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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

"This is What Police State Looks Like" Mass Panic?

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BabyCat View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 04 2020 at 9:35am

Well now, this may come across as heresy, and I duly expect to be pilloried thoroughly for even suggesting so, but is it possible the world is experiencing such extreme mass panic upon the pandemic, so much so that is being seized upon by authorities for power?

Examples abound: Philippines Duterte threatens to shoot on sight anyone violating stay at home order, Hungary has given its leader dictatorial powers, economies are completely smashed around the world, nearly the whole world is under effective house arrest, right to travel eliminated, etc. Even given the most dire warnings, can it even be discussed whether the reactions are proportionate to the threat?

The world has certainly experienced terrible pandemics before. A great number die, that is sadly part of our human condition, even with all of the world's advances in medicine. So what can, or should be done about it?

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/former-british-supreme-court-justice-what-police-state

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/former-supreme-court-justice-this-is-what-a-police-state-is-like-

Former (UK) Supreme Court Justice: ‘This is what a police state is like’

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 9:39am

The article mentions massive increases in other costs...such as heart attacks. Indeed, my father-in-law now is in the hospital about to undergo open heart surgery after a massive heart attack yesterday.  He was resuscitated from flat line. His business is ruined, he's 62, there's little chance it will ever recover to the level it was before. He has many people counting on him for support.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 9:43am

Nah when it gets to illegal door to door searches and firearm confiscations in direct violation of the 4th and 2nd amendments like during hurricane Katrina then it's starting to look like that. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 9:46am

Sorry to hear about your father in law BC. I hope his surgery goes well and he has a speedy recovery. No doubt this event has increased the stress level of people in so many ways.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 9:54am

If the Great American Experiment in democracy is lost, if our Republic is shattered..it is not worth it! Great patriots died for this! Do we give it up so easily and willingly??

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 11:03am

Sorry about your father-in-law.  My late husband had triple by pass at 60 and did really well.  It is a hard recovery but worth it.  Sorry also his business is gone.  So many people will be in this boat and I am not sure how all of this will turn out.  All sad...so sorry!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 12:22pm

Thanks all for your kind wishes. This sucks any way you slice it. 

Choice of:

1. Pain and death for millions

2. Pain and death for millions

How do you even begin to quantify it?

It reminds of Good Will Hunting...where Will is recounting being asked to choose between being beaten by a belt, a stick, or a wrench.

He chooses the wrench.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4BC4JGXwlE


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 1:38pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

The article mentions massive increases in other costs...such as heart attacks. Indeed, my father-in-law now is in the hospital about to undergo open heart surgery after a massive heart attack yesterday.  He was resuscitated from flat line. His business is ruined, he's 62, there's little chance it will ever recover to the level it was before. He has many people counting on him for support.

How terrible. Best wishes for his speedy recovery. I think we'll see a rise in heart attacks, the stress of the financial collapse (and the whole coronavirus) has come from out of the blue and successful and stable businesses are buckling and going under. None of us saw this coming.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 1:40pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

 Do we give it up so easily and willingly??

What do you suggest we do? What can we do? It's nobody's fault. There is no one to blame over this.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:06pm

I'm starting to believe this thought more and more.  Tucker makes excellent points. This is DESTROYING America. Do we really need to destroy it to save it???

Let's do the math..Some may argue, morbidly, Darwin-esque: if the deaths are going to come anyway (delaying), let's get them done with, and move on. Not sure what's correct.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/tucker-carlson-faucis-national-quarantine-hes-pushing-national-suicide-while-hes-got-job

---

Perhaps there's a middle ground, like what S. Korea staked out. Instead of massive moneny to pay people to stay home unemployed, should have put into massive testing both antibody and virus, tracing (still not being done basically at all), surveillance, separation of infected (NOT put at home to infect their families), MANDATORY mask wearing for anyone in public, separate fever clinics, closed schools, but business/travel open, etc. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:08pm

Originally posted by KiwiMum KiwiMum wrote:

What do you suggest we do? What can we do? It's nobody's fault. There is no one to blame over this.

'And yet we will.  Humans always do.


Trump is blaimed in the US, Boris in the UK, Xi in China and Putin in Russia.  (Probably all are a little bit guilty, A- does not do as a pass mark if it was your loved one who died, but none of them planned this.)  But for the most part they are blaimless.  How many of us wrote to our leaders to say this was coming?  Well we did not plan it either.  


Being human, we want a scapegoat.  That does not make the goat guilty.



ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:09pm

Let's face this head on. Total shutdown of America for six months on end is unsustainable. We will be destroyed. Goodbye King dollar.

Isolate vulnerable. 

Antibody testing for immunity certificates. Test everyone, if negative, allowed out to work, keep America alive.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gdeb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:12pm

We need to dump money into the antibody tests. Those people could return to work as soon as they had the results, given of course that this nasty thing actually gives anyone immunity. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:39pm

World Economic Forum


@wef
 ·
‘Act fast and do whatever it takes’ to fight the COVID-19 crisis, say leading economists https://bit.ly/2QCT64M #coronavirus #COVID19
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 2:42pm

Originally posted by Gdeb Gdeb wrote:

We need to dump money into the antibody tests. Those people could return to work as soon as they had the results, given of course that this nasty thing actually gives anyone immunity. 


