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PANDEMIC ALERT LEVEL
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Tracking the next pandemic: Avian Flu Talk

U.S. Stocks in Free Fall -800

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Albert View Drop Down
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    Posted: February 24 2020 at 3:31am

DOW Futures currently -800. Very bad stuff.


Global stocks hammered as coronavirus cases surge in South Korea and Italy


https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/23/business/stock-futures-coronavirus/index.html
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 3:41am
Very bad news indeed. Could trigger ah economic depression. This will cause a lot of problems for the world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 3:51am
-800 is not a deal breaker.

   Although, a steady decline this week was expected, and this weekend some of the reality is setting in, also considering the economic risks that are not baked in to the market yet.

If we see 1500 drop today, then watch for what happens in the next 2 days after.

   I'm expecting a one-two punch, the stock market roller coaster, then the news of supply chain disruptions for industry.....

   Just my opinion, no scholarly knowledge behind it other than logic, and common sense.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 3:53am
O dear!  This was one of the few economic indicators in the US that was still holding up.  Trump was using it to show how good he was for the country, so if it continues to fall over the next few days, he will get mad again.Angry

BUT remember stock prices are way up on a year ago, so if you look at stock movement them look at the longer term picture, as it is easier to panic if one just considers the short term. 

Time to dust off my copy of Hitchhikers Guide to Galaxy with its friendly cover of "Do Not Panic".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 4:42am
A lot of companies do business in China. AAPL & MU are going to take a big hit. Chip stocks could be in trouble. U.S. auto manufacturers such as Toyota are also in trouble as they are having problems getting parts out of China.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BeachMama Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 8:19am
Aw, “Hitchhiker’s Guide!” Gotta love that book.

The stock market has been due for a correction for a good, long while now. I’ve been wondering since COVID’s numbers shot way up in China if it could be the black swan that would take a few thousand points off of it. Definitely not good for those with heavy investments — but they do say that it always eventually restores itself.

It will be interesting to see what Trump’s reaction is.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 10:48am
At one point it was down almost 1100, now 94!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 24 2020 at 11:01am
Don't panic, Edwin! We are still at the: "Mostly harmless" stage.

I've got my towel ready.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:07am
Stock market tanking once again today. DOW - 280
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:17am
Make that -350
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:32am
This is scary stuff.  Albert, I keep hearing something is going to be announced Thursday...does anyone have any insight on this?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:34am
Hi Roni, I've heard the same.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:47am
Closing the stock market might be a good way to avoid catastrophic falls. They are coming as the great economic powerhouse that is China closes down and supplies dry up.

You can have a Great American manufacturer of, lets say washing machines, but if you can't get one specific chip for the control panel - that comes from Shanghai - you are screwed. That applies across the board. It even affects the little farmer who can't get the crop in as he needs a new power-take-off plug or linkage cos his has blown. (No PTO = no tractor - its just a big expensive car.)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 9:16am
Tech, there are fail safes built into the market. Laws and rules passed after the stock market crash of 2008 have auto stops built into the markets. It looks bad now but in the long run the market will stabilize.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 9:22am
They always do. But many will lose their shirts before it comes back up again. Closing markets is just a BIG failsafe.

I do not expect the USA to be the only country to try it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 9:50am
DOW -479. Are we headed for another -1000 day?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:19am
The problem is the current administration’s view of regulations, and the way they’ve removed many of the safeguards put it in place after 2008 in order to boost the stock market.

"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
"Any community that fails to prepare, with the expectation that the federal government will come to the rescue, will be tragically wrong." Michael Leavitt, HHS Secretary.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:28am
what safe guards did they remove?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote hoosiermom22 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:28am
Originally posted by Albert Albert wrote:

DOW -479. Are we headed for another -1000 day?

Oh retirement 😭😭
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:39am
ooof 600 now
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:43am
Originally posted by pheasant pheasant wrote:

ooof 600 now
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ME163 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 10:45am
it is possible that they know more than we do. Remember the briefing that homeland security held for the senate ? it could be a heads up to what is going on in Italy. Remember, Italy is a NATO member and under the treaty, has the right to shared info. We now have an out break that can't be hidden. it is going to be a bumpy ride.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 11:10am
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

The problem is the current administration’s view of regulations, and the way they’ve removed many of the safeguards put it in place after 2008 in order to boost the stock market.


Well said, JD.  

Also their bloody arrogance about public health in general.  I emphasize that the COVID-19 is generally a mild infection for many folks, but Trump sure spins it as "don't worry about it." 

