trends added. The blue trend, based on Jan.1850-Mar.2023 NOAA data, points at a 3°C rise in 2032. The magenta trend, based on Oct.2010-Mar.2023 NOAA data, better reflects variables such as El Niño and sunspots, and illustrates how they could trigger a rise of more than 5°C in 2026. Anomalies are versus 1901-2000 (not versus pre-industrial). 

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The sea surface temperature between 60°South and 60°North has been above 21°C for a while, something that hasn't happened before in the NOAA record that started in 1981.

Vast amounts of ocean heat are moving toward the Arctic. With further melting of sea ice and thawing of permafrost, the Arctic Ocean can be expected to receive more heat over the next few years, i.e. more heat from direct sunlight, more heat from rivers, more heat from heatwaves and more ocean heat from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

Last year, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September. The continuing rise of ocean heat threatens to trigger massive loss of sea ice (and loss of albedo) and eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.

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This threatens to cause rapid destabilization of methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean leading to explosive eruptions of methane, as its volume increases 160 to 180-fold when leaving the hydrates, as illustrated by the above image.
Conclusion
A huge temperature rise thus threatens to unfold over the next few years, as illustrated by the image in the right. Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial to 2026 could be more than 18.44°C, potentially as early as in 2026.

Meanwhile, humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post

See also [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/weve-been-warned-el-nino-watch-initiated-ag-industry-crosshairs[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/weve-been-warned-el-nino-watch-initiated-ag-industry-crosshairs

This week, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released an El Niño Watch, indicating the increasing likelihood of the weather-altering phenomenon developing in the Pacific Ocean. If El Niño does form, it could result in heavy rainfall and heatwaves in specific regions across the globe, potentially causing disruptions in the agricultural industry.

A watch is issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño within the next six months. The Climate Prediction Center said probabilities have risen over the last month from 61% to 74% of an El Niño emerging between August and October.

DJ, Sealevel rise is just one of many aspects of the present climate collapse. Food production now is in a danger zone...(made worse by bird flu at unseen levels). Australia did see another record storm recently...

The increased risk of earthquakes (due to less ice-pressure pushing down land in many places; Greenland, Antarctica, Himalaya etc) does also increase risk of tsunami waves reaching polar regions further destroying sea ice/snow on low lying land...

Like pandemics climate change is a very complex process. One factor being somewhat different may change the calculation/outcome...

The "baked in" temperature rise-many experts think-is already that much the only option left is "limiting risks/buying time"...slowing down the collapse that is already going on...

Still "politics" go for wars to "save the US$"....we have run out of time...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 15 2023 at 11:32pm

April 16-and "we" are still around....

DJ-I think we face major crises but NEVER should give up hope...

-In climate collapse one of my "hopes" was land-ice slipping into the Oceans (Greenland, Canada North, Antarctica) would do enough to cool the ocean water. A matter of amounts of how fast how much land-ice could slip into the ocean to become sea-ice...

Even the best experts may not know how that process may work out...however warming of ocean water now is going that fast, decline of sea-ice also increasing. Eventough we are not in a BOE/Blue Ocean Event in the Arctic; less then 1 million km2 sea ice...The multi year sea ice is going down fast...quality of ice is decreasing. We have less ice longer-so even nordic waters can warm up longer...

-The chances of "large methane burbs"  is another big ?  In general methane is released from the ocean floor in streams of small bubles. However (and I am not an expert) there may be a chance we could see (as a result of an earthquake, drilling etc) "larger bubbles"...The big bubbles may cause tsunami-like events...

day for history in SE Asia, records allover
All time records:
Thailand
45.4C Tak agro Highest temperature in Thai history
44.6C Tak Airport
43.5C Phetchabun
Laos
41.6C Luang Prabang  (yesterday)
41.5C Phonhong
41.4C Vientiane
41.4C Sayaburi
China
38.2C Mengla Monthly record
giornata per la storia nel sud-est asiatico, record dappertutto
 Record di tutti i tempi:
 Tailandia
 45.4C Tak agro Temperatura più alta nella storia tailandese
 44.6C Aeroporto Tak
 43.5C Phetchabun
 Laos
 41.6C Luang Prabang (ieri)
 41.5C Phonhong
 41.4C Vientiane
 41.4C Sayaburi
 Cina
 38.2C Mengla Record mensile
@extremetemps

From [url]https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva 

-[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature ;

The wet-bulb temperature (WBT) is the temperature read by a thermometer covered in water-soaked (water at ambient temperature) cloth (a wet-bulb thermometer) over which air is passed.[1] At 100% relative humidity, the wet-bulb temperature is equal to the air temperature (dry-bulb temperature); at lower humidity the wet-bulb temperature is lower than dry-bulb temperature because of evaporative cooling.

The wet-bulb temperature is defined as the temperature of a parcel of air cooled to saturation (100% relative humidity) by the evaporation of water into it, with the latent heat supplied by the parcel.[2] A wet-bulb thermometer indicates a temperature close to the true (thermodynamic) wet-bulb temperature. The wet-bulb temperature is the lowest temperature that can be reached under current ambient conditions by the evaporation of water only.

Even heat-adapted people cannot carry out normal outdoor activities past a wet-bulb temperature of 32 °C (90 °F), equivalent to a heat index of 55 °C (130 °F). The theoretical limit to human survival for more than a few hours in the shade, even with unlimited water, is a wet-bulb temperature of 35 °C (95 °F) – equivalent to a heat index of 70 °C (160 °F).[3]

DJ, there are limits for live...Humans can only survive under certain conditions. We need a certain level of oxygene, temperature, humidity...(and of course we need water, food, company).

My non expert view is we may be moving to seeing more often places reaching such high temperatures/humidity people/animals die in high numbers...Parts of India, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq do see temperatures of 50C/120F+ much to often...it may be hard to grow products under those conditions...(There are some claims UV-C more often reaches the biosphere/ground...increasing problems from skin cancer to damage on plants). 

Some oil rich trees could start self igniting if temperatures get high enough...besides that an increase in thunderstorms is also increasing wildfires...

So -YES- we face very major climate "questions"...however the biggest problem is not that we do not know the answers...we simply are not willing to give the known answers...

Stop flying all over the planet, reduce cars/fossil fuel...much more durable economy oriented at surviving not maximum profits...WE -US !!!- have to change the way we live !

Less/no meat, if possible no car, no flying can make a major difference...! 

WE ARE NOT POWERLESS !!!! ACT NOW !!!!!

-Pandemics are linked to climate disasters in many ways...We offer free global travel for all kinds of diseases all over the world ! And that is down right stupid !!!

Living with CoViD is an illusion based on the idea that once you did get CoViD you will not catch it again..."natural herd immunity" on top of vaccine immunity...That idea is WRONG !!!!

The WHO may still claim CoViD is NOT airborne-but contact-spread...that view also is incorrect...

A major problem with CoViD may be the early infection may be "mild" often (50%?) missed...[url]https://www.innatoss.com/en/customers/#COVID-19-info[/url] or https://www.innatoss.com/en/customers/#COVID-19-info  however LONG TERM damage may be serious...

One of the reasons [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak#Cases_per_country_and_territory may be in decrease of immunity...After catching CoViD -even without symptoms at first- immunity defense against other diseases may become less...

It is unclear how-on the long term- that will develop...NOT testing/reporting is not helping...You do NOT solve any problem by ignoring it...

My non-expertview is both CoViD (also spreading more and more into mammals from humans) and H5N1 (a.o. spreading from birds into mammals-mutating...)  are such a potential risk we may not survive..."Long-CoViD" often chronic CoViD may limit already over 100 million people in daily activities...

-

-A third factor [url]https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/[/url] or https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/  (very US oriented-most focus on war risks)  is global war...We do not need a nuclear war to end humanity...a "conventional" war can kill us all...The main reason for wars is profit...some people get very rich from selling "the best" weapons-if possible to both sides of (created) conflicts...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_refugee_crises[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_refugee_crises World War Two may have seen 60 million refugees leaving/losing their country. The Ukraine war may now result in 9 million refugess...This list put present number of refugees at 30,7 million...but is excluding millions of refugees fleeing climate change, drug-wars, internal refugees...Societies can not survive if people can not make a home...have a basic economy...

The way to stop wars is stop creating armies....People have NO right to kill other people...DJ-For me-here and now-it is easy talking...but my basic belief is I do not have a right to kill fellow humans...If "politics" demand me to kill I will refuse...even if "politics" would kill me for that...I am willing to do medical work, fire-fighter...try to save lives...

So-also here-we as humans have a choice to make ! If "politics" tell you to kill other people say NO ! [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thou_shalt_not_kill[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thou_shalt_not_kill ...lots of discussion in religion...I am not a religious person...but find killing other humans immoral...

-My basic story is...WE are ACTIVELY !!!! destroying our planet...WE do it to ourselves ! WE have choices ! 

We could be "to deep" into many very serious crises but still may have a moral obligation to "do what is right"...even if we no longer can stop major disasters...we at least should try to go for damage control !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2023 at 9:55pm

Let me be honest, I -DJ- find the info that depressing...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/humans-may-be-extinct-in-2026.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/04/humans-may-be-extinct-in-2026.html 

I comfort myself with the idea/hopium we do not know all...maybe some feedbacks can still save us...

But besides the unfolding climate disaster we have a global healthcrisis likely getting worse..A US "president" pushing for global war...

I hope I will read this post in 2033 and smile about it...Hope to be VERY wrong !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote judeusx Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 25 2023 at 10:23pm

This are natural cycles,we cant change them ! We are going into a mini ice age.And we get 2 incoming objects in next decades. Still we are poisoning the planet thats true ! But in many more dangerous ways than CO2.Gaia will heal herself. BUT... Nuclear radiation, 5G wifi,AI, MRNA vaccinations,GM crops,destroying of empathy with screen time, destroying/disconnecting of the human soul ! ...... Thats suicene !

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2023 at 6:26am

judeusx, 

I do not see any signs for whatever mini ice age....In general glacier-melt is increasing (with in Scandinavia some still growing...). Sea Surface Temperature record high for time of year...Antarctic sea ice as good as record low...

As far as I understand lots of climatologists think we should be moving into another ice age by now...the fact that we are not doing so only shows how big the problem is...

And -yes- natural cycles will be also a factor...

"Gaia" in the way of this planet will survive humans...but we may have done that much damage to climate a Venus-like climate may be coming...ending most life...

Disconnecting the human soul-forgetting what makes us human(s) - should be a major worry...We need to "rethink ourselves" if we want to survive...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote judeusx Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 27 2023 at 11:09am

Yes true,signs still not clear.Im also not 100% convinced,but looks most logical. Now the vulcanoes start erupting ashclouds,the natural reaction to the warming,to cool down.Yes its complicated,but the global warming scare is being used for other goals. No,its the other way around,human interference is also a factor,which is bad enough,dont understand me wrong.(also Haarp etc ) The danger from radiation,GMO,Mrna manipulation is becoming irreversable. (just a side note :depleted uranium Iraq few hunderd thousend ? victims,( plus 150.000 veterans and their families,from the experimental vaccinations !) then Serbia,now Ukraine..) Ending most life is in my opinion not even the most scaring aspect,life will appear again,its the genetic holocaust started now. And yes,the major worry,the Human soul,empathy,compassion. The secret of the Human power,"unique" in the universe like Werner von Braun told on his deadbed..... ( most optimistic view, see Dan Winter (the living Tesla )

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 01 2023 at 4:22am

[url]https://earthcommission.org/news/publications/just-world-safe-planet/[/url] or https://earthcommission.org/news/publications/just-world-safe-planet/

A just world on a safe planet: First study quantifying Earth System Boundaries live

Humans are taking colossal risks with the future of civilization and everything that lives on Earth, a new Earth Commission study published today in the journal Nature shows. Developed by more than 40 researchers from across the globe, the scientists deliver the first quantification of safe and just Earth system boundaries on a global and local level for several biophysical processes and systems that regulate the state of the Earth system.

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Health indicators for people and planet

The Earth Commission has quantified safe and just boundaries for climate, biodiversity, freshwater and different kinds of pollution to air, soil and water – and most have been breached. For example, human activities are altering water flows, excessive amounts of nutrients are released into waterways from fertilizer use, and limited natural areas are left. This poses existential threats for a stable planet, to ecosystems and their vital contributions to people. The world has already passed the safe and just climate boundary, which is set at 1°C above pre industrial temperature levels, as tens of millions of people are already harmed by the current level of climate change.

“Our results are quite concerning: Within the five analyzed domains, several boundaries, on a global and local scale, are already transgressed. This means that unless a timely transformation occurs, it is most likely that irreversible tipping points and widespread impacts on human well-being will be unavoidable. Avoiding that scenario is crucial if we want to secure a safe and just future for current and future generations,” continued Rockström.

“The Earth system is in danger, as many tipping elements are about to cross their tipping points. So far, seventeen tipping elements are identified in scientific literature, among them, nine are cryosphere-related. The Asia High Mountain Cryosphere (AHMC) is fast changing and close to becoming a new tipping element, which can impact the regional social-economy.” explained Prof. Dahe Qin, Co-Chair of the Earth Commission and Director of the Academic Committee, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

DJ [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IJ2od9pXqE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IJ2od9pXqE on slavery in the Islamic world....it did get less attention-but the "kill ratio" sometimes was even worse...for every slave reaching the (Ottoman) Cairo-slave market several others died on transport...Maybe resembling the way we today (mis)treat animals...

Humans are their own worst enemies...we keep doing major harm to our own species...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 04 2023 at 12:10am

DJ What is killing us-it is already happening !- is a combination of "events"...from pandemics, wars to climate collapse...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat.html ;

The above image shows that the sea surface temperatures on the North Atlantic (SST NA 0-60N, 0-80W) was 21.9°C on June 2, 2023 (black line), much higher than the SST on June 3, 2022 (orange). 

SST NA reached a record high of 24.9°C in early September 2022, and this high temperature occurred while La Niña suppressed the temperature. This time, El Niño is on the way. 

Sea ice concentration is getting lower in many places and there is open water in parts of the Beaufort Sea and Baffin Bay, as illustrated by the Uni of Bremen image on the right.

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As discussed in earlier posts such as this one, conditions are dire:
• Earth's energy imbalance is at record high
• emissions are at record high
• greenhouse gas concentrations are at record high
• temperatures are very high, especially in the Arctic
• North Atlantic sea surface temperatures are at record high
• sea ice is very vulnerable
• the Jet Stream is strongly deformed

Furthermore, El Niño is on the way, sunspots are higher than predicted and the Tonga submarine volcano did add large amounts of water vapor high into the atmosphere.

All this looks set to jointly result in massive loss of Arctic sea ice over the coming months, with loss of the latent heat buffer and loss of albedo threatening to trigger eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as has been described many times before, such as in this post, in this post and in this post.

DJ, from a history perspective the inter-action of crises is of interest. 

Climate change will result in more wars over water. Climate change, wars-further increase the number of refugees-people trying to find a save place...

And of course some countries trying to keep refugees out-in fact killing thousands of refugees each year...making relations inside those countries even worse. More repression, censorship..."superior elite"  ruling ever harder over the "inferior mass" with less rights...still "democrazy"...however how long before wars become civil wars ? 

Can these scenario's be avoided ? At least we should prepare for the food, water, climate crises...on top of health, housing, etc. crises...However the same people/elite NOT dealing with the present problems only worsen the problems...