THIS!!! This is from  a leading US testing academic:


@michaelmina_lab


Could the US have >2 million #COVID19 cases by now?  I'll be astounded if not! We simply don't test. The ratio of who gets a test vs who should, likely worse than 1 in 10.   So given 220K cases reported ->  >2.2 million COVID cases in US already? >4 million? Perhaps...

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1246338140232695814

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 7:42pm

Originally posted by Gdeb Gdeb wrote:

We need to dump money into the antibody tests. Those people could return to work as soon as they had the results, given of course that this nasty thing actually gives anyone immunity. 

That's the $64,000 question - how long does the immunity last? Perhaps it's only fleeting as with the common cold. Only time will tell and an extended 3 or 4 year study. This is why a safe vaccine is so important. And a safe vaccine takes time to develop.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 7:46pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

Let's face this head on. Total shutdown of America for six months on end is unsustainable. We will be destroyed. Goodbye King dollar.

Why does this prospect worry you so much? America will be in the same boat as everywhere else on earth. We'll all be restarting our economies from a much lower base point. America won't be destroyed. It'll still be there, a very large country full of Americans. Your roads and houses will still be there. You'll still produce food and music and household things. It'll be a reset for the whole world. Things perhaps won't be the same as before but who's to say it won't be better. Change is generally good in the long run. Don't worry so much. It'll be fine.

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*ahem*  

Human life is worth FAR more, in economic terms, that the few months of sales activity and production we could sustain during the pandemic.  

In addition to pandemic training, I've worked with universities, FBI and others on bioterrorism since 9/11 and helped to write the national standards for protection of drinking water & sewage treatment plants from terrorist attack.  One of the critical infrastructures that was extensively analyzed was our food supply. 

Dr. Frank Busta of Univ of Mn wrote this to me in 2005, and the numbers are still valid with adjustment: 

The prototype of the model I included in my presentation is being developed by BT Safety, LLC.


The precision of the economic data are still under development. However, one can do the math on value of life depending on age and profession ranging from >$8,000,000 for young children to <$1,000,000 for elderly and see that 57,000 deaths alone (without consideration of other economic losses) would undoubtedly >$100 billion.


 I would double these figures and say that each young life saved is worth $16M, and average life saved is probably $8M (the "only the elderly die from COVID-19" is a myth being rapidly disproven).


Therefore, if we reach 100,000 deaths in the US from COVID-19 (lower range estimate, I'm guessing 500,000) then the economic value lost from these deaths would be close to 1/2 $trillion. 


Shut the economic activity down, enforce the shutdowns, and snuff the corona virus out as we did with SARS.  That is the only way to resolve this. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 9:01pm

I am starting to disagree, that the deaths from prolonged shutdowns won't be less than the virus. But why still do it as we have? Perhaps money, perhaps control.

Important article:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-real-reason-behind-lock-downs

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 10:35pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I am starting to disagree, that the deaths from prolonged shutdowns won't be less than the virus. But why still do it as we have? Perhaps money, perhaps control.

Important article:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-real-reason-behind-lock-downs

But Babycat are you prepared to gamble with your own life or those of your loved ones? Because we are all vunerable to covid 19, it's a game of Russian roulette. Are you prepared to risk it personally? I'm not. I value my own life extremely highly and those of my family. I'm not a gambler by nature and I'm not about to become one now. It's all very brave and patriotic to say we should put the economy first, but the price of doing that is paid in human life. You may get lucky and have a mild dose, or you may have a dose that you survive but with lung fibrosis that will affect you for the rest of your life, or you may well die from it alone in a hospital bed. Personally I'd like to die in my sleep of extreme old age after a heavy night of partying with my friends and family, not prematurely from some novel corona virus and merely become a statistic.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 04 2020 at 11:59pm

I'm with KiwiMum for these reasons:

1.  Money is more replaceable than people.

2.  There is no guarantee, nor even, IMO, very good odds there will be a vaccine.

3.  There is no guarantee of long-term immunity from this virus.

4.  Everybody talks about flattening the curve on the healthcare system, but it is also imperative to flatten the curve on the infrastructure/essential worker system.  Remember the movie Testament where there were no police and nobody to pick up the garbage because they were all sick?  Or in our scenario, on strike, as garbage workers in my city were last week, as Amazon workers were a few days ago?

5.  If we had enough masks to make mask-wearing mandatory...trust me, there would be cheap-@$$ companies that would prevent their employees from wearing them.  Think about it...every person in retail, food-service, the hospitality industry...Think about it -- "it doesn't look friendly to customers."  Well, in my job ( barista on the turnpike), I got the flu nearly every year from 1997-2017.  This is, I read, 2.5 times more contagious than the flu.  If I was told I wasn't allowed to wear a mask, I'm not sure how I'd feel about returning to work.  And I'm sure I'm not the only one.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (4) Thanks(4)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 5:12am

I suggest a new mantra: ERCD  = Economies Recover Corpses Don't.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 8:05am

I don't disagree that economies can recover. I agreed with what was it, that African state health minister or something who said that "we know how to restart the economy, what we don't know is how to restart the dead"

My point is that I think we may be underestimating the severity, in terms of actual deaths, from a destroyed national and world economy. We're looking at financial ruin, in my opinion, and it will be a calamitous economic reset, and perhaps not in a good way. World serfdom. Diminished life expectencies overall. Global despotism.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Thorne! Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 9:46am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I am starting to disagree, that the deaths from prolonged shutdowns won't be less than the virus. But why still do it as we have? Perhaps money, perhaps control.