I'm a "prepare for it," vs. a "don't worry about it" kind of guy.  I still think it will generally peter out and burn its way into society as a long-term problem, much like MRSA, West Nile Virus and other public health problems.  

We'll see.  Be safe, man.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 11:12am
-800 now. Ouch
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 11:14am
Starting to look like the beginning of a full blown crash underway.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 11:24am
The emphasis on deregulation began almost immediately that Trump took office, and one of the first targets was the Dodd-Frank act that was partially repealed in 2017, I believe. There has been a push from this administration to allow Wall Street to police itself without outside regulation. We did the same thing leading up to the 2008 crash, and we all know how that panned out.
"Buy it cheap. Stack it deep"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 11:32am
-900
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 11:42am
Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

The emphasis on deregulation began almost immediately that Trump took office, and one of the first targets was the Dodd-Frank act that was partially repealed in 2017, I believe. There has been a push from this administration to allow Wall Street to police itself without outside regulation. We did the same thing leading up to the 2008 crash, and we all know how that panned out.


   kk ty
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pixie Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 11:48am
Excerpt to a long but informative article....



https://prospect.org/economy/trump-s-assault-financial-reform/


Frank was not self-executing. Multiple regulatory agencies had to adopt hundreds of rules to turn the law into a reality. Each agency had to consider, propose, finalize, implement, interpret, and ultimately enforce each of those hundreds of rules.

By the time the Obama administration left office, over 300 rules had been finalized, according to one count. Even so, at least 115 Dodd-Frank rules remained to be completed when the Obama administration ended, including executive compensation rules, securities-based swap rules, credit rating agency reform, and commodity speculation rules.

Since taking office, the Trump administration has set about dismantling the core pillars of financial reform by:

· lowering capital requirements;

· weakening stress testing and living wills;

· allowing more proprietary trading;

· enabling more unregulated derivatives dealing;

· rolling back consumer and investor protections;

· reducing prudential regulation of systemically significant banks;

· neutering the regulation of systemically significant nonbanks and the shadow banking system;

· defunding research and monitoring of the financial industry; and 

· stopping enforcing the laws, if not actually siding with the predators.

While all are important, the deregulation of systemically significant nonbanks is worth singling out, because it illustrates the Trump administration's sheer recklessness. This will recreate the two-tier regulatory system that incentivizes and rewards regulatory arbitrage and a bailout culture. The implications for financial stability are immense.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 12:11pm
Remember this man went bankrupt more than once. If that reckless with his own finances, why not the country's? I believe he does love America, but also himself. He is just a natural born risk taker.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 6:21pm
Stock futures are up by +39 and green. That is extremely shaky ground, and major caution advised for tomorrow for a similar day as the last two days. Investing and playing bounces is not advised in a pandemic, in my opinion. If you're a great swing trader and a pro, it's good, but I'm not that good. Good luck to all tomorrow. Another major decline may be imminent tomorrow.      
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 6:39pm
Its a $hitshow that's for sure.
This will go much much deeper when the general public start to understand the effects.

I have people around me. Very smart people in finance. They are only just starting to discuss the financial impact. Their discussions are mild to some extent uneducated. It will be all right. I heard our CFO call it SARS all over again (with a scoff)

I think they have underestimated the of stupidity of the general public. Workers not turning up to work. We have already had a customer delay a project. Deliveries out of China haven't arrived. It hasn't even started yet...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Flubergasted Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 7:11pm
Yikes! My investments have lost so much in the last two days.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nzdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 7:36pm
here in new zealand,the folks at the top are putting the pieces of the puzzle together [slowly, albeit]
and now feel its time to tell us that the economy both locally and globally will likely collapse.

way to go MSM,way to go.....slow clap.......lol.


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/world/119809673/with-coronavirus-uncontained-the-global-economy-is-heading-for-a-sudden-halt

hold on to yer hats friends,rough water ahead.
prepare for the worst,hope for the best.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 25 2020 at 8:27pm
Yep, they've been very slow to talk about it here in NZ. I just saw a report saying they may change the criteria for those they test (ie. expand to include people visiting from other countries than China). I sold my stocks 2 days ago. I converted most of them to cash but have kept a few as a speculation.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote cobber Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 12:28am
Yeah here in OZ the media/government keep down playing the virus. Its makes the government look untrustworthy. 

It's creating a situation where alarmist talk on the web is becoming the narrative. The government needs to be on the front foot. They need to show strength, be honest, talk about practical measures.