[url]https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/06/03/aavt-j03.html[/url] or https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/06/03/aavt-j03.html , [url]https://southfront.org/eric-zuesse-which-harms-democracy-more-conservative-deceivers-or-liberal-deceivers/[/url] or https://southfront.org/eric-zuesse-which-harms-democracy-more-conservative-deceivers-or-liberal-deceivers/ 

...political crises may result in new politics....Humans struggle with survival...the struggle only did get more complex...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 26 2023 at 12:04am

DJ, [url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-4.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-4.html ;

The image below shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 23.3°C on June 21, 2023 (on the black line), 0.9°C higher than the 22.4°C on June 21, 2022 (on the orange line). A record high of 24.9°C was reached on September 4, 2022, even while La Niña then was suppressing the temperature, whereas now there's an El Niño.

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Global sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year on June 23, 2023, i.e. only 21.57 million km², as illustrated by the image below.

-

Contributing to this is very low Antarctic sea ice extent. The image below shows Antarctic sea ice extent up to June 23, 2023. Values in the column on the left are for February 16; Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record minimum on February 16, 2023. Values in the column on the right are for June 23. Highlighted are three years: 2023 (red), 2022 (blue) and 2016 (black). Antarctic sea ice extent was also very low at the end of the year 2016, which was a strong El Niño year, yet extent was even lower at the very end of the year in 2022, even though that was during a La Niña.

very depressing....The increasing heat does mean more melt not only on the North/South Pole but also in mountain area's....Part of rock is sticking together by frozen water...If that ice melts you may see more landslides...with increasing risks of lots of land ending up in mountain lakes resulting in local tsunami-like scenario's ...

Besides that the flow of rivers may change because of landslides in mountains...(after a Nepal earthquake we did see that already). 

On the long run less ice/snow in mountains means less fresh water for the people...for food production. 

---------

More land-ice will be on the move in Greenland, Antarctica, many other places...Large chunks of ice dropping into the ocean can cause major waves...(so far not that strong one would see tsunami like risks...). Also methane release from ocean floor permafrost may become more explosive....

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Atlantic_hurricane_season so far has not gone wild...But more heat in the ocean=,more energy for stronger storms (with rain a growing risk). 

[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?board=3.0[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?board=3.0 trying to follow events...It may be to early to see what El Nino brings...

We did get out of a long warm time here in NL....July models indicate it may be getting 1-3C+ later on...with early part of July temperatures-here in NL-around "normal" (for the 1990-2020 norm)...We did get lots of rain during spring...June so far has been very dry so the upper parth of the ground is getting dry...Overuse of groundwater may cause problems on the longer term...

July, August may be the most warm, dry, months in NW Europe...so the "real summer" still has to start...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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DJ, Of course wars and pandemics "help" people "ending" themselves...[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/extreme-heat-stress.html ;

As the EPA animation on the right illustrates, a relatively small rise in average temperature can result in a lot more hot and extremely hot weather.

The three images underneath, from the IPCC, show the effect on extreme temperatures when (a) the mean temperature increases, (b) the variance increases, and (c) when both the mean and variance increase for a normal distribution of temperature.

The thermodynamic wet-bulb temperature is determined by temperature, humidity and pressure (hPa), and it is the lowest temperature that can be achieved by evaporative cooling of a water-wetted ventilated surface.

As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, there comes a point where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling.

Once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.

The 'Misery Index' is the perceived air temperature as a combination of wind chill and heat index (which combines air temperature and relative humidity, in shaded areas).

The image below shows high readings on the Misery Index for parts of Pakistan, the 'feels like' temperature at nullschool.net. On June 22, 2023, an air temperature of 45.4°C (113.7°F) and a relative humidity of 25% resulted in 'feels like' temperatures as high as 51°C (123.7°F) at the area marked by the green circle. 

DJ Canadian wildfire smoke now over Europe....there are lots more wildfires (expected) so air quality is getting worse...soot ending up on the poles...

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_temperature_and_health[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_temperature_and_health ;

Living organisms can survive only within a certain temperature range. When the ambient temperature is excessive, many animals cool themselves to below ambient temperature by evaporative cooling (sweat in humans and horses, saliva and water in dogs and other mammals); this helps to prevent potentially fatal hyperthermia due to heat stress. The effectiveness of evaporative cooling depends upon humidity; wet-bulb temperature, or more complex calculated quantities such as wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) which also takes account of solar radiation, give a useful indication of the degree of heat stress, and are used by several agencies as the basis for heat stress prevention guidelines.

A sustained wet-bulb temperature exceeding 35 °C (95 °F) is likely to be fatal even to fit and healthy people, unclothed in the shade next to a fan; at this temperature human bodies switch from shedding heat to the environment, to gaining heat from it.[9] In practice, such ideal conditions for humans to cool themselves will not always exist – hence the high fatality levels in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves, which saw wet-bulb temperatures no greater than 28 °C.[10]

A 2015 study concluded that depending on the extent of future global warming, parts of the world could become uninhabitable due to deadly wet-bulb temperatures.[11] A 2020 study reported cases where a 35 °C (95 °F) wet-bulb temperature had already occurred, albeit too briefly and in too small a locality to cause fatalities.[10]

On top of that (farm)animals die...lack of water or flooding destroying both animals and plants/trees...our food. 

Top-priority for western politics is more war....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 27 2023 at 1:15pm

[url]https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123023002451?via%3Dihub[/url] or https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590123023002451?via%3Dihub ;

Abstract

Climate models are developed based on well-established physical principles applied to past and recent climate changes. 

There is considerable confidence that the models can also provide estimates of some climate variables (i.e., surface temperature, ��2 levels, ocean heat content). Despite advanced mathematical developments in the field of climate modeling, the existing climate models suffer from the following major limitations:

- first, the models do not consider that their estimations will be highly unreliable when a tipping point is triggered; 

-secondly, many of the environmental tipping points are already triggered, however their existence is overlooked; and

- third, the existing climate models do not consider the interrelations among the tipping points (i.e., one tipping point can trigger other tipping points to be tipped more rapidly). 

Our objective is to describe the importance of environmental “tipping points,” the importance of which is often ignored or downplayed in relevant literature. 

Our analysis, based on extensive multidisciplinary literature searches, reveals that there are many environmental tipping points which are overlooked in climate-modeling studies. We argue that climate modeling could be improved when the tipping points and their interrelations are all considered within the modeling process. 

We further discuss two other important issues regarding environmental tipping points: 

-first, all tipping points might not be as impactful on the climate system, therefore their relative impacts should be ranked; 

-second, it is in principle impossible to know the exact number of environmental tipping points, therefore even though it could be possible to devise improvements to the existing climate models with our suggestions, it may be impossible to achieve a perfect model to estimate the climate variables of the upcoming years. 

The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: 

In the background section, we introduce research on tipping points within commonly used climate models. We explain the aerosol masking effect and ocean dynamics with respect to their commonly overlooked roles as important contributors to environmental change. 

We introduce remote sensing and AI methods that serve as promising approaches for identification of currently unknown tipping points. 

We mention perturbation theory, a standard set of mathematical methods in physics that serves as a potentially systematic method to rank environmental tipping points according to their impact on extant climate models. 

In the discussion section, we make suggestions regarding further research on identifying the typically overlooked tipping points, and we make suggestions to improve climate models by considering additional information presented in the current paper. 

Finally, we conclude this article summarizing our chief methodological recommendations.

DJ from [url]https://guymcpherson.com/[/url] or https://guymcpherson.com/ 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Usk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2023 at 1:46am

Figure 1: 10-year averages between 1979 and 2018 and yearly averages for 2007, 2012, and 2023 of the daily (a) ice extent and (b) ice area in the Northern Hemisphere and a listing of the extent and area of the current, historical mean, minimum, and maximum values in 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 01 2023 at 11:31pm

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_plume[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_plumeThe Spanish Plume (Penacho Ibérico in Spanish and Spaanse Pluim in Dutch) is a weather pattern in which a plume of warm air moves from the Iberian plateau or the Sahara to northwestern Europe, causing thunderstorms. This meteorological pattern can lead to extreme high temperatures and intense rainfall during the summer months, with potential for flash flooding, damaging hail, and tornado formation.

DJ, the article in Dutch also mentioned october 28-30 2022 did bring very high temperatures for NL...very late in the season...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/01/june-2023-warmest-sunniest-june-122-years[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/01/june-2023-warmest-sunniest-june-122-years ;

It was the warmest and sunniest June in the Netherlands since 1901, the national weather institute KNMI reported. In June, De Bilt has never had so many summer days as this year. In the exceedingly sunny and warm month, there were 16 summer days and two tropical days, compared to the typical five summer days and one tropical day in the Netherlands. In addition, the average temperature was 19.3 degrees. On a national average, the sun shone for about 330 hours, while 214 hours of sunshine are normal.

June 2023 was characterized by long-lasting sunshine and by many days with the highest sunshine duration. It was the sunniest on the Dutch west coast with about 340 hours of sunshine. In Twente, the sun shone the least with about 320 hours. That is still over 120 hours more than normal.


While June ranks as the warmest month in the Netherlands, this year is among the five driest years. With a national average of about 23 millimeters of precipitation compared to the normal 66 millimeters, the month was very dry. In the coastal provinces, locally no more than 5-10 millimeters fell. It was wettest in the southeast and east. On average across the country, the precipitation deficit increased to about 170 millimeters by the end of June. A deficit of this magnitude normally occurs in less than five percent of years

DJ one of the misleading "facts" in climate change can be going for averages...ignoring the risks shorter extremes can bring...

-A wildfire with temperatures above 40C is more explosive then  such a fire at 25C

-Crop damage, animal disease/deaths are heat/drought related...One may see an "average summer" but a few extreme hours can kill a lot of food production...

-Low waterlevels in rivers mean logistics via shipping is getting problematic. If high temperatures also deform rails, melt roads not only food production also logistics has a problem. 

Paul Beckwith/PB [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3gLZZHu2_I[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3gLZZHu2_I ;

3,201 views  Jun 30, 2023

As I said many moons ago, Earth is losing the ability to provide for and support us and all the plants and animals. It is not rapidly dying, but it is actively being killed by us and the weapon of choice that we use is our fossil fuel combustion. 

I chat about a brand spanking new peer reviewed scientific paper on Ecological Tipping Points. Basically, we have been modelling dynamic systems incorrectly for years, and we do not recognize the reality that many of our ecological and physical systems are much closer to abrupt tipping point thresholds than we can imagine. 

Most of our models to-date examine incremental change in one primary driver that increases and eventually reaches a threshold whereby the system either undergoes a “flickering” between the existing and new state, or a critical slowing down of frequency (with an increase in amplitude of fluctuation) and then flips (tips) into a new system state. 

In reality, systems are more complex than this, and we need to model: 

1) changes in primary driver 

2) changes in secondary driver 

3) changes in tertiary driver 

4) addition of stochastic (random) or uncoupled noise 

5) addition of coupled noise 

When we include all of these multiple forcings and two types of noise into our simulations, we find that the system tipping (crossing a breakpoint or threshold of no return) occurs much sooner, in fact occurs substantially sooner, or closer to today by between 38% and 81%. 

Although the four different systems examined in this paper represent a cross-section of all systems, the results are likely variously applicable to Earth systems like Arctic Sea Ice collapse to a Blue Ocean event, collapse of Amazon Rainforest to a grassland or savannah state, loss of Boreal Forests, Ocean Acidification, Loss of Arctic Permafrost, loss of Greenland Ice Sheets, loss of Antarctica Ice sheets, and Shutdown of AMOC and PMOC (Pacific Meridional Overturning Circulation), as well as Biodiversity Collapse. 

Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I educate people and caution people on our ongoing abrupt climate system change. 

Live long and prosper, or at least be in the know. Sincerely, Paul, Shackey, Newton, …

DJ, I have a very limited history background. Dramatic changes "revolutions" can be explained-but hardly ever may have been predicted...

The US-1776, French 1789, Russian 1917, Iran 1979 revolutions-just to mention a few-in many ways were NOT that likely...In most cases "powers for the status quo" supposed to stop "revolutions" were stronger...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-5.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/06/arctic-sea-ice-under-threat-update-5.html so...

In addition, the Jet Stream is strongly deformed, and this threatens to strengthen heatwaves extending over the Arctic Ocean and causing hot water from rivers to enter the Arctic Ocean, and to strengthen storms accelerating the flow of ocean heat into the Arctic Ocean, while fires and storms contribute to darkening of the sea ice, further speeding up its demise.

The danger is that, as El Niño strengthens and as ocean heat keeps entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, a huge amount of heat will abruptly be pushed into the Arctic Ocean.

Yes...there is still a lot of ice in Greenland/Arctic, Antarctic, higher mountains...but a few days of extreme heat for those regions may "kill the ice"...even if the "average temperature" for all of the year could be BELOW what one would expect...Extremes matter !

------

One could see "sui-cene" as linked to suicidium in wich "sui" means (your) self "caedere" means "killing"..."cene" stands for an "era"...so "Suicene" means- we as humans are killing life...not only ourselves...but part of the proces is killing other life as well...

-Pandemics in many ways by now should be seen as "man made"...NOT because of "lab leaks" eventough there are risks but by the way we now see over 8 billion people confronted with insane number of farm animals and crazy level of travel...We are doing all we can to boost diseases and spread them around the planet...

We manage to combine it with

-wars....As always the #1 wants to hang on to "power" via war...#2 etc. try to change its position...In a nuclear age/modern warfare can get that destructive it can end live...

-Of course we "need" cars...billions of them...We need millions of planes...addicted to fossil energy...Like we are getting addicted to mobile phones...

-Social/economic/political collapse; politics that much out of touch with both voters and reality it acts like "a car with the steering wheel no longer in contact with the wheels on the road"...

Most humans "outsourced" thinking...to those that make profit from outsourcing thinking...We have more knowledge than ever before in history...in many places people still live longer than ever before...But we have reached "peak humans"....

In a "friendly" scenario people will limit the number of children...so from over 8 billion humans in 2023 we may be at 4 to 5 billion ??? in 2100....??? However for now forget about "a friendly scenario"...we did do so much damage the enviroment is getting hostile for life...

So forget about "one pandemic every 100 years" ...we in many ways [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_HIV/AIDS[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_HIV/AIDS have been in a global health crisis for decades...For now it only will get worse !!!

More heat=more war over water, food, energy...More starvation and poverty...

Of course there are -still- lots of things to "limit the damage"...investing in wars is NOT helping...


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/06/low-earners-and-city-dwellers-struggling-to-stay-cool-at-home/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/06/low-earners-and-city-dwellers-struggling-to-stay-cool-at-home/ ;

Health boards are calling on local authorities and housing corporations to take measures to stop people overheating in their homes.

Almost half of people are having difficulty cooling off in the house, the garden or in their neighbourhood during longer spells of hot weather, a survey among 140,000 people by regional health boards and Radboudumc has found.

The elderly, people on low incomes, adolescents and people with health problems have the most difficulty keeping out the heat. Some 44% struggle to stay cool indoors, while 49% are unable to find relief in their gardens or neighbourhood.

-

Recommendations include good ventilation, external blinds and heatproof housing for the elderly.

Large-scale research carried out by the RIVM health institute in 2021 has shown that one-third of all deaths caused by heat in the Netherlands can be ascribed to climate change.