Important article:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-real-reason-behind-lock-downs

Here's yet another observation in response to a picture going around at the moment that is so accurate, it almost defies gravity, quote:
"Thunberg's observation is accurate as far as it goes, but it doesn't acknowledge that the emergency is being seen by the world's governments primarily as an ECONOMIC emergency.
They acted only once it had become obvious that if they didn't, the economic damage might in effect be limitless. The tardiness of their collective responses indicates that what they are mostly interested in saving is not their people, but their economies, because if their economies go, so do the elites that control both the economies and the natural resources that feed them.
Similarly, they are so money-oriented and shortsighted that they are incapable of seeing the climate and ecosystem crises in any other terms than economic ones. The tragedy of these crises, however, is that unlike with the coronavirus crisis, governments see their impact on their economies in national terms first and foremost and are incapable of effective collective action because nationalism is almost always a zero-sum game, especially for superpowers. They are therefore not individually sufficiently motivated to act in unison. The most they are willing to do is to pretend they are, and therefore they merely blather empty promises that they have no actual intention of upholding."

— with Erik Kowal.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 10:02am

Absolutely life is worth more than money, 100%. 

But I still think people are currently under-estimating the severity of a a small, but significant and growing risk of world economic collapse, with or without the increasing mortality, especially if no viable sustaining solution before vaccine is developed. Geopolitical destabilization, including food shortages, riots, martial law, war, etc.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 10:10am

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I am starting to disagree, that the deaths from prolonged shutdowns won't be less than the virus. But why still do it as we have? Perhaps money, perhaps control.

Important article:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-bill-gates-just-reveal-real-reason-behind-lock-downs

Gates said at 30:29 in the interview that he and a large team are moving fast to test anti-virals, vaccines and other therapeutics and to bring them to market as quickly as possible.

....nah, it takes months to years to conduct these tests, move these products through FDA approval (needs to be done), ramp up production and distribute to the population. 

Folks, we will be dealing with this virus for the next several years, sorry.  As herd immunity builds up, we will gradually be able to come out of home confinement....however, we will have to live with this for 12 to 18 months, minimum.  Even after some type of therapy is developed (not a guarantee), there will be subsequent waves of this thing.  

This is an opportunity for the economy to re-invent itself.   Imagine a post-pandemic world....more cautious, fewer opportunities for direct human contact, more reliance upon automation and in-home services etc.  This isn't the future I would have selected, but it will be the future we have. 

Also, please read this:

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/tactics-from-the-right-wing-playbook-on-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR35UxQ9eL1FukHzKnqwnwn_52ArHSx2JaEf995cn9Z5aUzM86bZW-boJo4

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ViQueen24 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 10:13am

Well, people, we have all been here on this site for some time because we believed in the likelihood of a pandemic and we wanted to begin planning for it, trading ideas, etc.  What did we think would happen to the economy once that pandemic we all expected occurred?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 10:18am

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:


Folks, we will be dealing with this virus for the next several years, sorry.  As herd immunity builds up, we will gradually be able to come out of home confinement....however, we will have to live with this for 12 to 18 months, minimum.  Even after some type of therapy is developed (not a guarantee), there will be subsequent waves of this thing.  

This is an opportunity for the economy to re-invent itself.   Imagine a post-pandemic world....more cautious, fewer opportunities for direct human contact, more reliance upon automation and in-home services etc.  This isn't the future I would have selected, but it will be the future we have. 

Also, please read this: 

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/tactics-from-the-right-wing-playbook-on-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR35UxQ9eL1FukHzKnqwnwn_52ArHSx2JaEf995cn9Z5aUzM86bZW-boJo4

12-18 months?? Good Lord.

I certainly don't want to be accused of fear-mongering, whether on the pandemic impact side, or societal reactions, but this is...unprecedented. If this occurs, you are correct to be leaning towards complete systemic and economic reset.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 1:10pm

Originally posted by Technophobe Technophobe wrote:

I suggest a new mantra: ERCD  = Economies Recover Corpses Don't.

Techno, this is absolutely correct!!  Corpses don't buy new cars, don't invest in stocks etc. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 1:14pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:


Folks, we will be dealing with this virus for the next several years, sorry.  As herd immunity builds up, we will gradually be able to come out of home confinement....however, we will have to live with this for 12 to 18 months, minimum.  Even after some type of therapy is developed (not a guarantee), there will be subsequent waves of this thing.  

This is an opportunity for the economy to re-invent itself.   Imagine a post-pandemic world....more cautious, fewer opportunities for direct human contact, more reliance upon automation and in-home services etc.  This isn't the future I would have selected, but it will be the future we have. 

