Threat of worse Swine Flu not over yet

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 Pandemics have produced deadly late-winter waves.

It is a little too soon to breathe a sigh of relief as many of those making money on happy shoppers would have us do. We have had some truly fierce times in the past where diseases pick up speed after the New Year. For one, this particular Pandemic started in March- which truly makes the entire seasonal cycle off base- and hit with a vengeance in April 28- and very hard in May- totally opposite of traditional cycles. 

In fact the 1918 mother of all flu Pandemics (some say) started in the early spring similar to this one and had one of the highest death tolls for a Pandemic. 

We have a considerable number who are now ready to pack up and go home and say the worst is over. 

What happened in 1918?  Well more interesting ... what happened in 1919?  In the 1918 Pandemic - not as much- a weaker third wave. However this has not been true for all Pandemics and may not be true for this one. 

An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million 
        persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) 
        during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally 
        severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other 
        influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated 
        at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as 
        high as 100 million (7).

We had a wrap up with as many as 100 million dead. 

However one can push the comparison with this one and 1918 one too far.  And that may be the case here. 

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979-G1.htm

We didn't have anti-virals in 1918. We didn't have efficient bioweapons labs either. People were not messing with the H1N1 mixing it with H5N1 at CDC. 

And factory farming as we have it now or jets to spread the disease around. 

Older diseases couldn't spread well because they didn't last long enough to efficiently spread globally.  Now they don't have to last as long (48-72hr) to circle the globe. 

Its not the same game as we played in 1918. So- we are not out of the woods yet. 

Medclinician

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Medclinician Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: July 08 2009 Status: Offline Points: 23322	Post Options Post Reply Quote Medclinician Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Threat of worse Swine Flu not over yet Posted: December 09 2009 at 4:46am
	Pandemics have produced deadly late-winter waves. It is a little too soon to breathe a sigh of relief as many of those making money on happy shoppers would have us do. We have had some truly fierce times in the past where diseases pick up speed after the New Year. For one, this particular Pandemic started in March- which truly makes the entire seasonal cycle off base- and hit with a vengeance in April 28- and very hard in May- totally opposite of traditional cycles. In fact the 1918 mother of all flu Pandemics (some say) started in the early spring similar to this one and had one of the highest death tolls for a Pandemic. We have a considerable number who are now ready to pack up and go home and say the worst is over. What happened in 1918? Well more interesting ... what happened in 1919? In the 1918 Pandemic - not as much- a weaker third wave. However this has not been true for all Pandemics and may not be true for this one. An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high as 100 million (7). We had a wrap up with as many as 100 million dead. However one can push the comparison with this one and 1918 one too far. And that may be the case here. http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol12no01/05-0979-G1.htm We didn't have anti-virals in 1918. We didn't have efficient bioweapons labs either. People were not messing with the H1N1 mixing it with H5N1 at CDC. And factory farming as we have it now or jets to spread the disease around. Older diseases couldn't spread well because they didn't last long enough to efficiently spread globally. Now they don't have to last as long (48-72hr) to circle the globe. Its not the same game as we played in 1918. So- we are not out of the woods yet. Medclinician

Medclinician Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: July 08 2009 Status: Offline Points: 23322	Post Options Post Reply Quote Medclinician Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: December 09 2009 at 5:53am
	Now Tech- and I think we can do this in a cordial manner- here is what you are basically putting out there As per this.. the party is over. Week 42 was a whopper and week 47 pathetic. You must admit the CFR was so bad this reeks of a Baxter designer virus to vaccinate the planet. You cannot even see this as a sane attempt to snuff the feeders. This would have been hanta affair and there is Hanta that can do it. Problem is - it is not race selective. The Israelis were working on it- which is rather stretching it since their genes are a rather close match their enemies.

Medclinician Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Valued Member Since 2006 Joined: July 08 2009 Status: Offline Points: 23322	Post Options Post Reply Quote Medclinician Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: December 09 2009 at 5:55am
	However, as a chaser there is a problem in Utah- very hushed own but... Rachael Herlighy of the Utah Department of Health told ABC4's Ross Becker that it is an encouraging sign that the cases are leveling off, but she warns that the level of swine flu in Utah is still very high, higher than epidemic thresholds so we cannot let down our guard. "The amount of influenza we are seeing is still typical of what we might see in the middle of an influenza season, so it's really still quite a bit of activity.", she said.