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Online Discussion: Tracking new emerging diseases and the next pandemic since 2005; Coronavirus COVID-19 Pandemic Discussion Forum.

Ultimate population reduction?

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EdwinSm, View Drop Down
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    Posted: May 18 2020 at 2:08am

Will this corvid-19 pandemic lead to a general world-wide population reduction?


It seems that we humans had a great difficulty in keeping social distancing, and some countries have very weak structures to support those in need (eg in lock-down).  When the beaches are open people flock to them, when shopping centres open we just have to go there!   When stadiums open to the public I suspect that people will flock there as well.     People seem to forget that along with their "rights" the have "responsibilities" (something the Bible calls the "royal rule").


I can't help but wonder if the only way humans will be able to properly control this virus is by accepting a drastic reduction in population because we cannot (as a whole) manage social distancing for long times, unless we live in isolated communities.  


Spain and Italy, both hard hit in the early stages, were showing a population decline before Corvid19, so this will just accelerate the decline.  

Also many eastern European countries were facing population decline (although they do not seem to have been hit as hard as countries to the west of Germany).   

The UK has lost, according to the official numbers, an amount equal to three months population growth, so they are hardly in decline.    And the USA, with its higher population growth, has lost an amount equal to one month's growth.  [To put this into perspective Chuck's estimate of 1 million US deaths would be slightly above the annual population increase - so no significant population decline.]  

Brazil, the worst hit in South America, also has a very high population growth rate so their official death rate is only equivalent to two days growth.  If their hospital system gets overloaded will they start seeing a death rate that overtakes their high birth rate?


I find it hard to work out how this is going, because it seems that many countries with high populations (like China and Russia) have been economical with the truth.  For example, from another hard hit country, one estimate out of Tehran University was that the Sars-cov-2 virus was expected to kill 3½ million people, but they have only reported less than 7.000 deaths.   


I do not expect official statistics to show a major population decline.  But I wonder, if with all the other factors (increase suicides, people not seeking treatment for other medical conditions, lack of work with inadequate social networks of support etc) will lead to this keep on burning through population centres until they get a lot smaller (either people dying, or moving out to smaller more rural settings).  

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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 5:57am

EdwinSM-I expect some African countries to collapse. Covid19 comes on top of other healthproblems, climate change. A food-crisis is on its way. [url]https://www.fsinplatform.org/report/global-report-food-crises-2020/[/url] In 2016 108 million people faced a food-crisis-in 2019 it was already 135 million-this year it could double to 260 million-most in Africa. 

Sub-Saharan countries like Mali, Niger, South Sudan will face desertification, and caused a.o. by Covid19 and war logistic problems, lack of people for a harvest. 

Also (South) Asia, Latin America may face serious problems/starvation. It will be a matter of time before "warlords" take over the weakest of countries-or groups like "IS". If there are precious minerals, uranium, gold, oil some states may show interest in a powerstruggle (in lots of former French colonies there is a link between Paris and local regimes. [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-B%C3%A9del_Bokassa[/url] and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-B%C3%A9del_Bokassa#Foreign_support[/url] This "Emperor of Central Africa" did see himself as the African Napoleon 1.

Unemployment rates of-in some countries-close to 50%-will bring political instabillity. Also in "modern western states" that may become a risk-with possibly civil war (and behind the scenes major powers trying to gain influence). (The Spanish Civil War was between hitler/mussolini-backed by most of European democracies-and "the left" popular front/socialist movement (seen as pro-Stalin, therefore repressed by the "democracies".)

Covid19 will be impossible to get under control in the "third world", other diseases may soon also get out of control. Covid19 and Ebola, Measles, Polio, Dengue, Malaria etc will turn into a deadly mix. [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/05/floods-and-landslides-in-kenya-have.html[/url] and then there are the locusts....

I expect lots of people will try to escape-when the alternative is to die-in their third world country. And escaping is often deadly as well....


We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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Dutch Josh View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dutch Josh Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: May 18 2020 at 9:51am

After this [url]http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/05/typhoon-vongfong-leaves-trail-of.html[/url] this [url]https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-amphan-to-send-massive-storm-surge-into-eastern-india-and-bangladesh[/url] is on its way to [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolkata[/url]  (India Urban region over 14 million)and [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chittagong[/url] (Bangla Desh-Urban region 4 million). 

From [url]https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-amphan-to-send-massive-storm-surge-into-eastern-india-and-bangladesh[/url];

The tragic history of storm surge in the northern Bay of Bengal

Some of the most destructive and deadly cyclones in world history have struck the northern Bay of Bengal. An 1876 cyclone brought the highest known storm surge to Bangladesh—13.0 meters (43 feet). The mighty cyclone killed an estimated 200,000 people. The deadliest storm in world history, the 1970 Bhola Cyclone of 1970, killed an estimated 300,000 – 500,000 when it made landfall in Bangladesh along the Meghna River Estuary near Bhola Island on November 12, 1970. The cyclone brought a storm surge estimated at 10.4 meters (34 feet) to the coast.

Just last year, the Bay of Bengal experienced an intense May cyclone: Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Fani, which made landfall in eastern India in the state of Odisha on May 2 with sustained winds of 155 mph. Fani killed 89 people and did $8.1 billion in damage in India and Bangladesh, according to insurance broker Aon, making it one of the top-five costliest Indian cyclones on record. Fani’s landfall to the western side of the bay meant that the storm surge just to the right of the center was less than a landfall at the top of the bay would have produced.

DJ-Covid19 is not under control in the India-Bangla Desh-Nepal region-this storm will worsen the situation.

We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.
~Albert Einstein
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