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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

This news broadcast is really bothering me.

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Little House View Drop Down
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    Posted: April 30 2020 at 12:12pm

I watched this CNN broadcast yesterday (it is from the day before) and the numbers that they predict just do not compute in my brain. Sometimes I get stuck  and can’t see the forest for the trees.  Can you help me understand?

Here is a link to the broadcast:https://youtu.be/YbjrFqk32qM

Here is a screenshot of the table that is bothering me: 

This screenshot shows that on April 8 they were predicting that there would be 60,415 deaths by August 4th.  On April 22 they revised it to 67,641 and on the day before yesterday (the 28th) they were predicting 74,073 by August 4th.

The problem that I am having is that there have been over 1000 deaths a day for the last 28 days (26 when this was broadcast).  At 1000 deaths a day we hit 74,000 in 17 days, not 3 months.  (Though my charts show us hitting 74,000 in about a week.) Oh, and 1,000 a day is conservative, we have had many days over 2,000.  This 74,000 dead by Aug. is so unrealistic that I just can’t understand where the number is coming from. 

So, if you are a number geek like me, help me out here.  Where is my mistake? Why are my numbers so much worse than theirs? 

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2020 at 10:31pm

The best that I can guess is that they are hoping for a very strong "flattening of the curve".  


There is also a very strong "narrative" that this is not really that bad, which seems to fit in with some political narratives, that leads to low estimates being given out. 

To move the debate out of the States (to avoid heated political discussion) on 5th March an estimate for the figures for the UK were given as 7 500 - 20 000 deaths.  Last night the UK government announced a total of 26 771 deaths.      In part the overshoot of even the high estimate is because of a change of definition where by the earlier estimate was only hospital deaths, and the figures for the last few days (from the UK) have included care homes and other community deaths.

I suspect that most governments are trying to down play the eventual death toll, in part this might be to avoid panic.  A panic at the early stages might have created more problems, so while I think the giving out of low estimates is wrong, I can understand why some people might be willing to do that.


- - - -

ps. having worked with data all my life, it is encouraging to see that people are willing to update their estimates as more data comes in.   It gives me a little more confidence in the estimate, although I know that for others it makes them very insecure.

As the three estimates show a rising trend, I would expect that the final toll, for the day after my Mother's Birthday (I don't know why they choose to use her anniversary for this!), will continue to rise.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2020 at 12:27am

DJ-I think it is wise to look at excess deaths statistics not on "counted cases" that may or not be tested. The economic and social impact on the US is shocking. 

[url]https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-04-30/georgia-tech-simulator-predicts-23-million-deaths-us-august-if-social-distancing[/url]

(DJ The article is talking of 2.3 million deaths not 23 million, point is what policies are there-social distancing, masks or nothing ?)

The coronavirus has been mitigated by social distancing measures, but a second wave of the virus is expected when those measures are lifted. Now a simulator offers guidance on when the second wave of the coronavirus might hit based on when social distancing measures are lifted.

Easing social distancing to result in second wave of coronavirus

Georgia Tech collaborated with Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard University in developing the COVID-19 simulator. Georgia is one of the first states to lift COVID-19 restrictions, so experts across the country are watching carefully to see what impact lifting those restrictions will have on the infection and death totals.

According to 11 Alive, Georgia Tech's simulator suggests the second wave of coronavirus cases could spike about two or three months after the social distancing restrictions are lifted. If the restrictions were lifted four weeks from now, the simulator suggests Georgia could see over 23,000 deaths by August.

However, if they continue for 12 more weeks, it projects only 1,940 deaths from COVID-19. If the second wave of the coronavirus brings a significant increase in the number of cases, it could mean that social distancing measures will be put back in place.

If minimal restrictions were imposed, the US nationwide would see 2,280,000 deaths by August according to the simulator.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Little House View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2020 at 4:55am

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

The best that I can guess is that they are hoping for a very strong "flattening of the curve".  


There is also a very strong "narrative" that this is not really that bad, which seems to fit in with some political narratives, that leads to low estimates being given out. 

To move the debate out of the States (to avoid heated political discussion) on 5th March an estimate for the figures for the UK were given as 7 500 - 20 000 deaths.  Last night the UK government announced a total of 26 771 deaths.      In part the overshoot of even the high estimate is because of a change of definition where by the earlier estimate was only hospital deaths, and the figures for the last few days (from the UK) have included care homes and other community deaths.

I suspect that most governments are trying to down play the eventual death toll, in part this might be to avoid panic.  A panic at the early stages might have created more problems, so while I think the giving out of low estimates is wrong, I can understand why some people might be willing to do that.


- - - -

ps. having worked with data all my life, it is encouraging to see that people are willing to update their estimates as more data comes in.   It gives me a little more confidence in the estimate, although I know that for others it makes them very insecure.

As the three estimates show a rising trend, I would expect that the final toll, for the day after my Mother's Birthday (I don't know why they choose to use her anniversary for this!), will continue to rise.  

Yes, I guess that all countries are downplaying the future.  Maybe they are playing a psychology game of getting the larger numbers out there and then moving the date that they hit closer and closer?  The thing is, deaths lag cases by a predictable amount, so predicting deaths out a week is easy.  I guess their forecast is technically correct.  We will have over 74,000 deaths in the US by August 4.  It will just be WAY over 74,000.

