Top Secret/Sensitive

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WEB EXCLUSIVE 
By Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball
Updated: 4:20 p.m. ET Oct. 12, 2005
Oct. 12, 2005 - As if they didn�t have their hands full with Iraq and terrorism, U.S. intelligence agencies are being drawn into the debate over whether the United States is imminently threatened by a deadly outbreak of bird influenza and whether the Bush administration has adequately prepared for such an epidemic.

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		Over the last two weeks, the administration has held bird flu briefings classified �Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information� for members of both houses of Congress, according to intelligence and congressional officials. A counterterrorism official indicated that the intelligence community is also studying whether it would be possible for terrorists to somehow exploit the avian flu virus and use it against the United States, though there is no evidence that terrorists have in any way tried to do so.
The intelligence community also recently distributed inside the government an illustrated booklet, �Avian Influenza and the Threat of Pandemic Influenza,� marked �Unclassified/For Official Use Only� that highlights the dangers of a global outbreak. The booklet, a copy of which was obtained by NEWSWEEK, cites unidentified "experts� who believe that H5N1, a bird flu strain now circulating in Asia, could spread around the world as a pandemic and cause mass fatalities. (Scientists define a pandemic as a disease for which there is no certain treatment and to which humans have no natural immunity.)
According to the intelligence document, the World Health Organization is warning that if a pandemic outbreak occurs, �as much as one-fifth of the world�s population could become ill, at least 30 million people worldwide could require hospitalization, and at least 2 million people could die.� According to the booklet, however, other experts �warn that far more could die, with some estimates as high as 180 million� in the event that a new pandemic virus is as potent as the �Spanish flu� virus which caused massive casualties in 1918.
Most scientists say the likelihood of casualties on this scale is small. But alarming figures like these in recent weeks caught the attention of President George W. Bush and other White House aides. The White House is anxious to ensure that the administration won�t be blindsided by what has been portrayed as a potential �bio-Katrina,� according to one administration consultant who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject. 
Three Capitol Hill officials familiar with the contents of the top-secret briefings, which were open to congressional leaders of both parties as well as senior staffers with appropriate security clearances, said there was little if any information imparted during the sessions that had not already appeared in the press. Two officials indicated that the secrets in the briefing related to intelligence raising questions about the thoroughness with which foreign governments were monitoring and disclosing information about the spread of bird flu in their countries.

The briefings were staged principally by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), but a senior representative of the intelligence community was also present, according to administration officials. A spokeswoman for HHS declined to explain why the department considered the briefings classified. She would only say that the substance of the briefings related to �general issues of avian flu and pandemic preparedness plans.�
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An intelligence official told NEWSWEEK: �The briefings did contain classified information. The reason the information is classified is because some of it was acquired through clandestine means. The DNI [the office of Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte] works hand in hand with HHS on a range of issues.�
A leading public-health expert questioned the wisdom of discussing epidemiological policy in secret. Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University�s school of public health, said, �This is old-fashioned cold war secrecy being applied to a public-health issue--a very bad idea.� Redlener has criticized President Bush and other administration officials for hinting recently that in the event of a pandemic bird flu outbreak, the federal government might rely heavily on the military to establish quarantine zones and restrict public movement to limit the possible spread of disease.
Redlener and other experts say that the United States is seriously unprepared to cope with an avian flu outbreak, although there is no clear indication if or when such a pandemic might strike the United States. According to the intelligence-community paper, the World Health Organization has reported that since 1997, 132 people have been reported to have contracted the H5N1 strain, and �so far about half of the people infected� have died. 
According to the intelligence booklet, complications caused by the H5N1 virus resemble those of the deadly flu outbreak of 1918, and this particular virus strain is of �particular concern� because it has passed from birds to humans, and, in rare cases, may have also been transmitted from person to person. According to the document, human cases of H5N1 have been confirmed in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, and the virus has been detected in birds in Japan, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia, Russia and South Korea. News reports last week also indicated new bird flu cases were under investigation in Turkey and Romania. Also last week, scientists revealed that the killer 1918 flu appeared to come from an avian virus that mutated slightly to allow for human-to-human transmission.

