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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Ultimate mortality number?

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CRS, DrPH View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 13 2020 at 11:45pm

First of all, thanks to all my fellow AFT/PT members for being on the early side of this pandemic, starting with the earliest reports of an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China!    On Jan 8, 2020, I posted onto AFT: 

Starting to look like a corona-virus, just like SARS and MERS. I thought that was the most likely candidate.


I then took pen to paper and calculated US casualties of 2 million as follows:


US population is presently about 331 million souls. if about 1/3 of us are at highest risk

for serious illness, the denominator is 100 million. CFR may be 2%, so 2 million might

die from this one in the US.


This number was since confirmed by the Brits, almost to the decimal point.  Of course, this assumed no herd immunity, no isolation etc. 


.....Now, the US Government is vacillating in their numbers, which have ranged from very low (20,000) to up to 100,000.  Early on AFT, I said that total casualties would be 250,000. 


Today, I am writing to announce that, upon analysis, we are more likely to see casualties in the range of 1 million or more.  Our self-quarantine and social distancing bought us some time to prevent drastic overload of hospital ICU beds, but now that the doors are being flung wide open in states such as Wisconsin, Georgia and others, I predict a massive wave of infections that will dwarf the first one.  We basically just kicked the can down the road a bit. 


Thoughts?  Be safe, Chuck

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote EdwinSm, Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 12:55am

I sure hope you are wrong.    But looking at the maths of this, it does seem possible.  


1 million deaths at an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.67% would mean about 150 million cases in the USA.  That would be slightly less than 50% of the population being infected.  [This seems low by some of the initial estimates of 60-80% being infected.]


Does your model use a higher infection rate and a lower IFR?   And what adjustments do you make for IFR in various age bands?


To get to the figures you suggest, it basically means social distancing etc goes out the window and you let this burn through the community.


What time frame are you suggesting?  My guess is that you are using a longer time frame and that the numbers will not be that high by the November election.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Little House Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 3:07am

Here at ATF, the mantra has been to watch what they do, not what they say.  Here in Ohio, our state government is still buying ventilators, PPE, and other necessary supplies.  Everyone here, except the government is acting like this is almost over.  My thoughts are that they bought enough time to get the hospitals ready and now they are going to let it burn.  Hopefully it will be a well contained burn, but I doubt it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 3:36am

When facilities are overloaded the CFR for this virus rises to 10%.  It is way, way lower with enough top notch hospital care, but overloaded hospitals can't give that and America has a reputation for being truly crap at it (Your medical care for the population in general is a national shame and makes you a laughing-stock for the rest of the world.  Sorry folks!  That is the truth!  Your friend is the one that tells you you need the shower.)

So Chuck's figures sound about right.  

I don't expect the government to admit to that though.  The truth would kill the vote count.......   'And that is the real prize.   

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ksc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 3:47am

^ delusional....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 4:23am

Yes you quite correct ksc

Your government is delusional......

Get your body bags ready.....

Buy shares in funeral homes.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 9:36am

Originally posted by EdwinSm, EdwinSm, wrote:

I sure hope you are wrong.    But looking at the maths of this, it does seem possible.  


1 million deaths at an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.67% would mean about 150 million cases in the USA.  That would be slightly less than 50% of the population being infected.  [This seems low by some of the initial estimates of 60-80% being infected.]


Does your model use a higher infection rate and a lower IFR?   And what adjustments do you make for IFR in various age bands?


To get to the figures you suggest, it basically means social distancing etc goes out the window and you let this burn through the community.


What time frame are you suggesting?  My guess is that you are using a longer time frame and that the numbers will not be that high by the November election.

Thanks for the feedback, all!  

My original thinking is that 100% of 300 M US citizens are vulnerable to this virus, as it is an emerging, novel virus recently spilled over from some animal host.   We are all at biological risk of infection. 

Second, most recent data shows that transmission is most pronounced when cases are pre-symptomatic, NOT when they are symptomatic.  Checking for fever temperatures etc. doesn't help when seemingly healthy people are circulating in society, spewing virus far and wide. 

Third, the actual death count to date is most likely far too low, according to experts.   US deaths right now are 85,269 but I think that is an underestimate by at least half, so the actual death total could be about 175,000.  In the early stages of this pandemic, many died at home or in nursing homes and were quickly disposed of without testing or autopsy.  Review of death records for "pneumonia" will show a drastic rise in cases.  This is how we discovered the cause of Legionnaire's Disease, which turns out to have been a rather common cause of human pneumonia....it took one major outbreak to spark the investigation into the cause.  