“We know that people who have heart problems, for instance, are at greater risk of heat. It has always been the case that more people die when it is extremely hot. But climate change is exacerbating the effect,” RIVM climate researcher Joost van der Ree said at the time.

The Netherlands has been experiencing above average summer temperatures for June since 2017, with every year since setting a new record. The recent heatwave will make this June the hottest yet. “Spanish heat” is set to become a regular feature of the Dutch summer, experts have warned.

DJ, there are plans to build 900,000 new houses before 2040 to solve the housing crisis. That housing crisis -my view- is the outcome of bad politics...Old people can no longer move to housing better able to deal with their demands...Shortage of lower price houses did push up housing prices/costs...Neo-liberals even did sell public housing to foreign investors making matters even worse...

I live in an area with around 1 million people in a radius of 25 kilometer...divided over many municipalitis in different regions...Since profit is the main driver in housing -no longer public needs- we see less houses per m2 at much higher costs with less room for nature...

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/02/dutch-people-want-firm-clear-climate-policy-says-report[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/02/dutch-people-want-firm-clear-climate-policy-says-report 

DJ Use of public transport -in NL- is still under pre-pandemic level, car use may be 30% ABOVE pre pandemic level...In many countries there is not enough investment in public transport, bike lanes etc. Most of the population are willing to look for alternatives (for the expensive car, meat etc. -in part to save costs) but (tax) rules make it "hard" if not impossible...

[url]https://www.nioz.nl/en/news/dossier-warm-sea-and-ocean-water[/url] or https://www.nioz.nl/en/news/dossier-warm-sea-and-ocean-water;

Dossier: warm sea and ocean water

Publication date: Friday 30 June 2023
Global warming dominates global news. Here, rising atmospheric temperatures are usually the common thread. But of all the extra heat trapped by our greenhouse gas emissions, only 1 per cent remains in the air. The vast majority (89 per cent) disappears into the water of the world's oceans. The rest is locked up in land (6 per cent) and melting ice sheets (4 per cent). The result: warmer ocean water and more marine heat waves!

In this dossier, we highlight the different sides of all that warming seawater. The enormous amount of stored energy is influencing the weather. More precipitation is created by more evaporated water. And hurricanes also draw their energy from the warm ocean water.

Changes are also visible in biodiversity. Coral reefs and shellfish are getting above their critical temperature and die in more and more places. With this, their function as nurseries of marine biodiversity is also disappearing.

A changing distribution of heat in ocean water also affects currents. Ocean water flows because of wind, temperature and the difference in density of fresh meltwater or salty ocean water. More warm water at the surface, shifts these forces. The consequences of this are still far from clear.

DJ, Atlantic Ocean water seems to be unexpectedly hot...[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.650.html[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.650.html trying to follow statistics on the (Ant)Arctic, Greenland ice etc. 

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/03/2c-crossed.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/03/2c-crossed.html (march 13 2020) ;

It's time to stop denying how precarious the situation is.

Remember the Paris Agreement? In 2015, politicians pledged to hold the global temperature rise to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pledged they would try and limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Well, an analysis by Sam Carana shows that it was already more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial when the Paris Agreement was reached.

DJ, my non expert view; all that is left is damage control...Some countries (a.o. China) go for massive reforestation, renewable energy...but the effect of those steps NOW will take DECADES !!! to show any results in climate...A further SERIOUS rise in temperatures is "baked in"...

We can no longer avoid growth of deserts, massive loss of land/sea-ice, very serious public health crises killing tens of millions of (poor) people...

One of the reasons for BRIICSS+ is "the west talks to much without serious action"....countries like Pakistan, India, Indonesia, China, but also Russia, Brazil are hit hard by climate collapse. From extreme heat to wildfires...

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/could-earth-go-same-way-as-venus.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/could-earth-go-same-way-as-venus.html ;

The rise that has already unfolded, i.e. the rise from pre-industrial to 2020, could be as much as 2.3°C, as discussed above and at the pre-industrial page. Furthermore, the temperature rise is accelerating. In other words, Earth is already in the danger zone and the question remains what the implications are of a 3°C, 4°C and 5°C rise.

DJ...time could be a factor if countries did take action...Empty words do NOT help...the UK made XR/climate protests illegal, German "greens" promote war...Blowing up gas pipelines, dams etc, war in general, is further destroying the climate...blame-games do NOT help !

Here in NL july and august are (so far) the warmest months...some models see 30C+ temperatures -in a short wave- next weekend for NL. 

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_temperature_and_health[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature#Wet-bulb_temperature_and_health and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_climate_change_on_human_health 

We WILL !!! face water/food/logistic crises in many places SOON ! 

Ignoring this will only kill more millions...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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DJ, Pandemics, wars are "bad news" for human survival...Climate collapse however may soon show itself to be far worse...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6o6nma12vY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J6o6nma12vY Paul Beckwith/PB;

5,210 views  Jul 5, 2023

The jet stream waviness these days is utterly insane, and causing huge negative consequences for humanity. 

The main purpose of this video chat is to discuss a brand new peer reviewed paper just released last week that connects a huge high pressure dome that occurs often in summer months over Greenland with the ever increasing rapid snow cover melt over North America in the spring months, mostly May and June. 

The jet streams basically form an omega block, with exceptional high pressure, cloudless skies, and heat over Greenland, and extreme weather events associated with this jet stream pattern at lower latitudes. 

Arctic Temperature Amplification has greatly increased, and now main stream scientific papers and articles are saying it is 4x (they incorrectly said, en masse, that it was 2x for many years). 

One of the jet stream patterns that commonly establishes now is an omega block with a high pressure region over Greenland. 

Not only does this pattern lead to surface ice melt on Greenland doubling over the rates used in the large scale sophisticated climate models, but it is warming a large region of the North Atlantic Ocean, which is seeing SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) 5 to 6 C above previous highs, which is basically off the scale. 

With jet streams being much wavier and setting up persistent blocks, we are seeing very intense, widespread heatwaves around the planet, for example in Mexico and Texas, where temperatures have reached about 50 C and temperature/humidity conditions have essentially briefly reached wet bulb uninhabitable states. 

Heatwaves are occurring in numerous other places like China and India. 

Much of the boreal forest regions in Canada have had heatwaves resulting in uncontrollable unprecedented wildfires burning over 8 million hectares, or about 3% of Canada’s boreal forests. In the southern hemisphere, wavy jet streams are bringing extensive heat down to Antarctica, and sea ice extent has dropped off a cliff by 4 or 5 standard deviations below previous record lows. 

Add an El Niño to the equation, and it is obvious that numerous climate records will be obliterated over the next few years, and humanity is in for a very precarious and rough ride. 

Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I connect the dots on abrupt climate system change.

DJ A "Super el Nino" [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cxWf5yA9so[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2cxWf5yA9so may have started (temperature +2C above the norm)

So we face a "mega mix";

-Wet Bulbe temperatures (35C + 100% humidity + time will kill you) may show up in more places...people, animals simply get overheated and die...

-Of course extreme heat also not helping harvests...

-[url]https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230705-schiphol-grounds-hundreds-of-flights-as-record-storm-lashes-the-netherlands[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230705-schiphol-grounds-hundreds-of-flights-as-record-storm-lashes-the-netherlands extreme weather becomes normal...We only once before had a storm in july in NL...so this was the second one yesterday...

-"Wild"fires produce smoke damaging human organs hundreds of kilometers/miles from the fire...

-Maybe as a reminder; Ukraine may see extreme high/dry conditions...in combination with major war and lots of fuel it could result in mega burning...(with radio active waste from Tjernobil going into the atmosphere). 

[url]https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith[/url] or https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith has updates on twitter, 

[url]https://arcticrisk.org/alert-item/north-seas-alarming-temperature-rise-sparks-storm-warnings/[/url] or https://arcticrisk.org/alert-item/north-seas-alarming-temperature-rise-sparks-storm-warnings/ 

Arctic Sea Ice must be getting very low [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.650.html[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.650.html but melt is on its way...

Greenland [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3857.50.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3857.50.html#lastPost ;

July 4th

For a 8th day running melt affects more than 50% of Greenland, 7 days at more than 55%.

SMB losses for a 3rd day well above average, though accumulated SMB well above average still.

Sustained melt at this level in early July must be entering record territory.
Later a look at Greenland Today data - though their melt data seems to be somewhat lower than for DMI

and Antarctica-where it is supposed to be winter....[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.3500.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.3500.html#lastPost ;

Projections. (Table JAXA-Ant1)

Average remaining freeze (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in Sept 2023 of 16.01 million km2, 1.99 million km2 below the 2002 record low maximum of 18.01 million km2, which would be 1st lowest in the satellite record.

On the probability 2023 extent will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 18.01 million km2.
Current sea ice extent is 12.43 million km2, 5.57 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice extent gain from now to maximum is 3.58 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains from now need to be 1.99 million KM2, 56% above the average.
The maximum sea ice extent gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 4.2 million KM2, 17% above the average.
The probability of a new record low maximum in 2023 is therefore extremely high

DJ [url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 One would expect more storms over the oceans (Pacifix =2x Atlantic in seize)...so far that part of the collapse seems limited...

Jet streams going insane may bring extreme cold weather in one region while extreme heat/rain may show up in another (nearby) region...

It will further decrease healthcare capacity...decrease life expectency, increase risks for famine (even in the US-UK-EU...part of the problem income inequality).  Wars over water -with weapin/war industry making more profits- will increase...

---------------

If you think war or pandemics are bad-they are both related to climate collapse...Yes BRIICSS+ wants to become the #1 global player...US/NATO may even go nuclear to stop that...

We-as humans-have destroyed the planet we live on...damage control may be all there is left....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 06 2023 at 8:56am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 07 2023 at 11:14pm

[url]https://www.ccag.earth/about[/url] or https://www.ccag.earth/about Climate Crisis Advisery Group = C.C.A.G. 

We are an independent group of experts reflecting a wide range of academic disciplines, comprising 15 experts from 10 nations. CCAG members include leading authorities in climate science, carbon emissions, energy, environment, and natural resources. Some of our members also participate in governmental advisory groups. The function of CCAG is complementary to these other roles. All scientists have agreed to give up their time at no cost.

Read more about each of our members below. 

A video on how bad the situation is on Antarctica [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2WRb-MOFD0[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O2WRb-MOFD0 ;

Antarctica currently has very little sea ice – the lowest ever recorded. What are the causes and likely consequences of this reduction?

A comment;

Yes, you can invite people like me to be part of CCAG because I am a regenerative systems professional with a long record of accurate analysis WRT to climate - and other areas. I predicted there had to be a mechanism for Pacific heat to affect the arctic and predicted the 2016 low. (We'll almost certainly see another low extent in 2024 due to the El Nino.) 

Scripps Institute confirmed the existence of Pacific "heat bombs" in 2021.  

What to do? The fastest way to change, the lowest-hanging fruit, is to simply stop doing much of what we do. 

We must simplify, we must turn to regenerative farming/gardening. Simplification alone can reduce emissions 80%. 

Regenerative farming another 40%. That's negative emissions and can be achieved in a decade or less.  So long as people think we can just make everything electric, we will continue to fail.

DJ, limiting (air)travel is limiting pandemics/disease spread...Less meat is less room for diseases in animals we only "produce" to eat them....Smaller families-better education for next generations also would have helped...

[url]https://www.clubofrome.org/[/url] or https://www.clubofrome.org/ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome#The_Limits_to_Growth[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Club_of_Rome#The_Limits_to_Growth ;

The Club of Rome stimulated considerable public attention with the first report to the club, The Limits to Growth.[4] Published in 1972, its computer simulations suggested that economic growth could not continue indefinitely because of resource depletion. The 1973 oil crisis increased public concern about this problem. The report went on to sell 30 million copies in more than 30 languages, making it the best-selling environmental book in history.[5]

Even before The Limits to Growth was published, Eduard Pestel and Mihajlo Mesarovic of Case Western Reserve University had begun work on a far more elaborate model (it distinguished ten world regions and involved 200,000 equations compared with 1,000 in the Meadows model). The research had the full support of the club and its final publication, Mankind at the Turning Point was accepted as the official "second report" to the Club of Rome in 1974.[6][7] In addition to providing a more refined regional breakdown, Pestel and Mesarovic had succeeded in integrating social as well as technical data. The second report revised the scenarios of the original Limits to Growth and gave a more optimistic prognosis for the future of the environment, noting that many of the factors involved were within human control and therefore that environmental and economic catastrophe were preventable or avoidable.

DJ...lots of people have been warning for the present crises....(because we face not just one crisis...)...some going back more than 100 years [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#First_calculations_of_greenhouse_effect,_1896[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_climate_change_science#First_calculations_of_greenhouse_effect,_1896 

Now all that is left is damage control...trying to buy time so "some people may survive and do better"...may be the best available option...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 08 2023 at 11:42pm

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/08/hottest-day-year-temperatures-343-degrees-netherlands[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/08/hottest-day-year-temperatures-343-degrees-netherlands ;

It is officially the warmest July 8 since measurements began in 1901, Weeronline reports. At 3:10 p.m., the temperature in De Bilt rose to 31.9 degrees. The old record was 31.6 degrees, measured in 1959.

It is also the hottest day of the year so far. Until Saturday, June 11 was the hottest day, when it was 32.2 degrees in Hoek van Holland.

In general, it is also quite warm in the rest of the country, with afternoon temperatures well above 30 degrees. At 2:30 p.m., for instance, the temperature in Eindhoven reached 34.3 degrees, Weeronline reports. Never before has it been so warm at a KNMI measuring station on July 8. The previous record for this date was set in Gilze-Rijen in 1959.

In large parts of the country, it was tropically warm with 29 to 34 degrees. Only on the Wadden Islands, the temperature remained below the 30-degree mark. According to the weather service, the hot weather is caused by a southeast wind that blows very warm and dry air from the continent into the Netherlands.

DJ...in lots of places it is even hotter...For the US; [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/giant-dust-cloud-south-us-another-round-canadian-wildfire-smoke-northeast[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/giant-dust-cloud-south-us-another-round-canadian-wildfire-smoke-northeast ;

AccuWeather meteorologists say massive dust clouds from Africa's Sahara Desert will traverse the Caribbean and the southeastern US this weekend. 

"Saharan dust is common most years across parts of the Atlantic basin and sometimes spreads as far west as the Caribbean and Florida," said AccuWeather Director of Forecast Operations Dan DePodwin.

NOAA's weather satellites have spotted two dust plumes. The first is over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico. There's an even larger one behind it.

-

Simultaneously, forecast models from The Weather Channel show the possibility that the third round of Canadian wildfire smoke will blanket parts of the Northeast. 

but a lot of "wildfires" in many places result in poor air quality increasing the health/infection of respitory system risks.. (With ZH ending its story climate collapse is not real...)

For BeNeLux [url]https://www.estofex.org/[/url] or https://www.estofex.org/ ;

A level 2 was issued across the eastern Benelux and Northwest Germany for severe wind gusts, large hail, and excessive rainfall.

DISCUSSION

France, Benelux, Germany, Switzerland...

Model guidance suggests that an elongated zone of convergent winds, related to a cold front, will stretch from the northern Netherlands to southwestern France. Substantial MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg will build in response to the diurnal heating of the most low-level air mass near this boundary. There, approximately 20 m/s of deep-layer shear will be present, suggesting that storms will be well-organized.