Also, please read this: 

https://www.rightwingwatch.org/post/tactics-from-the-right-wing-playbook-on-covid-19/?fbclid=IwAR35UxQ9eL1FukHzKnqwnwn_52ArHSx2JaEf995cn9Z5aUzM86bZW-boJo4

12-18 months?? Good Lord.

I certainly don't want to be accused of fear-mongering, whether on the pandemic impact side, or societal reactions, but this is...unprecedented. If this occurs, you are correct to be leaning towards complete systemic and economic reset.

Sorry to be so glum, but 12-18 months is what the real experts like Dr. Marc Lipsitch (Harvard Univ) are saying.  

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/there-isnt-going-be-all-clear-signal/608512/

"From a public-health standard, the pandemic will not end for another 18 months. The only complete resolution—a vaccine—could be at least that far away. The development of a successful vaccine is both difficult and not sufficient. It must also be manufactured, distributed, and administered to a nation’s citizens. Until that happens, as recent reports from the U.S. government and from scientists at London’s Imperial College point out, we will be vulnerable to subsequent waves of the new coronavirus even if the current wave happens to ebb."

Reason is that there is such a huge population of susceptible people out there, and with all the cheating on shelter-in-place going on, this virus will continue to circulate for months.  It will take a minimum of 12 months for a vaccine to be developed, tested and distributed, so if everything goes right, 12 months.  Assuming setbacks, 18 months. 

WE NEED TO TEST!!  Many of us likely have had this virus, did not have symptoms, and can now go back to work without fear of disease nor fear of infecting others.  Every living human needs to be tested ASAP to establish a true prevalence rate, determine carriers who can be isolated, and identify recovered patients who can serve on the front lines. 

CRS, DrPH
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 1:19pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I don't disagree that economies can recover. I agreed with what was it, that African state health minister or something who said that "we know how to restart the economy, what we don't know is how to restart the dead"

My point is that I think we may be underestimating the severity, in terms of actual deaths, from a destroyed national and world economy. We're looking at financial ruin, in my opinion, and it will be a calamitous economic reset, and perhaps not in a good way. World serfdom. Diminished life expectencies overall. Global despotism.

The thing is Babycat, we are already on the trajectory for a huge, unprecedented depression, and what's more, there's nothing that can be done to stop it. Think of it as a tsunami - it's already coming in and it's not going to stop any time soon, it'll just keep piling in. Even if every person went back to work today, you couldn't stop it. And, if every person did go back to work today, the scenes of horror you'd see in 4 weeks time would be worse than those in Ecuador today. And on top of that, most of the health care workers would be sick so the CFR would go sky high. 

Have you ever been on a really high rolller coaster? I have. This is that moment that you get once the roller coaster has set off and you suddenly find yourself climbing a really really steep incline, and just for a moment you think I want to get off, but you realise immediately that you can't. No matter how awful and scary the ride is, you're stuck on it until it ends. That is this moment in time. And if we live through it, it will prove to be a seminal moment in modern world history and we'll all remember where we were and how we coped. 

We need to try and stop worrying. I'm putting all my energies into planting a garden. I already have a veg garden but it's Autumn here, but still I'm planting out brassicas and planting salad crops indoors. I'm preparing all my spare beds for spring and am manuring them and mulching them in readiness. As soon as the seasons turn I'll be planting like mad because I think we'll need to be able to produce most of our own food here if we want to eat. I'm trying to focus on the positive.

You can't fix stupid.
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Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

WE NEED TO TEST!!  Many of us likely have had this virus, did not have symptoms, and can now go back to work without fear of disease nor fear of infecting others.  Every living human needs to be tested ASAP to establish a true prevalence rate, determine carriers who can be isolated, and identify recovered patients who can serve on the front lines. 

Yes we do but the current tests aren't always correct. They are giving a lot of false negatives if the wrong part is swabbed. We need an accurate antibody test and then we need to test everyone, and all those who test negative need to be retested regularly. I'm in favour of some form of wristband to indicate people's current status.

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You need a photo ID card not a wristband...fraud easy, so a photo Id with all your information on it would be better.  I agree when they get an antibody test they can let people go back to work.  Us old people will have to wait for a vaccine or take a chance. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 05 2020 at 6:15pm

Good and interesting thoughts, Kiwimom, thanks.

Now, just because I think this place needs to liven up a bit, I just post this comment from a news site I visited, and get your thoughts on it here... :) 

---

"The Spanish flu killed between 50 - 100 million Worldwide during 1918 - 1919, no economic shutdown. The Covid 19 "hoax" flu has killed 70,000 (inflated numbers) and the World economies are destroyed by their own government politicians? "

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2020 at 7:40pm

Another, well, different, point of view...


https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/04/why_accepting_two_million_covid19_deaths_may_be_better_than_a_national_lockdown.html

Why Accepting Two Million COVID-19 Deaths May be Better Than a National Lockdown

           

By Selwyn Duke            

 We’ve heard much during the Wuhan flu crisis about a “worst case scenario” of two million dead Americans, a staggering number. But missing from the national conversation is something equally important:

What’s the worst case scenario given our present course of action, largely locking down the country and freezing life like an insect stuck in amber?