I sold my stocks on the 30thJan. Paid down every loan. Sold everything. Pulled all my cash out the bank. Purchased 100kgs of silver as a hedge.

Now I'm getting ready to pour my money back into the stock market. Webjet and Qantas on the hit list. Hoping to avoid bouncing dead cats.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 1:32am
wow. Futures / DOW already -411 this morning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote pheasant Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 2:40am
Had meetings with 3 reps on the shipping and production issues from china yesterday re: textiles.

   Quick synopsis on stateside players, one company has 2/3 of production from china closed, and NO shipments yet, another all vendors closed, NO shipments, and 3rd company not getting confirmation as to when production will start again.

   All of the reps (some use purchasing agents in china) don't have a clear idea when containers will start coming again.

2 vendors say they are stocked deep and don't foresee interruptions for some time still, 1 vendor is just this week seeing a few 3-5% of items out of stock.

   the longer this continues, the more critical the situation becomes, considering 5-6 week lag time from order to delivery under normal conditions...and that does not count production times on average.

   Our business is a service business, so supply lines AND public sentiment are critical for us....We are getting concerned, people don't buy home furnishings/ improvements during a pandemic it seems.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Albert Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 10:42am
Stock market on decline and Red. A close for the DOW today under 27,000 could result to a major sell-off tomorrow and the worst day to date.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KiwiMum Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 12:05pm
Originally posted by cobber cobber wrote:

Yeah here in OZ the media/government keep down playing the virus. Its makes the government look untrustworthy. 

It's creating a situation where alarmist talk on the web is becoming the narrative. The government needs to be on the front foot. They need to show strength, be honest, talk about practical measures.

I sold my stocks on the 30thJan. Paid down every loan. Sold everything. Pulled all my cash out the bank. Purchased 100kgs of silver as a hedge.

Now I'm getting ready to pour my money back into the stock market. Webjet and Qantas on the hit list. Hoping to avoid bouncing dead cats.


I sold all our NZ shares but kept some Aussie medical research ones to speculate on. I've also kept shares in 2 gold mines I had, as gold is going up, they've got to keep digging for it. I will reinvest the money I've taken out but not just yet. I'll probably buy back what I've just sold as they were doing really well and I've been very happy with them. Hopefully I'll get them at rock bottom and make some good money on them.
Those who got it wrong, for whatever reason, may feel defensive and retrench into a position that doesn’t accord with the facts.
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12:45 p.m. ET: Two charts explain the market’s virus panic" data-reactid="50" style="font-size: 1.4em; margin: 0.5em 0px 1em; -webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility; line-height: 1.4em; caret-color: rgb(38, 40, 42); font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;">12:45 p.m. ET: Two charts explain the market’s virus panic

The market’s recently whipsaw trading over the coronavirus has belied the fact that rates of new infections within China — the epicenter of the pathogen’s outbreak — are actually on the decline. So why are investors so freaked out?

The answer is that new infections outside of the Middle Kingdom are trending upward in a dramatic fashion. Via Capital Economics, here’s one graph that’s enough to make some traders lose sleep tonight:

New coronavirus cases spike externally.
View photos
New coronavirus cases spike externally.
< ="C$c-fuji-blue-1-b Curp W100% T63px Bgc#fff Tastart Fz13px P0 Bd0 O0 Lh1.5 Posa" -reactid="71" style=": rgb255, 255, 255; overflow: ; margin: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 13px; font-family: inherit; line-height: 1.5; border: 0px; color: rgb0, 129, 242; outline: 0px; top: 63px; padding: 0px; : ; text-align: left; width: 600px;">More

The biggest worries right now are South Korea and Italy (which reported on Wednesday that new cases had doubled), but other regions are also trending higher:

New coronavirus cases spike externally.
View photos
New coronavirus cases spike externally.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 1:09pm

12:45 p.m. ET: Two charts explain the market’s virus panic

The market’s recently whipsaw trading over the coronavirus has belied the fact that rates of new infections within China — the epicenter of the pathogen’s outbreak — are actually on the decline. So why are investors so freaked out?

The answer is that new infections outside of the Middle Kingdom are trending upward in a dramatic fashion. Via Capital Economics, here’s one graph that’s enough to make some traders lose sleep tonight:

New coronavirus cases spike externally.

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New coronavirus cases spike externally.

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The biggest worries right now are South Korea and Italy (which reported on Wednesday that new cases had doubled), but other regions are also trending higher:

New coronavirus cases spike externally.

View photos

New coronavirus cases spike externally.

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Joined: January 20 2014
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: February 26 2020 at 1:17pm
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