Fourth, we are still critically low on PPE.  Dr. Bright just testified to Congress that much of the imported N-95 masks are substandard, putting healthcare workers at unnecessary risk.   This will lead to more healthcare-related infections and thus more community spread . 

Fifth, we are going right back to the beginning of community spread, with the opening of restaurants, bars etc.  Evidence from South Korea and other locations is that these events are directly related to explosive spread of the virus throughout the population. 

Finally, this mess is so politicized in the US that, by the time the majority of voters of both parties realize we have a fulminant infectious disease problem in the US, it will be far too late to put the "genie" back into the bottle.  Many of us are likely to become infected, and a few of us may die from this.  I'm putting my own affairs into order just in case (my wife doesn't like to think like this).  

To summarize - we only bought some time with our shutdown, which was NOT national in scope.  Some states such as South Dakota did not institute shutdowns, and they are now experiencing surge outbreaks.  Many infectious patients are wandering around on crowded beaches, restaurants etc. in total disregard to the infectious disease implications.  

1 million deaths in the USA seems quite possible to me, I hope it isn't even more....there are always ancillary mortalities from suicide, untreated heart conditions etc. since COVID-19 competes for medical capacity.  In terms of time frame, I would predict 1 M deaths in no more than one year, and probably (as I previously posted to AFT) about 250,000 deaths by the fall election in November 2020.   A functional vaccine may or may not be found, and so we are all at the mercy of the natural history aspects of this virus.   No matter how many restaurants are opening, we are staying home.  

Be safe.  

CRS, DrPH
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 12:57pm

I hope you're wrong, Chuck. But in my heart of hearts I know you're close to the mark.  As I watch the actions of other states and the need for people to get back to work to pay bills, I fail to see how it won't be really ugly later this year.   Particularly with our own experts saying we're in for a very dark winter if we don't proceed carefully.  But, I know we won't proceed carefully.  Thankfully my brother in RI and his family and my sister and her family in SC are on board with staying home even as States lift restrictions.  I don't expect restrictions to be lifted in NYC until late July/August, if we're lucky.  And I'm okay with that.  I know if (when) new infections start rising again with a second wave, we'll shut down again.  I'm okay with that too.   I thank my lucky stars every day I live in a state and region that is on board with Fauci's recommendations and enacted them instead of just talking about it.

Like you, I'm staying home.  Even though NYC's infection rate is now what it was last March, I'm still staying home.  Even if this administration starts playing the numbers game, I'm staying home.  By the way, I'm getting really good at cooking my own Chinese food!  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 1:56pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

I hope you're wrong, Chuck. But in my heart of hearts I know you're close to the mark.  As I watch the actions of other states and the need for people to get back to work to pay bills, I fail to see how it won't be really ugly later this year.   Particularly with our own experts saying we're in for a very dark winter if we don't proceed carefully.  But, I know we won't proceed carefully.  Thankfully my brother in RI and his family and my sister and her family in SC are on board with staying home even as States lift restrictions.  I don't expect restrictions to be lifted in NYC until late July/August, if we're lucky.  And I'm okay with that.  I know if (when) new infections start rising again with a second wave, we'll shut down again.  I'm okay with that too.   I thank my lucky stars every day I live in a state and region that is on board with Fauci's recommendations and enacted them instead of just talking about it.

Like you, I'm staying home.  Even though NYC's infection rate is now what it was last March, I'm still staying home.  Even if this administration starts playing the numbers game, I'm staying home.  By the way, I'm getting really good at cooking my own Chinese food!  

Bless your heart, WM!  I just made Mongolian beef fo the first time, it was really good!  

Here, this guy says quite a bit that backs up my supposition:

https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/04/itll-all-be-over-by-christmas.html

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 2:38pm

Thanks for the link, Chuck.  My eyes are tired, but I'll read that more fully in the morning.  I did skim over it and my first reaction is what nitwit told him the economy would recover in six months??