What if worse coming to worst means a great depression, a descent into tyranny, millions more dead from other causes and a permanently impoverished nation?

Almost the entire virus debate has centered around whether the experts are correct about the infectivity and virulence of the disease and in their projections (which have often been drastically wrong). But even if we assume that the experts having the government’s ear — and there are dissenters who don’t — are absolutely inerrant in their expressed judgments, there’s a problem with just “listening to the health professionals’” prescriptions:

Like most everyone else, these individuals have only a narrow range of expertise; they are epidemiologists,  virologists, infectious disease specialists, etc. 

They are not epidemiologists-cum-philosophers/political scientists/sociologists/economists.

So they provide counsel on how to achieve a narrow goal contemplated from a narrow perspective. This is not a put-down. It is their job to do just that.

Congruent with this, these experts consider the health-related consequences of the disease, not the civilizational-health related consequences of their cure — which may be worse than the disease.

The latter is the job of statesmen, commentators, academics, and the wider population. All these groups, unfortunately, are found wanting in this.

Unemployment claims are at a record high, but I don’t have to tell you how the current lockdowns are ravaging our economy. Many businesses and jobs will never come back, yet this concern not only is just the iceberg’s tip, it isn’t even, as critics may say, just about “money” — because money isn’t just about “money.”

Money represents resources, people’s capacity to obtain food, shelter, clothing, health care, education and everything else that preserves life and makes it worth living. Note here that poverty is associated with a host of negative health and health-related risks, such as a higher incidence of manifold diseases, depression, anxiety, stress-related disorders, suicide, domestic violence, child abuse and crime.

Yet even more must be considered. Remember now that if the following seems radical, it is a worst case scenario. And if we can consider the worst case scenario on one side of the equation, we must for balance and perspective consider the worst case scenario on the other side as well.

What if locking down the nation means causing a great depression lasting a decade or more?

What if this economic disaster leads, as history teaches it can, to the rise of demagogues and loss of freedom?

What if there are consequently millions more deaths from other causes due to economic malaise and descent toward tyranny?

What if, in other words, we essentially destroy our civilization as we know it?

Will it have been worth it to ensure there’d be fewer Wuhan virus deaths — even two million, shocking though that number is? Civilizational destruction, something permanent, would be a steep price to pay to combat a pandemic, something temporary.

Know that I’m not insensitive to the vulnerable’s plight. Near and dear to me are two people in an extreme high-risk category and a handful of others somewhat at risk, and I have an in-law physician relative who contracted the virus and is currently treating herself with hydroxychloroquine. But I also recognize the truth of economist Thomas Sowell’s observation that sometimes in life “there are no solutions; there are only tradeoffs.” Are we making the right tradeoff now?

I’ll emphasize that my worst case scenario isn’t at all fanciful. Many are concerned about a depression resulting from our lockdowns and about the erosion of freedom as people, as people will, trade liberty for security. In fact, The New York Times, of all entities, recently ran a headline warning, “For Autocrats, and Others, Coronavirus Is a Chance to Grab Even More Power.”

“Leaders around the world have passed emergency decrees and legislation expanding their reach during the pandemic,” the paper writes in its subhead before asking, “Will they ever relinquish them?”

Anyone who grasps the nature of power — and of the power-hungry — won’t bet the answer is yes.

Now ask yourself: If the given amount of power is currently being seized, what would happen in an infinitely worse situation such as lockdown-caused depression and social upheaval?

Speaking of autocrats, the mainstream media have rightly been castigated for doing despotic China’s bidding and touting its “response” to the virus; never mind that China created this problem and that its response’s immediate effectiveness is actually unknown because Beijing lies like it breathes. But what if China has responded rightly, not in its tyrannical measures but in one respect?

What if Beijing’s apparent decision to get people back to work and accept virus-related deaths leaves it stronger over the long term? There is some possibility, a scary one, that China could emerge from this as the world’s superpower — a status it craves — under our worst case scenario.

Also consider Sweden. That it continues commerce and life largely unchanged and is striving for “herd immunity” may be instructive. Are we just prolonging the inevitable?

Of course, one lockdown motivation is to slow the virus’s spread so that hospitals aren’t overwhelmed. But Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said Wednesday that there won’t be a true turning point until a vaccine is developed. Yet some say this could be 18 months away, an eternity in lockdown terms.

In the meantime, since restoring normal commerce and freedom without experiencing increased virus contagion appears unlikely, focusing on developing herd immunity while insulating vulnerable groups may be the wiser course.

Remember, too, that we’ve been through this before. During the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, 675,000 Americans died; adjusted for today’s U.S. population this amounts to a bit more than two million people — exactly our worst case scenario number.

We weathered that pandemic, of course. But people were far different then, and, correspondingly, we’re far different politically today. If President Trump advocated the Swedish model and there were hundreds of thousands of deaths, never mind two million, every one would be laid at his doorstep and he’d likely be ousted from office (as it is, it was already suggested last month that Trump may be guilty of “negligent homicide”). The same could befall any governor acting likewise, never mind that he might have helped save the future — because the alternate future would never be known.