In particular, across the level 2 area, quite high storm coverage is simulated. The severe risk will be large (2-5 cm) hail with any more isolated storms, but most convection-allowing models do simulate a quick transition into a linear mode, which would elevate the wind risk. These models suggest the highest risk of wind gusts will develop in case a bow echo propagating north-northeastward along the boundary materializes. However, this does not seem to be the most likely scenario. Regardless of the scenario, scattered severe wind reports are likely, but in case of such a bow echo wind speeds may become extreme and exceed 32 m/s.

Overnight the storms should gradually diminish in intensity and move eastward across Germany and the North Sea into Denmark.

DJ, during the process the weather "situation" may develop to "code red/level 3" ;

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_European_floods ;

Weather events[edit]

Between 12 and 15 July 2021, heavy rain fell across the United Kingdom, western Germany, and neighbouring Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg. A storm complex moved east from France into Germany and stalled over the region for two days. Precipitation was intense in the East of Belgium, with 271.5 millimetres (10.69 in) of rain over 48 hours in Jalhay and 217 millimetres (8.5 in) over 48 hours in Spa. Heavy rainfall was also seen in the south of North Rhine-Westphalia and north of Rhineland-Palatinate in Germany where accumulations averaged 100 to 150 mm (3.9 to 5.9 in) in 24 hours, equivalent to more than a month's worth of rain. In Reifferscheid, 207 mm (8.1 in) fell within a nine-hour period while Cologne observed 154 mm (6.1 in) in 24 hours. Some of the affected regions may not have seen rainfall of this magnitude in the last 1,000 years.[14] Floods started in Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland on 14 July 2021 after record rainfall across western Europe caused multiple rivers to burst their banks.[15]

The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) issued alerts of life-threatening floods in advance, which, although very vague, were delivered to national authorities.[16]

Extreme weather killed 243 people in NW Europe almost two years ago...it is very unpredictable...hills may results in lower lying grounds getting flash floods...

Hail 2-5 cm may destroy harvests/glass houses further damaging food production. 

[url]https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL ;

WHY IS THE TEMPERATURE RISING SO FAST? 
1. Emissions are high and greenhouse gas levels keep rising. 
2. We did come out of a La Niña that has for years been suppressing temperatures and we are now in an El Niño. Temperature anomalies can be very high during an El Niño. February 2016 on land was 3.28°C (5.904°F) hotter than 1880-1896, and 3.68°C (6.624°F) hotter compared to February 1880 on land. Note that 1880-1896 is not pre-industrial, the rise will be even larger when using a genuinely pre-industrial base. A 2023 study led by Tao Lian predicts the current El Niño to be strong. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius.
3. The June 2023 number of sunspots is more than twice as high as predicted. If this trend continues, the rise in sunspots forcing from May 2020 to July 2025 may well make a difference of more than 0.25°C, a recent analysis found.
4. The 2022 Tonga submarine volcano eruption did add a huge amount of water vapor to the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post. Since water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, this is further contributing to speed up the temperature rise. A 2023 study calculates that the submarine volcano eruption near Tonga in January 2022 will have a warming effect of 0.12 Watts/m² over the next few years.
5. There are further things that contribute to the temperature rise, such as reductions of Sahara dust and of sulfur aerosols co-emitted with fossil fuel combustion that previously masked the temperature rise. 
This dire situation spells bad news regarding the temperature rise to come, the more so since, on top of these dire conditions, there are feedbacks and further developments that make the outlook even more threatening. 

DJ, denial of problems-"politics" is the best way to worsen the climate crisis...Some political fools want to get rich by pushing trillions into war industry and massive killing !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 11 2023 at 12:05am

DJ, There is growing alarm on the very bad (sea)ice Antarctic situation...Antarctica has now 60x NL  seize of sea ice less...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/arctic-sea-ice-july-2023.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/arctic-sea-ice-july-2023.html ;

As the globe on the left shows, on July 9, 2023, sea surface temperatures as high as 13.5°C or 56.4°F were recorded at a location where the Mackenzie River flows into the Arctic Ocean (green circle). The globe at the center shows that sea surface temperature anomalies as high as 13.2°C or 23.7°F were recorded that day in the area marked by the green circle. Hot water from rivers ending in the Arctic Ocean is one way the water heats up.

The water of the Arctic Ocean also receives direct heat from sunlight. The globe on the right shows that on July 9, 2023, a temperature of 33°C or 91.3°F was recorded in Canada near the Arctic Ocean and near the Mackenzie River (green circle), with the heatwave on land extending over the Arctic Ocean.

Furthermore, heat is entering the Arctic Ocean from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, melting the sea ice from below. The image below, created with Climate Reanalyzer images, shows that the North Atlantic sea surface temperature was 24°C on July 8, 2023 (black), a full 1°C above the 23°C recorded on July 8, 2022 (orange).

The above image also shows that a record high temperature was reached on the North Atlantic of 24.9°C on September 4, 2022.

The 2022 temperatures were reached while La Niña was suppressing temperatures, whereas El Niño is now pushing up temperatures, so even higher temperatures can be expected in September this year.

Since Arctic sea ice typically reaches a minimum extent for the year about mid-September, there still are a few weeks of melting to go this year.

Arctic sea ice is getting very thin. The image on the right, adapted from Uni of Bremen, shows the sea ice thickness in cm on July 8, 2023.

The dire situation is getting more dire every day, calling for a Climate Emergency Declaration and implementation of comprehensive and effective action, as described in the Climate Plan with an update at Transforming Society.

A look at [url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html shows how much governments are failing to protect the planet...We may be Venus-like within decades...

[url]https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11;-23;1&l=temperature-2m&t=20230713/1900[/url] or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11;-23;1&l=temperature-2m&t=20230713/1900 showing how much to high temperatures reach the Arctic not only in Canada/Alaska but also East Siberia, Scandinavia...

-----------








Air temps as low as 34 °C (92 F) cause a steady increase in heart rate under humid conditions. Cardiovascular strain occurs even before a person’s internal temp starts to rise. There's a slew of new science on the heart’s struggles when exposed to heat.

DJ, Climate change may kill you by overheating...[url]https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-z[/url] or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02419-z ;

Over 70,000 excess deaths occurred in Europe during the summer of 2003. The resulting societal awareness led to the design and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect at-risk populations. We aimed to quantify heat-related mortality burden during the summer of 2022, the hottest season on record in Europe. We analyzed the Eurostat mortality database, which includes 45,184,044 counts of death from 823 contiguous regions in 35 European countries, representing the whole population of over 543 million people. We estimated 61,672 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 37,643–86,807) heat-related deaths in Europe between 30 May and 4 September 2022. Italy (18,010 deaths; 95% CI = 13,793–22,225), Spain (11,324; 95% CI = 7,908–14,880) and Germany (8,173; 95% CI = 5,374–11,018) had the highest summer heat-related mortality numbers, while Italy (295 deaths per million, 95% CI = 226–364), Greece (280, 95% CI = 201–355), Spain (237, 95% CI = 166–312) and Portugal (211, 95% CI = 162–255) had the highest heat-related mortality rates. Relative to population, we estimated 56% more heat-related deaths in women than men, with higher rates in men aged 0–64 (+41%) and 65–79 (+14%) years, and in women aged 80+ years (+27%). Our results call for a reevaluation and strengthening of existing heat surveillance platforms, prevention plans and long-term adaptation strategies.

This year, also other places, could see over 1 million people dying from heat-stress...Of course water/food/logistic problems kill many more...I am amzed [url]https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/[/url] or https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ has no excess deaths from heat waves in the south of Europe...

[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.650.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.650.html#lastPost still has Arctic (Sea) Ice now at #14 (!!!) position...quality of ice, thickness, multi-year ice, however tells a much worse story...








China and Japan are under terribly hot and muggy conditions with >40C in hundreds stations in China and above 38C in Japan. Humidity makes the heat unbearable in both capitals Beijing and Tokyo today. But watch what it's coming to China next:50C might hit Turfan in some days.

A look at [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3857.100.html[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3857.100.html ;

The cumulative melt and the SMB (Surface Mass Balance) losses during the melt season were so high that no year since has been anywhere close. An extreme extreme outlier.

DMI have the data, but have not published the daily Melt and SMB data for the years before 2017. They have plans to do so, but no funding. Budget on a shoestring syndrome.

Last EDIT: Despite that extraordinary melt, over the DMI year Sept to Aug precipitation exceeded melt+runoff, so the SMB increased but by much less than average. The trend is for melt to increase but also precipitation, so annual SMB increase is expected to increase further until a tipping point is reached, caused by higher melt and more precipitation falling as rain on snow events. Someone needs to cough up funding so DMI can do more including more published data.

DJ, Greenland may see massive melt...but also high snowfall...

Antarctica; [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.3550.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.3550.html#lastPost ;

On the probability 2023 sea ice area will set a new record low maximum
The current record low maximum  in 2002  is 14.16 million km2.
Current sea ice area is 9.72 million km2, 4.44 million km2 below the record low maximum.
Average sea ice area gain from now to maximum is 2.55 million km2.
To reach the current record low maximum, sea ice gains need to be 1.89 million KM2, 74%, above the average.
The maximum sea ice area gain in the years 2006 to 2022 was 3.86 million KM2, 51% above the average. This was in 2007, and was pretty much an outlier
The probability of a new record low maximum sea ice area in 2023 is therefore high

a look at [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1760.0;attach=377266;image[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=1760.0;attach=377266;image Thwaites glacier may give some indications on what to expect of glaciers in many places...

High temperatures in the Alps-Central Europe may melt the ice keeping rocks glued together in mountain area's...

-DJ-The climate collapse is increasing in speed...we are still in the early phase of summer 23...the worst is still to come !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 14 2023 at 12:13am







11th July is World Population Day. It was first marked in 1990, when world population was 5.2bn. Today, 33 years later, it's over 8 billion! .. an increase of more than 50% in one generation. Is it any wonder that the Earth's ecosystem is failing under the weight of human demand?

DJ, if every human does not change eating meat, mobility demands (cars, planes) we can not survive....

[url]https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith[/url] or https://twitter.com/PaulHBeckwith lots of info on climate collapse...so has [url]https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL ...parts of US may reach 120F/50C...parts of southern Europe expected to be over 100F/40C...even worse [url]https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11;-23;1&l=temperature-2m&t=20230715/0200[/url] or https://www.ventusky.com/?p=11;-23;1&l=temperature-2m&t=20230715/0200 may indicate East Siberia, Norway, Alaska/Canada coast with Arctic Ocean could see 20C/70F+ temperatures daily....

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/12/prepare-now-extreme-heat-says-red-cross-appeal-governments-worldwide[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/12/prepare-now-extreme-heat-says-red-cross-appeal-governments-worldwide ;

The Red Cross is calling on governments to prepare for extreme heat. The aid organization is advocating for implementing measures now, saying that extreme heat is no longer at arm's length. "If we don't adapt, we can expect an unprecedented increase in death rates from that heat in the coming years," said Fleur Monasso, program manager at the Red Cross Climate Center in The Hague.

Earlier this week, a study was published that showed that more than 61,000 people died as a result of the heat during the European summer last year. If nothing is done to protect people from rising temperatures, about 68,000 people will die from heat each summer in Europe by 2030, the researchers estimated.

That number will continue to increase in subsequent years.

DJ, this may be even over optimistic...Ice is cooling the planet...and that ice is melting high speed in many places...

-----------






Eric Topol

@EricTopol
·
From a new preprint of a  2-year, prospective follow-up cohort of unvaccinated individuals with Covid in Spain "Recovery is extremely rare [from #LongCovid] during the first 2 years [full = 7.6%], posing a major challenge to healthcare systems." https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4505315

So we may have tens of millions -if not hundreds of millions- of people dealing with the long term effects of catching CoViD...

[url]https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/finnish-food-authority-statement-on.html[/url] or https://afludiary.blogspot.com/2023/07/finnish-food-authority-statement-on.html (etc)

Both CoViD and H5N1 is now spreading and mutating in mammals...

The sea/ocean is getting that warm in many places oxygen levels become to low for lots of sea life...So one may see interaction between less water/air quality-resulting in more vulnerability for infections-massive die-off of sea life...We are allready in a mass extinction event ! 

Poor air quality in combination with long/chronic CoViD (and aging/bad health) -wet bulb temperatures- could kill millions THIS YEAR !!!

[url]https://www.worldometers.info/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/ now has twice as many births as deaths per day worldwide...That pattern soon may change...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2023 at 5:09am

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/m-7-4-earthquake-off-alaska-coast-tsunami-warning-issued[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/news-nation/m-7-4-earthquake-off-alaska-coast-tsunami-warning-issued ...less alarming [url]https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/16/americas/alaska-earthquake-tsunami-advisory/index.html[/url] or https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/16/americas/alaska-earthquake-tsunami-advisory/index.html ;

A tsunami advisory issued after a magnitude 7.2 earthquake struck off the coast of Alaska late Saturday has since been canceled, officials said.

The earthquake hit offshore about 55 miles southwest from Sand Point, Alaska, at a depth of 13 mi. on Saturday around 10:48 p.m. local (2:48  a.m. ET), according to the US Tsunami Warning Center.

The quake prompted a brief tsunami warning for parts of Alaska near the Aleutian islands, extending from Unimak Pass to Kennedy Entrance, before being revised to a tsunami advisory. A small tsunami was later observed up to 0.5 feet in elevation at Sand Point and King Cove, Alaska.


There is no tsunami threat for other Pacific coasts in the US and Canada, the advisory said.

The Alaska Volcano Observatory provided a threat notice for the Shishaldin volcano after it sent up a plume of ash earlier Saturday, according to a social media post.

There is a “watch” currently in effect for the Shishaldin volcano. According to the observatory, seismic tremor aptitudes began to increase at around 5 p.m. local.

DJ, what part of this quake may have climate collapse links ? Or is there no link at all ? 

Another "claim" is one could expect a "major" earthquake to see a follow up on the other side of the globe...What could be seen here as "the other side of the globe"? New Zealand-Fiji is "only south" ...south part of the Pacific ring of fire...Will South Africa region see some sort of reaction ? 

-------

[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 Hot ocean water so far did not mean lots of hurricanes 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqzQpdhwPjY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqzQpdhwPjY El Nino may bring lots of wind shear to the Atlantic-different winds at different heights. Also Sahara-dust/dry air could hinder formation of hurricanes...But there could be signs el Nino is not that strong-resulting in less wind shear...increasing risks record hot ocean waters will feed major hurricanes this season..And the long term trend is hurricanes go from West Africa to the US/central America and some of them may go north and then move east towards Greenland/Europe...So the chances for Western Europe being affected by an Atlantic hurricane is growing...it may also increase heat transport towards the Arctic...

------------

Among lots of other "weather news" [url]https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230716001153315?section=national/national[/url] or https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20230716001153315?section=national/national ;

SEOUL, July 16 (Yonhap) -- Flooding and landslides caused by heavy rains have killed 37 people nationwide and left nine people missing, while thousands have evacuated their homes due to rain damage, authorities said Sunday.

The Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters said 37 people had reportedly been killed in the aftermath of the heavy rains that have pounded the country since last week, while nine others remained missing as of 6 a.m.

