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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

U.S 200,000 dead by September

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carbon20 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: U.S 200,000 dead by September
    Posted: June 10 2020 at 10:08pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 10 2020 at 10:37pm

The 200,000 deaths sounds like a best case scenario.  

Quote “Even if we don’t have increasing cases, even if we keep things flat, it’s reasonable to expect that we’re going to hit 200,000 deaths sometime during the month of September,” Jha said. “And that’s just through September. The pandemic won’t be over in September.”

Given current death stand at over 112,000 this sadly seems a realistic estimate.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 11 2020 at 1:57am






After all the protests I'm guessing 500,000.......by Christmas

Hope I'm wrong.....


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 11 2020 at 4:59am

I don't disagree with anything that's being said here.  One thing though... few States here in the U.S. have "caught fire".  With more to come, I have to wonder if Harvard and we are low-balling.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2020 at 1:03am

Time for a bump....to see where things are a month later.   The death rate has been quite low and it was slowy sinking, so I was wondering if that sad mile-stone would be reached, or if it would only be at the end of September.   Currently the CDC reported figure is 134,572 deaths (as of 12th July).   65,000 cases to go at 800 deaths a day would be 81 days so around the beginning of October.

However, with the recent surge in cases, there is signs that the number of daily deaths from corvid-19 is beginning to rise again, so maybe the mile-stone will be reached early in the month or even in August.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 13 2020 at 4:36am

Keep in mind those numbers will accelerate, Edwin.  Just two weeks ago (or was it last week, I'm losing track) the projection was 200,000 dead by November.  This new projection skips October.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Emswally Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2020 at 10:28am

I'm in rural Idaho.   It's starting to take off here.  Business next to the one my wife works in had all workers sick yesterday with 

symptoms.  Of course they aren't going to get tested.  It's laughable really.   

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tabitha111 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2020 at 12:50pm

Just saw a facebook post that is making the rounds...the girl in it is anti-mask...so instead of wearing a mask in Washington State where it is mandated, she drives across the line to Idaho - where it is not, to do her shopping.

(Funny how afraid these people are of a little piece of cloth.)

'A man who does not think and plan long ahead will find trouble right at his door.'
--Confucius

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2020 at 4:01pm

Originally posted by Tabitha111 Tabitha111 wrote:

Just saw a facebook post that is making the rounds...the girl in it is anti-mask...so instead of wearing a mask in Washington State where it is mandated, she drives across the line to Idaho - where it is not, to do her shopping.

(Funny how afraid these people are of a little piece of cloth.)

Might smudge the lippy.....darling......

Sorry but its F...ing madness....

Should have to be quarantined crossing borders.....

Emswally:

Are these people just got cold like symptoms?

 or really Sick and have to be in hospital ?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rollingsalmon Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 29 2020 at 6:51pm

I can see that. It's July 29, and the count as of 4 minutes ago is 153,840

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2020 at 8:52am

The forecast from June of 200,000 deaths being reached during September seem to be on track. Given current rates my guess is it will occur around the middle of the month.

I have been pleased to see the death rates have not risen with the case rates so I was wondering if there would be fewer than 300,000 USA deaths from Corvid by the end of the year, when I saw this on the BBC Live News.

Quote And the death toll may rise dramatically in the coming months if projections by the University of Washington are correct. Scientists there estimate the toll will reach 410,000 by 1 January, but more than half of those lives could be saved if face masks are made mandatory    

Maybe I have been too optimistic!

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 04 2020 at 10:50am

Hope springs eternal that you're estimate is right, Edwin.  But I fear that it will be closer to UofW estimate.  But even then I have hope that this estimate is lower than expected because of the Northeast's handling of the virus and there will not be the same high death totals in the northeast that happened in the first four or five months of this year.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 05 2020 at 11:08am

Josh posted this link:  https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-covid-19-global-forecast-ihme-projects-three-quarters-of-a-million-lives-could-be-saved-by-january-1-301124287.html  which gives more details of the estimate. 


The 410,000 deaths by 1st January 2010, is the "Most Likely" (estimated range of   347,551–515,272) .

The best case (for the USA) is 288,381 (range of 257,286–327,775) 

The worst case is 620,029 (range of 463,361–874,649) 


As will all looking into the future things get very murky with a wide range of possibilities.  But the forecasts in the link are all much worse than I was thinking things would be given how the summer has gone.  I suspect that we have not yet seen the worst effects of opening up society.  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 05 2020 at 3:15pm

Is anyone really surprised at 200 000 + dead? 

the USA's administrations approach to this pandemic has been abysmal.......

RE JacksDad's signature......

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.



Missing you JD hope you and yours are OK....

Stay safe all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰


Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 07 2020 at 8:38pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

Is anyone really surprised at 200 000 + dead? 

the USA's administrations approach to this pandemic has been abysmal.......

RE JacksDad's signature......

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.



Missing you JD hope you and yours are OK....

Stay safe all πŸ˜·πŸ˜‰


Nice, thanks! 

At the very beginning of this thing (mid Feb 2020), I calculated 2 million US deaths using the paucity of data available from China for incubation period, case fatality rate etc.   A bit later on, I estimated 1 million eventual deaths in the US since we now have a bit of herd immunity ongoing and reinfection doesn't appear likely. 

I'll stick with 1 million total US deaths.  500,000 dead by the end of 2020 in the USA seems very possible to me, especially since the US population appears very fatigued with the discipline it takes to self-isolate and wear masks.  Beachs were very crowded in the US this Labor Day holiday, so we'll have another spike in a few weeks.  

Universities are having a hellish time controlling COVID-19 among students.  We have a long way to go, friends. 

Be safe, all. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2020 at 1:45am

Back on 10th June Carbon20 posted a link to a Reuters article stating

Quote it’s reasonable to expect that we’re going to hit 200,000 deaths sometime during the month of September,


According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries this sad milestone was reached on 15th September 2020, when the different authorities in the USA has reported a total of 200,199 deaths.


Kudos to Ashish Jha, the head of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, for such an accurate forecast.


 

ps. the next forecast to check up on in the CDC forecast for October 3rd 2020.  See this thread https://www.avianflutalk.com/cdc-projects-covid-deaths-by-october-3rd_topic43289.html?KW=October+CDC

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2020 at 1:52am






I wonder if the 400,000+ I heard banded about, 

Is an accurate prediction,

I think it's is with cases going up  all over.......

Sad but true......

Could have been so much better.......

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2020 at 2:02am

That 410 000 deaths, in the USA, by the 1st January 2021 was a "most likely" case, but it would mean an average of 2,000 deaths a day between now and then, so on current rates it looks most unlikely. However, I will be watching to see if the death rates of the top countries start to "explode" in October or November as the 2nd or 3rd waves begin to bite.

The same model posted a "Best Case" of 288,381 (range 257,286-327,775), and the USA is on track for that if recent data holds at the same level for the next two months.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2020 at 2:10am





Coming into winter with all the rallies I see on TV....

 400000.......seems possible.....so easy to write 400000.....

Think of all the families that will lose a loved one......

Let alone the on going health care and concerns......the infection brings.....

Terrible absolutely terrible.....and very sad.....

Take care all 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: September 16 2020 at 9:48am

Yes there are rallies and riots that have tons of people and no one wearing masks at the rallies and about half at the riots.  Plus all the college kids are  having huge parties.  Memorial day parties.  Its going to explode this winter.  Sad.

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