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote roni3470 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 3:48pm

Lets throw something else in the loop please.....I am quite certain that my family of 4 has had it.  I worked at in January with a lot of chinese folks coming back from celebrations and/or holidays. I got really sick.  The cough was the worst cough I have ever had.  Went and got tested for flu but negative.  This was before they were COVID testing.  I got cough medicine with codeine.  Then a week later, my youngest son complained of a headache everyday and as soon as he got home from school he fell asleep for awhile before dinner.  Never had a headache before that week and never since.  My older son got really sick with URI and missed a week of school. Also got a negative flu test.  Then finally my husband. 

So why am I telling you all of this?  we were all sick with one or two of the major symptoms but never got tested.  I think there is a large majority of the population like this and I would like to assume we are immune for the second wave at least. So how can you calculate the number of people that likely have had this into the equation?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 4:41pm

Don't count on immunity, Roni.  Even assuming it was covid19 (and there is no proof of that) there is evidence to suggest the immunity is very temporary.  The immunity to the common cold coronavirus only lasts about a year.

Even a really good vaccine would need regular boosters, probably annualy.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 14 2020 at 5:11pm

I am staying home from now until I feel it is safe...it is not safe.  However that being said people need to go back to work that need to pay bills.  Sorry but not everyone can work from home.  Yes people will get sick and some will die but 80 % again 80% of people will get over this virus.  We can't stop the world for people who should be home during this pandemic.  

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Doc,  given the  confusion and incompetence of the federal government, I think you may be right. 


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It is not just the federal government it is also the states that decide what they are goin to open.  Again 80% of people get this and are FINE...the other 20% if they can need to stay home.  Some HAVE to work to feed kids and keep a roof over their heads...what you all think this life is free because some of us do not need to work or can work from home.  

Does it make a difference to open now or a month from now or   3 months from now or 6 months from now.  When ever we open this virus is going to get going again and kill some of us.  Do we want to kill our economy so we do another 1920s depression.  NOT me let people make their own decisions unless you want the U.S. To become a communist country where the powers that Be  run YOUR life.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 15 2020 at 12:47am

Originally posted by roni3470 roni3470 wrote:

Lets throw something else in the loop please.....I am quite certain that my family of 4 has had it.  I worked at in January with a lot of chinese folks coming back from celebrations and/or holidays. I got really sick.  The cough was the worst cough I have ever had.  Went and got tested for flu but negative.  This was before they were COVID testing.  I got cough medicine with codeine.  Then a week later, my youngest son complained of a headache everyday and as soon as he got home from school he fell asleep for awhile before dinner.  Never had a headache before that week and never since.  My older son got really sick with URI and missed a week of school. Also got a negative flu test.  Then finally my husband. 

So why am I telling you all of this?  we were all sick with one or two of the major symptoms but never got tested.  I think there is a large majority of the population like this and I would like to assume we are immune for the second wave at least. So how can you calculate the number of people that likely have had this into the equation?

I'm sure there are many cases like yours (you do sound as if you had exposure and infection), and you should go have a test for circulating antibodies. 

However, the great majority of US citizens have likely not had any exposure to SARS-CoV2 yet.  The reason I say this is because it is so damn transmissible, and we have had large sections of the US lulled into a false sense of security because it has taken a while for the virus to penetrate beyond urban strongholds. 

However, as we see in meat processing plants in South Dakota, Minnesota and other states, this thing spreads like wildfire amongst vulnerable populations, and I think that the reprieve we earned with scattershot isolation (we should have had a national policy, but Trump didn't like that) is over now. 

Incubation period is about 14 days, so in a few weeks, we'll know one way or the other.  I do hope you have immunity to this thing. 

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Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

It is not just the federal government it is also the states that decide what they are goin to open.  Again 80% of people get this and are FINE...the other 20% if they can need to stay home.  Some HAVE to work to feed kids and keep a roof over their heads...what you all think this life is free because some of us do not need to work or can work from home.  

Does it make a difference to open now or a month from now or   3 months from now or 6 months from now.  When ever we open this virus is going to get going again and kill some of us.  Do we want to kill our economy so we do another 1920s depression.  NOT me let people make their own decisions unless you want the U.S. To become a communist country where the powers that Be  run YOUR life.

Economies recover much more quickly than dead bodies, FM.  

I don't care how many tattoo parlors, saloons and casinos open, I don't plan on spending money in any of them.   

The economy won't recover without consumer confidence, and the only way to provide this is with concrete medical progress.  Pres. Trump keeps saying a vaccine will be ready by the end of the year or whatever, but this is a scientific impossibility.  His wild guess about hydroxychloroquine turned out to be a hollow promise.  