The death toll includes nine bodies authorities recovered from a bus trapped in a flooded underground tunnel in the central town of Osong.

Flooding a.o. in the news in New Delhi-India, parts of the US...

--------------

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-large-radiation-spike-in-eastern-ukraine[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/breaking-news-large-radiation-spike-in-eastern-ukraine  with [url]https://remap.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Advanced.aspx[/url] or https://remap.jrc.ec.europa.eu/Advanced.aspx 

UA34304
Kolomak

back to normal...

UA33621
Kobeliaky 

still showing abnormalities tough...less extreme...(depleted uranium ammunition used by NATO ? Radio-activa NATO storage hit by Russiam missiles ?) ) 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2023 at 11:58pm

"Here comes the rain again" to New York...it is NOT "mother nature" it is climate collapse...Canada did see a record level of wild fires, 2,5 times the seize of NL this year was burned...air quality in Canada, US "problematic"....soot ending up on arctic ice...

In the south of Europe temperatures may end up  above 40C/110F later in this week...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tua4p9ns2JY[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tua4p9ns2JY ; Jason Box

It’s not just flooding in Vermont, Japan, Mexico, new study documents deluge rains to Greenland Article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/met.2134 We add a new term to the atmospheric river vocabulary, “rapids” Copernicus, Arctic, Regional, Reanalysis video: ”What is the Copernicus Arctic Regional Reanalysis?   • What is the Coper...   2021 August rain study videos Long version   • Greenland Ice She...   Short version   • Greenland Ice She...   Article: Box, J. E., Wehrlé, A., van As, D., Fausto, R. S., Kjeldsen, K. K., Dachauer, A., Ahlstrøm, A. P., and Picard, G., (2022). Greenland ice sheet rainfall, heat and albedo feedback impacts from the mid-August 2021 atmospheric River. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2021GL097356. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097356

DJ, rivers-in-the-sky melting ice in Greenland, Antarctica...wind eroding ice and snow...rain seeking into ice holes...

I used to believe volcanoes may slow down climate collapse...water vapor from volcanic eruptions could increase climate collapse...Also land-ice  and glaciersflowing into the ocean may decrease temperatures nearby for some time...the effect of slowing down climate collapse is not strong enough...

We are in very serious troubles...dealing with both the global climate and health crises should be the only priority...the "political crisis" in the US, UK, however only is making matters worse and keep pushing us towards a nuclear war we can not survive...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 21 2023 at 12:00am

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/planetary-inferno-nero-fiddles-while-rome-burns.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/planetary-inferno-nero-fiddles-while-rome-burns.html ;

The fast rise in global warming manifested by current extreme weather events betrays a dangerous underestimation of the Earth’s liveable climate, while governments ignore climate science, claim to set limits on domestic emissions, but allow major export of fossil fuels and emissions worldwide on a scale threatening life on Earth. 

With current policies, there appear to exist few limits on global carbon emissions, as reported by Rogner (1997)“The global fossil resource base is abundant and is estimated at approximately 5000 Gt (billion tons). Compared to current global primary energy use of some 10 Gt per year, this amount is certainly sufficient to fuel the world economy through the twenty-first century”.

 According to these estimates, future production of coal, oil and gas render a mass extinction of advanced species more than likely.

DJ [url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/07/dutch-train-tickets-are-pricey-compared-with-other-eu-countries/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/07/dutch-train-tickets-are-pricey-compared-with-other-eu-countries/  Greenpeace [url]https://www.greenpeace.org/nl/greenpeace/59556/treintickets-gemiddeld-twee-keer-zo-duur-als-vliegen/[/url] or https://www.greenpeace.org/nl/greenpeace/59556/treintickets-gemiddeld-twee-keer-zo-duur-als-vliegen/ (in English) did look at the costs of trains compared to planes...Trains are much more tax-ed...while planes-even on short distances- do not have to pay AVT, tax on fuel etc...poluting over 5x as much as trains...

DJ-Politics has become empty bla-bla...an insult to voters ! In Germany the "green party" could get into government but insulted their voters as a bunch of crazy war mongers...(I had high hopes of German Greens...I am very, very disappointed in them !!!). 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/20/nl-gets-2-tropical-days-every-degree-warming-mediterranean-warming-alarmingly[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/20/nl-gets-2-tropical-days-every-degree-warming-mediterranean-warming-alarmingly ;

The Netherlands gets two extra tropical days for every degree of global warming, the meteorological institute KNMI reported on Thursday, one day after the Spanish weather institute Aemet raised the alarm about the increasing temperatures of the Mediterranean Sea.

Spain is in the midst of its third heatwave this year. The average temperature of the Mediterranean Sea at the Spanish coast reached 24.6 degrees this month - 2.2 degrees higher than typical for this time of year, Aemet reported. The seawater in Spain hasn’t been this hot since measurements started in 1940.


The Netherlands has had three tropical days - when thermometers top 30 degrees Celsius at the national weather station in De Bilt - so far this summer. A hundred years ago, the average was one tropical day per summer. Now it’s already 4.5, the KNMI said.

“A relatively small warming causes a relatively rapid increase in the number of hot days,” the KNMI said. Summers in the Netherlands have become 2 degrees warmer. “The number of tropical days has increased by more than a factor of four.”


The increase in hot days can be seen throughout Europe and is currently very visible in Spain with its third heatwave. Weather agency Aemet stressed that the record for the warmest seawater wasn’t broken by a little. It was broken by a lot, spokesperson Ruben del Campo told the press agency AFP. The previous record was 24 degrees Celsius in 2015. The new record is 24.6, and the summer is far from over.

Looking at averages doesn’t make you realize the whole story, ecologist Anieke van Leeuwen of the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ) told NOS. “If you only look at the average, it seems like small values. But an average goes up because there are more days with much higher temperatures. And places that are much warmer. With the climate crisis we are in now, extremes are becoming more and more common.”

In the southeast of Spain, sea temperatures have risen to 28 degrees in some places. The measuring point near the Balearic Islands even recorded 29 degrees. The high water temperatures have a significant impact on marine life. But outside the water, it also means that ambient temperatures cool down very little at night.

“If we want to limit a further increase in heat, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced and CO2 must be removed from the air,” the KNMI stressed.

DJ...and we do NOT !!!! have the technology to remove CO2 from the air on any major scale other than trees....

With atmospheric CO₂ levels reaching 423 parts per million, according to James Hansen and colleagues humanity is facing a new Frontier, marked by intense heatwaves, more than vindicating warnings by climate scientists over the last 40 years or so. Within less than a century, the levels of CO₂ and temperatures have risen to levels of the Miocene (23.03–5.33 million years ago), with implications for sea level rise (Spratt, 2023). Hominids, living during glacial to inter-glacial periods, rarely had to endure mean temperatures higher than 50°C, which are increasingly common at present. Governments, busy subsidizing new coal mines and oil and gas wells and arming to the teeth for nuclear war, appear to be oblivious to the lessons of the last great world wars.

we need a "revolution" to avoid the "end game scenario" if that still is possible...

There was a time when kings and generals would fall on their sword when they were defeated, or when their faith in their gods collapsed. Nowadays so-called leaders, assuming opportunistic positions, betray the defence of their own people and of nature, protecting or advancing their own careers. The voices of climate scientists have become subdued, ignored or non-existent. There may not be too many historians to document the 20-21ˢᵗ centuries crimes against humanity and against nature.
DJ, climate crisis=food crisis= health crisis= global war... It is all linked !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 22 2023 at 1:48am

[url]https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/19/climate-crisis-james-hansen-scientist-warning[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jul/19/climate-crisis-james-hansen-scientist-warning ;

Scientists have estimated, through reconstructions based on evidence gathered via ice cores, tree rings and sediment deposits, that the current surge in heating has already brought global temperatures to levels not seen on Earth since about 125,000 years ago, before the last ice age.

“We quite possibly are already living in a climate that no human has lived through before and we are certainly living in a climate that no human has lived in since before the birth of agriculture,” said Bob Kopp, a climate scientist at Rutgers University.

Should global temperatures rise by a further 1C or more, which is widely predicted to happen by the end of the century barring a drastic reduction in emissions, Huber said Hansen was “broadly correct” that the world will be plunged into the sort of warmth not seen since 1-3m years ago, a period of time called the Pliocene.

“That is a radically different world,” said Huber of an epoch in which it was warm enough for beech trees to grow near the south pole and sea levels were about 20 meters higher than now, which would today drown most coastal cities.

A look at [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Ancient_and_post-classical_history[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Ancient_and_post-classical_history 

Estimates of the population of the world at the time agriculture emerged in around 10,000 BC have ranged between 1 million and 15 million.[16][17] Even earlier, genetic evidence suggests humans may have gone through a population bottleneck of between 1,000 and 10,000 people about 70,000 BC, according to the now largely discredited Toba catastrophe theory. By contrast, it is estimated that around 50–60 million people lived in the combined eastern and western Roman Empire in the 4th century AD.[18]

The Plague of Justinian caused Europe's population to drop by around 50% between the 6th and 8th centuries AD.[19] The population of Europe was more than 70 million in 1340.[20] From 1340 to 1400, the world's population fell from an estimated 443 million to 350–375 million,[21] with the Indian subcontinent suffering the most tremendous loss and Europe suffering the Black Death pandemic;[22] it took 200 years for European population figures to recover.[23] The population of China decreased from 123 million in 1200 to 65 million in 1393,[24] presumably from a combination of Mongol invasions, famine, and plague.[25]

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#/media/File:Illustration_of_contemporary_and_past_human_populations_Our_World_in_Data.png[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#/media/File:Illustration_of_contemporary_and_past_human_populations_Our_World_in_Data.png 

In 1990 global (human) population was 5,2 billion...in 2022 we did pass 8 billion people [url]https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/[/url] or https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ moving towards 8,050 million within a few weeks...All the time we knew overpopulation was a major problem-but we failed to stop it...

So the climate may be moving towards an earth with only a few million people - while population for now keeps growing 8 billion +....We have to change food production (reduce meat consumption). 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/pfizer-plant-damaged-tornado-could-worsen-nationwide-drug-shortage-crisis[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/pfizer-plant-damaged-tornado-could-worsen-nationwide-drug-shortage-crisis Climate disasters are already decreasing production/logistics for essentials; water, food, pharma..."Politics" investing in war(industry)...NOT in solutions...

Dengue, malaria etc. are climate related-and expected to become major problems soon...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 24 2023 at 10:08pm

Wildfires in a.o. Greece, Algeria, Tunesia resulting in mass evacuations of both tourists and population-destroying tourism...But also destroying agriculture, forests, wildlife...Temperatures often 40C+...some places may even see 50C+...wind, drought, create an explosive mixture...

Here in NL it is "cold" 20C, wind, rain...an extreme in the other direction...

[url]https://www.estofex.org/[/url] or https://www.estofex.org/ ;

A level 3 was issued across Austria, Northwest Hungary, and western Slovakia mainly for damaging winds and very large hail, and to a lesser extent for very heavy rainfall.

A level 3 was issued across northern Italy, northern Slovenia, and extreme southern Austria for very large to giant hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, and to a lesser extent for very heavy rainfall.

A level 2 was issued across a larger area surrounding the level 3 for all hazards, particularly large hail, and severe wind.

DJ, hail becoming blocks of -hand seize- ice...extreme rain in a short time...destroying harvests, buildings...wounding/killing people...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nagmRzCMEVM&t=1s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nagmRzCMEVM&t=1s Jason Box on extreme rain/melt in Greenland...

a data dive reveals parts of Greenland have record setting melt losses

DJ, 3 km thick ice may push parts of Greenland 1 km downward...Less ice pressure may not only result in "lifting" of the underlying landmass-creating seismic activity...very likely also volcanic activity could get more chances...So far the increase of Greenland ice melt did add <1 mm per year to sea level rise...Melting ice reaching the ocean did see the sea around Greenland getting colder...this year influx of warm ocean water is enough to undo the influx of meltwater in sea temperatures...

There should be no doubt that rapid "climate change" will worsen health for many species increasing even more pandemic risks...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 28 2023 at 12:12am

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html ;On July 25, 2023, the North Atlantic sea surface reached a temperature of 24.9°C, a record high in a tie with early September 2022. In previous years, a La Niña was suppressing temperatures, whereas El Niño is now pushing up temperatures. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its minimum extent about half September. We are facing huge sea ice loss over the coming weeks.

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5fqYfyJ_ZQ[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P5fqYfyJ_ZQ ;

The Climate Crisis Is Also A Health Crisis

As extreme weather including heatwaves intensifies, CCAG's world-leading climate experts and guests explore how the climate crisis is affecting health. Professor Mark Maslin opens our discussion with a keynote presentation. Hosted by climate justice activist Mitzi Jonelle Tan.

from [url]https://ccag.earth/about[/url] or https://ccag.earth/about ;  Climate Crisis Advisery Group

We are an independent group of experts reflecting a wide range of academic disciplines, comprising 15 experts from 10 nations. CCAG members include leading authorities in climate science, carbon emissions, energy, environment, and natural resources. Some of our members also participate in governmental advisory groups. The function of CCAG is complementary to these other roles. All scientists have agreed to give up their time at no cost.

DJ, Maybe "informed people" should try to get a form of "global citizenship"....Politics/governments fail on global problems...from food and water safety to global health...

In the CCAG video also 35C and 100% humidity can kill you within hours...because heat can not find a way out of your body if you can not cool it with water, air-co etc. Food, higher sea level, may be the longer term problems...

[url]https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/july-2023-set-be-hottest-month-record[/url] or https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/july-2023-set-be-hottest-month-record ;

Bonn and Geneva, 27/07/2023 (Copernicus and WMO) - According to ERA5 data from the EU-funded Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), the first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period on record and the month is on track to be the hottest July and the hottest month on record. These temperatures have been related to heatwaves in large parts of North America, Asia and Europe, which along with wildfires in countries including Canada and Greece, have had major impacts on people’s health, the environment and economies.

« We don’t have to wait for the end of the month to know this. Short of a mini-Ice Age over the next days, July 2023 will shatter records across the board, » said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.

« According to the data released today, July has already seen the hottest three-week period ever recorded; the three hottest days on record; and the highest-ever ocean temperatures for this time of year, » Mr Guterres told journalists at UN headquarters in New York.

« For vast parts of North America, Asia, Africa and Europe – it is a cruel summer. For the entire planet, it is a disaster. And for scientists, it is unequivocal – humans are to blame.
All this is entirely consistent with predictions and repeated warnings. The only surprise is the speed of the change, » said Mr Guterres.

On July 6, the daily average global mean surface air temperature surpassed the record set in August 2016, making it the hottest day on record, with July 5 and July 7 shortly behind. The first three weeks of July have been the warmest three-week period on record. Global mean temperature temporarily exceeded the 1.5° Celsius threshold above preindustrial level during the first and third week of the month (within observational error). Since May, the global average sea surface temperature* has been well above previously observed values for the time of the year; contributing to the exceptionally warm July.It is extremely likely that July 2023 will be the hottest July and also the hottest month on record, following on from the hottest June on record. According to ERA5 data the previous hottest month on record was July 2019. Complete ERA5 data for July will be available and published by C3S in their upcoming monthly bulletin on August 8.