Despite H5N1�s reported mortality rate of 50 percent or more, Dr. Redlener says that by the time such a virus did arrive in the United States, its strength might be significantly degraded. But he notes that in the case of the 1918 Spanish flu, the eventual mortality rate of the virus turned out to be around 2 percent, yet millions still died. Experts note, however, that there is no certainty that North America will be swept by H5N1 in the next few months, or at any point in the foreseeable future.
What is vexing the Bush administration and other public-health professionals is the fact that the United States is not particularly well prepared in the event a bird flu pandemic does strike in the near future. Presently, only one or two drugs are regarded as effective treatments for this type of influenza, and it is not certain that even the known drugs would be effective against a particularly virulent strain. Even if the drugs do prove effective, the United States is behind other countries in ordering the drug which experts say has the most potential to be effective against bird flu--a Roche Laboratories product called Tamiflu. 
Meanwhile, President Bush met last Friday with executives from vaccine manufacturing companies to urge them to expand U.S. capacity to make vaccines to protect against a possible flu pandemic. Manufacturers have complained that making flu vaccines carries burdensome financial and legal risks, and note that new vaccines have to be made fresh every winter to keep up with anticipated mutations in the virus. 
HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt is currently on a trip to several countries in Asia to get a firsthand look at measures some countries are taking to contain the spread of known bird flu cases. The best defense against a deadly flu pandemic would be stopping it where it starts.