Let states like Wisconsin, Georgia and Iowa throw open their doors, I think that we'll see very poor business results and rising infection rates and mortalities.  We do have more ventilators now, but getting deathly ill and being on a ventilator for several weeks doesn't sound like fun.  1 M fatalities.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (5) Thanks(5)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 15 2020 at 2:09am

ECRD! Economies recover, corpses don't.

There is much talk of recession. Optimistic Rubbish!  We are on course for a global depression.  It is unavoidable.  Re-opening before the virus is controlled will make things harder and more drawn-out in the long run.

Whatever the course of action things are going to get tight very soon.  How bad and how long for depends on whether the virus is still rampaging or not.

Dying for a haircut?  Not me either.

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Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/04/itll-all-be-over-by-christmas.html



Yes, I think I gave similar sentiment in another thread when I said that the Fed loans Trillions per day to banks and the banks don't reinvest (instead give their big guns multi-million dollar bonuses and lay off 40,000 workers. A few of that Trillion needs to be tossed to citizens in order for this to work. I'm not a big adherent to extreme progressive economic values but these are extreme times. Time to give trickle-up a try in this relatively brief period and see what happens before any further commitment is legislated in "New Deal" type measures.

"If the howls of rage at the first lockdown are deafening, the second lockdown will be worse: think of toddlers being sent back to bed with no supper. And that's the lucky work-from-home class: the working poor—with no savings and jobs they need to be physically present for—are going to be increasingly angry and fractious at their exposure. Expect civil disobedience and possibly summer riots unless central banks throw money at the grassroots -- and not $1200 for 10 weeks: more like $1200 per week.   

Good read, Chuck.  Thanks.  We're not seeing riots yet, but it is a matter of time.  

I also believe we'll be extremely lucky if we can eke out six or eight weeks of relative summer quiet to collect ourselves and hike up our big girl tights and big boy pants, respectively. 

I still want to know what nitwit told Trump that the economy would recover in six months...   .  I "

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 16 2020 at 1:14am

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

https://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2020/04/itll-all-be-over-by-christmas.html



Yes, I think I gave similar sentiment in another thread when I said that the Fed loans Trillions per day to banks and the banks don't reinvest (instead give their big guns multi-million dollar bonuses and lay off 40,000 workers. A few of that Trillion needs to be tossed to citizens in order for this to work. I'm not a big adherent to extreme progressive economic values but these are extreme times. Time to give trickle-up a try in this relatively brief period and see what happens before any further commitment is legislated in "New Deal" type measures.

"If the howls of rage at the first lockdown are deafening, the second lockdown will be worse: think of toddlers being sent back to bed with no supper. And that's the lucky work-from-home class: the working poor—with no savings and jobs they need to be physically present for—are going to be increasingly angry and fractious at their exposure. Expect civil disobedience and possibly summer riots unless central banks throw money at the grassroots -- and not $1200 for 10 weeks: more like $1200 per week.   

Good read, Chuck.  Thanks.  We're not seeing riots yet, but it is a matter of time.  

I also believe we'll be extremely lucky if we can eke out six or eight weeks of relative summer quiet to collect ourselves and hike up our big girl tights and big boy pants, respectively. 

I still want to know what nitwit told Trump that the economy would recover in six months...   .  I "

As far as "not seeing riots," the situation in Lansing, MI (the state capital) is bad enough.  Gov. Detmer is enduring constant death-threats, and I hope she calls out the Michigan National Guard, tanks and all, and surrounds these mopes.  They would drop their assault rifles and run for the lives (or waddle, after looking at some of them). 

This is pretty sick (hanging a nude Barbie doll in effigy??) 

https://wsbt.com/news/local/fight-breaks-out-during-capitol-protest-over-man-carrying-barbie-doll-hanging-from-a-noose

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I saw that photo of the man with a barbie noosed and hanging from his semi.  Disgusting.  Beyond the denial and refusal to look at facts (i.e. rinse, swallow and regurgitate), this violent mentality is worrisome.  It will boil over.  

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote CRS, DrPH Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 7:45am

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

I saw that photo of the man with a barbie noosed and hanging from his semi.  Disgusting.  Beyond the denial and refusal to look at facts (i.e. rinse, swallow and regurgitate), this violent mentality is worrisome.  It will boil over.  

