Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk |
This will be me.... |
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Tabitha111
Adviser Group Joined: January 11 2020 Location: Virginia Status: Offline Points: 11640 |
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Posted: March 28 2020 at 1:47pm |
(This will be me I am sure of it....staying in until an antibody test is widespread or a vaccine) “I'm in the really high-risk group. I've heard that even China has not reached herd immunity. So will I have to continue social distancing until a vaccine is found?” — Faith Markle in Madison, Wis. No one knows for sure — and more is being learned about the virus each day — but right now distancing is the only tool health officials have to protect people from the disease. “Without a vaccine or a drug to stop infections, the best hope is to break the chain of transmission one infection at a time,” Post science reporter Joel Achenbach wrote in a rundown of everything we know about the disease. Left to its own devices, the coronavirus is very contagious, but strict quarantine measures, such as those China imposed, can effectively reduce or stop it from spreading within a population. But until a vaccine is developed — “likely to take a year or more” — there is no guarantee the virus won't take off again when quarantines are relaxed. |
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'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius |
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CRS, DrPH
Expert Level Adviser Joined: January 20 2014 Location: Arizona Status: Offline Points: 26660 |
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This is science's best guess on how this will go....it will take one year to 18 months to develop, TEST, license and distribute an effective vaccine. Until then, yes, we will have to social distance, especially if we are in a high-risk category (I am, at age 65). However, if we test-test-test like crazy, we might find that there is a substantial herd-immunity in place, and we can start to relax a bit. My colleague, Dr. Marc Lipsitch, wrote about this in his article - please read, it is a very important article: |
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CRS, DrPH
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