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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Now tracking the new emerging South Africa Omicron Variant

Total Vaccine Stupidity !!!

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Total Vaccine Stupidity !!!
    Posted: November 27 2021 at 9:58pm

DJ-Many countries did allow fully vaccinated people to fly around the globe. Thanks to that utter stupidity most of the Omicron cases by now will be OUTSIDE the SA region ! (SA=South(ern) Africa)

The major difference may be in that outside SA-region it was spread by vaccinated people....

The 2 KLM flights arriving in Amsterdam had about 10% positive cases in fully vaccinated (since they were vaccinated they did not need to test). If that first and only test did not find anything they could continu their travel...

Omicron musy have been spreading in the SA region for weeks...international airtravel with in general fully vaccinated passengers/crew did get ALL oppertunity to spread that new variant around the globe...

Increase of cases in other countries going exponential (Germany going from around 10,000 cases per day to 70,000 NL from less the 4,000 to over 20,000 per day) may indicate Omicron is allready here...spread by vaccinated !

(part two would be about how angry I am...%#$@ &$  $%&@#$$& !!! To keep it polite...Is there some point in blocking airtraffic from the SA-region ? Maybe-but only if we-finally-stop/limit international airtravel during a pandemic...After Wuhan early 2020, Delta april 2021 (indirect flights via Middle East did not stop for weeks !) we now see Omicron "flying around the globe in vaccinated hosts" ...

Vaccines do NOT stop getting infected that much...certainly new variants may be better in evading (vaccine) immunity....

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2021 at 10:06pm

I agree, DJ.  The more that humanity plays games with this virus, the deadlier it may become.  

We can only control our own actions.  I recommend extreme caution.  If you enter a venue and nobody is wearing a mask, then either be the only one to wear a mask, or leave.  Pride has no place in a pandemic. 

These events only happen once in 100 years, historically.  However, with modern air travel and the evil of falsehoods spread by the Internet, I have no problem in believing in another pandemic from a different agent not long in the future.  

Be careful, medical science can only do so much.  

CRS, DrPH
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2021 at 10:28pm

CRS, DrPH, When I look at Vietnam cases still +26%, Laos +13%, also Latin America Brazil +11%, Peru +6%, I expect some other variants (maybe inside Delta ????) are increasing...South Africa cases +231%, deaths +128%...Cases going up in part because of more testing...for that matter deaths going up a "better" indicator for how bad Omicron (dominant in South Africa...so imported cases around the globe very likely to see some form of Omicron !!!) is. 

Vaccines do NOT stop this pandemic-you needed restrictions for that but "saving the economy" still is translated in "no restrictions"...

CRS, DrPH, for that matter "we can only control our own actions" is the only tool left...I do not expect many countries CAN follow Israel in closing borders...But Omicron must be widespread in Israel as well (cases -47%...?)

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 28 2021 at 12:39am

https://www.voiceforscienceandsolida...rican-variants

November 27, 2021
My opinion on the new African variants
Geert Vanden Bossche

The world may be taken by surprise but that doesn't include us. It remains to be seen whether Omicron can outcompete Delta (to be confirmed). If that’s the case, we're definitely not in good shape.
In case of CoV, innate immunity protects the individual and the 'herd' ( sterilizing immunity, no natural selection pressure, herd immunity) whereas adaptive immunity induced with leaky vaccines has exactly the opposite effect.
THE big Q is whether such an immune escape variant could even resist naturally acquired Abs in people who recovered from C19 disease. I am, indeed, cautious and worried about ADE, even in the unvaccinated who recovered from C-19 disease as they may no longer be able to control viral infection. ADE would equal ‘enhanced virulence’. Difficult to predict.
Mass vaccination has compressed the evolutionary trajectory of the virus from a few hundred years (?) down to one year. Hope that naturally primed individuals can deal with that speed.

DJ [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement[/url] or https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody-dependent_enhancement 

IF (given South Africa "only" has 24% vaccination level it is a very big "IF") Omicron (almost) only would be detected in vaccinated or recovered hosts it "could be an indication" antibodies could be playing a part in spreading the virus....

DJ-I think this may not be a very likely scenario...My (non expert0 idea/hope is vaccines, natural immunity may still have some protection left...

No doubt ADE is top of the list for experts following Omicron....

What we know about Omicron variant that has sparked global alarm

Clive Cookson and Oliver Barnes in London
YESTERDAY

... Slawomir Kubik, a genomics research expert at Geneva-based biotech Sophia Genetics, said many of Omicron’s mutations came “completely out of the blue” and had not been observed before in other strains. Therefore, scientists “have very little visibility on what these new mutations are doing to how the virus works”, he explained, adding that once it begins to spread more widely its “true fitness” will become clear. Some of the mutations indicate increased transmissibility, while changes in the genetic code make it harder for the immune system, trained by existing vaccinations or prior infection with another variant, to tackle a new strain. But it will take researchers several weeks or months to work out the interactions between them and their cumulative impact.

DJ This variant most likely did develop for over 1 year (since april 2020 ?) did however pick up some Alpha (del 69/70), Beta, Delta mutations and mixed them with a host of "new" mutations...

"vaccines are getting tested" may be the best description...IF vaccines DO provide a relatively good protection against severe disease from Omicron it is more then welcome (and much more then we deserved !). 

There could be (lots of) other "Omicron-like" variants going their "own way" both in human and non-human hosts !

We must STOP THE SPREAD of variants ! Stop free (air) travel (in vaccinated) during a pandemic ! Why is it that hard to cut back airtravel by 90-95% ? 

If we do NOT stop the spread it is only a matter of time before we end up in "our final crisis" !!!

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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