I agree, WM!  Read up on the term "bugaloo," a Far Right buzz word for a violent uprising against authority:

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/10/795366630/boogaloo-is-the-new-far-right-slang-for-civil-war

I do work with the FBI and local law enforcement, and we are all very worried about this.  The OK City bombing was the result of nut-cases like these.  Be safe, okay?

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When looking at closed systems (such as the various ships with oubreaks) it seems the strike rate is in the 20-30% range.   Is there any hard evidence of the 60-80% rates suggested in this thread?

Yes I know being that it is a novel virus would suggest that everybody might be vulnerable.  However we all know that a percentage of the population is not vulnerable to just about any particular type of virus.    Even illnesses such as smallpox and ebola won't strike everybody, some people just happen to win the genetic lottery, or they are doing something with diet/lifestyle that makes the difference.

Human immunology is a very complex subject, that we are just beginning to understand.

Also, if you believe serological studies, they suggest that the IFR is somewhere between .1-.5%.    Probably closer to .1%.    Also 30-50%+ of the deaths are in nursing homes.   So that significantly drops the IFR for the general public.   Then you have to consider even of the deaths outside of the nursing homes 90% to possibly 99% are people with significant commodities   So if you are not diabetic, obese or have heart disease, or live/work in a nursing home, your odds of dying are probably way way less than even that .1%.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 10:22am

We are, without a doubt, going to see some degree of societal collapse in the next year or two. It won't matter what CAR and CFR  we eventually agree on if we go through enough lockdown-reopening-lockdown cycles to severely compromise supply chains. And the mass exodus of refugees fleeing starvation in countries like Bangladesh will only serve to further stress the economy (or what's left of it) and healthcare systems around the world. I've said it before, but it's not the virus - it's us, and how well we react to it that will determine the outcome, and we're not in a good place to do a good job right now.

Prep on, guys. This is going to be a long, bumpy ride.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote DeepThinker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 10:36am

I was just reading an article about Asian flu/Hong Kong flu pandemics.   When adjusted for population growth, both probably where just about as deadly as Covd19.   For the most part life went along as normal.   In fact flu received very little press coverage, when it did it would be buried on the 20 page of the newspaper.    Amazing how things have changed.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 11:16am

Originally posted by CRS, DrPH CRS, DrPH wrote:

I agree, WM!  Read up on the term "bugaloo," a Far Right buzz word for a violent uprising against authority:

https://www.npr.org/2020/01/10/795366630/boogaloo-is-the-new-far-right-slang-for-civil-war

I do work with the FBI and local law enforcement, and we are all very worried about this.  The OK City bombing was the result of nut-cases like these.  Be safe, okay?

I will never say never here.  That being said I live in a tri-state area that has among the strictest gun control legislation in the nation.   All open carry is illegal here in New York State as it is in New Jersey.  Something our law enforcement takes very seriously.   There will not be any scenes at our State capitol like there are in Michigan.  If they are not arrested on the spot, they'd be fools to pull out even a handgun.  The coroner may be hard pressed to get an accurate count of bullet holes.

Yet, I don't believe that this area is immune from some domestic terrorist with extreme ideas pulling out a semi from his coat and shooting a bunch of innocents to make a point.  Then there's the ones making bombs in their basement...  So yes, I am mindful we're not immune.  I will be particularly mindful after November 3rd.  That is if luck with this virus holds out and I can still feel safe going to the grocery store once a week to 10 days.  But, I'm reviewing problem spots in my preps and I'm gearing up to completely lock down meaning no going out/no deliveries.  This semi-lock down has been a very enlightening experience for me.

I fear for the rest of the country, though.  I really do.  I remain safe and mindful of my safety as always.   I wish you luck and hope.  Stay safe and healthy (and preferably without any bullet holes).  


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 11:23am

Originally posted by jacksdad jacksdad wrote:

We are, without a doubt, going to see some degree of societal collapse in the next year or two. It won't matter what CAR and CFR  we eventually agree on if we go through enough lockdown-reopening-lockdown cycles to severely compromise supply chains. And the mass exodus of refugees fleeing starvation in countries like Bangladesh will only serve to further stress the economy (or what's left of it) and healthcare systems around the world. I've said it before, but it's not the virus - it's us, and how well we react to it that will determine the outcome, and we're not in a good place to do a good job right now.

Prep on, guys. This is going to be a long, bumpy ride.