It is extremely likely that July 2023 will be the hottest July and also the hottest month on record, following on from the hottest June on record

DJ, CO2 and some other gasses in the atmosphere are able to store heat "better". Ocean water so far did absorp over 90% of increased heat...at a certain moment the sea water heat will increase heating up the atmosphere also...A turning point can result in coastal area's getting warmer than inland area's...

Overheating may kill lots of people and animals soon...

However; El Nino may increase shear winds limiting hurricane formation on the Atlantic. Also sahara-dust over the Atlantic also could limit extreme storms...Both sahara-dust and wild fire smoke do worsen air quality. 

With tens of millions of people dealing with long CoViD health issues worsening air quality may further increase excess deaths. 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Let me connect [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKEtLdfPQLk[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKEtLdfPQLk Democracy Now! ;

The movie Oppenheimer about the "father of the atomic bomb" focuses on J. Robert Oppenheimer's conflicted feelings about the weapons of mass destruction he helped unleash on the world, and how officials ignored those concerns after World War II as the Cold War started an arms race. Journalist Greg Mitchell says that while the film is well made and worth seeing, "the omissions are quite serious." He says there is little mention of the dangers of radiation and no focus on the impact of the bomb on its victims in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The film also does not question the necessity of using the bomb in the first place, upholding the "official narrative … that has held sway since 1945," says Mitchell. 

with The Duran [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYvqzybt5Tw&t=12s[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYvqzybt5Tw&t=12s ;

Counter-offensive reboot. Regime change in Moscow still the goal

DJ....there are claims there is still "diplomacy" between the US and Russia; former diplomats telling the Russian government two things;

-Putin has to go

-Russia has to break ties with China

Somehow western "politics/media" are surprised "US diplomacy" is not a success for the NATO-west...With j.biden increasingly in legal problems-even with the US "justice department" trying to ignore all the evidence against the "biden crime family"...v.-f..k the EU-nuland did get promoted....She will be telling blinken what to do...or does she de facto run the US ? 

[url]https://tass.com/politics/1653919[/url] or https://tass.com/politics/1653919 ;

Addressing the African leaders, the Russian president said: "Your approach, your ideas - all this echoes the points of the Chinese peace plan for Ukrainian settlement, presented in February"

DJ...however the real problem is a US run by the insane ...with lots of nuclear weapons...The major job -for BRICS, EU, US citizens,- is to get someone with some intellect running the US...

The US is pumping weapons into Taiwan-part of China...Russia-Iran-China may increase "military cooperation" with Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela...

I do discuss this in NATO-BRICS conflict but the insanity in "NATO-land" only seems to get worse...with another Ukraine army destroyed...It may be not "if" but "when" will j.biden go nuclear ? 

--------------

Paul Beckwith/PB [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh1MbBmxOII[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nh1MbBmxOII ;

I expand on my last video on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Shitdown and Catastrophic Consequences to Humanity. The key chain of events is as follows….                                             1) Global warming hole south of Greenland and warming water off East coast of North America, isotopic analyses of sediments, physical monitoring of ocean column, and other proxies all show that the AMOC has slowed significantly, and ocean water currents comprising AMOC are the slowest in the last 1000 years.  2) Nonlinear physics analyses shows that probability of AMOC shutdown between 2025 and 2095 is 95%, with highest likelihood by around 2050. 3) AMOC shutdown would basically cool northern hemisphere and warm southern hemisphere. 4) High Arctic north of Canadian Archipelago, Greenland, and Scandinavian countries would cool as much as 8C, Western Europe would cool 2 to 3 C, and eastern Canada by 1 to 2C. Southern hemisphere by Latin America and western African coast would warm by 2 to 3 C.  5) With ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) shifting from just north of equator to just south of equator, precipitation would increase up to 100% around 15 degrees S latitude and decrease this amount at 15 degrees N latitude. 6) Dynamic sea level change would be large. Between Antarctica and southern tips of South America and Australia, sea level would drop a foot, Gulf of Mexico to Mediterranean would increase a foot, high Arctic would rise as much as 3 to 9 feet.

DJ but also the effects on sea-life will be very dramatic....CO2 absorption via algae would decrease...

PB also discusses extreme hail storms in lots of places...Here in NL we have now several weeks BELOW !!! average temperatures...The "weirding" is increasing...

In my view a weak spot with lots of experts is they end up in a sort of tunnelvision not connecting dots...[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/record-high-north-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature.html (PB does connect the dots...so he is seen by some as "alarmist"...those "some" claim we have untill 2100...or "still yers" to solve the problems..."Feeding" politics kicking cans down the road to "save profits/economy"...

--------------

[url]https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/07/27/mpfs-j27.html[/url] or https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2023/07/27/mpfs-j27.html ;

Consistent with the World Socialist Web Site’s (WSWS) warnings of a summer surge of COVID infections as evidenced by wastewater levels of SARS-CoV-2, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported this week that hospitalizations due to infections with the coronavirus were up by more than 10 percent across the country.

These have also been substantiated by the rise in emergency room visits for COVID-19 from 0.49 percent of all visits in June to 0.73 percent of all visits presently, an increase of nearly 50 percent. In absolute numbers, for the week of July 15, 2023, COVID-19 admissions had risen to 7,109 from 6,444 the week prior, an increase of 11 percent.

Although these levels remain far below last year’s at this time, during the second eruption of Omicron infections, when hospital admissions had reached more than 44,000 per week, estimates suggest that current rates will triple by late August, thus reaching half the peak of last summer. 

The evidence for the surge has been corroborated by the rise in the positivity rate in PCR testing which has climbed from 4.1 percent last month to 6.3 percent in July. One must assume these figures underrepresent the real magnitude of infections as most people rely on home RAT tests, which are far less accurate, or have abandoned testing altogether. 

Even the World Health Organization (WHO) has acknowledged that “some countries continue to report high burdens of COVID-19, including increases in newly reported cases and, more importantly, increase in hospitalizations and deaths—the latter of which are considered more reliable indicators given the reductions in testing.” The international health agency noted that globally, over 836,000 new COVID-19 cases and over 4,500 deaths were reported in the last 28 days (June 19 to July 16, 2023).

DJ..."the pandemic is over" ..."we hardly see any new cases"...Well...you do NOT want to see new cases so you STOPPED testing....Politics/media playing hide and seek...[url]https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp[/url] or https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp has lots of info on CoViD cases increasing again in the US, Australia...H5N1 spreading in mammals...(with some media citing "experts" claiming "low risks" for "most"....)

The exponential factor..in wars -not stopped-, climate collapse -not stopped-, health crises -not stopped- should be clear enough...we are killing ourselves...this is the end game...

Enjoy the good moments for now...try to "limit damage" the best you can...(and by now I do not know if "voting" makes much of a difference...here in NL also "political parties" became a sub-culture out of contact with society...(here in NL we may have over 2 million 80+ y/o in a population of 18-20 million...and -yes- that is a problem ! "Politics" here only have a few parties that realy want to invest in care...We need people to stay healthy longer !) 

As always..I am NOT an expert...hope to be very wrong ! 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 01 2023 at 1:40am

So far "mean stream media" went for "after 2100 sea level ris problems"...maybe even some dit mention there could be a foodcrisis before 2100...

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/07/wet-bulb-globe-temperature-tipping-point.html ;

High Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures (WBGT) are forecast to hit Louisiana, United States, over the next few days. The image below shows a forecast for August 2, 2023, 18 UTC, with WBGT as high as 35°C forecast for a location 10 miles South East of Abbeville, Louisiana, U.S.

WBGT is a measure used by weather.gov to warn about expected heat stress when in direct sunlight. It takes into account the effect of temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation on humans.

As temperatures and humidity levels keep rising, a tipping point can be reached where the wind factor no longer matters, in the sense that wind can no longer provide cooling. The human body can cool itself by sweating, which has a physiological limit that was long described as a 35°C wet-bulb temperature. Once the wet-bulb temperature reaches 35°C, one can no longer lose heat by perspiration, even in strong wind, but instead one will start gaining heat from the air beyond a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C.

Accordingly, a 35°C wet-bulb temperature (equal to 95°F at 100% humidity or 115°F at 50% humidity) was long seen as the theoretical limit, the maximum a human could endure.

2020 study (by Raymond et al.) warns that this limit could be regularly exceeded with a temperature rise of less than 2.5°C (compared to pre-industrial). A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise.

Conclusion

Imminence alone could make that the danger constituted by rising temperatures needs to be acted upon immediately, comprehensively and effectively. While questions may remain regarding probability, severity and timescale of the dangers associated with climate change, the precautionary principle should prevail and this should prompt for action, i.e. comprehensive and effective action to reduce damage and improve the situation is imperative and must be taken as soon as possible. To combat rising temperatures, transforming society is needed, along the lines of this 2022 post in combination with declaration of a climate emergency.

DJ, global economy is based on fossil fuels...even if we would stop ALL fossil fuels NOW it may be to late...

[url]https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-08-01/Beijing-allots-110-million-yuan-for-torrential-rain-disaster-relief--1lUJ7upWF8I/index.html[/url] or https://news.cgtn.com/news/2023-08-01/Beijing-allots-110-million-yuan-for-torrential-rain-disaster-relief--1lUJ7upWF8I/index.html ;

Chinese authorities on Tuesday earmarked 110 million yuan (about $15.35 million) from the central natural disaster relief fund to support rescue and relief work in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region recently hit by torrential rain.  

The emergency fund was jointly allocated by the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management.

[url]https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295447.shtml[/url] or https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202308/1295447.shtml 

Eleven were killed, including two who sacrificed their lives in the line of duty in the rainstorms and flooding in Beijing, and another 27 were missing as of Tuesday morning. 

About 45,000 people in 13 districts in the capital city were severely impacted and 127,000 were evacuated. Economic losses are being calculated, according to municipal authority. 

The rainstorm hit western, southern and southwestern Beijing the hardest since July 29. As of Tuesday morning, the average precipitation reached 257.9mm. Suburban Mentougou and Fangshang districts, the two suffered severest flooding, saw precipitation of 470.2mm and 414.6mm. 

The rainfall intensity has far exceeded the level of July 21, 2012 when 79 lives were claimed across Beijing, half in Fangshan district. 

The peak rainfall recorded more than 700mm at two weather stations, while the peak rainfall in 2012 stood at 541mm.

Beijing’s annual average precipitation is 644mm. 

Some trains passing Beijing West Station and Fengtai Station have been suspended, and the power and telecommunication have not resumed in Mentougou district as of press time. 

Beijing is intensifying efforts in disaster relief by employing PLA helicopters to airdrop essential supplies and transfer stranded residents. The city is also collaborating with neighboring Tianjin Municipality and Hebei Province in flood control by discharging floodwaters into available reservoirs.

DJ [url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#06W[/url] or https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#06W next storm already on its way to China...[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Beijing[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Beijing ; population of the Bejing area may be over 21 million people...

The increased heat of ocean water came unexpected to a lot of experts...it will fuel more rain, storms...humidity, weather extremes...Mixed with dry heat/wild fires air quality is worsening in many places...NOW !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/betrayal-the-threat-to-life-on-earth.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/betrayal-the-threat-to-life-on-earth.html ;

A nuclear war would represent the ultimate outcome of tribalism, nationalism, racism and war, the human propensity for mutual and self-destruction. There was a time when kings and generals would fall on their sword when they were defeated, or when their faith in their gods collapsed. Nowadays oblivious or non-caring world powers continue to proliferate nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert, mine coal and pump oil and gas, starting a greenhouse chain reaction. Leaders, so-called, opportunistically betray the defence of their own people and the future of their children. The voices of anti-nuclear and climate scientists have become subdued, ignored or betrayed. There may not be too many historians to document the 20-21ˢᵗ centuries crimes against humanity and against nature.


An explanation of the collapse of human society, dragging multiple species down with it, arises from Fermi’s Paradox, where the combination of technological achievements and an inherent killer instinct of some leads to collapse.


DJ, Do "social media" spread stupidity ? I find it very hard to accept most of my fellow humans simply have become part of the problem...

[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.800.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.800.html#lastPost Arctic (sea) Ice may start decreasing high speed...So far record warm ocean water did not bring record low levels of Arctic Ice...Jason Box (a.o.) mentioned increase of heavy rainfall on Greenland-increasing ice melt...

With less ice pushing Greenland, Antarctica down seismic events will increase...the underlying landmass will move up. Also methane from melting permafrost further worsening the unfolding crisis...

DJ-I think we are "beyond hope" but I would LOVE to be very wrong ! 

We do not need nuclear global war to end humans...a mix of climate collapse, social collapse, pandemics may kill most of us...

We still could limit damage...but we need other "leaders" for such a goal...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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NATO is pushing for dominance or nuclear war-to serve a rich corrupt rotten elite...NOT democracy ! "Politicians" not willing to face that do a bad job !

[url]http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2023.html[/url] or http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/arctic-sea-ice-august-2023.html ;

Arctic Ocean heating up

The water of the Arctic Ocean is heating up in several ways. 

1.
 Firstly, the water of the Arctic Ocean heats up as it receives direct heat from sunlight. 

-

2. Hot water from rivers ending in the Arctic Ocean is another way the water is heating up.

-

3. Yet another way heat is entering the Arctic Ocean is from oceans

-

Feedbacks and further developments

More generally, the rapid temperature rise threatens to cause numerous feedbacks to accelerate and further developments to occur such as crossing of tipping points, with the danger that the temperature will keep rising.

DJ, Methane level going up in many places. Permafrost melting further increasing methane and other gas-release able to store heat..."green house gas"...

[url]https://www.dw.com/en/extreme-weather/t-19020379[/url] or https://www.dw.com/en/extreme-weather/t-19020379 

Storms, flooding, drought, wildfires, heatwaves are now that widespread it may be impossible to follow -it will increase famines, people dying due to unsafe drinkable water...

[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.800.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.800.html#lastPost following Arctic Sea Ice or even worse-record low Antarctic Sea Ice [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.3650.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.3650.html#lastPost may give us an indication of the "scale of the event"...

DJ- Ice on the poles keep Earth at a certain temperature...the speed in wich ice is melting indicates a human factor. I think it is already to late to avoid a very major disaster...

But when you see a storm coming one could prepare for that storm...Damage-control...trying to slow down the disaster may be all that is left...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 12 2023 at 1:51am

A few news items; 

Hawaii wildfires may have killed up to 67 citizens+ ...the fires went that fast authorities did not find ways to warn a lot of people in time...Very strong and dry winds-high temperatures did increase the fires...

In Georgia (between Russia and Türkiye-SE Europe) landslides after heavy rain may have killed 24 people...with still a lot of people missing...

In Valencia-Spain temperatures did reach 46,8C -3,4C higher than a previous record-in a third Spanish/Potugal heatwave 

Lots of wildfires; Canada, Portugal, Greece, Russia...

[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/ the "bigger picture" is "Polar problems"...both in Arctic/Greenland, Antarctica and a "third pole" in the Himalayas...source of water for the billions living in a major part of Asia...

According to James Hansen, even if we ceased the burning of all fossil fuels today, the huge amount of excess heat that has already been absorbed by the earth's oceans will eventually result in a global average temperature about 10°C (18°F) above preindustrial levels.
I will not be around to see it.  Sadly, we are still doing nothing of importance with respect to removing Greenhouse Gases from the planet.

all that is left -like in other man made crises- is damage control...