This is why I know certain things. No, I don’t have definitive answers; this is a fluid, serious situation with many unknowns, and we all should act responsibly and not claim knowledge we don’t possess. But I do know some questions, as posed above, that should be asked and maturely debated. I also know this won’t likely happen, given man’s nature in general and the state of our politics and media in particular.

This is why we’d better hope for a highly efficacious Wuhan virus treatment — and fast. Because if we’re going to lockdown our nation for months on end, well, we may learn the hard way that we might as well have just thrown away the key.

   Contact Selwyn Duke, follow him on Gab (preferably) or Twitter, or log on to SelwynDuke.com.

Image credit: Dorothea Lange, Wikipedia, public domain

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2020 at 7:46pm

I think a prolonged the costs of a prolonged shutdown, drawdown will be immense, and far beyond financial. Having lived in a variety of some very poor countries for some time, I can assure you,being poor, with a destroyed economic system (the US will inflate away the dollar, essentially bankrupting all future generattions), and will likely lead to immense suffering, death, crime, war, and disease. It may not be pretty. We don't live in a perfect world. The divide between the rich and poor will gape to unimaginable levels, and the middle class will essentially cease to exist. Just whose trillions of "money" do you think is being spent right now? Already, that 2.1 trillion dollar relief bill (actually it was 6 Trillion with Fed fending) amounts to $1,000,000 for every person that may have died in a 2,000,000 death worst case scenario. Now, start adding all the other costs to that now, and we'll find it will be multiples of that. I think there is now a serious possibility of US debt default, and Wall Street CDS trading shows this. Gold is going to the moon, but it will just reflect the pending collapse of the United States. The bubble of bubbles has been popped, but we're going to inflate to infinity now. China's CCP may now emerge as THE world superpower, and every person on Earth should be aghast at this thought.

That possible better economic reset some may think is coming? I think unlikely. More likely Venezuela. The Greatest Depression. Selling your furniture in the streets. Breads and circuses. Nationalist tin-pot "orange republic demagogues and the end of the Republic. We all imagined worst-case scenario in deaths, now we need to imagine worst-case scenarios in enforced 12-18 rolling "lockdowns".

I think President Trump understands this, and is trying to find a balance. Godspeed to him.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2020 at 8:46pm

And an opposing opinion, bolstered by evidence from the 1918 pandemic, that early and prolonged shutdowns were easier to recover from than those shutting down late, not enough, or not long enough:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/03/upshot/coronavirus-cities-social-distancing-better-employment.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2020 at 8:52pm

BC ya gotta lighten up. Look at the positives, you have air, you have water, you have food, the lights are on, starbucks is open (well the drive through anyway) the internet is still there, it's spring time, the sun is going to come up tomorrow and there is going to be a tomorrow presumably. Those are all good things!!!  Personally I think we dodged a bullet with this virus. If the CFR was 20, 30, 40% for this virus then society as we know it would be over. It could be much much worse, but it's not. This will pass and the world will keep on spinning and life will go on. Buck up BC it ain't nothing but a thing.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 06 2020 at 10:27pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

I think a prolonged the costs of a prolonged shutdown, drawdown will be immense, and far beyond financial. Having lived in a variety of some very poor countries for some time, I can assure you,being poor, with a destroyed economic system (the US will inflate away the dollar, essentially bankrupting all future generattions), and will likely lead to immense suffering, death, crime, war, and disease. It may not be pretty. We don't live in a perfect world. The divide between the rich and poor will gape to unimaginable levels, and the middle class will essentially cease to exist. Just whose trillions of "money" do you think is being spent right now? Already, that 2.1 trillion dollar relief bill (actually it was 6 Trillion with Fed fending) amounts to $1,000,000 for every person that may have died in a 2,000,000 death worst case scenario. Now, start adding all the other costs to that now, and we'll find it will be multiples of that. I think there is now a serious possibility of US debt default, and Wall Street CDS trading shows this. Gold is going to the moon, but it will just reflect the pending collapse of the United States. The bubble of bubbles has been popped, but we're going to inflate to infinity now. China's CCP may now emerge as THE world superpower, and every person on Earth should be aghast at this thought.

That possible better economic reset some may think is coming? I think unlikely. More likely Venezuela. The Greatest Depression. Selling your furniture in the streets. Breads and circuses. Nationalist tin-pot "orange republic demagogues and the end of the Republic. We all imagined worst-case scenario in deaths, now we need to imagine worst-case scenarios in enforced 12-18 rolling "lockdowns".

I think President Trump understands this, and is trying to find a balance. Godspeed to him.

You are worrying too much and getting in a state about this unnecessarily. The US has been on the verge of debt default for years. Your whole economy is built around a debt so huge it can never be paid back and has to continuously be extended to keep going. Whoever is the current president has to keep juggling all those balls until he (or hopefully she) will pass them on to the next president. At some point, it will become too much and will all come crashing down. Trump doesn't want to be the one who drops the balls but honestly, there's probably nothing he can do to prevent it right now. He's printing money as fast as he can but that can't continue forever.