Roger Wilco on that last part!   It might seem selfish of me but I can't worry about countries like Bangladesh right now.  I'm having a hard enough time working up compassionate worry for what's coming outside of the northeast.  My biggest worry is as people try to emigrate from other states to safer locales in the northeast and to other states that are following CDC guidelines.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote FluMom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 11:37am

Why go to a civil war over a virus...the government would be stupid to do that.  Lots of people dead and I don't agree that people will run...they will become snipers, hit and run like the Viet Kong, or look at Red Dawn (movie).   What you think Americans in uniform are going to kill other Americans over a virus...I think not . It is just better to let people live their lives go back to work and take the consequences of illness.  If you want to stay home and don't have to worry about bills stay home.  

Other wise live and let live...quit trying to control people who do not want to be controlled.  It is very simple!

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You may not like idea of a Civil War, 

But if the anti China Rhetoric,

gets any worse ,

you may have a much bigger War ,

to contend with.

Going sideways:

Wonders if any of the Islamic State players, could be spreading this,

After all America, is at open war with them....

They Hate America.....and the West in general.....

Last i heard ,China wasn't at War with anyone.

Oh they have put over a million Muslims in camps!!!!!!!!!

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 4:56pm

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Other wise live and let live...quit trying to control people who do not want to be controlled.  It is very simple!

People need some controls.  Murder, rape, terrorism are all illegal - that is a form of control.  Intentionally spreading a deadly virus should join them; it might carry a higher death toll than 911.

ERCD
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote WitchMisspelled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 6:25pm

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Other wise live and let live...quit trying to control people who do not want to be controlled.  It is very simple!

Because that's not freedom.  It's anarchy.  Can't call yourself a patriot with this kind of anarchistic rhetoric.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 7:14pm

Originally posted by WitchMisspelled WitchMisspelled wrote:

Originally posted by FluMom FluMom wrote:

Other wise live and let live...quit trying to control people who do not want to be controlled.  It is very simple!

Because that's not freedom.  It's anarchy.  Can't call yourself a patriot with this kind of anarchistic rhetoric.

Curious what kind of rhetoric would you'd call it if say someone wanted to call in the military and tanks on people who had broken no laws, nor were arrested for any reason and were well within their legal rights at both the state and federal levels in their actions? Does that have the ring of freedom to it? Or patriotism?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 7:23pm





There's a big difference ,of having a "Right"

And chosing  when to exercise that "Right"

It takes a certain about of intelligence,

To make that decision,

Which is Somewhat lacking in 

Certain Quarters.....




Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 7:47pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:





There's a big difference ,of having a "Right"

And chosing  when to exercise that "Right"

It takes a certain about of intelligence,

To make that decision,

Which is Somewhat lacking in 

Certain Quarters.....




So in your opinion you should only exercise your rights when everyone else is in agreement and comfortable with you exercising those rights.  How very 1984 of you, you just described groupthink. Which by the way doesn't take any intelligence, just a willingness to go along and conform. And you didn't answer my question as to what kind of rhetoric that is, you just deflected the question.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacksdad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 8:58pm

Carbon - what were you thinking? Don't you know that you have to think of yourself at times like this? Get with the program and stop looking out for everyone else. Jeez....






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 10:28pm

I don't understand why it's "1984"

I have the Right to go outside whenever I want, 

But is that really a good idea when there's a raging pandemic? 

Err not a Great idea,and not when you do are you putting others at risk?

I'm walking down the street letting loose with an ak47 

So you have the Right to stop me? 

The virus is no different than an armed assailant,

Not as far as I can see, 

We all have to abide by certain rules,other wise 

It's the rule of the gun not the rule of law....

You obviously live by a different moral code than me..... 

That's why I live here and would never dream of visiting the USA

Bunch of raving gun-toting lunatics......

What do you expect froa country that can't own look after it's own sick.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 17 2020 at 11:45pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

I don't understand why it's "1984"

I have the Right to go outside whenever I want, 

But is that really a good idea when there's a raging pandemic? 

Err not a Great idea,and not when you do are you putting others at risk?

I'm walking down the street letting loose with an ak47 

So you have the Right to stop me? 

The virus is no different than an armed assailant,

Not as far as I can see, 

We all have to abide by certain rules,other wise 

It's the rule of the gun not the rule of law....

You obviously live by a different moral code than me..... 

That's why I live here and would never dream of visiting the USA

Bunch of raving gun-toting lunatics......