[url]https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/australia-sleepwalks-into-bushfire-season/[/url] or https://cosmosmagazine.com/earth/australia-sleepwalks-into-bushfire-season/ ;

For Australians, the reports inevitably bring back memories of our awful Black Summer in 2019-20. Like the Maui tragedy, those huge, uncontrollable bushfires were a terrifying glimpse of the intense fires we can expect as climate change worsens.

Global warming – the result of fossil fuel burning – means bushfires will become more frequent and severe. Of course, we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions. That is blindingly obvious.

But we must do more than that. Australians must urgently adapt to our fiery future.

The Maui fires have been fuelled by strong winds, dry vegetation and low humidity. People were forced to run into the ocean for safety. Hundreds of structures have been damaged or ruined and many people are injured.

Hawaii is not the only part of the northern hemisphere being ravaged by fire.

-

The southern hemisphere is also experiencing highly unusual conditions. Antarctica is struggling to freeze over; it’s reportedly missing a chunk of ice bigger than Greenland.

And Australia is experiencing an unseasonably warm winter. The country looks set for a hot, dry, El Nino-fuelled summer, putting fire crews on high alert.

-

Australia, too, is fast becoming a continent of more uncontrolled fire.

Let’s compare the period of 1988 to 2001, with the period 2002 to 2018. In Australian forests, the average annual burned area in the second period was 350% greater than in the first. If we include 2019 – the year the Black Summer fires began – the increase rises to 800%.

The Black Summer fires were started by lightning and human activity. They were fuelled by extreme heat, record low rainfall and widespread dieback of vegetation. It meant the fires burned at unprecedented intensity.

-

When the bushfire royal commission handed down its report in October 2020, I described it as a “clarion call for change”. Finally, Australia had a map for its journey toward adapting to fires and other natural disasters.

The scope of the commission’s recommendations was vast. For governments alone, it called for changes across land-use planning, infrastructure, emergency management, social policy, agriculture, education, physical and mental health, community development, energy and the environment.

The commission also called for an acknowledgement of the role of Indigenous fire managers in mitigating bushfire risks.

Almost three years on, we haven’t seen the changes needed. We’re behaving as if we’ve got an endless amount of time. Australia is sleepwalking into our fiery future.

The pandemic shows humans are amazingly adaptable. We used an integrated approach to mitigate and adapt to that threat. We need an equivalent response to adapt to fire and climate change – but it’s just not happening.

There is much Australia can do to adapt to fire. We can improve our urban planning regimes and building standards. We can better manage fuel loads in our forests. We can increase our firefighting capacity and get much better at bushfire preparation and early warning systems.

And importantly, we should draw on Indigenous knowledge and the expertise of Aboriginal communities. These approaches could prove vital not only managing extreme fires in Australia, but elsewhere in the world.

DJ, using (ignoring ) the pandemic as an example may not be the strongest point...

One thing Australians can all agree on is that we don’t want catastrophically uncontrolled fires.

As our Black Summer showed, these fires not only destroy lives, homes and biodiversity. They actually threaten the Earth’s systems. Black Summer pumped huge amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. It depleted the ozone layer. It created an algal bloom in the Southern Ocean bigger than the Australian continent.

It’s vital that we slash greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible, to stabilise Earth’s climate. But that’s not sufficient. Australians have to adapt to fire, too.

The fires in Hawaii remind Australians that our summer is just around the corner. We don’t have much time.

David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science, University of Tasmania

DJ...so inaction WILL result in Australia dealing with wild fires coming months....

The heat, drought, in combination with "global developments" may change Australia, New Zealand as "part of the west"...Instead of moving to Australia, New Zealand people may start moving away from these countries...leaving it to mining, extensive farming...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 13 2023 at 8:43am

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-rome-collapsed-lessons-present[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/why-rome-collapsed-lessons-present ;

There is persuasive evidence that tribes from Central Asia moved westward into Europe in response to climate change--reduced rainfall led to less fodder for horses and less food for humans, forcing the move to the relative abundance of Europe.

In effect, climate change doomed Rome by unleashing such massive waves of Barbarian migration that it could no longer manage or repel the Barbarian armies.

In summary, Rome became dependent on the Barbarians for its military might while treating them with social distain, and mismanaging the integration of Barbarians, a task it had handled so admirably in an ad hoc but practical manner.

What can we learn from this complex history of unfolding polycrises?

We can start by observing how climate change (regardless of its source), pandemics, mass migrations, the hollowing out of the money supply, over-extended military commitments, the rise of new threats, declines in harvests and grain supplies, the hubris of ruling elites and extremes of wealth-power inequality all feed off of and reinforce each other.

Put another way, polycrisis is endemic to complex, interconnected systems. If the problems were limited to 1+1+1+1+1=5, the empire could maintain its coherence and adapt in ways to resolve the multiple overlapping crises.

But emergent systems--that is, complex, interconnected systems--are not just a collection of dynamics; the resulting polycrisis has its own dynamics and unique features that are distinct from the features of the five sub-crises. In other words, 1+1+1+1+1=15, and the system / empire is overwhelmed and collapses.

This is why polycrises are different from existential crises: the system could handle one, two or even three crises with its existing resources and structures, but a fourth anf fifth crises changes the nature of the threat.

As a thought experiment, consider how World War II might have gone for the US if:

1) the US hadn't been the world's leading producer of oil, steel, etc.

2) a pandemic had ravaged the young generation needed to expand the military.

3) The Dust Bowl had expanded to include the entire grain-growing Midwest of the US.

Even the most capable leaders still need a productive workforce, a population youthful and healthy enough to staff a military, access to essential resources and cooperative weather / food supplies.

Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius had to auction off the imperial treasure to raise desperately needed cash to fund an expanded military, but he had the treasure, manpower, resources, legacy organization and values to manage the multiple crises he faced as emperor. It was no easy task, hence his Stoicism.

But he still had the foundations of Roman power, both soft and hard power, and enough remained of traditional values and stored wealth to support the necessary adaptation and mustering of resources.

As resources are depleted and climate change disrupts the few breadbaskets of the world, which nations will have the foundations of values, organization, resources, human capital and wealth to survive polycrises?

In my book Global Crisis, National Renewal, I argue that no nation clinging to the current "waste is growth / landfill economy" will survive the emergent global polycrisis. Only those nations that embrace degrowth and a set of values other than maximizing financial gains for the elites will have the means necessary to adapt and emerge not just as survivors but as more adaptable and resilient.

DJ, denial of problems, kicking lots of cans down many streets-only buying time-at increasing exponential costs...If "politics" today is going this way there will be no tomorrow.....Do we really need to hit the concrete wall ???

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 15 2023 at 10:24pm

Paul Beckwith (with Shackleton-old cat) discussing another-alarming-climate study; 

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-YobPD8D_E[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-YobPD8D_E ;

James Hansen is arguably the giant of all climate scientists. I was very fortunate to meet him a few years ago at a COP climate conference, and chat with him on a CEF (Climate Emergency Forum) video. He has just published a new paper on updates on the climate system: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailing... 

This paper is vitally important in giving us a clear picture of what we can expect in the next few years. A confluence of factors is driving up global average temperatures of the atmosphere and oceans and we can expect warming and climate extremes to notch up to much higher record setting levels. 

We ain’t seen nothing yet. 

We are only getting a taste this summer of what is to come in the next year or two. 

1) Average global temperatures trended upwards at 0.18 degrees C per decade before 2010. With less aerosol forcing, since 2010 to now it has risen between 0.27 and 0.36 degrees C (this was all in the previous paper “Global Warming in the Pipeline”) 

2) We can expect an additional rise from El Niño; it is really just getting started. A super El Niño will easily drive global average temperatures well above 1.5 C perhaps later this year but highly probably for 2024. El Niño is much more powerfully warming the planet in the year after it starts, so in 2024 since it started this year. 

3) Solar irradiation is peaking soon, and basically adds a forcing of +0.1 W per m**2 on top of everything else. 

4) We are missing a vast area of sea ice around Antarctica, but Antarctica is still in its winter darkness. Come Fall and Winter for Northern Hemisphere dwellers, the sun rises in the Southern Hemisphere and the huge extra area of dark open ocean around Antarctica will absorb huge amounts of extra sunlight. 

5) The Earth Energy Imbalance was 0.6 W or m**2 ten years ago (400,000 Hiroshima bombs a day) but is now 1.22 W per m**2 (more than double; namely 800,000 Hiroshima bombs per day). 

It is already rapidly rising and the additional effects listed above will greatly accelerate the rise. 

As a result of this unfortunate confluence of events, we can expect the global climate turmoil in the last few months to substantially worsen. When it does, expect the media and mainstream scientists and politicians to espouse their excuses and concerns, but none of that matters if they do not slash fossil fuels. 

Last week Lahaina in Hawaii was incinerated and 1400 people are still missing (I think they have returned to ashes and dust), and just today 90-95% of the town of Enterprise in Canada’s Northwest Territories has incinerated. 

Global floods are ongoing, heatwaves are killing countless people, and global governments just don’t give a damn, since they are subsidizing fossil fuels at record high levels. And the world goes on, at least for most people. 

Please donate to http://PaulBeckwith.net to support my research and videos as I document and explain why our planet is dying.


DJ...my view; all that is left is damage "control"....We are on a global Titanic that did hit the iceberg...the orchestra still is playing...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkBuxeIsXDo[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkBuxeIsXDo 

Melody Gardot - Our Love is easy (with lyrics)

Deep within your heart, you know it's plain to see Like Adam was to Eve, you were made for me They say the poisoned vine, breeds a finer wine Our love is easy

DJ...for as long as possible try to enjoy the good things...Live is full of surprises, science is far from perfect...Hope they got it wrong !

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/two-tipping-points.html ;

The image below shows that the World Sea Surface Temperature (60°South - 60°North) reached a new daily record high on August 13, 2023. As the image also shows, the sea surface temperature over the past few months has been much higher than in any other year on record. 

The image below shows NASA data for Monthly mean global surface temperature anomalies (open ocean) vs 1901-1930. The ochre trend, based on January 1900-July 2023 data, indicates that the latent heat tipping point was crossed in 2021 and the seafloor methane tipping point may be crossed by the end of 2033. Both trends extend into the future for 15 years, but the red trend is based on July 2008-July 2023 data and better reflects El Niño and other variables, and this red trend indicates that the latent heat tipping point was crossed in 2023 and the seafloor methane tipping point may be crossed later this year.

DJ, A look at [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.850.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.850.html#lastPost indicating Arctic Sea Ice level is dropping. If the last al Nino-year-2016- gives an indication we may see 2023 in a top 5 for lowest Arctic Sea Ice...Antarctic (Sea) Ice is far worse...[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.3700.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.3700.html#lastPost ...but at least for now-it is winter in Antarctica !!!-Antarctic ice is growing....

Do we get time to see major food crisis or is heat going up that fast it will kill billions within a few years...You need extreme heat (50C/120F +) over major urban area's for just a few hours to see lots of people die...So will it be Mexico City, Houston, Caïro, Istanbul....Or will Moscow, New York, Paris be hit with extreme high temperatures ?

"Wet Bulb" =35C + 100% humidity resulting overheating...killing people/animals within hours...But 50C can kill even with low humidity...

Another risk is in the higher temperatures get the greater the risk for fires starting because of ignition-point getting reached...Some trees -plant oil rich- could ignite by itself if exposed to full sunlight and extreme heat...(We did see that in Kuwait a few years ago...). 

It may be impossible to get a grip on wildfires when temperatures are 50C+....There are limits to firefighters...Of course one should "plan" for fires...keep "empty zones" in between forests...to at least be able to contain fires...In cities reservoirs for extreme rain may be of use to cool cities during extreme heat...But you have to have reservoirs...

Just like many other crises not enough (by far !!!) is done to deal with the crises one can see coming...

[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ may indicate increase of hurricane risks...Major storms can transport hot air with high humidity to places not used to such conditions...Hitting a major city would be bad...but you also do not want 30C and lots of (hot !!!) rain over Greenland (or Antarctic !) ice....

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Jason Box [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4fz7Dc5vRs[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4fz7Dc5vRs on Greenland ice melt...How lakes of meltwater can flow -high speed- into the ice...Some of those lakes now 20 meter/60 feet deep...The water going into the ice can cause "ice-quakes" -will increase glaciers/ice moving towards the ocean...

Of course what goes for Greenland also may already show in/on Antarctica, other lands with ice...

Jason Box also provided a link to [url]https://www.sila.cool/book-faster-than-forecast/[/url] or https://www.sila.cool/book-faster-than-forecast/ ;

“Faster than Forecast: the story ice tells about abrupt climate change”

book by Dr. Jason Box

Accompanied by numerous first-hand videos and written in plain language, the American “ice maverick”, Professor Jason Box leads readers through a personal 30 year scientific adventure. This is the story that Greenland ice tells about abrupt anthropogenic climate change, and its global consequences.

The readers and viewers understand how the Arctic is a ‘leading edge of climate breakdown’. The book concludes with a personal experience of radical resistance culture having surprising benefits, underlined with video clips.

After framing grave climate impacts, a narrow window of opportunity for prosperity is defined, but only by following a set of radical solutions, described in the book, will the worst aspects of climate catastrophe be averted.

With each book sold, a number of trees will be planted in the name of book buyer, coordinates and updates shared as our trees take a little bite out of the climate catastrophe.

DJ Also video link...

For the US both heat and storms may be on their way; [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIrFOmvlsmE[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIrFOmvlsmE ;

In this video we are talking about the worst heat wave of this summer & how it will change our weather going forward… 

DJ, Lots of extreme weather events did kill hundreds of people this year...[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc has 4 possible storms on the Atlantic...[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/055245.shtml?cone#contents[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/055245.shtml?cone#contents "Hilary" could bring extreme rain to the US-even Canada..The jetstream may push this storm/rain over the central US then east towards New York...[url]https://www.ventusky.com/[/url] or https://www.ventusky.com/ may give an indication on extreme weather...

[url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.850.html#lastPost[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3909.850.html#lastPost Arctic Sea Ice now at position 8...Could go to #4...unless extreme weather would see massive melt the coming month...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 22 2023 at 11:56pm

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/political/children-were-incinerated-ash-livid-hawaiians-slam-biden-cracking-jokes-lying-about-wife[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/political/children-were-incinerated-ash-livid-hawaiians-slam-biden-cracking-jokes-lying-about-wife and [url]https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/08/the-democrats-biden-problem.html[/url] or https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/08/the-democrats-biden-problem.html 

DJ-The Hawaii wildfires may have claimed hundreds of lives...biden making jokes is the last thing people on Hawaii need...[url]https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230823-at-least-1-100-missing-after-hawaii-fires-1[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230823-at-least-1-100-missing-after-hawaii-fires-1 

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperatures-hit-the-US-again.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperatures-hit-the-US-again.html ;

Extreme heat stress alert

High Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures are forecast to hit the U.S. again. 

Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures are forecast to be as high as 95°F or 35°C in Lufkin, Texas, on Monday August 21, 2023 at 4 am Central Time.

Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures as high as 35°C are also forecast to be reached in Topeka, Kansas on Monday August 21, 2023 at 4 am Central Time.