As for the gap between rich and poor widening, the rich are being crucified financially at the moment. Rich people don't keep money under the bed, they invest it and those investments are losing value fast. Now some may well try and ride it out in the hope that the share value will recover but that is unlikely because it was overinflated to start with, and some companies will go under and so that money will be lost forever. So many people will lose their accumulated wealth. Pension pots will fail, or have been emptied already by the falling markets, and people with assets that were previously earning them income may well find that these become a financial burden instead (I'm thinking property on which rent is no longer being paid for example). If anything, this economic crisis will start to redress the balance somewhat between the rich and the poor and will narrow the gap. 

And as for the idea that it might be better to lose 2million people than have an economic meltdown, well the truth is you don't get to choose either / or. If you choose to have 2 million deaths, you'll still get the meltdown. Whatever you choose to do, you'll get the meltdown. It's unavoidable at this point. If you choose the deaths, the disruption to America's economy will be simply huge with a sick and depleted workforce, with healthy workers staying home to care for sick family members. Trump is between a rock and a hard place right now.

As for the individual, well it really depends on the financial situation you were in at the start of this. If you have a mortgage or pay rent, this is a worrying time. If you own your house outright, then not so much. If you have a pension pot invested that you rely on for income right now, oh dear, you may have to go back to work. If you are employed then you may well need to take a pay cut, or you may lose your job and need to find another one, which won't be easy with so many others in the same boat. 

I think we'll see many people having to take minimum wage work just to survive in the short term, and many people defaulting on their mortgage or rent. 

The reset I think we'll see coming is one that is long overdue. We've all become so consumeristic and so high maintenance that it's ridiculous. My parents in the 80's had one phone, in the hallway, one TV in the lounge, 2 cars - which was highly unusual, and just the normal bills to pay. These days we have mobiles, internet, spotify, netflix, not to mention all the personal maintenance servicing we pay for - hair colour, nails, waxing, eyelash extensions, gym memberships. I'm as guilty as any in how I live and frankly it is obscene that we in the western world feel so entitled to take more than our fair share of the worlds resources. One third of the world doesn't have access at home to potable water and we're worrying about our ensuite bathrooms. It's time things evened out a bit. It'll be painful but there it is.

You can't fix stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2020 at 8:05am

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/michael-big-short-burry-blasts-unjustifiable-lockdowns-most-devastating-economic-force

Michael 'Big Short' Burry Blasts "Unjustifiable" Lockdowns As "Most Devastating Economic Force In History"

Infamous for his massive (winning) "big short" bet against mortgage securities before the 2008 financial crisis, Michael Burry, the doctor-turned-hedge-fund-manager has been on a multi-day Twitter rant claiming that the lockdowns intended to contain the COVID-19 pandemic are worse than the disease itself.

Echoing the thoughts of many, Burry opined in a series of tweets over the past two weeks that the government-enforced lockdowns and business shutdowns across America may trigger one of the country's deepest-ever economic contractions, and further still, are not necessary to contain the epidemic (on March 22nd).

COVID-19 policy cannot be settled by CYA politicians career ID docs. Too much hammer/nail and too little common sense.  

POTUS must reflect the interests of the working class and small business here - the economy cannot crash 30% to save the 0.2%.

Set America Free!

If COVID-19 testing were universal, the fatality rate would be less than 0.2%.

This is no justication for sweeping government policies, lacking any and all nuance, that destroy the lives, jobs, and businesses of the other 99.8%.

Furthermore, Burry - who earned his M.D. at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine - has also dared to say that some controversial treatments for COVID-19, such as the malaria drug hydroxycloroquine, should be made more widely available (on March 24).

Prudent plan:

1) Standardize on chloroquine and azithromycin -cheap and available

2) Sick and elderly voluntarily shelter in place. 

3) Americans lead their normal lives with extra hand washing and special care if around elderly.

Saving the economy means life, not murder.

Additionally, in an email to Bloomberg News, Burry wrote that "universal stay-at-home is the most devastating economic force in modern history... And it is man-made. It very suddenly reverses the gains of underprivileged groups, kills and creates drug addicts, beats and terrorizes women and children in violent now-jobless households, and more. It bleeds deep anguish and suicide."

Additionally, as Bloomberg's Reed Stevenson reports, Burry responded to questions via email to offer more thoughts on the pandemic and the response to the outbreak...

How the Pandemic Happened

This is a new form of coronavirus that emanated from a country, China, that unfortunately covered it up. That was the original sin. It transmits very easily, and within the first month it was likely all over the world. Very poor testing infrastructure created an information vacuum as cases ramped, ventilator shortages were projected. Politicians panicked and media filled the space with their own ignorance and greed. It was a toxic mix that led to the shutdown of the U.S., and hence much of the world economy.”

“In hindsight, each country should have immediately ramped up rapid field testing of at-risk groups. But as I understand it, the CDC was tasked with some of this, and botched it, and other departments were no better. The bureaucracy failed in a good number of countries. Turf wars and incompetence has ruled the day. So the political cover for that failure on the part of the technocrats and politicians is a very harsh stay-at-home policy.”

The U.S. Policy Response

“If there was ever a time for the government to stimulate with fiscal and monetary policy, it is now. Unfortunately, the U.S. has been adding $3 for every $1 of new GDP over a very long time, and interest rates were already near zero. Still, nothing is more important now that loans to small and mid-sized businesses, and the U.S. Treasury, backed by the Fed, is providing that liquidity, which is vital.”