Seeing these numbers be so far off is really scaring me though.  The number to watch for the US is 330,000.  If we reach that number of dead, it means that 1 in 1,000 are dead and that most people in the country know someone who died.  That will raise the fear level A LOT.  Until I really started looking this week, I didn’t think that we would reach that level (at least not in the next year), now I am not so sure.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Sheep Lady Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2020 at 7:33am

Originally posted by Little House Little House wrote:

I watched this CNN broadcast yesterday (it is from the day before) and the numbers that they predict just do not compute in my brain. Sometimes I get stuck  and can’t see the forest for the trees.  Can you help me understand?

Here is a link to the broadcast:https://youtu.be/YbjrFqk32qM

Here is a screenshot of the table that is bothering me: 

This screenshot shows that on April 8 they were predicting that there would be 60,415 deaths by August 4th.  On April 22 they revised it to 67,641 and on the day before yesterday (the 28th) they were predicting 74,073 by August 4th.

The problem that I am having is that there have been over 1000 deaths a day for the last 28 days (26 when this was broadcast).  At 1000 deaths a day we hit 74,000 in 17 days, not 3 months.  (Though my charts show us hitting 74,000 in about a week.) Oh, and 1,000 a day is conservative, we have had many days over 2,000.  This 74,000 dead by Aug. is so unrealistic that I just can’t understand where the number is coming from. 

So, if you are a number geek like me, help me out here.  Where is my mistake? Why are my numbers so much worse than theirs? 

Maybe yours are real.  Just a thought.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2020 at 5:48pm

Little House, 

I can’t see your numbers being that far off. As you mentioned, we have had days where the death toll has been well over 1,000.

I am wondering if perhaps they are “hoping” (I can’t think of a better term!) that down the road, some of these deaths will be found to have not been caused by COVID? That’s just a thought. We are in a pickle for sure — so many people desperately need to start bringing in some income, yet getting back to a more normal life will certainly result in more deaths. I’m keeping an eye on Georgia to see what we might expect. 

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Little House View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2020 at 6:05pm

I am pretty confident in saying we will be at 74,000 in about a week.  That is the most terrifying thing.  That little old me with a spreadsheet and a basic understanding of numbers can do better than those advising the leaders of the country.  Surely they know this too and for some reason don’t want to say.

But didn’t we see this in the beginning with BabyCat’s numbers?  He had them right, when all the official predictions were way off.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2020 at 6:34pm

Where is Babycat?  Has she posted lately?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 01 2020 at 10:36pm

I noticed that in the data presented to WHO for 1st May, USA reported 2,909 new deaths for one day.    It is looking like the figure for 4th August will be reached very very soon (almost three months early!).  


The death toll is not likely to be nearly as bad as some of the early estimates of what it would be if no action was taken, but it is also a lot more than some of the optimistic estimates (that all countries seem to latch onto).    

One further thing that might keep the death toll lower is learning about how to treat symptomatic cases before they get to bad.   There is still a lot to learn, but the lock-downs leading to a flattening of the curve have given medical researchers some time to come up with suggestions.


[ps. Babycat has been "missing for a while" - she made a post that some people took as suggesting that older people should be allowed to die - a post that she received a lot of flank for, and because of that criticism  she said that she would leave this forum.]

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 04 2020 at 6:16pm

So CNN had a new story out today: https://youtu.be/rBXZhFekv6Q. This one says that by June we will have 3,000 deaths per day.  Of course, no mention of the previous story. It doesn’t take much math to see that we will be way beyond 74,000 total death by then, so of course they didn’t mention it.  Also notice how they changed from cumulative numbers to daily numbers.  I can’t decide if they are trying to deceive, or just don’t understand the math well enough to explain it.

Today they showed a grainy chart: 

The chart is almost impossible to read, but if I made it out correctly, it looks like 3,000 deaths a day is the end of the red line.  See that red shaded area, it is considered probable that the actual deaths would fall in that region (I think the top of it is 5,000), with they gray area being low probability but possible.  But those blue dots, those are the actual number of people who died each day.  Isn’t funny how they are mostly in the gray area?  I wonder what that means for the future of the blue dots?

After watching this video, I did some digging and found that this document was “leaked,” and is just one prediction.  But those numbers look pretty realistic to me. (Well, actually, I think that the upward trend will begin sooner than the chart shows, but we will see.)

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 04 2020 at 7:23pm

Look guys we will most likely have 100K dead by December.  We had 60K dead from Flu last year.  People like me old and with some problems need to stay home so we do not die...if we don't we will be taking chances with our lives.  NOW those poor people in assisted living and nursing homes many of them will die just because the people who take care of them will expose them to Covid19,  just will happen.   People should wear masks to help not spread the virus but other than that life must go on!  

I  have s son who is the only thing I have in this world and I could lose him to Covid19 and I pray every day that it will not kill him.   But he has to go to school and work.  He has to live!

So yes there will be deaths until there are therapies that keep people from dying or a vaccine that works.    


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 05 2020 at 5:07am

The August prediction is now 135,000 dead.  https://youtu.be/ZLnI2aIHjGw

Sigh.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 05 2020 at 7:03pm

LittleHouse, it's probably going to go up again before August.  With States opening up, some not in a safe way or following Fauci's recommended protocol, it's going to get ugly.  I though I saw that the year end total will be approximately 235,000 dead by December.  If this keeps up, I fear it will be adjusted higher as things go forward.  

I'm very glad to be in NY right now.  Cuomo has already warned us "downstate" NYC-metro area isn't going to be having restrictions listed anytime soon.  Its going to be a hardship for many.  But what price does one put on a life?  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 07 2020 at 3:37am

It took 7 days, not 3 months.  I know that it is petty, but I wanted to document that the US passed the prediction yesterday on May the 6th.

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