What do you expect froa country that can't own look after it's own sick.....

Of course you don't understand and I'm not surprised in the least. What 's so hilarious is they were well within their rights and within the rules at both the federal, state, county and city level and it doesn't get more rule of law than that and yet you chose that as a platform for your statement.  And your morality is obviously different that's been shown in your postings so many times LOL.

 Yeah it's the wild west here every day all day 24/7, better for you to stay home, cause as you said we all are just a bunch of lunatics here in the US. Amazing that the US leads the world in so many different areas (besides COVID19) and so many want to immigrate here with all our wild west lunatic American ways. But hey not that Australia doesn't lead the world too, you guys have more kangaroos and koala bears than anyone!! And nobody throws a shrimp on the barbie like an Aussie.   

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 12:20am




Leads the World !!!!!!

REALLY IN WHAT 

BULLS..T

Vietnam is doing far far better than the USA......

MIND THATS NO SUPPRISE......

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 1:09am

Space exploration, aerospace and aviation. Medical research, science and technology, the top 3 colleges in the world are in the US, Olympic medals, oh yeah and we are the leading and only world military super power. And we lead the world in carbon emission reductions. LOL

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (3) Thanks(3)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 1:56am

All that and you still can't provide universal Health care for your citizens....

And your great country has just been bought to it's knees by a virus,

that your Idiot of a leader call FAKE NEWS.....Sad very Sad,

Just keep telling yourselfs how great you are, we not listening.....dumb and dumber......

 Natural selection in action.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 3:58am

Despite his unnecessarily rude expression, Carbon is right.  

I too would never visit the violent, money grabbing USA.  I will never get as many chances to get rich over here, we have fewer opportunities and higher taxes.  But prefer it more than I could express in words.  Just reading the posts here horrifies me.  Open carry - because you only feel safe if you do?  Muggings for food? Americans over here begging good samaritans not to call an ambulance - because they can't believe there is no charge for saving their lives? AND THIS IS NORMAL???  My daughter came in crying a couple of months ago, because an American friend could not get surgery for a brain tumour which would eventually kill her.    

If forced to move I would chose Cuba before the US

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 4:01am

Yes you are the greatest military superpower!  Military is not everything - North Korea believes that - not I.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote carbon20 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 4:07am

You have the most sophisticated intelligence (misnomer)in the World,

But your administration could not, would not believe that a pandemic was a coming....

Nothing to crow about here, 

Lions led by a HEEL SPUR.....totting idiot.....

Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth.πŸ––

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AI Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 1:45pm

Originally posted by carbon20 carbon20 wrote:

All that and you still can't provide universal Health care for your citizens....

And your great country has just been bought to it's knees by a virus,

that your Idiot of a leader call FAKE NEWS.....Sad very Sad,

Just keep telling yourselfs how great you are, we not listening.....dumb and dumber......

 Natural selection in action.....

Well socialism isn't really how we do things here in the US of A and universal health care is no exception, seems most just don't like it. And don't look now but AU is on it's economic knees as a result of the virus even though you shut down so amazingly well, of course your economy wasn't doing so hot in 2019 anyway, while the rest of the world's was.  And you do know that whole hoax thing was debunked months ago right? Maybe GOOGLE it and have someone read it to you. And here's a pro tip don't just read or have read to you the first website and believe them, mix it up a little the truth is out there.

 Curious how you always gravitate to US politics, despite the fact I never mention politics once in this thread or rarely ever for that matter. It's like your go to thing, of course you don't have much to go to anyway in any regard, you have to work within your limitations.  And I understand that. 

And by WE you mean you and the groupthink of course. LOL  Stay safe, wash your hands and drink some water.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Technophobe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 1:59pm

I am neither American, nor Australian, but Australia does not seem to have bigger economic problems than America*, neither is it heavily socialist.   You make it sound like North Korea, yet the USA is more like them than Australia - their leaders are "great pals" too.

New Zealand has a socialist government at the moment.  It is doing better than either.  The UK has a right-wing covernment and one of the worst covid19 problems in the world.

Frankly, being left or right is immaterial to a non political virus.  We are doing worse, because the government made mistakes at the beginning.  Being right-wing was not what made us worse.

Having a system that cares for the people, the truth and the science makes all the difference.

Again, Carbon could have put things a bit more politely.




*Under current problems, which are wrecking economies across the globe, it seems to be doing rather better.

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