Potential Treatments

It’s pretty clear that hydrochloroquine is doing something good for many Covid-19 patients. The standard in medicine is a placebo-controlled double-blind study. But there is no time for that. The technocrats at the top are getting this wrong. Do the studies, make the vaccines, but allow doctors to have what they feel is working now. Don’t take tools or drugs out of the treating doctors’ hands. Trump should use the Defense Production Act more liberally in this area.

“A more nuanced approach would be for at risk groups — the obese, old and already-sick — to shelter in place, to execute widespread mandatory testing, and to ID and track as necessary while allowing society to function. Again, Trump should get the massive contract manufacturers like Flextronics to make testing machines.”

Getting Back to Normal

“I would lift stay-at-home orders except for known risk groups. We already know certain conditions that are predictive of severe disease. Especially since young healthy lungs tend to be resistant, I would let the virus circulate in the population that is not likely to get severe disease from it. This is the only path that comes close to balancing the needs of all groups. Vaccines are not coming anytime soon, so natural immunity is the only way out for now. Every day, every week in the current situation is ruining innumerable lives in a criminally unjust manner.”

“When it comes to vaccines, coronaviruses are not known for imparting enduring immunity, and this will be one big challenge. It seems the genetic code is relatively conserved, and this will help the development of the vaccine. But we’re still looking at the end of the year. In the meantime, the world is an innovative place, and I expect many effective treatments — both new and repurposed — shortly. The question then will be regulation, expense and availability.”

“Medically, the new normal will be the old normal. As long as innovation continues, medicine will conquer everything in our way.”

Japan’s Response

“I believe Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is trying his best to manage through the situation without shuttering the economy. He sees what it has done to the U.S., and would rather not force a shut in, but instead asks for common sense. Japan has certain features — such as a largely lawful and well-educated society — that make this more possible. As do Taiwan, Singapore, Korea.”

Business Recovery

Economically speaking, we have to realize the policy-driven demand shock will be resolved by 2021. But Japan and the U.S. are putting more than 20% of the GDP into new fiscal stimulus, and easy money will be the rule. Those things will all bring stock and debt markets back.”

Countries will also look to bring supply chains home, and many employees will need retraining with higher cost. When we start working and playing again, inflation may be in store. The other big point is that consumers have learned new behaviors, which will drive business churn.”


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2020 at 3:25pm

The new "immunity certificates" ("your papers, please") being discussed, essentially "permission slip" to get out of what is effectively house arrest and go to work or travel should alarm every freedom loving person. "Just until the emergency is over"...yeah, sure. The virus is the new" terrorist." We are at war, don't you know. Give us your blood/DNA, get your bracelet. Line up and take your vaccine. Line up for your weekly ration. Willing surrender of sovereignty.

It's literally become the movie "Contagion" except with a much lower, and essentially unproven CFR.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2020 at 5:45pm

Papers are already required in many states for farmers to go buy feed for their livestock, seed to plant, pick up fertilizer/weed&bug dope... 

Denmark (I think it was) announced mandatory vaccines - considering there isn't yet (& may never be) a vaccine for this...this is just an excuse to push through laws when ppl are 'safely locked in homes' and can't protest.

Government overreach being displayed in MANY countries...

Yes, police state is coming/here and we are the frogs in boiling pot... JMO

If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2020 at 7:09pm

This post will get ppl talking... so, our Alberta premier just had a televised press release stating  "as many as 6,600 people could die as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak in the province if people don’t follow the government’s isolation protocols'

Now that sounds like a lot until you realize Alberta's population is 4.43544Million... so our CFR will be (drum roll please) 0.00148801 - IF we reach 'as many as 6600'....

So we have been 'locked in our homes', one adult only per household to go shopping, most (BIG most) of our small and medium sized businesses have been forced to close, or only let 1 customer in at a time etc.  and our prime minister has stated that this (these conditions) could easily last till July or August.  Which means we have pretty much ensured the collapse of the economy - for potentially (worst case scenario) 0.0015% IE the flu!!!  AND as we're learning more about Covid - likelihood it's a blood/oxygen issue vs true respiratory (I realize this is pending but it is the direction it looks like knowledge is moving) that it could actually end up being easy and cheap to treat with known/used for years medications - which would answer many prayers...what is really going on?!?!?!

If it's to be - it's up to me!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Newbie1A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2020 at 7:20pm

Originally posted by BabyCat BabyCat wrote:

The new "immunity certificates" ("your papers, please") being discussed, essentially "permission slip" to get out of what is effectively house arrest and go to work or travel should alarm every freedom loving person. "Just until the emergency is over"...yeah, sure.

Oh come'on Kitty, you can trust the government - they have a proven track record with things like this.  Take say...the income tax act.  Not sure about the USA but here in Canada it was put in temporarily and called the War Time Measures Act and was passed with 2 main points - a) it would raise funds to fight the war & b) it would be removed immediately after the war... (please read with smooth puuurrring voice of heavy sarcasm and a face pawm)!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BabyCat Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 07 2020 at 9:53pm

Agreed.

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