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maryk Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List V.I.P. Member Joined: February 25 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 168	Post Options Post Reply Quote maryk Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Topic: Top Secret/Sensitive Posted: March 09 2006 at 8:54am
	WEB EXCLUSIVE By Michael Isikoff and Mark Hosenball Updated: 4:20 p.m. ET Oct. 12, 2005 Oct. 12, 2005 - As if they didn�t have their hands full with Iraq and terrorism, U.S. intelligence agencies are being drawn into the debate over whether the United States is imminently threatened by a deadly outbreak of bird influenza and whether the Bush administration has adequately prepared for such an epidemic. <>ad_nw('2'); < =1.1 src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/newsweek.national/;dir=;kw=;pos=ad2;sz=300x250;ad=showcase;tile=2;ord=996325142762261500?"> < = src="http://m.2mdn.net/879366/MotifExternal_01_01.js"> < = src="http://m.2mdn.net/879366/globalTemplate_13_08.js"> < = src="http://amch.questionmarket.com/adscgen/st.php?survey_num=210208&site=12237499&code=13646438&randnum=408052"> Over the last two weeks, the administration has held bird flu briefings classified �Top Secret/Sensitive Compartmented Information� for members of both houses of Congress, according to intelligence and congressional officials. A counterterrorism official indicated that the intelligence community is also studying whether it would be possible for terrorists to somehow exploit the avian flu virus and use it against the United States, though there is no evidence that terrorists have in any way tried to do so. The intelligence community also recently distributed inside the government an illustrated booklet, �Avian Influenza and the Threat of Pandemic Influenza,� marked �Unclassified/For Official Use Only� that highlights the dangers of a global outbreak. The booklet, a copy of which was obtained by NEWSWEEK, cites unidentified "experts� who believe that H5N1, a bird flu strain now circulating in Asia, could spread around the world as a pandemic and cause mass fatalities. (Scientists define a pandemic as a disease for which there is no certain treatment and to which humans have no natural immunity.) According to the intelligence document, the World Health Organization is warning that if a pandemic outbreak occurs, �as much as one-fifth of the world�s population could become ill, at least 30 million people worldwide could require hospitalization, and at least 2 million people could die.� According to the booklet, however, other experts �warn that far more could die, with some estimates as high as 180 million� in the event that a new pandemic virus is as potent as the �Spanish flu� virus which caused massive casualties in 1918. Most scientists say the likelihood of casualties on this scale is small. But alarming figures like these in recent weeks caught the attention of President George W. Bush and other White House aides. The White House is anxious to ensure that the administration won�t be blindsided by what has been portrayed as a potential �bio-Katrina,� according to one administration consultant who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the subject. Three Capitol Hill officials familiar with the contents of the top-secret briefings, which were open to congressional leaders of both parties as well as senior staffers with appropriate security clearances, said there was little if any information imparted during the sessions that had not already appeared in the press. Two officials indicated that the secrets in the briefing related to intelligence raising questions about the thoroughness with which foreign governments were monitoring and disclosing information about the spread of bird flu in their countries. The briefings were staged principally by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), but a senior representative of the intelligence community was also present, according to administration officials. A spokeswoman for HHS declined to explain why the department considered the briefings classified. She would only say that the substance of the briefings related to �general issues of avian flu and pandemic preparedness plans.� < = src="http://m.2mdn.net/879366/globalTemplate_13_08.js"> < = src="http://amch.questionmarket.com/adscgen/st.php?survey_num=210208&site=12237499&code=13646438&randnum=942849"> An intelligence official told NEWSWEEK: �The briefings did contain classified information. The reason the information is classified is because some of it was acquired through clandestine means. The DNI [the office of Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte] works hand in hand with HHS on a range of issues.� A leading public-health expert questioned the wisdom of discussing epidemiological policy in secret. Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University�s school of public health, said, �This is old-fashioned cold war secrecy being applied to a public-health issue--a very bad idea.� Redlener has criticized President Bush and other administration officials for hinting recently that in the event of a pandemic bird flu outbreak, the federal government might rely heavily on the military to establish quarantine zones and restrict public movement to limit the possible spread of disease. Redlener and other experts say that the United States is seriously unprepared to cope with an avian flu outbreak, although there is no clear indication if or when such a pandemic might strike the United States. According to the intelligence-community paper, the World Health Organization has reported that since 1997, 132 people have been reported to have contracted the H5N1 strain, and �so far about half of the people infected� have died. According to the intelligence booklet, complications caused by the H5N1 virus resemble those of the deadly flu outbreak of 1918, and this particular virus strain is of �particular concern� because it has passed from birds to humans, and, in rare cases, may have also been transmitted from person to person. According to the document, human cases of H5N1 have been confirmed in Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, and the virus has been detected in birds in Japan, Kazakhstan, Laos, Malaysia, Russia and South Korea. News reports last week also indicated new bird flu cases were under investigation in Turkey and Romania. Also last week, scientists revealed that the killer 1918 flu appeared to come from an avian virus that mutated slightly to allow for human-to-human transmission. Despite H5N1�s reported mortality rate of 50 percent or more, Dr. Redlener says that by the time such a virus did arrive in the United States, its strength might be significantly degraded. But he notes that in the case of the 1918 Spanish flu, the eventual mortality rate of the virus turned out to be around 2 percent, yet millions still died. Experts note, however, that there is no certainty that North America will be swept by H5N1 in the next few months, or at any point in the foreseeable future. What is vexing the Bush administration and other public-health professionals is the fact that the United States is not particularly well prepared in the event a bird flu pandemic does strike in the near future. Presently, only one or two drugs are regarded as effective treatments for this type of influenza, and it is not certain that even the known drugs would be effective against a particularly virulent strain. Even if the drugs do prove effective, the United States is behind other countries in ordering the drug which experts say has the most potential to be effective against bird flu--a Roche Laboratories product called Tamiflu. Meanwhile, President Bush met last Friday with executives from vaccine manufacturing companies to urge them to expand U.S. capacity to make vaccines to protect against a possible flu pandemic. Manufacturers have complained that making flu vaccines carries burdensome financial and legal risks, and note that new vaccines have to be made fresh every winter to keep up with anticipated mutations in the virus. HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt is currently on a trip to several countries in Asia to get a firsthand look at measures some countries are taking to contain the spread of known bird flu cases. The best defense against a deadly flu pandemic would be stopping it where it starts.

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 09 2006 at 8:59am
	More to add to the plate...hummmm

Guests Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Guest Group	Post Options Post Reply Quote Guests Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 09 2006 at 9:12am
	It would be nice if Newsweek would publish that book, but it would most likely get knocked out of curculation before it had time to circulate throughout the press. I wish our government would force media to put this out there more - but it still sounds like a guessing game at this point, even with the couple of lines posted here from the book 'could be, may be, might' and until it happens I just don't think people will listen. (sigh of acceptance)

gricha56 Members Profile Send Private Message Find Members Posts Add to Buddy List Valued Member Joined: March 07 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 47	Post Options Post Reply Quote gricha56 Report Post Thanks(0) Quote Reply Posted: March 09 2006 at 9:23am
	I don't wish to be a wet blanket, but i often hear that the case fatality rate will go down as the virus changes to allow for human to human transmission of illness. I think this is entirely likely if the virus is to suceed as a pathogen. But that isn't necessarily good news. What that most likely means is that there will be far more cases of illness and as a matter of course, far more deaths. 18 per cent of 500 million is a far larger number than 60 per cent of 200