DJ, 35C + 100% humidity will kill all if it last long enough...the body gets overheated...Lots of places in the America's, Europe, Asia, Africa now face extreme heat. [url]https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230822-france-issues-rare-red-alert-for-heatwave-in-south[/url] or https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230822-france-issues-rare-red-alert-for-heatwave-in-south 

[url]https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/[/url] or https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ lots of storms related to hot oceans...Earthquake-links [url]https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/weather/2019/10/28/can-hurricanes-cause-earthquakes-fsu-study-says-absolutely/2426817007/[/url] or https://eu.palmbeachpost.com/story/weather/2019/10/28/can-hurricanes-cause-earthquakes-fsu-study-says-absolutely/2426817007/ ;  “There was a very strong correlation that whenever extreme storms are present and they are traveling through certain regions, the stormquakes would light up.”

DJ, There has to be seismic activity to begin with. It may be hard to 100% link a quake to a storm for that matter. Statistics may give a false impression-but lots of statistics point to a storm-quake-link...

[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fX2tSmNu68[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fX2tSmNu68 Dr.Gilbz talking to Jason Box on "biggest loser" Greenland or Antarctica...DJ-At the end WE are the biggest loser...

Maybe another remark; the younger the scientist the more "hopium"...could there be an age-related bias ? When you are under 30 "hope" may "think away" climate collapse within months-see it as a long term issue ? Jason Box claims Greenland ice is that much it will last "hundreds of years"...DJ-If Earth goes towards a Venus-like climate within decades that ice will be gone...

I am over 60 so-maybe that is why I am more cynical/realistic; politics will NOT stop climate change...People need to learn it the hard way...but may not survive it...

-Maybe also a note on nuclear war. NATO keeps escalating...Somehow Russia/BRICS can not make NATO/biden into reality...NATO will go for wars as long as they have means to do so...They have to be #1 at all cost...even by nuclear war...It is a matter of time...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 24 2023 at 2:52am
Why Joe Biden & son, Blinken, & Sullivan may resort to "mini-nukes", rather than concede Ukraine defeat & NATO "power failure". Short answer: only 14 months before election AND they have personal stake. If they lose, there is enough evidence for jail time.

DJ, the Ukraine war should have been avoided-but is an outcome of creating crises for profits...

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperatures-hit-the-US-again.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/08/high-wet-bulb-globe-temperatures-hit-the-US-again.html :

Temperatures are high

Globally, temperatures have been at record high levels for the time of year for some time in 2023, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer. 


On August 22, 2023, the world temperature was 16.9°C, 0.82°C higher than it was on that day in 1979-2000. 


Extreme heat stress alert

High Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures hit the U.S. over a large area, over a long time. 

DJ [url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNYgR_HEjhI[/url] or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNYgR_HEjhI  A high pressure area over the central US is resulting in a "heat dome" there-with lots of storms circling around that system...A new kind of mega-extreme weather system....

Lots of places facing extreme heat-extreme weather...also affecting logistics from the Dardanel-route to the Black Sea (wildfires) to Panama-canal (drought), Dnjepr river (NATO blew up a dam and blame Russia)...

From the Arctic News Blogspot article;

The image below shows forecasts for August 24, 2023, measured as temperature (left), apparent temperature (center) and wet bulb globe temperature (right), three areas with high values marked by squares, circles, and stars, respectively.  

For descriptions of the various ways temperature can be measures, also see the earlier post Extreme Heat Stress

Unbearable conditions

The images further illustrate that, as temperatures rise, conditions are increasingly occurring that make it hard, if not impossible for many species (including humans) to survive, even at relatively high latitudes. This danger has been discussed in many earlier posts, such as in Humans may be extinct in 2026

DJ...again temperatures themselves may become "killing millions" ...I would like to believe 2024 -future- would offer hope...but why ? 

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 31 2023 at 11:12am

On Greenland ice melt [url]https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3857.150.html[/url] or https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3857.150.html 

Daily melt down 1 % at 14%, which is well above the longterm average for the time of year.

Daily SMB gain of 2.1 GT compared with the 2017-2022 average gain on this day of 2.7 GT. Accumulated SMB gain at 394GT is 15 GT (4%) above the 2017-2022 average of 379 GT.

The next few days?
Maybe warm enough for above average melt over days 3-5 days mostly in the South?

SMB. Precipitation variable but maybe with extreme rain and snow next Saturday to Monday skirting East Greenland from a deep low from the South - that includes warmth and wet from the remains of Hurricane Franklin?

Accumulated melt to date is above the 2017-2022 average total by 16%.

Accumulated SMB is certain to end up above the 5 year average despite the certainty that accumulated melt this year will finish at 3rd and maybe even 2nd highest in the satellite record (from NSIDC Greenland Today data). 2012 will still be by far the year of the record accumulated melt and the lowest accumulated SMB gain in the DMI SMB year of 1 Sept to 31 Aug.

A warmer wetter Greenland this year in line with the climate models.
The strengthening El Nino could give us an unusual Autumn/Winter?

DJ, Greenland and Antarctica may have a lot of similarity...

[url]https://paulbeckwith.net/2023/03/10/can-ecological-economics-let-us-survive-and-reset-adjusting-to-abrupt-climate-system-change/[/url] or https://paulbeckwith.net/2023/03/10/can-ecological-economics-let-us-survive-and-reset-adjusting-to-abrupt-climate-system-change/;

A few years ago Nate Hagens wrote a brilliant peer reviewed scientific paper (Ref1) in the journal “Ecological Economics” titled: “Economics for the Future: Beyond the SuperOrgasm” (sic Organism).

I chat about the crucial messages of this paper, which are that energy constraints will soon result in a collapse of our present way of life. Orthodox economics does not consider energy constraints, and our Superorganism society is on its last legs as we create more and more credit (this debt) to extract dwindling fossil fuels.

DJ...we have an "economic system" ignoring lots of damages...So what is supposed to be "profit" may have much higher costs we now ignore...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: August 31 2023 at 12:56pm

[url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland september 1 1939- (western backed) nazi germany invaded Poland...

[url]https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/biden-approves-direct-us-military-aid-to-taiwan[/url] or https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/biden-approves-direct-us-military-aid-to-taiwan

The Biden administration has approved funding for the first-ever transfer of US military equipment to Taiwan under a program typically saved for sovereign nations, according to a notification sent to Congress on Tuesday.

The package – which is part of the State Department’s foreign military financing (FMF) program – totals $80 million and will be paid for by US taxpayers.

DJ, history repeating itself for our very eyes...yet most can 't see it...

US ‘keeps creating tension’ over Taiwan with new arms funding
By  and Published: Aug 31, 2023 08:59 PM Updated: Aug 31, 2023 10:24 PM

 

 

 

 
US Taiwan arms sales Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

US Taiwan arms sales Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

The US intends to keep creating the tension of the Taiwan question to provoke China rather than to ease the tension, analysts said on Thursday, as US President Joe Biden's administration has approved a military transfer to the island of Taiwan under the Foreign Military Financing, or FMF, which is normally used for sovereign states.


Biden wants war....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 05 2023 at 7:29am
  · 
🚨NASA SCIENTIST: THE PUBLIC JUST DOESN’T UNDERSTAND WHAT A DEEP EMERGENCY WE ARE IN. 

WE COULD SEE HEATWAVES THAT KILL A MILLION PEOPLE IN A FEW DAYS IN THE COMING YEARS AND IT WON’T STOP THERE…

-from [url]https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL[/url] or https://www.facebook.com/JoseBarbaNueva/?locale=nl_NL 

We should expect 2024 will be more extreme due to the -just started-"El Nino"...This will result in more methane release-further pushing up temperatures...Less ice on Greenland, Antarctic...less sea ice...

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/too-late-the-climate-and-nuclear-juggernaut.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/too-late-the-climate-and-nuclear-juggernaut.html ;

Under the guise of lies and cover-ups, the global powers to be have set the stage for the unthinkable, a world-wide hair-trigger human suicide system taking much of nature with it. With the exception of abstract ideas or experimental attempts, no actual steps are being taken to slow down, or even reverse, the inexorable rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases, now rising into Miocene-like levels of >400 parts per million CO₂ within the century, the fastest rise rate identified in the geological record.

Nor are steps undertaken to try and dismantle the global doomsday fleet of more than 12,700 nuclear warheads, where space and the oceans have become nuclear playgrounds, enough to render large parts of the Earth uninhabitable.

The criminal insanity of political, military, strategic, economic and scientific leaders, matched only by the naive blindness of billions of people, is consistent with what has been referred to as the ‘Fermi Paradox’ ─ the apparent absence of signals from technological civilizations in the Milky Way, interpreted in terms of a self-destruction of such civilizations.

-

But perhaps the most lethal human branch has become the media, which with few exceptions turned into a global propaganda machine skilful in distorting facts, promoting conflicts, manufacturing untruths, concealing avenues to peace and promoting wars in the tradition of Goebbels.

DJ, The US "politics" has fallen into the hands of criminals...Covering up their family crimes by wars...

Climate collapse in itself is terrible...pandemics are linked to climate collapse. Starting a nuclear war "to solve the problem" would only proof humans may not be worthy of living on this planet. 

🌀**MEDICANE**—A very rare hurricane/cyclone-like storm in the Mediterranean Sea, due to very hot waters from Europe’s 2023 heat dome, may be emerging this week, that could dump astronomical amounts of rain and cause flooding in Greece 🇬🇷. Extreme forecasts of well over 500 mm of rain (less likely, but some models suggest maybe up to 2000 mm / 78 inches of rain) in 48 hours! (See right graph). Hurricane-level wind gust also recorded already. But the extreme volume of rain could cause severe amount of flooding. #Medicane

-

The medicane on the first pic is projected for next Sunday (and is still very uncertain). Has nothing to do with the astronomical rainfall in Greece right now

DJ, Spain had a crazy amount of rain the last few days...Taiwan/China hit hard by a cyclone...more hurricanes are forming and may a.o. hit the US later next week. [url]https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/intensity-models-show-big-development-late-week-all-eyes-atlantic-hurricane-season-nears[/url] or https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/intensity-models-show-big-development-late-week-all-eyes-atlantic-hurricane-season-nears (And -yes- hurricanes in itself are NOT new...however the amount of rain, wind, seize could be record breaking !)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 08 2023 at 12:06pm







This is absolutely devastating news. First, one has to wonder if perhaps we have already passed the West Antarctic collapse tipping point. Second, it begs the question, are other climate model projections under-estimating the speed of #climate breakdown

link; [url]https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/antarctica-warming-much-faster-than-models-predicted-in-deeply-concerning-sign-for-sea-levels[/url] or https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/08/antarctica-warming-much-faster-than-models-predicted-in-deeply-concerning-sign-for-sea-levels ;

Antarctica is likely warming at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world and faster than climate change models are predicting, with potentially far-reaching implications for global sea level rise, according to a scientific study.

Scientists analysed 78 Antarctic ice cores to recreate temperatures going back 1,000 years and found the warming across the continent was outside what could be expected from natural swings.


In West Antarctica, a region considered particularly vulnerable to warming with an ice sheet that could push up global sea levels by several metres if it collapsed, the study found warming at twice the rate suggested by climate models.

DJ, embedded media, the problem is NOT sea level rise...

At temperatures above 68 degrees Fahrenheit, or 20 degrees Celsius, the rate of photosynthesis decreases because the enzymes do not work as efficiently at the increasing  temperatures. 
 At a temperature above 104 degrees Fahrenheit – 40 degrees Celsius – the enzymes that carry out photosynthesis lose their shape and functionality, and the photosynthetic rate declines rapidly. 
The graph of photosynthetic rate versus temperature presents a curved appearance with the peak rate occurring close to room temperature. Carbon Dioxide diffuses into leaves but can be slowed and even stopped at higher temperatures.

DJ, the short term major problems;

-extreme heat waves with lots of urban population unable to cool down..

-food and water shortage

-extreme weather...

Somehow people see the present extreme weather events as exceptional...It will only get much worse...

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 09 2023 at 3:12am

[url]https://www.omroepwest.nl/nieuws/4753461/kijk-live-mee-klimaatactivisten-blokkeren-a12[/url] or https://www.omroepwest.nl/nieuws/4753461/kijk-live-mee-klimaatactivisten-blokkeren-a12 

[url]https://nltimes.nl/2023/09/09/fences-black-screens-placed-utrechtsebaan-planned-xr-protest[/url] or https://nltimes.nl/2023/09/09/fences-black-screens-placed-utrechtsebaan-planned-xr-protest and

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/09/extinction-rebellion-permanent-blockade-planned-on-a12/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/09/extinction-rebellion-permanent-blockade-planned-on-a12/ 

Extinction Rebellion is on Saturday scheduled to start what it describes as a “permanent” blockade of the A12 motorway, with well-known activists reportedly on the way there and planning repeat, daily action.

On Friday caretaker justice minister and the next leader of the VVD Dilan Yeşilgöz urged protestors not to block the A12 motorway, saying the right to protest was “a great asset” but should not be done on major traffic routes. Dutch media report that 10,000 protesters are expected on Saturday and the ANWB warned motorists to take other routes.

Previous such demonstrations have led to mass arrests, including of journalists, and the use of water cannon. In May, Game of Thrones actress Carice van Houten was among those arrested then immediately released, in a demonstration of some 1,600 people.

DJ, (NL) Politics is working for the fossil fuel energy interests. They ignore public interest. It is politics turning democracy into "democrazy"...

[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/09/rutte-and-royals-express-concerns-for-moroccan-quake-victims/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/09/rutte-and-royals-express-concerns-for-moroccan-quake-victims/ "rutte and royals" have major interests in a.o. shell....Earthquakes, hurricanes etc. are getting worse because of climate collapse.

Also pandemics have major links with the eco-cide politics...Again, we need to change the way "we" live if we even want to have a remote chance of survival...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 10 2023 at 5:18am

DJ, We may not be that far away from our first official-national- heatwave in NL for a septembermonth...[url]https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/09/extinction-rebellion-permanent-blockade-planned-on-a12/[/url] or https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/09/extinction-rebellion-permanent-blockade-planned-on-a12/ today police also used watercanons to cool themselves while breaking up a blockade of the main The Hague entry road for the second day...

[url]https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/methane-eruptions-threaten.html[/url] or https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2023/09/methane-eruptions-threaten.html ;

The above image, adapted from Climate Reanalyzer, shows that on September 8, 2023, the North Atlantic sea surface reached a new record high temperature, of 25.4°C, even higher than the record reached the day before.


The situation is critical! More heat entering the Arctic Ocean threatens to destabilize hydrates and cause huge amounts of methane to erupt and enter the atmosphere.

The image on the right, adapted from NASA Worldview, shows the poor state of the sea ice.

On September 8, 2023, the Polarstern reached the North Pole. The image below shows the research vessel and the sea ice at the North Pole.

-

The image on the right, adapted from University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice concentration and the route followed by the Polarstern. 

The threat is that, as the water of the Arctic Ocean keeps heating up, heat will reach the seafloor and destabilize methane hydrates contained in sediments at the seafloor, resulting in eruptions of huge amounts of methane. 

Erupting from the hydrates occurs at great force, since the methane expands 160 when decompressed, resulting in the methane rapidly rising in the form of plumes, leaving little or no opportunity for microbes to decompose the methane in the water column. Furthermore, the atmosphere over the Arctic contains very little hydroxyl, resulting in methane persisting in the air over the Arctic much longer than elsewhere. 

Ominously, very high methane levels continue to be recorded at Barrow, Alaska, U.S. 

DJ-Politics serving the fossil fuel economy is destroying this planet...